Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2400
{ "count": 5963, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2420", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2380", "results": [ { "id": 26616, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?", "short_title": "UK to Abolish Two-Child Benefit Cap by 2035?", "url_title": "UK to Abolish Two-Child Benefit Cap by 2035?", "slug": "uk-to-abolish-two-child-benefit-cap-by-2035", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-24T07:44:21.141422Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T15:50:28.465867Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26616, "title": "Will the UK Abolish the Two-Child Benefit Cap before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-07-24T07:44:21.141422Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets).", "resolution_criteria": "The UK government must officially abolish the two-child benefit cap before January 1, 2035 for the question to resolve as **Yes**. The cap must be removed in its entirety by this date, not merely announced as a future policy to be implemented. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe abolition must be confirmed through an official government announcement, for example from the official [UK Parliament](https://bills.parliament.uk/) which keeps a record of parliamentary bills.", "fine_print": "Anything below an official, complete abolishment of the two-child benefit cap, such as a suspension of it (even if it's an indefinite suspension), an increase in exemptions to it, or an increase in the cap to above 2 children, will not count.", "post_id": 26616, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758297017.495751, "end_time": 1788305656.613957, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758297017.495751, "end_time": 1788305656.613957, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5930150103875712 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288401.103175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288401.103175, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5344250793150168, 0.4655749206849832 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [two-child benefit cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724071807/https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benefit_cap), introduced in 2017, restricts child-related benefits to the first two children in a family. This policy has been widely criticized for its impact on child poverty, with [some experts arguing that abolishing it would be one of the most effective measures to reduce the number of children living in poverty](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072109/https://theconversation.com/the-uks-two-child-limit-on-benefits-is-hurting-the-poorest-families-poverty-experts-on-why-it-should-be-abolished-223371). Despite these arguments, the current Labour government, led by Prime Minister Keir Starmer, has [opposed scrapping the cap, citing financial constraints](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072421/https://news.sky.com/story/government-cannot-commit-to-scrapping-two-child-benefit-cap-without-knowing-how-to-fund-it-says-minister-13183621).\n\n[The Labour Party recently suspended seven MPs who defied the party line by voting against the government on this issue](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072620/https://news.sky.com/story/who-are-the-seven-rebel-mps-suspended-by-labour-over-two-child-benefit-cap-vote-13184018). This internal conflict highlights the ongoing debate within the party and the broader political landscape.\n\nNonetheless, [according to a recent YouGov poll, 60% of the general public, including 50% of Labour supporters, oppose lifting the cap](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724072925/https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/50140-public-support-retaining-the-two-child-benefit-limit-as-starmer-gears-up-for-first-rebellion). This public sentiment adds another layer of complexity to the policy’s future.\n\nThe removal of the two-child benefit cap could happen via a standalone bill passed by Parliament, [or as part of a finance bill approved by the House of Commons that takes place after the announcement of a government budget](http://web.archive.org/web/20240724144254/https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/budgets)." }, { "id": 26611, "title": "Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?", "short_title": "Trump Harris Debate Handshake", "url_title": "Trump Harris Debate Handshake", "slug": "trump-harris-debate-handshake", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115980, "username": "probahilliby" }, { "id": 168191, "username": "ADQ" }, { "id": 175799, "username": "dingers" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-24T01:59:46.298544Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T11:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.941920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T11:30:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T11:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26611, "title": "Will Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in any of their debates, if any happen?", "created_at": "2024-07-24T01:59:46.298544Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T11:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.\n\n[Glaringly absent](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/27/biden-trump-no-hand-shake-presidential-debate/74238160007/) in the 90-minute showdown between Biden and Trump was the [traditional](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109452062.html) debate handshake; the two candidates did nothing to acknowledge each other until the debate began. However, with a new candidate, the reluctance to shake hands may disappear. Trump shook hands with Hillary Clinton in 2 of their 3 debates in 2016, while neither Trump nor Harris shook hands with their opponents in 2020 due to COVID.\n\nThere is little personal relationship between the candidates. Trump [donated to Harris’s campaign](https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/elections-verify/trump-harris-donation-6000-california-attorney-general-campaign/536-3dd86c7f-48df-40c9-aae4-aa89e7ce454a) in 2011 and 2013 when she was Attorney General of California, but has more recently [labeled her privately](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala) as “pathetic” and “so f**king bad”. Likewise, Harris has [likened Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/harris-hold-1st-rally-presidential-campaign-milwaukee/story?id=112196550) to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” in her opening attacks as a candidate.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nIf no formal, live debates are held between Trump and Harris, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "- \"Shake hands\" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.\n\n- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\n- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence. \n\n- The handshake must occur during the actual live debate period. Any handshakes that occur outside the debate period, such as a pre-recorded promo video at the top of the broadcast, would not count.", "post_id": 26611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726021033.811874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726021033.811874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.6801094586015111 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.009837259930117102, 1.0554685268895532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04084036021151628, 0.08303507941585661, 0.0034934892766462, 0.43993084635790525, 0.0, 0.9837464679747898, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.3328582066142107, 0.020064761700770095, 0.24311673443421425, 0.0, 0.5279194946783726, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.3612561388224797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0743529554125065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20314358457038237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.00276763126558 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.859370283550437, "coverage": 0.4422236086320185, "baseline_score": -83.47191599521199, "spot_peer_score": -4.803344799125234, "peer_archived_score": 15.859370283550437, "baseline_archived_score": -83.47191599521199, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.803344799125234 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726002943.244935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726002943.244935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9369918318545779, 0.06300816814542207 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following Joe Biden’s poor performance at the June 27th CNN debate and his subsequent suspension of his candidacy, Kamala Harris may get the opportunity to [debate](https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-absolutely-debate-harris-says-not-thrilled-abc-rcna163331) Republican nominee Donald Trump.\n\n[Glaringly absent](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/06/27/biden-trump-no-hand-shake-presidential-debate/74238160007/) in the 90-minute showdown between Biden and Trump was the [traditional](https://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/election/article109452062.html) debate handshake; the two candidates did nothing to acknowledge each other until the debate began. However, with a new candidate, the reluctance to shake hands may disappear. Trump shook hands with Hillary Clinton in 2 of their 3 debates in 2016, while neither Trump nor Harris shook hands with their opponents in 2020 due to COVID.\n\nThere is little personal relationship between the candidates. Trump [donated to Harris’s campaign](https://www.kgw.com/article/news/verify/elections-verify/trump-harris-donation-6000-california-attorney-general-campaign/536-3dd86c7f-48df-40c9-aae4-aa89e7ce454a) in 2011 and 2013 when she was Attorney General of California, but has more recently [labeled her privately](https://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-caught-on-video-claiming-broken-down-joe-biden-has-quit-its-kamala) as “pathetic” and “so f**king bad”. Likewise, Harris has [likened Trump](https://abcnews.go.com/amp/Politics/harris-hold-1st-rally-presidential-campaign-milwaukee/story?id=112196550) to “predators”, “fraudsters” and “cheaters” in her opening attacks as a candidate." }, { "id": 26577, "title": "Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdc-report-more-than-100-total-human-cases-of-h5-in-the-united-states-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:29.194685Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.812132Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26577, "title": "Will the CDC report more than 100 total human cases of H5 in the United States on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:29.194685Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despite the low public health risk at present, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation in collaboration with state health departments to track individuals with animal exposure. The CDC's influenza surveillance systems are in place to detect H5N1 activity in humans. As of now, 11 human cases have been reported in the United States since 2022, with ten of those occurring between April 1, 2024, and July 22, 2024, following exposure to dairy cows and poultry, with one case from poultry exposure in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cumulative number of human cases of H5 reported by the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States, since the first case in 2022 and as of October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "Cases do not need to be confirmed as H5N1 to count, the question will resolve as the \"Total Reported Human Cases in the United States\" or closest equivalent available on October 1, 2024.", "post_id": 26577, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003384.961824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.062 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003384.961824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.062 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.938, 0.062 ], "means": [ 0.2182467665809798 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.5342894150955098, 0.36164207566756346, 0.9560596254123633, 0.0, 2.1340378846221095, 1.0320749959623794, 0.031223319598590725, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.11230801396306125, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8708577757319147, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.23320966636533644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2119575281013026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 90.76598278532894, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 90.76598278532894 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003385.007797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003385.007797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9018989435843899, 0.09810105641561011 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. 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As of now, 11 human cases have been reported in the United States since 2022, with ten of those occurring between April 1, 2024, and July 22, 2024, following exposure to dairy cows and poultry, with one case from poultry exposure in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cumulative number of human cases of H5 reported by the [CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) in the United States, since the first case in 2022 and as of October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "Cases do not need to be confirmed as H5N1 to count, the question will resolve as the \"Total Reported Human Cases in the United States\" or closest equivalent available on October 1, 2024.", "post_id": 26574, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003511.436591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003511.436591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.6666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33333333333333326, 0.6666666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5487567228708452 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18923467117442552, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2861101350911044, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8697740331189503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.7685977471107392, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17736823179929256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0755476037015854, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0630589070194355, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.6121484830972059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003511.436591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003511.436591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6008637750184442, 0.3991362249815557 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[H5N1 bird flu](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html) is currently widespread in wild birds globally and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows. Recently, four human cases have been reported among U.S. dairy workers and seven among poultry workers (including one case from 2022). Despite the low public health risk at present, the CDC is closely monitoring the situation in collaboration with state health departments to track individuals with animal exposure. The CDC's influenza surveillance systems are in place to detect H5N1 activity in humans. As of now, 11 human cases have been reported in the United States since 2022, with ten of those occurring between April 1, 2024, and July 22, 2024, following exposure to dairy cows and poultry, with one case from poultry exposure in 2022." }, { "id": 26573, "title": "Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-country-other-than-poland-germany-usa-sweden-england-or-france-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.441651Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.700659Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26573, "title": "Will a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.441651Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if a country other than Poland, Germany, USA, Sweden, England, or France is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26573, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003462.767102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003462.767102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21423115605397805 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 1.165370745790928, 0.05058860589149875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.431162443230918, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 2.1451886988297444, 0.0, 0.9813597093730154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.3937762559534268, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5973416876647915, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003462.797737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003462.797737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9235093343025209, 0.07649066569747913 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26572, "title": "Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-usa-sweden-england-or-france-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.189520Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.411933Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 100, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26572, "title": "Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.189520Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if USA, Sweden, England, or France is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003411.470719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003411.470719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5112710013125917 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.1154000130630344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3884649765480077, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6078097139925314, 0.8379487954001852, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 1.0891361343948138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8202768564294831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31721629902075316, 0.06284138175988364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001685, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001685 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003411.520611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003411.520611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5332189374370192, 0.4667810625629808 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26571, "title": "Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-germany-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.019786Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.335543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26571, "title": "Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.019786Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Germany is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003537.421365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003537.421365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20817421599512054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11777121751898838, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.013162951709963655, 0.6980965657768824, 0.04510278262054179, 1.2418028211103138, 0.31286391742790765, 0.1976105664975124, 0.357644394566907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.8273367476496194, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1892973143189134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003537.459251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003537.459251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9242060790440152, 0.07579392095598486 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26570, "title": "Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-poland-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.804748Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.565380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26570, "title": "Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.804748Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Poland is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003486.996183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003486.996183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22683795914719573 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.5243776579668233, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 1.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.48289485166246965, 0.0, 1.0881065096574805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10134174905292345, 0.1976105664975124, 0.13093416922895204, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.16257931202371395, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.773244756044359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003487.03095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003487.03095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8975646624660103, 0.10243533753398969 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26569, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-atlantic-oceans-daily-mean-sea-surface-temperature-surpass-2023s-record-peak-temperature-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.598170Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.524054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 107, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26569, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.598170Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2σ level of the 1982-2011 mean.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [\"Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic\" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)—accessible when choosing \"North Atlantic\" from the \"Area Selection\" dropdown menu at the link—shows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C set on August 31, 2023, for any day before October 1, 2024. The question will resolve when the data for September 30 is first available on the chart and accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "ClimateReanalyzer's chart runs on a 1-to-2 day lag. Secondly, all data is preliminary for two weeks. For the sake of this question, we are using the preliminary data for the resolution.", "post_id": 26569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003359.300328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003359.300328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6988940169762602 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.645253581397802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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{ "start_time": 1722003359.343848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35943724197433435, 0.6405627580256656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2σ level of the 1982-2011 mean." }, { "id": 26568, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.100598Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.780535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 106, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26568, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.100598Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 26568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003345.275988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003345.275988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5815000094262547 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5592359492000212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05812797574670697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2930099684716008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.9013818851400481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.5662623408993923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.13533528323661267, 0.7547921743264563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.041937583413620604, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 1.2590650182555156, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49912145522409046, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003345.327563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003345.327563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5986014529034778, 0.4013985470965223 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 26555, "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usa-win-more-gold-than-silver-medals-at-the-paris-2024-olympics", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.769051Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.298614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26555, "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.769051Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917019.392051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917019.392051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.758621693299968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08792237473957415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.14727515603083496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 1.1091217998181846, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.6673830178992819, 0.0, 0.9815903307350607, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.8003336271299532, 0.0, 1.2897926863638505, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 1.1177712175189884, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -118.44245711374276, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -118.44245711374276 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917019.46408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917019.46408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37070568449726304, 0.629294315502737 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports)." }, { "id": 26554, "title": "Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-next-interstellar-object-be-discovered-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.433297Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.207211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26554, "title": "Will the next interstellar object be discovered before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.433297Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. A possible third one, CNEOS 2014-01-08, is [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08). \n\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera C. Rubin Observatory](https://rubinobservatory.org/) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917043.391515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917043.391515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.35031313716060863 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3404729424039941, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.2801509562747174, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1781455383582426, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3065228090292123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33650988586059405, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9803043605457495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2952604968778372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917043.430428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917043.430428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7951619250311612, 0.20483807496883882 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. A possible third one, CNEOS 2014-01-08, is [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08). \n\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera C. Rubin Observatory](https://rubinobservatory.org/) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\n\n" }, { "id": 26553, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hawaiian-electric-company-file-for-bankruptcy-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.288872Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.194115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26553, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.288872Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 46207 ([here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=46207&owner=exclude)) has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before September 30, 2024.\n", "fine_print": "This question concerns Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., not its parent company Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Therefore, if Hawaiian Electric Company files for bankruptcy but not its parent, this would resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 26553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916945.194091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.519 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916945.194091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.519 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3981493397459749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028664445367929763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7877610458160232, 0.576612460337097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7436618965167657, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8402148505771252, 0.0, 1.0984928773439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13548800447350534, 0.0, 0.29804591930012875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5223486041889278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.29638957247389086, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5540371995329351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2321088487323415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916945.229399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916945.229399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7698113336504492, 0.2301886663495508 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm." }, { "id": 26552, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-us-fda-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.108748Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.461499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26552, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.108748Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Food and Drug Administration (or its successor body if current FDA ceases to exist) approves a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the US before September 30, 2024. The approval must be given before September 30, 2024, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a \"'senolytic therapy\" if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\n\nThis question will resolve as No if no such therapy is approved before September 30, 2024. If the FDA is dissolved before approval is granted, and no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it before September 30, 2024, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.\n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916958.02487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916958.02487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.925, 0.07500000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.11260220343854825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6403200895653883, 0.9852337836841221, 0.027463871070039274, 1.0, 0.16026094357950826, 2.0610132779402073, 0.0, 0.6639866189346225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5437486816697201, 0.0, 0.486418802296313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238180217565535, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1541237864259153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09103305858692605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 88.75252707415875, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 88.75252707415875 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916958.061833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916958.061833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761873058219698, 0.023812694178030242 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)" }, { "id": 26551, "title": "Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-revolut-obtain-a-uk-banking-license-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.964973Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.966463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26551, "title": "Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.964973Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded. Neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like Nubank, which is currently valued over $100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in Latin America. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\nRevolut has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut [has a banking licence](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/) for the EEA (European Economic Area), which was granted by the Bank of Lithuania. However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK, limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as an \"[e-money institution](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/)\" in the UK.\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/) into one. However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6).\n\nAdditional resources: \n\n- From the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before September 30, 2024, Revolut secures a [banking license](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), either directly or through indirect means such as authorisation to acquire another bank or company already holding a UK banking license.\n\nThe question resolves based on any formal announcement from the FCA (or other UK regulatory entity able to grant a banking license) or from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Revolut will be obtaining a banking license. This must be a full license (i.e. not a provisional one).\n\nIf no such announcement is made before September 30, 2024, thes question will resolve negatively. \n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26551, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916973.031641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916973.031641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6708439499654368 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07712539708584276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.7230713684656842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16311972700051347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.01207354803198191, 1.0610311921908029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.7166072563239869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9252160512788571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2851363590555764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916973.071186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916973.071186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6634999534573549, 0.33650004654264515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded. Neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like Nubank, which is currently valued over $100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in Latin America. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\nRevolut has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut [has a banking licence](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/) for the EEA (European Economic Area), which was granted by the Bank of Lithuania. However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK, limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as an \"[e-money institution](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/)\" in the UK.\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/) into one. However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6).\n\nAdditional resources: \n\n- From the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)\n" }, { "id": 26550, "title": "Will SpaceX's Super Heavy booster make contact with the catch tower during the landing phase of Starship integrated flight test 5?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacexs-super-heavy-booster-make-contact-with-the-catch-tower-during-the-landing-phase-of-starship-integrated-flight-test-5", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.714715Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.293207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26550, "title": "Will SpaceX's Super Heavy booster make contact with the catch tower during the landing phase of Starship integrated flight test 5?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.714715Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the NSF space news site](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-preparations-tower-catch-flight-5/):\n\n>Many signs point to a possible catch attempt on the fifth flight of Starship. Elon Musk did post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he thought there should be a catch attempt on Flight 5. A new communications license from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has language that states there will either be a soft ocean landing like on the last flight or a catch attempt at the orbital launch site.\n\nAs of July 22, 2024, the fifth flight of Starship [is expected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_5) in August 2024. \n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk has [dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. \n\nOn June 6, 2024, Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1798732390313218305): \n\n>I think we should try to catch the booster with the mechazilla arms next flight!", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during integrated flight test 5 (IFT-5), SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with a [launch and catch tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video), and the booster makes contact with the tower during the landing attempt. If no such attempt and contact is made during IFT-5, the question will resolve as **No**. If IFT-5 does not occur before October 1, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve as **Yes** if Super Heavy booster makes any physical contact at all with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where the booster approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\n* If IFT-5 occurs but the booster is destroyed before the landing attempt, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\n* IFT-5 will be taken to mean the next launch of a Starship stacked on top of Super Heavy booster. An aborted launch before the rocket leaves the pad will not count as IFT-5, so long as IFT-5 can be rescheduled for a later date. For example, if IFT-5 is attempted and the rocket blows up on the pad, that will count as a completed IFT-5 and the question will resolve as **No**. But if IFT-5 is attempted and the countdown is aborted without the rocket leaving the pad, and the launch occurs at an attempt a week later, that attempt will count as IFT-5.", "post_id": 26550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5831258961753086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.09103305858692605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0187036868702393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.3232295721582489, 0.16598497756774988, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.8852253901575815, 0.0, 0.9871667086087061, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 1.1237744268814007, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5579156008453386, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5151759898883079, 0.4848240101116921 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the NSF space news site](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-preparations-tower-catch-flight-5/):\n\n>Many signs point to a possible catch attempt on the fifth flight of Starship. Elon Musk did post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he thought there should be a catch attempt on Flight 5. A new communications license from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has language that states there will either be a soft ocean landing like on the last flight or a catch attempt at the orbital launch site.\n\nAs of July 22, 2024, the fifth flight of Starship [is expected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_5) in August 2024. \n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk has [dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. \n\nOn June 6, 2024, Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1798732390313218305): \n\n>I think we should try to catch the booster with the mechazilla arms next flight!" }, { "id": 26543, "title": "Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning?", "short_title": "EPA Regulations Struck Down by 2027?", "url_title": "EPA Regulations Struck Down by 2027?", "slug": "epa-regulations-struck-down-by-2027", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T20:07:20.957451Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.651227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T10:34:31.536079Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T10:34:31.536079Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26543, "title": "Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T20:07:20.957451Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.\n\nThe Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nNumerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.\n\nThis question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2027, credible sources report that a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) has issued a ruling that:\n\n- Strikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of any Clean Air Act regulations promulgated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and\n\n- Explicitly cites the Supreme Court's June 2024 decision overturning the Chevron doctrine as a substantial factor in its reasoning.\n\nThe court's decision must be a final ruling, not a preliminary injunction or procedural order.\nIf no such ruling is issued before January 1, 2027, the question resolves as \"No\".", "fine_print": "Examples of EPA regulations stemming from the Clean Air Act could include, but are not limited to, regulations related to:\n\n- National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS),\n- New Source Performance Standards (NSPS),\n- New Source Review (NSR),\n- Greenhouse gas regulation under the Act.\n\nAny later court rulings once the criteria for Yes have been met are immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n\nMetaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all relevant publications when resolving the question and will determine resolution based on information and reporting available via standard web searches.", "post_id": 26543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727361301.897645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727361301.897645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8295255329829899 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5726661189940503, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.1020785627401981, "coverage": 0.03934755280945734, "baseline_score": 1.6791963849936486, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.1020785627401981, "baseline_archived_score": 1.6791963849936486, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725350700.310609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725350700.310609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2837734713732344, 0.7162265286267656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.\n\nThe Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nNumerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.\n\nThis question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026." }, { "id": 26530, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Bitcoin new ATH before October?", "url_title": "Bitcoin new ATH before October?", "slug": "bitcoin-new-ath-before-october", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T13:11:52.694441Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.299668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 166, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26530, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T13:11:52.694441Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.\n\nDespite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.\n\nIt has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.\n\nIn case the resolution source is no longer available or in the event of ambiguous data, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to determine the result.", "fine_print": "Since the price of Bitcoin varies on different exchanges, it is possible that different statistics sites mention slightly different values for ATH.", "post_id": 26530, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727689337.125396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], 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"start_time": 1727689337.205879, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 851, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.\n\nDespite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.\n\nIt has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29." } ] }
