Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=260
{ "count": 6252, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=240", "results": [ { "id": 39696, "title": "Will the interest in \"nano banana\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nano banana\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"nano banana\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-nano-banana-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.587952Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T15:16:20Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.115166Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.921741Z", "comment_count": 84, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T21:43:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T15:16:20Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39073, "title": "Will the interest in \"nano banana\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.588341Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T15:16:20Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T21:43:07Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:57.817147Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T16:46:20Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nano banana” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 81; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nano banana\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-08 is greater than the value for 2025-09-02. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-09 to 2025-09-08 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"nano banana\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-09 2025-09-08\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39696, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756831439.81187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756831439.81187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.37051543209876553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 14.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.21091604053438, "peer_score": 9.701963384496462, "coverage": 0.9403235272124961, "relative_legacy_score": -0.029495650774828606, "weighted_coverage": 0.9403235272124961, "spot_peer_score": 8.153152584213373, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 41.21091604053438, "peer_archived_score": 9.701963384496462, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.029495650774828606, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.153152584213373, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “nano banana” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 81; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"nano banana\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=nano%20banana&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`" }, { "id": 39695, "title": "Will the interest in \"joni ernst\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"joni ernst\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"joni ernst\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-joni-ernst-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:04.791591Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T13:26:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.628878Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:05.138432Z", "comment_count": 77, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T06:11:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T13:26:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39072, "title": "Will the interest in \"joni ernst\" be greater on 2025-09-08 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:04.791985Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T13:26:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T06:11:21Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.311859Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T14:56:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “joni ernst” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 15; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"joni ernst\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-08 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-09 to 2025-09-08 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"joni ernst\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-09 2025-09-08\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39695, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756735649.736312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5415 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756735649.736312, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5415 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3906984649122806 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 11.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 35.065277999808295, "peer_score": 12.469424990923944, "coverage": 0.9442935020393796, "relative_legacy_score": 0.1067988438957822, "weighted_coverage": 0.9442935020393796, "spot_peer_score": 12.31591961927374, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 35.065277999808295, "peer_archived_score": 12.469424990923944, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.1067988438957822, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.31591961927374, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “joni ernst” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 15; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"joni ernst\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-08\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=joni%20ernst&date=2025-08-09%202025-09-08\"}}`" }, { "id": 39694, "title": "Will the interest in \"directv\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"directv\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"directv\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-directv-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.885450Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T08:17:56Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.180348Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:04.237482Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T18:06:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T08:17:56Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39071, "title": "Will the interest in \"directv\" be greater on 2025-09-09 than on 2025-09-02 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.885852Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T08:17:56Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T18:06:11Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:58.854480Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T09:47:56Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “directv” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 63; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"directv\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-09 is greater than the value for 2025-09-02. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-10 to 2025-09-09 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"directv\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-10 2025-09-09\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39694, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756805859.27933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756805859.27933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.53 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4319252136752139 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -34.50702307675002, "peer_score": 1.4373898675112713, "coverage": 0.9678818187007197, "relative_legacy_score": -0.08924000640006738, "weighted_coverage": 0.9678818187007197, "spot_peer_score": -2.0249509442567164, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -34.50702307675002, "peer_archived_score": 1.4373898675112713, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.08924000640006738, "spot_peer_archived_score": -2.0249509442567164, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “directv” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 63; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"directv\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-02\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-09\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=directv&date=2025-08-10%202025-09-09\"}}`" }, { "id": 39693, "title": "Will the interest in \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-04 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-apple-iphone-17-pro-release-date-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.111590Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T00:10:08Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.690718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.485406Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T04:35:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T00:10:08Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39070, "title": "Will the interest in \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-04 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:03.112049Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T00:10:08Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T04:35:01Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.386100Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T01:40:08Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “apple iphone 17 pro release date” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 75; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"apple iphone 17 pro release date\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-04\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-04. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"apple iphone 17 pro release date\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39693, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756949200.792639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756949200.792639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6995299145299146 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 13.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -94.474744521485, "peer_score": 6.227124311573035, "coverage": 0.9450818590764646, "relative_legacy_score": 0.14165458332017572, "weighted_coverage": 0.9450818590764646, "spot_peer_score": 5.5842334620173055, "spot_baseline_score": -88.8968687611256, "baseline_archived_score": -94.474744521485, "peer_archived_score": 6.227124311573035, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.14165458332017572, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.5842334620173055, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -88.8968687611256 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “apple iphone 17 pro release date” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 75; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"apple iphone 17 pro release date\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-04\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=apple%20iphone%2017%20pro%20release%20date&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39692, "title": "Will the interest in \"taiwan\" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"taiwan\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"taiwan\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-taiwan-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:02.327103Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T10:17:05Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:00.238323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:02.689874Z", "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T19:32:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:17:05Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39069, "title": "Will the interest in \"taiwan\" be greater on 2025-09-10 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:02.327536Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T10:17:05Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T19:32:03Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:41:59.885112Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T11:47:05Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “taiwan” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 16; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"taiwan\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-10\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-11%202025-09-10\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-11%202025-09-10), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-10 is greater than the value for 2025-09-03. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-11 to 2025-09-10 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"taiwan\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-11 2025-09-10\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39692, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756897434.77625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.476 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756897434.77625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.476 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.38603086419753097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.320380814950596, "peer_score": 4.904939600486824, "coverage": 0.9792016759183673, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04882249584087564, "weighted_coverage": 0.9792016759183673, "spot_peer_score": 4.8143703187555555, "spot_baseline_score": 33.34237337251918, "baseline_archived_score": 34.320380814950596, "peer_archived_score": 4.904939600486824, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04882249584087564, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.8143703187555555, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.34237337251918 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “taiwan” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 16; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"taiwan\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-10\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=taiwan&date=2025-08-11%202025-09-10\"}}`" }, { "id": 39691, "title": "Will the interest in \"bank\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"bank\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"bank\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-bank-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:01.470303Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T18:32:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:00.915051Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:01.844192Z", "comment_count": 85, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T12:15:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T18:32:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39068, "title": "Will the interest in \"bank\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-03 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:01.470714Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T18:32:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T12:15:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:00.624356Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T20:02:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “bank” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 40; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"bank\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-03. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"bank\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39691, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756929525.012168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46499999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756929525.012168, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.46499999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3959801587301588 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 5.0, 1.0, 0.0, 7.0, 2.0, 3.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 25.924399442940917, "peer_score": 1.1400372440149509, "coverage": 0.9676697642714889, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04193136473364065, "weighted_coverage": 0.9676697642714889, "spot_peer_score": 1.1903190633954674, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 25.924399442940917, "peer_archived_score": 1.1400372440149509, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04193136473364065, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.1903190633954674, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 84, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “bank” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 40; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"bank\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-03\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=bank&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39690, "title": "Will the interest in \"tariff\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"tariff\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"tariff\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-tariff-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:00.364666Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T11:16:15Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:01.446655Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:00.857793Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T15:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:16:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39067, "title": "Will the interest in \"tariff\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:55:00.365071Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T11:16:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T15:16:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:01.128125Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T12:46:15Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “tariff” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 9; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"tariff\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"tariff\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39690, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756727276.177464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.521 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756727276.177464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.39931306306306313 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 8.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 13.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 36.09771669078512, "peer_score": 13.250034101564706, "coverage": 0.9700795307424332, "relative_legacy_score": 0.27133773124029537, "weighted_coverage": 0.9700795307424332, "spot_peer_score": 12.8229803832442, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 36.09771669078512, "peer_archived_score": 13.250034101564706, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.27133773124029537, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.8229803832442, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 74, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “tariff” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 9; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"tariff\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=tariff&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39689, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "short_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump\" rise?", "url_title": "Will Google Trend topic \"trump\" rise?", "slug": "will-google-trend-topic-trump-rise", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.416519Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T05:24:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.189879Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.768399Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T16:47:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T05:24:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 71, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39066, "title": "Will the interest in \"trump\" be greater on 2025-09-11 than on 2025-09-01 according to Google Trends?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.416906Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T05:24:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T16:47:39Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-11T23:59:59Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:01.736784Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T06:54:03Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “trump” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 62; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, on the Google Trends \"interest over time chart [here](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11), the day-aggregated value for 2025-09-11 is greater than the value for 2025-09-01. Otherwise, it resolves to \"No\". The chart must be viewed with the date range fixed to 2025-08-12 to 2025-09-11 to lock the relative scale and ensure consistent day-level aggregation.", "fine_print": "A script will be used to determine the resolution of this question. It will access the data on Google Trends using [SerpApi](https://serpapi.com/), and compare the height of the timeline for the two aforementioned dates. The specific python query will be structured as follows:\n```\nfrom serpapi import GoogleSearch\n\nsearch = GoogleSearch(params={\n \"api_key\": API_KEY,\n \"engine\": \"google_trends\",\n \"data_type\": \"TIMESERIES\",\n \"geo\": \"US\",\n \"tz\": 0,\n \"q\": \"trump\",\n \"date\": \"2025-08-12 2025-09-11\",\n})\nsearch.get_dict()\n```\nNote that there may be minor differences between the results returned by the API and the data appearing on the page. This seems to be due to the 'tz' parameter not having the intended effect in-browser. In this case, the API results will be considered authoritative.\nNote that the precision of the timeline will be 1 day, so this will compare the overall interest for the whole day as determined by Google Trends.\nDates are determined in UTC.\nIf the data is no longer available, or the script fails, this question will be annulled or manually resolved by a moderator.", "post_id": 39689, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756707606.585793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756707606.585793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44445539906103293 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 4.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 17.74720365646575, "peer_score": 10.748779529965262, "coverage": 0.917433300194917, "relative_legacy_score": 0.26934467858452865, "weighted_coverage": 0.917433300194917, "spot_peer_score": 13.693592066176457, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 17.74720365646575, "peer_archived_score": 10.748779529965262, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.26934467858452865, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.693592066176457, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Google Trends is a free tool from Google that shows how often particular search terms are entered into Google relative to the total search volume across different regions and time periods. One of its main features is the “interest over time” graph, which is scaled from 0 to 100. In this graph, 100 represents the peak popularity of the term during the selected time range and location, meaning the point in time when searches for that term were at their highest. A 0 does not mean no searches occurred, but rather that the search interest was too low to register compared to the peak values. Because the values are relative, the numbers for a given day can shift as new data is added or as the overall scale is recalibrated—for example, a value of 40 on one day could later appear as 35 if the relative scaling changes. This effect can be reduced by specifying fixed start and end dates in the URL, which locks the scale for that chosen period and keeps the values consistent.\n\nThe current value of the topic “trump” at the time of writing this question compared to the last 30 days is 62; seen at [this url](https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-01%202025-08-31).\n\n`{\"format\":\"trends_interest_rises\",\"info\":{\"topic\":\"trump\",\"trend_start\":\"2025-09-01\",\"trend_end\":\"2025-09-11\",\"verification_url\":\"https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&tz=0&q=trump&date=2025-08-12%202025-09-11\"}}`" }, { "id": 39688, "title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "short_title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "url_title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "slug": "will-the-progress-party-secure-the-runner-up-position-in-seat-count-in-norways-167th-parliamentary-election", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:58.722761Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T12:09:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.731943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:59.021669Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T12:09:42Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39065, "title": "Will the Progress Party secure the runner-up position in seat count in Norway's 167th parliamentary election?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:58.723156Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T12:09:42Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.422614Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T13:39:42Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"aa9167ba-be59-4580-9410-adbc5b02d956\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The determination for this question centers on which political group attains the second-highest total of seats in the 167th session of Norway’s Storting, following the parliamentary election scheduled for September 8, 2025. Should the election for the 167th Storting not be conducted by February 28, 2026, the answer will default to \"Other\" regardless of any other developments.\n\nIf two or more parties, including the Progress Party (FrP), are tied for the second-largest seat tally, precedence will be given to the party whose official abbreviation appears earliest in alphabetical order. Only the seat totals attributed to the specified party or coalition will be considered in this assessment.\n\nResolution will rely on the seat distribution as reported by a consensus among reputable news organizations. In the event of conflicting information or uncertainty, the official figures published by the Norwegian government (such as those available at https://www.valg.no/en/) will serve as the definitive source.\n\nAll criteria and outcomes are strictly bound to the seat counts resulting from the aforementioned election and are not influenced by subsequent changes or unofficial reports.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39688, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756820083.0228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7740000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756820083.0228, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.7740000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22599999999999987, 0.7740000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.7353030303030302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 10.0, 0.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 5.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 15.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 56.192805092844296, "peer_score": 8.520355982536552, "coverage": 0.9572089305630436, "relative_legacy_score": -0.041440432507061205, "weighted_coverage": 0.9572089305630436, "spot_peer_score": 12.253480890417379, "spot_baseline_score": 63.040547148232356, "baseline_archived_score": 56.192805092844296, "peer_archived_score": 8.520355982536552, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.041440432507061205, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.253480890417379, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 63.040547148232356 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"aa9167ba-be59-4580-9410-adbc5b02d956\"}}`" }, { "id": 39687, "title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "short_title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "url_title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "slug": "will-the-ap-party-secure-a-larger-seat-count-than-any-other-group-in-norways-upcoming-parliamentary-contest", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:57.962124Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T02:10:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:03.251099Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:58.377998Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T02:10:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39064, "title": "Will the Ap party secure a larger seat count than any other group in Norway’s upcoming parliamentary contest?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:57.962552Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T02:10:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T16:10:34Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:02.937670Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T03:40:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"5fc8d45a-8762-4c69-b240-df82577551df\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "The determination for this question hinges on the official allocation of seats following Norway’s parliamentary vote, which is scheduled for September 8, 2025. The focus is exclusively on the total number of seats obtained by the Ap party in the 167th session of the Storting, compared to all other parties or coalitions.\n\nShould the Norwegian parliamentary election for the 167th Storting not be conducted by February 28, 2026, the answer will default to \"Other\" regardless of any prior indications.\n\nIn scenarios where Ap and one or more other parties or coalitions achieve an identical, highest seat total, the group whose standard abbreviation appears earliest in alphabetical order will be considered as having the greater count for the purposes of this question.\n\nResolution will be based on the seat distribution as reported by a consensus of reputable news sources. If there is any uncertainty or conflicting information, the official figures published by the Norwegian government (such as those available at https://www.valg.no/en/) will serve as the definitive reference.\n\nOnly the number of seats won by the specified party or coalition is relevant; no other factors will be considered.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39687, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756784025.93692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756784025.93692, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6890974025974026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 11.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 46.87185321886109, "peer_score": 10.243046768907393, "coverage": 0.8813047439080699, "relative_legacy_score": -0.023763558909528824, "weighted_coverage": 0.8813047439080699, "spot_peer_score": 10.627602509481036, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "baseline_archived_score": 46.87185321886109, "peer_archived_score": 10.243046768907393, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.023763558909528824, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.627602509481036, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"ae22d3ff-1375-4310-9708-eb7e1a4efef7\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome of this question, reference will be made to the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), as seasonally adjusted and published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The focus is on the percentage change from the previous month, specifically for August 2025, as reported to one decimal place (e.g., 0.4%).\n\nThe relevant data will be sourced from the BLS Consumer Price Index report for August 2025, which is expected to be made public on September 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time. The result will be based exclusively on the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted CPI-U figure as presented in this release. No alternative data or unofficial revisions will be considered.\n\nResolution will occur following the publication of the specified BLS report. The determination will use the value as stated in the official release, rounded to the nearest tenth of a percent, matching the BLS reporting standard. If the reported increase is 0.4% or greater, the answer will be 'Yes'; if it is less than 0.4%, the answer will be 'No.'", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39684, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757044382.570206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.194 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757044382.570206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.194 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.27049433106575965 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 9.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 5.0, 2.0, 3.0, 13.0, 1.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -100.62659953930978, "peer_score": 10.535145902881858, "coverage": 0.943644528521432, "relative_legacy_score": -0.01634985133028033, "weighted_coverage": 0.943644528521432, "spot_peer_score": 6.219741084894162, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "baseline_archived_score": -100.62659953930978, "peer_archived_score": 10.535145902881858, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.01634985133028033, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.219741084894162, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"ae22d3ff-1375-4310-9708-eb7e1a4efef7\"}}`" }, { "id": 39683, "title": "Is Jannik Sinner the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "short_title": "Is Jannik Sinner the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "url_title": "Is Jannik Sinner the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "slug": "is-jannik-sinner-the-2025-us-open-mens-singles-champion", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:53.832979Z", "published_at": "2025-09-01T18:08:17Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:04.762598Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:55.248416Z", "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:38:17Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:38:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T12:10:39Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T18:08:17Z", "nr_forecasters": 78, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39060, "title": "Is Jannik Sinner the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles champion?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:53.833379Z", "open_time": "2025-09-01T18:08:17Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-01T19:38:17Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-01T19:38:17Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T12:10:39Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:04.454487Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:38:17Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-01T19:38:17Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"a2d513f6-48b1-49b4-a87a-c86a448bbdb5\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination hinges on whether Jannik Sinner secures the title in the Men’s Singles competition at the 2025 US Open. A positive outcome is recorded exclusively if Sinner is officially recognized as the winner of this event, as confirmed by the tournament’s governing body. Should Sinner be eliminated, withdraw, or otherwise become ineligible to claim the championship under the official US Open regulations at any stage, the answer will be negative. The principal reference for verifying the result will be the official US Open website (https://www.usopen.org) with reputable news sources serving as supplementary confirmation if necessary. All criteria are assessed as of the conclusion of the tournament, with the final decision based on the status at that time. The evaluation period ends on September 7, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39683, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756754907.71102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.356 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756754907.71102, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 78, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.356 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.644, 0.356 ], "means": [ 0.44157692307692326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 5.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 0.0, 7.0, 0.0, 5.0, 1.0, 3.0, 7.0, 1.0, 2.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.22974956273522, "peer_score": 24.501446244727646, "coverage": 0.980914291275872, "relative_legacy_score": -0.011021078587427196, "weighted_coverage": 0.980914291275872, "spot_peer_score": 26.430454287022172, "spot_baseline_score": 36.513259345253, "baseline_archived_score": 34.22974956273522, "peer_archived_score": 24.501446244727646, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.011021078587427196, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.430454287022172, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 36.513259345253 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"a2d513f6-48b1-49b4-a87a-c86a448bbdb5\"}}`" }, { "id": 39682, "title": "Is Jonas Gahr Støre the individual who will next assume the office of Prime Minister in Norway?", "short_title": "Is Jonas Gahr Støre the individual who will next assume the office of Prime Minister in Norway?", "url_title": "Is Jonas Gahr Støre the individual who will next assume the office of Prime Minister in Norway?", "slug": "is-jonas-gahr-stre-the-individual-who-will-next-assume-the-office-of-prime-minister-in-norway", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:53.072881Z", "published_at": "2025-09-02T04:42:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:05.250778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:53.420344Z", "comment_count": 78, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T06:12:02Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T06:12:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:10:33Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T04:42:02Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39059, "title": "Is Jonas Gahr Støre the individual who will next assume the office of Prime Minister in Norway?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:53.073263Z", "open_time": "2025-09-02T04:42:02Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-02T06:12:02Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-02T06:12:02Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-10T00:10:33Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:04.963255Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-02T06:12:02Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-02T06:12:02Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"e27375bf-1676-42a0-a751-437643fe21d0\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination hinges on which person is officially instated as Prime Minister by the King of Norway, acting in the Council of State, subsequent to the 2025 parliamentary election. Should the King refrain from issuing a new royal decree—such as in scenarios where the current government remains in place—the individual holding the Prime Ministerial post at the moment the King designates ministers for the incoming cabinet will be identified as the answer.\n\nIn circumstances where the existing Prime Minister and their cabinet are publicly recognized by a consensus of reputable news sources as having secured another term without necessitating a fresh royal appointment, this will be treated as confirmation for resolution purposes.\n\nIf, by the close of December 31, 2025, no new administration has been established, the most recently officially appointed permanent Prime Minister will be selected as the outcome.\n\nEligibility is restricted to those who assume the Prime Ministership as a direct consequence of the election; individuals serving in an acting, interim, or caretaker capacity—including those temporarily filling the role under Norway’s incapacity provisions—are excluded from consideration.\n\nPrimary verification will rely on official communications from the Norwegian government, with corroboration from a consensus of established media outlets if necessary.\n\nRelevant to the 2025 parliamentary election, this question’s assessment is based on developments up to and including September 8, 2025, at 00:00 UTC.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39682, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756791471.399618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756791471.399618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6154740259740256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 1.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 21.0, 2.0, 1.0, 3.0, 1.0, 11.0, 0.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 34.006152093406435, "peer_score": 9.256115654425761, "coverage": 0.9597603820429906, "relative_legacy_score": 0.014729907782872283, "weighted_coverage": 0.9597603820429906, "spot_peer_score": 10.249101048975842, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 34.006152093406435, "peer_archived_score": 9.256115654425761, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.014729907782872283, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.249101048975842, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"e27375bf-1676-42a0-a751-437643fe21d0\"}}`" }, { "id": 39681, "title": "Is Carlos Alcaraz the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles Champion?", "short_title": "Is Carlos Alcaraz the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles Champion?", "url_title": "Is Carlos Alcaraz the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles Champion?", "slug": "is-carlos-alcaraz-the-2025-us-open-mens-singles-champion", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:52.205315Z", "published_at": "2025-09-03T05:37:13Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:05.769393Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:52.703323Z", "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T07:07:13Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T07:07:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T12:10:39Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T05:37:13Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39058, "title": "Is Carlos Alcaraz the 2025 US Open Men’s Singles Champion?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:52.205724Z", "open_time": "2025-09-03T05:37:13Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-03T07:07:13Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-03T07:07:13Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-09T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-08T12:10:39Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:05.454328Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-03T07:07:13Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-03T07:07:13Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bdb92f3f-b882-440c-9784-41b4160e07c3\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "Determination hinges on whether Carlos Alcaraz secures the title in the Men’s Singles competition at the 2025 US Open. A positive outcome is recorded exclusively if he emerges as the official winner of this event. Should any circumstance arise—such as elimination, withdrawal, or disqualification—that renders him ineligible to claim the championship under the tournament’s regulations, the answer will be negative. Verification will rely primarily on the official US Open website (https://www.usopen.org) with supplementary confirmation from reputable news outlets if necessary. The evaluation period concludes at 00:00 UTC on September 7, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39681, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756881046.75457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756881046.75457, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 81, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.34 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4073209876543209 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 3.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 4.0, 2.0, 3.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 3.0, 2.0, 11.0, 1.0, 5.0, 0.0, 0.0, 10.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -37.63501586444156, "peer_score": 9.87817462323434, "coverage": 0.9740250762745185, "relative_legacy_score": -0.006014154775916228, "weighted_coverage": 0.9740250762745185, "spot_peer_score": 8.470383473627916, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": -37.63501586444156, "peer_archived_score": 9.87817462323434, "relative_legacy_archived_score": -0.006014154775916228, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.470383473627916, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"bdb92f3f-b882-440c-9784-41b4160e07c3\"}}`" }, { "id": 39680, "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a 2.9% annual rise for the period ending August 2025?", "short_title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a 2.9% annual rise for the period ending August 2025?", "url_title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a 2.9% annual rise for the period ending August 2025?", "slug": "will-the-consumer-price-index-reflect-a-29-annual-rise-for-the-period-ending-august-2025", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:51.179265Z", "published_at": "2025-09-04T17:59:21Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:06.257232Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:51.702563Z", "comment_count": 87, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:29:21Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:29:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T16:10:38Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T17:59:21Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39057, "title": "Will the Consumer Price Index reflect a 2.9% annual rise for the period ending August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:51.179754Z", "open_time": "2025-09-04T17:59:21Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-04T19:29:21Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-04T19:29:21Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T16:10:38Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:05.972270Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:29:21Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-04T19:29:21Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"99a2bfa6-133e-40ed-8698-0ee7c7882e6c\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "To determine the outcome of this question, reference will be made to the official Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the twelve months concluding in August 2025. The relevant data, which excludes seasonal adjustments, will be sourced from the BLS’s monthly CPI news release, accessible at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm. The scheduled publication date for the August 2025 report is September 11, 2025, at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, and the result will be established based on the information provided in this release.\n\nThe assessment will focus on the reported percentage change in the CPI over the specified twelve-month interval, as presented to a single decimal place (for example, 2.9%), in accordance with the BLS’s standard reporting format. The figure cited in the August 2025 release will be the sole determinant for resolving this question. No seasonal adjustment or alternative data sources will be considered. The resolution will occur promptly following the official release of the relevant BLS report.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39680, "aggregations": { "unweighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757013853.525105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757013853.525105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3065 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6935, 0.3065 ], "means": [ 0.33331037414965997 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 2.0, 8.0, 0.0, 1.0, 4.0, 0.0, 9.0, 1.0, 2.0, 1.0, 1.0, 12.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 3.0, 1.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.0, 3.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 2.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -61.04904329834298, "peer_score": 16.781480603921125, "coverage": 0.9511387222343023, "relative_legacy_score": 0.04635876656966737, "weighted_coverage": 0.9511387222343023, "spot_peer_score": 4.050331686411006, "spot_baseline_score": -70.60410209713056, "baseline_archived_score": -61.04904329834298, "peer_archived_score": 16.781480603921125, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.04635876656966737, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.050331686411006, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -70.60410209713056 }, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"de6b29b2-1b87-42a7-8e35-8c2830941ea3\"}}`", "resolution_criteria": "This question concerns the distribution of seats resulting from Norway’s parliamentary election, set for September 8, 2025. The inquiry is resolved by determining whether the Ap party finishes with the second-highest number of seats in the 167th Storting, based strictly on the official seat counts.\n\nIf the election for the 167th Storting has not taken place by February 28, 2026, the answer will be recorded as \"Other.\"\n\nShould Ap and any other party or coalition be tied for the second-greatest seat count, the group whose standard abbreviation is alphabetically first will be selected.\n\nOnly the number of seats attributed to the named party or coalition is relevant for this determination.\n\nResolution will rely on the seat allocation as reported by a consensus of reputable sources. 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InfiniteGames is a forecasting tournament running on the Bittensor blockchain.\n\n`{\"format\":\"ig_question_sync\",\"info\":{\"event_id\":\"de6b29b2-1b87-42a7-8e35-8c2830941ea3\"}}`" }, { "id": 39678, "title": "Will the August 2025 seasonally adjusted CPI-U monthly percentage change be 0.3%?", "short_title": "Will the August 2025 seasonally adjusted CPI-U monthly percentage change be 0.3%?", "url_title": "Will the August 2025 seasonally adjusted CPI-U monthly percentage change be 0.3%?", "slug": "will-the-august-2025-seasonally-adjusted-cpi-u-monthly-percentage-change-be-03", "author_id": 276265, "author_username": "AutoQuestionsBot", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:49.707161Z", "published_at": "2025-09-05T04:23:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T02:42:07.473419Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:50.081710Z", "comment_count": 90, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T05:53:54Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T05:53:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T04:14:06Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T04:23:54Z", "nr_forecasters": 85, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32827, "type": "question_series", "name": "MiniBench - 2025-09-01", "slug": "minibench-2025-09-01", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": "1000.00", "start_date": "2025-09-01T04:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-20T04:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-05T21:47:39Z", "html_metadata_json": { "description": "MiniBench Tournament is a 2-week reoccurring bot-only competition where bot-makers attempt to push AI to its limits in predicting future events in order to benchmark AI capabilities." }, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-08-31T21:51:15.639086Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-28T20:43:08.805094Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 39055, "title": "Will the August 2025 seasonally adjusted CPI-U monthly percentage change be 0.3%?", "created_at": "2025-09-01T00:54:49.707557Z", "open_time": "2025-09-05T04:23:54Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-09-05T05:53:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-09-05T05:53:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-13T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-12T04:14:06Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-14T02:42:06.996763Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-05T05:53:54Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-05T05:53:54Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "spot_peer", "default_aggregation_method": "unweighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is synced with a question from InfiniteGames. 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