Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2660
{ "count": 6352, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2680", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2640", "results": [ { "id": 27198, "title": "Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?", "short_title": "China Negative Foreign Investment Q3/4 2024", "url_title": "China Negative Foreign Investment Q3/4 2024", "slug": "china-negative-foreign-investment-q34-2024", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-12T11:37:47.056863Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.027849Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27198, "title": "Will China experience a second quarter of negative foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-12T11:37:47.056863Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-17T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-17T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-02-12T00:26:55.140832Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-09T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In what would be the first time since 1990, China faces the prospect of a net annual outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (otherwise known as inbound foreign direct investment) this year; this comes as FDI for the second quarter of 2024 [dropped by $15 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) exceeding the only other negative quarter in recent times of $12 billion set in Q3 2023.\r\n\r\n[Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) summarises the causes of the China's foreign investment woes:\r\n\r\n>Foreign investment into China has slumped in recent years after hitting a record $344 billion in 2021. The slowdown in the economy and rising geopolitical tensions has led some companies to reduce their exposure, and the rapid shift to electric vehicles in China also caught foreign car firms off guard, prompting some to withdraw or scale back their investments.\r\n\r\nFDI in China is in stark contrast to China's outbound investment, as per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas):\r\n\r\n>Chinese outbound investment also hit a record, with firms sending $71 billion overseas in the second quarter, up more than 80% from the $39 billion in the same period last year.\r\n\r\n*Will China experience a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024?*\r\n\r\n__________\r\n\r\nHistorical FDI data can be found on [TradingEconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve \"Yes\" if China experiences a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024 as reported by the [Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China](https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/wap/index.html). If this does not happen, then this question will resolve \"No\".", "fine_print": "- Data from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China quoted by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) will be sufficient for resolution.\r\n\r\n- If China ceases to release data on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 27198, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732180834.187863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732180834.187863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.64 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.721044800774847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 30.424835409111726, "peer_score": 0.5386818447227834, "coverage": 0.7960113829278215, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9959620812482969, "spot_peer_score": -18.67366323772948, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 30.424835409111726, "peer_archived_score": 0.5386818447227834, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -18.67366323772948, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287029.179757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287029.179757, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38259680544328634, 0.6174031945567137 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 20, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In what would be the first time since 1990, China faces the prospect of a net annual outflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) (otherwise known as inbound foreign direct investment) this year; this comes as FDI for the second quarter of 2024 [dropped by $15 billion](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) exceeding the only other negative quarter in recent times of $12 billion set in Q3 2023.\r\n\r\n[Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas) summarises the causes of the China's foreign investment woes:\r\n\r\n>Foreign investment into China has slumped in recent years after hitting a record $344 billion in 2021. The slowdown in the economy and rising geopolitical tensions has led some companies to reduce their exposure, and the rapid shift to electric vehicles in China also caught foreign car firms off guard, prompting some to withdraw or scale back their investments.\r\n\r\nFDI in China is in stark contrast to China's outbound investment, as per [Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-12/foreign-investors-are-pulling-record-amount-of-money-from-china?srnd=homepage-americas):\r\n\r\n>Chinese outbound investment also hit a record, with firms sending $71 billion overseas in the second quarter, up more than 80% from the $39 billion in the same period last year.\r\n\r\n*Will China experience a second quarter of negative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in 2024?*\r\n\r\n__________\r\n\r\nHistorical FDI data can be found on [TradingEconomics.com](https://tradingeconomics.com/china/foreign-direct-investment)" }, { "id": 27191, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine withdraws from Kursk before Dec 2024?", "url_title": "Ukraine withdraws from Kursk before Dec 2024?", "slug": "ukraine-withdraws-from-kursk-before-dec-2024", "author_id": 145845, "author_username": "christian.q.chung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-11T19:03:29.437994Z", "published_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.194591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27191, "title": "Will Ukraine withdraw from Kursk before December 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-11T19:03:29.437994Z", "open_time": "2024-08-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-01T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T20:58:35.626756Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Ukraine no longer holds any territory in the Kursk Oblast according to either [DeepStateMap](https://deepstatemap.live/en) or the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/publications) at any point before December 1, 2024. This question will resolve negatively otherwise.", "fine_print": "If Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast at any point but captures more territory afterwards, this question will still resolve positively.\n\nIf either DeepStateMap or the Institute for the Study of War reports that Ukraine holds no territory in the Kursk Oblast, the question will resolve positively, even if they do not agree.", "post_id": 27191, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733001774.35476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733001774.35476, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.01789289359120732 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.102434667390807, 2.6755895647271917, 0.0, 0.36220081235561724, 0.0, 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"peer_archived_score": 41.61759185353843, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 90.02325419178679 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287443.524052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287443.524052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9763064226934304, 0.02369357730656957 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 6, 2024, [Ukraine sent troops to Russia's Kursk Oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_2024_Kursk_Oblast_incursion), advancing 10 kilometers and capturing over 100 square kilometers within days. \n\nAfter 5 days, the situation has appeared to stabilize, though the fate of the incursion remains uncertain." }, { "id": 27178, "title": "Will the Africa CDC declare a public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) before September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Africa CDC declare PHECS by Sep 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Will Africa CDC declare PHECS by Sep 1, 2024?", "slug": "will-africa-cdc-declare-phecs-by-sep-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-11T11:13:34.106562Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.457597Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T15:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-13T15:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", 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null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27178, "title": "Will the Africa CDC declare a public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) before September 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-11T11:13:34.106562Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-13T15:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-13T15:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-30T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T15:12:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 17, 2022, amid the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak at the time, the Executive Council of the African Union passed a statute enabling the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/)) to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS). The process works similarly to the World Health Organization's public health emergency of international concern (upon with Africa previously relied), but the ability to declare a PHECS was seen as important to reduce Africa's dependence on the WHO and have more autonomy in its public health. ([Source](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanmic/article/PIIS2666-5247(22)00230-0/fulltext))\n\nTo date, the Africa CDC has not declared a PHECS. However, with the recent surge in Clade I mpox cases in the continent, and with children making up the majority of cases and deaths, the agency [may be poised](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) to declare a PHECS soon.\n\nSee also: [Science - Africa poised to declare continentwide emergency alarm for mpox outbreak](https://www.science.org/content/article/africa-poised-declare-continentwide-emergency-alarm-mpox-outbreak)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Africa CDC) declares a new public health emergency of continental security (PHECS) before September 1, 2024.\n\nIf this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27178, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723561775.875462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723561775.875462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.93 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.8274316016054957 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 1.78972698844193 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723561775.911193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723561775.911193, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17533530471488623, 0.8246646952851138 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 17, 2022, amid the mpox (monkeypox) outbreak at the time, the Executive Council of the African Union passed a statute enabling the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ([Africa CDC](https://africacdc.org/)) to declare a Public Health Emergency of Continental Security (PHECS). 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However, with the recent surge in Clade I mpox cases in the continent, and with children making up the majority of cases and deaths, the agency [may be poised](https://www.npr.org/sections/goats-and-soda/2024/08/09/nx-s1-5068572/mpox-virus-emergency-africa) to declare a PHECS soon.\n\nSee also: [Science - Africa poised to declare continentwide emergency alarm for mpox outbreak](https://www.science.org/content/article/africa-poised-declare-continentwide-emergency-alarm-mpox-outbreak)" }, { "id": 27161, "title": "Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bo-nix-be-the-starting-quarterback-for-the-denver-broncos-in-their-week-4-game-against-the-new-york-jets", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.244173Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.829858Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27161, "title": "Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.244173Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-29T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. 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They can be an ambassador, envoy, minister, or chargé d'affaires. 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null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723732186.669881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6911446611557377, 0.30885533884426225 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Recently, the national security advisor of the Philippines [called for the expulsion](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/philippine-calls-chinese-diplomats-be-expelled-disinformation-2024-05-10/) of Chinese diplomats over the leak of a telephone transcript between a Philippine admiral and Chinese officials, in which a Philippine admiral [informally agreed](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-07/china-threatens-to-release-audio-of-secret-deal-with-philippines) to certain terms about how the Philippine Navy would resupply its personnel stationed in disputed areas. \n\nChina and the Philippines have [overlapping claims](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/territorial-disputes-south-china-sea) to islands in the South China Sea, and in the past several months tensions have been increasing, with China [using](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/south-china-sea-why-are-china-philippines-tensions-heating-up-2024-04-11/) water cannons, collision and ramming tactics, and even a military-grade laser to try to stop the Philippines from resupplying its naval outposts. \n\nFor further background please see [Philippines Considers Expelling Chinese Diplomats After Leaked Transcript](https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/05/10/philippines-considers-expelling-chinese-diplomats-after-leaked-audio-n3788194)." }, { "id": 27159, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-any-reported-human-to-human-transmission-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-globally-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.063013Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.548026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27159, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:01.063013Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T20:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T20:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 27159, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731601.57173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.095 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731601.57173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.095 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.905, 0.095 ], "means": [ 0.12865790993571968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 1.7999582056661585, 0.05048348581855406, 0.7821211939703921, 1.407265826512854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 1.7451655711756486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4812676876136617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7192738719963858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 85.59896973084807, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 85.59896973084807 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731601.602502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731601.602502, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9785498583260235, 0.021450141673976564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally." }, { "id": 27158, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democrats-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.965364Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.623096Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27158, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.965364Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T11:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.", "post_id": 27158, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731515.115137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731515.115137, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20893211938811862 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.38043555332875517, 0.02581358824615143, 0.08192406722053863, 0.8355804261814468, 0.059105746561956225, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 1.0, 1.1544576625840153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8678375946340438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2541856167986318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10227740639521841, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731515.149245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731515.149245, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9260964050367038, 0.07390359496329622 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)" }, { "id": 27157, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-there-be-an-armed-forces-death-in-a-conflict-opposing-china-to-taiwan-the-united-states-the-philippines-or-japan", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:46:00.835687Z", "published_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.417417Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.", "fine_print": "* Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 27157, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731572.719416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.38333333333333336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731572.719416, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.23 ], "centers": [ 0.38333333333333336 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6166666666666667, 0.38333333333333336 ], "means": [ 0.41378658700716076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13053206774429757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9258974666716036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5228813825925474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 1.345432444222118, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.7868265116770632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6570127365556109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238200452096865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5701559873286314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 30.25627700204313, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 30.25627700204313 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723731572.749608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723731572.749608, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8432330848967854, 0.1567669151032146 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory." }, { "id": 27148, "title": "Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?", "short_title": "2024 mpox cases vs. 2022-2023 outbreak", "url_title": "2024 mpox cases vs. 2022-2023 outbreak", "slug": "2024-mpox-cases-vs-2022-2023-outbreak", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:38:42.591816Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.700408Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 48, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15880, "name": "Mpox outbreak", "slug": "mpox", "emoji": "🦠🩺", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27148, "title": "Will the 2024 mpox outbreak exceed the 2022-2023 outbreak in confirmed cases?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:38:42.591816Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-09-02T23:40:35.048727Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-02-10T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak, caused by the Clade II variant, resulted in a total of 66,387 confirmed cases worldwide between the declaration of a [Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/monkeypox) on July 23, 2022, and its termination on May 10, 2023.\n\nIn August 2024, concerns have been raised about a [new outbreak of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna1654240), this time involving the more severe Clade I variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the total number of new confirmed mpox cases worldwide, as reported by [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/mpox), during the 2024 PHEIC period (from the declaration date to the termination date or the question close date, whichever comes first) exceeds 66,387 (the total number of confirmed cases during the 2022-2023 PHEIC period).\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the total number of new confirmed mpox cases worldwide during the 2024 PHEIC period remains at or below 66,387.\nIf no PHEIC is declared for the 2024 mpox outbreak, the question will resolve as \"Ambiguous\".", "fine_print": "- The data used for this question comes from [Our World in Data's mpox dataset](https://ourworldindata.org/mpox), using the \"Confirmed cases\" metric with a \"Cumulative\" frequency.\n\n- The total number of new confirmed cases during the 2024 PHEIC period will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative confirmed cases on the day before the PHEIC declaration from the cumulative confirmed cases on the PHEIC termination date or the question close date, whichever comes first.\n\n- The question will close 180 days after the WHO declares a PHEIC for the 2024 mpox outbreak, or on December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM EDT, whichever comes first.\n\n- Confirmed cases from all mpox variants (including Clade I and Clade II) will be counted towards the total during the 2024 PHEIC period.\n\n- If Our World in Data stops updating mpox case numbers or becomes unavailable, an alternative reputable data source may be used, as determined by the question administrators.", "post_id": 27148, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1738678808.911096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1738678808.911096, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "centers": [ 0.014 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.986, 0.014 ], "means": [ 0.060516579575795065 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.075275816375083, 2.5235608397187685, 1.5506534361945985, 0.5029882706621958, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.27000623468864854, 0.18409965808495726, 0.31769614118409123, 0.1298586955044776, 0.22900802253318142, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.1922099044340837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23157428610443917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 27.945596069390604, "peer_score": 8.636317109727377, "coverage": 0.35657980381238746, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9986524493950231, "spot_peer_score": 27.663545964727053, "spot_baseline_score": 41.5758666522498, "baseline_archived_score": 27.945596069390604, "peer_archived_score": 8.636317109727377, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.663545964727053, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 41.5758666522498 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289369.812789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289369.812789, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9509458610828874, 0.049054138917112605 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 134, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2022-2023 mpox (monkeypox) outbreak, caused by the Clade II variant, resulted in a total of 66,387 confirmed cases worldwide between the declaration of a [Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO)](https://www.who.int/europe/emergencies/situations/monkeypox) on July 23, 2022, and its termination on May 10, 2023.\n\nIn August 2024, concerns have been raised about a [new outbreak of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna1654240), this time involving the more severe Clade I variant. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the WHO have issued alerts and are considering declaring another PHEIC. This question aims to compare the scale of the mpox outbreak." }, { "id": 27141, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-crimean-bridge-be-hit-with-an-attack-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.587261Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.595824Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27141, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.587261Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T16:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after May 2, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.", "fine_print": "* The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.\n* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.\n* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.\n* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.\n* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.", "post_id": 27141, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644942.917105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644942.917105, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6016196877955419 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0379939450768347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7716489706412398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.2635521314790337, 0.5067066435354666, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0865030855966002, 0.0, 0.8195499865503891, 0.0, 0.5297110963009741, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3972782922782665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.32619880252471406, 1.236031891520226, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3736233805311019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644942.952539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644942.952539, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.508523294253036, 0.49147670574696406 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7." }, { "id": 27140, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-september-20-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.504621Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.463680Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27140, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS) \n be higher Year-over-Year on September 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.504621Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for September 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on September 20, 2023.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 27140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644949.960229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6116666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644949.960229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.6116666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3883333333333333, 0.6116666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.6091199730801982 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12377442688140071, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 1.0070461233753403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8275544534763768, 0.3807460299076555, 1.4809786573605919, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.09103305858692605, 0.080917342808261, 0.31964760159434596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8852090603170284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0404560018292481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 29.081756234733195, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 29.081756234733195 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644949.992012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644949.992012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5500799613935984, 0.4499200386064016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" }, { "id": 27138, "title": "On September 17, 2024, will Nvidia's market capitalization be larger than Apple's?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-september-17-2024-will-nvidias-market-capitalization-be-larger-than-apples", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.338138Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.313227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T19:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T19:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, on September 17, 2024, the market cap of Nvidia is greater than that of Apple, according to [Companies Market Cap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/), when checked by Metaculus at approximately 4 PM EDT (8 PM UTC).", "fine_print": "* If Companies Market Cap is unavailable or if there are reasonable concerns as to the accuracy of its data at resolution time, Metaculus may consider other credible sources to resolve this question.", "post_id": 27138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644962.58142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644962.58142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4039532197800813 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6569109869013362, 0.0, 0.5830692761263615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5371335281250627, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1519363722042177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 2.0954410390513143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.6925992694866288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3532283704349626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644962.608805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644962.608805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7494386249141187, 0.25056137508588133 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since late 2022, Nvidia Corporation has experienced nearly 10x growth in market capitalization, driven by its [dominance in the AI chip market](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidias-ai-chip-dominance-continue-210200974.html). Nvidia's GPUs are critical in the development of large language models, and are highly sought after by major tech companies like OpenAI, Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet.\n\nOn May 22nd, Nvidia released [impressive Q1 financial results](https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-first-quarter-fiscal-2025#:~:text=NVIDIA%20(NASDAQ%3A%20NVDA)%20today,262%25%20from%20a%20year%20ago.) and simultaneously announced a 10:1 stock split and increase to its dividend, sending its stock price to new all-time highs." }, { "id": 27137, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-200-benin-bronzes-go-from-the-british-museum-to-nigeria-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.248067Z", "published_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.148975Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27137, "title": "Will at least 200 Benin Bronzes go from the British Museum to Nigeria before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:41.248067Z", "open_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves as Yes if at least 200 Benin bronzes that were formerly owned by the British Museum physically return to Nigeria before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644989.175104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644989.175104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1501399374802509 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.87003967742933, 0.016590897335947853, 2.2661810964265126, 0.515444567933963, 0.9166130681044695, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.6620090497564879, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.32804471757684245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.247886957575702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2595727198023807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723644989.20339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723644989.20339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9556942845306903, 0.04430571546930975 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Benin, in present-day Nigeria, was a powerful and wealthy state that had trade relations with the Portuguese since the 15th century. Benin traded ivory, gum, pepper, and cotton cloth for the Portuguese copper, brass, and other metals. In the 17th century, Benin's Oba (king) began raiding and trading for slaves from neighboring kingdoms. Benin became one of the major hubs of the slave trade in West Africa, along with Dahomey and Oyo.\n\nAfter the slave trade was abolished by Britain in 1807, Benin faced several challenges and changes. The British navy tried to suppress the illegal slave trade by patrolling the coast and intercepting slave ships. This disrupted Benin's economy and trade relations with other African states and Europe. Benin also had to deal with internal conflicts and rebellions from some of its vassal states that wanted more autonomy or independence. Benin tried to resist British colonialism by maintaining its sovereignty and culture, but it was eventually defeated by a British punitive expedition in 1897 that sacked and burned the city, looted its treasures and artworks, and deposed its Oba. Benin became part of the British protectorate of Nigeria until it gained its independence in 1960.\n\nThe Benin Bronzes were a collection of brass plaques, sculptures, and other objects looted from Benin. The bronzes are notable for their intricate and detailed designs, which often depict historical events, royal figures, and other aspects of Benin culture and history. The collection is considered to be one of the greatest examples of African art and craftsmanship, and it is highly valued by museums and collectors around the world.\n\n[According to Richard Assheton](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-returning-the-benin-bronzes-is-so-complicated-j2m8ffz23),\n\n> Colonial powers initially refused to believe an African civilisation had produced these stunning works. Today, more than 900 lie in the British Museum, and others in museums and private collections all over the world.\n\n> ...\n\n> The British Museum ... has refused [to transfer away ownership of any of the bronzes], saying it is bound by law not to give away its collections." }, { "id": 27136, "title": "Will Robert F. 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Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.958599Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before September 24, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.\n\nHowever, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.\n\nAny revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.", "post_id": 27136, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558786.506388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558786.506388, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.23569241468706498 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.1510151093966846, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 2.250510301113726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.596997404391175, 2.1439545119058243, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4532733525755623, 0.9990648565746569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.44111771138281664, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.0, 0.8935296876528716, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09622124116773499, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -132.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -132.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558786.532118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558786.532118, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9118199490761758, 0.08818005092382424 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates." }, { "id": 27135, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-google-or-alphabet", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.870211Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.611437Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27135, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Google or Alphabet?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.870211Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T23:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T23:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Google is most recently listed in July 2024, with the blurb saying, \"Is reportedly making large cuts globally across several of its Cloud teams, including teams focused on sustainability, consulting and partner engineering.\" Google has also been mentioned in May, April, and January.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Google (or Alphabet) has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Google or Alphabet appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Google or Alphabet are not listed as having a layoff event under those months, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "As the parent company of Google, Alphabet is an acceptable synonym for Google. Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No.\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Google or Alphabet. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. So for example, a question on Microsoft must specifically mention Microsoft, and a layoff event at LinkedIn will not count for purposes of this question (unless the subheading mentions Microsoft), even though LinkedIn is owned by Microsoft.\n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. 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It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on September 30, 2024 is higher than that on August 30, 2024.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 27134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558611.768509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558611.768509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5707791776045299 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.920569728684799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25501931763342345, 0.5871501447426131, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 0.0, 0.9179310878176989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1700083790896842, 0.6531762481724939, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7331518236558839, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.5457812878195709, 0.0, 1.1268079601448757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8464681131236458, 0.0, 0.7406056878924394, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.4977796731925345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 20.163386116965043, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 20.163386116965043 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558611.798183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558611.798183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.45020947436043934, 0.5497905256395607 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. 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Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy." }, { "id": 27133, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-donald-trump-debate-the-democratic-nominee-for-president-more-than-once-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.696666Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.478547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27133, "title": "Will Donald Trump debate the Democratic nominee for president more than once before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.696666Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the number of formal, live debates held between Donald Trump and the Democratic nominee for President before October 1, 2024 is greater than one. If the number is zero or 1, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "- The debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden held on June 27, 2024 only counts if Biden is the Democratic nominee.\n- A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n- A debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n- A debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n- Alternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n- A formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 27133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723559128.44198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723559128.44198, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.49420263685291255 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6531762481724939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07846476248633236, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6103993193348778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7455436964826374, 0.0, 0.24849146739470301, 0.4532733525755623, 0.0, 0.19972583694426888, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3690229750851059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6291580673904869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13482771095250784, 0.0, 0.07290041733962924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8227776208274011, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 1.0793678051504876, 1.4688333512867893, 0.0, 0.2761168848762875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08397709005035515, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05390754280524653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723559128.4844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723559128.4844, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6467421980232706, 0.35325780197672946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "While typically US presidential election debates are organized by the [Commission on Presidential Debates](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commission_on_Presidential_Debates#:~:text=The%20CPD%20sponsors%20and%20produces,all%20general%20election%20presidential%20debates.), in the 2024 election cycle Donald Trump and Joe Biden agreed to bypass the commission, agreeing to two debates. \n\nBiden performed poorly at the first debate, [saying](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/05/politics/joe-biden-abc-interview/index.html) \"I had a bad night.\" On July 21, 2024, Biden announced he would no longer seek reelection.\n\nThe second debate between Trump and Biden was scheduled for September 10, 2024, to be hosted by ABC News. However, according to [Deadline Hollywood](https://deadline.com/2024/07/trump-debate-kamala-harris-abc-news-1236017141/), these plans have been thrown into question in the wake of Biden dropping out, with Trump saying on Truth Social, \"I think the Debate, with whomever the Radical Left Democrats choose, should be held on FoxNews, rather than very biased ABC.\"" }, { "id": 27132, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-iran-carry-out-a-deadly-attack-within-israel-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.574767Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.510908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 37, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27132, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T20:28:40.574767Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before October 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 27132, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37799999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37799999999999995 ], "centers": [ 0.42 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5800000000000001, 0.42 ], "means": [ 0.4693695340780091 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2230884754427727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41205019373819135, 0.0, 0.021350191862830815, 0.07290041733962924, 0.09622124116773499, 0.24849146739470301, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.043077173670302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2412801347501028, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5975016895580821, 1.573745976857293, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298095580697712, 0.0, 0.7773919346032045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9183962928126828, 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.6223652381631435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11592762487947395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14090675707744726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3319021286985198, 0.5457812878195709, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012897629776795667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284764, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284764 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723558549.46828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6864976743773208, 0.3135023256226792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon." }, { "id": 27112, "title": "Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?", "short_title": "Jailbreak for Anthropic by 11/10?", "url_title": "Jailbreak for Anthropic by 11/10?", "slug": "jailbreak-for-anthropic-by-1110", "author_id": 117281, "author_username": "thezvi", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-09T17:22:47.806314Z", "published_at": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.986351Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 18, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "community": [ { "id": 3406, "name": "Zvi's Community", "type": "community", "slug": "zvi", "description": "<p>This page belongs to a Community curated by <a href=\"https://x.com/TheZvi?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor\">Zvi Mowshowitz</a>.</p>\r\n\r\n<p><i>Note: This page belongs to a Metaculus experiment in hosting <b>Communities</b> managed by volunteer curators. Think \"subreddits, but for forecasting.\" They can have more flexible questions and resolution criteria and can focus on a broader range of topics than questions in the main feed. Community questions do not appear in the main Metaculus feed by default, but may be added. Forecasts on Community pages do not contribute to standings on the main leaderboards.</i></p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><i>Because Community pages are managed by volunteer curators, questions about resolution criteria or definitions may not be answered in a timely manner—or may not be answered at all. Further, while the <a href=\"https://www.metaculus.com/help/guidelines/\">Metaculus Community Guidelines</a> apply on these pages, Communities are meant to operate largely autonomously, and so comments should not be directed to @admins.</i></p>\r\n\r\n<p><i>Have feedback or ideas on the Communities experiment more generally? Let us know at support@metaculus.com.</i></p>", "order": 0, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Screenshot_2024-08-09_at_4.36.34PM.png", "header_logo": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/24e99a900de1fc5a22336b80aef68a59_400x400.png", "followers_count": 1, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "unlisted", "created_by": null } ] }, "question": { "id": 27112, "title": "Will a Universal Jailbreak be found in Anthropic's bug bounty program by 11/10/24?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T17:22:47.806314Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T17:29:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T17:29:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T17:29:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-02-03T00:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-04T00:34:35.030908Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-10T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Anthropic announced a safety bug bounty program here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty\n\nSam Bowman said he would bet at 25% odds that no universal jailbreak would be found, see: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369\n\n\"And the intent is for universal jailbreaks: To resolve the bet to 'no', someone would have to write a simple recipe (or, ideally, a fully-automated UI) that gets an answer to any harmful query, where that answer reflects roughly the level of capability that you'd expect from a near-frontier LLM.\nThe resolution process is probably too messy for something like Metaculus, but I'll also offer this bet to other Anthropic safety people, for whom it'll be crisper!\"", "resolution_criteria": "*This page belongs to a Community curated by Zvi Mowshowitz. Read the Note below to learn more about how Community pages differ from standard Metaculus pages.*\n\nThis question will resolve to Anthropic / Sam Bowman's verdict on the result, if available by 11/30. If not available by 11/30 and there are no prospects of getting a straight answer, and the answer isn't otherwise known, this will resolve N/A (note this is different from Manifold, where I will use best judgment then, since N/A is discouraged there).\n\nTo qualify, a jailbreak must fit Bowman's criteria: A simple recipe (or fully automated UI) that can get the AI in question to answer any harmful query to the best of its underlying ability.\n\n*Note: This page belongs to a Metaculus experiment in hosting Communities managed by volunteer curators. Think \"subreddits, but for forecasting.\" They can have more flexible questions and resolution criteria and can focus on a broader range of topics than questions in the main feed. Community questions do not appear in the main Metaculus feed by default, but may be added. Forecasts on Community pages do not contribute to standings on the main leaderboards.*\n\n*Because Community pages are managed by volunteer curators, questions about resolution criteria or definitions may not be answered in a timely manner—or may not be answered at all. Further, while the Metaculus Community Guidelines apply on these pages, Communities are meant to operate largely autonomously, and so comments should not be directed to @admins.*\n\n*Have feedback or ideas on the Community experiment more generally? 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"start_time": 1728287805.940509, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.541274907914267, 0.458725092085733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Anthropic announced a safety bug bounty program here: https://www.anthropic.com/news/model-safety-bug-bounty\n\nSam Bowman said he would bet at 25% odds that no universal jailbreak would be found, see: https://x.com/sleepinyourhat/status/1821955767328809369\n\n\"And the intent is for universal jailbreaks: To resolve the bet to 'no', someone would have to write a simple recipe (or, ideally, a fully-automated UI) that gets an answer to any harmful query, where that answer reflects roughly the level of capability that you'd expect from a near-frontier LLM.\nThe resolution process is probably too messy for something like Metaculus, but I'll also offer this bet to other Anthropic safety people, for whom it'll be crisper!\"" }, { "id": 27105, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "short_title": "1st Clade I mpox in US by August 23, 2024", "url_title": "1st Clade I mpox in US by August 23, 2024", "slug": "1st-clade-i-mpox-in-us-by-august-23-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-09T12:39:49.428157Z", "published_at": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.615833Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15880, "name": "Mpox outbreak", "slug": "mpox", "emoji": "🦠🩺", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27105, "title": "Will the CDC confirm a case of Clade I mpox in a US resident before August 23, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-09T12:39:49.428157Z", "open_time": "2024-08-10T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T14:30:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-25T00:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-24T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) publicly confirms at least one case of Clade I mpox (also referred to by CDC as monkeypox virus or MPXV) in a resident of the United States on or before August 23, 2024. The confirmation must be made through an official CDC announcement, such as a press release, health alert, or update on their website.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** if the CDC does not confirm any cases of Clade I mpox in U.S. residents before 11:59 PM EDT on August 23, 2024.", "fine_print": "- Confirmation is required; CDC's mere acknowledgment of a case being reported, such as from a state department of health, will not count.\n\n- Suspected or probable cases will not count. Only cases meeting the [CDC's confirmed case definition](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/mpox/clinicians/case-definition.html#confirmed) for mpox will be considered.\n\n- Imported cases count, as long as the infected person is a U.S. resident and physically present within the 50 states at the time of confirmation.\n\n- For this question, a U.S. resident is defined as any member of the U.S. resident population per the [CDC's definition](https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/hus/sources-definitions/population.htm).\n\n- Any subclades of Clade I will count. This question uses the [current naming conventions of the World Health Organization](https://www.who.int/news/item/12-08-2022-monkeypox--experts-give-virus-variants-new-names), which state: \"Consensus was reached to now refer to the former Congo Basin (Central African) clade as Clade one (I) and the former West African clade as Clade two (II).\"", "post_id": 27105, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724444613.296684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724444613.296684, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.038196003594999625 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9225774080436027, 2.260800252729193, 2.6704857971192415, 0.9728248643978954, 1.344477632729633, 0.21947103524661143, 0.2683381675603621, 0.22333016008979378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018152807974501476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.1516622826293349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.11036940539151763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.835660586640213, "coverage": 0.9967591307137678, "baseline_score": 68.23816204502256, "spot_peer_score": 31.872245211344143, "peer_archived_score": 7.835660586640213, "baseline_archived_score": 68.23816204502256, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.872245211344143 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724444613.335534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724444613.335534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [NBC News](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/cdc-alerts-doctors-watch-strain-mpox-spreading-africa-rcna165424):\n\n>The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued an [alert](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp) Wednesday for doctors to watch for signs of a more severe [strain of mpox](https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/mpox-strain-spreads-cdc-who-stronger-warnings-rcna165155) that's currently spreading widely in parts of Africa.\n\n>The agency's alert came hours after the World Health Organization's Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesu [tweeted](https://x.com/DrTedros/status/1821199556647764234) that he will be convening a group of advisers to determine whether the mpox outbreak should be declared a public health emergency of international concern. The committee will meet as soon as possible, Tedros said.\n\n>Cases of the strain, called clade 1, haven't been reported outside of central and eastern Africa at this time, the CDC said in its alert. However, due to the risk of additional spread, the agency is recommending clinicians in the U.S. consider mpox in patients who have recently been in the Democratic Republic of Congo or to any neighboring country (Angola, Burundi, Central Africa Republic, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, South Sudan, Uganda or Zambia) and have symptoms of mpox.\n\nThe [2022-2023 outbreak](https://www.cdc.gov/poxvirus/Mpox/response/2022/world-map.html) of mpox (monkeypox) was the Clade II variant and had 207 confirmed fatalities out of 99,518 confirmed cases, which was a fatality rate of 0.2%. The Clade I variant is considered [significantly more severe](https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2024/han00513.asp), with a fatality rate of nearly 4%." } ] }
