Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2540
{ "count": 6349, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2560", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2520", "results": [ { "id": 27877, "title": "Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-frontier-open-source-ai-model-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:53.085805Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.561830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27877, "title": "Will there be a frontier open-source AI model on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:53.085805Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThis question aims to shed light on whether the gap between leading AI labs' models and open-source models is likely to grow, shrink, or stay roughly the same.\n\nThroughout the last couple of years, open-source models have not quite been at the cutting edge of large language models, but they have also not been far behind. (Note: this question was written in September 2023.) For instance, [Cottier (2022)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nc3JFZbqnzWWAPkmz/understanding-the-diffusion-of-large-language-models-summary-1) estimates that there was a gap of 23 months between the release of GPT-3, then the best large language model to date, and the release of an open-source model that was as good as GPT-3.\n\nChatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system, similar to the one used in chess, to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Note that it generally takes about a month for a model to get an Arena rating after its release.", "resolution_criteria": "Each subquestion resolves as **Yes** if, on October 1, 2024, an open-source model (i.e., a model with a license that is anything other than “proprietary”) is either:\n\n* Top 3 on the [chat.lmsys.org](chat.lmsys.org) leaderboard when [ranked by Arena ELO, MMLU, or MT-bench](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard).\n* Within 50 rating points of the #1 ranked model by [Arena ELO](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) rating on the [chat.lmsys.org](chat.lmsys.org) leaderboard.", "fine_print": "Chatbot Arena in its present form is a benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs), which are the frontier type of AI model at present. In a few years time, however, it may be the case that frontier AI models are not LLMs. If this is the case, then the resolution criteria will be adapted in a way that fits the spirit of the original wording as closely as possible. For example, if Chatbot Arena has a new subsection of its site dedicated to frontier AI models (not necessarily LLMs), where the models are ranked by Elo, then the resolution wording would be unchanged other than linking to a different part of the Chatbot Arena site. A further example: If Chatbot Arena remains focused on LLMs but another site ranks the top AI models, then the resolution will be changed to link to this other site and we will do our best to match up the original bar for resolution with the new bar, if the other site does not rank models by Elo.", "post_id": 27877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372951.043761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4779999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372951.043761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4779999999999999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.522, 0.4779999999999999 ], "means": [ 0.4700909463986612 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4473948343763365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 1.1387296791238675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4397095773749171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.2801509562747174, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15858863811458773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.076946588969736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7741138940500014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.6266147193198941, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06730546781687305, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 6.212171190779749, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 6.212171190779749 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372951.083223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372951.083223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.733386012865854, 0.26661398713414597 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nThis question aims to shed light on whether the gap between leading AI labs' models and open-source models is likely to grow, shrink, or stay roughly the same.\n\nThroughout the last couple of years, open-source models have not quite been at the cutting edge of large language models, but they have also not been far behind. (Note: this question was written in September 2023.) For instance, [Cottier (2022)](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/nc3JFZbqnzWWAPkmz/understanding-the-diffusion-of-large-language-models-summary-1) estimates that there was a gap of 23 months between the release of GPT-3, then the best large language model to date, and the release of an open-source model that was as good as GPT-3.\n\nChatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system, similar to the one used in chess, to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems. Note that it generally takes about a month for a model to get an Arena rating after its release." }, { "id": 27876, "title": "Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-control-pokrovsk-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:52.848203Z", "published_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.192772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27876, "title": "Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-09-02T00:33:52.848203Z", "open_time": "2024-09-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Oblast. A recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has not appeared to slow Russian momentum near Pokrovsk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if the coordinates in Pokrovsk of 48°17'12.9\"N 37°10'39.8\"E are assessed as under Russian control according to [this Institute for the Study of War map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) before October 1, 2024. This question will resolve as **no** otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine or Russia cease to exist, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**. \n\nIf the ISW ceases to update maps (at least weekly) or ceases to exist, [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.2869053/37.1777344) will be used instead.", "post_id": 27876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372987.621569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.449 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372987.621569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.449 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5424890455266661 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09313263992392556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10134174905292345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8383197091715122, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 1.8644962729612544, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 1.0, 0.0, 0.03680892014265008, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725372987.660155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725372987.660155, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6572899147937319, 0.3427100852062681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Oblast. A recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has not appeared to slow Russian momentum near Pokrovsk." }, { "id": 27873, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?", "short_title": "Impeachment Judge de Moraes in Brazil", "url_title": "Impeachment Judge de Moraes in Brazil", "slug": "impeachment-judge-de-moraes-in-brazil", "author_id": 205193, "author_username": "hellsBells", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-09-01T19:19:30.999244Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T11:22:18.395394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27873, "title": "Will Alexandre de Moraes cease to be a minister of the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-09-01T19:19:30.999244Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T02:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Alexandre de Moraes ceases to be a minister on the Supreme Federal Court of Brazil before January 1, 2026, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), whether through impeachment, resignation, retirement, or any other reason. If this event does not occur before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that temporarily leaving his role, such as suspension from office during an impeachment trial, taking an extended leave of absence, or being temporarily incapacitated, will not count.\n\nIn case of any dispute about whether de Moraes has ceased to be a Supreme Federal Court minister, the confirmation of a successor would count as the definitive evidence. Generally, however, Admins will seek to resolve the question based on credible source reporting.", "post_id": 27873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762255327.579945, "end_time": 1764668267.233, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762255327.579945, "end_time": 1764668267.233, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007062742605152892 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.148584251388982, 0.20503512300522633, 0.6881920094509739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288752.709483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288752.709483, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7472329081363946, 0.25276709186360535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 138, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After shutting down X in Brazil, [Alexandre de Moraes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexandre_de_Moraes), a minister of the Supreme Federal Court, has [been accused](https://www.americasquarterly.org/article/brazils-most-powerful-judge-is-in-the-spotlight-again/) by certain Brazilian voters and international observers including [Elon Musk](https://www.voanews.com/a/alexandre-de-moraes-brazil-judge-in-feud-with-elon-musk/7766449.html) of having unduly influenced the Brazilian General elections in 2022, among other criticisms. As a result, certain political groups have called for de Moraes's impeachment and prosecution.\n\nJudges on the Supreme Federal Court [are appointed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Supreme_Federal_Court) for life, with a mandatory retirement age of 75. (De Moraes is 55.) For an overview of how a hypothetical impeachment process might play out, please see [The Impeachment of Authorities in Brazil explained](https://www.lickslegal.com/post/the-impeachment-of-authorities-in-brazil-explained).\n\nSee Also\n\n- Politico: [Top Brazilian judge orders suspension of X platform in Brazil amid feud with Musk](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/30/top-brazilian-judge-orders-suspension-of-x-00176920)\n- AFP: [Musk vs. Brazil Supreme Court: five things to know](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20240410-musk-vs-brazil-supreme-court-five-things-to-know)\n- New York Times: [He Is Brazil’s Defender of Democracy. Is He Actually Good for Democracy? Alexandre de Moraes, a Brazilian Supreme Court justice, was crucial to Brazil’s transfer of power. But his aggressive tactics are prompting debate: Can one go too far to fight the far right?](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/22/world/americas/brazil-alexandre-de-moraes.html)" }, { "id": 27868, "title": "Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?", "short_title": "Will Starliner be canceled?", "url_title": "Will Starliner be canceled?", "slug": "will-starliner-be-canceled", "author_id": 141781, "author_username": "Marmoset_Threat", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-31T14:23:08.193609Z", "published_at": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-14T01:36:24.573897Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27868, "title": "Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?", "created_at": "2024-08-31T14:23:08.193609Z", "open_time": "2024-09-08T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if either of these events occur before January 1, 2032:\n\n- The Boeing Starliner Program ceases to be part of NASA's Commercial Crew Program. \n- Boeing withdraws from the NASA Commercial Crew Program before completing its [first operational flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1). \n\nThis question resolves as **No** if either of these occur: \n\n- The Boeing Starliner Program is not canceled before January 1, 2032.\n- The Boeing Starliner Program completes its first operational flight.", "fine_print": "There is a decent chance that additional test or demonstration flights are performed, and these are not counted in this case. The deciding flight needs to be distinctly considered an \"operational\" flight, the \"Post Certification Mission-1\" or \"Boeing Starliner-1.\"", "post_id": 27868, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763084174.223637, "end_time": 1764490788.261651, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.416 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763084174.223637, "end_time": 1764490788.261651, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.416 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5840000000000001, 0.416 ], "means": [ 0.47335295917601217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5847548257737258, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.9998169239195582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.37770384654872324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4186034466288022 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289332.378173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289332.378173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7392445042410214, 0.2607554957589786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Boeing, one of two selected contractors for the [NASA Commercial Crew program](https://www.nasa.gov/humans-in-space/commercial-space/commercial-crew-program/) (the other being SpaceX), has developed its spacecraft, named *Starliner* to deliver astronauts to and from the ISS. \n\nUnfortunately, since inception, this Boeing program has been riddled with issues and delays. The [first orbital demo flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test), taking place in December 2019, was a failure as while the capsule was safely recovered, multiple serious issues during flight resulted in not completing mission objectives, such as reaching and docking with the ISS. \n\nDue to these issues, Boeing agreed to perform a [second orbital flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Orbital_Flight_Test_2) at \"no cost to the taxpayer\" with an estimated US$410 million out-of-pocket expenditure, and while this mission was nominally successful with the spacecraft docking to the ISS and returning safely, multiple serious issues were discovered both pre-launch--causing delays--and during operation including numerous failures of the maneuvering thruster system. \n\nThe latest flight of Starliner, the [crew flight test](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Crew_Flight_Test) launched in 2024 and gained massive media attention as failures in the thruster system resulted in the astronauts getting \"stranded\" aboard the ISS. After investigation, Boeing and NASA have decided to not risk returning the astronauts on the partially defective Starliner capsule, instead returning them on a different spacecraft. The defective Starliner will return to earth, unmanned. \n\nLooking towards the future, there is currently a planned [Starliner-1 mission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boeing_Starliner-1) in the \"fully operational phase\" of the Starliner Commercial Crew program, scheduled for no earlier than August, 2025. This mission, if it takes place, will begin a series of regular operational missions where Starliner transports four astronauts up to the ISS on a schedule. \n\nGenerally though, there are serious doubts about the future of the Boeing Starliner program. [For example, NASA has already double-booked the Starliner-1 Flight with the SpaceX-11 Flight](https://spacepolicyonline.com/news/starliner-passes-in-orbit-tests-but-first-operational-launch-slips/) in anticipation that Boeing will not be ready in time.\n\nThe technical issues, and more critically, the apparent inability of Boeing to fix known technical issues throw serious doubt upon Boeing's engineering skill and commitment to the program, making it likely that, for example, NASA insists on a fourth demo flight or potentially, Boeing decides to cut their losses and cancels the program." }, { "id": 27804, "title": "Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-pavel-durov-leave-france-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-30T02:06:43.413198Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.492234Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27804, "title": "Will Pavel Durov leave France before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-30T02:06:43.413198Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.\n\nHe left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.\n\nReportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before October 1, 2024, that Pavel Durov has left France. If no such report is made before deadline, question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Durov's legal status does not affect resolution of this question (e.g. being extradited counts as Yes).\n* Duration of leave does not affect question resolution either (a reported overnight trip to London, then back to France counts as **Yes**).\n* If Pavel Durov goes missing or dies in France before October 1, 2024, this question should be **Annulled**", "post_id": 27804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113806.067836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.092 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113806.067836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.092 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2647291106857927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5769439002861662, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.6796124580803228, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9354480216961434, 1.1636212376520603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.3260481154903181, 0.1836394386094319, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 1.375557905624906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7689954867847082, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113806.094932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113806.094932, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8836856842343644, 0.11631431576563557 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.\n\nHe left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.\n\nReportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies." }, { "id": 27800, "title": "Will there be an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah in 2024?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah War 2024", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah War 2024", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-war-2024", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [ { "id": 198325, "username": "anna.k.hennig" }, { "id": 202409, "username": "EdwardStoppard" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-29T16:34:27.765425Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T11:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-29T09:11:36.184668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T11:59:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", 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"2024-10-08T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-15T17:46:21.003207Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-08T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n***\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 31, 2024, at least one of the following three scenarios takes place:\n\n* A substantial land incursion by Israeli forces into Lebanon, marked by the deployment of at least 1,000 ground troops and at least 10 [armored vehicles](https://www.britannica.com/technology/armoured-vehicle) in total anywhere in Lebanon on the other side of the [Blue Line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Line_\\(withdrawal_line\\)), with a sustained presence of at least 72 hours.\n* A substantial land incursion by Hezbollah into the Golan Heights or Israel, characterized by the deployment of at least 1,000 of its armed fighters in total on the other side of the Blue Line, with no requirements for a sustained presence.\n* A formal declaration of war by one or both parties.\n\nIf none of the criteria above have been met, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "In the Israeli context, a formal declaration of war is [defined as](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war):\n\n> Per article 40(a) of the Basic Law The Knesset, the state will declare war \"pursuant to a government decision\" with the prime minister to give notice to the Knesset \"as soon as possible.\" Per article 3(a) of the Basic Law The Government, \"the Government is comprised of the Prime Minister and Ministers.\"\n\nIn the Hezbollah context, as Hezbollah is a non-state actor, a formal declaration of war will be considered by Metaculus Admins to have occurred if the [Secretary-General of Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secretary-General_of_Hezbollah) unambiguously states that Hezbollah is declaring war on Israel according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) sources. Please note that making threats or merely restating the existence of current hostilities with Israel (e.g., statements such as \"We have always been engaged in holy war with Israel\") will not count. In case of any ambiguity about whether Hezbollah's Secretary-General has actually declared war or is merely engaged in rhetorical flourishes, Metaculus may convene a panel of 3 Admins to make a ruling about what has occurred.\n\nResolution will be according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). In the event of an Israeli deployment into Lebanon, if there are no credible reports of the numbers of soldiers involved, resolution will wait up to 14 days for there to be such a report. If there are no such reports, Metaculus may convene a panel of Admins to determine whether events suggest that the threshold of 1,000 ground troops has been exceeded.", "post_id": 27800, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728495553.180091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728495553.180091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 66, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9831845964192323 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016749238171012292, 0.0, 0.001218877601747685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034322177175539247, 0.0, 0.0021895956111741962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014249192245099284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01012841545107669, 0.0, 0.00816896048126611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002772598180409281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00946706080046129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005013548757078691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016179044804938477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012495570994977083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007000590723138572, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02594172897048416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023164381480015078, 0.0, 0.8309139094020386, 0.08482337249261131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0447479657310188, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13228954673742846, 12.517703210934433 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -3.6439415463251614, "peer_score": 1.5773611635272375, "coverage": 0.07052658178370104, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994803955424723, "spot_peer_score": -43.83440226812973, "baseline_archived_score": -3.6439415463251614, "peer_archived_score": 1.5773611635272375, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -43.83440226812973 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287961.917996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287961.917996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.046713880268932306, 0.9532861197310677 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy:* [*Will there be an Israel-Hezbollah war?*](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-there-be-an-Israel-Hezbollah-war)\n\n***\n\nThe Israel-Hezbollah conflict is rooted in [long-standing tensions between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant group Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah%E2%80%93Israel_conflict). The conflict has intensified since Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel, after which Hezbollah and Israel also exchanged fired. [Border skirmishes and rocket attacks](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hezbollah#chapter-title-0-7) have continued since. Hezbollah, [which is backed by Iran](https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-israel-hamas-lebanon-gaza-62d6eb8831fbd871f862146add7970d9), is [considered a terrorist organization by the US](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\nThe ongoing conflict has had significant [humanitarian](https://www.acaps.org/fileadmin/Data_Product/Main_media/20240709_ACAPS_Briefing_note_Lebanon__humanitarian_impact_of_escalating_Hezbollah-Israel_hostilities.pdf) and [political](https://theconversation.com/escalating-israel-hezbollah-clashes-threaten-to-spark-regional-war-and-force-us-into-conflict-with-iran-232803) repercussions, with casualties on both sides and a [growing international concern](https://www.dw.com/en/israel-hezbollah-rising-concern-real-war-will-break-out/a-69483076) over the potential for a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah. The situation remains volatile, with ongoing military engagements and diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the tensions." }, { "id": 27797, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?", "short_title": "Calypso Undock From ISS Before Sept 16?", "url_title": "Calypso Undock From ISS Before Sept 16?", "slug": "calypso-undock-from-iss-before-sept-16", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T11:39:33.758706Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.977782Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27797, "title": "Will Starliner Calypso undock from ISS before September 16?", "created_at": "2024-08-29T11:39:33.758706Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-09T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-06T22:06:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September.", "resolution_criteria": "If credible sources report that Starliner has undocked from the ISS before September 16, 2024, this question resolves as **Yes** Otherwise it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27797, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725710658.96127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725710658.96127, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9857119469183153 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.028841894683954285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050216818569385835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00902096530357109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05870557476045682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07538866801196019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017206765638407475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08496097501576635, 0.0, 0.06665641869459375, 0.01414047269109762, 0.024521526059856833, 0.020655434800179992, 0.13443902934195334, 0.7328516007857455, 0.18119093168767203, 10.463637842908716 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.321946073105417, "coverage": 0.481343377833185, "baseline_score": 39.87542853689133, "spot_peer_score": 31.6207778447985, "peer_archived_score": 12.321946073105417, "baseline_archived_score": 39.87542853689133, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.6207778447985 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725660282.01656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725660282.01656, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06622206803464015, 0.9337779319653599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Boeing Starliner Spacecraft 3 (named Calypso) brought astronauts Wilmore and Williams to what was intended to be a brief stay at the ISS, [according to The Economist](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2024/08/22/nasa-insists-that-two-astronauts-are-not-stranded-in-space):\n\n> Mr Wilmore and Ms Williams arrived at the ISS aboard the first crewed flight of Boeing's Starliner. What was meant to be an eight-day stay is approaching the three-month mark after their capsule leaked helium and five of its 28 thrusters malfunctioned.\n\nAfter weeks of deliberation, NASA has decided to [not let the two astronauts ride home on the Starliner that got them there](https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/08/its-official-nasa-calls-on-crew-dragon-to-rescue-the-starliner-astronauts/):\n\n> Instead, the agency has asked SpaceX to use its Crew Dragon spacecraft to fly astronauts Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams back to Earth. \n>\n> [...] no earlier than September 24, a Crew Dragon spacecraft will launch with two astronauts to the space station with two empty seats. Wilmore and Williams will join these two Crew-9 astronauts for their previously scheduled six-month increment on the space station. All four will then return to Earth on the Crew Dragon vehicle. \n\nThis leaves the Starliner capsule hanging onto a space station with no purpose. \n\n> Therefore, Boeing's Starliner spacecraft will undock from the station early next month—the tentative date, according to a source, is September 6—and attempt to make an autonomous return to Earth and land in a desert in the southwestern United States.\n\nBoeing wants the Starliner back to see if they can learn more about what went wrong, but it's not entirely clear whether its software is capable of an autonomous precision deorbit.\n\nSince NASA are aiming for an \"early September\" undocking, this question asks whether it will happen in the first half of September." }, { "id": 27791, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.326328Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.981661Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before September 30, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027351.614251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027351.614251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.3190473652277434 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5123307444416587, 0.5883770929329424, 0.028218870368318452, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9436122267609455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 1.4588889326583256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.27312397204446426, 0.46211900267680595, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 1.022773848762749, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 62.29303509201767, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.29303509201767 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027351.653583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027351.653583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7698783590327795, 0.23012164096722051 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n" }, { "id": 27790, "title": "Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-announce-gpt-5-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.191322Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.729736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27790, "title": "Will OpenAI announce GPT-5 before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.191322Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T17:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/). ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if OpenAI publishes a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) announcing the existence of GPT-5. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Metaculus admins will be consulted should there be any ambiguity. ", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question GPT-5 will be considered to exist if the document published by OpenAI describes some performance results from GPT-5 or states that GPT-5 has been created. A reference to progress in training or developing GPT-5 would not qualify on its own. If OpenAI publishes some performance results from GPT-5 and states that GPT-5 is still undergoing some form of training or testing this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* The model must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces a model called \"GPT-5\" or claimed to be a successor to GPT-4 but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will **not** be sufficient.\n* If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was [previously described as GPT-5](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/openai-building-next-generation-ai-173047260.html).", "post_id": 27790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027344.504452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027344.504452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.125 ], "centers": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7333333333333334, 0.26666666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.2853138683755295 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.010381142261586365, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.3626916547854242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2308552995933732, 0.0, 0.30150252539328987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.208510816199957, 0.4903378730451244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.237746121341038, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.38875737415652056, 0.0, 0.8991613781431697, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06953376465286171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 55.25410230287789, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 55.25410230287789 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027344.537056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027344.537056, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8757922825069161, 0.12420771749308386 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 13, 2024, OpenAI announced its latest flagship model in the [GPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT) family, GPT-4o. Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/). " }, { "id": 27789, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.030106Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.178002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27789, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:52.030106Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-28T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between now and before September 30, 2024, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.\n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/) under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does not resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).\n", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: If Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positively.\n", "post_id": 27789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027366.117633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027366.117633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.26766946596181374 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.8688341374219687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.131983122120673, 0.41588412507835687, 0.6257872328778666, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.8180343785766591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1185990924126554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28169808588910955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 52.60688116675877, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 52.60688116675877 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027366.156176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027366.156176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8305710327856207, 0.16942896721437925 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 27788, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? ", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tesla-increase-its-deliveries-in-q3-2024-compared-with-q2-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:51.803779Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.138133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27788, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? ", "created_at": "2024-08-29T01:49:51.803779Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 443,956 vehicles delivered for the third quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 443,956 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. If Tesla does not report these numbers before October 16, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 27788, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027389.446215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027389.446215, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.625 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.375, 0.625 ], "means": [ 0.5848462496429597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3241864722294797, 0.0, 1.1316375000948755, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.20851081619995687, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.34826582183156496, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.4837049328962416, 0.0, 0.14665725141528196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.13771726112204985, 1.1164311717092978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1982229731213139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 32.19280948873624, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 32.19280948873624 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725027389.475668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725027389.475668, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4106886478517845, 0.5893113521482155 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. 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Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Will this be the year in which his model fails?\n\nFor more information about the Keys including their past performance, please see Wikipedia: [The Keys to the White House](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)\n\nSee also: \n\n- The [13 Keys Tracker](https://www.13keystracker.com/)\n- [My prediction is COMING SOON! | Lichtman Live #70](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UUi73VOKR8) - Lichtman says he will make his final prediction \"within a week give or take a day or two of Labor Day.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the following two events occur: \n\n1. Dr. Allan Lichtman makes a prediction about the 2024 US Presidential Election, specifically the winner as measured by apportioned electoral college votes won. The prediction is scheduled to be announced by Dr. Lichtman on his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@AllanLichtmanYouTube) after September 2, 2024 and before October 1, 2024. \n\n2. Lichtman's prediction is correct.\n\nIf Lichtman's prediction of the electoral college winner of the US Presidential Election turns out to be incorrect, this question resolves as **No**. \n\nIf Lichtman does not make his prediction before October 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "Since 2016, Dr. Lichtman has been predicting the electoral college outcome rather than the popular vote outcome. Therefore this question will resolve based on the electoral college outcome and whether it is consistent with Lichtman’s stated prediction. If for some reason Dr. Lichtman changes his mind and predicts something else such as the popular vote outcome, then this question will be **Annulled**.\n\nLichtman's prediction must explicitly state which candidate he expects to win the electoral college. Vague or ambiguous statements will not be considered a valid prediction.\n\nIf a candidate is replaced after Lichtman's prediction but before the election, the question will be annulled.\n\nIn case of a disputed election, resolution will wait until the outcome is clear, and in case of inordinate delays the resolution will use the final electoral college vote counts as of the issuance of Certificates of Ascertainment, which for the 2024 election is [scheduled](https://web.archive.org/web/20240416054143/https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) for December 11, 2024.\n\nSince Lichtman is predicting the winner of the electoral college, if no candidate wins 270 apportioned electoral votes (such as through a 269-269 tie or a 3rd party candidate winning electoral votes), this means there is no electoral college winner (i.e., the election [leaves the electoral college](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq#no270) and is decided by the House of Representatives) and this question will be **annulled**.\n\nPredictions made by Lichtman after September 31, 2024 will be disregarded for purposes of this question.\n\nIf Lichtman chooses an alternative venue to his Youtube channel to make his prediction, such as doing it on a major media interview, that will count as well.", "post_id": 27783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726684963.991065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726684963.991065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5614416767308278 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1353323549180145, 0.1296267078906556, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7544929742804047, 1.3328907457415127, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 1.1051755743490974, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1986890619035386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08890793817425732 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -21.506645370265996, "peer_score": 29.02169881896072, "coverage": 0.9944567128663189, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9944567128663189, "spot_peer_score": 40.55056036761967, "baseline_archived_score": -21.506645370265996, "peer_archived_score": 29.02169881896072, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.55056036761967 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726820394.459669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726820394.459669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5503337384670408, 0.44966626153295924 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Will this be the year in which his model fails?\n\nFor more information about the Keys including their past performance, please see Wikipedia: [The Keys to the White House](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)\n\nSee also: \n\n- The [13 Keys Tracker](https://www.13keystracker.com/)\n- [My prediction is COMING SOON! | Lichtman Live #70](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_UUi73VOKR8) - Lichtman says he will make his final prediction \"within a week give or take a day or two of Labor Day.\"" }, { "id": 27763, "title": "Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?", "short_title": "drop in AI workers by 2027", "url_title": "drop in AI workers by 2027", "slug": "drop-in-ai-workers-by-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:21:30.934241Z", "published_at": "2025-03-06T20:47:49.426670Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T01:02:36.881697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-03-06T20:47:49.426668Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-24T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-24T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-03-09T19:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3575, "type": "question_series", "name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/situational-awareness-gpt-people-intelligence.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-31T23:00:51Z", "close_date": "2030-01-02T12:00:51Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:40:52.040555Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T12:12:05.894597Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3575, "type": "question_series", "name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/situational-awareness-gpt-people-intelligence.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-31T23:00:51Z", "close_date": "2030-01-02T12:00:51Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:40:52.040555Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T12:12:05.894597Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27763, "title": "Will Aschenbrenner’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ be developed by the end of 2027?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:21:30.934241Z", "open_time": "2025-03-09T19:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-03-13T19:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-03-13T19:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-12-24T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-12-24T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-12-24T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "_This is a mirror of Zvi’s Manifold question: “[Will we develop Leopold’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ by end of 2027?](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem)”_\n\nIn “[Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that there will be “drop-in remote [AI] workers” by the end of 2027, and that this will have huge effects on the world. This question is about Aschenbrenner’s prediction for _when_ drop-in workers will appear. On the question of _what_ effects such AI workers would have, Zvi [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8u6nF5GAb6Ecttev/the-leopold-model-analysis-and-reactions#Part_2__Where_I_Agree_and_Disagree):\n\n> Would a drop-in remote worker capable of AI research lead to at least a soft takeoff and a world transformation if it happened? As constructed it seems hard for this to be false? There are various values of ‘slow’ but broadened to within a few years and for now setting aside possibilities like physical fights over compute or existential risks this seems like a 90% shot.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves in line with how Zvi resolves the [corresponding Manifold market](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem). Copying Zvi’s resolution text from over there:\n\n> Resolves to YES if we have public knowledge by 12/24/27 of a company or other entity having created something that roughly equates to the 'drop-in remote worker' described in the paper Situational Awareness, or is otherwise similarly or more capable. It need not be available to the public, if it is being used only internally.\n> \n> Resolves to NO if this is not the case.\n> \n> If Leopold Aschenbrenner says this did or did not happen I will abide by his observation. If he does not do so, I will use my best judgment.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760490145.868285, "end_time": 1763418968.966, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760490145.868285, "end_time": 1763418968.966, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.675837100962563 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.465831162611322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6793746038794701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "_This is a mirror of Zvi’s Manifold question: “[Will we develop Leopold’s ‘drop-in remote AI workers’ by end of 2027?](https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-we-develop-leopolds-dropin-rem)”_\n\nIn “[Situational Awareness](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner predicts that there will be “drop-in remote [AI] workers” by the end of 2027, and that this will have huge effects on the world. This question is about Aschenbrenner’s prediction for _when_ drop-in workers will appear. On the question of _what_ effects such AI workers would have, Zvi [writes](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/b8u6nF5GAb6Ecttev/the-leopold-model-analysis-and-reactions#Part_2__Where_I_Agree_and_Disagree):\n\n> Would a drop-in remote worker capable of AI research lead to at least a soft takeoff and a world transformation if it happened? As constructed it seems hard for this to be false? There are various values of ‘slow’ but broadened to within a few years and for now setting aside possibilities like physical fights over compute or existential risks this seems like a 90% shot." }, { "id": 27761, "title": "Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?", "short_title": "ai lab aluminum 2030", "url_title": "ai lab aluminum 2030", "slug": "ai-lab-aluminum-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:38:10.246679Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-22T19:05:57.440634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-07T14:48:07.224801Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:35:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3575, "type": "question_series", "name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/situational-awareness-gpt-people-intelligence.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-31T23:00:51Z", "close_date": "2030-01-02T12:00:51Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:40:52.040555Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T12:12:05.894597Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3575, "type": "question_series", "name": "Situational Awareness", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/situational-awareness-gpt-people-intelligence.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-31T23:00:51Z", "close_date": "2030-01-02T12:00:51Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-28T21:40:52.040555Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T12:12:05.894597Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27761, "title": "Will an AI lab buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T20:38:10.246679Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:35:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In “[Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner wonders about whether leading AI labs, in need of electricity to train their ever-larger models, will start buying aluminium smelting companies (not because AI labs have any interest in aluminium, but simply to acquire the power contracts that these alumiumium companies hold).\n\n> Probably the single biggest constraint on the supply-side will be power. Already, at nearer-term scales (1GW/2026 and especially 10GW/2028), power has become the binding constraint: there simply isn’t much spare capacity, and power contracts are usually long-term locked-in. And building, say, a new gigawatt-class nuclear power plant takes a decade. (I’ll wonder when we’ll start seeing things like tech companies buying aluminum smelting companies for their gigawatt-class power contracts.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, at least one company in the AI industry buys an aluminum smelting company, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762786008.004954, "end_time": 1764974018.0, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762786008.004954, "end_time": 1764974018.0, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.15571523768696877 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In “[Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead](https://situational-awareness.ai/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/situationalawareness.pdf)”, Leopold Aschenbrenner wonders about whether leading AI labs, in need of electricity to train their ever-larger models, will start buying aluminium smelting companies (not because AI labs have any interest in aluminium, but simply to acquire the power contracts that these alumiumium companies hold).\n\n> Probably the single biggest constraint on the supply-side will be power. Already, at nearer-term scales (1GW/2026 and especially 10GW/2028), power has become the binding constraint: there simply isn’t much spare capacity, and power contracts are usually long-term locked-in. And building, say, a new gigawatt-class nuclear power plant takes a decade. (I’ll wonder when we’ll start seeing things like tech companies buying aluminum smelting companies for their gigawatt-class power contracts.)" }, { "id": 27749, "title": "Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-alireza-firouzja-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:05.230791Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.182405Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27749, "title": "Will Alireza Firouzja win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:05.230791Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Alireza Firouzja wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113860.388984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33333333333333337 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113860.388984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.2375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7625, 0.2375 ], "means": [ 0.24654102057873065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5368042366737084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 2.2338995600236142, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.704478431100838, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.692838069357762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8229792293006739, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.5608812398816437, 0.11525585627893538, 1.3709261658551304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 60.88092426755239, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.88092426755239 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113860.407987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113860.407987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8689337469157186, 0.1310662530842815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27748, "title": "Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hans-niemann-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.810720Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.212885Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27748, "title": "Will Hans Niemann win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.810720Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Hans Niemann wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27748, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113893.429161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2125 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113893.429161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.075 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2125 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.1538767056617427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.6753507208774424, 0.6091619622184999, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.21228082485103633, 0.22395086513830598, 0.4071284061385835, 0.0, 1.2593907560641728, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.24357627433663354, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.343186604670561, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2184360075254426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379815430455371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 81.55754288625727, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 81.55754288625727 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113893.458317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113893.458317, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9688303235670251, 0.031169676432974806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27747, "title": "Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hikaru-nakamura-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.704776Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.579871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27747, "title": "Will Hikaru Nakamura win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.704776Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Hikaru Nakamura wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113879.04012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113879.04012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.427856793412594 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2184439492892326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.4740774240660729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 1.8706671022169055, 0.22400851848619524, 1.6617437916232904, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.12075682492329762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113879.065926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113879.065926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5871428326952114, 0.4128571673047886 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27746, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-magnus-carlsen-win-the-speed-chess-championship-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.594884Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.558819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27746, "title": "Will Magnus Carlsen win the Speed Chess Championship 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.594884Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-08T22:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Magnus Carlsen wins the Speed Chess Championship 2024 tournament, according to the [official results](https://www.chess.com/events/2024-speed-chess-championship-main-event/results) or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the winner is not known before October 1, 2024 (for example due to the remainder of the tournament being cancelled or postponed for any reason), this question will resolve **No**.", "post_id": 27746, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113844.438213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113844.438213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5554527142929121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5368042366737084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3569457294166105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3857521552669111, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 1.023631498669224, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.04842515677234604, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0839758874887769, 0.5608812398816437, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.7704423568149963, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113844.461651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113844.461651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5211166662612828, 0.47888333373871717 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The chess.com Speed Chess Championships for 2024 [are scheduled](https://www.chess.com/events/info/2024-speed-chess-championship) for September 6-8, 2024 in Paris France.\n\nThe four finalists are: \n\n- Magnus Carlsen. The [#1-rated](https://www.chess.com/ratings) chess player in the world, Carlsen [won in 2023](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2023-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) and also won in 2016 and 2017. In 2023 he also [achieved](https://www.chess.com/news/view/carlsen-hits-highest-blitz-rating) the highest rating in blitz chess ever on chess.com, surpassing the previous record by Hikaru Nakamura. \n\n- Hikaru Nakamura. Nakamura won five years in a row, dominating from 2017 to 2022 and [beating Carlsen](https://www.chess.com/news/view/2022-speed-chess-championship-final-nakamura-carlsen) for the 2022 championship and losing the next year to Carlsen. This year Nakamura and Carlsen are semifinalists with different opponents and may take on each other in a final that would be be highly anticipated, if it were to take place. \n\n- Hans Niemann. Niemann is taking on Carlsen in the semifinals. He [famously beat](https://www.hindustantimes.com/sports/others/hans-niemann-the-guy-who-s-up-against-the-world-101724162034596.html) Magnus Carlsen as black in game 3 of the 2022 Sinquefield Cup, sparking Carlsen to [accuse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlsen%E2%80%93Niemann_controversy) Niemann of cheating. \n\n- Alireza Firouzja. The 21 year-old Firouzja is taking on Nakamura in the semifinals and is notable for having [skyrocketed](https://www.chess.com/players/alireza-firouzja) to a rating of over 2,800 at a record youngest age for having achieved this feat." }, { "id": 27745, "title": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-taylor-swift-publicly-endorse-kamala-harris-for-president-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.491700Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.986102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27745, "title": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.491700Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T12:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Taylor Swift publicly endorses Kamala Harris for president through an official statement, social media post, or public appearance, before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if Taylor Swift does not publicly endorse Kamala Harris before the specified date and time, or if she endorses another candidate.", "fine_print": "- The endorsement must be a clear, unambiguous statement of support for Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. Vague statements or implications of support will not count. Reports which describe Swift as \"endorsing\" Harris or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Swift saying unambiguously that she intends to vote for Harris would also count.\n\n- The endorsement must come directly from Taylor Swift or her official representatives. Statements from anonymous sources or speculation will not be considered. Reports that she has told people privately that she will vote for Harris will not count for the purpose of this question. \n\n- If Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after October 1, 2024, or if she does not endorse any candidate, the question will still resolve as \"No\".\n\n- Announcing that she will vote for Harris or is encouraging other people to vote for Harris will count as an endorsement.\n\n- In the event that Kamala Harris withdraws from the presidential race or is not the Democratic nominee, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 27745, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113910.007478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5700000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113910.007478, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5700000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6157797088191636 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10749907588421219, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30337741279819996, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.527677027563428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5066024232909556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0594907259167377, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3661213002199428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113910.032992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113910.032992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46266009856133716, 0.5373399014386628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country." }, { "id": 27744, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-russian-2024-autumn-draft-demobilization-start-on-time", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.307166Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.045406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27744, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.307166Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a presidential decree for demobilization of conscripts is issued before October 1, 2024, and said decree mentions that demobilization must start not later than October 7, 2024. If no presidential decree about demobilization is issued on time, or demobilization is postponed to later date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "All presidential decrees are required to be published in the Russian state newspaper [Rossiyskaya Gazeta (RG)](https://rg.ru/) by law, so it may be used as credible source, if regular [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) do not report on it. Presidential decrees can also be found in the [Kremlin bank of documents](https://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/page/1).", "post_id": 27744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113826.517965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.638 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113826.517965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.638 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.688656119516385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8506610839575175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0902215738421042, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5950100330818252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1495126049949962, 0.8094266714872985, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4621570379664766, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10034559348601702, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.021585930219435643, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113826.539256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113826.539256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3530070553394761, 0.6469929446605239 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions." } ] }
