Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2580
{ "count": 5967, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2600", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2560", "results": [ { "id": 25669, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on July 2, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-july-2-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:58:36.860915Z", "published_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.211884Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25669, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on July 2, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:58:36.860915Z", "open_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:47:03.426785Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-27T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for July 2, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on July 2, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25669, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" }, { "id": 25658, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for July 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-real-time-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-increase-year-over-year-for-july-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-25T12:53:20.676585Z", "published_at": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.091345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25658, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for July 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-25T12:53:20.676585Z", "open_time": "2024-06-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:49:26.302995Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-26T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME. The reported number in 2024 must be greater than the reported 2023 number.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25658, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise." }, { "id": 25655, "title": "Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?", "short_title": "Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?", "url_title": "Will cancer mortality ↓ by 50% by 2051?", "slug": "will-cancer-mortality-by-50-by-2051", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-25T01:06:47.238385Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.116943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25655, "title": "Will age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US go down 50% or more before 2051?", "created_at": "2024-06-25T01:06:47.238385Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to statistics gathered from the [American Cancer Society](https://www.cancer.org/research/acs-research-news/facts-and-figures-2022.html) (ACS), cancer death rates fell 32% from their peak in the 28-year period from 1991 to 2019. According to the [CDC's data](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm) in the past decade, age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US decreased from 173.5 in 2009 to 155.8 in 2016, and then decreased at a faster rate to 146.2 in 2019 for a total decrease of 16% in 10 years.\n\nThe ACS attributes the reduction in cancer deaths to such factors as decreased smoking, improved chemotherapy and other treatments, and more success with early screening of some cancers such as breast, prostate and colon cancers.\n\nFor cancer death rates to continue (or accelerate) their decline to 50% below today's levels before 2051, it will likely require multiple research breakthroughs in treatment and prevention. For example, there are potentials for advanced immunotherapies such as [allogenic CAR T-cell therapy](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316), in which a patient's own immune cells are modified to fight cancer. While current versions have limitations, researchers are working on [off-the-shelf](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663) versions that could become a lot less expensive for the medical system.\n\nOther potential game changers are inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy (see Metaculus question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/)) [cancer vaccines](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43018-022-00418-6), and [precision medicine](https://www.cancer.org/cancer/managing-cancer/treatment-types/precision-medicine.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at any point before January 1, 2051, the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics [Cancer Deaths website](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm) reports that the age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 population in the United States is less than or equal to 73.1, when accessed by Metaculus Admins. \n\nIf this number does not fall to this level or below before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "As of June 24, 2024, the most recent numbers shown at the resolution source was 146.2 per 100,000 in 2019, at the archived link [here](https://web.archive.org/web/20240622223541/https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm). Therefore, a reduction of 50% is 73.1 per 100,000. \n\nIf this question has not resolved as Yes before January 1, 2051, then Admins on January 1, 2051 will resolve this question based on the most recent data available at the resolution source (which would be No if the number is above 73.1 per 100,000). If the most recent year shown is a year occurring before 2050 (such as 2046 or 2047), this question will still resolve based on whatever that most-recent number is. \n\nAlthough a specific webpage is mentioned in the main resolution criteria, if this data is reported by a different government agency in future years, this question will resolve based on whichever agency is responsible for reporting this information at the time. \n\nAs explained [here](https://www.cdc.gov/united-states-cancer-statistics/technical-notes/incidence-death-rates.html#cdc_research_or_data_summary_res_data-crude-rates-and-age-adjusted-rates), the CDC does age adjusting as follows:\n\n>The age distribution of a population (the number of people in particular age groups) can change over time and can be different in different geographic areas. Age-adjusting the rates ensures that differences in incidence or deaths from one year to another, or between one geographic area and another, are not due to differences in the age distribution of the populations being compared.\n\nThis question assumes that this methodology continues. If this methodology ever changes so substantially that Metaculus Admins deem it inappropriate to continue as a resolution source for this question, then this question may be annulled.\n\nThis question may also be annulled if the CDC or any other US government agency ceases to publish this official data, and Admins deem that no comparable successor can be found.", "post_id": 25655, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746233274.823486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746233274.823486, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.5478219748397517 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3870418077810194, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337156834996016, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 1.017876498136525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09635747331934613, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.03808445092208783, 0.8153249963609456 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286877.948122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286877.948122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5750358448676064, 0.4249641551323936 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to statistics gathered from the [American Cancer Society](https://www.cancer.org/research/acs-research-news/facts-and-figures-2022.html) (ACS), cancer death rates fell 32% from their peak in the 28-year period from 1991 to 2019. According to the [CDC's data](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/topics/cancer-deaths.htm) in the past decade, age-adjusted cancer deaths per 100,000 people in the US decreased from 173.5 in 2009 to 155.8 in 2016, and then decreased at a faster rate to 146.2 in 2019 for a total decrease of 16% in 10 years.\n\nThe ACS attributes the reduction in cancer deaths to such factors as decreased smoking, improved chemotherapy and other treatments, and more success with early screening of some cancers such as breast, prostate and colon cancers.\n\nFor cancer death rates to continue (or accelerate) their decline to 50% below today's levels before 2051, it will likely require multiple research breakthroughs in treatment and prevention. For example, there are potentials for advanced immunotherapies such as [allogenic CAR T-cell therapy](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316), in which a patient's own immune cells are modified to fight cancer. While current versions have limitations, researchers are working on [off-the-shelf](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663) versions that could become a lot less expensive for the medical system.\n\nOther potential game changers are inorganic nanoparticle-enabled cancer therapy (see Metaculus question [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7981/nanoparticle-cancer-therapy-approved-by-2031/)) [cancer vaccines](https://www.nature.com/articles/s43018-022-00418-6), and [precision medicine](https://www.cancer.org/cancer/managing-cancer/treatment-types/precision-medicine.html)." }, { "id": 25636, "title": "Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?", "short_title": "Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035?", "url_title": "Allogeneic cell therapy FDA approved by 2035?", "slug": "allogeneic-cell-therapy-fda-approved-by-2035", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 109999, "username": "Robert_de_Neufville" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-24T03:47:13.617714Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.702868Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", 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"score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25636, "title": "Will a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform receive FDA approval before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-06-24T03:47:13.617714Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Universal allogenic cell therapies have the potential to be a real game changer in the struggle to reduce cancer mortality rates. According to [Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316) published by Annual Reviews: \n\n>Autologous chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy, produced from the patient's own T cells, has changed the treatment landscape for hematologic malignancies but has some drawbacks that prevent large-scale clinical application, including logistical complexities in supply, patient T cell health, treatment delays, and limited manufacturing slots. Allogeneic, or off-the-shelf, CAR T cell therapies have the potential to overcome many of the limitations of autologous therapies, with the aim of bringing benefit to all patients eligible for treatment. \n\nSince 2017, there have been 6 FDA-approved CAR-T therapies, and according to [Drug Discover Trends](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/), they have been \"life-altering,\" for example with hemophilia B:\n\n>For instance, Hemgenix, indicated for hemophilia B, reduces bleeding substantially and eliminates the need for ongoing therapy in most patients. Three years following treatment, 94% of patients did not need continuous prophylactic treatment, which involves regular infusions of clotting factor concentrates.\n\nUnfortunately, however, these treatments come with a high price tag: an [average cost](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/) of over $400,000 per infusion. So there are significant challenges that will need to be overcome.\n\nAccording to the article [CAR-T: What Is Next?](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663), to address this issue of access, but also to expand the types of cancers the therapy can target, the industry is moving toward developing \"off-the-shelf\" therapies: \n\n>Compared to autologous CAR-T cells, off-the-shelf CARs have numerous potential benefits. Firstly, healthy donors can be selected and used as a source of immune cells to generate them. This could lead to a better performance of CAR-T cells since the immune cells from healthy donors have not been impacted by cancer effects or by exposure to chemotherapeutic agents. Some clinical and preclinical research has shown that the efficacy of CAR therapy is affected by the quality and quantity of T cells retrieved from patients [66]. Furthermore, patients who have received chemotherapy before the infusion are more likely to have poor-quality T cells, as well as an insufficient numbers of them, than those who have not, and this could be related to poor CAR-T-cell activity and failing to harvest enough cells for CAR-T manufacturing [67]. Secondly, unlike the time-consuming process of producing personalized autologous CAR-T cells, large numbers of allogeneic CAR-T cells can be generated from a single donor, producing batches of preserved CAR-T products that can provide patients with immediate access to treatment.\n\nThis has significant potential to expand this revolutionary therapy so that it can start addressing solid tumors, which is a massive opportunity since 90% of cancers involve solid tumors. However, there are significant obstacles to overcome before getting to FDA approval. As the Annual Reviews article puts it:\n\n>While the potential benefits of off-the-shelf CAR T cell products are clear, some notable obstacles have to be overcome to make allogeneic cell therapy a reality for patients. Specifically, infusing CAR T cells produced from an unmatched donor could lead to graft versus host disease (GvHD), a potentially life-threatening condition (Sung & Chao 2013). Conversely, the host immune system can recognize the graft as foreign, triggering rejection and limiting the therapeutic effect.\n\nReferences\n\nChen, Y.-J.; Abila, B.; Mostafa Kamel, Y. CAR-T: What Is Next? Cancers 2023, 15, 663. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers15030663\n\nJohnson Sasu, B.; Lauron, E. J.; Schulz, T.; Cheng, H.-Y.; Sommer, C. Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer. Annu. Rev. Cancer Biol. 2024, 8, 227-243. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a universal allogeneic cell therapy platform for the treatment of cancer.\n\nIn order to count, the platform must be allogeneic, meaning it uses donor cells rather than patient-derived cells, and it must be off-the-shelf, meaning cell therapy products can be manufactured in batches rather than one product for each patient. The platform must also be universal, which means the allogeneic cell therapy is engineered to avoid immune rejection.\n\nIf this FDA approval does not occur before January 1, 2035, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Treatment of cancer\" means approved for use in any cancer indication.\n\nOnly full FDA approval will count. More limited approvals such as [expanded access](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/public-health-focus/expanded-access) (also known as \"compassionate use\") will not count.", "post_id": 25636, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753504409.757064, "end_time": 1782293249.309636, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753504409.757064, "end_time": 1782293249.309636, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.38025650051119353 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8431287456062874, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289378.6906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289378.6906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6551989528203945, 0.34480104717960547 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Universal allogenic cell therapies have the potential to be a real game changer in the struggle to reduce cancer mortality rates. According to [Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer](https://www.annualreviews.org/content/journals/10.1146/annurev-cancerbio-062822-023316) published by Annual Reviews: \n\n>Autologous chimeric antigen receptor (CAR) T cell therapy, produced from the patient's own T cells, has changed the treatment landscape for hematologic malignancies but has some drawbacks that prevent large-scale clinical application, including logistical complexities in supply, patient T cell health, treatment delays, and limited manufacturing slots. Allogeneic, or off-the-shelf, CAR T cell therapies have the potential to overcome many of the limitations of autologous therapies, with the aim of bringing benefit to all patients eligible for treatment. \n\nSince 2017, there have been 6 FDA-approved CAR-T therapies, and according to [Drug Discover Trends](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/), they have been \"life-altering,\" for example with hemophilia B:\n\n>For instance, Hemgenix, indicated for hemophilia B, reduces bleeding substantially and eliminates the need for ongoing therapy in most patients. Three years following treatment, 94% of patients did not need continuous prophylactic treatment, which involves regular infusions of clotting factor concentrates.\n\nUnfortunately, however, these treatments come with a high price tag: an [average cost](https://www.drugdiscoverytrends.com/how-price-safety-and-efficacy-shape-the-cell-and-gene-therapy-landscape/) of over $400,000 per infusion. So there are significant challenges that will need to be overcome.\n\nAccording to the article [CAR-T: What Is Next?](https://www.mdpi.com/2072-6694/15/3/663), to address this issue of access, but also to expand the types of cancers the therapy can target, the industry is moving toward developing \"off-the-shelf\" therapies: \n\n>Compared to autologous CAR-T cells, off-the-shelf CARs have numerous potential benefits. Firstly, healthy donors can be selected and used as a source of immune cells to generate them. This could lead to a better performance of CAR-T cells since the immune cells from healthy donors have not been impacted by cancer effects or by exposure to chemotherapeutic agents. Some clinical and preclinical research has shown that the efficacy of CAR therapy is affected by the quality and quantity of T cells retrieved from patients [66]. Furthermore, patients who have received chemotherapy before the infusion are more likely to have poor-quality T cells, as well as an insufficient numbers of them, than those who have not, and this could be related to poor CAR-T-cell activity and failing to harvest enough cells for CAR-T manufacturing [67]. Secondly, unlike the time-consuming process of producing personalized autologous CAR-T cells, large numbers of allogeneic CAR-T cells can be generated from a single donor, producing batches of preserved CAR-T products that can provide patients with immediate access to treatment.\n\nThis has significant potential to expand this revolutionary therapy so that it can start addressing solid tumors, which is a massive opportunity since 90% of cancers involve solid tumors. However, there are significant obstacles to overcome before getting to FDA approval. As the Annual Reviews article puts it:\n\n>While the potential benefits of off-the-shelf CAR T cell products are clear, some notable obstacles have to be overcome to make allogeneic cell therapy a reality for patients. Specifically, infusing CAR T cells produced from an unmatched donor could lead to graft versus host disease (GvHD), a potentially life-threatening condition (Sung & Chao 2013). Conversely, the host immune system can recognize the graft as foreign, triggering rejection and limiting the therapeutic effect.\n\nReferences\n\nChen, Y.-J.; Abila, B.; Mostafa Kamel, Y. CAR-T: What Is Next? Cancers 2023, 15, 663. https://doi.org/10.3390/cancers15030663\n\nJohnson Sasu, B.; Lauron, E. J.; Schulz, T.; Cheng, H.-Y.; Sommer, C. Allogeneic CAR T Cell Therapy for Cancer. Annu. Rev. 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"prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25598, "title": "Will 0.5 Gt of atmospheric CO2 be removed annually using enhanced rock weathering before 2040?", "created_at": "2024-06-22T21:18:50.382475Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-06-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Through natural processes, rocks [currently absorb](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c4) about 1.1 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 per year, by reacting with CO2 in the air and converting into solid carbonates, where most of it ends up eventually being permanently stored as bicarbonate in the oceans. \n\nCurrently, humans emit about 37 Gt of CO2 from fossil fuels, according to data collected by [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions). So the amount that's naturally sequestered by rocks is only a small percentage of overall global carbon emissions, and there have been proposals for [enhanced rock weathering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_weathering) to speed up the process, with the potential for up to 2 Gt of CO2 to be removed each year, according to [one study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2448-9). \n\nOne such method of enhanced rock weathering involves crushing a mineral-rich rock such as [basalt](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/can-enhanced-rock-weathering-weather-greater-scrutiny-solution-climate-change-2023-11-01/) or [olivine](https://eioncarbon.com/) and spreading the powder into fields or other areas it can be put to efficient use, reacting with CO2 to form solid carbonates. The physics of this are similar to granulated sugar compared with sugar cubes -- with the granulated sugar dissolving faster in water do to having higher surface area compared with volume. The process works similarly with CO2-absorbing rocks, where, as the Head of Science of InPlanet, a start-up working on the issue, [puts it](https://inplanet.earth/resource/what-is-enhanced-rock-weathering/):\n\n>It is a natural process, and instead of happening over hundreds of thousands to millions of years, we speed it up to happen in less than a decade. And we do this by taking rock from the earth, crushing it, grinding it to small particle size, and then spreading it on farmland, where this process will happen much more quickly.\n\nAnother method is to use additives on rocks to speed up their chemical reactions, especially if it can be done on a large scale, at a low cost per unit. Please see the related Metaculus question, [Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25595/will-cheap-bio-additive--rock-weathering-30/)\n\nSee Also\n\n- Scientific Reports: [The environmental controls on effciency of enhanced rock weathering in soils](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36113-4)\n\n- Environmental Science and Pollution Research: [A state of the art of review on factors affecting the enhanced weathering in agricultural soil: strategies for carbon sequestration and climate mitigation](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-024-32498-5)\n\n- Biology Letters: [Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0715)\n\n- Earth's Future: [Impact of Climate on the Global Capacity for Enhanced Rock Weathering on Croplands](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003698)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2040, there are at least 0.5 gigatons (GT) of CO2 being removed from the atmosphere annually, using enhanced rock weathering processes. \n\nResolution will be based on consensus reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as peer-reviewed scientific publications, government data, industry reports, reputable international organizations, and reputable research institutions. \n\nIf Metaculus Admins determine that this amount of annual CO2 removal from enhanced rock weathering has not occurred before January 1, 2040, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Enhanced rock weathering\" is [defined](https://www.american.edu/sis/centers/carbon-removal/fact-sheet-enhanced-mineralization.cfm) as any artificial process to speed up the natural weathering of rocks, in order to accelerate natural removal of CO2 from the atmosphere. \n\nThe CO2 removal that counts must be the portion attributable to enhanced rock weathering processes, beyond the CO2 removal already done by natural weathering.\n\nIn case of 2039 data not being available from credible sources in a timely manner, resolution (currently scheduled for June 30, 2040) may wait until it is. If there is no credible reporting before January 1, 2043, that there has been at least 0.5 Gt of CO2 removed annually from the atmosphere using enhanced rock weathering before 2040, this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 25598, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750635758.798269, "end_time": 1799521778.602, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750635758.798269, "end_time": 1799521778.602, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.17812657818366479 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.7653423179917583, 1.0, 0.23920466187086184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.1945793230042818, 0.0, 0.5478273995252975, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287365.340351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287365.340351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9416903692928533, 0.05830963070714667 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Through natural processes, rocks [currently absorb](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aaa9c4) about 1.1 gigatons (Gt) of CO2 per year, by reacting with CO2 in the air and converting into solid carbonates, where most of it ends up eventually being permanently stored as bicarbonate in the oceans. \n\nCurrently, humans emit about 37 Gt of CO2 from fossil fuels, according to data collected by [Our World In Data](https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions). So the amount that's naturally sequestered by rocks is only a small percentage of overall global carbon emissions, and there have been proposals for [enhanced rock weathering](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_weathering) to speed up the process, with the potential for up to 2 Gt of CO2 to be removed each year, according to [one study](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2448-9). \n\nOne such method of enhanced rock weathering involves crushing a mineral-rich rock such as [basalt](https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/land-use-biodiversity/can-enhanced-rock-weathering-weather-greater-scrutiny-solution-climate-change-2023-11-01/) or [olivine](https://eioncarbon.com/) and spreading the powder into fields or other areas it can be put to efficient use, reacting with CO2 to form solid carbonates. The physics of this are similar to granulated sugar compared with sugar cubes -- with the granulated sugar dissolving faster in water do to having higher surface area compared with volume. The process works similarly with CO2-absorbing rocks, where, as the Head of Science of InPlanet, a start-up working on the issue, [puts it](https://inplanet.earth/resource/what-is-enhanced-rock-weathering/):\n\n>It is a natural process, and instead of happening over hundreds of thousands to millions of years, we speed it up to happen in less than a decade. And we do this by taking rock from the earth, crushing it, grinding it to small particle size, and then spreading it on farmland, where this process will happen much more quickly.\n\nAnother method is to use additives on rocks to speed up their chemical reactions, especially if it can be done on a large scale, at a low cost per unit. Please see the related Metaculus question, [Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25595/will-cheap-bio-additive--rock-weathering-30/)\n\nSee Also\n\n- Scientific Reports: [The environmental controls on effciency of enhanced rock weathering in soils](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-36113-4)\n\n- Environmental Science and Pollution Research: [A state of the art of review on factors affecting the enhanced weathering in agricultural soil: strategies for carbon sequestration and climate mitigation](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11356-024-32498-5)\n\n- Biology Letters: [Climate change mitigation: potential benefits and pitfalls of enhanced rock weathering in tropical agriculture](https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0715)\n\n- Earth's Future: [Impact of Climate on the Global Capacity for Enhanced Rock Weathering on Croplands](https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2023EF003698)" }, { "id": 25595, "title": "Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?", "short_title": "Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?", "url_title": "Cheap bio additive ↑ rock weathering 30%?", "slug": "cheap-bio-additive-rock-weathering-30", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-22T01:11:52.616755Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.124795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25595, "title": "Will a bio additive for accelerating mafic rock weathering by at least 30%, which enhances its CO2 sequestration, be available before 2030 and cost less than $20 per ton of rock?", "created_at": "2024-06-22T01:11:52.616755Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mafic or ultramafic rocks [absorb](https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2393) carbon dioxide from the air and are [considered](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4274163) one of the safest forms of long-term CO2 storage, since it converts CO2 into solid, stable minerals. \n\nThis is a long, slow process in nature (on the scale of millions of years), but accelerating this process through [enhanced rock weathering](https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/enhanced-rock-weathering) has been proposed as a potential game changer in the fight against global warming. A cheap bio additive for enhancing rock weathering would speed up the chemical reactions. If done at scale, within a few decades this could enable up to hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere each year via enhanced weathering of mafic rocks, much of which could be done on-site at quarries. From a forecasting standpoint, it is important to note that several key technological advancements are necessary to get to the point of being able to accelerate the weathering rates, especially at this low cost.\n\nSee Also\n\nChemical Geology: [Engineered carbon mineralization in ultramafic rocks for CO2 removal from air: Review and new insights](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0009254120301674)\n\nRemineralize the Earth: [Crash Course on Enhanced Rock Weathering for Carbon Removal](https://www.remineralize.org/2023/01/crash-course-on-enhanced-rock-weathering-for-carbon-removal/)\n\nNIH: [Carbon Mineralization of CO2](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK541437/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a biochemical additive to accelerate the weathering of mafic rocks is commercially available and meets the following conditions:\n\n1. Costs $20 (or less) per ton of rock, in 2024 dollars (so will be adjusted for inflation after 2024).\n2. Accelerates the weathering rate of mafic rocks by ≥ 30% compared with untreated rocks.\n\nResolution will be based on reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as scientific publications, vendor listings, news articles, trade journals, commercial announcements, etc.\n\nIf Metaculus Admins can find no such biochemical additive meeting these criteria to be available before January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially available\" means able to be purchased in sufficient quantity to treat a minimum of 1,000 tons of rock, by businesses, organizations, or persons intending to use the biochemical additive to accelerate the weathering of mafic rocks. Please note that this primarily refers to commercial or industrial purchasers not end-use consumers, although the latter would also qualify.\n\n\"Mafic rock\" is defined using the [Wikipedia definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafic) as of June 2024: \"a silicate mineral or igneous rock rich in magnesium and iron.\" \n\nThe ≥ 30% accelerated weathering rate refers to the process of carbon mineralization [described by](https://www.usgs.gov/news/featured-story/making-minerals-how-growing-rocks-can-help-reduce-carbon-emissions) the US Geological Survey, \"Carbon mineralization is the process by which carbon dioxide becomes a solid mineral, such as a carbonate. It is a chemical reaction that happens when certain rocks are exposed to carbon dioxide.\" \n\nThe cost figure of ≤ $20 per ton of rock refers solely to the purchase price of the biochemical additive, not to other expenses incurred by the purchaser.\n\nIf the cost of ≤ $20 per ton of rock is achieved through bulk pricing, that will count.\n\nIn order to avoid ambiguous outcomes, the ≥ 30% accelerated weathering rate threshold can be met in field observations or laboratory conditions, and it can be over any tested time period.\n\nPlease note that as stated in the resolution criteria, this question is specifically about biochemical additives. Therefore, petrochemicals and other chemicals derived from fossil fuels do not count.", "post_id": 25595, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749437096.663237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749437096.663237, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.09046116613588161 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.894623333614568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289563.378246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289563.378246, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9703997141994035, 0.029600285800596458 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Mafic or ultramafic rocks [absorb](https://www.earth.columbia.edu/articles/view/2393) carbon dioxide from the air and are [considered](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4274163) one of the safest forms of long-term CO2 storage, since it converts CO2 into solid, stable minerals. \n\nThis is a long, slow process in nature (on the scale of millions of years), but accelerating this process through [enhanced rock weathering](https://climate.mit.edu/explainers/enhanced-rock-weathering) has been proposed as a potential game changer in the fight against global warming. A cheap bio additive for enhancing rock weathering would speed up the chemical reactions. If done at scale, within a few decades this could enable up to hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 to be removed from the atmosphere each year via enhanced weathering of mafic rocks, much of which could be done on-site at quarries. From a forecasting standpoint, it is important to note that several key technological advancements are necessary to get to the point of being able to accelerate the weathering rates, especially at this low cost.\n\nSee Also\n\nChemical Geology: [Engineered carbon mineralization in ultramafic rocks for CO2 removal from air: Review and new insights](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0009254120301674)\n\nRemineralize the Earth: [Crash Course on Enhanced Rock Weathering for Carbon Removal](https://www.remineralize.org/2023/01/crash-course-on-enhanced-rock-weathering-for-carbon-removal/)\n\nNIH: [Carbon Mineralization of CO2](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK541437/)" }, { "id": 25586, "title": "Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?", "short_title": "2030: open-source repo for alt-protein?", "url_title": "2030: open-source repo for alt-protein?", "slug": "2030-open-source-repo-for-alt-protein", "author_id": 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theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 25586, "title": "Will there be an open-source repository of tools for alternative protein production before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-06-21T16:51:19.578423Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Alternative protein sources, that don't rely on traditional factory farming methods, are currently [projected](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) to grow by 12% annually in the period 2022-2032.\n\nWhile there are many factors that could limit even greater growth in this space, one area could be a lack of open source technology enabling rapid innovation. Compared to other scientific fields which have well-funded academic research areas, food science has relatively few open source data and tools. As a result, start-ups in the alternative protein space often have to take on both basic research and development of alternative proteins, which increases the timelines and investment needed to bring new products to market. For example, Impossible Foods, which produces a plant-based burger, [raised over $2 billion](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/impossible-foods/__BPXOmdjGDEI5Ot3ImXm-Gm9dTyu6Y48quOGr8ATLadA) since its founding in 2011. \n\nA repository dedicated to open source tools in the food space could allow companies to more rapidly develop new technologies related to alternative protein. This source could include:\n\n* biological materials for major food and ingredient sources,\n* protocols and assays relevant to desirable food flavor and textures,\n* genetic and molecular tools for protein or cell-line design.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before 2030, a free, open-source repository of gene modules, assay and molecular biology technologies, and physical materials is available and easily accessible, containing at least 100 different items related to alternative protein production.", "fine_print": "* \"At least 100 different items\" will be taken to mean at least 100 separate files or tools each providing a means for someone using the repository to independently use the file or tool to identify a gene module, complete an assay, reproduce a physical material, or complete some other molecular biology operation.\n* \"Related to alternative protein production\" will be taken to mean that the tools are intended for the purpose of creating or studying meat alternatives or meat substitutes. Generic open-source packages of tools which happen to be useful for alternative protein production will not be sufficient.", "post_id": 25586, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755948483.730638, "end_time": 1766772285.453341, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755948483.730638, "end_time": 1766772285.453341, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.46241028098522236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.360644056529686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288092.9187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288092.9187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6599239695687474, 0.34007603043125256 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Alternative protein sources, that don't rely on traditional factory farming methods, are currently [projected](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) to grow by 12% annually in the period 2022-2032.\n\nWhile there are many factors that could limit even greater growth in this space, one area could be a lack of open source technology enabling rapid innovation. Compared to other scientific fields which have well-funded academic research areas, food science has relatively few open source data and tools. As a result, start-ups in the alternative protein space often have to take on both basic research and development of alternative proteins, which increases the timelines and investment needed to bring new products to market. For example, Impossible Foods, which produces a plant-based burger, [raised over $2 billion](https://tracxn.com/d/companies/impossible-foods/__BPXOmdjGDEI5Ot3ImXm-Gm9dTyu6Y48quOGr8ATLadA) since its founding in 2011. \n\nA repository dedicated to open source tools in the food space could allow companies to more rapidly develop new technologies related to alternative protein. This source could include:\n\n* biological materials for major food and ingredient sources,\n* protocols and assays relevant to desirable food flavor and textures,\n* genetic and molecular tools for protein or cell-line design." }, { "id": 25585, "title": "Will alternative protein have a market share above 25% of that of meat before 2035?", "short_title": "2035: alternative protein market share >25%?", "url_title": "2035: alternative protein market share >25%?", "slug": "2035-alternative-protein-market-share-25", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T16:36:59.461953Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.672697Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-06-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-06-30T12:00:00Z", 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Livestock is a major driver of global warming, and the meat industry is responsible for significant animal suffering. As such, alternatives can have a lot of impact, provided they can overcome cultural, culinary, and taste-based challenges while being provided at cost-parity with traditional meat.\n\nAmong the sources included in the label \"alternative protein\" are plants, microbes, cultured cells, and insects. [Data](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) are currently not very precise, but an estimate of a $17.6 billion market volume in 2002 corresponds to 6.2% of the [worldwide meat market](https://www.researchdive.com/8583/meat-products-market)'s $284.3bn.\n\nWill this market share quadruple and surpass 25% before 2035?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the best estimate of the alternative protein market in any calendar year before 2035 is greater than 25% of that of meat in general.", "fine_print": "Resolution will follow whatever definition the available sources use for \"alternative protein\"; if precise data are available, preference should be given to a definition that includes:\n\n* any protein that is treated as meat in a culinary sense (e.g. plant-based burger patties count),\n* comes from a source other than animals obtained through traditional means like hunting, fishing and farming, and\n* does not include plant based foods that are not intended as meat substitutes (like a bowl of lentils or a salad)\n\nThe 25% market share should be measured across meat products and as a share of all or most meat production, it is not sufficient if alternative protein exceeds a 25% market share in some narrow portion of meat production, such as pork only.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the required market share has not been reached when relevant estimates referring to the year 2034 are available.", "post_id": 25585, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754941248.367027, "end_time": 1765889695.906831, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754941248.367027, "end_time": 1765889695.906831, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05049669383411866 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.3127501106801933, 1.6643861215780928, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2392546405498639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289599.998869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289599.998869, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9924021528078295, 0.007597847192170536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Livestock is a major driver of global warming, and the meat industry is responsible for significant animal suffering. As such, alternatives can have a lot of impact, provided they can overcome cultural, culinary, and taste-based challenges while being provided at cost-parity with traditional meat.\n\nAmong the sources included in the label \"alternative protein\" are plants, microbes, cultured cells, and insects. [Data](https://www.feedandadditive.com/global-alternative-proteins-market/) are currently not very precise, but an estimate of a $17.6 billion market volume in 2002 corresponds to 6.2% of the [worldwide meat market](https://www.researchdive.com/8583/meat-products-market)'s $284.3bn.\n\nWill this market share quadruple and surpass 25% before 2035?" }, { "id": 25578, "title": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?", "short_title": "2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?", "url_title": "2030: Synth protein fiber cheaper than nylon?", "slug": "2030-synth-protein-fiber-cheaper-than-nylon", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T15:04:22.015022Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.779610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25578, "title": "By 2030, will there be a synthetic protein fiber costing less than nylon?", "created_at": "2024-06-21T15:04:22.015022Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-07-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-07-01T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel. For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, there is a synthetic protein fiber available for open market purchase at a price cheaper than nylon.", "fine_print": "* The precise method used to make these fibers is not a factor in resolving the question, as long as they do not come from traditional processes like shearing sheep or polymerizing petrochemicals, and can reasonably be described as \"synthetic biology\".\n* What counts is the publicly quoted price of the respective fibers at a United States port on a free-on-board (FOB) basis. If the available source says only \"North America\" and/or does not specify the basis as FOB vs CIF, that is still acceptable.\n* For nylon, since there does not seem to be a clearly better source, the price used will be taken from anything similar to [this one](https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/pa6-price-index/); PA6 will be the specific form of nylon used as reference.\n* Prices for the synthetic fiber that can only be obtained by directly contacting the manufacturer do not count, as that goes above the 15-minute resolution work [guideline](https://www.metaculus.com/question-writing/#r-conditions); also, that is possibly subject to manipulation.\n* The price must be for an order of 10 metric tons of the respective fiber to be spun into any kind of yarn (does not mean the same kind for both fibers, as there are substitution effects).\n* Thinking in terms of efficiency - how much of the gross weight delivered to the customer they can actually use in their manufacturing - if there is a substantial difference in efficiency between nylon and the synthetic protein fiber, either the gross or net weight can be used, but it needs to be the same for both. If no mention of this is found when resolving the question, the efficiency will be assumed to be roughly the same or not meaningful in the context.\n\nFor reference, in 2022 there were 10.2 million metric tons of nylon produced globally. The source mentioned above lists a price of $2.32/kg.", "post_id": 25578, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755739500.121426, "end_time": 1765195190.329608, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755739500.121426, "end_time": 1765195190.329608, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.02673313016692595 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.5530210864100233, 0.0, 1.6782927272926602, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287291.268891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287291.268891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9851877224144219, 0.014812277585578074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are several sources used nowadays for spinning yarn to make clothes and other textile products.\n\nOne source is natural protein fibers such as cotton, wool and silk. Another is synthetic fibers; some of these are called semi-synthetic, as they are produced from plant-based cellulose, like wood pulp. Examples include rayon and viscose. Then there are fully synthetic fibers, usually made from fossil fuels by polymerization of certain petrochemicals, among which are nylon and polyester.\n\nOne emerging area of research is to use synthetic biology processes to produce protein fibers. Possible pathways include cultured cells, genetically-modified organisms and protein design.\n\nWe want to forecast when one such fiber will be available for cheaper than a widely-available commodity synthetic fiber, using nylon as the reference. Although polyester is the most produced fiber, we have chosen nylon because it is 30 times more expensive per unit, higher quality than polyester, and thus more vulnerable to potential economic disruption from synbio, which makes it a more achievable goal for the industry. \n\nMultiple companies are currently working on this. Lululemon for example has recently [partnered](https://www.genomatica.com/nylon/) with Genomatica to develop a plant-based nylon to replace some of the petroleum-based nylon in [some](https://www.retaildive.com/news/lululemon-geno-plant-based-nylon-shirts/648222/) of its apparel. For more information and context please see the following report from the Boston Consulting Group: [Synthetic Biology Is About to Disrupt Your Industry](https://www.bcg.com/publications/2022/synthetic-biology-is-about-to-disrupt-your-industry)" }, { "id": 25572, "title": "Will chemicals produced from biomass achieve price parity with these three petrochemical equivalents before 2050?", "short_title": "Bio-gas-fermented chems = petrochem price?", "url_title": "Bio-gas-fermented chems = petrochem price?", "slug": "bio-gas-fermented-chems-petrochem-price", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-21T11:02:11.921701Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.856436Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25572, "title": "Will chemicals produced from biomass achieve price parity with these three petrochemical equivalents before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-06-21T11:02:11.921701Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held the *Scale Is All You Need* conference, bringing together a few dozen of the world's top synthetic top synthetic biology experts, entrepreneurs, and innovators in an intensive 2-day conference with Metaculus staff and forecasters in order to hash out a set of highest-impact innovation goals that would help the industry achieve its top objectives. \n\nThe group examining clean chemicals started with the IPCC goal of [net neutral carbon emissions](https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/) by 2050. The biggest bottleneck when it comes to replacing petroleum-derived products globally is the issue of petroleum based products being cheaper than bio based. In order to operationalize the question of whether such a price parity might be achieved, Metaculus has honed in on three specific chemicals:\n\n- Ethylene - Called the the \"[World’s Most Important Chemical](https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/ethylene-worlds-most-important-chemical)\" by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers trade association, ethylene is a key building block for plastics, polyester, vinyl, PVC, synthetic rubber, and foam insulation.\n- Propylene - One of the [oldest](https://www.cpchem.com/what-we-do/solutions/olefins/products/propylene-refinery-grade-p-p-mix) petrochemicals, propylene is [considered](https://phys.org/news/2022-09-carbon-neutralizing-propylene-production-catalyzes-petrochemical.html) to be the second most important starting product in petrochemical engineering after ethylene. It is [used](https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/propylene-price-index/) in a wide variety of applications, such as plastics, fibers and refrigerants.\n- Succinic Acid - After some initial promise particularly with the [high oil prices](https://archive.ph/ie5UT#selection-2427.6-2430.0) of the 2000s, bio-succinic acid startups have [failed](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026387622200048X), although some new processes may hold promise to be cheaper than petroleum-based succinic acid. \n\nThere are multiple pathways to achieving this price parity. One is a carbon tax. Please see relevant Metaculus questions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22561/50-of-world-gdp-carbon-pricing-enforcement/) and [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/) getting at this issue. The higher the upstream price of oil, the more feasibly price parity can be achieved. \n\nOther ways price parity might be achieved are through cheaper and newer pathways to build new molecules, as well as novel processes in biomanufacturing. So as an example, one way this could happen is for significant advances to be made in gasified lignocellulosic biomass, in order to boost availability of feedstock into new areas. Please see related Metaculus question: [Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25565/biomass-gasification-hits-500m-tons-by-2050/) And then of course, price parity with petrochemicals might happen naturally over time through the standard blocking and tackling of these businesses over time, mostly from the creation of increased economies of scale lowering production cost per unit, compared with the more static nature of petrochemical competitors. \n\nSee Also\n\n[International Energy Agency (IEA) 2020 report on bio-based chemicals (PDF)](https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Bio-based-chemicals-a-2020-update-final-200213.pdf)\n\n[Biomass processing technologies for bioenergy production: factors for future global market](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-023-05211-1)\n\n[Unpacking bio-based alternatives to ethylene production in Brazil, Europe, and the United States: A comparative life cycle assessment](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623035345)\n\nIEA: [The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers (PDF)](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/bee4ef3a-8876-4566-98cf-7a130c013805/The_Future_of_Petrochemicals.pdf)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any point before January 1, 2050, the prices of all of the following chemicals produced from biomass have simultaneously reached price parity or better, compared with their petrochemical equivalents:\n\n1. Ethylene.\n2. Propylene.\n3. Succinic Acid.\n\nPrice parity is defined as each biomass-produced chemical being priced per unit at the commercial or industrial level at no more than 2% above its petrochemical equivalent, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as government data, industry or market reports, or economic studies. \n\nIf after December 31, 2049, Metaculus Admins determine that there is not sufficient evidence that price parity has been achieved for all three specified chemicals simultaneously, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Due to potential for ambiguity, this question will only consider price of equivalent chemicals and will not look at factors such as quality, performance, or environmental impact.", "post_id": 25572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750126888.565509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750126888.565509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.455001959566808 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037828112710855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 1.5176266504557887, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288892.251944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288892.251944, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7973504242684022, 0.2026495757315978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held the *Scale Is All You Need* conference, bringing together a few dozen of the world's top synthetic top synthetic biology experts, entrepreneurs, and innovators in an intensive 2-day conference with Metaculus staff and forecasters in order to hash out a set of highest-impact innovation goals that would help the industry achieve its top objectives. \n\nThe group examining clean chemicals started with the IPCC goal of [net neutral carbon emissions](https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/) by 2050. The biggest bottleneck when it comes to replacing petroleum-derived products globally is the issue of petroleum based products being cheaper than bio based. In order to operationalize the question of whether such a price parity might be achieved, Metaculus has honed in on three specific chemicals:\n\n- Ethylene - Called the the \"[World’s Most Important Chemical](https://www.afpm.org/newsroom/blog/ethylene-worlds-most-important-chemical)\" by the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers trade association, ethylene is a key building block for plastics, polyester, vinyl, PVC, synthetic rubber, and foam insulation.\n- Propylene - One of the [oldest](https://www.cpchem.com/what-we-do/solutions/olefins/products/propylene-refinery-grade-p-p-mix) petrochemicals, propylene is [considered](https://phys.org/news/2022-09-carbon-neutralizing-propylene-production-catalyzes-petrochemical.html) to be the second most important starting product in petrochemical engineering after ethylene. It is [used](https://businessanalytiq.com/procurementanalytics/index/propylene-price-index/) in a wide variety of applications, such as plastics, fibers and refrigerants.\n- Succinic Acid - After some initial promise particularly with the [high oil prices](https://archive.ph/ie5UT#selection-2427.6-2430.0) of the 2000s, bio-succinic acid startups have [failed](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026387622200048X), although some new processes may hold promise to be cheaper than petroleum-based succinic acid. \n\nThere are multiple pathways to achieving this price parity. One is a carbon tax. Please see relevant Metaculus questions [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22561/50-of-world-gdp-carbon-pricing-enforcement/) and [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7877/date-us-passes-national-carbon-pricing-bill/) getting at this issue. The higher the upstream price of oil, the more feasibly price parity can be achieved. \n\nOther ways price parity might be achieved are through cheaper and newer pathways to build new molecules, as well as novel processes in biomanufacturing. So as an example, one way this could happen is for significant advances to be made in gasified lignocellulosic biomass, in order to boost availability of feedstock into new areas. Please see related Metaculus question: [Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25565/biomass-gasification-hits-500m-tons-by-2050/) And then of course, price parity with petrochemicals might happen naturally over time through the standard blocking and tackling of these businesses over time, mostly from the creation of increased economies of scale lowering production cost per unit, compared with the more static nature of petrochemical competitors. \n\nSee Also\n\n[International Energy Agency (IEA) 2020 report on bio-based chemicals (PDF)](https://www.ieabioenergy.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Bio-based-chemicals-a-2020-update-final-200213.pdf)\n\n[Biomass processing technologies for bioenergy production: factors for future global market](https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s13762-023-05211-1)\n\n[Unpacking bio-based alternatives to ethylene production in Brazil, Europe, and the United States: A comparative life cycle assessment](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959652623035345)\n\nIEA: [The Future of Petrochemicals: Towards more sustainable plastics and fertilisers (PDF)](https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/bee4ef3a-8876-4566-98cf-7a130c013805/The_Future_of_Petrochemicals.pdf)" }, { "id": 25565, "title": "Will gasified lignocellulosic biomass and microbial gas fermentation scale to 500 million tons before 2050?", "short_title": "Biomass gasification hits 500M tons by 2050?", "url_title": "Biomass gasification hits 500M tons by 2050?", "slug": "biomass-gasification-hits-500m-tons-by-2050", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-20T22:28:55.970098Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.178111Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, 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"question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a conference in Berkeley, California bringing together some of the top synthetic biologists in their field, in order to tackle some of the toughest bottlenecks in the industry toward achieving important long-term objectives. One such objective is bringing the world toward a net neutral CO₂ emissions economy by 2050. This is a difficult challenge because, as one participant put it, \"To make a gigaton of chemicals we need a gigaton of feedstock.\"\n\nOne possible intervention that could provide the world with enough feedstock to reach the total tons of biochemicals needed would be step change advancements in [Lignocellulosic biomass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignocellulosic_biomass). It exists in vast abundance globally, if it could be used as feedstock. Waste biomass (farm/forestry residue) especially, tends to have a low price and has no current use. Preferentially, waste biomass that is produced at a point source could be used to make chemicals, such as [black liquor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_liquor) in pulp and paper mills and sugar beet pulp after sugar extraction. Additionally, corn [stalks and leaves](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060719091421.htm) are available in the hundreds of millions of tons, as well as forest [overgrowth](https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2021/04/14/fire-risk-wood-into-biofuel/). \n\nLignocellulosic biomass also includes fast-growing plants that would be inexpensive to produce and harvest as energy crops, such as switchgrass and elephant grass. \n\nUnlocking this potential, however, requires significant developments in CO₂-fermenting organisms and reactor systems. There are a lot of petroleum-based products that need to be replaced, not only fuels but plastics. This is very difficult and expensive to engineer using 2024 technologies. However, if these systems could exist, the conference participants were highly confident that hundreds of millions of tons would really not be that much, given the vast quantities laying around on the planet right now that would be so cheaply available. Theoretically then, this could create new products at the same price or cheaper than the incumbent petrochemical processes, which if it could be achieved would make it simple for bio-based alternatives to outcompete petroleum-based products based purely on economics. \t\t\t\n\nSee Also\n\n[Syngas Fermentation for the Production of Bio-Based Polymers: A Review](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8618084/)\n\n[Lignocellulosic Biorefinery Technologies: A Perception into Recent Advances in Biomass Fractionation, Biorefineries, Economic Hurdles and Market Outlook](https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/9/3/238)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2050, the reported total global production capacity of chemicals produced from gasified lignocellulosic biomass using microbial gas fermentation reaches at least 500 million metric tons per year.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as government agency reporting, industry reports, and scientific publications. If Metaculus Admins determine that there is not sufficient evidence that this level of global production capacity has been achieved, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25565, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750126812.482703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750126812.482703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.32143581678570565 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4847110553436469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4856576896418114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287772.179047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287772.179047, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9057675009974948, 0.09423249900250519 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a conference in Berkeley, California bringing together some of the top synthetic biologists in their field, in order to tackle some of the toughest bottlenecks in the industry toward achieving important long-term objectives. One such objective is bringing the world toward a net neutral CO₂ emissions economy by 2050. This is a difficult challenge because, as one participant put it, \"To make a gigaton of chemicals we need a gigaton of feedstock.\"\n\nOne possible intervention that could provide the world with enough feedstock to reach the total tons of biochemicals needed would be step change advancements in [Lignocellulosic biomass](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lignocellulosic_biomass). It exists in vast abundance globally, if it could be used as feedstock. Waste biomass (farm/forestry residue) especially, tends to have a low price and has no current use. Preferentially, waste biomass that is produced at a point source could be used to make chemicals, such as [black liquor](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_liquor) in pulp and paper mills and sugar beet pulp after sugar extraction. Additionally, corn [stalks and leaves](https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060719091421.htm) are available in the hundreds of millions of tons, as well as forest [overgrowth](https://newscenter.lbl.gov/2021/04/14/fire-risk-wood-into-biofuel/). \n\nLignocellulosic biomass also includes fast-growing plants that would be inexpensive to produce and harvest as energy crops, such as switchgrass and elephant grass. \n\nUnlocking this potential, however, requires significant developments in CO₂-fermenting organisms and reactor systems. There are a lot of petroleum-based products that need to be replaced, not only fuels but plastics. This is very difficult and expensive to engineer using 2024 technologies. However, if these systems could exist, the conference participants were highly confident that hundreds of millions of tons would really not be that much, given the vast quantities laying around on the planet right now that would be so cheaply available. Theoretically then, this could create new products at the same price or cheaper than the incumbent petrochemical processes, which if it could be achieved would make it simple for bio-based alternatives to outcompete petroleum-based products based purely on economics. \t\t\t\n\nSee Also\n\n[Syngas Fermentation for the Production of Bio-Based Polymers: A Review](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8618084/)\n\n[Lignocellulosic Biorefinery Technologies: A Perception into Recent Advances in Biomass Fractionation, Biorefineries, Economic Hurdles and Market Outlook](https://www.mdpi.com/2311-5637/9/3/238)" }, { "id": 25526, "title": "Will the cost of developing a bioproduct be reduced by 100x before 2045, compared with 2024?", "short_title": "Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?", "url_title": "Will bioproduct development costs go ↓ 100x?", "slug": "will-bioproduct-development-costs-go-100x", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], 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"spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2045-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2044-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2044-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the article *An Automated Scientist to Design and Optimize Microbial Strains for the Industrial Production of Small Molecules* ([pdf here](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1.full.pdf)) \n\n>Although industrial fermentation of engineered microbes has proven impactful in that it can deliver high purity biomolecules in sustainable fashion at stable cost, the R&D process of bringing a single biomolecule from idea to small scale production (milligrams) to applications testing (kilograms) to market (tons) is lengthy (years to a decade or more) and expensive (**$100-$200M**), a barrier that prevents many new biomolecules from going to market.\n\nThese costs have come down over the decades [due to](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9559305/) such factors as the technological cost curves in DNA Synthesis and Sequencing, improved machine learning, new genome engineering tools such as CRISPR-Cas9, and rapid tool advances. \n\nOn June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a *Scale Is All You Need* workshop in Berkeley, California, to identify a set of technical innovations or scientific insights that, if developed, could help resolve the bottlenecks that currently make it difficult for synthetic biology companies to innovate. Operating under the [Chatham House Rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule), subject matter experts identified the continued high costs of engineering, prototyping, and deployment of engineered organisms as an enormous bottleneck in the synthetic biology industry. \n\nThe scientists identified the following potential interventions, if they happened before 2035, as having potential to unlock this bottleneck: \n\n- Greatly-reduced costs of fermentation tests are available before 2035, assuming a sufficiently high Positive Predictive Value is maintained.\n\n- Universal molecular biology tools for use across organisms are available before 2040. \n\n- A model is developed that can predict protein function (catalytic activity, binding affinity, etc.) from any genotype with 90% accuracy before 2035.\n\n- In general, overcoming the significant long-term challenge in synthetic biology of being able to accurately predict phenotype from genotype would be enormous, especially if it could be done with a high degree of accuracy. While the group did not find this to be very feasible, as one participant put it, \"Solving genotype<>phenotype would guarantee the 100x drop.\"\n\n- Before January 1, 2035, at least 10 scalable non-model organisms that grow on waste are developed and available.\n\n- Greatly-increased amounts of publicly-available resources and datasets. One example would be the creation of gene modules, organisms, assay and molecular biology technologies -- and other physical materials -- that are open-source, free to use and commercialize, and easy to access.\t\n\nSee Also\n\nGenetic Engineering & Biotechnology News: [Fermentation Margins and Cost of Goods](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)\n\nAlChE: [SBE Supplement: Commercializing Industrial Biotechnology - Use Cost Models to Guide R&D](https://www.aiche.org/resources/publications/cep/2016/june/sbe-supplement-commercializing-industrial-biotechnology-use-cost-models-guide-rd)\n\nNielsen J, Keasling JD. [Engineering Cellular Metabolism](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/). Cell. 2016 Mar 10;164(6):1185-1197. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2016.02.004. PMID: 26967285.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the average inflation-adjusted cost of developing a bioproduct has decreased by 100 times or more before January 1, 2045, compared to the cost in 2024. If this does not occur by the specified date, the question will resolve as **No.**\n\nFor purposes of this question, the 2024 cost is assumed to be in the range of $100 million to $200 million, according to the most recent article in the scientific literature that has examined the subject at the time of this question, [here](https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/An-Automated-Scientist-to-Design-and-Optimize-for-Singh-Kaufmann-Malaga/d3dcd1b9c86feb584a803596aed2b0c34ed11d5c). Therefore, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the inflation-adjusted average cost of the R&D process of bringing a single biomolecule from idea to small scale production to applications testing to market is reported to be less than or equal to $2 million (in 2024 dollars), at any point before January 1, 2045.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752279021.816271, "end_time": 1785160279.629907, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752279021.816271, "end_time": 1785160279.629907, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4779311627796921 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5699081483698708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.5394643218522802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 1.7394682331392084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289549.982972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289549.982972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5155469148384064, 0.48445308516159363 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 21, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the article *An Automated Scientist to Design and Optimize Microbial Strains for the Industrial Production of Small Molecules* ([pdf here](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1.full.pdf)) \n\n>Although industrial fermentation of engineered microbes has proven impactful in that it can deliver high purity biomolecules in sustainable fashion at stable cost, the R&D process of bringing a single biomolecule from idea to small scale production (milligrams) to applications testing (kilograms) to market (tons) is lengthy (years to a decade or more) and expensive (**$100-$200M**), a barrier that prevents many new biomolecules from going to market.\n\nThese costs have come down over the decades [due to](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9559305/) such factors as the technological cost curves in DNA Synthesis and Sequencing, improved machine learning, new genome engineering tools such as CRISPR-Cas9, and rapid tool advances. \n\nOn June 3-4, 2024, Metaculus and the [Astera Institute](https://astera.org/) held a *Scale Is All You Need* workshop in Berkeley, California, to identify a set of technical innovations or scientific insights that, if developed, could help resolve the bottlenecks that currently make it difficult for synthetic biology companies to innovate. Operating under the [Chatham House Rule](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chatham_House_Rule), subject matter experts identified the continued high costs of engineering, prototyping, and deployment of engineered organisms as an enormous bottleneck in the synthetic biology industry. \n\nThe scientists identified the following potential interventions, if they happened before 2035, as having potential to unlock this bottleneck: \n\n- Greatly-reduced costs of fermentation tests are available before 2035, assuming a sufficiently high Positive Predictive Value is maintained.\n\n- Universal molecular biology tools for use across organisms are available before 2040. \n\n- A model is developed that can predict protein function (catalytic activity, binding affinity, etc.) from any genotype with 90% accuracy before 2035.\n\n- In general, overcoming the significant long-term challenge in synthetic biology of being able to accurately predict phenotype from genotype would be enormous, especially if it could be done with a high degree of accuracy. While the group did not find this to be very feasible, as one participant put it, \"Solving genotype<>phenotype would guarantee the 100x drop.\"\n\n- Before January 1, 2035, at least 10 scalable non-model organisms that grow on waste are developed and available.\n\n- Greatly-increased amounts of publicly-available resources and datasets. One example would be the creation of gene modules, organisms, assay and molecular biology technologies -- and other physical materials -- that are open-source, free to use and commercialize, and easy to access.\t\n\nSee Also\n\nGenetic Engineering & Biotechnology News: [Fermentation Margins and Cost of Goods](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)\n\nAlChE: [SBE Supplement: Commercializing Industrial Biotechnology - Use Cost Models to Guide R&D](https://www.aiche.org/resources/publications/cep/2016/june/sbe-supplement-commercializing-industrial-biotechnology-use-cost-models-guide-rd)\n\nNielsen J, Keasling JD. [Engineering Cellular Metabolism](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/). Cell. 2016 Mar 10;164(6):1185-1197. doi: 10.1016/j.cell.2016.02.004. PMID: 26967285." }, { "id": 25523, "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?", "short_title": "Nigel Farage UK PM before Jan 1 2035?", "url_title": "Nigel Farage UK PM before Jan 1 2035?", "slug": "nigel-farage-uk-pm-before-jan-1-2035", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-19T16:42:28.795762Z", "published_at": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T10:54:51.745136Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25523, "title": "Will Nigel Farage become Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035?", "created_at": "2024-06-19T16:42:28.795762Z", "open_time": "2024-06-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-27T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-27T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of Reform UK since June 2024, having previously been the leader of the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of Clacton in Essex.\n\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) suggests that the ruling Conservative Party, in power for 14 years, is on the verge of an unprecedentedly [catastrophic defeat](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-general-election-2024-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html), and Prime Minister [Rishi Sunak may even lose his own seat.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) Some observers suggest the Conservative Party is [facing an existential threat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/08/from-humiliation-to-annihilation-could-this-election-mean-the-end-of-the-tory-party-as-we-know-it), and [may go extinct](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/the-tories-are-teetering-on-the-brink-of-extinction/) as a political force. \n\nThe expected scale of Tory losses has led some to speculate that Farage may emerge as a major opposition force during a Labour government, and Farage himself has said he aims to [position himself as an alternative Prime Minister by 2029.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/17/nigel-farage-plan-run-for-prime-minister-2029/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if credible media reports indicate that Nigel Farage holds the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before January 1, 2035, and as **No** if this does not occur. \n\nIf the United Kingdom ceases to exist before this occurs or before January 1, 2035, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758279280.750857, "end_time": 1763803430.585419, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758279280.750857, "end_time": 1763803430.585419, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.36280399201067337 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.42089866646249546, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.4944749737036336, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7548034455149749, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.26496281908746716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 1.8523343069427227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5236874117677752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4664211753529863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17432385940460654 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288065.15235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288065.15235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9633306391041715, 0.03666936089582846 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 144, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of Reform UK since June 2024, having previously been the leader of the UK Independence Party and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of Clacton in Essex.\n\n[Opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) suggests that the ruling Conservative Party, in power for 14 years, is on the verge of an unprecedentedly [catastrophic defeat](https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-general-election-2024-poll-projection-seats-wipeout-b2555671.html), and Prime Minister [Rishi Sunak may even lose his own seat.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/19/rishi-sunak-to-lose-seat-tory-wipeout-major-poll-predicts/) Some observers suggest the Conservative Party is [facing an existential threat](https://www.theguardian.com/politics/article/2024/jun/08/from-humiliation-to-annihilation-could-this-election-mean-the-end-of-the-tory-party-as-we-know-it), and [may go extinct](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/06/19/the-tories-are-teetering-on-the-brink-of-extinction/) as a political force. \n\nThe expected scale of Tory losses has led some to speculate that Farage may emerge as a major opposition force during a Labour government, and Farage himself has said he aims to [position himself as an alternative Prime Minister by 2029.](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2024/06/17/nigel-farage-plan-run-for-prime-minister-2029/)" }, { "id": 25520, "title": "Will Nigel Farage be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "short_title": "Nigel Farage Elected MP in 2024 UK GE?", "url_title": "Nigel Farage Elected MP in 2024 UK GE?", "slug": "nigel-farage-elected-mp-in-2024-uk-ge", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], 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Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK General Election?", "created_at": "2024-06-19T12:50:46.876535Z", "open_time": "2024-06-20T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-21T20:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-21T20:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party) and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of [Clacton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in Essex.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, the Conservative Party candidate, Giles Watling, won the seat with 72.3% of the vote, and is standing for re-election. However, recent polling suggests that Farage is favoured to win the constituency. \n\nThe Times: [Nigel Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6)\n\n>Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.\n\n>The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.\n\n>Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** in the event that in the 2024 UK general election held on July 4, 2024, Nigel Farage is elected as the member of parliament (MP) for any UK constituency. The question will resolve as **No** if this does not occur, unless the general election is cancelled or postponed beyond July 4 2024, in which case the question will be **annulled**.\n\nResolution should cite credible media reports from the BBC, the Times, the Financial Times, the Guardian, or other major UK news sources; or the official announcement of the returning officer for any constituency in which Nigel Farage is a candidate. \n\nFarage need not be sworn in as an MP for the question to resolve as **Yes** -- this question resolves on the basis of his election or non-election.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25520, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720085816.956627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720085816.956627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9050131176522184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26149236509479434, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.30179287446584263, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1379373428276254, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.3519440124101262, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4368417477915896, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.89599398160124, 0.035579456289155105, 0.6019627254324547, 0.5029882706621958, 2.065730063225936 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.748424924750332, "coverage": 0.9999966131432584, "baseline_score": 78.76819681589943, "spot_peer_score": -10.10894832220606, "peer_archived_score": 3.748424924750332, "baseline_archived_score": 78.76819681589943, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.10894832220606 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720085817.00469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720085817.00469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06447743434927022, 0.9355225656507298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nigel Paul Farage](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nigel_Farage?useskin=vector), born 3 April 1964, is a British politician who has served as the leader of [Reform UK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reform_UK?useskin=vector) since June 2024, having previously been the leader of [UK Independence Party](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UK_Independence_Party) and the Brexit Party. Farage was a leading figure in the [Brexit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brexit?useskin=vector) movement.\n\nIn the [2024 UK general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) to be held on July 4, Farage is contesting the constituency of [Clacton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clacton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in Essex.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, the Conservative Party candidate, Giles Watling, won the seat with 72.3% of the vote, and is standing for re-election. However, recent polling suggests that Farage is favoured to win the constituency. \n\nThe Times: [Nigel Farage set to win Clacton ‘with biggest swing in modern history’](https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/farage-set-to-win-clacton-with-biggest-swing-in-modern-history-5tzjsmtw6)\n\n>Nigel Farage is on course to win the Clacton seat with the biggest swing in modern electoral history, a new poll has suggested.\n\n>The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, a former Ukip donor, suggests that Farage will win 42 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex. The Tories are forecast to win 27 per cent and Labour 24 per cent.\n\n>Survation, the company that carried out the survey, said the scale of the projected swing from the Tories to Reform would be “extremely rare” and “unprecedented in modern electoral history”." }, { "id": 25519, "title": "Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?", "short_title": "High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?", "url_title": "High fidelity fermentation test <$10 by 2035?", "slug": "high-fidelity-fermentation-test-10-by-2035", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127496, "username": "Sempervivens" }, { "id": 183279, "username": "samuelrlevin" } ], "created_at": "2024-06-19T10:39:55.946305Z", "published_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.037294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3326, "type": "question_series", "name": "Synthetic Biology at Scale", "slug": "synbio", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Biologics_header_bC1nPf3.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-03T14:30:29Z", "close_date": "2052-01-01T23:32:29Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-17T22:32:30.105206Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-06T03:59:24.425275Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25519, "title": "Will a high fidelity fermentation test that costs under $10 be commercially available before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-06-19T10:39:55.946305Z", "open_time": "2024-07-03T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "State of the art, high fidelity fermentation tests (e.g. those done in a benchtop bioreactor, or [AMBR250](https://www.sartorius.com/en/products/fermentation-bioreactors/ambr-multi-parallel-bioreactors/ambr-250-high-throughput), which are predictive of performance at scale), as of June 2024 cost ~$1,500 per test. Start-ups are actively working on developing cheaper alternatives to these tests ([example](https://agfundernews.com/caladan-bio-raises-5m-seed-round-to-build-next-generation-benchtop-bioreactors)).\n\nOn the production side, bioproducts currently cost ~50 dollars per kg to be produced through fermentation ([source](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)) Development costs are the main potential bottleneck in optimization of costs of bioproducts, due to the high cost required for every benchtop experiment. On average, it takes $50M to $100M to bring a bioproduct to market. ([source](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1)) Approximately 90% of the cost of this is spent on strain and process optimization due to the cost of running fermentation tests, which [provide](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/) key data in the iterative process of strain and process optimization. If this were drastically reduced, in principle, it could allow for more innovation, R&D, and optimization, potentially leading to bioproduct cost optimization.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before January 1, 2035, a high fidelity, predictive fermentation test (bioreactor run) that costs under $10 per test on average is commercially available for research & development purposes. \n\nIf no such test meeting these criteria is available before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as vendor listings, scientific publications, or news articles.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially available\" means able to be purchased by research institutions, laboratories, and/or companies for R&D purposes. \n\n\"High fidelity\" and \"predictive\" mean a Positive Predictive Value (PPV) > 0.90.", "post_id": 25519, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753743707.19997, "end_time": 1779342698.499867, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753743707.19997, "end_time": 1779342698.499867, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.09559137116650421 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.46583116261132207, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41674342759689076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.5766554926712493, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288490.764458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288490.764458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9820961751491842, 0.017903824850815712 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "State of the art, high fidelity fermentation tests (e.g. those done in a benchtop bioreactor, or [AMBR250](https://www.sartorius.com/en/products/fermentation-bioreactors/ambr-multi-parallel-bioreactors/ambr-250-high-throughput), which are predictive of performance at scale), as of June 2024 cost ~$1,500 per test. Start-ups are actively working on developing cheaper alternatives to these tests ([example](https://agfundernews.com/caladan-bio-raises-5m-seed-round-to-build-next-generation-benchtop-bioreactors)).\n\nOn the production side, bioproducts currently cost ~50 dollars per kg to be produced through fermentation ([source](https://www.genengnews.com/topics/bioprocessing/fermentation-margins-and-cost-of-goods/)) Development costs are the main potential bottleneck in optimization of costs of bioproducts, due to the high cost required for every benchtop experiment. On average, it takes $50M to $100M to bring a bioproduct to market. ([source](https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2023.01.03.521657v1)) Approximately 90% of the cost of this is spent on strain and process optimization due to the cost of running fermentation tests, which [provide](https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26967285/) key data in the iterative process of strain and process optimization. If this were drastically reduced, in principle, it could allow for more innovation, R&D, and optimization, potentially leading to bioproduct cost optimization." }, { "id": 25513, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?", "short_title": "Gamestop Docusign Who Will be Worth More?", "url_title": "Gamestop Docusign Who Will be Worth More?", "slug": "gamestop-docusign-who-will-be-worth-more", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-18T22:07:06.923011Z", "published_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.444945Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25513, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Gamestop's market capitalization be higher than Docusign's, according to CompaniesMarketCap?", "created_at": "2024-06-18T22:07:06.923011Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-28T22:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 billion in revenues. Its revenues were *down* 11% year over year.\n\nAccording to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261333/000126133324000045/docu-20240131.htm), Docusign offers contract lifecycle management software and the world's leading electronic signature product. In the year ended January 31, 2024, it made $73.98 million in net income with $2.76 million in revenues. Its revenues were *up* 9.8% year over year. \n\nAs of June 18, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap reported a market capitalization of $10.52 billion for GameStop compared with $10.43 billion for DocuSign.\n\nSee Also\n\nFox Business: [GameStop meme stock mania is SEC’s bad dream on repeat | GameStop shares have advanced over 100% this quarter](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gamestop-meme-stock-mania-secs-bad-dream-repeat)\n\nAP: [Gamestop shares slump following annual shareholder meeting](https://apnews.com/article/gamestop-stock-annual-shareholder-meeting-db6785418358f3446e343d1b6647604d)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, on Friday June 28, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Gamestop than Docusign, when checked by Metaculus after 4:00 PM EDT (8:00 PM UTC). If CompaniesMarketCap shows a greater market cap for Docusign than Gamestop, this question resolves as **No**.\n\n- Gamestop's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/gamestop/marketcap/).\n- Docusign's page can be accessed [here](https://companiesmarketcap.com/docusign/marketcap/).", "fine_print": "In case of a tie, the tiebreaker will be the company ranked higher by CompaniesMarketCap (i.e, \"most valuable company by market cap according to our data\"). If it continues to be a tie, the next tiebreaker will be alphabetical order (which in this case means Docusign).\n\nIf the CompaniesMarketCap website is inaccessible by Metaculus Admins from 4:01 PM EDT until 11:59 PM EDT on June 28, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 25513, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719522200.098992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719522200.098992, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.21681787584257828 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.0, 0.10228230303850093, 0.09043497114579632, 0.3983517458900416, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1762271992262812, 0.8537419995997547, 0.16193689729934868, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4838960688066418, 1.088112375802472, 0.06984569336479438, 0.045661515517217234, 0.80553422910174, 1.2534633244261042, 0.0, 0.0391307538660947, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.6183824862044336, 0.5642982571167124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009362214450677682, 0.0, 0.025997929795521624, 0.01223904243451124, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.023344988892241045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.61443971782953, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6036122362200822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015497814578501265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4337183691184219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004502492091281563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.510678344591746, "coverage": 0.9995575672524472, "baseline_score": 61.676033508170946, "spot_peer_score": -3.854687120759749, "peer_archived_score": 11.510678344591746, "baseline_archived_score": 61.676033508170946, "spot_peer_archived_score": -3.854687120759749 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719522200.14401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719522200.14401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8174916537136492, 0.18250834628635085 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326380/000132638024000012/gme-20240203.htm), Gamestop is a specialty retailer with 4,169 physical stores, offering games, entertainment products and technology. In the year ended December 31, 2023, it made $6.7 million in net income with $5.27 billion in revenues. Its revenues were *down* 11% year over year.\n\nAccording to its [annual report](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1261333/000126133324000045/docu-20240131.htm), Docusign offers contract lifecycle management software and the world's leading electronic signature product. In the year ended January 31, 2024, it made $73.98 million in net income with $2.76 million in revenues. Its revenues were *up* 9.8% year over year. \n\nAs of June 18, 2024, CompaniesMarketCap reported a market capitalization of $10.52 billion for GameStop compared with $10.43 billion for DocuSign.\n\nSee Also\n\nFox Business: [GameStop meme stock mania is SEC’s bad dream on repeat | GameStop shares have advanced over 100% this quarter](https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/gamestop-meme-stock-mania-secs-bad-dream-repeat)\n\nAP: [Gamestop shares slump following annual shareholder meeting](https://apnews.com/article/gamestop-stock-annual-shareholder-meeting-db6785418358f3446e343d1b6647604d)" }, { "id": 25499, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?", "short_title": "Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal renewal", "url_title": "Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal renewal", "slug": "russia-ukraine-gas-transit-deal-renewal", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-18T13:39:24.734635Z", "published_at": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.973095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T18:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25499, "title": "Will Russia and Ukraine sign or prolong natural gas transit deal before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-06-18T13:39:24.734635Z", "open_time": "2024-06-22T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-09T18:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-09T18:50:44.676975Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).\n\nAfter Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.\n\nThe current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time.", "resolution_criteria": "This questions resolves *Yes* if credible sources report that Gazprom (or its successor) and Naftogaz/Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) (or the entity that owns the Ukrainian gas transit system at the time) has: \n\n- prolonged the current 5-year agreement, or\n- signed a new agreement\n\nbefore January 1, 2025, which allows Gazprom to transit gas through Ukraine to a point outside of Ukraine. If no such report is made before January 1 , 2025, this question resolves as *No*.", "fine_print": "* The agreement must have a length of at least 1 year to count. An agreement between the Russian and Ukrainian governments would also count towards resolution of this question.\n* An agreement must be bilateral, transit of gas produced in 3rd countries does not count.\n* Two separate agreements, one with Ukraine and a 3rd party and a second one with Russia and a 3rd party, does not count.\n* A 'swap' of gas with a 3rd party gas producer does not count.\n* Ukraine must be contracted by Russia to provide the gas transport service and Russia must pay Ukraine the transit fees.", "post_id": 25499, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735311656.453956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735311656.453956, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03256365813384477 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.762355782033814, 1.7346631777618298, 0.3107369763284956, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.18271282573225, "peer_score": 15.276365887853629, "coverage": 0.9988774113808047, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988774113808047, "spot_peer_score": 1.2304025879311908, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 97.18271282573225, "peer_archived_score": 15.276365887853629, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2304025879311908, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287231.013595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287231.013595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9983318104655211, 0.0016681895344789132 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Until Russian invasion into Ukraine in 2022, most of Russian natural gas was sold in Europe, transited through pipelines in Ukraine. Use of those pipelines, transit and natural gas prices were set in convoluted bilateral agreements, which caused [a lot of tensions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia%E2%80%93Ukraine_gas_disputes).\n\nAfter Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine stopped buying natural gas from Russia directly, but transit remained, and agreements [were renewed](https://www.naftogaz.com/en/news/naftogaz-gtsou-and-gazprom-signed-a-set-of-agreements-to-ensure-russian-gas-transit-over-the-next-five-years) in 2019 for five years. Even the Russia-Ukraine war didn't stop the flow, although transit levels dropped by [an order of magnitude](https://www.energypolicy.columbia.edu/qa-russian-gas-transit-through-ukraine/) since its heights in 2008.\n\nThe current bilateral agreement is set to expire at the end of 2024, and the Ukraine government said [it doesn't plan to extend or renew it](https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-has-no-plan-extend-russian-gas-transit-deal-2024-03-17/). However, Ukraine remains reliant on Russian natural gas, which is still bought via [virtual reverse flow](https://www.enerdata.net/publications/daily-energy-news/ukraine-launches-virtual-gas-reverse-flow-slovakia.html). Replacing it with actual reverse flow requires large capital investments, and it is not clear if infrastructure can be prepared in time." }, { "id": 25488, "title": "Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say \"deepfake\" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?", "short_title": "Debate utterance of the word \"deepfake\"?", "url_title": "Debate utterance of the word \"deepfake\"?", "slug": "debate-utterance-of-the-word-deepfake", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T21:21:38.419686Z", "published_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.903221Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "open_time": 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25488, "title": "Will Trump, Biden or a moderator say \"deepfake\" in the CNN debate in Atlanta on June 27, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T21:21:38.419686Z", "open_time": "2024-06-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-20T10:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-30T16:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)\n\nBoth candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:\n\n- In his interview with Youtube podcaster Logan Paul on June 13, 2024, Donald Trump [discussed](https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?si=f-f0AMwAt_S0F5pB&t=2741) deepfakes, describing them as \"disconcerting\" and \"alarming,\" although avoiding specific usage of the word. \n\n- Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on June 10, 2024, [described](https://wcyb.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics) viral videos of Joe Biden appearing confused as \"deepfakes.\" \n\nCNN's current plans are for the debate to be [moderated by](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html) Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks.\n\nSee also: \n\nWashington Post [AI deepfakes threaten to upend global elections. No one can stop them.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/23/ai-deepfake-election-2024-us-india/)\n\n[Purdue profs show how deepfakes could impact 2024 presidential election](https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team-8/purdue-profs-show-how-deepfakes-could-impact-2024-presidential-election/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if during the broadcast of the presidential debate held by CNN scheduled for June 27, 2024, Donald Trump, Joe Biden, or one of the moderators utters the word \"deepfake.\" If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nDetermination of whether one of the candidates or moderators has uttered \"deepfake\" will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus's Admins. They will be the sole deciders of whether this has happened or not, and their decision will be final. In cases of ambiguity they may consult CNN's official transcript, typically posted at [transcripts.cnn.com](https://transcripts.cnn.com/). It's important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of the word, especially if it does not appear in the transcript, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other forms of the word such as plural, possessive, or gerund will count, as long as the rootword is used (for example \"deepfakes\" or \"deepfaking\"). \n\nDiscussion of the subject matter, without actually using the word, will not count.\n\nThe debate is expected to be held on June 27, 2024. In the case of a slight delay in the debate being held, resolution will wait up to a few days. However, if CNN does not host a US presidential debate before July 1, 2024, this question will be annulled.\n\nAccording to the rules memo [circulated by CNN](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/us/politics/trump-biden-debate-rules.html), “Microphones will be muted throughout the debate except for the candidate designated to speak.” If the word \"deepfake\" is said, for example by a muted candidate, but it is not caught on mic or in CNN's transcript, it will not count.\n\nMentions of \"deepfake\" by anyone other than Trump, Biden, or the moderators will not count.\n\nMentions of the word before the debate has begun or after it has ended will not count.", "post_id": 25488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719531073.11308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.291 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719531073.11308, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.291 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.52 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.40368058390663025 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28561011189009977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18184291418632875, 0.0, 0.010256932132203396, 0.14365297647072853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13063526414047666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5540861105137385, 0.09495037644869721, 0.0, 0.008904031237728248, 0.6039843306575171, 1.6299132667523466, 0.11566615689731327, 0.0, 0.35596600506552695, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.04547724726797887, 0.06506464557899415, 0.0, 0.37747527053912144, 0.0, 1.597180466756014, 0.021786738318048823, 0.0, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.15554853847505667, 0.0, 0.04136365129413757, 0.5296608745347693, 0.0, 0.7720769549905019, 0.9215688443987636, 0.4634048111397331, 0.940527522258481, 0.0, 0.5657631982301625, 0.6444319296650869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8903856634452886, 0.047560961667240526, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26529685493777405, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013401757476467992, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16826274979803604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.071522350599245, "coverage": 0.9995527024261872, "baseline_score": 21.29566435973129, "spot_peer_score": 42.59917989795842, "peer_archived_score": 18.071522350599245, "baseline_archived_score": 21.29566435973129, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.59917989795842 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719531073.142271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719531073.142271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.787187828289142, 0.21281217171085803 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related Metaculus question: [Will a politician claim they lost a major election due to a \"deepfake\" image, video, or audio recording in a G20 country before 2025?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17180/deepfake-costs-election-before-2025/)\n\nBoth candidates have recently had exposure to the subject:\n\n- In his interview with Youtube podcaster Logan Paul on June 13, 2024, Donald Trump [discussed](https://youtu.be/xrFdHO7FH8w?si=f-f0AMwAt_S0F5pB&t=2741) deepfakes, describing them as \"disconcerting\" and \"alarming,\" although avoiding specific usage of the word. \n\n- Joe Biden's press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre on June 10, 2024, [described](https://wcyb.com/news/nation-world/white-house-claims-recent-viral-videos-of-biden-are-actually-deepfakes-president-joe-biden-karine-jean-pierre-normandy-france-apulia-italy-g7-summit-2024-election-politics) viral videos of Joe Biden appearing confused as \"deepfakes.\" \n\nCNN's current plans are for the debate to be [moderated by](https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/15/politics/trump-biden-cnn-debate-rules/index.html) Jake Tapper and Dana Bash. It will be 90 minutes, with two commercial breaks.\n\nSee also: \n\nWashington Post [AI deepfakes threaten to upend global elections. No one can stop them.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/04/23/ai-deepfake-election-2024-us-india/)\n\n[Purdue profs show how deepfakes could impact 2024 presidential election](https://www.wishtv.com/news/i-team-8/purdue-profs-show-how-deepfakes-could-impact-2024-presidential-election/)" }, { "id": 25459, "title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) be lower than 11.5 on June 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish K", "url_title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish K", "slug": "will-the-exchange-rate-for-the-swedish-k", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.549411Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.353055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25459, "title": "Will the exchange rate for the Swedish Krona (SEK) to the US Dollar (USD) be lower than 11.5 on June 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.549411Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:55.012235Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established theories, but come to the conclusion that the SEK is increasingly undervalued during the last 10 years.\n\nIn 2021 the currency experts Philippe Bacchetta and Pauline Chikhani published [On the weakness of the Swedish krona](https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/pov/artiklar/engelska/2021/210319/2021_1-on-the-weakness-of-the-swedish-krona_er.pdf) (Comissioned by The Swedish Riksbank)\n\nBacchetta is Swiss Finance Institute Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Lausanne, and Program Director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance program of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR, London). Chikhani is a doctoral student at the University of Lausanne.\n\nIn 2019 Christos Papahristodoulou published Is There Any Theory that Explains the Swedish Krona (SEK)? (Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, ISSN 2393-5162, Vol. XIV, nr 3(65), s. 760-782)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the price of one US Dollar (USD) in Swedish Kronas (SEK) is lower than 11.5 on June 30 2024, 13.00, as published on the cross-rate website of the Swedish Riksbank [National Bank](https://www.riksbank.se/en-gb/statistics/search-interest--exchange-rates/cross-rates), and NO otherwise", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719245225.241872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719245225.241872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.67 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719302328.113521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719302328.113521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4017652181133319, 0.5982347818866681 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "10 years ago, one US Dollar (USD) cost 6,67 Swedish Krona (SEK). Today, June 26 2023, it costs 11,1 SEK. Several academic studies have tried to explain the declining value of SEK using established theories, but come to the conclusion that the SEK is increasingly undervalued during the last 10 years.\n\nIn 2021 the currency experts Philippe Bacchetta and Pauline Chikhani published [On the weakness of the Swedish krona](https://www.riksbank.se/globalassets/media/rapporter/pov/artiklar/engelska/2021/210319/2021_1-on-the-weakness-of-the-swedish-krona_er.pdf) (Comissioned by The Swedish Riksbank)\n\nBacchetta is Swiss Finance Institute Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of Lausanne, and Program Director of the International Macroeconomics and Finance program of the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR, London). Chikhani is a doctoral student at the University of Lausanne.\n\nIn 2019 Christos Papahristodoulou published Is There Any Theory that Explains the Swedish Krona (SEK)? (Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, ISSN 2393-5162, Vol. XIV, nr 3(65), s. 760-782)" }, { "id": 25457, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "short_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "url_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "slug": "will-tesla-bots-be-available-to-us-consu", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540246Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.719473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25457, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540246Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the earliest date on which general US consumers can take delivery from Tesla, Inc. a device having characteristics broadly in line with those of the proposed Tesla Bot is between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31, and NO otherwise. In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count. Note that this question will resolve as the first date on which general consumers physically possess the device, having purchased it, leased it, licensed it, or otherwise contracted with Tesla for physical custody of it, not on the date on which a deposit can be placed, a device can be ordered, pre-ordered, or otherwise contracted for. The consumers must be legally entitled to operate the device; a right to possess but not operate the device will not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25457, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can." } ] }
