Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=260
{ "count": 5525, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=240", "results": [ { "id": 37432, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Ohio enact legislation expanding its verification requirements of a voter's citizenship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-ohio-enact-legislation-expanding-its-verification-requirements-of-a-voters-citizenship", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:35.902969Z", "published_at": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:43:13.922009Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36792, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Ohio enact legislation expanding its verification requirements of a voter's citizenship?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:35.902969Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T15:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T15:20:02.740672Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Ohio Senate: [Gavarone, Brenner Introduce Bill to Require Proof of Citizenship to Vote](https://ohiosenate.gov/members/theresa-gavarone/news/gavarone-brenner-introduce-bill-to-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the state of Ohio enacts legislation requiring voters to provide proof of US citizenship beyond the requirements at the time of this question, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Any subset of voters being required to provide such proof would count (for example if it only applied to first-time voter registrants or creating a new requirement for mail-in voters). An example of a bill that would count is [Senate Bill 153](https://www.legislature.ohio.gov/legislation/136/sb153). This question resolves upon enactment; therefore other questions such as when the legislation takes effect or whether it survives court challenges and is implemented is immaterial to this question's resolution. Please note that under Ohio law, a bill is considered enacted \"after both houses have passed and agreed on identical bills.\" ([Source](https://www.lsc.ohio.gov/assets/organizations/legislative-service-commission/files/chapter-5-enacting-legislation-10021971.pdf))", "post_id": 37432, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746443748.793594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746443748.793594, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.44761263779183674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008934832410362489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608552681539503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404309120326557, 0.0, 1.1065212543265888, 0.0, 0.3109996625627898, 0.09133304969971341, 0.0, 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"spot_peer_archived_score": 0.7777075777130422, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Ohio Senate: [Gavarone, Brenner Introduce Bill to Require Proof of Citizenship to Vote](https://ohiosenate.gov/members/theresa-gavarone/news/gavarone-brenner-introduce-bill-to-require-proof-of-citizenship-to-vote)" }, { "id": 37431, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by ACC Central Kitchen LLC of pork bun products issued April 24, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usda-posted-recall-by-acc-central-kitchen-llc-of-pork-bun-products-issued-april-24-2025-be-closed-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:35.897278Z", "published_at": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:44:17.599399Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 83, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36791, "title": "Will the USDA-posted recall by ACC Central Kitchen LLC of pork bun products issued April 24, 2025 be closed before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:35.897278Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:38:37.166033Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 0.9, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "ConsumerAffairs: [Nearly 65,000 pounds of pork buns recalled for undeclared allergen](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/nearly-65000-pounds-of-pork-buns-recalled-for-undeclared-allergen-042525.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the status of the recall posted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) is changed from Active to Closed on [this page](https://www.fsis.usda.gov/recalls-alerts/acc-central-kitchen-llc-recalls-pork-bun-products-due-misbranding-and-undeclared) before July 1, 2025. If the recall is still shown as Active when the link is accessed by Metaculus on or after July 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37431, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746437423.329787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3775 ], "centers": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746437423.329787, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3775 ], "centers": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43333333333333335, 0.5666666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5348059653173538 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4327000768271672, 0.0, 2.425968272519082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0974418464598945, 0.0, 0.6647367894266478, 0.0, 0.0, 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"spot_baseline_archived_score": -20.645087746742632 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "ConsumerAffairs: [Nearly 65,000 pounds of pork buns recalled for undeclared allergen](https://www.consumeraffairs.com/news/nearly-65000-pounds-of-pork-buns-recalled-for-undeclared-allergen-042525.html)" }, { "id": 37430, "title": "Will Nigeria enact legislation exempting real estate transactions from VAT before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-nigeria-enact-legislation-exempting-real-estate-transactions-from-vat-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:35.891512Z", "published_at": "2025-05-05T06:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:44.568483Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 81, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T06:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36790, "title": "Will Nigeria enact legislation exempting real estate transactions from VAT before July 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-03T02:27:35.891512Z", "open_time": "2025-05-05T06:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T17:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-02T18:38:25.188076Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-05T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[FG: Tax reform bill to exempt real estate transactions from VAT, boost housing affordability in Nigeria](https://nairametrics.com/2025/04/25/fg-tax-reform-bill-to-exempt-real-estate-transactions-from-vat-boost-housing-affordability-in-nigeria/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the government of Nigeria enacts legislation exempting real estate transactions from the Value Added Tax (VAT) according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For example, the current iteration of the Tax Reforms Bill that is [being considered](https://brtnews.ng/tax-reforms-bill-to-exempt-real-estate-transactions-from-vat/) by the National Assembly, if it should be enacted, would count for purposes of this question.", "post_id": 37430, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746429534.959448, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], 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"scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 112, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:58:43.500355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:58:43.500355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36717, "title": "Will Kneecap perform at Glastonbury 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-01T18:32:40.597658Z", "open_time": "2025-05-19T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-23T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-06-30T21:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-06-30T21:28:21.537895Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-16T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Kneecap officially performs at Glastonbury 2025, scheduled for June 25 to June 29, 2025.", "fine_print": "* If Glastonbury 2025 does not take place before September 1, 2025 this question will be **annulled**.\n* Officially perform is defined as a planned performance as allowed by the festival organisers.\n* Any official performance is considered sufficient for this question. If, for example, one band member is banned from the festival, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the other member(s) perform under the name Kneecap.", "post_id": 37357, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750088991.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750088991.483107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 96, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8742015972522217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6246399232652096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013446030350544804, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005432350986704414, 0.0, 0.0023430504572772284, 0.0, 0.0007831332794337743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012812677089229594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00745418629536983, 0.0212261903199658, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018939011280897734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0067236276057129835, 0.5919456382250862, 0.004343564182950172, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010033693009389048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016828067029426297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5345297755217446, 0.0, 0.0003140657611517779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6698553662661938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020448973309364713, 0.0, 0.022227648901225576, 0.3805270152701288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00451041429692501, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04551310199086637, 0.0, 0.07765470851940062, 0.01893000449537379, 0.0, 0.03354609775351218, 0.022416477875092735, 0.05536195637519603, 0.0958682974717941, 0.1286413261105049, 0.026422351794421036, 0.039143517677046796, 1.833257086288448, 0.7386724971385698, 0.7404326785463791, 0.42584192862694914, 0.06542236154791992, 3.5394380954113807, 1.3072548358434943, 1.6329231513732414, 0.5389081720071665, 3.810877358451819 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.359729473354925, "peer_score": 17.708698212268764, "coverage": 0.9998908089504395, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998908089504395, "spot_peer_score": -1.24832487317564, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 43.359729473354925, "peer_archived_score": 17.708698212268764, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.24832487317564, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 968, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Kneecap](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecap_\\(band\\)) are an Irish band who have significantly risen in popularity since their formation in 2017. \n\nThe band is a trio consisting of: \"Mo Chara\" (Liam Óg Ó hAnnaidh), \"Móglaí Bap\" (Naoise Ó Caireallain), and \"DJ Próvaí\" (J. J. Ó Dochartaigh) whose songs consist of rap in a mixture of Irish Gaelic and English giving them a unique style.\n\nNamed after a [torture technique](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kneecapping) made infamous by the Irish Republican Army, the group are no stranger to controversies. Whilst most have been minor - complaints about profanity, drug use, violence in their songs, music videos and concerts, and promotion of Irish Republicanism - the band have come under a large amount of controversy resulting in cancelled performances which initially stemmed from a Coachcella performance where the band, \"described Israel's military action in Gaza as a US-funded genocide\". \n\nOn top of this, [two reports were made](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cly5r4gg7l6o) to the UK Metropolitan police:\n\n> \\[...] the band allegedly call for the death of Conservative MPs. Another seems to show a band member shouting \"up Hamas, up Hezbollah\". Both groups are banned in the UK and it is a crime to express support for them.\n\n> \\[...]\n\n> They claimed that footage where they appeared to say \"the only good Tory is a dead Tory\" had been \"taken out of all context\", and apologised for the hurt caused to the families of murdered MPs Jo Cox and Sir David Amess.\n\nThe band are [due](https://www.glastonburyfestivals.co.uk/line-up/) to play at Glastonbury 2025 - the UK's largest and most prestigious music festival - however there have been [calls](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/30/kneecap-should-be-banned-full-stop-after-dead-tories-video/) for the band to be removed from the lineup." }, { "id": 37354, "title": "Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?", "short_title": "Taurus missiles for Ukraine before July 2025", "url_title": "Taurus missiles for Ukraine before July 2025", "slug": "taurus-missiles-for-ukraine-before-july-2025", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:52.600682Z", "published_at": "2025-04-30T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:41:26.785008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-05T12:50:37Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T12:50:15Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32720, "name": "Ukraine Community", "type": "community", "slug": "ukraine", "description": "\n\nВітаємо на сторінці української спільноти прогнозистів.\n\nПеревіряйте свої здібності на питаннях з української економіки, політики, культури, спорту і науки.\n\n> Навіщо робити прогнози, ніхто ж точно не знає майбутнього?\n\nСаме так, ми не знаємо майбутнє, але ми можемо знати *ймовірність події* і збудувати від цього свої плани на різні сценарії.\n\nАле де взяти цю ймовірність події? Одна з ідей - це запитати *мудрість натовпу*. \n\nКоли багато людей незалежно оцінюють шанси якоїсь події, їх середня оцінка дуже часто краще ніж оцінка кожної окремої людини. \n\nВи можете наявно побачити це у таблиці кращих прогнозистів метакулуса. Наприклад у 2023-му році оцінка комʼюніті [зайняла сьоме місце](https://www.metaculus.com/leaderboard/?category=peer\\&year=2023\\&duration=1) серед 2525 учасників сайту.\n\nЗ першого травня 2025 тут стартує турнір з 10 питань з української тематики. \n\nЯкщо набереться достатньо учасників, в нього буде призовий фонд для топ-7. Якщо ні, то турнір буде \"розігрівочний\" без призів, а призовий проведемо іншого разу.\n\nУчасть безкоштовна. Приходьте і приводьте друзів, але не робіть мульті-акаунти на себе. Тут з цим суворо - перевірять і забанять. \n\nСпільнота у соціальних мережах:\n\n* [Телеграм](https://t.me/metaculusua)", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 3, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36714, "title": "Чи отримає Україна Тауруси до липня 2025? / Will Ukraine acquire Taurus missiles before July 2025?", "created_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:52.601104Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T12:50:15Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-02T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-03T11:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-03T11:22:36.163897Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "##### \\[English below]\n\nКрилата ракета [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) - це зброя повітряного базування німецького виробництва із заявленою дальністю польоту понад 500 км. Вона призначена для ураження «твердих і глибоко залягаючих цілей» (HDBT), таких як укріплені підземні бункери. Збройні сили України (ЗСУ) можуть використовувати її для ураження Керченського мосту, ключового логістичного маршруту для російських військ. Через велику дальність польоту ракета також може становити потенційну загрозу для Москви у разі її розгортання.\n\nЗа даними [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), у квітні 2025 року Фрідріх Мерц, призначений канцлером Німеччини, заявив, що він схвалить постачання ракет Taurus KEPD 350 в Україну за умови отримання згоди від європейських партнерів.\n\nНа тлі невизначеності щодо подальшої військової підтримки з боку США ці ракети можуть посилити здатність ЗСУ наносити удари на великі відстані. Однак, побоювання щодо ескалації конфлікту все ще можуть стримувати їх поставку.\n\n***\n\nThe [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced, air-launched weapon with a declared range of over 500 km. It is designed to destroy “hard and deeply buried targets” (HDBT), such as hardened underground bunkers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to target the Kerch Bridge, a key logistical route for Russian forces. Due to its long range, the missile could also pose a potential threat to the city of Moscow if deployed.\n\nAccording to [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), in April 2025, Friedrich Merz — Germany’s chancellor-designate — stated that he would approve the delivery of Taurus KEPD 350 missiles to Ukraine, pending agreement from European partners.\n\nAmid uncertainty over continued U.S. military support, these missiles could enhance the AFU’s capacity for long-range strikes. However, concerns about escalation may still deter their delivery.", "resolution_criteria": "##### \\[English below]\n\nЦе питання вирішується у **Так**, якщо між **5 травня 2025** року та **1 липня 2025** року з'являться достовірні повідомлення про те, що Збройні сили України (ЗСУ) мають щонайменше одну крилату ракету Taurus KEPD 350 або її модифікацію (детальніше див. у секції Fine Print), або про те, що ЗСУ здійснили запуск такої ракети.\n\nАльтернативно, воно вирішеться у **Так,** якщо ракета однозначно вказана на [сторінці, присвяченій військовій підтримці України](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992), на офіційному веб-сайті Федерального уряду Німеччини. Якщо ця сторінка буде недоступною, джерелом для вирішення питання може бути інша сторінка того ж офіційного сайту, за умови, що вона містить перелік військової техніки, поставленої Німеччиною в Україну.\n\nЯкщо жоден з цих критеріїв не буде виконаний до **1 липня 2025** року, питання вирішується як «Ні».\n\n***\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if, after **May 5, 2025** and before **July 1, 2025**, there are credible reports that the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) possess at least one Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile or its variant (see the Fine Print for details), or that the AFU have launched one.\n\nAlternatively, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the missile is unambiguously listed on the [page dedicated to military support for Ukraine](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992) on the German Federal Government’s official website. If this page becomes unavailable, another page from the same official website may be used as a resolution source, provided it includes a list of military equipment delivered to Ukraine by Germany.\n\nIf none of these criteria are met by **July 1, 2025**, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "##### \\[English below]\n\nРакета має бути робочою. Модель, надана для вивчення або реплікації, не може бути кваліфікована, так само як і ракета Taurus, яка впала в Україні після запуску іншою країною.\n\nІнша ракета дальнього радіусу дії буде вважатися варіантом ракети Taurus KEPD 350, якщо будуть виконані всі наведені нижче умови:\n\n* Це крилата ракета повітряного базування\n* Це ракета класу \"повітря-земля\"\n* Вона має німецьке походження\n* Вона має дальність польоту щонайменше 400 км (наприклад, варіант KEPD 350K-2)\n* Має боєголовку вагою щонайменше 100 кг\n* Офіційна назва ракети не обов'язково має містити слово Taurus.\n\nПоставка аналогічної ракети, виробленої третьою країною (наприклад, [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) не призведе до вирішення питання, навіть якщо вона була здійснена німецьким урядом.\n\n***\n\nThe missile must be operational. A model provided for study or replication does not qualify, nor does a Taurus missile that landed in Ukraine after being launched by another country.\n\nA different long-range missile will qualify as a variant of the Taurus KEPD 350 if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n* It is an air-launched cruise missile\n* It is an air-to-ground missile\n* It is of German origin\n* It has a range of at least 400 km (e.g., the KEPD 350K-2 variant)\n* It has a warhead of at least 100 kg\n\nThe missile’s official name does not need to include the word “Taurus.”\n\nDelivering a similarly capable missile manufactured by a third country (e.g. the [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) will not trigger the resolution even if delivery was done by the German government.", "post_id": 37354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750347382.349033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750347382.349033, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.21452532842211666 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.6422742015709613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.720922830823939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.0, 0.9409628304248254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49129737340348384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.04132567327012, "peer_score": 9.616147048452131, "coverage": 0.9947384601991875, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9947384601991875, "spot_peer_score": -0.5286877292350616, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001714, "baseline_archived_score": 43.04132567327012, "peer_archived_score": 9.616147048452131, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.5286877292350616, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001714 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "##### \\[English below]\n\nКрилата ракета [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) - це зброя повітряного базування німецького виробництва із заявленою дальністю польоту понад 500 км. Вона призначена для ураження «твердих і глибоко залягаючих цілей» (HDBT), таких як укріплені підземні бункери. Збройні сили України (ЗСУ) можуть використовувати її для ураження Керченського мосту, ключового логістичного маршруту для російських військ. Через велику дальність польоту ракета також може становити потенційну загрозу для Москви у разі її розгортання.\n\nЗа даними [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), у квітні 2025 року Фрідріх Мерц, призначений канцлером Німеччини, заявив, що він схвалить постачання ракет Taurus KEPD 350 в Україну за умови отримання згоди від європейських партнерів.\n\nНа тлі невизначеності щодо подальшої військової підтримки з боку США ці ракети можуть посилити здатність ЗСУ наносити удари на великі відстані. Однак, побоювання щодо ескалації конфлікту все ще можуть стримувати їх поставку.\n\n***\n\nThe [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced, air-launched weapon with a declared range of over 500 km. It is designed to destroy “hard and deeply buried targets” (HDBT), such as hardened underground bunkers. The Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to target the Kerch Bridge, a key logistical route for Russian forces. Due to its long range, the missile could also pose a potential threat to the city of Moscow if deployed.\n\nAccording to [*Ground News*](https://ground.news/article/merz-reaffirms-openness-to-taurus-delivery-eu-welcomes-german-change-of-course), in April 2025, Friedrich Merz — Germany’s chancellor-designate — stated that he would approve the delivery of Taurus KEPD 350 missiles to Ukraine, pending agreement from European partners.\n\nAmid uncertainty over continued U.S. military support, these missiles could enhance the AFU’s capacity for long-range strikes. However, concerns about escalation may still deter their delivery." }, { "id": 37353, "title": "Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?", "short_title": "Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?", "url_title": "Musk removed as CEO of Tesla before 2027?", "slug": "musk-removed-as-ceo-of-tesla-before-2027", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-05-01T14:57:22.591762Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T18:15:04Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-17T19:54:03.765931Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T18:18:20.433828Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-02T18:15:04Z", "nr_forecasters": 76, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36713, "title": "Will Elon Musk be removed as the Chief Executive Officer of Tesla before 2027?", "created_at": "2025-05-01T14:57:22.592181Z", "open_time": "2025-05-02T18:15:04Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:15:04Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n\nSee also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if before January 1, 2027, Elon Musk no longer holds the title *Chief Executive Officer* (or an unequivocally equivalent highest-ranking executive title) of Tesla, Inc.", "fine_print": "* “Removed” means he ceases to hold the CEO title (or equivalent as specified above) for any reason—including dismissal, resignation, permanent incapacity, or corporate restructuring—at any moment prior to the cut-off.\n* If Tesla eliminates the CEO title entirely, this question will resolve as **Yes** unless Musk clearly remains the highest-ranking day-to-day executive (e.g., is labeled “Technoking of Tesla” *and* no one else is CEO).\n* If Tesla merges, is acquired, or changes corporate form, the outcome is **Yes** only if Musk is CEO of the surviving Tesla-branded operating entity.\n* In the case that someone is named an interim CEO, this question will not resolve as **Yes** based on that alone, assuming that the understanding is that they are filling in for Musk on a temporary basis.\n\nThis question will resolve based on Tesla press releases or other credible sources.", "post_id": 37353, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752782032.500767, "end_time": 1753051743.822843, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752782032.500767, "end_time": 1753051743.822843, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.2443490864216669 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.543308524129585, 0.0, 0.18616056073700932, 0.4709786488164604, 0.0, 0.24261979922693655, 0.0, 0.35067473461578075, 0.010901356066657217, 0.0, 1.1762510409377245, 0.01461878999736412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7630922491315999, 0.053291731846804524, 0.5060368694271589, 0.0, 1.0949715773614188, 0.0, 0.8469646158620222, 0.0, 0.4070514190678404, 0.0, 0.3010722380634753, 0.2709163422902106, 1.5829130073283082, 0.0, 0.05025074089134997, 0.0, 1.1367513905347162, 0.0, 0.012678038170596699, 1.7125131496717976, 0.0, 0.1572066883677779, 0.0, 0.13208739417665719, 0.7672464128916316, 0.07561306189923878, 0.06190426115630072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2785879388871889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03211265593215371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23784222400992291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005344667174111027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07498827539092708, 0.08332611069851885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11036964111932797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10066260077593363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01698211627615795 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 145, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 1 May 2025 [The Wall Street Journal](https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/tesla-musk-ceo-search-board-0ce61af9?mod=hp_lead_pos1) reported that Tesla’s board had contacted executive-search firms to identify possible successors. Tesla Chair Robyn Denholm and Musk both called the story “absolutely false,” insisting the board remains “highly confident” in Musk’s leadership.\n\nSee also: [*When will these CEOs no longer be CEO?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/30589/ceo-departure-dates/)" }, { "id": 37349, "title": "Will the House of Representatives seat a legislator who was not certified as the winner of their election before July 1, 2027?", "short_title": "Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?", "url_title": "Will the House seat a legislator who was not certified winner before July 2027?", "slug": "will-the-house-seat-a-legislator-who-was-not-certified-winner-before-july-2027", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:44:34.812996Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:52:02Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T12:34:01.827810Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:52:10Z", 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"created_at": "2025-04-30T19:44:34.813358Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2027-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-07-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-07-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, President Donald Trump has [<u>asserted</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-donald-trumps-election-denial-claims-republican-politicians/story?id=89168408) the existence of rampant election fraud, but has provided [<u>little to no evidence</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) to back up these assertions. Following his election loss in 2020, Trump [<u>pressured numerous state officials</u>](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/point-4-evidence-trump-tried-convince-state-lawmakers-and-election-officials-alter-election-results) to challenge certified results on the basis of fraud and corruption. If a Trump-aligned majority controls the House, they could theoretically [<u>use</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33780) Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution to refuse to seat certified members or seat their own choices under disputed election claims.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before July 1, 2027, the House of Representatives seats an individual as a member who was not certified as the winner of their election by the [<u>relevant state authorities</u>](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1d-V0OQGaN7TF289Qy4L8ot1kaZBFLD8BExHNhvQituw/edit?gid=420665400#gid=420665400). \n\nIt will resolve as **No** if no such individual is seated by that time.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, the certified winner is the individual who has received an official certificate of election from the appropriate state authority. An individual is considered seated when they have taken the oath of office and are recognized as a member of the House of Representatives. This question pertains only to individuals elected to the U.S. House of Representatives.\n\nWe will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) for the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 37349, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752842031.389377, "end_time": 1753196704.225548, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752842031.389377, "end_time": 1753196704.225548, "forecaster_count": 95, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.0876223875733469 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.1312416942252375, 1.124549033959949, 2.1121821881012366, 0.27928667124549256, 1.3998817753053237, 1.8837776827226553, 0.38108257420351926, 0.8377299358995464, 0.0, 0.01161693045818606, 1.5870925712061892, 0.35736541197610094, 0.0003305530037031849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15407244940593723, 0.025628972875147066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004321255682073794, 0.019923756805303634, 0.17099134106271358, 0.20983336296795696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18571930234139705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5902259274400309, 0.0, 0.30035487117422893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2515297315657443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0105604232385152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42375495485046893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04790236451040508, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5008697425201692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, President Donald Trump has [<u>asserted</u>](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/timeline-donald-trumps-election-denial-claims-republican-politicians/story?id=89168408) the existence of rampant election fraud, but has provided [<u>little to no evidence</u>](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/widespread-election-fraud-claims-by-republicans-dont-match-the-evidence/) to back up these assertions. Following his election loss in 2020, Trump [<u>pressured numerous state officials</u>](https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/point-4-evidence-trump-tried-convince-state-lawmakers-and-election-officials-alter-election-results) to challenge certified results on the basis of fraud and corruption. If a Trump-aligned majority controls the House, they could theoretically [<u>use</u>](https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RL33780) Article I, Section 5 of the Constitution to refuse to seat certified members or seat their own choices under disputed election claims." }, { "id": 37348, "title": "Will the Department of Justice file an indictment against either of the former Trump administration officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?", "url_title": "Will DOJ indict Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor before January 1, 2026?", "slug": "will-doj-indict-christopher-krebs-or-miles-taylor-before-january-1-2026", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:39:22.181476Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:51:29Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T12:09:45.818304Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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officials, Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:39:22.181913Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before January 1, 2026, the Department of Justice (DOJ) files a federal criminal [indictment](https://thelawdictionary.org/indictment/) against Christopher Krebs or Miles Taylor, former officials from President Trump’s first administration.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if no such indictment is filed by that time.", "fine_print": "Only federal criminal indictments filed by the DOJ are considered.\n\nThis question will be resolved according to information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) before January 1, 2026.", "post_id": 37348, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752934819.477, "end_time": 1753117031.895244, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752934819.477, "end_time": 1753117031.895244, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.19 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.81, 0.19 ], "means": [ 0.2417939962967699 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2225519317664919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12804351164029554, 0.0, 0.6253616977963117, 0.0, 0.06018168915842613, 0.0, 0.8184987418370853, 0.8020596097204383, 0.9779079979324362, 0.42215674551130533, 0.0, 0.13747443227290793, 1.6776330614997166, 0.0, 1.8592519664797535, 0.39558774877875946, 0.7554658117724923, 2.2908693047600743, 0.07049165811994734, 0.2879019056547677, 0.0, 0.8460382388409197, 0.19602705878658344, 0.03977831981835343, 0.1941378799360505, 0.5486826211071292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023451987212490845, 0.0, 0.23701969683936608, 0.03688956624473945, 0.9461206906142233, 0.0013523717240138745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20966816097529098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008125528952671308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15342752658886483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699770170287534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5021859182392427, 0.0, 0.3704164410767862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004802654549584282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5214066260263298 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 173, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 9, 2025, President Donald Trump signed [<u>presidential</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-from-chris-krebs-and-government-censorship/) [<u>memoranda</u>](https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/addressing-risks-associated-with-an-egregious-leaker-and-disseminator-of-falsehoods/) directing the Department of Justice to investigate two former officials from his first administration: [<u>Christopher Krebs</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chris_Krebs) and [<u>Miles Taylor</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miles_Taylor_\\(security_expert\\)). Taylor, serving as a high-ranking Homeland Security official before his departure in 2019, revealed himself as the [<u>author</u>](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_Am_Part_of_the_Resistance_Inside_the_Trump_Administration) of a sharply critical [<u>op-ed</u>](https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/05/opinion/trump-white-house-anonymous-resistance.html) in *The New York Times* detailing internal resistance to Trump’s “misguided impulses.” In a memorandum and accompanying [<u>statements</u>](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/apr/09/trump-justice-department-critics) Trump accused Taylor of committing domestic espionage and treason. Taylor has since [<u>responded</u>](https://x.com/MilesTaylorUSA/status/1910071199042068916) to these allegations, criticizing the attack on dissenting views and further escalating tension between the two individuals. Similarly, Christopher Krebs, the former director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, faced intense scrutiny from President Trump for [<u>contradicting</u>](https://www.npr.org/2020/11/17/936003057/cisa-director-chris-krebs-fired-after-trying-to-correct-voter-fraud-disinformati) Trump’s assertion of 2020 election fraud and allegedly “suppress\\[ing] conservative viewpoints under the guise of combatting supposed disinformation”." }, { "id": 37347, "title": "Will the Department of Homeland Security revoke or suspend the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP) certification for an Ivy League university before September 1, 2025?", "short_title": "Will the DHS revoke or suspend SEVP for an Ivy League before September 2025?", "url_title": "Will the DHS revoke or suspend SEVP for an Ivy League before September 2025?", "slug": "will-the-dhs-revoke-or-suspend-sevp-for-an-ivy-league-before-september-2025", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", 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"range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [US Department of State](https://it.usembassy.gov/visas/niv/f-m/):\n\n> F and M visas are for persons who wish to study in the U.S. The “F” visa is for academic studies, and the “M” visa is for nonacademic or vocational studies.\n\nAs of April 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has [<u>threatened</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/us/harvard-kristi-noem-international-students/index.html) to revoke Harvard University's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP), which authorizes institutions to enroll international students on F and M visas. This threat stems from allegations that Harvard has created a \"hostile learning environment\" for Jewish students and has failed to adequately address antisemitism on campus. DHS has demanded that Harvard provide detailed records of international students' involvement in \"illegal and violent activities\" by April 30, 2025, warning that noncompliance would result in the automatic withdrawal of the university's SEVP certification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before September 1, 2025, the DHS formally revokes or suspends the SEVP certification of at least one university in the Ivy League, thereby preventing the affected institution from enrolling new international students under F or M visas.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if no Ivy League SEVP certification is revoked or suspended before that date.", "fine_print": "An announcement or notice of intent alone is not sufficient, the revocation or suspension must take effect.\n\nThe Ivy League includes the following institutions: Brown University, Columbia University, Cornell University, Dartmouth College, Harvard University, University of Pennsylvania, Princeton University, and Yale University.\n\nUnder the circumstance that a court blocks the revocation or suspension by the DHS, this question will also resolve as **Yes** if the revocation or suspension is enacted in defiance of said court order.\n\nResolution will be determined based on information published by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 37347, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752927226.066692, "end_time": 1753441587.476, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752927226.066692, "end_time": 1753441587.476, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.41776857338441437 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8334788931264816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06725432760272325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21695324208907182, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2144633865852523, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08513379411538498, 0.0, 0.004802010308214308, 0.0, 0.034166571748472256, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2787137353302727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8115493894106346, 0.0, 0.062047323239435744, 0.0026208098393045902, 0.0, 0.0991598257291094, 0.0, 0.037350175802999215, 2.023057990684574, 0.38896266765831033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9636259039187478, 0.0, 0.28276866264047956, 0.11510138539572264, 0.0, 1.2469120568131074, 0.5956380251215266, 0.15363062476929543, 0.001839023418757394, 0.34529856350586746, 1.8392434848942543, 0.0, 0.07282349883545862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5332718852735694, 0.3717525172919004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.058278641902317074, 0.1062520141467169, 0.16482953151796573, 0.0, 0.04445312502789519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007375172335998631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9016117395940255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003597028756780682, 0.0, 0.009080452771768967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012208548944264495, 0.0, 0.20871457320512446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8442492377349747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.05718238516403556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052640372796005884, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.23201409926898375 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 330, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [US Department of State](https://it.usembassy.gov/visas/niv/f-m/):\n\n> F and M visas are for persons who wish to study in the U.S. The “F” visa is for academic studies, and the “M” visa is for nonacademic or vocational studies.\n\nAs of April 2025, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has [<u>threatened</u>](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/16/us/harvard-kristi-noem-international-students/index.html) to revoke Harvard University's certification under the Student and Exchange Visitor Program (SEVP), which authorizes institutions to enroll international students on F and M visas. This threat stems from allegations that Harvard has created a \"hostile learning environment\" for Jewish students and has failed to adequately address antisemitism on campus. DHS has demanded that Harvard provide detailed records of international students' involvement in \"illegal and violent activities\" by April 30, 2025, warning that noncompliance would result in the automatic withdrawal of the university's SEVP certification." }, { "id": 37346, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "short_title": "Will WH admit 1 or more AP reporter or photog to media event per injunction?", "url_title": "Will WH admit 1 or more AP reporter or photog to media event per injunction?", "slug": "will-wh-admit-1-or-more-ap-reporter-or-photog-to-media-event-per-injunction", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:45.116537Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:27Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-07T20:38:36.001491Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.874427Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.929871Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false }, { "id": 32764, "type": "question_series", "name": "BLW POTUS Questions", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-04-28T14:38:37.196068Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T12:13:56.881245Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36708, "title": "Will the White House admit at least one AP reporter or photographer to an Oval Office media event before July 1, 2025, in compliance with Judge Trevor McFadden’s April 8 preliminary injunction?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T19:00:45.117025Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T01:22:55.209579Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-08T22:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, at least one journalist or photographer employed by the Associated Press (AP) is admitted to an Oval Office media event hosted by the White House, as evidenced by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) or confirmation from the Associated Press.\n\nIt will resolve as **No** if, before July 1, 2025, no AP reporter or photographer has been admitted to any such event.", "fine_print": "A media event refers to any scheduled or impromptu event in the Oval Office to which members of the press are invited to report or take photographs.\n\n“Admitted” means physically granted access to the Oval Office for the purpose of reporting or photography, not merely allowed on White House grounds.\n\nThe individual must be employed by the Associated Press and formally affiliated with the organization.\n\nEvidence may include but is not limited to:\n\n* Press pool reports listing AP personnel\n* White House press office access logs\n* Statements from the AP or other credible sources", "post_id": 37346, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746740295.562664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746740295.562664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.44768966856957315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232326753374705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1350166315751149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3507374953742156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5355087033617794, 0.0, 0.26027447991622393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2078317711451863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.07140076303461346, 1.5630005703856678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.053483974712060484, 0.7427863096759144, 0.0, 0.7827061049060935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.956608621956553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0109660933338958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038968642356904164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.949921721551882, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11980469871044437, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12026351477195975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1698461853777333, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7542630621875321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21127762784985343 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Trump administration [<u>began restricting</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/white-house-bars-associated-press-oval-office-air-force-one/) the Associated Press's (AP) access to Oval Office events on [<u>February 11</u>](https://www.ap.org/media-center/ap-in-the-news/2025/white-house-bars-ap-reporter-from-oval-office-because-of-ap-style-policy-on-gulf-of-america/), 2025, after the AP declined to adopt the administration's preferred term \"Gulf of America\" instead of \"Gulf of Mexico\" in its reporting. On April 8, 2025, U.S. District Judge Trevor McFadden issued a preliminary injunction ordering the White House to [<u>restore</u>](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c78je27x2v9o) the AP’s access to Oval Office press events. Despite the court order, AP reporters [<u>remain barred</u>](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/associated-press-reporters-blocked-oval-office-event-white-house/) from attending Oval Office events." }, { "id": 37345, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose significant federal price controls before Jan 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Will the Trump administration impose price controls?", "url_title": "Will the Trump administration impose price controls?", "slug": "will-the-trump-administration-impose-price-controls", "author_id": 112630, "author_username": "murbard", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-30T18:03:39.702670Z", "published_at": "2025-05-06T14:40:54Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-17T09:47:44.822860Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-06T14:44:34.666869Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T10:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36707, "title": "Will the Trump administration impose significant federal price controls before Jan 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-30T18:03:39.703099Z", "open_time": "2025-05-08T14:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-12T14:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question concerns the possibility that the current U.S. administration will implement federal price controls during its 2025–2029 term. Large-scale price controls, such as ceilings, freezes, or mandated pricing formulas, have been rare in U.S. history, with [notable instances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_controls#United_States) during World War II, the Korean War, and the 1971 Nixon wage-and-price freeze.\n\nAs of May 2025, the administration has already announced a broad package of tariffs, including blanket import duties and country-specific surcharges. Although some components have been partially moderated, the overall tariff load remains historically high. At the same time, GDP data indicates the U.S. economy is contracting, raising concerns about stagflation-like dynamics. In past episodes, particularly 1971, this combination of inflationary pressure and slowing growth led to direct federal intervention in price-setting.\n\nThis question asks whether similar conditions could result in the reintroduction of federal price controls at a significant scale during this term.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any point before January 20, 2029, the federal government imposes and maintains for at least 30 consecutive days a new price control policy that satisfies all of the following conditions:\n\n1. It is a binding constraint on nominal prices charged to private-sector buyers. This includes price ceilings, freezes, or mandated pricing formulas. It excludes purely advisory price targets, disclosure requirements, or controls that apply only to public procurement (e.g., VA, DOD).\n2. It applies to at least 40 states and explicitly preempts state-level pricing authority in affected sectors.\n3. Its economic scope is substantial, affecting goods or services comprising at least \\$100 billion in annual nominal private-sector transactions.\n4. It is newly implemented during the term, i.e., it's not a continuation, renewal, or incremental modification of a preexisting regulation or statutory framework in place prior to January 20, 2025.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** otherwise, including if only limited or geographically narrow controls are introduced, or if all qualifying policies are rescinded before reaching 30 days in effect.", "fine_print": "* \"Private-sector buyers\" includes business‑to‑consumer and business‑to‑business transactions for goods and services, but excludes wages/salaries.\n* The 30 days will count from the date of the implementation.\n* Any action with force of federal law, whether by statute, executive order, or agency rule, would qualify for this question.\n* The price control actually affecting prices is immaterial for this question. For example, a price ceiling that is higher than market prices and remains so for the whole 30 days would still resolve this question.", "post_id": 37345, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752745654.406627, "end_time": 1754216046.771, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752745654.406627, "end_time": 1754216046.771, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.63 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.37, 0.63 ], "means": [ 0.5725948838229332 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9625512841963142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48251097152452394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.6217039230042551, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.9381118225367869, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6656339507831206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question concerns the possibility that the current U.S. administration will implement federal price controls during its 2025–2029 term. Large-scale price controls, such as ceilings, freezes, or mandated pricing formulas, have been rare in U.S. history, with [notable instances](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Price_controls#United_States) during World War II, the Korean War, and the 1971 Nixon wage-and-price freeze.\n\nAs of May 2025, the administration has already announced a broad package of tariffs, including blanket import duties and country-specific surcharges. Although some components have been partially moderated, the overall tariff load remains historically high. At the same time, GDP data indicates the U.S. economy is contracting, raising concerns about stagflation-like dynamics. In past episodes, particularly 1971, this combination of inflationary pressure and slowing growth led to direct federal intervention in price-setting.\n\nThis question asks whether similar conditions could result in the reintroduction of federal price controls at a significant scale during this term." }, { "id": 37328, "title": "Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?", "short_title": "India-Pakistan conflict with 100 deaths in May/June 2025?", "url_title": "India-Pakistan conflict with 100 deaths in May/June 2025?", "slug": "india-pakistan-conflict-with-100-deaths-in-mayjune-2025", "author_id": 121058, "author_username": "Sourian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-29T19:37:58.377687Z", "published_at": "2025-05-05T14:55:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-05T11:26:14.885693Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-05T14:57:39.452327Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 256, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:58:43.500355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32726, "type": "tournament", "name": "Metaculus Cup", "slug": "metaculus-cup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/mcup-banner.jpg", "prize_pool": "5000.00", "start_date": "2025-05-02T17:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-09-04T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-09-01T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-04-06T16:32:45.695901Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:58:43.500355Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36700, "title": "Will conflict between India and Pakistan result in 100 deaths in May or June 2025?", "created_at": "2025-04-29T19:37:58.378121Z", "open_time": "2025-05-06T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-07T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-14T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-05T10:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-05T11:26:14.852071Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-06T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On [22 April 2025, near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack), in Indian administered Kashmir, militants killed 26 individuals in an attack. Following the attack, India, and Pakistan engaged in [hostile diplomatic measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_standoff) aimed at each other. Starting on the night of 24-25 April 2025, [skirmishes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes), and exchanges of gunfire reportedly started along the Line of Control.\n\nThe event is a part of the broader [Kashmir conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashmir_conflict), which started after the partition of India in 1947. Both of the countries claim sovereignty over each other's de facto territory in the area. Tensions restarted after India [revoked the autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revocation_of_the_special_status_of_Jammu_and_Kashmir) of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if military conflict between India and Pakistan results in at least 100 deaths after May 1 and before July 1, 2025, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).\n\nIndependent estimates of the number of deaths will be prioritised in resolving this question. These may include cases where an independent organisation has reviewed and explicitly endorsed one side's death figures. If no such estimates are available or if they are judged by Metaculus to be in error, this question will resolve according to each side's count of their own dead.", "fine_print": "* The deaths have to occur in Indian and/or Pakistani territory, as demarcated by their internationally recognised state borders and the [Line of Control](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_of_Control). Deaths in disputed territories between India and Pakistan will be included. \n* The deaths have to be caused by the overtly flagged military forces of India, Pakistan, and/or their explicit allies in the conflict.\n* The conflict need not involve Indian forces within the borders of Pakistan or vice-versa, cross-border missile or ballistic attacks are sufficient.\n* The deaths must be caused by [kinetic attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action), using weaponry or physical violence. A cyberattack would not count, even one resulting in deaths.\n* In case of conflicting information between sources, Metaculus might wait until the end of the tournament to resolve this question or might make a determination as to which sources should contribute to its resolution.", "post_id": 37328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749225316.910172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749225316.910172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 234, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.036678076806865814 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.405206331856604, 7.724836833268318, 6.194317454955284, 3.6444523038303216, 0.3151460522758734, 2.60268627550793, 0.07950327574133695, 0.24357225659808646, 0.7461223036700515, 0.07406796164998118, 0.18778368434301967, 0.1989336752981295, 0.024204380785985396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1125603881207744, 0.011277379637214612, 0.0012374118804973455, 0.0, 0.01760625004084847, 0.7416744798496708, 0.0, 0.012421251705140371, 0.054817694800041984, 0.0, 0.20426213721824998, 0.0005973241263059863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004815890959623739, 0.026379851760782072, 0.2832601082154617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021465102718242336, 0.0, 0.005262321921676929, 0.0, 0.009852990274056827, 0.005027325948520069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0062466472386943465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028711431476141674, 0.00017809462167642137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001959431296248472, 0.002121816447274001, 0.0026953505169471717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08025904568829471, 0.0010375337589913043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017457317784687022, 0.00038883706591765925, 4.10423491570238e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019128492783116098, 0.00030783211959282465, 0.0036811209475650806, 0.0, 0.0014705862423306441, 0.0027623604046003417, 0.0, 0.024568168679523515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011142701952950104, 5.9514285728829993e-05, 0.0, 2.2220776112164604e-05, 0.0, 0.0019938826204229437, 0.0, 0.0002157470415750376, 0.0002492489053821384, 0.0, 0.0031876817101863485, 3.180219310229071e-05, 0.000721050924730193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002120512482914684, 0.0004925508800658968, 0.0, 0.0008187061156230388, 0.012021730514350753 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 20.825807688723742, "peer_score": 69.0756378415993, "coverage": 0.9999941933766604, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999941933766604, "spot_peer_score": 34.75764847262976, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 20.825807688723742, "peer_archived_score": 69.0756378415993, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.75764847262976, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2351, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On [22 April 2025, near Pahalgam](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Pahalgam_attack), in Indian administered Kashmir, militants killed 26 individuals in an attack. Following the attack, India, and Pakistan engaged in [hostile diplomatic measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_standoff) aimed at each other. Starting on the night of 24-25 April 2025, [skirmishes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_India%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes), and exchanges of gunfire reportedly started along the Line of Control.\n\nThe event is a part of the broader [Kashmir conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kashmir_conflict), which started after the partition of India in 1947. Both of the countries claim sovereignty over each other's de facto territory in the area. Tensions restarted after India [revoked the autonomy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Revocation_of_the_special_status_of_Jammu_and_Kashmir) of Jammu and Kashmir in 2019." }, { "id": 37307, "title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "short_title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "url_title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "slug": "will-an-attempt-be-made-to-fire-jerome-powell-before-the-end-of-his-term", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-27T13:49:30.155111Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:49:42Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T03:56:07.988107Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:50:03Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 131, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32723, "type": "question_series", "name": "Midterm Phase", "slug": "midterm", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:13:19.425592Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.929871Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.874427Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.874427Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36681, "title": "Will an attempt be made to fire Jerome Powell before the end of his term?", "created_at": "2025-04-27T13:49:30.155571Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-05-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-05-01T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n\nIn January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n\nIn a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n\nThe first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n\n> The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n\nA few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n\nHowever, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n\n> For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n\n> However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n\n> On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n\nThen on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n\nNo US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n\nSee also:\n\n* Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n* American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n* Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if President Donald Trump or the US government publicly states before May 1, 2026 that Jerome Powell is terminated, dismissed, or forcibly replaced (resignations or voluntary departures do not count) before his scheduled term end date of May 15, 2026, from either his role as Chair of the [Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed.htm) (FRB) or his role as Chair of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) (FOMC).", "fine_print": "This question resolves upon the qualifying announcement or public statement from Trump or the US government. Whether Powell actually leaves his role as FOMC Chair or FRB Chair before his current term expires is immaterial to this question's resolution. Therefore, potential interventions such as a court enjoining the termination will not prevent the question from resolving as **Yes**.\n\nStatements by Trump need not explicitly mention Powell being terminated. For example, naming Powell's immediate successor or thanking Powell for his service, as for example occurred with [Secretary of State Rex Tillerson](https://x.com/realdonaldtrump/status/973540316656623616) or [VA Secretary David Shulkin](https://x.com/realDonaldTrump/status/979108653377703936), would count, so long as it is clear the successor has been named as a result of a forcible replacement, and not as a result of Powell's voluntary resignation or departure. For the purposes of this question any resignation by Powell will be considered voluntary, including in cases where media reports suggest or confirm that he was pressured to resign.\n\nIf necessary, Metaculus will consult [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions) news media reports to assess the truth of the matter, and Metaculus may wait up to 30 days following the announcement of Powell's departure to determine if the departure was forcible or voluntary. If after 30 days Metaculus assesses that the available evidence is not conclusive, the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nAs stated in the Resolution Criteria, the relevant statement must be made publicly. Journalistic sources that are one or more steps removed from a non-public statement, such as reporting on private conversations or statements that occurred behind closed doors, will not count.\n\nIf Powell is removed as Chair of the FRB or the FOMC but remains on the Board of Governors, this question still resolves as **Yes**.", "post_id": 37307, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752897357.05688, "end_time": 1752951325.532039, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752897357.05688, "end_time": 1752951325.532039, "forecaster_count": 115, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2899566810207544 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.1983891235069146, 0.02780952012911644, 0.014363505976851015, 0.0015320254314408236, 0.07481097428115654, 0.36501985026885553, 0.19371427314846987, 0.3961959671351114, 0.8347907510768185, 0.7871870326253533, 1.3930777618947645, 0.6435830973458528, 0.1344560496937131, 0.005183194654965409, 0.0, 0.6386215205542991, 0.0007033164117141776, 0.0, 0.00025498252310941446, 0.0, 1.4679285709855188, 0.02414192568958004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06161406281997024, 2.3472163351872366, 1.431416398693858, 0.32234197973757966, 0.3765590323616767, 0.0, 0.4605620421153945, 0.0, 0.037159939231939595, 0.6604711985297208, 0.005696211318069074, 1.437193627943742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4579098916950087, 0.79000436117463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012286551676066843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00576447652330115, 0.04410366007396037, 0.6516972575656215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9543478582252622, 0.0001626670157522502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031946411982466436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006068793783218393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08755347494423875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2610681550947861, 0.3072558944501091, 0.0013594165629024298, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13822732960313366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018032107460590262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7405869312443492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1066157616260465 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 319, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jerome Powell, [Chair of the Board of Governors](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) of the Federal Reserve System also known as the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), was nominated by President Donald Trump in November 2017, and his nomination was confirmed by the US Senate the following January in a bipartisan 84-13 vote. In November 2021, Powell was re-nominated by President Joe Biden for second term, which passed the Senate 80-19. In addititon to his role as FRB Chair, Powell is also Chairman of the [Federal Open Market Committee](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fomc.asp) (FOMC), which determines the [fed funds rate](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/federalfundsrate.asp) (which impacts interest rates), and began serving both roles in February 2018. Powell's current terms for each role expires on May 15, 2026. \n\nIn January 2025, Trump was inaugurated for a second term. On April 2, 2025, he [announced](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberation_Day_tariffs) a massive expansion in America's tariffs on other countries, [described](https://www.cato.org/blog/trumps-tariffs-arent-reciprocal-are-massive-tax-increase-americans) by the Cato Institute as \"possibly even exceeding the notorious Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, which contributed to the Great Depression.\" \n\nIn a speech at the Economic Club of Chicago, Powell said the tariffs were \"significantly larger than anticipated,\" adding that the economic effects \"will include higher inflation and slower growth\" and that therefore the Federal Reserve would remain patient and see how everything played out before making any big adjustments to interest rates.\n\nThe first major sign of Trump's dissatisfaction with Chair Powell came the next day, on April 17, when Trump [posted](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1912827529133539730) (emphasis added): \n\n> The ECB is expected to cut interest rates for the 7th time, and yet, “Too Late” Jerome Powell of the Fed, who is always TOO LATE AND WRONG, yesterday issued a report which was another, and typical, complete “mess!” Oil prices are down, groceries (even eggs!) are down, and the USA is getting RICH ON TARIFFS. Too Late **should have lowered Interest Rates**, like the ECB, long ago, but he should certainly lower them now. **Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough!**\n\nA few days later, Trump [called](https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/114376239725335883) Powell a \"major loser,\" reiterating his demand that interest rates be lowered. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett [said](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/can-trump-fire-powell-term-end-federal-reserve-what-to-know/) the Trump Administration was studying whether Powell could be fired. Trump additionally said, \"If I want him out, he’ll be out of there real fast, believe me. I’m not happy with him.\" \n\nHowever, [according to CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/17/economy/trump-fed-chair-powell-termination/index.html):\n\n> For his part, Powell has pointedly noted that removing a Fed chair is “not permitted under the law,” and has said he intends to serve out the remainder of his term.\n\n> However, that legal protection, which comes as a result of the Fed’s status as an independent government institution, may be an open question. Trump has fired two Democratic members of the Federal Trade Commission, also a long-independent agency, arguing that their “continued service on the FTC is inconsistent with my administration’s priorities,” according to a Wall Street Journal report of a letter Trump sent to them.\n\n> On Wednesday, Trump fired two Democrats on the three-member board of the National Credit Union Administration, a federal insurer and regulator of credit unions. Todd Harper, one of the officials dismissed by Trump, said in a post on LinkedIn that his firing “is wrong.”\n\nThen on April 22, Trump [denied](https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/22/us/politics/trump-powell-fed.html) having any plans to fire Powell, with signs, for the moment, of deescalation. \n\nNo US president [has ever attempted](https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/could-trump-fire-powell-1.7515197) to fire a Fed chair, and legally members of the Board of Governors can only be removed for \"cause,\" which has long been interpreted as misconduct. \n\nSee also:\n\n* Brookings Institution (2019): [What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed chair Jerome Powell?](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-happens-if-trump-tries-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/) \n* American Enterprise Institute: [There’s Only One Way Trump Can Fix Powell’s Opposition at the Fed](https://www.aei.org/op-eds/theres-only-one-way-trump-can-fix-powells-opposition-at-the-fed/)\n* Axios: [Can Trump fire Fed chair Jerome Powell? Here's what to know.](https://www.axios.com/2025/04/17/trump-fire-jerome-powell-fed-humphreys-executor)" }, { "id": 37304, "title": "Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?", "short_title": "HHS show link between vaccines and autism?", "url_title": "HHS show link between vaccines and autism?", "slug": "hhs-show-link-between-vaccines-and-autism", "author_id": 243306, "author_username": "jack.andolina", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T21:23:44.793332Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T19:09:25Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-05T00:31:40.478476Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-02T19:11:21.564488Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T19:09:25Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 36678, "title": "Will any HHS study claim to show evidence of a link between vaccines and autism before January 21, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T21:23:44.793767Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T19:09:25Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-09T19:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Extensive studies, including large-scale epidemiological research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and independent researchers worldwide, have found no credible evidence linking vaccination to autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Major medical organizations — including the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the World Health Organization (WHO) — agree that vaccines are safe and not associated with autism.\n\nSecretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine critic, has promoted claims suggesting a connection between vaccines and autism despite the scientific consensus. In April 2025, Kennedy referenced an upcoming study that he claims will identify environmental causes for Autism.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 21, 2029, a study conducted, commissioned, or published by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) or any of its component agencies (including but not limited to the CDC, NIH, FDA, and HRSA) publicly claims evidence of a link between vaccination and autism.\n\nA study will be considered to have \"claimed evidence\" if the abstract, results, discussion, or conclusion sections state that their findings suggest an association, correlation, link, or causal relationship between any vaccine and autism spectrum disorders.", "fine_print": "* Both preprints and peer-reviewed publications are eligible.\n* Press releases, statements, or summaries alone are insufficient unless accompanied by a publicly available full study that matches the claim.\n* Studies concluding that no link exists or presenting inconclusive findings will not cause this question to resolve Yes.\n* \"Association\" includes statistically significant associations as reported by the study's authors.", "post_id": 37304, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751675489.801576, "end_time": 1758029469.784804, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751675489.801576, "end_time": 1758029469.784804, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.15040044811777842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7290582813411595, 0.3764295304079803, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.431191824343201, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.5584580948134545, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8954402878346359, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.7873956681964048, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3845920186873753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Extensive studies, including large-scale epidemiological research conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and independent researchers worldwide, have found no credible evidence linking vaccination to autism spectrum disorders (ASD). Major medical organizations — including the CDC, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the World Health Organization (WHO) — agree that vaccines are safe and not associated with autism.\n\nSecretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a long-time vaccine critic, has promoted claims suggesting a connection between vaccines and autism despite the scientific consensus. In April 2025, Kennedy referenced an upcoming study that he claims will identify environmental causes for Autism." }, { "id": 37303, "title": "Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "Trump closes NYSE or NASDAQ before January 20, 2029?", "url_title": "Trump closes NYSE or NASDAQ before January 20, 2029?", "slug": "trump-closes-nyse-or-nasdaq-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T16:17:21.181634Z", "published_at": "2025-05-01T15:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T12:44:32.200482Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-05-01T15:49:13Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 124, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.874427Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32722, "type": "tournament", "name": "POTUS Predictions", "slug": "POTUS-predictions", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/potus-banner0.5x.webp", "prize_pool": "15000.00", "start_date": "2025-03-28T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2029-01-20T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2029-01-03T00:00:00Z", "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-25T15:50:20.731169Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T14:44:57.874427Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false }, "question_series": [ { "id": 32724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Full-Term Phase", "slug": "full-term", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2025-03-28T14:15:19.589490Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-19T12:25:29.398807Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false } ] }, "question": { "id": 36677, "title": "Will the US government order the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) or NASDAQ to be closed before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T16:17:21.182079Z", "open_time": "2025-05-01T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-06T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [New York Stock Exchange](https://www.nyse.com/index) (NYSE) and the [National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq) are the two largest stock exchanges in the world by market capitalization, ranked 1st and 2nd respectively.\n\nBoth stock exchanges run year round, closing only on weekends and on recognized holidays such as Christmas Day and New Years day; or during National Days of Mourning, like when the late President Jimmy Carter passed away; or for extended periods of time in more exceptional circumstances such as:\n\n* World Wars 1 and 2.\n* Great Depression Banking Crisis.\n* September 11 Attacks.\n\nThe historical precedent for the above closures were to stabilize the markets by preventing large sell-offs and to stem panic. They have typically been executed in coordination with the US government, rather than a Presidential order for example.\n\nPresident Donald Trump, during both his first term and ongoing second term, has been a frequent commenter on the stock market and its governing institutions. Trump has [publicly called](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/powell-attempts-balancing-act-as-trump-tests-fed-s-autonomy) for current Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, something many observe as an infringement of the Federal Reserve's autonomy. Indeed, Trump has also had internal discussions on having [Powell removed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/23/business/trump-jerome-powell/index.html), which would be an unprecedented decision with no clear legal basis and something his closest advisors strongly advised against<sup>1</sup>. Trump has also [attacked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1834712936952349040) the SEC and the Nasdaq after halting trading of [Trump Media & Technology Group Corp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Media_%26_Technology_Group) (\\$DJT), a company majority-owned by Trump, due to volatility - a very normal procedure for any stock:\n\n> Why is NASDAQ halting the sale of DJT? What right do they have to do this? \\[...] Are they taking orders from the SEC, which, for political reasons, delayed us for an inordinate amount of time, therefore hurting the stock very badly? I am going to hold NASDAQ, and maybe the SEC, liable for doing what they are doing.\n\nMoreover, Trump has often [linked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1752035267274518696) stock market performance to government performance and success, but, in light of his tariff campaign, the stock market has performed poorly. Some social media personalities [have suggested](https://x.com/quantian1/status/1912906354332774483) that Trump could take extreme actions, such as closing markets, in the event market performance remains poor.\n\n***\n\n<small>1. [Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31045/powell-ceases-to-hold-fed-chair-before-2026/)</small>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 20, 2029, the US government orders the [New York Stock Exchange](https://www.nyse.com/index) (NYSE) or the [National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq) stock markets to be closed for one or more entire regularly-scheduled trading days.", "fine_print": "Note that stock market closures ordered for the following reasons will **not** be sufficient to resolve the question to **Yes**:\n\n* National Days of Mourning.\n* National Holidays.\n* Natural Disasters (e.g., hurricanes, volcanic eruptions etc.)\n\nClosures due to other reasons would be sufficient.\n\nRequests or pressure to close made by the government but without a formal order (for example, see the [1914 closure of the NYSE](https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1346\\&context=journal-of-financial-crises)) do **not** count.\n\nWhether an order is followed and subsequent challenges to the legality of such an order are immaterial, the question immediately will resolve when a qualifying order is made.", "post_id": 37303, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1752842661.943271, "end_time": 1757873542.100867, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1752842661.943271, "end_time": 1757873542.100867, "forecaster_count": 122, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.14361502951101277 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.28797469957306, 0.05178095989857914, 1.6148698025627064, 0.8911128312672848, 1.151258747337966, 0.7212359129537949, 0.8914033155056574, 0.6587818836688929, 0.06465194078948781, 0.37999357442594467, 2.007710686337054, 0.66611900245075, 0.008177265651473122, 0.5866290372923685, 0.8657878852025495, 0.042171754564126585, 0.0009856045077656645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028380691447699308, 1.1721107592610704, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07776125152625345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18927969359599078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3344947810307124, 0.0, 0.42856108743284066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4500438523821116, 0.0, 0.3883469729366727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005099186258927597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3695440257865344, 0.0008714422003912379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016290750488732433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7955614471184316, 0.0, 0.021617362531953087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026153914369260664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017503384492382118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41037643578188776 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [New York Stock Exchange](https://www.nyse.com/index) (NYSE) and the [National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations](https://www.nasdaq.com) (Nasdaq) are the two largest stock exchanges in the world by market capitalization, ranked 1st and 2nd respectively.\n\nBoth stock exchanges run year round, closing only on weekends and on recognized holidays such as Christmas Day and New Years day; or during National Days of Mourning, like when the late President Jimmy Carter passed away; or for extended periods of time in more exceptional circumstances such as:\n\n* World Wars 1 and 2.\n* Great Depression Banking Crisis.\n* September 11 Attacks.\n\nThe historical precedent for the above closures were to stabilize the markets by preventing large sell-offs and to stem panic. They have typically been executed in coordination with the US government, rather than a Presidential order for example.\n\nPresident Donald Trump, during both his first term and ongoing second term, has been a frequent commenter on the stock market and its governing institutions. Trump has [publicly called](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/powell-attempts-balancing-act-as-trump-tests-fed-s-autonomy) for current Chairman Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, something many observe as an infringement of the Federal Reserve's autonomy. Indeed, Trump has also had internal discussions on having [Powell removed](https://edition.cnn.com/2025/04/23/business/trump-jerome-powell/index.html), which would be an unprecedented decision with no clear legal basis and something his closest advisors strongly advised against<sup>1</sup>. Trump has also [attacked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1834712936952349040) the SEC and the Nasdaq after halting trading of [Trump Media & Technology Group Corp](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trump_Media_%26_Technology_Group) (\\$DJT), a company majority-owned by Trump, due to volatility - a very normal procedure for any stock:\n\n> Why is NASDAQ halting the sale of DJT? What right do they have to do this? \\[...] Are they taking orders from the SEC, which, for political reasons, delayed us for an inordinate amount of time, therefore hurting the stock very badly? I am going to hold NASDAQ, and maybe the SEC, liable for doing what they are doing.\n\nMoreover, Trump has often [linked](https://x.com/TrumpDailyPosts/status/1752035267274518696) stock market performance to government performance and success, but, in light of his tariff campaign, the stock market has performed poorly. Some social media personalities [have suggested](https://x.com/quantian1/status/1912906354332774483) that Trump could take extreme actions, such as closing markets, in the event market performance remains poor.\n\n***\n\n<small>1. [Will Jerome Powell cease to hold the office of Chair of the Federal Reserve before 2026?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/31045/powell-ceases-to-hold-fed-chair-before-2026/)</small>" }, { "id": 37268, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Muqtada al-Sadr's Alliance Towards Reforms party announce that it will participate in the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-july-1-2025-will-muqtada-al-sadrs-alliance-towards-reforms-party-announce-that-it-will-participate-in-the-2025-iraqi-parliamentary-election", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:12.877130Z", "published_at": "2025-05-03T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:18.443151Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 80, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T04:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } ], "default_project": { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false } }, "question": { "id": 36646, "title": "Before July 1, 2025, will Muqtada al-Sadr's Alliance Towards Reforms party announce that it will participate in the 2025 Iraqi parliamentary election?", "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:12.877130Z", "open_time": "2025-05-03T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T16:00:14.849815Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "basnews: [Sadr Rejects Iraqi President’s Plea, Reaffirms Election Boycott](https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/881132)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before July 1, 2025, the Alliance Towards Reforms announces that it will field candidates in Iraq's [2025 parliamentary elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iraqi_parliamentary_election).", "fine_print": "\"Alliance Towards Reforms\" refers to the \"**تحالف سائرون للإصلا**ح\" or \"سائرون\" coalition, party or movement headed by Muqtada al-Sadr, as decribed at [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Towards_Reforms). Name changes will not affect resolution.", "post_id": 37268, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746250222.136673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746250222.136673, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23205071515423076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018876485630930608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977580522073869, 0.5085907498631411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45555165592256447, 0.0, 4.564705927821894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6767391846895867, 3.1801877308871447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6609726698816549, 0.0, 1.5580780083035395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1267721828231063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04357855372192336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4274130675954733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "basnews: [Sadr Rejects Iraqi President’s Plea, Reaffirms Election Boycott](https://www.basnews.com/en/babat/881132)" }, { "id": 37267, "title": "Will Ethiopia receive a \"Level 4 – Do Not Travel\" travel advisory from the US State Department before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ethiopia-receive-a-level-4-do-not-travel-travel-advisory-from-the-us-state-department-before-july-1-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-04-26T05:58:12.871383Z", "published_at": "2025-05-02T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-03T15:42:40.376054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": null, "comment_count": 82, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2025-05-02T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32721, "type": "question_series", "name": "Q2 AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament", "slug": "aibq2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/aib-q2-banner.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2025-04-21T01:38:25Z", "close_date": "2025-07-11T18:43:55Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "meta_description": "", "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-03-22T19:06:55.820092Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T07:54:18.128484Z", "score_type": 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"2025-05-02T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-07-01T19:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-07-01T19:34:05.210425Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-03T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_max": null, "range_min": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Travel and Tour World: [Is Ethiopia Safe for Travel? Exploring Addis Ababa’s Rich Culture Amid New Travel Warnings in 2025 : What more you need to know](https://www.travelandtourworld.com/news/article/is-ethiopia-safe-for-travel-exploring-addis-ababas-rich-culture-amid-new-travel-warnings-in-2025-what-more-you-need-to-know/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the country of Ethiopia has received a Level 4 [travel advisory](https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/international-travel/International-Travel-Country-Information-Pages/Ethiopia.html) from the US Department of State before July 1, 2025,", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 37267, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746228841.247941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746228841.247941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.21385963544052503 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35187441874087827, 0.4274130675954733, 1.0802618555824728, 0.8338641184965645, 0.034903790217544556, 0.0, 0.0, 2.662652635296334, 0.0, 0.3082206783863093, 0.08934446028684764, 0.21896889103996162, 2.6275040033223847, 0.0, 0.9606036804502769, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7499106101257782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.024026818171893, 0.8394799688108832, 0.0, 0.6609726698816549, 0.0, 0.9545537474781285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.95897950741414, "peer_score": 0.41765152271113415, "coverage": 0.9863151166505284, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9863151166505284, "spot_peer_score": 0.6755864909954297, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 66.95897950741414, "peer_archived_score": 0.41765152271113415, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.6755864909954297, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 79, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Travel and Tour World: [Is Ethiopia Safe for Travel? 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