Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2220
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This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States cuts rates by more than 50 bps at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. If the Federal Reserve issues an emergency rate cut prior to the meeting and then cuts rates again at the scheduled September meeting, the question will resolve as the size of the cut issued at the September meeting only.\n\n- The question will resolve based on the official policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, rather than market expectations or speculation.", "post_id": 27487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423140.660452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423140.660452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2852278720969236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0814176464278084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23091727463553763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3705988023494522, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0806456665567371, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9678257346156645, 1.2233893656917498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.712310000716739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2536380807761582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423140.699688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423140.699688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8613868640996367, 0.13861313590036323 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27486, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-50-bps-at-their-september-meeting", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.170780Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.943569Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27486, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.170780Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States cuts rates by 50 bps at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. If the Federal Reserve issues an emergency rate cut prior to the meeting and then cuts rates again at the scheduled September meeting, the question will resolve as the size of the cut issued at the September meeting only.\n\n- The question will resolve based on the official policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, rather than market expectations or speculation.", "post_id": 27486, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724422714.675405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724422714.675405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.325 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.675, 0.325 ], "means": [ 0.31759981353228034 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45717584211376655, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 1.8389489928958105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9709756417428488, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0543160468069168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48402848923834074, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -62.14883767462702, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -62.14883767462702 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724422714.708231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724422714.708231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7675259034373464, 0.2324740965626536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27485, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-25-bps-at-their-september-meeting", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:27.978817Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.244982Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27485, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:27.978817Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States cuts rates by 25 bps at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. If the Federal Reserve issues an emergency rate cut prior to the meeting and then cuts rates again at the scheduled September meeting, the question will resolve as the size of the cut issued at the September meeting only.\n\n- The question will resolve based on the official policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, rather than market expectations or speculation.", "post_id": 27485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423137.383029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6756666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7666666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423137.383029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6756666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7666666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6697225980648824 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8288622973498523, 1.1403842715634909, 1.2282701289894635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5957301539175838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423137.413449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423137.413449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30262847155508754, 0.6973715284449125 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27484, "title": "Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-fed-hold-rates-steady-at-their-september-meeting", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:27.713558Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.690777Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27484, "title": "Will the Fed hold rates steady at their September meeting?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:27.713558Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States holds rates steady at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”.", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. If the Federal Reserve issues an emergency rate cut prior to the meeting and then cuts rates again at the scheduled September meeting, the question will resolve as the size of the cut issued at the September meeting only.\n\n- The question will resolve based on the official policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, rather than market expectations or speculation.", "post_id": 27484, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423093.193715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423093.193715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3546309299897665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43456290097694367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 1.0337991717578503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 1.6980965657768823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8778985169880916, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7953569814754423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.19921907598878902, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.5527304565788491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423093.238568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423093.238568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7422971473223893, 0.2577028526776107 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27453, "title": "Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?", "short_title": "Bangladesh elections in 6 months?", "url_title": "Bangladesh elections in 6 months?", "slug": "bangladesh-elections-in-6-months", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-20T10:44:10.006269Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.274919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27453, "title": "Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?", "created_at": "2024-08-20T10:44:10.006269Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-26T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-26T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-06T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-05T02:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-08T02:28:38.006182Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Bangladesh, within a context of [democratic backsliding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_by_country#Bangladesh) and claimed Indian influence, a popular uprising of millions of people in the streets of Dhaka ejected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5.\n\n[Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2006/yunus/biographical/) was called to lead a caretaker government, with tasks including organizing fresh Parliamentary elections.\n\nWill they take place within six months of Hasina's ouster?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if elections to Jatiya Sangsad, the Parliament of Bangladesh, are held on or before February 5, 2025, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.\n\nIf there are no reports that this has occurred before February 5, 2025 (regardless of the reason), this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The reference date for the election shall be the last day where votes may be cast, after which counting begins. So early/advance/mail-in votes happening prior to that date do not count.", "post_id": 27453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735664566.82438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735664566.82438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0530614663061001 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.988687332889193, 1.6939760671310424, 1.1068779256603858, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.4214801054065146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"start_time": 1728289097.321031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289097.321031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9764398473151036, 0.02356015268489638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Bangladesh, within a context of [democratic backsliding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_by_country#Bangladesh) and claimed Indian influence, a popular uprising of millions of people in the streets of Dhaka ejected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5.\n\n[Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2006/yunus/biographical/) was called to lead a caretaker government, with tasks including organizing fresh Parliamentary elections.\n\nWill they take place within six months of Hasina's ouster?" }, { "id": 27447, "title": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-either-of-donald-trumps-campaign-managers-get-fired-resign-or-otherwise-leave-their-positions-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-20T01:17:45.732910Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.864778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign: \n\n- Chris LaCivita \n- Susie Wiles\n\nIf there is no such report before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The addition of a new co-campaign manager will not affect resolution.\n\nIn addition to resigning or otherwise being terminated as campaign manager, credible reports that LaCivita or Wiles have been demoted to other positions within the Trump Campaign, such as senior advisor, will also resolve this question as Yes, since this question is asking whether they remain as campaign manager.", "post_id": 27447, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423261.631612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423261.631612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4951225402922681 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.12377442688140071, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8006262589549378, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9393837758251564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3415166921992423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5165517535521387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6756690407521562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0420146125852783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423261.668098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423261.668098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6183538397653032, 0.38164616023469683 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"" }, { "id": 27446, "title": "Will Kamala Harris say \"artificial intelligence\" or \"AI\" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kamala-harris-say-artificial-intelligence-or-ai-in-her-2024-democratic-national-convention-keynote-speech", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-20T01:17:45.536452Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.571227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": 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"yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**\n> \n> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.\n> \n> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company.<br/>\n> ...\n> \n> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.\n> \n> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.\n> \n> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.\n> \n> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.”<br/>\n> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Greg Brockman returns to work at OpenAI (in either 2024 or 2025) following his leave of absence, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). This question resolves as **No** if, following his leave of absence, Brockman exits OpenAI without returning, or does not return by January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27441, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731933069.414875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731933069.414875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8924788438385652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2909169046675799, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.17269506268784 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.03738017476958668, "peer_score": 8.421421229260583, "coverage": 0.5023904148501306, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9929710278674888, "spot_peer_score": -34.6592993197485, "baseline_archived_score": -0.03738017476958668, "peer_archived_score": 8.421421229260583, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -34.6592993197485 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287319.71275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287319.71275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8531952437174088, 0.14680475628259113 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**\n> \n> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.\n> \n> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company.<br/>\n> ...\n> \n> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.\n> \n> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.\n> \n> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.\n> \n> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.”<br/>\n> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)" }, { "id": 27440, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?", "short_title": "iPhone 40W Fast Charging at September Event?", "url_title": "iPhone 40W Fast Charging at September Event?", "slug": "iphone-40w-fast-charging-at-september-event", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-19T23:12:42.008417Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.033335Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "open_time": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/): \n\n>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.\n\n>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models are capable of up to 27W peak charging speeds with an appropriate USB-C power adapter, while official MagSafe chargers from Apple and authorized third parties can wirelessly charge the iPhone 15 models at up to 15W. All four iPhone 15 models can charge up to 50% in around 30 minutes with a 20W or higher power adapter, which is the same as Apple's previous iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 models.\n\nApple's highly-anticipated launch event is [expected](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/iphone-16-launch-apple-september-event-to-also-debut-watch-series-10-airpods-4-heres-what-we-know/articleshow/112626834.cms?from=mdr) to be on September 10, 2024. It is widely expected to launch the iPhone 16, which will feature a rumored four new models, which could have larger displays than current iPhone models, faster processors, and improved AI features. \n\nAccording to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/07/16/apple-iphone-16-pro-design-upgrade-promises-key-feature-boost-report-says-iphone-16-pro-max/), this would roughly double the speed at which the phone could be charged. At the current fastest charging speed of 27W, going from zero to 50% takes 30 minutes, while a 40W charger would do it in 15 minutes. A few Android phones already feature faster changing speeds, such as the Samsung Galaxy S24 at 45W, the Xiaomi 14 Pro at options of up to 120W, and the Motorola Edge 40 Pro at 125W.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the end of its September 2024 event (the expected iPhone 16 event), Apple officially announces the existence of an iPhone model that supports 40 watts (or higher) charging. If this does not occur by the end of its September 2024 event, or if no iPhone 16 Apple event is held before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Either wired or wireless charging will count.\n\nThe official announcement can come from any of Apple's channels including but not limited to: a product launch announcement (such as the [expected](https://wccftech.com/iphone-16-launch-event-in-september/) Apple event possibly on September 10, 2024), press releases, announcements on Apple's official social media accounts, or information published on Apple's website indicating that 40W or higher iPhone charging is supported.\n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information will not count.\n\nAlthough a Yes resolution will most likely come from an announcement of a new upcoming iPhone model, possibly called the iPhone 16, if Apple instead announces that an existing model of iPhone has been updated to support the faster charging, that will count as well.\n\nPlease note that the iPhone with ≥40W charging need not be for sale for the question to resolve as **Yes**. Resolution is based on the announcement or publication of the information by Apple.\n\nVague statements such as \"faster charging\" without specifying wattage will not count.", "post_id": 27440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725960486.169302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725960486.169302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0676923053196407 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.576412817735141, 5.881357618951125, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.4955742943419901, 2.377101584268659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07297864542578526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12213964696863193, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007730636177887338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010256932132203396, 0.03372481884086813, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.030612059041402177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06807997329511349, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006774755525143019, 0.0, 0.12191964179870568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18196907061562104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05536264726386741, 0.0910604438880782, 0.13741967586162077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1258632791308913 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0758572390412691, "coverage": 0.9616190936073229, "baseline_score": -63.578321073903616, "spot_peer_score": -22.77473722140088, "peer_archived_score": 0.0758572390412691, "baseline_archived_score": -63.578321073903616, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.77473722140088 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725905651.245881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725905651.245881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30549476914870577, 0.6945052308512942 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/): \n\n>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.\n\n>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models are capable of up to 27W peak charging speeds with an appropriate USB-C power adapter, while official MagSafe chargers from Apple and authorized third parties can wirelessly charge the iPhone 15 models at up to 15W. All four iPhone 15 models can charge up to 50% in around 30 minutes with a 20W or higher power adapter, which is the same as Apple's previous iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 models.\n\nApple's highly-anticipated launch event is [expected](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/iphone-16-launch-apple-september-event-to-also-debut-watch-series-10-airpods-4-heres-what-we-know/articleshow/112626834.cms?from=mdr) to be on September 10, 2024. It is widely expected to launch the iPhone 16, which will feature a rumored four new models, which could have larger displays than current iPhone models, faster processors, and improved AI features. \n\nAccording to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/07/16/apple-iphone-16-pro-design-upgrade-promises-key-feature-boost-report-says-iphone-16-pro-max/), this would roughly double the speed at which the phone could be charged. At the current fastest charging speed of 27W, going from zero to 50% takes 30 minutes, while a 40W charger would do it in 15 minutes. A few Android phones already feature faster changing speeds, such as the Samsung Galaxy S24 at 45W, the Xiaomi 14 Pro at options of up to 120W, and the Motorola Edge 40 Pro at 125W." }, { "id": 27415, "title": "Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2030?", "slug": "chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-19T21:17:53.512745Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T11:21:04.589840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27415, "title": "Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-08-19T21:17:53.512745Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-25T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, for many decades. This acquisition process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, however, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\"—i.e., is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\n\nFor further reading on this topic, see:\n\n- Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press: [The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/)\n- Council on Foreign Relations: [Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan](https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan)\n- Defense News: [How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/05/07/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n___\n_This question is based on @michaelchen's question '[Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/)'_", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of events 1-3 occurs, and 4 also occurs. \n\n1. There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, including areas of the current territory (\"free area\" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data of the ROC.<br/>\n2. There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.<br/>\n3. There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC and citing evidence that the government of the majority of the ROC is de facto controlled by China, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. Articles which, in the judgment of Metaculus, are hyperbole or otherwise do not make a strong case that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC will not count.\n4. There are no export controls or immigration restrictions in either direction, from the PRC to the ROC or vice versa. (This condition being true is indicative of reasonably strong politico-economic integration.)", "fine_print": "A peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan would result in this question resolving Yes.\n\nArticles must be written and published by different sources and must reach their conclusions largely independently, publishing the same article at a separate news outlet or several news outlets reporting statements made by the same individual or group of individuals will not count as separate articles.", "post_id": 27415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758215160.740979, "end_time": 1758318845.52354, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758215160.740979, "end_time": 1758318845.52354, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.2514714193818211 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.14237876432026275, 0.14144204034947788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7332289461978553, 0.6929825785475864, 0.37461738817052787, 0.524358034185015, 0.1494220410952148, 2.152613409125799, 0.2387745119184577, 0.0, 1.2413825456934657, 1.2992090291780354, 0.38238770670973266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4700096739574802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.5505289351792777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21810592821876404, 0.39529343588810895, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26102326165716355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.5949610715209219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.286995633379881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8043908332778769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39962148407489445 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290004.279359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290004.279359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9275082097432501, 0.07249179025674996 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, for many decades. This acquisition process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, however, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\"—i.e., is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\n\nFor further reading on this topic, see:\n\n- Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press: [The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/)\n- Council on Foreign Relations: [Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan](https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan)\n- Defense News: [How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/05/07/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n___\n_This question is based on @michaelchen's question '[Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/)'_" }, { "id": 27353, "title": "If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?", "short_title": "Trump Ukraine War Resolution", "url_title": "Trump Ukraine War Resolution", "slug": "trump-ukraine-war-resolution", "author_id": 198325, "author_username": "anna.k.hennig", "coauthors": [ { "id": 197092, "username": "pashka24" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-18T15:34:03.116399Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T20:11:43.450827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T05:03:49.258745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T05:03:49.258745Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27353, "title": "If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?", "created_at": "2024-08-18T15:34:03.116399Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [If Re-elected, Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/If-Reelected-Will-Trump-End-the-War-in-Ukraine) \n\nOn February 24, 2022, Russia [invaded](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine) Ukraine, marking a significant escalation of ongoing tensions between the nations rooted in Ukraine's 2014 [Euromaidan revolution](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-Maidan-protest-movement) and Russia's subsequent [annexation of Crimea](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-crisis-in-Crimea-and-eastern-Ukraine). The invasion prompted [widespread international condemnation](https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12407.doc.htm) and led to [unprecedented sanctions against Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659).\n \nDiplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have included [early negotiations in Belarus and Turkey](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html), and more recently, mediation attempts by countries like [China](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/business/ukraine-kuleba-china-russia-war.html). Proposed resolutions have often focused on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality for Ukraine. However, both Russia and Ukraine remain firm in their conditions for peace, with Russia [demanding](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/14/putin-says-ukraine-must-withdraw-troops-and-end-nato-bid-for-peace-talks-to-begin_6674805_4.html) recognition of its annexation of four Ukrainian territories and an end to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, and Ukraine [insisting on the restoration of its pre-2014 borders](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20469), making a lasting peace agreement challenging.\n\nAmid these ongoing efforts, former US President Donald Trump [has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected in 2024](https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-trump-says-as-president-hed-settle-ukraine-war-within-24-hours/0BCA9F18-D3BF-43DA-9220-C13587EAEDF2). He asserts that his negotiating skills and relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would enable him to broker a swift peace deal. However, [critics question the feasibility of such a claim](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/), given the complexity of the conflict and Trump's foreign policy record. They also raise questions about the nature of the peace he might pursue and whether it would align with the interests of Ukraine and its Western allies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in the 2024 election and, before January 20, 2029, Russia and Ukraine have signed a formal bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement, which Trump can fairly be credited with facilitating. \n\nTrump will be credited with facilitating the end of the war if any of the following criteria are met:\n\n- The US, under the Trump administration, hosts and/or leads the negotiations that result in a peace agreement/ceasefire;\n- Trump meets (either in person or virtually) with the heads of state of Ukraine and Russia in a trilateral summit that results in a peace/ceasefire agreement;\n- The heads of state of Russia and/or Ukraine, their representatives, or government officials authorized to speak on behalf of their governments publicly acknowledge that private talks with Trump influenced negotiations;\n- Trump is awarded at least one of these prestigious international peace prizes for his contributions to ending the war in Ukraine: the Nobel Peace Prize, the Right Livelihood Award, the Félix Houphouët-Boigny Peace Prize, Luxembourg Peace Prize, and the Sunhak Peace Prize.\n\nIf no bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement is signed — or none of the above criteria to confirm Trump’s role in this are met — before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Trump loses the 2024 US presidential election, this question resolves as **Annulled**.\n\nA bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement must begin at any point during Trump's presidency and stand for at least 30 days. (The latest possible ceasefire/peace agreement, by this criterion, begins before the new US President is inaugurated on January 20, 2029 and stands through February 19, 2029.) A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no ceasefire or peace agreement has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by February 19, 2029. The agreement must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question.", "post_id": 27353, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758226293.061803, "end_time": 1758389125.029, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758226293.061803, "end_time": 1758389125.029, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5592275794932187 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1529072034917331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20409162864023808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1661712750592605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016218528311726184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25154229098625835, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35741224945526073, 0.0, 0.7947609414393936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002443062932311581, 0.12211213542887514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21896889103996162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4008021578256057, 0.1130965568839125, 0.0, 0.040746209222785025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7455345713316219, 0.0, 0.12341063846813607, 0.0, 0.4274130675954733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5399865389175539, 0.0, 0.08934446028684764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35814343667175713, 0.04145990502278528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.986808055938832, 0.006379262637396644, 0.0, 0.23597525689339172, 0.05416656778952044, 1.7787444356419067, 0.5176998110593352, 0.13172953217580627, 0.16454035208274115, 0.0, 0.4902399486604175, 0.0, 0.3756459167785117, 0.5041083170110023, 0.0, 0.1473706085496518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009464057867442102, 0.8985875475237362, 0.025725976524552732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013550184787389273, 0.6609726698816549, 0.0, 0.6219464607129316, 0.007309381265023569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04260175626156937 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288820.088134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288820.088134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7619942065429208, 0.23800579345707923 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 338, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [If Re-elected, Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/If-Reelected-Will-Trump-End-the-War-in-Ukraine) \n\nOn February 24, 2022, Russia [invaded](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine) Ukraine, marking a significant escalation of ongoing tensions between the nations rooted in Ukraine's 2014 [Euromaidan revolution](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-Maidan-protest-movement) and Russia's subsequent [annexation of Crimea](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-crisis-in-Crimea-and-eastern-Ukraine). The invasion prompted [widespread international condemnation](https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12407.doc.htm) and led to [unprecedented sanctions against Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659).\n \nDiplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have included [early negotiations in Belarus and Turkey](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html), and more recently, mediation attempts by countries like [China](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/business/ukraine-kuleba-china-russia-war.html). Proposed resolutions have often focused on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality for Ukraine. However, both Russia and Ukraine remain firm in their conditions for peace, with Russia [demanding](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/14/putin-says-ukraine-must-withdraw-troops-and-end-nato-bid-for-peace-talks-to-begin_6674805_4.html) recognition of its annexation of four Ukrainian territories and an end to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, and Ukraine [insisting on the restoration of its pre-2014 borders](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20469), making a lasting peace agreement challenging.\n\nAmid these ongoing efforts, former US President Donald Trump [has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected in 2024](https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-trump-says-as-president-hed-settle-ukraine-war-within-24-hours/0BCA9F18-D3BF-43DA-9220-C13587EAEDF2). He asserts that his negotiating skills and relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would enable him to broker a swift peace deal. However, [critics question the feasibility of such a claim](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/), given the complexity of the conflict and Trump's foreign policy record. They also raise questions about the nature of the peace he might pursue and whether it would align with the interests of Ukraine and its Western allies." }, { "id": 27350, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?", "short_title": "Nuclear detonation in Ukraine Before 2026?", "url_title": "Nuclear detonation in Ukraine Before 2026?", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-18T01:00:26.262525Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:34:28.942880Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27350, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-08-18T01:00:26.262525Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T13:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T13:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before January 1, 2026. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorized](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will be defined as the [internationally-recognized boundaries prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including Ukraine's 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). Ukrainian-held territory will include any territory (including in Russia) occupied by Ukrainian troops according to the Institute for the Study of War at [this link](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").\n\nExternal territory occupied by Ukrainian troops includes any category marked by ISW as occupied by Ukrainian forces, including but not limited to: claimed, assessed, and reported.", "post_id": 27350, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758188057.904513, "end_time": 1758567425.748, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758188057.904513, "end_time": 1758567425.748, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.06838184211374437 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.35947454415787, 0.9486472581050646, 0.09551526241989404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5542907841737343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45337725660330125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7057676323246797 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289562.629836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289562.629836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9896269265651123, 0.010373073434887706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 327, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)" }, { "id": 27346, "title": "Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024?", "short_title": "SAF Participation in Geneva Peace Talks", "url_title": "SAF Participation in Geneva Peace Talks", "slug": "saf-participation-in-geneva-peace-talks", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-16T16:29:02.532968Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.098841Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27346, "title": "Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-16T16:29:02.532968Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T12:41:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T12:41:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, a new round of peace talks aimed at addressing Sudan's ongoing conflict began in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks are led by the United States with support from Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, and are scheduled to last up to ten days, potentially concluding on August 24, 2024.\nThe talks aim to achieve a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. This follows previous rounds of negotiations held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which did not result in a lasting agreement.\n\nAs of the start of the talks on August 14, the SAF had not sent a delegation to Geneva. The SAF previously announced it would not attend, citing the RSF's failure to implement agreements made in Saudi Arabia. The RSF has sent a delegation to Geneva but has not actively participated in the negotiations as of the talks' commencement.\n\nThe participation of both the SAF and RSF is considered necessary for substantive progress towards a ceasefire and improved humanitarian access in Sudan. This question focuses specifically on whether the SAF will change its stance and send a delegation to participate in the current round of talks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, by 23:59:59 UTC on August 24, 2024:\n\n1. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) sends an official delegation to the Geneva peace talks, AND\n\n2. This delegation's participation is publicly acknowledged by Tom Perriello, the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, via an announcement on the official Twitter/X account @USSESudan.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the above conditions are not met by the specified deadline.", "fine_print": "1. If the talks conclude earlier than August 24, 2024, the resolution date will be adjusted to the final day of the talks.\n\n2. If the talks are extended beyond August 24, 2024, the resolution criteria will still apply to the original end date of August 24, 2024.\n\n3. Only official announcements from the @USSESudan account will be considered for resolution. Retweets or unofficial statements will not be sufficient.\n\n4. If the @USSESudan account becomes unavailable or is renamed, an equivalent official U.S. government source acknowledging SAF participation will be accepted.\n\n5. The physical presence of SAF representatives in Geneva is required for a \"Yes\" resolution. Virtual participation will not be considered sufficient.\n\n6. In case of any ambiguity, I will make a final determination based on the best available information from reliable sources.\n\n7. The possibility of a second round of talks at a later date does not affect the resolution of this question, which pertains only to the current round ending August 24, 2024.\n\n8. The SAF's participation status will be evaluated independently of the RSF's current status (delegation present but not actively participating).", "post_id": 27346, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724528054.210559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724528054.210559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.046228769428616645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7277212189012763, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.861562640088563, "coverage": 0.9957279252404843, "baseline_score": 72.38393093360605, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": -1.861562640088563, "baseline_archived_score": 72.38393093360605, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724528054.248255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724528054.248255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, a new round of peace talks aimed at addressing Sudan's ongoing conflict began in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks are led by the United States with support from Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, and are scheduled to last up to ten days, potentially concluding on August 24, 2024.\nThe talks aim to achieve a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. This follows previous rounds of negotiations held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which did not result in a lasting agreement.\n\nAs of the start of the talks on August 14, the SAF had not sent a delegation to Geneva. The SAF previously announced it would not attend, citing the RSF's failure to implement agreements made in Saudi Arabia. The RSF has sent a delegation to Geneva but has not actively participated in the negotiations as of the talks' commencement.\n\nThe participation of both the SAF and RSF is considered necessary for substantive progress towards a ceasefire and improved humanitarian access in Sudan. This question focuses specifically on whether the SAF will change its stance and send a delegation to participate in the current round of talks." }, { "id": 27341, "title": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump's campaign managers leave before Oct 1?", "url_title": "Trump's campaign managers leave before Oct 1?", "slug": "trumps-campaign-managers-leave-before-oct-1", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-16T15:02:42.492473Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.697154Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 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"html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27341, "title": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-16T15:02:42.492473Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign: \n\n- Chris LaCivita \n- Susie Wiles\n\nIf there is no such report before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The addition of a new co-campaign manager will not affect resolution.\n\nIn addition to resigning or otherwise being terminated as campaign manager, credible reports that LaCivita or Wiles have been demoted to other positions within the Trump Campaign, such as senior advisor, will also resolve this question as Yes, since this question is asking whether they remain as campaign manager.", "post_id": 27341, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754911.997063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754911.997063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013376068218542633 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.225862232252865, 5.980107263605596, 1.7170899013402883, 0.23673422339445704, 0.13819591384238927, 0.07385818716358705, 0.14291661183567161, 0.0, 0.051813547496738235, 0.011260426236417237, 0.004605746085745568, 0.008178451525312864, 0.0, 0.011393233754605896, 0.0, 0.05855452119268713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038503157754529835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10678389500756706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045849597469312386, 0.0, 0.0014745534528646544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014035409334259398 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.388598102612622, "coverage": 0.9999931859658174, "baseline_score": 74.67655995707753, "spot_peer_score": 12.306530669801345, "peer_archived_score": 15.388598102612622, "baseline_archived_score": 74.67655995707753, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.306530669801345 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754912.045302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754912.045302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 443, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"" }, { "id": 27316, "title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve \"yes\" in ambiguous cases)", "short_title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035?", "url_title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035?", "slug": "will-china-have-the-largest-ai-model-in-2035", "author_id": 196604, "author_username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-15T13:43:41.398800Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.376067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 9, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 27316, "title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve \"yes\" in ambiguous cases)", "created_at": "2024-08-15T13:43:41.398800Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-19T13:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-19T13:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the moment, the leading US AI companies perform larger AI training runs than top US tech companies. If that changes and AI turns out to be highly important militarily and economically, the balance of power between the US and China could significantly shift in China's favor. Further, many AI safety and AI governance researchers have suggested a close AI race between the US and China will lead to corners being cut with safety by both countries, increasing the chance that a catastrophically dangerous model is trained and released. If China were to overtake the US by 2035, from its currently trailing position, that would almost certainly mean we are heading for at least some period where the two countries are very close together in terms of the size and quality of their leading edge models, which could lead to a race dynamic between them.", "resolution_criteria": "\"Largest model in 2035\"=Largest model trained as of end of day 31st of December 2035. \n\nI will measure model size in terms of the FLOP used to train them (see here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation#:~:text=In%20the%20context%20of%20artificial,subtraction%2C%20multiplication%2C%20or%20division.) In looking for figures on model size I will first check what Our World in Data and Epoch have to say, and then look further if neither of them provide relevant figures. In cases where I judge it to be ambiguous whether the largest Chinese model as of end 2035 is bigger than the largest US model, I will resolve this \"yes\" (since I am mostly interested in whether China will at least catch up with the US).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753139164.702493, "end_time": 1759790403.575125, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753139164.702493, "end_time": 1759790403.575125, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.32025767660660814 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09153308219070486, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11063081165355146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9662731730450209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288432.712958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288432.712958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9104264495409652, 0.08957355045903481 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the moment, the leading US AI companies perform larger AI training runs than top US tech companies. If that changes and AI turns out to be highly important militarily and economically, the balance of power between the US and China could significantly shift in China's favor. Further, many AI safety and AI governance researchers have suggested a close AI race between the US and China will lead to corners being cut with safety by both countries, increasing the chance that a catastrophically dangerous model is trained and released. If China were to overtake the US by 2035, from its currently trailing position, that would almost certainly mean we are heading for at least some period where the two countries are very close together in terms of the size and quality of their leading edge models, which could lead to a race dynamic between them." }, { "id": 27313, "title": "Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?", "short_title": "GOP vote share in Texas in POTUS 2024", "url_title": "GOP vote share in Texas in POTUS 2024", "slug": "gop-vote-share-in-texas-in-potus-2024", "author_id": 159168, "author_username": "julleht", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-15T08:59:21.984059Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.915734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27313, "title": "Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-08-15T08:59:21.984059Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:25:14.370890Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in [2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas), while in [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.\n\n[Linear trend](https://i.imgur.com/0OybLvV.png), taking into account all the presidential elections since 2000, suggests that the Republican candidate would be close to the 50% mark in 2024 elections.\n\nAdditional consideration is the strength of third party candidates this cycle. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [has polled](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/texas/) in mid to high single digits in Texas, potentially stripping the Republican candidate of a majority of votes in the state. Ross Perot managed the feat in both [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) elections, though his vote share especially in 1992 was markedly higher.\n\nReceiving under 50% of the vote in Texas – especially if it happens without a sizeable third party candidate – would mark another milestone in the journey of the Lone Star State towards being a battleground for future presidential cycles, even if the Republican candidate ends up winning the state in 2024, as is all but sure.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"yes\" if the nominated Republican presidential candidate receives over 50% of the vote as per [the official election results published by the Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/presidential.shtml) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on those results. If the number is under 50%, the question will resolve as \"no.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730616120.562852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730616120.562852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9453207714814423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28297426521193625, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 1.0518145414983018, 0.26629006976841835, 0.04091934181495329, 0.6722385341821173, 0.0, 0.6885357660753177, 0.48480115213825536, 0.6701049752490269, 1.510496550666753, 2.7250506332788347 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.05504352331837, "peer_score": 9.70662546949725, "coverage": 0.9989889147009233, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989889147009233, "spot_peer_score": 13.373968256713068, "baseline_archived_score": 86.05504352331837, "peer_archived_score": 9.70662546949725, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.373968256713068 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288914.732986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288914.732986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.047915816277495304, 0.9520841837225047 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in [2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas), while in [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.\n\n[Linear trend](https://i.imgur.com/0OybLvV.png), taking into account all the presidential elections since 2000, suggests that the Republican candidate would be close to the 50% mark in 2024 elections.\n\nAdditional consideration is the strength of third party candidates this cycle. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [has polled](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/texas/) in mid to high single digits in Texas, potentially stripping the Republican candidate of a majority of votes in the state. Ross Perot managed the feat in both [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) elections, though his vote share especially in 1992 was markedly higher.\n\nReceiving under 50% of the vote in Texas – especially if it happens without a sizeable third party candidate – would mark another milestone in the journey of the Lone Star State towards being a battleground for future presidential cycles, even if the Republican candidate ends up winning the state in 2024, as is all but sure." }, { "id": 27312, "title": "Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?", "short_title": "2024 White Sox historic losing season", "url_title": "2024 White Sox historic losing season", "slug": "2024-white-sox-historic-losing-season", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-15T04:51:04.118290Z", "published_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.107235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27312, "title": "Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?", "created_at": "2024-08-15T04:51:04.118290Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.", "resolution_criteria": "The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular, accounts of the 2024 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 120 losses for 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**. Under 120 resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The White Sox are expected to play 162 regular season games in the 2024 season, just like all other Major League Baseball teams. If there is a cancelled game from the 162 game total (like one game in the 114 loss 2019 Detroit Tigers' season), then the cancelled game(s) for the Chicago White Sox will be counted as 0.65 of a loss per cancelled game, rounded to the nearest integer, for the purposes of this question's resolution.\n\nThe White Sox will also be awarded a loss in that manner if they were to play made-up games (outside of a league-wide stoppage outlined below) after Sunday, September 29, 2024, the scheduled 162nd game of the season against the Detroit Tigers.\n\nIf the 2024 MLB season is truncated, due to some extraordinary event, with 10 teams not playing 10 or more games in their schedule, then this question is **annulled**. One of teams has to be the White Sox or the cancelled or postponed games will be addressed through the 0.65 of a loss per cancelled game.\n\nIf the league (as opposed to the White Sox specifically) were to continue the 2024 regular season after the \"extraordinary event\" before November 1, 2024, the this question will have its resolution date extended to the date of the new scheduled conclusion of the regular season.", "post_id": 27312, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727028730.501854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.994 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727028730.501854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.994 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.006000000000000005, 0.994 ], "means": [ 0.9901800236728191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2816923420615094, 7.177104064996268 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.545613495101449, "coverage": 0.8337100146852973, "baseline_score": 62.62380240576761, "spot_peer_score": 12.835653970969709, "peer_archived_score": 5.545613495101449, "baseline_archived_score": 62.62380240576761, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.835653970969709 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727028730.55335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727028730.55335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004673100220464188, 0.9953268997795358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context." }, { "id": 27311, "title": "Will Kamala Harris say \"artificial intelligence\" or \"AI\" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?", "short_title": "Kamala \"artificial intelligence\" DNC speech?", "url_title": "Kamala \"artificial intelligence\" DNC speech?", "slug": "kamala-artificial-intelligence-dnc-speech", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:49:09.962744Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.161301Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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keynote speech?", "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:49:09.962744Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T03:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T03:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T03:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial intelligence has been a recurring theme in the 2024 election, with for example Republican nominee Donald Trump [accusing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/11/trump-harris-rally-crowd-ai-conspiracy.html) Kamala Harris's campaign of using AI to create fake crowd pictures at her August 7, 2024 rally. \n\nIn March 2024, Vice President Harris [officially announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/28/fact-sheet-vice-president-harris-announces-omb-policy-to-advance-governance-innovation-and-risk-management-in-federal-agencies-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was creating a government-wide policy \"to mitigate risks of artificial intelligence (AI) and harness its benefits.\" In November 2023, Harris gave [this speech](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/) on artificial intelligence. In [Trump's acceptance speech](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-republican-national-convention-milwaukee), he mentioned artificial intelligence once: \"But A.I. needs tremendous — literally, twice the electricity that's available now in our country, can you imagine?\"\n\nThe 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held from Monday, August 19 through Thursday, August 22, with Harris [anticipated to speak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention#Fourth_night_(Thursday,_August_22)) on the final night.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris utters \"artificial intelligence\" or \"A.I.\" during her nomination acceptance speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. If she does not say either term, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nDetermination of whether she has said \"artificial intelligence\" or \"A.I.\" will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins. In cases of ambiguity they may consult a transcript from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the [American Presidency Project](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-categories/elections-and-transitions/convention-speeches). It is important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of either term, especially if it does not appear in a transcript per the credible sources policy linked above, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other forms such as plural or possessive (including as a [verb](https://x.com/grady_booch/status/1822719224424632743)) will count, as long as the root is used.\n\nDiscussion of the subject matter, without actually using either term, will not count. Neither will synonyms such as \"machine intelligence.\"\n\nIf Kamala Harris does not deliver a nomination acceptance speech at the 2024 DNC, this question will be annulled. \n\nMentions of \"artificial intelligence\" or \"A.I.\" by anyone other than Harris will not count.\n\nMentions of the phrase before the speech has begun or after it has ended will not count.", "post_id": 27311, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724363404.469294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724363404.469294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3398818986813081 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13256522160115436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5705170627006875, 0.865981042034266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9244383481296953, 0.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8285174574545621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3781260466281475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14329328159663618, 1.0, 1.1838183124046744, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.016175296562339986, 0.0, 0.7258864312822346, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1019474442198856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26133800879455793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12948046043583153, 0.023344988892241045, 0.329024976296409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09043497114579632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368733977514088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08534350794329564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.17154700045314, "coverage": 0.9999147392297768, "baseline_score": -30.579048747686112, "spot_peer_score": 7.87374056061501, "peer_archived_score": 14.17154700045314, "baseline_archived_score": -30.579048747686112, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.87374056061501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724363404.499938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724363404.499938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8667422651354101, 0.13325773486458994 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial intelligence has been a recurring theme in the 2024 election, with for example Republican nominee Donald Trump [accusing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/11/trump-harris-rally-crowd-ai-conspiracy.html) Kamala Harris's campaign of using AI to create fake crowd pictures at her August 7, 2024 rally. \n\nIn March 2024, Vice President Harris [officially announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/28/fact-sheet-vice-president-harris-announces-omb-policy-to-advance-governance-innovation-and-risk-management-in-federal-agencies-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was creating a government-wide policy \"to mitigate risks of artificial intelligence (AI) and harness its benefits.\" In November 2023, Harris gave [this speech](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/) on artificial intelligence. In [Trump's acceptance speech](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-republican-national-convention-milwaukee), he mentioned artificial intelligence once: \"But A.I. needs tremendous — literally, twice the electricity that's available now in our country, can you imagine?\"\n\nThe 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held from Monday, August 19 through Thursday, August 22, with Harris [anticipated to speak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention#Fourth_night_(Thursday,_August_22)) on the final night." }, { "id": 27310, "title": "Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?", "short_title": "Hurricane Ernesto Major Damage in Bermuda", "url_title": "Hurricane Ernesto Major Damage in Bermuda", "slug": "hurricane-ernesto-major-damage-in-bermuda", "author_id": 196659, "author_username": "mavik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:42:35.536574Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.541839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27310, "title": "Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?", "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:42:35.536574Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T09:01:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T09:01:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane Ernesto (05L) is being monitored as it approaches Bermuda, with potential for significant financial damage. This question seeks to determine whether total damages, including infrastructure, property, and utility costs, will exceed $200 million.\n\nPlease see also: \n\n- [Hurricane Ernesto churns toward Bermuda as Category 1 storm](https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-ernesto-churns-bermuda-category-1-storm/story?id=112854289)\n\n- Accuweather: [Bermuda's resiliency to hurricanes dates back 300 years](https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bermudas-resiliency-to-hurricanes-dates-back-300-years/1680270)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the catastrophe modeling company [Core Logic](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/blogs/hazard-hq/), total estimated insurable losses to Bermuda from Hurricane Ernesto exceed $200 million, in US dollars. If damages are reported as less than $200 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Typically Core Logic has offered estimates of insured losses from hurricanes within a few days. For example, it recently published its [estimate](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/blogs/hazard-hq/hurricane-beryl-windward-islands/) for damage to Texas two days after Hurricane Beryl's landfall in the state. If Core Logic does not offer a hurricane damage estimate for Bermuda from Hurricane Ernesto before September 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**. \n\nThis question's definition of \"losses\" will rely on Core Logic's methodology. According to Core Logic, regarding Hurricane Beryl:\n\n>The estimated losses include wind-only damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. Insurable losses account for damage to all modeled exposure types prior to the application of any insurance terms (e.g., deductibles or limits). It does not include losses to any regional insurance pools\n\nCurrency Adjustment: If damage estimates are provided in a currency other than USD, they will be converted using the exchange rate on the date of the report.\n\nIn case of range estimates, the midpoint of the range will be used. For example, Core Logic recently estimated damage to Texas from Hurricane Beryl of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, which would have resolved to $3.0 billion.\n\nThis question resolves based on Core Logic's first published estimate; any subsequent revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 27310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724077164.832914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724077164.832914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.25724284378611645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8726435988271029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.1036511093848413, "coverage": 0.9997522647926498, "baseline_score": 39.86084719531485, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 3.1036511093848413, "baseline_archived_score": 39.86084719531485, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724077164.864475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724077164.864475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8924713014652524, 0.10752869853474759 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane Ernesto (05L) is being monitored as it approaches Bermuda, with potential for significant financial damage. This question seeks to determine whether total damages, including infrastructure, property, and utility costs, will exceed $200 million.\n\nPlease see also: \n\n- [Hurricane Ernesto churns toward Bermuda as Category 1 storm](https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-ernesto-churns-bermuda-category-1-storm/story?id=112854289)\n\n- Accuweather: [Bermuda's resiliency to hurricanes dates back 300 years](https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bermudas-resiliency-to-hurricanes-dates-back-300-years/1680270)" }, { "id": 27289, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Sinwar cease as Political Head of Hamas?", "url_title": "Will Sinwar cease as Political Head of Hamas?", "slug": "will-sinwar-cease-as-political-head-of-hamas", "author_id": 198585, "author_username": "Mr.Outlook", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-13T22:01:25.428419Z", "published_at": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.606496Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27289, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T22:01:25.428419Z", "open_time": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-20T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-17T21:16:44.079006Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was \"[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)\" from capturing Sinwar.\n\nPrevious Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:\n\n- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.\n- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.\n- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following events happen according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):\n\n- Yahya Sinwar has stepped down or been replaced as Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.\n- Sinwar is captured (even if he is still officially in the Chairman role).\n- Sinwar has died.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if there is no such reporting of any of these events.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 27289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729192154.979939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.579 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729192154.979939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.579 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8033690277616078 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5087147398947933, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.283651583435268 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -28.73125215018024, "peer_score": 4.559550181172955, "coverage": 0.44833314825982107, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998325000877266, "spot_peer_score": 5.619194986055463, "baseline_archived_score": -28.73125215018024, "peer_archived_score": 4.559550181172955, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.619194986055463 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289606.115625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289606.115625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8578023009671829, 0.14219769903281715 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was \"[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)\" from capturing Sinwar.\n\nPrevious Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:\n\n- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.\n- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.\n- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present." } ] }
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