Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2540
{ "count": 5965, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2560", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2520", "results": [ { "id": 25931, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "what-will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-3-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.541006Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.947992Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25931, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.541006Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 25931, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542864.447894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542864.447894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3725970716839038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542864.465999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542864.465999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8543757338528293, 0.1456242661471707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25930, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "what-will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-3-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.374532Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.077396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25930, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.374532Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 25930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542800.504602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542800.504602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4739667429356125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8405184883865575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542800.525917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542800.525917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6959844490107735, 0.3040155509892265 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25918, "title": "Will the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?", "short_title": "UK GDP average growth of 2.5% next few years?", "url_title": "UK GDP average growth of 2.5% next few years?", "slug": "uk-gdp-average-growth-of-25-next-few-years", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T19:29:56.025060Z", "published_at": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.670622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-02-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25918, "title": "Will the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T19:29:56.025060Z", "open_time": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-02-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-02-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK Labour Party set an ambitious target of achieving the highest sustained economic growth within the G7 in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Change-Labour-Party-Manifesto-2024-large-print.pdf) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nIn an [interview](https://www.itv.com/watch/tonight/1a2803/1a2803a9408) from the 27th of June, 2024, the Labour leader Keir Starmer [expressed his intent to achieve a growth rate comparable to the Labour government of the 1997-2010 period of about 2.5% each year](https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-growth-plans-analysed/) (this seems to have been true for the period of whole years 1998 to 2008 inclusive, but declined below 2.5% afterwards).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the UK’s average annual GDP growth rate as reported by the [Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna) is 2.5% or higher for the duration of the parliamentary term resulting from the general election of July 4, 2024, based on financial years wholly within the parliamentary term. For the purposes of this question, 2025 will be the first year of relevance, and 2028 may be the last as the latest the next general election can be held is [August 15, 2029](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).\n\nThe average will be calculated as the average GDP change for all whole calendar years starting with 2025 and possibly ending with 2028 in which a Labour government is in power. Any year with a general election will not count unless the election is held on December 31 (as any change of government would happen after that day, in the following year).\n\nIf the current parliamentary term ends before January 1, 2026, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "The ONS seems to release GDP data for a quarter around 45 days after its end.\n\nFor details on various edge cases regarding resolution source availability, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 25918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757634776.418916, "end_time": 1761790146.979302, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757634776.418916, "end_time": 1761790146.979302, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], 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[interview](https://www.itv.com/watch/tonight/1a2803/1a2803a9408) from the 27th of June, 2024, the Labour leader Keir Starmer [expressed his intent to achieve a growth rate comparable to the Labour government of the 1997-2010 period of about 2.5% each year](https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-growth-plans-analysed/) (this seems to have been true for the period of whole years 1998 to 2008 inclusive, but declined below 2.5% afterwards)." }, { "id": 25878, "title": "Will exactly 2 or 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-2-or-3-starship-launches-reach-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.605767Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.792263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. 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Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 25876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534737.136254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534737.136254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3839471009328512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.18689443354298343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.08787151928995177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.7337519574005283, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534737.178939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534737.178939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7377450690829197, 0.26225493091708024 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 25875, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-announce-before-july-31-2024-that-he-will-not-accept-the-democratic-partys-nomination-for-president", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.186803Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25875, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.186803Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 31, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a Yes resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 11, 2024, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.", "post_id": 25875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534559.962281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534559.962281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.19738562230372655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 1.0283015878991864, 0.0, 0.3632031665845412, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 1.5679430946317585, 0.338546870001578, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 1.3153857109076224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3902975979842894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6784271030428328, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -164.38561897747246, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -164.38561897747246 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534560.007798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534560.007798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9219266707062372, 0.0780733292937628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”" }, { "id": 25874, "title": "Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-time-gap-between-the-first-and-second-place-finishers-in-the-2024-tour-de-france-be-more-than-3-minutes", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.099486Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.588173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25874, "title": "Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.099486Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Tour de France is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The 2024 edition of the race started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the time gap in the inidividal general ranking at the end of the 2024 Tour de France as reported on the offiical site.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534610.853042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.41000000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534610.853042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.41000000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.59, 0.41000000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.4391780983593784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.5829011906512116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6848283749248791, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.9669578817342911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6858917353180821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -28.63041851566409, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -28.63041851566409 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534610.889834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534610.889834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.658712255745095, 0.34128774425490505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Tour de France is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The 2024 edition of the race started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race." }, { "id": 25873, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-real-time-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-increase-year-over-year-for-aug-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.007851Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.434767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "Q3 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-29T16:10:02.897138Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25873, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.007851Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME): > Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. 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Two countries per group will directly advance to the knockout stage. Out of the six countries getting the third place in their respective group, four will also advance to the knockout stage. The exact rules which countries will advance and what tiebreakers decide can be found here.\n\nThe 16 countries advancing past the group stage will play against each other in the knockout stage.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the total number of goals scored in the two semi-final matches scheduled for July 9, 2024 and July 10, 2024. 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"open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25846, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727755074.179026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 325, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727755074.179026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 325, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.27573623315894774 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.415451455409568, 4.104494746080827, 1.1387573695119195, 0.5755266941683091, 0.7399355693779153, 1.9989237187065427, 0.41040591146628147, 0.03222432038653818, 0.02541971789782314, 0.9375091610482574, 1.4625942330392152, 0.10911011611327037, 0.7372171801480649, 0.014210474747061592, 1.7809120420196485, 1.1080081963447592, 0.8700430747766431, 0.2982149191567984, 0.002412940132251085, 0.0, 1.9937114377539589, 0.6982250600321023, 0.6142465050645456, 1.0308615075759368e-06, 0.0, 0.9136448255545901, 1.7440969237997217e-05, 1.1257153141072224e-05, 3.7759736174684176e-05, 0.0, 0.20899818919507612, 0.0037857061860485427, 0.0, 0.5273834222018879, 0.0, 0.5583246143251731, 0.007931997218070102, 1.6131195943901082e-06, 2.4691475628435923e-05, 0.005613820368278061, 0.988818071405837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012442529868221443, 0.0032162131564362627, 0.0, 0.5374813636874904, 0.0028448887475408502, 2.0152916648249244, 4.790834113943344e-05, 0.7146585774674399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009222655080406554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01118421333545537, 3.0069978635507107e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5994454621018994, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8929879045992755e-05, 0.0, 0.4929989170321693, 0.0, 0.011958823933853804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005399181546002345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8414048980077458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01111315764671627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5857274542194764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.228821965717828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1923458412201413 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727755074.254834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727755074.254834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 329, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9421417776580758, 0.05785822234192422 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 35, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2634, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved." }, { "id": 25801, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?", "short_title": "Normal world in 2030?", "url_title": "Normal world in 2030?", "slug": "normal-world-in-2030", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-02T19:04:26.090910Z", "published_at": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T13:44:08.500189Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 126, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25801, "title": "Will the world remain \"normal\" through 2030, according to specified criteria?", "created_at": "2024-07-02T19:04:26.090910Z", "open_time": "2024-07-05T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2, 2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2030:\n\n- The **development of artificial general intelligence**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- A **10% reduction in the human population**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[By 2100, will the human population decrease by at least 10% during any period of 5 years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- Global **GDP increases by 30% or more in one year**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[In which year will the world's real GDP first exceed 130% of its highest level from any previous year?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/)* resolves to a date before January 1, 2030.\n- The **discovery of alien technosignatures**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will alien technosignatures be detected before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/)* resolves as Yes before January 1, 2030.\n- A **worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs** becomes accepted, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena have an ontologically-shocking explanation?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/)* resolves as **Yes**.\n - **World War III**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n- A **nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war**, which will be considered to occur if the question *[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)* resolves as **Yes** before January 1, 2030.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** (meaning this is no longer a \"normal\" world) if one or more of the above Metaculus questions has positively resolved before January 1, 2030.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25801, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757857437.487312, "end_time": 1758816591.696665, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757857437.487312, "end_time": 1758816591.696665, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 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2024, the questions had the following probabilities assessed by the Metaculus Community: \n\n- [Development of artificial general intelligence](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/) - Cumulative probability of 40% before 2030.\n\n- A [10% reduction in the human population](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/) - 36% chance of happening before 2100.\n\n- [Global GDP increases by 30% or more in one year](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5159/date-of-gwp-growth-over-130/) - 13% cumulative probability before 2030.\n\n- The [discovery of alien technosignatures](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1629/alien-technosignature-detection-by-2050/) - 3% chance of happening before 2050.\n\n- A [worldview-shattering explanation for UAPs (UFOs)](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18075/shocking-uap-explanation-by-july-2028/) - 1.4% before July 22, 2028.\n\n- [World War III](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/) - 25% chance before 2050.\n\n- A [nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/) - 23% before 2050." }, { "id": 25791, "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Verisign's .com monopoly start to fade?", "url_title": "Will Verisign's .com monopoly start to fade?", "slug": "will-verisigns-com-monopoly-start-to-fade", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-01T20:43:58.027722Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.268871Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25791, "title": "Will the US government end its agreement directly allowing Verisign to manage the authoritative domain name registry for the .com TLD, before August 3, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-01T20:43:58.027722Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-05T14:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 3, 2024, the US Department of Commerce (DOC) officially terminates or sunsets its Cooperative Agreement with Verisign recognizing Verisign's management of the *.com* generic top-level domain (TLD). If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Sunsets\" is defined as the DOC choosing to let the agreement expire without renewal.\n\n\"Terminates\" is defined as the DOC providing written notice of non-renewal \nof the agreement with Verisign.", "post_id": 25791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722516888.572756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722516888.572756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 64, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.010120488865577927 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.754713606465641, 3.111355456287346, 0.22631426293135623, 0.7423502785856408, 0.029367576745184032, 0.5321974822422896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0450032524825526, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009821197320900747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009118819655545162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03279680079640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.652676996984499, "coverage": 0.9998615166154505, "baseline_score": 92.82034113983616, "spot_peer_score": 8.38820890989312, "peer_archived_score": 4.652676996984499, "baseline_archived_score": 92.82034113983616, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.38820890989312 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722516888.605559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722516888.605559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 192, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Verisign](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verisign) operates the authoritative registry for the .com generic top-level domain (TLD) under a registry agreement with the Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) and a [Cooperative Agreement](https://www.ntia.gov/page/verisign-cooperative-agreement) with the US Department of Commerce (DOC). This means it is the wholesale provider of the .com TLD to every domain name registrar. The American Economic Liberties Projected [has called](https://www.economicliberties.us/press-release/ntia-and-doj-must-break-verisigns-monopoly-power-over-domain-names-advocates-urge/) this arrangement a \"government-designated monopoly over domain registration.\" According to [The American Prospect](https://prospect.org/power/2024-06-27-government-created-most-profitable-company-verisign/):\n\n>You have probably never heard of the most profitable company in America, and possibly the world. It’s a government-granted monopoly that feasts on high margins for a low-dollar administrative product. Today, three advocacy groups pressured the Biden administration to take down the rules in place that enable this gravy train.\n\n>The company is called VeriSign [*sic*], and it has exclusive control of the registration system for the .com domain name. Every year, hundreds of millions of website owners pay VeriSign [*sic*] a small annual fee to keep their .com in working order. Every year, the cost of managing the database to make sure that .com websites work either stays flat or goes down, while the fee for registering a .com website goes up.\n\nThe Cooperative Agreement between Verisign and the US DOC will automatically renew for a six-year term unless the DOC provides notice of non-renewal on August 2, 2024.\n\nAccording to [Bloomberg](https://archive.ph/IXZ3V#selection-1705.0-1726.0), during the 2018 renewal the Trump Administration lifted the cap on wholesale prices for *.com*. The antitrust advocacy groups have written to the Justice Department to withdraw guidance that allowed the elimination of price caps in the 2018 renewal, with the letters citing President Biden’s 2021 [executive order](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2021/07/09/executive-order-on-promoting-competition-in-the-american-economy/) on competition." }, { "id": 25769, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-offer-india-a-nuclear-submarine-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-01T13:46:12.479741Z", "published_at": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.139581Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25769, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-01T13:46:12.479741Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:53:28.181770Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720382568.198393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720382568.198393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.15266773923854643 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1945793230042818, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2835570226298483, 0.0, 0.153664542769241, 0.0, 0.0, 1.796346407406149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.70945463158483, "peer_score": 46.256019954133365, "coverage": 0.8555795777943876, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.8555795777943876, "spot_peer_score": 35.07990775700405, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 70.70945463158483, "peer_archived_score": 46.256019954133365, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.07990775700405, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720382568.258813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720382568.258813, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9680740687618282, 0.03192593123817174 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 183, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" }, { "id": 25767, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?", "url_title": "Will Dems have brokered convention in 2024?", "slug": "will-dems-have-brokered-convention-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-30T21:09:39.806575Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25767, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-30T21:09:39.806575Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.", "post_id": 25767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722953249.935069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722953249.935069, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 157, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01514294452271187 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.25119632413478, 2.7238674968897567, 0.46618052893767337, 0.0, 0.1482716149044876, 0.0779732025193072, 0.0, 0.8989028589756345, 0.0, 0.0011301539240017998, 0.03485975599792888, 0.00017390859029303986, 0.0, 0.0016575935991125798, 0.0, 0.008814381616854338, 0.003555013765919917, 0.0007184162194738851, 0.002018483553059274, 0.0, 0.6179650935637048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31212619044827367, 0.0002827167223872031, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002386417446286252, 0.002748460051482373, 0.0009743893673176235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001525059876562794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.544083362327318e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.097308676200543e-05, 0.0004851829117117352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3839015763848735e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001330996036135543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025477986635491097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003966131525619066 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.063957442852649, "coverage": 0.9956922588307558, "baseline_score": 87.34226396130612, "spot_peer_score": 17.075888435551725, "peer_archived_score": 15.063957442852649, "baseline_archived_score": 87.34226396130612, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.075888435551725 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722934460.813026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722934460.813026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 649, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)" }, { "id": 25755, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "short_title": "Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?", "url_title": "Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?", "slug": "biden-announces-drop-out-before-july-15-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "published_at": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.640216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 102, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 214, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25755, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "created_at": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-02T06:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-02T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a **Yes** resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.", "post_id": 25755, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720910225.221575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720910225.221575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04805731782072956 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6789034476512033, 10.613625550412882, 5.109396816173699, 0.06698648077379216, 0.07617243347160466, 2.783301700667595, 0.8037610020603806, 0.3855292328690483, 0.4704415709537751, 0.3714409563781609, 1.8607411198542572, 0.0, 0.49671526053379245, 1.3828323339887284e-06, 0.007069364202659466, 0.8212633086873529, 0.0017167224788468593, 0.0013369439924845717, 0.008232796878272745, 0.20045633292084955, 0.14130254130018108, 0.002187980118989623, 0.0, 0.001188284319454295, 0.0, 0.0023222308709706947, 0.0, 0.00460347803303076, 0.003368249166680152, 0.0, 0.0050035238382107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024190565983143363, 0.0, 0.11045824812992058, 9.18618882553368e-05, 0.0001887104056766348, 3.141355342085993e-05, 0.0, 0.0007750602822640982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026220635550182575, 1.402383808700119e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005989640763666538, 0.005222476688455733, 0.0002839190414233491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12621010186925966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010105212106725643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003319135389606362, 0.0, 0.006707400796675769, 0.0, 8.335872854983983e-05, 0.15754327248436237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15845793653608387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009568160587476772 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.06569263892481, "coverage": 0.9975353086824773, "baseline_score": 77.1552181971318, "spot_peer_score": 5.0357813713576585, "peer_archived_score": 15.06569263892481, "baseline_archived_score": 77.1552181971318, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.0357813713576585 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720910225.276106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720910225.276106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986453039347641, 0.0013546960652358448 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 867, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”" }, { "id": 25753, "title": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?", "short_title": "Masoud Pezeshkian elected President of Iran?", "url_title": "Masoud Pezeshkian elected President of Iran?", "slug": "masoud-pezeshkian-elected-president-of-iran", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-29T15:00:04.446161Z", "published_at": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.686668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25753, "title": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-06-29T15:00:04.446161Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-30T06:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-30T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.\n\nThe very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Masoud Pezeshkian is announced as the winner of the 2024 Iranian presidential election, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) or the [IRNA](https://en.irna.ir/) agency. It will resolve **No** if Jalili wins.\n\nIf some outcome happens that is not one of the candidates being announced as the winner, the question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "The question will also be annulled if a winner is not announced before July 21st.\n\nThe winner need not be inaugurated, only a winner being declared in the election is required.", "post_id": 25753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720113289.692243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720113289.692243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4464753223640251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2909169046675799, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3491535785367932, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.7167104033792189, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4679105041067944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.8287854636040446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.2242282476777495, "coverage": 0.9760981268686719, "baseline_score": -39.44831100829938, "spot_peer_score": 9.7372038396256, "peer_archived_score": 4.2242282476777495, "baseline_archived_score": -39.44831100829938, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.7372038396256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720113289.73391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720113289.73391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6226719671391003, 0.37732803286089966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.\n\nThe very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively." } ] }
