Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=240
{ "count": 6252, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=260", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=220", "results": [ { "id": 39782, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-beyond-meat-file-for-bankruptcy-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-08T01:15:51.254293Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T01:17:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T11:47:54.165703Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-08T01:17:57.761439Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "š±", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "š¼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39236, "title": "Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-08T01:15:51.254741Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-13T01:17:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-13T01:17:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2025, plant-based protein manufacturer Beyond Meat [denied](https://plantbasednews.org/news/economics/beyond-meat-denies-filing-for-bankruptcy/) filing bankruptcy in response to what it called \"unequivocally false\" rumors. Its quarterly and annual reports can be read [here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1655210\\&owner=exclude), including its most recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655210/000165521025000159/bynd-20250628.htm), which showed it down to \\$103 million in cash, declining revenues, and -\\$65.4 million in free cash flow in the 6 months through June 28, 2025. \r\n\r\nSee also from The Food Institute: [Beyond Meat on the Verge of Financial Ruin](https://foodinstitute.com/focus/beyond-meat-on-the-verge-of-financial-ruin/)\r\n\r\nAlso from Metaculus: [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2026/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Beyond Meat, Inc., files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before November 1, 2025. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761824863.468101, "end_time": 1762325227.754, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761824863.468101, "end_time": 1762325227.754, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.07488653709114976 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.737818288899848, 1.6092561079646124, 0.5728271201615263, 0.522155241394641, 1.0, 2.556769793836188, 0.0, 0.16442976034727774, 0.6634107050684073, 0.0, 0.966730380043651, 0.012431064033118435, 0.09501865743952613, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1077615770367786, 0.5770453408276514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.1792663589359841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002164380995132114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2936757196039515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029741897568960904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.431007191772122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06643589792322273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02872939583514363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 528, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2025, plant-based protein manufacturer Beyond Meat [denied](https://plantbasednews.org/news/economics/beyond-meat-denies-filing-for-bankruptcy/) filing bankruptcy in response to what it called \"unequivocally false\" rumors. Its quarterly and annual reports can be read [here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1655210\\&owner=exclude), including its most recent [quarterly report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1655210/000165521025000159/bynd-20250628.htm), which showed it down to \\$103 million in cash, declining revenues, and -\\$65.4 million in free cash flow in the 6 months through June 28, 2025. \r\n\r\nSee also from The Food Institute: [Beyond Meat on the Verge of Financial Ruin](https://foodinstitute.com/focus/beyond-meat-on-the-verge-of-financial-ruin/)\r\n\r\nAlso from Metaculus: [Will Beyond Meat file for bankruptcy protection before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12112/beyond-meat-bankruptcy-before-2026/)" }, { "id": 39780, "title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-japans-house-of-representatives-be-dissolved-before-november-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-07T18:06:49.778801Z", "published_at": "2025-09-07T18:53:11Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.366703Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-07T18:54:26.220203Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-09T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39229, "title": "Will Japan's House of Representatives be dissolved before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-07T18:06:49.779406Z", "open_time": "2025-09-09T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-12T18:53:11Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-12T18:53:11Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/07/japan-prime-minister-ishiba-shigeru-announces-his-resignation.html) he will resign following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's [stunning](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/07/27/ldps-historic-electoral-defeat-upends-japans-politics/) defeat in the 2025 [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) for Japan's upper house, the House of Councillors. The election also was marked by the [rise](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/08/31/sanseito-forces-japan-to-confront-its-quiet-divisions/) of the right-wing populist [Sanseito Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanseit%C5%8D), which opposes mass immigration to Japan. \n\nIn October 2024, Japan's House of Representatives [was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/japan-politics-ishiba-pariament-dissolution-election-6e7ffd74ff17e263b8aea1283f0afbe8) following the resignation of then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. A similar dissolution [occurred](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/14/1045895456/japans-new-pm-dissolves-lower-house-for-oct-31-national-election) in 2021. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Japan's House of Representatives is dissolved before November 1, 2025. ", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761827727.99194, "end_time": 1762432527.794, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761827727.99194, "end_time": 1762432527.794, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.055828380961017006 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0698584982768016, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.9707539148649986, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9511953846115452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 495, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru has [announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/07/japan-prime-minister-ishiba-shigeru-announces-his-resignation.html) he will resign following the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's [stunning](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/07/27/ldps-historic-electoral-defeat-upends-japans-politics/) defeat in the 2025 [election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election) for Japan's upper house, the House of Councillors. The election also was marked by the [rise](https://eastasiaforum.org/2025/08/31/sanseito-forces-japan-to-confront-its-quiet-divisions/) of the right-wing populist [Sanseito Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sanseit%C5%8D), which opposes mass immigration to Japan. \n\nIn October 2024, Japan's House of Representatives [was dissolved](https://apnews.com/article/japan-politics-ishiba-pariament-dissolution-election-6e7ffd74ff17e263b8aea1283f0afbe8) following the resignation of then-Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. A similar dissolution [occurred](https://www.npr.org/2021/10/14/1045895456/japans-new-pm-dissolves-lower-house-for-oct-31-national-election) in 2021. " }, { "id": 39773, "title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the US & Venezuela before Nov 1, 2025?", "url_title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the US & Venezuela before Nov 1, 2025?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-fatal-clash-between-the-us-venezuela-before-nov-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-06T16:30:49.596442Z", "published_at": "2025-09-06T18:08:22Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T11:47:27.283824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-06T18:09:16.855532Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-07T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39216, "title": "Will there be a fatal clash between the military forces of the United States and Venezuela before November 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-06T16:30:49.596815Z", "open_time": "2025-09-07T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T18:08:22Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T18:08:22Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-11-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "BBC September 6, 2025 [Trump says Venezuelan jets will be shot down if they endanger US ships](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr70511v774o)\n\n> Donald Trump has warned that, if Venezuelan jets fly over US naval ships and \"put us in a dangerous position, they'll be shot down\".\n\n> The president's warning comes after Venezuela flew military aircraft near a US vessel off South America for the second time in two days, US officials told the BBC's US partner CBS News.\n\n> The reports follow a US strike against what Trump officials said was a \"drug-carrying vessel from Venezuela\" operated by a gang, killing 11 people.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after September 6, 2025 and before November 1, 2025, according to public, [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) there is any fatal clash between personnel of the [United States Armed Forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Armed_Forces) and personnel of the [National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Bolivarian_Armed_Forces_of_Venezuela) resulting in 1 or more deaths of military personnel on either side. ", "fine_print": "To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as close-quarters combat. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.", "post_id": 39773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761824836.708775, "end_time": 1761846665.384, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761824836.708775, "end_time": 1761846665.384, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04896389322532091 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1518956008843673, 1.0736949279422285, 2.7439142858604035, 0.22459236340393357, 2.0688824973116264, 0.21155731050056245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.2474239191083502, 0.10219337284292168, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3185555210883373, 0.07068444313541063, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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days, US officials told the BBC's US partner CBS News.\n\n> The reports follow a US strike against what Trump officials said was a \"drug-carrying vessel from Venezuela\" operated by a gang, killing 11 people." }, { "id": 39771, "title": "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?", "short_title": "Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?", "url_title": "Stronger 2025 Atlantic hurricane than Erin?", "slug": "stronger-2025-atlantic-hurricane-than-erin", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-06T14:12:10.028996Z", "published_at": "2025-09-20T08:00:24Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T22:59:07.443146Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-20T08:00:55.239061Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-27T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "š±", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39214, "title": "Will there be a stronger hurricane than Erin during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season?", "created_at": "2025-09-06T14:12:10.029379Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-27T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-27T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-27T21:09:07.495822Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-30T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-27T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [SaffirāSimpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n\nStill, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if an Atlantic hurricane reaches maximum sustained winds of more than 160 mph before December 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "The primary source for this question will be the [US National Hurricane Center](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc).", "post_id": 39771, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761577090.229297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761577090.229297, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.21371405794152987 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.44430258287095836, 0.7969621873979889, 0.014966119508196492, 0.33789275657336876, 0.6500309375065833, 1.724814667676628, 1.089736932795084, 1.235412032177611, 0.4418583912301043, 0.01618032019129673, 0.8586132483320502, 0.0009563499045180881, 0.841656866839247, 0.018175126021569836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3243943504389755, 0.02035427510390197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6110402836301606, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.9189695407607155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38658567053559373, 0.31490076724293836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5738684111208553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6930866404304145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028134217409661617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8865754792578854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003276927759296195 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -265.3311498112651, "peer_score": -24.907883118598093, "coverage": 0.9308748055941533, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997462112586369, "spot_peer_score": -2.362070856198615, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -265.3311498112651, "peer_archived_score": -24.907883118598093, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.362070856198615, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In August 2025, [Hurricane Erin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Erin_\\(2025\\)) swept across the Atlantic Ocean and then moved through the northern Caribbean before skirting up the east coast of the United States and heading back out to sea. At its peak intensity, it reached 160 mph [maximum sustained wind](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maximum_sustained_wind), classifying it as a Category 5: the highest category on the [SaffirāSimpson](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale) hurricane-intensity scale.\n\nStill, it was no record-breaker. The most powerful Atlantic hurricane on record remains [Allen](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Allen), which in 1980 reached maximum sustained winds of 190 mph. And more recently, [Hurricane Milton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Milton) reached 180 mph in October 2024." }, { "id": 39770, "title": "Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-nicholas-maduro-cease-to-be-president-of-venezuela-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-06T13:36:40.929164Z", "published_at": "2025-09-06T13:47:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T11:47:19.833995Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-06T13:48:43.284452Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-07T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:35:38.651077Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39213, "title": "Will Nicholas Maduro cease to be president of Venezuela before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-06T13:36:40.929540Z", "open_time": "2025-09-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T13:47:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T13:47:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions have been rising between the United States and Venezuela, as the US has been deploying military assets around Venezuela. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/us/politics/trump-maduro-military-venezuela.html): \n\n> The military so far has deployed eight warships, several Navy P-8 surveillance planes and one attack submarine to the region. The Pentagon has offered few details on the forceās objectives and locations.\n\n> The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group ā including the U.S.S. San Antonio, the U.S.S. Iwo Jima and the U.S.S. Fort Lauderdale, carrying 4,500 sailors āwas steaming near Puerto Rico on Friday, Defense Department officials said. So was the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, with 2,200 Marines. The Iwo Jima is equipped with AV-8B Harrier attack aircraft.\n\n> Two Navy guided-missile destroyers ā the U.S.S. Jason Dunham and the U.S.S. Gravely ā are operating in the southern Caribbean. Both warships had recently joined the campaign against the Houthi militia in the Red Sea. A third destroyer, the U.S.S. Sampson, now in the eastern Pacific, may soon join, one Navy official said.\n\nThere have been [calls](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5471918-the-us-should-overthrow-maduro-in-venezuela/) within the US to overthrow Maduro, and the White House has [described](https://www.foxnews.com/video/6377091663112) Maduro as a \"narco-terror\" leader. However, US President Donald J. Trump on September 5, 2025 [denied](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/05/politics/trump-weighs-strikes-targeting-cartels-inside-venezuela) the US is seeking regime change in Venezuela. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) NicolĆ”s Maduro Moros ceases to be the [President of Venezuela](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/President_of_Venezuela) before January 1, 2026, for any reason. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39770, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761824829.014609, "end_time": 1761871038.019, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.093 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761824829.014609, "end_time": 1761871038.019, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.093 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.907, 0.093 ], "means": [ 0.15698353586249159 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5724472223148853, 0.141637135227838, 0.6587275981929013, 0.11160910633783082, 0.16798662710965054, 1.0451410835748718, 0.0, 1.4686613854574821, 0.0, 1.4829568200551118, 1.1848204221051952, 0.02581358824615143, 0.21572547604369705, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.791569387092605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 481, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions have been rising between the United States and Venezuela, as the US has been deploying military assets around Venezuela. According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/05/us/politics/trump-maduro-military-venezuela.html): \n\n> The military so far has deployed eight warships, several Navy P-8 surveillance planes and one attack submarine to the region. The Pentagon has offered few details on the forceās objectives and locations.\n\n> The Iwo Jima Amphibious Ready Group ā including the U.S.S. San Antonio, the U.S.S. Iwo Jima and the U.S.S. Fort Lauderdale, carrying 4,500 sailors āwas steaming near Puerto Rico on Friday, Defense Department officials said. So was the 22nd Marine Expeditionary Unit, with 2,200 Marines. The Iwo Jima is equipped with AV-8B Harrier attack aircraft.\n\n> Two Navy guided-missile destroyers ā the U.S.S. Jason Dunham and the U.S.S. Gravely ā are operating in the southern Caribbean. Both warships had recently joined the campaign against the Houthi militia in the Red Sea. A third destroyer, the U.S.S. Sampson, now in the eastern Pacific, may soon join, one Navy official said.\n\nThere have been [calls](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/5471918-the-us-should-overthrow-maduro-in-venezuela/) within the US to overthrow Maduro, and the White House has [described](https://www.foxnews.com/video/6377091663112) Maduro as a \"narco-terror\" leader. However, US President Donald J. Trump on September 5, 2025 [denied](https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/05/politics/trump-weighs-strikes-targeting-cartels-inside-venezuela) the US is seeking regime change in Venezuela. " }, { "id": 39764, "title": "Will Angela Rayner join \"Your Party\" before the next UK general Election?", "short_title": "Will Rayner join \"Your Party\"?", "url_title": "Will Rayner join \"Your Party\"?", "slug": "will-rayner-join-your-party", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-06T08:56:15.854355Z", "published_at": "2025-09-21T01:35:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-27T16:15:07.738091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-21T01:35:59.508176Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-10T10:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-11-10T10:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-22T01:35:45Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39172, "title": "Will Angela Rayner join \"Your Party\" before the next UK general Election?", "created_at": "2025-09-06T08:56:15.854854Z", "open_time": "2025-09-22T01:35:45Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-26T01:35:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-26T01:35:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-11-10T10:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-10T10:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-10-10T10:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[\"Your Party\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Your_Party_\\(UK\\)) is a left-wing party created in 2025 by ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and ex-Labour MP Zarah Sultana. \n\n[Angela Rayner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Rayner) is a high-profile left-wing politician in the UK who, until the 5th of September 2025, served as the deputy prime minister, housing minister, and deputy leader of the Labour Party. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Angela Rayner joins \"Your Party\" before the next UK general election.", "fine_print": "If \"Your Party\" renames or evolves into a new party or organisation, this question will still resolve as Yes if Angela Rayner joins the party.", "post_id": 39764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761581697.013855, "end_time": 1766877157.362, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761581697.013855, "end_time": 1766877157.362, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.11943472737261551 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6942871633258809, 0.09754477024200368, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4499044766331968, 0.8775498713116066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8756349482607579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39870004350989935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7576333089753814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[\"Your Party\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Your_Party_\\(UK\\)) is a left-wing party created in 2025 by ex-Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn and ex-Labour MP Zarah Sultana. \n\n[Angela Rayner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Angela_Rayner) is a high-profile left-wing politician in the UK who, until the 5th of September 2025, served as the deputy prime minister, housing minister, and deputy leader of the Labour Party. " }, { "id": 39760, "title": "Will any U.S. state enact or enforce new public-health restrictions on entry of residents of other U.S. states before 2029?", "short_title": "U.S. interstate-travel restrictions before 2029?", "url_title": "U.S. interstate-travel restrictions before 2029?", "slug": "us-interstate-travel-restrictions-before-2029", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-05T19:47:50.241268Z", "published_at": "2025-09-23T01:59:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-29T14:36:16.050018Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-23T02:00:37.123709Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T10:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-24T01:59:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "āļø", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "š¦ ", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39156, "title": "Will any U.S. state enact or enforce new public-health restrictions on entry of residents of other U.S. states before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-09-05T19:47:50.241743Z", "open_time": "2025-09-24T01:59:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-28T01:59:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-28T01:59:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T10:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-30T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Constitutional Framework for Interstate Travel**\n\nThe constitutional right to interstate travel encompasses three distinct components: the right to enter and leave states, the right to be treated as a welcome visitor rather than hostile stranger, and for permanent residents, the right to equal treatment with other state citizens. [This right is considered fundamental under the Constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_under_United_States_law), though it lacks explicit textual support and is instead derived from multiple constitutional provisions including the Privileges and Immunities Clause.\n\nHowever, this right is not absolute during public health emergencies. States possess \"police power\"āthe broad authority to protect public health and welfareāand the Supreme Court has long upheld quarantine laws against Commerce Clause challenges, establishing in Oregon-Washington Railroad v. Washington (1926) that states may establish quarantines against people, animals, or plants that may spread disease, [even if such measures affect interstate commerce](https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/can-states-restrict-travelers-other-states). The constitutional test is whether negative effects on commerce are incidental to an evenhanded effort to address legitimate public interests.\n\n**Historical Notable Examples of limiting interstate travel**\n\nEarly precedents include the 1868 Supreme Court case Crandall v. Nevada, which declared freedom of movement a fundamental right and prohibited states from inhibiting people from leaving by taxing them. The 1920 United States v. Wheeler case was significant for being the first to locate the right to travel specifically in the privileges and immunities clause, providing constitutional protection.\n\nPrior to COVID-19, public health emergency declarations were relatively rare. Through July 2013, only 8 states had issued 11 public health emergency declarations, mostly related to H1N1 influenza in 2009. Five states issued declarations within days of the federal [H1N1 emergency declaration on April 26, 2009](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4151908/), including Texas (which had the second-highest confirmed cases and first death), Florida, Iowa, Maryland, and Wisconsin.\n\n**Recent Examples of Interstate Travel Limitations**\n\nThe COVID-19 pandemic marked an unprecedented expansion of state emergency powers. Numerous states implemented interstate travel restrictions, including quarantine requirements for travelers from certain states with high case rates, ranging from universal policies (like Rhode Island requiring all visitors to quarantine) to [targeted restrictions based on disease prevalence](https://ballotpedia.org/Travel_restrictions_issued_by_states_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_\\(COVID-19\\)_pandemic,_2020-2022). Chicago notably implemented city-level restrictions requiring travelers from surge states including Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah to quarantine for 14 days.\n\nMost restrictions were lifted by 2021-2022, with Hawaii ending quarantine requirements for vaccinated travelers in July 2021 and Connecticut terminating all travel restrictions by March 2021. Post-pandemic, state legislators introduced over 1,500 bills addressing public health authority between January 2021 and May 2022, with 191 enacted across 43 states and DCāincluding 17 expanding emergency authority and 65 contracting it.\n\n**Recent MAHA-MAGA Actions Affecting Vaccination and Public Health**\n\nThe Trump administration's \"Make America Healthy Again\" (MAHA) agenda, led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has created significant uncertainty around vaccination policy. [Reports indicate the administration plans to remove COVID-19 vaccines from the U.S. market \"within months\"](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-rfk-jr-ban-covid-095459225.html), with Kennedy's associates claiming this decision will come despite likely causing \"fear of chaos\" and major legal ramifications. [Kennedy has already canceled \\$500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine development](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74dzdddvmjo), and the [MAHA commission's report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/MAHA-Report-The-White-House.pdf) calls for increased scrutiny of childhood vaccine schedules, questioning school vaccination mandates.\n\nThese federal policy shifts coincide with state-level actions undermining vaccination requirements. [Florida announced plans to become the first state to end all vaccine mandates](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0e485wwwo), including for school enrollment, with Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo calling vaccine mandates \"wrong\" and comparing them to \"slavery\". Florida already leads the Southeast in non-medical vaccine exemptions among kindergartners, logging 10,556 non-medical exemptions in 2024-25.\n\nThe timing is particularly concerning given [measles resurgence trends](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html). Vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergartners has decreased from 95.2% during 2019-2020 to 92.7% in 2023-2024, leaving approximately 280,000 kindergartners at risk. [A June 2025 study](https://time.com/7290450/measles-vaccination-rates-declining-study/) found that 78% of counties analyzed reported vaccination rate declines, with mean rates dropping from 94% to 91% - well below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.\n\n[The current measles situation is unprecedented](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON561): from January 1 to March 20, 2025, 378 cases were reported across 17 states with two deaths - the first measles deaths in the U.S. since 2015. There have been 35 outbreaks reported in 2025 compared to only 16 in all of 2024. This combination of declining vaccination rates, federal policy uncertainty, state-level mandate rollbacks, and active disease outbreaks creates conditions where individual states might consider interstate travel restrictions to protect their populations from unvaccinated travelers carrying vaccine-preventable diseases.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **YES** if any U.S. state government enacts, implements, or enforces a policy that restricts interstate travel for the general public based on public health emergency authority before January 1, 2029. Resolution must be according to official public notice by the state.", "fine_print": "**Qualifying Restrictions Include:**\n\n* Mandatory quarantine requirements for travelers from other states\n* Prohibition on entry from specific U.S. states or regions\n* Required health screenings, testing, or documentation for interstate travelers\n* Closure of state borders to non-essential travel\n* Any policy that significantly impedes or conditions interstate movement\n\n**Requirements for Resolution:**\n\n1. **State-Level Action**: The restriction must be enacted by a state government (governor, state health department, or state legislature). Local or municipal restrictions do not count.\n2. **Public Health Emergency Authority**: The restriction must be explicitly justified by or implemented under:\n * A declared public health emergency\n * Public health emergency powers or statutes\n * Emergency health authority\n * Disease control or quarantine laws\n3. **Interstate Travel Focus**: The policy must specifically target or apply to people traveling between U.S. states, not just international travelers.\n4. **General Public Application**: Restrictions must apply to ordinary citizens. Exclusions for pre-existing legal restrictions on specific populations (convicted felons, parolees, etc.) do not count.\n5. **Implementation Attempt**: The state must take concrete steps to implement the restriction. It is immaterial whether the restriction is later blocked by courts, reversed, or unsuccessful.", "post_id": 39760, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759156565.478378, "end_time": 1766701479.093, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759156565.478378, "end_time": 1766701479.093, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21834571413009235 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Constitutional Framework for Interstate Travel**\n\nThe constitutional right to interstate travel encompasses three distinct components: the right to enter and leave states, the right to be treated as a welcome visitor rather than hostile stranger, and for permanent residents, the right to equal treatment with other state citizens. [This right is considered fundamental under the Constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_of_movement_under_United_States_law), though it lacks explicit textual support and is instead derived from multiple constitutional provisions including the Privileges and Immunities Clause.\n\nHowever, this right is not absolute during public health emergencies. States possess \"police power\"āthe broad authority to protect public health and welfareāand the Supreme Court has long upheld quarantine laws against Commerce Clause challenges, establishing in Oregon-Washington Railroad v. Washington (1926) that states may establish quarantines against people, animals, or plants that may spread disease, [even if such measures affect interstate commerce](https://www.heritage.org/crime-and-justice/commentary/can-states-restrict-travelers-other-states). The constitutional test is whether negative effects on commerce are incidental to an evenhanded effort to address legitimate public interests.\n\n**Historical Notable Examples of limiting interstate travel**\n\nEarly precedents include the 1868 Supreme Court case Crandall v. Nevada, which declared freedom of movement a fundamental right and prohibited states from inhibiting people from leaving by taxing them. The 1920 United States v. Wheeler case was significant for being the first to locate the right to travel specifically in the privileges and immunities clause, providing constitutional protection.\n\nPrior to COVID-19, public health emergency declarations were relatively rare. Through July 2013, only 8 states had issued 11 public health emergency declarations, mostly related to H1N1 influenza in 2009. Five states issued declarations within days of the federal [H1N1 emergency declaration on April 26, 2009](https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4151908/), including Texas (which had the second-highest confirmed cases and first death), Florida, Iowa, Maryland, and Wisconsin.\n\n**Recent Examples of Interstate Travel Limitations**\n\nThe COVID-19 pandemic marked an unprecedented expansion of state emergency powers. Numerous states implemented interstate travel restrictions, including quarantine requirements for travelers from certain states with high case rates, ranging from universal policies (like Rhode Island requiring all visitors to quarantine) to [targeted restrictions based on disease prevalence](https://ballotpedia.org/Travel_restrictions_issued_by_states_in_response_to_the_coronavirus_\\(COVID-19\\)_pandemic,_2020-2022). Chicago notably implemented city-level restrictions requiring travelers from surge states including Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, California, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Nevada, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, and Utah to quarantine for 14 days.\n\nMost restrictions were lifted by 2021-2022, with Hawaii ending quarantine requirements for vaccinated travelers in July 2021 and Connecticut terminating all travel restrictions by March 2021. Post-pandemic, state legislators introduced over 1,500 bills addressing public health authority between January 2021 and May 2022, with 191 enacted across 43 states and DCāincluding 17 expanding emergency authority and 65 contracting it.\n\n**Recent MAHA-MAGA Actions Affecting Vaccination and Public Health**\n\nThe Trump administration's \"Make America Healthy Again\" (MAHA) agenda, led by HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has created significant uncertainty around vaccination policy. [Reports indicate the administration plans to remove COVID-19 vaccines from the U.S. market \"within months\"](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/trump-rfk-jr-ban-covid-095459225.html), with Kennedy's associates claiming this decision will come despite likely causing \"fear of chaos\" and major legal ramifications. [Kennedy has already canceled \\$500 million in funding for mRNA vaccine development](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c74dzdddvmjo), and the [MAHA commission's report](https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/MAHA-Report-The-White-House.pdf) calls for increased scrutiny of childhood vaccine schedules, questioning school vaccination mandates.\n\nThese federal policy shifts coincide with state-level actions undermining vaccination requirements. [Florida announced plans to become the first state to end all vaccine mandates](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg0e485wwwo), including for school enrollment, with Surgeon General Joseph Ladapo calling vaccine mandates \"wrong\" and comparing them to \"slavery\". Florida already leads the Southeast in non-medical vaccine exemptions among kindergartners, logging 10,556 non-medical exemptions in 2024-25.\n\nThe timing is particularly concerning given [measles resurgence trends](https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html). Vaccination coverage among U.S. kindergartners has decreased from 95.2% during 2019-2020 to 92.7% in 2023-2024, leaving approximately 280,000 kindergartners at risk. [A June 2025 study](https://time.com/7290450/measles-vaccination-rates-declining-study/) found that 78% of counties analyzed reported vaccination rate declines, with mean rates dropping from 94% to 91% - well below the 95% threshold needed for herd immunity.\n\n[The current measles situation is unprecedented](https://www.who.int/emergencies/disease-outbreak-news/item/2025-DON561): from January 1 to March 20, 2025, 378 cases were reported across 17 states with two deaths - the first measles deaths in the U.S. since 2015. There have been 35 outbreaks reported in 2025 compared to only 16 in all of 2024. This combination of declining vaccination rates, federal policy uncertainty, state-level mandate rollbacks, and active disease outbreaks creates conditions where individual states might consider interstate travel restrictions to protect their populations from unvaccinated travelers carrying vaccine-preventable diseases." }, { "id": 39756, "title": "Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?", "url_title": "Alina Habba still U.S. Attorney at end of 2025?", "slug": "alina-habba-still-us-attorney-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 103907, "author_username": "darkives", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-05T01:08:05.642687Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T21:46:51Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T13:03:43.701544Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-05T21:51:01.426106Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 157, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "āļø", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39152, "title": "Will Alina Habba still be the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey on December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-05T01:08:05.643043Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-15T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-29T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-29T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n\nUnder [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n\nGrace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n\nFederal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on December 31, 2025, Alina Habba is the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey.", "fine_print": "Whether or not Alina Habba is serving in an interim or a permanent capacity will have no impact to this question.\n\nIf credible sources disagree as to who the head of the office is, the question will resolve according to the [U.S. Attorney's Office's website](https://www.justice.gov/usao-nj).", "post_id": 39756, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761820423.970276, "end_time": 1762020647.089, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761820423.970276, "end_time": 1762020647.089, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7130270894451196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.02547085730884873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9690523218191195, 0.0, 0.015473436248894072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9461206906142233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003173881331863867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8460382388409197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299702702416284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5021859182392427, 0.014518648859770718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0887319228627799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001092466646874047, 1.2757617790705869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010105148013901149, 0.04326262704887894, 0.0, 0.06516519198932734, 0.0, 0.07633790635439028, 1.5605003734237517, 0.7861288633724184, 0.9089660302210626, 0.011415200401430712, 0.13747443227290793, 0.5703176580309206, 0.6953049987255124, 0.33050047398128846, 1.7929492987113291, 0.3553739934197956, 1.2689320160430642, 0.0, 0.47295204745398656, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5428715843102705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2084776489493263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9888881161055912 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1878, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Alina Habba](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alina_Habba) is a New Jersey lawyer who first came to prominence as a lawyer for then-former President Donald Trump in [2021](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-lawsuit-new-york-times-alina-habba/2021/09/22/8acaf1c2-1bce-11ec-a99a-5fea2b2da34b_story.html). On March 24, 2025, after Trump retook the presidency, he [nominated Habba](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/24/nyregion/trump-alina-habba-new-jersey-us-attorney.html) to serve as the Interim U.S. Attorney for the District of New Jersey, replacing John Giordano, who had previously been named the Interim U.S. Attorney on March 3, 2025.\n\nUnder [federal law](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/28/546), Interim U.S. Attorneys may serve for only 120 days, unless they are confirmed as the U.S. Attorney by the Senate. Once the 120-day period expires, it falls to the local federal district court to appoint someone to the office. In Habba's case, the Senate did not vote on her nomination, and, on July 22, 2025, the U.S. District Court for the District of New Jersey [announced](https://www.njd.uscourts.gov/sites/njd/files/StandingOrder2025-03USAttyAppointment.pdf) that, upon the expiration of her term, Habba would be replaced by [Desiree Leigh Grace](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/22/nyregion/desiree-grace-new-jersey-us-attorney.html), a longtime prosecutor in the U.S. Attorney's Office.\n\nGrace's tenure would be short-lived. Within days of the court's decision, Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that [Grace had been fired](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/u-s-attorney-new-jersey-alina-habba-desiree-leigh-grace-pam-bondi/) and Habba re-installed, now as the Acting U.S. Attorney. At this time, President Trump also withdrew Habba's nomination to serve as the U.S. Attorney, so that she would be [statutorily eligible](https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/5/3345) to serve in the \"acting\" role.\n\nFederal criminal defendants in New Jersey soon got wise to the situation and began filing motions to dismiss the charges against them, on the basis that Habba's appointment was unlawful. And on August 21, 2025, a federal judge [ruled](https://newjerseyglobe.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/Brann-Habba-opinion.pdf) that indeed Habba's appointment was unlawful. The government quickly appealed, and an [expedited briefing schedule](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818/gov.uscourts.ca3.125818.10.2.pdf) was set, under which the appeal should be fully briefed by October 14, 2025. But in the meantime, federal criminal trials and hearings in New Jersey are at a [standstill](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/nyregion/new-jersey-federal-court-slowdown.html), raising questions about how long the status quo can endure." }, { "id": 39734, "title": "Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Sudan neighbor border closure by mid-2026?", "url_title": "Sudan neighbor border closure by mid-2026?", "slug": "sudan-neighbor-border-closure-by-mid-2026", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T09:55:46.257336Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T09:55:45Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T03:33:58.753602Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T09:56:11.951737Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-04T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 39113, "title": "Will any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries officially announce a complete border closure with Sudan citing conflict spillover or security concerns before July 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-03T09:55:46.257697Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T09:55:45Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T09:55:45Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-04T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-06-30T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-06-30T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sudan shares borders with seven countries: Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. The ongoing civil war has created massive refugee flows (nearly 4 million refugees) and security tensions across all borders. [Chad faces particular pressure](https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan/two-years-sudans-war-spreading) with [1.2M+ refugees](https://www.nrc.no/globalassets/pdf/fact-sheets/2025/factsheet_chad_jun2025.pdf) and accusations of supporting RSF, leading SAF to declare Chadian airports \"legitimate targets.\" Egypt imposed visa requirements in 2023, and South Sudan faces escalation risks through RSF's alliance with SPLM-N rebels. Border tensions have included temporary closures, weapon smuggling concerns, and cross-border military incidents, but no complete official closures specifically due to conflict spillover have occurred as of September 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **YES** if any of Sudan's seven neighboring countries (Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, or Eritrea) officially announces through government statements, diplomatic channels, or credible media reports a complete closure of all major border crossings with Sudan, explicitly citing Sudan's civil war, conflict spillover, security concerns, or related reasons. The closure must be announced before July 1, 2026. Temporary closures of individual crossing points, partial restrictions, or closures for other reasons (health, economic, bureaucratic) do not qualify unless conflict spillover is explicitly stated as the primary reason.", "fine_print": "The closure announcement must be made by official government representatives, not local authorities. Closures affecting only specific crossing points while others remain open do not qualify - the closure must be described as affecting the border generally or all major crossings. If a closure is announced for multiple reasons, conflict spillover must be explicitly mentioned as a primary justification.", "post_id": 39734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sudan shares borders with seven countries: Egypt, Libya, Chad, Central African Republic, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea. The ongoing civil war has created massive refugee flows (nearly 4 million refugees) and security tensions across all borders. [Chad faces particular pressure](https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/sudan/two-years-sudans-war-spreading) with [1.2M+ refugees](https://www.nrc.no/globalassets/pdf/fact-sheets/2025/factsheet_chad_jun2025.pdf) and accusations of supporting RSF, leading SAF to declare Chadian airports \"legitimate targets.\" Egypt imposed visa requirements in 2023, and South Sudan faces escalation risks through RSF's alliance with SPLM-N rebels. Border tensions have included temporary closures, weapon smuggling concerns, and cross-border military incidents, but no complete official closures specifically due to conflict spillover have occurred as of September 2025." }, { "id": 39725, "title": "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?", "short_title": "Paul Biya reelected in 2025?", "url_title": "Paul Biya reelected in 2025?", "slug": "paul-biya-reelected-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:09.813954Z", "published_at": "2025-09-06T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T17:00:00.233453Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:10.201855Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-06T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39104, "title": "Will Paul Biya be reelected President of Cameroon in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:09.814375Z", "open_time": "2025-09-06T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-13T02:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\r\n\r\nBiya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39331,\"question_id\":38708}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Paul Biya is officially declared the winner of the 2025 Cameroonian presidential election.\r\n\r\nIt will resolve as **No** if someone else is declared the winner of the election. If no winner is declared before January 1, 2026, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "In the event that the fairness or results of the election are disputed, this question will resolve according to the official pronouncements of the Cameroonian government.", "post_id": 39725, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757176100.025996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.8106617072036885 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.864 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757176100.025996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "centers": [ 0.8106617072036885 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.864 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18933829279631154, 0.8106617072036885 ], "means": [ 0.7971142053896582 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 4.0, 3.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Paul Biya](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Biya) (born 1933) is the oldest head of state in the world and only the second president in the history of Cameroon, which gained its independence in 1960. Biya has been President of Cameroon since 1982, when the country's first president resigned and Biya, then prime minister, ascended to the office. In the decades since, Biya has regularly won reelection, in 1984, 1988, 1992, 1997, 2004, 2011, and 2018. (In 2008, the national assembly removed the term-limits provision from the constitution so he could continue to run.) The closest of these elections was in [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Cameroonian_presidential_election), when Biya won with only 40% of the vote, not too far ahead of the second-place finisher, who attracted 36% of the vote. Since then, Biya has regularly trounced his opposition, amid allegations of fraud or electoral boycotts by opposing parties.\r\n\r\nBiya is again standing for reelection in October 2025. [Polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Cameroonian_presidential_election#Opinion_polls) in the months leading up to the election indicated that Biya was running third, slightly behind [Cabral Libii](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cabral_Libii) and far behind [Maurice Kamto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maurice_Kamto). On July 26, 2025, however, Kamto was [disqualified](https://www.hilltopvoices.com/2025/07/elecam-publishes-official-list-of-13.html) by the state electoral authority. [More recent polling](https://cameroonnewsagency.com/breaking-news-cna-poll-makes-startling-revelations-on-upcoming-presidential-election/) indicates overwhelming opposition to Biya's remaining in office but no clear coalescence around an opposition candidate. Biya faces several opponents in the race and needs only a plurality of votes to win.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39331,\"question_id\":38708}}`" }, { "id": 39724, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?", "short_title": "US attacks Venezuela before 2026?", "url_title": "US attacks Venezuela before 2026?", "slug": "us-attacks-venezuela-before-2026", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:09.297506Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.842934Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:09.625970Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-04T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39103, "title": "Will the United States attack Venezuela before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:09.297992Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \r\n\r\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\r\n\r\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\r\n\r\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\r\n\r\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the United States carries out a military attack against Venezuela's territory or military forces.", "fine_print": "To qualify for this question, the attack must physically affect Venezuelan territory or military forces: cyberattacks, warning shots in international waters, or other actions without immediate physical impact will not count.\r\n\r\nIf it is disputed whether the United States is responsible for an attack, this question will refer to credible sources or may resolve ambiguous.\r\n\r\nIf an attack affecting both the US and Venezuela occurs, such as ship ramming incident, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39724, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757004783.95995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.182 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757004783.95995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.182 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8180000000000001, 0.182 ], "means": [ 0.21153480340107125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 19.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0, 0.0, 13.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the [1998 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_Venezuelan_presidential_election) and the victory of Hugo Chavez, the United States and Venezuela have had a tense relationship, with numerous disputes over trade and foreign policy. During his tenure, Chavez often accused the United States of attempting to remove him from power, including an alleged assassination attempt and alleged support for the [2002 coup attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Venezuelan_coup_attempt). Following Chavez's death and Maduro's succession, tensions escalated further, as the United States imposed additional sanctions and travel restrictions on political leaders. \r\n\r\nDue to the [2018 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Venezuelan_presidential_election), Venezuela entered into a political crisis in which the United States would declare the election fraudulent and [Juan Guaido](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Juan_Guaid%C3%B3) the legitimate leader of Venezuela. During this time the US imposed harsh sanctions on Venezuela, backed protest movements and even supported an [attempt to capture](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Gideon_\\(2020\\)) Maduro by private security forces. During this time Trump repeatedly [floated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proposed_United_States_invasion_of_Venezuela) a full scale invasion of the country and refused to rule out a \"military option.\"\r\n\r\nDuring the Biden Administration, tensions slowly cooled, though the United States would continue to sanction Venezuela, and continue to declare Maduro's leadership illegitimate. In 2023, oil sanctions were moderately lessened as part of an [election related deal](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-opposition-sign-election-deal-paving-way-us-sanctions-relief-2023-10-17/). However following the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Venezuelan_presidential_election), tensions began to rise again as the United States once again declared the election illegitimate.\r\n\r\nAfter Trump's return to power, tensions ramped up quickly as the United States attempted to [deport Venezuelan migrants](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-receives-hundreds-deported-migrants-us-after-flights-restart-2025-03-24/), accused Maduro of [supporting criminal gangs](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/venezuela/article305820776.html), and [imposed further sanctions](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c62zzv02r3vo). There was brief lull in tensions in July as a [prisoner swap](https://www.npr.org/2025/07/18/nx-s1-5472623/venezuela-prisoner-exchange-el-salvador-us) was agreed upon before a reversal where the US reaffirmed and increased it's [reward](https://www.state.gov/reward-offer-increase-of-up-to-50-million-for-information-leading-to-arrest-and-or-conviction-of-nicolas-maduro/) for the arrest of Maduro.\r\n\r\nOn August 18th, the United States ordered [several warships](https://time.com/7310889/trump-maduro-venezuela-militia-us-navy-military-deployment-drug-cartels/) to be deployed near the Venezuelan coast, Maduro responded by mobilizing over 4 million militia across the country and declaring there is [\"no way\"](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/29/venezuelas-maduro-says-no-way-us-can-invade-as-trump-deploys-naval-force) the US can invade Venezuela.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39336,\"question_id\":38713}}`" }, { "id": 39723, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Turkiye)", "short_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "url_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "slug": "pope-leo-xiv-state-visits-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:08.618286Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T11:00:00.387634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:08.948814Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39102, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Turkiye)", "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:08.618684Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to TĆ¼rkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanonās Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai ā the countryās top Catholic cleric ā told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that āthe Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.ā\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were āunderwayā for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. āThere still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,ā he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38649}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Turkiye'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \r\n\r\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if Pope Leo XIV makes a state visit to the listed country before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "To count as a state visit Pope Leo XIV must make an official visit to the country. Passing through the country's airspace, solely landing at an airport or otherwise making a transitory or personal visit will not count towards resolution.\r\n\r\nIf Pope Leo XIV ceases to be pope before 2026 all subquestions will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 39723, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757328630.909258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.703125 ], "centers": [ 0.7837500000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757328630.909258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.703125 ], "centers": [ 0.7837500000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21624999999999994, 0.7837500000000001 ], "means": [ 0.7232910109153821 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 10.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 27.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to TĆ¼rkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanonās Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai ā the countryās top Catholic cleric ā told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that āthe Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.ā\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were āunderwayā for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. āThere still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,ā he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38649}}`" }, { "id": 39722, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Israel)", "short_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "url_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "slug": "pope-leo-xiv-state-visits-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:08.226810Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T11:00:00.347869Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:08.422058Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39101, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (Israel)", "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:08.227303Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to TĆ¼rkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanonās Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai ā the countryās top Catholic cleric ā told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that āthe Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.ā\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were āunderwayā for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. āThere still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,ā he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38651}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'Israel'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \r\n\r\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if Pope Leo XIV makes a state visit to the listed country before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "To count as a state visit Pope Leo XIV must make an official visit to the country. Passing through the country's airspace, solely landing at an airport or otherwise making a transitory or personal visit will not count towards resolution.\r\n\r\nIf Pope Leo XIV ceases to be pope before 2026 all subquestions will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 39722, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757328619.231556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757328619.231556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18093574354670178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 3.0, 8.0, 1.0, 0.0, 25.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to TĆ¼rkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanonās Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai ā the countryās top Catholic cleric ā told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that āthe Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.ā\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were āunderwayā for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. āThere still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,ā he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38651}}`" }, { "id": 39721, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)", "short_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "url_title": "Pope Leo XIV state visits in 2025?", "slug": "pope-leo-xiv-state-visits-in-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:07.651396Z", "published_at": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T11:00:00.305503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:07.987156Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 92, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32813, "type": "tournament", "name": "Fall 2025 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "fall-aib-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q3-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "50000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-03-05T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-06T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-30T03:20:50.819836Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:28:30.658039Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "bots_only" } }, "question": { "id": 39100, "title": "Which states will Pope Leo XIV visit in 2025? (United States)", "created_at": "2025-09-03T03:13:07.651913Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T09:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-08T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.69, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to TĆ¼rkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanonās Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai ā the countryās top Catholic cleric ā told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that āthe Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.ā\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were āunderwayā for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. āThere still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,ā he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38653}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question is a subquestion of a group question. This subquestion specifically targets the option 'United States'. The resolution criteria for the parent question is below. \r\n\r\nEach subquestion will resolve as **Yes** if Pope Leo XIV makes a state visit to the listed country before January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "To count as a state visit Pope Leo XIV must make an official visit to the country. Passing through the country's airspace, solely landing at an airport or otherwise making a transitory or personal visit will not count towards resolution.\r\n\r\nIf Pope Leo XIV ceases to be pope before 2026 all subquestions will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 39721, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757328690.09953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.0620625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757328690.09953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.0620625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9379375, 0.0620625 ], "means": [ 0.10219360223344219 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 5.0, 5.0, 5.0, 6.0, 24.0, 2.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 18.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 8, 2025, the Papacy of [Pope Leo XIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pope_Leo_XIV) commenced after the passing of Pope Francis. Shortly thereafter, it was [announced](https://www.thetablet.co.uk/news/pope-leo-plans-to-visit-turkey-for-nicaea-anniversary/) that the Pope would prepare to travel to TĆ¼rkiye for the 1,700th anniversary of the Council of Nicaea in late November, a trip Pope Francis had intended to make in May before his passing.\r\n\r\nThere is also speculation that the Pope may visit Lebanon:\r\n\r\n> Archbishop Paul Sayah, deputy to Lebanonās Maronite patriarch, Mar Bechara Boutros al-Rai ā the countryās top Catholic cleric ā told The Washington Post on Wednesday that he is aware that āthe Vatican is considering and studying a visit by Pope Leo to Lebanon.ā\r\n\r\n> Sayah spoke to The Post after Rai told Al Arabiya television on Wednesday that preparations were āunderwayā for a visit by Leo that would occur by December. Rai told the outlet that the Vatican had yet to confirm a date. āThere still needs to be a decision from the Vatican on when the visit will take place,ā he said.\r\n\r\n...or perhaps Israel:\r\n\r\n> Some Vatican watchers have also wondered whether Leo might consider a visit to Israel.\r\n\r\n###### Washington Post: [Pope Leo may visit Lebanon on first major trip, Catholic officials say](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/08/20/pope-leo-lebanon-first-trip-turkey-israel-middle-east-peace/)\r\n\r\nRecent Popes have been relatively consistent in their travels, making few international visits in their first year: both [Pope Francis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Francis#2013) and [Pope Benedict XVI ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_Benedict_XVI#2005)made a single visit to Brazil and Germany respectively for World Youth Day and [Pope John Paul II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pastoral_visits_of_Pope_John_Paul_II#1970s) making none. \r\n\r\nGenerally speaking, visits to home nations and states affected by conflict, natural disasters and humanitarian crises are common.\r\n\r\n`{\"format\":\"metac_reveal_and_close_in_period\",\"info\":{\"post_id\":39305,\"question_id\":38653}}`" }, { "id": 39712, "title": "Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?", "short_title": "South Africa removed from FATF grey-list in fall 2025?", "url_title": "South Africa removed from FATF grey-list in fall 2025?", "slug": "south-africa-removed-from-fatf-grey-list-in-fall-2025", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-02T19:50:04.079743Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-26T21:24:44.097373Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-05T21:55:01.749994Z", "comment_count": 10, 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"close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39091, "title": "Will South Africa be removed from the Financial Action Task Force grey-list at the fall 2025 meeting?", "created_at": "2025-09-02T19:50:04.080522Z", "open_time": "2025-09-08T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-24T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-10-26T21:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-10-26T21:24:25.101447Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-10-06T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) describes itself as:\n\n> *\\[an organisation that]* leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing *\\[and]* researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate the risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action.\n\nThe FATF actively monitors countries and assess their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing abilities; those with poor records are put on the so-called grey- and black-lists. The grey-list identifies countries which are *\"actively working with the FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing,\"* and the black-list identifies countries, *\"with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.\"*\n\nSouth Africa was [added to the grey-list in February 2023](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfgeneral/outcomes-fatf-plenary-february-2023.html), however recent reports suggested that the nation was:\n\n> edging closer to leaving a global financial watchdogās so-called gray list in October, with a team of assessors scheduled to visit the nation this month.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [South Africa Moves Closer to Exiting Dirty-Money List in October](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/south-africa-moves-closer-to-exiting-dirty-money-list-in-october)\n\nThe decision in October will be made at the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in Paris which is currently [scheduled](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/calendars/events.html) for October 20th ā 24th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if South Africa is removed from the [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) grey-list (Jurisdictions under Increased Monitoring) at the next FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in 2025 (currently scheduled for October 20ā24).", "fine_print": "* Delays will not impact this question, unless no meeting takes place in 2025, in which case this question will be **annulled**. \n* In the event that a decision is made to remove South Africa from the FATF grey-list without the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting taking place, this question will resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 39712, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759787300.850474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759787300.850474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.91 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.08999999999999997, 0.91 ], "means": [ 0.835988436553006 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017504585138914137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6319212255249617, 0.0, 0.02356201288525273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010199944840930094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022076100250565805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.893587478567622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012756731128426116, 0.052640372796005884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00150084899929598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3429179627815088, 0.22911365031613862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006274330055098322, 0.0, 0.024179832227224612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8872098493090345, 0.0, 0.7437727206595145, 0.45258069760162223, 0.16482953151796573, 2.328734732757094, 1.1130595666398597, 0.41271628640381725, 1.1374538589478598, 0.6701403139738773, 1.8807458557369912, 1.4739999169143834, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8538355754741946 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 79.8098976979125, "peer_score": 12.641227067128236, "coverage": 0.9997921823996146, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997921823996146, "spot_peer_score": 8.871157103961721, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 79.8098976979125, "peer_archived_score": 12.641227067128236, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.871157103961721, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1444, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Financial Action Task Force](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/the-fatf/what-we-do.html) (FATF) describes itself as:\n\n> *\\[an organisation that]* leads global action to tackle money laundering, terrorist and proliferation financing *\\[and]* researches how money is laundered and terrorism is funded, promotes global standards to mitigate the risks, and assesses whether countries are taking effective action.\n\nThe FATF actively monitors countries and assess their anti-money laundering and counter-terrorist financing abilities; those with poor records are put on the so-called grey- and black-lists. The grey-list identifies countries which are *\"actively working with the FATF to address strategic deficiencies in their regimes to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and proliferation financing,\"* and the black-list identifies countries, *\"with serious strategic deficiencies to counter money laundering, terrorist financing, and financing of proliferation.\"*\n\nSouth Africa was [added to the grey-list in February 2023](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfgeneral/outcomes-fatf-plenary-february-2023.html), however recent reports suggested that the nation was:\n\n> edging closer to leaving a global financial watchdogās so-called gray list in October, with a team of assessors scheduled to visit the nation this month.\n\n###### Bloomberg: [South Africa Moves Closer to Exiting Dirty-Money List in October](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-18/south-africa-moves-closer-to-exiting-dirty-money-list-in-october)\n\nThe decision in October will be made at the FATF Plenary and Working Group Meeting in Paris which is currently [scheduled](https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/calendars/events.html) for October 20th ā 24th." }, { "id": 39711, "title": "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?", "short_title": "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?", "url_title": "Lisa Cook not a member of the Federal Reserve Board before Nov 3, 2026?", "slug": "lisa-cook-not-a-member-of-the-federal-reserve-board-before-nov-3-2026", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-02T14:19:59.693198Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T17:20:36Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-28T17:38:59.078247Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-02T17:21:20.201585Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:43:23.694769Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T12:43:23.759553Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Eventsā”", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T14:30:42.532157Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39090, "title": "Will Lisa Cook cease to be a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before November 3, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-02T14:19:59.693711Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T17:20:36Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-07T15:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-07T15:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-11-04T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-11-03T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-11-03T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n\nIn August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n\nAccording to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n\n> Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed ā and its chair, Jerome Powell ā for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes ā tariffs ā that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n\nLisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Lisa Cook ceases to be as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors at any time before November 3, 2026 EST, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In case of ambiguity, the [Federal Reserve page of board members](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/default.htm) will be used to resolve this question.", "post_id": 39711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761825788.973, "end_time": 1761896544.125, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761825788.973, "end_time": 1761896544.125, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.19294047147490637 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6721344522986006, 0.1879393751887922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08068367621686655, 0.0, 0.7921675335834316, 0.0, 0.11946929754074909, 0.0, 1.0233168886725028, 1.4697721709013272, 0.0, 1.0440926650801707, 2.426841239823414, 0.06549491799116114, 0.6309594423045208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49263115236833466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07593467946086177, 0.33566448758373646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17154258041386372, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0279546814036773, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.27211272486465793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010175510648281665, 0.8145691660186479, 0.4236871445251884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016579741893434776, 0.0, 0.0884873620343741, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03283702835426392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022133849035742014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03713880639824575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 285, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Lisa DeNell Cook](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lisa_Cook) is an American economist and a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. She was first appointed to a partial term in May 2022 and later confirmed in September 2023 to a full 14-year term ending January 31, 2038.\n\nIn August 2025, [Trump attempted to remove Cook](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) from her position alleging that she commited mortgage fraud before she became a member of the Fededral Reserve Board. Under the Federal Reserve Act, Governors serve staggered 14-year terms and may be removed by the President [only \"for cause\"](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm). Such a removal [has never happened](apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b) in the Federal Reserve's history.\n\nAccording to the [Associated Press](https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-cook-trump-e9933d518af5155250bebbdc29fd3f2b):\n\n> Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed ā and its chair, Jerome Powell ā for refusing to cut interest rates. The central bank has left its benchmark rate unchanged this year, partly because it is waiting to see whether the big taxes ā tariffs ā that Trump is slapping on foreign products will push inflation higher. Cook has voted against a cut, along with most board members.\n\nLisa Cook filed a lawsuit to challenge her firing and the August court hearing [concluded without a ruling](https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/hearing-ends-without-ruling-trumps-firing-fed-governor-cook-2025-08-29/), meaning that Cook would stay in place for now." }, { "id": 39706, "title": "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?", "short_title": "US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?", "url_title": "US government stock in semiconductor companies in 2025?", "slug": "us-government-stock-in-semiconductor-companies-in-2025", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-02T10:05:37.987546Z", "published_at": "2025-09-26T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T13:29:46.722682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-25T09:08:03.430595Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-29T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 136, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "š¼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "āļø", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "šļø", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32828, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup Fall 2025", "slug": "metaculus-cup-fall-2025", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cup-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2026-01-03T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-09-01T11:09:18.779916Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-30T15:29:07.873952Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 39080, "title": "Will the US government acquire stock in any of the selected semicondunductor companies before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-09-02T10:05:37.987958Z", "open_time": "2025-09-29T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-10-02T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-11-30T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n\nTSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n\nHowever, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the US government acquires any amount of stock in any of Micron, TSMC, Samsung (or any of its US-based subsidiaries), Global Foundries, or Microchip Technology.", "fine_print": "The conditions which the US government acquires the stock under are not relevant to the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 39706, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761822898.559152, "end_time": 1761930224.423, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761822898.559152, "end_time": 1761930224.423, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09572288007550264 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0174215803077884, 0.8681110578395559, 1.058260461425619, 1.0460873256236192, 0.6802407690955612, 3.0641833150873197, 0.403102989126524, 1.1729376512709675, 1.0222259724506406, 0.5475369850104072, 1.9965237388213604, 0.35948569923716855, 0.0, 0.3054018648546395, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.5264072134056038, 0.0, 0.46293226566733936, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0012548035108226434, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.7899978921399792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003689275185039177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004145812011689758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2162635545407669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14737786844204984 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 682, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration is repurposing the funds allocated to the CHIPS Act program. Instead of acting as subsidies, it now pushes to require a stake in the company benefiting from the program for its financial support. A recent deal with Intel resulted in the company [receiving](https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/28/intel-trump-deal-commerce.html) \\$5.7 billion (in addition to other subsidies), and the US government receiving a 10% stake in the company. In a similar fashion, the Trump administration has [vowed](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/us/politics/trump-intel-economy-strategy.html) to target a similar form of cooperation with other semiconductor companies operating in the US, including Micron, TSMC, or Samsung. \n\nTSMC reacted by [saying](https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-21-2025/card/tsmc-considers-returning-u-s-government-subsidies-3D1zczoltbIr7EIlPrcq) that if such a change in terms of the CHIPS Act is officially announced to the company, it will consider paying back the subsidies that it already received for its Arizona plant construction. US Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick later [clarified](https://www.reuters.com/business/trump-administration-is-not-eyeing-equity-tsmc-micron-official-says-2025-08-21/) that this terms change will not apply to TSMC and Micron, which both already invest enough into its US infrastructure.\n\nHowever, there is a number of other companies getting finances through the CHIPS Act program, most importantly Samsung and its US subsidiaries, but also Global Foundries or Microchip Technology." }, { "id": 39699, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?", "short_title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty before 2029?", "url_title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty before 2029?", "slug": "will-china-and-india-ratify-a-bilateral-treaty-before-2029", "author_id": 240136, "author_username": "NotTrying", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T12:14:47.636602Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T13:54:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T10:42:51.470895Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-03T13:55:07.243928Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T01:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:54:29Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "š", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 39076, "title": "Will China and India ratify a bilateral treaty addressing territorial boundaries between the two nations before 2029?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T12:14:47.637026Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T13:54:29Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-08T13:54:29Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-08T13:54:29Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-02T01:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, both India and China formally ratify a bilateral treaty that includes one or more articles specifically addressing the territorial boundaries between the two countries.", "fine_print": "* Any ratified bilateral treaty would count as long as it mentions step towards addressing the border dispute. The treaty doesn't actually have to solve any part of the border dispute. For example, a treaty that said \"China and India agree to discuss the border at some point before 2500\" would resolve this question as **Yes**.\n* The treaty may address other topics and does not need to address all existing border disputes to qualify.\n* A joint communique will not count, independently of content, as communiques are not ratified.", "post_id": 39699, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760642619.373276, "end_time": 1767607368.7, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760642619.373276, "end_time": 1767607368.7, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5199307475764918 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 1993 India and China, following the [Sumdorong Chu standoff](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sumdorong_Chu_standoff), [sought to](https://www.archieve.claudearpi.net/maintenance/uploaded_pics/Agrreements_on_the_Border.pdf) maintain peace along the [Line of Actual Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Actual_Control) and prevent unplanned confrontations. [Subsequent agreements](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Indian_border_dispute#Timeline) in 1996, 2005, [2012](https://www.mea.gov.in/Portal/LegalTreatiesDoc/CH12B0194.pdf), and [2013](https://www.eoibeijing.gov.in/eoibejing_listview/ODM0) continued to build upon this foundation, establishing mechanisms for consultation, coordination, and confidence-building measures along the border. On May 5, 2020, Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a [clash at Pangong Tso lake](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/blood-spilled-on-the-china-india-border/), marking the beginning of a series of confrontations. The situation deteriorated, leading to the deadly [Galwan Valley clash](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53061476) on June 15, 2020. Incidents continued to occur, including a [clash in January 2021](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-55793112) near Naku La in Sikkim and[ another in December 2022](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-63953400) in the Tawang sector of Arunachal Pradesh. In October 2024, India and China reached a [significant agreement](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/world/asia/india-china-border.html) to ease border tensions that had persisted since the deadly clash in Galwan Valley in June 2020. This agreement, announced on October 21, 2024, focused on restoring pre-2020 patrolling protocols in specific areas along the Line of Actual Control, particularly in the Depsang Plains and Demchok region of Ladakh." }, { "id": 39698, "title": "Will the interest in \"25th amendment\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"25th amendment\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"25th amendment\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-25th-amendment-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:07.165014Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T22:24:01Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:56.921291Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:07.545153Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T03:41:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:24:01Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39075, "title": "Will the interest in \"25th amendment\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:07.165403Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T22:24:01Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T03:41:43Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:56.475767Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T23:54:01Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the āinterest over timeā graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibratedāfor example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic ā25th amendmentā at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 94; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"25th amendment\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-09 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-10 to 2025-09-09 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"25th amendment\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-10 2025-09-09\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39698, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756768299.270924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756768299.270924, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.265 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.735, 0.265 ], "means": [ 0.2953070175438596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 14.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 7.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 53.613293228024446, "peer_score": 5.3675892207428175, "coverage": 0.9569938070244259, "relative_legacy_score": -0.01652824361729415, "weighted_coverage": 0.9569938070244259, "spot_peer_score": 6.593122718358412, "spot_baseline_score": 55.58161550616397, "baseline_archived_score": 53.613293228024446, "peer_archived_score": 5.3675892207428175, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.01652824361729415, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.593122718358412, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 55.58161550616397 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the āinterest over timeā graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibratedāfor example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic ā25th amendmentā at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 94; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"25th amendment\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=25th%20amendment&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`" }, { "id": 39697, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump truth social\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump truth social\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump truth social\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-trump-truth-social-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:06.325404Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T21:27:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:57.579133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:06.678871Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T19:21:51Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:27:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39074, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump truth social\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:06.325800Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T21:27:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T19:21:51Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:57.124332Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T22:57:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the āinterest over timeā graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibratedāfor example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic ātrump truth socialā at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 70; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump truth social\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-08 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-09 to 2025-09-08 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"trump truth social\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-09 2025-09-08\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39697, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756766742.09394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41200000000000003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756766742.09394, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41200000000000003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3699871794871795 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 18.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 37.44600970671793, "peer_score": 4.960113559978001, "coverage": 0.9870082866704022, "relative_legacy_score": 0.002193087035729101, "weighted_coverage": 0.9870082866704022, "spot_peer_score": 5.651269205699335, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 37.44600970671793, "peer_archived_score": 4.960113559978001, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.002193087035729101, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.651269205699335, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the āinterest over timeā graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibratedāfor example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic ātrump truth socialā at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 70; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump truth social\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump%20truth%20social&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`" } ] }
