Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2260
{ "count": 5960, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2240", "results": [ { "id": 27222, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraine-have-no-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.685345Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.923185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27222, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.685345Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27222, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731398.259662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6559999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731398.259662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6559999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41666666666666663, 0.5833333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.5509896676731068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8148034378918425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2682850769829743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12830080476146405, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.6403200895653883, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8033792647762161, 1.1377014936730925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25892000231442364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.269038406774733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05058860589149875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -26.3034405833794, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -26.3034405833794 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731398.311628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731398.311628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47708303000468333, 0.5229169699953167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27221, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraines-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory-not-include-kursk-oblast-but-include-at-least-1-other-oblast", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.583170Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.681457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27221, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.583170Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27221, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731351.719736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731351.719736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.42726247157817854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.5421153138351086, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6088125976878644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12830080476146405, 1.5149763659161426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07135048620690304, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0187036868702393, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995753230734237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8005810331448966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.5009033502140801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.5550107780428799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731351.771603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731351.771603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.689460930388406, 0.31053906961159405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27220, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraines-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory-include-kursk-oblast-and-at-least-1-other-oblast", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.477128Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.404818Z", 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first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731369.927838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731369.927838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4898197331723809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9482389839805913, 0.0, 1.1812557486197341, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.850809046757105, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0555681484137076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22172252320509844, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37925214837934806, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9293106767561476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731369.988521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731369.988521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.482552844299866, 0.517447155700134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27219, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraines-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory-include-kursk-oblast-and-no-other-oblasts", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.339734Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.444775Z", 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first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27219, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731343.100239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731343.100239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5966767942959439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.044054768405987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 1.0187036868702393, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1015552390035812, 0.7685977471107392, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23530592776195833, 0.7020670829292148, 0.12971309359456562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3780018741471079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731343.15828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731343.15828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45903929178805936, 0.5409607082119406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27209, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024?", "slug": "ukr-captures-rylsk-by-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T23:14:52.980312Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.646394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27209, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T23:14:52.980312Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.\n\nTo determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW. \n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply. \n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754937.098361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754937.098361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004065922037972924 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.852767447496364, 3.2647851547070594, 0.03693063425353361, 0.00135283348636685, 0.03225826040151549, 0.025967017105719338, 0.0, 0.001934940675477372, 0.15195867094493953, 0.0, 0.0004519539225959827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000590830648692911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025545491804088117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.596742987241441, "coverage": 0.9996518005691996, "baseline_score": 96.86855636379086, "spot_peer_score": 14.974209410445381, "peer_archived_score": 6.596742987241441, "baseline_archived_score": 96.86855636379086, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.974209410445381 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754937.144019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754937.144019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)" }, { "id": 27208, "title": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?", "short_title": "2024 Olympics Gymnastics Medal Dispute?", "url_title": "2024 Olympics Gymnastics Medal Dispute?", "slug": "2024-olympics-gymnastics-medal-dispute", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T18:15:25.411043Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:59:21.044764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27208, "title": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T18:15:25.411043Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T17:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her the bronze medal.\n\nRomania, whose gymnasts Ana Barbosu and Sabrina Maneca-Voinea finished fourth and fifth respectively after the inquiry, protested the decision, claiming that Chiles' inquiry was filed too late. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) agreed with Romania's protest and vacated Chiles' inquiry, officially revising her score and placing her back in fifth place.\n\nAs a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would reallocate the bronze medal to Ana Bǎrbosu. However, USA Gymnastics has [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/g-s1-16509/us-gymnast-jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-return) the CAS ruling, submitting video evidence that allegedly proves Chiles' inquiry was filed within the allowed time frame.\n\n[CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/sport/jordan-chiles-bronze-olympics-controversy-explained/index.html) that the CAS does not have authority to revisit the case.\n\nA [CAS Bulletin](https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin202_2011.pdf) published in 2011 explores the issue of CAS appeals in more detail in the section \"Appeals against Arbitral Awards by the CAS\", starting on page 19 (pdf page 22). The section describes that CAS appeals are heard by the Swiss Federal Tribunal, which is essentially the supreme court of Switzerland, the particular conditions under which an appeal is typically heard, and says the following about the frequency and success of appeals:\n\n>Nowadays the CAS assumes that an appeal will be filed against approximately 10% of its arbitral awards. However, the success rate of these appeals is low. Since the CAS was established in 1984 only five appeals against CAS arbitral awards have succeeded. On average only 1% of all appeals against CAS arbitral awards were successful in 2009 and 2010. If one expresses the number of successful appeals as a percentage of all of the arbitral awards that have so far been delivered by the CAS (1984 – 2010), the success rate is 0.3%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS)'s decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the Jordan Chiles of the United States to Ana Bǎrbosu of Romania has been overturned on appeal.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if no such decision has been announced before January 1, 2026, or if before January 1, 2026, a higher court hears an appeal and announces that it has upheld the original decision, and credible sources report that no higher level of appeal remains.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27208, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757600669.390586, "end_time": 1758351760.764, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757600669.390586, "end_time": 1758351760.764, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.13535704328903003 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.4526933934044424, 0.41336531919859754, 1.3127729784198179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288470.029004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288470.029004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9501108016090724, 0.049889198390927654 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her the bronze medal.\n\nRomania, whose gymnasts Ana Barbosu and Sabrina Maneca-Voinea finished fourth and fifth respectively after the inquiry, protested the decision, claiming that Chiles' inquiry was filed too late. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) agreed with Romania's protest and vacated Chiles' inquiry, officially revising her score and placing her back in fifth place.\n\nAs a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would reallocate the bronze medal to Ana Bǎrbosu. However, USA Gymnastics has [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/g-s1-16509/us-gymnast-jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-return) the CAS ruling, submitting video evidence that allegedly proves Chiles' inquiry was filed within the allowed time frame.\n\n[CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/sport/jordan-chiles-bronze-olympics-controversy-explained/index.html) that the CAS does not have authority to revisit the case.\n\nA [CAS Bulletin](https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin202_2011.pdf) published in 2011 explores the issue of CAS appeals in more detail in the section \"Appeals against Arbitral Awards by the CAS\", starting on page 19 (pdf page 22). The section describes that CAS appeals are heard by the Swiss Federal Tribunal, which is essentially the supreme court of Switzerland, the particular conditions under which an appeal is typically heard, and says the following about the frequency and success of appeals:\n\n>Nowadays the CAS assumes that an appeal will be filed against approximately 10% of its arbitral awards. However, the success rate of these appeals is low. Since the CAS was established in 1984 only five appeals against CAS arbitral awards have succeeded. On average only 1% of all appeals against CAS arbitral awards were successful in 2009 and 2010. If one expresses the number of successful appeals as a percentage of all of the arbitral awards that have so far been delivered by the CAS (1984 – 2010), the success rate is 0.3%." }, { "id": 27203, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?", "url_title": "HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?", "slug": "hhs-mpox-public-health-emergency-oct-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:52:55.102483Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.439548Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15880, "name": "Mpox outbreak", "slug": "mpox", "emoji": "🦠🩺", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27203, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:52:55.102483Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024. \n\nEither a new determination that a public health emergency exists as a consequence of mpox or a renewal of a previous one would count.\n\nThe resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page. \n\nIf there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for mpox within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687403.114975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687403.114975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03901281127790788 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.52604972641203, 2.301101924634601, 1.2420024466554442, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0457545054247281, 1.0629778213002157, 0.3551836243544548, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.9880952075289967, 0.0, 0.19080638481169374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16311972700051347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.254183783738204, "coverage": 0.9978987255423354, "baseline_score": 85.36093968688773, "spot_peer_score": 14.705182706973037, "peer_archived_score": 7.254183783738204, "baseline_archived_score": 85.36093968688773, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.705182706973037 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687403.158184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687403.158184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27200, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdc-confirm-a-case-of-clade-i-mpox-in-a-us-resident-before-august-23-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:35:33.137322Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.948171Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27200, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:35:33.137322Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Clade I mpox (also referred to by CDC as monkeypox virus or MPXV) in a resident of the United States on or before August 23, 2024. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Clade I mpox in U.S. residents before 11:59 PM EDT on August 23, 2024.", "fine_print": "- Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count.\n\n- Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered.\n\n- Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation.\n\n- For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).\n\n- Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731459.123861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731459.123861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18754611631801252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.24311673443421403, 1.074388148579677, 0.014369596090439076, 0.03268672417676853, 0.27308960725456716, 1.4732721993563862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.9541417385520485, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 2.152872312398836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4872105671698428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1083449769120332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731459.16996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731459.16996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.951872310978983, 0.048127689021017044 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%." }, { "id": 27198, "title": "Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?", "short_title": "China Negative Foreign Investment Q3/4 2024", "url_title": "China Negative Foreign Investment Q3/4 2024", "slug": "china-negative-foreign-investment-q34-2024", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T11:37:47.056863Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.027849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27198, "title": "Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T11:37:47.056863Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-12T00:26:55.140832Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In what would be the first time since 1990, China faces the prospect of a net annual outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (otherwise known as inbound foreign direct investment) this year; this comes as FDI for the second quarter of 2024 [dropped by $15 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) exceeding the only other negative quarter in recent times of $12 billion set in Q3 2023.\r\n\r\n[Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) summarises the causes of the China's foreign investment woes:\r\n\r\n>Foreign investment into China has slumped in recent years after hitting a record $344 billion in 2021. The slowdown in the economy and rising geopolitical tensions has led some companies to reduce their exposure, and the rapid shift to electric vehicles in China also caught foreign car firms off guard, prompting some to withdraw or scale back their investments.\r\n\r\nFDI in China is in stark contrast to China's outbound investment, as per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas):\r\n\r\n>Chinese outbound investment also hit a record, with firms sending $71 billion overseas in the second quarter, up more than 80% from the $39 billion in the same period last year.\r\n\r\n*Will China experience a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024?*\r\n\r\n__________\r\n\r\nHistorical FDI data can be found on [TradingEconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve \"Yes\" if China experiences a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024 as reported by the [Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/wap/index.html). If this does not happen, then this question will resolve \"No\".", "fine_print": "- Data from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China quoted by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) will be sufficient for resolution.\r\n\r\n- If China ceases to release data on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732180834.187863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732180834.187863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.721044800774847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.424835409111726, "peer_score": 0.5386818447227834, "coverage": 0.7960113829278215, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9959620812482969, "spot_peer_score": -18.67366323772948, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 30.424835409111726, "peer_archived_score": 0.5386818447227834, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.67366323772948, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287029.179757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287029.179757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38259680544328634, 0.6174031945567137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In what would be the first time since 1990, China faces the prospect of a net annual outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (otherwise known as inbound foreign direct investment) this year; this comes as FDI for the second quarter of 2024 [dropped by $15 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) exceeding the only other negative quarter in recent times of $12 billion set in Q3 2023.\r\n\r\n[Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) summarises the causes of the China's foreign investment woes:\r\n\r\n>Foreign investment into China has slumped in recent years after hitting a record $344 billion in 2021. The slowdown in the economy and rising geopolitical tensions has led some companies to reduce their exposure, and the rapid shift to electric vehicles in China also caught foreign car firms off guard, prompting some to withdraw or scale back their investments.\r\n\r\nFDI in China is in stark contrast to China's outbound investment, as per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas):\r\n\r\n>Chinese outbound investment also hit a record, with firms sending $71 billion overseas in the second quarter, up more than 80% from the $39 billion in the same period last year.\r\n\r\n*Will China experience a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024?*\r\n\r\n__________\r\n\r\nHistorical FDI data can be found on [TradingEconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment)" }, { "id": 27191, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine withdraws from Kursk before Dec 2024?", "url_title": "Ukraine withdraws from Kursk before Dec 2024?", "slug": "ukraine-withdraws-from-kursk-before-dec-2024", "author_id": 145845, "author_username": "christian.q.chung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-11T19:03:29.437994Z", "published_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.194591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27191, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-11T19:03:29.437994Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T20:58:35.626756Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast according to either [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) at any point before December 1, 2024. This question will resolve negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.\n\nIf either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.", "post_id": 27191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733001774.35476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733001774.35476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.01789289359120732 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.102434667390807, 2.6755895647271917, 0.0, 0.36220081235561724, 0.0, 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the Executive Council of the African Union passed a statute enabling the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/)) to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS). The process works similarly to the World Health Organization's public health emergency of international concern (upon with Africa previously relied), but the ability to declare a PHECS was seen as important to reduce Africa's dependence on the WHO and have more autonomy in its public health. ([Source](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(22)00230-0/fulltext))\n\nTo date, the Africa CDC has not declared a PHECS. However, with the recent surge in Clade I mpox cases in the continent, and with children making up the majority of cases and deaths, the agency [may be poised](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) to declare a PHECS soon.\n\nSee also: [Science - Africa poised to declare continentwide emergency alarm for mpox outbreak](https://www.science.org/content/article/africa-poised-declare-continentwide-emergency-alarm-mpox-outbreak)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) declares a new public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) before September 1, 2024.\n\nIf this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723561775.875462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723561775.875462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.8274316016054957 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 1.78972698844193 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723561775.911193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723561775.911193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17533530471488623, 0.8246646952851138 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 17, 2022, amid the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak at the time, the Executive Council of the African Union passed a statute enabling the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/)) to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS). 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Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?" }, { "id": 27160, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-diplomatic-expulsions-or-recalls-take-place-between-the-philippines-and-china-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.156165Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.400531Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": 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"visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27160, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.156165Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T18:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before September 30, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or credible reports:\n\nThe Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).\n\nThe Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\nThe PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\nThe PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.\n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as No.", "fine_print": "“Diplomat\" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): \"...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. 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admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)." }, { "id": 27159, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-any-reported-human-to-human-transmission-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-globally-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.063013Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.548026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 27159, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731601.57173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.095 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731601.57173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.095 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.905, 0.095 ], "means": [ 0.12865790993571968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 1.7999582056661585, 0.05048348581855406, 0.7821211939703921, 1.407265826512854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 1.7451655711756486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4812676876136617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7192738719963858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 85.59896973084807, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 85.59896973084807 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731601.602502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731601.602502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9785498583260235, 0.021450141673976564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally." }, { "id": 27158, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democrats-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.965364Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.623096Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27158, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.965364Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.", "post_id": 27158, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731515.115137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731515.115137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20893211938811862 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.38043555332875517, 0.02581358824615143, 0.08192406722053863, 0.8355804261814468, 0.059105746561956225, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 1.0, 1.1544576625840153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8678375946340438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2541856167986318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10227740639521841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731515.149245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731515.149245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9260964050367038, 0.07390359496329622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)" }, { "id": 27157, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-there-be-an-armed-forces-death-in-a-conflict-opposing-china-to-taiwan-the-united-states-the-philippines-or-japan", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.835687Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.417417Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, 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"spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27157, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.835687Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.", "fine_print": "* Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 27157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731572.719416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.38333333333333336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731572.719416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.38333333333333336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6166666666666667, 0.38333333333333336 ], "means": [ 0.41378658700716076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13053206774429757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9258974666716036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5228813825925474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 1.345432444222118, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.7868265116770632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6570127365556109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238200452096865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5701559873286314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 30.25627700204313, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 30.25627700204313 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731572.749608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731572.749608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8432330848967854, 0.1567669151032146 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory." }, { "id": 27148, "title": "Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?", "short_title": "2024 mpox cases vs. 2022-2023 outbreak", "url_title": "2024 mpox cases vs. 2022-2023 outbreak", "slug": "2024-mpox-cases-vs-2022-2023-outbreak", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:38:42.591816Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.700408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15880, "name": "Mpox outbreak", "slug": "mpox", "emoji": "🦠🩺", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27148, "title": "Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:38:42.591816Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-02T23:40:35.048727Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak, caused by the Clade II variant, resulted in a total of 66,387 confirmed cases worldwide between the declaration of a [Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/monkeypox) on July 23, 2022, and its termination on May 10, 2023.\n\nIn August 2024, concerns have been raised about a [new outbreak of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna1654240), this time involving the more severe Clade I variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the total number of new confirmed mpox cases worldwide, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/mpox), during the 2024 PHEIC period (from the declaration date to the termination date or the question close date, whichever comes first) exceeds 66,387 (the total number of confirmed cases during the 2022-2023 PHEIC period).\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the total number of new confirmed mpox cases worldwide during the 2024 PHEIC period remains at or below 66,387.\nIf no PHEIC is declared for the 2024 mpox outbreak, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "fine_print": "- The data used for this question comes from [Our World in Data's mpox dataset](https://ourworldindata.org/mpox), using the \"Confirmed cases\" metric with a \"Cumulative\" frequency.\n\n- The total number of new confirmed cases during the 2024 PHEIC period will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative confirmed cases on the day before the PHEIC declaration from the cumulative confirmed cases on the PHEIC termination date or the question close date, whichever comes first.\n\n- The question will close 180 days after the WHO declares a PHEIC for the 2024 mpox outbreak, or on December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM EDT, whichever comes first.\n\n- Confirmed cases from all mpox variants (including Clade I and Clade II) will be counted towards the total during the 2024 PHEIC period.\n\n- If Our World in Data stops updating mpox case numbers or becomes unavailable, an alternative reputable data source may be used, as determined by the question administrators.", "post_id": 27148, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738678808.911096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738678808.911096, 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null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289369.812789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9509458610828874, 0.049054138917112605 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak, caused by the Clade II variant, resulted in a total of 66,387 confirmed cases worldwide between the declaration of a [Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/monkeypox) on July 23, 2022, and its termination on May 10, 2023.\n\nIn August 2024, concerns have been raised about a [new outbreak of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna1654240), this time involving the more severe Clade I variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27141, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-crimean-bridge-be-hit-with-an-attack-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.587261Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.595824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27141, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.587261Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after May 2, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.", "fine_print": "* The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.\n* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.\n* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.\n* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.\n* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.", "post_id": 27141, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644942.917105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644942.917105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6016196877955419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0379939450768347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.5067066435354666, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0865030855966002, 0.0, 0.8195499865503891, 0.0, 0.5297110963009741, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3972782922782665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.32619880252471406, 1.236031891520226, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3736233805311019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644942.952539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644942.952539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.508523294253036, 0.49147670574696406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7." }, { "id": 27140, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-september-20-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.504621Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.463680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27140, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.504621Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for September 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on September 20, 2023.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 27140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644949.960229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6116666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644949.960229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6116666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3883333333333333, 0.6116666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.6091199730801982 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 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"created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27138, "title": "On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.338138Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T19:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T19:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-17T19:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on September 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 27138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644962.58142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644962.58142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4039532197800813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6569109869013362, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5371335281250627, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1519363722042177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 2.0954410390513143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.6925992694866288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3532283704349626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644962.608805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644962.608805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7494386249141187, 0.25056137508588133 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." } ] }
