Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2460
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"2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26236, "title": "Will at least 24 world records be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.958714Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the last three Summer Olympics, the number of world records broken was:\n\nLondon 2012: 32\nRio de Janeiro 2016: 23\nTokyo 2020: 27\n\nIn '24, will 24 or more records be broken?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of world records broken during the Paris Olympics is 24 or greater.", "fine_print": "If the record for the same event is broken more than once - for example, in the qualifying and final - both records count.\n\nSome sports like rowing have conditions that are inherently not fully reproducible between different Games; these are not listed as having \"world records\" but \"world bests\", and do not 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null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398542.356575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3911508480135367, 0.6088491519864633 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the last three Summer Olympics, the number of world records broken was:\n\nLondon 2012: 32\nRio de Janeiro 2016: 23\nTokyo 2020: 27\n\nIn '24, will 24 or more records be broken?" }, { "id": 26235, "title": "Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-warren-buffett-indicator-exceed-200-before-september-17-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], 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"tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26235, "title": "Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.723940Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T12:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T12:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T12:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 17, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 200%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 200%, this question resolves as No.\n\nThe figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of July 10, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 196.20375072862052 for July 8, 2024. ", "fine_print": "The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 200% only if it reaches a value of 200.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 200 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 199.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 200%.\n\nIn cases in which the chart might show 200.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 200.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.\n\nIf the numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until September 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers. \n\nIf the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be annulled.\n", "post_id": 26235, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398560.230559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398560.230559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5317357559603306 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029667882745790925, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.5594539150498965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 1.8366918011851052, 0.9586070755525017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03953741910202119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5618960001688528, 0.0, 0.284035370460909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9890374842321833 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398560.261791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398560.261791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5858317913679953, 0.4141682086320046 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 122, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator." }, { "id": 26234, "title": "Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-an-avian-influenza-virus-in-humans-be-declared-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern-by-the-world-health-organization-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.491898Z", "published_at": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.780489Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 125, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26234, "title": "Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.491898Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "An outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Type A, subtype H5N1 was [reported in dairy cattle](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) for the first time on March 25, 2024 in the United States by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and soon thereafter a human tested positive for H5N1 which was [announced by the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) April 1, 2024.\n\nWith this recent jump to an abundant mammal like cattle, [there is concern](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148696) that further evolution in the virus could result in it becoming easily transmittable between humans, a scenario that could result in a pandemic of the virus. This sort of zoonotic origin pandemic is not unprecedented, of course [COVID-19 is believed to have made the jump from pangolins to humans](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9874793/) and in a much more similar scenario, the [2009 H1N1 pandemic](https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm) was caused by a virus similar to what was detected circulating in pigs, earning it the nickname “Swine Flu”. Both of these were declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization, with the H1N1 outbreak being declared a [PHEIC on April 25, 2009](https://web.archive.org/web/20090502155343/http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090425/en/) and COVID-19 declared a [PHEIC on January 30, 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-%282019-ncov%29). If an HPAI virus were to evolve to spread in sustained human-to-human transmission and become an outbreak, then there would be reason for the WHO to declare it a PHEIC.\n\nSuch a declaration would be a milestone prior to the the outbreak being considered a pandemic, as we saw with H1N1 and COVID-19.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, prior to Sept 30, 2024, an outbreak of a virus classified as a “Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza” presenting in humans is declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization. If this PHEIC declaration does not happen prior to Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves as No.", "fine_print": "- A PHEIC must be declared and is verifiable through common communication channels of the WHO such as its website or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)\n- Any type or subtype of Avian influenza is acceptable to meet this criteria, such as H5N1 or H7N9. \n- The PHEIC must be declared as a result of a human outbreak, not in response to an animal outbreak of the virus or the effects of the virus spreading in non-human species (i.e. shortages of food).\n- Sustained human-to-human transmission is not necessarily a requirement to resolve this question as a Yes.\n- Declarations by the CDC or other health organizations are not acceptable to resolve as a Yes.", "post_id": 26234, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398579.424176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398579.424176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3366497943156127 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.30865936149406803, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.7610237892948524, 0.18125574861973415, 0.046071256587532805, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0252612621276318, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 1.530196466158317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08889626536295236, 0.0, 1.9637615176313634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2208611880313896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.060578462747017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398579.45713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398579.45713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7660967743304592, 0.2339032256695408 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "An outbreak of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI), Type A, subtype H5N1 was [reported in dairy cattle](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) for the first time on March 25, 2024 in the United States by the Center for Disease Control (CDC), and soon thereafter a human tested positive for H5N1 which was [announced by the CDC](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) April 1, 2024.\n\nWith this recent jump to an abundant mammal like cattle, [there is concern](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148696) that further evolution in the virus could result in it becoming easily transmittable between humans, a scenario that could result in a pandemic of the virus. This sort of zoonotic origin pandemic is not unprecedented, of course [COVID-19 is believed to have made the jump from pangolins to humans](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9874793/) and in a much more similar scenario, the [2009 H1N1 pandemic](https://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/information_h1n1_virus_qa.htm) was caused by a virus similar to what was detected circulating in pigs, earning it the nickname “Swine Flu”. Both of these were declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization, with the H1N1 outbreak being declared a [PHEIC on April 25, 2009](https://web.archive.org/web/20090502155343/http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/statements/2009/h1n1_20090425/en/) and COVID-19 declared a [PHEIC on January 30, 2020](https://web.archive.org/web/20210815071616/https://www.who.int/news/item/30-01-2020-statement-on-the-second-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-%282005%29-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-%282019-ncov%29). If an HPAI virus were to evolve to spread in sustained human-to-human transmission and become an outbreak, then there would be reason for the WHO to declare it a PHEIC.\n\nSuch a declaration would be a milestone prior to the the outbreak being considered a pandemic, as we saw with H1N1 and COVID-19." }, { "id": 26233, "title": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-domestic-box-office-opening-of-deadpool-wolverine-be-higher-than-that-of-deadpool-and-the-wolverine-combined", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.217584Z", "published_at": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.668729Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 115, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26233, "title": "Will the domestic box office opening of \"Deadpool & Wolverine\" be higher than that of \"Deadpool\" and \"The Wolverine\" combined?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:30.217584Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Deadpool & Wolverine** is an upcoming blockbuster by Marvel Studios scheduled to be released on July 26, 2024 featuring the two iconic heroes from the X-Men Universe.\n\nThe recent projection from Deadline puts the domestic opening to [$160-$165 million](https://deadline.com/2024/07/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-opening-projection-1236000799/), which would not only be the best opening year-to-date (beating **Inside Out 2** with $154 million) but also a record start for an R-rated movie. \n\nAnother projection from June was even higher, [at $200+ million](https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/).\n\nThe ticket seller Fandango [reported on May 21](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/deadpool-and-wolverine-has-strongest-day-one-ticket-pre-sales-in-franchise-history-at-fandango/1100-6523599/) that their ticket pre-sales for the movie were the site's biggest ones in 2024 up to date.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the domestic box office opening for the **Deadpool & Wolverine** reported by Boxofficemojo on the [movie's page](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6263850/?ref_=bo_se_r_1) is higher than $185,548,391 which is the sum of the box openings for **Deadpool** (2016) and **The Wolverine** (2013): $132,434,639 + $53,113,752.", "fine_print": "Metaculus admins may wait additional time or use another resolution source if there are reasons to doubt the data on the Boxofficemojo page.\n\nIf the movie is not released in the US until 26 August 2024 the question will become **annulled**.", "post_id": 26233, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398314.104371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398314.104371, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.771695866866593 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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year-to-date (beating **Inside Out 2** with $154 million) but also a record start for an R-rated movie. \n\nAnother projection from June was even higher, [at $200+ million](https://deadline.com/2024/06/deadpool-wolverine-box-office-projection-1235973545/).\n\nThe ticket seller Fandango [reported on May 21](https://www.gamespot.com/articles/deadpool-and-wolverine-has-strongest-day-one-ticket-pre-sales-in-franchise-history-at-fandango/1100-6523599/) that their ticket pre-sales for the movie were the site's biggest ones in 2024 up to date." }, { "id": 26232, "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-government-end-its-agreement-directly-allowing-verisign-to-manage-the-authoritative-domain-name-registry-for-the-com-tld-before-august-3-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", 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"created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26232, "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:34:29.851788Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T16:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T16:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-05T16:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Sunsets\" is defined as the DOC choosing to let the agreement expire without renewal.\n\n\"Terminates\" is defined as the DOC providing written notice of non-renewal \nof the agreement with Verisign.", "post_id": 26232, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398605.106489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398605.106489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2109102639683738 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.20179976200815308, 0.0, 0.3066263847585546, 0.080917342808261, 0.2294539435535619, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 1.0266826094249306, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.6573790064843125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.260422999597134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2368847303185118, 0.0, 1.6718715047072998, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721398605.13892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721398605.13892, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8747039777641921, 0.12529602223580796 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition." }, { "id": 26216, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-sept-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:26.898626Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.583964Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26216, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:26.898626Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T11:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-15T11:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before Sept 15, 2024, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26216, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312932.352538, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312932.352538, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.392273815334424 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5639223720695624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8777586015056795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2766702070460438, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2123477203031603, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48559628734755933, 1.1938941746768768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0386969701126, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.585584538459839, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6306548926675399, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3674510410056735, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312932.381917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312932.381917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8037940759949841, 0.1962059240050159 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***" }, { "id": 26215, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-as-an-act-of-war-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:26.686775Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.620736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26215, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:26.686775Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \n\nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is any nuclear detonation as an act of war between January 1, 2020 and Sept 30, 2024. Resolution will be by credible media reports. The detonation must be deliberate; accidental, inadvertent, or testing/peaceful detonations will not qualify (see fine print). Attacks using strategic and tactical nuclear weapons are both sufficient to qualify.", "fine_print": "[Barrett et al. 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) defined terms to distinguish between causes of nuclear detonations:\n\n>In an accidental or unauthorized launch or detonation, system safeguards or procedures to maintain control over nuclear weapons fail in such a way that a nuclear weapon or missile launches or explodes without direction from leaders.\n\n>In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack.\n\n>In a deliberate detonation, the attacking nation decides to launch one or more nuclear weapons either in response to a genuine nuclear attack or without believing that it is under nuclear attack.", "post_id": 26215, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312154.432733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.035 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312154.432733, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.035 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.965, 0.035 ], "means": [ 0.08187889695926999 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04978706836786394, 1.4437662634114579, 2.4049667767307445, 1.9261825987737682, 0.010195728329581903, 2.363584221584008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909940002607419, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 94.86008474933556, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.86008474933556 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312154.482424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312154.482424, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9586475894191147, 0.04135241058088529 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the last 75 years, two nuclear weapons have been detonated as an act of war; the [bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in 1945, at the end of WWII. Despite tensions being high between the US and the USSR during the Cold War, and [several close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_nuclear_close_calls), there have been no additional nuclear weapons detonated as acts of war. \n\nCurrently, estimated nuclear weapon stockpiles are 15,000 warheads worldwide, mostly in the US and Russia, and there are eight or nine states that possess nuclear weapons (China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and [Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel) which remains officially ambiguous). The use of these nuclear weapons [could be catastrophic](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1494/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-be-due-to-nuclear-war/)." }, { "id": 26214, "title": "Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-extent-of-the-h5n1-outbreak-in-dairy-cows-on-sept-30-2024-be-between-200-and-300-herds", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:26.213489Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.962727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26214, "title": "Will the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows on Sept 30, 2024, be between 200 and 300 herds?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:26.213489Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.\n\nOn April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows according to CDC's [Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on Oct 1, 2024, exceeds 200 and is less than 300 dairy herds affected.", "fine_print": "* If Metaculus assesses that the CDC page or a similar CDC page in a different location has not received necessary updates (as opposed to not being updated to a lack of additional H5N1 cases) within the past seven days the resolution may instead be based on [information provided by the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) or other credible sources, if available. If Metaculus assesses that up-to-date information (of a similar methodology to that presented by CDC as of May 15, 2024) is not available the questions will be **annulled**.\n* Metaculus will defer to the methodology presented on the CDC page when resolving, though if multiple methodologies are available (such as distinguishing suspected outbreaks from confirmed outbreaks) the question will resolve based on the methodology Metaculus assesses to be most similar to that used on May 15, 2024. 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The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.\n\nOn April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows according to CDC's [Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on Oct 1, 2024, is less than 300 dairy herds affected. 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The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.\n\nOn April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the extent of the H5N1 outbreak in dairy cows according to CDC's [Current H5N1 Bird Flu Situation in Dairy Cows](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/mammals.html?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) when accessed by Metaculus on Oct 1, 2024, exceeds 200 dairy herds affected. If the number is 200 or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* If Metaculus assesses that the CDC page or a similar CDC page in a different location has not received necessary updates (as opposed to not being updated to a lack of additional H5N1 cases) within the past seven days the resolution may instead be based on [information provided by the USDA](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) or other credible sources, if available. If Metaculus assesses that up-to-date information (of a similar methodology to that presented by CDC as of May 15, 2024) is not available the questions will be **annulled**.\n* Metaculus will defer to the methodology presented on the CDC page when resolving, though if multiple methodologies are available (such as distinguishing suspected outbreaks from confirmed outbreaks) the question will resolve based on the methodology Metaculus assesses to be most similar to that used on May 15, 2024. According to the [USDA page](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/livestock) the information shown as of May 15 is based on confirmed cases.", "post_id": 26212, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312172.874324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312172.874324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6706798617144364 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23173416176548103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5763187996874088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3229231934103063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.02168896019109956, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 2.2621257466599465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46963211929942855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312172.929012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312172.929012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.421068806270518, 0.578931193729482 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 25, 2024, the USDA [reported](https://www.aphis.usda.gov/news/agency-announcements/federal-state-veterinary-public-health-agencies-share-update-hpai) an outbreak of H5N1 avian influenza in dairy cows in Kansas, Texas, and New Mexico. The outbreak has since spread, with CDC and USDA [reporting](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/mammals.htm) infected cattle in nine states and affecting 46 herds as of May 15, 2024.\n\nOn April 25, 2024, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) [announced](https://www.fda.gov/food/alerts-advisories-safety-information/updates-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-hpai) that it had conducted tests of retail milk and found one in five of the samples contained highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viral fragments. In an April 26 update the FDA described testing 297 retail dairy samples from 38 states, and in a subsequent update on May 10 confirmed the results of final egg inoculation tests showing that none of the HPAI H5N1 virus samples were viable." }, { "id": 26211, "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-olympic-record-for-the-mens-pole-vault-be-broken-at-the-2024-paris-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:25.645833Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.103646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26211, "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:25.645833Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T00:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-06T00:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record has risen to 6.24m, set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games, will his record be broken Duplantis or another competitor?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the winning height of the men's pole vault at the 2024 Paris Olympics is 6.04m or higher.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26211, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312186.362502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312186.362502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7479481493340802 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5910481986810528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.9512348372797166, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37687258454555433, 0.7399642353984384, 0.6650883542974395, 0.28697040130296847, 0.20427029069544175, 0.080917342808261, 0.25059984701556065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9735871455350873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7117790660511583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.7776146866308002, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312186.396576, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312186.396576, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34481392334160776, 0.6551860766583922 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record has risen to 6.24m, set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games, will his record be broken Duplantis or another competitor?" }, { "id": 26210, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:25.381134Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.088117Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26210, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T18:08:25.381134Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-18T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26210, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312278.935957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312278.935957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2878294664177267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.31964760159434596, 0.4809786573605918, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27036328102530793, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.04136994682833595, 0.43563441074387765, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3230335115248, 0.4141403307200923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.9981544715324268, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7806712951427212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721312278.971952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721312278.971952, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8252498929748814, 0.17475010702511862 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved." }, { "id": 26196, "title": "On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-sept-30-2024-will-more-than-200-and-less-than-or-equal-to-300-measles-cases-have-been-reported-in-the-united-states-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:15.024144Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.116191Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-04T17:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-04T17:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26196, "title": "On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 200 and less than or equal to 300 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:15.024144Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-04T17:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-04T17:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-04T17:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. 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The first presidential debate was widely considered a [debacle](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html) for Biden, leading some to speculate on whether there will be a second debate", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a debate which includes the Republican and Democratic nominees for President of the United States as participants takes place on September 10, 2024, as is [currently scheduled](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-is-second-presidential-debate-2024/) for 9 PM Eastern Time on that date, hosted by ABC News. \n\nIf there is no such debate on that date, whether because it has been rescheduled, canceled or one or both of the Republican or Democratic nominees has declined to participate, this question resolves as **No**.\n", "fine_print": "If a different entity other than ABC News hosts the debate, it will still count, as long as a debate takes place.\n\nIt will still count if third party or other candidates participate, as long as the Republican and Democratic nominees participate. \n\nIf the debate is rescheduled for a different time on September 10, 2024, it will still count as long as any part of the debate happens on September 10, 2024 local time. If it gets rescheduled for any other date, however, this question will resolve as No. \n\nAlternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count. \n", "post_id": 26193, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225871.027849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.773 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225871.027849, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "centers": [ 0.773 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22699999999999998, 0.773 ], "means": [ 0.6863543893088428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.09680796946586576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.7020670829292148, 0.3551836243544548, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.1277733371602379, 0.0, 0.16283381898698981, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.5570998514961579, 0.43563441074387765, 1.159862452171471, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 62.854031926276036, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.854031926276036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225871.066713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225871.066713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46557640400935096, 0.534423595990649 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate, presumably between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, although the final nominees have not yet been determined at the time of this question's creation. \"World News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate, with rules and location still to be determined. The first presidential debate was widely considered a [debacle](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/poll-debate-biden-trump.html) for Biden, leading some to speculate on whether there will be a second debate" }, { "id": 26192, "title": "Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kimberly-cheatle-remain-director-of-the-united-states-secret-service-through-september-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:14.230002Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.507944Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26192, "title": "Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:14.230002Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T20:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospital and being [released later that day](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/). [One bystander died in the shooting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce586kxjvnyo) and two were seriously injured. The [shooter was killed by the Secret Service](https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5) immediately after the assassination attempt.\n\nIn the wake of the assassination attempt observers have [raised questions](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1jz027nrzo) about the quality of protection provided by the [US Secret Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service), the agency charged with the protection of political leaders. Some observers [have asserted](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/14/secret-service-trump-shooting-rally-00168158) that the lack of security around the nearby rooftop where the gunman opened fire, including the perception of a [slow response](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/15/trump-gunman-forced-policeman-to-back-off-in-rooftop-confro/) when bystanders tried to get the attention of nearby police due to seeing the gunman climbing on the roof prior to the assassination attempt.\n\n[Kimberly Cheatle](https://www.secretservice.gov/about/leadership/director) has been Director of the US Secret Service since September 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kimberly Cheatle remains Director of the United States Secret Service continuously through the end of September 30, 2024, Eastern Time. The question will resolve as **No** if before October 1, 2024, there has been an official announcement from the government that Cheatle is no longer the director, including temporarily.", "fine_print": "* In the event of a temporary suspension of duties, for example if Cheatle were put on administrative leave, or if an acting Director of the US Secret Service who is not Cheatle is appointed for any reason, the question will also resolve as **No**.\n* An official public confirmation is required, rumors or reporting from anonymous sources that Cheatle has been placed on administrative leave are not sufficient.", "post_id": 26192, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225868.716302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225868.716302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5294130704575398 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0088235804430548, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.041369946828336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7929917457216733, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.16698083976910363, 0.7829844257374758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.23826799925099265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.4809786573605918, 0.9172371287241657, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08593499573177435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14546338707250028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225868.752105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225868.752105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5116942066019148, 0.4883057933980852 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospital and being [released later that day](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/). [One bystander died in the shooting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce586kxjvnyo) and two were seriously injured. The [shooter was killed by the Secret Service](https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5) immediately after the assassination attempt.\n\nIn the wake of the assassination attempt observers have [raised questions](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1jz027nrzo) about the quality of protection provided by the [US Secret Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service), the agency charged with the protection of political leaders. Some observers [have asserted](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/14/secret-service-trump-shooting-rally-00168158) that the lack of security around the nearby rooftop where the gunman opened fire, including the perception of a [slow response](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/15/trump-gunman-forced-policeman-to-back-off-in-rooftop-confro/) when bystanders tried to get the attention of nearby police due to seeing the gunman climbing on the roof prior to the assassination attempt.\n\n[Kimberly Cheatle](https://www.secretservice.gov/about/leadership/director) has been Director of the US Secret Service since September 2022." }, { "id": 26191, "title": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "short_title": "Will Biden end his candidacy?", "url_title": "Will Biden end his candidacy?", "slug": "will-biden-end-his-candidacy", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:14.037991Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.971349Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26191, "title": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:14.037991Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T20:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.\n\nThe [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 22, 2024, any of these four events takes place with respect to the 2024 US presidential election, resolved in accordance with the Metaculus [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) policy: \n\n1. President Joe Biden or his campaign announces that Biden will not seek or accept the Democratic Party's nomination or (if he is officially nominated before August 22, 2024), Biden resigns as the nominee. \n\n2. Biden officially releases his delegates from their [pledge](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) to vote for him in the Democratic Party's presidential roll call ballot.\n\n3. Biden endorses another person to be the Democratic nominee.\n\n4. Biden ceases to be President of the United States.\n\nIf none of these events occur before August 22, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will not resolve as No before August 22, 2024, which is the final day of the Democratic National Convention and is the traditional day in which the party's presidential nominee makes their acceptance speech. So for example, if Biden becomes the official nominee through a virtual roll call vote held before the Convention, this question will remain open and can still resolve as Yes if Biden subsequently announces that he is stepping down as the nominee.\n\nActions such as canceling campaign events that are merely suggestive of Biden withdrawing his candidacy are insufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\nA temporary suspension of Biden's campaign will not count.\n\nWith respect to point #2 in the main Resolution Criteria, spontaneous remarks by Biden about his delegates, such as his recently saying at a press conference that delegates are \"free to do whatever they want\" but \"it's not gonna happen\" do not count as officially releasing delegates from their pledge. A Yes resolution would require a formal statement or action from the Biden-Harris Campaign officially releasing the pledged delegates in the presidential roll call.\n\nAs stated in Metaculus's credible source policy, there must be \"no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness.\" Therefore, false announcements, hacks, or misleading information will not count.", "post_id": 26191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721226179.990349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721226179.990349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2518986740166165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.14718282122980625, 0.36787677200769087, 0.8423858322996396, 0.031223319598590725, 0.05414553402405742, 1.108660913924663, 0.3772259245917575, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.651751917697099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 1.071498097799339, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 1.4034472195013126, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721226180.021329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721226180.021329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8766011156091122, 0.12339888439088781 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.\n\nThe [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee." }, { "id": 26190, "title": "Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-uk-government-ban-any-uk-oil-and-gas-licenses-currently-being-processed-by-september-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.889300Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.817806Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26190, "title": "Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.889300Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-03T20:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Oil and gas is a critical part of the UK economy and its energy security. It provides over £20 billion and over 200,000 jobs, as per [Offshore Energies UK](https://oeuk.org.uk).\n\nDuring the [2024 UK General Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Labour pledged to voters that they would not issue new oil and gas licenses in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) as part of their \"net zero\" strategy; this is specifically outlined in their [2024 party manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/):\n\n>We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.\n\nFurthermore, Labour also pledged that they:\n\n>will not revoke existing licences and we will partner with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. \n\nHowever, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/af2c1ba0-4ca3-436f-960a-f223619e6a22) that - contrary to their manifesto - the Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to ban new drilling licenses:\n\n>The government is expected to ban new North Sea drilling licences from companies whose applications are already being processed\n\n>Energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering blocking a handful of outstanding applications made as part of an oil and gas licensing round that opened in late 2022\n\nThe article elaborates further:\n\n>The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied a report published earlier on Thursday by the Daily Telegraph that Miliband had already over-ruled his officials and ordered an “immediate ban on new drilling” that would stop the final applications in the 33rd round. \n\n>Yet the government did not deny that Miliband’s eventual intention was to stop those licence applications from being granted by the North Sea Transition Authority. Ministers are considering the situation carefully before making any firm decision, according to government figures. \n\nAccording to [Energy Voice](https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/552821/breaking-nsta-reveals-winners-of-latest-north-sea-licensing-round/), the 33rd licensing round resulted in 27 licenses being awarded in the first tranche, 24 in the second, and a further 31 in the third, with the latter tranche potentially adding 600 million barrels of oil equivalent.\n\n*Will Labour revoke any North Sea oil and gas licenses currently being processed?*", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"**Yes**\" if the UK Government announces, before September 1, 2024, that at least one (1) UK oil and gas license from the 33rd licensing round has been, or plans to be, revoked.", "fine_print": "- The licenses in question (i.e., those currently being \"processed\") are from the North Sea Transition Authority's (NSTA) \"The 33rd Offshore Licensing Round\" which were awarded in the first, second and third tranches as detailed on the NSTA [website](https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/licensing-and-consents/licensing/).\n\n- Any announcement of a license revocation must come directly from an official UK government source.", "post_id": 26190, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225883.775702, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225883.775702, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3430926173567282 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.33172114962632787, 0.18125574861973415, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.8481937731318165, 0.0, 0.28518763350370274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.9288586906902475, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47418924876608476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.364988992146217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3110133846775924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06146157962559017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 1.2851363590555764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225883.813925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225883.813925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8160917083998604, 0.18390829160013958 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Oil and gas is a critical part of the UK economy and its energy security. It provides over £20 billion and over 200,000 jobs, as per [Offshore Energies UK](https://oeuk.org.uk).\n\nDuring the [2024 UK General Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Labour pledged to voters that they would not issue new oil and gas licenses in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) as part of their \"net zero\" strategy; this is specifically outlined in their [2024 party manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/):\n\n>We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.\n\nFurthermore, Labour also pledged that they:\n\n>will not revoke existing licences and we will partner with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. \n\nHowever, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/af2c1ba0-4ca3-436f-960a-f223619e6a22) that - contrary to their manifesto - the Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to ban new drilling licenses:\n\n>The government is expected to ban new North Sea drilling licences from companies whose applications are already being processed\n\n>Energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering blocking a handful of outstanding applications made as part of an oil and gas licensing round that opened in late 2022\n\nThe article elaborates further:\n\n>The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied a report published earlier on Thursday by the Daily Telegraph that Miliband had already over-ruled his officials and ordered an “immediate ban on new drilling” that would stop the final applications in the 33rd round. \n\n>Yet the government did not deny that Miliband’s eventual intention was to stop those licence applications from being granted by the North Sea Transition Authority. Ministers are considering the situation carefully before making any firm decision, according to government figures. \n\nAccording to [Energy Voice](https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/552821/breaking-nsta-reveals-winners-of-latest-north-sea-licensing-round/), the 33rd licensing round resulted in 27 licenses being awarded in the first tranche, 24 in the second, and a further 31 in the third, with the latter tranche potentially adding 600 million barrels of oil equivalent.\n\n*Will Labour revoke any North Sea oil and gas licenses currently being processed?*" }, { "id": 26189, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-swimmer-win-the-most-gold-medals-at-the-2024-paris-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.726077Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.533149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26189, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.726077Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have athletes competing in multiple events. Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the swimming events.", "fine_print": "If more than one athlete is tied for the most gold medals, this question resolves as **Yes** as long as at least one of them is a swimmer. 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