Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2500
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It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26098, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880202.917641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.052000000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880202.917641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.052000000000000005 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.2314832767035113 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4746935987616878, 0.027463871070039274, 2.230134253879559, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0179886480376035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0630589070194355, 0.8402148505771252, 0.197846645955682, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 1.6234567711122319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8445903802608301, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06173507404778539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 65.99245584023782, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 65.99245584023782 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880202.956863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880202.956863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7996892813614033, 0.20031071863859676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. 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It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. 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"category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26084, "title": "Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T01:07:11.072760Z", "open_time": "2024-07-14T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T23:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-22T23:11:29.077115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve as \"Yes\", Israel and Hamas must, before November 5th, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.\n\nIf there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve \"No\". The question will only resolve \"No\" if:\n\n- There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by November 4th 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not start effect at least by December 4th 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by January 4th 11:59PM PDT.", "fine_print": "If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect.\n\nAttacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.\n\nA one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.\n\nCredit to [Infer-Pub](https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1353-will-there-be-an-agreed-upon-pause-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-hamas-that-starts-before-1-december-2024-and-lasts-at-least-30-days) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 26084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730398206.390475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730398206.390475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011854743396634265 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.823920244397335, 2.9713513033832264, 0.39624798760900365, 0.1256254534229768, 0.04090079228890619, 0.22122159673755223, 0.5849577636717652, 0.06993045450605567, 0.045388810230191125, 0.1130965568839125, 0.1727338513728341, 0.009464057867442102, 0.15150312251966935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.05416656778952044, 0.004095049893788444, 0.0, 0.028403737957569904, 0.002443062932311581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029874620908670662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007129919161079304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034816323194887928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016218528311726184 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.28426866019791, "peer_score": 18.03847655978729, "coverage": 0.997893676764693, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997893676764693, "spot_peer_score": 33.517814456489326, "baseline_archived_score": 85.28426866019791, "peer_archived_score": 18.03847655978729, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.517814456489326 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289726.713262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289726.713262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 348, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)" }, { "id": 26082, "title": "Will NHS England deliver an extra two million operations, scans, and appointments each year within the current Westminster parliament?", "short_title": "NHS England hospital appointments increase 2M", "url_title": "NHS England hospital appointments increase 2M", "slug": "nhs-england-hospital-appointments-increase-2m", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-10T16:19:57.574984Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.773389Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26082, "title": "Will NHS England deliver an extra two million operations, scans, and appointments each year within the current Westminster parliament?", "created_at": "2024-07-10T16:19:57.574984Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-22T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"an extra two million NHS operations, scans and appointments every year\" in England in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=95) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\n[Full Fact](https://fullfact.org/election-2024/labour-2-million-nhs-appointments/) analyzed this goal by the metric \"appointments and procedures for inpatient and outpatient secondary care\", which for the April 2023 to March 2024 period was 157 million. This relates to hospitals only and does not include GP doctor appointments.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if NHS England's achieves an extra 2 million\nappointments and procedures for inpatient and outpatient secondary care within the parliamentary term resulting from the general election of July 4, 2024 compared to the number in the period July 2023 to June 2024, which is 160,124,144. If there is any rolling 1 year period wholly within the current parliamentary term in which the number is less than 162,124,144, the question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis number will be calculated by adding the total finished consultant episodes to the total outpatient appointments made.\n\nThe data required for resolution will be found [here](https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/provisional-monthly-hospital-episode-statistics-for-admitted-patient-care-outpatient-and-accident-and-emergency-data).\n\nIt is expected that rolling annual data will be published monthly 3 months after the end of each 12 month period (for example, for July 2023 to June 2024, the data would be expected around the 30th September 2024.", "fine_print": "The latest the next general election can be held is [August 15, 2029](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election), hence the latest possible rolling annual period that could be wholly within this parliamentary term is August 2028 to July 2029, with the data expected to be published around the 31st of October 2029.\n\nPlease note that this question makes certain assumptions such as the data continuing to be published using substantially similar methodology. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 26082, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755308030.423563, "end_time": 1761402631.024, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755308030.423563, "end_time": 1761402631.024, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.8268780720816123 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3938259988704744, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289770.989453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289770.989453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3807092426758252, 0.6192907573241748 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"an extra two million NHS operations, scans and appointments every year\" in England in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=95) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\n[Full Fact](https://fullfact.org/election-2024/labour-2-million-nhs-appointments/) analyzed this goal by the metric \"appointments and procedures for inpatient and outpatient secondary care\", which for the April 2023 to March 2024 period was 157 million. This relates to hospitals only and does not include GP doctor appointments." }, { "id": 26030, "title": "If Joe Biden is re-elected as US President in 2024, will he still be US President as of December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Biden Elected, Holds Office Through 2025", "url_title": "Biden Elected, Holds Office Through 2025", "slug": "biden-elected-holds-office-through-2025", "author_id": 114080, "author_username": "walkrflocka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:29:59.838028Z", "published_at": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.180491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26030, "title": "If Joe Biden is re-elected as US President in 2024, will he still be US President as of December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:29:59.838028Z", "open_time": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-14T18:05:55.054259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, questions have widely been raised about the state of President Biden's health and cognitive faculty. President Biden is 81, and was the oldest President in history at inauguration.\n\nThe Hill: [Biden committed to finishing second term as questions swirl over fitness for office](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4762396-biden-drop-out-democrats-fitness/)\n\nUSA Today: [Joe Biden commits to serving full second term if he defeats Donald Trump, White House says](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/09/joe-biden-white-house-reelected/74342097007/)\n\nNY Post: [George Stephanopoulos says ‘I don’t think’ Biden can serve 4 more years after ABC interview](https://nypost.com/2024/07/09/us-news/george-stephanopoulos-says-i-dont-think-biden-can-serve-4-more-years-after-abc-interview/)", "resolution_criteria": "If Joe Biden does not win the 2024 presidential election, this question will be **Annulled**. If Joe Biden wins the 2024 election and is still President of the United States as of midnight on Dec. 31, 2025, the question will resolve to **Yes**. If Biden won the election, but another individual permanently occupies the position, the question will resolve to **No**.", "fine_print": "Temporary, legal transfers of power (e.g. those effected by the 25th Amendment, Section 3) do not count towards a **No** resolution - only if the legal office itself is transferred. \n\nShould Joe Biden lose office at any time during the year but regain it prior to the resolve date and hold it through the completion of the question, the question will resolve to **Yes**.\n\nA **No** resolution includes, but is not limited to, resignation prior to the resolve date.\n\nIn case of total overthrow or destruction of the US Government subsequent to a Biden win in 2024, the question will resolve to **No**. An overthrow of the US government constitutes any change in executive power through extralegal means. If US Government is overthrown/invaded but still exists as a rump state that _de facto_ holds territory historically recognized as part of the US excl. territories, the answer will resolve to **Yes**.", "post_id": 26030, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731179266.338265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731179266.338265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5996947404656526 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.9211693513801119, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1866748387364847, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287316.333688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287316.333688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21897320396024178, 0.7810267960397582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, questions have widely been raised about the state of President Biden's health and cognitive faculty. President Biden is 81, and was the oldest President in history at inauguration.\n\nThe Hill: [Biden committed to finishing second term as questions swirl over fitness for office](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4762396-biden-drop-out-democrats-fitness/)\n\nUSA Today: [Joe Biden commits to serving full second term if he defeats Donald Trump, White House says](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/09/joe-biden-white-house-reelected/74342097007/)\n\nNY Post: [George Stephanopoulos says ‘I don’t think’ Biden can serve 4 more years after ABC interview](https://nypost.com/2024/07/09/us-news/george-stephanopoulos-says-i-dont-think-biden-can-serve-4-more-years-after-abc-interview/)" }, { "id": 26024, "title": "Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": 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Jets?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.524291Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-29T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, 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They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Bo Nix enters the field as the Denver Broncos are about to start their first offensive drive of their game against the New York Jets.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793753.873761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8205653219925121 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793753.873761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8205653219925121 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.66060696553341 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.8116305268299652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.6706298188767628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7073381963335545, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.9704978208198705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 1.1792089906998804, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.7802002747425575, 0.16989233876228205, 1.0767068425418413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793753.914474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793753.914474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5139155152648965, 0.48608448473510346 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?" }, { "id": 26023, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-diplomatic-expulsions-or-recalls-take-place-between-the-philippines-and-china-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.432818Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.158838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before September 30, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or credible reports:\n\nThe Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC).\n\nThe Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\nThe PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\nThe PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines.\n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as No.", "fine_print": "“Diplomat\" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): \"...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. 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which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)." }, { "id": 26022, "title": "Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-sept-30-2024-will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-an-arrest-warrant-for-yoav-gallant", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.334036Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.186082Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", 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"label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister). ", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 26022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793890.633003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793890.633003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5189953849566955 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.956003869115986, 1.109496035641102, 0.0, 0.3397520381310352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.033872059528572265, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4740774240660729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 1.2061216880216605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1467890332739308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793890.666235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793890.666235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.587971770479935, 0.41202822952006496 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 26021, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-paris-summer-olympics-in-2024-will-the-mens-100m-dash-winning-time-break-the-olympic-record-of-963s", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.090144Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.418775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26021, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.090144Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Usain Bolt's 9.63s Olympic record has stood since the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if the winning time of the men's 100m race is less than 9.63s.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793853.092127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793853.092127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.17953346844436288 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.45529495594735647, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.07073615502467667, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5517147969551309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4880197312995778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.064843858182409, 0.14614885884018253, 1.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.7053925045559715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.8696222370219814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793853.127835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793853.127835, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9655836598584859, 0.0344163401415141 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Usain Bolt's 9.63s Olympic record has stood since the 2012 London Olympics. 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For August 2023, it was 306.187", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data\n(FRED) database at the CPIAUCSL webpage exceeds 316.000 for August 2024. It resolves as **No** if the rate is 316.000 or lower. The CPI-U Fred page is typically updated the day after the BLS release, per its [schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). Therefore, resolution is expected on September 12, 2024. If FRED has not updated by September 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will resolve the question based on the most recent credible data, typically from the BLS.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question's resolution, there will not be any rounding of the figures posted at FRED.", "post_id": 26020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793803.053002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793803.053002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4499243986855481 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.3559153758998531, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.927373545297111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4482361496814429, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22591343527834012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761512300133666, 0.0, 1.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.8080343798877456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46359035143965543, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793803.089442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793803.089442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5519604920941726, 0.44803950790582736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For May 2024, this value was 313.225. For August 2023, it was 306.187" }, { "id": 26019, "title": "Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-1-or-2-starship-launches-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-between-july-1-2024-and-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.915974Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.994055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26019, "title": "Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.915974Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. 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The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 26017, "title": "Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-1-starship-launch-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-between-july-1-2024-and-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.661655Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.048449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26017, "title": "Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.661655Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if exactly 1 SpaceX Starship launch reachs an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 26017, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793864.167847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793864.167847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42345175176104793 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05892591724387544, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.10985474032489119, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.3390456620261779, 0.0, 2.5325522681110346, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.661438831481235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11013622890266436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793864.204462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793864.204462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7229238827494788, 0.27707611725052117 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 26006, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.878926Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.342949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26006, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.878926Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 26006, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621507.923426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621507.923426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5809725675792854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.29345347581623216, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8094732506327764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0852703971363957, 0.0, 0.1476785992696715, 0.22459236340393357, 0.016588932653428593, 1.1949683778471338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621507.956917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621507.956917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5436199528564423, 0.4563800471435577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 26005, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-3-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.797426Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.490201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26005, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.797426Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 26005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621557.800969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621557.800969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.326881194544342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17967653265514222, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.442392296955484, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 1.6924260949377716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621557.827456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621557.827456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8184933108501218, 0.1815066891498782 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 26004, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-3-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.693255Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.615321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26004, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.693255Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 26004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621618.916926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621618.916926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.47208705560990166 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8417112571935682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3626383260300461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 2.4398281744059322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621618.942852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621618.942852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6868090322074913, 0.31319096779250866 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25993, "title": "Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?", "short_title": "Paris '24: five new medal-winning countries", "url_title": "Paris '24: five new medal-winning countries", "slug": "paris-24-five-new-medal-winning-countries", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T13:47:13.862683Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.984079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25993, "title": "Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T13:47:13.862683Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-29T05:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-29T05:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; the United States alone has won about 1 out of every 6 medals ever awarded, and a total of ten countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are about 60 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal; the most recent countries to win their first medal, in the Tokyo 2020 Games, were Burkina Faso, San Marino and Turkmenistan.\n\nWill at least 5 new countries win their first medal at the current Games?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" will not.", "post_id": 25993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723352853.600356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723352853.600356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.17432618935655886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1272233490047259, 0.9637927224004657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 1.2739859364129245, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6625868826230012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.8525283570896285, "coverage": 0.9855839881838436, "baseline_score": -83.19358647196668, "spot_peer_score": 40.59856496592454, "peer_archived_score": 1.8525283570896285, "baseline_archived_score": -83.19358647196668, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.59856496592454 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723352853.636714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723352853.636714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9776406364468101, 0.02235936355318991 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; 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the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Liechtenstein has won gold at Winter Games, but not the Summer ones; it won't count as a \"first\" if it wins any in Paris.\n\nThe Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" or [Independent Olympians at the Olympic Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Olympians_at_the_Olympic_Games) will not.", "post_id": 25992, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723372272.404366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723372272.404366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.15198023505758732 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1292980843277705, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9785523115815908, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1355533277026459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.19351567166304007, "coverage": 0.998644259641243, "baseline_score": 54.10781862999856, "spot_peer_score": 12.2804366621924, "peer_archived_score": -0.19351567166304007, "baseline_archived_score": 54.10781862999856, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.2804366621924 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723372272.434013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723372272.434013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9841255035180868, 0.015874496481913167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?" } ] }
