Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2560
{ "count": 6350, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2540", "results": [ { "id": 27744, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-russian-2024-autumn-draft-demobilization-start-on-time", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.307166Z", "published_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.045406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27744, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:42:04.307166Z", "open_time": "2024-08-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a presidential decree for demobilization of conscripts is issued before October 1, 2024, and said decree mentions that demobilization must start not later than October 7, 2024. If no presidential decree about demobilization is issued on time, or demobilization is postponed to later date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "All presidential decrees are required to be published in the Russian state newspaper [Rossiyskaya Gazeta (RG)](https://rg.ru/) by law, so it may be used as credible source, if regular [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) do not report on it. Presidential decrees can also be found in the [Kremlin bank of documents](https://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/page/1).", "post_id": 27744, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113826.517965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.638 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113826.517965, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.638 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.688656119516385 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8506610839575175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0902215738421042, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5950100330818252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1495126049949962, 0.8094266714872985, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4621570379664766, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10034559348601702, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.021585930219435643, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725113826.539256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725113826.539256, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3530070553394761, 0.6469929446605239 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions." }, { "id": 27733, "title": "Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-us-presidential-debate-between-donald-trump-and-kamala-harris-held-on-september-10-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:22:06.128991Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.452945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", 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"close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27733, "title": "Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:22:06.128991Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T01:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. \"World News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with final rules still to be determined, and the two campaigns reportedly [clashing](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4847464-trump-harris-debate-mic-dispute/) over whether microphones would be muted.\n\nOn August 26, 2024, Trump [suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/trump-harris-debate-abc/) he may skip the debate, posting on social media: \n\n>I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s (K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?\n\nFor its part the Harris campaign has [remained in favor](https://deadline.com/2024/08/trump-harris-presidential-debate-abc-news-1236050101/) of the debate despite the current disputes over the rules.\n\nOn August 27, 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had [reached an agreement](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gives-debate-update-kamala-harris-1945130) with Harris for a debate on September 10, though the post disparaged the debate host, ABC News, saying\n\n>It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business. . .\n\nHistorically with debates involving Trump, the presidential debate scheduled for October 15, 2020 [was cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html), as was a presidential primary [debate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#March_21,_2016_%E2%80%93_Salt_Lake_City,_Utah) originally scheduled for March 21, 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a formal, live presidential debate which includes both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris takes place on September 10, 2024.\n\nIf there is no such debate on that exact date, whether because it has been rescheduled, canceled, Harris or Trump have declined to participate, or for any other reason, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "A debate is [currently scheduled](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-is-second-presidential-debate-2024/) for 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10, 2024, hosted by ABC News. Any other time or host would count, however, as long as the debate is held on that date.\n\nA debate that begins on September 9, 2024 or ends on September 11, 2024 ([Eastern Time](https://time.is/ET)) will count, as long as any portion of it takes place on September 10, 2024.\n\nPlease note that this must be a presidential debate for it to count. Therefore if either Harris or Trump is no longer the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee, respectively, on September 10, 2024 then this question resolves as No.\n\nA qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for president in the 2024 US election.\n\nBoth Harris and Trump as the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, respectively, must participate in the debate, responding to each other and/or moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both Harris and Trump are present. If either Trump or Harris is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason for or presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as No.\n\nThe debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously. Pre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\nThe debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both Trump and Harris participating live.\n\nAlternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 27733, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724940949.223408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6409999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7250000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724940949.223408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6409999999999999 ], "centers": [ 0.7250000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.2749999999999999, 0.7250000000000001 ], "means": [ 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and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. \"World News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with final rules still to be determined, and the two campaigns reportedly [clashing](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4847464-trump-harris-debate-mic-dispute/) over whether microphones would be muted.\n\nOn August 26, 2024, Trump [suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/trump-harris-debate-abc/) he may skip the debate, posting on social media: \n\n>I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s (K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?\n\nFor its part the Harris campaign has [remained in favor](https://deadline.com/2024/08/trump-harris-presidential-debate-abc-news-1236050101/) of the debate despite the current disputes over the rules.\n\nOn August 27, 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had [reached an agreement](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gives-debate-update-kamala-harris-1945130) with Harris for a debate on September 10, though the post disparaged the debate host, ABC News, saying\n\n>It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business. . .\n\nHistorically with debates involving Trump, the presidential debate scheduled for October 15, 2020 [was cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html), as was a presidential primary [debate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#March_21,_2016_%E2%80%93_Salt_Lake_City,_Utah) originally scheduled for March 21, 2016." }, { "id": 27732, "title": "Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-another-chinese-military-aircraft-violate-japanese-territorial-airspace-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:22:05.938253Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.556275Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], 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"2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27732, "title": "Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-28T14:22:05.938253Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, between August 28, 2024, and September 30, 2024 (inclusive), the Japanese Defense Ministry officially states that a Chinese military aircraft has violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no such violation is stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "- The violation must be officially stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry through a public statement, press release, or other official communication channels.\n\n- The aircraft involved must be identified as belonging to the Chinese military (People's Liberation Army Air Force, Navy, or other branches).\n\n- The violation must occur within Japanese territorial airspace, as defined by international law (for example, 12 nautical miles out from any of its coastlines) and recognized by the Japanese government.\n\n- Incursions into Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that do not enter Japanese territorial airspace will not count as violations for the purpose of this question.\n\n- If multiple violations occur during the specified time period, the question will still resolve as \"Yes\".", "post_id": 27732, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724940942.094403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724940942.094403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36995007195400387 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7679490586635602, 0.0, 1.0474822324205468, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 1.2368847303185118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27082389038189786, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9095589489729516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8025954556662902, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44172102988017853, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724940942.134449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724940942.134449, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6887735036666496, 0.3112264963333505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region." }, { "id": 27723, "title": "Will \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-feelslikeimfallinginlove-by-coldplay-win-the-award-for-best-rock-at-the-2024-mtv-vmas", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.444657Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.010541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27723, "title": "Will \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.444657Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T00:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Dilemma\" by Green Day, \"Mustang\" by Kings of Leon, and \"Atomic City\" by U2.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay wins the Best Rock award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024.", "post_id": 27723, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941029.252388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941029.252388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3562835968209817 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8016902507176118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 1.0, 0.577585526399994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5190350621191324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3256481231000958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7010144968986024, 0.0, 1.7722534973671087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.6366480125671327, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4379663033721056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21048406939484643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941029.291169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941029.291169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8298225448060541, 0.1701774551939459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Dilemma\" by Green Day, \"Mustang\" by Kings of Leon, and \"Atomic City\" by U2." }, { "id": 27722, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Nvidia?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-nvidia", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.345653Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.939095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Although Nvidia has had layoff events in the past, over the years its CEO, Jensen Huang, has publicly stated a strong aversion to layoffs many times. Nvidia is notable for having a reputation of engaging in fewer layoffs compared to its large tech peers. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Nvidia has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Nvidia appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Nvidia is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Nvidia. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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Although Nvidia has had layoff events in the past, over the years its CEO, Jensen Huang, has publicly stated a strong aversion to layoffs many times. Nvidia is notable for having a reputation of engaging in fewer layoffs compared to its large tech peers. 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From its recent SEC filings: \"At the time of the issuance of the Company’s 2023 third quarter Form 10-Q, conditions existed that raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Plug Power, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before October 1, 2024. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. 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From its recent SEC filings: \"At the time of the issuance of the Company’s 2023 third quarter Form 10-Q, conditions existed that raised substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern.\"" }, { "id": 27720, "title": "Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jensen-huang-be-in-the-top-10-of-the-forbes-real-time-billionaires-list-on-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.061018Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.557002Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27720, "title": "Will Jensen Huang be in the top 10 of the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List on September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T18:59:38.061018Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:21:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of Aug 27, 2024, Jensen Huang had a net worth of $112 B according to Forbes. The 10th place ranked Amancio Ortega was listed as having a net worth of $123 B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jensen Huang is in the top 10 (ranked 10th or higher) on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If he is in a tie for 10th, this resolves as **No**. If Huang is in a tie for 9th or better, this will resolve as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941007.753386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.307 ], "centers": [ 0.36666666666666664 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43200000000000005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941007.753386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.307 ], "centers": [ 0.36666666666666664 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.43200000000000005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6333333333333333, 0.36666666666666664 ], "means": [ 0.36957120527285664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06395130800982807, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6391388653493315, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3427692223916379, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1953059349544968, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.11180750406153984, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 34.10369178350669, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 34.10369178350669 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724941007.809315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724941007.809315, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7646384726598748, 0.23536152734012514 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of Aug 27, 2024, Jensen Huang had a net worth of $112 B according to Forbes. The 10th place ranked Amancio Ortega was listed as having a net worth of $123 B." }, { "id": 27714, "title": "Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?", "short_title": "Will AGI massively boost lab-grown meat?", "url_title": "Will AGI massively boost lab-grown meat?", "slug": "will-agi-massively-boost-lab-grown-meat", "author_id": 196604, "author_username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T11:42:04.346462Z", "published_at": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T07:03:48.283072Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2067-12-27T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2068-02-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 27714, "title": "Will AGI-caused economic growth lead to lab-grown meat pushing out factory farming?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T11:42:04.346462Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T11:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-30T11:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-30T11:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2068-02-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2067-12-27T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2067-12-27T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sometimes people predict that if we achieved AI that could automate all or almost all current human labour we could see very rapid economic growth (>15% a year) and scientific advancement. I am interested in whether IF AI turbocharges growth in this manner, we will see factory farming rapidly become technologically obsolete. (Mostly because I think factory farming is a moral catastrophe.) I've chosen to operationalize this as whether 10 years after worldwide economic growth first hits >15%, >50% of meat purchased in the US will be lab grown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat. \nFor background on cultured meat see: https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw8rW2BhAgEiwAoRO5rMOuoWDn_XtH4SJdcVvn9KvVTmw6FxqAChKQ54Lwomo7h-DgWynfkhoCMlQQAvD_BwE \n\nhttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/02/is-cultivated-meat-for-real#:~:text=Scaling%20Up%20the%20Manufacturing%20Process,cells%20mixed%20in%20a%20liquid.", "resolution_criteria": "If we are 10 years after at least 1 year of >15% growth in world GPD and lab-grown meat has over 50% market share in $ in the US, I will resolve this yes. If we are 10 years after 1 year of >15% world GDP growth and lab-grown meat has under 50% US market share I will resolve no. If we never see >15% growth in world GPD, this will remain unresolved. For worldwide growth rate I will use this Statistia page: https://www.statista.com/statistics/273951/growth-of-the-global-gross-domestic-product-gdp/#:~:text=In%20most%20years%20since%201980,around%203%20percent%20in%202029. (If the page disappears, I will look for figures from the IMF). I don't currently have any resolution source in mind for the proportion of meat sold that is lab-grown: I will use whatever reasonable source for this I can find if needed.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27714, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760943817.843407, "end_time": 1862493446.065612, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760943817.843407, "end_time": 1862493446.065612, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.27900172816294017 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287776.794292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287776.794292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6262352334513516, 0.37376476654864843 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sometimes people predict that if we achieved AI that could automate all or almost all current human labour we could see very rapid economic growth (>15% a year) and scientific advancement. I am interested in whether IF AI turbocharges growth in this manner, we will see factory farming rapidly become technologically obsolete. (Mostly because I think factory farming is a moral catastrophe.) I've chosen to operationalize this as whether 10 years after worldwide economic growth first hits >15%, >50% of meat purchased in the US will be lab grown: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultured_meat. \nFor background on cultured meat see: https://thecounter.org/lab-grown-cultivated-meat-cost-at-scale/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAjw8rW2BhAgEiwAoRO5rMOuoWDn_XtH4SJdcVvn9KvVTmw6FxqAChKQ54Lwomo7h-DgWynfkhoCMlQQAvD_BwE \n\nhttps://asteriskmag.com/issues/02/is-cultivated-meat-for-real#:~:text=Scaling%20Up%20the%20Manufacturing%20Process,cells%20mixed%20in%20a%20liquid." }, { "id": 27713, "title": "Will another Chinese military aircraft violate Japanese territorial airspace before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Chinese aircraft violates Japanese airspace?", "url_title": "Chinese aircraft violates Japanese airspace?", "slug": "chinese-aircraft-violates-japanese-airspace", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T09:39:21.793465Z", 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"spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, between August 28, 2024, and September 30, 2024 (inclusive), the Japanese Defense Ministry officially states that a Chinese military aircraft has violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if no such violation is stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry during the specified time period.", "fine_print": "- The violation must be officially stated to have occurred by the Japanese Defense Ministry through a public statement, press release, or other official communication channels.\n\n- The aircraft involved must be identified as belonging to the Chinese military (People's Liberation Army Air Force, Navy, or other branches).\n\n- The violation must occur within Japanese territorial airspace, as defined by international law (for example, 12 nautical miles out from any of its coastlines) and recognized by the Japanese government.\n\n- Incursions into Japan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) that do not enter Japanese territorial airspace will not count as violations for the purpose of this question.\n\n- If multiple violations occur during the specified time period, the question will still resolve as \"Yes\".", "post_id": 27713, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754918.18384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754918.18384, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.01502510871244049 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.706194253974587, 5.537845486311979, 0.3904744780104372, 0.3906248983650008, 0.008061960629922116, 0.010533797021803945, 0.0, 0.0072248859019448525, 0.01352731712145787, 0.01712440175196844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015244917867552703, 0.0012381970298981316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2588272158716479, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005954758208044591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.033589175770808, "coverage": 0.9999152677508775, "baseline_score": 95.27871836339102, "spot_peer_score": 17.634125699681334, "peer_archived_score": 6.033589175770808, "baseline_archived_score": 95.27871836339102, "spot_peer_archived_score": 17.634125699681334 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754918.255028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754918.255028, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 264, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Monday, August 26, 2024, the Japanese Defense Ministry [confirmed](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2024/08/26/japan/china-japan-airspace-violation/) that a Chinese military Y-9 intelligence-gathering plane had briefly entered Japanese territory near the Danjo Islands off Nagasaki Prefecture. This incident marked the [first time](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/27/asia/japan-china-military-plane-airspace-violation-intl-hnk-ml/index.html) a Chinese military aircraft was confirmed to have violated Japanese territorial airspace.\n\nIn response to the violation, Japan strongly protested the move, and the Air Self-Defense Force scrambled fighter jets to respond to the incident. The fighter jets reportedly took steps such as \"issuing warnings,\" but no weapons or flares were fired.\n\nThis incident has raised concerns about the potential for future violations of Japanese airspace by Chinese military aircraft, as tensions between the two countries remain high due to ongoing territorial disputes and geopolitical rivalries in the region." }, { "id": 27711, "title": "Will Taylor Swift publicly endorse Kamala Harris for president before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris", "url_title": "Taylor Swift's endorsement of Kamala Harris", "slug": "taylor-swifts-endorsement-of-kamala-harris", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T09:33:35.803308Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.976828Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": 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"2024-09-11T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Taylor Swift publicly endorses Kamala Harris for president through an official statement, social media post, or public appearance, before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if Taylor Swift does not publicly endorse Kamala Harris before the specified date and time, or if she endorses another candidate.", "fine_print": "- The endorsement must be a clear, unambiguous statement of support for Kamala Harris's presidential campaign. Vague statements or implications of support will not count. Reports which describe Swift as \"endorsing\" Harris or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Swift saying unambiguously that she intends to vote for Harris would also count.\n\n- The endorsement must come directly from Taylor Swift or her official representatives. Statements from anonymous sources or speculation will not be considered. Reports that she has told people privately that she will vote for Harris will not count for the purpose of this question. \n\n- If Taylor Swift endorses Kamala Harris after October 1, 2024, or if she does not endorse any candidate, the question will still resolve as \"No\".\n\n- Announcing that she will vote for Harris or is encouraging other people to vote for Harris will count as an endorsement.\n\n- In the event that Kamala Harris withdraws from the presidential race or is not the Democratic nominee, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 27711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726025962.182524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726025962.182524, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.7261252408136094 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0016771748530350252, 0.1453243449079491, 0.022556935951370632, 0.010692366847123947, 0.0, 0.012499835524601176, 0.003139282596533214, 0.053636441777860235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2535162865173077, 0.0, 0.0156924345478448, 0.0, 0.006526864650835598, 0.6678599602769817, 0.0, 0.1754528861180675, 0.414571236316077, 0.0, 1.7457049010109584, 0.0028433268361718112, 0.0, 0.2153692164022835, 0.0022290332259855368, 0.9770817276112653, 0.11707007356349668, 0.019553963805070133, 0.1713018555835277, 0.0, 0.6983079274097594, 0.0, 0.009110146485231669, 0.2566887375060741, 0.09839387272843594, 0.1970530367518326, 0.0023182354423547605, 0.0, 0.0059866825919037, 0.00987466895005639, 0.07105682390468654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018185587562186818, 0.014559218523516859, 0.0018730169681004513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08745501623158428, 0.14117810888991986, 0.0, 0.00045259954456378565, 0.15524038519457387, 0.004179282557804217, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387312955844609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05710974615261928, 0.001676867802436716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2805179832756555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022189844218063637, 0.0, 0.4380890258355279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.2077347573969934e-05, 0.0006069389582748934, 0.0, 0.0007050588977482321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07305306091906709, 12.432443035635632 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.370321266602233, "coverage": 0.40279133928213734, "baseline_score": -22.631621851804894, "spot_peer_score": -12.47931416377584, "peer_archived_score": 6.370321266602233, "baseline_archived_score": -22.631621851804894, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.47931416377584 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726015139.181413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726015139.181413, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9054368920887009, 0.0945631079112991 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 300, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to sources close to Taylor Swift, the popular singer is [reportedly preparing](https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/taylor-swift-ready-to-endorse-kamala-harris-within-she-wants-strong-woman-president-101724633030603.html) to endorse Kamala Harris for president within the next four to six weeks as the 2024 US presidential election campaign intensifies. Swift, who has a history of supporting the Democratic Party, is said to be driven by her desire to see a strong woman in the White House.\n\nDuring the 2020 election, Swift supported the Biden-Harris ticket, and her endorsement is considered more likely to go to Harris than to Donald Trump, whom she previously wanted to vote out. Swift's endorsement could have a significant impact on the election, as her previous 'go vote' appeal led to a surge in youth voter turnout.\n\nSources claim that Swift is excited about the prospect of Harris becoming the first female president in U.S. history and sees her as a unifying figure who will address the issues people face and excel at running the country." }, { "id": 27642, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "short_title": "Ethiopia and Somalia agreement by Oct 1 '24?", "url_title": "Ethiopia and Somalia agreement by Oct 1 '24?", "slug": "ethiopia-and-somalia-agreement-by-oct-1-24", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-27T02:27:53.628984Z", "published_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.718084Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27642, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Ethiopia and Somalia announce an agreement settling their dispute over the Somaliland port deal?", "created_at": "2024-08-27T02:27:53.628984Z", "open_time": "2024-09-04T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-07T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August 20, 2024 without an agreement. \n\nLandlocked Ethiopia is seeking access to the sea, and it signed an [agreement](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/05/the-world-shames-ethiopia-over-recognizing-somaliland/) with Somaliland in which Somaliland offered Ethiopia a 20-year lease on the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of Somaliland: \n\n<img src=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ethiopia-somaliland.jpg\" />\n\nSomaliland is an unrecognized country, and Ethiopia's recognition would be the first time a UN member state has recognized it, which would be a big step toward it normalizing its status in the international community. For its part, Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory and the government in Hargeisa not entitled to sign the deal. The agreement has [angered](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/why-is-somalia-angry-about-neighbouring-ethiopias-new-port-deal) Mogadishu, which views it as an attack on its sovereignty, leading to sharply increased tensions.\n\nAccording to [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/somalia-ethiopia-turkey-port-somaliland/) (FP) ([archived link](https://archive.ph/SwsUP)):\n\n>Turkey, which has trade and defense ties with both nations and is vying for increased influence in the Horn of Africa, was reportedly asked to intervene by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In a call with the Turkish president, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was ready to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia” but insisted that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.”\n\n>Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately met his counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi from Somalia and Taye Atske Selassie from Ethiopia, on Aug. 13 in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Fidan told a news conference that there was now “convergence on some major principles.”\n\nSee also: \n\n- [Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21138/somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024/)\n\n- [Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21137/ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the governments of Ethiopia and Somalia publicly announce an agreement (acknowledged by both sides) settling their dispute over the [Ethiopia–Somaliland memorandum of understanding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ethiopia%E2%80%93Somaliland_memorandum_of_understanding), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), before October 1, 2024. \n\nIf this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "To be clear, the agreement itself need not be entirely public, merely the announcement of its existence and the fact that it settles the Somalian objection to the Ethiopia-Somaliland agreement. The terms offered by Addis Ababa are also not relevant to the question, as long as Somalia is no longer in opposition to the situation.", "post_id": 27642, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754925.296502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754925.296502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.0116558005407258 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.420999783699573, 1.802168859462668, 0.8541497682809729, 0.23547194702627636, 0.03907094403014007, 0.00762278143747319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06962830631134159, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0014387166970790141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05098420589841443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10866903142063072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.900486179309461, "coverage": 0.9999894423649032, "baseline_score": 93.05425485339478, "spot_peer_score": 3.5739677704485477, "peer_archived_score": 4.900486179309461, "baseline_archived_score": 93.05425485339478, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.5739677704485477 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754925.350602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754925.350602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 296, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A third round of talks between Ethiopia and Somalia [is scheduled](https://www.thereporterethiopia.com/41513/) to begin in Ankara, Turkey on September 17, 2024. The second round [ended](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/second-round-somalia-ethiopia-talks-turkey-ends-with-no-deal-progress-made-2024-08-13/) on August 20, 2024 without an agreement. \n\nLandlocked Ethiopia is seeking access to the sea, and it signed an [agreement](https://moderndiplomacy.eu/2024/01/05/the-world-shames-ethiopia-over-recognizing-somaliland/) with Somaliland in which Somaliland offered Ethiopia a 20-year lease on the port of Berbera in exchange for Ethiopia's eventual recognition of Somaliland: \n\n<img src=\"https://moderndiplomacy.eu/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/ethiopia-somaliland.jpg\" />\n\nSomaliland is an unrecognized country, and Ethiopia's recognition would be the first time a UN member state has recognized it, which would be a big step toward it normalizing its status in the international community. For its part, Somalia considers Somaliland to be part of its sovereign territory and the government in Hargeisa not entitled to sign the deal. The agreement has [angered](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/1/6/why-is-somalia-angry-about-neighbouring-ethiopias-new-port-deal) Mogadishu, which views it as an attack on its sovereignty, leading to sharply increased tensions.\n\nAccording to [Foreign Policy](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/08/21/somalia-ethiopia-turkey-port-somaliland/) (FP) ([archived link](https://archive.ph/SwsUP)):\n\n>Turkey, which has trade and defense ties with both nations and is vying for increased influence in the Horn of Africa, was reportedly asked to intervene by Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. In a call with the Turkish president, Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud said his country was ready to “engage in economic and development cooperation with Ethiopia” but insisted that “such partnerships must always respect Somalia’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, and adhere to international law and norms.”\n\n>Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan separately met his counterparts, Ahmed Moallim Fiqi from Somalia and Taye Atske Selassie from Ethiopia, on Aug. 13 in Turkey’s capital, Ankara. Fidan told a news conference that there was now “convergence on some major principles.”\n\nSee also: \n\n- [Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21138/somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024/)\n\n- [Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21137/ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties/)" }, { "id": 27641, "title": "Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?", "short_title": "Harris-Trump debate on 9/10/24?", "url_title": "Harris-Trump debate on 9/10/24?", "slug": "harris-trump-debate-on-91024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-26T20:25:17.681041Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.411575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-11T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27641, "title": "Will there be a US presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris held on September 10, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T20:25:17.681041Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-29T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T01:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T01:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-11T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-11T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ABC News [is scheduled](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/next-biden-trump-presidential-debate-september-abc/story?id=111408116) to host the 2nd and final presidential debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. \"World News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with final rules still to be determined, and the two campaigns reportedly [clashing](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4847464-trump-harris-debate-mic-dispute/) over whether microphones would be muted.\n\nOn August 26, 2024, Trump [suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/trump-harris-debate-abc/) he may skip the debate, posting on social media: \n\n>I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s (K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?\n\nFor its part the Harris campaign has [remained in favor](https://deadline.com/2024/08/trump-harris-presidential-debate-abc-news-1236050101/) of the debate despite the current disputes over the rules.\n\nOn August 27, 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had [reached an agreement](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gives-debate-update-kamala-harris-1945130) with Harris for a debate on September 10, though the post disparaged the debate host, ABC News, saying\n\n>It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business. . .\n\nHistorically with debates involving Trump, the presidential debate scheduled for October 15, 2020 [was cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html), as was a presidential primary [debate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#March_21,_2016_%E2%80%93_Salt_Lake_City,_Utah) originally scheduled for March 21, 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a formal, live presidential debate which includes both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris takes place on September 10, 2024.\n\nIf there is no such debate on that exact date, whether because it has been rescheduled, canceled, Harris or Trump have declined to participate, or for any other reason, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "A debate is [currently scheduled](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/when-is-second-presidential-debate-2024/) for 9 PM Eastern Time on September 10, 2024, hosted by ABC News. Any other time or host would count, however, as long as the debate is held on that date.\n\nA debate that begins on September 9, 2024 or ends on September 11, 2024 ([Eastern Time](https://time.is/ET)) will count, as long as any portion of it takes place on September 10, 2024.\n\nPlease note that this must be a presidential debate for it to count. Therefore if either Harris or Trump is no longer the Democratic or Republican presidential nominee, respectively, on September 10, 2024 then this question resolves as No.\n\nA qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for president in the 2024 US election.\n\nBoth Harris and Trump as the Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, respectively, must participate in the debate, responding to each other and/or moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both Harris and Trump are present. If either Trump or Harris is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason for or presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as No.\n\nThe debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously. Pre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\nThe debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both Trump and Harris participating live.\n\nAlternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 27641, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726002676.995017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726002676.995017, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0050000000000000044, 0.995 ], "means": [ 0.9876838664020832 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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News Tonight\" anchor David Muir and ABC News Live Prime anchor Linsey Davis are slated to moderate the debate at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, with final rules still to be determined, and the two campaigns reportedly [clashing](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4847464-trump-harris-debate-mic-dispute/) over whether microphones would be muted.\n\nOn August 26, 2024, Trump [suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/08/26/trump-harris-debate-abc/) he may skip the debate, posting on social media: \n\n>I watched ABC FAKE NEWS this morning, both lightweight reporter Jonathan Carl’s (K?) ridiculous and biased interview of Tom Cotton (who was fantastic!), and their so-called Panel of Trump Haters, and I ask, why would I do the Debate against Kamala Harris on that network?\n\nFor its part the Harris campaign has [remained in favor](https://deadline.com/2024/08/trump-harris-presidential-debate-abc-news-1236050101/) of the debate despite the current disputes over the rules.\n\nOn August 27, 2024, Trump posted on Truth Social saying he had [reached an agreement](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-gives-debate-update-kamala-harris-1945130) with Harris for a debate on September 10, though the post disparaged the debate host, ABC News, saying\n\n>It will be Broadcast Live on ABC FAKE NEWS, by far the nastiest and most unfair newscaster in the business. . .\n\nHistorically with debates involving Trump, the presidential debate scheduled for October 15, 2020 [was cancelled](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/09/politics/second-presidential-debate-canceled/index.html), as was a presidential primary [debate](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_Republican_Party_presidential_debates_and_forums#March_21,_2016_%E2%80%93_Salt_Lake_City,_Utah) originally scheduled for March 21, 2016." }, { "id": 27640, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": 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"forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27640, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T19:29:36.642206Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T12:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T12:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T12:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.\n\nThe state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. \n\nIf the message returned is: \"доступ ограничивается к странице\" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf the message returned is: \"По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено\" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is *not* included in the blocklist and this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis question also resolves as **Yes** if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Note that the shortened version, `youtu.be` is already included in the blocklist, and this site does NOT trigger the resolution.\n\nMetaculus admins may also use another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if they have reasons to believe that the Roskomnadzor site's data are inaccurate.\n\nChanges in the phrasing used by Roskomnadzor's blocklist site will not affect resolution of this question, since the question resolves based on whether access to YouTube is limited or restricted according to Roskomnadzor, regardless of the exact wording.", "post_id": 27640, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724855229.782679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724855229.782679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.63895887757483 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn." }, { "id": 27639, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": 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"visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27639, "title": "Will the median person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be from the United States on September 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T19:29:36.507816Z", 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"description": "On July 10, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 7 were from the United States. On the entire list, 189 out of 500 indivduals were from the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed as being from the United States, when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other country.", "fine_print": "\"For purposes of this question, the \"median\" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\n\nIf the list contains fewer than 250 people on the resolution date, this question will be resolved as the last person on the list.\n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27639, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724855232.12247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.624 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724855232.12247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.624 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6370553152531705 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8848177692252168, 0.27308960725456716, 0.11160910633783082, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 2.091070896340876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5710428169227257, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.8583964350049837, 0.0, 0.0, 1.621059932686841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724855232.160341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724855232.160341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4027462088222694, 0.5972537911777306 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 10, 2024, of the 10 individuals ranked 246-255 on Bloomberg's list, 7 were from the United States. 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Previously Meta/Facebook has done significant rounds of layoffs in 2023 and 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Meta, Facebook or Instagram have layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Meta, Facebook or Instagram appear for August 2024 or September 2024. If Meta, Facebook or Instagram are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Meta, Facebook or Instagram. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 27638, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724855318.168174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724855318.168174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.41 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5900000000000001, 0.41 ], "means": [ 0.43805970439990083 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.24153906428984848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17780461762748717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0411086077723675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3804355533287551, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.006555815593682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36939514476402757, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.20210224092942627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 23.878685958711674, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 23.878685958711674 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724855318.197802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724855318.197802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7181383640074752, 0.28186163599252473 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the launch of the question, neither Meta, Facebook nor Instagram had any listings at the resolution source. Previously Meta/Facebook has done significant rounds of layoffs in 2023 and 2022." }, { "id": 27637, "title": "Will \"Dilemma\" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-dilemma-by-green-day-win-the-award-for-best-rock-at-the-2024-mtv-vmas", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-26T19:29:36.299966Z", "published_at": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.558619Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27637, "title": "Will \"Dilemma\" by Green Day win the award for Best Rock at the 2024 MTV VMAs?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T19:29:36.299966Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T00:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Notable other nominees are \"Feelslikeimfallinginlove\" by Coldplay, \"Mustang\" by Kings of Leon, and \"Atomic City\" by U2.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if \"Dilemma\" by Green Day wins the Best Rock award at the 2024 MTV Video Music Awards. The resolution source will be the Wikipedia page [2024 MTV Video Music Awards\n](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_MTV_Video_Music_Awards) or other credible sources reporting on this awards ceremony. If this does not happen, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "The awards show is scheduled for September 10, 2024.", "post_id": 27637, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724855395.326403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724855395.326403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.31946465377582967 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6392434551590467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037294469669841235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4482361496814429, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.3260481154903181, 0.0646131558445074, 1.3714882444006613, 0.0, 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27629, "title": "Will Russia control Pokrovsk Before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T18:51:17.885999Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T18:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T18:48:07.491605Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Oblast. A recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has not appeared to slow Russian momentum near Pokrovsk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if the coordinates in Pokrovsk of 48°17'12.9\"N 37°10'39.8\"E are assessed as under Russian control according to [this Institute for the Study of War map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) before January 1, 2025. This question will resolve as **no** otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine or Russia cease to exist, this question will resolve as **ambiguous**. \n\nIf the ISW ceases to update maps (at least weekly) or ceases to exist, [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en#14/48.2869053/37.1777344) will be used instead.", "post_id": 27629, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696155.603001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696155.603001, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009189810183348 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.230320500041872, 0.8424856503108531, 0.18178762072489063, 0.053483974712060484, 0.30457021256144695, 0.18832103630548677, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016239925584613617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.52985828689027, "peer_score": 27.769060630207235, "coverage": 0.999360676846691, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999360676846691, "spot_peer_score": 10.114067702311857, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 83.52985828689027, "peer_archived_score": 27.769060630207235, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.114067702311857, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287985.367549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287985.367549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9852636139511303, 0.01473638604886973 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the months since Russia captured Avdiivka, they have gained control of land at a relatively steady pace on the [eastern frontline](https://archive.ph/ABnN0), though likely at high personnel costs. If the city of Pokrovsk is captured, Ukraine will have mounting difficulties controlling Russian advances in DONETSK Oblast. A recent Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has not appeared to slow Russian momentum near Pokrovsk." }, { "id": 27626, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "short_title": "Russian draft demobilization in 2024?", "url_title": "Russian draft demobilization in 2024?", "slug": "russian-draft-demobilization-in-2024", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-26T06:25:51.788116Z", "published_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.673271Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27626, "title": "Will the Russian 2024 autumn draft demobilization start on time?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T06:25:51.788116Z", "open_time": "2024-08-28T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T17:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T17:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a presidential decree for demobilization of conscripts is issued before October 1, 2024, and said decree mentions that demobilization must start not later than October 7, 2024. If no presidential decree about demobilization is issued on time, or demobilization is postponed to later date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "All presidential decrees are required to be published in the Russian state newspaper [Rossiyskaya Gazeta (RG)](https://rg.ru/) by law, so it may be used as credible source, if regular [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) do not report on it. Presidential decrees can also be found in the [Kremlin bank of documents](https://www.kremlin.ru/acts/bank/page/1).", "post_id": 27626, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727767625.429456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727767625.429456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9082415784018812 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.17996760223835576, 0.021203521862876884, 0.001821789957966981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017045521296473166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005292742945254508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02889739734118714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035159820106228076, 0.0, 0.0011005415108165126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015220610711278141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026120776162701476, 0.0, 0.02071575577607233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014387166970790141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07222825528385914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12978299577054345, 0.0, 0.15948589188226622, 0.06544393424008937, 0.0, 0.2758223863426946, 0.15305321622707097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21600074015224635, 0.0, 0.2645086959655356, 0.0, 0.0557348588410026, 0.16124230011287516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1653940142859731, 0.0, 0.6255399236864891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1848243905632059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6570695930046578, 0.006220517787109449, 0.012023428955703545, 1.207472523032754, 0.0, 0.6986181450882394, 2.0382841775052087, 0.7886916210366777, 0.0, 1.5804197412804393, 5.726043996733148 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727769106.882193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727769106.882193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08593524316009127, 0.9140647568399087 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 278, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Russia is using a mixed policy in its army, with most troops being contract soldiers, but still maintaining a conscript draft which lasts for 1 year, and comes in two waves: Spring and Autumn. For [legal and political reasons](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-signs-decree-spring-military-conscription-2024-03-31/), conscripts are not being used in Russian invasion in Ukraine, and mostly guard the border. With the recent Ukrainian invasion in Russia, however, there are multiple credible reports of conscripts being under fire, maintaining defensive fortifications against Ukrainian forces, or being captured. Notably, only a small portion of contract troops were withdrawn from other fronts, and it is questionable if Russia can defend its border without using conscripts and conducting another wave of mobilization.\n\nConscripts that were drafted last Autumn are to be discharged this Autumn. This is regulated by presidential decrees, usually published in the last days of September, and specifying that discharge should start on October 1. Last year, the decree was published on [September 29](https://rg.ru/documents/2023/09/29/prezident-ukaz735-site-dok.html) and it is a rule rather than exception. Demobilization usually lasts for several months, while Spring conscripts are being sent from training centers to positions." }, { "id": 27625, "title": "Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Durov leaves France before 2025", "url_title": "Durov leaves France before 2025", "slug": "durov-leaves-france-before-2025", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-26T06:08:53.822934Z", "published_at": "2024-08-27T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.394529Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-27T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 45, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "💰", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27625, "title": "Will Pavel Durov leave France before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-08-26T06:08:53.822934Z", "open_time": "2024-08-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T16:01:06.357504Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.\n\nHe left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.\n\nReportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before January 1, 2025, that Pavel Durov has left France. If no such report is made before deadline, question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* Durov's legal status does not affect resolution of this question (e.g. being extradited counts as Yes).\n* Duration of leave does not affect question resolution either (a reported overnight trip to London, then back to France counts as **Yes**).\n* If Pavel Durov goes missing or dies in France before January 1, 2025, this question should be **Annulled**", "post_id": 27625, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697356.237536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697356.237536, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14150187354043278 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.263673971609969, 0.9784106968704881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9040618549384852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.0, 0.9316022856515966, 0.5265764566181663, 0.5726740774817343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.508240336318286, 0.0, 0.44358054667768915, 0.6197871946757506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3395232167316722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0876562031162544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11680392496128994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7283432921753616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.23260372818648983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21090064865754035, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04535037156571558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01328166791512114 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 51.34931367933814, "peer_score": 43.75172231729632, "coverage": 0.9999911555218208, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999911555218208, "spot_peer_score": 35.11939978020427, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 51.34931367933814, "peer_archived_score": 43.75172231729632, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.11939978020427, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290021.95482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290021.95482, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9309089222277269, 0.06909107777227304 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Pavel Durov is a Russian enterpreneur, founder of several projects, most known for VK social networking site, Telegram messaging app and TON blockchain network.\n\nHe left Russia in 2014 and was forced to sell VK after refusing to give Russian state agencies access to private user messages. He went on to found Telegram messaging app which faced similar issues, and was blocked in Russia after refusal to provide encryption keys to FSB, which led to several years of whack-a-mole game between Roskomnadzor and Telegram, former trying to prevent access to latter, and Telegram [winning this game in 2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blocking_of_Telegram_in_Russia), when Roskomnadzor officially gave up.\n\nReportedly, neither Russian nor Western intelligence agencies currently have access to Telegram encryption keys and *encrypted* user messages. Pavel Durov [was arrested in France on August 24](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/25/technology/pavel-durov-telegram-detained-france.html) during his private jet emergency refueling stop, on accounts of assisting terrorism and drug trafficking (and some others, totaling 20) by refusing to provide Telegram encryption keys to French state agencies." }, { "id": 27610, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Kursk Nuclear Plant 51°40'30.1\"N 35°36'11.5\"E before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-kursk-nuclear-plant-5140301n-3536115e-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.694011Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.101031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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\n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reports in its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls Kursk Nuclear Plant at the coordinates 51°40'30.1\"N 35°36'11.5\"E\n\nThe longer and more detailed instructions are as follows:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste the coordinates into the search box.\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.\n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.\n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, the subquestion resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27610, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768175.12058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07200000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768175.12058, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07200000000000001 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.14839595725162485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.8455368295694525, 0.0, 0.05483270922417936, 0.0094962884186239, 0.2165516399116612, 0.0, 2.0480128012704064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 2.172322881124903, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3550696650578925, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.6235522877629692, 0.0, 0.5122589247593297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.8032867634235953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768175.154452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768175.154452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9626524265342259, 0.037347573465774137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant." } ] }
