Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2620
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2640", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2600", "results": [ { "id": 25125, "title": "Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?", "short_title": "Guardian Council Approve Ahmadinejad 2024", "url_title": "Guardian Council Approve Ahmadinejad 2024", "slug": "guardian-council-approve-ahmadinejad-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-06T02:34:00.930791Z", "published_at": "2024-06-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.149608Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25125, "title": "Will Iran's Guardian Council include Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's name on its list of approved candidates for president of Iran?", "created_at": "2024-06-06T02:34:00.930791Z", "open_time": "2024-06-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-07T23:20:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-07T23:20:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-11T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T13:55:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is included in Iran's Guardian Council's list of qualified presidential candidates for the upcoming presidential election.", "fine_print": "* If the Guardian Council does not publish its list of approved candidates before June 27, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25125, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717950421.11679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717950421.11679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.018431213382361245 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.254955311348311, 2.8153736852430775, 0.718332128659227, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.2188564438547366, 0.0, 0.3643458643011109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.12499472235242584, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.507803423954753, "coverage": 0.5358683851506665, "baseline_score": 41.868627302327425, "spot_peer_score": 18.032173489051896, "peer_archived_score": 8.507803423954753, "baseline_archived_score": 41.868627302327425, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.032173489051896 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717940050.93066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717940050.93066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9927681241053489, 0.0072318758946511045 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 presidential election in Iran is set for June 28, following the [sudden death](https://apnews.com/article/iran-president-ebrahim-raisi-426c6f4ae2dd1f0801c73875bb696f48) of President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash on May 19. In the wake of Raisi's death, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei [appointed](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/irans-khamenei-confirms-mohammad-mokhber-as-interim-president) First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber as interim head of government and mandated a snap election within 50 days.\n\nIran's [Guardian Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guardian_Council), a 12-member body responsible for (among other functions) vetting electoral candidates, plays a crucial role in Iran’s political landscape. Comprising six members appointed by the Supreme Leader and six nominated by the head of the judiciary (also appointed by the Supreme Leader), the Council has a history of disqualifying reformist and moderate candidates.\n\n[Mahmoud Ahmadinejad](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmadinejad), who served as Iran's president from 2005 to 2013, has registered as a candidate in the snap election. His tenure was marked by controversy with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and he was subsequently disqualified by the Guardian Council from running in the 2017 and 2021 elections. \n\nThe Guardian Council has [indicated](https://iranwire.com/en/politics/130202-irans-guardian-council-aims-to-speed-up-vetting-of-presidential-candidates/) that it will announce its list of approved candidates on June 11." }, { "id": 25107, "title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?", "short_title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university", "url_title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university", "slug": "will-ucla-hold-its-in-person-university", "author_id": 122456, "author_username": "nlp-pipeline-service-account", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-05T13:41:11.133930Z", "published_at": "2024-06-05T05:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.208090Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-05T13:41:11.536778Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-05T05:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 2, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3294, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI benchmarking warmup", "slug": "ai-benchmarking-warmup", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/Screen_Shot_2024-06-05_at_9.28.25_AM.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-06-04T14:54:30Z", "close_date": "2024-07-07T14:54:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-04T14:54:30.702277Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-02T17:47:34.729704Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25107, "title": "Will UCLA hold its in-person, university-wide graduation commencement ceremonies scheduled for June 14, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-06-05T13:41:11.133930Z", "open_time": "2024-06-05T05:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-07T13:46:34.600621Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-09T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 6, 2024, Columbia University [cancelled](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/06/columbia-commencement-ceremony-protest-live-updates/73583447007/) its main commencement ceremony, opting instead to honor its graduates in 19 smaller ceremonies for each of its colleges. The decision was made in response to pro-Palestinian protests that erupted at the university. \r\n\r\nUCLA has [cancelled in-person classes](https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ucla-cancel-in-person-classes-again-after-more-israel-hamas-war-protests/) at its campus, and there has been speculation that it may cancel its main commencement as well. Its fellow southern California school, USC, recently [moved its ceremony](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-03/usc-shores-up-campus-limits-access-before-commencement) to the LA Coliseum.\r\n\r\nSee Also: \r\n\r\nMSN: [Pro-Palestinian Protests Put College Commencements in Jeopardy](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pro-palestinian-protests-put-college-commencements-in-jeopardy/ar-BB1lUU4h)\r\n\r\nNewsweek: [Full List of Colleges Cancelling Graduation Services Amid Campus Protests](https://www.newsweek.com/columbia-cancels-graduation-ceremony-universities-palestine-protests-1897560)\r\n\r\nUSA Today: [College graduation canceled due to anti-war protests? It's happened before](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/05/07/why-do-colleges-cancel-graduation-a-brief-history/73586349007/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the University of California-Los Angeles (UCLA) holds all three of its main in-person college commencement ceremonies for the graduating Class of 2024 [scheduled](https://commencement.ucla.edu/schedule/ucla-commencement-schedule-alphabetical#college) for the following times and locations on June 14, 2024:\r\n\r\n- 11 AM at the Pauley Pavilion\r\n- 3 PM at the Pauley Pavilion\r\n- 7 PM at the Pauley Pavilion\r\n\r\nThe ceremonies must all occur at the specified locations and begin within 1 hour of the scheduled starting time. \r\n\r\nThis question will resolve as **No** if any ceremony either does not begin within an hour of the scheduled time, is moved to another location, or is held entirely online (i.e., without graduates, faculty, and guests attending in person).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25107, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 2, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.65 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717888081.240938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3767864302478975, 0.6232135697521025 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 6, 2024, Columbia University [cancelled](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2024/05/06/columbia-commencement-ceremony-protest-live-updates/73583447007/) its main commencement ceremony, opting instead to honor its graduates in 19 smaller ceremonies for each of its colleges. The decision was made in response to pro-Palestinian protests that erupted at the university. \r\n\r\nUCLA has [cancelled in-person classes](https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/ucla-cancel-in-person-classes-again-after-more-israel-hamas-war-protests/) at its campus, and there has been speculation that it may cancel its main commencement as well. Its fellow southern California school, USC, recently [moved its ceremony](https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-05-03/usc-shores-up-campus-limits-access-before-commencement) to the LA Coliseum.\r\n\r\nSee Also: \r\n\r\nMSN: [Pro-Palestinian Protests Put College Commencements in Jeopardy](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/pro-palestinian-protests-put-college-commencements-in-jeopardy/ar-BB1lUU4h)\r\n\r\nNewsweek: [Full List of Colleges Cancelling Graduation Services Amid Campus Protests](https://www.newsweek.com/columbia-cancels-graduation-ceremony-universities-palestine-protests-1897560)\r\n\r\nUSA Today: [College graduation canceled due to anti-war protests? It's happened before](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/education/2024/05/07/why-do-colleges-cancel-graduation-a-brief-history/73586349007/)" }, { "id": 24819, "title": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?", "short_title": "USMCA Extended at Joint Review?", "url_title": "USMCA Extended at Joint Review?", "slug": "usmca-extended-at-joint-review", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-06-01T00:58:09.360555Z", "published_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T08:04:22.468439Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24819, "title": "Will the USMCA be extended promptly at its July 2026 joint review?", "created_at": "2024-06-01T00:58:09.360555Z", "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-05T11:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-05T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-08-01T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-07-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-07-01T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, following the joint review of the USMCA held in July 2026, the USMCA is extended for another 16-year period. The question will resolve as **No** if the joint review ends without extension, triggering the annual review process described in paragraph 4 of [Article 34.7 of the USMCA](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf).", "fine_print": "* If the joint review process has not ended, or has not started, before September 1, 2026, the question will also resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 24819, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758355451.746961, "end_time": 1786149397.278, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758355451.746961, "end_time": 1786149397.278, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.2883555882372523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.954362327571261, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288596.106613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288596.106613, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5796154138426524, 0.42038458615734764 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF10997) (USMCA) is a trade deal between the United States, Mexico, and Canada that replaced the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Signed on November 30, 2018, and implemented on July 1, 2020, the USMCA aimed to modernize trade relations and address issues that had emerged since NAFTA's implementation in 1994.\r\n\r\nThe USMCA [will undergo a review period](https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/agreements/FTA/USMCA/Text/34_Final_Provisions.pdf) on its sixth anniversary, where it will be extended for another 16 years if all parties agree to extend it. If the parties do not agree to extend the USMCA, it will trigger an annual review process held each year until the deal expires in 2036 unless an extension is agreed to at one of the annual reviews. The Trump administration [pushed for the review process](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/usmca-review-upcoming-elections-and-a-path-forward/) and some observers expect that if Trump is president during the review he will push for significant changes. [Biden has also taken a protective stance on trade](https://www.thedialogue.org/analysis/will-the-usmca-accord-survive-an-upcoming-review/) and may push for changes more favorable to key US industries. It is possible that a contentious review process could lead to one or more parties withholding consent for an extension." }, { "id": 24814, "title": "Will \"stagflation\" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the \"misery index\" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?", "short_title": "Misery Index Exceed 10 Before 2026?", "url_title": "Misery Index Exceed 10 Before 2026?", "slug": "misery-index-exceed-10-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T22:36:07.845478Z", "published_at": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:23:59.026545Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2018, "type": "question_series", "name": "Economic Indicators", "slug": "economic-indicators", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/economic_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2040-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T15:06:58.095614Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2018, "type": "question_series", "name": "Economic Indicators", "slug": "economic-indicators", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/economic_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-12-19T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2040-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T15:06:58.095614Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24814, "title": "Will \"stagflation\" occur in the United States before 2026, as measured by the \"misery index\" reaching 10 or more for at least three consecutive months?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T22:36:07.845478Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-04T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-02-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "At a recent Goldman Sachs investment event, CEO of JPMorgan Chase [Jamie Dimon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon) was [reported to have said the following](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-won-t-lead-stagflation-193751412.html) about the potential for stagflation:\n\n>I'm not saying it's going to happen, I just give the odds much higher than other people. . . I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years—it has been so extraordinary, how can you tell me it won't lead to stagflation? . . . It might not, but I, for one, am quite prepared for it.\n\n[\"Stagflation\"](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp) is typically characterized by high unemployment and high inflation occurring simultaneously. One measure of these combined metrics has been dubbed the \"misery index\". As described by [The Fred Blog](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/07/measuring-misery/):\n\n>The mandate of the Federal Reserve calls for stable prices and maximum employment. One way to assess these conditions is to look at the consumer price index inflation rate and the unemployment rate, respectively. It has even become somewhat popular to look at the sum of these two measures, the so-called “misery index”. . .\n\nThe misery index is the sum of the consumer price index and unemployment rate in the United States. It peaked above a value of 20 in the early 1980s, at the tail end of the period most associated with the term \"stagflation\" in the US. In April of 2024 the latest value was 7.25.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1olYd&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, the \"[misery index](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1dD3)\" has been 10 or more for at least three consecutive months in the United States.", "fine_print": "* Specifically, if in the period from June 2024 to December 2025 the resolution source, which is the Federal Reserve Economic Data's *Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average+Unemployment Rate* (linked from the main Resolution Criteria), shows three consecutive months as having a value of 10 or above then this question will resolve as **Yes**. \n* This question will resolve when the value for December 2025 is first available.\n* Whether figures are preliminary or final is immaterial, it will resolve as **Yes** if the resolution criteria have been met at any time, so long as Metaculus has no reason to believe the values shown are in error.", "post_id": 24814, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757471028.512235, "end_time": 1760063028.329, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757471028.512235, "end_time": 1760063028.329, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.10492577300285236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.7490672709776599, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.9287429580134396, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.45972621534782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1117671362091623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288609.333758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288609.333758, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9557573289204843, 0.04424267107951575 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 40, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "At a recent Goldman Sachs investment event, CEO of JPMorgan Chase [Jamie Dimon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jamie_Dimon) was [reported to have said the following](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tell-won-t-lead-stagflation-193751412.html) about the potential for stagflation:\n\n>I'm not saying it's going to happen, I just give the odds much higher than other people. . . I look at the amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus that has taken place over the last five years—it has been so extraordinary, how can you tell me it won't lead to stagflation? . . . It might not, but I, for one, am quite prepared for it.\n\n[\"Stagflation\"](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/stagflation.asp) is typically characterized by high unemployment and high inflation occurring simultaneously. One measure of these combined metrics has been dubbed the \"misery index\". As described by [The Fred Blog](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2015/07/measuring-misery/):\n\n>The mandate of the Federal Reserve calls for stable prices and maximum employment. One way to assess these conditions is to look at the consumer price index inflation rate and the unemployment rate, respectively. It has even become somewhat popular to look at the sum of these two measures, the so-called “misery index”. . .\n\nThe misery index is the sum of the consumer price index and unemployment rate in the United States. It peaked above a value of 20 in the early 1980s, at the tail end of the period most associated with the term \"stagflation\" in the US. In April of 2024 the latest value was 7.25.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1olYd&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 24813, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "short_title": "Hungarian MEP Election: Will Fidesz-KDNP Win?", "url_title": "Hungarian MEP Election: Will Fidesz-KDNP Win?", "slug": "hungarian-mep-election-will-fidesz-kdnp-win", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T20:36:56.545942Z", "published_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.585000Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24813, "title": "Will Fidesz-KDNP Maintain Its EU Plurality from Hungary in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T20:36:56.545942Z", "open_time": "2024-06-02T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-03T07:17:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-03T07:17:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-11T22:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-10T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if, following the 2024 European Parliament elections, the Fidesz-KDNP alliance secures more seats than any other single party or coalition, thereby maintaining the highest number of Hungarian seats in the European Parliament, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "- This question will resolve based on the official results as published by the National Election Office of Hungary or reported by other credible sources.\n- The resolution will consider the total number of seats won by the Fidesz-KDNP alliance versus other parties or coalitions.\n- The election date is set for June 9, 2024. If the elections are postponed, the timeline for this question will be adjusted to reflect the new election date.\n- Only the official announcement of the number of seats won is required for this question to resolve; the actual taking of seats or inauguration of MEPs is not necessary.", "post_id": 24813, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717975048.129167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717975048.129167, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.9557602640545314 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015538817933844495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3801713464000618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7540557966122892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9512321483238524, 0.7800991750591255, 1.7187220385267068, 0.8398068337918239, 0.6178054680864423, 1.9596233434872878, 2.7351100276464377 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.878882378114688, "coverage": 0.9987563291146724, "baseline_score": 89.80852542799308, "spot_peer_score": 1.2452260597434237, "peer_archived_score": 5.878882378114688, "baseline_archived_score": 89.80852542799308, "spot_peer_archived_score": 1.2452260597434237 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717975048.170057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717975048.170057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.062328261009693464, 0.9376717389903065 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Fidesz-KDNP alliance has long been a dominant political force in Hungary, championed by Viktor Orbán's Fidesz and the Christian Democratic People's Party (KDNP). Since 2005, they have secured a significant majority of Hungary's seats in the European Parliament, capitalizing on shared conservative and nationalistic ideologies. \n\nHowever, the alliance faces [new challenges](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-orban-eu-election-magyar-fidesz-russia-f53cd35e52a9f91c34b00d8dd6f85694) as Péter Magyar, a former insider of the Fidesz party, breaks ranks and forms his own party, Tisztelet és Szabadság (Respect and Freedom). Magyar's emergence comes at a time when Fidesz is grappling with scandals and a loss of public trust, highlighted by significant resignations within its ranks.\n\nThe 2024 European Parliament elections are critical for the alliance as they face increasing internal and EU-wide challenges, including economic pressures and debates over the EU's influence on national policies. These elections will test the alliance's ability to maintain its influence amid growing political diversity and opposition within Hungary." }, { "id": 24812, "title": "Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?", "short_title": "Flying taxis in 5 cities before 2029", "url_title": "Flying taxis in 5 cities before 2029", "slug": "flying-taxis-in-5-cities-before-2029", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T18:39:05.058518Z", "published_at": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-08T13:24:31.672996Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24812, "title": "Will it be possible to order flying taxis in at least 5 cities before 2029?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T18:39:05.058518Z", "open_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-03-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Flying cars and flying taxis has long been a staple of science fiction but has been slow to take off. In recent years, startups and companies have shown increasing interest, prototypes and plans to start actual flying taxi services.\n\nFor instance, Archer Aviation plans to launch commercial programs [in 2026 in South Korea, India and the United Arab Emirates](https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/30/archer-kakao-mobility-partner-to-bring-evtol-to-south-korea-in-2026/). Trials will also be available in Paris [at the 2024 Olympics](https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/28/would-you-order-a-flying-taxi-they-will-take-off-for-the-first-time-in-paris-this-summer).\n\nHowever, there have been many previous plans for such services that have failed to materialise which might make one wonder whether this will actually pan out in the short term.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if, before January 1, 2029, there is verifiable evidence on credible sources that customers can order flying taxi services in at least 5 distinct cities across at least 2 continents. Otherwise this question resolves negatively.\n\nEach city must have flying taxi services that are accessible to the general public through a standard commercial platform. It shall be possible to order a ride through a publicly accessible service, such as a mobile app, website, or a dedicated service hotline.\n\nThe service must be available to any individual who meets the standard customer requirements (e.g., age, payment method) and must not be restricted to participants in a pilot or test program.\n\nThe service must be operational for at least three consecutive months of regular operation, not interrupted by regulatory or technical issues. Services that begin operation in late 2028 will still qualify if they complete this three-month operational requirement before March 1, 2029.", "fine_print": "For the resolution of this question, a flying taxi will be considered as an electric vehicle capable of vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), designed to carry passengers within urban and suburban environments. These vehicles must be operated by a company offering ride-hailing services similar to traditional taxis or ride-sharing services.\n\nRegular customers will be individuals who are not part of any beta testing or pilot programs but can access the service through a standard commercial platform (e.g., a mobile app) without special memberships or invitations.\n\nTo count for resolution, the considered cities must have at a minimum a population of 50,000 people or a density of 500 per km². \n\nCities that are located within a 100km distance from other cities where such a service is available will be considered part of the same metropolitan area and will only count as one city.", "post_id": 24812, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757337860.953304, "end_time": 1762640431.667927, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757337860.953304, "end_time": 1762640431.667927, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.1374137770779752 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.766258029211126, 0.7755906393290006, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.39974624522395324, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287816.377757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287816.377757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9821966265452595, 0.01780337345474051 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Flying cars and flying taxis has long been a staple of science fiction but has been slow to take off. In recent years, startups and companies have shown increasing interest, prototypes and plans to start actual flying taxi services.\n\nFor instance, Archer Aviation plans to launch commercial programs [in 2026 in South Korea, India and the United Arab Emirates](https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/30/archer-kakao-mobility-partner-to-bring-evtol-to-south-korea-in-2026/). Trials will also be available in Paris [at the 2024 Olympics](https://www.euronews.com/business/2024/02/28/would-you-order-a-flying-taxi-they-will-take-off-for-the-first-time-in-paris-this-summer).\n\nHowever, there have been many previous plans for such services that have failed to materialise which might make one wonder whether this will actually pan out in the short term." }, { "id": 24811, "title": "Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?", "short_title": "South Africa Elects President by July 2024?", "url_title": "South Africa Elects President by July 2024?", "slug": "south-africa-elects-president-by-july-2024", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T17:17:34.077352Z", "published_at": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.944116Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24811, "title": "Will South Africa elect a president before July 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T17:17:34.077352Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-04T13:26:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T13:26:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T22:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple majority of 201 out of 400 lawmakers. Due to the [ANC's declining support](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320), coalition talks are anticipated, which could delay the election of the president.\n\nThe results of the national election held on May 29, 2024, are expected to be announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) by the Sunday following the election, and the new Parliament [must hold its first session within 14 days of the announcement of the election results](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the South African National Assembly officially elects a president before July 1, 2024, according to reports from credible sources.", "fine_print": "* The president need not be inaugurated before the date of resolution, only the announcement that a vote has been held successfully selecting a new president-elect is required.\n* The appointment of an acting president does not qualify, only a president officially elected by Parliament counts.", "post_id": 24811, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718390201.251386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718390201.251386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8881368605338478 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.08440963331553128, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00690055714538651, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01414047269109762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024521526059856833, 0.3865228806448546, 0.10565998016134397, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01142289099346694, 0.03365548811464179, 0.0, 0.13294920078905473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22612079235387852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35628573046604867, 0.7965517069063007, 0.31967846996806076, 0.34946576266536805, 0.0, 1.3554377386405487, 0.0, 0.5805438574528169, 0.4925280170881631, 0.2425126729529749, 2.0160129692836994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2920067509037526, 0.0, 0.5350252150826518, 0.9277858371259815, 2.634002188580777 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.758811718819548, "coverage": 0.45139607008193133, "baseline_score": 28.955190522779045, "spot_peer_score": 38.96269008097681, "peer_archived_score": 15.758811718819548, "baseline_archived_score": 28.955190522779045, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.96269008097681 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718390201.302274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718390201.302274, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10881843427647964, 0.8911815657235204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 155, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "South Africa's 2024 national election, held on May 29, is highly contested, with the long-ruling African National Congress (ANC) potentially losing its majority in Parliament for the first time in 30 years. The president of South Africa is elected by Parliament, specifically the National Assembly, requiring a simple majority of 201 out of 400 lawmakers. Due to the [ANC's declining support](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320), coalition talks are anticipated, which could delay the election of the president.\n\nThe results of the national election held on May 29, 2024, are expected to be announced by the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) by the Sunday following the election, and the new Parliament [must hold its first session within 14 days of the announcement of the election results](https://apnews.com/article/south-africa-election-president-vote-bb5529f8ec76f40f0bebdff67bfd2320)." }, { "id": 24806, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024?", "url_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024?", "slug": "nvidia-apple-market-cap-june-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": 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late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 24806, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719517643.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719517643.756885, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 160, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07923265086587854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 7.6834050687199005, 1.6747485594683198, 1.6497014576656364, 2.0930983784841657, 2.333881594134328, 1.4334082190707957, 0.0, 0.6692069484145166, 1.1162486645489103, 1.5360977342825202, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3721929538260713e-05, 0.03240099381406586, 0.5717776304065728, 0.0, 0.14583122109026928, 0.4745011268190125, 0.03420128217299712, 0.13667363591198622, 0.09503780685197431, 0.0, 0.24616454042879166, 0.0, 0.49108062499768873, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06407058269499505, 0.0, 0.02601425451356019, 0.18371607338692422, 0.0, 1.32052368194679e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03609028412840382, 0.3569496291228602, 0.06795719839203156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07890232746364546, 0.041524429877870056, 0.003047431908445808, 0.0020946476157415643, 0.0, 0.12180770084964763, 0.0, 0.0007678738734194133, 0.0, 0.005337957693432018, 0.0, 0.00271814621060401, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05033215965453307, 0.014655188132163256, 3.7184412701723654e-05, 0.00013537616405991175, 0.0, 0.06545347368965798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320497, 0.00208158623424748, 0.0, 0.012241794668064599, 0.0, 0.0006377220559365605, 0.026090970827232444, 0.006101160955103397, 0.0015266238165126385, 0.0, 0.00034960910137161777, 0.02059162497459626, 0.0010937329097037772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015547906705395435, 0.010833931807864537, 0.0004306860501962008, 0.01648825622613728, 0.0, 0.014656506175948858, 0.009361425933368967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021985991589912372, 0.039544123316616456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020512047411653897 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.390889431383805, "coverage": 0.999951698344821, "baseline_score": -27.821441549270677, "spot_peer_score": 21.428009284615907, "peer_archived_score": 25.390889431383805, "baseline_archived_score": -27.821441549270677, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.428009284615907 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719517643.795151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719517643.795151, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9809645976534115, 0.019035402346588483 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 24803, "title": "Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?", "short_title": "Will The Rock run for President by 2052?", "url_title": "Will The Rock run for President by 2052?", "slug": "will-the-rock-run-for-president-by-2052", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-31T04:52:23.001359Z", "published_at": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.227814Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-11-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24803, "title": "Will Dwayne Johnson, The Rock, make a serious run for President of the United States or VP before 2053?", "created_at": "2024-05-31T04:52:23.001359Z", "open_time": "2024-06-05T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-08T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-08T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2052-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2052-11-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2052-11-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Finally, The Rock has come to Metaculus!\n\nDwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson was propelled to fame during his tenure as a main-event wrestler for the World Wrestling Federation, now called the WWE. His charisma when \"cutting promos\" and his in-ring ability resulted in a successful career as a wrestler where he main-evented many pay-per-views (now called \"premium live events\" or \"PLEs\") and held numerous championship reigns. He has become a popular culture icon, and pursued a career as a Hollywood actor and social media influencer. He was joined the board of directors of TKO Group Holdings, which owns the \"WWE\" brand, in 2024.\n\n(In 2024, TKO Group Holdings gave ownership of the trademark of \"The Rock\" to Dwayne Johnson.)\n\nThe author posed this question in levity as a homage to Idiocracy, where a professional wrestler, Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho, was President, and The Simpsons where Lisa Simpson succeed Donald Trump as President. Nevertheless, Dwayne Johnson running for President seems to be realistic possibility that has a more than 0.1 percent chance of occurring.\n\nQuestion author chose 0.5 percent as the cut off for criterion 2 since that is the proportion of votes Evan McMullin received during his 2016 candidacy. Also, Dwayne Johnson would be 80 years in the latter half of 2052, since he was born on May 2, 1972.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Guardian: [Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson: I was asked to run for US president by multiple political parties](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/nov/10/dwayne-the-rock-johnsonus-president-run-party)\n\nNBC News: [Dwayne Johnson Hasn't Dismissed a Presidential Run, with One Caveat](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/is-dwayne-johnson-running-for-president)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if at least one of these events happens:\n\n1. Dwayne Johnson is a candidate vying for the nomination of a political party that received at least 20% of the popular vote in the most recent Presidential election. Johnson meets at least one of the following conditions: \n\n- He appears in at least one nationally televised debate for the candidates for his party's nomination, with at least 2.5 million viewers watching the debate live.\n\n- He wins 1 or more pledged delegate to the party's convention.\n\n2. Dwayne Johnson, as a Presidential candidate, receives more than 0.5 percent of the popular vote in the Presidential election (to cover a scenario where he is a serious third-party candidate).\n\n3. Dwayne Johnson is a Vice Presidential candidate for a Presidential candidate who receive at least the second most number of popular votes or electoral votes in the General Election.\n\nIf none of these three events has occurred before Wednesday November 6, 2052 (i.e., the day after election day 2052), this question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "Filing with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) as a candidate is not enough to resolve this question positively unless at least one of the three criteria listed above is met. \n\nThe question will resolve negatively if Dwayne Johnson is deceased before a positive resolution of the question. \n\nQuestion is annulled if there is a period where there is no Presidential election for 8 consecutive years.", "post_id": 24803, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751675157.626199, "end_time": 1807250094.52191, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751675157.626199, "end_time": 1807250094.52191, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.025 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.975, 0.025 ], "means": [ 0.11806797141038522 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.443003174551545, 2.2006295960132825, 0.9333240859091247, 0.11975643595044741, 0.0, 1.1599153504623563, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287392.466655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287392.466655, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9936573071996334, 0.006342692800366587 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 35, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Finally, The Rock has come to Metaculus!\n\nDwayne \"The Rock\" Johnson was propelled to fame during his tenure as a main-event wrestler for the World Wrestling Federation, now called the WWE. His charisma when \"cutting promos\" and his in-ring ability resulted in a successful career as a wrestler where he main-evented many pay-per-views (now called \"premium live events\" or \"PLEs\") and held numerous championship reigns. He has become a popular culture icon, and pursued a career as a Hollywood actor and social media influencer. He was joined the board of directors of TKO Group Holdings, which owns the \"WWE\" brand, in 2024.\n\n(In 2024, TKO Group Holdings gave ownership of the trademark of \"The Rock\" to Dwayne Johnson.)\n\nThe author posed this question in levity as a homage to Idiocracy, where a professional wrestler, Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho, was President, and The Simpsons where Lisa Simpson succeed Donald Trump as President. Nevertheless, Dwayne Johnson running for President seems to be realistic possibility that has a more than 0.1 percent chance of occurring.\n\nQuestion author chose 0.5 percent as the cut off for criterion 2 since that is the proportion of votes Evan McMullin received during his 2016 candidacy. Also, Dwayne Johnson would be 80 years in the latter half of 2052, since he was born on May 2, 1972.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Guardian: [Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson: I was asked to run for US president by multiple political parties](https://www.theguardian.com/film/2023/nov/10/dwayne-the-rock-johnsonus-president-run-party)\n\nNBC News: [Dwayne Johnson Hasn't Dismissed a Presidential Run, with One Caveat](https://www.nbc.com/nbc-insider/is-dwayne-johnson-running-for-president)" }, { "id": 24802, "title": "Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the \"hush money\" case?", "short_title": "Trump Appeal Hush Money Verdict", "url_title": "Trump Appeal Hush Money Verdict", "slug": "trump-appeal-hush-money-verdict", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T22:10:19.791458Z", "published_at": "2024-05-31T04:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.523089Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24802, "title": "Before November 5th, 2024, will Donald Trump successfully appeal any felony conviction in the \"hush money\" case?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T22:10:19.791458Z", "open_time": "2024-05-31T04:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-15T17:49:20.280662Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 30th, 2024, a jury found Donald Trump guilty on [all 34 felony counts]((https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/donald-trump-verdict-hush-money-trial-rcna152492)) in the \"hush money\" case in New York, making Trump the first American president to be convicted of a felony. \n\nFollowing the verdict, Trump and his supporters [claimed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shameful-republicans-quickly-trumps-defense-after-conviction/story?id=110693679) the trial was biased and politically motivated, and indicated their intention to immediately appeal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, prior to November 5th, 2024, credible sources report that Donald Trump has successfully appealed one or more of the 34 felony counts in the \"hush money\" case.", "fine_print": "* \"Successful appeal\" means an official judicial decision, by any appellate court having jurisdiction, that overturns, vacates, or otherwise nullifies an original guilty verdict on any of the 34 felony counts for which Donald Trump was convicted. This includes decisions to modify the verdict.", "post_id": 24802, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727765754.641022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727765754.641022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 71, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023978865391872755 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.358586970762982, 4.95261784756384, 0.6308355813089158, 0.3103334300199233, 0.36423672253766437, 1.0739338231658775, 0.9657808382050502, 0.003706294648677218, 0.4747323889921012, 0.01504793650297428, 0.015244917867552703, 0.0, 0.0009010622518374086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020496590931671312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07463110673437197, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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Since the 1980s, the number of polio cases has [decreased by over 99%](https://ourworldindata.org/global-fight-polio). Two out of the three [serotypes](https://www.who.int/teams/health-product-policy-and-standards/standards-and-specifications/vaccine-standardization/poliomyelitis) of the wild poliovirus have been eradicated, with only serotype 1 remaining in just two countries: Afghanistan and Pakistan.\n\nAccording to the WHO's [May 28th, 2024 Weekly Polio Analysis](https://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-polio-analyses-WPV-20240521.pdf), the most recent confirmed case was reported on April 5th, 2024, in Afghanistan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, in the month of June 2024, the World Health Organization (WHO) detects a new confirmed case of poliovirus, according to WHO's [Weekly Polio Analysis](https://polioeradication.org/polio-today/wild-poliovirus-list/) dated July 2nd, 2024, which is expected to be released within a few days following that date.\n\n*This question is part of the Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup. However, if the Weekly Polio Analysis report nominally dated July 2, 2024 is not published before the tournament ends on July 8, 2024, this question will not be scored in the Quarterly Cup. It will still count as part of the 2024 leaderboard.*", "fine_print": "* Only the \"confirmed cases\" portion of resolution source table will be considered. The \"reported from other sources\" portion of the table will not be considered.\n* The resolution criteria will rely on the ‘Date of most recent case’ column in the weekly report’s table, not the report’s nominal publication date or the date it is uploaded to the WHO website.", "post_id": 24801, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717429498.795713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717429498.795713, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.31 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.69, 0.31 ], "means": [ 0.37225176933406273 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.275324996707677, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4995825838808072, 0.5850006390553214, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42011558585976005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.15769724562820026, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1324529992949671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1813837834937049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717429498.824259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717429498.824259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7445141741474515, 0.2554858258525486 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Polio](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polio), an infectious disease that once paralyzed hundreds of thousands of people every year, has seen a dramatic reduction in cases due to global vaccination efforts. 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Two out of the three [serotypes](https://www.who.int/teams/health-product-policy-and-standards/standards-and-specifications/vaccine-standardization/poliomyelitis) of the wild poliovirus have been eradicated, with only serotype 1 remaining in just two countries: Afghanistan and Pakistan.\n\nAccording to the WHO's [May 28th, 2024 Weekly Polio Analysis](https://polioeradication.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/weekly-polio-analyses-WPV-20240521.pdf), the most recent confirmed case was reported on April 5th, 2024, in Afghanistan." }, { "id": 24798, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024", "url_title": "Nvidia Apple Market Cap June 2024", "slug": "nvidia-apple-market-cap-june-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T19:37:57.844841Z", "published_at": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.710050Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24798, "title": "On June 28th, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T19:37:57.844841Z", "open_time": "2024-05-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-03T07:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-03T07:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-27T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T15:36:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on June 28, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 24798, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 24790, "title": "Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?", "short_title": "PLAN Surface Vessel Loss by 2030?", "url_title": "PLAN Surface Vessel Loss by 2030?", "slug": "plan-surface-vessel-loss-by-2030", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:57:58.902538Z", "published_at": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.385774Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24790, "title": "Will the People's Liberation Army Navy lose at least one surface vessel before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:57:58.902538Z", "open_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-07T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-07T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [People's Liberation Army Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy) is a branch of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China (PRC). According to Wikipedia:\n\n>As of 2024, it is the second-largest navy in the world (behind the United States Navy) in terms of total displacement, and the largest navy per number of ships in active service.\n\nThe PLAN consists of large aircraft carriers, frigates, destroyers, and submarines (amongst other types of vessels), and is considered a \"blue-water\" navy in that it is able to project and deploy its force around the world for long and sustained periods of time.\n\nWith substantial territorial disputes amongst almost all of its neighbours in the South China Sea - perhaps most notably with Taiwan and the Philippines - there is a risk that one or more of the PLAN's vessels may be lost at sea; this could be due to warfare, or perhaps even accidental loss.\n\nCNA recently provided a [clarification](https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202405290189.aspx) on a PLAN nuclear-submarine which was allegedly sunk last year:\n\n>The British \"Daily Mail\" reported in October last year that the Chinese Communist Party's Type 093 \"business-class\" nuclear submarine sank in the Yellow Sea in August last year. Cai Mingyan, Director of National Security, said today that the Type 093 commercial-class nuclear submarine was not a serious shipwreck, but there were some accidents, and the location of the submarine was \"all in control\".\n\n------\n\n*Will any PLAN vessel be sunk by 2030?*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a surface ship belonging to the People's Liberation Army Navy is lost prior to 2030 according to a consensus of credible sources.\n\n\"Lost\" will be defined as the sinking of a vessel, whether deliberate (scuttling), accidental, or as a result of warfare.", "fine_print": "- The vessels suitable for a positive resolution are listed on [this](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ships_of_the_People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy) Wikipedia page.\n\n- The vessel must be a \"*surface ship*\" which displaces at least **400** tonnes; \"*auxiliary vessels*\" do not count.\n\n- In the event that a deliberate or accidental loss of a surface ship will be denied by the PLAN, Metaculus Admins will use credible sources and their best judgement to consider whether the known information is sufficient for a positive resolution.\n\n- Note that the definition of \"lost\" in this question requires the ship to be sunk. Therefore, a ship that is decommissioned, scrapped, or abandoned without being sunk will not count.", "post_id": 24790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755462637.887811, "end_time": 1767036035.361019, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755462637.887811, "end_time": 1767036035.361019, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4582062778374615 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551282879037044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23469000981798885, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289272.483343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289272.483343, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47477236412936985, 0.5252276358706301 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [People's Liberation Army Navy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Liberation_Army_Navy) is a branch of the People's Liberation Army of the People's Republic of China (PRC). According to Wikipedia:\n\n>As of 2024, it is the second-largest navy in the world (behind the United States Navy) in terms of total displacement, and the largest navy per number of ships in active service.\n\nThe PLAN consists of large aircraft carriers, frigates, destroyers, and submarines (amongst other types of vessels), and is considered a \"blue-water\" navy in that it is able to project and deploy its force around the world for long and sustained periods of time.\n\nWith substantial territorial disputes amongst almost all of its neighbours in the South China Sea - perhaps most notably with Taiwan and the Philippines - there is a risk that one or more of the PLAN's vessels may be lost at sea; this could be due to warfare, or perhaps even accidental loss.\n\nCNA recently provided a [clarification](https://www.cna.com.tw/news/aipl/202405290189.aspx) on a PLAN nuclear-submarine which was allegedly sunk last year:\n\n>The British \"Daily Mail\" reported in October last year that the Chinese Communist Party's Type 093 \"business-class\" nuclear submarine sank in the Yellow Sea in August last year. Cai Mingyan, Director of National Security, said today that the Type 093 commercial-class nuclear submarine was not a serious shipwreck, but there were some accidents, and the location of the submarine was \"all in control\".\n\n------\n\n*Will any PLAN vessel be sunk by 2030?*" }, { "id": 24789, "title": "Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "short_title": "BP Kaskida Oil Field Well by Jul 2026", "url_title": "BP Kaskida Oil Field Well by Jul 2026", "slug": "bp-kaskida-oil-field-well-by-jul-2026", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:11:21.462968Z", "published_at": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T22:46:20.254934Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24789, "title": "Will British Petroleum (BP) successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "created_at": "2024-05-30T14:11:21.462968Z", "open_time": "2024-06-03T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-06T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-06T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-07-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With *c.* 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However, the Kaskida is an ultra-high pressure (UHP) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) oil field which makes exploiting the development challenging. \n\nUHP / UHT fields require blow-out preventers capable preventing the release of hydrocarbons into the ocean in the event of loss of well control (i.e., a \"blow-out\"). Indeed, UHP fields require highly complex and massive drillships which are both capable of reaching to the seabed extreme depths, as well as dealing with the pressures. Today, this technology exists:\n\n- Oil & Gas equipment provider APL NOV has successfully developed and manufactured a [\"20K\" blow-out preventer (BOP)](https://www.nov.com/about/news/20k-bops-will-revolutionize-subsea-pressure-control) and\n\n- Transocean has constructed an eighth-generation ultra-deepwater [drillship](https://www.deepwater.com//documents/RigSpecs/Deepwater%20Atlas.pdf) equipped with the aforementioned BOP.\n\nAside from technology, BP have a tenuous history in the GoM, perhaps most notably due to the infamous Deepwater Horizon [disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill) which resulted in the largest oil spill in history, and possibly the worst environmental disaster in history. The aftermath of Deepwater Horizon resulted in years of oil production stagnation in the GoM.\n\nJavier Blas, for Bloomberg, summarises the challenges BP face in the development of Kaskida:\n\n>BP, in particular, has a lot to prove. Its CEO may be excited about developing the Kaskida oilfield, but environmentalists, climate activists and left-leaning US lawmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the British oil major drilling a complex and challenging well in the Gulf of Mexico of all places. Everyone deserves a second chance, but US federal regulators must keep a close eye on the future of Kaskida and all other new Paleogene oil fields. BP should focus on convincing everyone that it’s up to the task, rather than simply trumpeting the riches that await beneath the bottom of the sea.\n\n-----------------------\n\nWill BP successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before July 1, 2026, British Petroleum (BP) successfully drills a production well at the Kaskida oil field according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). If this event does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**. \n\n\"*Success*\" is defined as BP having produced at least 1 barrel (bbl) of oil from the field.", "fine_print": "- If BP has its stake in Kaskida reduced to <50% (at time of writing their stake is Kaskida [is](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/investors/upstream-major-projects.html) 100%) the question shall resolve **No**.\n\n- For clarity, Kaskida is located in Keathley Canyon block 292 of the United States sector of the Gulf of Mexico, 250 miles (400 km) south-west of New Orleans, Louisiana (according to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaskida_Oil_Field))", "post_id": 24789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758149169.911117, "end_time": 1759131215.393, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758149169.911117, "end_time": 1759131215.393, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05666690477528982 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2102183212949817, 1.2783559331905674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288800.628428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288800.628428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9339714507569454, 0.06602854924305461 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 24, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Kaskida is an offshore oil field located in the Gulf of Mexico (GoM), first discovered [in 2006](https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/news-and-insights/press-releases/bp-announces-significant-discovery-in-the-deepwater-gulf-of-mexi.html). With *c.* 3 billion barrels of oil it is one of the largest discovered. However, the Kaskida is an ultra-high pressure (UHP) and ultra-high temperature (UHT) oil field which makes exploiting the development challenging. \n\nUHP / UHT fields require blow-out preventers capable preventing the release of hydrocarbons into the ocean in the event of loss of well control (i.e., a \"blow-out\"). Indeed, UHP fields require highly complex and massive drillships which are both capable of reaching to the seabed extreme depths, as well as dealing with the pressures. Today, this technology exists:\n\n- Oil & Gas equipment provider APL NOV has successfully developed and manufactured a [\"20K\" blow-out preventer (BOP)](https://www.nov.com/about/news/20k-bops-will-revolutionize-subsea-pressure-control) and\n\n- Transocean has constructed an eighth-generation ultra-deepwater [drillship](https://www.deepwater.com//documents/RigSpecs/Deepwater%20Atlas.pdf) equipped with the aforementioned BOP.\n\nAside from technology, BP have a tenuous history in the GoM, perhaps most notably due to the infamous Deepwater Horizon [disaster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deepwater_Horizon_oil_spill) which resulted in the largest oil spill in history, and possibly the worst environmental disaster in history. The aftermath of Deepwater Horizon resulted in years of oil production stagnation in the GoM.\n\nJavier Blas, for Bloomberg, summarises the challenges BP face in the development of Kaskida:\n\n>BP, in particular, has a lot to prove. Its CEO may be excited about developing the Kaskida oilfield, but environmentalists, climate activists and left-leaning US lawmakers are unlikely to be enthusiastic about the prospect of the British oil major drilling a complex and challenging well in the Gulf of Mexico of all places. Everyone deserves a second chance, but US federal regulators must keep a close eye on the future of Kaskida and all other new Paleogene oil fields. BP should focus on convincing everyone that it’s up to the task, rather than simply trumpeting the riches that await beneath the bottom of the sea.\n\n-----------------------\n\nWill BP successfully drill a production well at the Kaskida oil field before July 2026?" }, { "id": 24753, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "short_title": "ISS Decision for $57b Musk Pay Package", "url_title": "ISS Decision for $57b Musk Pay Package", "slug": "iss-decision-for-57b-musk-pay-package", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-28T21:37:26.756252Z", "published_at": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.618896Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24753, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the proxy advisor Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) advise Tesla shareholders to vote against Elon Musk's $57 billion package OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk?", "created_at": "2024-05-28T21:37:26.756252Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-31T19:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-31T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-12T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T02:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Institutional Shareholder Services (ISS) releases a statement explicitly advising Tesla shareholders to vote *against* Elon Musk's pay package at the 2024 Tesla shareholder meeting OR the re-election of Kimbal Musk to the Tesla board of directors. Otherwise the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "If no statement is released by ISS prior to the [2024 Tesla Stockholder Meeting](https://www.tesla.com/2024shareholdermeeting) being held, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe 2024 Tesla Stockholder Meeting is currently scheduled for June 13, 2024. If it is postponed beyond June 20, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 24753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717163600.587925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717163600.587925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8242973727682523 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654257108098227, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3008905043046079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3210264034531998, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8184226700359247, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.9640037134733538, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.09423309768492599, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8807699722218997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.870037778779997 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.34594706227123107, "coverage": 0.03598860495381927, "baseline_score": 1.7815195336303478, "spot_peer_score": 27.614849619691892, "peer_archived_score": 0.34594706227123107, "baseline_archived_score": 1.7815195336303478, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.614849619691892 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717116166.461355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717116166.461355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30129988471274605, 0.698700115287254 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Elon Musk is the current CEO of Tesla and owns around 13% of the company. During its founding years in 2003 - 2005, Musk invested heavily into the company, eventually becoming chair of the board of directors and one of the largest shareholders; he subsequently became CEO in October 2008. His success at the company has seen Tesla become the 17th largest company in the world by market cap with its share price soaring since its June 2010 IPO.\n\nAs a result of his immense success as CEO, a $56 billion pay package to Musk was approved by Tesla's board of the directors in 2018. However, Musk has yet to receive this package, as per the [FT](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1):\n\n>Tesla’s board has been lobbying investors to re-ratify the $56bn award given in 2018, which was struck down by a Delaware judge in January due to concerns over its size and the independence of the board. In response, Musk vowed to leave the state and move Tesla’s incorporation to Texas.\n\n>Tesla chair Robyn Denholm has argued that Musk deserves to be paid so much because the company hit ambitious targets for revenue and its stock price. She brushed off criticism she is too close to the CEO as “crap”.\n\nAside from the sheer size of the pay package - the largest of its kind - those who oppose it call into question various decisions made by Musk during his tenure as CEO. In particular, Musk's social media activity has been called into question, and perhaps most notably the:\n\n- Purchase - and subsequent rebrand - of Twitter (now X) for $44 billion which has attracted a lot of negative criticism and has also seen Musk spend a disproportionate amount of time at that company instead of Tesla.\n\n - Purchase of $1.5 billion of Bitcoin in 2021 and allowing the cryptocurrency to be used by customers for purchasing Tesla automobiles. The company promptly stopped accepting the currency - causing the price to plummet - after which Tesla announced they had sold almost all of their Bitcoin holdings at a loss.\n\nDuring significant shareholder votes like this one, influential proxy advisory firms often send out advice to shareholders on what to vote and why. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_firm):\n\n>A proxy firm provides services to shareholders (in most cases an institutional investor of some type) to vote their shares at shareholder meetings of, usually, listed companies.\n\nThe two largest proxy advisory firms are ISS and Glass Lewis. The latter has [advised](https://www.ft.com/content/8d823cef-543a-4d33-afa0-c68f081842d1) shareholders *not* to vote in favour of Musk's package as well as advising shareholders to vote against the re-election of Kimbal Musk - brother of Elon Musk - from the board of directors. The ISS, however, has yet to issue any advice with respect to the June 13 shareholder meeting.\n\n---------------------\n\nSee related question:\n\n[*Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?*](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21972/non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024/)" }, { "id": 24628, "title": "Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?", "short_title": "CCP in 2100", "url_title": "CCP in 2100", "slug": "ccp-in-2100", "author_id": 182936, "author_username": "Arkhos", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-26T21:29:27.313860Z", "published_at": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.188863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-30T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24628, "title": "Will the Communist Party of China continuously control the Chinese government until the year 2100?", "created_at": "2024-05-26T21:29:27.313860Z", "open_time": "2024-06-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-30T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-30T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The **Communist Party of China** has controlled all of Mainland China since 1950, Hong Kong since 1997, and Macau since 1999. The only part of \"China\" it does not control is Taiwan, which is controlled by the Republic of China. As of 2024, it is stable, but anti-party sentiment is growing, especially among the youth.<br /><br />\nMany Western experts warn of a **population crash** that has the potential to nearly halve China's 2024 population by 2100. There is also a risk of a **GDP plateau**, similar to what Japan experienced in the 1990s. These crises, coupled with growing mistrust of the CCP following the **overreactive COVID-19 lockdowns**, have eroded party trust in much of China's populace.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Diplomat: [China’s Economy Might Be Down, But Don’t Expect Regime Collapse](https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/chinas-economy-might-be-down-but-dont-expect-regime-collapse/)\n\nForeign Policy: [When Will China’s Government Collapse?](https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/13/china_communist_party_collapse_downfall/)", "resolution_criteria": "If, **continuously, from now until December 31, 2099**, the Communist Party of China, or its official successor party, fulfills all of the below criteria:\n\n- The CCP, its successor party, or a *de facto* affiliated independent (akin to Vladimir Putin with the United Russia party) holds the position of **highest executive office**, such as head of state or equivalent (this does not include purely ceremonial offices). The majority of credible news outlets must report them as the **head of state, head of government, or any other equivalent highest-ranking executive position** of China.\n- The party controls a **supermajority (66%+)** of the National People's Congress, or whatever legislatures succeed it (this includes minor parties and independents in coalition with the CCP). If China develops a multicameral legislature by 2100, the CCP or its successor party must control a **supermajority in all legislatures**.\n\nThen the question resolves YES.\n\nIf, at any point between now and 2100, any of the following occur:<br />\n\n- The CCP or its successor party fails to fulfill the \"YES\" criteria (brief vacancies or dissolutions do not count if they are resolved within 1 month).\n- \"China\", as defined by the below definition, **ceases to exist**.\n\nThen the question resolves NO.<br />\n\nNote that even if China introduces democratic reforms, but none of the NO criteria are met by 2100, the question still resolves YES.\n\n\"China\" is defined as any state that controls more than **80% of the population** that lives in sum of all territory that, as of 2024, is *de facto* controlled by either the People's Republic of China (including Hong Kong and Macau) or the Republic of China (commonly known as Taiwan).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 24628, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756584374.463784, "end_time": 1955759114.285691, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756584374.463784, "end_time": 1955759114.285691, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.29659545612061256 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.43289785514522633, 0.3861804538733092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 1.2115158975904898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2490738950226623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.142256618193702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6548757004807669, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9224887762842761, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290163.28065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290163.28065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.84415401183328, 0.15584598816672002 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The **Communist Party of China** has controlled all of Mainland China since 1950, Hong Kong since 1997, and Macau since 1999. The only part of \"China\" it does not control is Taiwan, which is controlled by the Republic of China. As of 2024, it is stable, but anti-party sentiment is growing, especially among the youth.<br /><br />\nMany Western experts warn of a **population crash** that has the potential to nearly halve China's 2024 population by 2100. There is also a risk of a **GDP plateau**, similar to what Japan experienced in the 1990s. These crises, coupled with growing mistrust of the CCP following the **overreactive COVID-19 lockdowns**, have eroded party trust in much of China's populace.\n\nSee Also\n\nThe Diplomat: [China’s Economy Might Be Down, But Don’t Expect Regime Collapse](https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/chinas-economy-might-be-down-but-dont-expect-regime-collapse/)\n\nForeign Policy: [When Will China’s Government Collapse?](https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/03/13/china_communist_party_collapse_downfall/)" }, { "id": 24622, "title": "Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?", "short_title": "Rishi Sunak to not win seat in 2024 GE?", "url_title": "Rishi Sunak to not win seat in 2024 GE?", "slug": "rishi-sunak-to-not-win-seat-in-2024-ge", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-25T22:12:06.666461Z", "published_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.866861Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 51, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24622, "title": "Will Rishi Sunak fail to be elected in the 2024 UK General Election?", "created_at": "2024-05-25T22:12:06.666461Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-04T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector) since 2015.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, [Sunak won his seat](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector#Elections_in_the_2010s) with 63.6% of the vote; the nearest competitor was the Labour Party candidate on 16.4% of the vote. \n\nSince 2019 the Conservative Party, in power since 2010, has seen a significant decline in its support according to [opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector#Graphical_summary); and as of late May 2024, it trails the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points. \n\n[Sunak's personal approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) has been in negative territory for nearly his entire tenure as Prime Minister, and is [among the worst for any British Conservative or Labour leader](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader) in Ipsos data going back to 1978.\n\nIn May 2024 [Sunak called a snap general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69050450), to be held on July 4.\n\nSunak is expected to contest the constituency of [Richmond and Northallerton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_and_Northallerton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in the July 4 election, which was created following the [2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies?useskin=vector).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if for any reason Rishi Sunak fails to be elected as a Member of Parliament in the July 4 2024 UK general election.\n\nIf Sunak is elected as a Member of Parliament for any constituency in the July 4 2024 UK general election, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nResolution should cite [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, or an official announcement from the returning officer of the constituency in which Sunak is a candidate (if he is a candidate in any constituency).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 24622, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720081032.049797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.252 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720081032.049797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.252 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.748, 0.252 ], "means": [ 0.26568244911043976 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.08303507941585661, 0.07347534265239528, 0.0, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 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"spot_peer_score": 40.89903995833244, "peer_archived_score": 30.335920078117013, "baseline_archived_score": 71.37716926498801, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.89903995833244 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720081032.092625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720081032.092625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9079932567541854, 0.09200674324581459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 211, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Rishi Sunak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rishi_Sunak?useskin=vector), born 12 May 1980, is a British politician who has served as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom and Leader of the Conservative Party since 2022. Sunak has been Member of Parliament for [Richmond (Yorks)](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector) since 2015.\n\nIn the most recent general election in 2019, [Sunak won his seat](https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Richmond_(Yorks)_(UK_Parliament_constituency)&useskin=vector#Elections_in_the_2010s) with 63.6% of the vote; the nearest competitor was the Labour Party candidate on 16.4% of the vote. \n\nSince 2019 the Conservative Party, in power since 2010, has seen a significant decline in its support according to [opinion polling](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector#Graphical_summary); and as of late May 2024, it trails the opposition Labour Party by around 20 points. \n\n[Sunak's personal approval rating](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leadership_approval_opinion_polling_for_the_2024_United_Kingdom_general_election?useskin=vector) has been in negative territory for nearly his entire tenure as Prime Minister, and is [among the worst for any British Conservative or Labour leader](https://www.ipsos.com/en-uk/rishi-sunaks-satisfaction-falls-equal-worst-ever-ipsos-rating-conservative-or-labour-leader) in Ipsos data going back to 1978.\n\nIn May 2024 [Sunak called a snap general election](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69050450), to be held on July 4.\n\nSunak is expected to contest the constituency of [Richmond and Northallerton](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richmond_and_Northallerton_(UK_Parliament_constituency)?useskin=vector) in the July 4 election, which was created following the [2023 Periodic Review of Westminster constituencies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Periodic_Review_of_Westminster_constituencies?useskin=vector)." }, { "id": 24620, "title": "Will China officially allow accessing and editing Wikipedia before January 1, 2030?", "short_title": "China allows editing Wikipedia by 2030", "url_title": "China allows editing Wikipedia by 2030", "slug": "china-allows-editing-wikipedia-by-2030", "author_id": 174826, "author_username": "chipm", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-25T09:45:27.860238Z", "published_at": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.965296Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24620, "title": "Will China officially allow accessing and editing Wikipedia before January 1, 2030?", "created_at": "2024-05-25T09:45:27.860238Z", "open_time": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-01T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-30T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2015, [China blocked the Chinese Wikipedia](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/we-had-our-arguments-but_b_7610130). In 2019, the [block was extended to all Wikipedia editions](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/15/china-bans-wikipedia-all-languages/).\n\nFor further background and context please see:\n\n[Wikipedia: Wikimedia censorship in mainland China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_censorship_in_mainland_China)\n\n[Slate 2019: Why China Blocked Wikipedia in All Languages | \nHint: There’s a big anniversary coming up.](https://slate.com/technology/2019/05/wikipedia-china-block-censorship-tiananmen-square.html)\n\n[ZME Science: Why China (and other countries) are banning Wikipedia](https://www.zmescience.com/science/why-china-blocked-wikipedia-0423523/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve positively if, before January 1 2030, the People's Republic of China implements any officially sanctioned method to access and edit at least one Wikipedia edition. The access method might range from full unrestricted access open to everyone to restricted approaches such as a widely available official proxy.", "fine_print": "* Access to Wikipedia must include the possibility of editing. An official read-only mirror will not resolve the question positively.\n* An access method that restricts access to a subset of Wikipedia pages will still qualify if editing is available.\n* Lax enforcement of VPN bans will not resolve this question positively. Access to Wikipedia must be possible under an official policy.\n* Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macau are excluded from the resolution criteria.\n* The official access policy must potentially cover, at least, 50% of China's population. It would not resolve positively if it is implemented on a smaller territorial scale such as a single Special Economic Zone, or narrow demographics such as Government officials.\n* An access method that requires registration with the Government (e.g. a Government-run Wikipedia proxy) will qualify to resolve this question positively if all registrations are approved by default, or credible sources report that the majority of applications are approved. The question shall be resolved as ambiguous if this cannot be determined.\n* An access method that is run by a private company will still qualify if it has a Government license or credible sources report that the program runs in compliance with Chinese regulations.\n* If, by 2030, current territory of mainland China breaks up, the question will apply to the territory that credible sources acknowledge as the successor of the People's Republic of China. If that cannot be determined unambiguously, the question will be annulled.\n* Unblocking Wikipedia in other language versions than Chinese will count.", "post_id": 24620, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755358937.734458, "end_time": 1759605474.769222, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755358937.734458, "end_time": 1759605474.769222, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.10426629659818461 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1741106786487336, 0.0, 0.8030484213491771, 1.4855117761228904, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289846.95176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289846.95176, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9790747074107407, 0.020925292589259292 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2015, [China blocked the Chinese Wikipedia](https://www.huffpost.com/entry/we-had-our-arguments-but_b_7610130). In 2019, the [block was extended to all Wikipedia editions](https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/05/15/china-bans-wikipedia-all-languages/).\n\nFor further background and context please see:\n\n[Wikipedia: Wikimedia censorship in mainland China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wikimedia_censorship_in_mainland_China)\n\n[Slate 2019: Why China Blocked Wikipedia in All Languages | \nHint: There’s a big anniversary coming up.](https://slate.com/technology/2019/05/wikipedia-china-block-censorship-tiananmen-square.html)\n\n[ZME Science: Why China (and other countries) are banning Wikipedia](https://www.zmescience.com/science/why-china-blocked-wikipedia-0423523/)" }, { "id": 24330, "title": "Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?", "short_title": "Driverless cars in Las Vegas in 2029", "url_title": "Driverless cars in Las Vegas in 2029", "slug": "driverless-cars-in-las-vegas-in-2029", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-24T04:48:53.364504Z", "published_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T23:15:51.819171Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-05-28T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-05-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24330, "title": "Long bet rerun: will driverless cars be commercially available in Las Vegas, NV by May 28, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-05-24T04:48:53.364504Z", "open_time": "2024-05-30T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-06-02T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-05-29T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-05-28T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-05-28T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [original Long Bet](https://longbets.org/712/) should resolve negatively based on the stated resolution criteria, but this question is rerun of it where the deadline is extended 5 years so that it resolves on the US Memorial Day of 2029. Resolution criteria will be same as the original question, but with a few things clarified that concerns the affordability and accessibility of the system.\n\nMetaculus [has a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-in-las-vegas-by-2024/) based on the original long bet.\n\nThe author of this question assesses that the development of self-driving cars encountered numerous difficulties because the current state-of-the-art in artificial intelligence is simply incapable negotiating the complex social and spatial environment without remote assistance, the exorbitant hardware involved such as high-end computers and lidar arrays, and the billions of miles required to validate such a system as being safer than the median human driver. Perhaps there would be some breakthrough in the next five years that would render this technology more scalable and accessible to the general public in five years so that a tourist in Las Vegas will have access to the technology by Memorial Day 2029. So far (as of Memorial Day 2024), Waymo has a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, where the former is open to the general public without a waitlist.", "resolution_criteria": "(Resolution Criteria largely copied-and-pasted from the original Long Bet terms.)\n\nThis question resolves positively if by Memorial Day 2029, there is a commercially available autonomous vehicle that is able to pick someone up at a Las Vegas strip hotel and take them to a destination off-strip in downtown Las Vegas, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nQuestion will resolve positively early if before the resolution, there is a vehicle or a service that fulfills the resolution criteria.\n\nThere are a few key clauses: \n\n1. the vehicle must be FULLY autonomous and never require human control other than to enter a pickup and destination address. Specifically, the passenger could be blindfolded or otherwise incapacitated at the time of pickup and the vehicle must still be able to function, the occupants will not ever be required to take control. \n2. the vehicle must be commercially available- no prototypes or restricted-access pilot projects \n3. the vehicle or service must be \"affordable\" as elucidated in the fine-print\n4. the operational area of the vehicle must be broad enough to encompass both the Las Vegas strip (a chaotic and high-risk environment challenging for autonomous vehicles to navigate), and downtown Las Vegas (a more risk-averse and potentially hostile regulatory climate due to concerns of residents).\n5. In certain circumstances a remote pilot may be engaged, but the entire testing of the bet cannot be one of these exceptions.", "fine_print": "\"Commercially availability\" means that, for a robotaxi service, there are no waitlists that require the user to wait for more than one week and no requirement of a non-disclosure agreement. Any tourist should be able to use the service.\n\nFor a consumer vehicle, that anyone with enough money can purchase the vehicle and subscription service.\n\n\"Affordability\" means that for the first robotaxi ride that satisfies the resolution criteria, the entire cost of ride has to cost less than $65 (nominal). This can include a fee to get on a short waitlist in order to have the privilege of using the service during the time of resolution. \n\nFor a consumer vehicle, the vehicle has to cost no more than $100,000 (nominal) and have an autonomous software subscription cost of no greater than $250 a month, although that can require the customer to pay for a subscription for one whole year.\n\nThe autonomous service may occasionally use a remote pilot, but it should not be the expectation that there would be remote intervention during a trip that satisfies the resolution. A ratio of one remote operator for every five autonomous vehicles is satisfactory. There would probably not be definitive evidence to determine the exact ratio, but the question author expects that the requirement of \"affordability\" and \"commercial availability\" to address this, since a \"commercially available\" and \"affordable\" service would presumably attract many customers, that paying the wages for many remote operators would be financially unsustainable for an \"affordable\" service. Of course, the service can be temporarily provided at a loss to circumvent that. However, if the \"affordability\" and \"commercial availability\" requirements are satisfied, then the question can resolve negatively only if there is a \"preponderance of evidence\" gleaned from credible sources that there is extensive use of remote operators for the service. This evidence can be the testimony of engineers, remote operators, or present or former executives to a news outlet stating that that the number of remote operators per operational vehicle is greater than 0.20.\n\n\"By Memorial Day 2029\" means before Tuesday May 29, 2029.", "post_id": 24330, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758150941.235242, "end_time": 1759570735.776089, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8657422662 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758150941.235242, "end_time": 1759570735.776089, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.8657422662 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13425773379999995, 0.8657422662 ], "means": [ 0.7286428426510997 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0900005682787448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 1.2479696983050694, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 2.2049897965651395, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288695.450053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288695.450053, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.25524938588883417, 0.7447506141111658 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [original Long Bet](https://longbets.org/712/) should resolve negatively based on the stated resolution criteria, but this question is rerun of it where the deadline is extended 5 years so that it resolves on the US Memorial Day of 2029. Resolution criteria will be same as the original question, but with a few things clarified that concerns the affordability and accessibility of the system.\n\nMetaculus [has a question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5715/driverless-cars-in-las-vegas-by-2024/) based on the original long bet.\n\nThe author of this question assesses that the development of self-driving cars encountered numerous difficulties because the current state-of-the-art in artificial intelligence is simply incapable negotiating the complex social and spatial environment without remote assistance, the exorbitant hardware involved such as high-end computers and lidar arrays, and the billions of miles required to validate such a system as being safer than the median human driver. Perhaps there would be some breakthrough in the next five years that would render this technology more scalable and accessible to the general public in five years so that a tourist in Las Vegas will have access to the technology by Memorial Day 2029. So far (as of Memorial Day 2024), Waymo has a limited robotaxi service in Phoenix, Arizona and San Francisco, California, where the former is open to the general public without a waitlist." }, { "id": 24329, "title": "Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "short_title": "May-June 2024_Taiwan-China_Conflict Deaths", "url_title": "May-June 2024_Taiwan-China_Conflict Deaths", "slug": "may-june-2024_taiwan-china_conflict-deaths", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-23T23:38:53.443930Z", "published_at": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.567952Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 109, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24329, "title": "Before June 6, 2024, will there be an armed forces conflict death between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-23T23:38:53.443930Z", "open_time": "2024-05-24T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-25T20:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-25T20:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-07T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-06T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has escalated military tensions with Taiwan, launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. \n\nInitial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before June 6th, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China or Taiwan as a result of armed conflict between the two parties.", "fine_print": "* Auxilary forces under the control of either government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and Taiwan. 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