Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2480
{ "count": 6346, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2500", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2460", "results": [ { "id": 28155, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-comex-gold-spot-prices-exceed-2700-per-ounce-before-october-1-2024-according-to-yahoo-finance", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.620921Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.684509Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28155, "title": "Will Comex Gold Spot prices exceed $2,700 per ounce before October 1, 2024 according to Yahoo Finance?", "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.620921Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 12, 2024, gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,591.30 amid news of possible interest rate cuts and increased risks of recession and a weakening labor market, with seasonally-adjusted jobless claims going up last week to 230,000, an increase of 2,000.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the closing price for gold spot prices exceeds $2,700 for any day before October 1, 2024, according to [this](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC%3DF/history/) Yahoo Finance link. If this does not occur, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 28155, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726323345.351292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.685 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726323345.351292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.685 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31499999999999995, 0.685 ], "means": [ 0.6316809759057596 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2965119943566896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9580309923082057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46285982141025983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5577899827306472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.734395102629566, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6132274672564839, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -66.65762662748085, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -66.65762662748085 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726323345.397368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726323345.397368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5110279475242813, 0.48897205247571873 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 12, 2024, gold prices reached record highs, closing at $2,591.30 amid news of possible interest rate cuts and increased risks of recession and a weakening labor market, with seasonally-adjusted jobless claims going up last week to 230,000, an increase of 2,000." }, { "id": 28154, "title": "Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kennedy-iyere-win-the-september-21-2024-edo-state-gubernatorial-election-in-nigeria", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.369194Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.270513Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28154, "title": "Will Kennedy Iyere win the September 21, 2024 Edo state gubernatorial election in Nigeria?", "created_at": "2024-09-13T12:40:07.369194Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-22T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Human rights activist Kennedy Iyere is one of the 17 [candidates](https://inecnigeria.org/?page_id=13150) for governor of Edo State. His nomination was the subject of [some controversy](https://www.thecable.ng/accord-party-kennedy-iyere-is-our-recognised-candidate-for-edo-guber/) within his party, the Accord Party. Accord does not currently hold any seats in Nigeria's National Assembly. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kennedy Iyere is the next governor of Edo State in Nigeria, based on the results of the September 21, 2024 gubernatorial election according to the [Independent National Electoral Commission](https://inecnigeria.org/) of Nigeria or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports on the election results. ", "fine_print": "Although Nigeria typically counts its votes within a few days, if there is no declared winner before October 1, 2024, this question will be annulled. ", "post_id": 28154, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726323351.814539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726323351.814539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.057817035298612256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8153249963609456, 2.6572851067877123, 0.7496138327879511, 1.0081007269761664, 0.0, 1.1983786755690566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37904745524951783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.2662853371938037, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 95.60566524124029, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 95.60566524124029 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726323351.857327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726323351.857327, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9957459819162781, 0.004254018083721995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Human rights activist Kennedy Iyere is one of the 17 [candidates](https://inecnigeria.org/?page_id=13150) for governor of Edo State. His nomination was the subject of [some controversy](https://www.thecable.ng/accord-party-kennedy-iyere-is-our-recognised-candidate-for-edo-guber/) within his party, the Accord Party. Accord does not currently hold any seats in Nigeria's National Assembly. " }, { "id": 28100, "title": "Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?", "short_title": "US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?", "url_title": "US Electric Vehicle Sales Share >35% in 2030?", "slug": "us-electric-vehicle-sales-share-35-in-2030", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-11T07:34:13.602669Z", "published_at": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-29T05:52:12.528744Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-30T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28100, "title": "Will the 2030 light duty pure battery electric vehicle sales share exceed 35% in the US through November 2030?", "created_at": "2024-09-11T07:34:13.602669Z", "open_time": "2024-09-14T13:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-17T13:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-17T13:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-12-15T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-11-30T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-11-30T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For the purposes of the background information and question resolution, EV will refer to pure battery electric vehicles. \n\nEV adoption had surged in the 2010s, largely due to dramatic prices in the decline of battery prices. According to [Bloomberg New Energy Finance](https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/), battery prices had declined from $780 per kWh in 2013 to $160 per kWh in 2020. Unfortunately, the early 2020s have not presented steep battery price declines, and the new headline in late 2023 and 2024 has switched from unbridled optimism in the EV revolution to disquietude about the sluggishness and challenges of the EV transition. \n\nThe author posed this question to assess whether one should adjust their expectation of the EV transition in the context of the slow sales growth in 2024. The author also intended to explore the dependence on EV sales on retail electricity prices with [this question about retail electricity prices in 2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27993/electricity-in-us-in-2030-below-11-cents-kwh/) as the parent question for a conditional.\n\n[Robert Walton of Utility Drive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/US-electric-vehicle-EV-adoption-slowdown-BOA-Bloomberg/719826/) wrote:\n\n>>The EV penetration rate has averaged 6.8% so far this year, down from 7.5% in 2023, according to the research note. BofA analysts say they now expect EVs to make up about 8% of vehicle sales in 2024, 14% in 2027 and 29% in 2030. [The 6.8 percent figure is consistent with the [2024 Argonne National Laboratory data](https://www.anl.gov/sites/www/files/2024-08/Total%20Sales%20for%20Website_July%202024.pdf) where the portion of battery electric vehicles sold in 2024 is around 7.5 percent.]\n\n>>President Biden set a goal for 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric by 2030.\n\n>>Earlier this year, BofA Global Research forecast an approximately 10% penetration for 2024, 18% in 2027 and about 33% in 2030, a spokesperson for the firm said in an email.\n\nBank of America composed a [brief report](https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/ev-transition-out-of-charge.pdf) in January 2024 that confirms that they predicted 33 percent EV penetration for 2030 in early 2024.\n\nGiven the Bank of America forecasts, 35 percent in 2030 seems a little ambitious but still within the range of probable and realistic outcomes. Hence, 35 percent will be used as the milestone for this question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2030 through November 2030, inclusive, the sales share of light duty battery electric vehicles (BEVs) is greater than 35% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).\n\n\"Battery electric vehicle\" does NOT include hybrid-electric or plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.", "fine_print": "Specifically, light duty vehicle sales figures published by Argonne in the [monthly historical data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data) will be used when data for November 2030 first becomes available. (Updates or revisions subsequent to the first posting of data for November 2030 will be irrelevant to the question resolution.) The percentage will be computed by using the total BEV sales from January through November 2030 compared to total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales over the same period. The question does **not** require each month to exceed 35% sales share.\n\nAs of the time of this question's creation, Argonne typically posts data around the middle of the month for the preceding month. For example the July 2024 data was posted as of [August 13, 2024](https://web.archive.org/web/20240813101023/https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates). Therefore we expect November 2030 data to be posted by December 15, 2030. If the data for November 2030 is not posted by that date, resolution will wait until it is. If it is not posted before July 1, 2031, this question will be **annulled**.\n\nIf Argonne no longer reports the data, Metaculus may use an alternative [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) of data at its discretion or annul the question. For any other edge cases that may make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762338090.462219, "end_time": 1763237161.018869, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762338090.462219, "end_time": 1763237161.018869, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.32975438249905953 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.162797292249664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.62366871627356, 0.955929299926919, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7699365855848301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288657.437521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288657.437521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8934037116971566, 0.10659628830284341 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For the purposes of the background information and question resolution, EV will refer to pure battery electric vehicles. \n\nEV adoption had surged in the 2010s, largely due to dramatic prices in the decline of battery prices. According to [Bloomberg New Energy Finance](https://about.bnef.com/blog/lithium-ion-battery-pack-prices-hit-record-low-of-139-kwh/), battery prices had declined from $780 per kWh in 2013 to $160 per kWh in 2020. Unfortunately, the early 2020s have not presented steep battery price declines, and the new headline in late 2023 and 2024 has switched from unbridled optimism in the EV revolution to disquietude about the sluggishness and challenges of the EV transition. \n\nThe author posed this question to assess whether one should adjust their expectation of the EV transition in the context of the slow sales growth in 2024. The author also intended to explore the dependence on EV sales on retail electricity prices with [this question about retail electricity prices in 2030](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/27993/electricity-in-us-in-2030-below-11-cents-kwh/) as the parent question for a conditional.\n\n[Robert Walton of Utility Drive](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/US-electric-vehicle-EV-adoption-slowdown-BOA-Bloomberg/719826/) wrote:\n\n>>The EV penetration rate has averaged 6.8% so far this year, down from 7.5% in 2023, according to the research note. BofA analysts say they now expect EVs to make up about 8% of vehicle sales in 2024, 14% in 2027 and 29% in 2030. [The 6.8 percent figure is consistent with the [2024 Argonne National Laboratory data](https://www.anl.gov/sites/www/files/2024-08/Total%20Sales%20for%20Website_July%202024.pdf) where the portion of battery electric vehicles sold in 2024 is around 7.5 percent.]\n\n>>President Biden set a goal for 50% of all new vehicle sales in the U.S. to be electric by 2030.\n\n>>Earlier this year, BofA Global Research forecast an approximately 10% penetration for 2024, 18% in 2027 and about 33% in 2030, a spokesperson for the firm said in an email.\n\nBank of America composed a [brief report](https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/ev-transition-out-of-charge.pdf) in January 2024 that confirms that they predicted 33 percent EV penetration for 2030 in early 2024.\n\nGiven the Bank of America forecasts, 35 percent in 2030 seems a little ambitious but still within the range of probable and realistic outcomes. Hence, 35 percent will be used as the milestone for this question." }, { "id": 28072, "title": "Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?", "short_title": "1 million Russian losses before 2026", "url_title": "1 million Russian losses before 2026", "slug": "1-million-russian-losses-before-2026", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T18:55:30.526554Z", "published_at": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.192438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "comment_count": 29, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28072, "title": "Will 1 million Russian personnel losses be reported before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T18:55:30.526554Z", "open_time": "2024-09-13T20:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-16T20:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-16T20:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-03T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-15T12:45:55.394007Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-12T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nAlthough it's difficult to prove these numbers, and it's typical to exagerrate enemy losses during wars, these reports, in general, correlate well with battle intensity observed through public videos and OSINT data.\n\nSince 2022, it has reached more than 625,000 in total (around 640/day), but the battles intensified since April 2024, reaching more than 1000/day on most days. With this pace, 1 million casualties will be reached in September 2025.\n\nHistorical data are also tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before 1 January 2026, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reports 1 million or more Russian personnel losses on their official public media pages on [Facebook](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua), [Telegram](https://t.me/GeneralStaffZSU), [X.com](https://x.com/GeneralStaffUA), and other social networks.\n\nIf before 1 January 2026 no such report is published, the question resolves as **No**. This includes the case when the General Staff of the AFU stops publishing their data due to a ceasefire or peace agreement.\n\nIf, however, there are no credible reports about the ceasefire or peace agreement, but there are no new reports for more than 30 days in a row, the question may be **Annulled** at the discretion of Metaculus admins.", "fine_print": "Note that \"Personnel losses\" in this context are _killed and wounded_ soldiers and that wounded soldiers may return to the battlefield later.\n\nIn the past there were at least one occasion on [May 27, 2023](https://www.facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua/posts/594141432898939?ref=embed_post) when the error in the previous day's report was admitted and corrected. For this reason, the actual resolution should be delayed for 2 days.\n\nHistorical trackers mentioned in the Background information ([russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/), [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)) may be used as secondary resolution sources if the main resolution pages are banned/unavailable.", "post_id": 28072, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749356271.863535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749356271.863535, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9227001759128942 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.052917423781649, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0391307538660947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04008224875913337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337183691184219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045661515517217234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14329328159663618, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10267401358030756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06984569336479438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24158469511885405, 0.019184847683859318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.946177418179385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.639220315973123 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 28.58184517064026, "peer_score": 44.69384920012259, "coverage": 0.5728336012863386, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999555190469045, "spot_peer_score": 66.53717847431554, "spot_baseline_score": 28.688114778816153, "baseline_archived_score": 28.58184517064026, "peer_archived_score": 44.69384920012259, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.53717847431554, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 28.688114778816153 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287841.66183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287841.66183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5717239084332404, 0.42827609156675966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 180, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in 2022, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine releases their daily estimation of Russian losses in personnel, vehicles, aircraft, and other military equipment on their pages in social networks (see links in Resolution Criteria).\n\nAlthough it's difficult to prove these numbers, and it's typical to exagerrate enemy losses during wars, these reports, in general, correlate well with battle intensity observed through public videos and OSINT data.\n\nSince 2022, it has reached more than 625,000 in total (around 640/day), but the battles intensified since April 2024, reaching more than 1000/day on most days. With this pace, 1 million casualties will be reached in September 2025.\n\nHistorical data are also tracked by independent trackers\nsuch as [russian-casualties-in-ua](https://russian-casualties.in.ua/) , [Combat.FYI](https://combat.fyi/) and in the [2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset](https://github.com/PetroIvaniuk/2022-Ukraine-Russia-War-Dataset/blob/main/data/russia_losses_personnel.json)." }, { "id": 28070, "title": "Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Cleveland Guardians in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-york-yankees-win-more-games-than-the-cleveland-guardians-in-the-2024-mlb-season-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:53:04.989513Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.038070Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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If this is not the case, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "In the case of a tie for the number of wins between the two teams, this question resolves as **No**.", "post_id": 28070, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150761.41601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150761.41601, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6022118183423338 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.3415440718595426, 0.16798662710965054, 1.449641863234342, 0.0, 0.23120116479925007, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.07824633015225661, 0.577585526399994, 1.4684463027225263, 0.6308407491715394, 0.11160910633783082, 1.6687527598243457, 0.0492373430437701, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150761.454039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150761.454039, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.460198173807852, 0.539801826192148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 9, 2024, the Yankees and Guardians had 82 wins and 81 wins, respectively." }, { "id": 28069, "title": "Will Rivian make any posts at its Stories site before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rivian-make-any-posts-at-its-stories-site-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:53:04.890929Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.453887Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T23:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T23:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 28069, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150774.002508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8404 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150774.002508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8404 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7375868778036686 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 1.151740807835127, 1.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.12200872167164427, 0.4271940028000073, 0.7038566110035541, 0.28521765874179833, 0.6176099273594333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3559153758998531, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150774.038399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150774.038399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25625567922465264, 0.7437443207753474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 8, 2024, Rivian's most recent post was timestamped August 15, 2024." }, { "id": 28046, "title": "Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-lithium-carbonate-cnyt-price-fall-below-70000-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.779653Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.146205Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-03T14:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-03T14:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium), falls below 70,000, for any day's closing price, after September 10, 2024, and before October 1, 2024. \n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the lithium carbonate price does not fall below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237165.295805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237165.295805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43333333333333335, 0.5666666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5341534368318166 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.018055332987362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.8456151362805138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7902876712206909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 1.183911994075013, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.8835211636126213, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -20.645087746742632, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -20.645087746742632 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237165.341819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237165.341819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6605560926614606, 0.33944390733853935 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 87, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024." }, { "id": 28045, "title": "Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-afds-vote-share-be-less-than-or-equal-to-28-in-the-2024-brandenburg-state-election", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.676420Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.675261Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 99, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28045, "title": "Will AfD's vote share be less than or equal to 28% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.676420Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-26T20:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.", "post_id": 28045, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237010.660104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237010.660104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.5394802121427765 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7606548029912223, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.7076982232779687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.09283202621282585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3747529599488227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.03573243764150962, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9350248331675358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.214824819861367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237010.705819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237010.705819, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38731968304625985, 0.6126803169537401 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach." }, { "id": 28044, "title": "Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-afds-vote-share-be-more-than-28-and-less-than-or-equal-to-30-in-the-2024-brandenburg-state-election", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.573257Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.296971Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 97, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28044, "title": "Will AfD's vote share be more than 28% and less than or equal to 30% in the 2024 Brandenburg state election?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.573257Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-26T20:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. 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These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the percent of valid votes that Alternative for Germany (AfD) got in the final results of the 2024 Bradenburg state election as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "This question will be **Annulled** if the election does not take place before October 1, 2024. It will also be **Annulled** if less than 95% of the votes have been counted before October 7, 2024. If at least 95% but less than 100% of votes have been counted before October 7, the question will resolve based on the counted votes.", "post_id": 28042, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236967.223252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236967.223252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.35471502561854656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.389378829960826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.08204409557077456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5643058880661966, 0.8762436826744726, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 1.672053247471222, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.41588412507835687, 0.1405470336200478, 1.3994584593095432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06581935229665717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236967.271858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236967.271858, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9000406182174712, 0.09995938178252883 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 92, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Germany is a federal republic comprised of 16 states. These states have considerable legislative power, as they influence national laws through the Bundesrat and have the power to enact state-specific legislation through their own parliaments. On September 22, 2024, the state of Brandenburg will hold its state elections.\n\nOne of the key contenders in this election is the far-right populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD). Founded in 2013, the AfD has gained increasing support in recent years, particularly in eastern Germany. The party is known for its Eurosceptic stance and its strong opposition to immigration, especially from Muslim countries. The German judiciary has classified AfD as a \"suspected extremist\" party, although the party does not reject democracy. (See [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany))\n\nAfD performed strongly in the recent elections of other east Germany states, coming in second in Saxony with 30.6% of the vote and first in Thuringia with 32.8%. In Brandenburg, the party also holds substantial support, having garnered 23.5% in the 2019 elections. Recent polls suggest the AfD’s popularity has increased as the upcoming elections approach." }, { "id": 28041, "title": "Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-4-or-more-major-atlantic-hurricane-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.093034Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.625608Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28041, "title": "Will 4 or more major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:23.093034Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28041, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237035.667774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237035.667774, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32145940000729817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41097508049776743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1919432025219816, 0.33432944568041745, 0.3733687775975512, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.7949009880760955, 0.0, 0.6620918089881571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.121949719148057, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0902215738421042, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237035.711568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237035.711568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9062950663025446, 0.09370493369745535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28040, "title": "Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-3-major-atlantic-hurricane-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.973142Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.017043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28040, "title": "Will exactly 3 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.973142Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28040, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236986.274697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236986.274697, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2532819265957379 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.15975533849496593, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.34467871740862843, 0.33432944568041745, 2.931826420044769, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.7253542427998305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.4814477137532353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0469369562341933, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726236986.316304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726236986.316304, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9345275262881033, 0.06547247371189673 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28039, "title": "Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-2-major-atlantic-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.850897Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.611197Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 92, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28039, "title": "Will exactly 2 major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.850897Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237140.008426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237140.008426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2375 ], "centers": [ 0.32 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6799999999999999, 0.32 ], "means": [ 0.32596747968838563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7543255204204855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517, 0.0, 0.04916130302451003, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 1.0851725996364125, 0.3935277555318061, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.604309663708944, 0.23237033748995323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3803845176444547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2821782577850747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237140.037026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237140.037026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8930187154545792, 0.10698128454542083 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28038, "title": "Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-1-major-atlantic-hurricane-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.727119Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.009826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 96, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28038, "title": "Will exactly 1 major Atlantic hurricane (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.727119Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28038, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237511.968027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237511.968027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.3819631173545903 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4794868403660972, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6477916257373127, 0.3268262380230357, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 2.592502019695917, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 1.531115942661232, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8487726726015246, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 1.3381970348852665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -47.39311883324123, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -47.39311883324123 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237511.99528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237511.99528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8054721040762246, 0.1945278959237754 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28037, "title": "Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-major-atlantic-hurricanes-category-3-or-higher-occur-in-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.409775Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.084067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28037, "title": "Will any major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) occur in September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:41:22.409775Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-27T23:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes (Category 3 or higher) that occur in September 2024, as reported by the [National Hurricane Center (NHC)](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc) of the United States National Weather Service.", "fine_print": "- A major hurricane is defined as a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h), corresponding to a Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.\n- If a hurricane reaches Category 3 status or higher at any point during September 2024, it will be counted, even if it later weakens or dissipates within the same month.\n- The question will be resolved using storm reports and data published by the National Hurricane Center as of October 1, 2024. Any subsequent revisions upgrading or downgrading a storm's intensity will not be considered. The NHC [Tropical Cyclone Advisory Archive](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2024/) and [Monthly Atlantic Tropical Weather Summary](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWSAT.shtml) may be used.", "post_id": 28037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237088.479945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237088.479945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7014293401424767 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9473668135401643, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 1.4230039894176962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.761419003562789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 2.2638271021388925, 0.0, 0.262743382373636, 0.19330086451826228, 0.8277762550959286, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726237088.515269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726237088.515269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4172863782670717, 0.5827136217329283 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Atlantic hurricane season typically runs from June 1 to November 30, with peak activity occurring in August, September, and October. Major hurricanes, classified as Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, have sustained wind speeds of at least 111 miles per hour (178 km/h) and can cause significant damage and loss of life.\n\nIn recent years, the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes have been a topic of concern, with many scientists attributing the increase in powerful storms to [climate change](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season). Forecasting the number of major hurricanes in a given month can help communities, governments, and industries prepare for potential impacts.\n\nThis question focuses on the number of major Atlantic hurricanes that will occur specifically in September 2024, as this month is typically one of the most active periods of the hurricane season." }, { "id": 28024, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-intel-get-dropped-from-the-dow-jones-industrial-average-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:26:13.494718Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.644204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28024, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:26:13.494718Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting either on the official announcement or that Intel has been or will be removed from the index. \n\nIf no such announcement or reporting occurs before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before October 1, 2024 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date, if that removal date is after September 30, 2024.\n\nForecasters will note that this question makes certain implicit assumptions such as the DJIA index continuing to exist in its present form. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 28024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150785.590827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150785.590827, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6642720235361775 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8322595053523607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.422729524609672, 0.12856727458371708, 0.9366730711856619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5895174227856284, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7601798671538725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0963055375094604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.8682671503582153, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726150785.624293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726150785.624293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2865155413767362, 0.7134844586232638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"" }, { "id": 28022, "title": "Will SpaceX make any new posts on its Updates page before October 1, 2024? 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", "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:20:21.310902Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of September 8, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped August 12, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a new post appears at SpaceX's Updates page, which can be accessed at [this address](https://www.spacex.com/updates/), timestamped after the close of this question and before October 1, 2024. If there is no such post, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "No other web address than the one mentioned will count. If the web page is down when a Metaculus Admin attempts to access it, this question resolves as No--forecasters are therefore encouraged if they think there is a material chance of the page being down to incorporate that into their forecast.", "post_id": 28022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064144.527683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064144.527683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7569948968244118 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16326045844922002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.3325315572279212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.9469012232091341, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3382643892801618, 0.24233740095005632, 0.5928733813562592, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.55735190783232, 0.0, 0.8602629493964473, 0.25386934702820263, 0.0, 0.11919235601565477, 0.09122295403992013, 0.34972837240223686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.6490564168471212, 0.07687319121951613, 0.006737946999085467 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064144.562616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064144.562616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19767002712549686, 0.8023299728745031 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of September 8, 2024, SpaceX's most recent post was timestamped August 12, 2024." }, { "id": 28021, "title": "Will the New York Yankees win more games than the Baltimore Orioles in the 2024 MLB season, before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-new-york-yankees-win-more-games-than-the-baltimore-orioles-in-the-2024-mlb-season-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-10T13:20:21.212616Z", "published_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.754091Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if either of these events occur before October 1, 2024:\n\n- The Boeing Starliner Program ceases to be part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. \n- Boeing withdraws from the NASA Commercial Crew Program.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064152.079951, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.41100000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064152.079951, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.41100000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.589, 0.41100000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.3937898555457139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4745033483135866, 0.0, 0.02074843352162435, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.07064756985194835, 0.1045235772690511, 0.4264383326117065, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7327271569085899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.033113512353756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7801350150636246, 0.19376657685266277, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0468347457847071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6490564168471212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 23.633953916837363, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.633953916837363 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726064152.124346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726064152.124346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7891631988486919, 0.21083680115130807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program." } ] }
