Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2460
{ "count": 6345, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2480", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2440", "results": [ { "id": 28267, "title": "Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 5.8 million people in Andhra Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?", "short_title": "ILC devices for ≥5.8m ppl in Andhra Pradesh?", "url_title": "ILC devices for ≥5.8m ppl in Andhra Pradesh?", "slug": "ilc-devices-for-58m-ppl-in-andhra-pradesh", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-18T02:41:36.487024Z", "published_at": "2024-10-21T16:17:35.921793Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T00:46:30.621606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-21T16:17:35.921791Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32513, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell Comment Prize", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell-comment-prize", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-10-18T21:10:37.173928Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T00:29:04.039295Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3600, "type": "question_series", "name": "Forecast With GiveWell", "slug": "forecast-with-givewell", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-10-23T10:00:01Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T14:00:01Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-09-09T17:11:01.867864Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-13T03:22:46.276289Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28267, "title": "Will in-line chlorination devices serve at least 5.8 million people in Andhra Pradesh at the end of the 4th year of Evidence Action's program?", "created_at": "2024-09-18T02:41:36.487024Z", "open_time": "2024-10-23T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-25T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-03-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-09-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In March, [July](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023), and [September](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) 2023, [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) recommended three grants to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/) of ~$40.6 million to pilot in-line chlorination (ILC) and then provide technical assistance to the governments of [Andhra Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradesh) and [Madhya Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh) for implementing ILC through piped water sources in the rural areas of the states. Andhra Pradesh's total population is estimated at around [53 million](https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/india/andhra-pradesh-population.php) and its rural population is estimated at around [38 million](https://ejalshakti.gov.in/JJM/JJMReports/BasicInformation/JJMRep_RWS_RuralPopulation.aspx).\n\nThe government of India is embarking on a major push to provide piped water to all rural households through its [Jal Jeevan Mission](https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/). The ILC devices will be installed on those new piped water sources.\n\nGiveWell estimates that [water contamination is likely high](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#Why_we_recommended_this_grant) in India, which leads to deaths from diarrhea and related infectious diseases in areas such as Andhra Pradesh.\n\nResearch on the effects of water chlorination suggests that water treatment plausibly reduces deaths, [according to GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions):\n\n> In-line chlorination is a technology for automatically disinfecting water at shared water collection points in low-income settings with unsafe water. We use the findings of water quality RCTs, adjusted for internal and external validity, to estimate reductions in all-cause mortality in children under five and people five and older [[123](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] [Pickering et al. 2019](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30315-8/fulltext), the only published RCT of in-line chlorination with a diarrhea outcome, forms the basis of our adherence adjustment [[124](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=864135715#gid=864135715)] a key input of our external validity adjustment. [Clasen et al. 2015](https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD004794.pub3/full), the most recent Cochrane meta-analysis of water treatment trials, forms the basis for the morbidity reduction estimate [[125](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1336716860#gid=1336716860)] and the plausibility limit derived from it [[126](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1674952052#gid=1674952052)] After adjustments, we estimate that in-line chlorination in Kenya reduces all-cause mortality by 11% in children under five and 2% in people five and over [[127](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] We further estimate that development effects and medical costs averted account for 35% and 19% of the total benefit of the intervention, respectively.\n\nAt the time GiveWell recommended this grant, it projected that by the end of the 2nd year of the project (approximately September 2025), Evidence Action would have installed [655](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J49) ILC devices in Andhra Pradesh, which would reach an estimated [1,193,239](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J51) total people. The expectation is that following the initial round of installations by Evidence Action, if successful, the government will install and maintain additional devices in the state. GiveWell estimated that the total number of devices would amount to [3,204](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M49) devices over the remainder of the period, reaching [5.8 million](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M51) people at the end of four years. GiveWell has not updated these estimates since the time of the grant decision.\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a likelihood of 70% that the devices will indeed serve at least 5.8 million people at the end of four years, conditional on the program not being discontinued before that time.\n\nSee Also: \n\n- [Evidence Action — India In-Line Chlorination Pilot Expansion (July 2023)\n](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023)\n- [Evidence Action — Scale-Up of In-Line Chlorination in India (September 2023)](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023)", "resolution_criteria": "Evidence Action will collect data on their program's outcomes in Andhra Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh, India, at the end of its fourth year, expected to be shared with GiveWell in early 2028. This question will resolve as **Yes** if GiveWell's assessment of this data shows that in-line chlorination (ILC) devices at water sources serve ≥5,800,000 people in Andhra Pradesh.\n\nIf GiveWell’s assessment is that the number of people in Andhra Pradesh served by ILC devices is \\<5,800,000, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Evidence Action's GiveWell-funded program to scale up ILC devices in Andhra Pradesh is discontinued before reaching the end of its 4th year, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nGiveWell expects to receive the following information from Evidence Action that will help GiveWell assess the number of people served by ILC devices in the state:\n1. The average number of functioning ILC devices maintained in a year.\n2. The average number of households per water source with a device.\n3. The average number of people per household.\n4. The average number of under-five year-olds per household.\n5. The % of households whose water sample tests positive for chlorine.\n6. The % households whose water sample was positive for chlorine who report using ILC devices.\n\n\"People served\" is defined as 1 x 2 x 3 (i.e., people using a water point with an ILC device, regardless of whether their water is chlorinated).\n\nIn case of reporting delays, resolution will wait up to two years after the end of the question period, until September 8, 2029, after which the question will be **annulled** if GiveWell determines there is insufficient evidence to support a Yes or No resolution.", "post_id": 28267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761871580.263603, "end_time": 1763522448.964, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761871580.263603, "end_time": 1763522448.964, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.7486694454037726 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6798524115496861, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In March, [July](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023), and [September](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023) 2023, [GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/) recommended three grants to [Evidence Action](https://www.evidenceaction.org/) of ~$40.6 million to pilot in-line chlorination (ILC) and then provide technical assistance to the governments of [Andhra Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andhra_Pradesh) and [Madhya Pradesh](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madhya_Pradesh) for implementing ILC through piped water sources in the rural areas of the states. Andhra Pradesh's total population is estimated at around [53 million](https://statisticstimes.com/demographics/india/andhra-pradesh-population.php) and its rural population is estimated at around [38 million](https://ejalshakti.gov.in/JJM/JJMReports/BasicInformation/JJMRep_RWS_RuralPopulation.aspx).\n\nThe government of India is embarking on a major push to provide piped water to all rural households through its [Jal Jeevan Mission](https://jaljeevanmission.gov.in/). The ILC devices will be installed on those new piped water sources.\n\nGiveWell estimates that [water contamination is likely high](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023#Why_we_recommended_this_grant) in India, which leads to deaths from diarrhea and related infectious diseases in areas such as Andhra Pradesh.\n\nResearch on the effects of water chlorination suggests that water treatment plausibly reduces deaths, [according to GiveWell](https://www.givewell.org/international/technical/programs/water-quality-interventions):\n\n> In-line chlorination is a technology for automatically disinfecting water at shared water collection points in low-income settings with unsafe water. We use the findings of water quality RCTs, adjusted for internal and external validity, to estimate reductions in all-cause mortality in children under five and people five and older [[123](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] [Pickering et al. 2019](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langlo/article/PIIS2214-109X(19)30315-8/fulltext), the only published RCT of in-line chlorination with a diarrhea outcome, forms the basis of our adherence adjustment [[124](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=864135715#gid=864135715)] a key input of our external validity adjustment. [Clasen et al. 2015](https://www.cochranelibrary.com/cdsr/doi/10.1002/14651858.CD004794.pub3/full), the most recent Cochrane meta-analysis of water treatment trials, forms the basis for the morbidity reduction estimate [[125](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1336716860#gid=1336716860)] and the plausibility limit derived from it [[126](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1674952052#gid=1674952052)] After adjustments, we estimate that in-line chlorination in Kenya reduces all-cause mortality by 11% in children under five and 2% in people five and over [[127](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1dxRfhPnTBJ_UYAeoAyVd8u6Orxh4pR9hB3wvdfZcXFs/edit?gid=1680005064#gid=1680005064)] We further estimate that development effects and medical costs averted account for 35% and 19% of the total benefit of the intervention, respectively.\n\nAt the time GiveWell recommended this grant, it projected that by the end of the 2nd year of the project (approximately September 2025), Evidence Action would have installed [655](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J49) ILC devices in Andhra Pradesh, which would reach an estimated [1,193,239](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=J51) total people. The expectation is that following the initial round of installations by Evidence Action, if successful, the government will install and maintain additional devices in the state. GiveWell estimated that the total number of devices would amount to [3,204](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M49) devices over the remainder of the period, reaching [5.8 million](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aRjyAdYGdZ6N1_AvEU50sj_-LpVTjoGoN_5JasR-uYI/edit?gid=1483841316#gid=1483841316&range=M51) people at the end of four years. GiveWell has not updated these estimates since the time of the grant decision.\n\nIn its internal forecasting, GiveWell has assigned a likelihood of 70% that the devices will indeed serve at least 5.8 million people at the end of four years, conditional on the program not being discontinued before that time.\n\nSee Also: \n\n- [Evidence Action — India In-Line Chlorination Pilot Expansion (July 2023)\n](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-india-ILC-pilot-expansion-july-2023)\n- [Evidence Action — Scale-Up of In-Line Chlorination in India (September 2023)](https://www.givewell.org/research/grants/evidence-action-in-line-chlorination-india-september-2023)" }, { "id": 28265, "title": "If Kamala Harris is elected president of the United States in 2024, will X be banned within 6 months?", "short_title": "X banned if Harris president?", "url_title": "X banned if Harris president?", "slug": "x-banned-if-harris-president", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-17T22:32:29.900022Z", "published_at": "2024-09-17T22:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.370501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-17T22:50:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-11T12:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-11T12:28:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T22:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28265, "title": "If Kamala Harris is elected president of the United States in 2024, will X be banned within 6 months?", "created_at": "2024-09-17T22:32:29.900022Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T22:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T23:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T23:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-11T12:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T12:28:52.522233Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-11T12:28:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 17, 2024, Elon Musk [retweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1836113736517431602) a tweet claiming that if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win the US presidential election, \"their first move\" will be to ban X (formerly Twitter). Musk has previously [endorsed Donald Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-says-he-fully-endorses-tough-trump-posts-photo-2024-07-13/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kamala Harris wins the 2024 US presidential election AND, before May 5, 2025, credible sources indicate that the US government has taken action, through an enacted law or executive order, with the effect that a typical US resident cannot do one or more of the following:\n\n- download the X mobile app from the Google Play Store\n\n- download the X mobile app from the iOS App Store\n\n- use the app if it was previously downloaded\n\n- access the X.com website\n\nIf Kamala Harris is elected AND a typical US resident can do all of the aforementioned, this question will resolve **No**.\n\nIf Kamala Harris is not elected US president, this question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve **Yes**, the media reporting must be in consensus that these effects are highly likely as the result of the law or executive order. These effects need not actually happen for the question to resolve **Yes**. Metaculus admin discretion may be used to resolve this question in the case of ambiguity.\n\nIf sources report that the law or executive order could be contested in the courts, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if, absent court challenges, it would satisfy the criteria described here.\n\nIf the X app can be downloaded via a technical circumvention that violates the app store terms of service or if the X.com website can be accessed via a technical circumvention of the ban (such as the use of a VPN), this will not affect the resolution of the question and the question can still resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 28265, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729479224.814334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729479224.814334, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.010757432451849694 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.149075220275083, 3.6879347337965678, 0.35268964264939523, 0.004140937860262326, 0.6145696694889957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5617338244238946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07741073985238849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030597622151664183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288159.259507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288159.259507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 17, 2024, Elon Musk [retweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1836113736517431602) a tweet claiming that if Kamala Harris and Tim Walz win the US presidential election, \"their first move\" will be to ban X (formerly Twitter). Musk has previously [endorsed Donald Trump](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/elon-musk-says-he-fully-endorses-tough-trump-posts-photo-2024-07-13/)." }, { "id": 28247, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Deadly Attack on Israel in Sep 2024?", "url_title": "Deadly Attack on Israel in Sep 2024?", "slug": "deadly-attack-on-israel-in-sep-2024", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-17T15:31:17.888620Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T22:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.546057Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T22:38:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T22:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28247, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will there be a deadly attack within Israel causing at least five deaths before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-17T15:31:17.888620Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T22:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T17:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)\n\nBy early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.\n\nWhilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:\n\n- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)\n- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)\n\nThe aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, \"tit-for-tat\" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.\n\nAmidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to \"Yes\" if before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five (5) individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve to \"Yes\":\n\n- Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the [Institute for the Study of War's map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n- The threshold of five (5) fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period.\n\nThese fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 28247, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727729696.050696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727729696.050696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05144749217042048 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.165745755357722, 2.948678792440075, 0.31964760159434596, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.10802413340346607, 0.3551836243544548, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.46568447843252453, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.14114485879589025, 0.016590897335947853, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43372423424900364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 26.199548574017623, "coverage": 0.9951404236678801, "baseline_score": 80.45072974357994, "spot_peer_score": 19.064227099811614, "peer_archived_score": 26.199548574017623, "baseline_archived_score": 80.45072974357994, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.064227099811614 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727729696.0937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727729696.0937, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983847587217298, 0.0016152412782701297 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 110, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Attacks on Israel have seen a significant resurgence since the [October 7 Attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) and the resulting [Israel-Hamas War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war), [Israel-Hezbollah Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hezbollah_conflict_(2023–present)), and [Israel-Houthi Conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_Sea_crisis)\n\nBy early 2024, the number of rocket attacks on Israel was estimated at over [10,000](https://www.terrorism-info.org.il/en/operation-iron-swords-updated-to-1-p-m-november-22-2023/). A similar rate of rocket attacks have continued to this day.\n\nWhilst Israel has excellent air and rocket defence capabilities, there have been incidents where attacks have penetrated it's defences, two notable examples are listed below:\n\n- [2024 Iranian strikes against Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel). (*No deaths reported*.)\n- [2024 Houthi drone attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Houthi_drone_attack_on_Israel). (*Single death reported*.)\n\nThe aforementioned attacks have typically resulted in, or have been, \"tit-for-tat\" retaliations. For example, prior to the Iranian strikes on Israel, the IDF carried out an airstrike on the Iranian consulate in Damascus. The IDF responded to the Iranian reltalation with [strikes on Isfahan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Israeli_strikes_on_Iran), but these were smaller in scale attacks, widely seen as an effort to deescalate tensions.\n\nAmidst the ongoing strikes exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah, reports emerged that more than 1,000 people – including Hezbollah fighters and medics – were [wounded on Tuesday, September 17](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/dozens-hezbollah-members-wounded-lebanon-when-pagers-exploded-sources-witnesses-2024-09-17/) when the pagers used to communicate exploded across Lebanon in what is likely seen as a serious escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah Conflict." }, { "id": 28245, "title": "Will the yield curve be inverted on Friday September 27, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-yield-curve-be-inverted-on-friday-september-27-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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According to the New York Times, Trump's 6 month lockup period is [scheduled to end](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/business/trump-media-stock-truth-social.html) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. According to Seeking Alpha, Trump [told a reporter](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149683-trump-media-jumps-25-as-former-president-suggests-he-wont-sell-shares) at a press conference that he was not prepared to start selling shares, causing the stock price to jump in reaction to that statement. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on October 1, 2024, there is a Form 4 posted at [this](https://ir.tmtgcorp.com/financials/sec-filings/) SEC filings page for Trump Media & Technology Group Corp., dated after the launch of this question, revealing that former President Donald Trump has made any disposals of his derivative securities in the company. If there is no such Form 4 filing on that page, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Please note for example that the resolution link is not the SEC EDGAR database, so forecasters who believe there is a material chance that Trump Media's investor relations page will not be timely updated should forecast accordingly.", "post_id": 28243, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726668989.497372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.395 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726668989.497372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.395 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3052867796813419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 1.4059255728668238, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21486450400165266, 0.0, 0.4379819334420586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.060493860373756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9134389029481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3844015774009883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726668989.53694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726668989.53694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8803958489374394, 0.11960415106256062 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Trump Media & Technology Group owns Truth Social, and Former President Donald Trump currently owns 36 million shares of the company, according to the most recent [Form 4 filing](https://s3.amazonaws.com/sec.irpass.cc/2660/0001474506-24-000146.htm) with his name on it. According to the New York Times, Trump's 6 month lockup period is [scheduled to end](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/13/business/trump-media-stock-truth-social.html) on Thursday, September 19, 2024. According to Seeking Alpha, Trump [told a reporter](https://seekingalpha.com/news/4149683-trump-media-jumps-25-as-former-president-suggests-he-wont-sell-shares) at a press conference that he was not prepared to start selling shares, causing the stock price to jump in reaction to that statement. " }, { "id": 28237, "title": "Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?", "short_title": "Sudan Food Security During 2024 Harvest", "url_title": "Sudan Food Security During 2024 Harvest", "slug": "sudan-food-security-during-2024-harvest", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-17T09:09:45.370975Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.547256Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T09:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28237, "title": "Will the overall population in Sudan facing high acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) decrease to under 20 million by February 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-17T09:09:45.370975Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T09:10:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T09:10:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T09:10:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-03-10T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-03-01T09:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-01T09:52:16.625939Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-28T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sudan has experienced a rapid deterioration in food security due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic shocks. According to the [IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157066/?iso3=SDN), 25.6 million people (54% of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between June and September 2024. Although the harvest season from October 2024 to February 2025 is expected to slightly improve food availability and stabilize prices, the magnitude of food insecurity is still projected to remain significant, with an estimated 21.1 million people at risk of IPC Phase 3 or above. This question focuses on whether the situation will improve enough to bring the number of people facing high acute food insecurity below 20 million by the end of the 2024 harvest season.", "resolution_criteria": "Yes: Official IPC or similar credible reports confirm that fewer than 20 million people are in IPC Phase 3 or above during the period of October 2024 - February 2025.\n\nNo: More than 20 million people are reported in IPC Phase 3 or above during this period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28237, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740693026.760163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740693026.760163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04876990461554759 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.1963505280436655, 0.6643928047021255, 0.876931883579203, 1.6743432256833377, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 45.07671949333001, "peer_score": 0.9944255872450036, "coverage": 0.9992962053020037, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9992962053020037, "spot_peer_score": 0.0010014470910697324, "spot_baseline_score": 33.799646351501586, "baseline_archived_score": 45.07671949333001, "peer_archived_score": 0.9944255872450036, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0010014470910697324, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.799646351501586 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289633.69085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289633.69085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7808513022184786, 0.21914869778152132 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sudan has experienced a rapid deterioration in food security due to ongoing conflict, displacement, and economic shocks. According to the [IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis](https://www.ipcinfo.org/ipc-country-analysis/details-map/en/c/1157066/?iso3=SDN), 25.6 million people (54% of the population) faced high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3 or above) between June and September 2024. Although the harvest season from October 2024 to February 2025 is expected to slightly improve food availability and stabilize prices, the magnitude of food insecurity is still projected to remain significant, with an estimated 21.1 million people at risk of IPC Phase 3 or above. This question focuses on whether the situation will improve enough to bring the number of people facing high acute food insecurity below 20 million by the end of the 2024 harvest season." }, { "id": 28235, "title": "Will Tibet Drive roadway repairs be completed on time? (120 days)", "short_title": "Tibet Drive roadway repairs", "url_title": "Tibet Drive roadway repairs", "slug": "tibet-drive-roadway-repairs", "author_id": 209468, "author_username": "Breezer54", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-17T01:36:52.090901Z", "published_at": "2024-09-17T01:36:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.447606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-17T01:37:03Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-17T01:36:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3623, "name": "The City of Gulf Breeze, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "gulfbreeze", "description": "This page is for residents of <a href=\"https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/\">Gulf Breeze</a>, FL and focuses on forecasting local events, trends, and challenges affecting our coastal community. It covers topics such as hurricane impact predictions, economic development, environmental changes, and public policy shifts. \r\n\r\nAnyone is welcome to forecast, but I would especially like to see forecasts by GB residents! Want to add a question? <a href=\"mailto: b59612345@gmail.com\r\n\">Email me</a>!", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_8.07.43PM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/us-flgbr.gif", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ], "default_project": { "id": 3623, "name": "The City of Gulf Breeze, Florida", "type": "community", "slug": "gulfbreeze", "description": "This page is for residents of <a href=\"https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/\">Gulf Breeze</a>, FL and focuses on forecasting local events, trends, and challenges affecting our coastal community. It covers topics such as hurricane impact predictions, economic development, environmental changes, and public policy shifts. \r\n\r\nAnyone is welcome to forecast, but I would especially like to see forecasts by GB residents! Want to add a question? <a href=\"mailto: b59612345@gmail.com\r\n\">Email me</a>!", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-09-16_at_8.07.43PM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/us-flgbr.gif", "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } }, "question": { "id": 28235, "title": "Will Tibet Drive roadway repairs be completed on time? (120 days)", "created_at": "2024-09-17T01:36:52.090901Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T01:36:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T01:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T01:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-14T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Repairs started September 16, 2024. 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Weather permitting work is expected to be completed in 120 days." }, { "id": 28234, "title": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Large tech company layoffs this month?", "url_title": "Large tech company layoffs this month?", "slug": "large-tech-company-layoffs-this-month", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T23:57:04.947001Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.054997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28234, "title": "Will any of these large tech companies announce layoffs before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T23:57:04.947001Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:\n\nOn September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.\n\nApple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division. \n\nGoogle had layoff events in January, April, May, and June. \n\nIBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)\n\nMeta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.\n\nNvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).\n \nOracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024. \n\nSalesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.\n\nTesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker *A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs*, which currently can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/12/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), one of the following listed companies has layoffs in September 2024:\n\n- Amazon \n- Apple\n- Google or Alphabet\n- IBM\n- Meta or Facebook\n- Nvidia \n- Oracle\n- Salesforce\n- Tesla\n\nIf no layoff event is listed under the September 2024 section for any of the above companies, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. \n\nIf on October 1, 2024, the time stamp on the resolution source is not September 30, 2024 or later, resolution will wait until up to October 7, 2024, for the entire month of September to be shown. If on October 7, 2024 the time stamp is not September 30, 2024 or later, this question resolves based on what is displayed at the resolution source at the time. \n\nIn order to count, the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, if there is a layoff event at Waymo, it will not count for purposes of this question unless the subheading mentions Alphabet or Google, even though Waymo is owned by Alphabet.\n\nTech Crunch's layoffs tracker dynamically updates its URL based on the last update. This question resolves based on the most recent version of the page that encompasses the month of September through September 30.", "post_id": 28234, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727624358.329508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727624358.329508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 57, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02333156516535679 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9918664771392256, 7.588355377885596, 0.9672835572779389, 0.8006118528797161, 0.0, 1.3014028502943646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23059971548004934, 0.0780945946412779, 0.26631371648600644, 0.03249305809127576, 0.05144413896398135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0928631009331482, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014505757420011789, 0.008902640948057735, 0.04113337300434987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10452470613861276, 0.012431064033118435, 0.0105689540850258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014303523946117215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0060946454249203655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004923348169013251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.802071857571057, "coverage": 0.9999881286263389, "baseline_score": 64.58671870361273, "spot_peer_score": 22.728214033034092, "peer_archived_score": 16.802071857571057, "baseline_archived_score": 64.58671870361273, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.728214033034092 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727624358.375021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727624358.375021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9989555999747611, 0.001044400025238856 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 251, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Layoffs at some of the largest, most successful tech companies have [become all-too-common](https://www.vox.com/money/23691406/layoffs-history-job-insecurity-corporate-downsizing-q-a) in recent months and years, in a [layoff wave](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/02/03/tech-layoffs-us-economy-google-microsoft/) that began in 2022. Some context on the companies listed in this question is as follows:\n\nOn September 16, 2024, Amazon [ordered](https://nypost.com/2024/09/16/business/amazon-orders-employees-to-return-to-the-office-5-days-a-week/) its workers back into the office five days a week and warned of restructurings. In 2024 TechCrunch (TC) listed layoff events in January and February.\n\nApple had layoff events listed by TC in February, April and August 2024. The August event [involved](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/28/24230344/apple-job-layoffs-books-news-apps-digital-services) workers across its books and news apps in its digital services division. \n\nGoogle had layoff events in January, April, May, and June. \n\nIBM slashed jobs in March, according to TC. IBM additionally has one of the most active rumor boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/international-business-machines)\n\nMeta/Facebook has no listings for 2024 according to TC, though had mass layoff events in 2022 and 2023.\n\nNvidia famously [eschews layoffs](https://www.indiatimes.com/worth/news/torture-them-into-greatness-nvidia-ceo-jensen-huang-doesnt-believe-in-firing-employees-636165.html) though recently has experienced [delays in shipments](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/05/business/nvidia-stocks.html) of its newest AI chips, following a recent [hiring binge](https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/booming-stock-and-sky-high-pay-nvidia-is-silicon-valleys-hot-employer-e4fb6c20).\n \nOracle has one of the most active layoff boards at [TheLayoff dot com](https://www.thelayoff.com/oracle) but has not yet had layoff events listed by TC in 2024. \n\nSalesforce had layoff events listed by TC in January and July 2024 and was recently added to the most active boards at TheLayOff.com.\n\nTesla had multiple layoff events listed by TC in April 2024, when it [slashed](https://www.wsj.com/tech/tesla-layoffs-elon-musk-email-29388d4e?mod=article_inline) more than 10% of its workforce." }, { "id": 28229, "title": "Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?", "short_title": "Will the VP become president before 2029?", "url_title": "Will the VP become president before 2029?", "slug": "will-the-vp-become-president-before-2029", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T19:08:27.944914Z", "published_at": "2024-10-08T13:08:44.041839Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T00:51:10.335779Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-08T13:08:44.041837Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-10T13:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28229, "title": "Will the Vice President be sworn in as President after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T19:08:27.944914Z", "open_time": "2024-10-10T13:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-11-05T14:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-11-05T14:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-14T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The U.S. Constitution [outlines the process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Clause_6:_Vacancy_and_disability) for vice presidential succession to the presidency, if the President is unable or unsuitable to fulfil their duties.\n\nThe Vice President has become President 9 times in US History: \n\n\t1.\tJohn Tyler (1841) – After the death of William Henry Harrison.\n\t2.\tMillard Fillmore (1850) – After the death of Zachary Taylor.\n\t3.\tAndrew Johnson (1865) – After the assassination of Abraham Lincoln.\n\t4.\tChester A. Arthur (1881) – After the assassination of James Garfield.\n\t5.\tTheodore Roosevelt (1901) – After the assassination of William McKinley.\n\t6.\tCalvin Coolidge (1923) – After the death of Warren G. Harding.\n\t7.\tHarry S. Truman (1945) – After the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt.\n\t8.\tLyndon B. Johnson (1963) – After the assassination of John F. Kennedy.\n\t9.\tGerald Ford (1974) – After the resignation of Richard Nixon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any individual serving as Vice President of the United States after January 21, 2025 and before January 14, 2029 is officially sworn in as President during this time frame. This includes scenarios such as the Vice President taking the oath of office due to resignation, impeachment, incapacity, or death of the sitting President, or any other lawful transfer of power.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the Vice President is not sworn in as President during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "- If there is ambiguity regarding the Vice President's swearing-in as President, resolution may be delayed for up to 30 days. If, 30 days after the purported swearing-in, unresolved legal challenges to the legitimacy of the Vice President's assumption of the presidency remain in federal courts, this question will resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\n- The Vice President becoming only the Acting President, this will not be enough for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 28229, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762476659.21069, "end_time": 1764350771.741267, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762476659.21069, "end_time": 1764350771.741267, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.27321485402939566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.38115765657052464, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2403700099395794, 0.6646627317794116, 0.0, 0.18841271577087762, 0.0, 0.14006392172911664, 0.3945784676357824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.4009934526615252, 0.06594039540813919, 0.2168121871892493, 1.3845664509519524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7693696363110782, 0.11154325242011573, 0.0, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4359277329883062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7852188658668618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.1821103712990916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02075297689962095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The U.S. Constitution [outlines the process](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Article_Two_of_the_United_States_Constitution#Clause_6:_Vacancy_and_disability) for vice presidential succession to the presidency, if the President is unable or unsuitable to fulfil their duties.\n\nThe Vice President has become President 9 times in US History: \n\n\t1.\tJohn Tyler (1841) – After the death of William Henry Harrison.\n\t2.\tMillard Fillmore (1850) – After the death of Zachary Taylor.\n\t3.\tAndrew Johnson (1865) – After the assassination of Abraham Lincoln.\n\t4.\tChester A. Arthur (1881) – After the assassination of James Garfield.\n\t5.\tTheodore Roosevelt (1901) – After the assassination of William McKinley.\n\t6.\tCalvin Coolidge (1923) – After the death of Warren G. Harding.\n\t7.\tHarry S. Truman (1945) – After the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt.\n\t8.\tLyndon B. Johnson (1963) – After the assassination of John F. Kennedy.\n\t9.\tGerald Ford (1974) – After the resignation of Richard Nixon." }, { "id": 28210, "title": "Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-llama-model-be-ranked-1-overall-on-the-lmsys-chatbot-arena-leaderboard-at-the-end-of-the-3rd-quarter-of-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:30.378420Z", "published_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.538093Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28210, "title": "Will a Llama model be ranked #1 overall on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of the 3rd Quarter of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:30.378420Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T13:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for sixth, specifically through model \"llama-3.1-405b-instruct\". ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"llama\" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28210, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583307.57654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583307.57654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.20786663898956237 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.32043076449177554, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7886744241332062, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 1.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.4601255596338988, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.649329888337202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583307.603964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583307.603964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8990189389762353, 0.10098106102376467 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked in a tie for sixth, specifically through model \"llama-3.1-405b-instruct\". 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a model name containing \"chatgpt\" is in the number 1 overall rank at the [LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) when accessed by Metaculus on or after October 1, 2024. If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28206, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583389.506972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.737 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583389.506972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.737 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.7706736118561124 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.7202819150040476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 1.7555927825090736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 1.0, 1.3563020167211624, 0.0, 0.35250077814618447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8720104955769312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.505856398089031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726583389.538322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726583389.538322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30463287138674466, 0.6953671286132553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 15, 2024, this was ranked first, specifically with model \"chatgpt-4o-latest\". 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The work stoppage involving 33,000 machinists will not disrupt commercial flights immediately but was expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling airliners, presenting another setback for a company already dealing with a damaged reputation and financial losses.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there are no reports on the Associated Press's [Strike Hub](https://apnews.com/hub/strikes) that Boeing's aircraft assembly workers have ended their strike before October 1, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus. Conversely, if there is a report on that specific portal that Boeing's workers have ended their strike, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered. Therefore, if forecasters believe that the Associated Press may not timely update its Strike Hub portal in the event of the strike ending, they should forecast accordingly. Similarly, if the Strikes Hub page is unavailable on October 1, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on what is shown), until October 8, 2024, at which point this question will resolve as No. For purposes of this question, no resolution source will resolve as No rather than annullment of the question.", "post_id": 28205, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582582.281463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582582.281463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.675 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32499999999999996, 0.675 ], "means": [ 0.6203792700379469 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7678285137156861, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988353564213517, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8438000268297587, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 43.29594072761063, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 43.29594072761063 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582582.321153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582582.321153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39575042712652697, 0.604249572873473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the AP on [September 13, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/boeing-strike-machinists-contract-9f61a7d48675d1c3517233d40d4ec2b1), \"Aircraft assembly workers went on strike Friday at Boeing factories in Washington, Oregon and California after union members overwhelmingly rejected a tentative contract that would have increased wages by 25% over four years. The work stoppage involving 33,000 machinists will not disrupt commercial flights immediately but was expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling airliners, presenting another setback for a company already dealing with a damaged reputation and financial losses.\"" }, { "id": 28204, "title": "Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-chicago-white-sox-lose-124-games-in-the-2024-mlb-season-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:28.978055Z", "published_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.075830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28204, "title": "Will the Chicago White Sox lose 124 games in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-16T12:44:28.978055Z", "open_time": "2024-09-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.", "resolution_criteria": "The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by the Major League Baseball standings at [this link](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 124 losses for the 2024 season, this question resolves as Yes. Under 120 resolves as No.", "fine_print": "No other sources will be considered for this question. Admins will resolve based on the number supplied by MLB on October 1, 2024.", "post_id": 28204, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582604.474301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582604.474301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11599999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.557231655054655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7251988302965541, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6640427727672698, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.05640008981082201, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9316293524480549, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.7835390257683923, 0.0, 0.3002647972598317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726582604.517063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726582604.517063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4387409831706035, 0.5612590168293965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context." }, { "id": 28164, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "short_title": "Dem leaders on Lex Fridman pod?", "url_title": "Dem leaders on Lex Fridman pod?", "slug": "dem-leaders-on-lex-fridman-pod", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-14T20:38:18.905005Z", "published_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.918708Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28164, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will any of these prominent Democrats appear as guests on the Lex Fridman podcast?", "created_at": "2024-09-14T20:38:18.905005Z", "open_time": "2024-09-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).\n\nOn September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):\n\n>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris\n>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />\n>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />\n>- [at]BarackObama<br />\n>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />\n>- [at]BernieSanders<br />\n>- [at]AOC\n\n>I think we can have amazing conversations!\n\n>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.\n\n>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤\n\n>DM's are open! 🙏", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, any of the following individuals appears on the Lex Fridman podcast, listed on the [Podcast Episodes Page](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) (with the person's name appearing in red under the episode title) in an episode more recent than episode #443:\n\n- Kamala Harris\n- Tim Walz\n- Barack Obama\n- Hillary Clinton\n- Bernie Sanders\n- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez\n\nIf this event does not occur before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Appears\" is defined simply as the individual's name appearing in red under the episode title on the resolution page, which will mean that other factors such as the length or nature of the person's appearance on the Lex Fridman podcast will be irrelevant for purposes of this question.", "post_id": 28164, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727709543.954609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727709543.954609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0030008644067595182 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.624785796962898, 1.9258323665915962, 0.001339079145820899, 0.10774933561984733, 0.0, 0.06857868966727151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00934573011678523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.7507237298916465, "coverage": 0.9999917758934054, "baseline_score": 92.34247585717392, "spot_peer_score": 5.652384119854204, "peer_archived_score": 2.7507237298916465, "baseline_archived_score": 92.34247585717392, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.652384119854204 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727709543.999824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727709543.999824, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lex Fridman's podcast [is ranked](https://chartable.com/podcasts/artificial-intelligence-1434243584) #2 in the United States in the Technology category according to Apple and #61 overall. Recently he has been notable for his [interviews](https://lexfridman.com/podcast/) with Donald Trump, Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and Benjamin Netanyahu. His episode with Trump for example got 4.8 million views [on Youtube](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qCbfTN-caFI).\n\nOn September 4, 2024, Fridman [tweeted](https://x.com/lexfridman/status/1831515121819987998):\n\n>I would love to do a podcast with [at]KamalaHarris\n>and other leading voices in the Democratic party including:<br />\n>- [at]GovTimWalz <br />\n>- [at]BarackObama<br />\n>- [at]HillaryClinton<br />\n>- [at]BernieSanders<br />\n>- [at]AOC\n\n>I think we can have amazing conversations!\n\n>I don't do gotcha-journalism, just a good-faith chat about life, philosophy, and ideas that hopefully helps reveal our common humanity.\n\n>It'll be fun, and great for everyone! ❤\n\n>DM's are open! 🙏" }, { "id": 28156, "title": "Will the USDA's recall of Boar's Head deli meat be closed before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usdas-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meat-be-closed-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.779112Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.821559Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) of Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc., is changed from Active to Closed when [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) is accessed by Metaculus after September 30, 2024. 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The company recalled its liverwurst late in July. Days later, Boar’s Head expanded the recall to cover more than 3,500 tons of meat — including ham and other items made in the Jarratt facility, one of several it operates. Production at the meat processing center in a rural part of the state has been temporarily stopped. Boar’s Head said it was disinfecting the plant and trying to determine the cause of the suspected contamination. Nine elderly people have died and dozens were hospitalized in the worst listeria outbreak in years. Public health experts have expressed worry that those numbers could increase, because symptoms can emerge weeks later. They also noted that consumers might not be aware of the recall, and some of the products do not expire until October.\"" }, { "id": 28155, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-comex-gold-spot-prices-exceed-2700-per-ounce-before-october-1-2024-according-to-yahoo-finance", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.620921Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.684509Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28155, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?", "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.620921Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 12, 2024, gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,591.30 amid news of possible interest rate cuts and increased risks of recession and a weakening labor market, with seasonally-adjusted jobless claims going up last week to 230,000, an increase of 2,000.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price for gold spot prices exceeds $2,700 for any day before October 1, 2024, according to [this](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/history/) Yahoo Finance link. 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