Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2700
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2680", "results": [ { "id": 22391, "title": "Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Security Council Gaza Resolution May 2024?", "url_title": "Security Council Gaza Resolution May 2024?", "slug": "security-council-gaza-resolution-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-13T02:09:27.244100Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.278440Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 387, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22391, "title": "Will the United Nations Security Council pass a resolution related to the Gaza War between April 23 and May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T02:09:27.244100Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-21T14:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [United Nations (UN) Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) is a UN body responsible for matters of [international peace and security](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/). The [council's membership](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members) consists of five permanent members made up of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as 10 non-permanent members. [Three-fifths of the members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council#Veto_power) must vote in favor for a resolution for it to pass, though the five permanent members have veto power, and any one permanent member can veto a resolution.\n\nIn early March 2024 the United States used its veto power to [block a resolution calling for a ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) in the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war). The US had also blocked previous resolutions calling for a ceasefire, including [one in December 2023](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-un-resolution-ceasefire-humanitarian-6d3bfd31d6c25168e828274d96b85cf8). However, on March 25 the US abstained on a ceasefire resolution, [allowing it to pass](https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15641.doc.htm). This change was [characterized by some media sources](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/25/1240669997/united-nations-security-council-cease-fire-resolution-gaza-israel-war) as stemming from US frustrations with Israel's strategy and the [risk it poses to civilians](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna144870/rcrd37624?canonicalCard=true).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, between April 23 and May 20, 2024 (inclusive), the United Nations Security Council passes a resolution related to the Israel-Gaza conflict.\n\nThe UN Security Council [website](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/resolutions-adopted-security-council-2024), as well as other credible sources, will be considered for the resolution of this question.", "fine_print": "In the event of a dispute as to whether a passed resolution is \"related to the Israel-Gaza conflict,\" such a dispute shall resolve at the discretion of Metaculus admins.", "post_id": 22391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153974.246857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153974.246857, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019585463791845666 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.970484339829774, 16.191429473401712, 2.1712067488867235, 1.1333571333869434, 0.6901437206846075, 0.15746472294415803, 0.09717767228343471, 0.9272707854066617, 0.0075871375864723575, 2.3429221153634647e-06, 0.020091637665848774, 0.002672907392276578, 0.0003465041847570314, 0.054516004565774094, 1.6501462657761562e-05, 0.030431025312320597, 0.003830974896334983, 3.849135672840039e-07, 5.68188304717432e-07, 0.0019193946878468553, 0.002546617640096248, 3.860083857556809e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 3.462657350905602e-06, 0.0024908218842170145, 0.0025547599647699724, 0.00030460988363456153, 0.001276372094931676, 0.0, 0.010176254049799889, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006467908564427192, 0.002096489346622371, 0.002033491341100943, 0.00595471315484911, 0.004536044777078765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001654358850762581, 0.002979770149872056, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.954069565066377e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1539547836719714e-06, 0.00021446941598466442, 0.00031802977920056394, 4.7559357626894226e-06, 0.0, 9.138230673838725e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3057265971301477e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001291986832928291, 0.0008566312588458583, 0.00020510763139589138, 0.0, 0.0, 4.444485940771898e-06, 0.00026739263661400194, 4.645827973645983e-05, 0.0007908901404446731, 0.0011025227811448021, 0.002291913131167132, 2.5231925085215844e-06, 2.676294392997983e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002094689246057029, 8.887895766728961e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000666507739922721, 0.0010673263635943664, 3.8372638118504966e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000989796896907242, 5.6979406989443894e-05, 0.0003230508850608541, 0.0, 0.0, 6.613821840509488e-06, 0.0007015990458750426, 9.074358902989603e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 5.435923483620645e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33713222517056807 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.88455110135123, "coverage": 0.9998916442744703, "baseline_score": 69.91972908347753, "spot_peer_score": 38.35107268753709, "peer_archived_score": 34.88455110135123, "baseline_archived_score": 69.91972908347753, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.35107268753709 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716153974.319022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716153974.319022, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 387, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9991556797445492, 0.0008443202554507707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1182, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [United Nations (UN) Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council) is a UN body responsible for matters of [international peace and security](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/). The [council's membership](https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/current-members) consists of five permanent members made up of China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, as well as 10 non-permanent members. [Three-fifths of the members](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Nations_Security_Council#Veto_power) must vote in favor for a resolution for it to pass, though the five permanent members have veto power, and any one permanent member can veto a resolution.\n\nIn early March 2024 the United States used its veto power to [block a resolution calling for a ceasefire](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) in the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war). The US had also blocked previous resolutions calling for a ceasefire, including [one in December 2023](https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-un-resolution-ceasefire-humanitarian-6d3bfd31d6c25168e828274d96b85cf8). However, on March 25 the US abstained on a ceasefire resolution, [allowing it to pass](https://press.un.org/en/2024/sc15641.doc.htm). This change was [characterized by some media sources](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/25/1240669997/united-nations-security-council-cease-fire-resolution-gaza-israel-war) as stemming from US frustrations with Israel's strategy and the [risk it poses to civilians](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live-blog/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-rcna144870/rcrd37624?canonicalCard=true)." }, { "id": 22390, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump SCOTUS Petition in April-May 2024?", "url_title": "Trump SCOTUS Petition in April-May 2024?", "slug": "trump-scotus-petition-in-april-may-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-13T01:27:16.402376Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.355862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 348, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22390, "title": "Will Donald Trump file a new writ petition or application for stay with the US Supreme Court between April 16 and May 19, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T01:27:16.402376Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-19T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including inquiries into his business dealings, the handling of classified information, and allegations of electoral interference.\n\nThis question pertains to two of the most common filings in supreme court cases:\n\n**Writ Petition:**\n\nA writ petition is a formal request to a higher court to review a lower court's decision. One common type of writ is a writ of certiorari, which the Supreme Court uses to decide most of the cases it hears. The petitioner asks the Supreme Court to consider the legal or constitutional issues raised by the case's facts. The issuance of a writ indicates the higher court's agreement to hear the case, although it does not predetermine the case's outcome.\n\n**Application for Stay:**\n\nAn application for stay is a request to temporarily halt the enforcement of a lower court's decision while the appeal process is ongoing. It is essentially a request for the preservation of the status quo to prevent irreparable harm that could result from implementing the lower court's decision if it were eventually overturned on appeal. In the context of the Supreme Court, a party might file an application for stay pending the Court's decision on whether to take up the case (grant certiorari) or while an appeal is being considered.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Donald Trump has, between April 16 and May 19, 2024 (inclusive), filed as (i) \"applicant\" on an application for a stay and/or as (ii) \"petitioner\" on petition for a writ of certiorari to the United States Supreme Court.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154203.654277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154203.654277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.004 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.996, 0.004 ], "means": [ 0.006619190695494708 ], "histogram": [ [ 22.329948352730895, 11.946352854787715, 0.7765056707567817, 0.5701045331033215, 0.015373289117554386, 0.052136263807544214, 0.0027297900640779115, 0.0018632346746041257, 0.019880159429642334, 5.1198838138408164e-05, 0.013331512016627686, 0.0056819448858857835, 0.002187941743933083, 0.004997795588934678, 6.777121789043532e-05, 0.001014704428733202, 0.003440143661516931, 0.0, 3.2052536259731625e-05, 0.0, 0.0059022069417127366, 0.002148118096006363, 0.0, 0.005312771009813975, 0.00019460304567312412, 0.000498241729889014, 0.0, 0.0024973455754519485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012204445502910855, 0.0008654540493190438, 0.0020780046906738636, 8.769208686045956e-06, 0.0, 0.001892164492557012, 0.0, 8.895507836838609e-05, 0.0, 8.445801661430173e-05, 5.506769931265274e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003537516441477871, 0.0, 0.011099580604502203, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7261910205341757e-06, 9.995958690183805e-06, 0.012453827507898725, 1.428899938557998e-06, 0.0013993994025534723, 0.0, 0.0006483696302452195, 1.8693956652080071e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.612200458610468e-05, 0.0006776081312822241, 0.0, 0.0003273069005432758, 0.0, 6.342594438215762e-05, 0.0001834254154689508, 7.01192794965257e-05, 0.0003162275267400642, 0.0011518653980479212, 0.0016605498127839117, 0.0006192924486497196, 4.527850569524471e-06, 1.3156960561933248e-05, 0.0002849196569540623, 0.0, 0.00025302712560335645, 0.0011417884578372982, 0.0008069930422272992, 3.1923344503797098e-06, 1.061551945977105e-06, 0.0005001322540442263, 0.0006102488947790416, 0.001000337354166358, 0.0, 0.0, 6.627167829715093e-05, 0.00018297322000463743, 0.002277204972021649, 0.0, 1.4070314527225243e-05, 0.0, 0.0013444707915270945, 0.0, 3.017348935777246e-05, 0.0, 0.0009521908728801036, 0.00010433276267535323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025931835484185465 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 57.86845468199444, "coverage": 0.999885622619619, "baseline_score": 66.08350403036387, "spot_peer_score": 66.9553705313831, "peer_archived_score": 57.86845468199444, "baseline_archived_score": 66.08350403036387, "spot_peer_archived_score": 66.9553705313831 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716154203.758247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716154203.758247, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 348, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1045, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The unprecedented legal and constitutional questions raised in Donald Trump's various cases have resulted in frequent appeals to the US Supreme Court to challenge or seek relief from lower court decisions. These actions are part of the broader legal and political narrative surrounding Trump's legal disputes, including inquiries into his business dealings, the handling of classified information, and allegations of electoral interference.\n\nThis question pertains to two of the most common filings in supreme court cases:\n\n**Writ Petition:**\n\nA writ petition is a formal request to a higher court to review a lower court's decision. One common type of writ is a writ of certiorari, which the Supreme Court uses to decide most of the cases it hears. The petitioner asks the Supreme Court to consider the legal or constitutional issues raised by the case's facts. The issuance of a writ indicates the higher court's agreement to hear the case, although it does not predetermine the case's outcome.\n\n**Application for Stay:**\n\nAn application for stay is a request to temporarily halt the enforcement of a lower court's decision while the appeal process is ongoing. It is essentially a request for the preservation of the status quo to prevent irreparable harm that could result from implementing the lower court's decision if it were eventually overturned on appeal. In the context of the Supreme Court, a party might file an application for stay pending the Court's decision on whether to take up the case (grant certiorari) or while an appeal is being considered." }, { "id": 22389, "title": "Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?", "short_title": "AI Whistleblower Protection", "url_title": "AI Whistleblower Protection", "slug": "ai-whistleblower-protection", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-13T00:48:57.583246Z", "published_at": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.926780Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22389, "title": "Will the United States enact a law that protects whistleblowers from disclosing to the general public potential harm to the public caused by an AI system before 2028?", "created_at": "2024-04-13T00:48:57.583246Z", "open_time": "2024-05-11T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-16T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Whistleblower protection in the [Defend Trade Secrets Act](https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/whistleblowers-and-trade-secrets-does-the-dtsa-protect-confidential-data/):\n\n> (1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a Federal, State, or local government official, either directly or indirectly, or to an attorney; and (ii) solely for the purpose of reporting or investigating a suspected violation of law; or (B) is made in a complaint or other document filed in a lawsuit or other proceeding, if such filing is made under seal.\n\nAlso from page 139 of [Private Accountability in the Age of Artificial Intelligence](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3309397):\n\n> Finally, it bears mentioning that this solution is only a partial one—it does not go far enough. For example, immunity under the DTSA would be more effective if coupled with a similar whistleblowing exception to the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) (or even a limited exclusion for terms of service violations). It becomes clear, from the issues surrounding the CFAA, that a whistleblower exception might be further warranted in those circumstances, leading commentators to support the idea. In 2008, in the wake of the suicide of Aaron Swartz, U.S. Representative Zoe Lofgren proposed a bill, called “Aaron’s law” that would have excluded terms of service violations from the list of violations under the CFAA. It was never passed. And while the DTSA provides immunity for disclosures to attorneys or government officials, it does not immunize disclosures made to journalists, academics, watchdog groups, or the general public.\n\nAccording to the same source, other jurisdictions have taken further steps:\n\n> Indeed, although the DTSA provisions are extraordinarily promising, it is also important to note that other jurisdictions have taken even broader steps to protect whistleblowing. For example, an equivalent EU Directive included numerous exceptions for the public disclosure of trade secrets “‘for exercising the right to freedom of expression and information . . . , including respect for freedom and pluralism of the media,’ and for revealing a ‘misconduct, wrongdoing or illegal activity, provided that the respondent acted for the purpose of protecting the general public interest.’", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2028, the US enacts a law that would protect whistleblowers who disclose information to the general public, including trade secrets, for the purpose of reporting the potential for harm caused by an AI system that exists or is in development.\n\nProtection must be from criminal liability, civil liability, and retaliation.\n\nAn enacted law need not fulfill all of the criteria on its own, so long as the end result of the enactment is that the defined whistleblower protections exist. For example, a law might expand previous whistleblower protections to satisfy the remaining criteria.\n\nA law must protect disclosures to the general public made for the sole purpose of reporting a potential harm, and such a law may have requirements on how such a disclosure is made. However, if a law provides no mechanism for the information to reach the public then it will not be considered sufficient to satisfy these criteria.", "fine_print": "\"Disclose information to the general public\" means that in order to count, there must not be restrictions on who can be authorized to receive the disclosed information, such as the US Department of Justice's [whistleblower policy](https://oig.justice.gov/hotline/whistleblower-protection).", "post_id": 22389, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740392563.971762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740392563.971762, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.135 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.865, 0.135 ], "means": [ 0.1467044856030038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 1.1187067561520712, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288834.859895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288834.859895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9712787108535923, 0.028721289146407692 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Whistleblower protection in the [Defend Trade Secrets Act](https://ogletree.com/insights-resources/blog-posts/whistleblowers-and-trade-secrets-does-the-dtsa-protect-confidential-data/):\n\n> (1) An individual shall not be held criminally or civilly liable under any Federal or State trade secret law for the disclosure of a trade secret that: (A) is made— (i) in confidence to a Federal, State, or local government official, either directly or indirectly, or to an attorney; and (ii) solely for the purpose of reporting or investigating a suspected violation of law; or (B) is made in a complaint or other document filed in a lawsuit or other proceeding, if such filing is made under seal.\n\nAlso from page 139 of [Private Accountability in the Age of Artificial Intelligence](https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3309397):\n\n> Finally, it bears mentioning that this solution is only a partial one—it does not go far enough. For example, immunity under the DTSA would be more effective if coupled with a similar whistleblowing exception to the Computer Fraud and Abuse Act (CFAA) (or even a limited exclusion for terms of service violations). It becomes clear, from the issues surrounding the CFAA, that a whistleblower exception might be further warranted in those circumstances, leading commentators to support the idea. In 2008, in the wake of the suicide of Aaron Swartz, U.S. Representative Zoe Lofgren proposed a bill, called “Aaron’s law” that would have excluded terms of service violations from the list of violations under the CFAA. It was never passed. And while the DTSA provides immunity for disclosures to attorneys or government officials, it does not immunize disclosures made to journalists, academics, watchdog groups, or the general public.\n\nAccording to the same source, other jurisdictions have taken further steps:\n\n> Indeed, although the DTSA provisions are extraordinarily promising, it is also important to note that other jurisdictions have taken even broader steps to protect whistleblowing. For example, an equivalent EU Directive included numerous exceptions for the public disclosure of trade secrets “‘for exercising the right to freedom of expression and information . . . , including respect for freedom and pluralism of the media,’ and for revealing a ‘misconduct, wrongdoing or illegal activity, provided that the respondent acted for the purpose of protecting the general public interest.’" }, { "id": 22388, "title": "Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?", "short_title": "Universal Basic Income by 2030", "url_title": "Universal Basic Income by 2030", "slug": "universal-basic-income-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-12T22:04:16.458892Z", "published_at": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.292905Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22388, "title": "Will the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU enact a universal basic income before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T22:04:16.458892Z", "open_time": "2024-05-09T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-12T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-12T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> \n> —[The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, a universal basic income (UBI) is enacted in the entirety of any of the US, UK, China, or any of the countries in the EU.\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.", "fine_print": "The $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.\n\nPlease note that this question resolves upon enactment of a UBI. Therefore, any subsequent repeals or changes to the UBI before implementation are not relevant for purposes of this question.\n\nFor purposes of this question, \"enacted\" is defined as signed into law, regardless of when funds begin to be disbursed.", "post_id": 22388, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757280720.964683, "end_time": 1759840802.342995, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757280720.964683, "end_time": 1759840802.342995, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12186886470806148 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.1971904988860127, 1.1696190922848828, 0.5941456081254607, 2.187500508741084, 0.46957497544070115, 3.019556641907795, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35034195902508225, 0.0, 0.85010614184605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03282480256284937, 0.0, 0.21127762784985343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09329258471159352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23476588978119836 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289296.969244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289296.969244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9901093833686339, 0.009890616631366127 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> \n> —[The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)" }, { "id": 22385, "title": "Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?", "short_title": "Starship IFT4 Reaches 200 km Before May 20?", "url_title": "Starship IFT4 Reaches 200 km Before May 20?", "slug": "starship-ift4-reaches-200-km-before-may-20", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-12T19:52:34.541116Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.392797Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 394, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22385, "title": "Will SpaceX's fourth Starship integrated flight test reach an altitude of at least 200 kilometers before May 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T19:52:34.541116Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nFollowing a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review by the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA), the second integrated flight took place on [November 18, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_2). The third integrated flight test [took place on March 14, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 20, 2024, the fourth Starship integrated flight test occurs and Starship reaches an altitude of at least 200 kilometers (approximately 124 miles) intact.", "fine_print": "* An integrated flight test requires the Starship spacecraft to be stacked on top of the [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) with both launched together.\n* The question will resolve according to information published by SpaceX. In the event the altitude achieved is near 200 km but it is not clear whether 200 km was reached, Metaculus may wait for confirmation of the final altitude achieved from SpaceX or other credible sources to resolve the question. If on May 21 Metaculus determines that there is not sufficient evidence available to definitely say whether Starship reached an altitude of 200 km the question will be **annulled**. A statement from SpaceX saying that Starship reached an altitude of \"approximately 200 kilometers\" or \"~200 kilometers\" or similar will be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**, so long as the estimated altitude is 200 kilometers or more.", "post_id": 22385, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716212814.954968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716212814.954968, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.00747881984473454 ], "histogram": [ [ 28.63654196003344, 7.388327738184412, 0.9973221082383832, 0.40024663198813615, 0.5164770050016458, 0.011276797178216655, 0.004939278986635289, 0.0499299780079933, 0.0012830345264337915, 0.003564388253533441, 0.02169397343108252, 0.0008398494515997624, 0.002239044298949855, 0.006945768136708946, 0.007281046961833624, 0.002975582679162133, 0.0, 0.000564191759902333, 0.000479446796718508, 0.0002551659759430866, 0.00261399209900618, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.160410240185844e-05, 0.0, 0.0003029044596666671, 0.0003740307673925849, 0.02728765144704989, 0.0, 0.0013099405425580353, 0.0011891365859823728, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002051813061033094, 5.192540438233903e-06, 6.125030823236308e-05, 2.7752400430472832e-08, 0.0032906513615998615, 1.5633297709741787e-06, 0.0, 0.0001575963148480241, 7.753673904440987e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00018782393090586354, 0.0, 0.0006894418841001206, 0.0, 0.0019910657040005746, 0.0, 0.0, 5.660573220770399e-08, 2.6935803042401455e-05, 0.0004949509286836119, 0.0002327606672755871, 0.0004237894954544553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012115241377056877, 2.8414763064864265e-05, 0.0001718148088763109, 0.00027842804957275085, 7.487425820024562e-07, 3.450904182976967e-06, 0.0, 7.815304824007999e-05, 0.0, 6.754990968339072e-05, 0.0001401671957877704, 9.927013687870381e-05, 2.6276169077378094e-06, 0.0003839956429060508, 1.1521684273531805e-07, 0.00024931302766768686, 0.0001280272299665201, 0.0, 2.2902102225723565e-05, 0.0001309465770598038, 0.0023104139672349127, 1.667462645067997e-07, 0.0, 3.9175034675964634e-07, 0.0, 2.4963208549199487e-05, 9.45456286611273e-05, 7.142603292455436e-06, 0.00011402376948946786, 0.0, 9.134802184355098e-05, 0.0, 0.00014346302215829544, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9626218328574557e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10222879095232523 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 50.166786133867305, "coverage": 0.992413197564456, "baseline_score": 55.706861043019096, "spot_peer_score": 0.46667184605296175, "peer_archived_score": 50.166786133867305, "baseline_archived_score": 55.706861043019096, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.46667184605296175 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716212815.03386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716212815.03386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 394, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1393, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[SpaceX's first integrated flight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_Integrated_Flight_Test) took place on April 20, 2023, with the rocket reaching about 39 kilometers of altitude before breaking up. During the launch the launchpad [suffered significant damage](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/24/spacex-starship-explosion-spread-particulate-matter-for-miles.html) and the launch produced significant debris and particulate matter that led to concerns of the potential impact on the surrounding environment and community.\n\nFollowing a mishap investigation, a safety review, and an environmental review by the [Federal Aviation Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Aviation_Administration) (FAA), the second integrated flight took place on [November 18, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_2). The third integrated flight test [took place on March 14, 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20916/date-of-3rd-starship-integrated-flight-test/)." }, { "id": 22383, "title": "Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?", "short_title": "New Planet of the Apes Box Office Record?", "url_title": "New Planet of the Apes Box Office Record?", "slug": "new-planet-of-the-apes-box-office-record", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:46:47.886281Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.347643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 481, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22383, "title": "Will the Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes domestic opening box office set a new franchise record?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:46:47.886281Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-09T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-09T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-14T02:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-09T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The *[Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)* is an upcoming movie scheduled to be released on May 10, 2024. The movie will be the fourth installment of the [rebooted *Planet of the Apes* series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes#Reboot_film_series). The original source material was a 1963 French novel and a 1968 *Planet of the Apes* film. There has been nearly a seven year gap since the 2017 release of the third installment in the rebooted film series.\n\nThe most successful of the rebooted series in terms of the opening weekend domestic box office was the second in the series, *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*, exceeding the opening of [all other *Planet of the Apes* movies](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchise/fr2890370821/?sort=releaseDate&ref_=bo_fr__resort#table), including the original movie (though only without adjusting for inflation).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of the *Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes* movie sets a new franchise record, exceeding the [$72,611,427 opening of *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl1649182209/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs). Resolution will be determined according to the figure reported by [Box Office Mojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt11389872/?ref_=bo_se_r_1).", "fine_print": "* If the release of the movie is delayed from its scheduled May 10 date, or if Box Office Mojo does not publish the required data before May 21, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.\n* Note that box office figures are reported without adjustments for inflation.\n* The question will assess whether the box office opening exceeds $72,611,427, regardless of whether Box Office Mojo updates the figure for *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*.", "post_id": 22383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715290264.441374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715290264.441374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.08 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.10867715262417474 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.864363147965706, 10.47834484420516, 3.2966903870663975, 5.161125507275306, 1.621712389452018, 2.510109361874298, 1.8394690851670017, 1.5311233089644531, 0.7687436480201132, 0.4302677212949848, 1.4287349865368904, 0.29719668085754386, 0.05189632597103862, 0.10339627950646324, 0.03472741712968232, 0.464864099523209, 0.16054758854978932, 0.05729027246134969, 1.2790388903711165, 7.055668227264288e-09, 1.2569894467655351, 0.16322724286851437, 0.07291183673762054, 0.00234093622594115, 9.332763732920251e-08, 0.005760443119166632, 2.2696667900800006e-07, 0.02543585254920073, 0.0017585688900748327, 0.0, 0.016030510544276837, 0.0, 0.2293720130560999, 0.2740738951429103, 0.29540823782581566, 0.11642894621256673, 1.0217529947099288e-05, 0.44584664154404535, 0.004623246263240489, 0.0, 0.01895186234552884, 0.08295361615004301, 4.965837373645166e-07, 0.0, 3.772779056034063e-07, 2.6145826844636098e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.474852653782195e-07, 0.594508292702359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03674415221948174, 0.0, 6.225551167684917e-05, 0.0006508751733581878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22183817202239547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00911326476949372, 0.0, 0.002572353769997584, 0.00034655391392588873, 1.6881013655532171e-09, 7.322024871424524e-05, 0.0, 0.40343267143819544, 0.0, 0.029012272267359362, 7.820378127755066e-08, 0.0, 0.0010434810140085668, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07491222023447121, 0.04671436272481488, 0.009337519349733876, 0.0006423373177853492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00024112635675590366, 0.0, 0.00015992489787827396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009656773104947801, 1.5324946817202467 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 24.405169289738165, "coverage": 0.9999672271094767, "baseline_score": 86.62353445516585, "spot_peer_score": 27.14704884846941, "peer_archived_score": 24.405169289738165, "baseline_archived_score": 86.62353445516585, "spot_peer_archived_score": 27.14704884846941 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715290264.527164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715290264.527164, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 481, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9759922233410467, 0.02400777665895324 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 881, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The *[Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kingdom_of_the_Planet_of_the_Apes)* is an upcoming movie scheduled to be released on May 10, 2024. The movie will be the fourth installment of the [rebooted *Planet of the Apes* series](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_of_the_Apes#Reboot_film_series). The original source material was a 1963 French novel and a 1968 *Planet of the Apes* film. There has been nearly a seven year gap since the 2017 release of the third installment in the rebooted film series.\n\nThe most successful of the rebooted series in terms of the opening weekend domestic box office was the second in the series, *Dawn of the Planet of the Apes*, exceeding the opening of [all other *Planet of the Apes* movies](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchise/fr2890370821/?sort=releaseDate&ref_=bo_fr__resort#table), including the original movie (though only without adjusting for inflation)." }, { "id": 22382, "title": "Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?", "short_title": "Biden's 11th Veto Before May 17, 2024?", "url_title": "Biden's 11th Veto Before May 17, 2024?", "slug": "bidens-11th-veto-before-may-17-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:44:56.589259Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.401830Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 326, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22382, "title": "Will Joe Biden issue his 11th veto before May 17, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-12T18:44:56.589259Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-14T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-14T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-16T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-03T17:27:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 20, 2023, Joe Biden [issued his first veto](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/03/20/message-to-the-house-of-representatives-presidents-veto-of-h-j-res-30/), returning [House Joint Resolution 30](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/118/hjres30) (H. 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A statement to the effect that President Biden is withholding his approval (otherwise known as a [pocket veto](https://www.senate.gov/about/glossary.htm#pocket_veto)) will also be sufficient for the question to resolve.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22382, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714758980.973806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714758980.973806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 327, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.6644432549040198 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.298039286017843, 2.1455565192668065, 1.0959417538031275, 0.042860120134739825, 0.08588107743969875, 0.7076729652196669, 0.02634934851856122, 0.10644128054502056, 0.8739492448956199, 0.001429674545763199, 0.8832888991100788, 0.020244242075129856, 0.45620821591378363, 0.0, 0.04052943636604489, 1.015674442202085, 0.08520953244808692, 9.873039527738801e-06, 0.11336283731879575, 0.0, 0.5727374441109692, 0.035006783706008515, 0.24357529330465263, 0.006443157850316603, 0.48646823489992547, 0.3095212990332743, 0.049275040226191294, 0.0, 0.0008506126370840227, 0.0, 0.23548887961987958, 0.0, 0.020848549187884934, 0.019854064045998147, 0.0, 0.000930536249789381, 0.055885117620730125, 0.0, 0.00020520967977248999, 0.0, 0.6984164982960857, 0.0008780734578621109, 0.013666594974241454, 0.029513085389383766, 0.5085223383859327, 0.17499397499519842, 0.0, 0.00027918207695790034, 0.0005274336053492655, 0.0, 0.0719547437966505, 5.654033803488516e-06, 0.002981677319523538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023160193839092895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9384181381903792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038751254834185197, 0.014324014889420165, 0.04375839674069937, 0.0, 0.0012540373292986313, 0.004988830788984956, 1.2362889723021767e-05, 0.4011456839696082, 0.0024857395473947635, 0.002651019051709793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03064558433851513, 0.0529689055185388, 1.7750940364745262e-06, 0.024993297963401398, 0.0, 1.8990500531493986, 0.0, 0.06490899304274794, 0.0, 0.02466817356806979, 0.2602721658668773, 0.0, 0.33854472568820315, 0.0, 0.29045681936849205, 3.865401008742294, 0.0, 7.19788973184514e-05, 0.00018478670582514525, 0.7844053924177257, 1.597597036335544, 0.8004587961330737, 1.0303393975696977, 1.2650371543867314, 9.365028989820285 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.538908296724404, "coverage": 0.5642592717656371, "baseline_score": 0.5595528116621098, "spot_peer_score": 116.84290640011004, "peer_archived_score": 22.538908296724404, "baseline_archived_score": 0.5595528116621098, "spot_peer_archived_score": 116.84290640011004 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714744103.785578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714744103.785578, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.34198003624749074, 0.6580199637525093 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 724, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 20, 2023, Joe Biden [issued his first veto](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/03/20/message-to-the-house-of-representatives-presidents-veto-of-h-j-res-30/), returning [House Joint Resolution 30](https://www.govtrack.us/congress/bills/118/hjres30) (H. 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Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on December 31, 2030, Python occupies first place of the [TIOBE Index rankings](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/). If Python is not in first place on that date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If, before the resolution date, the TIOBE Index ceases to be published, has its rankings discontinued, or changes its methodology so substantially that Metaculus Admins deem it inappropriate to continue as a resolution source for this question, then this question will be Annulled.\n\nIn the event the TIOBE Index webpage is temporarily unavailable on December 31, 2030 and is unavailable the entire day, the question will be resolved using Python's last available ranking prior to that date.", "post_id": 22377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758099039.909967, "end_time": 1759089078.264703, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.611 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758099039.909967, "end_time": 1759089078.264703, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.611 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.689075504060916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5186900880963452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31022704382386135, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.7901520472113504, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.373816062693584, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 2.8106255410654484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43799658637130584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289225.886788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289225.886788, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3869296565045214, 0.6130703434954786 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are plenty of programming languages (PLs) being used across various fields of business, science, and more. Some are considered suitable for specific tasks, while others have broader applications. For those studying or seeking programming-related employment it is essential to understand which PLs are currently relevant to increase their chances of finding a job.\n\nThe question itself is tricky. How can we measure the popularity of a PL? One way is to measure the percentage of PLs used in [GitHub projects](https://octoverse.github.com/2022/top-programming-languages). However, not every company uses GitHub repositories; there are alternatives such as GitLab, GitFlic, etc. Additionally, some companies use their local servers to store their projects, making it challenging to gather such information.\n\nAnother method of measuring PLs' popularity is by calculating ratings based on the hits from popular search engines, similar to what the [TIOBE index](https://www.tiobe.com/tiobe-index/programminglanguages_definition/) does. This approach is more suitable and can provide us with more representative and extensive data because most languages are continually evolving. Even experienced programmers need to stay updated with newly introduced changes.\n\nAs of March 5, 2024, Python is considered the most popular language according to the TIOBE Index. Python is a high-level, general-purpose programming language. Its design philosophy emphasizes code readability through significant indentation. Python is dynamically typed and garbage-collected. It supports multiple programming paradigms, including structured (particularly procedural), object-oriented, and functional programming. Python is widely used in data science, machine learning, web development, etc.\n\nWhile popularity alone is not the sole factor for those choosing their future study area, understanding trends can be helpful. Many \"younger\" languages like Rust, Go, Swift, and others are gaining popularity and may potentially dominate in the near future." }, { "id": 22310, "title": "Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?", "short_title": "Will Lula be reelected in 2026?", "url_title": "Will Lula be reelected in 2026?", "slug": "will-lula-be-reelected-in-2026", "author_id": 134204, "author_username": "viniciusmjusto", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T23:19:03.831566Z", "published_at": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T04:20:46.502420Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-29T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 97, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22310, "title": "Will President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva be reelected as Brazil's president in October of 2026?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T23:19:03.831566Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-16T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-16T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-10-29T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-10-03T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lula has been elected thrice for the presidency in Brazil, in 2002, 2006, and 2022. All three times he led the first round with over 40% of votes, winning then in the second round with 60% of votes the first two times, and with 51% in 2022. Current election law requires a candidate to get more than 50% of valid votes in either the first round or the runoff to be elected.\n\nLula's party (PT - Workers' Party) has won every presidential election held this century with the exception of 2018, when Lula was imprisoned for corruption charges and was unable to run. His protege and current Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, lost to Jair Bolsonaro, who then went on to lose to Lula in 2022, becoming the first incumbent president to lose reelection in Brazil (out of four presidents who attempted and five who were eligible). Bolsonaro himself is currently unable to run until 2030 due to election interference charges.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves YES if Lula is declared the winner of Brazil's Presidential Election of 2026 by the Superior Electoral Court.", "fine_print": "If the voting method or electoral authority changes, that does not affect this question. Closing and resolution dates might be extended if the election is postponed by a short, definite period, like the 2020 municipal elections were due to COVID.\n\nIf, by Republic Day on November 15, 2026, the election has not happened and is not clearly scheduled to happen, this question will be *Annulled*.\n\nEven though the question title says \"re-elected\", this question will not be affected if Lula ceases to be President before the 2026 election and then goes on to win it.", "post_id": 22310, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758169235.891475, "end_time": 1758954638.262671, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758169235.891475, "end_time": 1758954638.262671, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5051175890869847 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.42269683455113727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.7949347303552422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.221979450989468, 1.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4203848492435676 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289848.591845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289848.591845, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6557112039145853, 0.34428879608541474 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 194, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lula has been elected thrice for the presidency in Brazil, in 2002, 2006, and 2022. All three times he led the first round with over 40% of votes, winning then in the second round with 60% of votes the first two times, and with 51% in 2022. Current election law requires a candidate to get more than 50% of valid votes in either the first round or the runoff to be elected.\n\nLula's party (PT - Workers' Party) has won every presidential election held this century with the exception of 2018, when Lula was imprisoned for corruption charges and was unable to run. His protege and current Finance Minister, Fernando Haddad, lost to Jair Bolsonaro, who then went on to lose to Lula in 2022, becoming the first incumbent president to lose reelection in Brazil (out of four presidents who attempted and five who were eligible). Bolsonaro himself is currently unable to run until 2030 due to election interference charges." }, { "id": 22308, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Before May 16, 2024?", "url_title": "Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Before May 16, 2024?", "slug": "israel-hamas-ceasefire-before-may-16-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:26:16.643211Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.319317Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 689, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22308, "title": "Will Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire deal before May 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:26:16.643211Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-16T15:25:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the beginning of the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#), [one temporary ceasefire has been reached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire). The ceasefire began on November 24, 2023, and was scheduled to last for four days, but was extended for two days and again for an additional day. During the ceasefire a number of Israeli hostages held by Hamas were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.\n\nIn 2024 the two sides have held negotiations for another ceasefire, but have [so far been unable to reach an agreement](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-hamas-rejects-latest-cease-fire-proposal-israel-108495723).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 16, 2024, it is officially reported that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement for a ceasefire.", "fine_print": "* Temporary ceasefires count, as do humanitarian pauses, so long as they extend to the entire conflict. For example, a humanitarian pause in certain regions or corridors would not be sufficient.\n* The ceasefire does not actually need to begin, so long as there are credible reports that a ceasefire agreement has been reached between Israel and Hamas.\n* For the purposes of this question, official reporting will be public confirmation by both Israel and Hamas. Anonymous or unsourced reports will not be sufficient. Reports of an informal or \"[tentative agreement](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-israel-hamas-reach-tentative-deal-pause-conflict-free-dozens-hostages-wapo-2023-11-19/)\" will not be sufficient, the agreement must be confirmed.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt, using reports published before May 16, 2024. If the available reporting published before May 16 remains of dubious credibility, is conflicting, or is unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 22308, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809994.975925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809994.975925, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.016988289922325372 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.473541447042102, 25.922442725620673, 2.216607817514232, 1.2991035490132632, 0.020887250311855645, 0.7341785383595789, 0.16179236524843565, 0.00700549845628325, 0.16271652873992634, 0.015002293995188593, 0.13671906987305776, 0.03189540030054366, 0.037723045376198173, 0.04156886667181896, 0.054340436815436474, 0.04636712090445535, 0.040544031548198, 0.0, 0.0021416299680724186, 3.777995385245653e-07, 0.08267446640208449, 0.0, 0.035089530333992924, 3.222281627959876e-05, 0.0001233472287715532, 0.01057509097727683, 3.5894904695979144e-06, 6.976185183901642e-05, 0.00022133388831908893, 0.0, 0.12916996790687615, 0.0, 1.180974242349673e-07, 1.24485491211389e-09, 2.7281728883469868e-08, 3.569447016570619e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011024964776076313, 1.3443486918269073e-08, 1.6692145464117736e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.614642049518639e-11, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018277575780501428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.8076897372631275e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7805321999549247e-07, 0.002082992750703228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002151197556141699, 0.02141951204847392, 0.00024060917299674247, 5.128542531526514e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0828825637923795e-11, 5.792352254342471e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3571789378450343e-09, 0.011226176768025002, 0.0, 1.6071402222952447e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 3.653408650380139e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0041355396922513185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003003829643418465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2784621867518717 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.05690629524718, "coverage": 0.9999976085672562, "baseline_score": 93.22750724538336, "spot_peer_score": 12.621834299540247, "peer_archived_score": 15.05690629524718, "baseline_archived_score": 93.22750724538336, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.621834299540247 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809995.169163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809995.169163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 689, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2260, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the beginning of the [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war#), [one temporary ceasefire has been reached](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_ceasefire). The ceasefire began on November 24, 2023, and was scheduled to last for four days, but was extended for two days and again for an additional day. During the ceasefire a number of Israeli hostages held by Hamas were exchanged for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.\n\nIn 2024 the two sides have held negotiations for another ceasefire, but have [so far been unable to reach an agreement](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/latest-hamas-rejects-latest-cease-fire-proposal-israel-108495723)." }, { "id": 22305, "title": "Will OpenAI release a new ChatGPT generation before May 16, 2024?", "short_title": "New ChatGPT Generation Before May 16, 2024?", "url_title": "New ChatGPT Generation Before May 16, 2024?", "slug": "new-chatgpt-generation-before-may-16-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:11:24.251145Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.871957Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 670, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22305, "title": "Will OpenAI release a new ChatGPT generation before May 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T21:11:24.251145Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T21:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT), the large language model chatbot released by OpenAI, first launched to the public in November of 2022 using GPT-3.5. Since then the [GPT-4 model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4), launched in March of 2023, has been added as one of the available models for subscribers. In March of 2024 [rumors circulated](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/chatgpt-could-get-a-gpt-5-upgrade-as-soon-as-this-summer-heres-what-we-know-so-far) that the launch of the next GPT generation for ChatGPT, whether GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, could happen soon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before May 16, 2024, OpenAI releases a new ChatGPT generation, such as ChatGPT 4.5 or ChatGPT 5.", "fine_print": "* To count as a new generation the model must not include the \"GPT 4\" designation or otherwise be a GPT 4 variant. For example \"GPT 4 Turbo\" is a variant of GPT 4. A new model dubbed GPT 4.5 or GPT 5 would count. The model choices available at chat.openai.com will be the primary determinant of whether a model is a new generation (currently subscribers can select from GPT-3.5 or GPT-4).\n* To count as released the model must be available at the web interface for the public to use, even if just limited to subscribers or a subset of subscribers. A closed beta would count, so long as OpenAI publicly announces a closed beta or similar and the closed beta is open to some members of the public who are not employed by OpenAI or contracted by OpenAI.", "post_id": 22305, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715634644.964041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715634644.964041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0978924464396177 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.729374960983277, 23.33297113071881, 2.9582413819085094, 1.4769275806067266, 0.2521270680511112, 1.9579260118291666, 0.6448128954040734, 0.008985454293109938, 0.27721941105613024, 0.08878436585454513, 0.46995683167337554, 0.001915224752676442, 0.04924962476306434, 0.9138963125335084, 9.195064928164663e-05, 0.41503310577288743, 0.0, 0.0002809165739677984, 0.0006791132937233784, 0.000769738858766458, 0.7721524826748637, 1.4142116086235267e-08, 4.639195531930322e-05, 0.001475596974425139, 2.72971906099626e-05, 0.525198854853783, 0.00038718736540249314, 0.0, 0.8795216261353486, 0.0, 0.0035492158713289327, 0.0019753431025737117, 0.0, 0.0010180921196937106, 0.0, 0.04549102952883958, 0.0, 1.5856021302207792e-05, 1.85282370971991e-09, 7.847884296004132e-05, 7.892374230999442e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001345595752392524, 1.7280595427306546e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.632870994215327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.982574264453053e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021114482839080916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014558141826284893, 0.0021376218192213055, 0.0, 5.918752416432939e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022775938478309348, 0.00012546112995290542, 0.0, 6.447558847750315e-08, 0.0, 0.09113233131666035, 5.788464108470929e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042063168733755395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.071423649825657e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.5933986616013235e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.689110334896757 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715634645.09861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715634645.09861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 670, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9822377922953592, 0.017762207704640758 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1636, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[ChatGPT](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT), the large language model chatbot released by OpenAI, first launched to the public in November of 2022 using GPT-3.5. Since then the [GPT-4 model](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GPT-4), launched in March of 2023, has been added as one of the available models for subscribers. In March of 2024 [rumors circulated](https://www.tomsguide.com/ai/chatgpt/chatgpt-could-get-a-gpt-5-upgrade-as-soon-as-this-summer-heres-what-we-know-so-far) that the launch of the next GPT generation for ChatGPT, whether GPT-4.5 or GPT-5, could happen soon." }, { "id": 22304, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?", "short_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?", "url_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2025?", "slug": "human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:48:22.746590Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.577556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 70, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T19:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 118, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15863, "name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1", "emoji": "🐦🦠", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cdc-cover-final.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-07-01T20:27:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-06-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-10T21:27:29.753744Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-17T12:22:31.888026Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22304, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:48:22.746590Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T19:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T19:18:02.818371Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 11, 2024, and before January 1, 2025, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 22304, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735672217.899967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735672217.899967, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 114, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.007 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.993, 0.007 ], "means": [ 0.0375679819115014 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.12361022496721, 3.2152983790423173, 1.8079748715349213, 0.7144810033890627, 0.31514319295084336, 0.9639496613159209, 0.17571884006187413, 0.0, 0.8918143069229153, 0.034696093969595776, 0.20337004215512375, 0.021896605555686482, 0.007858760696402532, 0.0018032236332332975, 0.0, 0.3224644108444249, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01889469055248197, 0.14181361599621176, 0.02529677777500878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39465029486301006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03347459912769655, 0.0, 0.07015702779701344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0312425072014284, 0.01505059801104587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005032122352993422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016466199934954406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0039685052601550535, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847248887964451, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007369602243589552, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1265601592475675, 0.0, 0.03584292707174096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02034849615368459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.71776348084745, "peer_score": 13.746226723525956, "coverage": 0.9999563738620081, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999563738620081, "spot_peer_score": 13.778720420487572, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "baseline_archived_score": 87.71776348084745, "peer_archived_score": 13.746226723525956, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.778720420487572, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288066.720618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288066.720618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 100, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9492436167848286, 0.05075638321517141 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 566, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally." }, { "id": 22302, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?", "short_title": "NVIDIA Stock Above $950 Before May 21?", "url_title": "NVIDIA Stock Above $950 Before May 21?", "slug": "nvidia-stock-above-950-before-may-21", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:10:53.243266Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.315622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 86, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 639, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22302, "title": "Will NVIDIA's stock price close above $950 on any single day before May 21, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T20:10:53.243266Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-20T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 79% year-to-date as of April 15, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 16, 2024, and before May 21, 2024, the price of NVIDIA stock (NVDA), in US dollars, at market close is greater than $950. Resolution will be determined according to the close value shown by [Yahoo finance historical data](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/history).", "fine_print": "* If there is a stock split or similar price adjustment the resolution value will be adjusted to account for the split.", "post_id": 22302, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716237020.582385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716237020.582385, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.155969487006629 ], "histogram": [ [ 16.135201575954994, 17.480827044575918, 0.009718386013924465, 0.42511135133473077, 0.10027480662596526, 0.0881163443244583, 0.11066086907411546, 0.1626202780716856, 0.08072415078315619, 0.02763987144556652, 0.8888697435241759, 0.07728901909489894, 0.23020404916800646, 0.04683606263691778, 0.005635505555713409, 0.5632500158975092, 0.09214710301738899, 0.1906421879039764, 0.06287062902374921, 0.008583481858000517, 0.020236013609191944, 0.010325644271723262, 0.042604468479956095, 0.011329075408530474, 1.4466069859395932e-06, 0.4962836700541613, 0.032937370201331105, 0.005229587839133154, 0.03491872885987178, 0.0, 0.5932972757802604, 0.1609997501183282, 0.0, 0.0075867054184220835, 0.13566646538146668, 0.537177978725615, 0.16837447841023767, 0.005769889868869994, 0.03683936355404236, 0.004974328143166466, 1.3209312368107353, 0.0, 0.4518811468378592, 0.23559498402722123, 0.004499259707527823, 0.20023872408231577, 0.030687394279236332, 7.228795349143744e-07, 0.256950598596835, 0.03855252144478106, 1.3944436300411933, 0.13278252754288325, 3.0248645947406055e-06, 0.49971698055667313, 0.3220474499407217, 9.00214626711604e-07, 1.9236519298034403e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4102909110232274e-09, 0.44357614210169166, 0.024365420055003747, 0.4071104190487529, 0.29030628597660674, 4.046105783841509e-09, 0.22130969581804152, 0.25324615929040034, 0.000692965168396823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13097511357919384, 4.5344079535263155e-06, 1.659235177319562e-05, 0.03238578636419339, 0.2728483505052505, 0.3289702459416875, 5.739669385980414e-10, 2.71637753931414e-05, 0.0, 0.004171584053720165, 0.02871101466847199, 0.0, 4.324083739401589e-11, 1.273489982328571e-06, 0.0, 0.2862372140134793, 0.0, 0.0, 5.74516393455945e-07, 0.19906374336518673, 0.08262677342027157, 0.019298689876419594, 0.0, 0.017158769689089307, 0.0, 0.19978144695614083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.835555135220486 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.99865647508473, "coverage": 0.9974142224861585, "baseline_score": 60.03663537893385, "spot_peer_score": 42.477002275222254, "peer_archived_score": 27.99865647508473, "baseline_archived_score": 60.03663537893385, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.477002275222254 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716232070.500797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716232070.500797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 639, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6989699413467689, 0.301030058653231 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 3958, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 79% year-to-date as of April 15, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD)." }, { "id": 22301, "title": "Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?", "short_title": "Claude Top of Chatbot Arena on May 16, 2024?", "url_title": "Claude Top of Chatbot Arena on May 16, 2024?", "slug": "claude-top-of-chatbot-arena-on-may-16-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-11T19:59:03.025137Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.290125Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 402, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3067, "type": "tournament", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024", "slug": "bridgewater-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2_PvdoCe3.webp", "prize_pool": "25000.00", "start_date": "2024-04-16T15:00:30Z", "close_date": "2024-05-22T03:59:30Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-05-20T22:00:17.744000Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T14:17:30.450881Z", "edited_at": "2025-04-01T21:45:06.047752Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22301, "title": "Will a version of Claude be the top model on chat.lmsys.org leaderboard on May 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T19:59:03.025137Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-30T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-16T16:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, at noon ET on May 16, 2024, a version of Claude is the top model on the [chat.lmsys.org](https://chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard) leaderboard, when sorted by Arena ELO rating.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if any other model version is listed as the top model.", "fine_print": "* If another model is tied with a Claude model for the top position, with the same ELO, the question will resolve as **No**. \n* The numerical \"Rank\" column will be ignored for the purposes of determining resolution of this question. Only the ELO rating matters. A tie will be considered to be another model having an identical arena ELO rating to Claude.", "post_id": 22301, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809972.964129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809972.964129, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.009651557515574569 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.167803580650343, 20.53839208616905, 0.0304673087852987, 0.007511121458770299, 0.2855546276580524, 0.04731372241369587, 0.006644486864588845, 1.4985287680290047e-05, 0.0013518010005503993, 0.0045813780133995095, 0.09788344048924566, 0.0, 0.034704946482420604, 0.00029433987768409854, 0.009401517543088362, 0.18052638838794363, 0.0002865165471915382, 0.0004900120390212246, 0.007263003318632593, 0.000412970255697625, 0.006102413929209249, 2.0888346039735014e-05, 7.942251228572626e-06, 0.001028565475525954, 0.0, 0.002785575305514509, 1.3400595656979713e-06, 9.535604638637928e-07, 0.0003125887597113705, 0.0, 0.12003994366904841, 5.405234730481219e-08, 7.37902533940639e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008667314212266022, 7.21595367986973e-08, 8.110289968616344e-05, 0.0, 1.1082629678363417e-08, 0.0007758122715005389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002472305382826592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010249393552429658, 1.5294364562758494e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.157352352460754e-06, 0.0001730965437420823, 1.978882450652322e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003328241929981329, 2.308598693027233e-06, 3.938276094871886e-08, 0.0003923398850967014, 0.0, 9.740014191128404e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020902485247923348, 6.679945908863184e-07, 0.0, 0.0006107474548491329, 0.0, 0.0017637592857245345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.540650325003214e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04317834702009405, 0.0, 0.00013443779856356074, 0.0, 0.0, 3.713020183209838e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017256388985329313 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 25.366666240738635, "coverage": 0.9999086540398572, "baseline_score": 89.68464725475785, "spot_peer_score": 29.156200928453007, "peer_archived_score": 25.366666240738635, "baseline_archived_score": 89.68464725475785, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.156200928453007 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715809973.036143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715809973.036143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 402, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1064, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Chatbot Arena is a [benchmarking platform for large language models (LLMs)](https://lmsys.org/blog/2023-05-03-arena/) It uses an Elo rating system similar to the one used in chess to rank LLMs by their capabilities. Rankings are based on user ratings of different LLM systems." }, { "id": 22299, "title": "Will the result from Study 2 of \"Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information\" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?", "short_title": "Information Endowment Effect Replicates?", "url_title": "Information Endowment Effect Replicates?", "slug": "information-endowment-effect-replicates", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 129286, "username": "Transparent_Replications" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-11T18:46:47.079656Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.715890Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 1774, "type": "question_series", "name": "Transparent Replications", "slug": "transparent-replications", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/transparent-replications_cF7nawx.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2022-10-03T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-08T21:31:32.204227Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22299, "title": "Will the result from Study 2 of \"Loss Aversion, the Endowment Effect, and Gain-Loss Framing Shape Preferences for Noninstrumental Information\" (PNAS, 2022) replicate?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T18:46:47.079656Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-14T05:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-14T05:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-06T14:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-26T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in Nature or Science involving online participants.\n\n## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of the Transparent Replications project, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/about/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the eight previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the main study result is statistically significant in our replication (at significance level of p < 0.05, with the effect in the same direction as the original results). Otherwise, it will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "## Original Study Results\n\nIn Study 2 of the original [research paper](https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2202700119), participants who were “endowed” with a bundle of 3 facts to learn (as shown in the Study Summary) were more likely to choose to learn that 3-fact bundle instead of learning a 4-fact bundle presented as an alternative option; in contrast, participants who *weren’t* “endowed” with either bundle and who could freely choose between them were more likely to choose to learn the 4-fact bundle. \n\n## Study Summary\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Information_Endownment_Effect_Diagram.jpeg\" alt=\"Information Endowment Effect Diagram\" />\n*[Click here for a higher resolution version of the study image](https://drive.google.com/file/d/1ser7bvtfpazRnkBKBjUHJEm98e1DRbKj/view?usp=sharing)*\n\nThe original study randomized participants into one of two conditions: endowed and nonendowed. In the endowed condition, participants were told that they were on course to learn a specific bundle of three facts and were then offered the option to learn a separate bundle of four facts instead. In the nonendowed condition, participants were simply offered a choice between learning a bundle of three or a separate bundle of four facts, with the bundles shown in randomized order. \n\nResults of a chi-square goodness-of-fit test indicated that participants in the endowed condition were more likely to express a preference for learning three (versus four) facts than participants in the nonendowed condition. This supported the original researchers’ hypothesis that individuals exhibit the endowment effect for non-instrumental information.\n\nIn our study, we followed the same procedure, except that we distinguished between the half of the nonendowed condition where the 3-fact bundle was displayed on top and the half where the 4-fact bundle was displayed on top (these were represented by Conditions 2 and 3 respectively in the diagram above), so that we could conduct an additional analysis in case order effects had been contributing to the original study results (explained below). For the purposes of assessing whether the original study replicated in our dataset, however, Conditions 2 and 3 were pooled into one combined nonendowed condition. This means that our pooled Conditions 2 and 3 are together equivalent to (a larger version of) the original study’s nonendowed condition. (For details, see ***The Details*** section.)\n\nNone of the facts presented were of objectively greater utility or interest than any of the others. Facts related to, for example, the behavior of a particular animal, or the fact that the unicorn is the national animal of a country. Furthermore, each time we ran the experiment, we randomized which facts appeared in which order across both bundles. The subjective utility of a given fact would not be expected to affect experimental results due to this randomization process.\n\nThe original study included 146 adult participants from Prolific. Our replication included 631 adult participants (not counting exclusions) from MTurk via Positly.com.\n\n### The Details\n\nIn the original experiment, two variables had varied across conditions - both endowment *and* the order of presentation of the two bundles had varied. Option order had been randomized within the endowed condition such that a 3-fact bundle was shown on top half the time while a 4-fact bundle was shown on top the other half of the time within that condition. On the other hand, option order was not randomized in the endowed condition: the 3-fact bundle was always shown on top within that condition. To control for ordering effects, we increased sample size to 1.5 times our original planned size and split the nonendowed condition (now double the size it would otherwise have been) into two separate conditions: Conditions 2 and 3. Our participants were randomized into one of three conditions, as described below:\n\n* Condition 1: Endowed - Participants were told that they were on course to learn a specific bundle of three facts and were then offered the option to learn four different facts instead.\n* Condition 2: Nonendowed with 3-fact bundle displayed on top - Participants were offered a choice between learning three facts or four facts, with the bundle of 3 facts appearing as the top option.\n* Condition 3: Nonendowed with 4-fact bundle displayed on top - Participants were offered a choice between learning three facts or four facts, with the bundle of 4 facts appearing as the top option\n\n### Analysis\n\nTo evaluate the replicability of the original study, we ran a chi-square goodness-of-fit test to evaluate differences in preference for learning three facts between participants in the endowed versus the pooled nonendowed conditions. As stated in our pre-registration, our policy was to consider the study to have replicated if this test yielded a statistically significant result, with the difference in the same direction as the original finding (i.e., with a higher proportion of participants selecting the 3-fact bundle in the endowed compared to the pooled nonendowed conditions).", "post_id": 22299, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713803953.920158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713803953.920158, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.63 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6288824901055979 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 1.436735677115472, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8871005774564371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -1.9692259702917205, "coverage": 0.992550337567367, "baseline_score": 27.584390166459556, "spot_peer_score": -6.747120309449561, "peer_archived_score": -1.9692259702917205, "baseline_archived_score": 27.584390166459556, "spot_peer_archived_score": -6.747120309449561 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714117354.86216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714117354.86216, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.46913743003411645, 0.5308625699658835 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Transparent Replications Project](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/) by [Clearer Thinking](https://www.clearerthinking.org/) aims to replicate studies from randomly-selected, newly-published papers in prestigious psychology journals, as well as *any* psychology papers recently published in Nature or Science involving online participants.\n\n## Context: How often have social science studies tended to replicate in the past?\n\nIn [one historical project](https://discovery.dundee.ac.uk/ws/files/7385883/RPP_SCIENCE_2015.pdf) that attempted to replicate 100 experimental and correlation studies from 2008 in three important psychology journals, [analysis indicated](http://datacolada.org/47) that they successfully replicated 40%, failed to replicate 30%, and the remaining 30% were inconclusive. (To put it another way, of the replications that were not inconclusive, 57% were successful replications.)\n\nIn [another project](https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-018-0399-z.epdf), researchers attempted to replicate all experimental social science science papers (that met basic inclusion criteria) published in Nature or Science (the two most prestigious general science journals) between 2010 and 2015. They found a statistically significant effect in the same direction as the original study for 62% (i.e., 13 out of 21) studies, and the effect sizes of the replications were, on average, about 50% of the original effect sizes. Replicability varied between 57% and 67% depending on the replicability indicator used.\n\nThe replication described here was run as part of the Transparent Replications project, which has not run enough replications yet for us to give any base replication rates. Having said that, if you’re interested in reading more about the project, you can read more [here](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/about/). And [here is where you can find write-ups for the eight previous replications we’ve completed](https://replications.clearerthinking.org/replications/)." }, { "id": 22298, "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Israel Invasion of Rafah Before June 1, 2024?", "url_title": "Israel Invasion of Rafah Before June 1, 2024?", "slug": "israel-invasion-of-rafah-before-june-1-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123015, "username": "IY" } ], "created_at": "2024-04-11T17:32:31.900568Z", "published_at": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.291788Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", 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"Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3109, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q2 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q2", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/upscaled-2x-q2-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-04-10T14:00:13Z", "close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", 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"normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22298, "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah before June 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-11T17:32:31.900568Z", "open_time": "2024-04-11T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-31T22:00:31.900000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-13T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour which [has threatened](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/egypt-threatens-to-suspend-key-peace-treaty-if-israel-pushes-into-rafah-on-its-border-officials-say.html) to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to state that an invasion is imminent and that Israel has a specific date set, though on April 9 it [was reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/israel-defense-gallant-deny-rafah-invasion-date) that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said there is no date set.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) before June 1, 2024.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"}}>\n</iframe>", "fine_print": "* Israeli military operations will be considered to be both of the following, or any similar entries added to the map:\n * \"Reported Israeli clearing operations\"\n * \"Claimed furthest Israeli advances\"\n* If Metaculus has reason to believe that the ISW map is no longer being updated or maintained the question will be **annulled**.\n* The coordinates of the six locations are as follows:\n 1. 31°18'57.5\"N 34°14'14.0\"E (Taiba Mosque)\n 2. 31°18'44.8\"N 34°15'04.9\"E (Helmi Saqr Sultan Mosque)\n 3. 31°18'18.2\"N 34°15'40.0\"E\n 4. 31°17'31.8\"N 34°16'21.0\"E\n 5. 31°16'24.3\"N 34°16'23.2\"E\n 6. 31°15'41.0\"N 34°15'29.8\"E", "post_id": 22298, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1715697024.301593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 235, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715697024.301593, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 235, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9602649536745084 ], "histogram": [ [ 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null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1715614251.339725, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 233, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.09096475381746794, 0.9090352461825321 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1126, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel) on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour which [has threatened](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/11/egypt-threatens-to-suspend-key-peace-treaty-if-israel-pushes-into-rafah-on-its-border-officials-say.html) to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nIsraeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has continued to state that an invasion is imminent and that Israel has a specific date set, though on April 9 it [was reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/09/israel-defense-gallant-deny-rafah-invasion-date) that Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has said there is no date set." }, { "id": 22245, "title": "Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Nebraska EVs allocated WTA in 2024?", "url_title": "Nebraska EVs allocated WTA in 2024?", "slug": "nebraska-evs-allocated-wta-in-2024", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-10T03:54:02.246062Z", "published_at": "2024-04-16T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.850770Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-16T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T16:29:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22245, "title": "Will Nebraska legally allocate its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis in the 2024 presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-04-10T03:54:02.246062Z", "open_time": "2024-04-16T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-19T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-19T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T16:29:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-06T21:08:09.465478Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US presidential elections, Nebraska is unusual in that it does not automatically award all of its Electoral College votes to the state-wide winner. Instead, it awards two of its five electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each of its three Congressional districts. Nebraska has used this method [since 1992.](https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/) The only other state that currently allocates its electoral votes in this manner is Maine.\n\nWhile two of [Nebraska's Congressional districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_congressional_districts?useskin=vector) are strongly Republican, its [2nd district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district?useskin=vector), concentrated around Omaha and its suburbs, is highly competitive, and [in 2023](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2023-partisan-voting-index/118-district-map-and-list) had a [Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index?useskin=vector) of EVEN. In the [2022 midterms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nebraska?useskin=vector), Republican Don Bacon won the district by less than three points. \n\nIn the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), Donald Trump won NE-02 by 2.24 points; but in [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), the district flipped, and Joe Biden won by 6.5 points.\n\nIn certain scenarios, Nebraska's 2nd district could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.\n\n For example, if incumbent president Joe Biden were to retain the three Rust Belt battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but lose the three Sun Belt battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and the rest of the electoral map were to remain unchanged from 2020, without Nebraska's 2nd district, Biden would have 269 electoral votes, one shy of the 270 needed to win an Electoral College majority. Winning NE-02 again would secure victory in this scenario; but failing to win it would result in a [contingent election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election?useskin=vector)\n\nAs of April 2024, there are [efforts underway](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/07/trump-nebraska-electoral-college/73229967007/) to have Nebraska revert to winner-take-all electoral vote allocation. Former president and Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump has called on the state to revert to WTA allocation, and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen has [urged the state legislature](https://twitter.com/TeamPillen/status/1777882507544793455) to pass a bill to that effect in an as-yet uncalled special legislative session: \n\n>I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line, thereby honoring our constitutional founding, unifying our state and ending the three-decades-old mistake of allocating Nebraska's electoral votes differently than all but one other state.\n\n>Although it is now clear that WTA cannot pass during the regular legislative session, I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to moving it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it.\n\n>I will sign WTA into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if in the 2024 United States presidential election, according to legislation, an official statement from election officials, or [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) media reports, the state of Nebraska allocates its electoral votes on a winner-take-all basis as a matter of law, regardless of the performance of each candidate in each of its Congressional districts. \n\nThe question resolves as **No** if this does not occur.", "fine_print": "Whether Nebraska's electors actually cast their votes as instructed, i.e., whether they are faithful or faithless, is immaterial to the resolution of this question. This question concerns only whether Nebraska's electoral votes are, as a matter of law, allocated on a winner-take-all basis.", "post_id": 22245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730030640.374289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730030640.374289, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.007852022217241397 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.454579414472233, 2.622735473226655, 0.0, 0.2272879045894189, 0.0, 0.11400131221168269, 0.10034559348601702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.73973764727232, "peer_score": 2.651746783876698, "coverage": 0.9996556023457532, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996556023457532, "spot_peer_score": 2.008320213654052, "baseline_archived_score": 93.73973764727232, "peer_archived_score": 2.651746783876698, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.008320213654052 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287851.957507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287851.957507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993533151996419, 0.0006466848003581221 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US presidential elections, Nebraska is unusual in that it does not automatically award all of its Electoral College votes to the state-wide winner. Instead, it awards two of its five electoral votes to the state-wide winner, and one vote to the winner of each of its three Congressional districts. Nebraska has used this method [since 1992.](https://www.270towin.com/content/split-electoral-votes-maine-and-nebraska/) The only other state that currently allocates its electoral votes in this manner is Maine.\n\nWhile two of [Nebraska's Congressional districts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_congressional_districts?useskin=vector) are strongly Republican, its [2nd district](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska%27s_2nd_congressional_district?useskin=vector), concentrated around Omaha and its suburbs, is highly competitive, and [in 2023](https://www.cookpolitical.com/cook-pvi/2023-partisan-voting-index/118-district-map-and-list) had a [Cook Partisan Voting Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index?useskin=vector) of EVEN. In the [2022 midterms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Nebraska?useskin=vector), Republican Don Bacon won the district by less than three points. \n\nIn the [2016 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), Donald Trump won NE-02 by 2.24 points; but in [2020](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector#Results_by_state), the district flipped, and Joe Biden won by 6.5 points.\n\nIn certain scenarios, Nebraska's 2nd district could play a crucial role in determining the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.\n\n For example, if incumbent president Joe Biden were to retain the three Rust Belt battlegrounds of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, but lose the three Sun Belt battleground states of Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia, and the rest of the electoral map were to remain unchanged from 2020, without Nebraska's 2nd district, Biden would have 269 electoral votes, one shy of the 270 needed to win an Electoral College majority. Winning NE-02 again would secure victory in this scenario; but failing to win it would result in a [contingent election.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election?useskin=vector)\n\nAs of April 2024, there are [efforts underway](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/04/07/trump-nebraska-electoral-college/73229967007/) to have Nebraska revert to winner-take-all electoral vote allocation. Former president and Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump has called on the state to revert to WTA allocation, and Nebraska Governor Jim Pillen has [urged the state legislature](https://twitter.com/TeamPillen/status/1777882507544793455) to pass a bill to that effect in an as-yet uncalled special legislative session: \n\n>I am steadfast in my commitment to get winner-take-all over the finish line, thereby honoring our constitutional founding, unifying our state and ending the three-decades-old mistake of allocating Nebraska's electoral votes differently than all but one other state.\n\n>Although it is now clear that WTA cannot pass during the regular legislative session, I look forward to partnering with legislative leaders to moving it forward in a special session, when there is sufficient support in the Legislature to pass it.\n\n>I will sign WTA into law the moment the Legislature gets it to my desk." }, { "id": 22168, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?", "short_title": "RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22?", "url_title": "RFK Jr. to drop out by Oct 22?", "slug": "rfk-jr-to-drop-out-by-oct-22", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-07T21:23:20.311288Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.887677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 110, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22168, "title": "Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign by October 22, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-07T21:23:20.311288Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-21T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-23T19:18:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of April 7 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 10.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $70 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if on or before October 22, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.\n\nHowever, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.\n\nAny revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.", "post_id": 22168, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724442418.153645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724442418.153645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 110, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9851240269152914 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0009660177842960614, 0.00020590647817486253, 0.0003227609056870134, 0.0, 0.0007681975038966764, 0.0024395235461833597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004714670427999434, 0.0, 0.0006583256623226762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007110331241778366, 0.0003927500432777607, 0.0007172193076884906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014276721700805746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001339973909817788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00466364638665728, 0.0002607312162157457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005032008557371699, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010255387381884256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001636076046206177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00771377664606758, 0.0, 0.004135742170104737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044671270489441035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26370898050540553, 0.0, 0.00172077095989845, 0.008707889412989014, 0.0, 0.032530673332192755, 0.021177014631405623, 0.19385706837950792, 0.04633350198297515, 0.05202547073419633, 0.5654400788495162, 0.08901505268017001, 0.14311815425017912, 0.9095843486938924, 17.054157352296734 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.88102926379595, "coverage": 0.6944473557114986, "baseline_score": -97.30646910910632, "spot_peer_score": 113.94092953255037, "peer_archived_score": 33.88102926379595, "baseline_archived_score": -97.30646910910632, "spot_peer_archived_score": 113.94092953255037 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724422876.011453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724422876.011453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.038265065010393395, 0.9617349349896066 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 491, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of April 7 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 10.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $70 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates." }, { "id": 22161, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024?", "url_title": "Iran deadly attack on Israel before May 2024?", "slug": "iran-deadly-attack-on-israel-before-may-2024", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-07T03:50:41.923235Z", "published_at": "2024-04-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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"close_date": "2024-07-04T04:00:13Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-07-01T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-04-08T15:18:13.207143Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:20:35.824028Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22161, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before May 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-07T03:50:41.923235Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-11T02:00:54Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-11T02:00:54Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-01T17:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-01T06:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders. \n\nIn the aftermath, the United States has increased its security posture in the region, anticipating a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israeli or American assets. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials [consider such an attack \"inevitable.\"](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/politics/us-israel-iran-retaliation-strike/index.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before May 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 22161, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714545907.705882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714545907.705882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.019246514059172853 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.434542992017995, 21.099279168350442, 1.2219456837513203, 1.5212737020326956, 0.5069786091850124, 1.1714215015414349, 0.7087804264382623, 1.0882112900918068, 0.2937122915180936, 0.009970593496909909, 0.1976206397933602, 0.003230907245926424, 0.0034525189080444455, 0.0029961738920438593, 0.005361811199465481, 0.006587805556757522, 3.304342567914185e-06, 0.0002965357030806697, 0.0822306327677854, 0.0, 0.02399898201501449, 0.004062790700040915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003471451134050251, 0.00121038080522445, 0.005852870349139725, 0.0, 0.00028310999073286204, 0.0, 0.004695785924777903, 0.0937333479929266, 4.251171522606372e-09, 0.009092189002815648, 3.484028603648286e-07, 0.0944892166108255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26044864041673954, 0.0008861515913157155, 0.0, 3.584036845620279e-05, 0.0, 2.0440526798217706e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017030542758554547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.639954717543928e-05, 0.03335439708579379, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004637067920232992, 0.006395063068337951, 0.0, 9.81617229263954e-05, 0.0, 0.006829949158144936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.677663228448605e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006732755474461427, 0.016877793777148434, 0.000246252502038393, 0.003261523105616613, 1.1644016196501588e-06, 0.0, 7.579092235437038e-07, 0.00021197084401551643, 2.65951557854345e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 8.642408965648907e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01647353220231057, 0.0001156781825027241, 5.729482575395638e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.055654443006722e-05, 0.00012033008910538904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015715934825795328 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 34.161995555693025, "coverage": 0.9999709886205163, "baseline_score": 83.13923661856278, "spot_peer_score": 24.218407930918513, "peer_archived_score": 34.161995555693025, "baseline_archived_score": 83.13923661856278, "spot_peer_archived_score": 24.218407930918513 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714545907.800786, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714545907.800786, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 472, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 31, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1956, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, an Israeli airstrike [targeted the Iranian embassy](https://apnews.com/article/israel-syria-airstrike-iranian-embassy-edca34c52d38c8bc57281e4ebf33b240) in Damascus, Syria, resulting in significant casualties including the deaths of top Iranian commanders. \n\nIn the aftermath, the United States has increased its security posture in the region, anticipating a retaliatory strike by Iran against Israeli or American assets. Senior U.S. and Israeli officials [consider such an attack \"inevitable.\"](https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/05/politics/us-israel-iran-retaliation-strike/index.html)" }, { "id": 22150, "title": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?", "short_title": "U.S. population > China before 2200?", "url_title": "U.S. population > China before 2200?", "slug": "us-population-china-before-2200", "author_id": 145845, "author_username": "christian.q.chung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-06T03:12:13.698979Z", "published_at": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:22:32.399076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2200-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22150, "title": "Will the population of the United States be higher than the People's Republic of China at any point before 2200?", "created_at": "2024-04-06T03:12:13.698979Z", "open_time": "2024-04-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2200-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2200-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2200-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if at any point before January 1, 2200, the population of the United States is greater than the population of China according to data from the World Bank.\n\nThe population figure for the United States will be resolved using the World Bank's \"Population, total\" page for the U.S., which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=US). The population figure for China will be resolved using the World Bank's corresponding page for that country, which can be accessed [here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?contextual=default&locations=CN).", "fine_print": "Should the resolution pages move or otherwise change, this question will resolve using the World Bank's most direct successor page using equivalent data for total population for each country. \n\nIf either the U.S. or China cease to exist without a successor state which unambiguously retains control of virtually all previous territories held before dissolution, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIf the World Bank ceases to exist before 2200, a comparably established global institution can replace the World Bank. In the event that no such global institution exists, the question will resolve ambiguously.\n\nIn the event that either the U.S. or China annex or lose significant amounts of populated territory, the World Bank population estimates will still be used regardless of conflicts with de facto or de jure borders.\n\nIf, before the resolution date, the World Bank or a replacement organization ceases publishing total population figures for countries or changes its methodology so substantially that Metaculus Admins deem it inappropriate to continue as a resolution source for this question, then Metaculus Admins may select other sources that produce similar estimates, such as the United Nations or its successor. If no such equivalent can be found then this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 22150, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757640141.997002, "end_time": 1789176143.564, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.183 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757640141.997002, "end_time": 1789176143.564, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.09 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.183 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.91, 0.09 ], "means": [ 0.1580858577773973 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0941681173036915, 0.362543115534516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7394682331392083, 0.08508524734423982, 0.0, 0.6286996658179782, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29286789626133847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5295781724391592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4411588324588233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12874931591104752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17692120631776423, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287227.695764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287227.695764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9075766436882684, 0.09242335631173162 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2023, the population of the United States and the People's Republic of China (China) stood at 0.33 billion and 1.41 billion respectively. However, China's population [fell by roughly 2 million in 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-population-drops-2nd-year-raises-long-term-growth-concerns-2024-01-17/), indicating a faster decline in population than previously projected. [New population projections](https://theconversation.com/chinas-population-is-about-to-shrink-for-the-first-time-since-the-great-famine-struck-60-years-ago-heres-what-it-means-for-the-world-176377) estimate that by 2100, China's population [could fall by as much as 70%](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/) to less than 500 million people in the worst case scenario.\n\nComparatively massive population declines are not limited to China; South Korea has seen repeated downward adjustments to population, a recent estimate being a [70% decline by 2100](https://thediplomat.com/2022/08/south-koreas-demographic-trends-continue-to-decline/).\n\nIn contrast, the population of the U.S. has [continued to rise](https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/dec/popchange-data-text.html), though at a slower pace compared to previous decades. The official census estimates that [the U.S. population will peak at 370 million in 2080](https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2023/population-projections.html)." } ] }
