Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=260
{ "count": 5886, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=280", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=240", "results": [ { "id": 39003, "title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "short_title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "url_title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "slug": "will-tampa-florida-hit-100f-in-august-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-31T00:05:32.028371Z", "published_at": "2025-07-31T00:07:39Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.619438Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-31T00:08:35.872825Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T20:04:00Z", "open_time": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T21:24:32.762927Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32812, "type": "question_series", "name": "Metaculus Learning Academy", "slug": "learning", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/owl_only.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-07-30T06:00:00Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-29T21:17:26.402860Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T21:24:32.762927Z", "score_type": "comment_insight", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38337, "title": "Will Tampa, Florida hit 100°F in August 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-31T00:05:32.028722Z", "open_time": "2025-07-31T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-05T00:07:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-05T00:07:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-09-01T20:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-01T20:05:39.948684Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-08-31T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": null, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Fox 13 Tampa Bay: [Tampa hits 100 degrees breaking all-time temperature record](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/tampa-hits-100-degrees-breaking-211636662.html)\n\n> Record heat has hit Florida hard this weekend and Tampa Bay has now hit a new high temperature milestone. On Sunday, the temperature hit 100 degrees in Tampa at around 3:10 p.m., according to the National Weather Service.\n\n> The previous record of 99 degrees was set on June 26, 2020. This is the hottest it has ever been in Tampa since record-keeping began in 1890. In Tampa, a heat advisory remains in effect until 7 p.m. on Sunday.\n\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get and give feedback. We're all here to learn!", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 30, 2025 and before September 1, 2025, the National Weather Service at its Tampa International Airport weather station reports a daily temperature maximum of greater than or equal to 100° Fahrenheit (37.78° Celcius), according to data presented at the [Data Calendar for Tampa Int'l Airport](https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=FL_ASOS\\&station=TPA) at Iowa State Mesonet.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 39003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756629870.784758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756629870.784758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.12877287261092982 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.4755244208507132, 2.0020633396701255, 0.887332896049865, 0.49114657277085993, 0.24311673443421436, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5678900028155001 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 69.95095742962266, "peer_score": 112.92100195724618, "coverage": 0.9914752325236618, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9914752325236618, "spot_peer_score": 143.2627659705956, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": 69.95095742962266, "peer_archived_score": 112.92100195724618, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 143.2627659705956, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Fox 13 Tampa Bay: [Tampa hits 100 degrees breaking all-time temperature record](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/tampa-hits-100-degrees-breaking-211636662.html)\n\n> Record heat has hit Florida hard this weekend and Tampa Bay has now hit a new high temperature milestone. On Sunday, the temperature hit 100 degrees in Tampa at around 3:10 p.m., according to the National Weather Service.\n\n> The previous record of 99 degrees was set on June 26, 2020. This is the hottest it has ever been in Tampa since record-keeping began in 1890. In Tampa, a heat advisory remains in effect until 7 p.m. on Sunday.\n\nThis is a Metaculus Learning Academy question. Please feel free to post your rationale in the comments section and get and give feedback. We're all here to learn!" }, { "id": 39002, "title": "Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?", "short_title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia before 2026?", "url_title": "Will there be a deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia before 2026?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-deadly-clash-between-thailand-and-cambodia-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-30T18:12:49.430967Z", "published_at": "2025-07-30T20:28:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.565481Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-30T20:28:30.828750Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-30T21:28:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "question_series": [ { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T21:29:15.941032Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Current Events⚡", "slug": "current-events", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Gemini_Generated_Image_les722les722les7.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2025-06-19T16:05:02Z", "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-06-19T16:03:56.284047Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T21:29:15.941032Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38336, "title": "Will there be another deadly clash between Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more fatalities, before 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-30T18:12:49.431356Z", "open_time": "2025-07-30T21:28:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-01T20:28:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-01T20:28:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After a brief border conflict killing at least 20 military personnel on both sides, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on July 28, 2025, which they [reaffirmed](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-ceasefire-china-brokered-1970718e765717be6f7e3f69e0c006f3) two days later. Despite the ceasefire, skirmishes continued, including an [incident](https://en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/localnews/62630-2025-07-30-08-31-00.html) in which up to 20 Cambodian troops were captured and possibly two killed on July 30, 2025. According to [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-cambodia-thailand-ceasefire-hold/a-73448995):\n\n> Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Bangkok, said Monday's truce could take hold — as long as both sides \"recognize their interests are better served by a ceasefire than further fighting.\"\n\n> He said the deal could hit some snags over the details, though, including how exactly to monitor the ceasefire, which has yet to be worked out in full.\n\n> Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has offered to coordinate a monitoring team. But Wheeler says neither side is keen to host monitors from other countries.\n\n> \"There was a plan to introduce Indonesian observers under ASEAN auspices after fighting in 2011, but it never happened,\" he said. Even so, he added, \"both militaries have in the past demonstrated a capacity to de-escalate after earlier rounds of fighting.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after July 31, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, there is a deadly clash between the military forces of Thailand and Cambodia, resulting in three or more total fatalities between both sides, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "To count, a clash must either be [kinetic](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinetic_military_action) (using explosive weaponry) or involve physical violence such as the close-quarters combat that occurred at[ Galwan Valley](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) between forces of India and China in June 2020. Non-kinetic or non-physical actions such as a cyberattack would not count, even ones resulting in deaths.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “military forces” means\n\n* personnel of the Royal Thai Armed Forces\n* personnel of the Royal Cambodian Armed Forces\n* law‑enforcement personnel of either state\n* or any paramilitary or militia group allied with any of the above - for example, Thahan Phran (Thai Rangers).", "post_id": 39002, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757060618.53658, "end_time": 1757693939.819, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757060618.53658, "end_time": 1757693939.819, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.3329528959925676 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1353352832366126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6530495812653183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.2748939786700481, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After a brief border conflict killing at least 20 military personnel on both sides, Thailand and Cambodia agreed to a ceasefire on July 28, 2025, which they [reaffirmed](https://apnews.com/article/thailand-cambodia-ceasefire-china-brokered-1970718e765717be6f7e3f69e0c006f3) two days later. Despite the ceasefire, skirmishes continued, including an [incident](https://en.freshnewsasia.com/index.php/en/localnews/62630-2025-07-30-08-31-00.html) in which up to 20 Cambodian troops were captured and possibly two killed on July 30, 2025. According to [Deutsche Welle](https://www.dw.com/en/will-the-cambodia-thailand-ceasefire-hold/a-73448995):\n\n> Matthew Wheeler, a senior analyst for the International Crisis Group in Bangkok, said Monday's truce could take hold — as long as both sides \"recognize their interests are better served by a ceasefire than further fighting.\"\n\n> He said the deal could hit some snags over the details, though, including how exactly to monitor the ceasefire, which has yet to be worked out in full.\n\n> Malaysia, as ASEAN chair, has offered to coordinate a monitoring team. But Wheeler says neither side is keen to host monitors from other countries.\n\n> \"There was a plan to introduce Indonesian observers under ASEAN auspices after fighting in 2011, but it never happened,\" he said. Even so, he added, \"both militaries have in the past demonstrated a capacity to de-escalate after earlier rounds of fighting.\"" }, { "id": 38995, "title": "Will any part of California's Prop 12 or Related Measures be nullified before January 20th, 2029?", "short_title": "Prop 12 Nullified By Jan. 20th, 2029?", "url_title": "Prop 12 Nullified By Jan. 20th, 2029?", "slug": "prop-12-nullified-by-jan-20th-2029", "author_id": 270917, "author_username": "Gapetheape", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-30T15:10:46.347700Z", "published_at": "2025-08-12T05:26:03Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.858999Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-12T05:33:01.203055Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-08-13T05:26:03Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32766, "name": "Jeffrey Maxim's Community Page", "type": "community", "slug": "dorsalheart", "description": "Focused on events that could influence animal welfare theories of change directly as well as second order, third order, and so on affects.  \n\nGoogle Sheet of all AW questions: ([sheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VM4SJusP2Eopibhy_InqFu6r5ApugREBvd1INd7j92k/edit?gid=1761708216#gid=1761708216))", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 0, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 38333, "title": "Will any part of California's Prop 12 or Related Measures be nullified before January 20th, 2029?", "created_at": "2025-07-30T15:10:46.348118Z", "open_time": "2025-08-13T05:26:03Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-17T05:26:03Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-17T05:26:03Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-21T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Prop 12 is one of the largest and most successful animal welfare laws in the United States, and has been a consistent target of the Trump administration.\n\nIn July, 2025 the Department of Justice (DOJ) [filed a lawsuit](https://sentientmedia.org/trump-suing-to-overturn-prop-12/) against the state of California over its animal welfare laws - Prop 12, AB1437, and Prop 2 - arguing that it violated the Egg Products Inspection Act (EPIA). DOJ's main argument insists that California's laws disrupt uniformity of egg regulations around the country, which is a key part of EPIA. This argument primarily hinges on the legal definitions of EPIA's definitions of \"condition\" and \"quality\", but there is also a separate argument about labeling.\n\nAnother threat to the the law is the inclusion of provisions that invalidate Prop 12 in the coming renewal of the 2023 Farm Bill later this year. (Farm Bill tracker [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/issues/farm-policy/the-latest-updates-on-the-2025-farm-bill/), and explainer [<u>here </u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/farmbills/)and [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/our-work/farm-bill/))\n\n“Challenged Provisions: Specifically, the lawsuit challenges Proposition 12, Proposition 2 and AB 1437, all of which are provisions of California law dictating either living conditions for egg laying hens, the sale of eggs and egg products from those hens, or both.”\n\n* Prop 12 \n * “It combined aspects of the two previous laws, requiring California farmers to provide a minimum amount of square feet to egg-laying hens, veal calves, and breeding pigs, while also requiring that products sold within the state be traceable to animals living in similarly sized areas. \n * Note: “The sales provisions of “Prop 12” were challenged in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, a case that made its way to the Supreme Court of the United States. The Court ruled that the California law was constitutional and allowed it to go into effect.\n* Prop 2\n * “covered animals located in the state of California could not be prevented from lying down, standing up and fully extending its limbs or turning around freely.\n* AB 1437\n * “\\[...] a law that imposes those Prop 2 living conditions on egg producers in any other state or country that intended to sell their products in the state of California. Specifically, AB 1437 prohibited shelled eggs from being sold for human consumption in the state of California if the farm or location for production was not in compliance with the California animal care standard.”\n* Labeling argument \n * “\\[...] violate the labeling provisions of 21 U.S.C. § 1052(b). This section mandates that “\\[labeling, packaging, or ingredient requirements, in addition to or different than those made under \\[the EPIA], the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act \\[21 U.S.C. 301 et seq.] and the Fair Packaging and Labeling Act \\[15 U.S.C. 1451 et seq.], may not be imposed by any State or local jurisdiction, with respect to egg products processed at any official plant in accordance with the requirements under this chapter and such Acts.” Note that the labeling preemption provisions apply to egg products, but not to shell eggs.”\n\n[<u>Source</u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/challenge-to-californias-hen-housing-laws/) for all quotes about the EPIA lawsuit.\n\nYou can find a large notepad of related facts and history for this question [here](https://meercast.substack.com/p/predicting-challenges-to-prop-12?r=5dzdv5\\&utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web\\&triedRedirect=true).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any of the listed aspects of the listed laws are legally invalidated or superseded, either through a court ruling, or an overriding state or federal law before January 20th, 2029.\n\n* Prop 12:\n * New minimum space requirements for confining veal calves, breeding pigs, and egg-laying hens.\n * Egg-laying hens are required to be raised in cage-free environment.\n * Certain commercial sales of specified meat and egg products derived from animals confined in a noncomplying manner are prohibited.\n * Sales violations are defined as unfair competition.\n* Prop 2:\n * Covered animals located in the state of California can not be prevented from lying down or standing up and fully extending its limbs or turning around freely.\n* AB 1437:\n * Prohibits shelled eggs from being sold for human consumption in the state of California if the farm or location for production is not in compliance with the California animal care standard.", "fine_print": "Any change making one or more of the laws less restrictive will resolve this question as **Yes**.\n\nAn expansion to the laws, such as increased space requirements, will not resolve this question.", "post_id": 38995, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755477180.28636, "end_time": 1766086370.27, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755477180.28636, "end_time": 1766086370.27, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.7116109973507107 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Prop 12 is one of the largest and most successful animal welfare laws in the United States, and has been a consistent target of the Trump administration.\n\nIn July, 2025 the Department of Justice (DOJ) [filed a lawsuit](https://sentientmedia.org/trump-suing-to-overturn-prop-12/) against the state of California over its animal welfare laws - Prop 12, AB1437, and Prop 2 - arguing that it violated the Egg Products Inspection Act (EPIA). DOJ's main argument insists that California's laws disrupt uniformity of egg regulations around the country, which is a key part of EPIA. This argument primarily hinges on the legal definitions of EPIA's definitions of \"condition\" and \"quality\", but there is also a separate argument about labeling.\n\nAnother threat to the the law is the inclusion of provisions that invalidate Prop 12 in the coming renewal of the 2023 Farm Bill later this year. (Farm Bill tracker [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/issues/farm-policy/the-latest-updates-on-the-2025-farm-bill/), and explainer [<u>here </u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/farmbills/)and [<u>here</u>](https://www.farmaid.org/our-work/farm-bill/))\n\n“Challenged Provisions: Specifically, the lawsuit challenges Proposition 12, Proposition 2 and AB 1437, all of which are provisions of California law dictating either living conditions for egg laying hens, the sale of eggs and egg products from those hens, or both.”\n\n* Prop 12 \n * “It combined aspects of the two previous laws, requiring California farmers to provide a minimum amount of square feet to egg-laying hens, veal calves, and breeding pigs, while also requiring that products sold within the state be traceable to animals living in similarly sized areas. \n * Note: “The sales provisions of “Prop 12” were challenged in National Pork Producers Council v. Ross, a case that made its way to the Supreme Court of the United States. The Court ruled that the California law was constitutional and allowed it to go into effect.\n* Prop 2\n * “covered animals located in the state of California could not be prevented from lying down, standing up and fully extending its limbs or turning around freely.\n* AB 1437\n * “\\[...] a law that imposes those Prop 2 living conditions on egg producers in any other state or country that intended to sell their products in the state of California. Specifically, AB 1437 prohibited shelled eggs from being sold for human consumption in the state of California if the farm or location for production was not in compliance with the California animal care standard.”\n* Labeling argument \n * “\\[...] violate the labeling provisions of 21 U.S.C. § 1052(b). This section mandates that “\\[labeling, packaging, or ingredient requirements, in addition to or different than those made under \\[the EPIA], the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act \\[21 U.S.C. 301 et seq.] and the Fair Packaging and Labeling Act \\[15 U.S.C. 1451 et seq.], may not be imposed by any State or local jurisdiction, with respect to egg products processed at any official plant in accordance with the requirements under this chapter and such Acts.” Note that the labeling preemption provisions apply to egg products, but not to shell eggs.”\n\n[<u>Source</u>](https://nationalaglawcenter.org/challenge-to-californias-hen-housing-laws/) for all quotes about the EPIA lawsuit.\n\nYou can find a large notepad of related facts and history for this question [here](https://meercast.substack.com/p/predicting-challenges-to-prop-12?r=5dzdv5\\&utm_campaign=post\\&utm_medium=web\\&triedRedirect=true)." }, { "id": 38985, "title": "Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacex-launch-the-starship-three-or-more-times-in-the-second-half-of-2025", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-29T14:29:09.769351Z", "published_at": "2025-07-29T15:34:34Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:13:21.027614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-29T15:35:00.232516Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-30T15:34:34Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32607, "name": "2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 38331, "title": "Will SpaceX launch the Starship three or more times in the second half of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-29T14:29:09.769759Z", "open_time": "2025-07-30T15:34:34Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-08-03T15:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-08-03T15:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 28, 2025, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1949938925163962634), \"Starship launches again next month.\"\n\nAccording to [Orbital Today](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/07/29/starship-test-flight-expected-in-august-as-spacex-moves-rocket-for-checks/) on July 29, 2025, SpaceX's new launch cadence for Starship, which is intended to eventually send humans to the Moon and Mars, comes after a series of testing issues in the first half of 2025: \n\n> SpaceX is still addressing issues from a static [fire incident in June](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/19/spacexs-starship-explodes-during-test-ahead-of-10th-flight/), when the rocket’s second stage exploded during testing. The failure was traced to a fault in a pressurised nitrogen tank located in the ship’s nosecone area.\n\n> Earlier this year, all three Starship flights ended in explosions, including flight nine, where both stages were destroyed. The fallout has drawn criticism from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who raised concerns about contamination from debris landing across the border.\n\nIn May 2025, SpaceX [won approval ](https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/space/2025/05/07/spacex-secures-starship-boost-after-winning-approval-for-25-launches-a-year/)from the FAA for up to 25 launches a year. At the time of this question, the base rate information for SpaceX's Starship launches is as follows:\n\n| Launch Date (UTC) | Operator | Vehicle | Payload | Human Spaceflight | Site | State/Location |\n| ----------------- | -------- | -------------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ----------------------------- | -------------- |\n| 2023‑04‑20 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 1 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2023‑11‑18 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 2 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑03‑14 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 3 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑06‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 4 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑10‑13 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 5 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑11‑19 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 6 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑01‑16 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 7 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑03‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 8 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑05‑27 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 9 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n\nSee Also: [When will the following vehicles (including Starship) launch into orbit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13732/when-will-the-following-vehicles-launch-into-orbit/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, after June 30, 2025 and before January 1, 2026, there are 3 or more launches of SpaceX's Starship vehicle, according to the Federal Aviation Administration's [Licensed Launches ](https://explore.dot.gov/t/FAA/views/CommercialSpaceTransportation/LicensedLaunches)database. For example, at the time of this question the most recent qualifying launch listed was the Starship Super-Heavy on May 27, 2025.", "fine_print": "For simplicity, no attempt will be made to second-guess FAA's definitions or methodologies when it come to whether a launch occurs, and this question will resolve based on FAA's launch reporting.\n\nIn the event of any issues with the resolution source such as reporting delays, Admins may resolve the question based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/faq/#definitions). If Metaculus relies on credible sources rather than the FAA's launch reporting, it will define a \"launch\" as occurring when a Starship vehicle leaves the launchpad intact and under its own power.", "post_id": 38985, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757470390.19828, "end_time": 1759117545.84, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757470390.19828, "end_time": 1759117545.84, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.563968586785513 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.862882435577901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23128568172579037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7064993787569234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 28, 2025, Elon Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1949938925163962634), \"Starship launches again next month.\"\n\nAccording to [Orbital Today](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/07/29/starship-test-flight-expected-in-august-as-spacex-moves-rocket-for-checks/) on July 29, 2025, SpaceX's new launch cadence for Starship, which is intended to eventually send humans to the Moon and Mars, comes after a series of testing issues in the first half of 2025: \n\n> SpaceX is still addressing issues from a static [fire incident in June](https://orbitaltoday.com/2025/06/19/spacexs-starship-explodes-during-test-ahead-of-10th-flight/), when the rocket’s second stage exploded during testing. The failure was traced to a fault in a pressurised nitrogen tank located in the ship’s nosecone area.\n\n> Earlier this year, all three Starship flights ended in explosions, including flight nine, where both stages were destroyed. The fallout has drawn criticism from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who raised concerns about contamination from debris landing across the border.\n\nIn May 2025, SpaceX [won approval ](https://www.thenationalnews.com/future/space/2025/05/07/spacex-secures-starship-boost-after-winning-approval-for-25-launches-a-year/)from the FAA for up to 25 launches a year. At the time of this question, the base rate information for SpaceX's Starship launches is as follows:\n\n| Launch Date (UTC) | Operator | Vehicle | Payload | Human Spaceflight | Site | State/Location |\n| ----------------- | -------- | -------------------- | -------- | ----------------- | ----------------------------- | -------------- |\n| 2023‑04‑20 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 1 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2023‑11‑18 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 2 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑03‑14 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 3 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑06‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 4 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑10‑13 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 5 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2024‑11‑19 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 6 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑01‑16 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 7 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑03‑06 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 8 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n| 2025‑05‑27 | SpaceX | Starship Super‑Heavy | Flight 9 | No | Boca Chica – SpaceX Exclusive | Texas |\n\nSee Also: [When will the following vehicles (including Starship) launch into orbit?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13732/when-will-the-following-vehicles-launch-into-orbit/)" }, { "id": 38981, "title": "#33 - Will the Florida Department of Environmental Protection deem the Tiger Point WWTF expansion on-schedule in its 2025 compliance review?", "short_title": "#33 - FDEP deems Tiger Point expansion on-schedule", "url_title": "#33 - FDEP deems Tiger Point expansion on-schedule", "slug": "33-fdep-deems-tiger-point-expansion-on-schedule", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:30.284975Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:56:58.140673Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:59:00.658658Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38321, "title": "#33 - Will the Florida Department of Environmental Protection deem the Tiger Point WWTF expansion on-schedule in its 2025 compliance review?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:30.285358Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) conducts regular compliance reviews of infrastructure projects, including the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) expansion. These reviews assess whether projects are progressing on schedule and meeting environmental and permit requirements. A determination that the project is \"on-schedule\" signals regulatory alignment and helps the city avoid delays or corrective penalties. This question tracks the outcome of FDEP's 2025 review.\n\n**From the city website:**\n\n> The Project Area is in Tiger Point. The work includes the construction of infrastructure to expand the treatment capacity of the existing wastewater treatment plant from 2.0 million gallons per day to 3.5 million gallons per day. The infrastructure includes constructing new oxidation ditches, water clarifiers, filters, and all other components necessary for a complete and operational wastewater treatment facility. It also includes the rehab and refurbishing of existing Bardenpho reactors to additional water reject storage tanks.\n>  \n> Bids were opened early 2024, and the bid was awarded April 2024. Construction began August 2024, and the estimated completion date for the project is January 2027. Construction is currently at 25% complete.\n\n## Tiger Point WWTF Expansion & FDEP Compliance – Key Resources\n\n* **Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility Expansion Project Page**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/)\n *Project overview, timeline, construction progress (25% complete as of April 2025), and anticipated completion (January 2027). No current mention of major delays or compliance issues; last update lists project as “active.”*\n* **RESTORE Act Multiyear Plan Amendment 3: Santa Rosa County**\n [https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/DocumentCenter/View/9604/RESTORE-Act-Direct-Component-Amendment-3-Narrative-public-comment-draft](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/DocumentCenter/View/9604/RESTORE-Act-Direct-Component-Amendment-3-Narrative-public-comment-draft)\n *Lists project milestones and performance measures relating to water quality, with compliance referenced as ongoing and public input noted in 2025.*\n* **Local News Reporting on Funding and City Oversight**\n [https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-wants-to-add-14-to-customers-bill-to-help-fund-wastewater-treatment-expansion](https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-wants-to-add-14-to-customers-bill-to-help-fund-wastewater-treatment-expansion)\n *Details how major funding for the Tiger Point WWTF expansion comes from a mix of grants, fees, and city allocation. City council and manager presentations confirm the project timeline and address state requirements.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\n**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if FDEP's 2025 compliance review states that the Tiger Point WWTF expansion is on-schedule and in compliance. If the review indicates the project is behind schedule, not in compliance, or includes new corrective actions, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757372207.473, "end_time": 1757784474.722, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757372207.473, "end_time": 1757784474.722, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.4739013748772921 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Florida Department of Environmental Protection (FDEP) conducts regular compliance reviews of infrastructure projects, including the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) expansion. These reviews assess whether projects are progressing on schedule and meeting environmental and permit requirements. A determination that the project is \"on-schedule\" signals regulatory alignment and helps the city avoid delays or corrective penalties. This question tracks the outcome of FDEP's 2025 review.\n\n**From the city website:**\n\n> The Project Area is in Tiger Point. The work includes the construction of infrastructure to expand the treatment capacity of the existing wastewater treatment plant from 2.0 million gallons per day to 3.5 million gallons per day. The infrastructure includes constructing new oxidation ditches, water clarifiers, filters, and all other components necessary for a complete and operational wastewater treatment facility. It also includes the rehab and refurbishing of existing Bardenpho reactors to additional water reject storage tanks.\n>  \n> Bids were opened early 2024, and the bid was awarded April 2024. Construction began August 2024, and the estimated completion date for the project is January 2027. Construction is currently at 25% complete.\n\n## Tiger Point WWTF Expansion & FDEP Compliance – Key Resources\n\n* **Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility Expansion Project Page**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/1-5-mgd-expansion-for-tiger-point-waste-water-treatment-facility/)\n *Project overview, timeline, construction progress (25% complete as of April 2025), and anticipated completion (January 2027). No current mention of major delays or compliance issues; last update lists project as “active.”*\n* **RESTORE Act Multiyear Plan Amendment 3: Santa Rosa County**\n [https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/DocumentCenter/View/9604/RESTORE-Act-Direct-Component-Amendment-3-Narrative-public-comment-draft](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/DocumentCenter/View/9604/RESTORE-Act-Direct-Component-Amendment-3-Narrative-public-comment-draft)\n *Lists project milestones and performance measures relating to water quality, with compliance referenced as ongoing and public input noted in 2025.*\n* **Local News Reporting on Funding and City Oversight**\n [https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-wants-to-add-14-to-customers-bill-to-help-fund-wastewater-treatment-expansion](https://weartv.com/news/local/gulf-breeze-wants-to-add-14-to-customers-bill-to-help-fund-wastewater-treatment-expansion)\n *Details how major funding for the Tiger Point WWTF expansion comes from a mix of grants, fees, and city allocation. City council and manager presentations confirm the project timeline and address state requirements.*" }, { "id": 38980, "title": "#32 - Will Gulf Breeze publish quarterly dashboard data on its website for Tiger Point WWTF and Septic-to-Sewer programs throughout 2025?", "short_title": "#32 - Quarterly dashboards for Tiger Point WWTF and Septic-to-Sewer programs", "url_title": "#32 - Quarterly dashboards for Tiger Point WWTF and Septic-to-Sewer programs", "slug": "32-quarterly-dashboards-for-tiger-point-wwtf-and-septic-to-sewer-programs", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:28.019089Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:05:13.678755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:58:43.618401Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38320, "title": "#32 - Will Gulf Breeze publish quarterly dashboard data on its website for Tiger Point WWTF and Septic-to-Sewer programs throughout 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:28.019488Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze has committed to keeping the public informed on major infrastructure projects, including the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) expansion and the septic-to-sewer conversion program. To support transparency, the City aims to share quarterly dashboard updates online showing key metrics like construction progress, budget status, and timelines. \n\nThis forecast asks: will these dashboards be published on the city website for all four quarters of 2025 for both projects?\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Where the City posts official documents, resolutions, and updates that may include quarterly dashboard releases and project progress reports.*", "resolution_criteria": "**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if Gulf Breeze publishes dashboard updates online for all four quarters of calendar year 2025, covering both the Tiger Point WWTF expansion and the septic-to-sewer program. If the city fails to post updates for any quarter or for either program, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757353509.535, "end_time": 1757778975.417, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757353509.535, "end_time": 1757778975.417, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6376382978734842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 19, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze has committed to keeping the public informed on major infrastructure projects, including the Tiger Point Wastewater Treatment Facility (WWTF) expansion and the septic-to-sewer conversion program. To support transparency, the City aims to share quarterly dashboard updates online showing key metrics like construction progress, budget status, and timelines. \n\nThis forecast asks: will these dashboards be published on the city website for all four quarters of 2025 for both projects?\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Where the City posts official documents, resolutions, and updates that may include quarterly dashboard releases and project progress reports.*" }, { "id": 38977, "title": "#29 - Will Gulf Breeze win at least $1 million in new natural resource grants during calendar year 2025?", "short_title": "#29 - Gulf Breeze wins at least $1 million in new natural resource grants", "url_title": "#29 - Gulf Breeze wins at least $1 million in new natural resource grants", "slug": "29-gulf-breeze-wins-at-least-1-million-in-new-natural-resource-grants", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:21.128663Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:53:19.732030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:57:50.781418Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38317, "title": "#29 - Will Gulf Breeze win at least $1 million in new natural resource grants during calendar year 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:21.129103Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze actively seeks state and federal funding to support projects like stormwater upgrades, septic-to-sewer conversions, and coastal restoration. These grants help the city pursue environmental goals while reducing the cost burden on residents. For example, Gulf Breeze previously secured a \\$12.8 million NRDA grant for septic system replacement. This forecast asks whether the city will secure at least \\$1 million in new environmental or natural resource grants during 2025.\n\n## Gulf Breeze Environmental and Natural Resource Grant Resources\n\n* **Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Local Government Water Supply Pilot Grant Program — \\$25 million awarded to Northwest Florida**\n [https://www.wuwf.org/text/local-news/2025-04-03/local-agencies-get-25-million-from-fdep-to-boost-water-supply-infrastructure](https://www.wuwf.org/text/local-news/2025-04-03/local-agencies-get-25-million-from-fdep-to-boost-water-supply-infrastructure)\n *Includes multiple regional awards with over \\$800,000 going to Gulf Breeze’s Bay Bridge water replacement project.*\n* **Gulf Coast Community Foundation Grants**\n [https://www.gulfcoastcf.org/grants](https://www.gulfcoastcf.org/grants)\n *Foundation grants focusing on water quality, green space access, and other environmental priorities.*", "resolution_criteria": "**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context, additional city resources, news stories, and for why this question is important for our community.**\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if official grant announcements confirm Gulf Breeze receives at least \\$1 million in new natural resource or environmental grants during calendar year 2025. If total awards are below \\$1 million, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757285589.32191, "end_time": 1757784646.815, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757285589.32191, "end_time": 1757784646.815, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.68 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31999999999999995, 0.68 ], "means": [ 0.5834018995213097 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze actively seeks state and federal funding to support projects like stormwater upgrades, septic-to-sewer conversions, and coastal restoration. These grants help the city pursue environmental goals while reducing the cost burden on residents. For example, Gulf Breeze previously secured a \\$12.8 million NRDA grant for septic system replacement. This forecast asks whether the city will secure at least \\$1 million in new environmental or natural resource grants during 2025.\n\n## Gulf Breeze Environmental and Natural Resource Grant Resources\n\n* **Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) Local Government Water Supply Pilot Grant Program — \\$25 million awarded to Northwest Florida**\n [https://www.wuwf.org/text/local-news/2025-04-03/local-agencies-get-25-million-from-fdep-to-boost-water-supply-infrastructure](https://www.wuwf.org/text/local-news/2025-04-03/local-agencies-get-25-million-from-fdep-to-boost-water-supply-infrastructure)\n *Includes multiple regional awards with over \\$800,000 going to Gulf Breeze’s Bay Bridge water replacement project.*\n* **Gulf Coast Community Foundation Grants**\n [https://www.gulfcoastcf.org/grants](https://www.gulfcoastcf.org/grants)\n *Foundation grants focusing on water quality, green space access, and other environmental priorities.*" }, { "id": 38976, "title": "#28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?", "short_title": "#28 - Traffic stops total similar to 2024", "url_title": "#28 - Traffic stops total similar to 2024", "slug": "28-traffic-stops-total-similar-to-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:18.901283Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:01:34.684106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-08-19T16:59:30.236008Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38316, "title": "#28 - Will Gulf Breeze police traffic stops stay within 10% of the 2024 baseline in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:18.901693Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2024, Gulf Breeze police conducted 8,832 traffic stops. As of August 18, 2025 this year, police have conducted 5,551. This serves as a baseline for enforcement activity in the city. A 10% range around that number — from 7,949 to 9,715 stops — reflects stable operational patterns and resource use. Large swings could suggest shifts in staffing, enforcement priorities, or local conditions. This forecast asks whether traffic stops during calendar year 2025 will remain within that 10% range.", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question resolves **Yes** if Gulf Breeze police conduct between 7,949 and 9,715 stops traffic stops during calendar year 2025. If stops fall below or exceed that range, it resolves **No**. Official police department records will be used for confirmation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757439941.014, "end_time": 1757781281.578, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757439941.014, "end_time": 1757781281.578, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.71 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.71 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.29000000000000004, 0.71 ], "means": [ 0.6043841664825512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2024, Gulf Breeze police conducted 8,832 traffic stops. As of August 18, 2025 this year, police have conducted 5,551. This serves as a baseline for enforcement activity in the city. A 10% range around that number — from 7,949 to 9,715 stops — reflects stable operational patterns and resource use. Large swings could suggest shifts in staffing, enforcement priorities, or local conditions. This forecast asks whether traffic stops during calendar year 2025 will remain within that 10% range." }, { "id": 38974, "title": "#26 - Will total arrests and warrants in Gulf Breeze stay under 450 in 2025?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "26-will-total-arrests-and-warrants-in-gulf-breeze-stay-under-450-in-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:14.411964Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:56:09.272757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:56:43.296410Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38314, "title": "#26 - Will total arrests and warrants in Gulf Breeze stay under 450 in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:42:14.412359Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Gulf Breeze Police Department tracks the total number of arrests and executed warrants as a key public safety metric. These figures reflect crime levels, enforcement activity, and community trends. If the combined total remains below 450 for the year, it may suggest lower crime rates, successful prevention efforts, or changes in enforcement practices. This forecast asks: will the total number of arrests and warrants stay under 450 in calendar year 2025?", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official records from the Gulf Breeze Police Department confirm that the combined number of arrests and warrant executions during calendar year 2025 is fewer than 450. If the total is 450 or more, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38974, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757285758.903223, "end_time": 1757778746.769, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757285758.903223, "end_time": 1757778746.769, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4587155506694314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Gulf Breeze Police Department tracks the total number of arrests and executed warrants as a key public safety metric. These figures reflect crime levels, enforcement activity, and community trends. If the combined total remains below 450 for the year, it may suggest lower crime rates, successful prevention efforts, or changes in enforcement practices. This forecast asks: will the total number of arrests and warrants stay under 450 in calendar year 2025?" }, { "id": 38971, "title": "#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#23 - New recreation software system running by 2026", "url_title": "#23 - New recreation software system running by 2026", "slug": "23-new-recreation-software-system-running-by-2026", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:34.561612Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:02:24.283507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:55:42.053907Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38311, "title": "#23 - Will the new recreation software system be up and running before the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:34.562014Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is switching to a new online system for managing recreation programs and facility rentals. This updated software will make it easier for residents to sign up for activities, reserve spaces, and access parks and recreation services. It's also expected to make things smoother behind the scenes for staff. This forecast asks: will the new system be fully in place by December 31, 2025?\n\n* **Gulf Breeze Parks and Recreation Official Website**\n [https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com](https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com/)\n *Provides information on parks, activities, and services available to residents.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Strategic Plan 2020-2025**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GB-5-year-strategic-plan-3.pdf](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GB-5-year-strategic-plan-3.pdf)\n *Outlines goals related to enhancing recreation programming, improving user experience, and implementing new technology tools*", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the recreation management software migration is complete and operational by December 31, 2025. If it is not finished by that date, the question resolves **No**. 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This updated software will make it easier for residents to sign up for activities, reserve spaces, and access parks and recreation services. It's also expected to make things smoother behind the scenes for staff. This forecast asks: will the new system be fully in place by December 31, 2025?\n\n* **Gulf Breeze Parks and Recreation Official Website**\n [https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com](https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com/)\n *Provides information on parks, activities, and services available to residents.*\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Strategic Plan 2020-2025**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GB-5-year-strategic-plan-3.pdf](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GB-5-year-strategic-plan-3.pdf)\n *Outlines goals related to enhancing recreation programming, improving user experience, and implementing new technology tools*" }, { "id": 38970, "title": "#22 - Will the golf cart parking project be finished on budget by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#22 - Will the golf cart parking project be finished by the end of 2025?", "url_title": "#22 - Will the golf cart parking project be finished by the end of 2025?", "slug": "22-will-the-golf-cart-parking-project-be-finished-by-the-end-of-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:32.274708Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:58:14.861858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:55:29.051249Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38310, "title": "#22 - Will the golf cart parking project be finished on budget by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:32.275221Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Golf carts are a popular way for people in Gulf Breeze to get around town, whether for errands, recreation, or just a quick trip to the park. To support this, the City is building new parking areas specifically for golf carts near key commercial and recreational spots. This forecast asks: will the golf cart parking project be completed during 2025 — and stay within its approved budget?\n\n[Gulf Breeze Parking at Shoreline Park South (City of Gulf Breeze, September 1, 2023)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/pay-to-park/)\nDetails new paid parking system and improvements at Shoreline Park, including gravel parking expansion for boats and recreational vehicles, but no specific mention of golf cart parking project completion or budget status.\n\n[E-Mobility, Golf Carts and The Loop - City of Gulf Breeze (August 1, 2022)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/golf-carts-and-the-loop/)\nCovers golf cart regulations in Gulf Breeze, including registration, equipment requirements, approved roadways, and restrictions. Highlights golf carts can be driven on designated roads and shared-use pathways but doesn’t specifically address new golf cart parking infrastructure or project progress.", "resolution_criteria": "**Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the golf cart parking project is both completed during calendar year 2025 and does not exceed its approved budget. If it runs over budget or is unfinished by December 31, 2025, it will resolve **No**. 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To support this, the City is building new parking areas specifically for golf carts near key commercial and recreational spots. This forecast asks: will the golf cart parking project be completed during 2025 — and stay within its approved budget?\n\n[Gulf Breeze Parking at Shoreline Park South (City of Gulf Breeze, September 1, 2023)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/pay-to-park/)\nDetails new paid parking system and improvements at Shoreline Park, including gravel parking expansion for boats and recreational vehicles, but no specific mention of golf cart parking project completion or budget status.\n\n[E-Mobility, Golf Carts and The Loop - City of Gulf Breeze (August 1, 2022)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/golf-carts-and-the-loop/)\nCovers golf cart regulations in Gulf Breeze, including registration, equipment requirements, approved roadways, and restrictions. Highlights golf carts can be driven on designated roads and shared-use pathways but doesn’t specifically address new golf cart parking infrastructure or project progress." }, { "id": 38969, "title": "#21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#21 - Park maintenance building expansion completed", "url_title": "#21 - Park maintenance building expansion completed", "slug": "21-park-maintenance-building-expansion-completed", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:30.053283Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:55:04.337592Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:55:17.493575Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38309, "title": "#21 - Will the park maintenance building expansion be completed by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:30.053696Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is expanding its park maintenance building to help keep up with the growing needs of its parks and recreation system. The upgraded facility will give the City more space for storing equipment, supporting staff, and carrying out park maintenance operations efficiently. This forecast asks: will the expansion be finished by December 31, 2025?", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the park maintenance building expansion is completed by December 31, 2025. If construction is still unfinished on that date, it will resolve **No**. Confirmation will come from official city project updates or records.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38969, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757285693.773154, "end_time": 1757784632.281, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757285693.773154, "end_time": 1757784632.281, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.76 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6702448026993397 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is expanding its park maintenance building to help keep up with the growing needs of its parks and recreation system. The upgraded facility will give the City more space for storing equipment, supporting staff, and carrying out park maintenance operations efficiently. This forecast asks: will the expansion be finished by December 31, 2025?" }, { "id": 38968, "title": "#20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?", "short_title": "#20 - Upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park", "url_title": "#20 - Upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park", "slug": "20-upgraded-boat-dock-and-ramp-at-shoreline-park", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:27.791295Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T22:57:35.866518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:54:52.830384Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38308, "title": "#20 - Will the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park be completed and open by February 28, 2026?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:27.791712Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-03-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-03-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-03-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is making improvements to the boat dock and ramp at [Shoreline Park South](https://www.visitpensacola.com/directory/shoreline-park-south/), supported by funding from the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) program. These upgrades will improve public access to fishing and boating, enhance safety, and provide better facilities for residents and visitors. This forecast asks: will the construction be finished and the new dock and ramp open to the public by February 28, 2026?\n\n* [**City of Gulf Breeze Projects Page**](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/gulf-breeze-parks-boating-and-fishing-access-upgrades-nrda-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-grant-agreement/)\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/)\n\n\n**From the city website:**\n\n> On December 21, 2021, the City Council approved the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation (FWC) Commission Grant Agreement No. 21127 for the Gulf Breeze Parks Boating and Fishing Access upgrades grant.\n> The grant is designed to help improve boating, paddleboard, kayak and fishing access at three of our local parks: Shoreline Park South, Vista Park & Pier, and Woodland Park.\n>  \n> July 2019, the City of Gulf Breeze joined the Florida Paddling Trails Association as an active Blueways Community, thus becoming part of the Florida Circumnavigational Saltwater Paddling Trail. Six months earlier on January 10, 2019, the Gulf Breeze Blueways Plan gained approval by the Gulf Breeze Advisory Parks Board and City Council. The Plan promotes tourist-oriented waterfront destinations for kayaks and paddlers: Shoreline Park South, Woodland Park, and Vista Park.\n>  \n> The City was awarded a \\$1.2 million FWC grant in order to design and implement the Plan '23-'24. Upgrades include a relocated floating dock at Woodland Park, and numerous upgrades including a kayak launch at Shoreline Park South. Vista Park has been dropped due to feasability.\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Shoreline Park South Boat Dock and Ramp Project Resources\n\n* **FY 2025-34 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) - Boat Dock and Ramp Funding**\n [FY 2025-34 Capital Improvement Plan (PDF)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Capital-Improvement-Plan-FY2025-34-_-1.pdf)\n *Details funding sources, including a \\$1.17 million NRDA grant dedicated to upgrades at Shoreline Park (page referencing Parks & Recreation projects).*\n* **Gulf Breeze Parks and Recreation–Boat Launch Information**\n [https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com/boat-launch](https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com/boat-launch)\n *General information about boat launch facilities including hours, use policies, and location.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official records that may include contracts, progress reports, and notices regarding Shoreline Park South upgrades.*", "resolution_criteria": "**Scroll past this section and down to the Background section for context.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the upgraded boat dock and ramp at Shoreline Park South are completed and open to the public by February 28, 2026. If the facilities are not yet finished or not open for use by that date, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38968, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757285845.138318, "end_time": 1757781235.992, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757285845.138318, "end_time": 1757781235.992, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.8422488308399614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1213241560263298 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is making improvements to the boat dock and ramp at [Shoreline Park South](https://www.visitpensacola.com/directory/shoreline-park-south/), supported by funding from the Natural Resource Damage Assessment (NRDA) program. These upgrades will improve public access to fishing and boating, enhance safety, and provide better facilities for residents and visitors. This forecast asks: will the construction be finished and the new dock and ramp open to the public by February 28, 2026?\n\n* [**City of Gulf Breeze Projects Page**](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/gulf-breeze-parks-boating-and-fishing-access-upgrades-nrda-deepwater-horizon-oil-spill-grant-agreement/)\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/projects/)\n\n\n**From the city website:**\n\n> On December 21, 2021, the City Council approved the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation (FWC) Commission Grant Agreement No. 21127 for the Gulf Breeze Parks Boating and Fishing Access upgrades grant.\n> The grant is designed to help improve boating, paddleboard, kayak and fishing access at three of our local parks: Shoreline Park South, Vista Park & Pier, and Woodland Park.\n>  \n> July 2019, the City of Gulf Breeze joined the Florida Paddling Trails Association as an active Blueways Community, thus becoming part of the Florida Circumnavigational Saltwater Paddling Trail. Six months earlier on January 10, 2019, the Gulf Breeze Blueways Plan gained approval by the Gulf Breeze Advisory Parks Board and City Council. The Plan promotes tourist-oriented waterfront destinations for kayaks and paddlers: Shoreline Park South, Woodland Park, and Vista Park.\n>  \n> The City was awarded a \\$1.2 million FWC grant in order to design and implement the Plan '23-'24. Upgrades include a relocated floating dock at Woodland Park, and numerous upgrades including a kayak launch at Shoreline Park South. Vista Park has been dropped due to feasability.\n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Shoreline Park South Boat Dock and Ramp Project Resources\n\n* **FY 2025-34 Capital Improvement Plan (CIP) - Boat Dock and Ramp Funding**\n [FY 2025-34 Capital Improvement Plan (PDF)](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Capital-Improvement-Plan-FY2025-34-_-1.pdf)\n *Details funding sources, including a \\$1.17 million NRDA grant dedicated to upgrades at Shoreline Park (page referencing Parks & Recreation projects).*\n* **Gulf Breeze Parks and Recreation–Boat Launch Information**\n [https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com/boat-launch](https://www.gulfbreezeparksandrecreation.com/boat-launch)\n *General information about boat launch facilities including hours, use policies, and location.*\n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *Official records that may include contracts, progress reports, and notices regarding Shoreline Park South upgrades.*" }, { "id": 38967, "title": "#19 - Will Gulf Breeze earn at least $3,000 from scrap metal recycling", "short_title": "#19 - City earns at least $3,000 from scrap metal recycling", "url_title": "#19 - City earns at least $3,000 from scrap metal recycling", "slug": "19-city-earns-at-least-3000-from-scrap-metal-recycling", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:25.489980Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:04:10.474018Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:54:40.636793Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-30T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38307, "title": "#19 - Will Gulf Breeze earn at least $3,000 from scrap metal recycling", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:25.490371Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-09-30T17:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-09-30T17:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze recycles scrap metal — things like old appliances, pipes, and leftover materials — and earns money by selling it to recycling companies. This helps reduce waste and brings in extra revenue for the City. How much is collected and earned depends on market prices and the volume of metal recycled. This forecast asks: will the scrap metal program bring in at least \\$3,000 in revenue during calendar year 2025", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if Gulf Breeze's official financial records confirm that the scrap metal recycling program earned at least \\$3,000 in revenue during calendar year 2025. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38967, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286239.76265, "end_time": 1757781302.115, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286239.76265, "end_time": 1757781302.115, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.86 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.14, 0.86 ], "means": [ 0.7991821481139022 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.12132415602633 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze recycles scrap metal — things like old appliances, pipes, and leftover materials — and earns money by selling it to recycling companies. This helps reduce waste and brings in extra revenue for the City. How much is collected and earned depends on market prices and the volume of metal recycled. This forecast asks: will the scrap metal program bring in at least \\$3,000 in revenue during calendar year 2025" }, { "id": 38966, "title": "#18 - Will Gulf Breeze cut water loss from leaks by at least 30 gallons per minute in 2025?", "short_title": "#18 - Cut water loss from leaks by at least 30 gallons per minute", "url_title": "#18 - Cut water loss from leaks by at least 30 gallons per minute", "slug": "18-cut-water-loss-from-leaks-by-at-least-30-gallons-per-minute", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:23.174263Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:00:22.445511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:54:29.249589Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38306, "title": "#18 - Will Gulf Breeze cut water loss from leaks by at least 30 gallons per minute in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:23.174658Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Every gallon counts — especially when it comes to leaks. Gulf Breeze tracks how much clean water is lost from the system due to aging pipes or small cracks. The City runs leak detection and repair programs to save water and keep pressure stable across the system. This forecast asks: during 2025, will these efforts reduce wasted water by at least 30 gallons per minute?\n\n## Resources\n\n* **Gulf Breeze Public Services Department**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/public-services-department/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/public-services-department/)\n *Department responsible for water system maintenance, leak detection programs, and general water loss control.*\n* **Water Conservation Program**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/water-conservation/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/water-conservation/)\n *Tips and public resources about saving water, including efforts to address leaks.*", "resolution_criteria": "\n\nScroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze documents at least 30 gallons per minute of reduced water loss through leak control efforts during calendar year 2025. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38966, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286012.136407, "end_time": 1757784455.612, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286012.136407, "end_time": 1757784455.612, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.36 ], "centers": [ 0.51 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.49, 0.51 ], "means": [ 0.42375575678130567 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037828112710855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Every gallon counts — especially when it comes to leaks. Gulf Breeze tracks how much clean water is lost from the system due to aging pipes or small cracks. The City runs leak detection and repair programs to save water and keep pressure stable across the system. This forecast asks: during 2025, will these efforts reduce wasted water by at least 30 gallons per minute?\n\n## Resources\n\n* **Gulf Breeze Public Services Department**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/public-services-department/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/public-services-department/)\n *Department responsible for water system maintenance, leak detection programs, and general water loss control.*\n* **Water Conservation Program**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/water-conservation/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/water-conservation/)\n *Tips and public resources about saving water, including efforts to address leaks.*" }, { "id": 38965, "title": "#17 - Will the new natural gas regulator station on Hoffman Drive be completed by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#17 - Will the new natural gas regulator station on Hoffman Drive be completed", "url_title": "#17 - Will the new natural gas regulator station on Hoffman Drive be completed", "slug": "17-will-the-new-natural-gas-regulator-station-on-hoffman-drive-be-completed", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:20.858871Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:00:43.417105Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:54:17.818371Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38305, "title": "#17 - Will the new natural gas regulator station on Hoffman Drive be completed by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:20.859309Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Regulator stations help control the flow and pressure of natural gas through the city's system, keeping service safe and steady. Gulf Breeze is replacing the station on Hoffman Drive as part of its regular upgrades to aging infrastructure. This project helps ensure reliable gas service for nearby homes and businesses. This forecast asks: will the new station be up and running by December 31, 2025?\n\n## Resources\n\n* The Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Plan includes funding for natural gas infrastructure upgrades such as regulator station replacements. For example, a \\$100,000 allocation listed in the CIP for regulator station improvements shows the city's commitment to maintaining safe and efficient natural gas flow.\n* Gulf Breeze Natural Gas Department:\n * Mission to provide safe, clean, reliable natural gas at the lowest cost.\n * Website: [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas/)\n\n***\n\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Plan 2021-2031 (PDF)**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Gulf-Breeze-Capital-Improvement-Program-Plan-2021-2031-Approved-09-14-2020.pdf](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Gulf-Breeze-Capital-Improvement-Program-Plan-2021-2031-Approved-09-14-2020.pdf)\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Natural Gas Department**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas/)", "resolution_criteria": "**Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.**\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze confirms that the new natural gas regulator station on Hoffman Drive is completed and operational by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286032.813001, "end_time": 1757784439.05, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286032.813001, "end_time": 1757784439.05, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.4572675203098274 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4037828112710855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Regulator stations help control the flow and pressure of natural gas through the city's system, keeping service safe and steady. Gulf Breeze is replacing the station on Hoffman Drive as part of its regular upgrades to aging infrastructure. This project helps ensure reliable gas service for nearby homes and businesses. This forecast asks: will the new station be up and running by December 31, 2025?\n\n## Resources\n\n* The Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Plan includes funding for natural gas infrastructure upgrades such as regulator station replacements. For example, a \\$100,000 allocation listed in the CIP for regulator station improvements shows the city's commitment to maintaining safe and efficient natural gas flow.\n* Gulf Breeze Natural Gas Department:\n * Mission to provide safe, clean, reliable natural gas at the lowest cost.\n * Website: [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas/)\n\n***\n\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Capital Improvement Plan 2021-2031 (PDF)**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Gulf-Breeze-Capital-Improvement-Program-Plan-2021-2031-Approved-09-14-2020.pdf](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Gulf-Breeze-Capital-Improvement-Program-Plan-2021-2031-Approved-09-14-2020.pdf)\n* **City of Gulf Breeze Natural Gas Department**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/natural-gas/)" }, { "id": 38964, "title": "#16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?", "short_title": "#16 - More than 230 new natural gas connections", "url_title": "#16 - More than 230 new natural gas connections", "slug": "16-more-than-230-new-natural-gas-connections", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:18.641535Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:08:28.751846Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:54:06.208951Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38304, "title": "#16 - Will more than 230 new natural gas connections be installed in Gulf Breeze during 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:37:18.641958Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze runs its own natural gas utility, providing service to homes and businesses across the city. New service installations happen when residents choose natural gas for things like heating, water heaters, or stoves — or when new buildings get connected. These numbers give a sense of how the community is growing and how energy choices are shifting. This forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the city complete more than 230 new natural gas hookups?\n\n**Resources**\n\n* The [City of Gulf Breeze Natural Gas Department page](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/natural-gas/) notes the utility is among the fastest-growing in Florida with ongoing design, construction, and maintenance of gas infrastructure, reflecting expansion activity.\n* The Gulf Breeze 2020-2025 [Strategic Plan PDF](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GB-5-year-strategic-plan-3.pdf) highlights growth in local infrastructure, including utility expansions serving residential and commercial customers.\n* According to the [U.S. Energy Information Administration Florida Profile (2025)](https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=FL) Florida’s natural gas utility sector is robust, supporting residential growth.", "resolution_criteria": "\n\nScroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official utility records from the City of Gulf Breeze confirm that more than 230 new natural gas service installations were completed between January 1 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38964, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286498.23683, "end_time": 1757784639.883, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286498.23683, "end_time": 1757784639.883, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.42515492548946093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.16066607683687129, 1.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze runs its own natural gas utility, providing service to homes and businesses across the city. New service installations happen when residents choose natural gas for things like heating, water heaters, or stoves — or when new buildings get connected. These numbers give a sense of how the community is growing and how energy choices are shifting. This forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will the city complete more than 230 new natural gas hookups?\n\n**Resources**\n\n* The [City of Gulf Breeze Natural Gas Department page](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/natural-gas/) notes the utility is among the fastest-growing in Florida with ongoing design, construction, and maintenance of gas infrastructure, reflecting expansion activity.\n* The Gulf Breeze 2020-2025 [Strategic Plan PDF](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/GB-5-year-strategic-plan-3.pdf) highlights growth in local infrastructure, including utility expansions serving residential and commercial customers.\n* According to the [U.S. Energy Information Administration Florida Profile (2025)](https://www.eia.gov/state/?sid=FL) Florida’s natural gas utility sector is robust, supporting residential growth." }, { "id": 38963, "title": "#15 - Will the City greenlight at least 75% of its 2025 street repaving plans by the end of 2025?", "short_title": "#15 - Will the City greenlight at least 75% of its 2025 street repaving plans", "url_title": "#15 - Will the City greenlight at least 75% of its 2025 street repaving plans", "slug": "15-will-the-city-greenlight-at-least-75-of-its-2025-street-repaving-plans", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:41.728608Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:03:39.197468Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:53:41.926092Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38303, "title": "#15 - Will the City greenlight at least 75% of its 2025 street repaving plans by the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:41.729041Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Before roads can be repaved, the City needs to award contracts and officially authorize work to begin. This process, called issuing a \"notice-to-proceed,\" ensures that paving actually gets underway on schedule. In 2025, Gulf Breeze plans to resurface a number of roads as part of its long-term paving plan. \n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will notices-to-proceed have been issued for at least 75% of the road miles scheduled for resurfacing? \n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *This is the official portal to search meeting documents, resolutions, notices-to-proceed, contract awards, and updates on road resurfacing projects.*", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze issues official notice-to-proceed orders for contracts covering at least 75% of the road mileage scheduled for resurfacing in calendar year 2025. If less than 75% of scheduled miles receive notice-to-proceed by that time, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38963, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286208.698237, "end_time": 1757784484.105, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286208.698237, "end_time": 1757784484.105, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.7239829278190766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.833038171544931, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Before roads can be repaved, the City needs to award contracts and officially authorize work to begin. This process, called issuing a \"notice-to-proceed,\" ensures that paving actually gets underway on schedule. In 2025, Gulf Breeze plans to resurface a number of roads as part of its long-term paving plan. \n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will notices-to-proceed have been issued for at least 75% of the road miles scheduled for resurfacing? \n\n***\n\n## City Council, Meetings, and Budget Sources\n\n* **Search City Council agendas and records:**\n [Gulf Breeze City Council Meetings and Agendas](https://cityofgulfbreeze.civicweb.net/Portal/VirtualLibrary.aspx)\n *This is the official portal to search meeting documents, resolutions, notices-to-proceed, contract awards, and updates on road resurfacing projects.*" }, { "id": 38962, "title": "#14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?", "short_title": "#14 - Resurfaces at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan", "url_title": "#14 - Resurfaces at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan", "slug": "14-resurfaces-at-least-3-miles-of-roads-as-part-of-its-15-year-paving-plan", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:39.435692Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:09:04.600970Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:53:29.179586Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38302, "title": "#14 - Will the City resurface at least 3 miles of roads as part of its 15-year paving plan in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:39.436095Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze is following a 15-year plan to keep city roads in good shape. Each year, a set of streets is selected for repaving based on wear and tear, traffic levels, and maintenance needs. Hitting the annual targets — like resurfacing 3 miles of roads in 2025 — helps the City stay on track and ensures smoother, safer streets for everyone. \n\nFrom the city site:\n\n> **Pavement Rehabilitation**\n> The pavement along Shoreline and Fairpoint Drive will be rehabilitated during the construction of the Multi Use Pathway. The primary purpose of this task is to repair the existing roadway pavement section that is showing signs of base and sub-grade deterioration, above and beyond more typical degradation of only the asphalt surface course. The primary purpose of the pavement rehabilitation is to extend the useful life of the complete pavement section (sub-grade, base, asphalt) in a manner exceeding a basic mill and overlay procedure that would only address issues with the asphalt surface course.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will Gulf Breeze have resurfaced at least 3 miles of road as part of that long-term plan? \n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Road Resurfacing Resources\n\n[Pavement Rehabilitation](https://gb-project-mckimcreed.hub.arcgis.com/) project summary\n\n* **Multi-Use Pathway and Pavement Rehabilitation Project**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/multi-use-pathway-and-pavement-rehabilitation/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/multi-use-pathway-and-pavement-rehabilitation/)\n *Completed project managed by Craig Chamberlin focusing on pathway and pavement rehabilitation. Updated February 2025.*", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if official City of Gulf Breeze records confirm that at least 3 miles of road were resurfaced during calendar year 2025 as part of the 15-year paving plan. Otherwise, it resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757353531.349, "end_time": 1757784490.019, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.864 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757353531.349, "end_time": 1757784490.019, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.864 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8166441925034128 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze is following a 15-year plan to keep city roads in good shape. Each year, a set of streets is selected for repaving based on wear and tear, traffic levels, and maintenance needs. Hitting the annual targets — like resurfacing 3 miles of roads in 2025 — helps the City stay on track and ensures smoother, safer streets for everyone. \n\nFrom the city site:\n\n> **Pavement Rehabilitation**\n> The pavement along Shoreline and Fairpoint Drive will be rehabilitated during the construction of the Multi Use Pathway. The primary purpose of this task is to repair the existing roadway pavement section that is showing signs of base and sub-grade deterioration, above and beyond more typical degradation of only the asphalt surface course. The primary purpose of the pavement rehabilitation is to extend the useful life of the complete pavement section (sub-grade, base, asphalt) in a manner exceeding a basic mill and overlay procedure that would only address issues with the asphalt surface course.\n\nThis forecast asks: by the end of 2025, will Gulf Breeze have resurfaced at least 3 miles of road as part of that long-term plan? \n\n## City of Gulf Breeze Road Resurfacing Resources\n\n[Pavement Rehabilitation](https://gb-project-mckimcreed.hub.arcgis.com/) project summary\n\n* **Multi-Use Pathway and Pavement Rehabilitation Project**\n [https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city\\_project/multi-use-pathway-and-pavement-rehabilitation/](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/city_project/multi-use-pathway-and-pavement-rehabilitation/)\n *Completed project managed by Craig Chamberlin focusing on pathway and pavement rehabilitation. Updated February 2025.*" }, { "id": 38961, "title": "#13 - Will the City receive a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection in 2025?", "short_title": "#13 - The city receives a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection", "url_title": "#13 - The city receives a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection", "slug": "13-the-city-receives-a-250000-grant-for-stormwater-or-shoreline-protection", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:37.160820Z", "published_at": "2025-07-28T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:06:34.452212Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-07-28T17:53:16.935411Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 32810, "type": "tournament", "name": "City of Gulf Breeze Forecasting Contest", "slug": "GB", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screenshot_2025-07-08_at_12.21.14AM.png", "prize_pool": "3000.00", "start_date": "2025-07-28T18:03:58Z", "close_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T12:59:59Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2025-07-08T05:22:00.173558Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T23:12:22.683369Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 38301, "title": "#13 - Will the City receive a $250,000+ grant for stormwater or shoreline protection in 2025?", "created_at": "2025-07-28T17:30:37.161289Z", "open_time": "2025-07-28T18:01:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-07-28T18:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": null, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Gulf Breeze regularly applies for state and federal grants to fund projects that reduce flooding, improve drainage, and protect the shoreline. These funds help the City strengthen its infrastructure without putting extra costs on local taxpayers. In past years, Gulf Breeze has successfully brought in outside support for these kinds of environmental improvements. This forecast asks: will the City win a major grant — \\$250,000 or more — for stormwater or shoreline resiliency work during 2025? Know of a project that could benefit? Or have questions about how these grants are used? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.\n\n## Resources and News\n\n* The City of Gulf Breeze operates an active stormwater management program compliant with EPA and state regulations, engaging in education and infrastructure projects to reduce pollution and flooding ([City of Gulf Breeze Stormwater Management](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/stormwater-management/)).\n* The Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s 2025-2026 Resilient Florida Annual Plan highlights state-level efforts to support flood resilience and shoreline protection with substantial investments. This program funds eligible projects that help harden coastal infrastructure across the state ([FDEP Resilient Florida 2025-2026 Plan](https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/25-26%20Resilient%20Florida%20Annual%20Plan_1.pdf)).\n* Santa Rosa County, which includes Gulf Breeze, received over \\$8.5 million in state funding for water infrastructure and resilience projects in the 2024-2025 fiscal year. This includes grants to improve water supply and resiliency, indirectly supporting Gulf Breeze area infrastructure ([Santa Rosa County Grant Announcement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)).\n* The State of Florida’s water quality programs offer grant opportunities supporting stormwater and shoreline projects. Gulf Breeze has access to competitive grants through programs like Protecting Florida Together, which facilitates multi-agency collaboration and grant funding for water-related projects ([Protecting Florida Together Grants](https://protectingfloridatogether.gov/state-action/grants-submissions))", "resolution_criteria": "Scroll down to the Background section for more on this question and why it's important for our community.\n\nThis question will resolve **Yes** if the City of Gulf Breeze receives at least one external grant of \\$250,000 or more during calendar year 2025, specifically for stormwater management or shoreline resiliency efforts. If no such grant is awarded by the end of 2025, it resolves **No**. Official grant announcements and City records will be used to confirm.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 38961, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757286383.653493, "end_time": 1757784505.393, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757286383.653493, "end_time": 1757784505.393, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.91 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.822963203915285 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.436735677115472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Gulf Breeze regularly applies for state and federal grants to fund projects that reduce flooding, improve drainage, and protect the shoreline. These funds help the City strengthen its infrastructure without putting extra costs on local taxpayers. In past years, Gulf Breeze has successfully brought in outside support for these kinds of environmental improvements. This forecast asks: will the City win a major grant — \\$250,000 or more — for stormwater or shoreline resiliency work during 2025? Know of a project that could benefit? Or have questions about how these grants are used? We'd love to hear from you in the comments.\n\n## Resources and News\n\n* The City of Gulf Breeze operates an active stormwater management program compliant with EPA and state regulations, engaging in education and infrastructure projects to reduce pollution and flooding ([City of Gulf Breeze Stormwater Management](https://cityofgulfbreeze.us/departments/public-works/stormwater-management/)).\n* The Florida Department of Environmental Protection’s 2025-2026 Resilient Florida Annual Plan highlights state-level efforts to support flood resilience and shoreline protection with substantial investments. This program funds eligible projects that help harden coastal infrastructure across the state ([FDEP Resilient Florida 2025-2026 Plan](https://floridadep.gov/sites/default/files/25-26%20Resilient%20Florida%20Annual%20Plan_1.pdf)).\n* Santa Rosa County, which includes Gulf Breeze, received over \\$8.5 million in state funding for water infrastructure and resilience projects in the 2024-2025 fiscal year. This includes grants to improve water supply and resiliency, indirectly supporting Gulf Breeze area infrastructure ([Santa Rosa County Grant Announcement](https://www.santarosa.fl.gov/CivicAlerts.asp?AID=1701\\&ARC=2167)).\n* The State of Florida’s water quality programs offer grant opportunities supporting stormwater and shoreline projects. Gulf Breeze has access to competitive grants through programs like Protecting Florida Together, which facilitates multi-agency collaboration and grant funding for water-related projects ([Protecting Florida Together Grants](https://protectingfloridatogether.gov/state-action/grants-submissions))" } ] }
