Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2240
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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Rivian has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Rivian appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Rivian is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Rivian. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 27283, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249740.341953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249740.341953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45499999999999996, 0.545 ], "means": [ 0.557465487905972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 1.0274638710700392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19080638481169374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 1.0759545003092659, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.6184456435437344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.546938895916825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.15194759720588047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8623733757154263, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.9172371287241657, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -13.606154957602856, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -13.606154957602856 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249740.369009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249740.369009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5701083530164167, 0.4298916469835833 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rivian had lay off events in February and April 2024, cutting its workforce by 10% and 1%, respectively. " }, { "id": 27282, "title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-see-a-large-scale-riot-between-july-17-2024-and-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.889197Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.899126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27282, "title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.889197Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.\n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.\n\nSuch events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.\n\nResolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249824.582642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21993999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249824.582642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21993999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1514950790633506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1600576341332742, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 1.0086988656529743, 0.2924926047816516, 0.2801509562747174, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.394595917656631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.34848960163546905, 0.42224310635533713, 0.0, 1.3128907674394386, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.6015137293468026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17200801242793703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249824.61122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249824.61122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9482894415373468, 0.05171055846265314 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. 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The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 17, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 200%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 200%, this question resolves as No.\n\nThe figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of July 10, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 196.20375072862052 for July 8, 2024. ", "fine_print": "The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 200% only if it reaches a value of 200.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 200 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 199.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 200%.\n\nIn cases in which the chart might show 200.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 200.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.\n\nIf the numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until September 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers. \n\nIf the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be annulled.\n", "post_id": 27281, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249850.565784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5376666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249850.565784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5376666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4623333333333334, 0.5376666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4953650224105367 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6403370375901634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.638455000653369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6081802360155482, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5277671320194384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4767410908382156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3380508809928928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3556209959204488, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -11.299471305964037, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -11.299471305964037 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249850.593063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249850.593063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5077428070759372, 0.4922571929240628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator." }, { "id": 27280, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.269037Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.648514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27280, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.269037Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249777.846716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249777.846716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.725, 0.275 ], "means": [ 0.297624484425471 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.6813737363707734, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.6725525385367657, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5855994173199142, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3444273625816051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7522390818837918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249777.876425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249777.876425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7834154267158033, 0.21658457328419664 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved." }, { "id": 27279, "title": "On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-sept-30-2024-will-more-than-300-and-less-than-or-equal-to-400-measles-cases-have-been-reported-in-the-united-states-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.162894Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.326558Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27279, "title": "On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.162894Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. 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Founded in 1967, it has run with operating losses for two years in a row and is currently on a trajectory to have negative equity on its balance sheet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Big Lots, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before October 1, 2024. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Netflix has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Netflix appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Netflix is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"\"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\"\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \"\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Netflix. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022" }, { "id": 27258, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jeff-bezos-be-the-1st-or-2nd-richest-person-in-the-world-on-september-30-2024-according-to-forbes", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:04.671371Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.011107Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27258, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:04.671371Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 16, 2024, Jeff Bezos is ranked second on the list, with $209.7 B. Elon Musk is first, with $252.3B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jeff Bezos is in first or second place on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie for second, this resolves as **No**. If Bezos is in a tie for first, this will resolve as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163760.619874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163760.619874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.715592841664334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0693440983958264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26217309142799516, 0.0, 1.9485916383025188, 0.2569648587427511, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 1.038927024337612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 2.1023705116506393, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163760.652303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163760.652303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3028254169086062, 0.6971745830913938 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 16, 2024, Jeff Bezos is ranked second on the list, with $209.7 B. 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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-day average confirmed mpox cases worldwide, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/mpox), exceeds the peak 7-day average confirmed mpox cases worldwide during the 2022-2023 period.\n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817755.550618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.662 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817755.550618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.662 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.525, 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.48397454175257704 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0992470275527865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10630646873163355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.43403140264545714, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5355656423129134, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5056509840383616, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.4836408376922275, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817755.595975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817755.595975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7353504277115621, 0.26464957228843783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak, caused by the Clade II variant, resulted in a total of 66,387 confirmed cases worldwide between the declaration of a [Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/monkeypox) on July 23, 2022, and its termination on May 10, 2023.\n\nIn August 2024, concerns have been raised about a [new outbreak of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna1654240), this time involving the more severe Clade I variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27248, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-secretary-of-the-us-department-of-health-and-human-services-declare-a-public-health-emergency-for-mpox-monkeypox-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:45:01.302951Z", "published_at": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.023294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27248, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:45:01.302951Z", "open_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024. \n\nEither a new determination that a public health emergency exists as a consequence of mpox or a renewal of a previous one would count.\n\nThe resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page. \n\nIf there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for mpox within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27248, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817746.251479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817746.251479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4862501006788717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1825148056242262, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.3937762559534268, 1.077498072303674, 0.0, 0.6852489480560335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8619038107682248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9938436225390226, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678877441112295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817746.303087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817746.303087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5436473411947342, 0.45635265880526577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27241, "title": "Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-keir-starmers-approval-rating-as-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-less-than-60-on-september-18-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:53.175083Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.217222Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27241, "title": "Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:53.175083Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a \"national renewal\" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.\n\nStarmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 60 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "- If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.\n\n- The \"Smooth\" version of the polling data should be used, not the \"Kalman\" version, unless it is no longer available.\n\n- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. 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Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a \"national renewal\" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.\n\nStarmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 40 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "- If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.\n\n- The \"Smooth\" version of the polling data should be used, not the \"Kalman\" version, unless it is no longer available.\n\n- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. If the Politico Poll of Polls data for September 18 is not available before October 4, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27239, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904145.923485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904145.923485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6005160332874955 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7217425342095688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1800454523024431, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29823886049968595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5470781476703563, 0.0, 0.8728672596022924, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 1.2321593921956744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9701704703457712, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0126701826628484, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904145.95367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904145.95367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5073024344201219, 0.4926975655798781 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a \"national renewal\" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.\n\nStarmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating." }, { "id": 27238, "title": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usd-be-worth-0935-eur-or-more-at-the-close-of-trading-on-any-day-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:52.831730Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.515044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27238, "title": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:52.831730Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:\n\n- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.\n\n- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.\n\n- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.\n\n- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.\n\n- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.\n\n- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.\n\nAs of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).\n\nOtherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, we will be using the \"Close\" price for each day, posted under Yahoo Finance's history for *USD/EUR (USDEUR=X)*.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance shuts down or stops tracking this indicator, Metaculus admins will resolve the question based on other reliable sources that measure this key rate, at their discretion.\n\nThis question will only resolve based on closing prices, not intraday prices.", "post_id": 27238, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904164.231564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19375 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904164.231564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19375 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3271980427606121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.07560105912010007, 0.22270172488500573, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 1.3694927869046238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.22550165513699943, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1526470900215915, 0.0, 0.6488429278764145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646728462135155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.774808361693902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904164.265513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904164.265513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7597222485084151, 0.2402777514915849 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:\n\n- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.\n\n- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.\n\n- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.\n\n- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.\n\n- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.\n\n- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.\n\nAs of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/)." }, { "id": 27223, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-rylsk-russia-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.789268Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.775386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27223, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.789268Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.\n\nTo determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW. \n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply. \n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731427.011756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731427.011756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4581509948046196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.35238137660659535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.10223706135307076, 0.12528390725270072, 0.0, 0.7250996862965486, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 1.7397304897849648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.249449430858038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8728179530395457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.8379487954001852, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3215627830808819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731427.05727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731427.05727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8137527978533059, 0.18624720214669416 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)" } ] }
