Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2440
{ "count": 6344, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2460", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2420", "results": [ { "id": 28338, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Israel to Invade Lebanon Before 2025?", "url_title": "Israel to Invade Lebanon Before 2025?", "slug": "israel-to-invade-lebanon-before-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T15:28:11.755497Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.226667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "comment_count": 35, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 108, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28338, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T15:28:11.755497Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T16:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-23T16:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-23T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T06:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.\n\n[On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. Hezbollah has vowed retribution against Israel, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18 that the country was \"opening a new phase in the war\" and and that the \"centre of gravity is shifting to the north through the diversion of resources and forces\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after September 19, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1, 2025.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28338, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728067889.957914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728067889.957914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9782099328038378 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0011473164167071434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042207412222504555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00075777975180793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004964380011391629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035552944344417064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019661527906424624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005792914588336932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.754091826509773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020544360039948728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007733503802370377, 0.0, 0.0017057729788106865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03640641335457906, 0.0, 0.34130802871041804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037945965240412326, 0.00417422322392255, 0.010851736499077945, 0.1996019219710155, 0.12342994047518482, 0.027628551020457432, 0.05804725917978172, 18.476730865450246 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.4798469270374532, "coverage": 0.11302890317777753, "baseline_score": 4.010348667819993, "spot_peer_score": 0.8828509052007533, "peer_archived_score": 1.4798469270374532, "baseline_archived_score": 4.010348667819993, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.8828509052007533 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727838009.410542, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727838009.410542, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01821231290893155, 0.9817876870910685 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 336, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.\n\n[On September 17](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cz04m913m49o), Israel detonated thousands of Hezbollah pagers, followed by more detonations of walkie-talkies the next day, killing tens of people and injuring thousands. Hezbollah has vowed retribution against Israel, while Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said on September 18 that the country was \"opening a new phase in the war\" and and that the \"centre of gravity is shifting to the north through the diversion of resources and forces\"." }, { "id": 28336, "title": "Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-prince-tom-iseghohi-win-the-september-21-2024-edo-state-gubernatorial-election-in-nigeria", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.298085Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.670485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28336, "title": "Will Prince Tom Iseghohi win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.298085Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T23:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Prince Tom Iseghohi is the Action Alliance's nominee for governor of Edo. The former Managing Director at Transnational Corp of Nigeria, Iseghohi [was acquitted](https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/09/18/court-acquits-tom-iseghohi-of-money-laundering-charges/) of money laundering charges in 2017. Nigeria's Vanguard News in [April 2024](https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/04/edo-iseghohi-wins-aa-guber-ticket/) named Iseghohi the frontrunner in the race, adding that \"is not only the fastest growing party in Nigeria but also the party to beat in the forthcoming September 21 governorship election in the state.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Prince Tom Iseghohi is the next governor of Edo State in Nigeria, based on the results of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election according to the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports on the election results. ", "fine_print": "Although Nigeria typically counts its votes within a few days, if there is no declared winner before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled. ", "post_id": 28336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842266.624816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842266.624816, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1467177151623199 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9548775398281637, 3.131232664878593, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0428085562004172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7968025438413555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842266.667501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842266.667501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9777577514743451, 0.02224224852565492 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Prince Tom Iseghohi is the Action Alliance's nominee for governor of Edo. The former Managing Director at Transnational Corp of Nigeria, Iseghohi [was acquitted](https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/09/18/court-acquits-tom-iseghohi-of-money-laundering-charges/) of money laundering charges in 2017. Nigeria's Vanguard News in [April 2024](https://www.vanguardngr.com/2024/04/edo-iseghohi-wins-aa-guber-ticket/) named Iseghohi the frontrunner in the race, adding that \"is not only the fastest growing party in Nigeria but also the party to beat in the forthcoming September 21 governorship election in the state.\"" }, { "id": 28335, "title": "Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-of-the-waltons-be-worth-100-billion-or-more-on-september-30-2024-according-to-forbes", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.101739Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.404724Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28335, "title": "Will any of the Waltons be worth $100 billion or more on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:02.101739Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) on September 30, 2024 Jim Walton & Family, Alice Walton, or Rob Walton & Family are worth greater than or equal to $100 billion. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). ", "post_id": 28335, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842274.921616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7033566124198649 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842274.921616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7033566124198649 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7423641833913854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7136986129802585, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9395738130237977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0411086077723675, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 1.0946684080916165, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.5589428929717781, 0.19087447827160808, 0.4649737572760317, 0.0, 0.5489490564483365, 0.0, 0.422729524609672 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842274.96808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842274.96808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.26206956548966887, 0.7379304345103311 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 28334, "title": "Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-deadly-attack-within-israel-causing-at-least-five-deaths-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:01.728878Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.881651Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28334, "title": "Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:40:01.728878Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)\n\nBy early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.\n\nWhilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:\n\n- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)\n- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)\n\nThe aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, \"tit-for-tat\" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.\n\nAmidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five (5) individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve to \"Yes\":\n\n- Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n- The threshold of five (5) fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period.\n\nThese fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 28334, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842280.270136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5529999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842280.270136, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5529999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.42310216975839077 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.580270491795313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27326944033139156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.9018571275613385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.41171267971638004, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 1.147312829327383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1877326448389872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4821252936095042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726842280.311974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726842280.311974, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7616891910228885, 0.2383108089771115 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)\n\nBy early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.\n\nWhilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:\n\n- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)\n- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)\n\nThe aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, \"tit-for-tat\" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.\n\nAmidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict." }, { "id": 28330, "title": "Will the household water chlorination rate be 65% or higher for households served in the first two years of Evidence Action's program in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh?", "short_title": "Chlorination rates ≥65% with ILC program?", "url_title": "Chlorination rates ≥65% with ILC program?", "slug": "chlorination-rates-65-with-ilc-program", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:11:28.132900Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:57.441052Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T16:00:00.383848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:16:57.441049Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:29:04.039295Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28330, "title": "Will the household water chlorination rate be 65% or higher for households served in the first two years of Evidence Action's program in Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T12:11:28.132900Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-04-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "GiveWell has provided a [pilot grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023) and a [scale-up grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/programs/safe-water-now) to provide technical assistance to the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh in setting up [in-line chlorination](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/06/26/research-strategy-water/) (ILC) devices to [chlorinate](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#We_think_ILC_devices) drinking water in rural populations, which GiveWell estimates is a highly cost-effective way to reduce the all-mortality rate among children under 5.\n\nA key measure of the success of the program is the chlorination rates in the target households of Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. For those served in the first two years of the 5-year program (September 2023 - September 2025), GiveWell expects that at least 65% of households will be using chlorinated water in September 2025. This is a measure of the proportion of households with positive free chlorine residual in household drinking water samples, which Evidence Action plans to collect as part of its routine monitoring. (It’s possible that GiveWell will fund an additional independent before-and-after impact evaluation to estimate the effect on chlorination rates.)\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts with 60% confidence that this 65% chlorination rate in households targeted in the first two years will be achieved. GiveWell estimates chlorination rates based on results from one study of ILC, [Pickering et al. 2019](https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30315-8), and a [pilot of ILC in Kenya](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12f_yMLVLoqWcEyxadn01sTCLEx5RC8jn_8NL0iiWjdI/edit#). Together these suggest chlorination rates of [around 67%](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1400349819#gid=1400349819&range=E31:H32). Its main point of uncertainty is that this is a relatively limited evidence base, and it has not yet seen much chlorination data from ILC being delivered at scale.\n\nSee also the GiveWell Blog: [A major initiative to scale up water chlorination in India](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/04/30/a-major-initiative-to-scale-up-water-chlorination-in-india/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the chlorination rate for households served in the first two years (September 2023 - September 2025) of Evidence Action's in-line chlorination program in the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh is 65% or higher, according to GiveWell’s assessment.\n\nThe household chlorination rate is defined as the proportion of households with positive free chlorine residual in household drinking water samples. This question asks about the total rate across both Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh households.\n\nIf the total household chlorination rate is lower than 65% this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "GiveWell expects impact evaluation data to be received on or around March 2026 covering the first two years of the program, September 2023 - September 2025. In case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until September 8, 2027, after which the question will be **annulled** if GiveWell determines there is insufficient evidence to support a Yes or No resolution.", "post_id": 28330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757215338.957, "end_time": 1763196689.937673, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.542 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757215338.957, "end_time": 1763196689.937673, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.542 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.5537744512955152 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6881920094509739, 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 1.0, 0.6604702157231703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "GiveWell has provided a [pilot grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023) and a [scale-up grant](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/programs/safe-water-now) to provide technical assistance to the Indian states of Madhya Pradesh and Andhra Pradesh in setting up [in-line chlorination](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/06/26/research-strategy-water/) (ILC) devices to [chlorinate](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#We_think_ILC_devices) drinking water in rural populations, which GiveWell estimates is a highly cost-effective way to reduce the all-mortality rate among children under 5.\n\nA key measure of the success of the program is the chlorination rates in the target households of Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh. For those served in the first two years of the 5-year program (September 2023 - September 2025), GiveWell expects that at least 65% of households will be using chlorinated water in September 2025. This is a measure of the proportion of households with positive free chlorine residual in household drinking water samples, which Evidence Action plans to collect as part of its routine monitoring. (It’s possible that GiveWell will fund an additional independent before-and-after impact evaluation to estimate the effect on chlorination rates.)\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell predicts with 60% confidence that this 65% chlorination rate in households targeted in the first two years will be achieved. GiveWell estimates chlorination rates based on results from one study of ILC, [Pickering et al. 2019](https://doi.org/10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30315-8), and a [pilot of ILC in Kenya](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12f_yMLVLoqWcEyxadn01sTCLEx5RC8jn_8NL0iiWjdI/edit#). Together these suggest chlorination rates of [around 67%](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1400349819#gid=1400349819&range=E31:H32). Its main point of uncertainty is that this is a relatively limited evidence base, and it has not yet seen much chlorination data from ILC being delivered at scale.\n\nSee also the GiveWell Blog: [A major initiative to scale up water chlorination in India](https://blog.givewell.org/2024/04/30/a-major-initiative-to-scale-up-water-chlorination-in-india/)" }, { "id": 28329, "title": "Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?", "short_title": "Gaza war end and two state solution by 2030?", "url_title": "Gaza war end and two state solution by 2030?", "slug": "gaza-war-end-and-two-state-solution-by-2030", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [ { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" }, { "id": 202409, "username": "EdwardStoppard" }, { "id": 161413, "username": "Emi" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-19T10:48:35.708773Z", "published_at": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-09T22:53:20.115690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 170, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T17:51:30.760515Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T17:51:30.760515Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28329, "title": "Will the Gaza war end and significant progress be made towards a two-state solution before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T10:48:35.708773Z", "open_time": "2024-09-21T15:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-22T15:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-22T15:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-Gaza-War-Lead-to-a-TwoState-Solution-to-the-IsraelPalestine-Conflict)\n\n***\n\nThe ongoing [Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), dating back to when the British ruled the region under the British Mandate for Palestine after World War I. In 1947, [the United Nations proposed a two-state solution, aiming to divide the land between Jews and Palestinians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution#:~:text=The%20two%2Dstate%20solution%20is,of%20the%20former%20Mandatory%20Palestine.\\&text=The%20first%20proposal%20for%20separate,Peel%20Commission%20report%20in%201937.). However, this plan was never fully realized. The creation of Israel in 1948 led to a [war with neighboring Arab states](https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Israeli-wars), after which Israel controlled significantly more territory than the original partition plan had allocated, leaving Palestinians without a recognized state.\nHamas, an Islamist militant group that seeks the destruction of Israel, gained control of the Gaza Strip [after winning elections in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election#:~:text=The%20Central%20Elections%20Commission%20released,narrowly%20ahead%20on%20the%20lists.). Supported by Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas has regularly clashed with Israel. [The most recent conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, taking hostages and sparking a fierce military response](https://www.britannica.com/event/Israel-Hamas-War#ref1320682). This renewed violence has intensified calls for a solution to the long-standing conflict.\nA two-state solution, which envisions independent Israeli and Palestinian states, has long been debated as a potential path to peace. However, the current hostilities raise questions about the feasibility of this outcome. While international pressure may push for a diplomatic resolution, Israel’s inability to swiftly [rescue hostages](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hostages-war-hamas-gaza-09-02-24-intl-hnk/index.html) and the [high civilian casualty rates](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/12/israel-civilian-deaths-and-the-question-of-proportionality) in Gaza could erode its global support, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace. The war may either reinforce the necessity of a two-state solution or push the conflict into an even more entrenched and violent cycle, with peace appearing more distant than ever.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the Gaza war ends AND at least one of the following criteria is fulfilled before January 1, 2030:\n\n* Israel officially ends its military occupation in the West Bank and Gaza with the withdrawal of Israeli forces and the transfer of administrative control to the Palestinian Authority or an internationally recognized Palestinian government.\n* Palestine is admitted as a full member state of the United Nations, with recognized sovereignty over defined territories.\n* Israel officially recognizes Palestine as an independent, sovereign nation.\n* All member states of either NATO or the EU recognize both Israel and Palestine as independent, sovereign nations.\n\nIf the Gaza War has not ended OR if none of the four criteria above have been met before January 1, 2030, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The end of the Gaza war is defined as a cessation of hostilities lasting a minimum of 60 consecutive days. This may be achieved through various means, including but not limited to: a peace treaty, a bilateral ceasefire, or the substantial degradation of Hamas's military capabilities resulting in a de facto end to the conflict.\n\nIf the state of Palestine is dissolved, this question will resolve as **No** even if a successor state takes its place.\n\nWest Bank and Gaza are defined based on the 1949 Armistice Agreement.", "post_id": 28329, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763114932.821721, "end_time": 1763191543.764194, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763114932.821721, "end_time": 1763191543.764194, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19778547480830944 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7827268013016224, 0.3393317000815842, 0.0034816323194887928, 0.3499737864348471, 1.1807067593022504, 1.6972272844376437, 0.005537830714382468, 0.8067850080274723, 0.1415002948414824, 0.7912793091199047, 3.0157518786211472, 0.7231310798540449, 0.0, 0.4274130675954733, 0.25154229098625835, 0.8397761986678933, 0.1529072034917331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8026601875124455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.0, 0.5499123981425624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.516720051368963, 0.4651035334098204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031301113244932864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07596432114486756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00047118769608376065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08934446028684764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2693389084925394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004778496854644452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5849577636717652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002443062932311581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05416656778952044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8435750187046716 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287261.607487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287261.607487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962243930534643, 0.003775606946535625 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 365, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will the Gaza War Lead to a Two-State Solution to the Israel-Palestine Conflict?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-the-Gaza-War-Lead-to-a-TwoState-Solution-to-the-IsraelPalestine-Conflict)\n\n***\n\nThe ongoing [Israel-Palestine conflict has deep historical roots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli%E2%80%93Palestinian_conflict), dating back to when the British ruled the region under the British Mandate for Palestine after World War I. In 1947, [the United Nations proposed a two-state solution, aiming to divide the land between Jews and Palestinians](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Two-state_solution#:~:text=The%20two%2Dstate%20solution%20is,of%20the%20former%20Mandatory%20Palestine.\\&text=The%20first%20proposal%20for%20separate,Peel%20Commission%20report%20in%201937.). However, this plan was never fully realized. The creation of Israel in 1948 led to a [war with neighboring Arab states](https://www.britannica.com/event/Arab-Israeli-wars), after which Israel controlled significantly more territory than the original partition plan had allocated, leaving Palestinians without a recognized state.\nHamas, an Islamist militant group that seeks the destruction of Israel, gained control of the Gaza Strip [after winning elections in 2006](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_election#:~:text=The%20Central%20Elections%20Commission%20released,narrowly%20ahead%20on%20the%20lists.). Supported by Iran and Hezbollah, Hamas has regularly clashed with Israel. [The most recent conflict erupted on October 7, 2023, when Hamas launched a deadly attack on Israel, taking hostages and sparking a fierce military response](https://www.britannica.com/event/Israel-Hamas-War#ref1320682). This renewed violence has intensified calls for a solution to the long-standing conflict.\nA two-state solution, which envisions independent Israeli and Palestinian states, has long been debated as a potential path to peace. However, the current hostilities raise questions about the feasibility of this outcome. While international pressure may push for a diplomatic resolution, Israel’s inability to swiftly [rescue hostages](https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-hostages-war-hamas-gaza-09-02-24-intl-hnk/index.html) and the [high civilian casualty rates](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/8/12/israel-civilian-deaths-and-the-question-of-proportionality) in Gaza could erode its global support, further complicating efforts to achieve lasting peace. The war may either reinforce the necessity of a two-state solution or push the conflict into an even more entrenched and violent cycle, with peace appearing more distant than ever." }, { "id": 28327, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "ILA strike October 2024?", "url_title": "ILA strike October 2024?", "slug": "ila-strike-october-2024", "author_id": 110301, "author_username": "FelixK", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-19T07:34:06.277385Z", "published_at": "2024-09-24T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.273849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-24T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-24T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28327, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) go on strike before October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-19T07:34:06.277385Z", "open_time": "2024-09-24T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-25T00:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-25T00:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-08T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-09T16:04:15.028530Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast [is set to expire](https://www.huschblackwell.com/newsandinsights/ila-labor-agreement-set-to-expire-strike-looms) on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by October 1st, the ILA has announced its intent to strike, which could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and global trade. These ports handle approximately 43% of U.S. imports, meaning the impact on industries ranging from retail to manufacturing would be substantial, potentially leading to backlogs that could take weeks to resolve.\n\nKey issues in the negotiations include wage increases and opposition to port automation. The ILA claims that wages have not kept pace with inflation or rising corporate profits, particularly those of ocean carriers. Businesses have already begun taking preemptive measures, such as diverting shipments to the West Coast, though this might only shift the strain elsewhere. A strike could also create widespread container shortages, increase shipping costs, and delay critical imports from Europe, Latin America, and other regions.\n\nThe Biden administration could invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to block the strike, but according to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/biden-wont-block-potential-strike-east-coast-ports-administration-official-says-2024-09-17/) they do not intend to do so.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 7, 2024, credible sources report that an International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike has officially begun. An announcement of an impending strike would not be sufficient to resolve this question. If a strike begins and is later stopped for whatever reason, this question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28327, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727773492.04448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727773492.04448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9482163831052602 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44762836287875585, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7340267287201618, 3.0211602738350383 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 68.78469464174285, "peer_score": 5.266378933256294, "coverage": 0.9432434448880603, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9774444747552269, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 68.78469464174285, "peer_archived_score": 5.266378933256294, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727773492.074997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727773492.074997, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.028091349416374367, 0.9719086505836256 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The current labor agreement between the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) and U.S. port operators on the East Coast and Gulf Coast [is set to expire](https://www.huschblackwell.com/newsandinsights/ila-labor-agreement-set-to-expire-strike-looms) on September 30, 2024. If no new agreement is reached by October 1st, the ILA has announced its intent to strike, which could significantly disrupt U.S. supply chains and global trade. These ports handle approximately 43% of U.S. imports, meaning the impact on industries ranging from retail to manufacturing would be substantial, potentially leading to backlogs that could take weeks to resolve.\n\nKey issues in the negotiations include wage increases and opposition to port automation. The ILA claims that wages have not kept pace with inflation or rising corporate profits, particularly those of ocean carriers. Businesses have already begun taking preemptive measures, such as diverting shipments to the West Coast, though this might only shift the strain elsewhere. A strike could also create widespread container shortages, increase shipping costs, and delay critical imports from Europe, Latin America, and other regions.\n\nThe Biden administration could invoke the Taft-Hartley Act to block the strike, but according to [Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/biden-wont-block-potential-strike-east-coast-ports-administration-official-says-2024-09-17/) they do not intend to do so." }, { "id": 28306, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-less-than-300-on-september-30-2024-according-to-aaa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:35.262707Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.909544Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28306, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be less than $3.00 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:35.262707Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T19:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is <$3.000 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, \"Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed.\" These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922295.5893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3935 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922295.5893, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.3935 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6065, 0.3935 ], "means": [ 0.4547623373296481 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7838606440004593, 0.0, 0.08754374207256055, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.4812676876136617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4344744012615802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48618795850860363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 1.0459286218559325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39756239304771235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 27.85795504584233, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 27.85795504584233 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922295.855482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922295.855482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7608240981560082, 0.23917590184399187 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price)." }, { "id": 28305, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-greater-than-340-on-september-30-2024-according-to-aaa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:35.121739Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.699604Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28305, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.40 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:35.121739Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T19:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.400 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, \"Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed.\" These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28305, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922209.529868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922209.529868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1982863825950619 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3673446804463298, 0.6318674441304005, 0.0, 1.0240210702127923, 0.0, 0.4245262689949799, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 1.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.11525585627893538, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5910501682858003, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922209.567779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922209.567779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9250795002244936, 0.07492049977550647 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price)." }, { "id": 28304, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-greater-than-330-on-september-30-2024-according-to-aaa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.537168Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.872788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28304, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.30 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.537168Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.300 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, \"Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed.\" These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28304, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922121.219169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2823333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922121.219169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2823333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7176666666666667, 0.2823333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.3073818489662607 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.017197143016031723, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 1.2768635580590253, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.23522591747316993, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5589962451719519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9612061900598177, 0.0, 0.13888735494815957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2007898744313548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45717584211376655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 52.13858187839906, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.13858187839906 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922121.264596, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922121.264596, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8697162242289727, 0.1302837757710274 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price)." }, { "id": 28303, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-greater-than-310-on-september-30-2024-according-to-aaa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.388401Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.035916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28303, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.10 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.388401Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T19:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.100 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, \"Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed.\" These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922254.822245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922254.822245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.525, 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.5406478283781703 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6114791033402216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.918654118458315, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6997062017903195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.11486889005002407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.6850893156161345, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922254.863953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922254.863953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5572500042574815, 0.4427499957425185 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price)." }, { "id": 28302, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-national-average-retail-price-of-regular-gasoline-be-greater-than-3205-on-september-30-2024-according-to-aaa", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.239648Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.375811Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28302, "title": "Will the US national average retail price of regular gasoline be greater than $3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.239648Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T19:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the value of the national average retail price of regular gas is >$3.205 on September 30, 2024, according to AAA, which can be accessed through the following link: [AAA National average gas prices](https://gasprices.aaa.com/) Specifically, on October 1, 2024, Metaculus will access the resolution link, and the number will resolve as the *Yesterday Avg.* for *Regular* gas.", "fine_print": "If the resolution source is inaccessible all day for Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled** due to a core assumption of this question being overturned. Please note this question makes certain other assumptions about the state of the world, such as AAA continuing its methodology, which it describes as, \"Average gas prices are updated daily to reflect changes in price by gas grade and time frame listed.\" These key assumptions of the question being overturned, however, will cause this question to be annulled. Please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922162.903105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922162.903105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.48750000000000004, 0.5125 ], "means": [ 0.5136048581256794 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.2140271846632602, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.7022864586321662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15720225121530507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.692838069357762, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38213595752647456, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0131475064393194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7462504723962555, 0.011364900518339544, 0.12966207226855211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.830503651721767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 3.5623909730721217, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 3.5623909730721217 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922162.973233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922162.973233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7013779370482487, 0.29862206295175137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the working paper Gasoline Prices and Presidential Approval Ratings of the United States (pdf [here](https://www.zbw.eu/econis-archiv/bitstream/11159/654462/1/1895045622_0.pdf)) in a multidecade study of Gallup polling, there is a correlation coefficient of -0.46 between a president's approval rating and real gas prices, with a p-value of 0.00. Indeed according to [S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/062624-us-elections-gasoline-price-fluctuations-could-play-role-in-2024-presidential-election), gas prices were strongly correlated with Joe Biden's disapproval ratings, at least until other factors such as the Israel-Hamas war became stronger influences: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/3e5d524b-863e-488a-abaf-290df810d211.svg\" /> \n\nThe question of whether Kamala Harris, as Biden's Vice President, may benefit from a recent fall in gas prices, which are at nearly a [3-year low](https://www.newsweek.com/us-gas-prices-three-year-low-kamala-harris-1952733), is an open one. According to an analysis from [The Economic Times](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/us/will-kamala-harris-get-a-bump-from-low-gas-prices-in-the-november-u-s-elections/articleshow/113298086.cms?from=mdr):\n\n>The decline is mostly the result of a confluence of economic factors rather than the direct intervention of the Biden administration. However, it might provide Vice President Harris with favourable obstacles regarding financial matters during the last few months of the campaign.\n\n>The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 are two examples of recent global events that have caused higher gas prices. According to Patrick DeHaan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, the market is coming into a better sense of balance. So it certainly is good news for the incumbent party, potentially, that gas prices are falling, though he expects there will continue to be a lot of noise from politicians on both sides of the aisle on this issue. \n\nIt is also important to note that historically there can be a lot of volatility in gas prices during election years: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/PlattsContent/_assets/_images/latest-news/f02e3ee4-fbc8-462f-b448-69d7fc39927b.svg\" />\n\nPlease see chart of recent retail gas prices [here](https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gas_price)." }, { "id": 28301, "title": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-of-these-large-tech-companies-announce-layoffs-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.089867Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.346530Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28301, "title": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:34.089867Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:\n\nOn September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.\n\nApple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division. \n\nGoogle had layoff events in January, April, May, and June. \n\nIBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)\n\nMeta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.\n\nNvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).\n \nOracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024. \n\nSalesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.\n\nTesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker *A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs*, which currently can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/12/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), one of the following listed companies has layoffs in September 2024:\n\n- Amazon \n- Apple\n- Google or Alphabet\n- IBM\n- Meta or Facebook\n- Nvidia \n- Oracle\n- Salesforce\n- Tesla\n\nIf no layoff event is listed under the September 2024 section for any of the above companies, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. \n\nIf on October 1, 2024, the time stamp on the resolution source is not September 30, 2024 or later, resolution will wait until up to October 7, 2024, for the entire month of September to be shown. If on October 7, 2024 the time stamp is not September 30, 2024 or later, this question resolves based on what is displayed at the resolution source at the time. \n\nIn order to count, the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, if there is a layoff event at Waymo, it will not count for purposes of this question unless the subheading mentions Alphabet or Google, even though Waymo is owned by Alphabet.\n\nTech Crunch's layoffs tracker dynamically updates its URL based on the last update. This question resolves based on the most recent version of the page that encompasses the month of September through September 30.", "post_id": 28301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922337.630472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6058736684317606 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922337.630472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6058736684317606 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6713417617447409 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1999314988985187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.7690652031049114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9946081349148367, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 1.3171003182761611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3752513947953817, 0.0, 0.4995825838808072, 0.22460198356168767, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922337.672858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922337.672858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3368105032087565, 0.6631894967912435 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:\n\nOn September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.\n\nApple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division. \n\nGoogle had layoff events in January, April, May, and June. \n\nIBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)\n\nMeta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.\n\nNvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).\n \nOracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024. \n\nSalesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.\n\nTesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce." }, { "id": 28300, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-any-of-these-prominent-democrats-appear-as-guests-on-the-lex-fridman-podcast", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:33.812351Z", "published_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.865302Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28300, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T13:16:33.812351Z", "open_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T11:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).\n\nOn September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):\n\n>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris\n>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />\n>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />\n>- [at]BarackObama<br />\n>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />\n>- [at]BernieSanders<br />\n>- [at]AOC\n\n>I think we can have amazing conversations!\n\n>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.\n\n>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤\n\n>DM's are open! 🙏", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, any of the following individuals appears on the Lex Fridman podcast, listed on the [Podcast Episodes Page](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) (with the person's name appearing in red under the episode title) in an episode more recent than episode #443:\n\n- Kamala Harris\n- Tim Walz\n- Barack Obama\n- Hillary Clinton\n- Bernie Sanders\n- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez\n\nIf this event does not occur before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Appears\" is defined simply as the individual's name appearing in red under the episode title on the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.", "post_id": 28300, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922369.524507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16733333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922369.524507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.16733333333333333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8326666666666667, 0.16733333333333333 ], "means": [ 0.23435163450947283 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9627688564428236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3015968551108629, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.09207380390900106, 0.35834256537117526, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.474628926190292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4137677165138935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 73.58109762247142, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.58109762247142 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726922369.563074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726922369.563074, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9275167191730819, 0.07248328082691813 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).\n\nOn September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):\n\n>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris\n>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />\n>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />\n>- [at]BarackObama<br />\n>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />\n>- [at]BernieSanders<br />\n>- [at]AOC\n\n>I think we can have amazing conversations!\n\n>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.\n\n>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤\n\n>DM's are open! 🙏" }, { "id": 28292, "title": "Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-closing-value-of-teslas-shares-be-at-least-230-on-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T12:44:23.541818Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.725662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28292, "title": "Will the closing value of Tesla's shares be at least $230 on September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T12:44:23.541818Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of the close of trading on Friday, September 13, 2024, Tesla traded at $230.29 per share. At the time of this question, Tesla is planning to unveil its Robotaxi on October 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history/) the listed \"Close\" price for Tesla, Inc., is greater than or equal to $230.00 for September 30, 2024.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Forward or reverse stock splits will be immaterial for this question.", "post_id": 28292, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726755838.869177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5735 ], "centers": [ 0.606 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726755838.869177, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5735 ], "centers": [ 0.606 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.394, 0.606 ], "means": [ 0.594751189469749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.43873959438930515, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1154000130630344, 0.0, 1.1233817284454766, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8066359810856345, 0.0, 0.5999787170869234, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 1.1069737433556373, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 1.0, 0.09691743015963925, 1.0210421401722347, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43526191892794824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 27.738969881086383, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 27.738969881086383 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726755838.897669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726755838.897669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5304612181786243, 0.4695387818213756 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the close of trading on Friday, September 13, 2024, Tesla traded at $230.29 per share. At the time of this question, Tesla is planning to unveil its Robotaxi on October 10, 2024." }, { "id": 28291, "title": "Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-laredo-oil-inc-file-its-10-k-annual-report-with-the-sec-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T12:44:23.404686Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.139701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28291, "title": "Will Laredo Oil, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T12:44:23.404686Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T12:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 29, 2024, Laredo Oil, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1442492/000119983524000414/form_nt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2024, for Laredo Oil, Inc. at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001442492&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If the resolution source link remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the SEC discontinuing its \"Classic version\"), this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 28291, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726755922.482659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726755922.482659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.425 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5442344462074991 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.08991462558617408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8490969387862373, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.45314515134150546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4815393474979581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3540602060194846, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45315317819737344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.7879044857416747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726755922.506264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726755922.506264, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6378959834178883, 0.36210401658211167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 29, 2024, Laredo Oil, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1442492/000119983524000414/form_nt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report. " }, { "id": 28290, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-virgin-galactic-make-any-new-posts-on-its-news-page-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T12:44:23.088461Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.719232Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28290, "title": "Will Virgin Galactic make any new posts on its News page before October 1, 2024? ", "created_at": "2024-09-18T12:44:23.088461Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T11:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T11:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 8, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at Virgin Galactic's News page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.virgingalactic.com/news), timestamped after the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 28290, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726755875.926821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726755875.926821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.46 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.54, 0.46 ], "means": [ 0.5331263790188357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 1.4872105671698428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.31203101355315743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2928356249839038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7879044857416747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.5255848566432779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16084644938160092, 0.5184797798380378, 0.5090028279124723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726755875.956861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726755875.956861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5431893125045701, 0.4568106874954298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 8, 2024, Virgin Galactic's most recent post was timestamped July 10, 2024." }, { "id": 28284, "title": "Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 6.7 million people in Madhya Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?", "short_title": "ILC devices for ≥6.7m ppl in Madhya Pradesh?", "url_title": "ILC devices for ≥6.7m ppl in Madhya Pradesh?", "slug": "ilc-devices-for-67m-ppl-in-madhya-pradesh", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T11:19:21.863979Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:17:27.870094Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T00:57:32.115254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:17:27.870093Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:29:04.039295Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28284, "title": "Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 6.7 million people in Madhya Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T11:19:21.863979Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "GiveWell estimates that chlorination of water is a cost-effective way of saving lives in localities such as the Indian state of [Madhya Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh) (population [88 million](https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/india/madhya-pradesh-population.php)) by [reducing](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions) the concentration of pathogens in water, reducing diarrhea risk in children under five and waterborne disease risk in the population overall. This estimate is based on research from randomized controlled trials on the impact of chlorination on all-cause mortality among children under five years old in low-income settings, and triangulated by historical research of the effects of water quality improvements on all-cause mortality in the United States, Europe and Japan.\n\nIn the case of the Evidence Action initiative in Madhya Pradesh, GiveWell [is anticipating](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=2068919910#gid=2068919910&range=L17) a ~5% reduction of mortality. The costs are low because each tank with an ILC device will serve about [1,100 people](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J13). The ILC devices will be installed on new piped water sources that the government of India is working to provide to all rural households through its [Jal Jeevan Mission](https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/).\n\nIn-line chlorination (ILC) is a method for automatically treating drinking water and [is considered](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12f_yMLVLoqWcEyxadn01sTCLEx5RC8jn_8NL0iiWjdI/edit) an appealing water treatment method in places such as Madhya Pradesh, because it involves a small device attached to a pipe near the point of water collection (often tanks), which dispenses chlorine into the water as needed. It's automatic and requires no action on the part of those drinking the water.\n\nAt the time GiveWell recommended this grant, it projected that by the end of the 2nd year of the project (approximately September 2025), Evidence Action would have installed [1,113](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J50) ILC devices in Madhya Pradesh, which would reach [1,192,741](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J52) people. The assumption is that following that, if successful, the government will install and maintain additional devices in Madhya Pradesh. GiveWell estimated that the total number of devices would amount to at least [6,918](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M50) over the remainder of the period, reaching [6.7 million](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=L52) people at the end of four years.\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 70% likelihood that the program will reach 6.7 million people if it continues until the end of year 4 of the grant period. GiveWell outlines in its [grant rationale](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#How_many_additional_people_will_receive_chlorination_in_Andhra_Pradesh_and_Madhya_Pradesh_as_a_result_of_Evidence_Action-s_program) some potential reasons why the program might not achieve its expected reach, such as:\n\n- Dependence on government funding and buy-in\n- The necessity to construct physical infrastructure\n- The novelty of ILC technology\n\nSee Also: \n\n- [Evidence Action — India In-Line Chlorination Pilot Expansion (July 2023)\n](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023)\n- [Evidence Action — Scale-Up of In-Line Chlorination in India (September 2023)](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023)", "resolution_criteria": "Evidence Action will collect data on their program's outcomes in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, India, at the end of its fourth year, expected to be shared with GiveWell in early 2028. This question will resolve as **Yes** if GiveWell's assessment of this data shows that in-line chlorination (ILC) devices at water sources serve ≥6,700,000 people in Madhya Pradesh.\n\nIf GiveWell’s assessment is that the number of people in Andhra Pradesh served by ILC devices is \\<6,700,000, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Evidence Action's GiveWell-funded program to scale up ILC devices in Madhya Pradesh is discontinued before reaching the end of its 4th year, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nGiveWell expects to receive the following information from Evidence Action that will help GiveWell assess the number of people served by ILC devices in the state:\n1. The average number of functioning ILC devices maintained in a year.\n2. The average number of households per water source with a device.\n3. The average number of people per household.\n4. The average number of under-five year-olds per household.\n5. The % of households whose water sample tests positive for chlorine.\n6. The % households whose water sample was positive for chlorine who report using ILC devices.\n\n\"People served\" is defined as 1 x 2 x 3 (i.e. people using a water point with an ILC device, regardless of whether their water is chlorinated).\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until September 8, 2029, after which the question will be annulled if Metaculus determines there is insufficient evidence to support a Yes or No resolution.", "post_id": 28284, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1759753246.664, "end_time": 1763522457.462, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1759753246.664, "end_time": 1763522457.462, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5954013576244298 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3938259988704744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7301399913921385, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "GiveWell estimates that chlorination of water is a cost-effective way of saving lives in localities such as the Indian state of [Madhya Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh) (population [88 million](https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/india/madhya-pradesh-population.php)) by [reducing](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions) the concentration of pathogens in water, reducing diarrhea risk in children under five and waterborne disease risk in the population overall. This estimate is based on research from randomized controlled trials on the impact of chlorination on all-cause mortality among children under five years old in low-income settings, and triangulated by historical research of the effects of water quality improvements on all-cause mortality in the United States, Europe and Japan.\n\nIn the case of the Evidence Action initiative in Madhya Pradesh, GiveWell [is anticipating](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=2068919910#gid=2068919910&range=L17) a ~5% reduction of mortality. The costs are low because each tank with an ILC device will serve about [1,100 people](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J13). The ILC devices will be installed on new piped water sources that the government of India is working to provide to all rural households through its [Jal Jeevan Mission](https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/).\n\nIn-line chlorination (ILC) is a method for automatically treating drinking water and [is considered](https://docs.google.com/document/d/12f_yMLVLoqWcEyxadn01sTCLEx5RC8jn_8NL0iiWjdI/edit) an appealing water treatment method in places such as Madhya Pradesh, because it involves a small device attached to a pipe near the point of water collection (often tanks), which dispenses chlorine into the water as needed. It's automatic and requires no action on the part of those drinking the water.\n\nAt the time GiveWell recommended this grant, it projected that by the end of the 2nd year of the project (approximately September 2025), Evidence Action would have installed [1,113](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J50) ILC devices in Madhya Pradesh, which would reach [1,192,741](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J52) people. The assumption is that following that, if successful, the government will install and maintain additional devices in Madhya Pradesh. GiveWell estimated that the total number of devices would amount to at least [6,918](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M50) over the remainder of the period, reaching [6.7 million](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=L52) people at the end of four years.\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a 70% likelihood that the program will reach 6.7 million people if it continues until the end of year 4 of the grant period. GiveWell outlines in its [grant rationale](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#How_many_additional_people_will_receive_chlorination_in_Andhra_Pradesh_and_Madhya_Pradesh_as_a_result_of_Evidence_Action-s_program) some potential reasons why the program might not achieve its expected reach, such as:\n\n- Dependence on government funding and buy-in\n- The necessity to construct physical infrastructure\n- The novelty of ILC technology\n\nSee Also: \n\n- [Evidence Action — India In-Line Chlorination Pilot Expansion (July 2023)\n](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023)\n- [Evidence Action — Scale-Up of In-Line Chlorination in India (September 2023)](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023)" }, { "id": 28268, "title": "Will a new constitutional amendment concerning firearms be ratified in the United States before 2029?", "short_title": "US Amendment Concerning Firearms Before 2029?", "url_title": "US Amendment Concerning Firearms Before 2029?", "slug": "us-amendment-concerning-firearms-before-2029", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T04:34:49.013244Z", "published_at": "2024-09-25T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T04:45:47.250300Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-25T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-25T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3632, "type": "question_series", "name": "🗽Forecast the State of the Union 🗽", "slug": "us-forecasts", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/state_of_the_union_plain.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-09-18T17:53:02Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-18T17:53:02.707270Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T14:09:08.143455Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3632, "type": "question_series", "name": "🗽Forecast the State of the Union 🗽", "slug": "us-forecasts", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/state_of_the_union_plain.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-09-18T17:53:02Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T18:53:02Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-18T17:53:02.707270Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T14:09:08.143455Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28268, "title": "Will a new constitutional amendment concerning firearms be ratified in the United States before 2029?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T04:34:49.013244Z", "open_time": "2024-09-25T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-28T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-28T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the United States, the [Second Amendment to the Constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution) protects citizens' right to keep and bear firearms, [reading](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-ii):\n\n>A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.\n\nDue to the [high prevalence of gun violence in the US relative to other wealthy countries](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/center-for-gun-violence-solutions/research-reports/firearm-violence-in-the-united-states), laws concerning firearms are often politically contentious. Democrats [tend to favor imposing additional regulations on firearms](https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/the-issues/preventing-gun-violence/) that are viewed with suspicion by Republicans who [tend to be opposed to such regulations](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4345455-senate-republicans-block-assault-weapons-ban/). Organizations such as the National Rifle Association (NRA) have claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris [opposes the Second Amendment](https://www.nraila.org/articles/20240729/kamala-harris-is-an-existential-threat-to-the-second-amendment-and-supports-gun-confiscation), though Harris [does not appear](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/08/30/haris-walz-quote-second-amendment-ar15-fact-check/74999330007/) to have made any statements explicitly opposing the Second Amendment, and instead the allegations seem to hinge on her views as to [which gun regulations are permissible under the Second Amendment](https://reason.com/volokh/2020/08/26/kamala-harris-on-the-second-amendment/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2029, a new constitutional amendment is ratified in the United States that concerns firearms. An amendment will be considered to be concerning firearms if it does one or more of the following:\n\n* Modifies, supersedes, or repeals the Second Amendment in any way.\n* Explicitly mentions firearms in any way (the term \"firearm\" need not be used, synonyms of \"firearm\" would count).\n\nIf no such new amendment is ratified in the US before January 1, 2029, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that for purposes of this question, it will not matter whether the new amendment restricts or expands [the right to keep and bear arms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Right_to_keep_and_bear_arms_in_the_United_States). The question looks only at whether the amendment modifies, supersedes, or repeals the Second Amendment in any way and explicitly mentions firearms or a synonym thereof.", "post_id": 28268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762836336.417245, "end_time": 1765329394.496, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762836336.417245, "end_time": 1765329394.496, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.02946297103994115 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.860367233969911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286921.770262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286921.770262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the United States, the [Second Amendment to the Constitution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution) protects citizens' right to keep and bear firearms, [reading](https://constitutioncenter.org/the-constitution/amendments/amendment-ii):\n\n>A well regulated Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be infringed.\n\nDue to the [high prevalence of gun violence in the US relative to other wealthy countries](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/center-for-gun-violence-solutions/research-reports/firearm-violence-in-the-united-states), laws concerning firearms are often politically contentious. Democrats [tend to favor imposing additional regulations on firearms](https://democrats.org/where-we-stand/the-issues/preventing-gun-violence/) that are viewed with suspicion by Republicans who [tend to be opposed to such regulations](https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4345455-senate-republicans-block-assault-weapons-ban/). Organizations such as the National Rifle Association (NRA) have claimed that Vice President Kamala Harris [opposes the Second Amendment](https://www.nraila.org/articles/20240729/kamala-harris-is-an-existential-threat-to-the-second-amendment-and-supports-gun-confiscation), though Harris [does not appear](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2024/08/30/haris-walz-quote-second-amendment-ar15-fact-check/74999330007/) to have made any statements explicitly opposing the Second Amendment, and instead the allegations seem to hinge on her views as to [which gun regulations are permissible under the Second Amendment](https://reason.com/volokh/2020/08/26/kamala-harris-on-the-second-amendment/)." }, { "id": 28267, "title": "Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 5.8 million people in Andhra Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?", "short_title": "ILC devices for ≥5.8m ppl in Andhra Pradesh?", "url_title": "ILC devices for ≥5.8m ppl in Andhra Pradesh?", "slug": "ilc-devices-for-58m-ppl-in-andhra-pradesh", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T02:41:36.487024Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:17:35.921793Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:46:30.621606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:17:35.921791Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:29:04.039295Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28267, "title": "Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 5.8 million people in Andhra Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T02:41:36.487024Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In March, [July](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023), and [September](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) 2023, [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) recommended three grants to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/) of ~$40.6 million to pilot in-line chlorination (ILC) and then provide technical assistance to the governments of [Andhra Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradesh) and [Madhya Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh) for implementing ILC through piped water sources in the rural areas of the states. Andhra Pradesh's total population is estimated at around [53 million](https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/india/andhra-pradesh-population.php) and its rural population is estimated at around [38 million](https://ejalshakti.gov.in/JJM/JJMReports/BasicInformation/JJMRep_RWS_RuralPopulation.aspx).\n\nThe government of India is embarking on a major push to provide piped water to all rural households through its [Jal Jeevan Mission](https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/). The ILC devices will be installed on those new piped water sources.\n\nGiveWell estimates that [water contamination is likely high](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#Why_we_recommended_this_grant) in India, which leads to deaths from diarrhea and related infectious diseases in areas such as Andhra Pradesh.\n\nResearch on the effects of water chlorination suggests that water treatment plausibly reduces deaths, [according to GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions):\n\n> In-line chlorination is a technology for automatically disinfecting water at shared water collection points in low-income settings with unsafe water. We use the findings of water quality RCTs, adjusted for internal and external validity, to estimate reductions in all-cause mortality in children under five and people five and older [[123](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] [Pickering et al. 2019](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30315-8/fulltext), the only published RCT of in-line chlorination with a diarrhea outcome, forms the basis of our adherence adjustment [[124](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=864135715#gid=864135715)] a key input of our external validity adjustment. [Clasen et al. 2015](https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD004794.pub3/full), the most recent Cochrane meta-analysis of water treatment trials, forms the basis for the morbidity reduction estimate [[125](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1336716860#gid=1336716860)] and the plausibility limit derived from it [[126](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1674952052#gid=1674952052)] After adjustments, we estimate that in-line chlorination in Kenya reduces all-cause mortality by 11% in children under five and 2% in people five and over [[127](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] We further estimate that development effects and medical costs averted account for 35% and 19% of the total benefit of the intervention, respectively.\n\nAt the time GiveWell recommended this grant, it projected that by the end of the 2nd year of the project (approximately September 2025), Evidence Action would have installed [655](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J49) ILC devices in Andhra Pradesh, which would reach an estimated [1,193,239](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J51) total people. The expectation is that following the initial round of installations by Evidence Action, if successful, the government will install and maintain additional devices in the state. GiveWell estimated that the total number of devices would amount to [3,204](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M49) devices over the remainder of the period, reaching [5.8 million](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M51) people at the end of four years. GiveWell has not updated these estimates since the time of the grant decision.\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a likelihood of 70% that the devices will indeed serve at least 5.8 million people at the end of four years, conditional on the program not being discontinued before that time.\n\nSee Also: \n\n- [Evidence Action — India In-Line Chlorination Pilot Expansion (July 2023)\n](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023)\n- [Evidence Action — Scale-Up of In-Line Chlorination in India (September 2023)](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023)", "resolution_criteria": "Evidence Action will collect data on their program's outcomes in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, India, at the end of its fourth year, expected to be shared with GiveWell in early 2028. This question will resolve as **Yes** if GiveWell's assessment of this data shows that in-line chlorination (ILC) devices at water sources serve ≥5,800,000 people in Andhra Pradesh.\n\nIf GiveWell’s assessment is that the number of people in Andhra Pradesh served by ILC devices is \\<5,800,000, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Evidence Action's GiveWell-funded program to scale up ILC devices in Andhra Pradesh is discontinued before reaching the end of its 4th year, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nGiveWell expects to receive the following information from Evidence Action that will help GiveWell assess the number of people served by ILC devices in the state:\n1. The average number of functioning ILC devices maintained in a year.\n2. The average number of households per water source with a device.\n3. The average number of people per household.\n4. The average number of under-five year-olds per household.\n5. The % of households whose water sample tests positive for chlorine.\n6. The % households whose water sample was positive for chlorine who report using ILC devices.\n\n\"People served\" is defined as 1 x 2 x 3 (i.e., people using a water point with an ILC device, regardless of whether their water is chlorinated).\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until September 8, 2029, after which the question will be **annulled** if GiveWell determines there is insufficient evidence to support a Yes or No resolution.", "post_id": 28267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761871580.263603, "end_time": 1763522448.964, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761871580.263603, "end_time": 1763522448.964, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7486694454037726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6798524115496861, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In March, [July](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023), and [September](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) 2023, [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) recommended three grants to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/) of ~$40.6 million to pilot in-line chlorination (ILC) and then provide technical assistance to the governments of [Andhra Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradesh) and [Madhya Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh) for implementing ILC through piped water sources in the rural areas of the states. Andhra Pradesh's total population is estimated at around [53 million](https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/india/andhra-pradesh-population.php) and its rural population is estimated at around [38 million](https://ejalshakti.gov.in/JJM/JJMReports/BasicInformation/JJMRep_RWS_RuralPopulation.aspx).\n\nThe government of India is embarking on a major push to provide piped water to all rural households through its [Jal Jeevan Mission](https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/). The ILC devices will be installed on those new piped water sources.\n\nGiveWell estimates that [water contamination is likely high](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#Why_we_recommended_this_grant) in India, which leads to deaths from diarrhea and related infectious diseases in areas such as Andhra Pradesh.\n\nResearch on the effects of water chlorination suggests that water treatment plausibly reduces deaths, [according to GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions):\n\n> In-line chlorination is a technology for automatically disinfecting water at shared water collection points in low-income settings with unsafe water. We use the findings of water quality RCTs, adjusted for internal and external validity, to estimate reductions in all-cause mortality in children under five and people five and older [[123](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] [Pickering et al. 2019](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30315-8/fulltext), the only published RCT of in-line chlorination with a diarrhea outcome, forms the basis of our adherence adjustment [[124](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=864135715#gid=864135715)] a key input of our external validity adjustment. [Clasen et al. 2015](https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD004794.pub3/full), the most recent Cochrane meta-analysis of water treatment trials, forms the basis for the morbidity reduction estimate [[125](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1336716860#gid=1336716860)] and the plausibility limit derived from it [[126](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1674952052#gid=1674952052)] After adjustments, we estimate that in-line chlorination in Kenya reduces all-cause mortality by 11% in children under five and 2% in people five and over [[127](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] We further estimate that development effects and medical costs averted account for 35% and 19% of the total benefit of the intervention, respectively.\n\nAt the time GiveWell recommended this grant, it projected that by the end of the 2nd year of the project (approximately September 2025), Evidence Action would have installed [655](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J49) ILC devices in Andhra Pradesh, which would reach an estimated [1,193,239](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J51) total people. The expectation is that following the initial round of installations by Evidence Action, if successful, the government will install and maintain additional devices in the state. GiveWell estimated that the total number of devices would amount to [3,204](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M49) devices over the remainder of the period, reaching [5.8 million](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M51) people at the end of four years. GiveWell has not updated these estimates since the time of the grant decision.\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a likelihood of 70% that the devices will indeed serve at least 5.8 million people at the end of four years, conditional on the program not being discontinued before that time.\n\nSee Also: \n\n- [Evidence Action — India In-Line Chlorination Pilot Expansion (July 2023)\n](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023)\n- [Evidence Action — Scale-Up of In-Line Chlorination in India (September 2023)](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023)" } ] }
