Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=240
http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=260", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=220", "results": [ { "id": 37464, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by LPK1 of its ready-to-eat chicken caesar wrap for misbranding and an undeclared allergen issued February 24, 2025 be closed before June 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-by-lpk1-of-its-ready-to-eat-chicken-caesar-wrap-for-misbranding-and-an-undeclared-allergen-issued-february-24-2025-be-closed-before-june-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:37.681814Z", "published_at": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:09.856850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36824, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by LPK1 of its ready-to-eat chicken caesar wrap for misbranding and an undeclared allergen issued February 24, 2025 be closed before June 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:37.681814Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-08T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-08T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-02T14:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-02T14:19:51.090034Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Food Safety News: [Chicken Caesar wraps sold in vending machines in Washington recalled over undeclared fish](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2025/02/chicken-caesar-wraps-sold-in-veding-machines-in-washington-recalled-over-undeclared-fish/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/lpk1-recalls-ready-eat-chicken-caesar-wrap-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) before June 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37464, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746681513.569269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746681513.569269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5964903203445293 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0032869411540846433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5191615675435731, 0.0, 0.04243183045696078, 0.2720962540814778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8404698975017634, 1.2553376757822985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_peer_archived_score": 22.537179995350037, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Food Safety News: [Chicken Caesar wraps sold in vending machines in Washington recalled over undeclared fish](https://www.foodsafetynews.com/2025/02/chicken-caesar-wraps-sold-in-veding-machines-in-washington-recalled-over-undeclared-fish/)" }, { "id": 37463, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway reveal a purchase of more Amazon stock in its Q1 2025 13F filing?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-berkshire-hathaway-reveal-a-purchase-of-more-amazon-stock-in-its-q1-2025-13f-filing", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:37.376226Z", "published_at": "2025-05-08T02:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:42.876979Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T02:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36823, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway reveal a purchase of more Amazon stock in its Q1 2025 13F filing?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:37.376226Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T02:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-15T21:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-15T21:21:01.087326Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.7, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "StockCircle: [Berkshire Hathaway's Amazon Stake](https://stockcircle.com/portfolio/warren-buffett/amzn/transactions)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 13F filing for Berkshire Hathaway, Inc., filed for the period ending 2025-03-31, reports the company holding greater than 10,000,000 shares of Amazon.com, Inc.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37463, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746675399.920269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746675399.920269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23292181077736598 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3810919053759498, 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10,000+ participants, before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-global-protest-tracker-report-any-protests-in-turkey-turkiye-with-10000-participants-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:37.358713Z", "published_at": "2025-05-07T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:14.249251Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-07T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-07T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting 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"peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Wikipedia: [2025 Turkish protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Turkish_protests)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the [Global Protest Tracker](https://carnegieendowment.org/features/global-protest-tracker?lang=en) reports a protest in Turkey (Türkiye) with 10,000 or more participants with a start date after the launch of this question and before July 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "Please note that the Global Protest Tracker uses the name Türkiye in its database.", "post_id": 37460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746652568.191407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, 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China has denied talks are taking place](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-xi-china-tariffs/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after May 12, 2025 and before June 15, 2025, Donald Trump and Xi Jinping speak on the phone with each other, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Both sides must acknowledge the phone call took place for it to count. \"Speak on the phone with each other\" is defined as both individuals, from different physical spaces, orally uttering words intended for the other individual into a telephone or equivalent device, those words being converted into electrical or digital signals in real time, and then transferred to the other individual via telecommunications links, where they are reconverted into sound waves at the other individual's listening device.", "post_id": 37458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746639022.666504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.20472440944881895 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746639022.666504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.20472440944881895 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.795275590551181, 0.20472440944881895 ], "means": [ 0.2164366848661303 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10887815532154052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8414412190720929, 0.0, 0.7485007948841444, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7313950925197923, 0.16948948535457445, 0.7676351291810383, 0.018701849353929764, 0.0, 3.2211181227051107, 0.8467098584002948, 0.70552391225079, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.0, 2.438475490556052, 0.14670818709218508, 0.08625829385506563, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8625270746783888, 0.0, 0.35736496982613525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7202766205908815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025325464845858035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25811972863939986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -123.97686338333267, "peer_score": -7.452153121613327, "coverage": 0.9852108751402961, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9852108751402961, "spot_peer_score": -8.418598098375298, "spot_baseline_score": -128.82449686310733, "baseline_archived_score": -123.97686338333267, "peer_archived_score": -7.452153121613327, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -8.418598098375298, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -128.82449686310733 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "CBS News: [Trump says he's talked with Xi about tariffs. 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"will-the-united-states-accuse-the-peoples-republic-of-china-of-blockading-taiwan-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.854109Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:56.093127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", 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"id": 36809, "title": "Will the United States accuse the People's Republic of China of blockading Taiwan before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.854109Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T17:47:59.641812Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.8, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, 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Here’s How.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-ready-to-blockade-taiwan-here-s-how/ar-AA1BvnW8)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the US government publicly accuses the People's Republic of China of blockading at least one of Taiwan's seaports without consent from the Taiwanese government in Taipei.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37449, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746567019.755354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19666666666666668 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2293312474847263 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746567019.755354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.19666666666666668 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2293312474847263 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8033333333333333, 0.19666666666666668 ], "means": [ 0.18078215714913334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03950452060911081, 0.0, 0.7513609248868253, 0.0, 0.38637747064730565, 0.007535015292961775, 0.34029419999880384, 0.2447305082056486, 0.15134482788356746, 0.3137949917413191, 0.0, 0.6683702162141048, 3.787351271006041, 0.8929452323661959, 0.17433684005092911, 0.0604806447258907, 0.6299942137646893, 3.314981243542837, 0.0, 0.8433303443076081, 0.7961717265997972, 0.0, 2.5540447698107744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26054313063614865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0604017355973106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002334944183173679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010197534288651899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.74387236116674, "peer_score": 3.8742056061656847, "coverage": 0.9845999318030145, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9845999318030145, "spot_peer_score": 0.4111621397779435, "spot_baseline_score": 68.40706457340808, "baseline_archived_score": 71.74387236116674, "peer_archived_score": 3.8742056061656847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.4111621397779435, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 68.40706457340808 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "WSJ via MSN: [China Is Ready to Blockade Taiwan. Here’s How.](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/china-is-ready-to-blockade-taiwan-here-s-how/ar-AA1BvnW8)" }, { "id": 37447, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-white-house-admit-at-least-one-ap-reporter-or-photographer-to-an-oval-office-media-event-before-july-1-2025-in-compliance-with-judge-trevor-mcfaddens-april-8-preliminary-injunction", "author_id": 228596, "author_username": "BenWilson", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.564707Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:40:53.457335Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36807, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.564707Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T14:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T14:19:34.457064Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. 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Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, at least one journalist or photographer employed by the Associated Press (AP) is admitted to an Oval Office media event hosted by the White House, as evidenced by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or confirmation from the Associated Press.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if, before July 1, 2025, no AP reporter or photographer has been admitted to any such event.", "fine_print": "A media event refers to any scheduled or impromptu event in the Oval Office to which members of the press are invited to report or take photographs.\n\n“Admitted” means physically granted access to the Oval Office for the purpose of reporting or photography, not merely allowed on White House grounds.\n\nThe individual must be employed by the Associated Press and formally affiliated with the organization.\n\nEvidence may include but is not limited to:\n\n* Press pool reports listing AP personnel\n* White House press office access logs\n* Statements from the AP or other credible sources", "post_id": 37447, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746552620.030004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746552620.030004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.44621772985932573 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7961717265997972, 0.08098405735731518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.526247751814955, 2.466492682064172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13100237621305458, 0.0, 0.18903218234793223, 0.0, 0.162491984359063, 0.0, 0.6299942137646893, 1.6972393448852205, 0.0900442809667568, 0.36269734845126494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7908573157420926, 0.0, 0.015028924156914286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.587410757752465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.789479383052537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929452323661959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.256831540495285, 0.0, 0.2990786581517114, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3223899909966117, 0.2144400238150099, 0.08331970693963144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6169165796920074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28015246351522516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events." }, { "id": 37444, "title": "Will the US lift its sanctions on Nord Stream 2 before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-lift-its-sanctions-on-nord-stream-2-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.542244Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:44.716865Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-06T14:35:25.656181Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36804, "title": "Will the US lift its sanctions on Nord Stream 2 before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:36.542244Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T17:43:02.984270Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[White House debates lifting sanctions on Russian energy assets, Nord Stream](https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/23/white-house-debating-lifting-sanctions-on-russian-energy-assets-00306486)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if NORD STREAM 2 AG does not appear at Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) [Sanctions List Search tool](https://sanctionssearch.ofac.treas.gov/) when checked by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025. 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