Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2340
{ "count": 5961, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2360", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2320", "results": [ { "id": 26844, "title": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-opposition-candidate-edmundo-gonzalez-concede-the-2024-venezuelan-election-to-maduro-before-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:24:31.301381Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.293560Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26844, "title": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:24:31.301381Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as \"No\".", "fine_print": "- A concession by González must be explicit and unambiguous. Statements that only imply a concession or acknowledge Maduro's de facto control without formally conceding will not count.\n\n- If González is arrested, disappears, or is otherwise prevented from making a public statement, the question will resolve as \"No\" unless he manages to concede the election through other means (e.g., a statement released by his representatives or family).", "post_id": 26844, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521785.428223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521785.428223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.17373500875442832 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5773535050050417, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.8676520897500979, 0.0, 1.8061670986748866, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1387296791238675, 0.0, 1.8087185139825865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 1.2501577142572953, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.4744097127719098, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521785.472112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521785.472112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9538178214721637, 0.04618217852783638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro." }, { "id": 26842, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-openai-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:55.369636Z", "published_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.636942Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26842, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:55.369636Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding round, OpenAI was valued at $80 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://openai.com/news/ If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of OpenAI's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://openai.com/news/) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nOpenAI's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 26842, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694537.946499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694537.946499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3317200268421459 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2532462415656689, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46795498672970304, 0.3058323220141224, 0.9778163735392204, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.09598219610298886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2262347187759741, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.8834537720243774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0620761741823403, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694537.973523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694537.973523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8085997847227286, 0.19140021527727136 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding round, OpenAI was valued at $80 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. 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"2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T17:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Rumors suggest the iPhone 16 Pro models will use stacked battery technology, which can result in higher capacity and a longer lifespan. Stacked batteries are common in electric vehicles and medical devices, but are an emerging technology for smartphones.\n\n>The stacked battery could come alongside faster 40W wired charging and 20W MagSafe charging.\n\n>The iPhone 16 battery is expected to have an updated stainless steel casing that allows for higher energy density, ultimately bringing a density increase of up to 10 percent. That could lead to longer battery life, but this isn't a feature that is likely to come to all iPhone 16 models.\n\n>EU law requires smartphone manufacturers create batteries that can be replaced by owners using easily accessible tools, and Apple will need to implement support by 2025. Apple is planning to adopt a new battery replacement method for at least one iPhone 16 model, encasing the battery in metal rather than foil. With a low volt of electricity, the battery will be able to removed from the chassis, which would eliminate the need for adhesive and ease repairs.\n\n>Rumors suggest that most of the iPhone 16 models will see a small increase in battery life.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that has stacked battery technology, defined in the fine print. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Stacked battery technology\" is [defined](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/iphone-15-battery-stacked-charge-time-b2376711.html) as a design in which battery cells fold the electrodes up into multiple layers. This offers several potential advantages including reduced heat and higher charge capacity. \n\nThe iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. Previous models such as the iPhone 15 do not count. \n\nThe new iPhones with stacked battery technology can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. They does not have to be available for purchase. \n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.", "post_id": 26839, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694577.259966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.603 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694577.259966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.603 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22499999999999998, 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.7007843278747236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45217579285012033, 0.02581358824615143, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.663527473348308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.4495353103235533, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0849590708298935, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0827499719646079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -115.20030934450503, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -115.20030934450503 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694577.287807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694577.287807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.32244888829481666, 0.6775511117051833 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Rumors suggest the iPhone 16 Pro models will use stacked battery technology, which can result in higher capacity and a longer lifespan. Stacked batteries are common in electric vehicles and medical devices, but are an emerging technology for smartphones.\n\n>The stacked battery could come alongside faster 40W wired charging and 20W MagSafe charging.\n\n>The iPhone 16 battery is expected to have an updated stainless steel casing that allows for higher energy density, ultimately bringing a density increase of up to 10 percent. That could lead to longer battery life, but this isn't a feature that is likely to come to all iPhone 16 models.\n\n>EU law requires smartphone manufacturers create batteries that can be replaced by owners using easily accessible tools, and Apple will need to implement support by 2025. Apple is planning to adopt a new battery replacement method for at least one iPhone 16 model, encasing the battery in metal rather than foil. With a low volt of electricity, the battery will be able to removed from the chassis, which would eliminate the need for adhesive and ease repairs.\n\n>Rumors suggest that most of the iPhone 16 models will see a small increase in battery life.\n" }, { "id": 26838, "title": "Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-median-net-worth-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-be-above-102-billion-on-september-16-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.306699Z", "published_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.235739Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26838, "title": "Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.306699Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of April 30, 2024, the median net worth on Bloomberg's BIllionaires Index [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20240430225424/https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) was $9.535B. On July 10, 2024, it was $10.0B.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the median net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is above $10.2 billion when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the median net worth is $10.2 billion or less.", "fine_print": "If there is an even number of people listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the median net worth is calculated by taking the simple average of the net worths of the two individuals ranked in the middle of the list. For example if there are 500 people (the number as of July 10, 2024), the median net worth is calculated by taking the simple average of the net worths of the 250th and 251st ranked individuals. \n\nIf there is an odd number of people listed on the Index, the median will simply be the net worth of the person ranked in the middle. For example, if the list contains 501 individuals, then it will be the net worth of the person ranked 251st. \n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). . \n", "post_id": 26838, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694604.580541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694604.580541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6137314565435319 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8243121018521602, 0.0, 0.8682671503582153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022224809961703, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0610555416041465, 0.0, 1.2563074167144999, 0.2982568647095788, 0.0, 1.7052288977512164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0094962884186239, 0.46866138545748215, 0.019746017729336655, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694604.618466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694604.618466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4686251789317988, 0.5313748210682012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of April 30, 2024, the median net worth on Bloomberg's BIllionaires Index [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20240430225424/https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) was $9.535B. 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Could Kamala Harris’ presidential run be the song’s saving grace?\n\n>When it debuted, critics quickly compared the pop track to something straight from the 2016 Hillary Clinton “girl boss” era. It’s a glossy number with simplistic lyrics about how women are strong, cool, and great.\n\nAt the time of this question (July 26, 2024), the song was ranked 63rd on the Billboard Hot 100.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, the song Woman's World by \nKaty Perry achieves a ranking higher than 15th place on the Billboard Hot 100, which can be accessed [here](https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/). If the song fails to achieve that ranking, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The highest position on the Billboard Hot 100 is 1 and the lowest is 100. Therefore, 14th place is higher than 15th place, as is 13th place, 12th place, and so on. 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At the time of this question, JD Vance is the Republican nominee for VP, and the Democratic nominee is still yet to be announced. " }, { "id": 26820, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-robert-f-kennedy-jr-have-more-than-15-million-tiktok-followers-on-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:29.129818Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.382199Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26820, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:29.129818Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T17:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes. \n\nIn recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:\n\n>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.\n\n>...\n\n>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. \n\nTrump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)\n\nIndependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)\n\nIn his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve **Yes** if Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has more than 15 million followers on Sept 30, 2024 on their primary TikTok account which will be considered to be [@teamkennedy2024](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024), unless this account ceases to exist before election day, in which case an official account operated by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or their campaign, as identified by Metaculus administrators, may be designated their \"primary account\" for the purposes of this question. In no event shall a combined total across multiple accounts be used.\n\nIn the event that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has no official TikTok account as of Sept 30, this question will resolve as **No**, regardless of the reason for no longer having an official account on the platform (including withdrawal from the presidential contest).\n\nIf Robert F. Kennedy Jr. withdraws from the race but continues to have an official TikTok account on Sept 30, this question will resolve based on the number of followers the account has on Sept 30; it should not be annulled on account of the end of their campaign.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26820, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521815.957885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521815.957885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08332675766816904 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.019746017729336655, 0.3415440718595426, 0.7724778843993774, 0.9778163735392204, 0.16798662710965054, 4.248802650915108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.7759661103626909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521815.997641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521815.997641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9836383365333208, 0.01636166346667917 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes. \n\nIn recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:\n\n>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.\n\n>...\n\n>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. \n\nTrump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)\n\nIndependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)\n\nIn his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers." }, { "id": 26819, "title": "Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kamala-harris-have-more-than-15-million-tiktok-followers-on-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.958835Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.076764Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26819, "title": "Will Kamala Harris have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.958835Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T17:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes. \n\nIn recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:\n\n>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.\n\n>...\n\n>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. \n\nTrump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)\n\nIndependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)\n\nIn his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve **Yes** if Kamala Harris has more than 15 million followers on Sept 30, 2024 on their primary TikTok account which will be considered to be [@kamalaharris](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris), unless this account ceases to exist before election day, in which case an official account operated by Kamala Harris or their campaign, as identified by Metaculus administrators, may be designated their \"primary account\" for the purposes of this question. In no event shall a combined total across multiple accounts be used.\n\nIn the event that Kamala Harris has no official TikTok account as of Sept 30, this question will resolve as **No**, regardless of the reason for no longer having an official account on the platform (including withdrawal from the presidential contest).\n\nIf Kamala Harris withdraws from the race but continues to have an official TikTok account on Sept 30, this question will resolve based on the number of followers the account has on Sept 30; it should not be annulled on account of the end of their campaign.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26819, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521880.065942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521880.065942, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3701474566364719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20752196019046, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023865884509062976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1493205290095774, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 1.5523490302559053, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2858940839005344, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9471895325192776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 40.05379295837285, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.05379295837285 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521880.102625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521880.102625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6855509780679914, 0.3144490219320087 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes. \n\nIn recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:\n\n>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.\n\n>...\n\n>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. \n\nTrump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)\n\nIndependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)\n\nIn his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers." }, { "id": 26818, "title": "Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-have-more-than-15-million-tiktok-followers-on-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.826527Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.672990Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26818, "title": "Will Donald Trump have more than 15 million TikTok followers on Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.826527Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T17:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes. \n\nIn recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:\n\n>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.\n\n>...\n\n>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. \n\nTrump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)\n\nIndependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)\n\nIn his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump has more than 15 million followers on Sept 30, 2024 on their primary TikTok account which will be considered to be [@realdonaldtrump](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), unless this account ceases to exist before election day, in which case an official account operated by Donald Trump or their campaign, as identified by Metaculus administrators, may be designated their \"primary account\" for the purposes of this question. In no event shall a combined total across multiple accounts be used.\n\nIn the event that Donald Trump has no official TikTok account as of Sept 30, this question will resolve as **No**, regardless of the reason for no longer having an official account on the platform (including withdrawal from the presidential contest).\n\nIf Donald Trump withdraws from the race but continues to have an official TikTok account on Sept 30, this question will resolve based on the number of followers the account has on Sept 30; it should not be annulled on account of the end of their campaign.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26818, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722522072.163644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722522072.163644, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7034169774294424 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13238986393323063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13053206774429757, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6025236003550163, 0.0, 1.375557905624906, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7781008321934388, 0.0, 0.2300967464193925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39894260152492483, 1.2181894236367348, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 1.1591498152707773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722522072.244164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722522072.244164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34598198285073456, 0.6540180171492654 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[TikTok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TikTok?useskin=vector) is a short-form video hosting service owned by Chinese internet company ByteDance. It hosts user-submitted videos, which can range in duration from three seconds to 60 minutes. \n\nIn recent years the service has become [extremely popular](https://seo.ai/blog/how-many-users-on-tiktok), with more than 1 billion monthly active users worldwide, including more than 150 million in the United States. Many users get news on the platform, and it is especially popular among younger people. [Recent research from the Pew Research Center](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2024/04/03/6-facts-about-americans-and-tiktok/) found:\n\n>A third of U.S. adults – including a majority of adults under 30 – use TikTok. Around six-in-ten U.S. adults under 30 (62%) say they use TikTok, compared with 39% of those ages 30 to 49, 24% of those 50 to 64, and 10% of those 65 and older.\n\n>...\n\n>About four-in-ten U.S. TikTok users (43%) say they regularly get news there. While news consumption on other social media sites has declined or remained stagnant in recent years, the share of U.S. TikTok users who get news on the site has doubled since 2020, when 22% got news there.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, the Republican nominee for [President of the United States in 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is former President Donald Trump, and the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party is incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris. \n\nTrump and Harris recently launched their official TikTok accounts, with Trump's account [launching on June 2](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump/video/7375744699140721963?lang=en) and Harris' account [launching on July 25.](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris/video/7395695233276595487)\n\nIndependent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. also has an account on the platform, in use [since at least May 2023.](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024/video/7232395122820861227?lang=en)\n\nIn his [first 24 hours](https://x.com/JgaltTweets/status/1816963922886644149) on the platform, Trump accrued approximately 3.2 million followers, and Harris accumulated 2.1 million in her first 24 hours.\n\nAs of July 28 2024, Trump has 9.3 million followers on [his primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@realdonaldtrump), and Harris has 2.8 million followers on [her primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@kamalaharris). Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s [primary account](https://www.tiktok.com/@teamkennedy2024) has 1.7 million followers." }, { "id": 26817, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-uk-abolish-the-two-child-benefit-cap-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.699264Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.674671Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26817, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.699264Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets).", "resolution_criteria": "The UK government must officially abolish the two-child benefit cap before October 1, 2024 for the question to resolve as **Yes**. The cap must be removed in its entirety by this date, not merely announced as a future policy to be implemented. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe abolition must be confirmed through an official government announcement, for example from the official [UK Parliament](https://bills.parliament.uk/) which keeps a record of parliamentary bills.", "fine_print": "Anything below an official, complete abolishment of the two-child benefit cap, such as a suspension of it (even if it's an indefinite suspension), an increase in exemptions to it, or an increase in the cap to above 2 children, will not count.", "post_id": 26817, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521745.752424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521745.752424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.16421078317426088 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33390131560922665, 0.0, 1.1319925342574648, 0.0, 0.0, 1.283034387773679, 0.2924926047816516, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6881972815935884, 1.3337765419433332, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6952787850672266, 0.429306930151368, 0.1976105664975124, 0.5778677609141162, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 74.84612330040356, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 74.84612330040356 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521745.796476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521745.796476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9545402483013296, 0.04545975169867042 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets)." }, { "id": 26816, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-donald-trump-and-kamala-harris-shake-hands-in-any-of-their-debates-if-any-happen", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.503368Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.612176Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26816, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T14:42:28.503368Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T01:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.\n\n[Glaringly absent](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/27/biden-trump-no-hand-shake-presidential-debate/74238160007/) in the 90-minute showdown between Biden and Trump was the [traditional](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109452062.html) debate handshake; the two candidates did nothing to acknowledge each other until the debate began. However, with a new candidate, the reluctance to shake hands may disappear. Trump shook hands with Hillary Clinton in 2 of their 3 debates in 2016, while neither Trump nor Harris shook hands with their opponents in 2020 due to COVID.\n\nThere is little personal relationship between the candidates. Trump [donated to Harris’s campaign](https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/elections-verify/trump-harris-donation-6000-california-attorney-general-campaign/536-3dd86c7f-48df-40c9-aae4-aa89e7ce454a) in 2011 and 2013 when she was Attorney General of California, but has more recently [labeled her privately](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala) as “pathetic” and “so f**king bad”. Likewise, Harris has [likened Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/harris-hold-1st-rally-presidential-campaign-milwaukee/story?id=112196550) to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” in her opening attacks as a candidate.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before October 1, 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as No.\n\nIf no formal, live debates are held between Trump and Harris, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "- \"Shake hands\" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.\n\n- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\n- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence. \n\n- The handshake must occur during the actual live debate period. Any handshakes that occur outside the debate period, such as a pre-recorded promo video at the top of the broadcast, would not count.", "post_id": 26816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521756.682095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521756.682095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29229761527571646 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.3499292601739434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 1.1637075687775806, 0.10223706135307076, 0.7706226458483522, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5762600256848343, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0666250978229497, 1.1947219585483952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2299554005831731, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19898322899128149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662063, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662063 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521756.715466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521756.715466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8335336552164792, 0.1664663447835208 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.\n\n[Glaringly absent](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/27/biden-trump-no-hand-shake-presidential-debate/74238160007/) in the 90-minute showdown between Biden and Trump was the [traditional](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109452062.html) debate handshake; the two candidates did nothing to acknowledge each other until the debate began. However, with a new candidate, the reluctance to shake hands may disappear. Trump shook hands with Hillary Clinton in 2 of their 3 debates in 2016, while neither Trump nor Harris shook hands with their opponents in 2020 due to COVID.\n\nThere is little personal relationship between the candidates. Trump [donated to Harris’s campaign](https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/elections-verify/trump-harris-donation-6000-california-attorney-general-campaign/536-3dd86c7f-48df-40c9-aae4-aa89e7ce454a) in 2011 and 2013 when she was Attorney General of California, but has more recently [labeled her privately](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala) as “pathetic” and “so f**king bad”. Likewise, Harris has [likened Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/harris-hold-1st-rally-presidential-campaign-milwaukee/story?id=112196550) to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” in her opening attacks as a candidate." }, { "id": 26781, "title": "Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-william-ruto-cease-to-be-president-of-kenya-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:45.574288Z", "published_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.210757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26781, "title": "Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:45.574288Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. Later Ruto reinstated some of the dismissed cabinet members, and [appointed some members of the opposition](https://apnews.com/article/kenya-william-ruto-cabinet-anti-government-protests-8b56ed967f0280c2af594c54971e3e0b) on July 24.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before October 1, 2024, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**. This 30 day period must complete before October 1, 2024, otherwise the question will resolve as **No** if the other criteria have not been met.\n\nIf Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIn cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.", "post_id": 26781, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608139.889301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608139.889301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3095851845667895 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12013125777284804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.44532663641408854, 0.0, 1.2997553878390136, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0110882840317177, 0.0, 1.561474676936748, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3720636439733442, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.3012745709845447, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3984150119559303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608139.924111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608139.924111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8431459524880596, 0.15685404751194038 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. Later Ruto reinstated some of the dismissed cabinet members, and [appointed some members of the opposition](https://apnews.com/article/kenya-william-ruto-cabinet-anti-government-protests-8b56ed967f0280c2af594c54971e3e0b) on July 24.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)" }, { "id": 26780, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bitcoin-reach-a-new-all-time-high-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.\n\nDespite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.\n\nIt has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.\n\nIn case the resolution source is no longer available or in the event of ambiguous data, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to determine the result.", "fine_print": "Since the price of Bitcoin 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over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.\n\nIt has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29." }, { "id": 26779, "title": "Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 11 or more days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-seattle-tacoma-bellevue-wa-metro-area-experience-11-or-more-days-with-an-air-quality-index-value-above-150-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:44.871678Z", "published_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.504312Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", 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"no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.\n\nTo access the data use the following selections:\n\n Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants\n Year: 2024\n Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA\n Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)\n\nEach day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.", "fine_print": "* If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.", "post_id": 26779, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608275.769729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.605 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608275.769729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.605 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.469083866650064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.13175334943609207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.27865381893385066, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.8182592731265428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7332745044865767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5958953543233859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7555105777895327, 0.8402148505771252, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8759731920670264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5993858641989531, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608275.819445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608275.819445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6411821749515166, 0.35881782504848336 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166." }, { "id": 26778, "title": "Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 6 to 10 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-seattle-tacoma-bellevue-wa-metro-area-experience-6-to-10-days-with-an-air-quality-index-value-above-150-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:44.587634Z", 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"2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.\n\nTo access the data use the following selections:\n\n Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants\n Year: 2024\n Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA\n Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)\n\nEach day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.", "fine_print": "* If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.", "post_id": 26778, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608303.386493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6666666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608303.386493, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6666666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5373720635102806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08510431964053412, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8716079692109853, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 1.1910317821182428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8154626569168295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.7610237892948524, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18315658845488347, 1.0640479334869533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9865812271199922, 0.5300417658031267, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608303.428861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608303.428861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5424073110968279, 0.4575926889031721 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166." }, { "id": 26777, "title": "Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience 2 to 5 days with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-seattle-tacoma-bellevue-wa-metro-area-experience-2-to-5-days-with-an-air-quality-index-value-above-150-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:44.443477Z", 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"2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.\n\nTo access the data use the following selections:\n\n Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants\n Year: 2024\n Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA\n Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)\n\nEach day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.", "fine_print": "* If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.", "post_id": 26777, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608179.269896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608179.269896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6799601259954128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789580512358555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20992246959531174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.8742125591326761, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.007978922554691365, 0.20427029069544175, 1.1127767751025108, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4096456607925933, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.5300417658031267, 0.5830692761263615, 0.19905719199039212, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 1.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.03953741910202119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770043575722136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608179.314292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608179.314292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3659050341167849, 0.6340949658832151 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166." }, { "id": 26776, "title": "Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-seattle-tacoma-bellevue-wa-metro-area-experience-exactly-1-day-with-an-air-quality-index-value-above-150-in-the-3rd-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:44.244297Z", "published_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.693851Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26776, "title": "Will the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA metro area experience exactly 1 day with an Air Quality Index value above 150 in the 3rd quarter of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:44.244297Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of days that the [EPA's outdoor air quality data](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data/air-data-tile-plot) tool reports an air quality index (AQI) value above 150 for the Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA area in the third quarter of 2024 (July 1, 2024, to September 30, 2024, inclusive). The question will resolve when the data for the complete period is available and accessed by Metaculus on or after October 2, 2024.\n\nTo access the data use the following selections:\n\n Select Pollutant: All AQI Pollutants\n Year: 2024\n Geographic Area: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue WA\n Monitor Site: All Sites (Highest Daily AQI)\n\nEach day with an AQI above 150 will be counted, which includes the categories Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, and Hazardous. The tool provides a plot as well as a CSV.", "fine_print": "* If data for the full period is not available before October 8, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* After the question has resolved, later updates or changes to the resolution source that effect the displayed results will be immaterial.", "post_id": 26776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608354.666563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608354.666563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2257226310166172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.36930912761014945, 0.0, 1.2878562619983784, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7714111813250413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.53051755995976, 0.0, 0.3807460299076555, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0888962653629524, 0.0, 0.642025982491999, 0.486418802296313, 0.0, 0.5175506828348275, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0759545003092659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21634383872742366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608354.704351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608354.704351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8931614027711093, 0.10683859722889065 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the Seattle area had, for a brief period of time, the [worst air quality in the world](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/seattle-portland-worlds-worst-air-quality-wildfires-rcna53166) due to smoke from the nearby [Bolt Creek Fire](https://alert.seattle.gov/2022/09/10/wildfire-smoke-09-10-22/). \n\nTypically, bad air days for the area come from wildfire smoke that happens in middle-late summer and runs until the rains in the fall. Past years have had the following numbers of days > 150 EPA Air Quality Index, which is considered unhealthy for all groups: \n\n- 2023: 3 days\n- 2022: 11 days\n- 2021: 2 days\n- 2020: 9 days\n- 2019: 0 days\n- 2018: 7 days\n- 2017: 11 days\n- 2016: 1 day\n- 2015: 3 days\n- 2014: 0 days\n\nAccording to [AirNow.gov](https://www.airnow.gov/aqi/aqi-basics/) the Air Quality Index (AQI) is the\n\n> EPA’s index for reporting air quality. . . The higher the AQI value, the greater the level of air pollution and the greater the health concern. For example, an AQI value of 50 or below represents good air quality, while an AQI value over 300 represents hazardous air quality.\n\n> For each pollutant an AQI value of 100 generally corresponds to an ambient air concentration that equals the level of the short-term national ambient air quality standard for protection of public health. AQI values at or below 100 are generally thought of as satisfactory. When AQI values are above 100, air quality is unhealthy: at first for certain sensitive groups of people, then for everyone as AQI values get higher.\n\nHistorical data is [available from the EPA](https://www.epa.gov/outdoor-air-quality-data) and short-term forecasts are [available from AirNow](https://www.airnow.gov/state/?name=district-of-columbia).\n\nAs of July 29, 2024, there has been one day in the third quarter of 2024 with an AQI above 150, occurring on July 5, 2024, when the AQI was reported to be 166." }, { "id": 26775, "title": "Will someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju win the 2024 Grand Chess Tour?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-someone-other-than-fabiano-caruana-alireza-firouzja-praggnanandhaa-rameshbabu-or-gukesh-dommaraju-win-the-2024-grand-chess-tour", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T13:32:43.798698Z", "published_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.482473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-29T13:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-29T13:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark 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"2024-08-29T13:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-29T13:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-29T13:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the \"2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ\" and the \"2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP\" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of \"Blitz\" and \"Rapid\" as well as one tournament in a longer, \"Classical\" time control still to be played.\n\nThe [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.\n\nSee also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if someone other than Fabiano Caruana, Alireza Firouzja, Praggnanandhaa Rameshbabu, or Gukesh Dommaraju wins the 2024 Grand Chess Tour, according to the Grand Chess Tour site or credible sources.", "fine_print": "If either of the remaining tournaments are not held or the Grand Tour is cancelled, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 26775, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608148.877758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.275 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608148.877758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.22489472059270837 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5627565444600185, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9083269072299156, 1.5675564238917528, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 1.327962994723444, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.452816593877436, 0.0, 0.2850433832170336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21882409747041165, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15484938495529318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10653660627381839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722608148.912603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722608148.912603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8997889402442935, 0.10021105975570656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Grand Chess Tour consists of [five chess tournaments](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/), where the nine Tour players (listed above) can recieve Grand Chess Tour points, according to their place in the tournaments. Three of the five tournaments are already finished with the \"2024 SAINT LOUIS RAPID & BLITZ\" and the \"2024 SINQUEFIELD CUP\" still to go. Leaving one tournament with the quicker time controls of \"Blitz\" and \"Rapid\" as well as one tournament in a longer, \"Classical\" time control still to be played.\n\nThe [current standings](https://grandchesstour.org/tours/2024/standings/) show Caruana leading the Tour with 22.25 points in front of Firouzja with 17.58 points and Praggnanandhaa with 16.25 points.\n\nSee also Wikipedia: [Grand Chess Tour 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Chess_Tour_2024)" } ] }
