Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2480
{ "count": 5965, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2460", "results": [ { "id": 26189, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-swimmer-win-the-most-gold-medals-at-the-2024-paris-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.726077Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.533149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26189, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T17:18:13.726077Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have athletes competing in multiple events. Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the swimming events.", "fine_print": "If more than one athlete is tied for the most gold medals, this question resolves as **Yes** as long as at least one of them is a swimmer. All references to \"being a swimmer\" in this question mean \"competing in a swimming event\"; a gymnast e.g. who can swim does not count.", "post_id": 26189, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225866.268285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225866.268285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6261564527996729 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0176036300705131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007327801183143461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6447747757508819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6811539819719399, 0.4558255104153697, 0.2259663085859135, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 1.7845176082891498, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19979684513249962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4978758987684847, 0.0, 0.6432461606320967, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057912973875534374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721225866.304304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721225866.304304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4092524297173029, 0.5907475702826971 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have athletes competing in multiple events. Will the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?" }, { "id": 26175, "title": "Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Cheatle SS Director Through September 2024?", "url_title": "Cheatle SS Director Through September 2024?", "slug": "cheatle-ss-director-through-september-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-15T15:34:46.009660Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.717527Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T14:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26175, "title": "Will Kimberly Cheatle remain Director of the United States Secret Service through September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T15:34:46.009660Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T14:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospital and being [released later that day](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/). [One bystander died in the shooting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce586kxjvnyo) and two were seriously injured. The [shooter was killed by the Secret Service](https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5) immediately after the assassination attempt.\n\nIn the wake of the assassination attempt observers have [raised questions](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1jz027nrzo) about the quality of protection provided by the [US Secret Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service), the agency charged with the protection of political leaders. Some observers [have asserted](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/14/secret-service-trump-shooting-rally-00168158) that the lack of security around the nearby rooftop where the gunman opened fire, including the perception of a [slow response](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/15/trump-gunman-forced-policeman-to-back-off-in-rooftop-confro/) when bystanders tried to get the attention of nearby police due to seeing the gunman climbing on the roof prior to the assassination attempt.\n\n[Kimberly Cheatle](https://www.secretservice.gov/about/leadership/director) has been Director of the US Secret Service since September 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kimberly Cheatle remains Director of the United States Secret Service continuously through the end of September 30, 2024, Eastern Time. The question will resolve as **No** if before October 1, 2024, there has been an official announcement from the government that Cheatle is no longer the director, including temporarily.", "fine_print": "* In the event of a temporary suspension of duties, for example if Cheatle were put on administrative leave, or if an acting Director of the US Secret Service who is not Cheatle is appointed for any reason, the question will also resolve as **No**.\n* An official public confirmation is required, rumors or reporting from anonymous sources that Cheatle has been placed on administrative leave are not sufficient.", "post_id": 26175, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721747390.29666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721747390.29666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07159686431705997 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.834334843188337, 7.051933080467593, 0.22567992891996577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7468622410603494, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1619279597240064, 0.41674820287565373, 1.143911144966825, 0.021832922439402977, 0.04551061146036385, 0.0, 0.0743436415814241, 0.2837393092707986, 0.6062414491873249, 0.0, 0.40932715377237294, 0.0027223742919663453, 0.1940054312205183, 0.0, 0.00524797978376936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16131522510474958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06955922078988591, 0.0689923535187216, 0.005805836553457768, 0.07941099381019567, 0.0, 0.0006550752130773272, 0.0, 0.010243343466511347, 0.2390473384080099, 0.0, 0.30020831191932407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3795237574034365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014180900852898418, 0.0, 0.0018810818436737359, 0.0, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07921685111084045, 0.0021358479068187765, 0.00581205449732064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02016325144692848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039821753086243025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014443371433172286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014617867477061744, 0.0, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.0005513502689110807, 0.0, 0.07210791834119913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0024156522646221978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02505717127078514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001006846631669512 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.294370188154512, "coverage": 0.09213276248210057, "baseline_score": -0.8897174132456497, "spot_peer_score": 77.08072845203942, "peer_archived_score": 3.294370188154512, "baseline_archived_score": -0.8897174132456497, "spot_peer_archived_score": 77.08072845203942 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721741629.256965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721741629.256965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 102, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9180227185866227, 0.08197728141337739 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 452, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 13, 2024, at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, former US president Donald Trump was [shot during an assassination attempt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attempted_assassination_of_Donald_Trump). Several shots were fired, and Trump was struck in the ear by one bullet, receiving treatment at a local hospital and being [released later that day](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/possible-shots-fired-at-trump-rally-in-butler-pennsylvania/). [One bystander died in the shooting](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce586kxjvnyo) and two were seriously injured. The [shooter was killed by the Secret Service](https://apnews.com/article/trump-assassination-attempt-thomas-matthew-crooks-shooter-881581c46c07025898027143fc9132e5) immediately after the assassination attempt.\n\nIn the wake of the assassination attempt observers have [raised questions](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd1jz027nrzo) about the quality of protection provided by the [US Secret Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Secret_Service), the agency charged with the protection of political leaders. Some observers [have asserted](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/07/14/secret-service-trump-shooting-rally-00168158) that the lack of security around the nearby rooftop where the gunman opened fire, including the perception of a [slow response](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/07/15/trump-gunman-forced-policeman-to-back-off-in-rooftop-confro/) when bystanders tried to get the attention of nearby police due to seeing the gunman climbing on the roof prior to the assassination attempt.\n\n[Kimberly Cheatle](https://www.secretservice.gov/about/leadership/director) has been Director of the US Secret Service since September 2022." }, { "id": 26173, "title": "Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Ruto cease to be Kenya head by Oct. '24?", "url_title": "Will Ruto cease to be Kenya head by Oct. '24?", "slug": "will-ruto-cease-to-be-kenya-head-by-oct-24", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-15T01:05:50.847150Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.892239Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 72, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26173, "title": "Will William Ruto cease to be President of Kenya before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-15T01:05:50.847150Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. Later Ruto reinstated some of the dismissed cabinet members, and [appointed some members of the opposition](https://apnews.com/article/kenya-william-ruto-cabinet-anti-government-protests-8b56ed967f0280c2af594c54971e3e0b) on July 24.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) William Ruto ceases to be the President of Kenya before October 1, 2024, for any reason including but not limited to resignation, impeachment, losing an election, or removal from office via a coup. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Ruto is still President of Kenya but another individual takes over temporarily, this will not count as long as Ruto resumes his duties within 30 days. Longer than 30 days will resolve as **Yes**. This 30 day period must complete before October 1, 2024, otherwise the question will resolve as **No** if the other criteria have not been met.\n\nIf Ruto ceases to be President and takes another role such as Prime Minister, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIn cases of severe uncertainty causing disagreement among credible sources, Admins will refer to the [UN Heads of State list](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) to see if Ruto's name is still listed as President of the Republic of Kenya.", "post_id": 26173, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727710617.532632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727710617.532632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.004094091950725638 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.484691732959078, 2.3611154616404146, 0.2978293336201214, 0.02274168016959981, 0.05932537048123571, 0.0, 0.006409490637180558, 0.0017179900185852635, 0.0, 0.0013141707011951615, 0.0026929702225732283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006320132079752626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.379425017003483, "coverage": 0.9999984823488519, "baseline_score": 95.59492819534933, "spot_peer_score": 18.107639838924857, "peer_archived_score": 3.379425017003483, "baseline_archived_score": 95.59492819534933, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.107639838924857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727710617.605203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727710617.605203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 329, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After weeks of anti-government protests, the President of Kenya, William Ruto, [fired](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/11/africa/kenyas-president-fires-entire-cabinet-intl/index.html) almost his entire cabinet, [saying](https://nation.africa/kenya/news/president-ruto-sacks-entire-cabinet-4687068) he was \"listening keenly to what the people of Kenya have said\" as a concession to protestors. This follows several weeks of nationwide protests so intense they Ruto had to be [barricaded](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/14/opinion/kenya-protests-politics.html) into his presidential compound. On June 25, 2024, police [opened fire](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/young-kenyan-tax-protesters-plan-nationwide-demonstrations-2024-06-25/) on protestors attempting to enter the parliament. In total at least [39 people](https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/07/09/kenyas-deadly-gen-z-protests-could-change-the-country) have been killed. \n\n\nThe protests, which were sparked by unpopular proposed tax hikes. evolved into [demands for Ruto's ouster](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-activists-call-fresh-protests-demanding-rutos-resignation-2024-06-28/). A day after dismissing his cabinet, the police chief of Kenya, Inspector General Japhet Koome, [resigned](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/12/kenya-police-chief-resigns-after-criticism-over-protest-crackdown) amid accusations of using excessive force on protestors. Later Ruto reinstated some of the dismissed cabinet members, and [appointed some members of the opposition](https://apnews.com/article/kenya-william-ruto-cabinet-anti-government-protests-8b56ed967f0280c2af594c54971e3e0b) on July 24.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Wikipedia: [Kenya Finance Bill protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Finance_Bill_protests)<br />\n- The Standard (Kenya newspaper): [Ruto faces tough week amidst calls for his resignation](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/national/article/2001499004/ruto-faces-tough-week-amidst-calls-for-his-resignation)<br />\n- The Standard: [Corruption, unemployment, broken pledges, abductions sunk Ruto ship](https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/politics/article/2001498951/corruption-unemployment-broken-pledges-abductions-sunk-ruto-ship)" }, { "id": 26170, "title": "Will SpaceX's Super Heavy booster make contact with the catch tower during the landing phase of Starship integrated flight test 5?", "short_title": "SpaceX Booster Catch Attempt During Test 5?", "url_title": "SpaceX Booster Catch Attempt During Test 5?", "slug": "spacex-booster-catch-attempt-during-test-5", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-14T21:19:39.827262Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.504872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26170, "title": "Will SpaceX's Super Heavy booster make contact with the catch tower during the landing phase of Starship integrated flight test 5?", "created_at": "2024-07-14T21:19:39.827262Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-16T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the NSF space news site](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-preparations-tower-catch-flight-5/):\n\n>Many signs point to a possible catch attempt on the fifth flight of Starship. Elon Musk did post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he thought there should be a catch attempt on Flight 5. A new communications license from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has language that states there will either be a soft ocean landing like on the last flight or a catch attempt at the orbital launch site.\n\nAs of July 22, 2024, the fifth flight of Starship [is expected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_5) in August 2024. \n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk has [dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. \n\nOn June 6, 2024, Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1798732390313218305): \n\n>I think we should try to catch the booster with the mechazilla arms next flight!", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during integrated flight test 5 (IFT-5), SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with a [launch and catch tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video), and the booster makes contact with the tower during the landing attempt. If no such attempt and contact is made during IFT-5, the question will resolve as **No**. If IFT-5 does not occur before October 1, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve as **Yes** if Super Heavy booster makes any physical contact at all with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where the booster approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\n* If IFT-5 occurs but the booster is destroyed before the landing attempt, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\n* IFT-5 will be taken to mean the next launch of a Starship stacked on top of Super Heavy booster. An aborted launch before the rocket leaves the pad will not count as IFT-5, so long as IFT-5 can be rescheduled for a later date. For example, if IFT-5 is attempted and the rocket blows up on the pad, that will count as a completed IFT-5 and the question will resolve as **No**. But if IFT-5 is attempted and the countdown is aborted without the rocket leaving the pad, and the launch occurs at an attempt a week later, that attempt will count as IFT-5.", "post_id": 26170, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723839493.810298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.622 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723839493.810298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.622 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.378, 0.622 ], "means": [ 0.6165584053096675 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014742156022549508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01698211627615795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007807124044234717, 0.0, 0.4230831509816875, 0.543308524129585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1711754945605547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8205085284290268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14609385395765245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8013993852556107, 0.49617274103129017, 0.0, 0.022188915831439535, 0.36157609068243796, 0.6713668508986093, 1.2919763493745167, 0.4006855037244879, 0.18616056073700932, 0.9925555790800209, 0.08332611069851885, 0.9548443168380663, 0.7771596948362487, 0.6689792532165326, 0.6696260487627572, 0.6916136490322183, 0.03607169459898251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.070936383283372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00926838856481337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5386824080822843 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723839493.810298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723839493.810298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47246556271670626, 0.5275344372832937 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 127, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the NSF space news site](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-preparations-tower-catch-flight-5/):\n\n>Many signs point to a possible catch attempt on the fifth flight of Starship. Elon Musk did post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he thought there should be a catch attempt on Flight 5. A new communications license from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has language that states there will either be a soft ocean landing like on the last flight or a catch attempt at the orbital launch site.\n\nAs of July 22, 2024, the fifth flight of Starship [is expected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_5) in August 2024. \n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk has [dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. \n\nOn June 6, 2024, Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1798732390313218305): \n\n>I think we should try to catch the booster with the mechazilla arms next flight!" }, { "id": 26162, "title": "Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?", "short_title": "Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?", "url_title": "Renewables >55% global electric gen. by 2030?", "slug": "renewables-55-global-electric-gen-by-2030", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T22:31:03.550095Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T19:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.250617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T19:14:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-16T19:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26162, "title": "Will renewable energy exceed 55% of global electricity generation before 2030, according to Our World in Data?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T22:31:03.550095Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T19:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T19:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T19:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping warming to no more than 1.5°C requires global carbon emissions to peak in 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030. (Source: the IPCC's [Summary for Policymakers pdf](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf))\n\nAccording to OWID, the past ten years through 2023 had this history:\n\n| Year | Percentage of Electricity Generated from Renewables |\n|------|----------------------------------------------------|\n| 2014 | 22.255533 |\n| 2015 | 22.991205 |\n| 2016 | 23.754622 |\n| 2017 | 24.542074 |\n| 2018 | 25.178684 |\n| 2019 | 26.18718 |\n| 2020 | 28.076723 |\n| 2021 | 28.140446 |\n| 2022 | 29.41609 |\n| 2023 | 30.238085 |\n\nStanford Professor Tony Seba of RethinkX [has forecast](https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RethinkingEnergy2020-2030-LRR.pdf) even more aggressive growth in renewables through the 2020s, saying: \n\n>The disruption of the energy sector during the\n2020s will be driven by the convergence of three\nclean energy technologies: solar photovoltaics,\nonshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries\n(SWB). The costs and capabilities of each of these\ntechnologies have been consistently improving for\nseveral decades. Since 2010 alone, solar PV\ncapacity costs have fallen over 80%, onshore wind\ncapacity costs have fallen more than 45%, and\nlithium-ion battery capacity costs have fallen\nalmost 90%. These technologies will continue to\ntraverse their remarkable experience curves such\nthat by 2030 their costs will have decreased a\nfurther 70%, 40%, and 80% respectively.\n\nOther forecasters have been decidedly more pessimistic about the world achieving its growth rate targets in renewables by 2030, such as [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewables-growth-rate-insufficient-reach-2030-target-says-irena-2024-07-11/) a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) which calculated a shortfall at the current rate of renewables adoption. \n\nSee Also \n\n- [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/)\n- [AP More and faster: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total](https://apnews.com/article/renewable-energy-climate-solar-wind-fossil-fuels-2718fce0ed37232dc25dbf46fff87955)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the World share of electricity production from renewables exceeds 55% for any year before 2030, according to the dataset by Our World in Data (OWID) which can be accessed at [this link](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-electricity-renewables?tab=chart&country=~OWID_WRL), with the precise numbers able to be accessed by clicking on the download icon located in the bottom right corner of the chart.\n\nIf at the time it posts its 2029 data OWID has not reported the global share of electricity production from renewables exceeding 55% for any year through then, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Generally OWID updates the page in June for the previous year. For example, it published the 2023 data on June 20, 2024, the 2024 data is expected in the June 2025 update, and so on. In the event of a reporting delay, resolution will wait up to 2 years for the 2029 data to be posted. If on July 1, 2033 OWID has not posted the data for all years through and including 2029, this question will be **Annulled**.\n\nThis question will resolve as No unless any complete year is greater than 55%, according to OWID. \n\nRevised data for any year before 2029 will count as Yes if it shows > 55% renewables. \n\nAccording to OWID, \"Renewables include electricity production from hydropower, solar, wind, biomass & waste, geothermal, wave, and tidal sources.\" In the event of OWID significantly changing its methodology or no longer publishing this data, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).\n\nIf OWID ceases to exist, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion, or resolve as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 26162, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756037846.808255, "end_time": 1760695683.577259, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756037846.808255, "end_time": 1760695683.577259, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05577137509477349 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 2.16753160313064, 1.25908230772043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287151.118566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287151.118566, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9935752490726216, 0.006424750927378371 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), keeping warming to no more than 1.5°C requires global carbon emissions to peak in 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030. (Source: the IPCC's [Summary for Policymakers pdf](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_SummaryForPolicymakers.pdf))\n\nAccording to OWID, the past ten years through 2023 had this history:\n\n| Year | Percentage of Electricity Generated from Renewables |\n|------|----------------------------------------------------|\n| 2014 | 22.255533 |\n| 2015 | 22.991205 |\n| 2016 | 23.754622 |\n| 2017 | 24.542074 |\n| 2018 | 25.178684 |\n| 2019 | 26.18718 |\n| 2020 | 28.076723 |\n| 2021 | 28.140446 |\n| 2022 | 29.41609 |\n| 2023 | 30.238085 |\n\nStanford Professor Tony Seba of RethinkX [has forecast](https://tonyseba.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/RethinkingEnergy2020-2030-LRR.pdf) even more aggressive growth in renewables through the 2020s, saying: \n\n>The disruption of the energy sector during the\n2020s will be driven by the convergence of three\nclean energy technologies: solar photovoltaics,\nonshore wind power, and lithium-ion batteries\n(SWB). The costs and capabilities of each of these\ntechnologies have been consistently improving for\nseveral decades. Since 2010 alone, solar PV\ncapacity costs have fallen over 80%, onshore wind\ncapacity costs have fallen more than 45%, and\nlithium-ion battery capacity costs have fallen\nalmost 90%. These technologies will continue to\ntraverse their remarkable experience curves such\nthat by 2030 their costs will have decreased a\nfurther 70%, 40%, and 80% respectively.\n\nOther forecasters have been decidedly more pessimistic about the world achieving its growth rate targets in renewables by 2030, such as [according to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewables-growth-rate-insufficient-reach-2030-target-says-irena-2024-07-11/) a recent report by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) which calculated a shortfall at the current rate of renewables adoption. \n\nSee Also \n\n- [IPCC Sixth Assessment Report](https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/)\n- [AP More and faster: Electricity from clean sources reaches 30% of global total](https://apnews.com/article/renewable-energy-climate-solar-wind-fossil-fuels-2718fce0ed37232dc25dbf46fff87955)" }, { "id": 26159, "title": "Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a 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"2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26159, "title": "Between July 17 and July 28, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:20:10.767906Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T12:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T12:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T12:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between July 17 and July 28, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 4 and less than or equal to 6, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their running 30-day history data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. 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This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/))", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if any of the following occur between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024:\n\nThere are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, includes areas of the current territory (\"free area\" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data.\nThere are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.\nThere are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC and citing evidence that the government of the majority of the ROC is de facto controlled by China, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. Articles which, in the judgment of Metaculus, are hyperbole or otherwise do not make a strong case that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC will not count.", "fine_print": "A peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan would result in this question resolving Yes.\n\nArticles must be written and published by different sources and must reach their conclusions largely independently, publishing the same article at a separate news outlet or several news outlets reporting statements made by the same individual or group of individuals will not count as separate articles.", "post_id": 26140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140056.374614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.0860335094568004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140056.374614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.0860335094568004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9139664905431996, 0.0860335094568004 ], "means": [ 0.099758615336788 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4809786573605918, 0.7020670829292148, 0.8275459114924841, 0.3965535711827907, 0.0, 1.4872979833609872, 0.0, 0.6109591086113877, 1.012073548031982, 0.0, 2.7234402597862712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.27865381893385066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 87.0213176727084, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.0213176727084 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140056.403292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140056.403292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9751476734105613, 0.024852326589438697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. This process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\" and is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/))" }, { "id": 26139, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalenjin-athletes-win-both-the-mens-and-womens-marathon-races-at-the-2024-paris-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.425968Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.079872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26139, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.425968Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots.", "fine_print": "The athletes do not have to compete for Kenya nor be entirely Kalenjin; as long as they have part of their origin in the ethnic group, this counts.", "post_id": 26139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140057.773612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140057.773612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5930676206722234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6160959649941371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0086988656529743, 0.2561175077238105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.389223550072833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48810492374921693, 0.0, 0.9781962331125931, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.6382293363986749, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140057.800847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140057.800847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4224262898167531, 0.5775737101832469 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. 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In the past 3 months, the high has been 1.3824, and the low has been 1.3493.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCAUS) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data\n(FRED) database at the [DEXCAUS webpage](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS) exceeds 1.3600 for September 20, 2024. It resolves as **No** if the rate is 1.3600 or lower. The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to a week for the data for September 20, 2024 to be posted. If it has not been posted as of September 27, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus admins, this question will resolve based on the most recent figure posted.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question's resolution, there will not be any rounding of the figures posted at FRED.", "post_id": 26138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721139465.421277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721139465.421277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5931834676421217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45884221047791107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 1.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5388299933143196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.40213785952358283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13135512406716748, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0094962884186239, 0.422729524609672, 0.19380021535580197, 1.6987079780983985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.750343771036404, 0.0, 0.7344157083846621, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721139465.45567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721139465.45567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5741290782165465, 0.4258709217834536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 5, 2024, this value was 1.3631. In the past 3 months, the high has been 1.3824, and the low has been 1.3493." }, { "id": 26134, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacex-attempt-to-catch-a-starship-booster-with-the-tower-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:59.167216Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.832284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26134, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:59.167216Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with the tower.", "fine_print": "* A catch attempt will be considered one where the Super Heavy booster makes contact with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where it approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* The catch attempt need not occur as part of an integrated flight test (where the second stage is stacked on top of the booster). 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So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year." }, { "id": 26133, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-remain-prime-minister-of-israel-through-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:58.803273Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.779906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26133, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:58.803273Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "If Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of Israel from July 1, 2024 to Sept 30, 2024, this question will resolve as YES. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140055.953861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140055.953861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.614981867417428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.16860872986592954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5023944883348679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.38552603931517593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4232841267034866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0555681484137076, 0.26302409780338243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.7340957181700754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.6650883542974395, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140055.979548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140055.979548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42438805487982256, 0.5756119451201774 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks." }, { "id": 26116, "title": "Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "UK Oil & Gas Existing License Ban", "url_title": "UK Oil & Gas Existing License Ban", "slug": "uk-oil-gas-existing-license-ban", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T20:59:40.296123Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.084119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26116, "title": "Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T20:59:40.296123Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Oil and gas is a critical part of the UK economy and its energy security. It provides over £20 billion and over 200,000 jobs, as per [Offshore Energies UK](https://oeuk.org.uk).\n\nDuring the [2024 UK General Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Labour pledged to voters that they would not issue new oil and gas licenses in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) as part of their \"net zero\" strategy; this is specifically outlined in their [2024 party manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/):\n\n>We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.\n\nFurthermore, Labour also pledged that they:\n\n>will not revoke existing licences and we will partner with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. \n\nHowever, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/af2c1ba0-4ca3-436f-960a-f223619e6a22) that - contrary to their manifesto - the Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to ban new drilling licenses:\n\n>The government is expected to ban new North Sea drilling licences from companies whose applications are already being processed\n\n>Energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering blocking a handful of outstanding applications made as part of an oil and gas licensing round that opened in late 2022\n\nThe article elaborates further:\n\n>The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied a report published earlier on Thursday by the Daily Telegraph that Miliband had already over-ruled his officials and ordered an “immediate ban on new drilling” that would stop the final applications in the 33rd round. \n\n>Yet the government did not deny that Miliband’s eventual intention was to stop those licence applications from being granted by the North Sea Transition Authority. Ministers are considering the situation carefully before making any firm decision, according to government figures. \n\nAccording to [Energy Voice](https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/552821/breaking-nsta-reveals-winners-of-latest-north-sea-licensing-round/), the 33rd licensing round resulted in 27 licenses being awarded in the first tranche, 24 in the second, and a further 31 in the third, with the latter tranche potentially adding 600 million barrels of oil equivalent.\n\n*Will Labour revoke any North Sea oil and gas licenses currently being processed?*", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"**Yes**\" if the UK Government announces, before September 1, 2024, that at least one (1) UK oil and gas license from the 33rd licensing round has been, or plans to be, revoked.", "fine_print": "- The licenses in question (i.e., those currently being \"processed\") are from the North Sea Transition Authority's (NSTA) \"The 33rd Offshore Licensing Round\" which were awarded in the first, second and third tranches as detailed on the NSTA [website](https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/licensing-and-consents/licensing/).\n\n- Any announcement of a license revocation must come directly from an official UK government source.", "post_id": 26116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724519052.715372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.093 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724519052.715372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.093 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.0537024745162553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8330381715449309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724573780.377095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724573780.377095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9935048004380344, 0.006495199561965632 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Oil and gas is a critical part of the UK economy and its energy security. It provides over £20 billion and over 200,000 jobs, as per [Offshore Energies UK](https://oeuk.org.uk).\n\nDuring the [2024 UK General Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Labour pledged to voters that they would not issue new oil and gas licenses in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) as part of their \"net zero\" strategy; this is specifically outlined in their [2024 party manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/):\n\n>We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.\n\nFurthermore, Labour also pledged that they:\n\n>will not revoke existing licences and we will partner with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. \n\nHowever, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/af2c1ba0-4ca3-436f-960a-f223619e6a22) that - contrary to their manifesto - the Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to ban new drilling licenses:\n\n>The government is expected to ban new North Sea drilling licences from companies whose applications are already being processed\n\n>Energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering blocking a handful of outstanding applications made as part of an oil and gas licensing round that opened in late 2022\n\nThe article elaborates further:\n\n>The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied a report published earlier on Thursday by the Daily Telegraph that Miliband had already over-ruled his officials and ordered an “immediate ban on new drilling” that would stop the final applications in the 33rd round. \n\n>Yet the government did not deny that Miliband’s eventual intention was to stop those licence applications from being granted by the North Sea Transition Authority. Ministers are considering the situation carefully before making any firm decision, according to government figures. \n\nAccording to [Energy Voice](https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/552821/breaking-nsta-reveals-winners-of-latest-north-sea-licensing-round/), the 33rd licensing round resulted in 27 licenses being awarded in the first tranche, 24 in the second, and a further 31 in the third, with the latter tranche potentially adding 600 million barrels of oil equivalent.\n\n*Will Labour revoke any North Sea oil and gas licenses currently being processed?*" }, { "id": 26114, "title": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?", "short_title": "Will France call another election by 2026?", "url_title": "Will France call another election by 2026?", "slug": "will-france-call-another-election-by-2026", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T12:13:27.435200Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T05:15:36.190608Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 162, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26114, "title": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T12:13:27.435200Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-29T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n\nFollowing the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n\nSee also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)", "resolution_criteria": "Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.", "fine_print": "If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n\nThe actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.", "post_id": 26114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758258925.938441, "end_time": 1758870215.183, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758258925.938441, "end_time": 1758870215.183, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3850518749296461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7967079102447465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038452075194978584, 0.0, 0.2387745119184577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4839924332797212, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021542612258663517, 0.029132572966941807, 0.1783108254518029, 0.02341390564358923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16466410993500383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.927126069510005, 0.0, 1.0671042201470293, 0.28495119657571016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9454180726352348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.030501434583755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4767476209565657, 0.5949610715209219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3434210135409986, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8538713195326941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10783452433772765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21810592821876404, 0.18113776984784913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288693.338054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288693.338054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7708416903359192, 0.22915830966408082 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 374, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n\nFollowing the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n\nSee also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)" }, { "id": 26109, "title": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "short_title": "Will Biden end his candidacy?", "url_title": "Will Biden end his candidacy?", "slug": "will-biden-end-his-candidacy", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" }, { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-11T18:56:43.676912Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.520267Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26109, "title": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T18:56:43.676912Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.\n\nThe [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 22, 2024, any of these four events takes place with respect to the 2024 US presidential election, resolved in accordance with the Metaculus [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) policy: \n\n1. President Joe Biden or his campaign announces that Biden will not seek or accept the Democratic Party's nomination or (if he is officially nominated before August 22, 2024), Biden resigns as the nominee. \n\n2. Biden officially releases his delegates from their [pledge](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) to vote for him in the Democratic Party's presidential roll call ballot.\n\n3. Biden endorses another person to be the Democratic nominee.\n\n4. Biden ceases to be President of the United States.\n\nIf none of these events occur before August 22, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will not resolve as No before August 22, 2024, which is the final day of the Democratic National Convention and is the traditional day in which the party's presidential nominee makes their acceptance speech. So for example, if Biden becomes the official nominee through a virtual roll call vote held before the Convention, this question will remain open and can still resolve as Yes if Biden subsequently announces that he is stepping down as the nominee.\n\nActions such as canceling campaign events that are merely suggestive of Biden withdrawing his candidacy are insufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\nA temporary suspension of Biden's campaign will not count.\n\nWith respect to point #2 in the main Resolution Criteria, spontaneous remarks by Biden about his delegates, such as his recently saying at a press conference that delegates are \"free to do whatever they want\" but \"it's not gonna happen\" do not count as officially releasing delegates from their pledge. A Yes resolution would require a formal statement or action from the Biden-Harris Campaign officially releasing the pledged delegates in the presidential roll call.\n\nAs stated in Metaculus's credible source policy, there must be \"no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness.\" Therefore, false announcements, hacks, or misleading information will not count.", "post_id": 26109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721587460.060966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721587460.060966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.960153295170031 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.505527334334535e-06, 0.00018088445664803945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3332517413289469e-05, 6.5062746000129215e-06, 0.0, 7.108112656424486e-05, 0.0005044550597752829, 3.569883819872081e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004643860575110063, 0.09896063718638741, 0.0002646413377034751, 0.00035970306560069356, 2.3120420394383268e-05, 0.0, 0.012516958074540318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026651263728025253, 0.0005933083370631456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000547372867778377, 0.0, 0.0001886202511031783, 0.28506831875091365, 0.0004270051226036597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020786080511261623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029425231274072403, 0.0, 0.13467781753719507, 0.0, 0.00017083808332495824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039391139736447964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07211931967050726, 0.1415987515348361, 0.02179801149046511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029009465466422614, 0.13087260081461588, 0.1029985796981459, 8.010649315569889e-05, 0.0, 0.22523230033995545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16016990565652117, 0.19324075988387562, 0.09303603235233521, 0.0011934316580798714, 0.0, 0.0034313746305100605, 0.0, 0.31092366719442743, 0.052982916055831254, 0.03978483079815801, 0.0433200120656935, 0.0, 0.04592616282751616, 0.00985861888158843, 0.0, 0.015104825963231136, 0.1701750092450657, 0.05863768250378744, 0.004662653985115779, 0.017754015377662535, 0.04192400900312507, 0.008347382052181333, 0.032568407308182966, 0.02493763540865205, 0.06211631342802587, 0.017269315549752633, 23.090804227523147 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.544392411180227, "coverage": 0.1423264812035097, "baseline_score": -0.3214673592553507, "spot_peer_score": 47.18578870866586, "peer_archived_score": 6.544392411180227, "baseline_archived_score": -0.3214673592553507, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.18578870866586 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721583220.002084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721583220.002084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33169399779081576, 0.6683060022091842 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.\n\nThe [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee." }, { "id": 26102, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astronauts-suni-williams-and-butch-wilmore-be-on-earth-on-august-15", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.982809Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.482888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26102, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.982809Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on August 15?\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface as of 12 noon on August 15, 2024 Eastern time, based on credible sources such as reporting from NASA, SpaceX, Boeing, or Roscosmos.", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.\n\nThe question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. Both astronauts do not need to return to Earth at the same time.\n\n\"Earth's surface\" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.", "post_id": 26102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880144.228621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880144.228621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5604080354681574 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9052417925526632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26487484835486463, 0.031223319598590725, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1608171544828267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.5448487421029051, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6085612152656917, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -18.442457113742766, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -18.442457113742766 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880144.266194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880144.266194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.49490483197943247, 0.5050951680205675 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on August 15?\n\n" }, { "id": 26101, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tiktok-us-be-sold-to-a-us-entity-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.906521Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.658121Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26101, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.906521Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete but must at least be announced. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.\n\nIf TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26101, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880158.305322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880158.305322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.250648420334977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.36164207566756346, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2584365853780068, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0743140688862265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 1.481158775071362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2566009934919624, 0.031223319598590725, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0147867716879284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9142654591121933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.571355017736374, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06147333520720088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880158.339759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880158.339759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.86038214996436, 0.13961785003563995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance." }, { "id": 26100, "title": "Will Robert F. 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Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.824674Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before September 24, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.\n\nHowever, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.\n\nAny revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.", "post_id": 26100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880182.004411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.20596559278331383 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880182.004411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.20596559278331383 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7940344072166862, 0.20596559278331383 ], "means": [ 0.2603556099185143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.015606161031332, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.7716489706412398, 0.025222677064637565, 0.5923757176705159, 0.18760077787182092, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.6307327315398252, 0.2635521314790337, 0.5409331487608244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7514850819311809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.5428156069823342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9709735782755959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -127.95247442111052, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -127.95247442111052 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880182.045169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880182.045169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8924014980626098, 0.10759850193739023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates." }, { "id": 26099, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-nuclear-armed-state-emerge-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.580564Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.020632Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26099, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.580564Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Sept 30, 2024, credible evidence becomes available that a country not currently possessing nuclear weapons has successfully developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The current nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.\n\nThis evidence can come from one or more of the following sources:\n\nAn official announcement or acknowledgment by the government of the country in question that it has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\nConfirmation from a recognized international organization (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) or a major intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, FSB) that the country in question has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\nDetection and verification of a nuclear test by a global monitoring network, such as the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), with widespread international consensus on the identity of the country responsible for the test", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880165.581624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03437426727177077 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880165.581624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03437426727177077 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11613066728789435 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4000965096333209, 0.674388392608588, 0.5671862384388243, 0.2107293143308072, 1.5608471029642135, 0.0, 1.135948535421104, 0.02256479543824977, 0.0, 1.4773591957078738, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.7584485688636057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49587384386977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880165.623144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880165.623144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9350545265069595, 0.06494547349304043 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests." } ] }
