Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2300
{ "count": 5961, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2320", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2280", "results": [ { "id": 27034, "title": "Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?", "short_title": "Open-source AI regulation 2028", "url_title": "Open-source AI regulation 2028", "slug": "open-source-ai-regulation-2028", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-07T19:10:42.447558Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T18:40:22.658410Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27034, "title": "Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T19:10:42.447558Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2024, Meta [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204055/meta-ai-llama-3-1-open-source-assistant-openai-chatgpt) Llama 3.1 405B, the biggest and best open-source model to date. Llama 3.1 outperforms the leading closed-source models, OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5, on multiple benchmarks, and expert consensus seems to be that it is overall only slightly behind. Mark Zuckerberg, who has for some time been something of an unpopular figure in tech, appears to be enjoying a wave of popularity amongst the Silicon Valley elite for his open-source [manifesto](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/), published at the same time as Llama 3.1’s release ([Perrigo, 2024](https://time.com/7002563/mark-zuckerberg-ai-llama-meta-open-source/)).\n\nHowever, the prevailing view amongst AI safety experts is that open-source is dangerous. OpenAI, in fact, pivoted away from the open-source approach that inspired its name upon team members deciding that open-source is likely dangerous.\n\nHow could open-source be dangerous? The basic idea is that powerful AI in the hands of the masses makes it easy for anyone to use the AI for nefarious ends, such as cyberhacking or synthesizing novel viruses. (Expert consensus, at present, is that the offense-defense balance lies well towards offense—i.e., powerful AI cannot effectively defend against equally powerful AI.)\n\nCurrently, the Silicon Valley view is beating out the AI safety view in regulation:\n\n> The White House is coming out in favor of “open-source” artificial intelligence technology, arguing [in a report](https://www.ntia.gov/press-release/2024/ntia-supports-open-models-promote-ai-innovation) Tuesday that there’s no need right now for restrictions on companies making key components of their powerful AI systems widely available.\n> \n> “We recognize the importance of open systems,” said Alan Davidson, an assistant secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department, in an interview with The Associated Press.\n> \n> As part of a sweeping executive order on AI last year, President Joe Biden gave the U.S. Commerce Department until July to talk to experts and come back with recommendations on how to manage the potential benefits and risks of so-called open models.\n> \n> The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon.\n> \n> However, [open-source AI development](https://apnews.com/article/ai-opensource-meta-ibm-chatgpt-dd61e99ac8135b36872b3987601067ec) involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available, and if there are restrictions limiting its use.<br/>\n> [—O’Brien, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/ai-open-source-white-house-f62009172c46c5003ddd9481aa49f7c3)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, there is an enacted U.S. federal law that places tighter restrictions on Artificial Intelligence (AI) models that are to some degree open-source, or open-weights, as compared to AI models of the same capability level that are closed-source. The law must be designed to reduce [misuse risk](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-institute-overview/introducing-the-ai-safety-institute#:~:text=AI%20can%20be%20misused%20%E2%80%93%20this,views%2C%20and%20providing%20biased%20advice.) or [catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk). (The exact term “misuse risk” or “catastrophic risk” does not need to be used. If there is ambiguity about whether a given law counts, a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil) of Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)", "fine_print": "Please note that only enacted U.S. federal law will count for purposes of this question, explained [here](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made). Therefore, other directives such as new regulations or executive orders will not count.\n\nIn case of any ambiguity about restrictions on open-source or open-weights models being tighter than closed-source ones, the panel of Metaculus admins will make a ruling on that as well, weighing such factors as differing reporting and/or monitoring requirements, disparate penalties, etc. In case of legislation that seems to favor open-source or open-weights models in some areas but disfavor it in others, the panel will make a ruling on the overall impact of the new law.", "post_id": 27034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758053266.861314, "end_time": 1758573235.15076, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.562 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758053266.861314, "end_time": 1758573235.15076, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.562 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6746258357788255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.35109847196302063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44575833950054045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004173285167582051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005455655232684382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7724499695279492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030369881689754252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05138228252970245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6916201833272748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38056261610345776, 0.27389162834287195, 0.01744285986675472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17659841324481915, 0.13316814757181844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002007023398223986, 0.06142439471642604, 0.04559318956273326, 0.07218472244402722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32356993027434205, 0.9752765689838747, 0.0, 2.633557138227158, 0.23072242730151374, 0.0, 1.1075597109804023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.766087548295799, 0.0, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8519839885595454, 0.4817346416537838, 0.0, 0.06463710864254305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05771699504164168, 0.0, 1.3476680331874045 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288901.332104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288901.332104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8437548699510629, 0.15624513004893717 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 104, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2024, Meta [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204055/meta-ai-llama-3-1-open-source-assistant-openai-chatgpt) Llama 3.1 405B, the biggest and best open-source model to date. Llama 3.1 outperforms the leading closed-source models, OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5, on multiple benchmarks, and expert consensus seems to be that it is overall only slightly behind. Mark Zuckerberg, who has for some time been something of an unpopular figure in tech, appears to be enjoying a wave of popularity amongst the Silicon Valley elite for his open-source [manifesto](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/), published at the same time as Llama 3.1’s release ([Perrigo, 2024](https://time.com/7002563/mark-zuckerberg-ai-llama-meta-open-source/)).\n\nHowever, the prevailing view amongst AI safety experts is that open-source is dangerous. OpenAI, in fact, pivoted away from the open-source approach that inspired its name upon team members deciding that open-source is likely dangerous.\n\nHow could open-source be dangerous? The basic idea is that powerful AI in the hands of the masses makes it easy for anyone to use the AI for nefarious ends, such as cyberhacking or synthesizing novel viruses. (Expert consensus, at present, is that the offense-defense balance lies well towards offense—i.e., powerful AI cannot effectively defend against equally powerful AI.)\n\nCurrently, the Silicon Valley view is beating out the AI safety view in regulation:\n\n> The White House is coming out in favor of “open-source” artificial intelligence technology, arguing [in a report](https://www.ntia.gov/press-release/2024/ntia-supports-open-models-promote-ai-innovation) Tuesday that there’s no need right now for restrictions on companies making key components of their powerful AI systems widely available.\n> \n> “We recognize the importance of open systems,” said Alan Davidson, an assistant secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department, in an interview with The Associated Press.\n> \n> As part of a sweeping executive order on AI last year, President Joe Biden gave the U.S. Commerce Department until July to talk to experts and come back with recommendations on how to manage the potential benefits and risks of so-called open models.\n> \n> The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon.\n> \n> However, [open-source AI development](https://apnews.com/article/ai-opensource-meta-ibm-chatgpt-dd61e99ac8135b36872b3987601067ec) involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available, and if there are restrictions limiting its use.<br/>\n> [—O’Brien, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/ai-open-source-white-house-f62009172c46c5003ddd9481aa49f7c3)" }, { "id": 27029, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?", "short_title": "Will there be a VP debate in 2024?", "url_title": "Will there be a VP debate in 2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-vp-debate-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 167556, "username": "mackmode" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-06T23:35:19.502010Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.858019Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27029, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-06T23:35:19.502010Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-12T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-12T00:20:24.561366Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Previous vice presidential debates have been: \n\n- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence\n- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine\n- October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan\n- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin\n- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards\n- October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.\n\nVice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.\n\nThe Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before November 5, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.\n\nIf no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "- A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.\n\n- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.\n\n- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.\nPre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\n- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.\n\n- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.\n\n- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as \"No\".\n\n- The debate must begin before November 5, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.", "post_id": 27029, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728648474.007234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728648474.007234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9869105045912142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055101661612877495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07446987051963155, 0.025137985516365664, 0.1878741162901934, 0.0, 0.11034223931239878, 0.9964198728067304, 0.0, 0.9053010992041268, 0.19892345174351658, 9.915636321258127 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.647207349346345, "peer_score": 3.49730106647936, "coverage": 0.6196317132590841, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998708291224979, "spot_peer_score": 8.394622771953866, "baseline_archived_score": 58.647207349346345, "peer_archived_score": 3.49730106647936, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.394622771953866 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288008.833864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288008.833864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012361621865409567, 0.9876383781345904 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Previous vice presidential debates have been: \n\n- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence\n- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine\n- October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan\n- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin\n- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards\n- October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.\n\nVice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.\n\nThe Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate." }, { "id": 27024, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Hasina asylum in the UK before Oct 2024?", "url_title": "Hasina asylum in the UK before Oct 2024?", "slug": "hasina-asylum-in-the-uk-before-oct-2024", "author_id": 137079, "author_username": "Heramb_42", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T18:20:38.392505Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.096737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27024, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T18:20:38.392505Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:\n\n- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.\n\n- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.\n\n- Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nWe are defining \"asylum\" as Hasina entering the UK under the auspices of [Section 31](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/33/section/31) of the UK's Immigration and Asylum Act of 1999, seeking asylum as a refugee. It does not include any [other form of entry](https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration) into the UK such as temporary diplomatic protections, entering the country under a Standard Visa, family visa, etc. If she enters and remains in the UK through October 1, 2024 using some other method rather than formal asylum, this question resolves as No.\n\nPlease note that this question will not resolve as No until October 1, 2024. If an asylum request is denied, a successful appeal can still cause this question to resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726312071.540734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726312071.540734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05528448688081208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9716275482544399, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 1.8322516804729716, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.432364601334016, "coverage": 0.9995820624613788, "baseline_score": 85.16563063494684, "spot_peer_score": 28.836841435776687, "peer_archived_score": 6.432364601334016, "baseline_archived_score": 85.16563063494684, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.836841435776687 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726312071.583732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726312071.583732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9929531267572115, 0.0070468732427885535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed." }, { "id": 27022, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astronauts-suni-williams-and-butch-wilmore-be-on-earth-on-september-15-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:30.205017Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.337710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27022, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:30.205017Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on September 15?\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface as of 12 noon on September 15, 2024 Eastern time, based on credible sources such as reporting from NASA, SpaceX, Boeing, or Roscosmos.", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.\n\nThe question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. 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However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on September 15?\n\n" }, { "id": 27021, "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usa-win-more-gold-than-silver-medals-at-the-paris-2024-olympics", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.947804Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.911807Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27021, "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.947804Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. 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Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://www.anthropic.com/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Anthropic's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://www.anthropic.com/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nAnthropic's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 27020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040183.622183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040183.622183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.28115782311020554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.11160910633783082, 0.21572547604369705, 0.38043555332875517, 0.29235407747798414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8437799594664448, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9285234174050512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2928356249839038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.763185273980395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5095306989691931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040183.658591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040183.658591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8678721956293632, 0.13212780437063676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. " }, { "id": 27019, "title": "Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-debate-between-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-on-september-4-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.723429Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.110425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27019, "title": "Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.723429Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 2, 2024, Donald Trump posted on social media that he was terminating his agreement to appear at a September 10, 2024 debate hosted by ABC News, which had previously been agreed to between his campaign and Joe Biden. He claimed instead that he was going to debate Kamala Harris on September 4, 2024, in a debate hosted by Fox News. In response, Harris campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said that there had been no such agreement to move the debate and that Harris would attend the September 10th debate whether Trump was in attendance or not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on September 4, 2024, there is a one formal, live debate held between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.", "fine_print": "A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n\nA debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n\nA debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n\nAlternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n\nA formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 27019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040213.682737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040213.682737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23177706675929213 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 1.0159967232694815, 0.27308960725456716, 0.09630553750946041, 0.6840563286527162, 0.0, 1.068585672215755, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 1.3723910888530075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3550696650578925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040213.714629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040213.714629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8891242547424953, 0.11087574525750471 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 2, 2024, Donald Trump posted on social media that he was terminating his agreement to appear at a September 10, 2024 debate hosted by ABC News, which had previously been agreed to between his campaign and Joe Biden. He claimed instead that he was going to debate Kamala Harris on September 4, 2024, in a debate hosted by Fox News. In response, Harris campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said that there had been no such agreement to move the debate and that Harris would attend the September 10th debate whether Trump was in attendance or not." }, { "id": 27018, "title": "Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-publicly-available-llm-achieve-gold-on-the-international-math-olympiad-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.610090Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.397163Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27018, "title": "Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.610090Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Closed-source, domain-specific AI in 2024 came one point off gold on the 2024 [IMO](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/). However, this used a bespoke, proof-only neural network. Whereas, in this question, we consider ChatGPT-like systems: publicly-available, domain-general language models. **This question is intended to reflect the widespread availability of mathematical expertise in a form usable by a lay-person.**\n\n\"The International Math Olympiad is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extraordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions... In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\" Background information from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if it is publicly announced that a general large language model (LLM) system available to the public scores gold in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) before October 1, 2024.\n\n**Criteria distinguishing this question from the [IMO grand challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/)**: \n\n*Model Generality*: The model must be domain-general i.e. capable of answering standard queries one might have posed to ChatGPT in 2023 (e.g. as listed [here](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmsys/chatbot_arena_conversations)). Multi-modal systems are considered valid LLMs for this challenge. \n\n*Model Availability*: A large language model (LLM) is publicly available, meaning it is either:\n\n- Queryable by the general public via web browser, or\n- Accessible via an Application Programming Interface ([API](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API)).\n\nThe model need not be [open-weights](https://www.ftc.gov/policy/advocacy-research/tech-at-ftc/2024/07/open-weights-foundation-models).\n\n**Additional criteria**:\n\n*Test Set*: The model achieves the gold medal threshold in an IMO. The gold medal threshold is a point cutoff determined for that year's olympiad usually including around the top 50 competitors, and is shown on the official IMO [page](https://www.imo-official.org/year_individual_r.aspx?year=2024). Model success must be announced by credible sources, which may include AI lab blog posts, arXiv preprints, or published papers.\n\n*Input/Output Format*: Problems must be presented to the model as they would be to IMO participants, using:\n\n1. Natural language\n2. Images (if applicable to the problem)\n3. The model may submit proofs in either a formal language or as human competitors would.\n\n*Model Constraints for IMO*:\n\n1. The model must not use internet search during problem-solving\n2. The model may use arbitrary scaffolding, search within a fixed knowledge base, and program use.", "fine_print": "*Time Limit*: The model must finalize its answers to all 6 IMO problems within a total of 9 hours, submitting one answer for each question. 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However, this used a bespoke, proof-only neural network. Whereas, in this question, we consider ChatGPT-like systems: publicly-available, domain-general language models. **This question is intended to reflect the widespread availability of mathematical expertise in a form usable by a lay-person.**\n\n\"The International Math Olympiad is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extraordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions... In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\" Background information from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)." }, { "id": 27017, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-nations-have-more-than-193-member-states-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.458372Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.102677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27017, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.458372Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states exceeds 193 at any point between the question's opening date and 23:59:59 UTC on September 30, 2024 (inclusive). It will resolve negatively if the number of member states remains at or below 193 throughout this period.\n\nResolution will be based on the official membership count as reported on the United Nations website ([Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states)) in official UN press releases, or from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the UN's official numbers.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"member states\" refers to full member states of the United Nations, not observer states or any other category of affiliation.\n\nIf a new member state is admitted that would bring the number above 193 but its membership does not take effect until after the resolution date, the question will still resolve negatively.\n\nIf the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 27017, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126541.799368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126541.799368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06704041980080346 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.816367937417432, 0.9012033191072741, 0.5625398028433876, 0.0773927070098371, 4.021666431942586, 1.6225062254729186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.039056665564714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6076791370904222, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126541.844895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126541.844895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9938053231254635, 0.006194676874536413 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members" }, { "id": 26986, "title": "Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-60-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.601425Z", "published_at": 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Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26986, "title": "Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.601425Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 60 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26986, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213234.217266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213234.217266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.4191531740256472 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 1.3066881030350368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 1.9074353916842877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7748628856652136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.273166134231492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4331829240426629, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6935605674445081, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213234.24041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213234.24041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.66275147769873, 0.33724852230126995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26985, "title": "Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-50-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.330063Z", "published_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26985, "title": "Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.330063Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 50 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26985, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213268.102742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4431 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213268.102742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4431 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5569, 0.4431 ], "means": [ 0.44160745401194496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1526622014128527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7489421554231077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43844216485604137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.7452139815962113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 15.549019774756221, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 15.549019774756221 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213268.128287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213268.128287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5593668990812009, 0.44063310091879915 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26984, "title": "Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-40-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.941007Z", "published_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26984, "title": "Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.941007Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 40 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213173.050934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213173.050934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.497369002168221 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 1.2525259644339768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9734054564544192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5325522681110344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 2.1332470832803385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0033030479178713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41443698810707236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213173.089269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213173.089269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6421939040953466, 0.35780609590465345 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26983, "title": "Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-30-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.629336Z", "published_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26983, "title": "Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.629336Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 30 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213747.461123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.372 ], "centers": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213747.461123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.372 ], "centers": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3833333333333333, 0.6166666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5594109531469983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.03499639918756375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.024000794967093, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.33132359669664, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5744720982233396, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.6279842937936518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 30.25627700204313, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 30.25627700204313 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213747.508283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213747.508283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5070714380643688, 0.4929285619356312 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26982, "title": "Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-20-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.401360Z", "published_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26982, "title": "Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.401360Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 20 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213626.713948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213626.713948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6407241555415227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05452450123047137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 1.5497775237181526, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.6093063966539898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.896538634439714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3108965812370096, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213626.746339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213626.746339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3626188805298163, 0.6373811194701837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26981, "title": "Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-10-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.163007Z", "published_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26981, "title": "Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.163007Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 10 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213779.487376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213779.487376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.80228488867191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.121459168170666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3822174049978546, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.8694226837649567, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0839758874887769, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.17630000022929448, 0.4087506853414205 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213779.522235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213779.522235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22447125294944137, 0.7755287470505586 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26980, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-120-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.910418Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.841485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26980, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.910418Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 120 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213675.049683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213675.049683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6990295246548179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3381911385413752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6376996866280927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5850506855707149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.724207900916349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8894295689656423, 0.153865828537011, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3346125934581994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13240104426112295, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -88.8968687611256, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -88.8968687611256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213675.083248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213675.083248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41643728648780354, 0.5835627135121965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26979, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-100-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.346030Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.801575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26979, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.346030Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 100 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26979, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213593.265726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8625 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213593.265726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8625 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.7725973872211346 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.046693086404289, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7278304415127033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.33432944568041745, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4494831144833147, 0.973648733400507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47257657666502184, 0.0, 1.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433588, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433588 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213593.302286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213593.302286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.24763031890262777, 0.7523696810973722 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26978, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-80-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.019688Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.625518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26978, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.019688Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 80 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26978, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213712.424567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213712.424567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8038518127797221 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05048348581855406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 3.333559360120177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059112341124612, 1.169884324943012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.5849592868929284, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213712.473563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213712.473563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22678746273558192, 0.7732125372644181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26977, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-60-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.632704Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.685078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26977, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.632704Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 60 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213199.391772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213199.391772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8212188286956591 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9502081866046828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 2.371860625384609, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 1.25193482646275, 0.0, 0.941743232975472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5213285030917811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.12926020709682073 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213199.414734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213199.414734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1909163984276162, 0.8090836015723838 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26976, "title": "Will California Senate Bill 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" be enacted before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-california-senate-bill-1047-the-safe-and-secure-innovation-for-frontier-artificial-intelligence-models-act-be-enacted-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.464608Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.696580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26976, "title": "Will California Senate Bill 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" be enacted before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.464608Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California's SB 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view, regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.\n\nSB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if [SB 1047](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) is passed by the California state legislature and signed by the Governor into law before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213557.438867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.299 ], "centers": [ 0.5616666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213557.438867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.299 ], "centers": [ 0.5616666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43833333333333335, 0.5616666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4624854468328564 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.425769647389759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.2677936141292359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1086523296539448, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.6215089014821485, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -18.98997012035785, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -18.98997012035785 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213557.46721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213557.46721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6113191906754831, 0.3886808093245169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California's SB 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view, regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.\n\nSB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted." } ] }
