Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2380
{ "count": 6341, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2400", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2360", "results": [ { "id": 28854, "title": "Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?", "short_title": "UK MP defection, suspension, or resignation before 2025?", "url_title": "UK MP defection, suspension, or resignation before 2025?", "slug": "uk-mp-defection-suspension-or-resignation-before-2025", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-13T21:20:47.830750Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T18:41:38.176229Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.181797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-22T18:41:38.176227Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28811, "title": "Will any more United Kingdom MPs be suspended from their party, resign, or change allegiance before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T21:20:47.830837Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-30T11:44:24.943813Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-27T17:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 15, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, at least one Member of the UK Parliament gets suspended from their party, resigns, or changes their allegiance, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "- Any change of allegiance, voluntary or not, will resolve this question as **Yes**, including but not limited to an independent MP becoming a member of a party.\n- Only party allegiance is relevant for this question. An MP joining or leaving a technical group will not affect resolution in any way.", "post_id": 28854, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730206502.700789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730206502.700789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9921780923654039 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.11525585627893538, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 8.541072406777698 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 4.4507499570287035, "peer_score": 1.078594694748686, "coverage": 0.059652542242202636, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988402895947551, "spot_peer_score": 13.148332023124345, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 4.4507499570287035, "peer_archived_score": 1.078594694748686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.148332023124345, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Kingdom has seen several MPs suspended from their parties, resign, or change political allegiance in recent years due to various factors such as political scandals, internal party conflicts, or shifting personal or ideological stances. Since the July 4, 2024 general election, seven Labour MPs [were suspended](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c978m6z3egno) for voting against the party on an amendment to scrap the two-child benefit cap, and one [resigned](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/mp-rosie-duffield-resigns-labour-keir-starmer-zxm6h8lzq) over the so-called [freebies controversy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Labour_Party_freebies_controversy)." }, { "id": 28852, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?", "short_title": "Moldova EU referendum valid turnout?", "url_title": "Moldova EU referendum valid turnout?", "slug": "moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:31:53.562862Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T21:54:15.956610Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.906226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T21:54:15.956608Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T08:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28809, "title": "[Short fuse] Will the Moldovan European Union membership referendum cross the turnout threshold to be valid?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:31:53.562957Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-17T21:53:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-17T21:53:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T08:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-21T08:11:35.389472Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must have a majority of \"Yes\" votes, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28851/yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if official results report that enough votes have been cast in the referendum to make it valid.", "fine_print": "[Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Moldovan_European_Union_membership_referendum) reports the threshold as a minimum of 33%; regardless if that, 1/3, or a different value is the exact amount, what matters for this question is that the threshold for validity is met.\n\nThe actual numbers of \"Yes\" and \"No\" votes are immaterial to this question; it resolves as **Yes** as long as the turnout meets that which is required for a valid referendum, even if most voters choose \"No\".", "post_id": 28852, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729368978.965487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729368978.965487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.8974173448796308 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12492461416876266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 1.2576020436694422, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 1.4050776483619933, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.3526517851691326, 1.5568583184119975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.8598674825769, "peer_score": 2.3846363941499886, "coverage": 0.980649494172991, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.980649494172991, "spot_peer_score": -0.22163508476800106, "baseline_archived_score": 70.8598674825769, "peer_archived_score": 2.3846363941499886, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.22163508476800106 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must have a majority of \"Yes\" votes, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28851/yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum/)." }, { "id": 28851, "title": "[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of \"Yes\" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?", "short_title": "\"Yes\" wins Moldova EU referendum?", "url_title": "\"Yes\" wins Moldova EU referendum?", "slug": "yes-wins-moldova-eu-referendum", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:19:30.492894Z", "published_at": "2024-10-15T18:50:13.806804Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.358830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-15T18:50:13.806802Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T02:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28808, "title": "[Short fuse] Will there be a majority of \"Yes\" votes in the Moldovan European Union membership referendum?", "created_at": "2024-10-13T10:19:30.492965Z", "open_time": "2024-10-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-22T02:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-22T05:21:42.166607Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must reach a turnout of 33%, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28852/moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if official results report that more votes have been cast for the \"Yes\" option than the \"No\" option in the referendum.", "fine_print": "Turnout is immaterial to the resolution, as are blank/spoiled ballots. The primary source for resolution will be the national election authority, with credible sources also accepted.", "post_id": 28851, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729375325.22741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729375325.22741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.88 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.12, 0.88 ], "means": [ 0.8766163846658992 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31791269281136625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49131933024128316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.047593500543404, 0.0, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1915275751484105, 0.6062666629314708, 0.0, 0.9852576079152029, 0.0, 0.27591447146029857, 0.09329258471159352, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 1.8321931927338486, 1.2136452046437811, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.30584150634301727 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 82.80975655993274, "peer_score": 1.584466789357159, "coverage": 0.9999203157473092, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999203157473092, "spot_peer_score": -1.3113445671455535, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 82.80975655993274, "peer_archived_score": 1.584466789357159, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.3113445671455535, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 20, alongside [presidential elections](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22788/moldovan-election-winner-2024/), Moldova will hold a referendum. If it passes, the Constitution will be amended to enshrine the country's aspiration to join the European Union. The move is intended to prevent future governments from derailing the ongoing accession process which the country, one of Europe's poorest, initiated simultaneously with Ukraine.\n\nThe campaign, and the overall strengthening of ties with Europe, are being [interfered with by the Kremlin](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/oct/12/moldova-fears-kremlin-fixing-eu-referendum-russia). 1,500 Russian troops still occupy the Transnistria region of the former Soviet republic, where an estimated €100M has been funneled to fund the vote-buying scheme against the referendum.\n\nIn order to amend the Constitution, the referendum must reach a turnout of 33%, which is the object of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/28852/moldova-eu-referendum-valid-turnout/)." }, { "id": 28847, "title": "Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?", "short_title": "Will the United Kingdom legalise assisted dying before 2030", "url_title": "Will the United Kingdom legalise assisted dying before 2030", "slug": "will-the-united-kingdom-legalise-assisted-dying-before-2030", "author_id": 113983, "author_username": "alt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-12T12:57:06.454529Z", "published_at": "2024-10-19T18:40:11.858332Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T09:58:52.485858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-19T18:40:11.858330Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-21T18:39:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28805, "title": "Will assisted dying for terminally ill adults be legal for the majority of United Kingdom residents before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-10-12T12:57:06.454626Z", "open_time": "2024-10-21T18:39:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A bill which would allow terminally ill adults with six months or fewer to live to get medical help to end their own lives [has been introduced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g9yvdrxzzo) in the House of Lords, by former Labour Justice Secretary Lord Falconer. This was followed by a similar bill, [introduced](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/16/england-and-wales-assisted-dying-bill-formally-launched-in-house-of-commons) to the House of Commons by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater. A debate and initial vote [is likely](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y8q41g5j6o) to take place later this year.\n\nThe two bills:\n- [Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3741)\n- [The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3774)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 1 January 2030, there is a legal way for more than 50% of terminally ill adult residents of the United Kigndom to request assistance to end their life.", "fine_print": "- The definition of \"terminally ill\" is intentionally left vague to allow for flexibility in interpretation, with the understanding that it generally refers to individuals with an incurable condition expected to lead to death.\n- A broad legalisation of assisted dying would resolve this question as **Yes**, it does not need to be restricted to terminally ill adults, as long as the majority of them are included.\n- A law that would require the adults to fulfill additional criteria before they can request assistance to end their life (e.g., go through a mental health assessment) would still resolve this question as **Yes**.\n- This does not need to be legal in the whole of the United Kingdom. For example, if there is a legal way only in England this question will resolve as **Yes**, as it includes a majority of the UK population.\n- The assistance must be provided by a UK healthcare provider. UK residents being allowed to travel abroad for that purpose is immaterial to the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 28847, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762855122.348117, "end_time": 1766694674.322, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762855122.348117, "end_time": 1766694674.322, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7673217718514129 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2511093491260954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7844001274199166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5352487107648383 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A bill which would allow terminally ill adults with six months or fewer to live to get medical help to end their own lives [has been introduced](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3g9yvdrxzzo) in the House of Lords, by former Labour Justice Secretary Lord Falconer. This was followed by a similar bill, [introduced](https://www.theguardian.com/society/2024/oct/16/england-and-wales-assisted-dying-bill-formally-launched-in-house-of-commons) to the House of Commons by Labour MP Kim Leadbeater. A debate and initial vote [is likely](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y8q41g5j6o) to take place later this year.\n\nThe two bills:\n- [Assisted Dying for Terminally Ill Adults Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3741)\n- [The Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill](https://bills.parliament.uk/bills/3774)" }, { "id": 38377, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Social Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-disruption-in-the-social-area-by-2075-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecline-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:20:34.444813Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.588414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37651, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Social Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:20:34.444813Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if a new ideological trend spreads in the Czech Republic within a short period of time and begins to aggressively eliminate its opponents, citizens of the Czech Republic.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. A relatively well-studied example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if a new ideological trend spreads in the Czech Republic within a short period of time and begins to aggressively eliminate its opponents, citizens of the Czech Republic.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729503508.678521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729503508.678521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.17241649440408885 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0323361294005466, 0.23128568172579037, 0.08508524734423982, 0.9916317514889486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 1.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if a new ideological trend spreads in the Czech Republic within a short period of time and begins to aggressively eliminate its opponents, citizens of the Czech Republic.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. A relatively well-studied example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans." }, { "id": 38375, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Technological Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-disruption-in-the-technological-area-by-2075-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecline-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:17:30.090415Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.264013Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37648, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Technological Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:17:30.090415Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-12T18:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-21T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if artificial intelligence-based technology in the Czech Republic began to actively resist human commands, which would have impacts on both the economy and security.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An already relatively well-researched example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if artificial intelligence-based technology in the Czech Republic began to actively resist human commands, which would have impacts on both the economy and security.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38375, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729499536.765615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.225 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729499536.765615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14412251690732064 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3423356305559753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5112618060922339, 1.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, if artificial intelligence-based technology in the Czech Republic began to actively resist human commands, which would have impacts on both the economy and security.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An already relatively well-researched example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans." }, { "id": 38374, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Environmental Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decrease of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-disruption-in-the-environmental-area-by-2075-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecrease-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T18:13:27.010185Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.119427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37655, "title": "Will there be a disruption in the Environmental Area by 2075 that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decline of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year?", "created_at": 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"description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, in the case of an asteroid impact in the Czech Republic that would kill a significant part of the Czech population.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, in the case of an asteroid impact in the Czech Republic that would kill a significant part of the Czech population.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729503966.125844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729503966.125844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.1040876161068011 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7157939482071036, 0.5689615615432293, 1.20879348632548, 0.5837483257922826, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4138723464679417, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be positively evaluated, for example, in the case of an asteroid impact in the Czech Republic that would kill a significant part of the Czech population.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans." }, { "id": 38372, "title": "By 2075, a disruption will occur in the Biological Region that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decrease of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year.", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "by-2075-a-disruption-will-occur-in-the-biological-region-that-will-cause-the-death-of-more-than-100000-czechs-within-five-years-of-its-occurrence-or-cause-the-growthdecrease-of-the-czech-republics-gdp-by-more-than-25-in-one-year", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T17:49:55.775498Z", "published_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.158028Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "closed", 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"Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 37654, "title": "By 2075, a disruption will occur in the Biological Region that will cause the death of more than 100,000 Czechs within five years of its occurrence or cause the growth/decrease of the Czech Republic's GDP by more than 25% in one year.", "created_at": "2024-10-11T17:49:55.775498Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": 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challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be evaluated positively, for example, if a pandemic spread in the Czech Republic and it was confirmed that 20,000 people had died from the disease, but we know that the statistical excess mortality rate in the given period was many times higher than usual and we have a high proportion of successful tests for the given disease.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans.", "resolution_criteria": "Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon, and it will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be evaluated positively if a pandemic spread in the Czech Republic and it was confirmed that 20,000 people died from the disease, but we know that the statistical excess mortality in the given period was many times higher than usual and we have a high proportion of successful tests for the given disease.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729504655.838082, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729504655.838082, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.16701325483422214 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7394682331392083, 0.6549933957141106, 0.29286789626133847, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1769212063177643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Disclaimer**\n\n Setting perfect decision-making criteria is extremely challenging for issues with such a long horizon. It will not always be possible to clearly attribute GDP growth or the death of people to a specific disruption, so we will primarily rely on expert estimates and creative thinking in the given areas.\n\n To give you an idea, the question would be evaluated positively, for example, if a pandemic spread in the Czech Republic and it was confirmed that 20,000 people had died from the disease, but we know that the statistical excess mortality rate in the given period was many times higher than usual and we have a high proportion of successful tests for the given disease.\n\n The definition of disruption with which it operates is also crucial for the question. These are events that can have a relatively rapid onset and are either unprecedented or their occurrence is very difficult to predict. They can be so-called black swans. An example could be a pandemic of a highly infectious disease with a very high mortality rate and resistance to all known drugs, which has the potential to completely change the functioning of the affected societies.\n\n We are attaching a table that should at least give some indication of what types of disruptions we can consider in individual areas (but it is of course not exhaustive).\n\n <a href=\"https://ibb.co/sjdRsqJ\"><img src=\"https://i.ibb.co/VVc9MTp/Sn-mek-obrazovky-2024-10-11-200855.png\" alt=\"Sn-mek-screens-2024-10-11-200855\" border=\"0\" /></a>\n\n Alternative access to the table via link - [HERE](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1J1XDJ2P1nASwHI0u1F0-h39OV4i5E7iJ/view?usp=drive_link).\n\n As can be seen, even in the case of the auxiliary table, many of them will potentially affect multiple areas - for example, nuclear weapons are also a technological threat, but they can potentially have a role in the social sphere (e.g. nuclear war).\n\n The predictions will be part of a report on the Czech Republic's preparedness for future threats and opportunities, with an emphasis on so-called black swans." }, { "id": 28841, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?", "short_title": "Will Eric Adams be the NYC Mayor on January 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Eric Adams be the NYC Mayor on January 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-eric-adams-be-the-nyc-mayor-on-january-1-2025", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T14:37:13.841313Z", "published_at": "2024-10-22T18:37:54.653763Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.797270Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-22T18:37:54.653761Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T16:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 83, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": 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"2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28801, "title": "Will Eric Adams be Mayor of New York City on the 1st of January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T14:37:13.841411Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T21:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T21:09:35.319569Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T16:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T16:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021. \n\nFollowing [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.\n\nEric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign. \n\nA [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if there are no credible reports or official announcements of the resignation or removal of Eric Adams from the position of the Mayor of New York City before the 1st of January, 2025.", "fine_print": "The suspension of the mayor by the governor is not sufficient to resolve as **Yes**, even if the mayor is suspended at the time of resolution.", "post_id": 28841, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649490.035658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.997 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649490.035658, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.997 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9947654108799213 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0021754227014258746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013873103177286015, 0.0, 0.2050974017457311, 0.010343197244188598, 0.0, 0.06438067353892736, 0.018175126021569836, 0.02035427510390197, 1.1840150723733203, 13.715435417919332 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.50109400965708, "peer_score": 17.600068970250366, "coverage": 0.9999126211622223, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999126211622223, "spot_peer_score": 28.66224471834195, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 87.50109400965708, "peer_archived_score": 17.600068970250366, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.66224471834195, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 367, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Eric Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Adams) is the Mayor of New York City, having won the [2021 mayoral race](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_New_York_City_mayoral_election) on the 2nd of November 2021. \n\nFollowing [investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Investigations_into_the_Eric_Adams_administration) by the FBI and the US attorney for the Southern District of New York into the Adams administration, on the 26th of September 2024, [US vs Adams](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Eric_Adams) was unsealed, which details five separate charges (bribery, 2 counts of solicitation of contributions from foreign nationals, wire fraud, and conspiracy to commit wire fraud) of which a grand jury voted to indict Adams.\n\nEric Adams [was arraigned](https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/27/us/eric-adams-nyc-mayor-arraignment/index.html) on the 27th of September 2024 and pleaded not guilty. Adams [has suggested](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/new-york-mayor-adams-has-been-indicted-after-corruption-probe-new-york-times-2024-09-26/) that he plans to remain in office whilst fighting the charges, and has rebuffed [calls](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2024/09/27/congress/nadler-calls-on-adams-to-resign-00181411) from 5 democratic members of congress and dozens of local elected officials to resign. Τhe Governor of New York, Kathy Hochul, [has also resisted](https://nypost.com/2024/09/26/us-news/hochul-stops-short-of-telling-eric-adams-to-resign-gives-nyc-mayor-a-few-days-to-think/) calls to remove Adams and House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries [has said](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/jeffries-says-eric-adams-should-not-resign-00182570) that Adams should not resign. \n\nA [Marist College poll](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/04/eric-adams-resignation-poll-00182509) conducted from September 30 to October 1 of 1,073 registered voters in New York City found that 65% of respondents believed Adams had committed illegal acts and 70% wanted him to resign; if he doesn't, 63% want Hochul to remove him. The governor [has the power](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mayor_of_New_York_City#Removal_from_office) to remove the mayor after hearing his case, and also has the power to suspend the mayor for 30 days whilst deciding whether or not to remove him. There are also procedures to remove the mayor without the governor's involvement, but they have never been used before." }, { "id": 28834, "title": "Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?", "short_title": "2024 World Chess Champion in the first 10 games?", "url_title": "2024 World Chess Champion in the first 10 games?", "slug": "2024-world-chess-champion-in-the-first-10-games", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-11T10:01:01.937380Z", "published_at": "2024-11-06T00:15:08.297257Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.548316Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-11-06T00:15:08.297255Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3672, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q4", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/q4-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-08T13:00:25Z", "close_date": "2025-01-10T05:30:25Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-30T16:51:26.101402Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-03T20:02:59.488954Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28798, "title": "Will the 2024 World Chess Champion be decided in the first 10 games?", "created_at": "2024-10-11T10:01:01.937489Z", "open_time": "2024-11-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-10T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-10T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-05T20:06:04.024260Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T13:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.\n\nAs of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.\n\nThe match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. \n\nIn chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.\n\nThe time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either player in the 2024 World Chess Championship match reaches 7.5 points before the 11th classical game (e.g. by winning 5 games and drawing another 5).\n\nThis question will also resolve as **Yes** if for any other reason the 2024 Chess Champion is declared by FIDE before the 11th classical game is played (e.g. a player forteits the match or is disqualified during the match).", "fine_print": "* If the match is played by any other players than Ding Liren and Gukesh Dommaraju, the question will be **Annulled**.\n* If the result of the game 10 is not known by 7 January 2025 (and the 2024 Chess Champion is still not declared by that date) the question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n* If the results of one or more of the first 10 games are annulled, then these games are not included in the count of the games for the resolution. This includes the case when both players receive 0 points for the game for violating Fair Play policy.\n* If the 2024 Chess Champion title is later revoked (e.g. due to revealed fact of cheating), it will not affect the question resolution.", "post_id": 28834, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733292248.53252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733292248.53252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003138846255140642 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.816855755117352, 0.09578707349426503, 0.0471123603738702, 0.1424639356161183, 0.0, 0.05619459079047469, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.005537830714382473, 0.10669430773056678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072394993156304705, 0.0, 0.009167091186681414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 80.7187232582232, "peer_score": 6.798970443270981, "coverage": 0.8915853368652449, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999974142523373, "spot_peer_score": 9.459378148494888, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 80.7187232582232, "peer_archived_score": 6.798970443270981, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.459378148494888, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [World Chess Championship 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Chess_Championship_2024) match between the reigning world champion Ding Liren (Rating: 2728 as of 1 Nov 2024) and the challenger Gukesh Dommaraju (Rating: 2783 as of 1 Nov 2024) is set to take place between 25 November and 13 December 2024, in Singapore.\n\nAs of November 1st, 2024, Ding Liren is [23rd in the world](https://2700chess.com/), but was in the top 5 for 6 consecutive years, reaching as high as #2, with his top rating being the 12th highest in the history of chess. He also [used to have](https://en.chessbase.com/post/ding-liren-profile-2024-fide) the longest unbeaten streak of 100 games, until Carsen surpassed it. Gukesh D has his own [set of achievements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gukesh_Dommaraju), being the third-youngest grandmaster in history, the third-youngest to reach a chess rating of 2700, the youngest to reach a rating of 2750, the youngest Candidates Tournament winner and the youngest contender to compete for the World Championship.\n\nThe match will be best of 14 games; a score of at least 7½ would win the world championship. If the score is equal after 14 games, tiebreak games with faster time controls will be played. \n\nIn chess a win is 1 point and a draw is ½ point with a high tendency towards draws at the highest level.\n\nThe time control for each game in the classical portion of the match is 120 minutes per side for the first 40 moves and 30 minutes for the rest of the game, with a 30-second increment per move starting with move 41." }, { "id": 28830, "title": "Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?", "short_title": "90% of US road vehicles sold in 2075 have Level 5 autonomy?", "url_title": "90% of US road vehicles sold in 2075 have Level 5 autonomy?", "slug": "90-of-us-road-vehicles-sold-in-2075-have-level-5-autonomy", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-10T23:38:28.393423Z", "published_at": "2024-10-10T23:39:37.038780Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T05:52:46.543026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-10T23:39:37.038778Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-03-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28796, "title": "Will at least 95% of all new road vehicles with 4+ wheels sold in the US in 2075 have SAE Level 5 autonomy?", "created_at": "2024-10-10T23:38:28.393506Z", "open_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-11T02:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-03-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-01-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SAE International uses a [classification of 6 levels](https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update), from 0 to 5, for self-driving capabilities. Level 5 correspond to full automation where the passengers are never requested to take over driving and the car can drive in all areas and conditions. As of October 2024, [no system has achieved level 5 autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car).\n\n*This question is prompted by a [claim by Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1844263097244189044) that: \"...all transport will be fully autonomous within 50 years.\"*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if available data at the time suggest that the percentage of new road vehicles sold in the United States, from January 1, 2075 to December 31, 2075, that have SAE level 5 capabilities is equal to or higher than 95%.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, road vehicles are defined as motorised machines with **a minimum of 4 wheels** designed for use on roads to transport people, goods, or materials. These include cars, trucks, and buses.\n\nData used to resolve this question need not cover all road vehicle sales in the US and Metaculus admins might use their judgement to determine the resolution.", "fine_print": "In cases of ambiguity, admins may wait for up to 6 months, until July 1, 2076, to resolve the question.\n\nMilitary, fire, emergency, or law enforcement vehicles are excluded for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 28830, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761717155.941397, "end_time": 1793253155.613, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761717155.941397, "end_time": 1793253155.613, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.8328686873781227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2655483121669418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6609704774759386, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3853915778427911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7458673476540376, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.31791269281136625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06146423351958825, 0.28794148447432993, 0.6771428984459005, 0.0, 1.5517088625864877, 3.0057605219283143, 0.0, 0.5553572109683369, 0.23476588978119836, 0.6699673919187739 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SAE International uses a [classification of 6 levels](https://www.sae.org/blog/sae-j3016-update), from 0 to 5, for self-driving capabilities. Level 5 correspond to full automation where the passengers are never requested to take over driving and the car can drive in all areas and conditions. As of October 2024, [no system has achieved level 5 autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-driving_car).\n\n*This question is prompted by a [claim by Elon Musk](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1844263097244189044) that: \"...all transport will be fully autonomous within 50 years.\"*" }, { "id": 28829, "title": "What is the probability that a Westbound Amtrak Sunset Limited train reports a delay of more than 4 hours upon arriving at its terminus before the 10:00 AM on 10/24?", "short_title": "train delays???", "url_title": "train delays???", "slug": "train-delays", "author_id": 147748, "author_username": "quinoa", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-10-10T23:02:46.637908Z", "published_at": "2024-10-10T23:03:10.740671Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.875356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-10T23:03:10.740669Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-20T23:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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