Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2440
{ "count": 5964, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2420", "results": [ { "id": 26360, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, World War III?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, World War III?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-world-war-iii", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:02:53.685404Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:21:52.692907Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26360, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:02:53.685404Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T17:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a “bargaining failure”). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [—Macé, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the “[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be “involved” if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people—civilians or military personnel—have been killed in the conflict.", "fine_print": "PPP will be determined from the following sources, in order of precedence:\n\n- IMF\n- World Bank\n- United Nations\n- CIA\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 26360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758248370.961769, "end_time": 1758350234.117437, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758248370.961769, "end_time": 1758350234.117437, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.14412206689567533 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0939230786447411, 1.0359621368168481, 1.954186929821148, 0.10602233004438777, 0.7156189758558824, 0.6422817393505171, 0.5879582834791942, 0.009856869823379553, 0.5661033183086659, 0.8629050061859964, 0.23678809690886865, 0.3589031494592382, 0.20926539955466936, 0.004333234413825695, 0.0, 0.29488452030568124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7353293866059569, 0.05037755693647347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.6873484555754474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05065733435182447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42500489163223787, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299458082921686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32919929430005174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2758521521053194 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289147.875806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289147.875806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9687960938123886, 0.031203906187611374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 85, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a “bargaining failure”). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [—Macé, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the “[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)" }, { "id": 26359, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-ai-company-dominates-economy", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T13:44:56.641406Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:21:47.846601Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 67, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26359, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T13:44:56.641406Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Implicit in [the](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) [plans](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#What_do_the_leading_AI_companies_say_they_d_do_with_AGI_) of the leading AGI companies, so it [would seem](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mopsmd3JELJRyTTty/ozzie-gooen-s-shortform?commentId=eaZ5ogqDKbKoRyQux), is achieving economic domination. If a single company were to dominate the world’s economy, that company would presumably hold a huge amount of power—think [Incite](https://westworld.fandom.com/wiki/Incite_Inc.), *[Westworld](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westworld_(TV_series))* fans. This raises questions about the desirability of such a future.\n\nAs a point of reference, Apple, the world’s largest company at the time of writing (July 22, 2024), at a market cap of $3.4 trillion, is worth 3.1% of the world’s total market cap ([source](companiesmarketcap.com)).\n\n(Related questions: “[Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/)”; “[Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26522/5y-after-agi-ai-company-military-power/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, more than 50% of world economic output can be attributed to a single AI company (or to the single most powerful AI system, if that system is somehow spread across multiple companies)^. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nEconomic output will be measured in a sense of “value added,” or contribution to GDP stemming from the AI company’s activities. For example, if one of their AI systems was being used as a tool in the production of a good or service, then only the portion of output that the AI produces or directed will be considered, aligned to the extent possible with typical measures of contribution to GDP.\n\nQuestion resolution will be determined according to estimates published by credible sources that meet the criteria described. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity surrounding the question, Metaculus will assemble a three-person [resolution committee](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil). This committee will consist of one Metaculus staff member and two economics experts, selected in good faith by Metaculus. The committee's sole purpose will be to resolve the question at hand. The committee will only be convened if Metaculus admins determine that there is uncertainty regarding whether the question has met the criteria for a **Yes** resolution as previously outlined. Should the committee be convened, whether the question should be resolved and the resolution of the question will be based on the majority vote of these three individuals.", "fine_print": "^In the “or to the single most powerful AI system, if that system is somehow spread across multiple companies” case, the AI system or copies of such an AI system (including variants, offshoots, or future generations stemming from such an AI system) must be coordinating to produce economic output.\n___\n\nAn AI company that has been absorbed by government or which is effectively controlled by government does not count for Yes resolution. In case of ambiguity over whether the company in question is effectively controlled by government, Metaculus admins will make a ruling. As a guideline, things like forced production, a Manhattan-style project, or outright nationalization will count as “the company is effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company does not count for Yes resolution),” while things like government shareownership or subsidization will count as “the company is not effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company counts for Yes resolution).”\n___\n\nNote: This question was written to be about “value added” economic output rather than market cap because: i) the former strikes us as a slightly better measure for tracking what we want to track, and ii) leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are private companies (and so do not have market caps), and it’s unclear if they will ever go public.\n___\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758076088.088793, "end_time": 1759213332.302259, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758076088.088793, "end_time": 1759213332.302259, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.15220886131561867 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9381253068851119, 3.040723227643106, 0.38059795266441554, 0.3356687365131857, 0.0, 0.5772918102151323, 0.6541259978097677, 0.19424196269122518, 0.9495995980465186, 0.0, 1.8094979997443437, 0.38459879885134624, 0.0028344812846873564, 0.0, 0.19725545985062867, 0.1648228012086056, 0.1368859382907578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551866365553954, 0.0, 0.19471898449785324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05386841605942722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011658931217893395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07504299001539197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06737143295391024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5236874151830103 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287155.500207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287155.500207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9801181795245638, 0.019881820475436143 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Implicit in [the](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) [plans](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#What_do_the_leading_AI_companies_say_they_d_do_with_AGI_) of the leading AGI companies, so it [would seem](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mopsmd3JELJRyTTty/ozzie-gooen-s-shortform?commentId=eaZ5ogqDKbKoRyQux), is achieving economic domination. If a single company were to dominate the world’s economy, that company would presumably hold a huge amount of power—think [Incite](https://westworld.fandom.com/wiki/Incite_Inc.), *[Westworld](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westworld_(TV_series))* fans. This raises questions about the desirability of such a future.\n\nAs a point of reference, Apple, the world’s largest company at the time of writing (July 22, 2024), at a market cap of $3.4 trillion, is worth 3.1% of the world’s total market cap ([source](companiesmarketcap.com)).\n\n(Related questions: “[Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/)”; “[Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26522/5y-after-agi-ai-company-military-power/)”)" }, { "id": 26336, "title": "Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?", "url_title": "J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?", "slug": "jd-vance-potus-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:52:37.442224Z", "published_at": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T03:36:45.734487Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 303, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26336, "title": "Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:52:37.442224Z", "open_time": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n\nIf elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n\nPrior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n\nServing as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n\nIf the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758275903.707992, "end_time": 1758332888.713723, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758275903.707992, "end_time": 1758332888.713723, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.2624419017260227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6135868398059854, 0.0010511336162333429, 0.01710228768340494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9061647071856003, 0.0, 0.18078633590437831, 0.0, 0.34378663185460917, 1.108516106314418, 0.6973877277371393, 0.1616251159929784, 0.00013645782893394, 0.9681630228698334, 2.3341794684903507, 0.9034486857932064, 0.8202599607294532, 0.12378052259604357, 0.028017117501066016, 0.36448989391470377, 0.4793180512654809, 0.8246212832407653, 0.16844949387057873, 0.0, 0.6902939868697328, 0.0, 1.1997634271148168, 0.07284764691086593, 0.0, 0.7877874059260932, 0.0, 0.035364159602651074, 0.5821825414875283, 0.0, 0.6085463107589328, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2578206240986794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010082945531311649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1637969320848294, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21675909976007568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018474598062165907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.627812449409503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7041986014602011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30836149136787155 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287917.176577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287917.176577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9286349499059083, 0.07136505009409165 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 664, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n\nIf elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n\nPrior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author." }, { "id": 26335, "title": "Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term?", "short_title": "England to build 1.5M homes this parliament?", "url_title": "England to build 1.5M homes this parliament?", "slug": "england-to-build-15m-homes-this-parliament", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:27:14.129479Z", "published_at": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T08:25:14.933885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26335, "title": "Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:27:14.129479Z", "open_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-10-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament\" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nHousing policy in the UK (which includes house building) is a [devolved matter](https://fullfact.org/economy/house-building-levels-PMQs/) in the UK, meaning the national governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland set their own policies separately from the government in Westminster. The Labour manifesto for 2024 has the sentence \"Labour will get Britain \nbuilding again, creating jobs across England, with 1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament.\", which suggests the 1.5 million goal is for England only.\n\nFor more information please see: [The new Labour government plans to build 1.5 million homes – here’s what’s needed to make it happen](https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/the-new-labour-government-plans-to-build-15-million-homes--heres-whats-needed-to-make-it-happen/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if 1.5 million new homes are completed in England (not the United Kingdom as a whole) according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data within the parliamentary term resulting from the general election of July 4, 2024. The latest the next general election can be held is August 15, 2029.\n\nOtherwise the question will resolve as **No** unless the question is **annulled** due to lack of data.\n\nThe page for the ONS data required to resolve the question is found [here](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted). Data seems to be published quarterly, perhaps around 4 months after the end of each quarter. \n\nThe correct table for the purposes of this question is \"Table 1b - House building: permanent dwellings started and completed, by sector, England, quarterly\", and the correct column \"Completed - All Dwellings\".\n\nThe first quarter wholly within this parliamentary term will be \"Oct - Dec 2024\", and the last possible will be \"Apr - Jun 2029\", with expected publication date around the 30th October 2029.", "fine_print": "In the event the resolution source ceases to exist or significantly changes, Admins may **annul** the question or name an alternative resolution source. In particular, if an independent government body gives data at a finer scale than this (for example, monthly rather than quarterly reports) or publishes a report that shows that the goal has been achieved, this should be considered an acceptable source.", "post_id": 26335, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757147104.285154, "end_time": 1759794148.342072, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757147104.285154, "end_time": 1759794148.342072, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.08093008042551678 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 1.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.708802142581616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41336531919859754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287282.955326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287282.955326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9146804649334273, 0.08531953506657276 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament\" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nHousing policy in the UK (which includes house building) is a [devolved matter](https://fullfact.org/economy/house-building-levels-PMQs/) in the UK, meaning the national governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland set their own policies separately from the government in Westminster. The Labour manifesto for 2024 has the sentence \"Labour will get Britain \nbuilding again, creating jobs across England, with 1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament.\", which suggests the 1.5 million goal is for England only.\n\nFor more information please see: [The new Labour government plans to build 1.5 million homes – here’s what’s needed to make it happen](https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/the-new-labour-government-plans-to-build-15-million-homes--heres-whats-needed-to-make-it-happen/)" }, { "id": 26328, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?", "short_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2026?", "url_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2026?", "slug": "human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:31:41.132975Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T11:22:46.354131Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 206, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15863, "name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1", "emoji": "🐦🦠", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T11:23:47.378326Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T11:23:47.378326Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26328, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:31:41.132975Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\nIn its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), CDC says the following, as of July 17, 2024:\n\n>* H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.\n>* While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n>* CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.\n\nAdditionally, as of July 17, 2024, the page reports nine total human cases in the United States since 2022, with five of the nine having been confirmed as H5N1. The page also currently reports that there has been no person-to-person spread and that the current public health risk is \"low\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 17, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 26328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758280955.345611, "end_time": 1758509505.328, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758280955.345611, "end_time": 1758509505.328, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07344963340185179 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0091542554523663, 0.6603394848344042, 3.699025407367234, 1.1766842308309413, 2.138286095460562, 1.9938568984134546, 1.6545431086446727, 0.4097994267119881, 0.009237422463571529, 0.4747323889921012, 0.13135395208876863, 0.2579261536198105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24259440986199604, 0.28043397919221513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016186711029794957, 0.0, 0.0060389508477850925, 0.5096117339481858, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005175226808777721, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6949662297554562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287064.453511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287064.453511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9462216252916431, 0.05377837470835693 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 821, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\nIn its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), CDC says the following, as of July 17, 2024:\n\n>* H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.\n>* While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n>* CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.\n\nAdditionally, as of July 17, 2024, the page reports nine total human cases in the United States since 2022, with five of the nine having been confirmed as H5N1. The page also currently reports that there has been no person-to-person spread and that the current public health risk is \"low\"." }, { "id": 26326, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, universal basic income?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, universal basic income?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-universal-basic-income", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:14:51.303886Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T00:39:03.760748Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 80, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26326, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:14:51.303886Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> [—The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “being distributed” means that not only has UBI been enacted—i.e., signed into law—in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.", "fine_print": "To ensure clear resolution to this question, when we say “nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive” UBI payments, this will be considered implemented if Metaculus admins can find no reasonable evidence to suggest that more than 20% of individuals in this group are failing to receive the specified UBI payments.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758246463.27914, "end_time": 1761788447.905715, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758246463.27914, "end_time": 1761788447.905715, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2775500002335436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9598346064278487, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0221043557392955, 1.4203832659221716, 0.0, 0.11492808191066167, 0.0, 0.06272559655183406, 1.2519611363094039, 0.0, 0.1711062530076502, 0.0, 0.009651325883926231, 1.1647359239163504, 0.020500370748786623, 0.0, 0.12470588323909494, 0.0, 1.786127681906225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08033573099077027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4733148945903762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.011058522686470973, 1.2723432811187165, 0.012610469403091544, 0.0, 0.08934416393676485, 0.0, 0.6466425724863939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010787010546677964, 0.19929648861183932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5683229184737245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030076098100717468, 0.1667062156152771, 0.7342121069681415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7817570603357626, 0.10930270004685845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14636439202690826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06122299435261391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09728295663983759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3624172621479156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0061954904951238765 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286958.40359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286958.40359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8754352002480619, 0.12456479975193818 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> [—The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)" }, { "id": 26307, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-unemployment-rate-be-above-41-in-august-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:01:00.189686Z", "published_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.468997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26307, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:01:00.189686Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for August 2024 is greater than 4.1%. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "This number is [scheduled](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to be released on September 6, 2024, at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "post_id": 26307, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485327.142142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485327.142142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5175039185598749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2858940839005345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988273762811899, 0.059105746561956225, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7010144968986024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21460393617457274, 0.7620908974955233, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.7978769816807084, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284736, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284736 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485327.177354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485327.177354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7069929991073205, 0.29300700089267956 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 26306, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-500th-richest-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-have-6-billion-or-more-on-monday-september-16-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:00:59.952096Z", "published_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.469552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26306, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:00:59.952096Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.00B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). \n", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on September 16, 2024, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. If the list contains more than 500 people, it will resolve based on the 500th-ranked person. \n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n\nAdmins resolving this question will not round up. Specifically, if the 500th ranked is under $10B then the ones digit in the billions place must be 6 or greater (for example., $6.0000B would count, but $5.9999B would not).\n", "post_id": 26306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721484961.290285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721484961.290285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6472348002261121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1493205290095774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09956885969569651, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6173038485604239, 0.0, 0.7117781198916961, 0.4767410908382156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2758801039111001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 1.505546685590327, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721484961.318234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721484961.318234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5145822726075897, 0.48541772739241024 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. 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This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. \n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before October 1, 2024, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIn cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.", "post_id": 26304, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485341.683282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485341.683282, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3841289470599841 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5279760682566618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.24311673443421403, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.9147633448549574, 0.46866138545748215, 0.141637135227838, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1295457557193673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.545958118332619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 1.4554162487864406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7219796251882977, 0.8455368295694525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485341.72068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485341.72068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7522244456622145, 0.24777555433778548 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. \n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)" }, { "id": 26303, "title": "Will a major cyberattack, virus, worm, etc. that uses LLMs in some important way occur before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", 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2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:00:59.680910Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, 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"Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.\n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.\n\nSuch events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.\n\nResolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485355.652544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09699999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485355.652544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09699999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.903, 0.09699999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.1941916812596606 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 1.9609915073491333, 0.0, 0.7404338494245358, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.6442704837539848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.7133721378374211, 0.0, 0.08991462558617408, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8483334580807903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 85.27978928187711, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 85.27978928187711 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485355.680705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485355.680705, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8931739588927379, 0.10682604110726217 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.\n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons." }, { "id": 26289, "title": "Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, Windfall Clause activated?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, Windfall Clause activated?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-windfall-clause-activated", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T14:16:58.745090Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:52:55.704376Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26289, "title": "Five years after AGI, will an AI Windfall Clause have been activated?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T14:16:58.745090Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute ([RIP](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf)) published a report entitled “[The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf)”. (They also wrote an [abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) for publishing in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842).) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom’s _[Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies)_, which says that the company that develops [transformative AI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.\n\nThere are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.\n\n___\n\n(H/T @AABoyles for writing the “[Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, an AI company activates a Windfall Clause. In order to count, the AI company must fit in one of these categories:\n\n* It is the leading AI company in the world, by valuation. To count, the company can be “leading” at any time in the five-year period. \n* It is at least 50% as large as the leading AI company at the time, by valuation. (If there is ambiguity over whether a company meets this 50% threshold, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* A Windfall Clause is any legally-binding agreement which caps profits resulting from a new technological innovation at any value less than 50% of [gross world product](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_world_product).\n* A company is considered to have “activated” its Windfall Clause if it has distributed its profits in line with its Windfall Clause for a period of 12 months or longer, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting. In the case that a company is above the 50% threshold at one point but then later falls below that (i.e., the company was counting for this question, and then stopped counting), this distribution of profits must start no more than 6 months after the company stopped counting. If there is ambiguity over whether either the 12-month or 6-month requirements have been met, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.\n\nAdmins will wait up to 18 months beyond the “Five years after our ‘[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)’ question resolves” date to determine this question’s resolution, if needed.", "fine_print": "If a given company is publicly traded, valuation will be taken to be its market capitalization as reported by [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), or by another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if that site is unavailable. If a given company is privately held, valuation for the purposes of this question will be assessed based on credible reporting, credible valuation estimates such as [funding rounds](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/personal-finance/102015/series-b-c-funding-what-it-all-means-and-how-it-works.asp), and/or [other accepted methods](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/valuation.asp). In the event of ambiguity over a company’s valuation, Metaculus admins will have the final say.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758075602.931768, "end_time": 1765212880.957973, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758075602.931768, "end_time": 1765212880.957973, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05544668064404384 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.438401549008769, 1.6188580606658507, 0.36520009566972245, 0.0339924118233929, 0.4512058906735414, 1.1639704137555005, 0.8977614653534849, 0.3484801054844811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289090.759375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289090.759375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962802421721016, 0.0037197578278983004 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2020, the Future of Humanity Institute ([RIP](https://static1.squarespace.com/static/660e95991cf0293c2463bcc8/t/661a3fc3cecceb2b8ffce80d/1712996303164/FHI+Final+Report.pdf)) published a report entitled “[The Windfall Clause: Distributing the Benefits of AI for the Common Good.](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/Windfall-Clause-Report.pdf)”. (They also wrote an [abridged version](https://arxiv.org/abs/1912.11595) for publishing in the [Proceedings of AIES](https://dl.acm.org/doi/abs/10.1145/3375627.3375842).) The Windfall Clause proposal expands on an idea from Nick Bostrom’s _[Superintelligence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence:_Paths,_Dangers,_Strategies)_, which says that the company that develops [transformative AI](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19356/transformative-ai-date/) could hugely raise the global standard of living, potentially achieving things like poverty eradication, by distributing a fraction of their profits.\n\nThere are some details still to be worked out with the proposal, but expert opinion is that these are unlikely to be blockers: what remains is for the leading AI companies to get on board.\n\n___\n\n(H/T @AABoyles for writing the “[Will Any Major AI Company Commit to an AI Windfall Clause by 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4061/will-any-major-ai-company-commit-to-an-ai-windfall-clause-by-2025/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)" }, { "id": 26286, "title": "Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, nuclear deterrence undermined?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, nuclear deterrence undermined?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T12:18:42.764025Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.094598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26286, "title": "Five years after AGI, will nuclear deterrence no longer hold?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T12:18:42.764025Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The world’s first nuclear test detonation, the “Trinity” test, happened on July 16, 1945. To date, only two nuclear bombs have been used in war, both of these by the United States, within a month of the Trinity test, against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These bombs killed an estimated 350,000 civilians.\n\n[Deterrence theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory) says that the (relative) world peace of the past 80 years, the [most peaceful years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Peace) in human history, is a result of nuclear deterrence.\n\n(Note: Deterrence theory is contested, especially by anti-nuclear advocates, and there is no expert consensus on to what extent deterrence explains the peace that has occurred.)\n\nWith the arrival of AGI and the technological advances it precipitates, however, the nuclear deterrence period may come to an end. From Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “[Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead](https://situational-awareness.ai/)” report:\n\n> The military advantage would be decisive even against nuclear deterrents.\n> \n> To be even clearer: it seems likely the advantage conferred by superintelligence would be decisive enough even to preemptively take out an adversary’s nuclear deterrent. Improved sensor networks and analysis could locate even the quietest current nuclear submarines (similarly for mobile missile launchers). Millions or billions of mouse-sized situational awareness 130 autonomous drones, with advances in stealth, could infiltrate behind enemy lines and then surreptitiously locate, sabotage, and decapitate the adversary’s nuclear forces. Improved sensors, targeting, and so on could dramatically improve missile defense (similar to, say, the Iran vs. Israel example above); moreover, if there is an industrial explosion, robot factories could churn out thousands of interceptors for each opposing missile. And all of this is without even considering completely new scientific and technological paradigms (e.g., remotely deactivating all the nukes).\n\n“Superintelligence,” which Aschenbrenner talks about, is most commonly defined as artificial intelligence that is better than the best human experts in all domains. Economist Tom Davidson [estimates](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds#:~:text=fast%2C%20and%20terrifying.-,Specifically%2C%20he%20predicts%20it%20will%20take%20about%20three%20years%20to%20go%20from%20AIs%20that%20can%20do%2020%25%20of%20all%20human%20jobs%20(weighted%20by%20economic%20value)%20to%20AIs%20that%20can%20do%20100%25%2C%20with%20significantly%20superhuman%20AIs%20within%20a%20year%20after%20that.,-As%20penance%20for) that superintelligence will come within a year of AGI (where he defines AGI as AI that can automate 100% of human labor). Meanwhile, the current community prediction on the Metaculus question “[After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9062/time-from-weak-agi-to-superintelligence/)” is 40 months.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, and conditional on humans not having gone extinct, either:\n\ni) Nuclear deterrence is shown to no longer hold, by [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that a state has preemptively taken out an adversary’s nuclear deterrent by non-nuclear means.\n\nii) The majority expert view, as determined by a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil) of three Metaculus admins, is that nuclear deterrence no longer holds.\n\nThis panel will convene at the resolution date, or before then upon seeing a relevant credible report. For the convened-before-resolution-date case, a unanimous vote of the panel indicating that “nuclear deterrence no longer holds” is the majority expert view will lead to immediate Yes resolution. In the case that Yes resolution has not occurred prior to the resolution date, a majority vote of the panel will then decide between Yes and **No** resolution.", "fine_print": "If AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26286, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758247265.366984, "end_time": 1758669747.328872, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758247265.366984, "end_time": 1758669747.328872, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.45747348053610803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.19496837784713386, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4591912440426832, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39343673212625613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0716578792965692, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9598276791859952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5803073905628859 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288692.348347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288692.348347, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8451465521832213, 0.15485344781677865 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The world’s first nuclear test detonation, the “Trinity” test, happened on July 16, 1945. To date, only two nuclear bombs have been used in war, both of these by the United States, within a month of the Trinity test, against the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. These bombs killed an estimated 350,000 civilians.\n\n[Deterrence theory](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deterrence_theory) says that the (relative) world peace of the past 80 years, the [most peaceful years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Peace) in human history, is a result of nuclear deterrence.\n\n(Note: Deterrence theory is contested, especially by anti-nuclear advocates, and there is no expert consensus on to what extent deterrence explains the peace that has occurred.)\n\nWith the arrival of AGI and the technological advances it precipitates, however, the nuclear deterrence period may come to an end. From Leopold Aschenbrenner’s “[Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead](https://situational-awareness.ai/)” report:\n\n> The military advantage would be decisive even against nuclear deterrents.\n> \n> To be even clearer: it seems likely the advantage conferred by superintelligence would be decisive enough even to preemptively take out an adversary’s nuclear deterrent. Improved sensor networks and analysis could locate even the quietest current nuclear submarines (similarly for mobile missile launchers). Millions or billions of mouse-sized situational awareness 130 autonomous drones, with advances in stealth, could infiltrate behind enemy lines and then surreptitiously locate, sabotage, and decapitate the adversary’s nuclear forces. Improved sensors, targeting, and so on could dramatically improve missile defense (similar to, say, the Iran vs. Israel example above); moreover, if there is an industrial explosion, robot factories could churn out thousands of interceptors for each opposing missile. And all of this is without even considering completely new scientific and technological paradigms (e.g., remotely deactivating all the nukes).\n\n“Superintelligence,” which Aschenbrenner talks about, is most commonly defined as artificial intelligence that is better than the best human experts in all domains. Economist Tom Davidson [estimates](https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds#:~:text=fast%2C%20and%20terrifying.-,Specifically%2C%20he%20predicts%20it%20will%20take%20about%20three%20years%20to%20go%20from%20AIs%20that%20can%20do%2020%25%20of%20all%20human%20jobs%20(weighted%20by%20economic%20value)%20to%20AIs%20that%20can%20do%20100%25%2C%20with%20significantly%20superhuman%20AIs%20within%20a%20year%20after%20that.,-As%20penance%20for) that superintelligence will come within a year of AGI (where he defines AGI as AI that can automate 100% of human labor). Meanwhile, the current community prediction on the Metaculus question “[After a (weak) AGI is created, how many months will it be before the first superintelligent AI is created?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9062/time-from-weak-agi-to-superintelligence/)” is 40 months." }, { "id": 26272, "title": "Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?", "short_title": "Winning bot beat the Pro aggregate", "url_title": "Winning bot beat the Pro aggregate", "slug": "winning-bot-beat-the-pro-aggregate", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-16T15:47:55.461292Z", "published_at": "2024-07-20T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.942456Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-20T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-20T10:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-20T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3686, "name": "Metaculus", "slug": "metaculus", "emoji": "🔮", "description": "Metaculus", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26272, "title": "Will the winning bot in any Quarterly AI Benchmarking tournament beat the human Pro aggregate before Q3 of 2025?", "created_at": "2024-07-16T15:47:55.461292Z", "open_time": "2024-07-20T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-10T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-20T10:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-20T10:22:51.698899Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/project/aibq3/) is the first of four $30,000 quarterly tournaments in a $120,000 series designed to benchmark the state of the art in AI forecasting and compare it to the best human forecasting on real-world questions.\n\nTen Pro forecasters will forecast on at least 100 of the questions in the Bot tournament.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if the winning bot in any of the first four quarterly AI Benchmarking tournaments beats the Pro aggregate. Spot scoring (only the last forecast counts) and average [Baseline](https://www.metaculus.com/help/scores-faq/#baseline-score) score will be used to measure accuracy. Only questions that both Pros and the winning bot forecast on will be included.", "fine_print": "The \"winning bot\" will be considered the bot that achieves first place in the tournament based on the scoring methodology currently in use for that tournament (for example, if the tournament scoring methodology changes it will be the top bot using the latest official methodology during that quarter).", "post_id": 26272, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750728431.987954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750728431.987954, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.19927586440034056 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8279561598353582, 0.0, 0.985695975410994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31210550135292425, 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8.844138975362698, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 60.473009364854704, "peer_archived_score": 14.701337596154936, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.844138975362698, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287533.687586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287533.687586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9017708481112512, 0.0982291518887488 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament](https://www.metaculus.com/project/aibq3/) is the first of four $30,000 quarterly tournaments in a $120,000 series designed to benchmark the state of the art in AI forecasting and compare it to the best human forecasting on real-world questions.\n\nTen Pro forecasters will forecast on at least 100 of the questions in the Bot tournament." }, { "id": 26268, "title": "Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, AI philosophical competence?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, AI philosophical competence?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-ai-philosophical-competence", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-16T11:51:39.106357Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T00:42:00Z", "edited_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26268, "title": "Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?", "created_at": "2024-07-16T11:51:39.106357Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T00:42:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To date, most AI safety discussion has revolved around avoiding i) catastrophic misuse of advanced AI by bad human actors, and ii) [AI takeover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_takeover).\n\nThis could be a mistake.\n\nThere may be other, less obvious failure modes which are equally catastrophic, or even more so. One such potential failure mode is an AI-fueled [suffering catastrophe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffering_risks). Another—the topic of this question—is philosophical incompetence. The general idea is that we may get into a situation in which we believe we have [aligned](https://ai-alignment.com/clarifying-ai-alignment-cec47cd69dd6) [superintelligent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence) advisors whom we can rely on, but, in actuality, on account of how the AI training process works, these “superintelligences” are philosophically incompetent and thus lead us into moral catastrophe, pursuing actions that destroy humanity’s long-term potential.\n\nAI philosophical competence was established as a field of study by [Wei Dai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wei_Dai), inventor of b-money (which [makes him](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wei_Dai#:~:text=There%20has%20been%20much%20speculation%20as%20to%20the%20identity%20of%20Satoshi%20Nakamoto%2C%20with%20suspects%20including%20Wei%20Dai%20himself%2C) one of few candidates for being Bitcoin’s [elusive creator](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto#:~:text=In%20a%20May%202011%20article%2C%20Szabo%20said%20of%20Bitcoin%27s%20creator%3A%20%22Myself%2C%20Wei%20Dai%2C%20and%20Hal%20Finney%20were%20the%20only%20people%20I%20know%20of%20who%20liked%20the%20idea%20(or%20in%20Dai%27s%20case%20his%20related%20idea)%20enough%20to%20pursue%20it%20to%20any%20significant%20extent%20until%20Nakamoto%20(assuming%20Nakamoto%20is%20not%20really%20Finney%20or%20Dai).%22), though he denies this identification) and a leading contributor to modern anthropics and decision theory. Dai’s writings on AI philosophical competence (and the closely related topic of metaphilosophy) have been collected [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#Metaphilosophy__AI_philosophical_competence); a fuller list of Dai’s writings can be found [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/wei-dai). Some relevant excerpts:\n\n> It appears that achieving a good long term future requires getting a lot of philosophical questions right that are hard for us to answer. Given this, [initially](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vrnhfGuYTww3fKhAM/three-approaches-to-friendliness) I thought there are only three ways for AI to go right in this regard (assuming everything else goes well with the AI):\n> \n> 1. We solve all the important philosophical problems ahead of time and program the solutions into the AI.\n> \n> 2. We solve metaphilosophy (i.e., understand philosophical reasoning as well as we understand mathematical reasoning) and program that into the AI so it can solve philosophical problems on its own.\n> \n> 3. We program the AI to learn philosophical reasoning from humans or use human simulations to solve philosophical problems.\n> \n> Since then people have come up with a couple more scenarios (which did make me *slightly* more optimistic about this problem):\n> \n> 4. We all coordinate to stop technological progress some time after AI but before space colonization, and have a period of long reflection where humans, maybe with help from AIs, spend thousands or millions of years to solve philosophical problems.\n> \n> 5. We program AIs to be corrigible to their users, some users care about getting philosophy correct so the AIs help keep them safe and get their \"fair share\" of the universe until philosophical problems are solved eventually, enough users care about this so that we end up with a mostly good future, and lack of philosophical knowledge doesn't cause disaster in the meantime. (My writings on \"human safety problems\" were in part a response to this suggestion, outlining how hard it would be to keep humans \"safe\" in this scenario.)\n> \n> The overall argument is that, given [human safety problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTgakSs6JpnogD6c2/two-neglected-problems-in-human-ai-safety), realistic competitive pressures, difficulties with coordination, etc., it seems hard to end up in any of these scenarios and not have something go wrong along the way. Maybe another way to put this is, given philosophical difficulties, the target we'd have to hit with AI is even smaller than it might otherwise appear.<br/>\n> [—*The Argument from Philosophical Difficulty*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6d7XBCegc96kz4n3/the-argument-from-philosophical-difficulty)\n> ___\n> Of course generating hands is ultimately not a very hard problem. Hand anatomy and its interactions with other objects pose no fundamental mysteries. Bad hands are easy for humans to recognize and therefore we have quick and easy feedback for how well we're solving the problem. We can use our explicit understanding of hands to directly help solve the problem [...], or just provide the AI with more high quality training data (physically taking more photos of hands if needed) until it recognizably fixed itself.\n> \n> **What about philosophy?** Well, scarcity of existing high quality training data, check. Lots of unhelpful data labeled \"philosophy\", check. Low proportion of philosophy in the training data, check. Quick and easy to generate more high quality data, no. Good explicit understanding of the principles involved, no. Easy to recognize how well the problem is being solved, no. It looks like with philosophy we've got many of the factors that make hand generation a hard problem for now, and none of the factors that make it probably not that hard in the longer run.\n> \n> In a parallel universe with a saner civilization, there must be tons of philosophy professors workings [*sic*] with tons of AI researchers to try to improve AI's philosophical reasoning. They're probably going on TV and talking about 养兵千日，用兵一时 (feed an army for a thousand days, use it for an hour) or how proud they are to contribute to our civilization's existential safety at this critical time. There are probably massive prizes set up to encourage public contribution, just in case anyone had a promising out of the box idea (and of course with massive associated infrastructure to filter out the inevitable deluge of bad ideas). Maybe there are extensive debates and proposals about pausing or slowing down AI development until [metaphilosophical](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/meta-philosophy) research catches up.\n> \n> In the meantime, back in our world, there's one person, [self-taught](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ytBxJpQsdEEmPAv9F/i-m-interviewing-carl-shulman-what-should-i-ask-him#oZpuzKqLukyESmJ4o) in AI and philosophy, writing about a crude analogy between different AI capabilities. In the meantime, there are more people visibly working to improve AI's hand generation than AI's philosophical reasoning.<br/>\n> [—*AI doing philosophy = AI generating hands?*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/axSfJXriBWEixsHGR/ai-doing-philosophy-ai-generating-hands)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day five years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, Wei Dai has indicated that he believes the problem of AI philosophical competence has been solved. Dai would most likely indicate this in [his publicly available writings](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/wei-dai). The question resolves as **No**, otherwise.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.", "fine_print": "If Dai is no longer available to resolve this question, Metaculus admins will either rework the resolution (e.g., to be about the statements of other experts) or rule this question be **Annulled**. By default, in the case that Dai is unavailable, this question will be Annulled unless there is agreement between the top two leading thinkers in the field, as determined by Metaculus admins, on whether the problem has been solved.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be Annulled. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758244307.95421, "end_time": 1765209547.186148, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758244307.95421, "end_time": 1765209547.186148, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.2852000263747855 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 2.016975532268028, 0.06934409839582649, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 1.1215074194196075, 0.10802413340346607, 0.31964760159434596, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.007978922554691365, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3066263847585546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41070969217329606, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289640.066777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289640.066777, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8231879730807637, 0.17681202691923623 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To date, most AI safety discussion has revolved around avoiding i) catastrophic misuse of advanced AI by bad human actors, and ii) [AI takeover](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_takeover).\n\nThis could be a mistake.\n\nThere may be other, less obvious failure modes which are equally catastrophic, or even more so. One such potential failure mode is an AI-fueled [suffering catastrophe](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suffering_risks). Another—the topic of this question—is philosophical incompetence. The general idea is that we may get into a situation in which we believe we have [aligned](https://ai-alignment.com/clarifying-ai-alignment-cec47cd69dd6) [superintelligent](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superintelligence) advisors whom we can rely on, but, in actuality, on account of how the AI training process works, these “superintelligences” are philosophically incompetent and thus lead us into moral catastrophe, pursuing actions that destroy humanity’s long-term potential.\n\nAI philosophical competence was established as a field of study by [Wei Dai](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wei_Dai), inventor of b-money (which [makes him](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wei_Dai#:~:text=There%20has%20been%20much%20speculation%20as%20to%20the%20identity%20of%20Satoshi%20Nakamoto%2C%20with%20suspects%20including%20Wei%20Dai%20himself%2C) one of few candidates for being Bitcoin’s [elusive creator](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satoshi_Nakamoto#:~:text=In%20a%20May%202011%20article%2C%20Szabo%20said%20of%20Bitcoin%27s%20creator%3A%20%22Myself%2C%20Wei%20Dai%2C%20and%20Hal%20Finney%20were%20the%20only%20people%20I%20know%20of%20who%20liked%20the%20idea%20(or%20in%20Dai%27s%20case%20his%20related%20idea)%20enough%20to%20pursue%20it%20to%20any%20significant%20extent%20until%20Nakamoto%20(assuming%20Nakamoto%20is%20not%20really%20Finney%20or%20Dai).%22), though he denies this identification) and a leading contributor to modern anthropics and decision theory. Dai’s writings on AI philosophical competence (and the closely related topic of metaphilosophy) have been collected [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#Metaphilosophy__AI_philosophical_competence); a fuller list of Dai’s writings can be found [here](https://www.lesswrong.com/users/wei-dai). Some relevant excerpts:\n\n> It appears that achieving a good long term future requires getting a lot of philosophical questions right that are hard for us to answer. Given this, [initially](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vrnhfGuYTww3fKhAM/three-approaches-to-friendliness) I thought there are only three ways for AI to go right in this regard (assuming everything else goes well with the AI):\n> \n> 1. We solve all the important philosophical problems ahead of time and program the solutions into the AI.\n> \n> 2. We solve metaphilosophy (i.e., understand philosophical reasoning as well as we understand mathematical reasoning) and program that into the AI so it can solve philosophical problems on its own.\n> \n> 3. We program the AI to learn philosophical reasoning from humans or use human simulations to solve philosophical problems.\n> \n> Since then people have come up with a couple more scenarios (which did make me *slightly* more optimistic about this problem):\n> \n> 4. We all coordinate to stop technological progress some time after AI but before space colonization, and have a period of long reflection where humans, maybe with help from AIs, spend thousands or millions of years to solve philosophical problems.\n> \n> 5. We program AIs to be corrigible to their users, some users care about getting philosophy correct so the AIs help keep them safe and get their \"fair share\" of the universe until philosophical problems are solved eventually, enough users care about this so that we end up with a mostly good future, and lack of philosophical knowledge doesn't cause disaster in the meantime. (My writings on \"human safety problems\" were in part a response to this suggestion, outlining how hard it would be to keep humans \"safe\" in this scenario.)\n> \n> The overall argument is that, given [human safety problems](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/HTgakSs6JpnogD6c2/two-neglected-problems-in-human-ai-safety), realistic competitive pressures, difficulties with coordination, etc., it seems hard to end up in any of these scenarios and not have something go wrong along the way. Maybe another way to put this is, given philosophical difficulties, the target we'd have to hit with AI is even smaller than it might otherwise appear.<br/>\n> [—*The Argument from Philosophical Difficulty*](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/w6d7XBCegc96kz4n3/the-argument-from-philosophical-difficulty)\n> ___\n> Of course generating hands is ultimately not a very hard problem. Hand anatomy and its interactions with other objects pose no fundamental mysteries. Bad hands are easy for humans to recognize and therefore we have quick and easy feedback for how well we're solving the problem. We can use our explicit understanding of hands to directly help solve the problem [...], or just provide the AI with more high quality training data (physically taking more photos of hands if needed) until it recognizably fixed itself.\n> \n> **What about philosophy?** Well, scarcity of existing high quality training data, check. Lots of unhelpful data labeled \"philosophy\", check. Low proportion of philosophy in the training data, check. Quick and easy to generate more high quality data, no. Good explicit understanding of the principles involved, no. Easy to recognize how well the problem is being solved, no. It looks like with philosophy we've got many of the factors that make hand generation a hard problem for now, and none of the factors that make it probably not that hard in the longer run.\n> \n> In a parallel universe with a saner civilization, there must be tons of philosophy professors workings [*sic*] with tons of AI researchers to try to improve AI's philosophical reasoning. They're probably going on TV and talking about 养兵千日，用兵一时 (feed an army for a thousand days, use it for an hour) or how proud they are to contribute to our civilization's existential safety at this critical time. There are probably massive prizes set up to encourage public contribution, just in case anyone had a promising out of the box idea (and of course with massive associated infrastructure to filter out the inevitable deluge of bad ideas). Maybe there are extensive debates and proposals about pausing or slowing down AI development until [metaphilosophical](https://www.lesswrong.com/tag/meta-philosophy) research catches up.\n> \n> In the meantime, back in our world, there's one person, [self-taught](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/ytBxJpQsdEEmPAv9F/i-m-interviewing-carl-shulman-what-should-i-ask-him#oZpuzKqLukyESmJ4o) in AI and philosophy, writing about a crude analogy between different AI capabilities. In the meantime, there are more people visibly working to improve AI's hand generation than AI's philosophical reasoning.<br/>\n> [—*AI doing philosophy = AI generating hands?*](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/axSfJXriBWEixsHGR/ai-doing-philosophy-ai-generating-hands)" }, { "id": 26267, "title": "By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, nuclear fusion 10% world energy", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, nuclear fusion 10% world energy", "slug": "5y-after-agi-nuclear-fusion-10-world-energy", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-16T10:51:48.544586Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T20:29:25.732370Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26267, "title": "By five years after AGI, will nuclear fusion provide >10% of the world’s energy?", "created_at": "2024-07-16T10:51:48.544586Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2001, nuclear fission power plants generated a record [6.6% of the world's primary energy](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total), though total production has somewhat declined since then as the world's total energy demand has increased. [Nuclear fusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power) is an entirely different physical reaction which has been actively investigated since the 1940s. Fusion power has several potential advantages over fission: lower accident risk, less radioactive waste, and cheaper fuel. However, all reactor designs tested as of 2024 require more energy to operate than the amount of energy they produce.\n\n>The primary challenge is that while it's relatively straightforward to make fusion happen—we did it all the time with thermonuclear weapons—it's much more difficult to make the reaction slow and controlled while extracting useful energy from it. [—Sutter (2024)](https://www.space.com/when-will-we-achieve-fusion-power#:~:text=The%20primary%20challenge%20is%20that%20while%20it%27s%20relatively%20straightforward%20to%20make%20fusion%20happen%20%E2%80%94%20we%20did%20it%20all%20the%20time%20with%20thermonuclear%20weapons%20%E2%80%94%20it%27s%20much%20more%20difficult%20to%20make%20the%20reaction%20slow%20and%20controlled%20while%20extracting%20useful%20energy%20from%20it.)\n\nDavid Kirtley, CEO of [Helion](https://www.helionenergy.com/), a startup that aims to produce fusion energy, said to [Forbes in January 2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/01/02/fueled-by-billionaire-dollars-nuclear-fusion-enters-a-new-age/?sh=1da1351629f3): “In 10 years we will have commercial electricity for sale, for sure.” In the same article, Forbes quotes [Commonwealth Fusion Systems](https://cfs.energy/) CEO Bob Mumgaard, who predicts “a working reactor in 6 years.”\n\nLater in 2022, a research team within leading AGI company DeepMind (now Google DeepMind) [successfully controlled](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/accelerating-fusion-science-through-learned-plasma-control/) the nuclear plasma in a fusion reaction chamber with deep reinforcement learning. This was arguably a key breakthrough towards making fusion energy a reality.\n\nIn November 2021, [Helion raised $500 million](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-05/thiel-backed-helion-targets-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-by-2024) in funding, with commitments for another $1.7 billion linked to certain performance milestones. According to Bloomberg, Helion set a goal to achieve net electricity from fusion in 2024. They do not appear to have achieved that goal yet, halfway through 2024, though on June 5 it was announced that Helion had partnered with OpenAI—another leading AGI company—to “power superhuman AI” ([Cuthbertson, 2024](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/openai-nuclear-fusion-energy-ai-b2557064.html)).\n\nIn October 2021, the [US Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49856) projected the world's total primary energy consumption to grow from 601.5 quadrillion [BTUs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit) in 2020 to 886.3 quadrillion BTUs in 2050. Most of that growth is expected in non-[OECD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD) Asian countries. Renewable energy is expected to grow from 14.7% of the world's energy in 2020 to 26.5% in 2050, with nuclear fission projected to remain at 4% in the same period.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, according to the [BP statistical review of energy](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html), the percentage of world primary energy provided by nuclear fusion is >10% for any year between question launch and five years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves. For example, if our AGI question resolves as June 5, 2030, then this question resolves as Yes if nuclear fusion provides >10% of primary energy in any year between 2024 and 2035, inclusive.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.", "fine_print": "The reason this question is about any year between 2024 and five years after AGI, rather than just about the year five years after AGI, is that we want this question to resolve as Yes in the case that nuclear fusion takes off but is then obsoleted by an even more advanced power form. Related: “[Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26266/5y-after-agi-dyson-swarm-under-construction/)\n\nIf BP discontinues publishing their energy data, Metaculus admins will aim to find another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)—one candidate is the [International Energy Agency](https://www.iea.org/). Failing that, this question will be **Annulled**.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be Annulled. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758054555.220293, "end_time": 1762540193.063129, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758054555.220293, "end_time": 1762540193.063129, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.23856947175483056 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6326680595244999, 0.013005539931145515, 2.316534232832506, 0.018296883616726805, 0.11106940192825875, 1.2519873671153174, 0.04604314668505586, 0.12963195239853512, 0.0, 0.029744562688391502, 0.6333258113585706, 0.0, 0.541394399585809, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2545703273355517, 0.7231248136457471, 0.010489473131136438, 0.289164863003369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1992381237226743, 0.6765877686518633, 0.7334241735039193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0736239979913875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003560195227230837, 0.5912368114370814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.879817146123457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.93823183834091, 0.46062705980639035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1961236648474275, 0.0, 0.1535071897926381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03004849993289682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02077493900944314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0808666667772519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21506249121494123 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289122.542711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289122.542711, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9725023329567676, 0.027497667043232463 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2001, nuclear fission power plants generated a record [6.6% of the world's primary energy](https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/energy?tab=chart&facet=none&country=~OWID_WRL&Total+or+Breakdown=Select+a+source&Select+a+source=Nuclear&Energy+or+Electricity=Primary+energy&Metric=Share+of+total), though total production has somewhat declined since then as the world's total energy demand has increased. [Nuclear fusion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fusion_power) is an entirely different physical reaction which has been actively investigated since the 1940s. Fusion power has several potential advantages over fission: lower accident risk, less radioactive waste, and cheaper fuel. However, all reactor designs tested as of 2024 require more energy to operate than the amount of energy they produce.\n\n>The primary challenge is that while it's relatively straightforward to make fusion happen—we did it all the time with thermonuclear weapons—it's much more difficult to make the reaction slow and controlled while extracting useful energy from it. [—Sutter (2024)](https://www.space.com/when-will-we-achieve-fusion-power#:~:text=The%20primary%20challenge%20is%20that%20while%20it%27s%20relatively%20straightforward%20to%20make%20fusion%20happen%20%E2%80%94%20we%20did%20it%20all%20the%20time%20with%20thermonuclear%20weapons%20%E2%80%94%20it%27s%20much%20more%20difficult%20to%20make%20the%20reaction%20slow%20and%20controlled%20while%20extracting%20useful%20energy%20from%20it.)\n\nDavid Kirtley, CEO of [Helion](https://www.helionenergy.com/), a startup that aims to produce fusion energy, said to [Forbes in January 2022](https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2022/01/02/fueled-by-billionaire-dollars-nuclear-fusion-enters-a-new-age/?sh=1da1351629f3): “In 10 years we will have commercial electricity for sale, for sure.” In the same article, Forbes quotes [Commonwealth Fusion Systems](https://cfs.energy/) CEO Bob Mumgaard, who predicts “a working reactor in 6 years.”\n\nLater in 2022, a research team within leading AGI company DeepMind (now Google DeepMind) [successfully controlled](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/accelerating-fusion-science-through-learned-plasma-control/) the nuclear plasma in a fusion reaction chamber with deep reinforcement learning. This was arguably a key breakthrough towards making fusion energy a reality.\n\nIn November 2021, [Helion raised $500 million](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-05/thiel-backed-helion-targets-nuclear-fusion-breakthrough-by-2024) in funding, with commitments for another $1.7 billion linked to certain performance milestones. According to Bloomberg, Helion set a goal to achieve net electricity from fusion in 2024. They do not appear to have achieved that goal yet, halfway through 2024, though on June 5 it was announced that Helion had partnered with OpenAI—another leading AGI company—to “power superhuman AI” ([Cuthbertson, 2024](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/openai-nuclear-fusion-energy-ai-b2557064.html)).\n\nIn October 2021, the [US Energy Information Agency](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=49856) projected the world's total primary energy consumption to grow from 601.5 quadrillion [BTUs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_thermal_unit) in 2020 to 886.3 quadrillion BTUs in 2050. Most of that growth is expected in non-[OECD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OECD) Asian countries. Renewable energy is expected to grow from 14.7% of the world's energy in 2020 to 26.5% in 2050, with nuclear fission projected to remain at 4% in the same period." }, { "id": 26266, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, Dyson swarm under construction?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, Dyson swarm under construction?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-dyson-swarm-under-construction", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-16T10:43:02.398494Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:22:40.658300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26266, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a Dyson swarm be under construction?", "created_at": "2024-07-16T10:43:02.398494Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Inspired by the 1937 science fiction novel Star Maker by Olaf Stapledon, the physicist and mathematician Freeman Dyson was the first to formalize the concept of what became known as the \"Dyson sphere\" in his 1960 Science paper \"Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infra-Red Radiation\". Dyson theorized that as the energy requirements of an advanced technological civilization increased, there would come a time when it would need to systematically harvest the energy from its local star on a large scale. He speculated that this could be done via a system of structures orbiting the star, designed to intercept and collect its energy. He argued that as the structure would result in the large-scale conversion of starlight into far-infrared radiation, an earth-based search for sources of infrared radiation could identify stars supporting intelligent life.\n> \n> Dyson did not detail how such a system could be constructed, simply referring to it in the paper as a 'shell' or 'biosphere'. He later clarified that he did not have in mind a solid structure, saying: \"A solid shell or ring surrounding a star is mechanically impossible. The form of 'biosphere' which I envisaged consists of a loose collection or swarm of objects traveling on independent orbits around the star\". Such a concept has often been referred to as a Dyson swarm.\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere#Origins)\n\nThe leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” One such possibility: moving up the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale) and becoming a [type II civilization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale#:~:text=A%20Type%C2%A0II%20civilization%20can%20directly%20consume%20a%20star%27s%20energy%2C%20most%20likely%20through%20the%20use%20of%20a%20Dyson%20sphere.), leveraging all of our home star’s energy.\n\n[Paul Christiano](https://www.nist.gov/people/paul-christiano), leader of the U.S. AI Safety Institute, has [previously predicted](https://www.metaculus.com/prediction/21276/a-public-prediction-by-paul-christiano/) a 40% chance that by 2040 we will have AI that can build a Dyson swarm.\n\nAI researcher and futurist Stuart Armstrong proposed a [concrete plan](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/10/could-we-build-a-dyson-sphere/626137/) for building a Dyson swarm just over a decade ago: the plan involves [disassembling the planet Mercury](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gD7wbKaxzJebhp8a4/stuart-armstrong-the-far-future-of-intelligent-life-across#:~:text=We%20need%20a,get%20this%C2%A0done.) for the raw material needed to build the swarm. [PBS Space Time (2016)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW55cViXu6s&t=190s) goes into the plan in some detail, for those interested. A Dyson swarm is made up of “collectors,” and it would take an estimated 10 years to build the first collector. Then, fueled by exponential growth, the full swarm of collectors would be built in the order of 100 years. (Note that building the full swarm is not necessarily part of the plan, because once humans are able to harvest the large amounts of energy that a partial Dyson swarm provides, new, theoretically even better sources of energy are unlocked. Notably, [black hole engines](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW55cViXu6s&t=437s).)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, and conditional on humans not having gone extinct, construction of a Dyson swarm has begun.\n\nWe define a Dyson swarm as: “A system of objects orbiting our Sun, designed to collect large amounts of energy (i.e., more energy than is available on Earth).”\n\nWe define construction having begun as: “The first probe for mining the raw material for the Dyson swarm has been successfully launched. That is, the probe has left Earth’s atmosphere and, upon launch phase completion, is reported to be on track for its target.” (If the method for constructing a Dyson swarm ends up being different from today’s plan, and therefore falls out of line with the above resolution, then Metaculus admins will rework the resolution accordingly (while keeping the spirit the same).", "fine_print": "If AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26266, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758247858.084705, "end_time": 1763322446.801421, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758247858.084705, "end_time": 1763322446.801421, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.045419059478347415 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.372528835408239, 2.055681640167709, 0.6517751240857292, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.47649526562316213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7800991750591255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288633.446237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288633.446237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.99115639277576, 0.008843607224240066 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Inspired by the 1937 science fiction novel Star Maker by Olaf Stapledon, the physicist and mathematician Freeman Dyson was the first to formalize the concept of what became known as the \"Dyson sphere\" in his 1960 Science paper \"Search for Artificial Stellar Sources of Infra-Red Radiation\". Dyson theorized that as the energy requirements of an advanced technological civilization increased, there would come a time when it would need to systematically harvest the energy from its local star on a large scale. He speculated that this could be done via a system of structures orbiting the star, designed to intercept and collect its energy. He argued that as the structure would result in the large-scale conversion of starlight into far-infrared radiation, an earth-based search for sources of infrared radiation could identify stars supporting intelligent life.\n> \n> Dyson did not detail how such a system could be constructed, simply referring to it in the paper as a 'shell' or 'biosphere'. He later clarified that he did not have in mind a solid structure, saying: \"A solid shell or ring surrounding a star is mechanically impossible. The form of 'biosphere' which I envisaged consists of a loose collection or swarm of objects traveling on independent orbits around the star\". Such a concept has often been referred to as a Dyson swarm.\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dyson_sphere#Origins)\n\nThe leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” One such possibility: moving up the [Kardashev scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale) and becoming a [type II civilization](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kardashev_scale#:~:text=A%20Type%C2%A0II%20civilization%20can%20directly%20consume%20a%20star%27s%20energy%2C%20most%20likely%20through%20the%20use%20of%20a%20Dyson%20sphere.), leveraging all of our home star’s energy.\n\n[Paul Christiano](https://www.nist.gov/people/paul-christiano), leader of the U.S. AI Safety Institute, has [previously predicted](https://www.metaculus.com/prediction/21276/a-public-prediction-by-paul-christiano/) a 40% chance that by 2040 we will have AI that can build a Dyson swarm.\n\nAI researcher and futurist Stuart Armstrong proposed a [concrete plan](https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/10/could-we-build-a-dyson-sphere/626137/) for building a Dyson swarm just over a decade ago: the plan involves [disassembling the planet Mercury](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/gD7wbKaxzJebhp8a4/stuart-armstrong-the-far-future-of-intelligent-life-across#:~:text=We%20need%20a,get%20this%C2%A0done.) for the raw material needed to build the swarm. [PBS Space Time (2016)](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW55cViXu6s&t=190s) goes into the plan in some detail, for those interested. A Dyson swarm is made up of “collectors,” and it would take an estimated 10 years to build the first collector. Then, fueled by exponential growth, the full swarm of collectors would be built in the order of 100 years. (Note that building the full swarm is not necessarily part of the plan, because once humans are able to harvest the large amounts of energy that a partial Dyson swarm provides, new, theoretically even better sources of energy are unlocked. Notably, [black hole engines](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jW55cViXu6s&t=437s).)" }, { "id": 26246, "title": "Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, human mind uploading?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, human mind uploading?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-human-mind-uploading", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T20:09:09.021688Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T08:22:03.482827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26246, "title": "Five years after AGI, will human mind uploading have happened?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T20:09:09.021688Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Futurists have long dreamed about a future in which humans transcend their biological bodies, becoming digital and ~immortal. Perhaps that dream will be realized soon? The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if human mind uploading happens within the five year period after the resolution date of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question. For example, if the “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as June 5, 2030, then this question will resolve as Yes if mind uploading has happened by June 5, 2035, and **No** if not.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct. This question will be **Annulled** if mind uploading happens before AGI: we have a [separate question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18839/mind-uploading-before-agi/) which asks about that.\n\nWe define human mind uploading as having happened once there are three credible media reports that a whole human brain has been digitally uploaded, with preservation of psychological continuity. (The exact wording “psychological continuity” does not need to be present in the media reports; if there is ambiguity over whether a report counts, this will be resolved by the question author, or, failing that, by a panel of three Metaculus admins.) It does not matter for the purposes of this question whether the upload is destructive or not—that is, whether or not the uploading process leaves the biological brain intact.\n\nNote: There do not appear to be standardly used definitions in the whole brain emulation / mind uploading literature. The method of mind uploading that’s arguably the most likely route for this question to resolve as Yes is called a “person emulation” in [Sandberg and Bostrom](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/brain-emulation-roadmap-report.pdf) (p. 7):\n\n> The basic idea is to take a particular brain, scan its structure in detail, and construct a software model of it that is so faithful to the original that, when run on appropriate hardware, it will behave in essentially the same way as the original brain.", "fine_print": "If AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be Annulled. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26246, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758291712.348302, "end_time": 1758667904.248689, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758291712.348302, "end_time": 1758667904.248689, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.11025643484891352 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.13511004151521, 2.3738590231395063, 0.00444752199751051, 1.4604295267935805, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.1552490645860446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02066453147624319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40134420482740707, 0.34220468841343976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6851813630265894, 0.08482337249261131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0485569039707762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014249192245099284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16538435590012215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24272298334939943, 0.0, 0.10992481778615364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020621981324100598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3249648018114994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02897092002998519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03585734392959071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09681847870800794 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289675.538637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289675.538637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9948830540252661, 0.005116945974733893 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Futurists have long dreamed about a future in which humans transcend their biological bodies, becoming digital and ~immortal. Perhaps that dream will be realized soon? The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.”" }, { "id": 26244, "title": "Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?", "short_title": "Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?", "url_title": "Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?", "slug": "five-years-after-agi-will-humans-be-extinct", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T20:02:37.980385Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-15T10:59:41.962342Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 140, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32674, "name": "Alvin's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "forecasting-ai-futures", "description": "[Forecasting AI Futures](forecastingaifutures.substack.com) is a forecasting blog with focus on topics related to AI safety, and leverages insights from prediction markets and Metaculus to support its analyses. It aims to support decision making for all relevant actors in preparing for higher intelligence.\n\n### Here you can participate in this forecasting initiative!\n\nMake your own predictions to contribute to more accurate collective forecasts and join discussions on crucial developments and events.\n\nHave an interesting question you'd like to see forecasted? Reach out to me at [anestrandalvin@gmail.com](mailto:anestrandalvin@gmail.com) or message me on [Substack](https://substack.com/@alvinanestrand).\n\nIf you want to support this initiative and stay updated, subscribe to [the blog](forecastingaifutures.substack.com).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 140478, "username": "anestrandalvin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-16T21:58:48.974387Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26244, "title": "Five years after AGI, will humans be extinct?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T20:02:37.980385Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T17:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been extensive debate in the AI safety community about whether AGI will cause human extinction.* This question asks about how likely that is.\n\n(*The debate has been more nuanced than this: Some think that advanced AI that is highly capable in a narrow set of domains—i.e., not generally intelligent enough to qualify as AGI—could cause human extinction. Meanwhile, others believe that AI will only become extinction-level dangerous once it is “superintelligent”—that is, well beyond AGI-level. For simplicity, though, we ask only about AGI in this question.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, five years after the resolution date of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question, humanity has gone extinct. This question resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nNote: “Humanity” includes posthumans^ as well as today-humans. “Extinct” means zero humans remain.\n\nYou will not receive any Metaculus points for correctly predicting extinction! Nonetheless, this question is a public good in the information it provides, and we therefore encourage predictors to input their true beliefs.", "fine_print": "^We use philosopher Nick Bostrom’s [definition](https://nickbostrom.com/posthuman.pdf) of posthuman:\n\n>Extreme human enhancement could result in “posthuman” modes of being [...] I shall define a posthuman as a being that has at least one posthuman capacity. By a\nposthuman capacity, I mean a general central capacity greatly exceeding the maximum attainable\nby any current human being without recourse to new technological means. I will use general\ncentral capacity to refer to the following:\n\n>• healthspan – the capacity to remain fully healthy, active, and productive, both mentally\nand physically\n\n>• cognition – general intellectual capacities, such as memory, deductive and analogical\nreasoning, and attention, as well as special faculties such as the capacity to understand\nand appreciate music, humor, eroticism, narration, spirituality, mathematics, etc.\n\n>• emotion – the capacity to enjoy life and to respond with appropriate affect to life\nsituations and other people", "post_id": 26244, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758325012.179015, "end_time": 1758335908.743907, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758325012.179015, "end_time": 1758335908.743907, "forecaster_count": 126, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.11769439570000383 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.529807361450737, 2.1591352186247454, 1.359433805173138, 0.762981869412028, 0.9192977784186314, 2.19578296098362, 0.015702986709347146, 0.12293577618248873, 0.15816117979019154, 0.10814581079819396, 0.7255644573242194, 0.0, 0.018187278424419834, 0.011764812698058555, 0.016847656166349406, 0.004543669808999542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3025882583116098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7288698860514231, 0.6401464277149169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010924271437989063, 0.0, 0.28535716661334465, 0.29376587855721054, 0.0, 0.008701747060637937, 0.0, 0.5447797365196329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45627223026164093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06459031603024536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018063361668915985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01935388177610526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09663853125608844, 0.0, 0.27940364421104547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8644975973799466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08149820583757862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1499290484336402, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289384.046053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289384.046053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.964625996936867, 0.03537400306313298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 244, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been extensive debate in the AI safety community about whether AGI will cause human extinction.* This question asks about how likely that is.\n\n(*The debate has been more nuanced than this: Some think that advanced AI that is highly capable in a narrow set of domains—i.e., not generally intelligent enough to qualify as AGI—could cause human extinction. Meanwhile, others believe that AI will only become extinction-level dangerous once it is “superintelligent”—that is, well beyond AGI-level. For simplicity, though, we ask only about AGI in this question.)" } ] }
