Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2640
{ "count": 6352, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2660", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2620", "results": [ { "id": 27262, "title": "Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-august-21-and-sept-11-2024-will-the-strongest-geomagnetic-storm-have-a-k-index-kp-greater-than-7-and-less-than-or-equal-to-8", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:05.247924Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.597689Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T23:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27262, "title": "Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:05.247924Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T23:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-11T23:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-11T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 7 and less than or equal to 8, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their [running 30-day history](https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_nowcast.txt) data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. In the resolution source, Kp values are rounded to the nearest thousandth.", "post_id": 27262, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163806.507059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163806.507059, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3452598123985691 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.9943625258100085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.27082389038189786, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379418455065657, 0.0, 1.4805349401425136, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1066542261402237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 1.1411448587958903, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9173205401044999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.48895757991528316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44895925295914174, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163806.535583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163806.535583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7644797579263807, 0.23552024207361938 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In May 2024, sunspot region AR3664, now designated as AR3697, returned to face Earth after merging with another active sunspot region, resulting in numerous M- and X-class solar flares that caused intense [geomagnetic storms and auroras](https://earthsky.org/earth/auroras-last-night-extreme-solar-storm-wow-millions-may-10-11-12-2024/) visible at unusually low latitudes. \n\nAs AR3697 [returns to face Earth](https://www.space.com/return-aurora-causing-sunspot-june-solar-storm-prospects) in early June 2024, space weather forecasters anticipate ongoing geomagnetic activity and are closely monitoring the region's continued potential to produce extreme space weather. \n\n[Sunspots](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunspot) are areas of intense magnetic activity that often give rise to solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), which can disturb Earth's magnetosphere and impact satellite operations, power grids, and navigation systems.\n\nThe [K-index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K-index), which measures fluctuations in Earth's magnetic field, ranges from from 0 to 9. The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively." }, { "id": 27261, "title": "Between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024, will the strongest geomagnetic storm have a K-index (\"Kp\") greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "between-august-21-and-sept-11-2024-will-the-strongest-geomagnetic-storm-have-a-k-index-kp-greater-than-6-and-less-than-or-equal-to-8", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:05.130270Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.378323Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-12T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the highest Planetary K-index (\"Kp\") between August 21 and Sept 11, 2024 (inclusive) is greater than 6 and less than or equal to 8, according to the German Research Center for Geosciences in their [running 30-day history](https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/app/files/Kp_ap_nowcast.txt) data product.", "fine_print": "* Note that Kp values are measured in thirds (e.g., 1.0, 1.3̅, 1.6̅, 2.0, 2.3̅, etc.), with 9 being the highest possible value. 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The NOAA Space Weather Scales uses the Kp values to classify the severity of geomagnetic storms from G1 (minor) to G5 (extreme), equating to Kp values of 5 to 9, respectively." }, { "id": 27260, "title": "Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-big-lots-file-for-bankruptcy-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:05.019164Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.294069Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T01:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T01:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27260, "title": "Will Big Lots file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:05.019164Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T01:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-10T01:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-10T01:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Big Lots, Inc. runs a chain of discount stores selling items for the home. Founded in 1967, it has run with operating losses for two years in a row and is currently on a trajectory to have negative equity on its balance sheet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Big Lots, Inc. files any petition for bankruptcy protection in the United States, under any chapter of the United States Bankruptcy Code, before October 1, 2024. The question will resolves on the filing of such a petition, not on whether any bankruptcy protection is granted by a court. If no such petition is filed by that date, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nOnly petitions filed by Big Lots, Inc., or a renamed business entity comprising substantially all of its business (as judged by moderators) as of July 22, 2024, will count towards resolution; any bankruptcy protection petitions filed by subsidiary entities or spin-off companies will not count.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27260, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163712.649488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163712.649488, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5869971660147257 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061036111849600824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05855889144026411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.7095347889677784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1045235772690511, 0.0, 0.14553101156619458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 1.141439925072126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.540730004128751, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.09122295403992013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.0, 0.8369676642638437, 0.0, 1.5123779954532046, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.15306473011963811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6942603078565506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163712.682383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163712.682383, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5453302001824454, 0.4546697998175546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Big Lots, Inc. runs a chain of discount stores selling items for the home. 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In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Netflix has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Netflix appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Netflix is not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"\"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\"\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \"\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Netflix. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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In recent years Netflix has had sporadic layoffs, generally numbered in the hundreds, such as in 2023 and 2022" }, { "id": 27258, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jeff-bezos-be-the-1st-or-2nd-richest-person-in-the-world-on-september-30-2024-according-to-forbes", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:04.671371Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.011107Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27258, "title": "Will Jeff Bezos be the 1st or 2nd richest person in the world on September 30, 2024, according to Forbes?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T20:04:04.671371Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T22:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 16, 2024, Jeff Bezos is ranked second on the list, with $209.7 B. Elon Musk is first, with $252.3B. Bernard Arnault & family is ranked third, with $177.4 B.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if according to the [Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List](https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#482980403d78) Jeff Bezos is in first or second place on September 30, 2024. Otherwise, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If there is a tie for second, this resolves as **No**. If Bezos is in a tie for first, this will resolve as **Yes**. If the resolution source is unavailable on September 30, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until October 6, 2024, at which point this question will be **annulled**. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27258, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163760.619874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163760.619874, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.715592841664334 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0693440983958264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26217309142799516, 0.0, 1.9485916383025188, 0.2569648587427511, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 1.038927024337612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 2.1023705116506393, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724163760.652303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724163760.652303, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3028254169086062, 0.6971745830913938 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 16, 2024, Jeff Bezos is ranked second on the list, with $209.7 B. 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This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the 7-day average confirmed mpox cases worldwide, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/mpox), exceeds the peak 7-day average confirmed mpox cases worldwide during the 2022-2023 period.\n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27249, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817755.550618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.662 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817755.550618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.475 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.662 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.525, 0.475 ], "means": [ 0.48397454175257704 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0992470275527865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10630646873163355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.43403140264545714, 0.0, 1.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5355656423129134, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5056509840383616, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.4836408376922275, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817755.595975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817755.595975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7353504277115621, 0.26464957228843783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak, caused by the Clade II variant, resulted in a total of 66,387 confirmed cases worldwide between the declaration of a [Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/monkeypox) on July 23, 2022, and its termination on May 10, 2023.\n\nIn August 2024, concerns have been raised about a [new outbreak of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna1654240), this time involving the more severe Clade I variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27248, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-secretary-of-the-us-department-of-health-and-human-services-declare-a-public-health-emergency-for-mpox-monkeypox-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:45:01.302951Z", "published_at": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.023294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27248, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:45:01.302951Z", "open_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024. \n\nEither a new determination that a public health emergency exists as a consequence of mpox or a renewal of a previous one would count.\n\nThe resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page. \n\nIf there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for mpox within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27248, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817746.251479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817746.251479, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4862501006788717 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1825148056242262, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.3937762559534268, 1.077498072303674, 0.0, 0.6852489480560335, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8619038107682248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9938436225390226, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678877441112295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723817746.303087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723817746.303087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5436473411947342, 0.45635265880526577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27241, "title": "Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-keir-starmers-approval-rating-as-prime-minister-of-the-united-kingdom-be-less-than-60-on-september-18-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:53.175083Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.217222Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27241, "title": "Will Keir Starmer's approval rating as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be less than 60 on September 18, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:53.175083Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-27T18:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a \"national renewal\" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.\n\nStarmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 60 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "- If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.\n\n- The \"Smooth\" version of the polling data should be used, not the \"Kalman\" version, unless it is no longer available.\n\n- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. 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Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a \"national renewal\" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.\n\nStarmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if the numerical value of Keir Starmer's approval rating (percentage of respondents who approve of his performance as Prime Minister) is less than 40 on September 18, 2024, as reported by the [Politico Poll of Polls](https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/united-kingdom/#starmer-approval) when first accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "- If Keir Starmer is not the Prime Minister of the UK at any point between August 13, 2024, and September 18, 2024, inclusive, this question is **Annulled**.\n\n- The \"Smooth\" version of the polling data should be used, not the \"Kalman\" version, unless it is no longer available.\n\n- The Politico Poll of Polls is an aggregate of recent polls from major, reputable polling organizations in the UK. If the Politico Poll of Polls data for September 18 is not available before October 4, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27239, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904145.923485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904145.923485, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.521 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6005160332874955 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7217425342095688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1800454523024431, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29823886049968595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5470781476703563, 0.0, 0.8728672596022924, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 1.2321593921956744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9701704703457712, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0126701826628484, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904145.95367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904145.95367, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5073024344201219, 0.4926975655798781 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Keir Starmer recently became the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom after a [landslide victory](https://apnews.com/article/uk-election-keir-starmer-profile-labour-e98d16e0810273f6041b61747e084aae) by the Labour Party, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Despite Labour securing a robust majority with more than 410 seats in Parliament, the election saw a fragmented vote and the lowest turnout in years, indicating a deeply dissatisfied nation. Starmer has promised a \"national renewal\" and a return of politics to public service. However, the low percentage of votes garnered by Labour and the emergence of the Reform U.K. party as a significant political force pose challenges for his administration.\n\nStarmer's initial months in office will be crucial in addressing these issues and gaining the public's support. His government's performance and handling of pressing issues will significantly influence his approval rating." }, { "id": 27238, "title": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usd-be-worth-0935-eur-or-more-at-the-close-of-trading-on-any-day-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:52.831730Z", "published_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.515044Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27238, "title": "Will the USD be worth 0.935 EUR or more at the close of trading on any day before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T19:38:52.831730Z", "open_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T20:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-17T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:\n\n- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.\n\n- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.\n\n- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.\n\n- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.\n\n- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.\n\n- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.\n\nAs of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Dollar (USD) to Euro EUR rate reaches 0.935 or higher at the close of any trading day after August 13, 2024 and before October 1, 2024, according to closing prices posted at [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/).\n\nOtherwise, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Specifically, we will be using the \"Close\" price for each day, posted under Yahoo Finance's history for *USD/EUR (USDEUR=X)*.\n\nIf Yahoo Finance shuts down or stops tracking this indicator, Metaculus admins will resolve the question based on other reliable sources that measure this key rate, at their discretion.\n\nThis question will only resolve based on closing prices, not intraday prices.", "post_id": 27238, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904164.231564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19375 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904164.231564, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.19375 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.3271980427606121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.07560105912010007, 0.22270172488500573, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 1.3694927869046238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.22550165513699943, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1526470900215915, 0.0, 0.6488429278764145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646728462135155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.774808361693902, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723904164.265513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723904164.265513, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7597222485084151, 0.2402777514915849 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The value of the USD (United States Dollar) against the EUR (Euro) fluctuates due to various economic factors. Key elements influencing this exchange rate include:\n\n- Interest Rates: Central banks, such as the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the U.S. and the European Central Bank (ECB), adjust interest rates to control inflation and stimulate economic growth. Higher interest rates in the U.S. can attract foreign investment, boosting the USD's value relative to the EUR.\n\n- Economic Data: Indicators like GDP growth, unemployment rates, and inflation impact currency values. Strong economic performance in the U.S. can lead to a stronger USD.\n\n- Political Stability: Political events, such as elections, policy changes, and geopolitical tensions, can affect investor confidence and currency values.\n\n- Market Sentiment: Traders' perceptions and speculative activities in the foreign exchange market can cause short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate.\n\n- Trade Balances: A country's trade balance (exports vs. imports) influences currency demand. A trade surplus in the U.S. can strengthen the USD.\n\n- As of recent years, global events like the COVID-19 pandemic, economic recovery efforts, and geopolitical tensions have caused significant volatility in currency markets.\n\nAs of August 13, 2024, 1 USD ≈ [0.9128 EUR](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/USDEUR%3DX/history/)." }, { "id": 27223, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-ukrainian-forces-capture-rylsk-russia-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.789268Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.775386Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27223, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.789268Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.\n\nTo determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW. \n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply. \n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27223, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731427.011756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731427.011756, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4581509948046196 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.35238137660659535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.10223706135307076, 0.12528390725270072, 0.0, 0.7250996862965486, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 1.7397304897849648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.249449430858038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8728179530395457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.8379487954001852, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3215627830808819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731427.05727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731427.05727, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8137527978533059, 0.18624720214669416 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)" }, { "id": 27222, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine have no offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraine-have-no-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.685345Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.923185Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27222, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731398.259662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6559999999999999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731398.259662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6559999999999999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.41666666666666663, 0.5833333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.5509896676731068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8148034378918425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2682850769829743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12830080476146405, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.6403200895653883, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8033792647762161, 1.1377014936730925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25892000231442364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.269038406774733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05058860589149875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -26.3034405833794, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -26.3034405833794 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731398.311628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731398.311628, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.47708303000468333, 0.5229169699953167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27221, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory not include Kursk Oblast, but include at least 1 other oblast?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraines-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory-not-include-kursk-oblast-but-include-at-least-1-other-oblast", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.583170Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.681457Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27221, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731351.719736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731351.719736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26666666666666666 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.42726247157817854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.5421153138351086, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6088125976878644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12830080476146405, 1.5149763659161426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07135048620690304, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0187036868702393, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995753230734237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8005810331448966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.5009033502140801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.5550107780428799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731351.771603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731351.771603, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.689460930388406, 0.31053906961159405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27220, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and at least 1 other oblast?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraines-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory-include-kursk-oblast-and-at-least-1-other-oblast", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.477128Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.404818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27220, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731369.927838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731369.927838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.47 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.53, 0.47 ], "means": [ 0.4898197331723809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9482389839805913, 0.0, 1.1812557486197341, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.850809046757105, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0555681484137076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22172252320509844, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37925214837934806, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9293106767561476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 8.406426478847456, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 8.406426478847456 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731369.988521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731369.988521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.482552844299866, 0.517447155700134 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27219, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-october-1-2024-will-ukraines-offensives-reaching-at-least-five-miles-into-russian-territory-include-kursk-oblast-and-no-other-oblasts", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.339734Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.444775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27219, "title": "On October 1, 2024, will Ukraine’s offensives reaching at least five miles into Russian territory include Kursk Oblast and no other oblasts?", "created_at": "2024-08-13T17:21:51.339734Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves based on the status of Ukrainian-held territory **that is at least five miles inside of Russia’s borders** on October 1, 2024, as shown on the Institute for the Study of War’s (ISW) [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024. \n\nIn the case of ambiguity regarding the interpretation of the ISW map, Metaculus may consider other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Russian borders” shall mean those shown on the ISW map.\n* “Ukrainian-held territory” includes territory labeled “Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance” or such other labels as ISW may create to indicate the extent of Russian territory held by Ukrainian forces.\n* A five mile border offset will be used to assess the five mile requirement in close cases.", "post_id": 27219, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731343.100239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731343.100239, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5966767942959439 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.044054768405987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 1.0187036868702393, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1015552390035812, 0.7685977471107392, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23530592776195833, 0.7020670829292148, 0.12971309359456562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3780018741471079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731343.15828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731343.15828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45903929178805936, 0.5409607082119406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6th, 2024, Ukraine launched a [significant and unexpected offensive ](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion) into Russia's Kursk Oblast, marking the first major cross-border incursion by Ukrainian regular forces since the onset of the war. Ukrainian troops have advanced \"[up to 18 miles (30km)](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo)\" into Russian territory, capturing nearly 1,000 square kilometers, including [at least 28 settlements](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo). This operation has led to the evacuation of over [100,000 people](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240812-russia-orders-evacuations-in-border-region-of-belgorod-amid-ukrainian-offensive) in the affected Russian regions, with both sides [preparing](https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/08/11/ukrainian-troops-are-digging-trenches-in-russias-kursk-oblast-its-a-sign-they-plan-to-stay/) for prolonged confrontations." }, { "id": 27209, "title": "Will Ukrainian forces capture Rylsk, Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Ukr captures Rylsk by October 1, 2024?", "slug": "ukr-captures-rylsk-by-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T23:14:52.980312Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.646394Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, 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"2024-10-01T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T15:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T15:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War [reports in its interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) that Ukraine controls the territory of the main administrative building in Rylsk, Russia.\n\nTo determine whether a Ukrainian capture of Rylsk has happened:\n\n1. Go to the Institute for the Study of War and AEI Critical Threats Project map page, [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375).\n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste this address into the search box: Ulitsa Karla Libknekhta, 21, Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, Russia, 307370\n\nThis question resolves as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Ukrainian-controlled at any point before October 1, 2024. Generally this will mean shades of blue, including but not limited to \"Claimed Limit of Ukrainian Advance.\" Please note two things:\n\n1. Due to the nature of how ISW is currently mapping the area, this will include areas of *claimed* Ukrainian control and advances, not just areas assessed by ISW. \n2. If ISW offers new labels or descriptions to indicate Ukraine's territorial control or advances in the area, those will also apply. \n\nIf the location is not marked as being under Ukrainian control at any point before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map, currently located [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27209, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754937.098361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754937.098361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 89, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.004065922037972924 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.852767447496364, 3.2647851547070594, 0.03693063425353361, 0.00135283348636685, 0.03225826040151549, 0.025967017105719338, 0.0, 0.001934940675477372, 0.15195867094493953, 0.0, 0.0004519539225959827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000590830648692911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000926134218651555, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025545491804088117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.596742987241441, "coverage": 0.9996518005691996, "baseline_score": 96.86855636379086, "spot_peer_score": 14.974209410445381, "peer_archived_score": 6.596742987241441, "baseline_archived_score": 96.86855636379086, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.974209410445381 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727754937.144019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727754937.144019, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launched an incursion into Russian territory, making rapid advances and occupying roughly 1,000 km within a week: \n\n<img src=\"https://www.understandingwar.org/sites/default/files/UAF%20Kursk%20Incursion%20August%2012%2C%202024.png\" />\n\n[Rylsk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rylsk,_Russia), population 15 thousand, is the administrative center of the Rylsky District bordering where the main incursion has taken place at the launch of this question. Shortly after the Ukrainian incursion, Russia [began evacuating](https://www.voanews.com/a/russia-launches-new-operation-to-halt-advancing-ukrainian-troops/7737304.html) civilians from the town. This question asks about the main municipal building in Rylsk: \n\n<img src=\"https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/p/AF1QipNjBNcA-butBKuqfy6JIpXl_dAjeQBiMRpqGWc=w408-h582-k-no\" /> \n\nCapturing this building would be a strong indicator that Ukraine not only is making rapid territorial gains (with Russian forces unable to defend this area) but that logistically Ukraine is planning for a possible prolonged occupation because it is intending to govern the area, rather than making a quick raid and withdrawal.\n\nSee also:\n\n- [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) daily updates\n- Wikipedia [August 2024 Kursk Oblast incursion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion)" }, { "id": 27208, "title": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?", "short_title": "2024 Olympics Gymnastics Medal Dispute?", "url_title": "2024 Olympics Gymnastics Medal Dispute?", "slug": "2024-olympics-gymnastics-medal-dispute", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T18:15:25.411043Z", "published_at": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-08T15:30:01.010644Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 27208, "title": "Will the decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the US to Romania be overturned before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T18:15:25.411043Z", "open_time": "2024-08-20T17:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-23T17:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-23T17:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her the bronze medal.\n\nRomania, whose gymnasts Ana Barbosu and Sabrina Maneca-Voinea finished fourth and fifth respectively after the inquiry, protested the decision, claiming that Chiles' inquiry was filed too late. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) agreed with Romania's protest and vacated Chiles' inquiry, officially revising her score and placing her back in fifth place.\n\nAs a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would reallocate the bronze medal to Ana Bǎrbosu. However, USA Gymnastics has [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/g-s1-16509/us-gymnast-jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-return) the CAS ruling, submitting video evidence that allegedly proves Chiles' inquiry was filed within the allowed time frame.\n\n[CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/sport/jordan-chiles-bronze-olympics-controversy-explained/index.html) that the CAS does not have authority to revisit the case.\n\nA [CAS Bulletin](https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin202_2011.pdf) published in 2011 explores the issue of CAS appeals in more detail in the section \"Appeals against Arbitral Awards by the CAS\", starting on page 19 (pdf page 22). The section describes that CAS appeals are heard by the Swiss Federal Tribunal, which is essentially the supreme court of Switzerland, the particular conditions under which an appeal is typically heard, and says the following about the frequency and success of appeals:\n\n>Nowadays the CAS assumes that an appeal will be filed against approximately 10% of its arbitral awards. However, the success rate of these appeals is low. Since the CAS was established in 1984 only five appeals against CAS arbitral awards have succeeded. On average only 1% of all appeals against CAS arbitral awards were successful in 2009 and 2010. If one expresses the number of successful appeals as a percentage of all of the arbitral awards that have so far been delivered by the CAS (1984 – 2010), the success rate is 0.3%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that the Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS)'s decision to reallocate the bronze medal in the women's floor exercise at the 2024 Paris Olympics from the Jordan Chiles of the United States to Ana Bǎrbosu of Romania has been overturned on appeal.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if no such decision has been announced before January 1, 2026, or if before January 1, 2026, a higher court hears an appeal and announces that it has upheld the original decision, and credible sources report that no higher level of appeal remains.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27208, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762615789.991174, "end_time": 1763297254.060289, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762615789.991174, "end_time": 1763297254.060289, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.17682742591490916 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9994259228572495, 0.9679750800682101, 1.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288470.029004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288470.029004, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9501108016090724, 0.049889198390927654 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the women's floor exercise final at the 2024 Paris Olympics, Jordan Chiles of the United States initially finished in fifth place. However, her coach filed an inquiry regarding her difficulty score, which resulted in Chiles being awarded an additional tenth of a point, moving her into third place and earning her the bronze medal.\n\nRomania, whose gymnasts Ana Barbosu and Sabrina Maneca-Voinea finished fourth and fifth respectively after the inquiry, protested the decision, claiming that Chiles' inquiry was filed too late. The Court of Arbitration for Sport (CAS) agreed with Romania's protest and vacated Chiles' inquiry, officially revising her score and placing her back in fifth place.\n\nAs a result, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) announced that it would reallocate the bronze medal to Ana Bǎrbosu. However, USA Gymnastics has [challenged](https://www.npr.org/2024/08/11/g-s1-16509/us-gymnast-jordan-chiles-bronze-medal-return) the CAS ruling, submitting video evidence that allegedly proves Chiles' inquiry was filed within the allowed time frame.\n\n[CNN reports](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/12/sport/jordan-chiles-bronze-olympics-controversy-explained/index.html) that the CAS does not have authority to revisit the case.\n\nA [CAS Bulletin](https://www.tas-cas.org/fileadmin/user_upload/Bulletin202_2011.pdf) published in 2011 explores the issue of CAS appeals in more detail in the section \"Appeals against Arbitral Awards by the CAS\", starting on page 19 (pdf page 22). The section describes that CAS appeals are heard by the Swiss Federal Tribunal, which is essentially the supreme court of Switzerland, the particular conditions under which an appeal is typically heard, and says the following about the frequency and success of appeals:\n\n>Nowadays the CAS assumes that an appeal will be filed against approximately 10% of its arbitral awards. However, the success rate of these appeals is low. Since the CAS was established in 1984 only five appeals against CAS arbitral awards have succeeded. On average only 1% of all appeals against CAS arbitral awards were successful in 2009 and 2010. If one expresses the number of successful appeals as a percentage of all of the arbitral awards that have so far been delivered by the CAS (1984 – 2010), the success rate is 0.3%." }, { "id": 27203, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?", "url_title": "HHS mpox public health emergency--Oct 1 2024?", "slug": "hhs-mpox-public-health-emergency-oct-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:52:55.102483Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.439548Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15880, "name": "Mpox outbreak", "slug": "mpox", "emoji": "🦠🩺", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27203, "title": "Will the Secretary of the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for mpox (monkeypox) before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:52:55.102483Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) declares that a public health emergency (PHE) specifically exists for mpox (also known as monkeypox), in a declaration made after August 12, 2024 and before October 1, 2024. \n\nEither a new determination that a public health emergency exists as a consequence of mpox or a renewal of a previous one would count.\n\nThe resolution source is HHS's [PHE Declarations page](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/default.aspx) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if there is such a PHE declaration that for some reason does not appear on that page. \n\nIf there is no such HHS declaration of a PHE for mpox within the timeframe listed above, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27203, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687403.114975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687403.114975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.03901281127790788 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.52604972641203, 2.301101924634601, 1.2420024466554442, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0457545054247281, 1.0629778213002157, 0.3551836243544548, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.9880952075289967, 0.0, 0.19080638481169374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16311972700051347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.254183783738204, "coverage": 0.9978987255423354, "baseline_score": 85.36093968688773, "spot_peer_score": 14.705182706973037, "peer_archived_score": 7.254183783738204, "baseline_archived_score": 85.36093968688773, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.705182706973037 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687403.158184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687403.158184, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [HHS](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/Public-Health-Emergency-Declaration.aspx): \n\n>The Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) may, under section 319 of the Public Health Service (PHS) Act, determine that: a) a disease or disorder presents a public health emergency (PHE); or b) that a public health emergency, including significant outbreaks of infectious disease or bioterrorist attacks, otherwise exists.\n\nThe first confirmed case in the [last US mpox outbreak](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022%E2%80%932023_mpox_outbreak_in_the_United_States) was May 17, 2022. HHS made a PHE declaration on [August 4, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/monkeypox-4Aug22.aspx). This was renewed on [November 2, 2022](https://aspr.hhs.gov/legal/PHE/Pages/mpx-renewal-2Nov2022.aspx).\n\nIn July 2024, a new outbreak of Clade I mpox, which causes more severe illness than the Clade II strain of the 2022-23 outbreak, exploded in the Democratic Republic of Congo and [exceeding](https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2024/08/09/mpox-africa-congo-who-emergency/) the toll of cases in the previous outbreak. At the time of this question, the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention [is on the verge of](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) declaring a continent-wide public health emergency regarding the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27200, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cdc-confirm-a-case-of-clade-i-mpox-in-a-us-resident-before-august-23-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:35:33.137322Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.948171Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27200, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T13:35:33.137322Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-26T20:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Clade I mpox (also referred to by CDC as monkeypox virus or MPXV) in a resident of the United States on or before August 23, 2024. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Clade I mpox in U.S. residents before 11:59 PM EDT on August 23, 2024.", "fine_print": "- Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count.\n\n- Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered.\n\n- Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation.\n\n- For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).\n\n- Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27200, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731459.123861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731459.123861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.054000000000000006 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18754611631801252 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.24311673443421403, 1.074388148579677, 0.014369596090439076, 0.03268672417676853, 0.27308960725456716, 1.4732721993563862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.9541417385520485, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 2.152872312398836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4872105671698428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1083449769120332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731459.16996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731459.16996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.951872310978983, 0.048127689021017044 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%." } ] }
