Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2520
{ "count": 6349, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2500", "results": [ { "id": 27960, "title": "Will the ANO movement be a member of more regional coalitions by December 31st than before?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-ano-movement-be-a-member-of-more-regional-coalitions-by-december-31st-than-before", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T20:36:55.864476Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.725236Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 15, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 27960, "title": "Will the ANO movement be a member of more regional coalitions by December 31st than before?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T20:36:55.864476Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although at first glance it may seem that relations between the opposition and the government parties are tense and hostile, regional elections often create their own rules in individual regions. Therefore, despite the difficult relations between a number of political groups, a number of coalitions were formed in 2020 containing the victorious ANO movement (specifically in the Ústí nad Labem, Zlín, Plzeň and Moravian-Silesian regions). This year, the ANO movement has the greatest electoral [potential](https://fs2-ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/file/cms/ct24/attachments/REP_CT_Krajske_volby_2024_FIN.pdf) in all regions, so cooperation with it may sometimes be inevitable.\n\n The great added value of the question is the prediction of dynamics in Czech politics - a higher degree/ability of cooperation between selected government parties and the ANO movement may be an indication for the parliamentary elections that await the Czech Republic next fall.", "resolution_criteria": "We will evaluate the question based on verified reports from trusted media.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730623494.319812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730623494.319812, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9806706694822894 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5678900028155001, 0.0, 1.2025255199250524, 0.0, 4.967819575517175 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9890357907590355, "peer_score": 2.8133742014908116, "coverage": 0.9890357907590355, "baseline_score": 95.3034509520555, "spot_peer_score": 0.34662079764865705, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629772, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 2.8133742014908116, "baseline_archived_score": 95.3034509520555, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.34662079764865705, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629772 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although at first glance it may seem that relations between the opposition and the government parties are tense and hostile, regional elections often create their own rules in individual regions. Therefore, despite the difficult relations between a number of political groups, a number of coalitions were formed in 2020 containing the victorious ANO movement (specifically in the Ústí nad Labem, Zlín, Plzeň and Moravian-Silesian regions). This year, the ANO movement has the greatest electoral [potential](https://fs2-ct24.ceskatelevize.cz/file/cms/ct24/attachments/REP_CT_Krajske_volby_2024_FIN.pdf) in all regions, so cooperation with it may sometimes be inevitable.\n\n The great added value of the question is the prediction of dynamics in Czech politics - a higher degree/ability of cooperation between selected government parties and the ANO movement may be an indication for the parliamentary elections that await the Czech Republic next fall." }, { "id": 27935, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-180-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.399948Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.339988Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27935, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 18.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.399948Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719272.751788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.441 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719272.751788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.441 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5230666208567267 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3643458643011109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 1.7691275980456236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4576057282108209, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46540015698840226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719272.785766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719272.785766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5620546487984193, 0.4379453512015807 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27934, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-170-and-less-than-or-equal-to-180-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.259392Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.141781Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27934, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 17.0 and less than or equal to 18.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.259392Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719184.442982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17149999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719184.442982, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17149999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.47187332634421103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1813837834937049, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4481577676642041, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2362407930206953, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.7821211939703921, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.95430762757856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719184.487036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719184.487036, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5704205808212378, 0.4295794191787622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27933, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-greater-than-160-and-less-than-or-equal-to-170-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.093450Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.925456Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27933, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be greater than 16.0 and less than or equal to 17.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:41.093450Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719321.349114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719321.349114, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6639999999999999, 0.336 ], "means": [ 0.39041868641114286 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.11123030328809189, 0.06414156534256711, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1737254614527062, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6374633535511081, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48471239664352817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0848805540858923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6667011765031194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 40.92551466848375, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 40.92551466848375 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719321.379339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719321.379339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7671585657730863, 0.23284143422691375 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27932, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-chinas-youth-unemployment-rate-be-less-than-or-equal-to-160-for-august-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:40.754629Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.063273Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27932, "title": "Will China's youth unemployment rate be less than or equal to 16.0 for August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T13:16:40.754629Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, as reported by [Trading Economics](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/youth-unemployment-rate), using data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China.\nThe question will resolve based on the reported youth unemployment rate, rounded to the nearest 0.1 percentage point.", "fine_print": "The youth unemployment rate is defined as the percentage of the labor force aged 16-24 without work but available for and seeking employment, based on the calculation method used by the National Bureau of Statistics of China as of August 2024.\n\nIf the National Bureau of Statistics of China revises its calculation method or age range for the youth unemployment rate before September 2024, the question will be resolved using the most up-to-date definition and methodology.\n\nIn the event that Trading Economics does not report the youth unemployment rate for August 2024 before October 7, 2024, or if the data is not available from the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), the question will resolve as \"Annulled\". The data can be found [directly from the NBS here](https://data.stats.gov.cn/english/easyquery.htm?cn=A01) by selecting \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate\" under \"Indicators\" on the left side and observing the data in the row labeled \"The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24 Excluding Students(%)\".", "post_id": 27932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719367.403586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719367.403586, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3630123503208776 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09578648840751575, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.34716891740149997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4219411936581734, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7692032911042765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0699883855167314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 1.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719367.435492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719367.435492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7845182157080627, 0.21548178429193734 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China's youth unemployment rate, which measures the percentage of people aged 16 to 24 who are not in school and are unemployed, has been a growing concern for the country's policymakers and economists. In July 2024, the rate [soared to 17.1%](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/20/chinas-youth-unemployment-soars-above-17percent-in-july.html), the highest level since the new system of record-keeping began in December 2023.\n\nThe new calculation method, introduced in late 2023, excludes those who are still in school, as more people in China are pursuing higher education amid a more competitive job market. Under the previous calculation method, the youth unemployment rate had reached a record high of 21.3% in June 2023.\n\nThe rising youth unemployment rate has been attributed to various factors, including the ongoing economic challenges, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, and structural changes in the labor market. As the issue continues to draw attention, this question aims to predict the youth unemployment rate for August 2024, providing insight into the short-term trajectory of this critical economic indicator." }, { "id": 27920, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-ethiopia-and-somalia-announce-an-agreement-settling-their-dispute-over-the-somaliland-port-deal", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.973468Z", "published_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.960613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27920, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.973468Z", "open_time": "2024-09-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August 20, 2024 without an agreement. \n\nLandlocked Ethiopia is seeking access to the sea, and it signed an [agreement](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/05/the-world-shames-ethiopia-over-recognizing-somaliland/) with Somaliland in which Somaliland offered Ethiopia a 20-year lease on the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of Somaliland: \n\n<img src=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ethiopia-somaliland.jpg\" />\n\nSomaliland is an unrecognized country, and Ethiopia's recognition would be the first time a UN member state has recognized it, which would be a big step toward it normalizing its status in the international community. For its part, Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory and the government in Hargeisa not entitled to sign the deal. The agreement has [angered](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/why-is-somalia-angry-about-neighbouring-ethiopias-new-port-deal) Mogadishu, which views it as an attack on its sovereignty, leading to sharply increased tensions.\n\nAccording to [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/somalia-ethiopia-turkey-port-somaliland/) (FP) ([archived link](https://archive.ph/SwsUP)):\n\n>Turkey, which has trade and defense ties with both nations and is vying for increased influence in the Horn of Africa, was reportedly asked to intervene by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In a call with the Turkish president, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was ready to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia” but insisted that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.”\n\n>Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately met his counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi from Somalia and Taye Atske Selassie from Ethiopia, on Aug. 13 in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Fidan told a news conference that there was now “convergence on some major principles.”\n\nSee also: \n\n- [Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21138/somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024/)\n\n- [Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21137/ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the governments of Ethiopia and Somalia publicly announce an agreement (acknowledged by both sides) settling their dispute over the [Ethiopia–Somaliland memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), before October 1, 2024. \n\nIf this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To be clear, the agreement itself need not be entirely public, merely the announcement of its existence and the fact that it settles the Somalian objection to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. The terms offered by Addis Ababa are also not relevant to the question, as long as Somalia is no longer in opposition to the situation.", "post_id": 27920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719296.210699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719296.210699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.25849237240520884 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28348981325350703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3852597643997231, 0.5414109223414629, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 1.681301693006372, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.4531953338080791, 0.9390562266019833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 60.40713236688608, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.40713236688608 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725719296.243649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725719296.243649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.916854960980164, 0.08314503901983601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August 20, 2024 without an agreement. \n\nLandlocked Ethiopia is seeking access to the sea, and it signed an [agreement](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/05/the-world-shames-ethiopia-over-recognizing-somaliland/) with Somaliland in which Somaliland offered Ethiopia a 20-year lease on the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of Somaliland: \n\n<img src=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ethiopia-somaliland.jpg\" />\n\nSomaliland is an unrecognized country, and Ethiopia's recognition would be the first time a UN member state has recognized it, which would be a big step toward it normalizing its status in the international community. For its part, Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory and the government in Hargeisa not entitled to sign the deal. The agreement has [angered](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/why-is-somalia-angry-about-neighbouring-ethiopias-new-port-deal) Mogadishu, which views it as an attack on its sovereignty, leading to sharply increased tensions.\n\nAccording to [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/somalia-ethiopia-turkey-port-somaliland/) (FP) ([archived link](https://archive.ph/SwsUP)):\n\n>Turkey, which has trade and defense ties with both nations and is vying for increased influence in the Horn of Africa, was reportedly asked to intervene by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In a call with the Turkish president, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was ready to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia” but insisted that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.”\n\n>Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately met his counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi from Somalia and Taye Atske Selassie from Ethiopia, on Aug. 13 in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Fidan told a news conference that there was now “convergence on some major principles.”\n\nSee also: \n\n- [Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21138/somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024/)\n\n- [Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21137/ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties/)" }, { "id": 27919, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-edmundo-gonzalez-be-deprived-of-liberty-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.853850Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.747656Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27919, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.853850Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Edmundo González is reported by credible sources to be deprived of liberty (detained, arrested, kidnapped, etc.) in any way, by any entity at any time before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "If Edmundo González is reported to die, this question will be **annulled**. Similarly, staying in hiding does not for the sake of this question count as a deprivation of liberty. The intent of the question is to capture whether anyone will be willing and able to enforce the court order.\n\nGonzález does not need to remain detained by October 1, as long as it has happened at some point before then. Thus, if he is let go, escapes, or dies during detainment this question still resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 27919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545744.53146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.781 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545744.53146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.781 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.645428652936714 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 1.247914396722579, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28840001335625076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 1.9764959568421976, 0.11919235601565477, 0.5786709999416986, 0.01831563888873418, 0.5848781132312584, 0.24542508446505756, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.44760345783570343, 0.5928733813562592, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 1.3018232396927305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038905714767909653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545744.571123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545744.571123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4522956190149441, 0.5477043809850559 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"" }, { "id": 27918, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-starliner-calypso-undock-from-iss-before-september-16", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-04T01:11:00.664054Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.898799Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-07T16:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September.", "resolution_criteria": "If credible sources report that Starliner has undocked from the ISS before September 16, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes** Otherwise it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545751.043975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.766 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545751.043975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.766 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8326050582145913 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2575883073886892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.5905170724966149, 0.5848781132312584, 0.014010486522538886, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 2.7911012415303524, 0.0, 0.12938808434523666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.150083388614279, 0.4361039778027191, 0.0, 1.1571382468034819, 0.041937583413620604, 0.9378202529856796, 0.0, 0.09122295403992013, 0.13533528323661267, 0.6283213147936725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545751.09003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545751.09003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18641718075842395, 0.813582819241576 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September." }, { "id": 27914, "title": "Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bear-win-the-2024-primetime-emmy-award-for-outstanding-comedy-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.207444Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.630999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27914, "title": "Will The Bear win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.207444Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T12:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Bear is on FX. Other nominees are: Abbott Elementary (ABC), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Hacks (Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Palm Royale (Apple TV+), Reservation Dogs (FX), and What We Do in the Shadows (FX).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series The Bear wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Comedy Series. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [76th Primetime Emmy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Primetime_Emmy_Awards) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards show is scheduled for September 15, 2024.", "post_id": 27914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545757.841108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545757.841108, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.775 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6266474764049801 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5616274032354371, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18177471655796587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24233740095005632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32313367197518433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.6761034791273415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.19376657685266277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.5050313380892366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6905118496089352, 0.03493560780589553, 0.9195046140969454, 0.1983828997279499, 0.0, 0.7691257071645705, 0.0, 0.7197305172973604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02074843352162435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545757.885621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545757.885621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5432376235050302, 0.4567623764949697 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Bear is on FX. Other nominees are: Abbott Elementary (ABC), Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Hacks (Max), Only Murders in the Building (Hulu), Palm Royale (Apple TV+), Reservation Dogs (FX), and What We Do in the Shadows (FX)." }, { "id": 27913, "title": "Will \"Rockstar\" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-rockstar-by-lisa-win-the-award-for-best-k-pop-at-the-2024-mtv-vmas", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.099335Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.405164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27913, "title": "Will \"Rockstar\" by Lisa win the award for Best K-Pop at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.099335Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T11:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Seven\" by Jungkook featuring Latto and \"Lalalala\" by Stray Kids.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"Rockstar\" by Lisa wins the Best K-Pop award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024.", "post_id": 27913, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545800.318096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.445 ], "centers": [ 0.6199999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545800.318096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.445 ], "centers": [ 0.6199999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3800000000000001, 0.6199999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.5558925050893159 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06146157962559017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7068437030077622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.10861823238144103, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6284870935022109, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5466326631390745, 0.3551836243544548, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.4875518845581138, 1.4861714093100487, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.6221235161564821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0666312089559677, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215023, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215023 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545800.356522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545800.356522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5114069417144382, 0.48859305828556177 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Seven\" by Jungkook featuring Latto and \"Lalalala\" by Stray Kids." }, { "id": 27912, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Amazon?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-amazon", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:25.002488Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.612253Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Amazon has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Amazon appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Amazon is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Amazon. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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" }, { "id": 27911, "title": "Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-catalent-inc-file-its-10-k-annual-report-with-the-sec-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:24.816210Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.433614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27911, "title": "Will Catalent, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T19:35:24.816210Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-14T02:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 29, 2024, Catalent, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596783/000119312524211099/d887351dnt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, for Catalent, Inc., at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001596783&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. If the resolution source link remains inaccessible after that time for any reason (including the SEC discontinuing its \"Classic version\"), this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 27911, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545824.927386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545824.927386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.475, 0.525 ], "means": [ 0.5164712641488947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1414127481955691, 0.0, 0.7594080237552565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.264292164619111, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7880695957948405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4645385736591646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04018318433659051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 7.0389327891398015, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 7.0389327891398015 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725545824.963228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725545824.963228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4076458921175997, 0.5923541078824003 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 29, 2024, Catalent, Inc., received a [notification](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1596783/000119312524211099/d887351dnt10k.htm) of failure to file its annual report. " }, { "id": 27902, "title": "Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?", "short_title": "Kursk Region Ukraine-Russia War, 30 June 2025", "url_title": "Kursk Region Ukraine-Russia War, 30 June 2025", "slug": "kursk-region-ukraine-russia-war-30-june-2025", "author_id": 202409, "author_username": "EdwardStoppard", "coauthors": [ { "id": 197092, "username": "pashka24" }, { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" } ], "created_at": "2024-09-03T15:08:15.337397Z", "published_at": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.680067Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-29T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-29T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T19:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, 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}, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27902, "title": "Will Russia repel Ukrainian forces from the Kursk Region before June 30, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T15:08:15.337397Z", "open_time": "2024-09-11T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-12T21:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-12T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T19:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-30T19:29:06.689321Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-29T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-29T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Russia repel Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Russia-Repel-Ukraines-Attack-on-the-Kursk-Region)*\n\n---\n\nOn 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine#ref354585), massively escalating a conflict sparked in 2014 by the [Maidan Revolution](https://www.barrons.com/news/maidan-the-revolution-that-transformed-ukraine-13fdf1c4) which overthrew then-President Viktor Yanukovych and led to the [War in Donbas](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9476/CBP-9476.pdf) between the Ukrainian government and the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, backed by the Russian Federation.\n\nThe conflict has been mostly concentrated in Ukraine, with [Russian forces occupying some 20% of the country’s landmass](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine), and largely static since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022. Following the [operational failure of the 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/MAPS/klvygwawavg/#four-factors-that-stalled-ukraines-counteroffensive), Russian forces began to make [marginal but steady gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Ukraine_campaign#Russian_spring_and_summer_campaign_(April_2024%E2%80%93present)) in eastern Ukraine in late 2023 and throughout the first half of 2024, leading many military analysts to believe that the conflict was [swinging in Russia’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/world/europe/russia-momentum-ukraine.html), given its superior numbers and resources as opposed to Ukraine’s manpower and equipment shortages. \n\nThis narrative, however, has been, at least momentarily, bucked by [Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/08/ukraines-gamble-kursk-restores-belief-it-can-beat-russia-it-requires-western-response), Russia, in August 2024. The largest Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory of the war so far, the operation caught the Russian Armed Forces and Border Service of Russia off guard, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish a foothold. According to President Zelensky, the incursion has claimed [at least 92 settlements and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast](https://www.newsweek.com/kursk-invasion-incursion-map-updates-russia-1946665). The parameters of the mission, as expressed by several Ukrainian political figures such as [Mykhailo Podolyak](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-operation-kursk-needed-convince-russia-start-fair-talks-kyiv-says-2024-08-16/) and [Dmytro Kuleba](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/decoding-kursk-end-sight-ukraine), is to pressure Russia to enter \"fair\" peace negotiations.\n\nSince the initial incursion, however, a state of emergency has been declared in [three Russian regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion#Related_events) (Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and Lipetsk Oblast) and as many as [30,000 Russian troops](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-kursk-operations-aimed-to-force-russia-to-redeploy-its-forces-from-pokrovsk-sector-syrskyi-says/) have been reportedly diverted to Kursk Oblast, outnumbering Ukrainian forces in the region by at least two to one and causing the Ukrainian attack to slow significantly. At the same time, Russian forces have continued to apply pressure on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine, which have been stretched by the re-deployment of assets to the Kursk incursion, and have pushed [within kilometers of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c984g10e22lo), a critical logistics hub for the Ukrainian effort in the east. \n\nGiven that Ukraine’s objective was [never to occupy territory in Kursk long-term](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n-5Vq9caHg), these circumstances have caused some to argue that the Ukrainians will either be [repulsed by a Russian counter-offensive](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/how-will-ukraines-incursion-into-russia-end.html) or forced to make a [tactical withdrawal](https://youtu.be/kANrDlO_xpg?si=HwQ3V16Yz_sWmUik&t=178) to reinforce the frontline.\n\nScenarios which could lead to such an outcome include: \n\n- Conventional military offensives leading to the retreat or surrender of Ukrainian forces.\n\n- The use of advanced or strategic weaponry, including nuclear weapons, resulting in the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.\n\n- Coordinated attacks by allied nations (e.g., Belarus) that force Ukrainian forces to reallocate their military presence, resulting in a strategic withdrawal from the Kursk Region.\n\n- Ukrainian forces have voluntarily retreated or withdrawn from the Kursk Region due to significant military pressure, resource constraints, or strategic realignment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast region according to [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.1529697/36.3416014) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) (also [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375)) at any point before June 30, 2025. \n\n- The question will resolve as **No** if the above criterion is not met by June 30, 2025.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.\n\nIf either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.\n\nIf the both ISW and DeepStateMap cease to update maps (at least weekly) or cease to exist, this question will be **annulled**. Please also note that this question makes implicit assumptions such as the map methodology remaining largely the same; to understand how Admins will treat edge cases that may render this question unable to be clearly resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 27902, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751151241.548572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751151241.548572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.7014413709915027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010142146568156748, 0.0, 0.03153587526592278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9487983083616589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03533065453980695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11964891568324479, 0.4726397180982315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02451573508238106, 0.0, 0.03313711066127137, 0.0, 0.020598484689031187, 0.012994363513026918, 0.0, 0.003034421059397963, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003460269966480128, 0.0016242268594572917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6878113878105488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006732969874897521, 0.0, 0.0014453669945896995, 0.060912983567330256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005317208022573057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8533713379377227, 1.1984930807286571, 0.003928914836847643, 0.06830738353597367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6520204740059586, 0.0, 0.5214209506007933, 0.0, 0.214511481729654, 0.5559399427967985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017000215457986484, 0.45223113303041795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007836395920405472, 0.4923820740991788, 0.013274868179678816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1535249541534927, 1.4008985496382866, 0.0, 0.07891436402356318, 0.24283972782177998, 2.183464750898796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09746231746313623, 0.0, 2.1914859061903695, 0.1891179962098457, 0.17743652524731277, 0.12795492306753103, 1.2450162931310855 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -93.17865349381559, "peer_score": 21.08020386566095, "coverage": 0.999925137981514, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999925137981514, "spot_peer_score": 48.90554516864266, "spot_baseline_score": -139.59286763311397, "baseline_archived_score": -93.17865349381559, "peer_archived_score": 21.08020386566095, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 48.90554516864266, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -139.59286763311397 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287238.861821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287238.861821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7131989544273086, 0.28680104557269137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 371, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Russia repel Ukraine's attack on the Kursk region?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Russia-Repel-Ukraines-Attack-on-the-Kursk-Region)*\n\n---\n\nOn 24 February 2022, [Russia invaded Ukraine](https://www.britannica.com/event/2022-Russian-invasion-of-Ukraine#ref354585), massively escalating a conflict sparked in 2014 by the [Maidan Revolution](https://www.barrons.com/news/maidan-the-revolution-that-transformed-ukraine-13fdf1c4) which overthrew then-President Viktor Yanukovych and led to the [War in Donbas](https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-9476/CBP-9476.pdf) between the Ukrainian government and the breakaway Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, backed by the Russian Federation.\n\nThe conflict has been mostly concentrated in Ukraine, with [Russian forces occupying some 20% of the country’s landmass](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine), and largely static since the successful Ukrainian counter-offensives in eastern and southern Ukraine in late 2022. Following the [operational failure of the 2023 Ukrainian summer offensive](https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/MAPS/klvygwawavg/#four-factors-that-stalled-ukraines-counteroffensive), Russian forces began to make [marginal but steady gains](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_Ukraine_campaign#Russian_spring_and_summer_campaign_(April_2024%E2%80%93present)) in eastern Ukraine in late 2023 and throughout the first half of 2024, leading many military analysts to believe that the conflict was [swinging in Russia’s favor](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/11/world/europe/russia-momentum-ukraine.html), given its superior numbers and resources as opposed to Ukraine’s manpower and equipment shortages. \n\nThis narrative, however, has been, at least momentarily, bucked by [Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk Oblast](https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/08/ukraines-gamble-kursk-restores-belief-it-can-beat-russia-it-requires-western-response), Russia, in August 2024. The largest Ukrainian offensive into Russian territory of the war so far, the operation caught the Russian Armed Forces and Border Service of Russia off guard, allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to establish a foothold. According to President Zelensky, the incursion has claimed [at least 92 settlements and 1,250 square kilometers of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast](https://www.newsweek.com/kursk-invasion-incursion-map-updates-russia-1946665). The parameters of the mission, as expressed by several Ukrainian political figures such as [Mykhailo Podolyak](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-operation-kursk-needed-convince-russia-start-fair-talks-kyiv-says-2024-08-16/) and [Dmytro Kuleba](https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/decoding-kursk-end-sight-ukraine), is to pressure Russia to enter \"fair\" peace negotiations.\n\nSince the initial incursion, however, a state of emergency has been declared in [three Russian regions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion#Related_events) (Kursk Oblast, Belgorod Oblast, and Lipetsk Oblast) and as many as [30,000 Russian troops](https://kyivindependent.com/ukraines-kursk-operations-aimed-to-force-russia-to-redeploy-its-forces-from-pokrovsk-sector-syrskyi-says/) have been reportedly diverted to Kursk Oblast, outnumbering Ukrainian forces in the region by at least two to one and causing the Ukrainian attack to slow significantly. At the same time, Russian forces have continued to apply pressure on Ukrainian positions in eastern Ukraine, which have been stretched by the re-deployment of assets to the Kursk incursion, and have pushed [within kilometers of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c984g10e22lo), a critical logistics hub for the Ukrainian effort in the east. \n\nGiven that Ukraine’s objective was [never to occupy territory in Kursk long-term](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_n-5Vq9caHg), these circumstances have caused some to argue that the Ukrainians will either be [repulsed by a Russian counter-offensive](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/15/how-will-ukraines-incursion-into-russia-end.html) or forced to make a [tactical withdrawal](https://youtu.be/kANrDlO_xpg?si=HwQ3V16Yz_sWmUik&t=178) to reinforce the frontline.\n\nScenarios which could lead to such an outcome include: \n\n- Conventional military offensives leading to the retreat or surrender of Ukrainian forces.\n\n- The use of advanced or strategic weaponry, including nuclear weapons, resulting in the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops.\n\n- Coordinated attacks by allied nations (e.g., Belarus) that force Ukrainian forces to reallocate their military presence, resulting in a strategic withdrawal from the Kursk Region.\n\n- Ukrainian forces have voluntarily retreated or withdrawn from the Kursk Region due to significant military pressure, resource constraints, or strategic realignment." }, { "id": 27898, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "González Detained Before Oct 1?", "url_title": "González Detained Before Oct 1?", "slug": "gonzalez-detained-before-oct-1", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-03T08:45:51.110568Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.535042Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27898, "title": "Will Edmundo González be deprived of liberty before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-03T08:45:51.110568Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Edmundo González is reported by credible sources to be deprived of liberty (detained, arrested, kidnapped, etc.) in any way, by any entity at any time before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "If Edmundo González is reported to die, this question will be **annulled**. Similarly, staying in hiding does not for the sake of this question count as a deprivation of liberty. The intent of the question is to capture whether anyone will be willing and able to enforce the court order.\n\nGonzález does not need to remain detained by October 1, as long as it has happened at some point before then. Thus, if he is let go, escapes, or dies during detainment this question still resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 27898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687379.487925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687379.487925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00380843485640222 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.275948411465253, 2.7893567780874466, 0.03622346665219617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012956624713270975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016681565683498104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011024176184751514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002996681779674101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.21364872647586, "coverage": 0.9999858289485064, "baseline_score": 90.59325147260299, "spot_peer_score": -0.7861249983424669, "peer_archived_score": 18.21364872647586, "baseline_archived_score": 90.59325147260299, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7861249983424669 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687379.519413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687379.519413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 210, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Economist reports](https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief) that\n\n> A court in Venezuela issued an arrest warrant for Edmundo González. Mr González claims, legitimately, that he defeated President Nicolás Maduro in the presidential election in July. Since stealing the election, Mr Maduro has cracked down on dissent. Mr González, who is in hiding, has been charged with “usurpation”, conspiracy and sabotage.\n\n[According to Reuters](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-requests-arrest-warrant-opposition-leader-gonzalez-2024-09-02/):\n\n>Lawyers consulted by Reuters said that Venezuelan law does not allow those over 70 to serve sentences in jails, instead requiring house arrest. Gonzalez, who turned 75 last week, is married and has two daughters; one lives in Caracas and the other lives in Madrid.\n>\n>The U.S. has drafted a list of about 60 Venezuelan government officials and family members who could be sanctioned in the first punitive measures following the election, two people close to the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>The warrant request came hours after the Biden administration said an aircraft used by Maduro had been confiscated in the Dominican Republic after determining that its purchase violated U.S. sanctions, a move the Venezuelan government slammed as an act of \"piracy.\"" }, { "id": 27897, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-start-a-second-mobilization-wave-before-october-1-2024-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.667948Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.338987Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27897, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before October 1, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.667948Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* For this resolution, \"mobilization\" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a \"partial mobilization.\" However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as \"[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)\" or \"self-mobilization,\" or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.\n\n* If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.\n\n* ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before October 1, 2024, then this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 27897, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459379.322093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459379.322093, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.23909894591353395 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0596694895737375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0694553809045448, 0.0, 0.23586467659496937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.7654150283970271, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 1.313938080504014, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.06427640630688772, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459379.352061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459379.352061, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8970043919655468, 0.10299560803445316 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)" }, { "id": 27896, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-an-all-out-war-between-israel-and-hezbollah-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.429720Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.481753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27896, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.429720Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if, before Oct. 1, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:\n\n- A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 [armored vehicles](https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle) in total anywhere in Lebanon on the other side of the [Blue Line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Line_(withdrawal_line)), with a sustained presence of at least 72 hours.\n- A substantial land incursion by Hezbollah into the Golan Heights or Israel, characterized by the deployment of at least 1,000 of its armed fighters in total on the other side of the Blue Line, with no requirements for a sustained presence.\n- A formal declaration of war by one or both parties.\n\nIf none of the criteria above have been met, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "In the Israeli context, a formal declaration of war is [defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war): \n\n>Per article 40(a) of the Basic Law The Knesset, the state will declare war \"pursuant to a government decision\" with the prime minister to give notice to the Knesset \"as soon as possible.\" Per article 3(a) of the Basic Law The Government, \"the Government is comprised of the Prime Minister and Ministers.\"\n\nIn the Hezbollah context, as Hezbollah is a non-state actor, a formal declaration of war will be considered by Metaculus Admins to have occurred if the [Secretary-General of Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary-General_of_Hezbollah) unambiguously states that Hezbollah is declaring war on Israel according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) sources. Please note that making threats or merely restating the existence of current hostilities with Israel (e.g., statements such as \"We have always been engaged in holy war with Israel\") will not count. In case of any ambiguity about whether Hezbollah's Secretary-General has actually declared war or is merely engaged in rhetorical flourishes, Metaculus may convene a panel of 3 Admins to make a ruling about what has occurred.\n\nResolution will be according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). In the event of an Israeli deployment into Lebanon, if there are no credible reports of the numbers of soldiers involved, resolution will wait up to 14 days for there to be such a report. If there are no such reports, Metaculus may convene a panel of Admins to determine whether events suggest that the threshold of 1,000 ground troops has been exceeded.", "post_id": 27896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459355.422861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15000000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.2025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459355.422861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15000000000000002 ], "centers": [ 0.2025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7975, 0.2025 ], "means": [ 0.22904932958080335 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2080229624776491, 0.0, 0.38510038393919666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9307144213562842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7023430845224095, 0.06427640630688772, 0.537540609676787, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045764208399009985, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8560366996251537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7563838179070927, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459355.477765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459355.477765, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8807875122576245, 0.11921248774237543 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions." }, { "id": 27895, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alexandre-de-moraes-cease-to-be-a-minister-of-the-supreme-federal-court-of-brazil-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.186583Z", "published_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.705087Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27895, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T14:12:25.186583Z", "open_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a minister on the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), whether through impeachment, resignation, retirement, or any other reason. If this event does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that temporarily leaving his role, such as suspension from office during an impeachment trial, taking an extended leave of absence, or being temporarily incapacitated, will not count.\n\nIn case of any dispute about whether de Moraes has ceased to be a Supreme Federal Court minister, the confirmation of a successor would count as the definitive evidence. Generally, however, Admins will seek to resolve the question based on credible source reporting.", "post_id": 27895, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459404.15272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459404.15272, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.12174027503005304 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.7093588386753561, 1.0169329695672753, 0.014369596090439076, 2.2885788729010916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8322595053523607, 0.9828932555088299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0963055375094604, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.492044659666586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 86.39384504239716, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 86.39384504239716 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725459404.178843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725459404.178843, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9842272093193322, 0.015772790680667795 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)" }, { "id": 27887, "title": "Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-baby-reindeer-win-the-2024-primetime-emmy-award-for-outstanding-limited-or-anthology-series", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.960319Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.452158Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27887, "title": "Will Baby Reindeer win the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.960319Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T12:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Baby Reindeer is on Netflix. Other contenders are: Fargo (FX), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), and True Detective: Night Country (HBO)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the TV series Baby Reindeer wins the 2024 Primetime Emmy Award for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [76th Primetime Emmy Awards](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/76th_Primetime_Emmy_Awards) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards show is scheduled for September 15, 2024.", "post_id": 27887, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372944.271738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372944.271738, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4399943168543573 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.08236431053185626, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 2.307983221697363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.1648846227603165, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 1.3408014765599083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 1.0337991717578503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372944.312135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372944.312135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7156855615265812, 0.28431443847341875 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Baby Reindeer is on Netflix. Other contenders are: Fargo (FX), Lessons in Chemistry (Apple TV+), Ripley (Netflix), and True Detective: Night Country (HBO)" }, { "id": 27886, "title": "Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-taylor-swift-win-4-or-more-awards-at-the-2024-mtv-video-music-awards", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.673195Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.430902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27886, "title": "Will Taylor Swift win 4 or more awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.673195Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T11:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T11:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Taylor Swift has, at the time of this question, been nominated for the following 10 awards: Video of the Year, Song of the Year, Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration, Best Pop, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing, Best Direction, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Taylor Swift wins at least 4 awards at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024. For purposes of this question, any award, including special awards such as the Global Icon Award or the Video Vanguard Award, will count.", "post_id": 27886, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725373009.85657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725373009.85657, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.23750000000000004, 0.7625 ], "means": [ 0.7064118604360775 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7953569814754423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43873959438930515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4930298762642218, 0.1976105664975124, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 1.734061682355216, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.764958571109387, 0.0, 1.6980965657768823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.31286391742790765, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021861817362937904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 60.88092426755239, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.88092426755239 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725373009.893779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725373009.893779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30304010043352403, 0.696959899566476 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taylor Swift has, at the time of this question, been nominated for the following 10 awards: Video of the Year, Song of the Year, Artist of the Year, Best Collaboration, Best Pop, Best Visual Effects, Best Editing, Best Direction, Best Art Direction, and Best Cinematography." }, { "id": 27885, "title": "Will Super Micro Computer, Inc., file its 10-K annual report with the SEC before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-super-micro-computer-inc-file-its-10-k-annual-report-with-the-sec-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T12:10:21.367755Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.002840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T12:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if there is a Form 10-K filed for the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024, for Super Micro Computer, Inc., at [this specific SEC Edgar link](https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?CIK=0001375365&owner=exclude). If there is no such 10-K filed before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, in order to facilitate streamlined resolution no other resolution source will be considered, so forecasters are urged to predict accordingly. If SEC's Edgar site is down, resolution will wait for up to 7 days. 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