Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2520
{ "count": 5965, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2540", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2500", "results": [ { "id": 25989, "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "Paris '24 tennis: one player wins >1 medal", "url_title": "Paris '24 tennis: one player wins >1 medal", "slug": "paris-24-tennis-one-player-wins-1-medal", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:30:56.024760Z", "published_at": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.324501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25989, "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:30:56.024760Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T20:59:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T20:59:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.", "fine_print": "The type of medal does not matter, nor does it whether the doubles medal is in the athlete's own gender only or mixed.", "post_id": 25989, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722745844.496477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.152 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722745844.496477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.152 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.15195441255939635 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.834221846429016, 1.887705592064394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.69594029327984, "coverage": 0.9938786410106668, "baseline_score": 18.658335644615534, "spot_peer_score": 56.128276484530126, "peer_archived_score": 20.69594029327984, "baseline_archived_score": 18.658335644615534, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.128276484530126 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722745844.534242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722745844.534242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.986528019793988, 0.01347198020601206 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?" }, { "id": 25988, "title": "Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "Double team sport winner at 2024 Olympics", "url_title": "Double team sport winner at 2024 Olympics", "slug": "double-team-sport-winner-at-2024-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:09:26.815651Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.700687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25988, "title": "Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:09:26.815651Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-29T15:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-29T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):\n\n* Association football\n* Basketball 5×5\n* Basketball 3×3\n* Field hockey\n* Handball\n* Rugby sevens\n* Volleyball\n* Water polo\n\n(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each nation can qualify, unlike the other sports.)\n\nWill the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports? The", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **No** if women's teams representing eight different National Olympic Committees (NOC) win gold in these eight team sports at the 2024 Paris Olympics: \n\n- association football \n- 3×3 basketball\n- 5×5 basketball\n- field hockey\n- handball \n- rugby sevens\n- volleyball\n- water polo.\n\nOtherwise, the same NOC must have won at least two of these events, so the question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nThe question can resolve as soon as it becomes clear one of these conditions will happen (e.g. neither team playing the final of the last event has won any of the others).", "fine_print": "This question's main criteria (resolves as No if women's teams representing eight different NOCs win gold) has the assumption of no sharing of gold. For purposes of this question, [sharing a gold medal](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9086848/) does not count. A country has to be the sole winner of at least two events in order to count.\n\nOne situation in which the question will be **Annulled** is as follows: \n\n- the condition for it resolving **Yes** has not yet happened; \n- it becomes apparent that not all eight events will have a clearly defined winner;\n- the event(s) that will not have a winner could have been won by a team that has won another sport.\n\nThis could happen if the final for some of the events is cancelled, for example, and the Olympics end without it being played.", "post_id": 25988, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722722190.944368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722722190.944368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7755795355383656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.9498461109253233, 0.0, 0.0, 2.401687497085938, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1765058780407642, "coverage": 0.9737839034678493, "baseline_score": 61.47253455856294, "spot_peer_score": -10.445452460960075, "peer_archived_score": 1.1765058780407642, "baseline_archived_score": 61.47253455856294, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.445452460960075 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722758417.598768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722758417.598768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2433299598940476, 0.7566700401059524 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):\n\n* Association football\n* Basketball 5×5\n* Basketball 3×3\n* Field hockey\n* Handball\n* Rugby sevens\n* Volleyball\n* Water polo\n\n(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each nation can qualify, unlike the other sports.)\n\nWill the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports? The" }, { "id": 25984, "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "Men's pole vault OR broken at Paris 2024", "url_title": "Men's pole vault OR broken at Paris 2024", "slug": "mens-pole-vault-or-broken-at-paris-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:23:02.141778Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.845095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25984, "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:23:02.141778Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T03:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T03:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020, his only chance so far to break the Olympic record, the Swede did succeed at his 6.19m WR attempt, though he had already won gold with 6.02m.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games on account of doping, will his record be broken by the dominant world record holder, or maybe by another competitor?\n\nThe men's pole vault [is scheduled](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics/men-s-pole-vault?day=3-august) to begin August 3, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at the 2024 Paris Olympics, any men's pole vault athlete clears the bar at 6.04m or higher, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Jumps made at either the qualifying or final round count for this question.", "post_id": 25984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722585063.664853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722585063.664853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7236345425002367 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.8423388801235393, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3612783614395825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.64176579258661, "coverage": 0.9847771658299718, "baseline_score": 40.279100562361435, "spot_peer_score": 84.73488781924617, "peer_archived_score": 3.64176579258661, "baseline_archived_score": 40.279100562361435, "spot_peer_archived_score": 84.73488781924617 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722585543.059722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722585543.059722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3651422240693286, 0.6348577759306714 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020, his only chance so far to break the Olympic record, the Swede did succeed at his 6.19m WR attempt, though he had already won gold with 6.02m.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games on account of doping, will his record be broken by the dominant world record holder, or maybe by another competitor?\n\nThe men's pole vault [is scheduled](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics/men-s-pole-vault?day=3-august) to begin August 3, 2024." }, { "id": 25983, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "2024: swimmer wins the most golds", "url_title": "2024: swimmer wins the most golds", "slug": "2024-swimmer-wins-the-most-golds", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:06:15.768979Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.249119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25983, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:06:15.768979Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T15:58:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T15:58:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have [athletes competing for multiple medals](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multiple_Olympic_medalists). American swimmer Michael Phelps, for example, would rank 41st all by himself in the medal table, compared with all countries competing in all Summer Olympics.\n\nWill the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the [swimming events](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/sports/swimming). Otherwise it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If more than one athlete is tied for the most gold medals, this question resolves as **Yes** as long as at least one of them is a swimmer. All references to \"being a swimmer\" in this question mean \"competing in a swimming event\"; a gymnast e.g. who can swim does not count.", "post_id": 25983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723311654.814296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723311654.814296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9834908473018689 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.17967653265514222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 7.940355336347267 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.4075832457531012, "coverage": 0.9930934854075181, "baseline_score": 58.7449904164253, "spot_peer_score": 5.963171041340864, "peer_archived_score": 3.4075832457531012, "baseline_archived_score": 58.7449904164253, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.963171041340864 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723311654.844092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723311654.844092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004392278828870166, 0.9956077211711298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have [athletes competing for multiple medals](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multiple_Olympic_medalists). American swimmer Michael Phelps, for example, would rank 41st all by himself in the medal table, compared with all countries competing in all Summer Olympics.\n\nWill the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?" }, { "id": 25982, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "short_title": "Olympic 100m dash record broken in 2024", "url_title": "Olympic 100m dash record broken in 2024", "slug": "olympic-100m-dash-record-broken-in-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:52:27.493880Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.714174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25982, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:52:27.493880Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The world record is 9.58s, but a time higher than that and lower than the Olympic record is still sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. Live transmission reporting a time as a record will be enough; the record need not be ratified by World Athletics, as that ratification can be later rescinded.\n\nWind speed in the direction of the race needs to be less than 2.0m/s, the normal condition for record validity; if the race is run with stronger winds, any records set there are not valid for this question.", "post_id": 25982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722731411.853764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722731411.853764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06404534158777332 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 1.960132617500252, 0.1497213340679702, 0.7076450515259304, 0.0, 2.0778329691858266, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0697448631166007, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.377800564570816, "coverage": 0.9967593432217151, "baseline_score": 91.39902223080132, "spot_peer_score": 2.7443302872442032, "peer_archived_score": 6.377800564570816, "baseline_archived_score": 91.39902223080132, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7443302872442032 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722731411.884796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722731411.884796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9933695068787451, 0.006630493121254822 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?" }, { "id": 25981, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "Kalenjin Olympic marathon winners 2024", "url_title": "Kalenjin Olympic marathon winners 2024", "slug": "kalenjin-olympic-marathon-winners-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:43:02.596228Z", "published_at": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.843826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25981, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:43:02.596228Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-29T19:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-29T19:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport). It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cross Country Championships honours) have been earned by Kalenjin runners, in spite of the ethnicity representing less than 0.1% of the human population.\n\nWill they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The athletes do not have to compete for Kenya nor be entirely Kalenjin; as long as they have part of their ancestral or cultural origin in the ethnic group, this counts.", "post_id": 25981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723106816.08883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723106816.08883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4444952625810771 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.5898182977216933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.799733973705056, "coverage": 0.9518707032002274, "baseline_score": 1.8787327480728642, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.799733973705056, "baseline_archived_score": 1.8787327480728642, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723190589.296541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723190589.296541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8267300346494175, 0.17326996535058245 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport). It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cross Country Championships honours) have been earned by Kalenjin runners, in spite of the ethnicity representing less than 0.1% of the human population.\n\nWill they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?" }, { "id": 25960, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-any-reported-human-to-human-transmission-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-globally-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.662760Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.712102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25960, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.662760Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 25960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707774.323899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707774.323899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.13738203066561952 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.3660118313347263, 0.29095551644889905, 2.4970309530534567, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.9271021014166928, 0.0, 0.3748366482060179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2891722503430878, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707774.350279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707774.350279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9388964123127778, 0.06110358768722227 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally." }, { "id": 25959, "title": "Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-someone-other-than-tadej-pogacar-or-jonas-vingegaard-win-the-tour-de-france-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.580999Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.104875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25959, "title": "Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.580999Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.\n\n In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707854.919258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707854.919258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.26627530419316936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07499429810609376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.3597548430126823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5081247625180807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.04423342207722153, 0.8928392782038248, 1.097078341557532, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0215859302194357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8301688387783688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 62.29303509201767, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.29303509201767 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707854.957638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707854.957638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.892347326914105, 0.10765267308589495 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)" }, { "id": 25958, "title": "Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jonas-vingegaard-win-the-tour-de-france-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.500827Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.609092Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25958, "title": "Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.500827Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.\n\n In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25958, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720708187.283683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720708187.283683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43918188155339294 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 1.2868076805456514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.2813920736306121, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.8638935274408964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7103144808570274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.15774115931315388, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.973648733400507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720708187.313575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720708187.313575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6998798138158959, 0.3001201861841041 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. 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Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)" }, { "id": 25957, "title": "Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-tour-de-france-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.420182Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.541755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25957, "title": "Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.420182Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. 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Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.\n\n In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25957, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707769.382423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.675 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707769.382423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.675 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6017618261741925 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2246733395813426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.6850893156161345, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21018155685325723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3913848916034106, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9127011007473544, 0.0, 1.6569673477836253, 0.8342912647406268, 0.0, 0.12966207226855211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707769.402868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707769.402868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4811411036719473, 0.5188588963280527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)" }, { "id": 25956, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democrats-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.194882Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.996377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25956, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.194882Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.", "post_id": 25956, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707768.390861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707768.390861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16460228215913839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.46671930961364805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.3260481154903181, 0.5667911627135067, 0.6896218051583209, 0.7868332148914403, 0.0, 0.44877993301944297, 0.0, 1.415884125078357, 0.8773351218576806, 0.0, 0.4302386199135554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 1.019377360956032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707768.41375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707768.41375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9200833349872043, 0.07991666501279568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)" }, { "id": 25955, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": 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China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.109031Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.", "fine_print": "* Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 25955, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707815.991766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707815.991766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.27703002834463575 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1340786609779083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4666385559637759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9120263396662294, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.012460834330696993, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09641283329043687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36489512290200554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707816.021087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707816.021087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6692034112239551, 0.33079658877604484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory." }, { "id": 25954, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?", "short_title": "PM of France belong to not NPF or Together", "url_title": "PM of France belong to not NPF or Together", "slug": "pm-of-france-belong-to-not-npf-or-together", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.026941Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.559566Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25954, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.026941Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.\n\nThe question will resolve as Yes if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.", "post_id": 25954, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707776.519645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707776.519645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3948834548667552 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9155805600042743, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.3750715592319926, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12986489431465323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9036232277094834, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6030611589824653, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707776.542939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707776.542939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7220468355549754, 0.2779531644450246 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. 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The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left." }, { "id": 25936, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-crimean-bridge-be-hit-with-an-attack-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.256205Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.950242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25936, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.256205Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after May 2, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.", "fine_print": "* The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.\n* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.\n* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.\n* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.\n* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.", "post_id": 25936, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621590.581045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621590.581045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5530733185151531 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.8737097651107917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 1.068096062136099, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.04289084712097685, 0.10829599059260063, 0.42016237060021105, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204285967221349, 0.0, 1.389282745165388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.07755734487342231, 0.25790909328149764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5962597563721304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -39.592867633113926, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -39.592867633113926 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621590.600654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621590.600654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.497464253191118, 0.502535746808882 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7." }, { "id": 25935, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-publish-information-describing-q-q-star-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.173219Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.220908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25935, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.173219Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, by Sept 30, 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.", "fine_print": "A description of Q* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q* before Sept 30, 2024 will resolve the question as Yes.\nA description does not need to contain any of the following:\nA statement that Q* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\nAn accompanying release of an AI system known as Q* or that has been trained using Q*.\nAny performance results.\nA paper describing it in detail.\nA public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as Yes when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q*, the question will resolve as Yes.\nThe system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will not be sufficient.\nA description specifically of Q* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q* would not qualify.", "post_id": 25935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621640.688598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621640.688598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3869530571878591 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37665269342317054, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.5330717673048877, 0.0, 1.4481671057638488, 0.9634090346631489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43589991024459757, 0.0, 0.835396426672151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621640.707715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621640.707715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7246532830854582, 0.2753467169145418 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 25934, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-offer-india-a-nuclear-submarine-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.795922Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.386418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25934, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.795922Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621537.995024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621537.995024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0966482421759953 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8277762550959286, 0.09207380390900106, 0.28307053233759993, 0.3528848377065745, 0.7940443173909038, 3.7722323543399945, 0.3278398929163613, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.6603234586991256, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621538.017414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621538.017414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9699999931881098, 0.0300000068118902 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" }, { "id": 25933, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)\t\n be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-july-20-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.715213Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25933, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)\t\n be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.715213Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for July 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on July 20, 2023.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 25933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621658.083623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621658.083623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4154782317774764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 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2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "what-will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.629077Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.941543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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"title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.629077Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 25932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542901.224978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542901.224978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5625409234837848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.927705213345072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542901.251358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542901.251358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4078101562289671, 0.5921898437710329 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." } ] }
