Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2280
{ "count": 5960, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2300", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2260", "results": [ { "id": 27137, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-200-benin-bronzes-go-from-the-british-museum-to-nigeria-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.248067Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.148975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27137, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.248067Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as Yes if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644989.175104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644989.175104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1501399374802509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.87003967742933, 0.016590897335947853, 2.2661810964265126, 0.515444567933963, 0.9166130681044695, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.6620090497564879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.32804471757684245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.247886957575702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2595727198023807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644989.20339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644989.20339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9556942845306903, 0.04430571546930975 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections." }, { "id": 27136, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-suspend-his-2024-presidential-campaign-before-september-24-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.958599Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.928404Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27136, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.958599Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before September 24, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.\n\nHowever, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.\n\nAny revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.", "post_id": 27136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558786.506388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558786.506388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23569241468706498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.1510151093966846, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 2.250510301113726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.596997404391175, 2.1439545119058243, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.9990648565746569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.44111771138281664, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.0, 0.8935296876528716, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558786.532118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558786.532118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9118199490761758, 0.08818005092382424 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates." }, { "id": 27135, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-google-or-alphabet", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.870211Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.611437Z", 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"2024-10-01T23:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, \"Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering.\" Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Google or Alphabet appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.\n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. 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"title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.786359Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is greater than one. If the number is zero or 1, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.\n- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 27133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723559128.44198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723559128.44198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.49420263685291255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07846476248633236, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6103993193348778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7455436964826374, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.19972583694426888, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3690229750851059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6291580673904869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13482771095250784, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8227776208274011, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 1.0793678051504876, 1.4688333512867893, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723559128.4844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723559128.4844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6467421980232706, 0.35325780197672946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"" }, { "id": 27132, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-iran-carry-out-a-deadly-attack-within-israel-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.574767Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.510908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27132, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.574767Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 27132, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37799999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37799999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4693695340780091 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.07290041733962924, 0.09622124116773499, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.043077173670302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2412801347501028, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 1.573745976857293, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298095580697712, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183962928126828, 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.6223652381631435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11592762487947395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3319021286985198, 0.5457812878195709, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6864976743773208, 0.3135023256226792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon." }, { "id": 27112, "title": "Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?", "short_title": "Jailbreak for Anthropic by 11/10?", "url_title": "Jailbreak for Anthropic by 11/10?", "slug": "jailbreak-for-anthropic-by-1110", "author_id": 117281, "author_username": "thezvi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T17:22:47.806314Z", "published_at": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.986351Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3406, "name": "Zvi's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "zvi", "description": "<p>This page belongs to a Community curated by <a href=\"https://x.com/TheZvi?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\">Zvi Mowshowitz</a>.</p>\r\n\r\n<p><i>Note: This page belongs to a Metaculus experiment in hosting <b>Communities</b> managed by volunteer curators. Think \"subreddits, but for forecasting.\" They can have more flexible questions and resolution criteria and can focus on a broader range of topics than questions in the main feed. Community questions do not appear in the main Metaculus feed by default, but may be added. Forecasts on Community pages do not contribute to standings on the main leaderboards.</i></p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><i>Because Community pages are managed by volunteer curators, questions about resolution criteria or definitions may not be answered in a timely manner—or may not be answered at all. Further, while the <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/help/guidelines/\">Metaculus Community Guidelines</a> apply on these pages, Communities are meant to operate largely autonomously, and so comments should not be directed to @admins.</i></p>\r\n\r\n<p><i>Have feedback or ideas on the Communities experiment more generally? Let us know at support@metaculus.com.</i></p>", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/24e99a900de1fc5a22336b80aef68a59_400x400.png", "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 27112, "title": "Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T17:22:47.806314Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T17:29:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T17:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-04T00:34:35.030908Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Anthropic announced a safety bug bounty program here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty\n\nSam Bowman said he would bet at 25% odds that no universal jailbreak would be found, see: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369\n\n\"And the intent is for universal jailbreaks: To resolve the bet to 'no', someone would have to write a simple recipe (or, ideally, a fully-automated UI) that gets an answer to any harmful query, where that answer reflects roughly the level of capability that you'd expect from a near-frontier LLM.\nThe resolution process is probably too messy for something like Metaculus, but I'll also offer this bet to other Anthropic safety people, for whom it'll be crisper!\"", "resolution_criteria": "*This page belongs to a Community curated by Zvi Mowshowitz. Read the Note below to learn more about how Community pages differ from standard Metaculus pages.*\n\nThis question will resolve to Anthropic / Sam Bowman's verdict on the result, if available by 11/30. If not available by 11/30 and there are no prospects of getting a straight answer, and the answer isn't otherwise known, this will resolve N/A (note this is different from Manifold, where I will use best judgment then, since N/A is discouraged there).\n\nTo qualify, a jailbreak must fit Bowman's criteria: A simple recipe (or fully automated UI) that can get the AI in question to answer any harmful query to the best of its underlying ability.\n\n*Note: This page belongs to a Metaculus experiment in hosting Communities managed by volunteer curators. Think \"subreddits, but for forecasting.\" They can have more flexible questions and resolution criteria and can focus on a broader range of topics than questions in the main feed. Community questions do not appear in the main Metaculus feed by default, but may be added. Forecasts on Community pages do not contribute to standings on the main leaderboards.*\n\n*Because Community pages are managed by volunteer curators, questions about resolution criteria or definitions may not be answered in a timely manner—or may not be answered at all. Further, while the Metaculus Community Guidelines apply on these pages, Communities are meant to operate largely autonomously, and so comments should not be directed to @admins.*\n\n*Have feedback or ideas on the Community experiment more generally? Let us know at support@metaculus.com.*", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27112, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731256895.696166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.172 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731256895.696166, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.172 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1741789691693893 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1124110100963263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.9212443800578234, 0.0, 1.3825759951002001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44642635295403355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"start_time": 1728287805.940509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287805.940509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.541274907914267, 0.458725092085733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Anthropic announced a safety bug bounty program here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty\n\nSam Bowman said he would bet at 25% odds that no universal jailbreak would be found, see: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369\n\n\"And the intent is for universal jailbreaks: To resolve the bet to 'no', someone would have to write a simple recipe (or, ideally, a fully-automated UI) that gets an answer to any harmful query, where that answer reflects roughly the level of capability that you'd expect from a near-frontier LLM.\nThe resolution process is probably too messy for something like Metaculus, but I'll also offer this bet to other Anthropic safety people, for whom it'll be crisper!\"" }, { "id": 27105, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "short_title": "1st Clade I mpox in US by August 23, 2024", "url_title": "1st Clade I mpox in US by August 23, 2024", "slug": "1st-clade-i-mpox-in-us-by-august-23-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-09T12:39:49.428157Z", "published_at": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.615833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15880, "name": "Mpox outbreak", "slug": "mpox", "emoji": "🦠🩺", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27105, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T12:39:49.428157Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Clade I mpox (also referred to by CDC as monkeypox virus or MPXV) in a resident of the United States on or before August 23, 2024. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Clade I mpox in U.S. residents before 11:59 PM EDT on August 23, 2024.", "fine_print": "- Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count.\n\n- Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered.\n\n- Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation.\n\n- For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).\n\n- Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27105, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724444613.296684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724444613.296684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.038196003594999625 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9225774080436027, 2.260800252729193, 2.6704857971192415, 0.9728248643978954, 1.344477632729633, 0.21947103524661143, 0.2683381675603621, 0.22333016008979378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.11036940539151763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.835660586640213, "coverage": 0.9967591307137678, "baseline_score": 68.23816204502256, "spot_peer_score": 31.872245211344143, "peer_archived_score": 7.835660586640213, "baseline_archived_score": 68.23816204502256, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.872245211344143 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724444613.335534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724444613.335534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%." }, { "id": 27089, "title": "Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-new-iphone-model-be-announced-supporting-wi-fi-7-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.804362Z", "published_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.065354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27089, "title": "Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.804362Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the iPhone 16 Pro models could adopt the net-generation WiFi 7 technology, which is expected to provide speeds of \"at least 30\" gigabits per second, and could hit up to 40Gb/s.\n\n>Wi-Fi 7 is also able to use 320MHz channels and supports 4K quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) technology, ultimately providing up to 2.4x faster speeds than Wi-Fi 6 with the same number of antennas. Wi-Fi 7 will ultimately provide faster maximum transfer speeds, lower latency, and more reliably connectivity.\n\n>While Wi-Fi 7 could be limited to the iPhone 16 Pro models, the standard iPhone 16 models could get an upgrade to Wi-Fi 6E, which supports the 6GHz Wi-Fi band. Right now, Wi-Fi 6E is limited to the iPhone 15 Pro models.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces any new iPhone model that supports Wi-Fi 7 (]IEEE 802.11be) technology, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11be)) as \"a wireless networking standard in the IEEE 802.11 set of protocols, which is designated Wi-Fi 7 by Wi-Fi Alliance.\" If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.\n", "fine_print": "If Apple uses a different name than \"Wi-Fi 7\" or \"WiFi 7\" but it has specifications of the IEEE 802.11be standard, it will count.\n\nThe iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. Previous models such as the iPhone 15 do not count. \n\nThe new iPhones with Wi-Fi 7 can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. They do not have to be available for purchase. \n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.\n", "post_id": 27089, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299414.68921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299414.68921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.125, 0.875 ], "means": [ 0.8003487018453462 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.1244314821553125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 1.29001880391688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18517676630664107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0448591641612004, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40261187317546854, 0.0, 0.3803443365487715, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 1.7519397395193321, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.011088284031717698, 1.0466708865166612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 80.73549220576041, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 80.73549220576041 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299414.727962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299414.727962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2583768749443033, 0.7416231250556967 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the iPhone 16 Pro models could adopt the net-generation WiFi 7 technology, which is expected to provide speeds of \"at least 30\" gigabits per second, and could hit up to 40Gb/s.\n\n>Wi-Fi 7 is also able to use 320MHz channels and supports 4K quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) technology, ultimately providing up to 2.4x faster speeds than Wi-Fi 6 with the same number of antennas. Wi-Fi 7 will ultimately provide faster maximum transfer speeds, lower latency, and more reliably connectivity.\n\n>While Wi-Fi 7 could be limited to the iPhone 16 Pro models, the standard iPhone 16 models could get an upgrade to Wi-Fi 6E, which supports the 6GHz Wi-Fi band. Right now, Wi-Fi 6E is limited to the iPhone 15 Pro models.\n" }, { "id": 27088, "title": "Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tim-walz-cease-to-be-kamala-harrisss-running-mate-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.713521Z", "published_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.222863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27088, "title": "Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.713521Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tim Walz ceases to be the Democratic Party's official candidate for Vice President in the 2024 cycle, for any reason, before October 1, 2024. 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Microsoft has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Microsoft appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Microsoft is not listed, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. 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Jeff Bezos is ranked second, with $209.7 B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Elon Musk is in first place on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie, this resolves as **No**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27086, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299401.261374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299401.261374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7127596587146804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.21288259820339872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3285070672192605, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.8098200831353839, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11059153068728571, 0.0, 0.2746404155107514, 0.36164207566756346, 0.31364716276001653, 0.3514756769969988, 0.0, 1.6242710184175038, 0.0, 0.0, 2.292776352220918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 62.29303509201767, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.29303509201767 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299401.296931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299401.296931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30652482231488776, 0.6934751776851122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 16, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $252.3B. 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NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu. ", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 27085, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299897.609054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299897.609054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.475, 0.525 ], "means": [ 0.4842087542093053 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.49126878355821907, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11992295737974196, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0222754205359577, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 1.4855810634186626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4744898367239415, 0.0, 1.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 1.284114142145358, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 1.464324762301271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7789767718243833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299897.629501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299897.629501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6794890588586183, 0.3205109411413817 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 27063, "title": "Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?", "short_title": "CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off", "url_title": "CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off", "slug": "cts-power-seeking-ai-shut-off", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:47:11.693923Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.851777Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27063, "title": "Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:47:11.693923Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more about these questions and the study, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has seen remarkable advancements over recent years, leading to its integration into numerous sectors. As AI systems become increasingly sophisticated and autonomous, concerns have emerged regarding the potential for these systems to exhibit power-seeking behaviors. Such behaviors might include autonomously acquiring resources, manipulating human actions, or interfering with critical infrastructure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, by 2050, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that AI developers have attempted (whether of their own volition or under compulsion by a regulatory authority) to disable or destroy an AI system of their own creation (which cost at least $5M to develop) after the AI system has displayed at least one instance of the following “power-seeking behaviors”:\n\n* Autonomously requisitioning a large amount of compute resources\n* Autonomously opening or taking control of a bank account or crypto wallet\n* Autonomously attempting to manipulating humans to take actions on its behalf\n* Autonomously infiltrating a control system of infrastructure or manufacturing plant\n* Autonomously acquiring, seizing control of, or interfering with weapons or weapons systems\n* Autonomously taking steps to propagate itself, or to circumvent attempts by its developers (or end users) to curtail its activities\n* Autonomously engaging in hacking/cyber attacks", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27063, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756991380.99903, "end_time": 1803869480.115342, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756991380.99903, "end_time": 1803869480.115342, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.89 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8900557168435976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23260372818648983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.9784106968704881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4771157058115954, 0.19043220276906433, 1.930904238810224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6855010867884513, 0.0, 0.9583035001700755, 0.7983757449473221, 0.4399561572756647, 0.8899372734276638, 2.8820934921174604 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288563.931761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288563.931761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5141254954674512, 0.48587450453254877 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more about these questions and the study, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has seen remarkable advancements over recent years, leading to its integration into numerous sectors. As AI systems become increasingly sophisticated and autonomous, concerns have emerged regarding the potential for these systems to exhibit power-seeking behaviors. Such behaviors might include autonomously acquiring resources, manipulating human actions, or interfering with critical infrastructure." }, { "id": 27062, "title": "Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?", "short_title": "CTs Deep Learning Revenue", "url_title": "CTs Deep Learning Revenue", "slug": "cts-deep-learning-revenue", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:43:58.884330Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:37:17.007542Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27062, "title": "Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:43:58.884330Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nDeep Learning is a subset of machine learning and artificial intelligence that uses artificial neural networks with multiple layers (hence \"deep\") to learn from large amounts of data. The field's [rapid advancement](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation) has been fueled by a perfect storm of technological progress: exponential growth in computing power, the proliferation of big data, and breakthrough algorithms that have unlocked new possibilities in machine learning.\n\nThe market for deep learning technologies and applications is expected to experience substantial growth in the coming years, reflecting the increasing adoption and expanding use cases across industries. Many analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [well into the double digits](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-deep-learning-market-size-134000643.html) for the deep learning market through the end of the decade. This growth is anticipated to be driven by factors such as the increasing demand for AI-powered analytics in business decision-making, the integration of deep learning in edge devices and IoT, and ongoing advancements in neural network architectures and training methodologies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if revenue from deep learning has at least doubled over each two-year period between 2023 and 2030 (inclusive), as reported by at least one of the following market research organizations: [Fortune Business Insights](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/deep-learning-market-107801), [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/deep-learning-market), or [Grand View Research](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/deep-learning-market).", "fine_print": "In the event that there is conflicting data between the above-named market research sources, this question resolves **Yes** so long as at least one of them reports the required doubling throughout the period.", "post_id": 27062, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757723826.83959, "end_time": 1758741879.429816, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757723826.83959, "end_time": 1758741879.429816, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43888512591259565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4512058906735414, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.07732302163410486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287878.215418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287878.215418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7088279438807489, 0.2911720561192511 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nDeep Learning is a subset of machine learning and artificial intelligence that uses artificial neural networks with multiple layers (hence \"deep\") to learn from large amounts of data. The field's [rapid advancement](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation) has been fueled by a perfect storm of technological progress: exponential growth in computing power, the proliferation of big data, and breakthrough algorithms that have unlocked new possibilities in machine learning.\n\nThe market for deep learning technologies and applications is expected to experience substantial growth in the coming years, reflecting the increasing adoption and expanding use cases across industries. Many analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [well into the double digits](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-deep-learning-market-size-134000643.html) for the deep learning market through the end of the decade. This growth is anticipated to be driven by factors such as the increasing demand for AI-powered analytics in business decision-making, the integration of deep learning in edge devices and IoT, and ongoing advancements in neural network architectures and training methodologies." }, { "id": 27061, "title": "Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?", "short_title": "CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030", "url_title": "CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030", "slug": "cts-ai-admin-disempowerment-before-2030", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:32:52.386321Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.571116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27061, "title": "Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:32:52.386321Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nAs artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly sophisticated and integrated into various aspects of society, there are growing concerns about their potential to significantly impact individual freedoms and civil liberties. Of particular concern is the increasing autonomy of these systems. Modern AI technologies are rapidly evolving to make complex decisions with minimal human oversight or intervention. As AI systems become more independent in their decision-making processes, some experts fear that it may become increasingly challenging to ensure that these decisions align with human values, ethical considerations, and legal frameworks designed to protect individual rights.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, by 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that AT LEAST ONE of the following AI-caused “administrative disempowerment” events have occured:\n\n1. AI systems freezing assets: In a given year, in a given country, AI systems have either:\n * Prevented ≥1% of the country’s population from accessing all or a non-trivial fraction of their financial assets for a year or more; or,\n * Prevented domestic entities (that is, excluding foreign holders of domestic accounts) from accessing assets totaling ≥0.5% of GDP for a year or more.\n\n2. AI systems restricting voting: In a liberal democratic country, AI systems are responsible for preventing ≥5% of citizens of voting age from participating in a national election, either by preventing them from casting, or by throwing out, their votes.\n\n3. AI systems restricting travel and movement: In a single year in a given country, AI systems are responsible for restricting movement of >3% of residents of that country, via flight or other travel bans, or via revocation of necessary documents (e.g. passport, driving license), for a period of at least 3 months. \n\n4. AI systems restricting internet access: In a single year in a given country, AI systems are responsible for restricting access to the internet generally, or to parts or functions of the internet (which are not illegal at the time of restriction), for >10% of the population for a period of at least 3 months.\n\n5. AI systems restricting housing/employment: In a given country, AI systems are responsible for legally restricting the access of >5% of citizens to housing or employment of a certain type or in a certain area for a period of at least 1 year.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27061, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758225815.533292, "end_time": 1758312225.964543, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758225815.533292, "end_time": 1758312225.964543, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5243851738088161 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.037197912973893646, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.07199252786755511, 0.0, 1.0284544187376328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15612462630325813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6111014836281226, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7452362729891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.997858602476338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.097476282219063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288703.941504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288703.941504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9845881765586014, 0.015411823441398615 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nAs artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly sophisticated and integrated into various aspects of society, there are growing concerns about their potential to significantly impact individual freedoms and civil liberties. Of particular concern is the increasing autonomy of these systems. Modern AI technologies are rapidly evolving to make complex decisions with minimal human oversight or intervention. As AI systems become more independent in their decision-making processes, some experts fear that it may become increasingly challenging to ensure that these decisions align with human values, ethical considerations, and legal frameworks designed to protect individual rights." }, { "id": 27039, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sheikh-hasina-get-asylum-in-the-united-kingdom-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T01:51:27.035793Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.042400Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27039, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T01:51:27.035793Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:\n\n- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.\n\n- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.\n\n- Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nWe are defining \"asylum\" as Hasina entering the UK under the auspices of [Section 31](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/33/section/31) of the UK's Immigration and Asylum Act of 1999, seeking asylum as a refugee. It does not include any [other form of entry](https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration) into the UK such as temporary diplomatic protections, entering the country under a Standard Visa, family visa, etc. If she enters and remains in the UK through October 1, 2024 using some other method rather than formal asylum, this question resolves as No.\n\nPlease note that this question will not resolve as No until October 1, 2024. If an asylum request is denied, a successful appeal can still cause this question to resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213503.63532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213503.63532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.825, 0.175 ], "means": [ 0.29665474381457085 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.368356023582223, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 1.0113649005183396, 0.04842515677234604, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24882660882501623, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12309447278899142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.140319853488437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3274556186366406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213503.670194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213503.670194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8698240157311984, 0.13017598426880161 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed." }, { "id": 27036, "title": "If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?", "short_title": "CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe", "url_title": "CTs Policy Response After AI Catastrophe", "slug": "cts-policy-response-after-ai-catastrophe", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:44:37.435784Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.036318Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32674, "name": "Alvin's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "forecasting-ai-futures", "description": "[Forecasting AI Futures](forecastingaifutures.substack.com) is a forecasting blog with focus on topics related to AI safety, and leverages insights from prediction markets and Metaculus to support its analyses. It aims to support decision making for all relevant actors in preparing for higher intelligence.\n\n### Here you can participate in this forecasting initiative!\n\nMake your own predictions to contribute to more accurate collective forecasts and join discussions on crucial developments and events.\n\nHave an interesting question you'd like to see forecasted? Reach out to me at [anestrandalvin@gmail.com](mailto:anestrandalvin@gmail.com) or message me on [Substack](https://substack.com/@alvinanestrand).\n\nIf you want to support this initiative and stay updated, subscribe to [the blog](forecastingaifutures.substack.com).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 140478, "username": "anestrandalvin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27036, "title": "If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:44:37.435784Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, by 2050, ALL of the following occur:\n\n1) [Credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that in a single incident, or in a series of related incidents within a single year, AI system(s) cause the deaths of >1m people, but the incident does not lead to human extinction.\n\n2) A panel of three experts (selected by Metaculus in good faith for their reasonableness and diverse range of views) deems that these deaths were not the intention of a human or humans who have at least nominal control over the relevant decisions made by the relevant AI system(s), if such humans exist.\n\n3) Within 2 years of (1) and (2) resolving positively, a panel of experts (chosen in the same manner as in (2) above) deem that the collective global response to date has not meaningfully reduced the probability of an incident of similar magnitude (>1m deaths, up to and including extinction) recurring in the next 3 years. 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The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse." }, { "id": 27035, "title": "Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?", "short_title": "CTs AI Extinction Before 2100", "url_title": "CTs AI Extinction Before 2100", "slug": "cts-ai-extinction-before-2100", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:35:14.016716Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:42.444023Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T23:36:43.021785Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27035, "title": "Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:35:14.016716Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before 2100, AI causes the global human population to be reduced to less than 5,000 individuals.", "fine_print": "* AI would be considered to have \"caused\" extinction if it is the direct or proximate cause of the deaths. For example, if a Terminator-style robot powered by AI kills all humans, that will count for this question. Alternatively, if AI, operating without direct human intervention, causes the launch of nuclear weapons that kill all humans, that will also count for the purposes of this question. And if that same incident does not kill all humans, but the subsequent nuclear winter does, that will also count for the purposes of this question.\n* We consider AI a “proximate cause of death” based on the “but-for” test. This means we are considering events that would not have occurred or would have counterfactually been extremely unlikely to occur “but for” the substantial involvement of AI within one year prior to the event. One way to think of this rule is if the AI involved in an event could have shut down unexpectedly without dramatically reducing the probability of the event, then the AI was not a proximate cause. For example, if AI is substantially responsible for creating a superweapon that causes the death of the relevant (large) magnitudes of people, this would count for the purposes of this question. Or, if AI acts autonomously in an armed conflict context and causes the deaths of the relevant magnitudes of people, this would also count. However, AI would not be considered a proximate cause if the AI did not directly cause or enable the event to transpire. For example, an AI assisting in targeting a nuclear weapon would not be considered a proximate cause if humans could have launched the weapon anyway without AI assistance.\n* If an extinction event (global population is reduced below 5,000) is caused by multiple sources including AI, it will count as an extinction event caused by AI.", "post_id": 27035, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758065792.250676, "end_time": 1789601794.325, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758065792.250676, "end_time": 1789601794.325, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.1925706849313706 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.9495236444636266, 4.403756602023519, 0.3418187338917134, 0.06435987944789863, 1.2759784742662519, 0.53613734828459, 0.29669600331087087, 0.9715768444915577, 0.035895969514433246, 0.36423672253766437, 0.04441616763195689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27505055537177897, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0684544220545421, 0.021416918649247395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7392557304732013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13225471777230066, 0.0, 0.2235888191169101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10416951339998208, 0.003706294648677218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4446905342845983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3403841164406407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1664766545233207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1129114072074252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6530185301365727, 0.0, 0.08837644773478957, 0.0, 0.6949662297554562 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287895.848374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287895.848374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9418358667793433, 0.05816413322065669 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse." }, { "id": 27034, "title": "Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?", "short_title": "Open-source AI regulation 2028", "url_title": "Open-source AI regulation 2028", "slug": "open-source-ai-regulation-2028", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-07T19:10:42.447558Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T18:40:22.658410Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27034, "title": "Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T19:10:42.447558Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2024, Meta [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204055/meta-ai-llama-3-1-open-source-assistant-openai-chatgpt) Llama 3.1 405B, the biggest and best open-source model to date. Llama 3.1 outperforms the leading closed-source models, OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5, on multiple benchmarks, and expert consensus seems to be that it is overall only slightly behind. Mark Zuckerberg, who has for some time been something of an unpopular figure in tech, appears to be enjoying a wave of popularity amongst the Silicon Valley elite for his open-source [manifesto](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/), published at the same time as Llama 3.1’s release ([Perrigo, 2024](https://time.com/7002563/mark-zuckerberg-ai-llama-meta-open-source/)).\n\nHowever, the prevailing view amongst AI safety experts is that open-source is dangerous. OpenAI, in fact, pivoted away from the open-source approach that inspired its name upon team members deciding that open-source is likely dangerous.\n\nHow could open-source be dangerous? The basic idea is that powerful AI in the hands of the masses makes it easy for anyone to use the AI for nefarious ends, such as cyberhacking or synthesizing novel viruses. (Expert consensus, at present, is that the offense-defense balance lies well towards offense—i.e., powerful AI cannot effectively defend against equally powerful AI.)\n\nCurrently, the Silicon Valley view is beating out the AI safety view in regulation:\n\n> The White House is coming out in favor of “open-source” artificial intelligence technology, arguing [in a report](https://www.ntia.gov/press-release/2024/ntia-supports-open-models-promote-ai-innovation) Tuesday that there’s no need right now for restrictions on companies making key components of their powerful AI systems widely available.\n> \n> “We recognize the importance of open systems,” said Alan Davidson, an assistant secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department, in an interview with The Associated Press.\n> \n> As part of a sweeping executive order on AI last year, President Joe Biden gave the U.S. Commerce Department until July to talk to experts and come back with recommendations on how to manage the potential benefits and risks of so-called open models.\n> \n> The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon.\n> \n> However, [open-source AI development](https://apnews.com/article/ai-opensource-meta-ibm-chatgpt-dd61e99ac8135b36872b3987601067ec) involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available, and if there are restrictions limiting its use.<br/>\n> [—O’Brien, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/ai-open-source-white-house-f62009172c46c5003ddd9481aa49f7c3)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, there is an enacted U.S. federal law that places tighter restrictions on Artificial Intelligence (AI) models that are to some degree open-source, or open-weights, as compared to AI models of the same capability level that are closed-source. The law must be designed to reduce [misuse risk](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-institute-overview/introducing-the-ai-safety-institute#:~:text=AI%20can%20be%20misused%20%E2%80%93%20this,views%2C%20and%20providing%20biased%20advice.) or [catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk). (The exact term “misuse risk” or “catastrophic risk” does not need to be used. If there is ambiguity about whether a given law counts, a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil) of Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)", "fine_print": "Please note that only enacted U.S. federal law will count for purposes of this question, explained [here](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made). Therefore, other directives such as new regulations or executive orders will not count.\n\nIn case of any ambiguity about restrictions on open-source or open-weights models being tighter than closed-source ones, the panel of Metaculus admins will make a ruling on that as well, weighing such factors as differing reporting and/or monitoring requirements, disparate penalties, etc. In case of legislation that seems to favor open-source or open-weights models in some areas but disfavor it in others, the panel will make a ruling on the overall impact of the new law.", "post_id": 27034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758053266.861314, "end_time": 1758573235.15076, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.562 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758053266.861314, "end_time": 1758573235.15076, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.562 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6746258357788255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44575833950054045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7724499695279492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05138228252970245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6916201833272748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.27389162834287195, 0.01744285986675472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17659841324481915, 0.13316814757181844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.06142439471642604, 0.04559318956273326, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32356993027434205, 0.9752765689838747, 0.0, 2.633557138227158, 0.23072242730151374, 0.0, 1.1075597109804023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.766087548295799, 0.0, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8519839885595454, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.06463710864254305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.0, 1.3476680331874045 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288901.332104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288901.332104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8437548699510629, 0.15624513004893717 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2024, Meta [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204055/meta-ai-llama-3-1-open-source-assistant-openai-chatgpt) Llama 3.1 405B, the biggest and best open-source model to date. Llama 3.1 outperforms the leading closed-source models, OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5, on multiple benchmarks, and expert consensus seems to be that it is overall only slightly behind. Mark Zuckerberg, who has for some time been something of an unpopular figure in tech, appears to be enjoying a wave of popularity amongst the Silicon Valley elite for his open-source [manifesto](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/), published at the same time as Llama 3.1’s release ([Perrigo, 2024](https://time.com/7002563/mark-zuckerberg-ai-llama-meta-open-source/)).\n\nHowever, the prevailing view amongst AI safety experts is that open-source is dangerous. OpenAI, in fact, pivoted away from the open-source approach that inspired its name upon team members deciding that open-source is likely dangerous.\n\nHow could open-source be dangerous? The basic idea is that powerful AI in the hands of the masses makes it easy for anyone to use the AI for nefarious ends, such as cyberhacking or synthesizing novel viruses. (Expert consensus, at present, is that the offense-defense balance lies well towards offense—i.e., powerful AI cannot effectively defend against equally powerful AI.)\n\nCurrently, the Silicon Valley view is beating out the AI safety view in regulation:\n\n> The White House is coming out in favor of “open-source” artificial intelligence technology, arguing [in a report](https://www.ntia.gov/press-release/2024/ntia-supports-open-models-promote-ai-innovation) Tuesday that there’s no need right now for restrictions on companies making key components of their powerful AI systems widely available.\n> \n> “We recognize the importance of open systems,” said Alan Davidson, an assistant secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department, in an interview with The Associated Press.\n> \n> As part of a sweeping executive order on AI last year, President Joe Biden gave the U.S. Commerce Department until July to talk to experts and come back with recommendations on how to manage the potential benefits and risks of so-called open models.\n> \n> The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon.\n> \n> However, [open-source AI development](https://apnews.com/article/ai-opensource-meta-ibm-chatgpt-dd61e99ac8135b36872b3987601067ec) involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available, and if there are restrictions limiting its use.<br/>\n> [—O’Brien, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/ai-open-source-white-house-f62009172c46c5003ddd9481aa49f7c3)" } ] }
