Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2600
{ "count": 6351, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2580", "results": [ { "id": 27524, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukraine-withdraw-from-kursk-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.506011Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.073712Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27524, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.506011Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast according to either [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) at any point before October 1, 2024. This question will resolve negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.\n\nIf either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.", "post_id": 27524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336147.710194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336147.710194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.4201441636141124 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2370902951532945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5907161517193226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3380508809928928, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.4268241392932959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1425264508242785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7117781198916961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7010093570283769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 1.4671333950582883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05483270922417936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 16.349873228287958, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 16.349873228287958 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336147.743696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336147.743696, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7409597740477931, 0.2590402259522069 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain." }, { "id": 27523, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-yahya-sinwar-cease-to-be-the-acting-chairman-of-the-hamas-political-bureau-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.410181Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.584407Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27523, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.410181Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was \"[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)\" from capturing Sinwar.\n\nPrevious Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:\n\n- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.\n- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.\n- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, any of the following events happen according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):\n\n- Yahya Sinwar has stepped down or been replaced as Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.\n- Sinwar is captured (even if he is still officially in the Chairman role).\n- Sinwar has died.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if there is no such reporting of any of these events.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 27523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336155.009957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336155.009957, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.275 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4814260810587625 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0701686078568375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.580270491795313, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5489697111656673, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3255689470654538, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0112763025002947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.753058341812878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33851904619089096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336155.043575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336155.043575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.686749988703917, 0.313250011296083 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was \"[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)\" from capturing Sinwar.\n\nPrevious Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:\n\n- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.\n- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.\n- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present." }, { "id": 27522, "title": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-decision-to-reallocate-the-bronze-medal-in-the-womens-floor-exercise-at-the-2024-paris-olympics-from-the-us-to-romania-be-overturned-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.311831Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.215056Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27522, "title": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.311831Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her the bronze medal.\n\nRomania, whose gymnasts Ana Barbosu and Sabrina Maneca-Voinea finished fourth and fifth respectively after the inquiry, protested the decision, claiming that Chiles' inquiry was filed too late. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) agreed with Romania's protest and vacated Chiles' inquiry, officially revising her score and placing her back in fifth place.\n\nAs a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would reallocate the bronze medal to Ana Bǎrbosu. However, USA Gymnastics has [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/g-s1-16509/us-gymnast-jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-return) the CAS ruling, submitting video evidence that allegedly proves Chiles' inquiry was filed within the allowed time frame.\n\n[CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/sport/jordan-chiles-bronze-olympics-controversy-explained/index.html) that the CAS does not have authority to revisit the case.\n\nA [CAS Bulletin](https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin202_2011.pdf) published in 2011 explores the issue of CAS appeals in more detail in the section \"Appeals against Arbitral Awards by the CAS\", starting on page 19 (pdf page 22). The section describes that CAS appeals are heard by the Swiss Federal Tribunal, which is essentially the supreme court of Switzerland, the particular conditions under which an appeal is typically heard, and says the following about the frequency and success of appeals:\n\n>Nowadays the CAS assumes that an appeal will be filed against approximately 10% of its arbitral awards. However, the success rate of these appeals is low. Since the CAS was established in 1984 only five appeals against CAS arbitral awards have succeeded. On average only 1% of all appeals against CAS arbitral awards were successful in 2009 and 2010. If one expresses the number of successful appeals as a percentage of all of the arbitral awards that have so far been delivered by the CAS (1984 – 2010), the success rate is 0.3%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible sources report that the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS)'s decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the Jordan Chiles of the United States to Ana Bǎrbosu of Romania has been overturned on appeal.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if no such decision has been announced before October 1, 2024, or if before October 1, 2024, a higher court hears an appeal and announces that it has upheld the original decision, and credible sources report that no higher level of appeal remains.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336245.172324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.065 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336245.172324, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.065 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08433716760314543 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.015708539450405595, 0.8223342542706604, 0.33432944568041745, 2.0735038845150418, 0.9748450826978713, 3.012710256074978, 0.12200872167164427, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336245.200729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336245.200729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930166804061621, 0.006983319593837925 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her the bronze medal.\n\nRomania, whose gymnasts Ana Barbosu and Sabrina Maneca-Voinea finished fourth and fifth respectively after the inquiry, protested the decision, claiming that Chiles' inquiry was filed too late. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) agreed with Romania's protest and vacated Chiles' inquiry, officially revising her score and placing her back in fifth place.\n\nAs a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would reallocate the bronze medal to Ana Bǎrbosu. However, USA Gymnastics has [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/g-s1-16509/us-gymnast-jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-return) the CAS ruling, submitting video evidence that allegedly proves Chiles' inquiry was filed within the allowed time frame.\n\n[CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/sport/jordan-chiles-bronze-olympics-controversy-explained/index.html) that the CAS does not have authority to revisit the case.\n\nA [CAS Bulletin](https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin202_2011.pdf) published in 2011 explores the issue of CAS appeals in more detail in the section \"Appeals against Arbitral Awards by the CAS\", starting on page 19 (pdf page 22). The section describes that CAS appeals are heard by the Swiss Federal Tribunal, which is essentially the supreme court of Switzerland, the particular conditions under which an appeal is typically heard, and says the following about the frequency and success of appeals:\n\n>Nowadays the CAS assumes that an appeal will be filed against approximately 10% of its arbitral awards. However, the success rate of these appeals is low. Since the CAS was established in 1984 only five appeals against CAS arbitral awards have succeeded. On average only 1% of all appeals against CAS arbitral awards were successful in 2009 and 2010. If one expresses the number of successful appeals as a percentage of all of the arbitral awards that have so far been delivered by the CAS (1984 – 2010), the success rate is 0.3%." }, { "id": 27521, "title": "Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-claude-35-opus-be-released-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.149506Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.590021Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27521, "title": "Will Claude 3.5 Opus be released before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:22:17.149506Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet surprised many in the field of AI by unseating OpenAI's GPT-4o as the world's leading large language model, by [numerous metrics](https://ai.plainenglish.io/anthropic-dominates-openai-a-side-by-side-comparison-of-claude-3-5-sonnet-and-gpt-4o-8cca145a466f), upon its release on June 20, 2024.\n\nRegarding future plans, Anthropic [has stated](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet): \"Our aim is to substantially improve the tradeoff curve between intelligence, speed, and cost every few months. To complete the Claude 3.5 model family, we’ll be releasing Claude 3.5 Haiku and Claude 3.5 Opus later this year.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if a member of the general public can access Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Opus model before October 1, 2024 without first joining a waitlist or participating in an early access or testing phase.", "fine_print": "- The resolution will rely on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), including that it may rely on the ability of Metaculus employees to access Claude 3.5 Opus.\n- \"Access\" may be via API, the Claude interface, or any other method that allows interaction with Claude 3.5 Opus.\n- Models that do not include \"Claude 3.5 Opus\" in the name will not be considered for resolution of this question.", "post_id": 27521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336202.866323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6940000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7625 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336202.866323, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.6940000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7625 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30599999999999994, 0.6940000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.5895690545847012 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9901457454899416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.40158764796586965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.880623066194766, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.3968658204474105, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8554797730531456, 1.3154090380361876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0646131558445073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -70.83964419694355, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -70.83964419694355 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724336202.891793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724336202.891793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.43867173524849845, 0.5613282647515015 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Claude 3.5 Sonnet surprised many in the field of AI by unseating OpenAI's GPT-4o as the world's leading large language model, by [numerous metrics](https://ai.plainenglish.io/anthropic-dominates-openai-a-side-by-side-comparison-of-claude-3-5-sonnet-and-gpt-4o-8cca145a466f), upon its release on June 20, 2024.\n\nRegarding future plans, Anthropic [has stated](https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-3-5-sonnet): \"Our aim is to substantially improve the tradeoff curve between intelligence, speed, and cost every few months. To complete the Claude 3.5 model family, we’ll be releasing Claude 3.5 Haiku and Claude 3.5 Opus later this year.\"" }, { "id": 27515, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apple-announce-an-iphone-with-40w-fast-charging-by-the-end-of-its-september-2024-event", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:04:46.685075Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.284552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T14:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T14:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27515, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T13:04:46.685075Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T14:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T14:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-10T14:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/): \n\n>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.\n\n>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models are capable of up to 27W peak charging speeds with an appropriate USB-C power adapter, while official MagSafe chargers from Apple and authorized third parties can wirelessly charge the iPhone 15 models at up to 15W. All four iPhone 15 models can charge up to 50% in around 30 minutes with a 20W or higher power adapter, which is the same as Apple's previous iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 models.\n\nApple's highly-anticipated launch event is [expected](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/iphone-16-launch-apple-september-event-to-also-debut-watch-series-10-airpods-4-heres-what-we-know/articleshow/112626834.cms?from=mdr) to be on September 10, 2024. It is widely expected to launch the iPhone 16, which will feature a rumored four new models, which could have larger displays than current iPhone models, faster processors, and improved AI features. \n\nAccording to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/07/16/apple-iphone-16-pro-design-upgrade-promises-key-feature-boost-report-says-iphone-16-pro-max/), this would roughly double the speed at which the phone could be charged. At the current fastest charging speed of 27W, going from zero to 50% takes 30 minutes, while a 40W charger would do it in 15 minutes. A few Android phones already feature faster changing speeds, such as the Samsung Galaxy S24 at 45W, the Xiaomi 14 Pro at options of up to 120W, and the Motorola Edge 40 Pro at 125W.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the end of its September 2024 event (the expected iPhone 16 event), Apple officially announces the existence of an iPhone model that supports 40 watts (or higher) charging. If this does not occur by the end of its September 2024 event, or if no iPhone 16 Apple event is held before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Either wired or wireless charging will count.\n\nThe official announcement can come from any of Apple's channels including but not limited to: a product launch announcement (such as the [expected](https://wccftech.com/iphone-16-launch-event-in-september/) Apple event possibly on September 10, 2024), press releases, announcements on Apple's official social media accounts, or information published on Apple's website indicating that 40W or higher iPhone charging is supported.\n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information will not count.\n\nAlthough a Yes resolution will most likely come from an announcement of a new upcoming iPhone model, possibly called the iPhone 16, if Apple instead announces that an existing model of iPhone has been updated to support the faster charging, that will count as well.\n\nPlease note that the iPhone with ≥40W charging need not be for sale for the question to resolve as **Yes**. Resolution is based on the announcement or publication of the information by Apple.\n\nVague statements such as \"faster charging\" without specifying wattage will not count.", "post_id": 27515, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724508948.459629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724508948.459629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.7135279346261603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4921720506514511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08517259963641256, 0.8249082519936364, 0.13877826550189343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.05830818042997517, 0.44071068269949837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5529370533078035, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 2.0488496471514073, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9090545283477725, 0.15612734595056516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -118.44245711374276, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -118.44245711374276 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724508948.492729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724508948.492729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3583260802299848, 0.6416739197700152 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/): \n\n>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.\n\n>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models are capable of up to 27W peak charging speeds with an appropriate USB-C power adapter, while official MagSafe chargers from Apple and authorized third parties can wirelessly charge the iPhone 15 models at up to 15W. All four iPhone 15 models can charge up to 50% in around 30 minutes with a 20W or higher power adapter, which is the same as Apple's previous iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 models.\n\nApple's highly-anticipated launch event is [expected](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/iphone-16-launch-apple-september-event-to-also-debut-watch-series-10-airpods-4-heres-what-we-know/articleshow/112626834.cms?from=mdr) to be on September 10, 2024. It is widely expected to launch the iPhone 16, which will feature a rumored four new models, which could have larger displays than current iPhone models, faster processors, and improved AI features. \n\nAccording to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/07/16/apple-iphone-16-pro-design-upgrade-promises-key-feature-boost-report-says-iphone-16-pro-max/), this would roughly double the speed at which the phone could be charged. At the current fastest charging speed of 27W, going from zero to 50% takes 30 minutes, while a 40W charger would do it in 15 minutes. A few Android phones already feature faster changing speeds, such as the Samsung Galaxy S24 at 45W, the Xiaomi 14 Pro at options of up to 120W, and the Motorola Edge 40 Pro at 125W." }, { "id": 27493, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-month-over-month-percentage-increase-in-core-cpi-inflation-in-the-us-in-august-2024-be-05-or-more", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:29.375228Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.166395Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27493, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.5% or more?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:29.375228Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the United States in August 2024 is 0.5% or more, as reported by the [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).", "fine_print": "- Core CPI is defined as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy prices.\n\n- The percentage change will be the rounded value reported by BLS in its release. For example, the figure for July 2024, was [reported as 0.2 percent](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=increased%200.1%20percent.-,The%20index%20for%20all%20items%20less%20food%20and%20energy%20rose%200.2%20percent%20in%20July,-%2C%20after%20rising%200.1).\n\n- The question will resolve based on the first reported core CPI numbers for August 2024 and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\n- If the BLS fails to release the August 2024 core CPI data by the end of September 2024, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "post_id": 27493, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423136.504748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.175 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423136.504748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.175 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.13248029230623967 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7948094965534147, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 1.1818758613293094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8392777638066662, 0.27308960725456716, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5041580525679468, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20510764775594886, 0.09630553750946041, 0.9147633448549574, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13742269458398226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423136.534349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423136.534349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9614039128518761, 0.03859608714812389 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 27492, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-month-over-month-percentage-increase-in-core-cpi-inflation-in-the-us-in-august-2024-be-04", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:29.246394Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.526587Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27492, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.4%?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:29.246394Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T12:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the United States in August 2024 is 0.4%, as reported by the [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).", "fine_print": "- Core CPI is defined as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy prices.\n\n- The percentage change will be the rounded value reported by BLS in its release. For example, the figure for July 2024, was [reported as 0.2 percent](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=increased%200.1%20percent.-,The%20index%20for%20all%20items%20less%20food%20and%20energy%20rose%200.2%20percent%20in%20July,-%2C%20after%20rising%200.1).\n\n- The question will resolve based on the first reported core CPI numbers for August 2024 and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\n- If the BLS fails to release the August 2024 core CPI data by the end of September 2024, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "post_id": 27492, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423138.354445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423138.354445, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.18534487438254504 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 1.081820272242251, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.8640456412887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6093063966539898, 0.3268262380230357, 0.7640856351447469, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.10985474032489119, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 1.0004403774125288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12240282705354902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423138.384104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423138.384104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9466567349461625, 0.05334326505383752 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 27491, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-month-over-month-percentage-increase-in-core-cpi-inflation-in-the-us-in-august-2024-be-03", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:29.106084Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.327507Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27491, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.3%?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:29.106084Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the United States in August 2024 is 0.3%, as reported by the [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).", "fine_print": "- Core CPI is defined as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy prices.\n\n- The percentage change will be the rounded value reported by BLS in its release. For example, the figure for July 2024, was [reported as 0.2 percent](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=increased%200.1%20percent.-,The%20index%20for%20all%20items%20less%20food%20and%20energy%20rose%200.2%20percent%20in%20July,-%2C%20after%20rising%200.1).\n\n- The question will resolve based on the first reported core CPI numbers for August 2024 and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\n- If the BLS fails to release the August 2024 core CPI data by the end of September 2024, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "post_id": 27491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423359.38686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423359.38686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.22349822110953674 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 1.5063524247540274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46970935028081295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.010381142261586365, 0.8331016997804591, 0.334268237955926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.8981326213582779, 0.7477959545495109, 0.0, 0.21725387616188926, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -105.88936890535685, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -105.88936890535685 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423359.38686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423359.38686, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8721243226769221, 0.12787567732307792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 27490, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-month-over-month-percentage-increase-in-core-cpi-inflation-in-the-us-in-august-2024-be-02", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.978319Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.826828Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27490, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.2%?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.978319Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T13:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the United States in August 2024 is 0.2%, as reported by the [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).", "fine_print": "- Core CPI is defined as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy prices.\n\n- The percentage change will be the rounded value reported by BLS in its release. For example, the figure for July 2024, was [reported as 0.2 percent](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=increased%200.1%20percent.-,The%20index%20for%20all%20items%20less%20food%20and%20energy%20rose%200.2%20percent%20in%20July,-%2C%20after%20rising%200.1).\n\n- The question will resolve based on the first reported core CPI numbers for August 2024 and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\n- If the BLS fails to release the August 2024 core CPI data by the end of September 2024, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "post_id": 27490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423192.27278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.49165 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423192.27278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.49165 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5083500000000001, 0.49165 ], "means": [ 0.4738507017894657 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5424655621917919, 0.8024803711430628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1961789105135794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.12974357522700947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40108248193457263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.7431993483974242, 0.7616901603632711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7855660716638331, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 2.3894042655701333, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.3894042655701333 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423192.27278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423192.27278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.639762594931344, 0.360237405068656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 27489, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-month-over-month-percentage-increase-in-core-cpi-inflation-in-the-us-in-august-2024-be-01", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.849915Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.310562Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27489, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.1%?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.849915Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the United States in August 2024 is 0.1%, as reported by the [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).", "fine_print": "- Core CPI is defined as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy prices.\n\n- The percentage change will be the rounded value reported by BLS in its release. For example, the figure for July 2024, was [reported as 0.2 percent](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=increased%200.1%20percent.-,The%20index%20for%20all%20items%20less%20food%20and%20energy%20rose%200.2%20percent%20in%20July,-%2C%20after%20rising%200.1).\n\n- The question will resolve based on the first reported core CPI numbers for August 2024 and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\n- If the BLS fails to release the August 2024 core CPI data by the end of September 2024, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "post_id": 27489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423235.858161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423235.858161, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2348594070450996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5133913993366926, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.14364153533487556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.34848960163546905, 0.42031229138251813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 1.1878843389726268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.640429166543248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30122029034435227, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2682456184822639, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423235.892888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423235.892888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8928885383096173, 0.10711146169038266 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 27488, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-month-over-month-percentage-increase-in-core-cpi-inflation-in-the-us-in-august-2024-be-00-or-less", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.431650Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.715798Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27488, "title": "Will the month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the US in August 2024 be 0.0% or less?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.431650Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T12:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the seasonally adjusted month over month percentage increase in core CPI inflation in the United States in August 2024 is 0.0% or less, as reported by the [BLS](https://www.bls.gov/cpi/).", "fine_print": "- Core CPI is defined as the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), excluding food and energy prices.\n\n- The percentage change will be the rounded value reported by BLS in its release. For example, the figure for July 2024, was [reported as 0.2 percent](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm#:~:text=increased%200.1%20percent.-,The%20index%20for%20all%20items%20less%20food%20and%20energy%20rose%200.2%20percent%20in%20July,-%2C%20after%20rising%200.1).\n\n- The question will resolve based on the first reported core CPI numbers for August 2024 and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\n- If the BLS fails to release the August 2024 core CPI data by the end of September 2024, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "post_id": 27488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423305.659231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423305.659231, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.16800597895860242 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8355804261814468, 1.1321888588057902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.38043555332875517, 0.19073805166550978, 0.7598688249099286, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.9778163735392204, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7377285829453748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.128567274583717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15541128407141663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 74.84612330040356, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 74.84612330040356 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423305.691769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423305.691769, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9388256662892498, 0.061174333710750164 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the context of growing concerns about a potential US recession in 2024, inflation remains a key factor in shaping monetary policy decisions and economic outcomes. Throughout 2023 and early 2024, the Federal Reserve has been grappling with persistently high inflation, which has led to a series of [interest rate hikes](https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#https://apnews.com/article/inflation-interest-rates-federal-reserve-economy-jobs-f43eff13abf862ac84cd9f3ef89201db#) to tame price pressures.\n\nCore inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, is often seen as a more stable measure of underlying inflation trends. The Fed closely watches core inflation when assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy.\n\nIn recent months, there have been signs that inflation may be moderating, with some economists expecting a gradual return to the Fed's 2% target. However, if inflation proves to be more persistent than anticipated, it could complicate the Fed's efforts to support the economy in the face of a potential downturn.\n\nThis question focuses on the US core inflation reading for August 2024, which is [scheduled to be released](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm) by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on September 11, 2024. The change in core inflation will provide insight into the trajectory of underlying price pressures and could influence market expectations for Fed policy.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1sOJ2&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 27487, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-more-than-50-bps-at-their-september-meeting", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.298978Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.386570Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27487, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by more than 50 bps at their September meeting?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.298978Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States cuts rates by more than 50 bps at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. If the Federal Reserve issues an emergency rate cut prior to the meeting and then cuts rates again at the scheduled September meeting, the question will resolve as the size of the cut issued at the September meeting only.\n\n- The question will resolve based on the official policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, rather than market expectations or speculation.", "post_id": 27487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423140.660452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423140.660452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.2852278720969236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0814176464278084, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23091727463553763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3705988023494522, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0806456665567371, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9678257346156645, 1.2233893656917498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.712310000716739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2536380807761582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423140.699688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423140.699688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8613868640996367, 0.13861313590036323 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27486, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-50-bps-at-their-september-meeting", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.170780Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.943569Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27486, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 50 bps at their September meeting?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:28.170780Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States cuts rates by 50 bps at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. 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This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27485, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-fed-cut-rates-by-25-bps-at-their-september-meeting", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:27.978817Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.244982Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27485, "title": "Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps at their September meeting?", "created_at": "2024-08-21T12:53:27.978817Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States cuts rates by 25 bps at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. 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Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. 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This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the Federal Reserve of the United States holds rates steady at the September 2024 FOMC meeting. \n\nIf the September FOMC meeting is cancelled, this question will resolve as “Annulled”.", "fine_print": "- The relevant Fed policy rate is the federal funds target. The question will resolve according to the decrease in the target rate announced at the FOMC meeting, such as those shown historically at the [Open Market Operations webpage](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm).\n\n- The rate cut will be relative to the target rate prior to the start of the meeting. If the Federal Reserve issues an emergency rate cut prior to the meeting and then cuts rates again at the scheduled September meeting, the question will resolve as the size of the cut issued at the September meeting only.\n\n- The question will resolve based on the official policy announcements from the Federal Reserve, rather than market expectations or speculation.", "post_id": 27484, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423093.193715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423093.193715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3546309299897665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43456290097694367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 1.0337991717578503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 1.6980965657768823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8778985169880916, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7953569814754423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.19921907598878902, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.5527304565788491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423093.238568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423093.238568, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7422971473223893, 0.2577028526776107 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In early August 2024, bond markets have been rallying strongly as traders increasingly bet that the US economy is deteriorating rapidly, potentially heading towards a [recession](https://apnews.com/article/economy-jobs-unemployment-federal-reserve-inflation-22095766804d9c1532b4fcc29565be49). This shift in sentiment has been driven by a series of weaker-than-expected economic data releases, most notably the July jobs report which showed that employers created just 114,000 jobs, far below economists' forecasts, while the unemployment rate rose.\n\nThe sharp move in market expectations marks a significant change from earlier in the year, when worries about persistent inflation dominated the narrative. Now, investors appear to be convinced that economic growth will stall unless the Federal Reserve begins to lower interest rates from the current two-decade high of around 5.3%.\n\nFutures markets in early August [were pricing in](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-traders-bet-big-fed-190000721.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAAdfa1un1juMjZYChE0Phs5vqjCYVBTfWq5endU3ABCBGCmHIUKZkqTLazDw7_s_fodV9UBEtwlOJd7Ev6dczGYruUERgtgKI6d0NfQ4TcOahRW-u9NBgbitp8itVfGOnZWGqdfd_mpp_N3E3IrHQV-RuRmbEAjurglNZFxOlI22) roughly five quarter-point rate cuts from the Fed through the end of 2024, with some even betting on the possibility of an emergency inter-meeting cut within the next week. Several prominent Wall Street economists, including those at Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase, have revised their forecasts to predict half-percentage-point rate cuts at both the September and November FOMC meetings. As of August 19, the [CME Group FedWatch tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) is anticipating approximately 100 bps reducing in the target rate by the end of the year.\n\nThe next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is [scheduled](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm) to be held on September 17 and 18, 2024." }, { "id": 27453, "title": "Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?", "short_title": "Bangladesh elections in 6 months?", "url_title": "Bangladesh elections in 6 months?", "slug": "bangladesh-elections-in-6-months", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-20T10:44:10.006269Z", "published_at": "2024-08-23T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.274919Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-23T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, 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"visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27453, "title": "Will Bangladesh hold parliamentary elections within 6 months of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's August 5, 2024 ouster?", "created_at": "2024-08-20T10:44:10.006269Z", "open_time": "2024-08-23T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-26T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-26T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-02-06T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-05T02:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-08T02:28:38.006182Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Bangladesh, within a context of [democratic backsliding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_by_country#Bangladesh) and claimed Indian influence, a popular uprising of millions of people in the streets of Dhaka ejected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5.\n\n[Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2006/yunus/biographical/) was called to lead a caretaker government, with tasks including organizing fresh Parliamentary elections.\n\nWill they take place within six months of Hasina's ouster?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if elections to Jatiya Sangsad, the Parliament of Bangladesh, are held on or before February 5, 2025, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting.\n\nIf there are no reports that this has occurred before February 5, 2025 (regardless of the reason), this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The reference date for the election shall be the last day where votes may be cast, after which counting begins. So early/advance/mail-in votes happening prior to that date do not count.", "post_id": 27453, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735664566.82438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735664566.82438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0530614663061001 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.988687332889193, 1.6939760671310424, 1.1068779256603858, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.4214801054065146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 40.889375868187415, "peer_score": 6.627804167877986, "coverage": 0.9983096796164865, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9983096796164865, "spot_peer_score": 7.248288512509289, "spot_baseline_score": -55.63933485243855, "baseline_archived_score": 40.889375868187415, "peer_archived_score": 6.627804167877986, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.248288512509289, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -55.63933485243855 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289097.321031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289097.321031, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9764398473151036, 0.02356015268489638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Bangladesh, within a context of [democratic backsliding](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_backsliding_by_country#Bangladesh) and claimed Indian influence, a popular uprising of millions of people in the streets of Dhaka ejected Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina on August 5.\n\n[Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus](https://www.nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2006/yunus/biographical/) was called to lead a caretaker government, with tasks including organizing fresh Parliamentary elections.\n\nWill they take place within six months of Hasina's ouster?" }, { "id": 27447, "title": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-either-of-donald-trumps-campaign-managers-get-fired-resign-or-otherwise-leave-their-positions-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-20T01:17:45.732910Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.864778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T13:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T13:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign: \n\n- Chris LaCivita \n- Susie Wiles\n\nIf there is no such report before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The addition of a new co-campaign manager will not affect resolution.\n\nIn addition to resigning or otherwise being terminated as campaign manager, credible reports that LaCivita or Wiles have been demoted to other positions within the Trump Campaign, such as senior advisor, will also resolve this question as Yes, since this question is asking whether they remain as campaign manager.", "post_id": 27447, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423261.631612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423261.631612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4951225402922681 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.12377442688140071, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8006262589549378, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9393837758251564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3415166921992423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5165517535521387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6756690407521562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0420146125852783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724423261.668098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724423261.668098, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6183538397653032, 0.38164616023469683 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"" }, { "id": 27446, "title": "Will Kamala Harris say \"artificial intelligence\" or \"AI\" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kamala-harris-say-artificial-intelligence-or-ai-in-her-2024-democratic-national-convention-keynote-speech", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-20T01:17:45.536452Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.571227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**\n> \n> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.\n> \n> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company.<br/>\n> ...\n> \n> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.\n> \n> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.\n> \n> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.\n> \n> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.”<br/>\n> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Greg Brockman returns to work at OpenAI (in either 2024 or 2025) following his leave of absence, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). This question resolves as **No** if, following his leave of absence, Brockman exits OpenAI without returning, or does not return by January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27441, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731933069.414875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731933069.414875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8924788438385652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2909169046675799, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29337191374798577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.17269506268784 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.03738017476958668, "peer_score": 8.421421229260583, "coverage": 0.5023904148501306, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9929710278674888, "spot_peer_score": -34.6592993197485, "baseline_archived_score": -0.03738017476958668, "peer_archived_score": 8.421421229260583, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -34.6592993197485 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287319.71275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287319.71275, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8531952437174088, 0.14680475628259113 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> **Where have OpenAI’s founders gone?**\n> \n> Just two of OpenAI’s 11-strong founding team are still active at the ChatGPT maker, after an exodus following November’s attempted boardroom coup against chief executive Sam Altman.\n> \n> Three co-founders have departed so far this year, including John Schulman, who [defected](https://www.ft.com/content/4135d3c0-576a-4964-b79b-4242f8cb2471) to its artificial intelligence rival Anthropic this week. Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s president, also said on Monday he would be taking extended leave from the company.<br/>\n> ...\n> \n> Brockman is a core member of OpenAI’s founding team. He was persuaded by Altman and Musk to leave his job as chief technology officer at financial technology company Stripe and take on the same position at OpenAI.\n> \n> He has been a key Altman ally since the beginning. When the board moved against Altman in a coup in November, Brockman was also removed as a director. The two returned to their posts together when the board backtracked five days later.\n> \n> On Monday, the company’s president announced he would be taking a sabbatical for the rest of the year.\n> \n> “First time to relax since co-founding OpenAI 9 years ago,” he [wrote](https://x.com/gdb/status/1821716026448633933) on X. “I’ve poured my life for the past 9 years into OpenAI, including the entirety of my marriage. Our work is important to me, but so is life.”<br/>\n> [—Hammond, 2024](https://www.ft.com/content/638f67f7-5375-47fc-b3a7-af7c9e05b9e0)" }, { "id": 27440, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?", "short_title": "iPhone 40W Fast Charging at September Event?", "url_title": "iPhone 40W Fast Charging at September Event?", "slug": "iphone-40w-fast-charging-at-september-event", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-19T23:12:42.008417Z", "published_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.033335Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 66, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27440, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with 40W fast charging by the end of its September 2024 event?", "created_at": "2024-08-19T23:12:42.008417Z", "open_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-10T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-09T18:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/): \n\n>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.\n\n>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models are capable of up to 27W peak charging speeds with an appropriate USB-C power adapter, while official MagSafe chargers from Apple and authorized third parties can wirelessly charge the iPhone 15 models at up to 15W. All four iPhone 15 models can charge up to 50% in around 30 minutes with a 20W or higher power adapter, which is the same as Apple's previous iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 models.\n\nApple's highly-anticipated launch event is [expected](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/iphone-16-launch-apple-september-event-to-also-debut-watch-series-10-airpods-4-heres-what-we-know/articleshow/112626834.cms?from=mdr) to be on September 10, 2024. It is widely expected to launch the iPhone 16, which will feature a rumored four new models, which could have larger displays than current iPhone models, faster processors, and improved AI features. \n\nAccording to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/07/16/apple-iphone-16-pro-design-upgrade-promises-key-feature-boost-report-says-iphone-16-pro-max/), this would roughly double the speed at which the phone could be charged. At the current fastest charging speed of 27W, going from zero to 50% takes 30 minutes, while a 40W charger would do it in 15 minutes. A few Android phones already feature faster changing speeds, such as the Samsung Galaxy S24 at 45W, the Xiaomi 14 Pro at options of up to 120W, and the Motorola Edge 40 Pro at 125W.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the end of its September 2024 event (the expected iPhone 16 event), Apple officially announces the existence of an iPhone model that supports 40 watts (or higher) charging. If this does not occur by the end of its September 2024 event, or if no iPhone 16 Apple event is held before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Either wired or wireless charging will count.\n\nThe official announcement can come from any of Apple's channels including but not limited to: a product launch announcement (such as the [expected](https://wccftech.com/iphone-16-launch-event-in-september/) Apple event possibly on September 10, 2024), press releases, announcements on Apple's official social media accounts, or information published on Apple's website indicating that 40W or higher iPhone charging is supported.\n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information will not count.\n\nAlthough a Yes resolution will most likely come from an announcement of a new upcoming iPhone model, possibly called the iPhone 16, if Apple instead announces that an existing model of iPhone has been updated to support the faster charging, that will count as well.\n\nPlease note that the iPhone with ≥40W charging need not be for sale for the question to resolve as **Yes**. Resolution is based on the announcement or publication of the information by Apple.\n\nVague statements such as \"faster charging\" without specifying wattage will not count.", "post_id": 27440, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725960486.169302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725960486.169302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0676923053196407 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.576412817735141, 5.881357618951125, 0.2118020448654148, 0.0, 0.4955742943419901, 2.377101584268659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24585267888888213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07297864542578526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015753119476699363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12213964696863193, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007576017002229459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007730636177887338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007683132160872665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010256932132203396, 0.03372481884086813, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.030612059041402177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06807997329511349, 0.0, 0.003928092025013086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006774755525143019, 0.0, 0.12191964179870568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18196907061562104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05536264726386741, 0.0910604438880782, 0.13741967586162077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1258632791308913 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0758572390412691, "coverage": 0.9616190936073229, "baseline_score": -63.578321073903616, "spot_peer_score": -22.77473722140088, "peer_archived_score": 0.0758572390412691, "baseline_archived_score": -63.578321073903616, "spot_peer_archived_score": -22.77473722140088 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725905651.245881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725905651.245881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30549476914870577, 0.6945052308512942 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 179, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Mac Rumors](https://www.macrumors.com/2024/07/10/iphone-16-pro-40w-fast-charging-20w-magsafe/): \n\n>Apple's forthcoming iPhone 16 Pro and iPhone 16 Pro Max will support 40W wired fast charging and 20W MagSafe charging, claims a rumor currently swirling around China.\n\n>Right now, iPhone 15 and iPhone 15 Pro models are capable of up to 27W peak charging speeds with an appropriate USB-C power adapter, while official MagSafe chargers from Apple and authorized third parties can wirelessly charge the iPhone 15 models at up to 15W. All four iPhone 15 models can charge up to 50% in around 30 minutes with a 20W or higher power adapter, which is the same as Apple's previous iPhone 13 and iPhone 14 models.\n\nApple's highly-anticipated launch event is [expected](https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/magazines/panache/iphone-16-launch-apple-september-event-to-also-debut-watch-series-10-airpods-4-heres-what-we-know/articleshow/112626834.cms?from=mdr) to be on September 10, 2024. It is widely expected to launch the iPhone 16, which will feature a rumored four new models, which could have larger displays than current iPhone models, faster processors, and improved AI features. \n\nAccording to [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidphelan/2024/07/16/apple-iphone-16-pro-design-upgrade-promises-key-feature-boost-report-says-iphone-16-pro-max/), this would roughly double the speed at which the phone could be charged. At the current fastest charging speed of 27W, going from zero to 50% takes 30 minutes, while a 40W charger would do it in 15 minutes. A few Android phones already feature faster changing speeds, such as the Samsung Galaxy S24 at 45W, the Xiaomi 14 Pro at options of up to 120W, and the Motorola Edge 40 Pro at 125W." } ] }
