Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2380
{ "count": 5962, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2360", "results": [ { "id": 26683, "title": "At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-2024-olympics-will-at-least-5-countries-win-their-debut-gold-medal", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:40:51.475188Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.935296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T18:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T18:20:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26683, "title": "At the 2024 Olympics, will at least 5 countries win their debut gold medal?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:40:51.475188Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T18:20:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T18:20:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T18:20:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Liechtenstein has won gold at Winter Games, but not the Summer ones; it won't count as a \"first\" if it wins any in Paris.\n\nThe Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" or [Independent Olympians at the Olympic Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Olympians_at_the_Olympic_Games) will not.", "post_id": 26683, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349343.06846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349343.06846, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4382491999588176 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.638518281199307, 0.0, 0.3665775058604376, 0.07560105912010007, 0.5243776579668233, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0465580062237017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.2801509562747174, 1.799956034465016, 0.11777121751898838, 0.2501577142572954, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.10134174905292345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 1.2133622059940528, 0.7654150283970271, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349343.090379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349343.090379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6516209590091534, 0.3483790409908466 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?" }, { "id": 26671, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's \"Together\" coalition?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-prime-minister-of-france-on-august-31-2024-belong-to-macrons-together-coalition", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:43.381551Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.644127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26671, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to Macron's \"Together\" coalition?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:43.381551Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.\n\nWill the Prime Minister on August 31 come from President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Prime Minister of France as of August 31, 2024, 12:00 CEST, was elected to Parliament as a member of the Together alliance.", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry elections page will be the source about which party they belong to.", "post_id": 26671, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349341.545483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.682 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349341.545483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.682 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5713841371457373 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 1.0110127573288528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2728982082319823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.739195709382794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.9794710076888867, 0.0, 1.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.39321176690716886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7316726562109709, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08315053981668974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349341.568907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349341.568907, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4570018343196105, 0.5429981656803895 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.\n\nWill the Prime Minister on August 31 come from President Emmanuel Macron's Together alliance?" }, { "id": 26670, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-prime-minister-of-france-on-august-31-2024-belong-to-the-new-popular-front-but-not-lfi", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:43.276169Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.094521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26670, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the New Popular Front but not LFI?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:43.276169Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-31T13:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.\n\nWill the Prime Minister on August 31 come from the NFP but not its furthest-left member LFI?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Prime Minister of France as of August 31, 2024, 12:00 CEST, is a member of the New Popular Front but not the LFI party.", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry elections page will be the source about which party they belong to.", "post_id": 26670, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349248.923096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3875 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349248.923096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3875 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46571162026715485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.046071256587532805, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.7020670829292148, 0.8402148505771252, 0.20582556851037337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.36453123427495004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6420259824919992, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5846375679080167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.6403200895653883, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349248.94983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349248.94983, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6930701901021965, 0.30692980989780344 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP), centrist Together and far-right National Rally.\n\nWill the Prime Minister on August 31 come from the NFP but not its furthest-left member LFI?" }, { "id": 26669, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-prime-minister-of-france-on-august-31-2024-belong-to-the-france-unbowed-lfi-party", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:43.018248Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.219341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26669, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France on August 31, 2024 belong to the France Unbowed (LFI) party?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:43.018248Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-31T13:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front, centrist Together and far-right National Rally.\n\nWill the Prime Minister on August 31 come from France Unbowed (LFI), the furthest-left party in the NFP coalition?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Prime Minister of France as of August 31, 2024, 12:00 CEST, is a member of France Unbowed (LFI).", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry elections page will be the source about which party they belong to.", "post_id": 26669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349247.372337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.092 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349247.372337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.092 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.15457929964506473 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5830692761263615, 0.0339977085555509, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8925297417561, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.9890374842321833, 1.0, 1.6088125976878644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21224921325013313, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.12377442688140071, 0.7212374323736493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8964268711341139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 1.03928261055234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4141403307200923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349247.402517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349247.402517, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9394281708991145, 0.060571829100885495 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the snap elections of June 30 and July 7, the National Assembly of France has comparably-sized caucuses of the left-wing New Popular Front, centrist Together and far-right National Rally.\n\nWill the Prime Minister on August 31 come from France Unbowed (LFI), the furthest-left party in the NFP coalition?" }, { "id": 26668, "title": "On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-september-30-2024-will-jd-vance-be-the-republican-nominee-for-vice-president-in-the-2024-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.915392Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.438639Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26668, "title": "On September 30, 2024, will JD Vance be the Republican nominee for vice president in the 2024 election?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.915392Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T16:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "JD Vance was officially nominated as the 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate on July 17, 2024. Shortly after that, President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and his vice president, Kamala Harris, became the presumptive nominee. Since then, footage has resurfaced of Vance referring to \"childless cat ladies,\" mentioning Harris. According to Harry Enten of CNN, Vance has a net favoribility rating of -16% in his home region of the Midwest and is historically unpopular for a freshly-picked vice president. Enten notes Vance's national net favorability of -5% is far lower than Dan Quayle at +15 and Sarah Palin at +26 following their respective conventions. There is historical precedent in an official vice presidential nominee dropping out: Thomas Eagleton in 1972. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if James David Vance is the Republican vice presidential nominee on September 30, 2024. If he is not the vice presidential nominee on that day, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26668, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349245.700595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6666666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.785 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349245.700595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6666666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.785 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21499999999999997, 0.785 ], "means": [ 0.7162125993138104 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07101306229276322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9881510449977977, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2530409179611156, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 1.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4995473279500515, 1.661186926548711, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 1.7027751086893974, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 65.07645591169023, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.07645591169023 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349245.724853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349245.724853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36022039704262776, 0.6397796029573722 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "JD Vance was officially nominated as the 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate on July 17, 2024. Shortly after that, President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and his vice president, Kamala Harris, became the presumptive nominee. Since then, footage has resurfaced of Vance referring to \"childless cat ladies,\" mentioning Harris. According to Harry Enten of CNN, Vance has a net favoribility rating of -16% in his home region of the Midwest and is historically unpopular for a freshly-picked vice president. Enten notes Vance's national net favorability of -5% is far lower than Dan Quayle at +15 and Sarah Palin at +26 following their respective conventions. There is historical precedent in an official vice presidential nominee dropping out: Thomas Eagleton in 1972. " }, { "id": 26667, "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-planet-nine-be-discovered-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.808189Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.866206Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26667, "title": "Will Planet Nine be discovered before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.808189Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a new planet in the [Solar System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_System) is detected by direct optical observation, according to credible sources. The planet must have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years. \n\nIf this does not happen before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349248.125194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349248.125194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18122450128126363 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.273555756078699, 0.0, 0.7360647914847658, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.23179856028486678, 0.4434377819692303, 0.0, 0.8170121671060951, 0.27424663945997707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9265536892669273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 1.2758492613210028, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.02168896019109956, 0.6768449047310485, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08642057743567683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349248.159933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349248.159933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.93956673577068, 0.06043326422932009 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection." }, { "id": 26666, "title": "Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tether-collapse-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.711693Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.097128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26666, "title": "Will Tether collapse before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.711693Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits showing sufficient asset reserves.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if any of these conditions are true before September 30, 2024:\n\n- Tether (USDT) trades for less than 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: [Binance](https://www.binance.com/en/price/tether), [Coinbase](https://www.coinbase.com/price/tether), and [Uniswap](https://app.uniswap.org/explore/tokens/ethereum/0xdAC17F958D2ee523a2206206994597C13D831ec7).\n- Trading of all USDT pairs is suspended for more than 7 days on at least two out of the following three exchanges: Binance, Coinbase, and Uniswap.\n- Tether's price as shown on Coingecko falls below 0.50 USD continuously for more than 7 days.", "fine_print": "- The period of 7 days can start any time before September 30, 2024. Thus, it is possible that the period could end after September 30, 2024.", "post_id": 26666, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349342.292805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0925 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349342.292805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0925 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16806565404697196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.8666436603088302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1335867392569563, 0.31463681663607657, 0.5830692761263615, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9989794708868347, 0.12377442688140071, 0.06934409839582649, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.8330471475220071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8294106666973045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349342.319589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349342.319589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.947221260525589, 0.052778739474411064 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tether](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tether_(cryptocurrency)) is an asset-backed cryptocurrency stablecoin. Tether Limited, the company behind it, has stated that it maintains USD $1 of asset reserves for each USDT 1 issued, but has been fined by regulators for failing to do this and has failed to present audits showing sufficient asset reserves." }, { "id": 26665, "title": "Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apple-announce-a-portless-iphone-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.554435Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.754296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26665, "title": "Will Apple announce a portless iPhone before October 1, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:25:42.554435Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), \"With the iPhone 16, Apple could introduce a high-end iPhone 16 \"Ultra\" that would be sold alongside the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. The device would be positioned as the top-of-the-line iPhone offering, and it could feature additional camera improvements, a bigger display, and perhaps even a portless design.\" \n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that is portless, which means it has no ports for charging and can only be charged wirelessly. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The portless iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. \n\nThe portless iPhone can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. It does not have to be available for purchase. \n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.\n", "post_id": 26665, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349246.525344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349246.525344, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2770673270421949 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10553738848481717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09469111760206803, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8705367821537546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 1.6543967129053447, 0.0, 0.5409371149363933, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 1.3822804226669687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45422992243437593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349246.558374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349246.558374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8449630401744435, 0.15503695982555651 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), \"With the iPhone 16, Apple could introduce a high-end iPhone 16 \"Ultra\" that would be sold alongside the iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Plus, iPhone 16 Pro, and iPhone 16 Pro Max. The device would be positioned as the top-of-the-line iPhone offering, and it could feature additional camera improvements, a bigger display, and perhaps even a portless design.\" \n" }, { "id": 26651, "title": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "USD to EUR value 0.935 by Oct 1st?", "url_title": "USD to EUR value 0.935 by Oct 1st?", "slug": "usd-to-eur-value-0935-by-oct-1st", "author_id": 192660, "author_username": "pablo-csv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T23:10:39.502279Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.406153Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 73, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26651, "title": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T23:10:39.502279Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:\n\n- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.\n\n- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.\n\n- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.\n\n- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.\n\n- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.\n\n- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.\n\nAs of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).\n\nOtherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, we will be using the \"Close\" price for each day, posted under Yahoo Finance's history for *USD/EUR (USDEUR=X)*.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance shuts down or stops tracking this indicator, Metaculus admins will resolve the question based on other reliable sources that measure this key rate, at their discretion.\n\nThis question will only resolve based on closing prices, not intraday prices.", "post_id": 26651, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687389.047773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687389.047773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.0054428445343914 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.943520910371003, 4.004026713898066, 0.03874383976905603, 0.07099238448930048, 0.20494323790943791, 0.025330981732372755, 0.02385565427197364, 0.004400004245480924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020496590931671312, 0.0, 0.035895969514433246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028568681328776276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.062253821122626, "coverage": 0.999560135644097, "baseline_score": 91.10951487163288, "spot_peer_score": 13.160313439565325, "peer_archived_score": 7.062253821122626, "baseline_archived_score": 91.10951487163288, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.160313439565325 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687389.084347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687389.084347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 377, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:\n\n- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.\n\n- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.\n\n- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.\n\n- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.\n\n- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.\n\n- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.\n\nAs of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/)." }, { "id": 26646, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-paris-summer-olympics-in-2024-will-the-mens-100m-dash-winning-time-break-the-olympic-record-of-963s", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:56.025672Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.708626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26646, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:56.025672Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The world record is 9.58s, but a time higher than that and lower than the Olympic record is still sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. Live transmission reporting a time as a record will be enough; the record need not be ratified by World Athletics, as that ratification can be later rescinded.\n\nWind speed in the direction of the race needs to be less than 2.0m/s, the normal condition for record validity; if the race is run with stronger winds, any records set there are not valid for this question.", "post_id": 26646, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089860.3334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.165 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089860.3334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.165 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.2754360094517625 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1167832770515642, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41760219967477274, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.9941409785796557, 0.1993479780598375, 0.26577008775178024, 0.8026177043617206, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 1.2709450889647806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04611357990309599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089860.369053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089860.369053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9227324680175477, 0.07726753198245234 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?" }, { "id": 26645, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-saudi-arabia-establish-diplomatic-relations-with-israel-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.932118Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.954718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26645, "title": "Will Saudi Arabia establish diplomatic relations with Israel before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.932118Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T19:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):\n\n> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.\n\nThe Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part of the dual agreements, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations.\n\nThe Biden Administration has made it a priority to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, including appointing former U.S. Ambassador Daniel Shapiro as Senior Advisor for Regional Integration, tasked to \"[deepen and broaden the Abraham Accords](https://twitter.com/secblinken/status/1674415194175406080?s=43&t=vY0_bWTIV7xGoG_yX6ppxQ)\".", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Saudi Arabia and Israel have established diplomatic relations. Otherwise resolves as **No**. For the purposes of this question, diplomatic relations will be considered to be established when a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced. \n", "fine_print": "* Saudi Arabia need not sign the Abraham Accords for this question to resolve as **Yes** so long as an agreement to establish diplomatic relations is announced.\n* This question does not require any steps to be taken to fulfill normalization, only the announcement of a mutual agreement to establish diplomatic relations.", "post_id": 26645, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089887.20824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089887.20824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6875, 0.3125 ], "means": [ 0.3363802347841881 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10884657792172893, 0.10527918291777463, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9491713405896097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.16103927879919655, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 1.591716044303581, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.33051953787160115, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.8732612437677528, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.036627697920844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 45.94316186372972, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 45.94316186372972 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089887.240785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089887.240785, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8266877936570307, 0.1733122063429693 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abraham_Accords):\n\n> The Abraham Accords are a series of joint normalization statements initially between Israel, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain, effective since September 15, 2020.\n\nThe Accords were later joined by Morocco (2020) and Sudan (2021). As part of the dual agreements, United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Morocco recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations.\n\nThe Biden Administration has made it a priority to include Saudi Arabia in the Abraham Accords, including appointing former U.S. Ambassador Daniel Shapiro as Senior Advisor for Regional Integration, tasked to \"[deepen and broaden the Abraham Accords](https://twitter.com/secblinken/status/1674415194175406080?s=43&t=vY0_bWTIV7xGoG_yX6ppxQ)\"." }, { "id": 26644, "title": "Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-spanish-wikipedia-first-exceed-2-million-articles-betweeen-september-15-2024-and-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.839775Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.306382Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26644, "title": "Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles betweeen September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.839775Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.\n\nSee also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of Wikipedia articles first exceeds 2 million between September 15, 2024 and October 1, 2024, according to [official internal statistics from Wikipedia](https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas).\n\nThe \"Número de artículos\" statistic on that page will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the location of the statistics page changes, Admins will locate another resolution source from Wikipedia or credible sources. If none exist, the question will be **annulled**. \n\nIf Wikipedia implements a change in its methodology of counting articles (for example, counting Talk pages as a separate article) that Admins deem to be significant, and there is no replacement resolution source that can be used, this question may be annulled. \n\nThis question resolves as annulled if Wikipedia permanently ceases publishing in Spanish or if Wikipedia shuts down permanently.", "post_id": 26644, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089911.382057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089911.382057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.39147875720053943 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4905072510743171, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8885438579531144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0879332980407084, 0.09877132838432481, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38213595752647456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.6406855288147861, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2780615558336996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089911.421164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089911.421164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7444370452549793, 0.25556295474502067 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.\n\nSee also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)" }, { "id": 26643, "title": "Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-spanish-wikipedia-first-exceed-2-million-articles-before-seotember-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.722653Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.379977Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26643, "title": "Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before Seotember 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.722653Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-15T11:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.\n\nSee also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of Wikipedia articles first exceeds 2 million before September 15, 2024, according to [official internal statistics from Wikipedia](https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas).\n\nThe \"Número de artículos\" statistic on that page will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the location of the statistics page changes, Admins will locate another resolution source from Wikipedia or credible sources. If none exist, the question will be **annulled**. \n\nIf Wikipedia implements a change in its methodology of counting articles (for example, counting Talk pages as a separate article) that Admins deem to be significant, and there is no replacement resolution source that can be used, this question may be annulled. \n\nThis question resolves as annulled if Wikipedia permanently ceases publishing in Spanish or if Wikipedia shuts down permanently.", "post_id": 26643, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089737.316659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089737.316659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5536802279997082 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5330450098939032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.193176591346436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.480230065661607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.8144800281936784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089737.356438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089737.356438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5489732732053807, 0.45102672679461925 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.\n\nSee also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)" }, { "id": 26642, "title": "Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-spanish-wikipedia-first-exceed-2-million-articles-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.228220Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.979398Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26642, "title": "Will the Spanish Wikipedia first exceed 2 million articles before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.228220Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.\n\nSee also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of Wikipedia articles first exceeds 2 million before October 1, 2024, according to [official internal statistics from Wikipedia](https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas).\n\nThe \"Número de artículos\" statistic on that page will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the location of the statistics page changes, Admins will locate another resolution source from Wikipedia or credible sources. If none exist, the question will be **annulled**. \n\nIf Wikipedia implements a change in its methodology of counting articles (for example, counting Talk pages as a separate article) that Admins deem to be significant, and there is no replacement resolution source that can be used, this question may be annulled. \n\nThis question resolves as annulled if Wikipedia permanently ceases publishing in Spanish or if Wikipedia shuts down permanently.", "post_id": 26642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089809.465683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089809.465683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32499999999999996, 0.675 ], "means": [ 0.5997048465037401 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5886483876948753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8211499260018558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988273762811899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1547387395642372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37265846695026367, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -62.14883767462704, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -62.14883767462704 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089809.52088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089809.52088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3946479999369352, 0.6053520000630648 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Spanish Wikipedia [was launched](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia) in 2001 and now has 1,968,552 articles as of June 24, 2024. In June 2023 this number [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20230603174501/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,866,921, and in May 2022 it [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20220517000158/https://es.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Especial:Estad%C3%ADsticas) 1,774,468.\n\nSee also [Spanish Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_Wikipedia)" }, { "id": 26641, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-debate-the-democratic-nominee-for-president-less-than-twice-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.137426Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.690599Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26641, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president less than twice before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.137426Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is zero or 1. If the number is two or more, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.\n- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 26641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089744.430088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089744.430088, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6544126742856231 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16084644938160092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.38043555332875517, 0.14731282932738304, 0.8243121018521602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8146561421303942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.46866138545748215, 0.8965256267676007, 0.5724472223148853, 0.019746017729336655, 0.8906581720792404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089744.469151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089744.469151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3775241132441839, 0.6224758867558161 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"" }, { "id": 26640, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-debate-the-democratic-nominee-for-president-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.041844Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.506731Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26640, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:55.041844Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T01:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a formal, live debate is held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "- The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.\n- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 26640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089834.828419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089834.828419, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5480663835866442 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.47937003226350644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6488429278764145, 0.0, 0.4240906607555691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.2968558652249636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2224742237437058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2800996673357106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.9277970210880595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089834.870461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089834.870461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5581803596464849, 0.441819640353515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"" }, { "id": 26639, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-debate-the-democratic-nominee-for-president-more-than-once-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:54.933510Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.258518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26639, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:54.933510Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is greater than one. If the number is zero or 1, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.\n- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 26639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089754.912274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089754.912274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37609974080630515 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5156585183967564, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 1.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7342052558817349, 1.1954160221066412, 0.7620908974955233, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33164591026027385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.437849609369003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31355272038830745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.721907627023151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089754.912274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089754.912274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7664324520109256, 0.23356754798907436 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"" }, { "id": 26638, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-a-federal-court-rule-in-favor-of-a-challenge-to-a-major-clean-air-act-provision-citing-chevrons-overturning-as-a-key-factor", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:54.760197Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.472302Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T20:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T20:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26638, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor?", "created_at": "2024-07-25T13:46:54.760197Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T20:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T20:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-27T20:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.\n\nThe Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nNumerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.\n\nThis question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) issues a ruling that:\n\nStrikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of a major provision of the Clean Air Act, and\nExplicitly cites the Supreme Court's June 2024 decision overturning the Chevron doctrine as a substantial factor in its reasoning.\nThe court's decision must be a final ruling, not a preliminary injunction or procedural order. If no such ruling is issued before October 1, 2024, the question resolves as **No**", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"major provision\" of the Clean Air Act is one that has broad applicability and significant impact on US air pollution regulation. Examples could include, but are not limited to, provisions related to:\n\n- National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)\n- New Source Performance Standards (NSPS)\n- New Source Review (NSR)\n- Greenhouse gas regulation under the Act\n\nAny later court rulings, such as appeal judgments that overturn the judgment of an earlier court, are immaterial to the resolution of this question: the question resolves immediately if a U.S. federal court rules in favor of a challenge to a major Clean Air Act provision, citing Chevron's overturning as a key factor. The question does not re-resolve differently if an appellate court later determines that judgment to have been unconstitutional, unlawful, or otherwise incorrect.", "post_id": 26638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089785.772468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089785.772468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.315 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.685, 0.315 ], "means": [ 0.3648267089463826 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 1.2107735182074761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4635115941739096, 0.0, 1.1827581238368072, 0.46283312074466454, 0.029941953078415226, 0.5778677609141162, 0.34848960163546905, 0.6449448312403429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15637957745998016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.1928092914876318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.628822418409993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -66.65762662748082, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -66.65762662748082 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722089785.812462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722089785.812462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7799891364979479, 0.22001086350205207 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.\n\nThe Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nNumerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.\n\nThis question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026." }, { "id": 26623, "title": "Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?", "short_title": "Pre-Loper Bright decision overturned by 2027?", "url_title": "Pre-Loper Bright decision overturned by 2027?", "slug": "pre-loper-bright-decision-overturned-by-2027", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" }, { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-24T16:59:57.096893Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T10:34:31.180685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T10:34:31.536079Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T10:34:31.536079Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26623, "title": "Before 2027, will a federal court of appeals overturn a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, citing the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as the primary reason?", "created_at": "2024-07-24T16:59:57.096893Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision in [Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loper_Bright_Enterprises_v._Raimondo). The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. \n\nAccording to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/us/politics/chevron-deference-decision-meaning.html):\n\n>...thousands of legal decisions have relied on the Chevron doctrine when challenges have been made to regulations stemming from laws like the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, the 1970 Clean Air Act, the 2010 Affordable Care Act and others.\n\nHowever, some legal experts have said that it may not be so simple to overturn previous rulings. According to lawyers writing for the firm of [Cleary Gottlieb](https://www.clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/after-chevron-what-the-supreme-courts-loper-bright-decision-changed-and-what-it-didnt): \n\n>...the Court stated that the mere fact that a prior case relied on Chevron is not a sufficient basis for overturning it now. Stare decisis is an especially powerful consideration in the context of statutory consideration, and Loper Bright sought to impose limits on a potential flood of lawsuits challenging decades worth of precedents based on Chevron. The Court cautioned that “[m]ere reliance on Chevron cannot constitute a special justification” that would justify “overruling such a holding.” Accordingly, plaintiffs will need to do more than simply point to Loper Bright when seeking to challenge an regulation that once relied on Chevron.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a federal court of appeals has published an opinion that meets these two specific criteria:\n\n1. The opinion explicitly overturns any other pre-[Loper Bright](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loper_Bright_Enterprises_v._Raimondo) decision that relied on the doctrine of [Chevron deference](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevron_U.S.A.,_Inc._v._Natural_Resources_Defense_Council,_Inc.). An opinion that merely overturns a pre–Loper Bright decision on direct appellate review will not trigger positive resolution of this question.\n\n2. The opinion cites the Supreme Court’s Loper Bright ruling as a primary reason or doing so.\n\nIf this does not happen before January 1, 2027, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Federal court of appeals\" refers to the [US Courts of Appeals](https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/court-role-and-structure/about-us-courts-appeals), which consists of the 12 Circuit Courts of Appeals and the Federal Circuit Court. It additionally refers to, for purposes of this question, the US Supreme Court.\n\nThe question resolves as Yes immediately if a federal court of appeals overturns a pre-Loper Bright decision that relied on Chevron deference, as long as that court cites the Supreme Court’s ruling in Loper Bright as a primary reason. Subsequent rulings that overturn, overrule or invalidate this overturning decision are immaterial to the resolution of this question. \n\n\"Primary reason\" means a reason integral to the court's holding.\n\nMetaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all relevant publications when resolving the question and will determine resolution based on information and reporting available via standard web searches.", "post_id": 26623, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758191660.704539, "end_time": 1758517887.036207, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758191660.704539, "end_time": 1758517887.036207, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.6372347632637232 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0868647387074961, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2891734271633438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5520276189696817 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289343.134896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289343.134896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2302361521683206, 0.7697638478316794 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision in [Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Loper_Bright_Enterprises_v._Raimondo). The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. \n\nAccording to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/us/politics/chevron-deference-decision-meaning.html):\n\n>...thousands of legal decisions have relied on the Chevron doctrine when challenges have been made to regulations stemming from laws like the 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act, the 1970 Clean Air Act, the 2010 Affordable Care Act and others.\n\nHowever, some legal experts have said that it may not be so simple to overturn previous rulings. According to lawyers writing for the firm of [Cleary Gottlieb](https://www.clearygottlieb.com/news-and-insights/publication-listing/after-chevron-what-the-supreme-courts-loper-bright-decision-changed-and-what-it-didnt): \n\n>...the Court stated that the mere fact that a prior case relied on Chevron is not a sufficient basis for overturning it now. Stare decisis is an especially powerful consideration in the context of statutory consideration, and Loper Bright sought to impose limits on a potential flood of lawsuits challenging decades worth of precedents based on Chevron. The Court cautioned that “[m]ere reliance on Chevron cannot constitute a special justification” that would justify “overruling such a holding.” Accordingly, plaintiffs will need to do more than simply point to Loper Bright when seeking to challenge an regulation that once relied on Chevron." }, { "id": 26616, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?", "short_title": "UK to Abolish Two-Child Benefit Cap by 2035?", "url_title": "UK to Abolish Two-Child Benefit Cap by 2035?", "slug": "uk-to-abolish-two-child-benefit-cap-by-2035", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-24T07:44:21.141422Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T15:50:28.465867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26616, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-07-24T07:44:21.141422Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets).", "resolution_criteria": "The UK government must officially abolish the two-child benefit cap before January 1, 2035 for the question to resolve as **Yes**. The cap must be removed in its entirety by this date, not merely announced as a future policy to be implemented. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe abolition must be confirmed through an official government announcement, for example from the official [UK Parliament](https://bills.parliament.uk/) which keeps a record of parliamentary bills.", "fine_print": "Anything below an official, complete abolishment of the two-child benefit cap, such as a suspension of it (even if it's an indefinite suspension), an increase in exemptions to it, or an increase in the cap to above 2 children, will not count.", "post_id": 26616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758297017.495751, "end_time": 1788305656.613957, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758297017.495751, "end_time": 1788305656.613957, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5930150103875712 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288401.103175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288401.103175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5344250793150168, 0.4655749206849832 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets)." } ] }
