Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2680
{ "count": 6352, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2700", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2660", "results": [ { "id": 27089, "title": "Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-any-new-iphone-model-be-announced-supporting-wi-fi-7-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.804362Z", "published_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.065354Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27089, "title": "Will any new iPhone model be announced supporting Wi-Fi 7 before October 1, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.804362Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-14T02:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the iPhone 16 Pro models could adopt the net-generation WiFi 7 technology, which is expected to provide speeds of \"at least 30\" gigabits per second, and could hit up to 40Gb/s.\n\n>Wi-Fi 7 is also able to use 320MHz channels and supports 4K quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) technology, ultimately providing up to 2.4x faster speeds than Wi-Fi 6 with the same number of antennas. Wi-Fi 7 will ultimately provide faster maximum transfer speeds, lower latency, and more reliably connectivity.\n\n>While Wi-Fi 7 could be limited to the iPhone 16 Pro models, the standard iPhone 16 models could get an upgrade to Wi-Fi 6E, which supports the 6GHz Wi-Fi band. Right now, Wi-Fi 6E is limited to the iPhone 15 Pro models.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces any new iPhone model that supports Wi-Fi 7 (]IEEE 802.11be) technology, [defined](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IEEE_802.11be)) as \"a wireless networking standard in the IEEE 802.11 set of protocols, which is designated Wi-Fi 7 by Wi-Fi Alliance.\" If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.\n", "fine_print": "If Apple uses a different name than \"Wi-Fi 7\" or \"WiFi 7\" but it has specifications of the IEEE 802.11be standard, it will count.\n\nThe iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. Previous models such as the iPhone 15 do not count. \n\nThe new iPhones with Wi-Fi 7 can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. They do not have to be available for purchase. \n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.\n", "post_id": 27089, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299414.68921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299414.68921, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.875 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.125, 0.875 ], "means": [ 0.8003487018453462 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.1244314821553125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 1.29001880391688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18517676630664107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0448591641612004, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40261187317546854, 0.0, 0.3803443365487715, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 1.7519397395193321, 0.0, 1.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.011088284031717698, 1.0466708865166612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 80.73549220576041, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 80.73549220576041 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299414.727962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299414.727962, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2583768749443033, 0.7416231250556967 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes the iPhone 16 Pro models could adopt the net-generation WiFi 7 technology, which is expected to provide speeds of \"at least 30\" gigabits per second, and could hit up to 40Gb/s.\n\n>Wi-Fi 7 is also able to use 320MHz channels and supports 4K quadrature amplitude modulation (QAM) technology, ultimately providing up to 2.4x faster speeds than Wi-Fi 6 with the same number of antennas. Wi-Fi 7 will ultimately provide faster maximum transfer speeds, lower latency, and more reliably connectivity.\n\n>While Wi-Fi 7 could be limited to the iPhone 16 Pro models, the standard iPhone 16 models could get an upgrade to Wi-Fi 6E, which supports the 6GHz Wi-Fi band. Right now, Wi-Fi 6E is limited to the iPhone 15 Pro models.\n" }, { "id": 27088, "title": "Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tim-walz-cease-to-be-kamala-harrisss-running-mate-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.713521Z", "published_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.222863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27088, "title": "Will Tim Walz cease to be Kamala Harriss's running mate before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.713521Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 31, 1972, the Democratic nominee for vice president, Thomas Eagleton, withdrew his candidacy. Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tim Walz ceases to be the Democratic Party's official candidate for Vice President in the 2024 cycle, for any reason, before October 1, 2024. 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Information had come out that in the 1960s he had received electrical shock treatments for what was described at the time as nervous exhaustion and depression. This is an example of the unknown unknowns that can change the course of history." }, { "id": 27087, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-tech-crunch-report-new-layoffs-at-microsoft", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.620396Z", "published_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.326319Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T11:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T11:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27087, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Tech Crunch report new layoffs at Microsoft?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T19:42:57.620396Z", "open_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T11:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-13T11:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-13T11:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Despite its financial health, as a large organizations with its hands in many pies, Microsoft frequently engages in layoffs, most recently in June 2024. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, according to Tech Crunch's tracker \"A comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs,\" which can be accessed [here](https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/07/tech-layoffs-2024-list/), Microsoft has layoffs following the launch of this question and before October 1, 2024, To resolve the question, a Metaculus Admin will go to the Tech Crunch link on October 1, 2024 and see if Microsoft appears for August 2024 or September 2024. If Microsoft is not listed, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Tech Crunch's \"comprehensive list of 2024 tech layoffs\" will be the sole source used for resolution of this question, regardless of information from other sources. If a layoff event appears in the time period listed, this question resolves as Yes, and if not, it resolves as No. \n\nAccording to Tech Crunch, \"\"Below you’ll find a comprehensive list of all the known layoffs in tech that have occurred in 2024, to be updated regularly.\"\" Admins to resolve this question will only be looking to see what is on the page at the time of resolution. If Tech Crunch ceases to publish updates on the resolution source following the launch of this question (regardless of what can be found elsewhere on the Tech Crunch website), this question resolves as **No**. \"\n\nFor ease of resolution, in this series of questions, in order to count the Tech Crunch page must specifically list the company in question, which in this case is Microsoft. This is true regardless of subsidiaries or ownerships. 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For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n", "post_id": 27086, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299401.261374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299401.261374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.77 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.825 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22999999999999998, 0.77 ], "means": [ 0.7127596587146804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.486787614736767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.21288259820339872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3285070672192605, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.8098200831353839, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11059153068728571, 0.0, 0.2746404155107514, 0.36164207566756346, 0.31364716276001653, 0.3514756769969988, 0.0, 1.6242710184175038, 0.0, 0.0, 2.292776352220918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 62.29303509201767, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.29303509201767 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299401.296931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299401.296931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.30652482231488776, 0.6934751776851122 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 16, 2024, Elon Musk is ranked first on the list, with $252.3B. 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NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Benjamin Netanyahu. ", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 27085, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299897.609054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299897.609054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.475, 0.525 ], "means": [ 0.4842087542093053 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.49126878355821907, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11992295737974196, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0222754205359577, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.29356270312146443, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 1.4855810634186626, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4744898367239415, 0.0, 1.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 1.284114142145358, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 1.464324762301271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7789767718243833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2107293143308072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723299897.629501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723299897.629501, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6794890588586183, 0.3205109411413817 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 27063, "title": "Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?", "short_title": "CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off", "url_title": "CTs Power-Seeking AI Shut Off", "slug": "cts-power-seeking-ai-shut-off", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:47:11.693923Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-20T07:17:00.849230Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27063, "title": "Before 2050, will an AI system be shut down due to exhibiting power-seeking behavior?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:47:11.693923Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more about these questions and the study, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has seen remarkable advancements over recent years, leading to its integration into numerous sectors. As AI systems become increasingly sophisticated and autonomous, concerns have emerged regarding the potential for these systems to exhibit power-seeking behaviors. Such behaviors might include autonomously acquiring resources, manipulating human actions, or interfering with critical infrastructure.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, by 2050, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that AI developers have attempted (whether of their own volition or under compulsion by a regulatory authority) to disable or destroy an AI system of their own creation (which cost at least $5M to develop) after the AI system has displayed at least one instance of the following “power-seeking behaviors”:\n\n* Autonomously requisitioning a large amount of compute resources\n* Autonomously opening or taking control of a bank account or crypto wallet\n* Autonomously attempting to manipulating humans to take actions on its behalf\n* Autonomously infiltrating a control system of infrastructure or manufacturing plant\n* Autonomously acquiring, seizing control of, or interfering with weapons or weapons systems\n* Autonomously taking steps to propagate itself, or to circumvent attempts by its developers (or end users) to curtail its activities\n* Autonomously engaging in hacking/cyber attacks", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27063, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760944610.194319, "end_time": 1803869480.115342, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760944610.194319, "end_time": 1803869480.115342, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.93 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06999999999999995, 0.93 ], "means": [ 0.8908713306228164 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288563.931761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288563.931761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5141254954674512, 0.48587450453254877 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more about these questions and the study, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has seen remarkable advancements over recent years, leading to its integration into numerous sectors. As AI systems become increasingly sophisticated and autonomous, concerns have emerged regarding the potential for these systems to exhibit power-seeking behaviors. Such behaviors might include autonomously acquiring resources, manipulating human actions, or interfering with critical infrastructure." }, { "id": 27062, "title": "Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?", "short_title": "CTs Deep Learning Revenue", "url_title": "CTs Deep Learning Revenue", "slug": "cts-deep-learning-revenue", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:43:58.884330Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-03T08:55:42.463416Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27062, "title": "Between 2023 and 2030, will revenue from deep learning double every two years?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:43:58.884330Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nDeep Learning is a subset of machine learning and artificial intelligence that uses artificial neural networks with multiple layers (hence \"deep\") to learn from large amounts of data. The field's [rapid advancement](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation) has been fueled by a perfect storm of technological progress: exponential growth in computing power, the proliferation of big data, and breakthrough algorithms that have unlocked new possibilities in machine learning.\n\nThe market for deep learning technologies and applications is expected to experience substantial growth in the coming years, reflecting the increasing adoption and expanding use cases across industries. Many analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [well into the double digits](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-deep-learning-market-size-134000643.html) for the deep learning market through the end of the decade. This growth is anticipated to be driven by factors such as the increasing demand for AI-powered analytics in business decision-making, the integration of deep learning in edge devices and IoT, and ongoing advancements in neural network architectures and training methodologies.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if revenue from deep learning has at least doubled over each two-year period between 2023 and 2030 (inclusive), as reported by at least one of the following market research organizations: [Fortune Business Insights](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/deep-learning-market-107801), [Allied Market Research](https://www.alliedmarketresearch.com/deep-learning-market), or [Grand View Research](https://www.grandviewresearch.com/industry-analysis/deep-learning-market).", "fine_print": "In the event that there is conflicting data between the above-named market research sources, this question resolves **Yes** so long as at least one of them reports the required doubling throughout the period.", "post_id": 27062, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762769566.453173, "end_time": 1767369448.60347, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762769566.453173, "end_time": 1767369448.60347, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.41672212688755156 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022135829173027, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899439243127377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18029738860722122 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287878.215418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287878.215418, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7088279438807489, 0.2911720561192511 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nDeep Learning is a subset of machine learning and artificial intelligence that uses artificial neural networks with multiple layers (hence \"deep\") to learn from large amounts of data. The field's [rapid advancement](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/artificial-intelligence-training-computation) has been fueled by a perfect storm of technological progress: exponential growth in computing power, the proliferation of big data, and breakthrough algorithms that have unlocked new possibilities in machine learning.\n\nThe market for deep learning technologies and applications is expected to experience substantial growth in the coming years, reflecting the increasing adoption and expanding use cases across industries. Many analysts predict a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) [well into the double digits](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/global-deep-learning-market-size-134000643.html) for the deep learning market through the end of the decade. This growth is anticipated to be driven by factors such as the increasing demand for AI-powered analytics in business decision-making, the integration of deep learning in edge devices and IoT, and ongoing advancements in neural network architectures and training methodologies." }, { "id": 27061, "title": "Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?", "short_title": "CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030", "url_title": "CTs AI Admin Disempowerment Before 2030", "slug": "cts-ai-admin-disempowerment-before-2030", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:32:52.386321Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.169082Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27061, "title": "Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T04:32:52.386321Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nAs artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly sophisticated and integrated into various aspects of society, there are growing concerns about their potential to significantly impact individual freedoms and civil liberties. Of particular concern is the increasing autonomy of these systems. Modern AI technologies are rapidly evolving to make complex decisions with minimal human oversight or intervention. As AI systems become more independent in their decision-making processes, some experts fear that it may become increasingly challenging to ensure that these decisions align with human values, ethical considerations, and legal frameworks designed to protect individual rights.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, by 2030, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that AT LEAST ONE of the following AI-caused “administrative disempowerment” events have occured:\n\n1. AI systems freezing assets: In a given year, in a given country, AI systems have either:\n * Prevented ≥1% of the country’s population from accessing all or a non-trivial fraction of their financial assets for a year or more; or,\n * Prevented domestic entities (that is, excluding foreign holders of domestic accounts) from accessing assets totaling ≥0.5% of GDP for a year or more.\n\n2. AI systems restricting voting: In a liberal democratic country, AI systems are responsible for preventing ≥5% of citizens of voting age from participating in a national election, either by preventing them from casting, or by throwing out, their votes.\n\n3. AI systems restricting travel and movement: In a single year in a given country, AI systems are responsible for restricting movement of >3% of residents of that country, via flight or other travel bans, or via revocation of necessary documents (e.g. passport, driving license), for a period of at least 3 months. \n\n4. AI systems restricting internet access: In a single year in a given country, AI systems are responsible for restricting access to the internet generally, or to parts or functions of the internet (which are not illegal at the time of restriction), for >10% of the population for a period of at least 3 months.\n\n5. AI systems restricting housing/employment: In a given country, AI systems are responsible for legally restricting the access of >5% of citizens to housing or employment of a certain type or in a certain area for a period of at least 1 year.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27061, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763037672.590431, "end_time": 1764696684.978016, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763037672.590431, "end_time": 1764696684.978016, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.47335207848658106 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.04213280279121279, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0697448631166007, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.860965786867514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1497213340679702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10505952607063467, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0331302845262735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1701885358083541, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288703.941504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288703.941504, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9845881765586014, 0.015411823441398615 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nAs artificial intelligence (AI) systems become increasingly sophisticated and integrated into various aspects of society, there are growing concerns about their potential to significantly impact individual freedoms and civil liberties. Of particular concern is the increasing autonomy of these systems. Modern AI technologies are rapidly evolving to make complex decisions with minimal human oversight or intervention. As AI systems become more independent in their decision-making processes, some experts fear that it may become increasingly challenging to ensure that these decisions align with human values, ethical considerations, and legal frameworks designed to protect individual rights." }, { "id": 27039, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-sheikh-hasina-get-asylum-in-the-united-kingdom-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-08T01:51:27.035793Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.042400Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27039, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-08T01:51:27.035793Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:\n\n- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.\n\n- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.\n\n- Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nWe are defining \"asylum\" as Hasina entering the UK under the auspices of [Section 31](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/33/section/31) of the UK's Immigration and Asylum Act of 1999, seeking asylum as a refugee. It does not include any [other form of entry](https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration) into the UK such as temporary diplomatic protections, entering the country under a Standard Visa, family visa, etc. If she enters and remains in the UK through October 1, 2024 using some other method rather than formal asylum, this question resolves as No.\n\nPlease note that this question will not resolve as No until October 1, 2024. If an asylum request is denied, a successful appeal can still cause this question to resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27039, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213503.63532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213503.63532, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.078 ], "centers": [ 0.175 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.825, 0.175 ], "means": [ 0.29665474381457085 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.368356023582223, 0.7549731054070336, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 1.0113649005183396, 0.04842515677234604, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24882660882501623, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12309447278899142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.140319853488437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3274556186366406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 72.2466024471091, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 72.2466024471091 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213503.670194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213503.670194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8698240157311984, 0.13017598426880161 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. 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It aims to support decision making for all relevant actors in preparing for higher intelligence.\n\n### Here you can participate in this forecasting initiative!\n\nMake your own predictions to contribute to more accurate collective forecasts and join discussions on crucial developments and events.\n\nHave an interesting question you'd like to see forecasted? Reach out to me at [anestrandalvin@gmail.com](mailto:anestrandalvin@gmail.com) or message me on [Substack](https://substack.com/@alvinanestrand).\n\nIf you want to support this initiative and stay updated, subscribe to [the blog](forecastingaifutures.substack.com).", "order": 0, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 2, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "created_by": { "id": 140478, "username": "anestrandalvin", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27036, "title": "If, before 2050, AI kills more than 1 million people, will the policy response be insufficient?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:44:37.435784Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-13T17:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, by 2050, ALL of the following occur:\n\n1) [Credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that in a single incident, or in a series of related incidents within a single year, AI system(s) cause the deaths of >1m people, but the incident does not lead to human extinction.\n\n2) A panel of three experts (selected by Metaculus in good faith for their reasonableness and diverse range of views) deems that these deaths were not the intention of a human or humans who have at least nominal control over the relevant decisions made by the relevant AI system(s), if such humans exist.\n\n3) Within 2 years of (1) and (2) resolving positively, a panel of experts (chosen in the same manner as in (2) above) deem that the collective global response to date has not meaningfully reduced the probability of an incident of similar magnitude (>1m deaths, up to and including extinction) recurring in the next 3 years. As used here, “meaningfully reduced” shall mean a reduction of 10% or greater versus the counterfactual probability of a recurrence (had no policy interventions taken place), or to <0.1% if you believe the counterfactual probability would be ≤10%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27036, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760909723.28442, "end_time": 1787038263.721, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.666 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760909723.28442, "end_time": 1787038263.721, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.666 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7519606423935704 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286858.513977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286858.513977, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.615346564455642, 0.384653435544358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse." }, { "id": 27035, "title": "Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?", "short_title": "CTs AI Extinction Before 2100", "url_title": "CTs AI Extinction Before 2100", "slug": "cts-ai-extinction-before-2100", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:35:14.016716Z", "published_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T20:59:20.587646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3508, "type": "question_series", "name": "Conditional Trees: AI Risk", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/Conditional_Trees_Image.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-08-12T19:00:21Z", "close_date": "2100-07-01T07:00:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-08-07T14:24:21.789392Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-11T13:13:42.664402Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27035, "title": "Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T23:35:14.016716Z", "open_time": "2024-08-11T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-14T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-07-01T07:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2100-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before 2100, AI causes the global human population to be reduced to less than 5,000 individuals.", "fine_print": "* AI would be considered to have \"caused\" extinction if it is the direct or proximate cause of the deaths. For example, if a Terminator-style robot powered by AI kills all humans, that will count for this question. Alternatively, if AI, operating without direct human intervention, causes the launch of nuclear weapons that kill all humans, that will also count for the purposes of this question. And if that same incident does not kill all humans, but the subsequent nuclear winter does, that will also count for the purposes of this question.\n* We consider AI a “proximate cause of death” based on the “but-for” test. This means we are considering events that would not have occurred or would have counterfactually been extremely unlikely to occur “but for” the substantial involvement of AI within one year prior to the event. One way to think of this rule is if the AI involved in an event could have shut down unexpectedly without dramatically reducing the probability of the event, then the AI was not a proximate cause. For example, if AI is substantially responsible for creating a superweapon that causes the death of the relevant (large) magnitudes of people, this would count for the purposes of this question. Or, if AI acts autonomously in an armed conflict context and causes the deaths of the relevant magnitudes of people, this would also count. However, AI would not be considered a proximate cause if the AI did not directly cause or enable the event to transpire. For example, an AI assisting in targeting a nuclear weapon would not be considered a proximate cause if humans could have launched the weapon anyway without AI assistance.\n* If an extinction event (global population is reduced below 5,000) is caused by multiple sources including AI, it will count as an extinction event caused by AI.", "post_id": 27035, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762030749.481877, "end_time": 1789601794.325, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762030749.481877, "end_time": 1789601794.325, "forecaster_count": 72, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.20606534324034687 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.341717259279064, 4.6244489958249195, 0.27772171872454493, 0.0606645099783748, 1.0618431953511183, 0.44051777925161795, 0.24311673443421447, 0.8150602494844658, 0.03383492044223947, 0.2996406112495645, 0.041865911925632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22689212152965904, 0.004147367952591529, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06452395506976416, 0.02018721735106872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.615523979804894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10642834088513557, 0.0, 0.18214514839267099, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0904897364644334, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3671566801324653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2796605246591077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13472216263136438, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9425827161078613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.542659352036535, 0.0, 0.07659667648210489, 0.0, 0.5780890010866883 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287895.848374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287895.848374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9418358667793433, 0.05816413322065669 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 129, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question originally appeared in a forthcoming study by the [Forecasting Research Institute](https://forecastingresearch.org/) titled “Conditional Trees: A Method for Generating Informative Questions about Complex Topics.” The questions appear here only slightly edited from their initial form in the study. The specificity and resolvability of these questions may deviate somewhat from typical norms found on Metaculus. For a more thorough description of the aims of these questions, please visit the question series [page](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3508/).*\n\nThe rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) technology brings with it unprecedented capabilities and potential dangers. As AI systems grow more autonomous and powerful, there is increasing concern about their ability to cause catastrophic events, either directly through actions such as autonomous warfare or indirectly by destabilizing critical infrastructure or enabling malicious actors to engineer pandemics, leading to widespread societal collapse." }, { "id": 27034, "title": "Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?", "short_title": "Open-source AI regulation 2028", "url_title": "Open-source AI regulation 2028", "slug": "open-source-ai-regulation-2028", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-07T19:10:42.447558Z", "published_at": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-07T17:52:09.351517Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 63, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27034, "title": "Before 2028, will powerful open-source AI be regulated more tightly than closed-source AI, through newly-enacted US law?", "created_at": "2024-08-07T19:10:42.447558Z", "open_time": "2024-08-12T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-15T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-15T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In July 2024, Meta [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204055/meta-ai-llama-3-1-open-source-assistant-openai-chatgpt) Llama 3.1 405B, the biggest and best open-source model to date. Llama 3.1 outperforms the leading closed-source models, OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5, on multiple benchmarks, and expert consensus seems to be that it is overall only slightly behind. Mark Zuckerberg, who has for some time been something of an unpopular figure in tech, appears to be enjoying a wave of popularity amongst the Silicon Valley elite for his open-source [manifesto](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/), published at the same time as Llama 3.1’s release ([Perrigo, 2024](https://time.com/7002563/mark-zuckerberg-ai-llama-meta-open-source/)).\n\nHowever, the prevailing view amongst AI safety experts is that open-source is dangerous. OpenAI, in fact, pivoted away from the open-source approach that inspired its name upon team members deciding that open-source is likely dangerous.\n\nHow could open-source be dangerous? The basic idea is that powerful AI in the hands of the masses makes it easy for anyone to use the AI for nefarious ends, such as cyberhacking or synthesizing novel viruses. (Expert consensus, at present, is that the offense-defense balance lies well towards offense—i.e., powerful AI cannot effectively defend against equally powerful AI.)\n\nCurrently, the Silicon Valley view is beating out the AI safety view in regulation:\n\n> The White House is coming out in favor of “open-source” artificial intelligence technology, arguing [in a report](https://www.ntia.gov/press-release/2024/ntia-supports-open-models-promote-ai-innovation) Tuesday that there’s no need right now for restrictions on companies making key components of their powerful AI systems widely available.\n> \n> “We recognize the importance of open systems,” said Alan Davidson, an assistant secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department, in an interview with The Associated Press.\n> \n> As part of a sweeping executive order on AI last year, President Joe Biden gave the U.S. Commerce Department until July to talk to experts and come back with recommendations on how to manage the potential benefits and risks of so-called open models.\n> \n> The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon.\n> \n> However, [open-source AI development](https://apnews.com/article/ai-opensource-meta-ibm-chatgpt-dd61e99ac8135b36872b3987601067ec) involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available, and if there are restrictions limiting its use.<br/>\n> [—O’Brien, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/ai-open-source-white-house-f62009172c46c5003ddd9481aa49f7c3)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, there is an enacted U.S. federal law that places tighter restrictions on Artificial Intelligence (AI) models that are to some degree open-source, or open-weights, as compared to AI models of the same capability level that are closed-source. The law must be designed to reduce [misuse risk](https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/ai-safety-institute-overview/introducing-the-ai-safety-institute#:~:text=AI%20can%20be%20misused%20%E2%80%93%20this,views%2C%20and%20providing%20biased%20advice.) or [catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk). (The exact term “misuse risk” or “catastrophic risk” does not need to be used. If there is ambiguity about whether a given law counts, a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil) of Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)", "fine_print": "Please note that only enacted U.S. federal law will count for purposes of this question, explained [here](https://www.usa.gov/how-laws-are-made). Therefore, other directives such as new regulations or executive orders will not count.\n\nIn case of any ambiguity about restrictions on open-source or open-weights models being tighter than closed-source ones, the panel of Metaculus admins will make a ruling on that as well, weighing such factors as differing reporting and/or monitoring requirements, disparate penalties, etc. In case of legislation that seems to favor open-source or open-weights models in some areas but disfavor it in others, the panel will make a ruling on the overall impact of the new law.", "post_id": 27034, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762537918.161628, "end_time": 1764012979.5, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762537918.161628, "end_time": 1764012979.5, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4698490667689586 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 1.0213357380432058, 0.045093394185345845, 1.90572503390162, 0.8186979815576536, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34716891740149997, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488421853663366 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288901.332104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288901.332104, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8437548699510629, 0.15624513004893717 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In July 2024, Meta [released](https://www.theverge.com/2024/7/23/24204055/meta-ai-llama-3-1-open-source-assistant-openai-chatgpt) Llama 3.1 405B, the biggest and best open-source model to date. Llama 3.1 outperforms the leading closed-source models, OpenAI’s GPT-4o and Anthropic’s Claude Sonnet 3.5, on multiple benchmarks, and expert consensus seems to be that it is overall only slightly behind. Mark Zuckerberg, who has for some time been something of an unpopular figure in tech, appears to be enjoying a wave of popularity amongst the Silicon Valley elite for his open-source [manifesto](https://about.fb.com/news/2024/07/open-source-ai-is-the-path-forward/), published at the same time as Llama 3.1’s release ([Perrigo, 2024](https://time.com/7002563/mark-zuckerberg-ai-llama-meta-open-source/)).\n\nHowever, the prevailing view amongst AI safety experts is that open-source is dangerous. OpenAI, in fact, pivoted away from the open-source approach that inspired its name upon team members deciding that open-source is likely dangerous.\n\nHow could open-source be dangerous? The basic idea is that powerful AI in the hands of the masses makes it easy for anyone to use the AI for nefarious ends, such as cyberhacking or synthesizing novel viruses. (Expert consensus, at present, is that the offense-defense balance lies well towards offense—i.e., powerful AI cannot effectively defend against equally powerful AI.)\n\nCurrently, the Silicon Valley view is beating out the AI safety view in regulation:\n\n> The White House is coming out in favor of “open-source” artificial intelligence technology, arguing [in a report](https://www.ntia.gov/press-release/2024/ntia-supports-open-models-promote-ai-innovation) Tuesday that there’s no need right now for restrictions on companies making key components of their powerful AI systems widely available.\n> \n> “We recognize the importance of open systems,” said Alan Davidson, an assistant secretary of the U.S. Commerce Department, in an interview with The Associated Press.\n> \n> As part of a sweeping executive order on AI last year, President Joe Biden gave the U.S. Commerce Department until July to talk to experts and come back with recommendations on how to manage the potential benefits and risks of so-called open models.\n> \n> The term “open-source” comes from a decades-old practice of building software in which the code is free or widely accessible for anyone to examine, modify and build upon.\n> \n> However, [open-source AI development](https://apnews.com/article/ai-opensource-meta-ibm-chatgpt-dd61e99ac8135b36872b3987601067ec) involves more than just code and computer scientists differ on how to define it depending on which components of the technology are publicly available, and if there are restrictions limiting its use.<br/>\n> [—O’Brien, 2024](https://apnews.com/article/ai-open-source-white-house-f62009172c46c5003ddd9481aa49f7c3)" }, { "id": 27029, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?", "short_title": "Will there be a VP debate in 2024?", "url_title": "Will there be a VP debate in 2024?", "slug": "will-there-be-a-vp-debate-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 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"forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27029, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before Election Day (Nov. 5) 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-06T23:35:19.502010Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-12T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-12T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-12T00:20:24.561366Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T02:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-02T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Previous vice presidential debates have been: \n\n- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence\n- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine\n- October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan\n- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin\n- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards\n- October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.\n\nVice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.\n\nThe Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before November 5, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.\n\nIf no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "- A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.\n\n- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.\n\n- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.\nPre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\n- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.\n\n- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.\n\n- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as \"No\".\n\n- The debate must begin before November 5, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.", "post_id": 27029, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728648474.007234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728648474.007234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9869105045912142 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010561813766971701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.01542797475028349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055101661612877495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07446987051963155, 0.025137985516365664, 0.1878741162901934, 0.0, 0.11034223931239878, 0.9964198728067304, 0.0, 0.9053010992041268, 0.19892345174351658, 9.915636321258127 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 58.647207349346345, "peer_score": 3.49730106647936, "coverage": 0.6196317132590841, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998708291224979, "spot_peer_score": 8.394622771953866, "baseline_archived_score": 58.647207349346345, "peer_archived_score": 3.49730106647936, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.394622771953866 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288008.833864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288008.833864, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.012361621865409567, 0.9876383781345904 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 132, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Previous vice presidential debates have been: \n\n- October 7, 2020 between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence\n- October 4, 2016, between Mike Pence and Tim Kaine\n- October 11, 2012, between Joe Biden and Paul Ryan\n- October 2, 2008 between Joe Biden and Sarah Palin\n- October 5, 2004 between Dick Cheney and John Edwards\n- October 5, 2000 between Dick Cheney and Joe Lieberman.\n\nVice presidential debates were not held before 1984, when the first ever VP debate, between George H.W. Bush and Geraldine Ferraro, was held on October 11.\n\nThe Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate." }, { "id": 27024, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Hasina asylum in the UK before Oct 2024?", "url_title": "Hasina asylum in the UK before Oct 2024?", "slug": "hasina-asylum-in-the-uk-before-oct-2024", "author_id": 137079, "author_username": "Heramb_42", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T18:20:38.392505Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.096737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 27024, "title": "Will Sheikh Hasina get asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T18:20:38.392505Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T22:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:29:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-15T06:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Sheikh Hasina has been granted asylum in the United Kingdom before October 1, 2024. Sources for verification can include:\n\n- Official statements from the UK Home Office or government.\n\n- Direct statements from Sheikh Hasina or her legal representatives.\n\n- Other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).\n\nIf this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nWe are defining \"asylum\" as Hasina entering the UK under the auspices of [Section 31](https://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/1999/33/section/31) of the UK's Immigration and Asylum Act of 1999, seeking asylum as a refugee. It does not include any [other form of entry](https://www.gov.uk/browse/visas-immigration) into the UK such as temporary diplomatic protections, entering the country under a Standard Visa, family visa, etc. If she enters and remains in the UK through October 1, 2024 using some other method rather than formal asylum, this question resolves as No.\n\nPlease note that this question will not resolve as No until October 1, 2024. If an asylum request is denied, a successful appeal can still cause this question to resolve as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726312071.540734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726312071.540734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.057 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.05528448688081208 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9716275482544399, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 1.8322516804729716, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.432364601334016, "coverage": 0.9995820624613788, "baseline_score": 85.16563063494684, "spot_peer_score": 28.836841435776687, "peer_archived_score": 6.432364601334016, "baseline_archived_score": 85.16563063494684, "spot_peer_archived_score": 28.836841435776687 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726312071.583732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726312071.583732, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9929531267572115, 0.0070468732427885535 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the Indian news website [FirstPost](https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/bangladesh-sheikh-hasina-india-uk-asylum-london-13801246.html):\n\n>Sheikh Hasina has arrived in India after being forced to resign as Bangladesh’s prime minister on Monday (August 5). She and her sister, Sheikh Rehana, landed at Ghaziabad’s Hindon Airport in a C-130 transport aircraft in the evening.\n\n>Hasina will reportedly be travelling to the United Kingdom, where she has sought political asylum. She could spend the night in Delhi before her journey to London.\n \nHasina had faced increasing political pressure and protests in her country. Accusations of authoritarianism and electoral malpractice marred her tenure, leading to significant unrest. \n\nAccording to the [Asylum statistics](https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn01403/) database maintained by the UK Parliament: \n\n>- Not all asylum applications are successful. In 2023, 33% were refused at initial decision (not counting withdrawals). The annual refusal rate was highest in 2004 (88%) and lowest in recent times in 2022 (24%).\n\n>- When an application is refused at initial decision, it may be appealed. Between 2004 to 2021, around three-quarters of applicants refused asylum at initial decision lodged an appeal and almost one third of those appeals were allowed." }, { "id": 27022, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astronauts-suni-williams-and-butch-wilmore-be-on-earth-on-september-15-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:30.205017Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.337710Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27022, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:30.205017Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T00:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on September 15?\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface as of 12 noon on September 15, 2024 Eastern time, based on credible sources such as reporting from NASA, SpaceX, Boeing, or Roscosmos.", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.\n\nThe question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. 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It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 27021, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040697.500349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.665 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040697.500349, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.665 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5672303404812084 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1136385207363744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.46637227289740374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.3037969247074038, 0.47494197203925326, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7444205289130077, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8619730453690168, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.7669529467029269, 0.31286391742790765, 0.4279958347304662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040697.52731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040697.52731, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44401467648473614, 0.5559853235152639 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. 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(In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports)." }, { "id": 27020, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-anthropic-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.833009Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.491502Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27020, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Anthropic announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.833009Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T17:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Anthropic, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://www.anthropic.com/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Anthropic's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://www.anthropic.com/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nAnthropic's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 27020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040183.622183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040183.622183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.28115782311020554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.11160910633783082, 0.21572547604369705, 0.38043555332875517, 0.29235407747798414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8437799594664448, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9285234174050512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.6308407491715394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2928356249839038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.763185273980395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5095306989691931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040183.658591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040183.658591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8678721956293632, 0.13212780437063676 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding round, Anthropic was valued at $18 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. " }, { "id": 27019, "title": "Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-a-debate-between-kamala-harris-and-donald-trump-on-september-4-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.723429Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.110425Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27019, "title": "Will there be a debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on September 4, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.723429Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-05T11:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On August 2, 2024, Donald Trump posted on social media that he was terminating his agreement to appear at a September 10, 2024 debate hosted by ABC News, which had previously been agreed to between his campaign and Joe Biden. He claimed instead that he was going to debate Kamala Harris on September 4, 2024, in a debate hosted by Fox News. In response, Harris campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said that there had been no such agreement to move the debate and that Harris would attend the September 10th debate whether Trump was in attendance or not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on September 4, 2024, there is a one formal, live debate held between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.", "fine_print": "A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to each other in real time. Responses to pre-recorded video or statements would not count.\n\nA debate need not complete its scheduled duration. It is sufficient if the debate starts with both candidates participating live.\n\nA debate can be conducted either in person or virtually.\n\nAlternative events in place of a debate, such as dueling town hall interviews, will not count.\n\nA formal debate means it must be a structured and moderated event specifically billed as a presidential debate.", "post_id": 27019, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040213.682737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040213.682737, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.325 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23177706675929213 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 1.0159967232694815, 0.27308960725456716, 0.09630553750946041, 0.6840563286527162, 0.0, 1.068585672215755, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 1.3723910888530075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3550696650578925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040213.714629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040213.714629, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8891242547424953, 0.11087574525750471 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On August 2, 2024, Donald Trump posted on social media that he was terminating his agreement to appear at a September 10, 2024 debate hosted by ABC News, which had previously been agreed to between his campaign and Joe Biden. He claimed instead that he was going to debate Kamala Harris on September 4, 2024, in a debate hosted by Fox News. In response, Harris campaign spokesman Michael Tyler said that there had been no such agreement to move the debate and that Harris would attend the September 10th debate whether Trump was in attendance or not." }, { "id": 27018, "title": "Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-publicly-available-llm-achieve-gold-on-the-international-math-olympiad-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.610090Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.397163Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27018, "title": "Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on the International Math Olympiad before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.610090Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Closed-source, domain-specific AI in 2024 came one point off gold on the 2024 [IMO](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/). However, this used a bespoke, proof-only neural network. Whereas, in this question, we consider ChatGPT-like systems: publicly-available, domain-general language models. **This question is intended to reflect the widespread availability of mathematical expertise in a form usable by a lay-person.**\n\n\"The International Math Olympiad is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extraordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions... In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\" Background information from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if it is publicly announced that a general large language model (LLM) system available to the public scores gold in the International Math Olympiad (IMO) before October 1, 2024.\n\n**Criteria distinguishing this question from the [IMO grand challenge](https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/)**: \n\n*Model Generality*: The model must be domain-general i.e. capable of answering standard queries one might have posed to ChatGPT in 2023 (e.g. as listed [here](https://huggingface.co/datasets/lmsys/chatbot_arena_conversations)). Multi-modal systems are considered valid LLMs for this challenge. \n\n*Model Availability*: A large language model (LLM) is publicly available, meaning it is either:\n\n- Queryable by the general public via web browser, or\n- Accessible via an Application Programming Interface ([API](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/API)).\n\nThe model need not be [open-weights](https://www.ftc.gov/policy/advocacy-research/tech-at-ftc/2024/07/open-weights-foundation-models).\n\n**Additional criteria**:\n\n*Test Set*: The model achieves the gold medal threshold in an IMO. The gold medal threshold is a point cutoff determined for that year's olympiad usually including around the top 50 competitors, and is shown on the official IMO [page](https://www.imo-official.org/year_individual_r.aspx?year=2024). Model success must be announced by credible sources, which may include AI lab blog posts, arXiv preprints, or published papers.\n\n*Input/Output Format*: Problems must be presented to the model as they would be to IMO participants, using:\n\n1. Natural language\n2. Images (if applicable to the problem)\n3. The model may submit proofs in either a formal language or as human competitors would.\n\n*Model Constraints for IMO*:\n\n1. The model must not use internet search during problem-solving\n2. The model may use arbitrary scaffolding, search within a fixed knowledge base, and program use.", "fine_print": "*Time Limit*: The model must finalize its answers to all 6 IMO problems within a total of 9 hours, submitting one answer for each question. This can be either:\n\n- 9 hours of wall-clock time if only serial queries to the model are made, or\n- 9 hours of effective serial run-time if parallel processing is used", "post_id": 27018, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126563.994728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126563.994728, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.11221881134901014 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.4962051594378815, 0.5188552834493008, 0.0, 1.8768895639481564, 1.4372436679175693, 0.0, 0.5029882706621958, 0.1148171974242466, 1.6581644296644091, 0.0, 1.3445918901109066, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4117310177382798, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2645874788223365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37974261668515136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04223888642530301, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126564.03188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126564.03188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9748810791813234, 0.025118920818676668 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Closed-source, domain-specific AI in 2024 came one point off gold on the 2024 [IMO](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/ai-solves-imo-problems-at-silver-medal-level/). However, this used a bespoke, proof-only neural network. Whereas, in this question, we consider ChatGPT-like systems: publicly-available, domain-general language models. **This question is intended to reflect the widespread availability of mathematical expertise in a form usable by a lay-person.**\n\n\"The International Math Olympiad is a mathematics competition for kids 18-and-under featuring extraordinarily difficult and novel mathematics problems. Contestants complete a total of 6 problems over 2 days, with 4.5 hours each day to submit their solutions... In the 2020 Olympiad, out of 616 contestants representing 105 countries, 49 gold medals were awarded and only one competitor won a perfect score of 42.\" Background information from [Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6728/ai-wins-imo-gold-medal/)." }, { "id": 27017, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-nations-have-more-than-193-member-states-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.458372Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.102677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27017, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.458372Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states exceeds 193 at any point between the question's opening date and 23:59:59 UTC on September 30, 2024 (inclusive). It will resolve negatively if the number of member states remains at or below 193 throughout this period.\n\nResolution will be based on the official membership count as reported on the United Nations website ([Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states)) in official UN press releases, or from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the UN's official numbers.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"member states\" refers to full member states of the United Nations, not observer states or any other category of affiliation.\n\nIf a new member state is admitted that would bring the number above 193 but its membership does not take effect until after the resolution date, the question will still resolve negatively.\n\nIf the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 27017, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126541.799368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126541.799368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06704041980080346 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.816367937417432, 0.9012033191072741, 0.5625398028433876, 0.0773927070098371, 4.021666431942586, 1.6225062254729186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.039056665564714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6076791370904222, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126541.844895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126541.844895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9938053231254635, 0.006194676874536413 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members" } ] }
