Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2620
{ "count": 6351, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2600", "results": [ { "id": 27415, "title": "Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese Control of Half of Taiwan by 2030?", "slug": "chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-19T21:17:53.512745Z", "published_at": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-16T19:24:09.424622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27415, "title": "Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-08-19T21:17:53.512745Z", "open_time": "2024-08-22T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-25T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, for many decades. This acquisition process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, however, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\"—i.e., is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\n\nFor further reading on this topic, see:\n\n- Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press: [The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/)\n- Council on Foreign Relations: [Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan](https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan)\n- Defense News: [How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/05/07/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n___\n_This question is based on @michaelchen's question '[Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/)'_", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, any of events 1-3 occurs, and 4 also occurs. \n\n1. There are at least five reliable articles listing areas controlled by the People's Republic of China, including areas of the current territory (\"free area\" as of October 2020) of the Republic of China (including the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu) which amount to at least half the population of the current territory of the ROC, according to the latest reliable population demographic data of the ROC.<br/>\n2. There are at least five non-opinion articles from different reliable sources asserting that the PRC controls at least half or most of Taiwan.<br/>\n3. There are at least five articles (including opinion articles) from different reliable sources asserting that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC and citing evidence that the government of the majority of the ROC is de facto controlled by China, and the ROC (rather than a third state) controls at least half of the current territory of the ROC. Articles which, in the judgment of Metaculus, are hyperbole or otherwise do not make a strong case that the ROC is a puppet state of the PRC will not count.\n4. There are no export controls or immigration restrictions in either direction, from the PRC to the ROC or vice versa. (This condition being true is indicative of reasonably strong politico-economic integration.)", "fine_print": "A peaceful reunification of China and Taiwan would result in this question resolving Yes.\n\nArticles must be written and published by different sources and must reach their conclusions largely independently, publishing the same article at a separate news outlet or several news outlets reporting statements made by the same individual or group of individuals will not count as separate articles.", "post_id": 27415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762168330.314366, "end_time": 1765785212.308, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762168330.314366, "end_time": 1765785212.308, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.24024418985189472 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290004.279359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290004.279359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9275082097432501, 0.07249179025674996 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The People's Republic of China (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, has wanted to acquire control of the territory of the Republic of China (ROC), governing the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu, for many decades. This acquisition process might happen if the ROC makes a clear statement of independence from the PRC, and the PRC invades in response and succeeds. In May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.” Foreign Policy thinks “[Beijing is unlikely to invade Taiwan during the pandemic](https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/11/china-taiwan-reunification-invasion-coronavirus-pandemic/)”, which raises the question of longer timespans. There are questions as to if/when China would be able to win a military conflict, or whether the US would defend Taiwan.\n\nAlternatively, the ROC may voluntarily choose to unify with the PRC. Currently, however, the majority of the Taiwanese public is in favor of maintaining the \"status quo\"—i.e., is against unification with China. Over 70% believes that the Republic of China is an independent country. 6.7% believes that Taiwan and China should be unified as soon as possible ([The Diplomat](https://thediplomat.com/2020/05/what-do-taiwans-people-think-about-their-relationship-to-china/)).\n\nFor further reading on this topic, see:\n\n- Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, Air University Press: [The Ambitious Dragon: Beijing’s Calculus for Invading Taiwan by 2030](https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3371474/the-ambitious-dragon-beijings-calculus-for-invading-taiwan-by-2030/)\n- Council on Foreign Relations: [Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwan](https://www.cfr.org/article/why-china-would-struggle-invade-taiwan)\n- Defense News: [How DC became obsessed with a potential 2027 Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/05/07/how-dc-became-obsessed-with-a-potential-2027-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n___\n_This question is based on @michaelchen's question '[Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5320/chinese-control-of-half-of-taiwan-by-2050/)'_" }, { "id": 27353, "title": "If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?", "short_title": "Trump Ukraine War Resolution", "url_title": "Trump Ukraine War Resolution", "slug": "trump-ukraine-war-resolution", "author_id": 198325, "author_username": "anna.k.hennig", "coauthors": [ { "id": 197092, "username": "pashka24" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-18T15:34:03.116399Z", "published_at": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:25:14.979537Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 115, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:42:04.780980Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1724, "type": "question_series", "name": "Verity", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/verity.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-12-31T23:00:00Z", "close_date": "2119-12-30T23:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2032-12-21T05:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T09:42:04.780980Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27353, "title": "If Trump is re-elected, will he achieve a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine war during his term?", "created_at": "2024-08-18T15:34:03.116399Z", "open_time": "2024-08-29T21:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-05T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [If Re-elected, Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/If-Reelected-Will-Trump-End-the-War-in-Ukraine) \n\nOn February 24, 2022, Russia [invaded](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine) Ukraine, marking a significant escalation of ongoing tensions between the nations rooted in Ukraine's 2014 [Euromaidan revolution](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-Maidan-protest-movement) and Russia's subsequent [annexation of Crimea](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-crisis-in-Crimea-and-eastern-Ukraine). The invasion prompted [widespread international condemnation](https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12407.doc.htm) and led to [unprecedented sanctions against Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659).\n \nDiplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have included [early negotiations in Belarus and Turkey](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html), and more recently, mediation attempts by countries like [China](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/business/ukraine-kuleba-china-russia-war.html). Proposed resolutions have often focused on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality for Ukraine. However, both Russia and Ukraine remain firm in their conditions for peace, with Russia [demanding](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/14/putin-says-ukraine-must-withdraw-troops-and-end-nato-bid-for-peace-talks-to-begin_6674805_4.html) recognition of its annexation of four Ukrainian territories and an end to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, and Ukraine [insisting on the restoration of its pre-2014 borders](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20469), making a lasting peace agreement challenging.\n\nAmid these ongoing efforts, former US President Donald Trump [has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected in 2024](https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-trump-says-as-president-hed-settle-ukraine-war-within-24-hours/0BCA9F18-D3BF-43DA-9220-C13587EAEDF2). He asserts that his negotiating skills and relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would enable him to broker a swift peace deal. However, [critics question the feasibility of such a claim](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/), given the complexity of the conflict and Trump's foreign policy record. They also raise questions about the nature of the peace he might pursue and whether it would align with the interests of Ukraine and its Western allies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected president of the United States in the 2024 election and, before January 20, 2029, Russia and Ukraine have signed a formal bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement, which Trump can fairly be credited with facilitating. \n\nTrump will be credited with facilitating the end of the war if any of the following criteria are met:\n\n- The US, under the Trump administration, hosts and/or leads the negotiations that result in a peace agreement/ceasefire;\n- Trump meets (either in person or virtually) with the heads of state of Ukraine and Russia in a trilateral summit that results in a peace/ceasefire agreement;\n- The heads of state of Russia and/or Ukraine, their representatives, or government officials authorized to speak on behalf of their governments publicly acknowledge that private talks with Trump influenced negotiations;\n- Trump is awarded at least one of these prestigious international peace prizes for his contributions to ending the war in Ukraine: the Nobel Peace Prize, the Right Livelihood Award, the Félix Houphouët-Boigny Peace Prize, Luxembourg Peace Prize, and the Sunhak Peace Prize.\n\nIf no bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement is signed — or none of the above criteria to confirm Trump’s role in this are met — before January 20, 2029, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If Trump loses the 2024 US presidential election, this question resolves as **Annulled**.\n\nA bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement must begin at any point during Trump's presidency and stand for at least 30 days. (The latest possible ceasefire/peace agreement, by this criterion, begins before the new US President is inaugurated on January 20, 2029 and stands through February 19, 2029.) A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A ceasefire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the ceasefire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no ceasefire or peace agreement has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by February 19, 2029. The agreement must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question.", "post_id": 27353, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763198704.724621, "end_time": 1763485908.767, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763198704.724621, "end_time": 1763485908.767, "forecaster_count": 67, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.39 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.46161720447299615 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.021786738318048823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03035066010230634, 0.0, 0.6872184256913908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7242106460251708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03738920373933642, 0.0, 0.4808625870462475, 0.0, 0.4405878969585014, 0.0, 0.14365297647072853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.940527522258481, 0.0, 0.09652568839636715, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017210301564934184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3520703225627485, 0.0, 0.433058029116845, 1.189817980528415, 0.12213964696863193, 1.1325309906901133, 0.011752428427110738, 0.0, 0.38383618459985386, 0.4634048111397331, 0.0, 1.5801538491536964, 0.0, 0.8974726791626271, 0.0, 0.2844637239593917, 0.6919129555330178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.054097076090506, 0.18184291418632875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5952804539308401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03961574699460826, 0.2645571001306608, 0.03607746772493134, 0.07297864542578526, 0.019395540998817004, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05032766519653908, 0.0, 0.06079863355189714, 0.07508847013500569, 0.0, 0.9159516786563393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003228095225742652, 0.0026077048968387137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005597961463592589, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08709201066508168, 0.0020593749349257107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24661028058910509 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288820.088134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288820.088134, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7619942065429208, 0.23800579345707923 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 396, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [If Re-elected, Will Trump End the War in Ukraine?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/If-Reelected-Will-Trump-End-the-War-in-Ukraine) \n\nOn February 24, 2022, Russia [invaded](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-ukraine) Ukraine, marking a significant escalation of ongoing tensions between the nations rooted in Ukraine's 2014 [Euromaidan revolution](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-Maidan-protest-movement) and Russia's subsequent [annexation of Crimea](https://www.britannica.com/place/Ukraine/The-crisis-in-Crimea-and-eastern-Ukraine). The invasion prompted [widespread international condemnation](https://press.un.org/en/2022/ga12407.doc.htm) and led to [unprecedented sanctions against Russia](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60125659).\n \nDiplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have included [early negotiations in Belarus and Turkey](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/06/15/world/europe/ukraine-russia-ceasefire-deal.html), and more recently, mediation attempts by countries like [China](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/24/business/ukraine-kuleba-china-russia-war.html). Proposed resolutions have often focused on territorial concessions, security guarantees, and neutrality for Ukraine. However, both Russia and Ukraine remain firm in their conditions for peace, with Russia [demanding](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2024/06/14/putin-says-ukraine-must-withdraw-troops-and-end-nato-bid-for-peace-talks-to-begin_6674805_4.html) recognition of its annexation of four Ukrainian territories and an end to Ukraine’s NATO aspirations, and Ukraine [insisting on the restoration of its pre-2014 borders](https://www.kyivpost.com/post/20469), making a lasting peace agreement challenging.\n\nAmid these ongoing efforts, former US President Donald Trump [has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours if reelected in 2024](https://www.wsj.com/video/watch-trump-says-as-president-hed-settle-ukraine-war-within-24-hours/0BCA9F18-D3BF-43DA-9220-C13587EAEDF2). He asserts that his negotiating skills and relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin would enable him to broker a swift peace deal. However, [critics question the feasibility of such a claim](https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/04/05/trump-ukraine-secret-plan/), given the complexity of the conflict and Trump's foreign policy record. They also raise questions about the nature of the peace he might pursue and whether it would align with the interests of Ukraine and its Western allies." }, { "id": 27350, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?", "short_title": "Nuclear detonation in Ukraine Before 2026?", "url_title": "Nuclear detonation in Ukraine Before 2026?", "slug": "nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-before-2026", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-18T01:00:26.262525Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T04:17:00.203760Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27350, "title": "Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-08-18T01:00:26.262525Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T13:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T13:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T13:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Russia detonates a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before January 1, 2026. A [deliberate, inadvertent, or accidental/unauthorized](https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf) detonation would result in the question resolving as **Yes**. For the purposes of this question, Ukraine will be defined as the [internationally-recognized boundaries prior to 2014](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian-occupied_territories_of_Ukraine) (that is, including Crimea, the Donetsk Republic, and the Luhansk Republic), including Ukraine's 12 nautical mile [territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters#Territorial_sea). Ukrainian-held territory will include any territory (including in Russia) occupied by Ukrainian troops according to the Institute for the Study of War at [this link](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). To qualify, the nuclear weapon must be detonated less than 100 kilometers above Earth's mean sea level.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, a \"nuclear weapon\" is a bomb which uses a nuclear fission or fusion reaction as its primary energy source, excluding conventional bombs which spread radioactive fallout (so called \"[dirty bombs](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dirty_bomb)\").\n\nExternal territory occupied by Ukrainian troops includes any category marked by ISW as occupied by Ukrainian forces, including but not limited to: claimed, assessed, and reported.", "post_id": 27350, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763180209.905407, "end_time": 1763264362.688, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763180209.905407, "end_time": 1763264362.688, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.030301271703479245 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.794070486665602, 0.8612993301857045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03877020169610887, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1902336590916781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08235174299721564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2519740871949554 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289562.629836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289562.629836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9896269265651123, 0.010373073434887706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 357, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 8, 2024, a guest on Russian state TV [floated the idea](https://www.newsweek.com/russian-tv-nuclear-strike-kursk-raid-1936268) of Russia using tactical nuclear weapons on Ukrainian forces in the Kursk region of Russia. In June 2024, Russian president Vladimir Putin [said](https://www.voanews.com/a/putin-says-russia-could-use-nuclear-weapons-if-it-is-threatened/7644941.html):\n\n>If somebody’s actions threaten our sovereignty and territorial integrity, we consider it possible to use all means at our disposal [...] For some reason, they believe in the West that Russia will never use it.\n\nIn June 2023, two months before his death, Wagner PMC Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin [said](https://www.newsweek.com/russia-could-nuke-border-region-yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-group-1804797):\n\n>\"I am afraid that they might harbor some foul thoughts about dropping a little nuke on their own territory. Could it be the reason why we are ceding territory in Belgorod region—because we are too scared to hit their [territory], but not our own \n\n>\"Lobbing [the bomb] at foreign [territory] is scary, but we can hit our own, to show how sick and psychotic we are. The Ukrainian forces might be occupying some small [Russian] village, and that's where [Russia] will aim the tactical nuclear strike.\"\n\n(From a forecasting standpoint please note that, in contrast to the [previous version](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/13171/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2024/) of this question, this one also includes non-Ukrainian territory that is occupied by Ukraine.)\n\nIn May 2024, in response to what Russia's defense ministry said were “provocative statements and threats” by NATO, Putin [ordered](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) the Russian military to carry out tactical nuclear weapon drills, which was the first time such an announcement was made publicly.\n\nTactical nuclear weapons, also known as nonstrategic nuclear weapons, are smaller in yield than strategic nuclear weapons and are intended for battlefield usage, when there is a specific target and friendly forces are in close proximity. Russia [is estimated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-06/news/russia-links-nonstrategic-nuclear-exercises-threats) to have 1,000 to 2,000 of the weapons in its stockpile.\n\nPutin [recently indicated](https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2024-07/news/russian-nuclear-posture-may-change-putin-says) that Russia's nuclear posture may change to a more aggressive doctrine, saying Russia would only use nuclear weapons in “exceptional cases…when there is a threat to the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the country,” but then refusing to “rule out the possibility of making changes to this doctrine.”\n\nNuclear weapons have not been used in warfare since 1945, when the United States dropped two atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.\n\nSee Also\n\n- Center for Strategic & International Studies: [Why Russia Keeps Rattling the Nuclear Saber](https://www.csis.org/analysis/why-russia-keeps-rattling-nuclear-saber)\n\n- Carnegie Politika: [Putin’s Russia Will Continue to Pursue Nuclear Escalation](https://carnegieendowment.org/russia-eurasia/politika/2024/06/russia-nuclear-war-threats?lang=en)" }, { "id": 27346, "title": "Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024?", "short_title": "SAF Participation in Geneva Peace Talks", "url_title": "SAF Participation in Geneva Peace Talks", "slug": "saf-participation-in-geneva-peace-talks", "author_id": 119381, "author_username": "MoEL", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-16T16:29:02.532968Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.098841Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "community": [ { "id": 3428, "name": "Sudan Community", "type": "community", "slug": "Sudan", "description": "This space is dedicated to forecasting key aspects of the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Sudan, which began in April 2023 with the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Questions focus on critical indicators of human welfare, conflict dynamics, and international response efforts, covering topics like displacement, food security, health, and potential peace processes.\r\n\r\nI'm <a href=\"https://x.com/MhmdMstfaHmmd\">M.M. Elrashid</a>, curator of this space and former leader of the Student Forecasting Society at KU Leuven.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_1.38.09PM.png", "followers_count": 7, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 119381, "username": "MoEL", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27346, "title": "Will the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) send a delegation to the current round of Geneva peace talks by August 24, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-16T16:29:02.532968Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T12:41:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T12:41:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-25T11:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 14, 2024, a new round of peace talks aimed at addressing Sudan's ongoing conflict began in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks are led by the United States with support from Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, and are scheduled to last up to ten days, potentially concluding on August 24, 2024.\nThe talks aim to achieve a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. This follows previous rounds of negotiations held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which did not result in a lasting agreement.\n\nAs of the start of the talks on August 14, the SAF had not sent a delegation to Geneva. The SAF previously announced it would not attend, citing the RSF's failure to implement agreements made in Saudi Arabia. The RSF has sent a delegation to Geneva but has not actively participated in the negotiations as of the talks' commencement.\n\nThe participation of both the SAF and RSF is considered necessary for substantive progress towards a ceasefire and improved humanitarian access in Sudan. This question focuses specifically on whether the SAF will change its stance and send a delegation to participate in the current round of talks.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, by 23:59:59 UTC on August 24, 2024:\n\n1. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) sends an official delegation to the Geneva peace talks, AND\n\n2. This delegation's participation is publicly acknowledged by Tom Perriello, the U.S. Special Envoy for Sudan, via an announcement on the official Twitter/X account @USSESudan.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the above conditions are not met by the specified deadline.", "fine_print": "1. If the talks conclude earlier than August 24, 2024, the resolution date will be adjusted to the final day of the talks.\n\n2. If the talks are extended beyond August 24, 2024, the resolution criteria will still apply to the original end date of August 24, 2024.\n\n3. Only official announcements from the @USSESudan account will be considered for resolution. Retweets or unofficial statements will not be sufficient.\n\n4. If the @USSESudan account becomes unavailable or is renamed, an equivalent official U.S. government source acknowledging SAF participation will be accepted.\n\n5. The physical presence of SAF representatives in Geneva is required for a \"Yes\" resolution. Virtual participation will not be considered sufficient.\n\n6. In case of any ambiguity, I will make a final determination based on the best available information from reliable sources.\n\n7. The possibility of a second round of talks at a later date does not affect the resolution of this question, which pertains only to the current round ending August 24, 2024.\n\n8. The SAF's participation status will be evaluated independently of the RSF's current status (delegation present but not actively participating).", "post_id": 27346, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724528054.210559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724528054.210559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.046228769428616645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7277212189012763, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.861562640088563, "coverage": 0.9957279252404843, "baseline_score": 72.38393093360605, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": -1.861562640088563, "baseline_archived_score": 72.38393093360605, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724528054.248255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724528054.248255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 14, 2024, a new round of peace talks aimed at addressing Sudan's ongoing conflict began in Geneva, Switzerland. These talks are led by the United States with support from Switzerland and Saudi Arabia, and are scheduled to last up to ten days, potentially concluding on August 24, 2024.\nThe talks aim to achieve a ceasefire agreement between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. This follows previous rounds of negotiations held in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, which did not result in a lasting agreement.\n\nAs of the start of the talks on August 14, the SAF had not sent a delegation to Geneva. The SAF previously announced it would not attend, citing the RSF's failure to implement agreements made in Saudi Arabia. The RSF has sent a delegation to Geneva but has not actively participated in the negotiations as of the talks' commencement.\n\nThe participation of both the SAF and RSF is considered necessary for substantive progress towards a ceasefire and improved humanitarian access in Sudan. This question focuses specifically on whether the SAF will change its stance and send a delegation to participate in the current round of talks." }, { "id": 27341, "title": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump's campaign managers leave before Oct 1?", "url_title": "Trump's campaign managers leave before Oct 1?", "slug": "trumps-campaign-managers-leave-before-oct-1", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-16T15:02:42.492473Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.697154Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 87, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 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"user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27341, "title": "Will either of Donald Trump's campaign managers get fired, resign, or otherwise leave their positions before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-16T15:02:42.492473Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, there is a [credible report](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that one or both of the following individuals is no longer campaign manager of Donald Trump's 2024 presidential campaign: \n\n- Chris LaCivita \n- Susie Wiles\n\nIf there is no such report before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The addition of a new co-campaign manager will not affect resolution.\n\nIn addition to resigning or otherwise being terminated as campaign manager, credible reports that LaCivita or Wiles have been demoted to other positions within the Trump Campaign, such as senior advisor, will also resolve this question as Yes, since this question is asking whether they remain as campaign manager.", "post_id": 27341, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754911.997063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754911.997063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013376068218542633 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.225862232252865, 5.980107263605596, 1.7170899013402883, 0.23673422339445704, 0.13819591384238927, 0.07385818716358705, 0.14291661183567161, 0.0, 0.051813547496738235, 0.011260426236417237, 0.004605746085745568, 0.008178451525312864, 0.0, 0.011393233754605896, 0.0, 0.05855452119268713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038503157754529835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10678389500756706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045849597469312386, 0.0, 0.0014745534528646544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012117839732328766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007730619348276378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014035409334259398 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.388598102612622, "coverage": 0.9999931859658174, "baseline_score": 74.67655995707753, "spot_peer_score": 12.306530669801345, "peer_archived_score": 15.388598102612622, "baseline_archived_score": 74.67655995707753, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.306530669801345 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754912.045302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754912.045302, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 443, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Daily Mail](https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-13741377/Inside-Trumps-meltdown-Ex-president-lighting-staff-hes-p-ssed-picking-JD-Vance-insiders-fear-hes-going-fire-two-extremely-talented-campaign-gurus.html) on August 14, 2024, \"Trump is reportedly talking to his confidantes about firing his campaign managers Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles.\" As Newsweek [pointed out](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-fire-campaign-managers-chris-lacivita-susie-wiles-1939578), however, Daily Mail had modified the story to be more guarded in its claims of Trump considering that option, and a Trump campaign spokesman said, \"As President Trump said, he thinks Ms. Wiles and Mr. LaCivita are doing a phenomenal job and any rumors to the contrary are false and not rooted in reality.\"\n\nIn his past campaigns Trump fired [Corey Lewandowski](https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/21/us/politics/corey-lewandowski-donald-trump.html) in June 2016 (who by the way has [recently joined](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/08/15/trump-campaign-brings-corey-lewandowski-back-on-board-00174155) Trump's 2024 campaign as an advisor). Lewandowski was replaced by [Paul Manafort](https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2016/04/how-paul-manafort-took-over-the-trump-campaign.html). Manafort [resigned](https://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/paul-manafort-resigns-from-trump-campaign-227197) in August 2016 and was replaced by Kellyanne Conway, who remained Trump's campaign manager for the duration of the election. \n\nIn the 2020 election, Trump's original campaign manager, Brad Parscale, [was demoted](https://www.tpr.org/news/2020-07-15/former-san-antonian-brad-parscale-takes-demotion-from-trumps-2020-presidential-campaign) to senior advisor in June and replaced by Bill Stepien, who served for the duration.\n\nSo far in the 2024 campaign, Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles have remained Trump's campaign co-managers. (See July 10, 2024 Atlantic interview [here](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/07/trump-campain-election-2024-susie-wiles-chris-lacivita/678806/).) On August 16, 2024, Trump was [reportedly](https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-campaign-team-corey-lewandowski-kamala-harris-1940141) shaking up his campaign, bringing in new senior staff, with campaign managers LaCivita and Wiles saying in a statement, \"As we head into the home stretch of this election, we are continuing to add to our impressive campaign team.\"" }, { "id": 27316, "title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve \"yes\" in ambiguous cases)", "short_title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035?", "url_title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035?", "slug": "will-china-have-the-largest-ai-model-in-2035", "author_id": 196604, "author_username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-15T13:43:41.398800Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T07:14:06.454529Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "default_project": { "id": 3422, "name": "David Mathers' Community", "type": "community", "slug": "arb", "description": "I am interested in questions around the future of AI, global catastrophic risks, and effective altruism. I'm a researcher for the consultancy <a href=\"https://arbresearch.com/\">Arb</a>, who works mostly within the AI safety and forecasting spaces, as well as a professional forecaster. I'll probably focus mostly on AI questions here.", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM_2_niu19eM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-16_at_4.09.50PM.png", "followers_count": 11, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 196604, "username": "DavidA.B.Mathers", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } }, "question": { "id": 27316, "title": "Will China have the largest AI model in 2035? (Resolve \"yes\" in ambiguous cases)", "created_at": "2024-08-15T13:43:41.398800Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T13:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-19T13:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-19T13:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2037-01-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-12-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-12-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At the moment, the leading US AI companies perform larger AI training runs than top US tech companies. If that changes and AI turns out to be highly important militarily and economically, the balance of power between the US and China could significantly shift in China's favor. Further, many AI safety and AI governance researchers have suggested a close AI race between the US and China will lead to corners being cut with safety by both countries, increasing the chance that a catastrophically dangerous model is trained and released. If China were to overtake the US by 2035, from its currently trailing position, that would almost certainly mean we are heading for at least some period where the two countries are very close together in terms of the size and quality of their leading edge models, which could lead to a race dynamic between them.", "resolution_criteria": "\"Largest model in 2035\"=Largest model trained as of end of day 31st of December 2035. \n\nI will measure model size in terms of the FLOP used to train them (see here: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation#:~:text=In%20the%20context%20of%20artificial,subtraction%2C%20multiplication%2C%20or%20division.) In looking for figures on model size I will first check what Our World in Data and Epoch have to say, and then look further if neither of them provide relevant figures. In cases where I judge it to be ambiguous whether the largest Chinese model as of end 2035 is bigger than the largest US model, I will resolve this \"yes\" (since I am mostly interested in whether China will at least catch up with the US).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27316, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760944435.655264, "end_time": 1767976969.239467, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760944435.655264, "end_time": 1767976969.239467, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.316458256277735 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288432.712958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288432.712958, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9104264495409652, 0.08957355045903481 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 30, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At the moment, the leading US AI companies perform larger AI training runs than top US tech companies. If that changes and AI turns out to be highly important militarily and economically, the balance of power between the US and China could significantly shift in China's favor. Further, many AI safety and AI governance researchers have suggested a close AI race between the US and China will lead to corners being cut with safety by both countries, increasing the chance that a catastrophically dangerous model is trained and released. If China were to overtake the US by 2035, from its currently trailing position, that would almost certainly mean we are heading for at least some period where the two countries are very close together in terms of the size and quality of their leading edge models, which could lead to a race dynamic between them." }, { "id": 27313, "title": "Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?", "short_title": "GOP vote share in Texas in POTUS 2024", "url_title": "GOP vote share in Texas in POTUS 2024", "slug": "gop-vote-share-in-texas-in-potus-2024", "author_id": 159168, "author_username": "julleht", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-15T08:59:21.984059Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.915734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27313, "title": "Will the nominated Republican presidential candidate receive over 50% of the valid votes in Texas in 2024 United States presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-08-15T08:59:21.984059Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:25:14.370890Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in [2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas), while in [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.\n\n[Linear trend](https://i.imgur.com/0OybLvV.png), taking into account all the presidential elections since 2000, suggests that the Republican candidate would be close to the 50% mark in 2024 elections.\n\nAdditional consideration is the strength of third party candidates this cycle. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [has polled](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/texas/) in mid to high single digits in Texas, potentially stripping the Republican candidate of a majority of votes in the state. Ross Perot managed the feat in both [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) elections, though his vote share especially in 1992 was markedly higher.\n\nReceiving under 50% of the vote in Texas – especially if it happens without a sizeable third party candidate – would mark another milestone in the journey of the Lone Star State towards being a battleground for future presidential cycles, even if the Republican candidate ends up winning the state in 2024, as is all but sure.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"yes\" if the nominated Republican presidential candidate receives over 50% of the vote as per [the official election results published by the Texas Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.tx.us/elections/historical/presidential.shtml) or [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on those results. If the number is under 50%, the question will resolve as \"no.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27313, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730616120.562852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730616120.562852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9453207714814423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28297426521193625, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 1.0518145414983018, 0.26629006976841835, 0.04091934181495329, 0.6722385341821173, 0.0, 0.6885357660753177, 0.48480115213825536, 0.6701049752490269, 1.510496550666753, 2.7250506332788347 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.05504352331837, "peer_score": 9.70662546949725, "coverage": 0.9989889147009233, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989889147009233, "spot_peer_score": 13.373968256713068, "baseline_archived_score": 86.05504352331837, "peer_archived_score": 9.70662546949725, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.373968256713068 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288914.732986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288914.732986, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.047915816277495304, 0.9520841837225047 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Texas has gradually been trending less Republican in the last quarter of a century. George W. Bush received 60% of the valid votes in the state in [2000](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2004](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas), while in [2016](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) the equivalent number was close to 52% in both elections.\n\n[Linear trend](https://i.imgur.com/0OybLvV.png), taking into account all the presidential elections since 2000, suggests that the Republican candidate would be close to the 50% mark in 2024 elections.\n\nAdditional consideration is the strength of third party candidates this cycle. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. [has polled](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/texas/) in mid to high single digits in Texas, potentially stripping the Republican candidate of a majority of votes in the state. Ross Perot managed the feat in both [1992](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) and [1996](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1996_United_States_presidential_election_in_Texas) elections, though his vote share especially in 1992 was markedly higher.\n\nReceiving under 50% of the vote in Texas – especially if it happens without a sizeable third party candidate – would mark another milestone in the journey of the Lone Star State towards being a battleground for future presidential cycles, even if the Republican candidate ends up winning the state in 2024, as is all but sure." }, { "id": 27312, "title": "Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?", "short_title": "2024 White Sox historic losing season", "url_title": "2024 White Sox historic losing season", "slug": "2024-white-sox-historic-losing-season", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-15T04:51:04.118290Z", "published_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.107235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27312, "title": "Will the White Sox lose 120 or more games in the 2024 MLB season?", "created_at": "2024-08-15T04:51:04.118290Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-22T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context.", "resolution_criteria": "The Chicago White Sox's loss total will be determined by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions), in particular, accounts of the 2024 season provided by [Major League Baseball](https://www.mlb.com/standings/). If it is greater than or equal to 120 losses for 2024, this question resolves as **Yes**. Under 120 resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The White Sox are expected to play 162 regular season games in the 2024 season, just like all other Major League Baseball teams. If there is a cancelled game from the 162 game total (like one game in the 114 loss 2019 Detroit Tigers' season), then the cancelled game(s) for the Chicago White Sox will be counted as 0.65 of a loss per cancelled game, rounded to the nearest integer, for the purposes of this question's resolution.\n\nThe White Sox will also be awarded a loss in that manner if they were to play made-up games (outside of a league-wide stoppage outlined below) after Sunday, September 29, 2024, the scheduled 162nd game of the season against the Detroit Tigers.\n\nIf the 2024 MLB season is truncated, due to some extraordinary event, with 10 teams not playing 10 or more games in their schedule, then this question is **annulled**. One of teams has to be the White Sox or the cancelled or postponed games will be addressed through the 0.65 of a loss per cancelled game.\n\nIf the league (as opposed to the White Sox specifically) were to continue the 2024 regular season after the \"extraordinary event\" before November 1, 2024, the this question will have its resolution date extended to the date of the new scheduled conclusion of the regular season.", "post_id": 27312, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727028730.501854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.994 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727028730.501854, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.994 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.006000000000000005, 0.994 ], "means": [ 0.9901800236728191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 1.0, 0.2816923420615094, 7.177104064996268 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.545613495101449, "coverage": 0.8337100146852973, "baseline_score": 62.62380240576761, "spot_peer_score": 12.835653970969709, "peer_archived_score": 5.545613495101449, "baseline_archived_score": 62.62380240576761, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.835653970969709 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727028730.55335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727028730.55335, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004673100220464188, 0.9953268997795358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Chicago White Sox have a historical losing season where as of August 14, 2024, they are 29-93 (23.8 percent). They suffered a 21 game losing streak in 2024, starting from the final game of a double-header against the Minnesota Twins in July 10 and ending on August 6 with a win against the Oakland Athletics. \n\nThe 1962 Mets have the most losses in the \"Modern Era\" (1901 to present) with a record of 40-120, with 2 games un-played. The 2003 Detroit Tigers had a record of 43-119.\n\nThe 1916 Philadelphia Athletics have the worst winning percentage of 23.5 percent with a record of 36-117. A 42-120 record to satisfy this question's resolution results in a winning percentage of 25.9 percent.\n\nSee [this Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_worst_Major_League_Baseball_season_win%E2%80%93loss_records) on worst MLB seasons for historical context." }, { "id": 27311, "title": "Will Kamala Harris say \"artificial intelligence\" or \"AI\" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?", "short_title": "Kamala \"artificial intelligence\" DNC speech?", "url_title": "Kamala \"artificial intelligence\" DNC speech?", "slug": "kamala-artificial-intelligence-dnc-speech", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:49:09.962744Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.161301Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27311, "title": "Will Kamala Harris say \"artificial intelligence\" or \"AI\" in her 2024 Democratic National Convention keynote speech?", "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:49:09.962744Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-22T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T03:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T03:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T03:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-22T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial intelligence has been a recurring theme in the 2024 election, with for example Republican nominee Donald Trump [accusing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/11/trump-harris-rally-crowd-ai-conspiracy.html) Kamala Harris's campaign of using AI to create fake crowd pictures at her August 7, 2024 rally. \n\nIn March 2024, Vice President Harris [officially announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/28/fact-sheet-vice-president-harris-announces-omb-policy-to-advance-governance-innovation-and-risk-management-in-federal-agencies-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was creating a government-wide policy \"to mitigate risks of artificial intelligence (AI) and harness its benefits.\" In November 2023, Harris gave [this speech](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/) on artificial intelligence. In [Trump's acceptance speech](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-republican-national-convention-milwaukee), he mentioned artificial intelligence once: \"But A.I. needs tremendous — literally, twice the electricity that's available now in our country, can you imagine?\"\n\nThe 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held from Monday, August 19 through Thursday, August 22, with Harris [anticipated to speak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention#Fourth_night_(Thursday,_August_22)) on the final night.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Kamala Harris utters \"artificial intelligence\" or \"A.I.\" during her nomination acceptance speech at the 2024 Democratic National Convention. If she does not say either term, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nDetermination of whether she has said \"artificial intelligence\" or \"A.I.\" will be at the sole discretion of Metaculus Admins. In cases of ambiguity they may consult a transcript from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as the [American Presidency Project](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/app-categories/elections-and-transitions/convention-speeches). It is important to note, however, that in the absence of a clear utterance of either term, especially if it does not appear in a transcript per the credible sources policy linked above, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Other forms such as plural or possessive (including as a [verb](https://x.com/grady_booch/status/1822719224424632743)) will count, as long as the root is used.\n\nDiscussion of the subject matter, without actually using either term, will not count. Neither will synonyms such as \"machine intelligence.\"\n\nIf Kamala Harris does not deliver a nomination acceptance speech at the 2024 DNC, this question will be annulled. \n\nMentions of \"artificial intelligence\" or \"A.I.\" by anyone other than Harris will not count.\n\nMentions of the phrase before the speech has begun or after it has ended will not count.", "post_id": 27311, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724363404.469294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724363404.469294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.3398818986813081 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18037658447122673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13256522160115436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5705170627006875, 0.865981042034266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9244383481296953, 0.0, 0.4741317757842507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8285174574545621, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3781260466281475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14329328159663618, 1.0, 1.1838183124046744, 0.0, 0.14500482192877664, 0.0, 0.24582773872283623, 0.016175296562339986, 0.0, 0.7258864312822346, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1019474442198856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26133800879455793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12948046043583153, 0.023344988892241045, 0.329024976296409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060957830206119154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09043497114579632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368733977514088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08534350794329564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3613315105385659, 0.0, 0.03326916664747106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.17154700045314, "coverage": 0.9999147392297768, "baseline_score": -30.579048747686112, "spot_peer_score": 7.87374056061501, "peer_archived_score": 14.17154700045314, "baseline_archived_score": -30.579048747686112, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.87374056061501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724363404.499938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724363404.499938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8667422651354101, 0.13325773486458994 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial intelligence has been a recurring theme in the 2024 election, with for example Republican nominee Donald Trump [accusing](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/11/trump-harris-rally-crowd-ai-conspiracy.html) Kamala Harris's campaign of using AI to create fake crowd pictures at her August 7, 2024 rally. \n\nIn March 2024, Vice President Harris [officially announced](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/03/28/fact-sheet-vice-president-harris-announces-omb-policy-to-advance-governance-innovation-and-risk-management-in-federal-agencies-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) that the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was creating a government-wide policy \"to mitigate risks of artificial intelligence (AI) and harness its benefits.\" In November 2023, Harris gave [this speech](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/) on artificial intelligence. In [Trump's acceptance speech](https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/address-accepting-the-presidential-nomination-the-republican-national-convention-milwaukee), he mentioned artificial intelligence once: \"But A.I. needs tremendous — literally, twice the electricity that's available now in our country, can you imagine?\"\n\nThe 2024 Democratic National Convention (DNC) will be held from Monday, August 19 through Thursday, August 22, with Harris [anticipated to speak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention#Fourth_night_(Thursday,_August_22)) on the final night." }, { "id": 27310, "title": "Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?", "short_title": "Hurricane Ernesto Major Damage in Bermuda", "url_title": "Hurricane Ernesto Major Damage in Bermuda", "slug": "hurricane-ernesto-major-damage-in-bermuda", "author_id": 196659, "author_username": "mavik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:42:35.536574Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.541839Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27310, "title": "Will Hurricane Ernesto cause major damage in Bermuda, exceeding $200 million (USD)?", "created_at": "2024-08-14T22:42:35.536574Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T00:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T09:01:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T09:01:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-01T17:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-19T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane Ernesto (05L) is being monitored as it approaches Bermuda, with potential for significant financial damage. This question seeks to determine whether total damages, including infrastructure, property, and utility costs, will exceed $200 million.\n\nPlease see also: \n\n- [Hurricane Ernesto churns toward Bermuda as Category 1 storm](https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-ernesto-churns-bermuda-category-1-storm/story?id=112854289)\n\n- Accuweather: [Bermuda's resiliency to hurricanes dates back 300 years](https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bermudas-resiliency-to-hurricanes-dates-back-300-years/1680270)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the catastrophe modeling company [Core Logic](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/blogs/hazard-hq/), total estimated insurable losses to Bermuda from Hurricane Ernesto exceed $200 million, in US dollars. If damages are reported as less than $200 million, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Typically Core Logic has offered estimates of insured losses from hurricanes within a few days. For example, it recently published its [estimate](https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/blogs/hazard-hq/hurricane-beryl-windward-islands/) for damage to Texas two days after Hurricane Beryl's landfall in the state. If Core Logic does not offer a hurricane damage estimate for Bermuda from Hurricane Ernesto before September 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**. \n\nThis question's definition of \"losses\" will rely on Core Logic's methodology. According to Core Logic, regarding Hurricane Beryl:\n\n>The estimated losses include wind-only damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and agricultural properties, including damage to contents and business interruption. Insurable losses account for damage to all modeled exposure types prior to the application of any insurance terms (e.g., deductibles or limits). It does not include losses to any regional insurance pools\n\nCurrency Adjustment: If damage estimates are provided in a currency other than USD, they will be converted using the exchange rate on the date of the report.\n\nIn case of range estimates, the midpoint of the range will be used. For example, Core Logic recently estimated damage to Texas from Hurricane Beryl of $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion, which would have resolved to $3.0 billion.\n\nThis question resolves based on Core Logic's first published estimate; any subsequent revisions will not be considered.", "post_id": 27310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724077164.832914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724077164.832914, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.25724284378611645 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8726435988271029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.1036511093848413, "coverage": 0.9997522647926498, "baseline_score": 39.86084719531485, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 3.1036511093848413, "baseline_archived_score": 39.86084719531485, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724077164.864475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724077164.864475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8924713014652524, 0.10752869853474759 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane Ernesto (05L) is being monitored as it approaches Bermuda, with potential for significant financial damage. This question seeks to determine whether total damages, including infrastructure, property, and utility costs, will exceed $200 million.\n\nPlease see also: \n\n- [Hurricane Ernesto churns toward Bermuda as Category 1 storm](https://abcnews.go.com/US/hurricane-ernesto-churns-bermuda-category-1-storm/story?id=112854289)\n\n- Accuweather: [Bermuda's resiliency to hurricanes dates back 300 years](https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/bermudas-resiliency-to-hurricanes-dates-back-300-years/1680270)" }, { "id": 27289, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Sinwar cease as Political Head of Hamas?", "url_title": "Will Sinwar cease as Political Head of Hamas?", "slug": "will-sinwar-cease-as-political-head-of-hamas", "author_id": 198585, "author_username": "Mr.Outlook", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-13T22:01:25.428419Z", "published_at": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.606496Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27289, "title": "Will Yahya Sinwar cease to be the acting Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T22:01:25.428419Z", "open_time": "2024-08-17T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-20T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-20T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-17T21:16:44.079006Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-17T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was \"[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)\" from capturing Sinwar.\n\nPrevious Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:\n\n- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.\n- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.\n- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any of the following events happen according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions):\n\n- Yahya Sinwar has stepped down or been replaced as Chairman of the Hamas Political Bureau.\n- Sinwar is captured (even if he is still officially in the Chairman role).\n- Sinwar has died.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if there is no such reporting of any of these events.", "fine_print": "Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 27289, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1729192154.979939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.579 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1729192154.979939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.579 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.8033690277616078 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.21693921071189126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5087147398947933, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15536336192763697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.283651583435268 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -28.73125215018024, "peer_score": 4.559550181172955, "coverage": 0.44833314825982107, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.998325000877266, "spot_peer_score": 5.619194986055463, "baseline_archived_score": -28.73125215018024, "peer_archived_score": 4.559550181172955, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.619194986055463 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289606.115625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289606.115625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8578023009671829, 0.14219769903281715 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the July 31, 2024 assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas's political wing, Yahya Sinwar [was named](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/hamas-names-gaza-leader-yahya-sinwar-chief-following-haniyeh-killing-statement-2024-08-06/) Haniyeh's successor. According to a recent [CNN report](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/11/middleeast/hamas-sinwar-ceasefire-netanyahu-intl/index.html), Sinwar favors a ceasefire in the ongoing Israel-Hamas War. For its part, Israel [considers](https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/hamas-names-sinwar-as-new-leader-following-haniyehs-assassination/) Sinwar to be an architect of the Hamas-led attacks on Israel that took place on October 7, 2023. According to General Dan Goldfus of the Israeli Defense Forces, during one raid on the tunnels beneath Gaza, the IDF was \"[minutes away](https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-coffee-was-still-hot-idf-general-says-troops-were-minutes-from-catching-sinwar/)\" from capturing Sinwar.\n\nPrevious Chairmen of the Hamas Political Bureau have been:\n\n- Khaled Mashal, April 17, 2004 to May 6, 2017.\n- Ismail Haniyeh, May 6, 2017 to July 31, 2024.\n- Yahya Sinwar, August 6, 2024 to present." }, { "id": 27283, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-rivian", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:40.054109Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.237029Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27283, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Rivian?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:40.054109Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rivian had lay off events in February and April 2024, cutting its workforce by 10% and 1%, respectively. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Rivian has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Rivian appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Rivian is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Rivian. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.", "post_id": 27283, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249740.341953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249740.341953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.545 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45499999999999996, 0.545 ], "means": [ 0.557465487905972 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 1.0274638710700392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19080638481169374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 1.0759545003092659, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.6184456435437344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.546938895916825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.15194759720588047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8623733757154263, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.9172371287241657, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -13.606154957602856, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -13.606154957602856 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249740.369009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249740.369009, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5701083530164167, 0.4298916469835833 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rivian had lay off events in February and April 2024, cutting its workforce by 10% and 1%, respectively. " }, { "id": 27282, "title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-see-a-large-scale-riot-between-july-17-2024-and-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.889197Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.899126Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27282, "title": "Will the US see a large-scale riot between July 17, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.889197Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.\n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, 'large-scale riot' is defined as an event of rioting (large-scale disturbance of the peace by a violent crowd) or civil unrest in which any of the following conditions is met:\n\n>1. At least 50 people die due to violence, either due to the actions of rioters or other civilians, or police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>2. At least 10,000 people are arrested by police, military, national guard, or other law enforcement or government agents.\n\n>3. Property damages are credibly estimated at $1 billion or more. This estimate may come from either the local government of the locality in which the incident takes place, the state government, the federal government, or a major US news publication such as the New York Times, Washington Post, or major broadcast news networks.\n\nSuch events should take place in a 100km radius, and within 14 days. As an example, the [1992 LA riots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots) would count, but rioting that is spread across all of California or that occurs in separate phases over a long time period would not count if no single incident met any of the above criteria.\n\nResolution should cite a government statement or credible news reports that indicate that any of the above conditions have been met by an event of rioting.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27282, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249824.582642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21993999999999997 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249824.582642, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21993999999999997 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.1514950790633506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1600576341332742, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 1.0086988656529743, 0.2924926047816516, 0.2801509562747174, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.394595917656631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.34848960163546905, 0.42224310635533713, 0.0, 1.3128907674394386, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.6015137293468026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17200801242793703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249824.61122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249824.61122, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9482894415373468, 0.05171055846265314 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Incidents of civil unrest are not terribly uncommon in the United States, but large-scale rioting is quite rare. One of the most severe incidents in recent history was the 1992 Los Angeles riots, during which more than 60 people were killed, more than 2,350 people were injured, and more than 12,000 people were arrested.\n\nA more recent, albeit less severe, example of a riot (or civil unrest) is the January 6 United States Capitol attack which cuminated in a coordinated attack on the US Capitol building by far-right, pro-Trump militias resulting in 5 deaths and injuries exceeding 100 persons." }, { "id": 27281, "title": "Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-warren-buffett-indicator-exceed-200-before-september-17-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.413840Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.099763Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T12:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T12:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27281, "title": "Will the Warren Buffett Indicator exceed 200% before September 17, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.413840Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T12:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-18T12:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-18T12:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 17, 2024 the Warren Buffett Indicator exceeds 200%, as reported at the [Longtermtrends website](https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/), specifically the *Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio* on that page. If before that date the Warren Buffett Indicator has not exceeded 200%, this question resolves as No.\n\nThe figures can be viewed either on the chart itself or by viewing the CSV, XLX, or data table. As of July 10, 2024, the most recent figure displayed in the data table was 196.20375072862052 for July 8, 2024. ", "fine_print": "The Warren Buffett indicator will be considered to have exceeded 200% only if it reaches a value of 200.00000000000001 or higher. Any value below 200 in the Wilshire 5000 to GDP Ratio column of the data table, even 199.99999999999999, will not be considered as exceeding 200%.\n\nIn cases in which the chart might show 200.00% and the data table shows a value higher than that (for example 200.0000000000001) the data table will take precedence when it comes to resolution.\n\nIf the numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted in a timely manner, the question will wait for resolution until September 30, 2024. If on that date the Warren Buffet Indicator numbers through September 16, 2024 are not posted, this question will resolve based on the most recent numbers. \n\nIf the Longtermtrends website stops tracking the Warren Buffett Indicator, this question will be annulled.\n", "post_id": 27281, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249850.565784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5376666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249850.565784, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5376666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4623333333333334, 0.5376666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4953650224105367 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6403370375901634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.638455000653369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6081802360155482, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5277671320194384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4767410908382156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3380508809928928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3556209959204488, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -11.299471305964037, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -11.299471305964037 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249850.593063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249850.593063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5077428070759372, 0.4922571929240628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a 2001 article co-written with Fortune Magazine's Carol Loomis, Warren Buffett [said](https://web.archive.org/web/20141013162215/https://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2001/12/10/314691/index.htm):\n\n>The chart shows the market value of all publicly traded securities as a percentage of the country's business--that is, as a percentage of GNP. The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment. And as you can see, nearly two years ago the ratio rose to an unprecedented level. That should have been a very strong warning signal.\n\n>For investors to gain wealth at a rate that exceeds the growth of U.S. business, the percentage relationship line on the chart must keep going up and up. If GNP is going to grow 5% a year and you want market values to go up 10%, then you need to have the line go straight off the top of the chart. That won't happen.\n\n>For me, the message of that chart is this: If the percentage relationship falls to the 70% or 80% area, buying stocks is likely to work very well for you. If the ratio approaches 200%--as it did in 1999 and a part of 2000--you are playing with fire. As you can see, the ratio was recently 133%.\n\nAstute forecasters will note that Buffett's methodology slightly differs from the Longtermtrends website in that Buffett has the GNP as his denominator, while has Longtermtrends has GDP as its denominator." }, { "id": 27280, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.269037Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.648514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27280, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.269037Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27280, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249777.846716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249777.846716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19 ], "centers": [ 0.275 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.725, 0.275 ], "means": [ 0.297624484425471 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.6813737363707734, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.6725525385367657, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5855994173199142, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3444273625816051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7522390818837918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724249777.876425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724249777.876425, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7834154267158033, 0.21658457328419664 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved." }, { "id": 27279, "title": "On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-sept-30-2024-will-more-than-300-and-less-than-or-equal-to-400-measles-cases-have-been-reported-in-the-united-states-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.162894Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.326558Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27279, "title": "On Sept 30, 2024 will more than 300 and less than or equal to 400 measles cases have been reported in the United States in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:15:39.162894Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-21T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The latest cases and outbreaks update from the CDC reported a total of 167 cases reported in 2024 as of July 15. 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