Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2560
{ "count": 5967, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2580", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2540", "results": [ { "id": 25755, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "short_title": "Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?", "url_title": "Biden announces drop-out before July 15 2024?", "slug": "biden-announces-drop-out-before-july-15-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "published_at": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.640216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 102, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 214, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25755, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 15, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "created_at": "2024-06-30T05:29:51.569016Z", "open_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-02T06:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-02T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-15T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a **Yes** resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 15, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.", "post_id": 25755, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720910225.221575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720910225.221575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 210, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04805731782072956 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.6789034476512033, 10.613625550412882, 5.109396816173699, 0.06698648077379216, 0.07617243347160466, 2.783301700667595, 0.8037610020603806, 0.3855292328690483, 0.4704415709537751, 0.3714409563781609, 1.8607411198542572, 0.0, 0.49671526053379245, 1.3828323339887284e-06, 0.007069364202659466, 0.8212633086873529, 0.0017167224788468593, 0.0013369439924845717, 0.008232796878272745, 0.20045633292084955, 0.14130254130018108, 0.002187980118989623, 0.0, 0.001188284319454295, 0.0, 0.0023222308709706947, 0.0, 0.00460347803303076, 0.003368249166680152, 0.0, 0.0050035238382107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024190565983143363, 0.0, 0.11045824812992058, 9.18618882553368e-05, 0.0001887104056766348, 3.141355342085993e-05, 0.0, 0.0007750602822640982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00026220635550182575, 1.402383808700119e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005989640763666538, 0.005222476688455733, 0.0002839190414233491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12621010186925966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010105212106725643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003319135389606362, 0.0, 0.006707400796675769, 0.0, 8.335872854983983e-05, 0.15754327248436237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15845793653608387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009568160587476772 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.06569263892481, "coverage": 0.9975353086824773, "baseline_score": 77.1552181971318, "spot_peer_score": 5.0357813713576585, "peer_archived_score": 15.06569263892481, "baseline_archived_score": 77.1552181971318, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.0357813713576585 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720910225.276106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720910225.276106, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 214, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9986453039347641, 0.0013546960652358448 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 867, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”" }, { "id": 25753, "title": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?", "short_title": "Masoud Pezeshkian elected President of Iran?", "url_title": "Masoud Pezeshkian elected President of Iran?", "slug": "masoud-pezeshkian-elected-president-of-iran", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-29T15:00:04.446161Z", "published_at": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.686668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25753, "title": "Will Masoud Pezeshkian win the 2024 Iranian Presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-06-29T15:00:04.446161Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-30T06:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-30T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-06T05:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.\n\nThe very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Masoud Pezeshkian is announced as the winner of the 2024 Iranian presidential election, as reported by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) or the [IRNA](https://en.irna.ir/) agency. It will resolve **No** if Jalili wins.\n\nIf some outcome happens that is not one of the candidates being announced as the winner, the question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "The question will also be annulled if a winner is not announced before July 21st.\n\nThe winner need not be inaugurated, only a winner being declared in the election is required.", "post_id": 25753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720113289.692243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720113289.692243, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4464753223640251 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2909169046675799, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3491535785367932, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.7167104033792189, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4679105041067944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.8287854636040446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.2242282476777495, "coverage": 0.9760981268686719, "baseline_score": -39.44831100829938, "spot_peer_score": 9.7372038396256, "peer_archived_score": 4.2242282476777495, "baseline_archived_score": -39.44831100829938, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.7372038396256 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720113289.73391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720113289.73391, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6226719671391003, 0.37732803286089966 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19th, Iran is holding new elections. After clerics vetoed several of the candidates, the ones allowed to run faced off on June 28th.\n\nThe very low turnout first round saw relative moderate Masoud Pezeshkian and hardliner Saeed Jalili advance to the runoff with 44% and 40% of the votes, respectively." }, { "id": 25749, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On Oct 1 2024?", "url_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On Oct 1 2024?", "slug": "russia-controls-chasiv-yar-on-oct-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-29T01:22:34.517936Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.168996Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25749, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-29T01:22:34.517936Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:34.517000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 25749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727723701.047441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727723701.047441, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.007294984042394695 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.433813648180292, 3.3835955940045874, 0.03789069976444005, 0.3790438963874807, 0.004114140404594805, 0.984782648933561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005025223583386938, 0.0, 0.021273125366464498, 0.002397315038413529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001293184550844436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017334026632215326, 0.0005188593462568196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003530164138588579, 0.0, 0.0021341984025259253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000615974589918873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022660438791516336, 0.0, 0.02000917927428745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014746693272985987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029982420348446974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001853128008366541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007874347717174179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012614338989262936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.480512463146678, "coverage": 0.9999966122160495, "baseline_score": 82.35338076081848, "spot_peer_score": 22.001553766344518, "peer_archived_score": 17.480512463146678, "baseline_archived_score": 82.35338076081848, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.001553766344518 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727723701.101158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727723701.101158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 590, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 25743, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "short_title": 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"edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25743, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "created_at": "2024-06-28T13:23:39.575738Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:39.575000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.", "fine_print": "* Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 25743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727678474.359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727678474.359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 185, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.008203167471584569 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.310363666329835, 8.164262149682258, 0.4927247296375085, 0.05142314684634797, 0.0049038586214688795, 0.2428568435989998, 0.11083460236123699, 0.0, 0.0, 3.367060300310948e-06, 0.01718230033898494, 0.0, 0.24113134793001267, 0.001175788951837356, 0.0006384466058533839, 0.01562599315328636, 2.926281827765843e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.001265068497148e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005017383753279534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026843282706049184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006913148538560929, 0.04445036849150711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.759419234604731, "coverage": 0.9999977215722398, "baseline_score": 98.45151919915807, "spot_peer_score": 9.497434770249654, "peer_archived_score": 4.759419234604731, "baseline_archived_score": 98.45151919915807, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.497434770249654 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727684517.178624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727684517.178624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 190, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 448, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory." }, { "id": 25736, "title": "Carbon capture: will there be a miniaturized assay to measure CO₂ absorption of water-based solvents before 2028?", "short_title": "2028: mini assay of carbon capture solvent", "url_title": "2028: mini assay of carbon capture solvent", "slug": "2028-mini-assay-of-carbon-capture-solvent", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-28T10:44:36.871170Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.189350Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25736, "title": "Carbon capture: will there be a miniaturized assay to measure CO₂ absorption of water-based solvents before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-06-28T10:44:36.871170Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-06-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "One way to address global warming is to remove greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere or prevent them from getting there in the first place. The former approach is called direct air capture, and the latter is point-source capture. This question focuses on point sources, specifically dilute ones. The CO₂ content in the gas that leaves a coal power plant is usually 3-15%; compared to other, more concentrated industrial sources, this low concentration makes capture harder.\n\nThe process involves passing the CO2-containing gas mixture through a solvent (e.g. a potassium carbonate solution). The solvent contains some variation of an enzyme called carbonic anhydrase, which makes the process more efficient by increasing the amount of CO2 from the incoming gas that is moved into storage. This question focuses on such anhydrases.\n\nThese proteins vary in how tightly they bind carbon dioxide to the solution; binding tightly is desirable from the point of view of removing it from the incoming gas, but undesirable when it comes to transferring it from the solution for storage. This variation contributes to the cost of the whole process of carbon capture, with the ideal catalyst removing a lot of CO₂ and releasing it easily.\n\nSynthetic biology can be used to engineer lower-cost anhydrase varieties. One bottleneck in the process of developing and iterating on candidate enzymes is the assay used to measure how much carbon dioxide they help absorb; existing assays currently require about half a liter of the solvent, and the enzyme is used at a concentration on the order of ~1 mg/mL, therefore requiring 0.1-1 g of enzyme per experiment. These conditions are not very representative of the actual conditions of the capture process; therefore, different assays are sought.\n\nIt is projected that an assay that requires less than 100 microliters of aqueous solvent, uses less than 5 milligrams of the enzyme and does not immobilize it onto a solid support or matrix would fit these conditions of matching the actual capture process. We therefore ask: will such an assay be developed by the end of 2027?", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as **Yes** if an assay exists before January 1, 2028 that:\n\n* measures the absorption rate of carbon dioxide in aqueous solvents;\n* does so in conditions that generally match those of dilute point-source capture;\n* requires less than 100 μL of the solvent;\n* requires less than 5 mg of carbonic anhydrase;\n* does not immobilize the enzyme;\n* can either be purchased in a batch of 100 units, or has reported yearly sales of at least 1,000. The sales figure can be annualized if the product becomes available shortly before the question closes; sales of 250 in a quarter count as 1,000 a year.\n\nIf there are no credible reports of an assay meeting all of the above criteria before January 1, 2028, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25736, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757956487.490774, "end_time": 1758371413.037035, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757956487.490774, "end_time": 1758371413.037035, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.07441083297573813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 1.1881289445475445, 0.0, 1.4010374343673093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287044.730941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287044.730941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9813943281449399, 0.018605671855060114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "One way to address global warming is to remove greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere or prevent them from getting there in the first place. The former approach is called direct air capture, and the latter is point-source capture. This question focuses on point sources, specifically dilute ones. The CO₂ content in the gas that leaves a coal power plant is usually 3-15%; compared to other, more concentrated industrial sources, this low concentration makes capture harder.\n\nThe process involves passing the CO2-containing gas mixture through a solvent (e.g. a potassium carbonate solution). The solvent contains some variation of an enzyme called carbonic anhydrase, which makes the process more efficient by increasing the amount of CO2 from the incoming gas that is moved into storage. This question focuses on such anhydrases.\n\nThese proteins vary in how tightly they bind carbon dioxide to the solution; binding tightly is desirable from the point of view of removing it from the incoming gas, but undesirable when it comes to transferring it from the solution for storage. This variation contributes to the cost of the whole process of carbon capture, with the ideal catalyst removing a lot of CO₂ and releasing it easily.\n\nSynthetic biology can be used to engineer lower-cost anhydrase varieties. One bottleneck in the process of developing and iterating on candidate enzymes is the assay used to measure how much carbon dioxide they help absorb; existing assays currently require about half a liter of the solvent, and the enzyme is used at a concentration on the order of ~1 mg/mL, therefore requiring 0.1-1 g of enzyme per experiment. These conditions are not very representative of the actual conditions of the capture process; therefore, different assays are sought.\n\nIt is projected that an assay that requires less than 100 microliters of aqueous solvent, uses less than 5 milligrams of the enzyme and does not immobilize it onto a solid support or matrix would fit these conditions of matching the actual capture process. We therefore ask: will such an assay be developed by the end of 2027?" }, { "id": 25730, "title": "If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?", "short_title": "US controls Tehran in war with Iran", "url_title": "US controls Tehran in war with Iran", "slug": "us-controls-tehran-in-war-with-iran", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T21:56:29.791495Z", "published_at": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.124320Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25730, "title": "If there is an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran before 2030, will the US control Tehran within one year?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T21:56:29.791495Z", "open_time": "2024-07-04T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-07T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United States and Iran have had poor relations since the 1979 [Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution). Since the October 7 [attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) on Israel, tensions between the two countries have grown even higher due to attacks against US and Israeli targets by Iran-backed groups. This has led many to speculate that tensions between the two countries could escalate into an all-out war, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US election and pursues a more aggressive policy against Iran than Joe Biden. If the US were to go to war with Iran, it is likely that [Russia](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240605-putin-warns-that-russia-could-supply-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets) (and possibly other countries hostile to the US) would provide Iran with as much aid as it could as payback for the US and NATO arming Ukraine, which could complicate US invasion plans.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States controls the entirety of [Tehran city's](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tehran) pre-war administrative boundaries according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) within 365 days of a congressional [declaration of war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Declaration_of_war_by_the_United_States) or [Authorization for Use of Military Force](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Authorization_for_Use_of_Military_Force) (AUMF) by the United States going into effect. Territorial control will be determined based on reporting from credible war mappers. If there is no such declaration of war or AUMF before January 1, 2030, this question will be **Annulled**. Only territorial control by US and Iranian government forces will be considered for the purpose of this question. Control by other parties such as insurgents/partisans will not be taken into account. If within the year after an American AUMF or declaration of war against Iran this US control of Tehran does not occur, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25730, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755566444.512631, "end_time": 1761083648.729904, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.216 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755566444.512631, "end_time": 1761083648.729904, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.216 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.17123043680066827 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2520361713248667, 0.08361113821860161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4830457494093814, 0.1689794243835187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.492383508225005, 0.0, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9086094453001934, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9544244901964052, 0.44760345783570343, 0.5928733813562592, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0059775418840502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.216998672059816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190235437913919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010195728329581903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19574653130897124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288085.692496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288085.692496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8873015565749469, 0.11269844342505309 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United States and Iran have had poor relations since the 1979 [Iranian Revolution](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Revolution). Since the October 7 [attack](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) on Israel, tensions between the two countries have grown even higher due to attacks against US and Israeli targets by Iran-backed groups. This has led many to speculate that tensions between the two countries could escalate into an all-out war, particularly if Donald Trump wins the 2024 US election and pursues a more aggressive policy against Iran than Joe Biden. If the US were to go to war with Iran, it is likely that [Russia](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240605-putin-warns-that-russia-could-supply-weapons-to-others-to-strike-western-targets) (and possibly other countries hostile to the US) would provide Iran with as much aid as it could as payback for the US and NATO arming Ukraine, which could complicate US invasion plans." }, { "id": 25720, "title": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?", "short_title": "2030: $10M for plant data citizen science", "url_title": "2030: $10M for plant data citizen science", "slug": "2030-10m-for-plant-data-citizen-science", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:36:31.699428Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.838807Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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"id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25720, "title": "Before 2030, will citizen science initiatives to collect plant phenomic/genomic data across the globe receive at least $10 million in investment?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:36:31.699428Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-06-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if:\n\n* there are initiatives to involve ordinary people in collecting scientific data about plants in their local area;\n* these initiatives cover at least 30 countries in the Africa, Asia/Pacific and Latin America/Caribbean regions, with at least 4 countries in each of them;\n* in total, these initiatives receive at least $10 million in monetary investments.", "fine_print": "Territories included in the scope of this question are those south of a line that includes the southern US land and sea border, the Mediterranean territorial waters between the Strait of Gibraltar and the Syrian-Turkish border, then the land borders of Türkiye, Armenia, Azerbaijan and the stretch of the Russian border between the Caspian Sea and the Pacific Ocean. Australia and New Zealand are also excluded, but other territories such as Israel or French Guiana are included.\n\nInitiatives only count if they are open for participation by anyone in a given geographical area, without discrimination. It is allowed to require technical qualifications, but if the initiative itself offers this kind of training, it must be provided on this non-discriminatory basis.\n\nInvestment values will be inflation-adjusted to US dollars of 2024.\n\nThe term \"ordinary people\" is [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Citizen_science&oldid=1230609025) as \"the general public, or amateur/nonprofessional researchers or participants for science.\" \n\n\"Citizen science\" is defined by the Oxford English Dictionary as \"scientific work undertaken by members of the general public, often in collaboration with or under the direction of professional scientists and scientific institutions.\"\n\nIn-kind (i.e., non-monetary) contributions will not count towards the $10 million threshold. \n\nThis question resolves according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 25720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755062096.960894, "end_time": 1765186754.592922, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755062096.960894, "end_time": 1765186754.592922, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.6681762675169846 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6843503220564977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288076.473008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288076.473008, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6471248373637194, 0.3528751626362806 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Describing and cataloging plant species worldwide, and especially in less developed countries, often encounters bureaucratic obstacles with permits, funding and visas. An alternative is to train local residents, especially students, in how to perform the technical tasks required, so they can contribute data about their home regions. That, however, requires funding; will it happen in the next five years?\n\nSee Also \n\nProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences: [Data-driven approaches can harness crop diversity to address heterogeneous needs for breeding products](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10083534/)\n\nNature Ecology & Evolution: [Citizen science plant observations encode global trait patterns](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-022-01904-x)\n\nScience Advances: [The commonness of rarity: Global and future distribution of rarity across land plants](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz0414)" }, { "id": 25719, "title": "Before 2035, will an open source database of agricultural uses cover 25% of known plant species?", "short_title": "2035: plant farm use DB >25% species?", "url_title": "2035: plant farm use DB >25% species?", "slug": "2035-plant-farm-use-db-25-species", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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25719, "title": "Before 2035, will an open source database of agricultural uses cover 25% of known plant species?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T17:05:11.334280Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are ~300,000 land plant species, of which only a couple hundred are currently used in agriculture. A source of information about genomic and phenomic information from a broader set of species might lead to new agricultural uses to improve the food supply resilience, mitigate climate-related stressors, and increase productivity. Will such a database be built?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, a database exists with all the following properties:\n\n* the information in it is open source, meaning it is free to access and use;\n* it contains data about at least 25% of all known land plant species;\n* it is geared towards information plausibly useful for agricultural applications.", "fine_print": "The question focuses on the clade *Embryophyta*. Green algae and other species that can be called \"plants\" but are not in this clade are excluded.\nThis clade has about 300,000 known species, but only a couple hundred are currently farmed; these count for question resolution. Twenty-five percent of 300,000 is 75,000. \n\nThe database should allow users to search for a given kind of plant and get general information such as its scientific name, taxonomic classification, geographic distribution and basic ecology. It is acceptable for this general information to be provided via links to other sources (e.g. Wikipedia).\n\nThe information in the database itself can include \"laboratory-style\" data such as genetic sequences and phenomic descriptions, and also less formal observations from vernacular uses of plants.\n\nSpecies count for the total if they were known to be living at any point between question creation and resolution; mass extinctions do not change the total over which this question resolves. New species discoveries do.\n\nThe agricultural uses and techniques referred to in the database may be realized or only proposed/hypothetical; data might also be more general and not propose any specific use, as long as it can conceivably be used that way. E.g. \"the mandrake root contains 37% of high-quality starch\" is information that would count.\n\nAgriculture means any economic activity which requires growing plants. A non-exhaustive list of economic uses includes: direct human or animal consumption, construction, fuel, raw materials for industry (including pharmaceuticals), and aesthetics. Production can occur in a traditional soil farm, hydroponics, vertical farming or other technologies that might be developed to sustain the plants.\n\nFor this question, agriculture requires growing whole plant organisms, as opposed to just cultured cells or tissues. Any context where human-originated activities provide whole plants with conditions for their growth counts as \"growing\" them. Pruning does not affect the \"whole\" status.\n\nWhile cell cultures and other forms of partial plants do not count, it does count if selective breeding or other techniques are used to change the sizes and proportions of plant parts to favor more economically useful ones.\n\nThe database should be generally geared towards plausible agricultural uses, but resolution does not need to critique articles on specific plants for the plausibility of their proposed uses; the judgement of the person resolving it determines whether a given existing database fits the criteria.", "post_id": 25719, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749437163.224663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.283 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749437163.224663, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.283 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27540206394500766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.269773848660403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287574.374223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287574.374223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8710891903248517, 0.12891080967514837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are ~300,000 land plant species, of which only a couple hundred are currently used in agriculture. A source of information about genomic and phenomic information from a broader set of species might lead to new agricultural uses to improve the food supply resilience, mitigate climate-related stressors, and increase productivity. Will such a database be built?" }, { "id": 25711, "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-july-21-2024-will-the-closing-value-of-bse-sensex-be-greater-than-75k-and-less-than-or-equal-to-76k", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:11.007993Z", "published_at": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.014749Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25711, "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 76k?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:11.007993Z", "open_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:31.343852Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-08T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the closing value of the BSE SENSEX on July 21, 2024, according to Yahoo Finance.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25711, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720334135.711402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720334135.711402, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.12 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.88, 0.12 ], "means": [ 0.24955690148252196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720337742.047839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720337742.047839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9691894903374733, 0.03081050966252679 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. As a result, in the immediate aftermath of the elections, the SENSEX has experienced significant volatility, beginning with a [drop of almost 6%](https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2024/6/5/india-election-why-modis-narrow-win-has-the-stock-market-in-a-spin) on June 4th, followed by a significant bounce on June 5th." }, { "id": 25710, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "bitcoin-extremes-will-1-bitcoin-be-worth-100000-or-more-before-sept-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.933802Z", "published_at": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.542986Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25710, "title": "Bitcoin Extremes: Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before Sept 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.933802Z", "open_time": "2024-07-06T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:09.002276Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-07T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. Since then, prices have fallen roughly in half, and as of March 10, 2020 one bitcoin is valued at approximately $7,900. \n\n***Will 1 bitcoin be worth $100,000 or more before 2025?***", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if one bitcoin is valued at $100,000 USD or greater at any time before Sept 15, 2024, according to credible press reports or a cryptocurrency exchange or trading platform. The valuation will be in nominal USD, not adjusted for inflation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25710, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720302908.819823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720302908.819823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5720896187046329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720302908.848407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720302908.848407, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44363254758973236, 0.5563674524102676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Bitcoin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bitcoin) is a [cryptocurrency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cryptocurrency). It is a decentralized digital currency without a central bank or single administrator that can be sent from user to user on the peer-to-peer bitcoin network without the need for intermediaries.\n\nThe price of bitcoins has gone through cycles of appreciation and depreciation referred to by some as bubbles and busts. In 2011, the value of one bitcoin rapidly rose from about $0.30 to $32 before returning to $2. In the latter half of 2012 and during the 2012–13 Cypriot financial crisis, the bitcoin price began to rise again, reaching a high of $266 on 10 April 2013, before crashing to around $50. On 29 November 2013, the cost of one bitcoin rose to a peak of $1,242. In 2014, the price fell sharply, and as of April remained depressed at little more than half 2013 prices. As of August 2014 it was under $600.\n\nBitcoin prices reached their apogee in December 2017, at just shy of $20,000 per coin. 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The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. 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Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 25703, "title": "On Sept 15, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-sept-15-2024-will-nvidias-market-capitalization-be-larger-than-apples", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.133102Z", "published_at": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.784706Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25703, "title": "On Sept 15, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.133102Z", "open_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:48:49.428070Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-30T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if, on Sept 15, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to Companies Market Cap, when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 25703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719700182.56027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719700182.56027, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4700320574394116 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.556667905035692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719700182.603803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719700182.603803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7156774996629174, 0.2843225003370826 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25702, "title": "Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue arrest warrants for any of the listed Israeli leaders?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-sept-30-2024-will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-arrest-warrants-for-any-of-the-listed-israeli-leaders", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:10.054593Z", "published_at": 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"2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:07.818657Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-29T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for any of the below listed Israeli cabinet members. It will resolve as No otherwise.\n\nBenjamin Netanyahu (Prime Minister)\nYoav Gallant (Defense Minister)\nHerzi Halevi (IDF Chief of Staff)", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 25702, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719592114.385294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719592114.385294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5813820830615831 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 2.75759160796734, "peer_score": -1.2876299638848585, "coverage": 0.9930558093057739, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9930558093057739, "spot_peer_score": -5.5732149297921945, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": 2.75759160796734, "peer_archived_score": -1.2876299638848585, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -5.5732149297921945, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719592114.414398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719592114.414398, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5482602491090087, 0.4517397508909913 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 25701, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-publish-information-describing-q-q-star-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.977173Z", "published_at": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.421356Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25701, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.977173Z", "open_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:49.027895Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, by Sept 30, 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.", "fine_print": "A description of Q* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q* before Sept 30, 2024 will resolve the question as Yes.\nA description does not need to contain any of the following:\nA statement that Q* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\nAn accompanying release of an AI system known as Q* or that has been trained using Q*.\nAny performance results.\nA paper describing it in detail.\nA public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as Yes when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q*, the question will resolve as Yes.\nThe system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will not be sufficient.\nA description specifically of Q* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q* would not qualify.", "post_id": 25701, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719532586.587775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719532586.587775, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.35954080989425674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719532586.654212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719532586.654212, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7671920834619086, 0.23280791653809144 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 25700, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-offer-india-a-nuclear-submarine-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.846339Z", "published_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.601254Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25700, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-27T01:15:09.846339Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T10:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T10:41:37.217919Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25700, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" } ] }
