Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2680
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2700", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2660", "results": [ { "id": 22634, "title": "If Nicolás Maduro loses the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "short_title": "Maduro's Party Recognizes Results?", "url_title": "Maduro's Party Recognizes Results?", "slug": "maduros-party-recognizes-results", "author_id": 125391, "author_username": "diego.lombardi.boscan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-25T11:35:12.634477Z", "published_at": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.720765Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22634, "title": "If Nicolás Maduro loses the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, will he abdicate the presidency?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T11:35:12.634477Z", "open_time": "2024-05-02T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-05T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-05T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-07T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-29T06:08:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 28, 2024, presidential elections will be held in Venezuela. According to the most [recent poll](https://www.vozdeamerica.com/amp/edmundo-gonzalez-candidato-presidencial-poco-conocido-venezuela-que-sin-hablar-toma-impulso-en-encuestas/7579140.html), the opposition candidate would easily win the election if it is free and fair. However, the current government has been putting up some obstacles, which raises doubts about the possibility of having competitive elections and in this context, whether the government will respect the electoral results. \n\nThe Venezuelan Constitution [establishes](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelas-presidential-crisis-and-transition-democracy) that the new presidential term will begin on January 10, 2025.\n\nRelated question: [Who will be elected President of Venezuela in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22727/venezuela-election-winner-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro does not win the 2024 presidential election and is not president on January 10, 2025.\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if Maduro does not win the 2024 presidential election and is still president on January 10, 2025.\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf Maduro wins the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, this question will be **Annulled**.", "fine_print": "If the election is canceled or postponed beyond January 9, 2025, this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 22634, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722228390.288252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722228390.288252, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.19787416549619938 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1866817496780098, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.625123946004474, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5008196833931818, 0.18029738860722122, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7963739058787758, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722228390.320578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722228390.320578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9790176005574907, 0.020982399442509393 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 39, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 28, 2024, presidential elections will be held in Venezuela. According to the most [recent poll](https://www.vozdeamerica.com/amp/edmundo-gonzalez-candidato-presidencial-poco-conocido-venezuela-que-sin-hablar-toma-impulso-en-encuestas/7579140.html), the opposition candidate would easily win the election if it is free and fair. However, the current government has been putting up some obstacles, which raises doubts about the possibility of having competitive elections and in this context, whether the government will respect the electoral results. \n\nThe Venezuelan Constitution [establishes](https://www.csis.org/analysis/venezuelas-presidential-crisis-and-transition-democracy) that the new presidential term will begin on January 10, 2025.\n\nRelated question: [Who will be elected President of Venezuela in 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22727/venezuela-election-winner-2024/)" }, { "id": 22633, "title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?", "short_title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation?", "url_title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation?", "slug": "will-pedro-sanchez-announce-his-resignation", "author_id": 118208, "author_username": "kikollan", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-25T09:23:28.435961Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.611024Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 133, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22633, "title": "Will Pedro Sanchez announce his resignation as Prime Minister of Spain before April 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-25T09:23:28.435961Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T16:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T01:00:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T01:00:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-30T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-28T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 24, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez [announced contemplating resignation](https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-04-24/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-considers-resigning-due-to-the-unprecedented-attacks-against-his-wife-by-the-right-and-the-far-right.html) following an investigation targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez, prompted by a complaint from the \"far-right\" group Manos Limpias. Distressed, he penned a letter considering resignation due to these \"unprecedented attacks.\" He kept this decision private, without hosting any crisis meetings.\n\nSánchez has withdrawn from public engagements until the upcoming Monday, when he plans to address the media and discuss his political future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Prime Minister of Spain, Pedro Sánchez, has announced his resignation. Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "Sánchez need not actually vacate his office. Only an announcement that he will resign is required.\n\nAn announcement that he will not seek reelection does not count.\n\nThe announcement must be unequivocal and not an announcement that he is considering resignation or similar.", "post_id": 22633, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714341340.913999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714341340.913999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.2880328525299093 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.9409170059174523, 0.11637443465681149, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1804073497217478, 0.0, 1.7941404181394651, 0.35332570888205544, 0.7379977876713621, 4.109177762922711, 0.058454617274962296, 1.1455226735586064, 0.9731507596665807, 1.2390005898881435, 0.10971520404186627, 0.018316121412799306, 0.7549053771894576, 0.00031326503155383454, 0.0, 0.5955144568600583, 0.0, 0.1511315821496751, 0.015236013164587956, 0.009363172280209482, 0.23168684939224465, 0.013280479299666087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7816010053086422, 0.008104156970479877, 0.0, 0.025810062942312167, 0.0, 0.1823900194333291, 0.0, 0.00019694962065035435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17987743706795636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2054221346617558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4070435277239889, 0.3690183741200392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45816725708253253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10446072670974002, 0.11023029160557597, 0.0241779814177198, 0.0, 0.0, 2.665423269405913e-05, 0.3429018419028987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.516634715144433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8771684931589312, 0.0, 0.0008584117833175608, 0.0, 0.76863818174151, 0.021249607660824277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018634731409174585, 0.6182060909153873 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.001223362112757, "coverage": 0.9998176733849341, "baseline_score": 66.70090670775514, "spot_peer_score": 9.916178815362567, "peer_archived_score": 22.001223362112757, "baseline_archived_score": 66.70090670775514, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.916178815362567 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714341340.956967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714341340.956967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 133, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9204796755262094, 0.07952032447379068 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 240, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 24, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez [announced contemplating resignation](https://english.elpais.com/spain/2024-04-24/spanish-prime-minister-pedro-sanchez-considers-resigning-due-to-the-unprecedented-attacks-against-his-wife-by-the-right-and-the-far-right.html) following an investigation targeting his wife, Begoña Gómez, prompted by a complaint from the \"far-right\" group Manos Limpias. Distressed, he penned a letter considering resignation due to these \"unprecedented attacks.\" He kept this decision private, without hosting any crisis meetings.\n\nSánchez has withdrawn from public engagements until the upcoming Monday, when he plans to address the media and discuss his political future." }, { "id": 22628, "title": "Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?", "short_title": "Columbia President Censured in April 2024?", "url_title": "Columbia President Censured in April 2024?", "slug": "columbia-president-censured-in-april-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-24T21:39:14.782921Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.871379Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22628, "title": "Will the Columbia University Senate vote to censure university president Nemat Shafik on or before April 26, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-24T21:39:14.782921Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-25T04:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-25T04:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-27T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T17:05:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus.\n\nThe university has been negotiating with student protesters, [saying on April 24](https://communications.news.columbia.edu/news/campus-updates) that progress had been made and that students had committed to removing a \"significant number of tents\". Shafik has also faces a [potential censure](https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/columbia-yale-student-protests-4-23-24/h_5ad891938bdb320617ece840a6000bf8) by the University Senate. While a censure would be primarily symbolic, such a censure would be noteworthy as the senate's [111 member body includes](https://senate.columbia.edu/content/111-university-senators-20-schools) 76 members of the faculty and administration compared to only 25 current students. The senate's monthly meeting is [scheduled for April 26](https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/eventView.do?b=de&calPath=%2Fpublic%2Fcals%2FMainCal&guid=CAL-00bbdb7c-888a9fcc-0188-8cd481cd-00004a39events%40columbia.edu&recurrenceId=).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, on or before April 26, 2024, credible sources report that the Columbia University Senate has voted to censure university president Nemat Shafik.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22628, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714151076.794349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714151076.794349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.18118584249789668 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 2.6814880507369345, 0.0, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.0, 1.304453145791202, 0.5685529016609817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 1.1938327340865411, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8397125027217119, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.4925449486176343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4283217889117321, 0.0, 0.008663037296332391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3665885696709727, 0.28723502953736213, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0216015677189824, 0.09464378440008571, 0.0, 0.14444552114137227, 0.0, 0.08368122008485587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036208439996911576, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10666096661288105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11981076312780951, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1341757537316506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.289342563263141, "coverage": 0.9938893504864948, "baseline_score": 9.151913016100494, "spot_peer_score": 10.229053932381388, "peer_archived_score": 5.289342563263141, "baseline_archived_score": 9.151913016100494, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.229053932381388 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714151076.834195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714151076.834195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9587597607075616, 0.041240239292438356 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 103, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Large protests [have occurred at a number of US universities](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/live-blog/columbia-protests-live-update-encampment-continue-college-negotiates-p-rcna149111), with participants demonstrating against Israel's invasion of Gaza. Protests at Columbia University have been especially prominent, as protesters set up a large encampment resulting in a police response and [100 arrests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68893185) made on April 18, 2024. In a [speech at the campus on April 24, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/house-speaker-mike-johnson-columbia-university-visit/), US Speaker of the House Mike Johnson called for university president Nemat Shafik to resign due to continued protests and encampments on campus.\n\nThe university has been negotiating with student protesters, [saying on April 24](https://communications.news.columbia.edu/news/campus-updates) that progress had been made and that students had committed to removing a \"significant number of tents\". Shafik has also faces a [potential censure](https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/columbia-yale-student-protests-4-23-24/h_5ad891938bdb320617ece840a6000bf8) by the University Senate. While a censure would be primarily symbolic, such a censure would be noteworthy as the senate's [111 member body includes](https://senate.columbia.edu/content/111-university-senators-20-schools) 76 members of the faculty and administration compared to only 25 current students. The senate's monthly meeting is [scheduled for April 26](https://events.columbia.edu/cal/event/eventView.do?b=de&calPath=%2Fpublic%2Fcals%2FMainCal&guid=CAL-00bbdb7c-888a9fcc-0188-8cd481cd-00004a39events%40columbia.edu&recurrenceId=)." }, { "id": 22576, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On June 2024?", "url_title": "Russia Controls Chasiv Yar On June 2024?", "slug": "russia-controls-chasiv-yar-on-june-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-24T17:17:59.769170Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.595168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 174, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22576, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-24T17:17:59.769170Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). Ukraine has [reportedly said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus on June 1, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the coordinates 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E as under any of the following categories:\n\n\n\n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine\n\n- Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n\n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the location\n\n\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the location is not assessed to be in any of the categories indicating Russian control, which includes but is not limited to:\n\n\n\n- Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours\n\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location or a lack of Russian control of the location", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".", "post_id": 22576, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717183165.904426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717183165.904426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0494511892535625 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.129842971948163, 10.305795737419329, 0.6263683415425672, 0.030369685047608248, 0.07516982544664925, 0.5452575416257975, 0.007142710226349658, 0.06388955117467894, 0.0027205842468713518, 0.0377128179020582, 0.41158518761830776, 0.0003709648157365384, 0.0008184130252278558, 0.0, 0.00016348815720074343, 0.051923940209118884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5224429083822705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010196244912731765, 0.0019137687189129844, 0.015153217048975315, 0.0, 5.1481853690146295e-05, 0.0, 0.0823933359887159, 0.0, 0.005228389281653636, 0.011411792011796784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012996241416064855, 0.0033206617795591845, 0.0, 0.05899588033860485, 0.0, 0.0, 5.966265109529925e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002901763190782373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006927605292204378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5429400341282805e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004604798889805693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037201320476189986, 0.028803591427246904, 0.0488962687092053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004047077714008696, 0.0, 2.632070549860035e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047239404264455206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012789316667053264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7074000907982695 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.839285235199554, "coverage": 0.9999895052485961, "baseline_score": 80.62493494610219, "spot_peer_score": 20.983586805520144, "peer_archived_score": 20.839285235199554, "baseline_archived_score": 80.62493494610219, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.983586805520144 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717183165.960972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717183165.960972, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 174, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9981216606425867, 0.0018783393574132786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 640, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). Ukraine has [reportedly said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aims to capture the city by May 9." }, { "id": 22560, "title": "Will Ukraine start revoking passports of military draft age men residing abroad before 2026?", "short_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "url_title": "Ukraine Revokes Passports by 2026", "slug": "ukraine-revokes-passports-by-2026", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-24T10:22:26.544667Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T04:33:49.617732Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-30T12:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, 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"actual_close_time": "2025-12-29T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Shortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Ukraine government has initiated a policy of revoking previously valid passports of Ukrainian men, deemed to be of draft age, who reside outside the country.\n\nIf no credible sources report such revocation before January 1, 2026, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This passport revocation announcement must describe the revocation as either nationwide or affecting at least 1,000 draft-eligible Ukrainian men abroad without proper military service documents.", "post_id": 22560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758083619.399774, "end_time": 1761287811.835496, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758083619.399774, "end_time": 1761287811.835496, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019216621168476056 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.1067071360681364, 1.6152203024252736, 1.2218864733371366, 0.5739297798744367, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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null }, "forecasts_count": 113, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Shortly after new Ukrainian mobilization law [was signed](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/16/europe/zelensky-signs-mobilization-law-intl-latam/index.html), all [consular services for men age 18-60 was suspended](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/23/europe/ukraine-consulates-mobilization-intl-latam/index.html), including issuing and renewing passports.\n\nIn light of these developments, there have been concerns, reportedly amplified by [Russian propaganda](https://disinfo.detector.media/en/post/the-ukrainian-government-allegedly-wants-to-cancel-the-international-passports-of-citizens-abroad), that this will be supplemented by revoking already-issued passports, thus forcing Ukrainian men to return home." }, { "id": 22554, "title": "Will the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) reach parity before 2030?", "short_title": "1 GBP be equal to 1 USD before 2030?", "url_title": "1 GBP be equal to 1 USD before 2030?", "slug": "1-gbp-be-equal-to-1-usd-before-2030", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-23T17:12:53.810185Z", "published_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.559377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-28T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22554, "title": "Will the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) reach parity before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-23T17:12:53.810185Z", "open_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-28T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-28T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The exchange rate between two currencies is influenced by numerous factors including inflation rates, interest rates, public debt, political stability and economic performance among others.\n\nThe relative strength of a nation's fiat currency compared to historic levels is often seen as a measure of the success of the country as a whole, even though countries in the past have seen it as advantageous to devalue their currency. The relative strength of a nation's currency compared to peers often provides a talking point if nothing else, and can have a big psychological impact, affecting consumer and business confidence. in practical terms, it can affect individuals and governments alike by affecting their relative purchasing power.\n\nThe US dollar and British pound have never achieved parity. In September 2022, it came close, with the pound [bottoming](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html) at $1.08. The international investment bank Citi [reported](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-could-plunge-parity-with-dollar-citi-2022-09-23/) that the UK risked a confidence crisis in its currency and would find it difficult to finance economic pledges such as tax cuts.\n\nA significant cause of the decline [was seen]((https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html)) as reckless British government policy. This was seen as affecting investor perception of the UK's fiscal competence.\n\nSee Also: \n\n[Macrotrends historical chart GBP USD](https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart)\n\nInvestopedia: [Why the British Pound Is Stronger Than the U.S. Dollar](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070516/why-british-pound-stronger-us-dollar.asp)\n\nCME Group: [Seven Factors that Drive the U.S. Dollar-British Pound Rate](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/seven-factors-that-drive-the-us-dollar-british-pound-rate.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the daily close price for the official exchange rate between the Pound Sterling (GBP) and the US Dollar (USD) reaches 1:1 before 2030, according to data from the [International Monetary Fund](https://www.imf.org/external/np/fin/data/rms_rep.aspx). To be resolved, the daily close exchange rate must be reported as being one Pound Sterling for one US Dollar or less.\n\nIf the IMF stops reporting, then Metaculus Admins can choose an alternative source such as a reliable financial news source or global financial institution.\n\nIf this event does not happen before January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If the Pound Sterling or the US Dollar cease to exist as currencies, then the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758293241.696157, "end_time": 1758679808.258481, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758293241.696157, "end_time": 1758679808.258481, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.1303600639915178 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.8807190051633872, 0.4326949339433014, 0.6740515249111422, 0.772330576101931, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.8950225264917947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41022926190666076, 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289416.49588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289416.49588, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9468615193748595, 0.053138480625140525 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The exchange rate between two currencies is influenced by numerous factors including inflation rates, interest rates, public debt, political stability and economic performance among others.\n\nThe relative strength of a nation's fiat currency compared to historic levels is often seen as a measure of the success of the country as a whole, even though countries in the past have seen it as advantageous to devalue their currency. The relative strength of a nation's currency compared to peers often provides a talking point if nothing else, and can have a big psychological impact, affecting consumer and business confidence. in practical terms, it can affect individuals and governments alike by affecting their relative purchasing power.\n\nThe US dollar and British pound have never achieved parity. In September 2022, it came close, with the pound [bottoming](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html) at $1.08. The international investment bank Citi [reported](https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-could-plunge-parity-with-dollar-citi-2022-09-23/) that the UK risked a confidence crisis in its currency and would find it difficult to finance economic pledges such as tax cuts.\n\nA significant cause of the decline [was seen]((https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/27/business/dealbook/british-pound-parity-markets-dollar.html)) as reckless British government policy. This was seen as affecting investor perception of the UK's fiscal competence.\n\nSee Also: \n\n[Macrotrends historical chart GBP USD](https://www.macrotrends.net/2549/pound-dollar-exchange-rate-historical-chart)\n\nInvestopedia: [Why the British Pound Is Stronger Than the U.S. Dollar](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/070516/why-british-pound-stronger-us-dollar.asp)\n\nCME Group: [Seven Factors that Drive the U.S. Dollar-British Pound Rate](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/featured-reports/seven-factors-that-drive-the-us-dollar-british-pound-rate.html)" }, { "id": 22547, "title": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Gagauzia Governor Russia Visit by June 1?", "url_title": "Gagauzia Governor Russia Visit by June 1?", "slug": "gagauzia-governor-russia-visit-by-june-1", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-23T12:12:26.159782Z", "published_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.963257Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 49, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22547, "title": "Will the governor of Gagauzia, Evghenia Guțul, travel to the Russian Federation before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-23T12:12:26.159782Z", "open_time": "2024-04-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-28T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.\n\nHowever, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-gagauzia-the-restless-region-in-the-south/), is currently undergoing major \"temptation\" from Russia. The region, inhabited by over 120,000 Gagauzes, who are an Orthodox, mostly Russian speaking Moldovan minority, is newly connected to the Mir banking system, Russian [propaganda](https://dfrlab.org/2024/03/19/kremlin-media-blitz-gagauzia/) is widely spreading (most TV channels are Russian), and control of the [Chisinau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi%C8%99in%C4%83u) government is openly challenged.\n\nThe most important figure in this new development is Evghenia Guțul, a young pro-Russian politician, who was [elected](https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html) a governor of the region in the last year's elections, which brought a lot of controversy due to allegations of corruption and the fact that Guțul ran on a ticket of a banned Pro-Russian party (connected to the Russian oligarch Ilan Shor).\n\nGuțul visited Russia twice in the last several weeks. The most recent [visit](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/04/10/moldovas-restive-gagauzia-region-mulls-using-russian-payment-cards/) occurred on the 8th of April, and before that on the 6th of March, during which she [met](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/07/pro-moscow-governor-of-moldovas-gagauzia-seeks-putins-help/) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (edit May 6, 2024: Guțul also appears to have been in Moscow when this question was launched, with a [meeting in Moscow on April 22](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-brings-criminal-case-against-pro-russian-gagauzia-leader-court-2024-04-24/) and on [April 24](https://twitter.com/EvgheniaGutul/status/1783236723297685785)).\n\nIn the aftermath of both visits Russia promised to \"protect\" Gagauzia and also to distribute monthly [payments](https://cepa.org/article/the-kremlin-decides-to-buy-a-population/) to Gagauzian civil servants and senior citizens (together accounting for approximately 25,000 people).\n\nMore Guțul visits in Russia might signal rapid development in this region, which could mean further deterioration of the relationship between Gagauzia and Moldovan government.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 24, 2024, and before June 1, 2024, credible sources report that Evghenia Guțul has traveled to Russian territory within that period.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of the question, Crimea and the Russia-controlled parts of Ukraine are considered to be Russian Federation territory.", "post_id": 22547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715274721.048933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715274721.048933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6950675244423947 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.029133191509986833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15724883273568244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6983056029809626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007406772822704901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11748690146061783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.189341530780365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4080235318474639, 0.0, 0.49690095490140007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018701514513498173, 0.0, 0.20728428597607368, 0.0, 0.5576688763820327, 1.1748677442684337, 0.061881780206469506, 0.29365530089148495, 0.025290490754560285, 0.0, 0.7066667457540853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22141789721597055, 0.0, 0.003256133383704309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5164960024539398, 0.39795331004878454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005849328395348274, 0.013393291873889481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0567063198522528, 0.03806556990920311, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07660192757428971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0862062439156513, 0.9320576437636137, 0.0, 0.0, 1.004474424132665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.2873354858588657 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.904994854457772, "coverage": 0.37579239409113663, "baseline_score": 12.290769330883144, "spot_peer_score": 6.30691693551318, "peer_archived_score": 3.904994854457772, "baseline_archived_score": 12.290769330883144, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.30691693551318 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715184401.021788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715184401.021788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.665364253775057, 0.33463574622494296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 184, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "When it comes to separatism and Moldova, most will likely recall Transnistria, which is controlled by separatists and elements of the Russian Federation armed forces since the 1990s.\n\nHowever, another autonomous region of Moldova, [Gagauzia](https://www.clingendael.org/pub/2022/walking-the-tightrope-towards-the-eu/4-gagauzia-the-restless-region-in-the-south/), is currently undergoing major \"temptation\" from Russia. The region, inhabited by over 120,000 Gagauzes, who are an Orthodox, mostly Russian speaking Moldovan minority, is newly connected to the Mir banking system, Russian [propaganda](https://dfrlab.org/2024/03/19/kremlin-media-blitz-gagauzia/) is widely spreading (most TV channels are Russian), and control of the [Chisinau](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chi%C8%99in%C4%83u) government is openly challenged.\n\nThe most important figure in this new development is Evghenia Guțul, a young pro-Russian politician, who was [elected](https://www.rferl.org/a/gutul-gagauzia-moldova-leader-shor-party/32412419.html) a governor of the region in the last year's elections, which brought a lot of controversy due to allegations of corruption and the fact that Guțul ran on a ticket of a banned Pro-Russian party (connected to the Russian oligarch Ilan Shor).\n\nGuțul visited Russia twice in the last several weeks. The most recent [visit](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/04/10/moldovas-restive-gagauzia-region-mulls-using-russian-payment-cards/) occurred on the 8th of April, and before that on the 6th of March, during which she [met](https://balkaninsight.com/2024/03/07/pro-moscow-governor-of-moldovas-gagauzia-seeks-putins-help/) with Russian President Vladimir Putin (edit May 6, 2024: Guțul also appears to have been in Moscow when this question was launched, with a [meeting in Moscow on April 22](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/moldova-brings-criminal-case-against-pro-russian-gagauzia-leader-court-2024-04-24/) and on [April 24](https://twitter.com/EvgheniaGutul/status/1783236723297685785)).\n\nIn the aftermath of both visits Russia promised to \"protect\" Gagauzia and also to distribute monthly [payments](https://cepa.org/article/the-kremlin-decides-to-buy-a-population/) to Gagauzian civil servants and senior citizens (together accounting for approximately 25,000 people).\n\nMore Guțul visits in Russia might signal rapid development in this region, which could mean further deterioration of the relationship between Gagauzia and Moldovan government." }, { "id": 22541, "title": "Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?", "short_title": "Best LLM Open Source in 2024?", "url_title": "Best LLM Open Source in 2024?", "slug": "best-llm-open-source-in-2024", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-23T07:32:06.073082Z", "published_at": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.875896Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T00:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22541, "title": "Will the highest Elo LLM on Chatbot Arena be non-proprietary during 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-23T07:32:06.073082Z", "open_time": "2024-04-27T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T00:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T00:32:18.072751Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) is a platform for benchmarking large language models (LLMs) through anonymous, randomized conversations with human raters. The models are then ranked on a public leaderboard based on their \"Arena Elo\" scores.\n\nAs large language models gain more impressive capabilities, it is an open question whether proprietary or non-proprietary models will ultimately succeed. \n\nWhile companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models proprietary, Meta has made its models non-proprietary.\n\nRecently, the non-proprietary LLaMA 3 model has been [released](https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3/), with its 70B version achieving a ranking above all models of a comparable size as of April 24th.\n\nThe 400B+ version of LLaMA 3 is still in training, and according to Meta has benchmarks that rival the top models currently released.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, at any point during 2024, an LLM that is listed as having any non-proprietary license is listed as the highest Arena Elo model on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard.\n\nIf no non-proprietary model has reached the top rank by 2025, this question will resolve **No.**", "fine_print": "If Chatbot Arena shuts down or is unavailable for a consecutive >1 month period a clear successor may be used, if this is required but there is no clear successor then this question will be **annulled.**\n\nIf Chatbot Arena changes its name or URL that will not affect the resolution.\n\nThe models should be sorted by \"Arena Elo\" in the \"Overall\" category. If these names are changed the analogous categories should be used, if there are no analogous categories this question will be **annulled.**\n\nTo be clear, any license that is non-proprietary will be sufficient to resolve this. As of April 24, 2024, Chatbot Arena clearly lists licenses as either proprietary or not. if available, this will be used to determine whether a model is proprietary if there is reasonable dispute.", "post_id": 22541, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735312763.06531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735312763.06531, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.008 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010050742580520683 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.313023312099144, 1.5856345636565115, 0.0, 0.2930888698849635, 0.1698461853777333, 0.4543131370604877, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022471481657050284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007980258807527762, 0.027344313508279407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.014335762373467701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06198292201444626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.52979891086424, "peer_score": 6.514696912544134, "coverage": 0.9994232930453132, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994232930453132, "spot_peer_score": 5.440575331935369, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 91.52979891086424, "peer_archived_score": 6.514696912544134, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.440575331935369, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287886.357891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287886.357891, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 147, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Chatbot Arena](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) is a platform for benchmarking large language models (LLMs) through anonymous, randomized conversations with human raters. The models are then ranked on a public leaderboard based on their \"Arena Elo\" scores.\n\nAs large language models gain more impressive capabilities, it is an open question whether proprietary or non-proprietary models will ultimately succeed. \n\nWhile companies like OpenAI and Anthropic have kept their models proprietary, Meta has made its models non-proprietary.\n\nRecently, the non-proprietary LLaMA 3 model has been [released](https://ai.meta.com/blog/meta-llama-3/), with its 70B version achieving a ranking above all models of a comparable size as of April 24th.\n\nThe 400B+ version of LLaMA 3 is still in training, and according to Meta has benchmarks that rival the top models currently released." }, { "id": 22534, "title": "Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Senate Passes TikTok Ban Before May 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Senate Passes TikTok Ban Before May 1, 2024?", "slug": "senate-passes-tiktok-ban-before-may-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T20:56:24.510882Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.905510Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22534, "title": "Will the US Senate pass a bill that intends to ban or force the sale of TikTok before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T20:56:24.510882Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T01:43:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There has been a [lengthy debate](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/what-happened-to-the-tiktok-ban-00120434) around TikTok and the potential security risk from the app due to its ownership by ByteDance, a company [incorporated in the Cayman Islands and based in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-owns-stakes-bytedance-weibo-domestic-entities-records-show-2021-08-17/), and [close connections between Chinese businesses and the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/tech/tiktok-bytedance-china-ownership-intl-hnk/index.html).\n\nThe US House of Representatives [first passed a bill](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-house-vote-china-national-security-8fa7258fae1a4902d344c9d978d58a37) that would have the effect of banning TikTok if it was not divested from its Chinese parent company on March 13, 2024. However, this bill faced scrutiny in the Senate, where it was [sent to committee](https://apnews.com/article/senate-tiktok-ban-lobbying-congress-china-a340cf30b05343816380793af1c5d186). More recently, the House incorporated another TikTok ban into ([HR 8308](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8038/text)) a bill which includes funds for Israel and Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Iran. This bill, which passed on April 20th, incorporates revised text to [improve its prospects in the Senate and in the courts](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/20/tiktok-bill-passed-explainer-00153472).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 1, 2024, credible sources report that the US Senate has passed a bill that would have the effect of prohibiting TikTok from being distributed within the United States under its current operating and ownership structure.", "fine_print": "* \"Current operating and ownership structure\" means the structure in place as of April 22, 2024.\n* There is no requirement on when the prohibition becomes effective, so long as the Senate passes a bill that would satisfy these criteria on some future date.\n* A bill that includes exemptions to the prohibition of TikTok if certain criteria are met would still resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the prohibition would apply under TikTok's current operating and ownership structure.\n* Potential legal challenges are immaterial, only the passage of such a bill is required for this question to resolve as **Yes**.\n* If it is unclear from media reporting whether these criteria have been met Metaculus may assess the text of the bill itself and make a determination from the text of the bill. If, in the judgment of Metaculus, it is unclear from the text of the bill whether these criteria have been met the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22534, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713930403.895216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713930403.895216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 159, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9648982226538043 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0059390538704059016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002062514325037591, 1.3738524686593568e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025057835047830775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040181571499506144, 0.0, 0.000495709636511211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2860171453113798, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01524703166576841, 0.004846927288182437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006031360346703764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001864122413154778, 0.0, 0.18548230135288377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.467992956359265e-05, 0.0, 0.00044807912297860667, 0.0, 6.708700406036308e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008235752535017807, 0.0, 0.21931118612032297, 0.6694736627197684, 0.00018236138406304314, 0.004219275769030093, 0.00014084327281215552, 0.01705343592848357, 0.007291082670116927, 0.012949130888982072, 0.0012390126954986837, 0.0031853078882124754, 0.0953894937424731, 0.17098938941075964, 0.008086719180545264, 0.016382075660533055, 0.006717353588099061, 1.2498025321923603, 4.7074980302278084e-05, 1.666033965788145, 0.4438420133761478, 18.577834614104525 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.468145666805457, "coverage": 0.06110075656989265, "baseline_score": 5.682738596672976, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 1.468145666805457, "baseline_archived_score": 5.682738596672976, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713922956.873886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713922956.873886, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07554542976338485, 0.9244545702366151 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 231, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There has been a [lengthy debate](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/10/09/what-happened-to-the-tiktok-ban-00120434) around TikTok and the potential security risk from the app due to its ownership by ByteDance, a company [incorporated in the Cayman Islands and based in China](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/beijing-owns-stakes-bytedance-weibo-domestic-entities-records-show-2021-08-17/), and [close connections between Chinese businesses and the Chinese government](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/18/tech/tiktok-bytedance-china-ownership-intl-hnk/index.html).\n\nThe US House of Representatives [first passed a bill](https://apnews.com/article/tiktok-ban-house-vote-china-national-security-8fa7258fae1a4902d344c9d978d58a37) that would have the effect of banning TikTok if it was not divested from its Chinese parent company on March 13, 2024. However, this bill faced scrutiny in the Senate, where it was [sent to committee](https://apnews.com/article/senate-tiktok-ban-lobbying-congress-china-a340cf30b05343816380793af1c5d186). More recently, the House incorporated another TikTok ban into ([HR 8308](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/8038/text)) a bill which includes funds for Israel and Ukraine and sanctions against Russia and Iran. This bill, which passed on April 20th, incorporates revised text to [improve its prospects in the Senate and in the courts](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/20/tiktok-bill-passed-explainer-00153472)." }, { "id": 22532, "title": "Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Channel at Port of Baltimore Before May 2024?", "url_title": "Channel at Port of Baltimore Before May 2024?", "slug": "channel-at-port-of-baltimore-before-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T18:51:04.720514Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.852683Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 171, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22532, "title": "Will a limited access channel to the Port of Baltimore be opened at the site of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T18:51:04.720514Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-25T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major bridge over the Patapsco River, which flows into the Chesapeake Bay, [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse) on March 26, 2024. The collapse resulted in the [closure of the Port of Baltimore](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/business/baltimore-port-autos-cruises/index.html), which the [US Bureau of Transportation Statistics describes](https://www.bts.gov/current-transportation-statistics/information-about-port-baltimore) as follows:\n\n>The Port of Baltimore is among the top 20 ports in the United States by tonnage and number of containers handled, is 10th largest port for dry bulk, and is a major hub for the import and export of motorized vehicles.\n\nIn response to the collapse authorities have established a Unified Command composed of the US Coast Guard, the US Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland officials, and Witt O'Brien's, an emergency management firm. The Unified Command is working to clear the river of debris and establish shipping lanes that can access the port. To date [three channels have been established](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept), though the maximum controlling depth of the available channels is only 20 feet. [WorldCargoNews.com, describes the latest channel to open and the depth requirements for shipping as follows](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept):\n\n>The channel has a controlling depth of 20 feet (6.09 meters), a 300-foot horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 135 feet, which is slightly deeper than the first two alternative routes. This is expected to bring transit estimates to approximately 15% of pre-collapse commercial activity.\n>\n>That being said, ultra-large container ships typically require channels with a depth of at least 50 feet (15.24 meters) to accommodate their draft, and for 24,000 TEU ships, this further extends to channel depths of around 18 meters or more. As such, the arrival of large containerships to Baltimore is likely to wait for another month, as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) aims to reopen the channel fully by the end of May.\n\nThe Unified Command [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/limited-access-channel-to-move-cargo-traffic-at-port-of-baltimore-to-be-ready-by-end-of-april/) that they are aiming to open a [limited access channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG), 35 feet deep and 280 feet wide, by the end of April. The Unified Command shares updates at its [Key Bridge Response page](https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/), and the Army Corps of Engineers also [maintains a page](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/KeyBridgeResponse/) for sharing updates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 1, 2024, credible sources report that a new channel has been opened at the location of the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge that has a channel depth of at least 30 feet and a width of at least 250 feet.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, to be considered credible the sources must cite public statements made by officials overseeing the operations.\n* If the specific dimensions of the channel are not reported the question will still resolve as **Yes ** if reports indicate that the \"limited access channel\" [previously described](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/Media/News-Releases/Article/3731790/us-army-corps-of-engineers-develops-tentative-timeline-to-reopen-fort-mchenry-c/) has been successfully opened. \n\n<a href=\"https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/\">\n<img src=\"https://static.wixstatic.com/media/4d756b_37429c10344546b395c1e78553f33253~mv2.png/v1/crop/x_0,y_830,w_4500,h_4141/fill/w_918,h_845,fp_0.50_0.50,q_90,usm_0.66_1.00_0.01,enc_auto/FSKB_NavCapablity_graphic_NoAux-15APR2024.png\" alt=\"Navigation Capability Graphic\" />\n</a>", "post_id": 22532, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714059713.217094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714059713.217094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 178, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9753943295408101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02608736062229848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.07839396989651e-06, 5.131320410279707e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.226059427147825e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01621011892349815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5629757473380443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7944484374606974e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011177491715655643, 1.8474549317889146e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.717435285075685e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.263727321171126e-05, 4.3659966631119545e-06, 0.0, 4.427726253352753e-05, 0.0, 0.00023837534085679364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000369261746866295, 0.007059524406762412, 0.0003503775547642438, 0.0, 0.08779593874773865, 0.16380125112680796, 1.9961842788088169, 0.2210194664350241, 0.05451891763917239, 0.3554084995888342, 21.694074701481604 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.584454331995582, "coverage": 0.2567926913715544, "baseline_score": 24.88884902775858, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 2.584454331995582, "baseline_archived_score": 24.88884902775858, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714033192.052203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714033192.052203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03348308803683098, 0.966516911963169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 253, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Francis Scott Key Bridge, a major bridge over the Patapsco River, which flows into the Chesapeake Bay, [collapsed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Francis_Scott_Key_Bridge_collapse) on March 26, 2024. The collapse resulted in the [closure of the Port of Baltimore](https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/26/business/baltimore-port-autos-cruises/index.html), which the [US Bureau of Transportation Statistics describes](https://www.bts.gov/current-transportation-statistics/information-about-port-baltimore) as follows:\n\n>The Port of Baltimore is among the top 20 ports in the United States by tonnage and number of containers handled, is 10th largest port for dry bulk, and is a major hub for the import and export of motorized vehicles.\n\nIn response to the collapse authorities have established a Unified Command composed of the US Coast Guard, the US Army Corps of Engineers, Maryland officials, and Witt O'Brien's, an emergency management firm. The Unified Command is working to clear the river of debris and establish shipping lanes that can access the port. To date [three channels have been established](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept), though the maximum controlling depth of the available channels is only 20 feet. [WorldCargoNews.com, describes the latest channel to open and the depth requirements for shipping as follows](https://www.worldcargonews.com/news/2024/04/unified-command-opens-third-alternative-channel-in-baltimore/?gdpr=accept):\n\n>The channel has a controlling depth of 20 feet (6.09 meters), a 300-foot horizontal clearance, and a vertical clearance of 135 feet, which is slightly deeper than the first two alternative routes. This is expected to bring transit estimates to approximately 15% of pre-collapse commercial activity.\n>\n>That being said, ultra-large container ships typically require channels with a depth of at least 50 feet (15.24 meters) to accommodate their draft, and for 24,000 TEU ships, this further extends to channel depths of around 18 meters or more. As such, the arrival of large containerships to Baltimore is likely to wait for another month, as U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) aims to reopen the channel fully by the end of May.\n\nThe Unified Command [has announced](https://www.cbsnews.com/baltimore/news/limited-access-channel-to-move-cargo-traffic-at-port-of-baltimore-to-be-ready-by-end-of-april/) that they are aiming to open a [limited access channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG), 35 feet deep and 280 feet wide, by the end of April. The Unified Command shares updates at its [Key Bridge Response page](https://www.keybridgeresponse2024.com/), and the Army Corps of Engineers also [maintains a page](https://www.nab.usace.army.mil/KeyBridgeResponse/) for sharing updates." }, { "id": 22526, "title": "Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker on May 20, 2024?", "url_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker on May 20, 2024?", "slug": "mike-johnson-speaker-on-may-20-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T14:35:50.764981Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.768280Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 338, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22526, "title": "Will Mike Johnson be Speaker of the House on May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T14:35:50.764981Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Republicans in the House of Representatives began the 118th Congress with a majority of 222 to 212, however due to resignations the majority has shrunk to [216 seats to 213 Democratic seats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Party_summary), the latest being Mike Gallagher's resignation, which [became effective on April 19](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/22/republican-house-majority-mike-gallagher). That means that if Democrats vote as a bloc, Republicans can only have one defection and still get a majority vote in the House.\n\nSpeaker of the House Mike Johnson succeeded Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy was [ousted in October 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/). However, with a slim majority and some contentious disagreements in his conference — especially regarding foreign aid to Ukraine — his hold on the speaker position may be tenuous. Currently only [one member](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/mike-johnson-speakership-rules/index.html) is needed to submit a motion to vacate, forcing a vote on removing the speaker, though there has been [recent discussion regarding changing this rule](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/mike-johnson-gaetz-motion-to-vacate-ukraine).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson is Speaker of the US House of Representatives on May 20, 2024, at noon Eastern Time. If he is not Speaker of the House it resolves as **No**. Johnson need not continuously be Speaker until that time so long as he is Speaker at the designated time.", "fine_print": "If Johnson announces he will resign as Speaker but the effective date is after the specified time, the question will still resolve as **Yes** so long as Johnson remains speaker as of the specified time.", "post_id": 22526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153187.738497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153187.738497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9957896651100809 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 8.403570211668486e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.254285101987536e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.334095600321165e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.872809412626187e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.341657833414461e-06, 0.0, 4.198691869102094e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.0200029851686126e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4979866452195777e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3094112158944196e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 5.785122682668696e-06, 6.257986478355243e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4487972858186793e-07, 1.0133989136461249e-06, 2.817653462614145e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 9.29552147722735e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.907584193789635e-05, 2.472444320597923e-05, 1.4609262482499767e-07, 0.0, 7.09868829962503e-05, 0.0, 0.0005166615786931456, 1.403896668622542e-05, 2.967110241816398e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013398016617137995, 0.005773089013033099, 3.239104470651015e-06, 0.027726447682343437, 1.969901594340334e-05, 0.0024024027033146484, 0.0, 0.0, 3.845155445941607e-06, 0.0016839465354915246, 0.03786562041031611, 0.00016100263485058862, 0.041778550141956305, 0.04063777577628935, 35.1125924996985 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.49895538619656, "coverage": 0.9999718321046684, "baseline_score": 96.99569858782694, "spot_peer_score": 16.924978210619383, "peer_archived_score": 12.49895538619656, "baseline_archived_score": 96.99569858782694, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.924978210619383 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153187.81872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153187.81872, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 338, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0028256921326352824, 0.9971743078673647 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 923, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Republicans in the House of Representatives began the 118th Congress with a majority of 222 to 212, however due to resignations the majority has shrunk to [216 seats to 213 Democratic seats](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress#Party_summary), the latest being Mike Gallagher's resignation, which [became effective on April 19](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/mar/22/republican-house-majority-mike-gallagher). That means that if Democrats vote as a bloc, Republicans can only have one defection and still get a majority vote in the House.\n\nSpeaker of the House Mike Johnson succeeded Kevin McCarthy after McCarthy was [ousted in October 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/mccarthy-says-he-thinks-he-will-survive-leadership-challenge-us-house-2023-10-03/). However, with a slim majority and some contentious disagreements in his conference — especially regarding foreign aid to Ukraine — his hold on the speaker position may be tenuous. Currently only [one member](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/18/politics/mike-johnson-speakership-rules/index.html) is needed to submit a motion to vacate, forcing a vote on removing the speaker, though there has been [recent discussion regarding changing this rule](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/18/mike-johnson-gaetz-motion-to-vacate-ukraine)." }, { "id": 22525, "title": "Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?", "short_title": "Russian assets seized in 2024", "url_title": "Russian assets seized in 2024", "slug": "russian-assets-seized-in-2024", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-22T07:56:32.847279Z", "published_at": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.315455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T19:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 64, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22525, "title": "Will the US or EU seize Russian sovereign assets in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-22T07:56:32.847279Z", "open_time": "2024-04-26T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-29T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-29T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T19:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T19:46:44.944279Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-28T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments both [in favor](https://www.justsecurity.org/93004/past-time-to-liquidate-russian-assets/) and [against](https://ubn.news/the-head-of-the-ecb-criticizes-the-us-plans-regarding-the-frozen-assets-of-the-russian-federation/) the move.\n\nRecently, US House of Representatives passed [a measure that authorizes (but not obliges) president to seize Russian sovereign assets](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/house-vote-billions-dollars-russian-government-money-sitting-us-banks-rcna148671). \n\nIt should be noted that only a minor fraction of these assets are frozen in the US, with majority stuck in [Belgian depositary Euroclear](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-frozen-russian-assets-generate-15-20-bln-until-2027-eu-official-says-2024-03-12/#:~:text=Some%2070%25%20of%20all%20Russian,central%20bank%20securities%20and%20cash.).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that any Russian sovereign assets currently frozen in the US or any EU country are seized on the government's order, before January 1, 2025. \n\nOnly sovereign assets count; assets belonging to individuals, private, or state-owned Russian companies do not count towards resolution of this question. Seizing profits generated by frozen assets, such as interest on bank accounts, also does not count.\n\nIf no credible sources report the seizure of Russian sovereign assets by the US or EU before January 1, 2025, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be based solely on the act of seizure of these assets, regardless of any subsequent utilization, sale, or conversion of the assets.", "post_id": 22525, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735311652.83255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735311652.83255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04681747472101456 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.100618638745713, 2.6417489775511074, 1.0389214840438266, 0.5912368114370814, 0.5567884362876924, 0.3637557883106848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1809392623709519, 0.04604314668505586, 0.16659473532271923, 0.0, 0.19192463488492234, 0.0, 0.2123642000108881, 0.03331085633663661, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1550723073964014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02349653657703422, 0.0, 0.03863627442329193, 0.0, 0.5521707312792997, 0.008989210862367118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00764267295316474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010489473131136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0053628669779807745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001034323308801349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014003379319251127, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17039268102726088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.0, 0.029744562688391502, 0.0, 0.06890810216651459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018296883616726805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006437720576519247 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 67.23220450078477, "peer_score": 44.75328758739248, "coverage": 0.9999895977528196, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999895977528196, "spot_peer_score": 69.36658052265562, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 67.23220450078477, "peer_archived_score": 44.75328758739248, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 69.36658052265562, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289398.760701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289398.760701, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9985790829684865, 0.0014209170315135238 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 215, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the [Russian invasion of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine) in 2022, almost $300bn of Russian sovereign assets were frozen in Western countries. There is a heated debate about whether to seize those assets, and transfer funds to help Ukraine in the war, with arguments both [in favor](https://www.justsecurity.org/93004/past-time-to-liquidate-russian-assets/) and [against](https://ubn.news/the-head-of-the-ecb-criticizes-the-us-plans-regarding-the-frozen-assets-of-the-russian-federation/) the move.\n\nRecently, US House of Representatives passed [a measure that authorizes (but not obliges) president to seize Russian sovereign assets](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/house-vote-billions-dollars-russian-government-money-sitting-us-banks-rcna148671). \n\nIt should be noted that only a minor fraction of these assets are frozen in the US, with majority stuck in [Belgian depositary Euroclear](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-frozen-russian-assets-generate-15-20-bln-until-2027-eu-official-says-2024-03-12/#:~:text=Some%2070%25%20of%20all%20Russian,central%20bank%20securities%20and%20cash.)." }, { "id": 22524, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?", "short_title": "U.S. Employment Below 30% by 2030", "url_title": "U.S. Employment Below 30% by 2030", "slug": "us-employment-below-30-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-21T18:05:17.339903Z", "published_at": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.293818Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22524, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 30% before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-21T18:05:17.339903Z", "open_time": "2024-06-28T22:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-01T22:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-01T22:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on a far greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22523/us-employment-below-50-by-2027/) about employment falling below 50% by 2027._", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2030, the employment-population ratio in the U.S. falls below 30%. [Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm) will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics discontinues its employment-population data, then Metaculus admins will aim to find another resolution source. Failing that, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 22524, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757401379.448131, "end_time": 1763603160.943465, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757401379.448131, "end_time": 1763603160.943465, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.04666215964423445 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.7224340366811646, 1.0547703092486742, 1.3946539253147052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8977711700998559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.106359967620518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3379475799745117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288029.340675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288029.340675, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994587860135566, 0.0005412139864433742 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on a far greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22523/us-employment-below-50-by-2027/) about employment falling below 50% by 2027._" }, { "id": 22523, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?", "short_title": "U.S. Employment Below 50% by 2027", "url_title": "U.S. Employment Below 50% by 2027", "slug": "us-employment-below-50-by-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-21T17:43:38.146433Z", "published_at": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T23:48:51.609504Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 105, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false } } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22523, "title": "Will the U.S. employment to population ratio fall below 50% before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-04-21T17:43:38.146433Z", "open_time": "2024-05-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on an even greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22524/us-employment-below-30-by-2032/) about employment falling below 30% by 2030._", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, at any point before January 1, 2027, the employment-population ratio in the U.S. falls below 50%. [Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm) will be used as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "If the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics discontinues its employment-population data, then Metaculus admins will aim to find another resolution source. Failing that, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 22523, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758167458.949979, "end_time": 1758515427.620539, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758167458.949979, "end_time": 1758515427.620539, "forecaster_count": 63, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.014 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.03628031764568673 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.481059502450861, 3.3363603889734237, 2.050142500853073, 0.038437863825547335, 0.0, 0.044940167735447775, 0.0026392673132747033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03492060446249783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3917019996792684 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288701.024063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288701.024063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9947143365203654, 0.005285663479634546 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 224, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The two [noteworthy dips](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/employment-population-ratio.htm#:~:text=Employment%E2%80%93population%20ratio%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted&text=Data%20ranges%20from%2051.2%20to%2063.4.) in U.S. employment over the past twenty years came with the 2008 recession and the 2020 Covid pandemic. There is now [growing anxiety](https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20230418-ai-anxiety-artificial-intelligence-replace-jobs) that the upcoming AI revolution might displace jobs on an even greater scale, in everything from [art](https://www.forbes.com/sites/robsalkowitz/2022/09/16/ai-is-coming-for-commercial-art-jobs-can-it-be-stopped/) to [software engineering](https://www.reddit.com/r/artificial/comments/1bh4jl3/is_devin_ai_really_going_to_takeover_software/). This question aims to shed light on the likelihood of that happening.\n\n_See also [this companion question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/22524/us-employment-below-30-by-2032/) about employment falling below 30% by 2030._" }, { "id": 22470, "title": "Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Biden Polling Lead Over Trump May 20, 2024?", "url_title": "Biden Polling Lead Over Trump May 20, 2024?", "slug": "biden-polling-lead-over-trump-may-20-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-19T19:42:04.197876Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.862531Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 366, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22470, "title": "Will Joe Biden have a polling lead over Donald Trump on May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-19T19:42:04.197876Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T18:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election)\t will take place on November 5, 2024. Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party have each [secured enough delegates](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-elections-georgia-washington-mississippi-03-12-24/index.html) to clinch their party nominations. \n\nReal Clear Politics (RCP) [tracks polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) for the presidential race and computes a polling average for Biden and Trump. As of April 19, 2024, Trump is up 0.4 percentage points, having narrowed from a 2.0 percentage point polling lead for Trump on March 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [RealClearPolitics polling average](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) as of May 20, 2024, at 2 PM ET shows Biden with a lead over Trump.", "fine_print": "* The figure used will be that shown in the \"Spread\" column in the \"RCP Average\" row under the \"Polling Data\" heading. If this information is moved or rearranged Metaculus will use the equivalent figure in the revised format to resolve the question.\n\n* A lead will be considered any positive value shown for Biden. \"Tie\" or any other value that indicates Biden's polling average is equal to or below Trumps will result in the question resolving as **No**.\n\n* If the website is down or otherwise inaccessible to Metaculus at the scheduled time the question will resolve according to the polling average shown when first accessed by Metaculus after 2 PM ET and before May 21 ET. If the website remains inaccessible to Metaculus for the duration of that period the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22470, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153157.08754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153157.08754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.021378106370369795 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.491525712360456, 11.536492972295285, 3.9902738457210747, 0.8465102736539813, 0.2892838023597817, 0.09624376380337146, 1.4157566497927134, 0.2080675286370795, 0.000501170660562743, 0.052750197717481795, 0.3916390454886167, 0.0006762370325530284, 0.0003008923520572101, 0.0, 0.001690769425074397, 0.016389591606807474, 0.0004031404677871113, 0.00025650921232308737, 8.314337207373128e-08, 0.0, 0.003421468808973893, 0.0004102082459617565, 0.013461569240292194, 5.351543056364643e-07, 0.0, 0.009775616132984217, 0.00014548980997796583, 0.0001256217808421004, 2.3261062225868955e-05, 0.0, 0.00034898259915142456, 0.0, 3.883756592115159e-05, 6.829087134851832e-05, 0.004762046731157682, 0.0001996951308397768, 1.879570210875989e-05, 6.148379521620157e-05, 2.8350314571244732e-05, 1.2867870480404506e-06, 0.0001310745159927364, 1.2922549824288667e-05, 5.694698945789383e-05, 6.926160264838084e-08, 6.632990244809541e-05, 0.00026646687090173607, 0.00014853374353724236, 4.537768250612632e-05, 0.039749844851148304, 0.0, 3.989319997853958e-05, 3.734573675507013e-06, 7.635842782039193e-06, 0.0006212441822167927, 4.598003795200761e-08, 4.4794824310632114e-05, 1.0720244769779787e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018970337439817161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038794627470699317, 0.0, 2.0289888394765266e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8229642251762412e-06, 0.0, 4.571272170312005e-06, 8.844165414405432e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.222995111617281e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.235265140798457e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7632377807683914e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.207836942299524e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3508069722417555 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.61218919035307, "coverage": 0.9999642065777746, "baseline_score": 75.41014532453347, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 24.61218919035307, "baseline_archived_score": 75.41014532453347, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153157.166945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153157.166945, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.998672413183489, 0.0013275868165109732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1430, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 US Presidential Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election)\t will take place on November 5, 2024. Joe Biden of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party have each [secured enough delegates](https://www.cnn.com/politics/live-news/primary-elections-georgia-washington-mississippi-03-12-24/index.html) to clinch their party nominations. \n\nReal Clear Politics (RCP) [tracks polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden) for the presidential race and computes a polling average for Biden and Trump. As of April 19, 2024, Trump is up 0.4 percentage points, having narrowed from a 2.0 percentage point polling lead for Trump on March 1, 2024." }, { "id": 22465, "title": "Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Joe Biden International Trip April-May 2024?", "url_title": "Joe Biden International Trip April-May 2024?", "slug": "joe-biden-international-trip-april-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-19T17:37:29.978673Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.100590Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 321, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22465, "title": "Will President Biden make an international trip between April 24 and May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-19T17:37:29.978673Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-07T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-07T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T14:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "United States President Joe Biden has made [16 international trips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Joe_Biden) during his presidency. He has yet to make an international trip in 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that U.S. President Joe Biden has traveled outside of the United States at any point between April 24, 2024 and May 20, 2024, inclusive (in Eastern Time).", "fine_print": "- For the purposes of this question, \"United States\" means, collectively, the 50 states, Washington D.C., the five [inhabited territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States#Inhabited_territories) and nine [uninhabited territories](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States#Uninhabited_territories).\n\n- Only reports available before 9 am ET on May 21, 2024 will be considered for resolution. If it is reported after 9 am ET on May 21st that President Biden secretly began a trip that started during the window, the question will not be re-resolved.", "post_id": 22465, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716242364.827746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716242364.827746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.003554713889162117 ], "histogram": [ [ 27.932125708267396, 5.808335751656516, 0.3672207966303118, 0.002928482157181655, 0.14454597347297454, 0.05462141949120676, 7.873098488397666e-06, 0.0019959328662156124, 0.0018623459964595252, 0.0, 0.0010439805759421541, 0.0010146540574871117, 1.0802508646100487e-05, 2.75288949331955e-05, 0.0, 0.0006181909609635103, 0.0017947531271597233, 0.0011014270873148445, 6.367482410159759e-05, 4.082470311537132e-05, 0.0005176431338626748, 0.0, 5.2525325254865334e-05, 0.0, 0.0006533042420259153, 0.00016839253776998673, 0.0, 0.00027822090826193585, 1.5382270047455863e-05, 0.0, 5.289503572965701e-07, 0.0005941466488613522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.533808024947405e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007933258212598865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.5315385740218124e-05, 1.5491257836812995e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.146488386564339e-05, 0.0, 2.80120563528158e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005251372848493259, 2.1659408133736948e-05, 0.0003468568163736686, 0.0, 0.0, 7.288515393206958e-05, 8.018360479900413e-05, 4.5005871983402745e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021830008901066372, 0.0, 0.000856924553675415, 1.022390299281597e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4605054594773906e-05, 1.9176731049739428e-07, 1.689877140015774e-05, 6.383149792045218e-05, 5.949929924654126e-05, 3.58801220450721e-05, 7.255793267030154e-06, 0.000364686357915226, 0.001447676837596743, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3335112205363235e-07, 0.0, 0.00020706211544219366, 0.0, 1.9493976153897492e-05, 0.0, 3.6117864012148685e-06, 9.013990450352451e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008297915842058056 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 44.83183334713227, "coverage": 0.9999149159236521, "baseline_score": 88.10089796519696, "spot_peer_score": 51.646566518036025, "peer_archived_score": 44.83183334713227, "baseline_archived_score": 88.10089796519696, "spot_peer_archived_score": 51.646566518036025 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716242364.895828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716242364.895828, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 321, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1021, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "United States President Joe Biden has made [16 international trips](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_international_presidential_trips_made_by_Joe_Biden) during his presidency. He has yet to make an international trip in 2024." }, { "id": 22459, "title": "Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on May 20, 2024 than the 2011-2020 average?", "short_title": "Antarctic Ice in May 2024 Exceeds Average?", "url_title": "Antarctic Ice in May 2024 Exceeds Average?", "slug": "antarctic-ice-in-may-2024-exceeds-average", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-19T15:08:57.190216Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.568414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 301, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22459, "title": "Will there be more Antarctic sea ice on May 20, 2024 than the 2011-2020 average?", "created_at": "2024-04-19T15:08:57.190216Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, typically covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent. \n\nDuring the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. Antarctic sea ice also recorded a record minimum in peak extent in September 2023, setting a [new record low for most of the year](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-2023-was-an-exceptional-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice/).\n\nTypically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to the data reported in [the Antarctic version of this graph](https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/) from the National Snow & Ice Data Center, the area of Antarctic sea ice extent is greater on May 20, 2024 than the average from 2011-2020 for that date (10.511 million square kilometers as of April 19, 2024). The question will resolve when accessed by Metaculus on May 21, 2024.", "fine_print": "* As of April 19, 2024, the resolution source shows 10.511 million square kilometers for the May 20 average 2011-2020, however this figure could see revisions. The question will resolve according to the areas shown at the resolution source when accessed by Metaculus to resolve the question.\n* Note that the link defaults to the Arctic sea ice chart. The toggle must be clicked to see Antarctic sea ice.\n* The 2011-2020 Average can be viewed as a trendline by selecting it on the legend.", "post_id": 22459, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153165.771206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 301, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153165.771206, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 301, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.010555716851196016 ], "histogram": [ [ 25.12733481367376, 7.594139199732821, 0.13204660677520805, 0.0006330808582008154, 0.07915502823638709, 0.015324690406758585, 5.9259854741194404e-05, 9.122296956175793e-06, 9.851387386717025e-05, 0.00013036309512612823, 8.406893349155627e-05, 7.935363566830915e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 5.569408693441932e-05, 0.0, 6.815079980210931e-06, 1.8026622692684336e-06, 2.7313938742918563e-07, 7.672033975553548e-05, 5.911977190126397e-06, 6.896553114949555e-07, 0.0, 7.644017745710288e-06, 3.916265302184999e-06, 0.0, 6.982343183757416e-06, 0.0, 5.691124525988361e-05, 0.0, 1.0833326867784151e-05, 0.0, 0.013944714348347481, 0.0, 1.2007635431809053e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.16103496120245e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.190804348541054e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.271481316458964e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 2.979564420893091e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3911581366346e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2184826534981347e-05, 0.0, 6.749987037333722e-05, 0.0, 9.945407431189015e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.261181574642357e-05, 0.0, 7.198146540697525e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23752665426447422 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.294557808683354, "coverage": 0.9999918986261047, "baseline_score": 97.25070901821809, "spot_peer_score": 37.63924438278393, "peer_archived_score": 18.294557808683354, "baseline_archived_score": 97.25070901821809, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.63924438278393 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153165.865677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 301, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153165.865677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 301, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 834, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Antarctic sea ice is a vital component of the Earth's climate system, typically covering an area of more than 18 million square kilometers at its annual maximum extent. \n\nDuring the summer in the southern hemisphere, sea ice is at a minimum. In February 2023, Antarctic sea ice levels hit [new record lows](https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-64649596), breaking the previous record set just a year earlier. Antarctic sea ice also recorded a record minimum in peak extent in September 2023, setting a [new record low for most of the year](https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-2023-was-an-exceptional-year-for-antarctic-sea-ice/).\n\nTypically, sea ice levels begin to recover in late February or early March." }, { "id": 22415, "title": "Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?", "short_title": "Trump Testifies at Hush Money Trial?", "url_title": "Trump Testifies at Hush Money Trial?", "slug": "trump-testifies-at-hush-money-trial", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-15T04:07:58.256342Z", "published_at": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.957026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22415, "title": "Will Donald Trump testify at the hush money trial?", "created_at": "2024-04-15T04:07:58.256342Z", "open_time": "2024-04-17T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-20T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-20T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-06-15T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-21T14:32:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called \"hush money\" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. The trial centers around allegations that Trump, during the 2016 presidential campaign, orchestrated a hush money payment to an adult film actress to prevent damaging stories from surfacing. This payment, and similar transactions, are claimed by the Manhattan district attorney to have been unlawfully logged as legal expenses by Trump’s company.\n\nThe trial is scheduled to commence on April 15th, 2024 and is expected to last approximately six weeks.\n\n*This question is part of the Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup, however, if the trial has not concluded when the tournament ends on July 8, 2024, it will not be scored in the Quarterly Cup. It will still count as part of the annual leaderboard.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report Donald Trump has testified, whether in person or remotely, at the [trial](https://iapps.courts.state.ny.us/webcrim_attorney/Detail?which=case&docketNumber=q23XFOwZRDQ1d4LrNRdw2clqCMt/CzUoG/kRII/7Nmg=&countyId=K4i18rFVPQh5HTQ/kUoO3Q==&docketId=3Y4iKU5oHM75AtDme2cPhw==&docketDseq=T/O1YN_PLUS_BG65HkOeqEnpAkw==&defendantName=TRUMP,+DONALD&court=New+York+Supreme+Criminal+Court&courtType=U&recordType=U&recordNum=) concerning the so-called \"hush money\" payments to Stormy Daniels.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22415, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716302481.682086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716302481.682086, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.031061825746890103 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.5652573397589977, 10.875826480477647, 0.3638339786691888, 0.5381841818608172, 0.47572901100201265, 0.4846846242754037, 1.0928425626983087, 0.13702143948282391, 0.20622437320935438, 0.1312015730709764, 0.5612680275356114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20178648011237701, 0.5146013799864679, 0.06585270037607036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17218393912476843, 0.019440665917616475, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043966556567804835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06308080255777047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011740563879277114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0061133516164967525, 0.005226339774603747, 0.0, 0.0018212754359516522, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004222618160365907, 0.0, 0.0015895181711987486, 0.001379858935095631, 0.002076872183638831, 0.08822087566696155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011906560386692468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024412630734546445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008675168513705744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028447386743221566, 0.0, 0.01111357661632158, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030057296334305714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005002583573277096 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.575441475706397, "coverage": 0.579737267669804, "baseline_score": 29.9943868395043, "spot_peer_score": 18.921193086909916, "peer_archived_score": 14.575441475706397, "baseline_archived_score": 29.9943868395043, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.921193086909916 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716283331.233197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716283331.233197, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9975052005700773, 0.0024947994299227326 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 416, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The commencement of Donald Trump's [trial in the so-called \"hush money\" case](https://thehill.com/regulation/court-battles/4589001-5-things-to-know-ahead-of-trumps-hush-money-trial/) marks a historic moment as he becomes the first former U.S. president to face criminal charges in court. 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It will still count as part of the annual leaderboard.*" }, { "id": 22403, "title": "Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?", "url_title": "Israel Deadly Attack on Iran Before May 2024?", "slug": "israel-deadly-attack-on-iran-before-may-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-13T21:35:02.868594Z", "published_at": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.295688Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-13T22:04:51.200604Z", "comment_count": 55, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 188, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22403, "title": "Will Israel carry out a deadly attack within Iran before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T21:35:02.868594Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-13T22:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israeli airstrike earlier in the month](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240#:~:text=An%20Israeli%20airstrike%20in%20a,at%20least%20five%20Iranian%20advisers.), which struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officers, including three high-ranking commanders, intensifying Iran's resolve to respond.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Israel and occurring within Iran's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n- Occur within the internationally recognized borders of Iran. Iran's internal waters and territorial sea (the latter being Iran's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Iran\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Iran.\"\n- Israel must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Israel's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n- The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n- The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Israel will meet this criterion.", "post_id": 22403, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714538228.494976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714538228.494976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.006 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0190352170484517 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.434651751450073, 14.900486885104097, 1.0249612381843634, 0.4027530758800595, 0.11267552541715342, 0.5746168679417991, 0.09280362732725916, 0.010758444363451216, 0.48492412810061014, 0.07812393778734172, 0.1652521502992917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005187082526050941, 0.0, 0.026207760141252076, 0.0, 0.001973405739221917, 0.0016105181627922883, 0.0, 0.005120145818464545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4910009576402285, 0.020522927048885906, 0.0009789997041040929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0026805035591994123, 0.0, 0.0021091404892904075, 0.0012170696924959827, 0.0, 0.009822809351416623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003522061774533215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005277461334024565, 0.005699906798107319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00013429419526925934, 0.0, 0.005071787152149256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001818570376078752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005548996211789952, 0.008133777104706752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042489679133293637, 0.0013067117799961463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002736543845881099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027491534235998833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002977467838088582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00469587643000096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017244623254925426, 0.0, 1.2854463433568096e-05, 0.0, 8.200551082231178e-06, 0.0014019645552389801, 0.011782646294958477 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 66.15992764929526, "coverage": 0.9997527401577037, "baseline_score": 79.42254317497269, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 66.15992764929526, "baseline_archived_score": 79.42254317497269, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714538228.549801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714538228.549801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 188, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 745, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In a significant escalation of regional tensions, [Iran launched a coordinated aerial attack targeting Israeli territory on April 13, 2024](https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-tries-to-calibrate-response-against-israel-after-deadly-bombing-abb38b57). This action by Iran came as a direct retaliation for an [Israeli airstrike earlier in the month](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240#:~:text=An%20Israeli%20airstrike%20in%20a,at%20least%20five%20Iranian%20advisers.), which struck the Iranian Embassy complex in Damascus, Syria, which resulted in the deaths of seven Iranian officers, including three high-ranking commanders, intensifying Iran's resolve to respond." }, { "id": 22394, "title": "Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?", "short_title": "Interest Rate Cut More Likely After May FOMC?", "url_title": "Interest Rate Cut More Likely After May FOMC?", "slug": "interest-rate-cut-more-likely-after-may-fomc", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-13T03:58:53.770218Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.156795Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 407, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22394, "title": "Will an interest rate cut below current levels occur or increase in likelihood for June following the May 1, 2024 Federal Open Market Committee meeting?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T03:58:53.770218Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-01T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm) is a key monetary policy-making body in the United States responsible for implementing and overseeing the country's monetary policy. The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [April 30-May 1, 2024](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). The CME Group's [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) calculates probabilities of rate cuts and hikes using 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices. Its methodology is described [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/understanding-the-cme-group-fedwatch-tool-methodology.html), and a video overview is available [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/videos/introduction-to-cme-fedwatch.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) either announces a decrease in the federal funds rate on May 1, 2024, **or** if following the FOMC's statement on May 1 the [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) reports that the probability of a rate cut at the FOMC's June meeting has increased relative to the day prior.", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the question will resolve as **Yes** if the following occurs when the FOMC makes its statement on May 1, 2024 following its meeting:\n * If the FOMC announces a decrease in the target [federal funds rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) on May 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n * If the FOMC does **not** announce a decrease in the target [federal funds rate](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm) on May 1, 2024, this question will resolve as **Yes** if the \"TARGET RATE PROBABILITIES FOR 12 JUN 2024 FED MEETING\" reported by the [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html), when checked at 4:30pm ET on May 1, 2024, shows a higher cumulative probability for rate cuts relative to the current target rate in the \"Now\" column when compared to the \"1 Day (30 April 2024)\" column.\n * If none of the above conditions occur, this question will resolve as **No**.\n* The relevant information in the CME FedWatch Tool can be found by selecting \"Current\" under \"Target Rate\" on the left side and selecting \"12 Jun24\" in the top window.\n* If a decrease in the target federal funds rate is announced before the April 30-May 1 meeting this question will 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The FOMC is composed of 12 members, which includes the seven members of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and five of the 12 Federal Reserve Bank presidents, who serve on a rotating basis. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, [Jerome Powell](https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/bios/board/powell.htm) also serves as the Chair of the FOMC.\n\nThe primary responsibility of the FOMC is to set monetary policy in order to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates. To achieve these goals, the FOMC engages in open market operations, which involve the buying and selling of U.S. government securities in order to influence the federal funds rate, the interest rate at which banks lend to each other overnight. The FOMC also sets the target range for the federal funds rate and communicates its policy decisions to the public through press releases and the Chair's press conferences. As a result, the decisions made by the FOMC have a significant impact on the U.S. economy and financial markets, making it an important focus of attention for economists, investors, and policymakers.\n\nThe next FOMC meeting will be [April 30-May 1, 2024](https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm). The CME Group's [CME FedWatch Tool](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html) calculates probabilities of rate cuts and hikes using 30-Day Federal Funds futures prices. Its methodology is described [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/articles/2023/understanding-the-cme-group-fedwatch-tool-methodology.html), and a video overview is available [here](https://www.cmegroup.com/education/videos/introduction-to-cme-fedwatch.html)." } ] }
](http://channel](https://media.defense.gov/2024/Apr/15/2003439563/2000/2000/0/240415-A-A1420-1002.PNG)){kind=link}
