Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2420
{ "count": 5963, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2440", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2400", "results": [ { "id": 26529, "title": "Will Levy Rozman become a chess Grandmaster before 2030?", "short_title": "Levy Rozman GM", "url_title": "Levy Rozman GM", "slug": "levy-rozman-gm", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T12:21:09.333133Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T22:56:33.549416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26529, "title": "Will Levy Rozman become a chess Grandmaster before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T12:21:09.333133Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Levy Rozman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levy_Rozman) known online as GothamChess, is an American chess International Master and content creator who got famous during COVID-19 pandemic for his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@GothamChess) as well as collaboration with chess Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura.\n\nLevy aquired his IM title in 2018 but then made a pause in his professional career focusing more on teaching, creating chess content and playing online chess tournaments. He made an attempt to fulfill GM norms in 2021-2022 playing an over-the-board tournament in Las Vegas but it was unsuccessful back then.\n\nOn 23 April 2024, he [posted a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zF4S9MfiJHM&list=PLBRObSmbZluT8Sr0KWZisAyuvMxBSEVLy) announcing his return to the over-the-board tournaments and renewing his efforts to reach the Grandmaster title, which for Levy would be more difficult considering his age (28 years at the moment of question writing).\n\nIn modern days, most GMs reach their title during their teenage years or early twenties. It is considered that human brain is much harder to train to make deep chess calculations later in life.\n\nAmong [all the players who received non-honorary GM title in 2023 and until 23 July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_grandmasters) only 7 people were older than Levy while 52 were younger than him.\n\nAs of July 2024, to become a grandmaster, a player must achieve both of the following:\n\n>1. Favorable results (called norms) from a total of at least 27 games in tournaments. With some exceptions, to receive a norm in a tournament:\n\n>The player's performance rating at the end of the tournament must be at least 2600. (Tournaments are no longer classified in categories.)\n\n>At least 33% of the player's opponents must be Grandmasters.\n\n>At least 50% of the player's opponents must hold a FIDE title other than Candidate Master and Woman Candidate Master.\n\n>The player's opponents must have an average rating of at least 2380.\n\n>The player's opponents must come from at least 3 different chess federations, which can include the player's own federation. A maximum of 60% of a player's opponents can come from the player's own federation. A maximum of 66% of a player's opponents can come from a single federation.\n\n>At least one norm must be scored at a Swiss tournament with at least 40 participants of average rating of 2000 and above.\n\n>2. An Elo rating of at least 2500 at any point (although they need not maintain this level to obtain or keep the title).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** when, before January 1, 2030, the [FIDE profile page of Levy Rozman](https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2039877) contains the word **Grandmaster** on a separate line in the **FIDE title** field. If the FIDE profile page of Levy Rozman does not contain the word Grandmaster on a separate line in the FIDE title field at any time before January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only the **Grandmaster** title would count for the resolution. Following titles will not count:\n\n* Honorary Grandmaster title (also this title will not be shown on the FIDE profile page). \n* Woman Grandmaster title (in case if Levy switches his gender and is accepted in the woman's tournament section).\n\nIf the FIDE website goes permanently offline or has its methodology or terminology change so dramatically that Admins deem the resolution method to be no longer viable, Admins will use their best judgment, based on credible sources, whether Rozman has achieved Grandmaster status. If there is no such information indicating this has happened, the question resolves as No.\n\nIn the event of hacking or any other credible reason to believe Rozman's profile contains incorrect information, Metaculus Admins will delay resolution to allow the issue to be resolved. However, in the absence of any such information or controversy, this question should resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 26529, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758236182.74583, "end_time": 1759758282.889023, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758236182.74583, "end_time": 1759758282.889023, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2662170568919785 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 2.226870101483025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3548321949358996, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.43724091920239344, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287143.461736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287143.461736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7551195805510786, 0.2448804194489214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Levy Rozman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levy_Rozman) known online as GothamChess, is an American chess International Master and content creator who got famous during COVID-19 pandemic for his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@GothamChess) as well as collaboration with chess Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura.\n\nLevy aquired his IM title in 2018 but then made a pause in his professional career focusing more on teaching, creating chess content and playing online chess tournaments. He made an attempt to fulfill GM norms in 2021-2022 playing an over-the-board tournament in Las Vegas but it was unsuccessful back then.\n\nOn 23 April 2024, he [posted a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zF4S9MfiJHM&list=PLBRObSmbZluT8Sr0KWZisAyuvMxBSEVLy) announcing his return to the over-the-board tournaments and renewing his efforts to reach the Grandmaster title, which for Levy would be more difficult considering his age (28 years at the moment of question writing).\n\nIn modern days, most GMs reach their title during their teenage years or early twenties. It is considered that human brain is much harder to train to make deep chess calculations later in life.\n\nAmong [all the players who received non-honorary GM title in 2023 and until 23 July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_grandmasters) only 7 people were older than Levy while 52 were younger than him.\n\nAs of July 2024, to become a grandmaster, a player must achieve both of the following:\n\n>1. Favorable results (called norms) from a total of at least 27 games in tournaments. With some exceptions, to receive a norm in a tournament:\n\n>The player's performance rating at the end of the tournament must be at least 2600. (Tournaments are no longer classified in categories.)\n\n>At least 33% of the player's opponents must be Grandmasters.\n\n>At least 50% of the player's opponents must hold a FIDE title other than Candidate Master and Woman Candidate Master.\n\n>The player's opponents must have an average rating of at least 2380.\n\n>The player's opponents must come from at least 3 different chess federations, which can include the player's own federation. A maximum of 60% of a player's opponents can come from the player's own federation. A maximum of 66% of a player's opponents can come from a single federation.\n\n>At least one norm must be scored at a Swiss tournament with at least 40 participants of average rating of 2000 and above.\n\n>2. An Elo rating of at least 2500 at any point (although they need not maintain this level to obtain or keep the title)." }, { "id": 26526, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Youtube banned in Russia before October 2024", "url_title": "Youtube banned in Russia before October 2024", "slug": "youtube-banned-in-russia-before-october-2024", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T10:46:57.045513Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.948724Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26526, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T10:46:57.045513Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.\n\nThe state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. \n\nIf the message returned is: \"доступ ограничивается к странице\" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf the message returned is: \"По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено\" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is *not* included in the blocklist and this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis question also resolves as **Yes** if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Note that the shortened version, `youtu.be` is already included in the blocklist, and this site does NOT trigger the resolution.\n\nMetaculus admins may also use another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if they have reasons to believe that the Roskomnadzor site's data are inaccurate.\n\nChanges in the phrasing used by Roskomnadzor's blocklist site will not affect resolution of this question, since the question resolves based on whether access to YouTube is limited or restricted according to Roskomnadzor, regardless of the exact wording.", "post_id": 26526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687370.034188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687370.034188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023253162461415407 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.365743313186591, 11.719492184599796, 1.8968922596100486, 0.3633306695295169, 0.18113578061632554, 0.48281267072666134, 0.005447108271251405, 0.07964063731595822, 0.0, 0.004349449401938421, 0.043704494593991394, 0.07510531896447714, 0.03416162461742331, 0.12324157488957621, 0.0, 0.03949442271044781, 0.0, 0.00136459540934999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016412232683670064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012301121829596984, 0.0, 0.11654637890008235, 0.0008491777963649872, 0.0, 0.001117711579562168, 0.0, 0.05249003991684491, 0.0005929856131286975, 0.0, 2.1476123207946604e-05, 0.0, 2.7650361714444973e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004058421909683781, 0.0, 0.0021931362333509827, 8.134274748759226e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027805412282399317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005554191794204343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002711955519079509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014664357190288503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.670232682997203e-05, 5.8849074632554245e-05, 0.0, 0.00017602121318625194, 0.0, 0.00022901604102788374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.018107918923645e-05, 3.7995816249788413e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00797184847545612, 3.911885782499499e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.829164723712185e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3502031483901746e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27792917374423565 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.68208155247309, "coverage": 0.9999788362427063, "baseline_score": 70.47068520380272, "spot_peer_score": 2.494008690206395, "peer_archived_score": 33.68208155247309, "baseline_archived_score": 70.47068520380272, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.494008690206395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687370.108847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687370.108847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 939, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn." }, { "id": 26522, "title": "Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company military power?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company military power?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-ai-company-military-power", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-22T23:08:44.883199Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:21:22.468577Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26522, "title": "Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?", "created_at": "2024-07-22T23:08:44.883199Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T11:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Once upon a time, there was a company that was a major military power:\n\n> The East India Company was an English, and later British, joint-stock company founded in 1600 and dissolved in 1874. It was formed to trade in the Indian Ocean region, initially with the East Indies (the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia), and later with East Asia. The company gained control of large parts of the Indian subcontinent and colonised parts of Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. At its peak, the company was the largest corporation in the world by various measures and had its own armed forces in the form of the company’s three [presidency armies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_armies), totalling about 260,000 soldiers, twice the size of the British army at the time.\n> \n> Originally chartered as the “Governor and Company of Merchants of London Trading into the East-Indies”, the company rose to account for half of the world's trade during the mid-1700s and early 1800s, particularly in basic commodities including cotton, silk, indigo dye, sugar, salt, spices, saltpetre, tea, and later, opium. The company also initiated the beginnings of the British Empire in India.\n> \n> The company eventually came to rule large areas of India, exercising military power and assuming administrative functions. Company-ruled areas in India gradually expanded after the Battle of Plassey in 1757 and by 1858 most of modern India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was either ruled by the company or princely states closely tied to it by treaty. Following the Indian Rebellion of 1857, the Government of India Act 1858 led to the British Crown assuming direct control of India in the form of the new British Raj.<br/>\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company)\n\nIf AGI (and/or the even more advanced AI that follows AGI) lends a sizeable military advantage to those who possess it, as some (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/#The_military_advantage_would_be_decisive_even_against_nuclear_deterrents)) seem to think will be the case, then an AI company could emerge as a military player, much like the East India Company of old but perhaps even more powerful. This question asks about the chance of that happening.\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26359/5y-after-agi-ai-company-dominates-economy/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, an AI company has either signed a treaty with or waged a war against a [sovereign state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states), according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) (e.g., news, government, or multi-national sources). This question resolves as **No**, otherwise.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Treaty” includes both [executive agreements](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm#:~:text=In%20recent%20decades%2C%20presidents%20have,the%20parties%20under%20international%20law) and [non-binding agreements](https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1444). It does not matter, for resolution, whether the treaty is bilateral or multilateral, so long as it includes at least one AI company and at least one sovereign nation.\n* “War” means the two involved parties collectively suffering at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year. \n* An AI company will be considered to be involved in a war if credible reports indicate the company, or parties paid by the company, are a participating entity in such a conflict and have experienced and/or caused at least 500 deaths.\n* A sovereign state means any UN member state, any UN non-member observer state, and/or any state which is diplomatically recognized by at least 10 other states.", "fine_print": "An AI company that has been absorbed by government or which is effectively controlled by government does not count for Yes resolution. In case of ambiguity over whether the company in question is effectively controlled by government, Metaculus admins will make a ruling. As a guideline, things like forced production, a Manhattan-style project, or outright nationalization will count as “the company is effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company does not count for Yes resolution),” while things like government shareownership or subsidization will count as “the company is not effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company counts for Yes resolution).”\n\nIf an AI company is hired by a sovereign nation as a military contractor, or funded by a sovereign nation for the purposes of building a private military, and participates in a war under those circumstances, that will not count for a Yes resolution.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758117462.83546, "end_time": 1763831460.055554, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758117462.83546, "end_time": 1763831460.055554, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09767482547273892 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.73440527249818, 2.336388765938225, 0.2298789542266755, 0.6792404677074848, 0.0, 1.5674168331922727, 1.36355701181804, 0.34456062722226327, 0.0, 0.8215389831746046, 0.717952852712485, 0.06327492015001017, 0.09157390813266936, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 1.0455926491250749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4329104402601023, 0.4111953249574266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2613886343686929, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288102.776841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288102.776841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.993340487789514, 0.006659512210486001 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Once upon a time, there was a company that was a major military power:\n\n> The East India Company was an English, and later British, joint-stock company founded in 1600 and dissolved in 1874. It was formed to trade in the Indian Ocean region, initially with the East Indies (the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia), and later with East Asia. The company gained control of large parts of the Indian subcontinent and colonised parts of Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. At its peak, the company was the largest corporation in the world by various measures and had its own armed forces in the form of the company’s three [presidency armies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_armies), totalling about 260,000 soldiers, twice the size of the British army at the time.\n> \n> Originally chartered as the “Governor and Company of Merchants of London Trading into the East-Indies”, the company rose to account for half of the world's trade during the mid-1700s and early 1800s, particularly in basic commodities including cotton, silk, indigo dye, sugar, salt, spices, saltpetre, tea, and later, opium. The company also initiated the beginnings of the British Empire in India.\n> \n> The company eventually came to rule large areas of India, exercising military power and assuming administrative functions. Company-ruled areas in India gradually expanded after the Battle of Plassey in 1757 and by 1858 most of modern India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was either ruled by the company or princely states closely tied to it by treaty. Following the Indian Rebellion of 1857, the Government of India Act 1858 led to the British Crown assuming direct control of India in the form of the new British Raj.<br/>\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company)\n\nIf AGI (and/or the even more advanced AI that follows AGI) lends a sizeable military advantage to those who possess it, as some (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/#The_military_advantage_would_be_decisive_even_against_nuclear_deterrents)) seem to think will be the case, then an AI company could emerge as a military player, much like the East India Company of old but perhaps even more powerful. This question asks about the chance of that happening.\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26359/5y-after-agi-ai-company-dominates-economy/)”)" }, { "id": 26521, "title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "short_title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "url_title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "slug": "is-gilbreaths-conjecture-true", "author_id": 192660, "author_username": "pablo-csv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-22T22:58:30.148560Z", "published_at": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.933894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26521, "title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "created_at": "2024-07-22T22:58:30.148560Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbreath%27s_conjecture), “Gilbreath's conjecture is a conjecture in number theory regarding the sequences generated by applying the forward difference operator to consecutive prime numbers and leaving the results unsigned, and then repeating this process on consecutive terms in the resulting sequence, and so forth.\n\nGilbreath observed a pattern while playing with the ordered sequence of prime numbers\n\n2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, ...\n\nComputing the absolute value of the difference between term n + 1 and term n in this sequence yields the sequence\n\n1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, ...\n\nIf the same calculation is done for the terms in this new sequence, and the sequence that is the outcome of this process, and again ad infinitum for each sequence that is the output of such a calculation, the following five sequences in this list are\n\n1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 2, ...\n\nWhat Gilbreath noticed is that the first term in each series of differences appears to be 1.”", "resolution_criteria": "Gilbreath's conjecture states that every first term of the described sequences is 1 ad infinitum.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture in a major Mathematics journal before January 1, 2100. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time.\n\nIf the correctness of the proof given in the publication takes time to be recognized by the mathematics community, the question will resolve when Metaculus admins judge that the proof has gained sufficient recognition.\n\nIf the conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous. Also, if it is proven that Gilbreath's conjecture cannot be proven either true or false, this question will resolve as ambiguous, too.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723106805.357878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.679 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723106805.357878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.679 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7783755634394894 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289896.141678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289896.141678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3862007549455502, 0.6137992450544498 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbreath%27s_conjecture), “Gilbreath's conjecture is a conjecture in number theory regarding the sequences generated by applying the forward difference operator to consecutive prime numbers and leaving the results unsigned, and then repeating this process on consecutive terms in the resulting sequence, and so forth.\n\nGilbreath observed a pattern while playing with the ordered sequence of prime numbers\n\n2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, ...\n\nComputing the absolute value of the difference between term n + 1 and term n in this sequence yields the sequence\n\n1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, ...\n\nIf the same calculation is done for the terms in this new sequence, and the sequence that is the outcome of this process, and again ad infinitum for each sequence that is the output of such a calculation, the following five sequences in this list are\n\n1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 2, ...\n\nWhat Gilbreath noticed is that the first term in each series of differences appears to be 1.”" }, { "id": 26419, "title": "Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, farthest spacecraft?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, farthest spacecraft?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-farthest-spacecraft", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-20T14:43:53.933093Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T17:58:19.979421Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26419, "title": "Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?", "created_at": "2024-07-20T14:43:53.933093Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” At the same time, discussions around what humanity should do post-AGI often involve some form of “colonize the stars.” This question aims to shed light on whether colonization will have started in the few years following AGI.\n___\n\n> The twin Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are exploring where nothing from Earth has flown before. Continuing on their more-than-40-year journey since their 1977 launches, they each are much farther away from Earth and the sun than Pluto. In August 2012, Voyager 1 made the historic entry into interstellar space, the region between stars, filled with material ejected by the death of nearby stars millions of years ago [...] Both spacecraft are still sending scientific information about their surroundings through the Deep Space Network, or DSN.\n> \n> The primary mission was the exploration of Jupiter and Saturn. After making a string of discoveries there — such as active volcanoes on Jupiter's moon Io and intricacies of Saturn's rings — the mission was extended.<br/>\n> [—NASA JPL a](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/)\n\nVoyager 1, as of July 2024, is 15.2 billion miles away from Earth and traveling away at 38,000 miles per hour, which is roughly one seventeen-thousandth the speed of light ([NASA JPL b](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/)) Theoretically, however, there is no reason why spacecraft cannot travel at speeds approaching light speed: such spacecraft would quickly overtake Voyager. There have been various proposals for what these spacecraft of the future might look like, ranging from “nukes as rockets,” to light sails, to antimatter drives and pion drives, to “kugelblitz” black hole engines ([PBS Space Time, 2015](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzZGPCyrpSU)) If there is an explosion in technological advancement following AGI, as some experts think there will be, then these spacecraft of the future might in fact be on our horizon. Humanity could soon be on its way to colonizing the stars.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that Voyager 1 is no longer the farthest spacecraft from Earth.", "fine_print": "Discovery of an alien spacecraft further out from Earth than Voyager 1 will not resolve this question as Yes.\n___\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26419, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758318344.170746, "end_time": 1759021281.49034, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758318344.170746, "end_time": 1759021281.49034, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.11890727585410203 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.0519823301962905, 2.182853420936333, 0.06395130800982807, 0.1405470336200478, 0.10527918291777463, 0.4181803778135296, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16692841638394568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289371.504341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289371.504341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9728661857020441, 0.027133814297955926 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” At the same time, discussions around what humanity should do post-AGI often involve some form of “colonize the stars.” This question aims to shed light on whether colonization will have started in the few years following AGI.\n___\n\n> The twin Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are exploring where nothing from Earth has flown before. Continuing on their more-than-40-year journey since their 1977 launches, they each are much farther away from Earth and the sun than Pluto. In August 2012, Voyager 1 made the historic entry into interstellar space, the region between stars, filled with material ejected by the death of nearby stars millions of years ago [...] Both spacecraft are still sending scientific information about their surroundings through the Deep Space Network, or DSN.\n> \n> The primary mission was the exploration of Jupiter and Saturn. After making a string of discoveries there — such as active volcanoes on Jupiter's moon Io and intricacies of Saturn's rings — the mission was extended.<br/>\n> [—NASA JPL a](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/)\n\nVoyager 1, as of July 2024, is 15.2 billion miles away from Earth and traveling away at 38,000 miles per hour, which is roughly one seventeen-thousandth the speed of light ([NASA JPL b](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/)) Theoretically, however, there is no reason why spacecraft cannot travel at speeds approaching light speed: such spacecraft would quickly overtake Voyager. There have been various proposals for what these spacecraft of the future might look like, ranging from “nukes as rockets,” to light sails, to antimatter drives and pion drives, to “kugelblitz” black hole engines ([PBS Space Time, 2015](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzZGPCyrpSU)) If there is an explosion in technological advancement following AGI, as some experts think there will be, then these spacecraft of the future might in fact be on our horizon. Humanity could soon be on its way to colonizing the stars." }, { "id": 26418, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be democracy?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, democracy?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, democracy?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-democracy", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-20T13:21:14.140826Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.659715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26418, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be democracy?", "created_at": "2024-07-20T13:21:14.140826Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T17:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies?tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\"></iframe>\n\nFrom [Our World in Data (2024)]((https://ourworldindata.org/less-democratic)):\n\n> Many more people than in the past have democratic rights. But now there is growing concern that this progress is currently being partially undone. Is this true? Has the world become less democratic recently?\n>[ …]\n> \n> Democracy is in decline, whether we look at big changes in the number of democracies and the people living in them; at small changes in the extent of democratic rights; or at medium-sized changes in the number of, and people living in, countries that are autocratizing.\n> \n> The extent of this decline is substantial, but it is also uncertain and limited. We can see it clearly across democracy metrics: the world has fallen from all-time democratic highs to a level similar to earlier decades. But the extent of this decline depends on which democracy measure we use. And it is limited in the sense that the world remains much more democratic than it was even half a century ago.\n> \n> Finally, the recent democratic decline is precedented, and past declines were reversed. The world underwent phases of autocratization in the 1930s and again in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, people fought to turn the tide, and pushed democratic rights to unprecedented heights. We can do the same again.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts are concerned that AGI will have negative impacts on democracy, possibly ending it altogether. [Lazar and Pascal (2024)](https://www.techpolicy.press/can-democracy-survive-artificial-general-intelligence/) write:\n\n> But does the path to AGI lead somewhere that democracies should go? In 2023, many loudly argued ‘no,’ not because of the implications for democracy, but because they think AGI poses an [existential threat to humanity](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk) at large. A range of experts have presented scenarios, ranging from speculative to compelling, in which AGI is humanity’s final, civilization-ending invention. The leading AI labs also feel this critique keenly, and have built research teams aiming to ‘align’ AGI (and ASI, its superintelligent successor) to make it ‘safe, beneficial, and controllable.’ But even if we can align AGI to meet these criteria (assuming we can decide, democratically, what they mean and how to achieve them), this would still not be enough for AGI to be safe for democracy.\n> \n> Here’s why. If AGI is better than most humans at all cognitive tasks, it is very likely to be better than humans at the numerous tasks of governing—that is, designing, implementing, and enforcing the rules by which a community or institution operates. This will create a compelling incentive to invest AGI with governing power at all levels of society—from clubs, schools, and workplaces, to the administrative agencies that regulate and help steward the economy, labor, the environment, transport and healthcare, and even provide for public safety, criminal justice, and election administration. If in fact AGI is much better at executing the tasks that we give it than humans (as its would-be creators intend), there will be a strong, perhaps irresistible temptation to have it identify and select which tasks to pursue, then to have it set our priorities, not just make and enforce our rules in particular domains. As new threats and problems arise faster than we can process them, we may very well entrust AGI with a blanket authority to prioritize, decide and act on our behalf. We would de facto be kissing good-bye to democracy in any real sense of its value and practice. Think of this threat as an absent-minded walk down a political primrose path, not the more widely-discussed ‘rogue AI’ scenarios. We already see this kind of easy deference to existing, deeply flawed computational systems. It would only be exacerbated with AGI.\n> \n> From decades of work on automation, we know that in every domain, from manufacturing to algorithmic trading, automating a task and then relying on humans for oversight at critical moments is a [doomed project](https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica.pdf). The goal of making future AGI systems ‘controllable’ cannot be achieved through technology design alone. For *anything* to be controllable, we have to presuppose something or someone doing the controlling. It is not enough to design systems that could in principle be controlled, but where we can reliably predict, based on past experience, that humans will fail to use the controls that we have designed for them. Nor is having some AGIs control others an adequate answer. For AGI to be safe for democracy, *democratic institutions* run by people must be able and expected to exercise meaningful control. This may well require rethinking the aging institutions of constitutional democracy itself—something that only we, the People, can legitimately do.\n\nOthers still are concerned about more extreme scenarios, like a leading AI company or an authoritarian state achieving a decisive military advantage (enabled by superintelligence) and seizing power by overthrowing democratic rivals (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/)).\n\nNick Bostrom, known for his far-out thinking, heads in a different direction, arguing that radical preventive policing, such as universal surveillance, and a centralized decision-making authority (aka [singleton](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/singleton.pdf)) are needed for humanity to survive beyond AGI into the long run ([2019](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf)) These things are in tension with the ideals of liberal democracy; what tradeoffs to make remains an open question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the percentage of people in the world living in a liberal democracy, in the year 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, according to the Our World in Data (OWID) data accessible at this link: [OWID: People living in democracies and autocracies, World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies).\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nWalking through the calculation for getting from the reported OWID data to how “percentage living in a liberal democracy” will be resolved: For 2023, OWID reports a total of 8.03 billion people, of whom 1.05 live in liberal democracies. Therefore, for 2023 this question would have resolved as (1.05 billion / 8.03 billion) x 100% = 13.1%.\n\nResolution will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by OWID; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.", "fine_print": "If data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion. If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies?tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\"></iframe>\n\nFrom [Our World in Data (2024)]((https://ourworldindata.org/less-democratic)):\n\n> Many more people than in the past have democratic rights. But now there is growing concern that this progress is currently being partially undone. Is this true? Has the world become less democratic recently?\n>[ …]\n> \n> Democracy is in decline, whether we look at big changes in the number of democracies and the people living in them; at small changes in the extent of democratic rights; or at medium-sized changes in the number of, and people living in, countries that are autocratizing.\n> \n> The extent of this decline is substantial, but it is also uncertain and limited. We can see it clearly across democracy metrics: the world has fallen from all-time democratic highs to a level similar to earlier decades. But the extent of this decline depends on which democracy measure we use. And it is limited in the sense that the world remains much more democratic than it was even half a century ago.\n> \n> Finally, the recent democratic decline is precedented, and past declines were reversed. The world underwent phases of autocratization in the 1930s and again in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, people fought to turn the tide, and pushed democratic rights to unprecedented heights. We can do the same again.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts are concerned that AGI will have negative impacts on democracy, possibly ending it altogether. [Lazar and Pascal (2024)](https://www.techpolicy.press/can-democracy-survive-artificial-general-intelligence/) write:\n\n> But does the path to AGI lead somewhere that democracies should go? In 2023, many loudly argued ‘no,’ not because of the implications for democracy, but because they think AGI poses an [existential threat to humanity](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk) at large. A range of experts have presented scenarios, ranging from speculative to compelling, in which AGI is humanity’s final, civilization-ending invention. The leading AI labs also feel this critique keenly, and have built research teams aiming to ‘align’ AGI (and ASI, its superintelligent successor) to make it ‘safe, beneficial, and controllable.’ But even if we can align AGI to meet these criteria (assuming we can decide, democratically, what they mean and how to achieve them), this would still not be enough for AGI to be safe for democracy.\n> \n> Here’s why. If AGI is better than most humans at all cognitive tasks, it is very likely to be better than humans at the numerous tasks of governing—that is, designing, implementing, and enforcing the rules by which a community or institution operates. This will create a compelling incentive to invest AGI with governing power at all levels of society—from clubs, schools, and workplaces, to the administrative agencies that regulate and help steward the economy, labor, the environment, transport and healthcare, and even provide for public safety, criminal justice, and election administration. If in fact AGI is much better at executing the tasks that we give it than humans (as its would-be creators intend), there will be a strong, perhaps irresistible temptation to have it identify and select which tasks to pursue, then to have it set our priorities, not just make and enforce our rules in particular domains. As new threats and problems arise faster than we can process them, we may very well entrust AGI with a blanket authority to prioritize, decide and act on our behalf. We would de facto be kissing good-bye to democracy in any real sense of its value and practice. Think of this threat as an absent-minded walk down a political primrose path, not the more widely-discussed ‘rogue AI’ scenarios. We already see this kind of easy deference to existing, deeply flawed computational systems. It would only be exacerbated with AGI.\n> \n> From decades of work on automation, we know that in every domain, from manufacturing to algorithmic trading, automating a task and then relying on humans for oversight at critical moments is a [doomed project](https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica.pdf). The goal of making future AGI systems ‘controllable’ cannot be achieved through technology design alone. For *anything* to be controllable, we have to presuppose something or someone doing the controlling. It is not enough to design systems that could in principle be controlled, but where we can reliably predict, based on past experience, that humans will fail to use the controls that we have designed for them. Nor is having some AGIs control others an adequate answer. For AGI to be safe for democracy, *democratic institutions* run by people must be able and expected to exercise meaningful control. This may well require rethinking the aging institutions of constitutional democracy itself—something that only we, the People, can legitimately do.\n\nOthers still are concerned about more extreme scenarios, like a leading AI company or an authoritarian state achieving a decisive military advantage (enabled by superintelligence) and seizing power by overthrowing democratic rivals (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/)).\n\nNick Bostrom, known for his far-out thinking, heads in a different direction, arguing that radical preventive policing, such as universal surveillance, and a centralized decision-making authority (aka [singleton](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/singleton.pdf)) are needed for humanity to survive beyond AGI into the long run ([2019](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf)) These things are in tension with the ideals of liberal democracy; what tradeoffs to make remains an open question." }, { "id": 26408, "title": "Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-minimum-wage-in-turkiye-turkey-increase-again-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.749313Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.845545Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26408, "title": "Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.749313Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 and 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_Turkey). The last minimum wage increase was [on January, 1, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-raises-monthly-minimum-wage-by-49-2024-2023-12-27/), when wages rose by 50%. However, it was already [partially eaten by inflation](https://stockholmcf.org/turkeys-hunger-threshold-exceeds-minimum-wage/). The share of workers receiving minimum wage is estimated to be between [33% and 50%](https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-s-minimum-wage-becoming-average-wage-protest-unions-304930/#:~:text=Around%2050%25%20of%20workers%20in,to%20DISK%20chair%20Arzu%20Cerkezoglu.).\n\nRecently the ruling party of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost in local elections, in what has been described as a \"[historic victory](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/)\" for the opposition. There has been speculation that this might spark populist policies such as an increased minimum wage, but in April 2024 the Turkish Labor and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan [said](https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-labor-minister-rules-out-second-minimum-wage-hike-in-2024-news-64217) about a possible second minimum wage hike, \"We have no such agenda. We will continue as we decided at the beginning.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before September 30, 2024, that another minimum wage increase was going to take effect in Turkey in 2024. Wage increases that are approved before September 30, 2024, but taking effect in 2025 (e.g., starting January, 1, 2025) do not count towards resolution. If no such report is made before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.\n", "fine_print": "Increases of any size, no matter how small, count towards the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 26408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830547.011556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.205 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830547.011556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.205 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3978746633741804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12214656033626006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4874446759504965, 0.0, 0.795346328092568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03399241299535737, 0.0, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.570129095825822, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.5599024685085519, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4959827095661699, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2181690215100436, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2705719207183073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3702934678804022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830547.045677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830547.045677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7571993974554572, 0.2428006025445429 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 and 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_Turkey). The last minimum wage increase was [on January, 1, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-raises-monthly-minimum-wage-by-49-2024-2023-12-27/), when wages rose by 50%. However, it was already [partially eaten by inflation](https://stockholmcf.org/turkeys-hunger-threshold-exceeds-minimum-wage/). The share of workers receiving minimum wage is estimated to be between [33% and 50%](https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-s-minimum-wage-becoming-average-wage-protest-unions-304930/#:~:text=Around%2050%25%20of%20workers%20in,to%20DISK%20chair%20Arzu%20Cerkezoglu.).\n\nRecently the ruling party of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost in local elections, in what has been described as a \"[historic victory](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/)\" for the opposition. There has been speculation that this might spark populist policies such as an increased minimum wage, but in April 2024 the Turkish Labor and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan [said](https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-labor-minister-rules-out-second-minimum-wage-hike-in-2024-news-64217) about a possible second minimum wage hike, \"We have no such agenda. We will continue as we decided at the beginning.\"" }, { "id": 26407, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-start-a-second-mobilization-wave-before-september-30-2024-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.646545Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.866886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26407, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.646545Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- For this resolution, \"mobilization\" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a \"partial mobilization.\" However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as \"[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)\" or \"self-mobilization,\" or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.\n\n- If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.\n\n- ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before September 30, 202, then this question will resolve as No.\n", "post_id": 26407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830585.327634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830585.327634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43904293505892655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1363712835194701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28794148447432993, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8698739979517854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23862194135813283, 0.0, 0.3316752429508374, 0.0, 0.836190079618154, 1.296851155527498, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9225774080436027, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8709205728864997, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09329258471159352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48035412566887614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830585.367627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830585.367627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7437000300782899, 0.25629996992171017 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)" }, { "id": 26406, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-maximum-weekly-rate-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-occurring-in-the-united-states-between-june-1-and-august-31-2024-exceed-35-per-100000-people", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.552776Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.774133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26406, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.552776Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning).\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospital admissions per 100,000 people for COVID-19 between the weeks ending June 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024, (inclusive) exceeds 3.5 according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays, the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the figure for August 31, 2024, is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "* The following filters will be selected:\n\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\n * **Season:** \"2023-24\" (or whichever selections will encompass the dates in question)\n * **Pathogen:** \"All\" (Note that you can also filter to only show the pathogen of interest. Regardless, only the value corresponding to the listed pathogen will be used.)\n* This question is asking about the global maximum weekly rate, the highest value reached during the specified period.\n* In the event the data reporting is missing for more than two of the weeks included in the period when the question is expected to resolve, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 26406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830611.243253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830611.243253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.502435733355728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.14267316330622615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8033422037945773, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08216112299324102, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2194273160075377, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7800991750591255, 0.24008158120479622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7283896542557704, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42198150311045435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830611.280319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830611.280319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6704755836563716, 0.32952441634362833 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning).\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy)." }, { "id": 26405, "title": "Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-5-major-hurricanes-occur-in-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.470565Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.024391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26405, "title": "Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.470565Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane, was the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. On July 2, 2024, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to form. Colorado State university [is forecasting](https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) 6 major storms for 2024 as of July 19, 2024. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of major hurricanes in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season stands at greater than or equal to five before September 30, 2024, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [website](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc). If the number is less than five when the NHC website is accessed by Metaculus on September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe National Weather Service [considers](https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson) a major hurricane to be anything Category Three or above, defined as having a 1-minute average of wind speeds greater than 110 mph (>95 knots or >177 km/hr).\n", "fine_print": "If the official NHC page is inaccessible or there is reason to believe its data is incorrect, another resolution source may be used.", "post_id": 26405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830565.983779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830565.983779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7065012329451698 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23756516408887024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059093793063776906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7228487183092427, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11106637212534022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0088805867307373, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.46916959902833105, 0.004870516352324537, 0.8646675238447779, 0.3559187878370533, 0.926176038271715, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6170526440862192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7911029106223837, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4167700814197737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9235250802035939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830566.024591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830566.024591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3709186897218103, 0.6290813102781897 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane, was the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. On July 2, 2024, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to form. Colorado State university [is forecasting](https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) 6 major storms for 2024 as of July 19, 2024. " }, { "id": 26404, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.335521Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.414737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26404, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.335521Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before September 30, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26404, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830628.514949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2833333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830628.514949, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2833333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44519523618984874 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.236457063506426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.18979852012420823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2816220478900857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6175015433662991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5506534361945985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22140050320014693, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5638422747701086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.6571444928584438, 0.0, 0.8156786313482807, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 1.105491931775022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830628.550454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830628.550454, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6391503155883985, 0.3608496844116015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n" }, { "id": 26392, "title": "Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-announce-gpt-5-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.388128Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.530704Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26392, "title": "Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.388128Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) announcing the existence of GPT-5. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Metaculus admins will be consulted should there be any ambiguity. ", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question GPT-5 will be considered to exist if the document published by OpenAI describes some performance results from GPT-5 or states that GPT-5 has been created. A reference to progress in training or developing GPT-5 would not qualify on its own. If OpenAI publishes some performance results from GPT-5 and states that GPT-5 is still undergoing some form of training or testing this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* The model must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces a model called \"GPT-5\" or claimed to be a successor to GPT-4 but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will **not** be sufficient.\n* If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was [previously described as GPT-5](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-building-next-generation-ai-173047260.html).", "post_id": 26392, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744147.222337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.243 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.415 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744147.222337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.243 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.415 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.757, 0.243 ], "means": [ 0.303789726568666 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.1337749065134544, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.9789107500240921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9186613508961297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41744142835195325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20844974024339083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5649669229669425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05850031242291996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 59.83652053236445, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 59.83652053236445 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744147.243511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744147.243511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7424445255792778, 0.25755547442072224 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/). " }, { "id": 26391, "title": "Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-israel-hamas-conflict-ceasefire-lasting-at-least-30-days-be-agreed-to-before-august-31-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.097014Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.496495Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26391, "title": "Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before August 31, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.097014Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-31T13:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-31T13:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve as \"Yes\", Israel and Hamas must, before August 31st, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.\n\nIf there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve \"No\". The question will only resolve \"No\" if:\n\n- There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by August 30th at 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not start effect at least by September 29, 2024 at 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by October 4th at 11:59PM PDT.\n", "fine_print": "If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect.\n\nAttacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.\n\nA one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.\n\nCredit to [Infer-Pub](https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1353-will-there-be-an-agreed-upon-pause-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-hamas-that-starts-before-1-december-2024-and-lasts-at-least-30-days) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 26391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744163.642881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744163.642881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36526869805541406 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08876401083006372, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.5243776579668233, 0.2181568526776274, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.9160279542388619, 0.43670816614213404, 1.9409909373947505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.4601964085771605, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7043378440860788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07778848453959583, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744163.677773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744163.677773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7548194237695208, 0.24518057623047917 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)" }, { "id": 26390, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.012678Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.048610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26390, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.012678Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between now and before September 30, 2024, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.\n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/) under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does not resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).\n", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: If Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positively.\n", "post_id": 26390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744230.075207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744230.075207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.33333333333333337 ], "means": [ 0.3325502285337891 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8102054573170248, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.38043555332875517, 1.0786971606156608, 1.0, 0.0, 0.21748143718422047, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.21048406939484643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9778163735392204, 0.0, 0.428724223473282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 1.2032879714864246, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 41.50374992788437, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 41.50374992788437 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744230.102662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744230.102662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8190902050642055, 0.18090979493579448 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 26389, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.931363Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.061412Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26389, "title": "Will the Federal Reserve cut interest rates before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.931363Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. \n\nThe September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th. \n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces a reduction of any amount in the target federal funds rate range.\nThe primary resolution source is the FOMC's *target federal funds rate or range* webpage [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the Federal Reserve's official minutes and statements[here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm), or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) in case the Federal Reserve's website is unavailable.", "fine_print": "This question resolves based on the announcement. Therefore, the effective date of the rate cut does not need to be before September 30, 2024, as long as the announcement is made before then.", "post_id": 26389, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744202.523602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744202.523602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5966781872494329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07505093128992153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2204193690157557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12299450179962204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6687527598243457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9094037268229063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38993184174737905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.98714116529552, 0.0, 1.0513059022251439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.4962048672620673, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35472584077204483, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744202.547368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744202.547368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6257635896652933, 0.3742364103347067 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Federal Reserve's [target funds rate history page](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), the most recent rate cuts were on March 16, 2020, and March 3, 2020. Before then, there were three separate rate cuts in 2019. \n\nThe September 2024 FOMC meeting is [scheduled](https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2024/02/12/what-to-expect-from-the-feds-remaining-meetings-of-2024) for September 18th. \n" }, { "id": 26388, "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-athlete-win-more-than-one-medal-for-tennis-at-the-2024-paris-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.852897Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.098670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26388, "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.852897Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-06T00:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tennis at the Olympics has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.", "fine_print": "The type of medal does not matter, nor does it whether the doubles medal is in the athlete's own gender only or mixed.", "post_id": 26388, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744135.576817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744135.576817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.475, 0.525 ], "means": [ 0.5439201189285379 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772333620614413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0998503536880166, 0.07560105912010007, 0.1349426696819013, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.5865666265670905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 1.2897926863638505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3003860087132948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744135.598623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744135.598623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4867153513207655, 0.5132846486792345 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tennis at the Olympics has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?" }, { "id": 26387, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-increase-its-deliveries-in-q3-2024-compared-with-q2-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.694032Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.433002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26387, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? ", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.694032Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 443,956 vehicles delivered for the third quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 443,956 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. If Tesla does not report these numbers before October 16, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 26387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744179.949659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744179.949659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5913726362686632 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8055617015887526, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 1.1824933340774735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 1.243116734434214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7404338494245358, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.23009507213413613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.2979400467307407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6446318192424039, 0.6308407491715394, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744179.970189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744179.970189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4710196808089947, 0.5289803191910053 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024." }, { "id": 26363, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a ‘long reflection’ be underway?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, long reflection underway?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, long reflection underway?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-long-reflection-underway", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T17:53:12.747250Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:53:53.218331Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26363, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a ‘long reflection’ be underway?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T17:53:12.747250Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Some effective altruists, including [Toby Ord](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/toby-ord) and [William MacAskill](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/william-macaskill), have argued that, if humanity succeeds in eliminating [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-risk?tab=wiki) or reducing it to acceptable levels, it should not immediately embark on an ambitious and potentially irreversible project of arranging the [universe's resources](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/universe-s-resources) in accordance to its values, but ought instead to spend considerable time— \"centuries (or more)\"; \"perhaps tens of thousands of years\"; \"thousands or millions of years\"; \"[p]erhaps... a million years\"—figuring out what is in fact of value. The long reflection may thus be seen as an intermediate stage in a rational long-term human developmental trajectory, following an initial stage of [existential security](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-security) when existential risk is drastically reduced and followed by a final stage when humanity's potential is fully realized.<br/>\n> [—EA Forum Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/long-reflection)\n\nNote that more recent thinking suggests a long reflection aided by advanced AI could happen much faster than the timeframes cited above:\n\n> Original discussion of the long reflection indicated that it could be a lengthy process of 10,000 years or more. More recent discussion [...] i) takes seriously the possibility that the long reflection could last just weeks rather than years or millenia, and ii) notes that wall clock time is probably not the most useful way to think about the length of the reflection, given that the reflection process, if it happens at all, will likely involve [many](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-collectives) [superfast](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/speed-superintelligence) AIs doing the bulk of the cognitive labor.<br/>\n> [—Aldred, 2024, fn. 4](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list)\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26268/5y-after-agi-ai-philosophical-competence/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "Operationalizing a long reflection being in progress is tricky, not least because nobody is sure what a long reflection might even [concretely look like](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#Institutional_design_for_the_long_reflection).\n\nTherefore, this question will be resolved by a [judging panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil). This question resolves as **Yes** if, within 5 years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, majority vote amongst a judging panel of long reflection experts (to the extent that anyone is an expert in this domain), assembled in good faith by Metaculus, indicates that a long reflection is underway.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nA judging panel will be assembled upon [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that a long reflection might be underway (and assembled again if a panel previously voted “no,” but new relevant developments have taken place), where the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) counts as a credible source.", "fine_print": "We will use the following definition, from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/long-reflection): \n\n> The long reflection is a hypothesized period of time during which humanity works out how best to realize its long-term potential.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758234152.474098, "end_time": 1760262166.245787, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758234152.474098, "end_time": 1760262166.245787, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.21937653246900496 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4010082011534557, 0.19087229513091974, 0.41945982397260917, 0.7839525156336427, 1.127644373087013, 1.0632946946660151, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 1.1612550684424174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288678.560839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288678.560839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9885322530001661, 0.0114677469998339 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Some effective altruists, including [Toby Ord](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/toby-ord) and [William MacAskill](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/william-macaskill), have argued that, if humanity succeeds in eliminating [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-risk?tab=wiki) or reducing it to acceptable levels, it should not immediately embark on an ambitious and potentially irreversible project of arranging the [universe's resources](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/universe-s-resources) in accordance to its values, but ought instead to spend considerable time— \"centuries (or more)\"; \"perhaps tens of thousands of years\"; \"thousands or millions of years\"; \"[p]erhaps... a million years\"—figuring out what is in fact of value. The long reflection may thus be seen as an intermediate stage in a rational long-term human developmental trajectory, following an initial stage of [existential security](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-security) when existential risk is drastically reduced and followed by a final stage when humanity's potential is fully realized.<br/>\n> [—EA Forum Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/long-reflection)\n\nNote that more recent thinking suggests a long reflection aided by advanced AI could happen much faster than the timeframes cited above:\n\n> Original discussion of the long reflection indicated that it could be a lengthy process of 10,000 years or more. More recent discussion [...] i) takes seriously the possibility that the long reflection could last just weeks rather than years or millenia, and ii) notes that wall clock time is probably not the most useful way to think about the length of the reflection, given that the reflection process, if it happens at all, will likely involve [many](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-collectives) [superfast](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/speed-superintelligence) AIs doing the bulk of the cognitive labor.<br/>\n> [—Aldred, 2024, fn. 4](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list)\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26268/5y-after-agi-ai-philosophical-competence/)”)" }, { "id": 26361, "title": "Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, quantum gravity solved?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, quantum gravity solved?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-quantum-gravity-solved", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:38:56.436897Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.256626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26361, "title": "Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:38:56.436897Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_gravity):\n> Quantum gravity is a field of theoretical physics that seeks to describe gravity according to the principles of quantum mechanics. It deals with environments in which neither gravitational nor quantum effects can be ignored, such as in the vicinity of black holes or similar compact astrophysical objects, such as neutron stars, as well as in the early stages of the universe moments after the Big Bang.\n> \n> Three of the four fundamental forces of nature are described within the framework of quantum mechanics and quantum field theory: the electromagnetic interaction, the strong force, and the weak force; this leaves gravity as the only interaction that has not been fully accommodated. The current understanding of gravity is based on Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which incorporates his theory of special relativity and deeply modifies the understanding of concepts like time and space. Although general relativity is highly regarded for its elegance and accuracy, it has limitations: the gravitational singularities inside black holes, the ad hoc postulation of dark matter, as well as dark energy and its relation to the cosmological constant are among the current unsolved mysteries regarding gravity, all of which signal the collapse of the general theory of relativity at different scales and highlight the need for a gravitational theory that goes into the quantum realm. At distances close to the Planck length, like those near the center of the black hole, quantum fluctuations of spacetime are expected to play an important role. Finally, the discrepancies between the predicted value for the vacuum energy and the observed values (which, depending on considerations, can be of 60 or 120 orders of magnitude) highlight the necessity for a quantum theory of gravity.\n> \n> The field of quantum gravity is actively developing, and theorists are exploring a variety of approaches to the problem of quantum gravity, the most popular being M-theory and loop quantum gravity. All of these approaches aim to describe the quantum behavior of the gravitational field, which does not necessarily include unifying all fundamental interactions into a single mathematical framework. However, many approaches to quantum gravity, such as string theory, try to develop a framework that describes all fundamental forces. Such a theory is often referred to as a theory of everything. Some of the approaches, such as loop quantum gravity, make no such attempt; instead, they make an effort to quantize the gravitational field while it is kept separate from the other forces. Other lesser-known but no less important theories include Causal dynamical triangulation, Noncommutative geometry, and Twistor theory.\n> \n> One of the difficulties of formulating a quantum gravity theory is that direct observation of quantum gravitational effects is thought to only appear at length scales near the Planck scale, around 10−35 meters, a scale far smaller, and hence only accessible with far higher energies, than those currently available in high energy particle accelerators. Therefore, physicists lack experimental data which could distinguish between the competing theories which have been proposed.<br/>\n> …\n> \n> In the early 21st century, new experiment designs and technologies have arisen which suggest that indirect approaches to testing quantum gravity may be feasible over the next few decades. This field of study is called phenomenological quantum gravity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, scientific consensus indicates that quantum gravity has been solved, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). In case “consensus” having been reached is disputed, theoretical physicist (and Metaculus co-founder!) [Anthony Aguirre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Aguirre) will [provide a ruling](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil). If quantum gravity has not been solved in the five years following AGI’s arrival, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.", "fine_print": "If scientific consensus, at some point before resolution, indicates that trying to unify quantum physics with gravity was somehow a confused idea, then this question resolves as Yes if a physics breakthrough equivalent to solving quantum gravity has been made. (Anthony Aguirre will be the judge of what counts as an equivalent breakthrough.)\n___\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758059917.883369, "end_time": 1758326665.313678, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758059917.883369, "end_time": 1758326665.313678, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.2613744779486643 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.320834455756248, 2.133168865464314, 0.1045235772690511, 0.014010486522538886, 1.6278089891621548, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.01831563888873418, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.9878367433301488, 0.41172210094021633, 0.0, 0.5407300041287509, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3700634021794541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029930314939896903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289255.915329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289255.915329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8760757584652386, 0.12392424153476148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_gravity):\n> Quantum gravity is a field of theoretical physics that seeks to describe gravity according to the principles of quantum mechanics. It deals with environments in which neither gravitational nor quantum effects can be ignored, such as in the vicinity of black holes or similar compact astrophysical objects, such as neutron stars, as well as in the early stages of the universe moments after the Big Bang.\n> \n> Three of the four fundamental forces of nature are described within the framework of quantum mechanics and quantum field theory: the electromagnetic interaction, the strong force, and the weak force; this leaves gravity as the only interaction that has not been fully accommodated. The current understanding of gravity is based on Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which incorporates his theory of special relativity and deeply modifies the understanding of concepts like time and space. Although general relativity is highly regarded for its elegance and accuracy, it has limitations: the gravitational singularities inside black holes, the ad hoc postulation of dark matter, as well as dark energy and its relation to the cosmological constant are among the current unsolved mysteries regarding gravity, all of which signal the collapse of the general theory of relativity at different scales and highlight the need for a gravitational theory that goes into the quantum realm. At distances close to the Planck length, like those near the center of the black hole, quantum fluctuations of spacetime are expected to play an important role. Finally, the discrepancies between the predicted value for the vacuum energy and the observed values (which, depending on considerations, can be of 60 or 120 orders of magnitude) highlight the necessity for a quantum theory of gravity.\n> \n> The field of quantum gravity is actively developing, and theorists are exploring a variety of approaches to the problem of quantum gravity, the most popular being M-theory and loop quantum gravity. All of these approaches aim to describe the quantum behavior of the gravitational field, which does not necessarily include unifying all fundamental interactions into a single mathematical framework. However, many approaches to quantum gravity, such as string theory, try to develop a framework that describes all fundamental forces. Such a theory is often referred to as a theory of everything. Some of the approaches, such as loop quantum gravity, make no such attempt; instead, they make an effort to quantize the gravitational field while it is kept separate from the other forces. Other lesser-known but no less important theories include Causal dynamical triangulation, Noncommutative geometry, and Twistor theory.\n> \n> One of the difficulties of formulating a quantum gravity theory is that direct observation of quantum gravitational effects is thought to only appear at length scales near the Planck scale, around 10−35 meters, a scale far smaller, and hence only accessible with far higher energies, than those currently available in high energy particle accelerators. Therefore, physicists lack experimental data which could distinguish between the competing theories which have been proposed.<br/>\n> …\n> \n> In the early 21st century, new experiment designs and technologies have arisen which suggest that indirect approaches to testing quantum gravity may be feasible over the next few decades. This field of study is called phenomenological quantum gravity." }, { "id": 26360, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, World War III?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, World War III?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-world-war-iii", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:02:53.685404Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:21:52.692907Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26360, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:02:53.685404Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T17:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a “bargaining failure”). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [—Macé, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the “[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be “involved” if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people—civilians or military personnel—have been killed in the conflict.", "fine_print": "PPP will be determined from the following sources, in order of precedence:\n\n- IMF\n- World Bank\n- United Nations\n- CIA\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 26360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758248370.961769, "end_time": 1758350234.117437, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758248370.961769, "end_time": 1758350234.117437, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.14412206689567533 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0939230786447411, 1.0359621368168481, 1.954186929821148, 0.10602233004438777, 0.7156189758558824, 0.6422817393505171, 0.5879582834791942, 0.009856869823379553, 0.5661033183086659, 0.8629050061859964, 0.23678809690886865, 0.3589031494592382, 0.20926539955466936, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.29488452030568124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7353293866059569, 0.05037755693647347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42500489163223787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299458082921686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32919929430005174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2758521521053194 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289147.875806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289147.875806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9687960938123886, 0.031203906187611374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a “bargaining failure”). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [—Macé, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the “[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)" } ] }
