Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2500
{ "count": 6346, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2520", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2480", "results": [ { "id": 28008, "title": "Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-weekly-30-year-fixed-mortgage-rate-be-above-635-on-october-1-2024-according-to-freddie-mac", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-09T12:49:23.794385Z", "published_at": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.407087Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28008, "title": "Will the US weekly 30-year fixed mortgage rate be above 6.35% on October 1, 2024, according to Freddie Mac?", "created_at": "2024-09-09T12:49:23.794385Z", "open_time": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of September 8, 2024 was 6.35%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the 30 year fixed-rate mortgage exceeds 6.35% at the Freddie Mac tracker page at [this location](https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms), when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024. If the 30-Yr FRM is less than or equal to 6.35%, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The resolution amount of the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be the one displayed at the moment Metaculus Admins access the Freddie Mac tracker page on October 1, 2024. It will be the rate listed as the 30-Yr FRM under \"Primary Mortgage Market Survey®\". It will be immaterial what period that covers, and the question will resolve based on whatever figure is shown. The time of day on October 1, 2024, that the page will be accessed is also not going to be listed; Metaculus Admins will merely access the webpage at their convenience at some point on that date and record the rate listed.", "post_id": 28008, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725977744.902919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725977744.902919, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4385367359865054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 1.733775796784438, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.16287400013953018, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6660863254207812, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.8284892676540827, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725977744.940207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725977744.940207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7039177955999979, 0.2960822044000021 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 30-year fixed rate mortgage according to the resolution sounce as of September 8, 2024 was 6.35%." }, { "id": 28007, "title": "Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-national-price-of-gasoline-exceed-325-per-gallon-when-accessed-by-metaculus-admins-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-09T12:49:23.699154Z", "published_at": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.882481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 28007, "title": "Will the national price of gasoline exceed $3.25 per gallon when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-09T12:49:23.699154Z", "open_time": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T19:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T19:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The national price of a gallon of gasoline is listed by AAA as $3.273 as of September 8, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the national price of gasoline (\"Today’s AAA National Average\") exceeds $3.250 at the AAA tracker page at [this location](https://gasprices.aaa.com/), when accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024. If the price is less than or equal to $3.250, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The resolution price will be the one displayed at the moment Metaculus Admins access the AAA tracker page on October 1, 2024. It will be the price listed as Today’s AAA National Average.\" Please note that it will be immaterial the date of the price, so for example if it lists \"Price as of 9/30/24\" but the page is accessed by Metaculus Admins on October 1, 2024, that is the price that will count for resolution. The time of day on October 1, 2024, that the page will be accessed is also not going to be listed; Metaculus Admins will merely access the webpage at their convenience at some point on that date and record the price listed.", "post_id": 28007, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725977760.028247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "centers": [ 0.49000000000000005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725977760.028247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "centers": [ 0.49000000000000005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49000000000000005 ], "means": [ 0.4843647732870868 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5930148737026251, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9022252017070729, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.2427133491180542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.6226792067904565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.8676520897500979, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7470793828518291, 0.628822418409993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5619534488872278, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37213557006815545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725977760.062102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725977760.062102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6316116145954545, 0.36838838540454555 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The national price of a gallon of gasoline is listed by AAA as $3.273 as of September 8, 2024." }, { "id": 28006, "title": "Will Kamala Harris say \"I'm speaking\" in the presidential debate with Donald Trump?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kamala-harris-say-im-speaking-in-the-presidential-debate-with-donald-trump", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-09T12:49:23.541059Z", "published_at": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.511294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Harris is well-known for saying \"I'm speaking\" in response to her debate opponents trying to interrupt her, such as in her 2020 vice presidential debate against Mike Pence. Notably, however, the microphones are currently planned in her debate with Trump to be muted for the candidate unless it's their turn to speak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris utters the literal phrase \"I'm speaking\" or \"I am speaking\" in a formal, live presidential debate with Donald Trump before September 11, 2024. 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Harris is well-known for saying \"I'm speaking\" in response to her debate opponents trying to interrupt her, such as in her 2020 vice presidential debate against Mike Pence. Notably, however, the microphones are currently planned in her debate with Trump to be muted for the candidate unless it's their turn to speak." }, { "id": 28002, "title": "Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Lithium carbonate price 70,000 CNY/T Oct '24", "url_title": "Lithium carbonate price 70,000 CNY/T Oct '24", "slug": "lithium-carbonate-price-70000-cnyt-oct-24", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-09T07:00:31.196559Z", "published_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.985836Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T22:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 68, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 28002, "title": "Will the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price fall below 70,000 before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-09T07:00:31.196559Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-13T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T22:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-07T22:13:39.766506Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the lithium carbonate (CNY/T) price, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/lithium), falls below 70,000, for any day's closing price, after September 10, 2024, and before October 1, 2024. \n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the lithium carbonate price does not fall below 70,000 CNY/T during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 28002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754906.606212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754906.606212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.010129643263903209 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.173998540494456, 2.7144798924341536, 1.0571808619765612, 0.11576349060119034, 0.039753439271563294, 0.4720888817634713, 0.005951937961528494, 0.0, 0.020621981324100598, 0.03585734392959071, 0.0485569039707762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000805507209830206, 0.0, 0.012495570994977083, 0.027293938628526845, 0.004176477489548196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00946706080046129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.0, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013548757078691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016749238171012292 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.638573910702945, "peer_score": 20.805374346485216, "coverage": 0.9999214638460102, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999214638460102, "spot_peer_score": 49.94454188411703, "baseline_archived_score": 35.638573910702945, "peer_archived_score": 20.805374346485216, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 49.94454188411703 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754906.6536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754906.6536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lithium carbonate, a key component in electric vehicle (EV) batteries, has experienced a significant price decline in recent months. As of September 2024, lithium carbonate prices in China have stabilized at around CNY 75,000 per tonne, the lowest level in over three years, before dropping again to 72,500 to close out the first week of trading. \n\nThis recent decline in lithium prices is part of a larger trend that has seen spot prices [fall over 80% since December 2022](https://www.bradley.com/insights/publications/2024/02/lithium-prices-in-free-fall-implications-for-clean-energy-transition-in-the-private-sector). The sudden deceleration in demand for lithium, particularly in the EV industry, caught suppliers by surprise, leading to a surplus that placed downward pressure on prices.\n\nDespite the current slump, the long-term outlook for lithium demand remains strong, as governments and private sector initiatives continue to push for a transition away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy solutions. According to a study by [McKinsey](https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/automotive-and-assembly/our-insights/battery-2030-resilient-sustainable-and-circular), global demand for lithium-ion batteries is predicted to grow from around 700 gigawatt hours (GWh) in 2022 to 4,700 GWh in 2030, driven primarily by EVs, stationary storage, and consumer electronics.\n\n[S&P Global](https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/market-insights/latest-news/metals/121923-us-canada-lithium-prospects-hope-to-advance-in-2024-despite-headwinds) projects that lithium carbonate prices will stabilize near current levels in a range between $20,000/mt and $25,000/mt from 2024 to 2027. However, given the recent volatility and the potential for further market disruptions, the question remains whether lithium carbonate prices will continue to decline in the near term, potentially falling below CNY 70,000 per tonne before October 1, 2024." }, { "id": 28000, "title": "Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Deli Meat safe to eat?", "url_title": "Deli Meat safe to eat?", "slug": "deli-meat-safe-to-eat", "author_id": 205195, "author_username": "Jaz", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-08T18:43:21.423361Z", "published_at": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.854379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 28000, "title": "Will Boar’s Head deli meat be safe to eat by November 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-08T18:43:21.423361Z", "open_time": "2024-09-17T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-20T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-22T01:18:33.605589Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-06T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products:\n\n>The problem was discovered when FSIS was notified that a liverwurst sample collected by the Maryland Department of Health tested positive for L. monocytogenes. The Maryland Department of Health, in collaboration with the Baltimore City Health Department, collected an unopened liverwurst product from a retail store for testing as part of an outbreak investigation of L. monocytogenes infections. Further testing determined the product sample tested positive for the outbreak strain. Anyone concerned about illness should contact a healthcare provider. \n\n>FSIS is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health partners to investigate the multistate outbreak of L. monocytogenes infections linked to meats sliced at delis. As of July 30, 2024, 34 sick people have been identified in 13 states, including 33 hospitalizations and two deaths. Samples were collected from sick people from May 29, 2024, to July 12, 2024. The investigation is ongoing, and FSIS continues to work with the CDC and state partners. \n\nFor further context and background please see: \n\n- Forbes: [Everything To Know About The Listeria Outbreaks—As Boar’s Head Plant Closes Indefinitely](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/09/13/everything-to-know-about-the-listeria-outbreaks-as-boars-head-plant-closes-indefinitely/)\n\n- AP: [Recall of Boar’s Head deli meats announced during investigation of listeria outbreak](https://www.news10.com/news/national/ap-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meats-announced-during-investigation-of-listeria-outbreak/)\n\n- [July 2024 Boar's Head Product Recall Information](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the Boar's Head Provisions Co., Inc. [recall posted](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/boars-head-provisions-co--expands-recall-ready-eat-meat-and-poultry-products-due) by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed before November 30, 2024. \n\nIf the recall is still shown as Active when the above link is accessed by Metaculus on or after November 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "No other resolution source will be considered.", "post_id": 28000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732179703.423844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732179703.423844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5921592528437979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 1.5213394624823056, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9287429580134396 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 0.27555623415101016, "peer_score": 6.044297118906593, "coverage": 0.662186612767804, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9882747677605506, "spot_peer_score": 6.0744948793854725, "baseline_archived_score": 0.27555623415101016, "peer_archived_score": 6.044297118906593, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.0744948793854725 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287356.092959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287356.092959, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6286122030982546, 0.3713877969017454 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boar's Head listeria outbreak began in July 2024, causing [9 deaths](https://abcnews.go.com/Health/listeria-outbreak-left-57-sick-9-dead/story?id=113276874) linked to the outbreak. According to the USDA's [latest announcement](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024) recalling and additional 7 million additional pounds of ready-to-eat meat and poultry products:\n\n>The problem was discovered when FSIS was notified that a liverwurst sample collected by the Maryland Department of Health tested positive for L. monocytogenes. The Maryland Department of Health, in collaboration with the Baltimore City Health Department, collected an unopened liverwurst product from a retail store for testing as part of an outbreak investigation of L. monocytogenes infections. Further testing determined the product sample tested positive for the outbreak strain. Anyone concerned about illness should contact a healthcare provider. \n\n>FSIS is working with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state public health partners to investigate the multistate outbreak of L. monocytogenes infections linked to meats sliced at delis. As of July 30, 2024, 34 sick people have been identified in 13 states, including 33 hospitalizations and two deaths. Samples were collected from sick people from May 29, 2024, to July 12, 2024. The investigation is ongoing, and FSIS continues to work with the CDC and state partners. \n\nFor further context and background please see: \n\n- Forbes: [Everything To Know About The Listeria Outbreaks—As Boar’s Head Plant Closes Indefinitely](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2024/09/13/everything-to-know-about-the-listeria-outbreaks-as-boars-head-plant-closes-indefinitely/)\n\n- AP: [Recall of Boar’s Head deli meats announced during investigation of listeria outbreak](https://www.news10.com/news/national/ap-recall-of-boars-head-deli-meats-announced-during-investigation-of-listeria-outbreak/)\n\n- [July 2024 Boar's Head Product Recall Information](https://boarshead.com/products-recall-2024)" }, { "id": 27995, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Intel be dropped from the DJIA Sept '24?", "url_title": "Will Intel be dropped from the DJIA Sept '24?", "slug": "will-intel-be-dropped-from-the-djia-sept-24", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-07T13:05:43.239758Z", "published_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.391017Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", 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"bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27995, "title": "Will Intel get dropped from the Dow Jones Industrial Average before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-07T13:05:43.239758Z", "open_time": "2024-09-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-12T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** upon any official announcement or confirmation that Intel Corporation will no longer be a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting either on the official announcement or that Intel has been or will be removed from the index. \n\nIf no such announcement or reporting occurs before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Although removals from the index are generally effective immediately in order to forestall frontrunning, this is not a requirement for this question. All that is required is for there to be an announcement or confirmation before October 1, 2024 that Intel will be removed from the DJIA at any point in time. Therefore this question will resolve based on the announcement or confirmation, not on the actual removal date, if that removal date is after September 30, 2024.\n\nForecasters will note that this question makes certain implicit assumptions such as the DJIA index continuing to exist in its present form. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 27995, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754897.653822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754897.653822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005340574913923105 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.555362938123576, 3.9965783268273576, 0.3352365745384163, 0.004937664799221555, 0.04114727914664299, 0.012717395884100889, 0.001790116379774893, 0.010755654095857752, 0.0404697691408491, 0.0056879060040344945, 0.006438918665917176, 0.0, 0.0008735776126710382, 0.0026148795004889177, 0.0, 0.03559212902995307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015621335999661074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031043082091917864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.3198425722902085, "coverage": 0.9999179291644906, "baseline_score": 90.12266020006994, "spot_peer_score": 16.21278285772935, "peer_archived_score": 5.3198425722902085, "baseline_archived_score": 90.12266020006994, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.21278285772935 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754897.698923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754897.698923, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 330, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On September 4, 2024, Reuters [reported](https://www.reuters.com/technology/intels-dow-status-under-threat-struggling-chipmakers-shares-plunge-2024-09-03/) that Intel was \"likely\" to be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average: \n\n>A removal from the index will hurt Intel's already bruised reputation. The company has missed out on the artificial intelligence boom after passing on an OpenAI investment and losses are mounting at the contract manufacturing unit that the chipmaker has been building out in hopes of challenging TSMC [Taiwan Semiconductor].\n\n>To fund a turnaround, Intel suspended [its] dividend and announced layoffs affecting 15% of its workforce during its earnings report last month. But some analysts and a former board member believe the moves might be too little, too late for the chipmaker.\n\n>\"Intel being removed was likely a long time coming,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at the Carson Group.\n\n>The latest results may be the final push needed to finally see the company removed from the Dow, Detrick added.\n\nAlong with Microsoft, Intel first entered the Dow [in October 1999](https://money.cnn.com/1999/10/26/markets/dowindustrials/), replacing Goodyear and Sears at the time, in a move considered to be one of the largest shakeups to date in the index, which was over a century old at that point.\n\nEstablished [in 1896](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/100214/when-did-dow-jones-industrial-average-djia-begin.asp), the Dow Jones Industrial Average was intended as a small representative sample of the largest companies in the the US stock market, an objective it largely retains to this day. It's important to note that at the time, the word \"industrial\" had a broader meaning than it does today, for example [defined in 1912](https://www.google.com/books/edition/New_Websterian_1912_Dictionary/VkoZAAAAYAAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&bsq=industrial) as \"pertaining to productive industry,\" which is more akin to how the word \"corporate\" or \"business\" is defined today, as compared with the more narrow [modern definitions](https://dictionary.cambridge.org/us/dictionary/english/industrial) mentioning factories or production of goods. (The original DJIA components and their histories are listed [here](https://www.dividend.com/dividend-education/the-complete-history-of-the-original-dow-dozen/).)\n\nTwo contenders to replace Intel are: \n\n- Nvidia. Please see [Is Nvidia Going to Be Added to the Dow? Here's What 128 Years of History Suggests Will Happen.](https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/06/17/nvidia-added-to-dow-what-128-years-history-suggest/)\n\n- Texas Instruments. Mentioned by the Reuters report as \"a nearly century-old chipmaker with significant production capacity within the United States.\"" }, { "id": 27993, "title": "Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?", "short_title": "US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?", "url_title": "US 2030 Electricity Below 11 cents per kWh?", "slug": "us-2030-electricity-below-11-cents-per-kwh", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-07T04:07:39.520908Z", "published_at": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T23:09:41.730507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27993, "title": "Will the retail price of electricity in the US in 2030 be below 11 cents USD (2023 dollars)?", "created_at": "2024-09-07T04:07:39.520908Z", "open_time": "2024-09-12T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-15T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the early 2020s, electric vehicles (EVs) have seen [increases in market share](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates), calling into question what factors may influence future trends in electric vehicle adoption. One possible factor is the [effect of electricity prices](https://www.ucits.org/research-project/2020-12/). Electricity prices may not only influence EV adoption, but also be influenced by EV adoption if it creates a significant increase in electricity demand.\n\nThe [US Energy Information Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Information_Administration) (EIA) tracks retail electricity prices in its chart [Average retail price of electricity](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0). According to its [methodology](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/methodology.php), the EIA creates these estimates from a monthly survey of electric retailers.\n\nAs of September 7, 2024, the community prediction for the [retail price of electricity in the US in (2022 dollars)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14770/annual-average-electricity-price-in-us/) is 10.98 cents per kwh. Since that question deals with 2022 dollars, this question will use depreciated dollars compared to that question, hence the target here is a little more ambitious than the median community prediction. Since the retail price in 2023 is 12.73 cents per kwh, the positive resolution of this question will require a 15.6 percent real decrease in retail electricity prices. However, the *real* retail price of electricity has remained constant for two decades, since the retail price of electricity in 2001 is 7.29 cents per kwh. The quotient of the 2023 price and 2001 price is 1.72, which corresponds to [inflation calculators](https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator) showing that 1 dollar in 2001 is worth $1.72 in 2023.\n\nAccording to [IRENA](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Aug/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2022.pdf), the levelized cost of electricity from photovoltaic utility-scale solar is $0.049 per kwh in 2022 (figure 3.10, pg. 108). Moreover, [Lazard](https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf) reports the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar averages out to $0.061 per kwh in 2023 (pg. 16). This is lower than the retail price of electricity in 2023, and there is potential for further cost reductions in photovoltaics. Solar energy has the greatest potential for dramatic price reductions in the next decade, compared to other sources of energy. However, the Metaculus community (as of September 7, 2024) predicted that solar power would constitute [18.6 percent of electricity in the United States](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7932/percentage-of-us-solar-energy-in-2030/), while in 2023, solar constitutes [3.9 percent of all electricity generation](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3). Since the newly installed solar capacity would only be around for a few years, the capital expenditure on the solar panels would not have a significant amount of time to depreciate, which will limit any reduction in the retail price of electricity from solar power.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves as **Yes** if the price of electricity (in 2023 US cents per kilowatt-hour [kWh]) in the United States in 2030 is less than 11 cents per kilowatthour, according to data provided by the [US Energy Information Administration](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0) (EIA). (The 2023 price per kWh is 12.72 cents USD.). For this question, prices will be inflation indexed to 2023 US dollars using the [Consumer Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL). The annual price for \"all sectors\" will be used, or the equivalent if EIA changes its terminology.\n\nIf the price is greater than or equal to 11 cents per kWh in 2023 dollars, this question resolves as **No**. \n\nThe EIA's data for 2030 is expected on March 1, 2031; If reported data contains a significant and obvious error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion. If the EIA no longer reports data for 2030, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at its discretion or **annul** the question.", "fine_print": "Updates or revisions subsequent to the EIA's first posting of data for 2030 will be irrelevant to the question resolution. \n\nIf the data for 2030 is not posted on March 1, 2031, resolution will wait until it is. If it is not posted before July 1, 2032, this question will be **annulled**.\n\n1. If humanity suffers a catastrophe prior to 2030, this question will be Annulled.\n 1. For the purposes of this question, a catastrophe will be one which reduces the global human population below 80% of its peak over the previous 10 years prior to the listed year or which reduces US GDP to below 50% of its peak over the previous 10 years prior to the listed year, inflation adjusted using the [Consumer Price Index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL).\n 2. The human population will include members of a species with enough biological similarity to reproduce with typical 2022 humans with medical assistance which could be available in the year 1900.\n2. If for any year world real GDP exceeds 130% of years prior to 2030 (i.e., if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) resolves as Yes prior to 2030), this question will resolve as Annulled.\n3. For the purposes of this question, in the case of territorial disputes or challenges to the United States' legitimacy, a successor government will be recognized as one which holds over 50% of the territory under the de facto control of the United States on December 1, 2022, and whose political capital city is within that same territory. For this question, the United States' territory is defined as its [50 states and incorporated and unincorporated territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States). If the US no longer exists or has no successor as defined for the listed year, this question will resolve as Annulled.\n\nFor any other edge cases that may make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 27993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757579264.662255, "end_time": 1763462088.94029, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757579264.662255, "end_time": 1763462088.94029, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.25530806301778514 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 1.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289743.327973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289743.327973, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6673617247539924, 0.33263827524600764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the early 2020s, electric vehicles (EVs) have seen [increases in market share](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates), calling into question what factors may influence future trends in electric vehicle adoption. One possible factor is the [effect of electricity prices](https://www.ucits.org/research-project/2020-12/). Electricity prices may not only influence EV adoption, but also be influenced by EV adoption if it creates a significant increase in electricity demand.\n\nThe [US Energy Information Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Information_Administration) (EIA) tracks retail electricity prices in its chart [Average retail price of electricity](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/browser/#/topic/7?agg=0,1&geo=g&endsec=vg&linechart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~~~~~&columnchart=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-RES.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-COM.A~ELEC.PRICE.US-IND.A&map=ELEC.PRICE.US-ALL.A&freq=A&start=2001&ctype=linechart<ype=pin&rtype=s&pin=&rse=0&maptype=0). According to its [methodology](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/update/methodology.php), the EIA creates these estimates from a monthly survey of electric retailers.\n\nAs of September 7, 2024, the community prediction for the [retail price of electricity in the US in (2022 dollars)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14770/annual-average-electricity-price-in-us/) is 10.98 cents per kwh. Since that question deals with 2022 dollars, this question will use depreciated dollars compared to that question, hence the target here is a little more ambitious than the median community prediction. Since the retail price in 2023 is 12.73 cents per kwh, the positive resolution of this question will require a 15.6 percent real decrease in retail electricity prices. However, the *real* retail price of electricity has remained constant for two decades, since the retail price of electricity in 2001 is 7.29 cents per kwh. The quotient of the 2023 price and 2001 price is 1.72, which corresponds to [inflation calculators](https://www.minneapolisfed.org/about-us/monetary-policy/inflation-calculator) showing that 1 dollar in 2001 is worth $1.72 in 2023.\n\nAccording to [IRENA](https://www.irena.org/-/media/Files/IRENA/Agency/Publication/2023/Aug/IRENA_Renewable_power_generation_costs_in_2022.pdf), the levelized cost of electricity from photovoltaic utility-scale solar is $0.049 per kwh in 2022 (figure 3.10, pg. 108). Moreover, [Lazard](https://www.lazard.com/media/xemfey0k/lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf) reports the levelized cost of electricity from utility-scale solar averages out to $0.061 per kwh in 2023 (pg. 16). This is lower than the retail price of electricity in 2023, and there is potential for further cost reductions in photovoltaics. Solar energy has the greatest potential for dramatic price reductions in the next decade, compared to other sources of energy. However, the Metaculus community (as of September 7, 2024) predicted that solar power would constitute [18.6 percent of electricity in the United States](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7932/percentage-of-us-solar-energy-in-2030/), while in 2023, solar constitutes [3.9 percent of all electricity generation](https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=427&t=3). Since the newly installed solar capacity would only be around for a few years, the capital expenditure on the solar panels would not have a significant amount of time to depreciate, which will limit any reduction in the retail price of electricity from solar power." }, { "id": 27983, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso be stuck in space on September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-be-stuck-in-space-on-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.646985Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.316587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27983, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso be stuck in space on September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.646985Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **Yes**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719351.041584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719351.041584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.19916123577889858 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.48857997837153144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8214427870695362, 1.2894390459922271, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7917813399172585, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.40721210296938604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7910469104158988, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05830818042997517 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719351.073716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719351.073716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8314276274344417, 0.1685723725655583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27982, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso disintegrate in the atmosphere by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-disintegrate-in-the-atmosphere-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.533126Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.178582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27982, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso disintegrate in the atmosphere by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.533126Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **Yes**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719157.403467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719157.403467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.13076739266225249 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7549731054070336, 0.9843694802587779, 0.3744189878296461, 0.0, 0.12240282705354902, 1.3797263270842692, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 1.1575814145795227, 0.8251610652676543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37737673185306586, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6944519924277246, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719157.443927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719157.443927, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9604796286205165, 0.0395203713794835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27981, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso splashdown in any body of water by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-splashdown-in-any-body-of-water-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.422347Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.483606Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27981, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso splashdown in any body of water by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.422347Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **Yes**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719253.710482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.051 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3123333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719253.710482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.051 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3123333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.18859523549825014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.3363948160314558, 0.3937868987039119, 0.21228082485103633, 0.034391231724457294, 0.8859183200045558, 0.037197912973893646, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8501391537655245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.9260226628871724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12926020709682073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719253.738609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719253.738609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9003254503249448, 0.09967454967505515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27980, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground somewhere other than at one of the planned sites by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-touch-ground-somewhere-other-than-at-one-of-the-planned-sites-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.309665Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.579296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27980, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground somewhere other than at one of the planned sites by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.309665Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719345.387169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.131 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719345.387169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.131 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.869, 0.131 ], "means": [ 0.19965654017054502 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.5966385346030553, 1.502205042923784, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.8728010511597732, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.9275931041230052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719345.42548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719345.42548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9267459424753502, 0.07325405752464974 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27979, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground at any of the planned sites by September 30?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-touch-ground-at-any-of-the-planned-sites-by-september-30", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.127337Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.756742Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27979, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso touch ground at any of the planned sites by September 30?", "created_at": "2024-09-05T20:52:46.127337Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-07T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "If Starliner Calypso is reported by credible sources to have touched ground at either of\n\n- White Sands,\n- Willcox Playa,\n- Dugway Proving Ground, or \n- Edwards Air Force Base,\n\nthis question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have touched ground, but not at any of the planned sites, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have splashed down, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf it is reported by credible sources to have burned up in the atmosphere, or if it for some other reason disintegrates to the point where one can no longer claim \"the spacecraft\" has touched down at any specific location, the question resolves to **No**.\n\nIf none of the above are true, this question resolves to **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Touched ground\" can be described in various ways, such as \"landed\", \"crashed\", or any such phrase indicating that the spacecraft experiences a normal force exerted by the ground roughly equivalent to the force of gravity. \n\n\"Splashdown\" can similarly be described any number of ways, but a similar judgment as above can be made regarding whether the spacecraft entered water as part of the ground return maneuver.\n\nIf evidence seems to indicate the spacecraft has left space but we do not know where it ended up, this question resolves **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 27979, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719207.776896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719207.776896, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.6982055526554674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5477580557959694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1696648168828054, 0.3190127781780022, 0.10829599059260063, 0.6803385023255489, 0.7320891388291473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.6084093106726526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719207.817457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719207.817457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42770005724547666, 0.5722999427545233 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, according to The Economist:\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/), instead opting to carry them on a SpaceX craft.\n\nThe Starliner is planned to undock from ISS early September, and then make an autonomous return to land in the United States, for Boeing to learn more about what went wrong on it. There are [four planned landing sites](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test):\n\n> The prime landing targets are two sites inside the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico. Other potential landing locations include the Willcox Playa in Arizona and the Dugway Proving Ground in Utah. Edwards Air Force Base in California serves as a contingency landing location.\n\nHowever, it is not entirely clear whether the software on the Starliner is even capable of a fully autonomous landing, so a fifth option is burning it up in the atmosphere or splashing it down in the ocean. This question asks about which of those things will come to pass." }, { "id": 27969, "title": "Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-fargo-win-the-2024-primetime-emmy-award-for-outstanding-limited-or-anthology-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T23:27:46.266975Z", "published_at": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.311196Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27969, "title": "Will Fargo win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T23:27:46.266975Z", "open_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fargo is on FX. Other contenders are: Baby Reindeer (Netflix), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), True Detective: Night Country (HBO)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series Fargo wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [76th Primetime Emmy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Primetime_Emmy_Awards) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards show is scheduled for September 15, 2024.", "post_id": 27969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725632144.035151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5299999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725632144.035151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5299999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4268565299031136 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5540662843316813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 1.6858220880980965, 0.0, 0.3917451535783666, 1.1189722866763407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0068036519510613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6489363679700544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22511059660382657, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725632144.069239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725632144.069239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.68301889969224, 0.3169811003077601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fargo is on FX. Other contenders are: Baby Reindeer (Netflix), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), True Detective: Night Country (HBO)" }, { "id": 27968, "title": "Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-taylor-swift-win-5-or-more-awards-at-the-2024-mtv-video-music-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T23:27:46.128845Z", "published_at": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.720268Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27968, "title": "Will Taylor Swift win 5 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T23:27:46.128845Z", "open_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:23:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T11:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taylor Swift has, at the time of this question, been nominated for the following 10 awards: Video of the Year, Song of the Year, Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration, Best Pop, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing, Best Direction, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography.", "resolution_criteria": "\"This question resolves as **Yes** if Taylor Swift wins at least 5 awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.\"", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024. 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Tesla has come under stress recently as its sales growth in its automotive segment have lagged.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Tesla has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Tesla appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Tesla is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Tesla. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended May 31, 2024, for Greystone Logistics, Inc., at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001088413&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. 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This year, the ANO movement has the greatest electoral [potential](https://fs2-ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/file/cms/ct24/attachments/REP_CT_Krajske_volby_2024_FIN.pdf) in all regions, so cooperation with it may sometimes be inevitable.\n\n The great added value of the question is the prediction of dynamics in Czech politics - a higher degree/ability of cooperation between selected government parties and the ANO movement may be an indication for the parliamentary elections that await the Czech Republic next fall.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the question based on verified reports from trusted media.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730623494.319812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730623494.319812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9806706694822894 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5678900028155001, 0.0, 1.2025255199250524, 0.0, 4.967819575517175 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9890357907590355, "peer_score": 2.8133742014908116, "coverage": 0.9890357907590355, "baseline_score": 95.3034509520555, "spot_peer_score": 0.34662079764865705, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629772, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 2.8133742014908116, "baseline_archived_score": 95.3034509520555, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.34662079764865705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629772 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although at first glance it may seem that relations between the opposition and the government parties are tense and hostile, regional elections often create their own rules in individual regions. Therefore, despite the difficult relations between a number of political groups, a number of coalitions were formed in 2020 containing the victorious ANO movement (specifically in the Ústí nad Labem, Zlín, Plzeň and Moravian-Silesian regions). This year, the ANO movement has the greatest electoral [potential](https://fs2-ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/file/cms/ct24/attachments/REP_CT_Krajske_volby_2024_FIN.pdf) in all regions, so cooperation with it may sometimes be inevitable.\n\n The great added value of the question is the prediction of dynamics in Czech politics - a higher degree/ability of cooperation between selected government parties and the ANO movement may be an indication for the parliamentary elections that await the Czech Republic next fall." }, { "id": 27935, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-180-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.399948Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.339988Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27935, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.399948Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719272.751788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.441 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719272.751788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.441 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5230666208567267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3643458643011109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 1.7691275980456236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4576057282108209, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46540015698840226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719272.785766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719272.785766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5620546487984193, 0.4379453512015807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27934, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-170-and-less-than-or-equal-to-180-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.259392Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.141781Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27934, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.259392Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719184.442982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17149999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719184.442982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17149999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.47187332634421103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1813837834937049, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4481577676642041, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2362407930206953, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.7821211939703921, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.95430762757856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719184.487036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719184.487036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5704205808212378, 0.4295794191787622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." } ] }
