Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2640
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2620", "results": [ { "id": 24321, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "2024 Atlantic Ocean Record Temperature", "url_title": "2024 Atlantic Ocean Record Temperature", "slug": "2024-atlantic-ocean-record-temperature", "author_id": 100333, "author_username": "Wineclaw", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-23T12:24:52.510100Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.051654Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T23:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "๐", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "๐ฑ", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 24321, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-23T12:24:52.510100Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-07T23:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-07T23:02:59.041033Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2ฯ level of the 1982-2011 mean.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [\"Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic\" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)โaccessible when choosing \"North Atlantic\" from the \"Area Selection\" dropdown menu at the linkโshows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C set on August 31, 2023, for any day before October 1, 2024. The question will resolve when the data for September 30 is first available on the chart and accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "ClimateReanalyzer's chart runs on a 1-to-2 day lag. Secondly, all data is preliminary for two weeks. For the sake of this question, we are using the preliminary data for the resolution.", "post_id": 24321, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726406283.961158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726406283.961158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 108, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.011149525473255956 ], "histogram": [ [ 12.76993602322745, 5.359646834426144, 0.4294971480926094, 0.005025223583386938, 0.01044791386579032, 0.33004834436101843, 0.0, 0.1654401596874866, 0.031211606990649093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012845637017849833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07091040125726912, 0.0, 0.00022660438791516336, 0.0, 0.0026847467106792403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001704260857512597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001893744449258325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008454174279093387, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03369842828334639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00043222964109477943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002572766628741791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005188593462568196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05828150874376415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007893148562410263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.28401982643766, "peer_score": 18.366796472128662, "coverage": 0.9999940564789113, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999940564789113, "spot_peer_score": 15.736526340685879, "baseline_archived_score": 67.28401982643766, "peer_archived_score": 18.366796472128662, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 15.736526340685879 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726406284.014984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726406284.014984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 823, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2ฯ level of the 1982-2011 mean." }, { "id": 24302, "title": "Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "50 Kenyan Police in Haiti Before June 2024?", "url_title": "50 Kenyan Police in Haiti Before June 2024?", "slug": "50-kenyan-police-in-haiti-before-june-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-22T19:01:53.999182Z", "published_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.485102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-03T16:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-03T16:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24302, "title": "Will at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel arrive in Haiti before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-22T19:01:53.999182Z", "open_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-24T10:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-24T10:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-03T16:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-03T16:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-03T16:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works since 2023. Forces from Kenya's [General Service Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Service_Unit_(Kenya)) (GSU), a branch of the [Kenya Police Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Police) are [planned to deploy to Haiti](https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/green-light-for-kenyan-police-boots-on-the-ground-in-haiti/) as part of this effort. However, the deployment of the Kenyan police has faced several setbacks, including [legal challenges](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-lawyers-ask-court-hold-government-contempt-planned-police-deployment-2024-05-17/) and [political opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/28/kenya-plan-deploy-police-haiti) in Kenya.\n\nOn May 22, 2024, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/americas/kenya-haiti-delegation-intl-latam/index.html) that Kenyan officials had arrived in Haiti to assess readiness to receive the Kenyan police forces, who are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month. However, [recent reporting has also suggested the potential for additional delays](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/kenya-police-deployment-haiti-faces-130709387.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after May 22, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that at least 50 Kenyan military or police personnel have arrived in Haiti.", "fine_print": "* In the event that credible sources report that Kenyan police have arrived in Haiti but a number is not given and there is no indication as to the size of the deployment (such as \"hundreds\", \"over 100\", or \"approximately 30\") the question will be **annulled**.\n* If reporting is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may use its judgment to resolve the question or resolve the question as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 24302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717182339.803643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717182339.803643, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0071515740248481105 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.857736003400078, 3.7205064868705824, 0.0, 0.10860410592794534, 0.30999457281726844, 0.08916026500184708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012080067640697419, 0.0, 0.22310367527874267, 0.0, 0.003399429418515302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016348593756712248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00562727195348949, 0.0, 0.0044440085329729906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002473836920010813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.744669053310926, "coverage": 0.9999908237369636, "baseline_score": 86.94220441054038, "spot_peer_score": 6.395803306909399, "peer_archived_score": 6.744669053310926, "baseline_archived_score": 86.94220441054038, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.395803306909399 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717182339.84295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717182339.84295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Violence and unrest have been on the rise in Haiti, resulting in former Haitian Prime Minister Ariel Henry being blocked from returning to his country and eventually resigning in March of 2023. A [multinational mission](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/05/1149831) to provide security assistance has been in the works since 2023. Forces from Kenya's [General Service Unit](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Service_Unit_(Kenya)) (GSU), a branch of the [Kenya Police Service](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kenya_Police) are [planned to deploy to Haiti](https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/green-light-for-kenyan-police-boots-on-the-ground-in-haiti/) as part of this effort. However, the deployment of the Kenyan police has faced several setbacks, including [legal challenges](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/kenyan-lawyers-ask-court-hold-government-contempt-planned-police-deployment-2024-05-17/) and [political opposition](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/mar/28/kenya-plan-deploy-police-haiti) in Kenya.\n\nOn May 22, 2024, it was [reported](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/21/americas/kenya-haiti-delegation-intl-latam/index.html) that Kenyan officials had arrived in Haiti to assess readiness to receive the Kenyan police forces, who are scheduled to arrive by the end of the month. However, [recent reporting has also suggested the potential for additional delays](https://ca.news.yahoo.com/kenya-police-deployment-haiti-faces-130709387.html)." }, { "id": 24194, "title": "Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?", "short_title": "House: will the GOP have the most votes?", "url_title": "House: will the GOP have the most votes?", "slug": "house-will-the-gop-have-the-most-votes", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-20T17:25:56.056779Z", "published_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.930068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T17:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24194, "title": "Will Republicans win the most votes in the 2024 elections for the House of Representatives?", "created_at": "2024-05-20T17:25:56.056779Z", "open_time": "2024-05-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-17T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-18T17:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-18T17:09:25.367936Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-03T03:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[[Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections)]\n\nAll 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the delegation has two members or more, States are divided into single-member districts. Most states elect their representatives by the plurality method, where voters cast a vote for one candidate and the one with the highest number of votes wins.\n\nThe U.S. has a strong two-party system, with the Republicans (GOP) and Democrats taking center stage in the country's political life and other parties having little influence.\n\nOf the past 10 House elections, in 3 of them the party winning the popular vote across all districts did not win the majority of House seats:\n\n| Election | Popular vote won by GOP | Seats won by GOP (out of 435) |\n|----------|-------------------------|------------------------|\n| 2022 | 50.6% | 222 |\n| 2020 | 47.2% | 213 |\n| 2018 | 44.8% | 199 |\n| 2016 | 49.1%* | 241* |\n| 2014 | 51.2% | 247 |\n| 2012 | 47.7%* | 234* |\n| 2010 | 51.7% | 242 |\n| 2008 | 42.6% | 178 |\n| 2006 | 44.3% | 202 |\n| 2004 | 49.4%* | 232* |\n\n*Election in which the popular vote winner did not achieve a House majority.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if the total vote for GOP candidates for the House of Representatives in the 2024 US elections is the highest of any party, and NO otherwise. Credible sources can be used if the outcome is clear, but in case of doubts and disputes the ultimate official source is the [U.S. House of Representatives](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/) website.", "fine_print": "Some states have somewhat different election methods, like jungle primaries, two-round runoffs and instant runoff by ranked choice ballot. To make resolution simple, this question just follows the methods used by the House to aggregate nationwide votes; however, since the last day of voting is potentially December 3 due to runoffs in Georgia, that is when the question closes.\n\nIf the GOP is tied for the most votes, this question resolves as NO.", "post_id": 24194, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732463399.007891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732463399.007891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9799904825227074 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.028326150796870744, 0.051118274222999596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0773927070098371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1011216878911307, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 10.155565619240082 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -7.036233893307482, "peer_score": 7.145629865560039, "coverage": 0.9994573405660185, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994573405660185, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": -7.036233893307482, "peer_archived_score": 7.145629865560039, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289553.633874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289553.633874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3566576710373639, 0.6433423289626361 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[[Wikipedia article](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections)]\n\nAll 50 U.S. States will vote on November 5, 2024 to elect the 435 members of the House of Representatives for the 119th Congress; seats are allocated to States in proportion to population, but always at least one. If the delegation has two members or more, States are divided into single-member districts. Most states elect their representatives by the plurality method, where voters cast a vote for one candidate and the one with the highest number of votes wins.\n\nThe U.S. has a strong two-party system, with the Republicans (GOP) and Democrats taking center stage in the country's political life and other parties having little influence.\n\nOf the past 10 House elections, in 3 of them the party winning the popular vote across all districts did not win the majority of House seats:\n\n| Election | Popular vote won by GOP | Seats won by GOP (out of 435) |\n|----------|-------------------------|------------------------|\n| 2022 | 50.6% | 222 |\n| 2020 | 47.2% | 213 |\n| 2018 | 44.8% | 199 |\n| 2016 | 49.1%* | 241* |\n| 2014 | 51.2% | 247 |\n| 2012 | 47.7%* | 234* |\n| 2010 | 51.7% | 242 |\n| 2008 | 42.6% | 178 |\n| 2006 | 44.3% | 202 |\n| 2004 | 49.4%* | 232* |\n\n*Election in which the popular vote winner did not achieve a House majority." }, { "id": 24037, "title": "Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?", "short_title": "Int'l Seabed Auth. July Election Outcome", "url_title": "Int'l Seabed Auth. July Election Outcome", "slug": "intl-seabed-auth-july-election-outcome", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-19T12:59:11.290866Z", "published_at": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.511515Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24037, "title": "Will the International Seabed Authority Secretary-General Michael Lodge be re-elected for a third term in the July elections?", "created_at": "2024-05-19T12:59:11.290866Z", "open_time": "2024-05-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-29T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-02T14:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-01T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:\n\n>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.\n\nIt describes itself as:\n\n>[an] organization through which States Parties to UNCLOS organize and control all mineral-resources-related activities in the Area for the benefit of humankind as a whole.\n\nThis means the ISA controls regulations on [Deep Sea Mining (DSM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea_mining) which has slowly become a massively contentious issue between nations, NGOs, and companies due to the fact that, whilst DSM will potentially allow mining companies to access vast amount of minerals critical in the manufacturing of renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and batteries, those who oppose DSM see it resulting in long-term harm to ecosystems already at risk due to environmental deviations arising from global warming. \n\nThe Secretary-General incumbent is the British national Michael Lodge who is seeking his third term in the upcoming July elections. Tood Woody, via Bloomberg describes his history at the ISA:\n\n>Lodgeโs candidacy emerged Sunday in a diplomatic note from ISA member state Kiribati, a small South Pacific island nation that announced it would sponsor Lodgeโs nomination. Candidates for secretary-general are usually sponsored by their country of citizenship: The UK sponsored Lodgeโs first term as secretary-general (though his election to a second term, which happened under a โsilent procedureโ during the Covid-19 pandemic, is less clear). Carvalho, an official with UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, was likewise put forth by Brazilโs delegate in March.\n\nNotably, the UK was a signatory of a [memorandum](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-supports-moratorium-on-deep-sea-mining-to-protect-ocean-and-marine-ecosystems) against DSM. However, as noted in the above article, Lodge has found support of island nations - such as Kiribati - who stand to benefit immensely from DSM.\n\nOne DSM company - [The Metals Company (TMC)](https://metals.co) - has been a major supporter of DSM and has carried out extensive environmental studies supporting its position of allowing the practice. TMC has also carried out [pilot studies](https://metals.co/nori/) in the Clarion-Clipper Zone (CCZ) with Allseas' dedicated Deep Sea Mining Vessel \"*Hidden Gem*\" which were successful.\n\nSee also Southern Fried Science: [International Seabed Authority gears up for a leadership challenge at the July meeting.](https://www.southernfriedscience.com/international-seabed-authority-gears-up-for-a-leadership-challenge-at-the-july-meeting/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the International Seabed Authority (ISA) and/or [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the incumbent Secretary-General Michael Lodge has been elected for a third term in the July elections. Otherwise it will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "- If Lodge does not stand in the July elections, for any reason, the question will resolve **No**.\n\n- If the elections are moved or postponed until after July, the reorganised election result will be used to resolve the question.", "post_id": 24037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719623114.105868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719623114.105868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.74 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.26, 0.74 ], "means": [ 0.5676070905357959 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34012196105922055, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.8526534612912595, "coverage": 0.9971417873215048, "baseline_score": -124.13927496930876, "spot_peer_score": -30.038693021446512, "peer_archived_score": -0.8526534612912595, "baseline_archived_score": -124.13927496930876, "spot_peer_archived_score": -30.038693021446512 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1719820295.054557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1719820295.054557, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8829007151520849, 0.11709928484791515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [International Seabed Authority (ISA)](https://www.isa.org.jm/about-isa/) describes itself as:\n\n>an autonomous international organization established under the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the 1994 Agreement relating to the Implementation of Part XI of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.\n\nIt describes itself as:\n\n>[an] organization through which States Parties to UNCLOS organize and control all mineral-resources-related activities in the Area for the benefit of humankind as a whole.\n\nThis means the ISA controls regulations on [Deep Sea Mining (DSM)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_sea_mining) which has slowly become a massively contentious issue between nations, NGOs, and companies due to the fact that, whilst DSM will potentially allow mining companies to access vast amount of minerals critical in the manufacturing of renewable energy systems, electric vehicles, and batteries, those who oppose DSM see it resulting in long-term harm to ecosystems already at risk due to environmental deviations arising from global warming. \n\nThe Secretary-General incumbent is the British national Michael Lodge who is seeking his third term in the upcoming July elections. Tood Woody, via Bloomberg describes his history at the ISA:\n\n>Lodgeโs candidacy emerged Sunday in a diplomatic note from ISA member state Kiribati, a small South Pacific island nation that announced it would sponsor Lodgeโs nomination. Candidates for secretary-general are usually sponsored by their country of citizenship: The UK sponsored Lodgeโs first term as secretary-general (though his election to a second term, which happened under a โsilent procedureโ during the Covid-19 pandemic, is less clear). Carvalho, an official with UN Environment Programme in Nairobi, was likewise put forth by Brazilโs delegate in March.\n\nNotably, the UK was a signatory of a [memorandum](https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-supports-moratorium-on-deep-sea-mining-to-protect-ocean-and-marine-ecosystems) against DSM. However, as noted in the above article, Lodge has found support of island nations - such as Kiribati - who stand to benefit immensely from DSM.\n\nOne DSM company - [The Metals Company (TMC)](https://metals.co) - has been a major supporter of DSM and has carried out extensive environmental studies supporting its position of allowing the practice. TMC has also carried out [pilot studies](https://metals.co/nori/) in the Clarion-Clipper Zone (CCZ) with Allseas' dedicated Deep Sea Mining Vessel \"*Hidden Gem*\" which were successful.\n\nSee also Southern Fried Science: [International Seabed Authority gears up for a leadership challenge at the July meeting.](https://www.southernfriedscience.com/international-seabed-authority-gears-up-for-a-leadership-challenge-at-the-july-meeting/)" }, { "id": 24034, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before August 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Philippines Expels Chinese Diplomats 2024?", "url_title": "Philippines Expels Chinese Diplomats 2024?", "slug": "philippines-expels-chinese-diplomats-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 115975, "username": "johnnycaffeine" } ], "created_at": "2024-05-18T18:53:41.497830Z", "published_at": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.894521Z", 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"open_time": "2024-05-18T22:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-21T22:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-21T22:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before August 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions): \n\n- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC). \n\n- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\n- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\n- The PRC recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the Philippines. \n\nIf there are no such reports before that date, then this resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "โDiplomat\" is defined using the LSData definition of [diplomatic agent](https://www.lsd.law/define/diplomatic-agent): \"...a person who represents their country in another country. They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargรฉ d'affaires. 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agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)." }, { "id": 24033, "title": "Will a journalist or an opposition politician be charged in connection with the assassination attempt on Slovak PM Robert Fico, before June 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Slovak PM assasination attempt", "url_title": "Slovak PM assasination attempt", "slug": "slovak-pm-assasination-attempt", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-18T15:04:51.413237Z", "published_at": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.324229Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-20T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 84, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 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"2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-15T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-14T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlovรก. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, ฤฝuboลก Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kaliลรกk, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana ฤaputovรก and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovenskรญ Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will be resolved as **YES** if [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) Slovak media outlets or international news organizations report that a Slovak journalist or opposition politician has been criminally charged in connection with the assassination attempt.\n\nAlternatively, the resolution will also be **YES** if relevant Slovak institutions (e.g., the public prosecutor's office, courts, police, and similar authorities) issue a statement to that effect.\n\nOtherwise, the question will be resolved as **NO**.", "fine_print": "_In connection with the assassination attempt_ is intentionally a broad description, which in this context represents for example:\n\n- Commentary on the event or its aftermath.\n- Direct or indirect involvement.\n- Incitement of violence prior to or after the assassination attempt.\n\nThe charge must be related to the assassination attempt on Fico in order to count.\n\nOnly criminal charges announced before June 15, 2024, will count. Therefore any changes that are under seal or not publicly known before that date will not count.\n\n\"Journalist\" is defined using the Wikipedia [definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Journalist): \"a person who gathers information in the form of text, audio or pictures, processes it into a newsworthy form and disseminates it to the public.\"\n\n\"Opposition politician\" is defined as anyone with a position in a Slovak political party that is not part of the ruling government of Slovakia, in other words not part of the ruling coalition of [Smer-SD](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direction_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy), [Hlas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Voice_%E2%80%93_Social_Democracy), and [SNS](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slovak_National_Party).", "post_id": 24033, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718377108.870694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718377108.870694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 83, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.010856782781562284 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.1756415832196305, 7.623812733490192, 0.2001330686054349, 0.9028684428446425, 0.37974245119115096, 0.38018642278970594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022195882369684906, 0.0, 0.048444519489087505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010339533689454465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018696454698634184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012799377483163744, 0.0, 0.006033466371212897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00030038860271878445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001557486043652286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004545421011829164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 9.198304464572697, "coverage": 0.9998955207143734, "baseline_score": 92.64423090403012, "spot_peer_score": 5.177031683251319, "peer_archived_score": 9.198304464572697, "baseline_archived_score": 92.64423090403012, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.177031683251319 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718377108.921303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718377108.921303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 270, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 15th, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico (SMER-SD party) was targeted in an [assassination attempt](https://apnews.com/article/slovakia-prime-minister-shooting-fico-23faba11c0f371ef0f69a34861337ae0) after leaving a governmental meeting in the town of Handlovรก. The assailant, Juraj Cintula, managed to fire at least five bullets from very close proximity before being subdued. Prime Minister Fico was urgently taken to the hospital; his [condition](https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/slovakia-prime-minister-robert-fico-shot/?intcid=CNR-02-0623) remains serious but stable.\n\nJust a few hours after the attack, the Deputy Chairman of the Slovak Parliament, ฤฝuboลก Blaho (SMER-SD party), in an emotional speech, blamed the [\"liberal media\"](https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/nejvetsi-radikalove-vladni-koalice-obvinili-z-atentatu-na-fica-media-a-opozici_2405151955_jgr) and the political opposition for inciting the shooter. Concurrently, Andrej Danko, leader of the SNS party, which is a member of the ruling coalition, echoed this sentiment.\n\nRobert Kaliลรกk, the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defence, has been the most prominent figure in the aftermath, with his statements also targeting the media and political opposition.\n\nOutgoing Slovak President Zuzana ฤaputovรก and newly elected President Peter Pellegrini have called for societal calm and are orchestrating a [meeting](https://www.ceskenoviny.cz/zpravy/caputova-a-pellegrini-vyzvali-k-opusteni-bludneho-kruhu-nenavisti/2519316) with all major political entities in Slovakia, scheduled for May 21. However, so far, all governmental parties have either not responded or declined the invitation.\n\nTo date, apart from the shooter, only one individual has been charged in connection with the assassination attempt, and it was for spreading online hate. Paradoxically, despite the framing by the governmental politicians, the shooter was no fan of the liberal opposition and reportedly also a member of the recently disbanded [\"Slovenskรญ Branci\"](https://www.euronews.com/2024/05/15/what-is-known-about-suspect-allegedly-involved-in-shooting-of-robert-fico) paramilitary group, which had ties to Russia." }, { "id": 24020, "title": "Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?", "short_title": "Trump Biden Debate Handshake", "url_title": "Trump Biden Debate Handshake", "slug": "trump-biden-debate-handshake", "author_id": 175799, "author_username": "dingers", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-17T02:24:01.423813Z", "published_at": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.429827Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-25T18:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 151, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 24020, "title": "Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?", "created_at": "2024-05-17T02:24:01.423813Z", "open_time": "2024-05-22T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-25T18:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-25T18:19:30.830330Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-biden-debate-coronavirus-422040), due to the COVID pandemic. Details about the debate logistics have not been discussed by the Trump and Biden campaigns, and they have [substantial disagreements](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/15/biden-proposes-2-debates-with-trump-ditching-bipartisan-commission-00158082).\n\nThe virus is no longer a health concern, but each candidate has an [extreme dislike](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/02/01/what-biden-really-says-about-trump-behind-closed-doors-00139178) [of the other](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/gestapo-administration-trump-likens-biden-054542634.html) that may dissuade the campaigns from agreeing to a handshake. The candidates appeared to greet each other [somewhat cordially](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=1758s) at the start of the 2020 debate, but a lot has changed since then.\n\nHistorically, there is a long tradition of handshakes at presidential debates starting with the two televised debates in 1960, with the streak [broken](https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/) at the 3rd debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump shake hands in a live, in-person debate. If this does not occur, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- \"Shake hands\" is defined using the Merriam-Webster [definition](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/handshake): *a clasping usually of right hands by two people (as in greeting or farewell)*. Therefore other forms of greeting such as a fist bump, elbow bump, or hug will not count.\n\n- If no debates are held, this question will be annulled.\n\n- A handshake between the candidates at a non-debate event is not sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\n- The handshake must be clearly verifiable through photographic or video evidence. Without such evidence, the question resolves as No.", "post_id": 24020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730599865.328797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730599865.328797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 150, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008339490079427254 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.982925058783984, 3.1901355439793937, 0.04848796881023545, 0.041718968210202996, 0.18054143675187906, 0.034510219276426696, 0.0, 0.028843657722204246, 0.0, 0.0, 3.544782312028087e-05, 0.0, 0.003979581857854786, 0.001046521044590731, 0.0052609234125902396, 0.01945113786916815, 0.0, 0.0015497749769346958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010210330009465203, 0.0008662852711703946, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3931940850355772, 0.0, 0.005232422652487864, 0.020144168040437328, 0.0, 0.012175920277430464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00041997609754380823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009529519342969318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007860979143548365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013325647506438707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003321018840840107, 0.0, 0.0011474385841908218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025119263892818414, 0.0005805020701962338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.556489332607938e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9732665434442537e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016343717175905698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002896290564393036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.71156933753219e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023103986009030196 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.78807512731454, "peer_score": 23.962522076540466, "coverage": 0.999584723633599, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999584723633599, "spot_peer_score": -23.115300569491765, "baseline_archived_score": 83.78807512731454, "peer_archived_score": 23.962522076540466, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -23.115300569491765 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288600.050103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288600.050103, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 148, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 579, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump and Joe Biden are [slated to debate at least twice](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/politics/joe-biden-debate/index.html) during the 2024 election, and they already debated twice during the 2020 campaign. In neither of the 2020 debates did they [shake hands](https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/26/trump-biden-debate-coronavirus-422040), due to the COVID pandemic. Details about the debate logistics have not been discussed by the Trump and Biden campaigns, and they have [substantial disagreements](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/05/15/biden-proposes-2-debates-with-trump-ditching-bipartisan-commission-00158082).\n\nThe virus is no longer a health concern, but each candidate has an [extreme dislike](https://www.politico.com/newsletters/west-wing-playbook/2024/02/01/what-biden-really-says-about-trump-behind-closed-doors-00139178) [of the other](https://sg.news.yahoo.com/gestapo-administration-trump-likens-biden-054542634.html) that may dissuade the campaigns from agreeing to a handshake. The candidates appeared to greet each other [somewhat cordially](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wW1lY5jFNcQ&t=1758s) at the start of the 2020 debate, but a lot has changed since then.\n\nHistorically, there is a long tradition of handshakes at presidential debates starting with the two televised debates in 1960, with the streak [broken](https://time.com/4538640/handshake-presidential-debates/) at the 3rd debate between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton in 2016." }, { "id": 23937, "title": "Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?", "short_title": "Human communication through telepathy", "url_title": "Human communication through telepathy", "slug": "human-communication-through-telepathy", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-16T04:37:51.703714Z", "published_at": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:03:51.427948Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23937, "title": "Will humans be able to communicate via telepathy before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-05-16T04:37:51.703714Z", "open_time": "2024-10-01T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-10-05T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-10-05T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Telepathy is the ability to transmit thoughts or information from one mind to another without using sensory channels. It has long been a staple of science fiction and fantasy but in recent years, advancements in neuroscience and technology have made the idea of communicating without sounds, writing or typing closer to reality.\n\nIn a [study published in Nature in 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06377-x) the possibility to find the word a patient was thinking was demonstrated with much better odds than random. This system used intracortical microelectrode arrays to record high-resolution neural signals, achieving a word error rate of 9.1% on a 50-word vocabulary and 23.8% on a 125,000-word vocabulary.\n\nThese advancements have been made through the use of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI), which are systems that facilitate direct communication between the brain and an external device, through neural interaction. The most famous company working on these types of interfaces is Elon Musk's Neuralink, which [successfully implanted a chip in a patient at the beginning of 2024](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/neuralinks-first-human-patient-able-control-mouse-through-thinking-musk-says-2024-02-20/). The patient was later able to play chess and Civilization on his computer.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if:\n\n1. before January 1, 2050, telepathy has been achieved between humans, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) scientific sources such as a peer-reviewed article, and\n\n2. the capacity has been replicated successfully, also according to credible scientific sources.\n\nThis question will resolve negative on January 1, 2050, if there is no information indicating that the two conditions have been met.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, telepathy will be defined as the direct transmission of thoughts or information between two human brains without using traditional communication (speech, text, etc...). \n\nThe accuracy threshold for validity will be an 85% accuracy over the equivalent length of information of a one minute conversation via natural speech.\n\nA peer-reviewed publication or scientific report from credible scientific sources must document a successful instance of telepathic communication. \n\nInformation transmitted should show a minimum of complexity: sentences may be decided by the operators but will have to be unknown to the receiver. Simple concepts like a basic list of no more than 10 numbers, letters or words (alternatively) will not count.\n\nBoth invasive (such as brain implants) and non-invasive (such as EEG) methods of brain signal acquisition are considered valid and use of intermediary (devices, algorithms, AI) to facilitate communication is permissible.\n\nThe technology must have potential for future scalability for broader use, as indicated by credible sources.\n\nThis resolves positive even if the technology has only been demonstrated in a lab.", "post_id": 23937, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639020.877577, "end_time": 1789175022.439, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639020.877577, "end_time": 1789175022.439, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5229054651155614 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.37622841148051234, 1.025910318302224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3811173095856051, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28307053233759993, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43589991024459757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6795760587132514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1889107851499863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287389.103805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287389.103805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4187030062777495, 0.5812969937222505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Telepathy is the ability to transmit thoughts or information from one mind to another without using sensory channels. It has long been a staple of science fiction and fantasy but in recent years, advancements in neuroscience and technology have made the idea of communicating without sounds, writing or typing closer to reality.\n\nIn a [study published in Nature in 2023](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06377-x) the possibility to find the word a patient was thinking was demonstrated with much better odds than random. This system used intracortical microelectrode arrays to record high-resolution neural signals, achieving a word error rate of 9.1% on a 50-word vocabulary and 23.8% on a 125,000-word vocabulary.\n\nThese advancements have been made through the use of Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCI), which are systems that facilitate direct communication between the brain and an external device, through neural interaction. The most famous company working on these types of interfaces is Elon Musk's Neuralink, which [successfully implanted a chip in a patient at the beginning of 2024](https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/neuralinks-first-human-patient-able-control-mouse-through-thinking-musk-says-2024-02-20/). The patient was later able to play chess and Civilization on his computer." }, { "id": 23877, "title": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "short_title": "EU New Tariffs on EVs from China July 2024?", "url_title": "EU New Tariffs on EVs from China July 2024?", "slug": "eu-new-tariffs-on-evs-from-china-july-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-15T16:22:56.128271Z", "published_at": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.692226Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 23877, "title": "Will the European Union announce new tariffs or duties on imports of Chinese electric vehicles before July 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-15T16:22:56.128271Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-19T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-19T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-04T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-12T15:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [Analysts have suggested](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html) that the new tariffs may put pressure on the European Union (EU) to protect its own EV industry, as the US tariffs may effectively close off the US market, making the EU market more attractive to Chinese EV manufacturers.\n\nThe [European Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission) has been [conducting an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese EVs](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html) since [September 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/). The [investigation has a July 4 deadline](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752) to impose provisional anti-subsidy duties.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before July 5, 2024, credible sources report that the European Union (EU) has announced that new tariffs or duties will be imposed that would apply to imports of Chinese electric vehicles into the EU.", "fine_print": "* New tariffs, duties or sanctions that apply to other countries or products also count, so long as they would apply to Chinese EVs as well.\n* The tariffs or duties do not need to take effect before July 5, 2024, only an announcement is required.\n* Tariffs or duties do not need to be related to the [ongoing anti-subsidy investigation](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752), new tariffs or duties on Chinese EVs imposed for any reason will qualify.\n* Pre-notification of tariffs will count as an announcement of tariffs for the purposes of this question.", "post_id": 23877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718302922.187401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718302922.187401, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9617213311071648 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.100120356111322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029102099193291783, 0.0023916025099906184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005612852165504251, 0.028891780429088763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004878079341891922, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21037230990838915, 0.02248592739820702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007599064747706633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03715314298507881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00659673955321026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01807644771542133, 0.004147367952591529, 0.009928975007740863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030645134464605966, 0.0, 0.008707034755549023, 0.027700581072225252, 0.0, 0.037286313441487653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026152847265353614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1246610110958938, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015257314047317206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04101658622091283, 0.0591057465619563, 0.0, 0.5780890010866883, 0.0, 0.7408711152380609, 0.15364810343764243, 0.0, 0.5315087728511532, 0.7219523206900296, 11.932403952444572 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.242949753189386, "coverage": 0.5486266468323687, "baseline_score": 15.184863991031703, "spot_peer_score": 59.76737760909427, "peer_archived_score": 20.242949753189386, "baseline_archived_score": 15.184863991031703, "spot_peer_archived_score": 59.76737760909427 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1718204923.497603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1718204923.497603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.05560823586508912, 0.9443917641349109 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 315, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On May 14, 2024, the Biden administration imposed [new tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs) and other goods](https://apnews.com/article/biden-china-tariffs-electric-vehicles-evs-solar-2024ba735c47e04a50898a88425c5e2c), with the EV tariffs increasing to a total level of 102.5% from the previous total of 27.5%. [Analysts have suggested](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/15/business/us-tariffs-ev-europe-china-trade/index.html) that the new tariffs may put pressure on the European Union (EU) to protect its own EV industry, as the US tariffs may effectively close off the US market, making the EU market more attractive to Chinese EV manufacturers.\n\nThe [European Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Commission) has been [conducting an anti-subsidy investigation of Chinese EVs](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/30/chinese-ev-imports-europe-might-need-to-impose-up-to-55percent-in-tariffs-.html) since [September 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-launches-anti-subsidy-investigation-into-chinese-electric-vehicles-2023-09-13/). The [investigation has a July 4 deadline](https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_4752) to impose provisional anti-subsidy duties." }, { "id": 23876, "title": "Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025?", "short_title": "REAL ID Delayed Again?", "url_title": "REAL ID Delayed Again?", "slug": "real-id-delayed-again", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-15T10:57:06.344201Z", "published_at": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.366718Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T13:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23876, "title": "Will the REAL ID deadline be extended beyond May 7, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-05-15T10:57:06.344201Z", "open_time": "2024-05-16T13:52:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-19T13:52:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-19T13:52:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-05-08T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-05-09T13:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-05-09T13:55:58.059981Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-05-06T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of May 2024, it has been almost 20 years since the 9/11 Commission [recommended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_ID_Act) federal standards for identification, which resulted in the enactment of the controversial REAL ID Act in 2005. According to the 9/11 Commission's [report](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pdf) on page 390:\n\n>At many entry points to vulnerable facilities, including gates for boarding aircraft, sources of identification are the last opportunity to ensure that people are who they say they are and to check\nwhether they are terrorists.\n\nOn the other hand, opponents such as security expert Bruce Schneier [have argued](https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2007/03/real-id_costs_and_be.html) that REAL ID imposes significant costs for little benefit, as well as introducing new vulnerabilities. The Electronic Frontier Foundation [has said](https://www.eff.org/issues/real-id) that REAL ID:\n\n>. . . requires a vast national database linking all of the ID records together. Once the IDs and database are in place their uses will inevitably expand to facilitate a wide range of surveillance activities.\n\nFull implementation of the law has been slow, with some states such as Maine, South Carolina and Pennsylvania [refusing to comply](https://iapp.org/news/a/why-some-states-wont-comply-with-real-id-requirements/). Originally set for May 11, 2008, full implementation of REAL ID was at first delayed to December 31, 2009 and then has had a series of delays after that. Finally on December 5, 2022, DHS [announced](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2022/12/05/dhs-announces-extension-real-id-full-enforcement-deadline) the latest extension, of 24 months, for the 50 US states to bring their driver's licenses and ID cards into compliance with the Act.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before May 8, 2025, the REAL ID deadline of May 7, 2025, is changed to a later date. If this does not occur, and the compliance deadline for US travelers remains May 7, 2025, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nResolves based on the official [REAL ID Countdown](https://www.dhs.gov/real-id) page maintained by the US Department of Homeland Security (DHS) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If the REAL ID deadline is changed to a later date but subsequently reverts back to โค May 7, 2025, the question will still resolve as **Yes** as of the first announcement of the delay.", "post_id": 23876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1746489239.346582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1746489239.346582, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3884092915027184 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.634362272227398, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.958618349098435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 1.670104975249027, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39377957201828895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.9057678795005379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1919745909177524 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -128.32827969793718, "peer_score": -0.18869093991155622, "coverage": 0.9997581334193201, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997581334193201, "spot_peer_score": 35.175462410354754, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": -128.32827969793718, "peer_archived_score": -0.18869093991155622, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.175462410354754, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289894.433294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289894.433294, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37640648720762293, 0.6235935127923771 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of May 2024, it has been almost 20 years since the 9/11 Commission [recommended](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_ID_Act) federal standards for identification, which resulted in the enactment of the controversial REAL ID Act in 2005. According to the 9/11 Commission's [report](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/GPO-911REPORT/pdf/GPO-911REPORT.pdf) on page 390:\n\n>At many entry points to vulnerable facilities, including gates for boarding aircraft, sources of identification are the last opportunity to ensure that people are who they say they are and to check\nwhether they are terrorists.\n\nOn the other hand, opponents such as security expert Bruce Schneier [have argued](https://www.schneier.com/essays/archives/2007/03/real-id_costs_and_be.html) that REAL ID imposes significant costs for little benefit, as well as introducing new vulnerabilities. The Electronic Frontier Foundation [has said](https://www.eff.org/issues/real-id) that REAL ID:\n\n>. . . requires a vast national database linking all of the ID records together. Once the IDs and database are in place their uses will inevitably expand to facilitate a wide range of surveillance activities.\n\nFull implementation of the law has been slow, with some states such as Maine, South Carolina and Pennsylvania [refusing to comply](https://iapp.org/news/a/why-some-states-wont-comply-with-real-id-requirements/). Originally set for May 11, 2008, full implementation of REAL ID was at first delayed to December 31, 2009 and then has had a series of delays after that. Finally on December 5, 2022, DHS [announced](https://www.dhs.gov/news/2022/12/05/dhs-announces-extension-real-id-full-enforcement-deadline) the latest extension, of 24 months, for the 50 US states to bring their driver's licenses and ID cards into compliance with the Act." }, { "id": 23873, "title": "Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?", "short_title": "Artificial Island with 1m population by 2100", "url_title": "Artificial Island with 1m population by 2100", "slug": "artificial-island-with-1m-population-by-2100", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-14T23:33:06.428341Z", "published_at": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:22:35.811429Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2080-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23873, "title": "Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 1,000,000 or more inhabitants before 2100?", "created_at": "2024-05-14T23:33:06.428341Z", "open_time": "2024-09-22T14:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-25T14:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-25T14:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2080-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2080-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial islands have a long history and have been built in many parts of the world. Ancient examples include the reclaimed islands of Ancient Egypt, as well as artificial islands in Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Micronesia and the still extant floating islands of Lake Titicaca between Peru and Bolivia.\n\nIn modern times, technology has advanced and enabled the construction of more artificial islands. [The Pearl Island](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pearl_Island) in Doha, Qatar is one of the most populous artificial islands today with an area of 4kmยฒ and a population of over 50,000 [as of 2023](https://udcqatar.com/Media-Room/Press-Releases/2023-08-11-The-Pearl-Island-experiences-a-significant-increase-in-vehicle-influx). There are planned, existing, debated, or ongoing projects for artificial islands in several countries, including China, Bahrain, Israel, the Netherlands, the Maldives, Qatar and the UAE.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time before January 1, 2100, there is an artificial island or archipelago whose construction begun after the year 2000, that has a permanent population of 1,000,000 inhabitants or more. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* An island will only count as artificial if at least 85% of its area has been built artificially.\n\n* An archipelago can consist of both natural and artificial islands, but for it to count the artificial islands of the archipelago must have a total population of at least 1,000,000.", "post_id": 23873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757640144.870889, "end_time": 1787653532.068, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757640144.870889, "end_time": 1787653532.068, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5410295872342112 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.729530083479223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289375.519475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289375.519475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8547881147031023, 0.14521188529689766 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 14, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial islands have a long history and have been built in many parts of the world. Ancient examples include the reclaimed islands of Ancient Egypt, as well as artificial islands in Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Micronesia and the still extant floating islands of Lake Titicaca between Peru and Bolivia.\n\nIn modern times, technology has advanced and enabled the construction of more artificial islands. [The Pearl Island](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pearl_Island) in Doha, Qatar is one of the most populous artificial islands today with an area of 4kmยฒ and a population of over 50,000 [as of 2023](https://udcqatar.com/Media-Room/Press-Releases/2023-08-11-The-Pearl-Island-experiences-a-significant-increase-in-vehicle-influx). There are planned, existing, debated, or ongoing projects for artificial islands in several countries, including China, Bahrain, Israel, the Netherlands, the Maldives, Qatar and the UAE." }, { "id": 23872, "title": "Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 100,000 or more inhabitants before 2050?", "short_title": "Artificial Island with 100k pop. by 2050?", "url_title": "Artificial Island with 100k pop. by 2050?", "slug": "artificial-island-with-100k-pop-by-2050", "author_id": 128784, "author_username": "benj83", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-14T23:32:47.149804Z", "published_at": "2024-09-23T22:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.730235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-23T22:21:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-23T22:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23872, "title": "Will any modern artificial island reach a population of 100,000 or more inhabitants before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-05-14T23:32:47.149804Z", "open_time": "2024-09-23T22:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-26T22:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-26T22:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial islands have a long history and have been built in many parts of the world. Ancient examples include the reclaimed islands of Ancient Egypt, as well as artificial islands in Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Micronesia and the still extant floating islands of Lake Titicaca between Peru and Bolivia.\n\nIn modern times, technology has advanced and enabled the construction of more artificial islands. [The Pearl Island](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pearl_Island) in Doha, Qatar is one of the most populous artificial islands today with an area of 4kmยฒ and a population of over 50,000 [as of 2023](https://udcqatar.com/Media-Room/Press-Releases/2023-08-11-The-Pearl-Island-experiences-a-significant-increase-in-vehicle-influx). There are planned, existing, debated, or ongoing projects for artificial islands in several countries, including China, Bahrain, Israel, the Netherlands, the Maldives, Qatar and the UAE.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time before January 1, 2050, there is an artificial island or archipelago whose construction begun after the year 2000, that has a permanent population of 100,000 inhabitants or more. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "* An island will only count as artificial if at least 85% of its area has been built artificially.\n\n* An archipelago can consist of both natural and artificial islands, but for it to count the artificial islands of the archipelago must have a total population of at least 100,000.", "post_id": 23872, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742095764.002699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742095764.002699, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.4828214987468345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287835.485259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287835.485259, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.511964147811143, 0.488035852188857 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial islands have a long history and have been built in many parts of the world. Ancient examples include the reclaimed islands of Ancient Egypt, as well as artificial islands in Wales, Scotland, Ireland, Micronesia and the still extant floating islands of Lake Titicaca between Peru and Bolivia.\n\nIn modern times, technology has advanced and enabled the construction of more artificial islands. [The Pearl Island](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Pearl_Island) in Doha, Qatar is one of the most populous artificial islands today with an area of 4kmยฒ and a population of over 50,000 [as of 2023](https://udcqatar.com/Media-Room/Press-Releases/2023-08-11-The-Pearl-Island-experiences-a-significant-increase-in-vehicle-influx). There are planned, existing, debated, or ongoing projects for artificial islands in several countries, including China, Bahrain, Israel, the Netherlands, the Maldives, Qatar and the UAE." }, { "id": 23819, "title": "Will OPEC+ extend or expand its current 2.2 million barrel-per-day voluntary oil output cut following the OPEC+ meeting on June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will OPEC+ Extend Its Output Cuts?", "url_title": "Will OPEC+ Extend Its Output Cuts?", "slug": "will-opec-extend-its-output-cuts", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-14T12:16:47.303030Z", "published_at": "2024-05-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.839354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-28T14:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T16:00:00Z", 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null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following its October 5, 2022 meeting, OPEC+ announced production cuts of 2 million barrels a day, which was seen as a geopolitical [rebuke](https://www.npr.org/2022/10/05/1126754169/opec-oil-production-cut) of the US president, Joe Biden, who had traveled to Saudi Arabia to press for production increases. According to reporting by [The Intercept](https://theintercept.com/2022/10/20/saudi-oil-production-cut/) and [The Financial Times](https://ghostarchive.org/archive/20221210/https://www.ft.com/content/70853af8-b7a4-4a28-bdfe-b4f3e375a1f0), this was widely seen as Saudi Arabia aligning itself closer with Russia. Additionally, The Intercept quoted Bruce Riedel, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution: \n\n>โThe Saudis are well aware that the price of gasoline at the pump has been a crucial political issue in the United States since 1973. They want a big increase to help the Republicans,โ explaining that MBS sees the GOP winning back Congress as the โfirst step to Trump winning in 2024 and a setback for Biden.โ\n\nThe 2 million barrel cut in 2022 represented about 2% of the global output at the time, and it has been extended several times as well as [expanded to 2.2 million barrels per day at the November 2023 meeting](https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7267.htm). The cut is set to expire at the end of June 2024 unless it is extended at the June 1 meeting. \n\nThere have been media reports that there could be a fight among the members over whether to extend the cuts and that it might not be a fait accompli as before. Iraq's oil minister, Hayyan Abdul Ghani, [said to reporters](https://worldoil.com/news/2024/5/12/iraq-won-t-agree-to-more-opec-production-cuts-oil-minister-reports/), โNo, I think Iraq has cut enough and will not agree to any other cut.โ Notably, however, he subsequently put out a [statement](https://english.aawsat.com/business/5014711-iraq-stresses-commitment-opec-does-not-oppose-extending-production-cuts) saying that Iraq would not oppose extending the production cuts.\n\nFor further context please see Energy Intelligence: [Tough Baseline Talks Loom for Opec-Plus](https://www.energyintel.com/0000018f-5a26-d494-a78f-da7601eb0000).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at its June 1, 2024 meeting, OPEC+ agrees to extend or expand its current voluntary oil production and export cuts (approximately 2.2 million barrels-per-day) beyond June 2024. If the current cuts are not extended or expanded the question resolves as **No**. The question will resolve according to reporting from credible sources describing the decision made at the meeting.", "fine_print": "* If the OPEC+ meeting scheduled for June 1, 2024 is postponed or canceled, this question will be **annulled**.\n* Only the total level of voluntary cuts will be assessed, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if some countries end or reduce their voluntary cuts, but the end of those cuts is offset by new cuts from other countries such that the net production or export cut remains at approximately 2.2 million barrels-per-day or more.\n * In the event of minor adjustments, the question will still resolve as **Yes** if the precise net production or export cut remains at 2.1 million barrels-per-day or more.\n* Compliance with the cuts is immaterial, only an announcement that the voluntary cuts will be extended at or above current levels is required for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 23819, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716895370.587283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716895370.587283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "centers": [ 0.87 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.94 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.13, 0.87 ], "means": [ 0.8660133681798572 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0052619857942816685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011295907652000815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023132514010442214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031787604112146167, 0.017967096637953702, 0.0015287348614981507, 0.0, 0.01550349210722101, 0.0, 0.03888352709142359, 0.0, 0.02704288263026733, 0.0, 1.3271646046634116, 0.18845135581481406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5091495671625168, 0.8159353310997544, 0.17573956450005151, 1.1815472771561626, 0.35792372069482337, 0.9374735813051446, 0.0, 0.5740082308689856, 0.6636132173033817, 0.030705460506385295, 1.9238923134863577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6353936612981415, 1.6875370891639447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3413875028938964 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716895370.636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716895370.636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.18131104758978156, 0.8186889524102184 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following its October 5, 2022 meeting, OPEC+ announced production cuts of 2 million barrels a day, which was seen as a geopolitical [rebuke](https://www.npr.org/2022/10/05/1126754169/opec-oil-production-cut) of the US president, Joe Biden, who had traveled to Saudi Arabia to press for production increases. 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The cut is set to expire at the end of June 2024 unless it is extended at the June 1 meeting. \n\nThere have been media reports that there could be a fight among the members over whether to extend the cuts and that it might not be a fait accompli as before. Iraq's oil minister, Hayyan Abdul Ghani, [said to reporters](https://worldoil.com/news/2024/5/12/iraq-won-t-agree-to-more-opec-production-cuts-oil-minister-reports/), โNo, I think Iraq has cut enough and will not agree to any other cut.โ Notably, however, he subsequently put out a [statement](https://english.aawsat.com/business/5014711-iraq-stresses-commitment-opec-does-not-oppose-extending-production-cuts) saying that Iraq would not oppose extending the production cuts.\n\nFor further context please see Energy Intelligence: [Tough Baseline Talks Loom for Opec-Plus](https://www.energyintel.com/0000018f-5a26-d494-a78f-da7601eb0000)." }, { "id": 23763, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will the Philippines Expel Chinese Diplomats?", "url_title": "Will the Philippines Expel Chinese Diplomats?", "slug": "will-the-philippines-expel-chinese-diplomats", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": 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}, "group_rank": null, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before June 1, 2024, one of these four events happens, according to official statements or [credible reports](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions): \n\n- The Philippines expels at least one diplomat representing the People's Republic of China (PRC). \n\n- The Philippines recalls at least one of its diplomats stationed in the PRC.\n\n- The PRC expels at least one diplomat representing the Philippines.\n\n- The PRC 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"interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717177015.745995, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 70, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 261, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)." }, { "id": 23761, "title": "Will variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 (FLiRT variants) reach a combined 75% variant proportion in the United States in any period before September 28, 2024?", "short_title": "FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024?", "url_title": "FLiRT Variants Reach 75% Proportion in 2024?", "slug": "flirt-variants-reach-75-proportion-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-13T16:49:50.036179Z", "published_at": "2024-05-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.616687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 21, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-28T13:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-08T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) (using the \"Nowcast\"). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning). The family of FLiRT variants [also includes](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/what-to-know-about-covid-flirt-variants) KP.2, KP.3, JN.1.7, JN.1.1, and KP.1.1. The \"Nowcast\" for the week ending May 11, 2024, currently shows the following proportions for those variants:\n\n* KP.2: 28.2%\n* KP.1.1: 7.1%\n* Others are not prevalent enough to display", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, [CDC's variant proportions page](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) shows a combined weighted estimate for variants KP.2 and KP.1.1 in the United States are 75% or more of the variants sequence in any period ending between May 11, 2024, and September 28, 2024, inclusive.", "fine_print": "* CDC currently reports two week periods, which will be used unless the reporting period changes. If the reporting period changes the new reporting period will be used. If multiple reporting periods are available the one nearest to the two week period will be used, as determined by Metaculus.\n* This question resolves according to the \"Weighted\" estimate and will not use the \"Nowcast\" estimate.\n* The HHS region used will be \"USA\".\n* The central estimate reported will be used.", "post_id": 23761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727468163.509169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727468163.509169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.013595853208972195 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.357633984080518, 1.291764310045783, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.17354305674966014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 71.81446667101012, "peer_score": 10.399442016410143, "coverage": 0.9994270741222906, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994270741222906, "spot_peer_score": 8.945398661395295, "baseline_archived_score": 71.81446667101012, "peer_archived_score": 10.399442016410143, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.945398661395295 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727511562.378379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727511562.378379, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 197, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions) (using the \"Nowcast\"). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning). The family of FLiRT variants [also includes](https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2024/what-to-know-about-covid-flirt-variants) KP.2, KP.3, JN.1.7, JN.1.1, and KP.1.1. The \"Nowcast\" for the week ending May 11, 2024, currently shows the following proportions for those variants:\n\n* KP.2: 28.2%\n* KP.1.1: 7.1%\n* Others are not prevalent enough to display" }, { "id": 23760, "title": "Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Repeat Catalan Election", "url_title": "Repeat Catalan Election", "slug": "repeat-catalan-election", "author_id": 177610, "author_username": "politoleg", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-13T11:33:23.000957Z", "published_at": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.235145Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-10T06:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "๐ณ๏ธ", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23760, "title": "Will there be a repeat election in the Parliament of Catalonia before the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-05-13T11:33:23.000957Z", "open_time": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-24T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-24T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-10T06:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-10T06:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:33:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.\n\nThe Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the elections, with more than 26% of votes on average. The two main pro-independence parties, Together for Catalonia (Junts) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), were in a tight battle for second place, and finally ERC lost with a 13 fewer deputies fall.\n\nThe People's Party (PP), the main party of the Spanish right, made a significant leap compared to the results achieved in 2021, winning around 10% of the votes. Other parties such as En Comรบ (or Comuns), Vox, and the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP) also received a notable percentage of votes.\n\nThe election results have set the stage for a range of possibilities for the future governance of Catalonia. Some sources suggest a repeat of the current pro-independence government, but there's no more majority in Parliament. However, the possibility of a repeat election also exists if a stable government cannot be formed.\n\nThe Catalan electoral system foresees that if, two months after the first investiture attempt of a candidate for President of the Generalitat (Gouvernement), investiture is not achieved, the Parliament automatically dissolves, and new elections are called.\n\nMore Info\n\nBBC: [Spain Socialists win Catalan vote as separatists lose ground(]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69000823)\n\nNew York Times: [Spainโs Socialists Win Catalan Vote Dominated by Amnesty for Separatists](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/spain-catalan-election.html)\n\n[Four scenarios for resolving the investiture at the last minute](https://en.ara.cat/politics/four-scenarios-for-resolving-the-investiture-at-the-last-minute_1_3985389.html) (the last election (2021) that could ended in a new election.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be defined in two possible ways:\n\n1. Before January 1, 2025, there is a new elected President (the current one, Pere Aragonรจs, is in provisional functions and will cease to hold office once a new president is elected). Constitutionally, this situation would prevent elections for at least one year under any circumstances. In this case, the question will resolve as **No** immediately upon the new president being elected.\n\n2. Before January 1, 2025, the automatic mechanism is activated due to lack of an invested president, and elections are called automatically by decree. The elections must be held before January 1, 2025, so the decree of convocation must be signed 52 days before, as required by Spanish law. In this case, the question will resolve immediately as **Yes**.\n\nIf no new elections are otherwise called before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "The Catalan electoral system foresees that if, two months after the first investiture attempt of a candidate for President of the Generalitat (Gouvernement), investiture is not achieved, the Parliament automatically dissolves, and new elections are called.\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "post_id": 23760, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723246806.497808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.547 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723246806.497808, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "centers": [ 0.547 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45299999999999996, 0.547 ], "means": [ 0.4549038236224907 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 1.1304496304840794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.12028092683958516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.459076198919707, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -8.599009523737205, "coverage": 0.36239112877730434, "baseline_score": -31.97753122306044, "spot_peer_score": 72.68386274256596, "peer_archived_score": -8.599009523737205, "baseline_archived_score": -31.97753122306044, "spot_peer_archived_score": 72.68386274256596 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723246806.546967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723246806.546967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5572416979997503, 0.44275830200024974 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 elections for the Parliament of Catalonia were held on May 12th. The results of these elections will have a significant impact on the future governance of Catalonia.\n\nThe Catalan Socialists (PSC) emerged as the leading force in the elections, with more than 26% of votes on average. The two main pro-independence parties, Together for Catalonia (Junts) and the Catalan Republican Left (ERC), were in a tight battle for second place, and finally ERC lost with a 13 fewer deputies fall.\n\nThe People's Party (PP), the main party of the Spanish right, made a significant leap compared to the results achieved in 2021, winning around 10% of the votes. Other parties such as En Comรบ (or Comuns), Vox, and the Popular Unity Candidature (CUP) also received a notable percentage of votes.\n\nThe election results have set the stage for a range of possibilities for the future governance of Catalonia. Some sources suggest a repeat of the current pro-independence government, but there's no more majority in Parliament. However, the possibility of a repeat election also exists if a stable government cannot be formed.\n\nThe Catalan electoral system foresees that if, two months after the first investiture attempt of a candidate for President of the Generalitat (Gouvernement), investiture is not achieved, the Parliament automatically dissolves, and new elections are called.\n\nMore Info\n\nBBC: [Spain Socialists win Catalan vote as separatists lose ground(]https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-69000823)\n\nNew York Times: [Spainโs Socialists Win Catalan Vote Dominated by Amnesty for Separatists](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/12/world/europe/spain-catalan-election.html)\n\n[Four scenarios for resolving the investiture at the last minute](https://en.ara.cat/politics/four-scenarios-for-resolving-the-investiture-at-the-last-minute_1_3985389.html) (the last election (2021) that could ended in a new election.)" }, { "id": 23750, "title": "Will a spacecraft made by humans land on a moon of Jupiter before 2050?", "short_title": "Will a Spacecraft Land on Jupiter by 2050?", "url_title": "Will a Spacecraft Land on Jupiter by 2050?", "slug": "will-a-spacecraft-land-on-jupiter-by-2050", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-11T19:10:21.148269Z", "published_at": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.299411Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-07T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23750, "title": "Will a spacecraft made by humans land on a moon of Jupiter before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-05-11T19:10:21.148269Z", "open_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-07T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Jupiter has at least [92 moons](https://www.space.com/16452-jupiters-moons.html), many of them rich in water and potentially in mineral resources. Jupiter's moon Europa, in particular, is well suited to support life, [according to](https://europa.nasa.gov/news/33/europa-a-world-of-ice-with-potential-for-life/) NASA. The \"ocean world\" of Europa, in fact, might even have life on it [right now](https://theconversation.com/if-life-exists-on-jupiters-moon-europa-scientists-might-soon-be-able-to-detect-it-226656). Ganymede [has](https://earthsky.org/space/ganymede-salts-organics-juno/) a deep liquid ocean under its icy surface. Io is extremely volcanic, with [new deposits](https://science.nasa.gov/jupiter/moons/io/) constantly being brought up to its surface from below. And so on. \n\nThe Pioneer 10 mission [first flew](https://www.planetary.org/space-missions/pioneer) by Jupiter in 1973, making images of the planet. Other missions have been Voyager 2 by Jupiter [in 1979](https://www.nasa.gov/history/40-years-ago-voyager-2-explores-jupiter/), Galileo's mission to study Jupiter and its moons in [1995-2003](https://science.nasa.gov/mission/galileo/), and most recently the [Juno mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/juno) studying Jupiter.\n\nCurrently NASA's Clipper is [scheduled](https://europa.nasa.gov/) to launch in fall 2024 and reach Jupiter around 2030 and study Europa, albeit from doing flybys rather than landing on it. The European Space Agency's [JUICE mission](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Juice) is expected to reach Jupiter in 2031 and study Ganymede, Callisto and Europa, also through a series of flybys. China is planning a [possible](https://www.planetary.org/articles/chinas-plans-for-outer-solar-system-exploration) landing on Callisto in the mid 2030s. Callisto, due to its [geological stability](https://sci.esa.int/web/juice/-/59907-juice-s-secondary-target-callisto) among other reasons, has also been of interest to the ESA.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that a spacecraft built by humans has successfully landed on any of Jupiter's moons before January 1, 2050. Otherwise, it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"successfully landed\" will be defined as:\n\n- The lander remains intact and able to communicate with the Earth\n\n- The landing does not prevent at least some of the lander's payload from being able to carry out its intended mission. \n\nFor example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as Yes. (This does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as time capsules might survive impact.)\n\nAny landers must land before January 1, 2050, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before January 7, 2050, regarding whether the criteria for a successful landing have been met.", "post_id": 23750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1734080197.269664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1734080197.269664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8284817887788719 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7053717364567356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.32556683034665873, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1098312621384765, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 1.9142125057487234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3983162418703161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.957503847387267 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288865.256541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288865.256541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17495843793481802, 0.825041562065182 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 29, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Jupiter has at least [92 moons](https://www.space.com/16452-jupiters-moons.html), many of them rich in water and potentially in mineral resources. Jupiter's moon Europa, in particular, is well suited to support life, [according to](https://europa.nasa.gov/news/33/europa-a-world-of-ice-with-potential-for-life/) NASA. The \"ocean world\" of Europa, in fact, might even have life on it [right now](https://theconversation.com/if-life-exists-on-jupiters-moon-europa-scientists-might-soon-be-able-to-detect-it-226656). Ganymede [has](https://earthsky.org/space/ganymede-salts-organics-juno/) a deep liquid ocean under its icy surface. Io is extremely volcanic, with [new deposits](https://science.nasa.gov/jupiter/moons/io/) constantly being brought up to its surface from below. And so on. \n\nThe Pioneer 10 mission [first flew](https://www.planetary.org/space-missions/pioneer) by Jupiter in 1973, making images of the planet. Other missions have been Voyager 2 by Jupiter [in 1979](https://www.nasa.gov/history/40-years-ago-voyager-2-explores-jupiter/), Galileo's mission to study Jupiter and its moons in [1995-2003](https://science.nasa.gov/mission/galileo/), and most recently the [Juno mission](https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/missions/juno) studying Jupiter.\n\nCurrently NASA's Clipper is [scheduled](https://europa.nasa.gov/) to launch in fall 2024 and reach Jupiter around 2030 and study Europa, albeit from doing flybys rather than landing on it. The European Space Agency's [JUICE mission](https://www.esa.int/Science_Exploration/Space_Science/Juice) is expected to reach Jupiter in 2031 and study Ganymede, Callisto and Europa, also through a series of flybys. China is planning a [possible](https://www.planetary.org/articles/chinas-plans-for-outer-solar-system-exploration) landing on Callisto in the mid 2030s. Callisto, due to its [geological stability](https://sci.esa.int/web/juice/-/59907-juice-s-secondary-target-callisto) among other reasons, has also been of interest to the ESA." }, { "id": 23749, "title": "Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?", "short_title": "Anthropomorphic robots in football?", "url_title": "Anthropomorphic robots in football?", "slug": "anthropomorphic-robots-in-football", "author_id": 172364, "author_username": "konon454", "coauthors": [ { "id": 172091, "username": "ekaterina8vikhrova" } ], "created_at": "2024-05-11T12:45:40.207587Z", "published_at": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:01:05.562891Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "๐ค", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 23749, "title": "Will an anthropomorphic robot with artificial intelligence win in a football (soccer) penalty shootout against a professional human player before January 1, 2035?", "created_at": "2024-05-11T12:45:40.207587Z", "open_time": "2024-05-25T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess ([Deep Blue PC, 1997](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001291)) Go ([AlphaGo description](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270)) or Texas Hold'em ([Libratus AI](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aao1733)) However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to interact with other objects, such as a ball in football. There are already prototypes of humanoid robots that demonstrate the skills of playing football ([NewScientist](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2426328-watch-mini-humanoid-robots-showing-off-their-football-skills/)) The question is whether in about 10 years this area will be able to progress in such a way as to create a humanoid capable of playing football as a human as a goalkeeper or striker.\n\nSee also Metaculus: [When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19930/robots-beat-humans-in-football/)", "resolution_criteria": "For a positive outcome, a video must be released before January 1, 2035, showing an anthropomorphic robot defeating a professional human football player in a 1-on-1 football penalty shootout by either: \n\n1. the robot acting as a striker who takes a penalty kick.\n\n1. the robot acting as a goalkeeper.\n\nA negative outcome assumes that the event described above did not occur.\nThe deadline for this criterion is January 1, 2035.", "fine_print": "\"Professional human player\" is defined as one who has competed within the last year in their top national or international football league (such as the [English Premier League](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Premier_League) or [FIFA](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIFA)).\n\nFor this question, \"robot\" means a mechanical (non-biological) machine which acts autonomously without human direction during the shootout. The robot may be either networked and controlled by a single autonomous system, or be a individual agent.\n\nThe rules of the shootout need not strictly match the rules held by any football league and may be altered to accommodate the robot or human player, so long as the shootout is a sincere competitive event more similar to football than any other game or activity, as determined by Metaculus' discretion.", "post_id": 23749, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758110455.133102, "end_time": 1758589266.899185, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758110455.133102, "end_time": 1758589266.899185, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.5817240073104581 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6925005722945777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6843774145207964, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8113574204010474, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5357553149775377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2796326254930048, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287420.532076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287420.532076, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4458752711274676, 0.5541247288725324 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Artificial intelligence has already beaten humans in games such as chess ([Deep Blue PC, 1997](https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0004370201001291)) Go ([AlphaGo description](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature24270)) or Texas Hold'em ([Libratus AI](https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aao1733)) However, all these games are logical or intellectual. They do not require special mechanisms to interact with other objects, such as a ball in football. There are already prototypes of humanoid robots that demonstrate the skills of playing football ([NewScientist](https://www.newscientist.com/article/2426328-watch-mini-humanoid-robots-showing-off-their-football-skills/)) The question is whether in about 10 years this area will be able to progress in such a way as to create a humanoid capable of playing football as a human as a goalkeeper or striker.\n\nSee also Metaculus: [When will robots win a game of association football (soccer) against professional human players?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19930/robots-beat-humans-in-football/)" }, { "id": 23461, "title": "Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?", "short_title": "Drake-Kendrick Feud: Still Going?", "url_title": "Drake-Kendrick Feud: Still Going?", "slug": "drake-kendrick-feud-still-going", "author_id": 123098, "author_username": "cooperability", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-09T19:17:39.771617Z", "published_at": "2024-05-10T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.728233Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-10T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-30T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-02T00:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-02T00:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-10T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 23461, "title": "Drake vs Kendrick Lamar: will either artist release another diss track in May?", "created_at": "2024-05-09T19:17:39.771617Z", "open_time": "2024-05-10T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-11T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-11T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-02T00:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-02T00:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-02T00:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-30T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Popular rappers Drake and Kendrick Lamar have been publicly feuding after a years-long contempt has bubbled into an all-out war, with each artist leveling enormous unsubstantiated accusations at the other. After the most recent round of the beef, with the release of Kendrick's \"Not Like Us\" and Drake's \"The Heart Part 6\", many have speculated that the feud has reached a tipping point and neither artist will release any further music. Do you think it's been played out, or there's more yet?\n\nFurther Background: [Wikipedia DrakeโKendrick Lamar feud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if either Drake or Kendrick Lamar releases another diss track directly intended for the other artist after May 9, 2024 and before June 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question \"diss track\" is defined using the [Wikipedia definition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diss_(music)) as \"a song whose primary purpose is to verbally attack someone else, usually another artist.\"\n\n\"Directly intended\" is defined as naming the other artist or referencing various events with him, insulting him or making accusations in the lyrics.", "post_id": 23461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716951250.33329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716951250.33329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08479109735410069 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 0.9870788831865287, 1.4932674470803087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.9879055898002704, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.207863672973154, "coverage": 0.9998187371090782, "baseline_score": 44.20219619973846, "spot_peer_score": 13.908635789188788, "peer_archived_score": 23.207863672973154, "baseline_archived_score": 44.20219619973846, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.908635789188788 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716968347.524277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716968347.524277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9984457875712155, 0.0015542124287845505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Popular rappers Drake and Kendrick Lamar have been publicly feuding after a years-long contempt has bubbled into an all-out war, with each artist leveling enormous unsubstantiated accusations at the other. After the most recent round of the beef, with the release of Kendrick's \"Not Like Us\" and Drake's \"The Heart Part 6\", many have speculated that the feud has reached a tipping point and neither artist will release any further music. Do you think it's been played out, or there's more yet?\n\nFurther Background: [Wikipedia DrakeโKendrick Lamar feud](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake%E2%80%93Kendrick_Lamar_feud)" }, { "id": 23458, "title": "Do we live in a false vacuum?", "short_title": "False vacuum universe", "url_title": "False vacuum universe", "slug": "false-vacuum-universe", "author_id": 130846, "author_username": "ForkLeaf", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-05-09T12:32:46.238747Z", "published_at": "2024-05-15T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.595593Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-15T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-15T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "๐ฌ", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 23458, "title": "Do we live in a false vacuum?", "created_at": "2024-05-09T12:32:46.238747Z", "open_time": "2024-05-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The idea of a [false vacuum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum) suggests that the energy state of vacuums in our universe is not actually the most stable state possible. Rather, the universe is currently in a state of metastable vacuum energy and that, through a sufficiently-energetic event or quantum tunnelling, a section of space may decay into a more stable, or \"true\" vacuum state at any moment. This would lead to the universe's Higgs Field, responsible for giving particles mass, to also shift to a more stable state. With a large enough true vacuum, such a collapse would begin permeating throughout the universe at the speed of light, changing the mass of elementary particles and, by extension, many of the fundamental laws of physics, such as gravity and the electroweak force. The consequences of this could range from near-imperceptible changes in physical constants to the complete gravitational collapse of the universe. As of [2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2018.00040/full), observation of interactions between Higgs Bosons and Top quarks have assessed with slightly greater than 2ฯ confidence that the universe is in a false vacuum state, although this is far from conclusive evidence.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if 3 or more papers published in reputable peer-reviewed scientific journals determine with 5ฯ confidence or greater that the universe is in a false vacuum state, based on observations of available data. Conversely, the question will resolve as **No** if 3 or more peer-reviewed scientific papers determine with 5ฯ confidence or greater that the universe is *not* in a false vacuum state. In both cases, all 3 papers must have been published for at least one year without a retraction to resolve this question. If neither of these occur before January 1, 2100, the question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, a \"false vacuum state\" means that the energy state of vacuums in our universe is not actually the most stable state possible. Instead, the vacuum is in a metastable state and a section of space may decay into a more stable, or \"true\" vacuum state at any moment. \n\nIn the event of division within the scientific community, if there are three or more peer-reviewed papers with 5ฯ confidence or greater on both sides of the issue, this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 23458, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740973511.193337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740973511.193337, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.48190733859805485 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.29095551644889905, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2698342999373675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34352598526839895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 1.3761060583777898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0431406997516748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286899.69292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286899.69292, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.838906937963258, 0.16109306203674204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The idea of a [false vacuum](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_vacuum) suggests that the energy state of vacuums in our universe is not actually the most stable state possible. Rather, the universe is currently in a state of metastable vacuum energy and that, through a sufficiently-energetic event or quantum tunnelling, a section of space may decay into a more stable, or \"true\" vacuum state at any moment. This would lead to the universe's Higgs Field, responsible for giving particles mass, to also shift to a more stable state. With a large enough true vacuum, such a collapse would begin permeating throughout the universe at the speed of light, changing the mass of elementary particles and, by extension, many of the fundamental laws of physics, such as gravity and the electroweak force. The consequences of this could range from near-imperceptible changes in physical constants to the complete gravitational collapse of the universe. As of [2018](https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fspas.2018.00040/full), observation of interactions between Higgs Bosons and Top quarks have assessed with slightly greater than 2ฯ confidence that the universe is in a false vacuum state, although this is far from conclusive evidence." } ] }
