Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2600
{ "count": 5967, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2620", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2580", "results": [ { "id": 25458, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2025-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "short_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "url_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "slug": "will-the-last-communication-from-voyager", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540208Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.239125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25458, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2025-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.540208Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve as YES if the last credible signal from Voyager 1 is received between 2025-12-31 and 2032-12-31, after no signal has been received for one year, and NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'" }, { "id": 25456, "title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU between 2025-01-01 and 2040-01-01?", "short_title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU bet", "url_title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU bet", "slug": "will-a-west-balkan-state-join-the-eu-bet", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.531353Z", "published_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.556613Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25456, "title": "Will a West Balkan state join the EU between 2025-01-01 and 2040-01-01?", "created_at": "2024-06-17T13:39:39.531353Z", "open_time": "2024-06-17T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-25T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27. Other states could join the EU. The European Commission website states that Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries. It also lists Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if any of the following states joins the EU between 2025-01-01 and 2040-01-01: Albania, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo or any new state within the May 2021 territory of those 6 entities. The question will resolve as the date of accession itself, rather than e.g. the signing of a Treaty of Accession. Resolution will require both credible media reports and a European Commission source. The incorporation of any part of any of the entities listed into an existing member state would not count to resolve the question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25456, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The European Union currently consists of 27 member states. The most recent state to join was Croatia on July 1, 2013, while Bulgaria and Romania joined on January 1, 2007 and 10 states joined on May 1, 2004. The UK left in 2020, reducing the number of members from 28 to 27. Other states could join the EU. The European Commission website states that Albania, the Republic of North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Turkey are candidate countries. It also lists Bosnia & Herzegovina and Kosovo as potential candidates which have a clear prospect of joining the EU in the future but have not yet been granted candidate country status." }, { "id": 25416, "title": "Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?", "short_title": "Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?", "url_title": "Will Joe Biden Grant Clemency to Hunter?", "slug": "will-joe-biden-grant-clemency-to-hunter", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-12T23:41:40.832596Z", "published_at": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.478950Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 114, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25416, "title": "Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-06-12T23:41:40.832596Z", "open_time": "2024-06-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-21T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-02T00:58:57.715229Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-19T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, [was convicted](https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-trial-federal-charges-delaware-5dd8a9380235c6360a1ddb691ef24a06) of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.\n\nPresident Biden [said \"Yes\"](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-tells-muir-wouldnt-pardon-son-hunter/story?id=110904482) to both questions when asked by ABC News whether he would accept the court's ruling and whether he would rule out pardoning Hunter. Regarding the question of whether Biden would commute the sentence of his son, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was non-committal, [saying](https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-gun-conviction-commutation-ed69379b56bd1d63f3ddd0d79438746c) \"I just don’t have anything beyond that\" in response to a question on the topic. \n\nJoe Biden's first term ends on January 20, 2025, and if he loses the election, it is the last day on which he can grant clemencies. Through June 12, 2024, Biden had issued 24 pardons and 129 commutations to individuals, according to the DOJ's databases. Additionally, on October 6, 2022, he issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) offering a blanket pardon to anyone convicted federally or in Washington, D.C., for crimes related to marijuana possession, which covered over 6,500 individuals, [according to](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/biden-to-pardon-all-prior-federal-offenses-of-simple-marijuana-possession-.html) the White House.\n\nIf President Biden wins a 2nd term and does not grant clemency to Hunter before January 21, 2025, this question will likely be renewed for his 2nd term, depending on forecaster interest.", "resolution_criteria": "If Joe Biden grants any clemency to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025, this question resolves as **Yes**. If this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe President of the United States's clemency actions consist of either pardons of people or commutations of their sentences. This question therefore resolves based on these two databases from the Department of Justice: \n\n1. [Pardons Granted](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/pardons-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present) \n2. [Commutations Granted](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/commutations-granted-president-joseph-biden-2021-present) \n\nIf those resources are unavailable but the pardon or commutation unambiguously happened (for example in the case of a blanket pardon which covers Hunter Biden in its scope, discussed in the Fine Print), then this question may resolve based on other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "In case of partial pardons or clemencies (for example if Hunter Biden is pardoned for one charge but not the others), this question still resolves as Yes.\n\nClemency will only count if it is publicly disclosed. Therefore, secret pardons will not count unless they are publicly disclosed before January 21, 2025.\n\nIf a wide-reaching blanket pardon or commutation proclamation includes Hunter Biden within its scope, then this question will resolve as Yes. For example, in October 2022 Joe Biden issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) that \"announced a full, unconditional, and categorical pardon for certain prior federal and D.C. offenses of simple possession of marijuana.\" To take a hypothetical example based on this, if President Biden pardons all firearms purchasers who were unlawful users of or addicted to controlled substances, which is one of the [felony charges](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Weiss_special_counsel_investigation#Special_counsel_and_firearm_indictment) for which Hunter was convicted, then this would resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 25416, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733100529.785453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.516 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733100529.785453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 113, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.28 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.516 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.72, 0.28 ], "means": [ 0.37182007370156017 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11286730788894205, 1.0493065855498576, 0.16192468556616407, 0.20820915709712634, 0.4580959775949231, 0.30681597161417923, 0.08102804197234353, 0.4815954290908546, 0.0035880521054971015, 1.5167115704955272, 2.0585023727355862, 0.00013664899431769823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3851290144890181, 0.7156846287111164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5325141480014763, 0.6702721948220743, 0.0, 0.5890529285135404, 0.0, 0.11708390803901265, 0.019823381585149194, 0.1039811602810989, 0.07206795304728328, 0.4133951069475082, 0.0, 0.675202221351596, 0.07669735436908495, 0.012461046076939902, 0.6294085827390126, 0.06353667767035587, 0.41157529974478024, 0.1751782248799461, 0.8270920337917759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7101449842243808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37288133311399374, 0.0, 0.02294876372005778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03205632296393693, 0.7883280510469263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023635982998960903, 0.00692033179503728, 0.0, 0.06768491944159849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20508504545130907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21877483394325103, 0.0, 1.3132479372377355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.0948675314425023 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -105.55519896625474, "peer_score": 57.319958180966196, "coverage": 0.7718401749322543, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9993299107017606, "spot_peer_score": 42.354478522229826, "baseline_archived_score": -105.55519896625474, "peer_archived_score": 57.319958180966196, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.354478522229826 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289312.260767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289312.260767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7117189547436233, 0.28828104525637666 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 11, 2024, Hunter Biden, son of US President Joe Biden, [was convicted](https://apnews.com/article/hunter-biden-gun-trial-federal-charges-delaware-5dd8a9380235c6360a1ddb691ef24a06) of all three felony charges stemming from falsely certifying he was not illegally using or addicted to controlled narcotics.\n\nPresident Biden [said \"Yes\"](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/biden-tells-muir-wouldnt-pardon-son-hunter/story?id=110904482) to both questions when asked by ABC News whether he would accept the court's ruling and whether he would rule out pardoning Hunter. Regarding the question of whether Biden would commute the sentence of his son, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre was non-committal, [saying](https://apnews.com/article/president-joe-biden-hunter-gun-conviction-commutation-ed69379b56bd1d63f3ddd0d79438746c) \"I just don’t have anything beyond that\" in response to a question on the topic. \n\nJoe Biden's first term ends on January 20, 2025, and if he loses the election, it is the last day on which he can grant clemencies. Through June 12, 2024, Biden had issued 24 pardons and 129 commutations to individuals, according to the DOJ's databases. Additionally, on October 6, 2022, he issued a [proclamation](https://www.justice.gov/pardon/presidential-proclamation-marijuana-possession) offering a blanket pardon to anyone convicted federally or in Washington, D.C., for crimes related to marijuana possession, which covered over 6,500 individuals, [according to](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/06/biden-to-pardon-all-prior-federal-offenses-of-simple-marijuana-possession-.html) the White House.\n\nIf President Biden wins a 2nd term and does not grant clemency to Hunter before January 21, 2025, this question will likely be renewed for his 2nd term, depending on forecaster interest." }, { "id": 25410, "title": "Will the Republicans Party of France (Les Républicains) form a political alliance with the National Rally for the 2024 French legislative election?", "short_title": "Will French Republicans/National Rally Ally?", "url_title": "Will French Republicans/National Rally Ally?", "slug": "will-french-republicansnational-rally-ally", 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25410, "title": "Will the Republicans Party of France (Les Républicains) form a political alliance with the National Rally for the 2024 French legislative election?", "created_at": "2024-06-12T16:43:52.309671Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-15T06:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-15T06:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-02T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-29T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-29T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/world/europe/france-conservatives-far-right-alliance.html):\n\n>The head of France’s conservative party on Tuesday *(June 12, 2024)* called for an alliance with the far right in upcoming snap elections, breaking a longstanding taboo and throwing his party into deep turmoil as the shock waves from President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament coursed through the country.\n\nIn France, due to the incentives of the country's electoral system, coalitions are [generally necessary](https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03359160) prior to the election rather than afterwards as is the case in most parliamentary democracies. National Rally is #1 in the [polling averages](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/), which is creating unprecedented incentives for mainstream French conservatives, who may be faced with the choice of either allying with National Rally if they want to regain power or else in practical terms facing a higher probability of losing the election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 30, 2024, an electoral alliance or coalition agreement is officially announced between the Republicans Party (Les Républicains) and National Rally (Rassemblement National) for the upcoming [French legislative election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_French_legislative_election), according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If no such agreement is announced, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Historically, the Republicans and National Rally have undergone name changes. Any name changes will not affect resolution of this question.", "post_id": 25410, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655761.829543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655761.829543, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.02678981181048299 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.231802913160177, 6.022229734776469, 1.515356318456761, 0.35775041776788324, 0.08381412020160633, 0.4150373665733155, 0.4523544567497313, 0.3451474356554012, 0.19285133479472366, 0.0, 0.2162374323373627, 0.0, 0.05440657924985089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002292301674078456, 0.017101445461516773, 0.0037945794224233387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015529911626825993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025043422762740086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13816622619390675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014925286850224059, 0.002996681779674101, 0.019501452486500002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719655761.872004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719655761.872004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 61, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/11/world/europe/france-conservatives-far-right-alliance.html):\n\n>The head of France’s conservative party on Tuesday *(June 12, 2024)* called for an alliance with the far right in upcoming snap elections, breaking a longstanding taboo and throwing his party into deep turmoil as the shock waves from President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to dissolve the lower house of Parliament coursed through the country.\n\nIn France, due to the incentives of the country's electoral system, coalitions are [generally necessary](https://shs.hal.science/halshs-03359160) prior to the election rather than afterwards as is the case in most parliamentary democracies. National Rally is #1 in the [polling averages](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/), which is creating unprecedented incentives for mainstream French conservatives, who may be faced with the choice of either allying with National Rally if they want to regain power or else in practical terms facing a higher probability of losing the election." }, { "id": 25393, "title": "Sníží do konce roku 2025 aspoň jedna z agentur Moody's, Fitch nebo S&P rating ČR o alespoň 1 stupeň?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "snizi-do-konce-roku-2025-aspon-jedna-z-agentur-moodys-fitch-nebo-sp-rating-cr-o-alespon-1-stupen", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T17:34:35.057113Z", "published_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.889394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 25393, "title": "Sníží do konce roku 2025 aspoň jedna z agentur Moody's, Fitch nebo S&P rating ČR o alespoň 1 stupeň?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T17:34:35.057113Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Česká republika dlouhodobě získává vysoké hodnocení ze strany ratingových agentur (historie k nahlédnutí např. [zde](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/)). Ve výhledech je země hodnocená jako \"\"stabilní\"\". V listopadu minulého roku agentura Moody's výhled [změnila](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2023/moodys-zlepsila-vyhled-pro-rating-cr-na--8222stabi-53810#:~:text=Agentura%20Moody's%20Investors%20Service%20zm%C4%9Bnila,zem%C4%9B%20na%20investi%C4%8Dn%C3%ADm%20stupni%20Aa3.) z \"\"negativního\"\" právě na stabilní, který si drží dodnes. Obecně je možné říci, že rating České republiky neprochází žádnými závratnými změnami - od roku 2019 se nezměnil u žádné ze tří sledovaných agentur, i dříve však bylo změn poskrovnu. K datu zadání otázky je rating ČR u agentury Moody's Aa3, u agentur S&P a Fitch shodně AA-.\n\nJedním z důvodů je dlouhodobě nízká zadluženost České republiky, podle dat [Eurostatu](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22042024-bp#:~:text=The%20highest%20ratios%20of%20government,%25)%20and%20Denmark%20(29.3%25).) dosahuje pouze úrovně 44% HDP, zatímco průměr v rámci EU je 81,7%. Český rozpočet v minulém roce hospodařil se [schodkem](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2024/pokladni-plneni-sr-54299) 288,5 miliard korun. [Strukturální](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/rozpoctova-politika/makroekonomika/fiskalni-vyhled/2023/fiskalni-vyhled-cr-listopad-2023-53585#:~:text=Hodnota%20struktur%C3%A1ln%C3%ADho%20deficitu%20ve%20v%C3%BD%C5%A1i,maxim%C3%A1ln%C4%9B%201%2C75%20%25%20HDP.) deficit byl pak k závěru minulého roku ve výši 2,5% s plánem se do roku 2026 dostat na hodnotu 1,75%. Rozpočtová pravidla v ČR si můžete projít na [webu](https://www.rozpoctovarada.cz/o-verejnych-financich/vse-o-verejnych-financich/) Národní ekonomické rady vlády (NERV).", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle ratingů zveřejněných samotnými agenturami, případně z webových stránek [MFČR](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/rozpoctova-politika/rizeni-statniho-dluhu/zakladni-informace/rating) a nebo [ČNB](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/).", "fine_print": "Fine print: Stupněm se myslí stupně popsané např. na webu [ČNB](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/) (např. u agentury Fitch by byl posun o jeden stupeň z AAA na AA+). \n\nPokud by došlo ke změně ratingového názvosloví, která by byla nekompatibilní s aktuálně platným systémem, otázku anulujeme.", "post_id": 25393, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756879962.25, "end_time": 1773921947.317498, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756879962.25, "end_time": 1773921947.317498, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0803903720008527 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29184345056281896, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Česká republika dlouhodobě získává vysoké hodnocení ze strany ratingových agentur (historie k nahlédnutí např. [zde](https://www.cnb.cz/cs/o_cnb/mezinarodni-vztahy/srovnavaci-tabulka/)). Ve výhledech je země hodnocená jako \"\"stabilní\"\". V listopadu minulého roku agentura Moody's výhled [změnila](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2023/moodys-zlepsila-vyhled-pro-rating-cr-na--8222stabi-53810#:~:text=Agentura%20Moody's%20Investors%20Service%20zm%C4%9Bnila,zem%C4%9B%20na%20investi%C4%8Dn%C3%ADm%20stupni%20Aa3.) z \"\"negativního\"\" právě na stabilní, který si drží dodnes. Obecně je možné říci, že rating České republiky neprochází žádnými závratnými změnami - od roku 2019 se nezměnil u žádné ze tří sledovaných agentur, i dříve však bylo změn poskrovnu. K datu zadání otázky je rating ČR u agentury Moody's Aa3, u agentur S&P a Fitch shodně AA-.\n\nJedním z důvodů je dlouhodobě nízká zadluženost České republiky, podle dat [Eurostatu](https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22042024-bp#:~:text=The%20highest%20ratios%20of%20government,%25)%20and%20Denmark%20(29.3%25).) dosahuje pouze úrovně 44% HDP, zatímco průměr v rámci EU je 81,7%. Český rozpočet v minulém roce hospodařil se [schodkem](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/ministerstvo/media/tiskove-zpravy/2024/pokladni-plneni-sr-54299) 288,5 miliard korun. [Strukturální](https://www.mfcr.cz/cs/rozpoctova-politika/makroekonomika/fiskalni-vyhled/2023/fiskalni-vyhled-cr-listopad-2023-53585#:~:text=Hodnota%20struktur%C3%A1ln%C3%ADho%20deficitu%20ve%20v%C3%BD%C5%A1i,maxim%C3%A1ln%C4%9B%201%2C75%20%25%20HDP.) deficit byl pak k závěru minulého roku ve výši 2,5% s plánem se do roku 2026 dostat na hodnotu 1,75%. Rozpočtová pravidla v ČR si můžete projít na [webu](https://www.rozpoctovarada.cz/o-verejnych-financich/vse-o-verejnych-financich/) Národní ekonomické rady vlády (NERV)." }, { "id": 25386, "title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "short_title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moo", "url_title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moo", "slug": "will-spacex-launch-humans-around-the-moo", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.062832Z", "published_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.612106Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25386, "title": "Will SpaceX launch humans around the Moon between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.062832Z", "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2051-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the dearMoon project flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch in 2018 on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again. Besides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle in consideration for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus predicts that mission will occur in 2028.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a vehicle primarily owned, operated, or constructed by SpaceX simultaneously has at least one living human aboard and is within 58,000 km of the Moon's surface and the date is between 2024-12-31 and 2032-12-31. The vehicle need not have launched with humans aboard, nor need it enter orbit around nor land on the Moon. For comparison, Apollo 13 carried humans within 158 km of the Moon's surface without landing on or entering orbit around the Moon.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25386, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "24 humans, all professional astronauts in the US Apollo program, have entered Lunar space. SpaceX and Japanese Billionaire Yusaku Maezawa are currently planning the dearMoon project flight around the Moon for 2023. The current plan is for SpaceX to launch a Starship around the Moon carrying Maezawa himself, one or two crew members, and eight members of the public selected by Maezawa. The schedule and nature of the dearMoon project has changed in the past, with its original incarnation planned for launch in 2018 on SpaceX's Crew Dragon 2 capsule and Falcon Heavy launch vehicle. Given this, it seems plausible that the schedule and nature of the dearMoon project could change again. Besides the dearMoon project, as of March 2021 SpaceX also has a vehicle in consideration for the Human Landing System in NASA's Artemis program. The first Artemis program mission involving the Human Landing System is as of March 2021 scheduled for October 2024, though as of March 2021 Metaculus predicts that mission will occur in 2028." }, { "id": 25387, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2028-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "short_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "url_title": "Will the last communication from Voyager", "slug": "will-the-last-communication-from-voyager", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061909Z", "published_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.589864Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25387, "title": "Will the last communication from Voyager 1 be between 2028-12-31 and 2032-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061909Z", "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'", "resolution_criteria": "Question will resolve as YES if the last credible signal from Voyager 1 is received between 2028-12-31 and 2032-12-31, after no signal has been received for one year, and NO otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Launched in September, 1977, the Voyager 1 spacecraft is currently the most distant manmade object in space. Amazingly, it continues to 'phone home' even from its position beyond the heliosheath. How we keep in touch with this little spaceship that could--currently 141 AUs away from us and counting, as of April 30, 2018--is astonishing. As NASA explains: 'The sensitivity of our deep-space tracking antennas located around the world is truly amazing. The antennas must capture Voyager information from a signal so weak that the power striking the antenna is only 10 exponent -16 watts (1 part in 10 quadrillion). A modern-day electronic digital watch operates at a power level 20 billion times greater than this feeble level.' Alas, in spite of all this awesome science, Voyager 1's days are numbered. Its fuel is nearly spent. In just a few years, it will bleat out its last signal, and then we'll hear from it no more. As The Atlantic reports: 'The Voyagers [including Voyager 2] eventually will go quiet. The spacecrafts' electric power, supplied by radioisotope thermoelectric generators, weakens each day. Dodd said scientists and engineers will likely begin shutting off instruments in 2020, a debate that she says is already underway. 'These scientists have had their instruments on for 40 years,' she said. 'Nobody wants to be the first one turned off.' The spacecrafts' transmitters will be the last to go. They will die on their own, in the late 2020s or perhaps in the 2030s. 'One day we'll be looking for the signal and we won't hear it anymore,' Dodd said. What will happen to it then? The ship's odyssey into the great black unknown is just beginning. Lots of speculation on Quora, including this cool passage: 'About [the Voyagers'] eventual fate, will they be intercepted by intelligent lifeforms? We honestly don't know. What we know is that both crafts will be confined to the Milky Way galaxy. Our solar system is traveling around the galaxy at about 514,000 mph, 15 times as fast as the Voyagers' current speeds. This means that in a few hundred million years, our paths will again cross, or certainly get close. Earth might already be vacant of humans in that time, but not necessarily in space. Humanity might be scattered all over the galaxy and maybe, in a strange twist of fate, the [Golden Records], humanity's message in a bottle to other intelligent lifeforms out there, were actually meant for our own descendants.'" }, { "id": 25385, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "short_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "url_title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consu", "slug": "will-tesla-bots-be-available-to-us-consu", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061302Z", "published_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.529185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25385, "title": "Will Tesla Bots be available to US consumers between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T16:03:38.061302Z", "open_time": "2024-06-10T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-18T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as YES if the earliest date on which general US consumers can take delivery from Tesla, Inc. a device having characteristics broadly in line with those of the proposed Tesla Bot is between 2025-12-31 and 2030-12-31, and NO otherwise. In particular, the device must be a humanoid robot, and must be able to perform some physical tasks upon being given directions to do so - a remote-controlled device manually operated by a human will not count. Note that this question will resolve as the first date on which general consumers physically possess the device, having purchased it, leased it, licensed it, or otherwise contracted with Tesla for physical custody of it, not on the date on which a deposit can be placed, a device can be ordered, pre-ordered, or otherwise contracted for. The consumers must be legally entitled to operate the device; a right to possess but not operate the device will not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 19 2021, at Tesla's AI Day event, Tesla, Inc. CEO Elon Musk unveiled a design for the Tesla Bot, a humanoid robot. According to The Verge, Tesla CEO Elon Musk says his company is working on a humanoid robot and that it will build a prototype sometime next year. The humanoid robot will leverage Tesla's experience with automated machines in its factories, as well as some of the hardware and software that powers the company's Autopilot driver assistance software. Musk, who has spoken publicly about his fears of runaway artificial intelligence, said Tesla is intended to be friendly, but that Tesla is designing the robot at a mechanical level so that you can run away from it, and most likely overpower it. It will be five feet, eight inches tall, and have a screen for a face. The robots will be designed to handle tasks that are unsafe, repetitive or boring, the company's website reads. I think essentially in the future, physical work will be a choice, if you if you want to do it you can." }, { "id": 25379, "title": "Dojde do konce roku 2025 k demonstraci, které se podle odhadů relevantních orgánů zúčastní více než 100 000 lidí?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "dojde-do-konce-roku-2025-k-demonstraci-ktere-se-podle-odhadu-relevantnich-organu-zucastni-vice-nez-100-000-lidi", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:45:33.244015Z", "published_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.609288Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 25379, "title": "Dojde do konce roku 2025 k demonstraci, které se podle odhadů relevantních orgánů zúčastní více než 100 000 lidí?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:45:33.244015Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "V České republice poměrně často dochází k různým demonstracím, manifestacím či jiným hromadným občanským shromážděním. Největší z nich zpravidla souvisí s politickou situací v zemi. \n\nZároveň ale platí, že jen málo demonstrací v historii ČR prokazatelně překonalo hranici 100 000 účastníků (potvrzenou jak organizátory, tak relevantními organizacemi - např. Policie ČR, mobilní operátoři, ...). Níže je výčet většiny velkých demonstrací od vzniku samostatné České republiky.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. prosince 1999** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace proti Václavu Klausovi a Miloši Zemanovi během trvání Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. ledna 2001** (cca 100 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace na podporu vzpoury v České televizi a za zrušení Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 21. dubna 2012** (cca 80 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - Nesouhlas s fiskální politikou premiéra Petra Nečase a ministra financí Miroslava Kalouska.\n\n**Demonstrace 22. května 2019** (cca 50 000-70 000 demonstrantů) - 4. demonstrace v řadě proti jmenování Marie Benešové ministryní spravedlnosti a proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi.\n\n**Demonstrace 4. června 2019** (cca 70 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - 6. demonstrace v řadě proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a ministryni spravedlnosti Marii Benešové.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. listopadu 2019** (cca 250 000-257 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace „Letná 2“ proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a za zdravější demokracii. \n\n**Demonstrace 3. září 2022** (cca 70 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. září 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. října 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Třetí demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 11. března 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. dubna 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\nV otázce nás zajímají pouze demonstrace svolané s konkrétní agendou (politickou a nebo jinou). Poměrný dobrý výčet demonstrací je k nalezení např. [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstrace_(protest)).", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle odhadů poskytnutých organizátory demonstrace, Policií ČR a mobilními operátory.", "fine_print": "Pro vyhodnocení budeme zvažovat pouze demonstrace, kde se v jedné lokalitě shromáždí potřebný počet osob. Série demonstrací po celé zemi tak nebude znamenat pozitivní vyhodnocení ani v případě, že počet účastníků za všechny souběžně běžící demonstrace překročí počet 100 000 osob. \n\nZároveň pro pozitivní vyhodnocení nebudeme zvažovat velkou společenskou nebo kulturní akci, která by se v průběhu přetavila v demonstraci.", "post_id": 25379, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730134990.455855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730134990.455855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.13344926228231604 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 1.0870998462289188, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 1.9879055898002704, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.1403260614666047, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.2726126670553227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "V České republice poměrně často dochází k různým demonstracím, manifestacím či jiným hromadným občanským shromážděním. Největší z nich zpravidla souvisí s politickou situací v zemi. \n\nZároveň ale platí, že jen málo demonstrací v historii ČR prokazatelně překonalo hranici 100 000 účastníků (potvrzenou jak organizátory, tak relevantními organizacemi - např. Policie ČR, mobilní operátoři, ...). Níže je výčet většiny velkých demonstrací od vzniku samostatné České republiky.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. prosince 1999** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace proti Václavu Klausovi a Miloši Zemanovi během trvání Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 3. ledna 2001** (cca 100 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace na podporu vzpoury v České televizi a za zrušení Opoziční smlouvy.\n\n**Demonstrace 21. dubna 2012** (cca 80 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - Nesouhlas s fiskální politikou premiéra Petra Nečase a ministra financí Miroslava Kalouska.\n\n**Demonstrace 22. května 2019** (cca 50 000-70 000 demonstrantů) - 4. demonstrace v řadě proti jmenování Marie Benešové ministryní spravedlnosti a proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi.\n\n**Demonstrace 4. června 2019** (cca 70 000-120 000 demonstrantů) - 6. demonstrace v řadě proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a ministryni spravedlnosti Marii Benešové.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. listopadu 2019** (cca 250 000-257 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace „Letná 2“ proti premiérovi Andreji Babišovi a za zdravější demokracii. \n\n**Demonstrace 3. září 2022** (cca 70 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. září 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 28. října 2022** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Třetí demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí.\n\n**Demonstrace 11. března 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\n**Demonstrace 16. dubna 2023** (cca 50 000 demonstrantů) - Druhá demonstrace nesouhlasu s politikou vlády Petra Fialy na Václavském náměstí organizovaná stranou PRO 2022.\n\nV otázce nás zajímají pouze demonstrace svolané s konkrétní agendou (politickou a nebo jinou). Poměrný dobrý výčet demonstrací je k nalezení např. [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstrace_(protest))." }, { "id": 25378, "title": "Dojde v ČR do konce roku 2025 k úmyslnému násilnému činu jednotlivce, ve kterém zahyne více než 5 osob?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "dojde-v-cr-do-konce-roku-2025-k-umyslnemu-nasilnemu-cinu-jednotlivce-ve-kterem-zahyne-vice-nez-5-osob", "author_id": 131917, "author_username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:40:47.572528Z", "published_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.700753Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "default_project": { "id": 32765, "name": "Odborný predikční tým", "type": "community", "slug": "odborny-predikcni-tym", "description": "FORPOL or Forecasting for policy, provides public institutions with predictions of future developments in important societal issues through forecasting tournaments.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1.png", "header_logo": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/datovy-zdroj-371-1_iTMg2uy.png", "followers_count": 14, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": { "id": 131917, "username": "Pavel_ČP_Admin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } }, "question": { "id": 25378, "title": "Dojde v ČR do konce roku 2025 k úmyslnému násilnému činu jednotlivce, ve kterém zahyne více než 5 osob?", "created_at": "2024-06-10T14:40:47.572528Z", "open_time": "2024-06-13T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-16T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-03-12T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Česká republika je dlouhodobě považována za jednu z nejbezpečnějších zemí na světě. V žebříčku Global Peace Index (GPI) se v [posledním měření](https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/#/) (2023) umístila na 12. místě. Česká republika je také jednou ze zemí, kde nikdy nedošlo k teroristickému útoku, kde by se k činům jednotlivce nebo skupiny přihlásilo konkrétní hnutí s cílem prosadit svou konkrétní ideologickou agendu. Masové násilné činy, resp. útoky tzv. \"osamělých vlků\" se však zemi nevyhýbají, posledním takovým případem byl tragický útok na Filozofické fakultě Karlovy univerzity, nejhorší takový útok v historii země. \n\nPrávě před útoky \"osamělých vlků\" varuje také BIS, například ve své [výroční zprávě](https://www.bis.cz/vyrocni-zpravy/vyrocni-zprava-bezpecnostni-informacni-sluzby-za-rok-2022-2cd547c8.html) za rok 2022, kde tento typ nebezpečí popisuje jako větší hrozbu pro ČR, než například islamistický terorismus. Výčet většiny masových vrahů je k dispozici například [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seznam_%C4%8Desk%C3%BDch_masov%C3%BDch_vrah%C5%AF).", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle oficiálních tiskových zpráv nebo prohlášení bezpečnostních složek, případně z ověřených informací zveřejněných důvěryhodnými českými médii.", "fine_print": "Za úmyslný čin považujeme takový, který byl takto buď zhodnocen justičním systémem (např. soudní znalci) a nebo za takový byl prohlášen vyšetřovacími složkami (Policie ČR). Podobně za úmyslný čin budeme považovat takové činy, které ze své podstaty vyžadují přípravu (např. sestavování výbušného zařízení, ...).\n\nV rámci otázky směřujeme na incident, při kterém dojde k úmrtím obětí útočníka bez výrazného časového odstupu.", "post_id": 25378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735487960.921367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735487960.921367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.27397064019504475 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 2.1411158958626295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3775654150354807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Česká republika je dlouhodobě považována za jednu z nejbezpečnějších zemí na světě. V žebříčku Global Peace Index (GPI) se v [posledním měření](https://www.visionofhumanity.org/maps/#/) (2023) umístila na 12. místě. Česká republika je také jednou ze zemí, kde nikdy nedošlo k teroristickému útoku, kde by se k činům jednotlivce nebo skupiny přihlásilo konkrétní hnutí s cílem prosadit svou konkrétní ideologickou agendu. Masové násilné činy, resp. útoky tzv. \"osamělých vlků\" se však zemi nevyhýbají, posledním takovým případem byl tragický útok na Filozofické fakultě Karlovy univerzity, nejhorší takový útok v historii země. \n\nPrávě před útoky \"osamělých vlků\" varuje také BIS, například ve své [výroční zprávě](https://www.bis.cz/vyrocni-zpravy/vyrocni-zprava-bezpecnostni-informacni-sluzby-za-rok-2022-2cd547c8.html) za rok 2022, kde tento typ nebezpečí popisuje jako větší hrozbu pro ČR, než například islamistický terorismus. Výčet většiny masových vrahů je k dispozici například [zde](https://cs.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seznam_%C4%8Desk%C3%BDch_masov%C3%BDch_vrah%C5%AF)." }, { "id": 25351, "title": "Will Sam Altman run for President of the United States before 2040?", "short_title": "Sam Altman run for POTUS by 2040", "url_title": "Sam Altman run for POTUS by 2040", "slug": "sam-altman-run-for-potus-by-2040", "author_id": 123192, "author_username": "atgctg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-09T14:35:39.882055Z", "published_at": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.715796Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25351, "title": "Will Sam Altman run for President of the United States before 2040?", "created_at": "2024-06-09T14:35:39.882055Z", "open_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-17T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-17T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2039-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sam Altman, currently the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the tech industry. His involvement in various technological advancements and his [public statements on policy](https://moores.samaltman.com/) and future societal challenges have led to [speculation about his potential political ambitions](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny#:~:text=he%20should%20run%20for%20President%20in%202020). This question seeks to forecast whether Sam Altman will announce his candidacy for the U.S. presidency by the year 2040.\n\nIn late 2023, there were [rumors](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/11/18/tech-glitch-makes-people-think-sam-altman-is-running-for-president/) that Altman would run for president in the 2024 election, although this seems to have been a tech glitch with the X (formerly Twitter) platform.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves to “Yes” if on or before December 31, 2039, Sam Altman has filed FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy in relation to a United States presidential election.", "fine_print": "Altman must be a candidate for the office of president of the United States; candidacy for any other office (including vice president) will not suffice for positive resolution\n\nIf the law changes such that *FEC Form 2: Statement of Candidacy* is no longer the name of the form, this question resolves based on any equivalent official form required by law for officially declaring candidacy for a United States presidential election.", "post_id": 25351, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751768187.660091, "end_time": 1767424834.788686, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751768187.660091, "end_time": 1767424834.788686, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.19064300400165202 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.3239481128329578, 1.770942066262302, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.577589386358531, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49184465768954627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289354.709624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289354.709624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9979636311807624, 0.0020363688192376835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 34, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sam Altman, currently the CEO of OpenAI, is a prominent figure in the tech industry. His involvement in various technological advancements and his [public statements on policy](https://moores.samaltman.com/) and future societal challenges have led to [speculation about his potential political ambitions](https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/10/10/sam-altmans-manifest-destiny#:~:text=he%20should%20run%20for%20President%20in%202020). This question seeks to forecast whether Sam Altman will announce his candidacy for the U.S. presidency by the year 2040.\n\nIn late 2023, there were [rumors](https://www.forbes.com/sites/mattnovak/2023/11/18/tech-glitch-makes-people-think-sam-altman-is-running-for-president/) that Altman would run for president in the 2024 election, although this seems to have been a tech glitch with the X (formerly Twitter) platform." }, { "id": 25349, "title": "Will the Arizona Coyotes rejoin the NHL by 2029?", "short_title": "Arizona Coyotes Return 2029", "url_title": "Arizona Coyotes Return 2029", "slug": "arizona-coyotes-return-2029", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-08T23:46:54.217832Z", "published_at": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.736156Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25349, "title": "Will the Arizona Coyotes rejoin the NHL by 2029?", "created_at": "2024-06-08T23:46:54.217832Z", "open_time": "2024-06-12T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-15T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[In May 2023,](https://theathletic.com/5424825/2024/04/18/coyotes-move-to-utah-salt-lake-city/) after the residents of Tempe, Arizona rejected a proposal to build a new hockey arena, the Arizona Coyotes suspended operations. This followed [years of low attendance for the Coyotes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Hockey_League_attendance_figures#2021%E2%80%9322_attendance_statistics) Unless the Coyotes secure a new arena by 2029, [the NHL will have the right to fold the franchise.](https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17935)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the National Hockey League (NHL) officially announces that the Coyotes hockey team has secured a new arena in the state of Arizona and will begin hockey operations again before January 1st, 2029.\n\nIf both these events have not occurred before that date, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Name changes will not affect resolution of this question.\n\nIf the team relocates outside of Arizona, this question resolves as No.", "post_id": 25349, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740392593.183174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740392593.183174, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.22905725630939308 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 1.0, 0.0, 1.0437146786346598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288679.286048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288679.286048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9068861322971422, 0.09311386770285782 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 11, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[In May 2023,](https://theathletic.com/5424825/2024/04/18/coyotes-move-to-utah-salt-lake-city/) after the residents of Tempe, Arizona rejected a proposal to build a new hockey arena, the Arizona Coyotes suspended operations. This followed [years of low attendance for the Coyotes.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_Hockey_League_attendance_figures#2021%E2%80%9322_attendance_statistics) Unless the Coyotes secure a new arena by 2029, [the NHL will have the right to fold the franchise.](https://media.nhl.com/public/news/17935)" }, { "id": 25140, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "url_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "slug": "on-june-28th-2024-will-nvidias-market", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.791078Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.756814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:01.046608Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25140, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.791078Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-28T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:20.602374Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 7, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25141, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "short_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "url_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "slug": "short-fuse-will-the-proxy-advisor-inst", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.784040Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.298617Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.815672Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25141, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.784040Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:12.929261Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25141, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)" }, { "id": 25139, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "short_title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospital", "url_title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospital", "slug": "will-the-maximum-weekly-rate-of-hospital", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.778117Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.294667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.925668Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-29T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25139, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.778117Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-29T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:41.953731Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022." }, { "id": 25138, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "short_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "url_title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Inst", "slug": "short-fuse-will-the-proxy-advisor-inst", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.768232Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.579031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.826538Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25138, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.768232Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:44:31.758797Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n*Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?*\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of the Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n*Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?*\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)" }, { "id": 25137, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurali", "url_title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurali", "slug": "will-fidesz-kdnp-maintain-its-eu-plurali", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.764872Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.956186Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.729296Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25137, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.764872Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:08.160899Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary." }, { "id": 25136, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Will a journalist or an opposition polit", "url_title": "Will a journalist or an opposition polit", "slug": "will-a-journalist-or-an-opposition-polit", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.753158Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.938007Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:01.007476Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25136, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.753158Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:48.119257Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlová. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Ľuboš Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kaliňák, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovenskí Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **YES** if [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Slovak media outlets or international news organizations report that a Slovak journalist or opposition politician has been criminally charged in connection with the assassination attempt.\n\nAlternatively, the resolution will also be **YES** if relevant Slovak institutions (e.g., the public prosecutor's office, courts, police, and similar authorities) issue a statement to that effect.\n\nOtherwise, the question will be resolved as **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlová. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, Ľuboš Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kaliňák, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana Čaputová and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovenskí Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia." }, { "id": 25135, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "url_title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market", "slug": "on-june-28th-2024-will-nvidias-market", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.751615Z", "published_at": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.918235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-06T12:49:00.937021Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25135, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T12:48:59.751615Z", "open_time": "2024-06-06T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:45:27.144345Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-11T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25135, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 25125, "title": "Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?", "short_title": "Guardian Council Approve Ahmadinejad 2024", "url_title": "Guardian Council Approve Ahmadinejad 2024", "slug": "guardian-council-approve-ahmadinejad-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T02:34:00.930791Z", "published_at": 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election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is included in Iran's Guardian Council's list of qualified presidential candidates for the upcoming presidential election.", "fine_print": "* If the Guardian Council does not publish its list of approved candidates before June 27, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717950421.11679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717950421.11679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018431213382361245 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.254955311348311, 2.8153736852430775, 0.718332128659227, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.0, 0.3643458643011109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.12499472235242584, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.507803423954753, "coverage": 0.5358683851506665, "baseline_score": 41.868627302327425, "spot_peer_score": 18.032173489051896, "peer_archived_score": 8.507803423954753, "baseline_archived_score": 41.868627302327425, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.032173489051896 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717940050.93066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717940050.93066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9927681241053489, 0.0072318758946511045 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11." } ] }
