Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2580
{ "count": 6350, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2560", "results": [ { "id": 27609, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4\"N 35°30'27.1\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-b-soldatskoe-5120154n-3530271e-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.589618Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.218638Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27609, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture B. Soldatskoe (51°20'15.4\"N 35°30'27.1\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.589618Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reports in its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls B. Soldatskoe at the coordinates 51°20'15.4\"N 35°30'27.1\"E\n\nThe longer and more detailed instructions are as follows:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste the coordinates into the search box.\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.\n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.\n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, the subquestion resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27609, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768195.658776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768195.658776, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.245 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.30585789098194616 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14103170108880173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09956885969569651, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.1599124766436696, 0.0, 0.638455000653369, 0.24311673443421403, 0.16798662710965054, 1.2280694092127387, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.571173604994265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.608715940105879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7620908974955234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07966489627546133, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768195.696818, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768195.696818, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8713139388417924, 0.1286860611582076 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant." }, { "id": 27608, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9\"N 34°38'54.9\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-glushkovo-5120439n-3438549e-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.481315Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.778601Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27608, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Glushkovo (51°20'43.9\"N 34°38'54.9\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.481315Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reports in its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls Glushkovo at the coordinates 51°20'43.9\"N 34°38'54.9\"E\n\nThe longer and more detailed instructions are as follows:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste the coordinates into the search box.\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.\n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.\n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, the subquestion resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27608, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768251.839223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.573 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768251.839223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.573 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42700000000000005, 0.573 ], "means": [ 0.5197754078427097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8760435393151871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.6958191318642392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2248728120931775, 0.42967289637252526, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.8600238516975804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.141637135227838, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.7010093570283769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.014369596090439, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -22.76920250415965, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -22.76920250415965 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768251.876406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768251.876406, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5824565413448091, 0.4175434586551909 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant." }, { "id": 27607, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7\"N 34°54'02.2\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-korenevo-5124377n-3454022e-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.367767Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.091421Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27607, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Korenevo (51°24'37.7\"N 34°54'02.2\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:12.367767Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reports in its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls Korenevo at the coordinates 51°24'37.7\"N 34°54'02.2\"E \n\nThe longer and more detailed instructions are as follows:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste the coordinates into the search box.\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.\n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.\n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, the subquestion resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27607, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768293.877476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768293.877476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4166751964239561 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.654978610980767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3888518936172315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9705406377389141, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 1.750343771036404, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920136661676322, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.3550696650578925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2222842399377303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022224809961703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768293.935346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768293.935346, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.626828256804582, 0.373171743195418 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant." }, { "id": 27606, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1\"N 34°16'57.7\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-tetkino-5116451n-3416577e-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.960932Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.043336Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27606, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Tetkino (51°16'45.1\"N 34°16'57.7\"E) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.960932Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War reports in its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls Tetkino at the coordinates 51°16'45.1\"N 34°16'57.7\"E\n\nThe longer and more detailed instructions are as follows:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste the coordinates into the search box.\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW.\n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply.\n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, the subquestion resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27606, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768323.712338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768323.712338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.44282406736043195 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5824997021639123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2026608540254553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6243949412783137, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3015863124192444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.8331016997804591, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6719045779119676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8094266714872985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 5.658352836636751, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 5.658352836636751 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768323.747403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768323.747403, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7323477666381453, 0.2676522333618548 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 21, 2024, Ukrainian forces were continuing to make advances in Russia's Kursk oblast, in an incursion that began on August 8, 2024: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2021%2C%202024_0.png\" />\n\nThe Institute for the Study of War has made the following mentions of these areas: \n\nTetkino ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyotkino)) - \n\n>Russian milbloggers claimed on August 17 that Russian forces destroyed several bridges across the Seim River in Tetkino and Popovo-Lezhachi (both southwest of Korenevo and along the international border) in order to stop Ukrainian forces advancing from the international border and that Ukrainian forces have consolidated positions in Otruba and up to the west bank of the river ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\n>A prominent Russian milblogger claimed that there are unconfirmed reports that Ukrainian forces entered Otruba (north of Tetkino and on the west [right] bank of the Seim River), and another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are operating near Tetkino.\" ([source](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-18-2024))\n\nKorenevo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korenevo,_Korenevsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Geolocated footage published on August 19 shows that Ukrainian forces have advanced westward along Sudzhanskiy Shlyakh Street (38K-030 highway) in eastern Korenevo as well as in fields northeast of Korenevo.[3] Russian milbloggers widely claimed on August 20 that Ukrainian forces continued mechanized assaults on the outskirts of Korenevo and that Russian forces were conducting artillery and airstrikes to contain Ukrainian advances.[4] Russian milbloggers indicated that Russian forces regained some lost positions and advanced in fields south of Safonovka (northeast of Koreveno and 30km from the international border). ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-20-2024))\n\nGlushkovo ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glushkovo,_Glushkovsky_District,_Kursk_Oblast)) - \n\n>Ukrainian forces appear to be continuing efforts to strike Russian pontoon bridges and pontoon engineering equipment west of the current Kursk Oblast salient over the Seim River in Glushkovo Raion—geolocated footage published on August 20 shows Ukrainian drones striking Russian equipment bringing pontoons to a staging area near the Seim River about 3km north of Glushkovo.\n\nBolshoye Soldatskoye ([wiki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bolshoye_Soldatskoye)) - According to Wikipedia:\n\n>Bolshoye Soldatskoye (Russian: Большое Солдатское) is a rural locality (a selo) and the administrative center of Bolshesoldatsky District, Kursk Oblast, Russia.\n\nKursk Nuclear Plant -\n\n>Several prominent Russian authorities, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), nuclear energy operator Rosatom, Russian diplomats, and occupation authorities claimed on August 17 that Ukrainian authorities are preparing a false-flag attack against the KNPP ([source](https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-17-2024))\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kursk_Nuclear_Power_Plant): \n\n>The International Atomic Energy Agency's Director General Rafael Grossi urged both Russia and Ukraine to exercise \"maximum restraint\" to avoid an accident at the plant during the August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion following reports of \"significant military activity\" near the facility. On 11 August 2024, it was reported that Russia had been constructing defensive trench lines near the power plant and up to 8 km away, with additional National Guard of Russia (Rosgvardiya) forces. Fighting occurred 20 miles (35 km) from the plant." }, { "id": 27605, "title": "Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-george-r-r-martins-the-winds-of-winter-be-released-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.868958Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.150712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27605, "title": "Will George R. R. Martin's “The Winds of Winter” be released before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.868958Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter) is a long time upcoming book by bestseller author [George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin). It is the sixth and planned penultimate volume of the [\"A Song of Ice and Fire\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) series, which has inspired HBO's “Game of Thrones”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if [\"The Winds of \nWinter\" by George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter) becomes available for purchase on Amazon.com before October 1, 2024. This does not include pre-orders.If the book's title is changed by the author or publisher before release, this question will still resolve based on the release date of the book under its new title, provided it remains part of the [\"A Song of Ice and Fire\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) series.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27605, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768381.919335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16666666666666669 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768381.919335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16666666666666669 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13501811272486217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.010381142261586365, 1.4913416387269969, 0.5123307444416587, 0.4194659802576458, 0.6328652459948338, 0.5599309241229171, 1.0988717875322394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3498308145863057, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.9576723250253216, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05731836786094527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768381.956651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768381.956651, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9870273802751273, 0.01297261972487274 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Winds of Winter](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Winds_of_Winter) is a long time upcoming book by bestseller author [George R. R. Martin](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/George_R._R._Martin). It is the sixth and planned penultimate volume of the [\"A Song of Ice and Fire\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Song_of_Ice_and_Fire) series, which has inspired HBO's “Game of Thrones”." }, { "id": 27604, "title": "Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-mexico-confirm-clade-i-mpox-infections-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.771699Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.422010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27604, "title": "Will Mexico confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.771699Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if Mexico has a confirmed Clade I mpox infection within its borders before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27604, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768216.777976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.259 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768216.777976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "centers": [ 0.259 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.741, 0.259 ], "means": [ 0.2535413279309942 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0701686078568375, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.3557625695707739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5511927741233639, 0.0, 0.13648872184605093, 0.7620908974955233, 1.0513059022251439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42764841585495317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8739574836057534, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 56.754544764374685, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 56.754544764374685 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768216.807191, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768216.807191, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8349162834790635, 0.16508371652093642 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)" }, { "id": 27603, "title": "Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-japan-confirm-clade-i-mpox-infections-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.673813Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.950216Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27603, "title": "Will Japan confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.673813Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if Japan has a confirmed Clade I mpox infection within its borders before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27603, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768351.438377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.385 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768351.438377, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.385 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.32068169902607996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.059941961527627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7868332148914403, 0.3303832435962876, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 1.164613078096514, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0539859365681479, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.810866544756075, 0.0, 0.3260481154903181, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 46.46682670034443, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 46.46682670034443 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768351.469427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768351.469427, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8288405143771604, 0.17115948562283953 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)" }, { "id": 27602, "title": "Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-confirm-clade-i-mpox-infections-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.477634Z", "published_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.600160Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27602, "title": "Will Russia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-23T20:36:11.477634Z", "open_time": "2024-08-26T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-27T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if Russia has a confirmed Clade I mpox infection within its borders before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27602, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768406.876132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768406.876132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.28867127116181807 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.990842859093613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.07245229244553998, 0.5159442278792621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4925174961740297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.636168375139453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724768406.922033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724768406.922033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7622286286109989, 0.23777137138900106 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)" }, { "id": 27584, "title": "Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-angola-confirm-clade-i-mpox-infections-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.545525Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.970059Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27584, "title": "Will Angola confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.545525Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if Angola has a confirmed Clade I mpox infection within its borders before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27584, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509001.366135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509001.366135, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5227764054488684 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1141675377263316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.7011481605455624, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5333530803805389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3432157148853774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 1.1654561440909108, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509001.399238, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509001.399238, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5523849806348539, 0.44761501936514614 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)" }, { "id": 27583, "title": "Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-zambia-confirm-clade-i-mpox-infections-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.444483Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.157266Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27583, "title": "Will Zambia confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.444483Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if Zambia has a confirmed Clade I mpox infection within its borders before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27583, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724508971.437891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724508971.437891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5180702793567771 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.326975962872244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.5050297122483125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6414679702821111, 0.12637014538023153, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7638022195057989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.684303944829752, 0.0, 0.2217981979222502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9230511556840606, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724508971.469399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724508971.469399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5520906292453771, 0.44790937075462284 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)" }, { "id": 27582, "title": "Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-confirm-clade-i-mpox-infections-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.341303Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.970086Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27582, "title": "Will the US confirm Clade I mpox infections before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.341303Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the US has a confirmed Clade I mpox infection within its borders before October 1, 2024, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27582, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509188.413633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.315 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509188.413633, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.315 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4475331980731945 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6877405853529432, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9198367298836694, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0334028484872713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5889048838899589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1050609071575204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.13400878757166132, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509188.447967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509188.447967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7212930401885095, 0.2787069598114905 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, the WHO [declared mpox a public health emergency of international concern](https://www.who.int/news/item/14-08-2024-who-director-general-declares-mpox-outbreak-a-public-health-emergency-of-international-concern).\n\n> In declaring the PHEIC, Dr Tedros said, \"The emergence of a new clade of mpox, its rapid spread in eastern DRC, and the reporting of cases in several neighbouring countries are very worrying. On top of outbreaks of other mpox clades in DRC and other countries in Africa, it’s clear that a coordinated international response is needed to stop these outbreaks and save lives.”\n\n...\n\n> The emergence last year and rapid spread of a new virus strain in DRC, clade 1b, which appears to be spreading mainly through sexual networks, and its detection in countries neighbouring the DRC is especially concerning, and one of the main reasons for the declaration of the PHEIC.\n\n> In the past month, over 100 laboratory-confirmed cases of clade 1b have been reported in four countries neighbouring the DRC that have not reported mpox before: Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda and Uganda. Experts believe the true number of cases to be higher as a large proportion of clinically compatible cases have not been tested.\n\n> Several outbreaks of different clades of mpox have occurred in different countries, with different modes of transmission and different levels of risk.\n\n[According to the UK Health Security Agency](https://www.gov.uk/guidance/clade-1-mpox-virus-infection), \"Historically, Clade I MPXV has been reported only in 5 Central African countries.\"\n\nOn August 15, 2024, Swedish health officials [confirmed a case of mpox clade I](https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/the-public-health-agency-of-sweden/communicable-disease-control/disease-information-about-mpox/one-case-of-mpox-clade-i-reported-in-sweden/). \n\n> [\"This is the first clade I mpox case to be reported outside of the African continent,\" CDC spokesman David Daigle said in a statement, noting that the agency is watching the outbreak closely.](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/who-confirms-first-case-new-mpox-strain-outside-africa-outbreak-spreads-2024-08-15/)" }, { "id": 27581, "title": "Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-greg-brockman-return-to-openai-following-his-leave-of-absence-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.196741Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.917582Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27581, "title": "Will Greg Brockman return to OpenAI following his leave of absence before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:52:13.196741Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**\n> \n> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.\n> \n> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company.<br/>\n> ...\n> \n> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.\n> \n> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.\n> \n> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.\n> \n> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.”<br/>\n> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Greg Brockman returns to work at OpenAI following his leave of absence and before October 1, 2024, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). This question resolves as **No** if, following his leave of absence, Brockman exits OpenAI without returning, or does not return by October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27581, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509128.385089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509128.385089, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.375 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.625, 0.375 ], "means": [ 0.34929031643757635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0554902483999618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4523746963151931, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.20887796465700578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 1.093693609107493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6940731237543156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 32.19280948873624, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 32.19280948873624 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509128.417739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509128.417739, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8617565542359611, 0.13824344576403896 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**\n> \n> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.\n> \n> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company.<br/>\n> ...\n> \n> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.\n> \n> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.\n> \n> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.\n> \n> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.”<br/>\n> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)" }, { "id": 27576, "title": "Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-two-countries-out-of-the-us-uk-germany-canada-france-or-australia-curtail-diplomatic-ties-with-israel-before-2025-citing-israels-military-actions-in-gaza", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:40:27.679450Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.351817Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27576, "title": "Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?", "created_at": "2024-08-22T20:40:27.679450Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*\n\n---\n\nSince its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign\\_relations\\_of\\_Israel), though is still not universally recognized due to the longstanding [conflict between Israel and a number of the Arab countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli\\_conflict). In particular, the [United States has been a close ally of Israel](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23916266/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid), with the US having provided [at least $158 billion](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf) in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding since Israel was established.\n\nIn the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel — which saw [nearly 1,200 people killed](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas\\#chapter-title-0-8) and [over 250 taken hostage](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011) — many friendly countries [expressed support for Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_reactions\\_to\\_the\\_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas\\_war). However, Israel’s responding military campaign against Hamas in Gaza led a [number of countries to sever relations](https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-war-countries-against-cease-fire-diplomats) due to the humanitarian situation, which has seen nearly [40,000 Palestinians killed](https://www.ochaopt.org/) as of August 2024 according to the Gaza Ministry of Health (though this number is disputed by Israel), and close to two million Gazans displaced. The US, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Canada have supplied Israel with weapons since the beginning of the war, though Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands [halted arms sales to Israel in early 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/who-are-israels-main-weapons-suppliers-who-has-halted-exports-2024-05-09/).\n\nBut as the war approaches one year of duration and Israel has [expanded into other regions in Gaza](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4660135-israel-moves-deeper-into-rafah/), the international mood may be shifting against Israel. In March of 2024, the US abstained on a [UN Security Council Resolution demanding a ceasefire](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/israel-gaza-us-abstention-on-un-cease-fire-vote-triggers-netanyahu-rage.html), allowing it to pass against the wishes of Israel. And in May 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) [sought arrest warrants](https://www.newsweek.com/israel-losing-diplomatic-war-palestine-united-nations-europe-1904064) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, a number of countries have now granted diplomatic recognition to Palestine in response to the conflict. These actions have [caused some to argue](https://time.com/6963032/israel-netanyahu-allies-global-standing/) that the world is turning against Israel over its operation in Gaza.\n\nThe countries of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, and Australia make up a subset of the [G20](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20), and are among the ten member states of the G20 that [do not recognize Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_recognition\\_of\\_the\\_State\\_of\\_Palestine\\#:\\~:text=while%20ten%20countries%20(Australia%2C%20Canada%2C%20France%2C%20Germany%2C%20Italy%2C%20Japan%2C%20Mexico%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20the%20United%20Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States)%20have%20not).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, at least two of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia takes any of the following actions relating to their relations with Israel, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza as a contributing factor:\n\n* Recalls its ambassador from Israel, publicly announcing that the recall is in protest of Israel's actions in Gaza \n* Downgrades its diplomatic relations with Israel, which is defined as reducing its chief of mission in the country to below the level of ambassador, referred to as a chargé d'affaires. \n* Severs diplomatic relations with Israel, which is defined as withdrawing its diplomatic staff from the country. \n* Formally announces that it recognizes the state of Palestine.\n\nAdditionally if the United States takes any one of the following actions before October 1, 2024, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza as a contributing factor, that will count for the United States as well (so if the United States takes one action listed below, and a different country takes one of the actions above, the question will resolve as **Yes**):\n\n* Votes in favor (not simply abstaining) of a UN Security Council or UN General Assembly resolution that makes a demand or request of Israel relating to the Israeli campaign in Gaza (and any related humanitarian situations). \n* Moves the US embassy in Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv (or another location in Israel). \n* Explicitly and unambiguously states that it has implemented an arms embargo on Israel. \n * The statement must clearly say that an arms embargo is the official policy of the United States toward Israel, and not merely threaten a future arms embargo or cut off only some portion of weaponry. The embargo must cut off both weapons sales and bilateral military aid. \n \n\nIf the criteria above have not been met before October 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724508942.091834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724508942.091834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.25828959545241353 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.7184108905968019, 0.0, 0.12594586343757333, 0.06460822876323534, 0.8277762550959286, 0.1687033331669892, 0.07755734487342231, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 1.0266067622447257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.8594494608625275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724508942.124009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724508942.124009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9029211752663242, 0.09707882473367574 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*\n\n---\n\nSince its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign\\_relations\\_of\\_Israel), though is still not universally recognized due to the longstanding [conflict between Israel and a number of the Arab countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli\\_conflict). In particular, the [United States has been a close ally of Israel](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23916266/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid), with the US having provided [at least $158 billion](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf) in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding since Israel was established.\n\nIn the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel — which saw [nearly 1,200 people killed](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas\\#chapter-title-0-8) and [over 250 taken hostage](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011) — many friendly countries [expressed support for Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_reactions\\_to\\_the\\_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas\\_war). However, Israel’s responding military campaign against Hamas in Gaza led a [number of countries to sever relations](https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-war-countries-against-cease-fire-diplomats) due to the humanitarian situation, which has seen nearly [40,000 Palestinians killed](https://www.ochaopt.org/) as of August 2024 according to the Gaza Ministry of Health (though this number is disputed by Israel), and close to two million Gazans displaced. The US, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Canada have supplied Israel with weapons since the beginning of the war, though Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands [halted arms sales to Israel in early 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/who-are-israels-main-weapons-suppliers-who-has-halted-exports-2024-05-09/).\n\nBut as the war approaches one year of duration and Israel has [expanded into other regions in Gaza](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4660135-israel-moves-deeper-into-rafah/), the international mood may be shifting against Israel. In March of 2024, the US abstained on a [UN Security Council Resolution demanding a ceasefire](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/israel-gaza-us-abstention-on-un-cease-fire-vote-triggers-netanyahu-rage.html), allowing it to pass against the wishes of Israel. And in May 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) [sought arrest warrants](https://www.newsweek.com/israel-losing-diplomatic-war-palestine-united-nations-europe-1904064) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, a number of countries have now granted diplomatic recognition to Palestine in response to the conflict. These actions have [caused some to argue](https://time.com/6963032/israel-netanyahu-allies-global-standing/) that the world is turning against Israel over its operation in Gaza.\n\nThe countries of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, and Australia make up a subset of the [G20](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20), and are among the ten member states of the G20 that [do not recognize Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_recognition\\_of\\_the\\_State\\_of\\_Palestine\\#:\\~:text=while%20ten%20countries%20(Australia%2C%20Canada%2C%20France%2C%20Germany%2C%20Italy%2C%20Japan%2C%20Mexico%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20the%20United%20Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States)%20have%20not)." }, { "id": 27548, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"High\" before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdcs-assessment-of-the-risk-posed-by-mpox-to-the-us-general-public-exceed-high-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:42.064638Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.310149Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27548, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"High\" before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:42.064638Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the risk to the general population of the United States assessed by the CDC in a [Mpox Rapid Risk Assessment](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_2-risk-assessment-for-general-population-in-the-united-states) or similar document, exceeds \"High\" between August 15, 2024 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive).", "fine_print": "The question resolves as the overall risk. The highest overall risk level is \"Very High.\" The lowest possible overall risk level is \"Very Low.\" The question resolves based on the highest overall risk level, not the sub-categories (likelihood, impact). CDC's level of confidence is irrelevant; if CDC assesses \"Very High\" risk with low confidence, the question resolves as \"Very High.\"\n\nThe question will not resolve based on statements from CDC officials. A written document is necessary.", "post_id": 27548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509069.843353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509069.843353, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.077 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.2033874638556728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.01885548841701457, 0.5096028727757971, 0.3314736125086992, 0.5775537481916617, 0.26077713707599026, 0.49919970777631545, 0.07755734487342231, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 2.7104798579225746, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509069.873111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509069.873111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.978395360673873, 0.021604639326126957 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources." }, { "id": 27547, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"Moderate\" before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdcs-assessment-of-the-risk-posed-by-mpox-to-the-us-general-public-exceed-moderate-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:41.884899Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.741761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27547, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"Moderate\" before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:41.884899Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the risk to the general population of the United States assessed by the CDC in a [Mpox Rapid Risk Assessment](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_2-risk-assessment-for-general-population-in-the-united-states) or similar document, exceeds \"Moderate\" between August 15, 2024 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive).", "fine_print": "The question resolves as the overall risk. The highest overall risk level is \"Very High.\" The lowest possible overall risk level is \"Very Low.\" The question resolves based on the highest overall risk level, not the sub-categories (likelihood, impact). CDC's level of confidence is irrelevant; if CDC assesses \"Very High\" risk with low confidence, the question resolves as \"Very High.\"\n\nThe question will not resolve based on statements from CDC officials. A written document is necessary.", "post_id": 27547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509035.481572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.062 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509035.481572, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.062 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.21065020561188696 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5284583611928118, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 1.326975962872244, 0.1566820326722364, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24633891502435895, 1.0462269488171476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8373245529524356, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.761419003562789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509035.519068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509035.519068, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9649205023342411, 0.035079497665758956 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources." }, { "id": 27546, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"Low\" before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdcs-assessment-of-the-risk-posed-by-mpox-to-the-us-general-public-exceed-low-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:41.611976Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.362913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27546, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"Low\" before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:41.611976Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the risk to the general population of the United States assessed by the CDC in a [Mpox Rapid Risk Assessment](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_2-risk-assessment-for-general-population-in-the-united-states) or similar document, exceeds \"Low\" between August 15, 2024 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive).", "fine_print": "The question resolves as the overall risk. The highest overall risk level is \"Very High.\" The lowest possible overall risk level is \"Very Low.\" The question resolves based on the highest overall risk level, not the sub-categories (likelihood, impact). CDC's level of confidence is irrelevant; if CDC assesses \"Very High\" risk with low confidence, the question resolves as \"Very High.\"\n\nThe question will not resolve based on statements from CDC officials. A written document is necessary.", "post_id": 27546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509160.440632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509160.440632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18848394150003683 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.9438376849703078, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.6827828764765234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.04710224358329484, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 1.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 2.358585898957497, 0.18526809390665838, 0.0, 0.435508827352813, 0.2748574657272404, 0.818092081169508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.09550609340386881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509160.472348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509160.472348, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9635477810217488, 0.036452218978251225 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources." }, { "id": 27545, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"Very Low\" before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdcs-assessment-of-the-risk-posed-by-mpox-to-the-us-general-public-exceed-very-low-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:41.200200Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.680702Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T17:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T17:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27545, "title": "Will the CDC's assessment of the risk posed by mpox to the US general public exceed \"Very Low\" before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T14:00:41.200200Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T17:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T17:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-12T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the risk to the general population of the United States assessed by the CDC in a [Mpox Rapid Risk Assessment](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_2-risk-assessment-for-general-population-in-the-united-states) or similar document, exceeds \"Very Low\" between August 15, 2024 and September 30, 2024 (inclusive).", "fine_print": "The question resolves as the overall risk. The highest overall risk level is \"Very High.\" The lowest possible overall risk level is \"Very Low.\" The question resolves based on the highest overall risk level, not the sub-categories (likelihood, impact). CDC's level of confidence is irrelevant; if CDC assesses \"Very High\" risk with low confidence, the question resolves as \"Very High.\"\n\nThe question will not resolve based on statements from CDC officials. A written document is necessary.", "post_id": 27545, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509102.228485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509102.228485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.205304235116738 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.2184360075254426, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.020706884286877357, 1.1688020778946697, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.469023017773915, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 0.9227388757853524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.22395086513830598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09550609340386881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4356884894911544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -183.65012677171205, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -183.65012677171205 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724509102.260095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724509102.260095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9590552378686986, 0.0409447621313014 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In evolving situations, experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) sometimes make [qualitative judgements about the overall risk to the general public of the United States](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html). CDC's overall qualitative assessments take into account both the likelihood and impact of infections, ranging from \"Extremely Low\" to \"Very High.\"\n\nAs of CDC's [most recent qualitative analysis](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/data-research/mpox-risk-assessment/?CDC_AAref_Val=https://www.cdc.gov/forecast-outbreak-analytics/about/mpox-risk-assessment.html#cdc_data_surveillance_section_6-methods), dated July 8, 2024:\n\n> The risk to the general population is assessed as VERY LOW.\n\nCDC notes that \"In response to the recent spread of clade I mpox in Sub-Saharan Africa, CDC is working to update our July 8, 2024, risk assessment.\"\n\nHere are the [specific definitions](https://www.cdc.gov/cfa-qualitative-assessments/php/about/risk-assessment-methods.html) used by CDC to arrive at an overall risk level. These are provided for reference. However, CDC may change these definitions, and if so, the question still resolves as the highest risk level assessed among the options provided.\n\n># Definitions\n\n> ## Likelihood of infection definitions\n\n> * **Extremely low:** An extremely small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect an extremely low prevalence of infection in the population, far less than 1% of the population.\n\n> * **Very low:** A very small number of people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen is not very infectious, or the population is highly immune. We expect a very low prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **Low:** There are limited opportunities for exposure for most of the population, but exposure may be high in some areas or subgroups. The pathogen has at least moderate infectiousness or significant gaps in population immunity. We expect a low prevalence of infection in the population, potentially with pockets of higher prevalence.\n\n> * **Moderate:** Many people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has moderate to high infectiousness, or the population has low levels of immunity. We expect a moderate prevalence of infection in the population.\n\n> * **High:** Most people are likely to be exposed, the pathogen has high infectiousness, or the population has very low immunity. We expect a high prevalence of infection in the population, with most of the population affected.\n\n> * **Very high:** The vast majority of the population is likely to be exposed, the pathogen has very high infectiousness, or the population has extremely low immunity. We expect a very high prevalence of infection in the population, with the vast majority of the population affected.\n\n> ## Impact of infection definitions\n\n> * **Very low:** The pathogen is very unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is very unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Low:** The pathogen is unlikely to cause severe disease for this population, there is a very high proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are widely available. The disease is unlikely to cause disruption to normal activities or require additional resources for public health measures.\n\n> * **Moderate:** The pathogen causes severe disease for a substantial proportion of this population or pockets within this population, there is limited population immunity protecting people from severe disease, and/or effective treatments are not widely available or accessible. The disease may cause significant disruption to the population and require significant public health resources.\n\n> * **High:** The pathogen typically causes severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or effective treatments are very limited or difficult to access. The disease could cause extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a large amount of public health resources.\n\n> * **Very high:** The pathogen typically causes very severe disease for this population, there is a very low proportion of population immunity protecting against severe disease, and/or there are no effective treatments. The disease could cause prolonged and extensive disruption to normal activities and will potentially require a very high level of public health resources." }, { "id": 27539, "title": "Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-non-test-nuclear-weapon-be-detonated-by-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:52:43.708132Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.065394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27539, "title": "Will a non-test nuclear weapon be detonated by October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:52:43.708132Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T00:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "", "resolution_criteria": "Weapons in which the energy is provided by nuclear fission or fusion have only twice in history been detonated outside of a controlled test environment, in the Hiroshima and Nagasaki events in World War II.\n\nSince then, the world has nearly gone to nuclear war as a result of international conflict (during the Cuban Missile Crisis) and by accident. There have also been a number of narrowly-averted accidental nuclear detonations. See [this timeline](http://futureoflife.org/background/nuclear-close-calls-a-timeline/) for a sobering look at how close we have come.\n\nThis question (which any sane person will hope resolves negatively) regards the probability that a nuclear detonation will occur by Oct 1, 2024, outside of controlled tests. This could include:\n\n- Deliberate or nuclear attack.\n\n- Accidental nuclear attack (launched by accident or on the basis of erroneous information.)\n\n- Accidental detonation of a weapon.\n\n- Nuclear terrorism.\n\nFor these purposes we do not consider a radiological weapon — where any fission/fusion energy is energetically sub-dominant to chemical or other explosives — to be a nuclear attack.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27539, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423287.74213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423287.74213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97975, 0.02025 ], "means": [ 0.049336930232688106 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.09103147284413943, 4.612796583490289, 0.4212401270234661, 1.5166913227538144, 0.0, 1.6142453318510013, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 97.04855729401226, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.04855729401226 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423287.767783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423287.767783, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.995687404765466, 0.004312595234533969 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "" }, { "id": 27538, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-detonate-a-nuclear-weapon-in-ukraine-or-ukrainian-held-territory-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:52:43.605148Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.467020Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27538, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:52:43.605148Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T00:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before October 1, 2024. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorized](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will be defined as the [internationally-recognized boundaries prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including Ukraine's 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). Ukrainian-held territory will include any territory (including in Russia) occupied by Ukrainian troops according to the Institute for the Study of War at [this link](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").\n\nExternal territory occupied by Ukrainian troops includes any category marked by ISW as occupied by Ukrainian forces, including but not limited to: claimed, assessed, and reported.", "post_id": 27538, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724422776.075331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724422776.075331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.10373296950019179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0541425161069094, 0.6356799761664509, 0.013162951709963655, 1.633530610153841, 0.037065342746035734, 2.458908881261116, 0.0, 1.1081764314461289, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 1.2097678064601065, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6140553878625336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2427133491180542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1139046300324962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724422776.111838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724422776.111838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9779654114976976, 0.022034588502302405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)" }, { "id": 27524, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-withdraw-from-kursk-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.506011Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.073712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27524, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.506011Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast according to either [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) at any point before October 1, 2024. This question will resolve negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.\n\nIf either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.", "post_id": 27524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336147.710194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336147.710194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4201441636141124 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2370902951532945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5907161517193226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3380508809928928, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.4268241392932959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1425264508242785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7117781198916961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7010093570283769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 1.4671333950582883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05483270922417936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336147.743696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336147.743696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7409597740477931, 0.2590402259522069 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain." } ] }
