Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2700
{ "count": 6353, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2720", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2680", "results": [ { "id": 27017, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-united-nations-have-more-than-193-member-states-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.458372Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.102677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 27017, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:52:29.458372Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states exceeds 193 at any point between the question's opening date and 23:59:59 UTC on September 30, 2024 (inclusive). It will resolve negatively if the number of member states remains at or below 193 throughout this period.\n\nResolution will be based on the official membership count as reported on the United Nations website ([Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states)) in official UN press releases, or from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the UN's official numbers.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"member states\" refers to full member states of the United Nations, not observer states or any other category of affiliation.\n\nIf a new member state is admitted that would bring the number above 193 but its membership does not take effect until after the resolution date, the question will still resolve negatively.\n\nIf the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 27017, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126541.799368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126541.799368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06704041980080346 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.816367937417432, 0.9012033191072741, 0.5625398028433876, 0.0773927070098371, 4.021666431942586, 1.6225062254729186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.039056665564714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6076791370904222, 0.0, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126541.844895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126541.844895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9938053231254635, 0.006194676874536413 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members" }, { "id": 26986, "title": "Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-60-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.601425Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.124118Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26986, "title": "Will more than 60 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.601425Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 60 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26986, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213234.217266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213234.217266, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.4191531740256472 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 1.3066881030350368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 1.9074353916842877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7748628856652136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23351825246045652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.273166134231492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4331829240426629, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6935605674445081, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213234.24041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213234.24041, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.66275147769873, 0.33724852230126995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26985, "title": "Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-50-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.330063Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.538943Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26985, "title": "Will more than 50 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:23.330063Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 50 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26985, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213268.102742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4431 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213268.102742, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.4431 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5569, 0.4431 ], "means": [ 0.44160745401194496 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1526622014128527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.6701049752490269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7489421554231077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43844216485604137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.7452139815962113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 15.549019774756221, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 15.549019774756221 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213268.128287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213268.128287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5593668990812009, 0.44063310091879915 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26984, "title": "Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-40-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.941007Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.395701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26984, "title": "Will more than 40 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.941007Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:41:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 40 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213173.050934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213173.050934, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.497369002168221 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 1.2525259644339768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9734054564544192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5325522681110344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 2.1332470832803385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0033030479178713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41443698810707236, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213173.089269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213173.089269, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6421939040953466, 0.35780609590465345 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26983, "title": "Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-30-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.629336Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.142541Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26983, "title": "Will more than 30 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.629336Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 30 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213747.461123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.372 ], "centers": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213747.461123, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.372 ], "centers": [ 0.6166666666666667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.74 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.3833333333333333, 0.6166666666666667 ], "means": [ 0.5594109531469983 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.03499639918756375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.024000794967093, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.33132359669664, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.5744720982233396, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.6279842937936518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 30.25627700204313, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 30.25627700204313 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213747.508283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213747.508283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5070714380643688, 0.4929285619356312 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26982, "title": "Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-20-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.401360Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.529038Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26982, "title": "Will more than 20 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.401360Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T11:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 20 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213626.713948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213626.713948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.61 ], "centers": [ 0.67 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.32999999999999996, 0.67 ], "means": [ 0.6407241555415227 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05452450123047137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 1.5497775237181526, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.6093063966539898, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.896538634439714, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.3108965812370096, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830478, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830478 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213626.746339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213626.746339, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3626188805298163, 0.6373811194701837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26981, "title": "Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-more-than-10-chinese-aircraft-violate-taiwans-air-defense-identification-zone-adiz-in-a-single-day-between-august-15-and-september-15-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.163007Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.246734Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26981, "title": "Will more than 10 Chinese aircraft violate Taiwan's air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:22.163007Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-16T15:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Taiwan reports more than 10 aircraft violated its air defense identification zone (ADIZ) in a single day between August 15 and September 15, 2024, inclusive. Resolution will be determined according to the [PLATracker's](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) spreadsheet, [Taiwan ADIZ Violations](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing).", "fine_print": "* Specifically, the column \"Total Aircraft Tracked in de facto ADIZ\" will be used on the \"Daily Totals\" tab to determine the maximum number within the designated dates. If there are modifications to the spreadsheet Metaculus will use the same data in its updated format.\n* If the tracker has not been updated to include data through September 15, 2024, as of September 26, 2024, Metaculus will fill in any missing information using the [reports published by Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF) (MND), following the same date convention and methodology as the spreadsheet.", "post_id": 26981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213779.487376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213779.487376, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.80228488867191 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.121459168170666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3822174049978546, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.8694226837649567, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0839758874887769, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.17630000022929448, 0.4087506853414205 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213779.522235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213779.522235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22447125294944137, 0.7755287470505586 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The number of aircraft that China has sent near Taiwan has trended upwards in recent years, and is commonly seen as an [intimidation tactic](https://apnews.com/article/china-taiwan-aircraft-ships-harassment-5dd5c16577e33b7cf464a7de00e54092). Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense (MND) [tracks nearby Chinese aircraft activity](https://www.mnd.gov.tw/PublishTable.aspx?Types=%E5%8D%B3%E6%99%82%E8%BB%8D%E4%BA%8B%E5%8B%95%E6%85%8B&title=%E5%9C%8B%E9%98%B2%E6%B6%88%E6%81%AF), especially aircraft entering into its [air defense identification zone](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_defense_identification_zone) (ADIZ).\n\nFollowing Lai Ching-te's inauguration as Taiwan's new president on May 20, 2024, China responded with an increase in military pressure. Following the inauguration, China launched two days of \"[punishment](https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/22/asia/china-military-drills-taiwan-punishment-intl-hnk/index.html)\" military drills around Taiwan's main island. In the 30 days since the inauguration, the average number of violations per day rose to 10, compared to an average of 6 per day in the 30 days leading up to the inauguration and 2 per day in the 30 days up to the January election. It is also the highest 30-day average since the previous peak in August-September 2022. In the 2-day period June 20-21, China [sent](https://simpleflying.com/china-66-military-taiwan-2-days/) 66 aircraft. \n\nAccording to the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-weekly-update-june-6-2024):\n\n>PRC officials signaled after Taiwan’s presidential election in January that it views the incoming DPP administration as hostile separatists who instigate cross-strait tensions. The PRC escalated its military and economic lines of coercion against Taiwan after Lai’s inauguration on May 20. PRC officials have maintained fierce rhetoric accusing Lai and the DPP of antagonism to justify the PRC’s actions since the inauguration. \n\n[PLATracker](https://www.platracker.com/trackers) maintains a [spreadsheet](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1qbfYF0VgDBJoFZN5elpZwNTiKZ4nvCUcs5a7oYwm52g/edit?usp=sharing) tracking the number of ADIZ violations reported by Taiwan each day. According to the spreadsheet:\n\n>Taiwan's ADIZ was originally established by the United States during the period of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty and covers large portions of mainland China. Today, Taiwan's MND uses a de facto ADIZ that ends at the median line, this means that aircraft tracked on the Chinese side of the median line are not included on the maps showing activity inside the ADIZ. The term \"ADIZ violation\" in this database is used exclusively to describe aircraft that enter the de facto ADIZ[.] While the MND has never officially designated a new ADIZ, they have included the \"median line extension\" that forms the Western border of the de facto ADIZ in some maps.\n\nTo control-c numbers out of the spreadsheet for your forecasting purposes, please see Youtube [How to Copy Data From View Only Google Sheets](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo-KE0Y-lYw)" }, { "id": 26980, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-120-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.910418Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.841485Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26980, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 120 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.910418Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-06T13:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 120 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26980, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213675.049683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213675.049683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.6990295246548179 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3381911385413752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6376996866280927, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5850506855707149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.724207900916349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8894295689656423, 0.153865828537011, 0.29095551644889905, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3346125934581994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13240104426112295, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -88.8968687611256, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -88.8968687611256 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213675.083248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213675.083248, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41643728648780354, 0.5835627135121965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26979, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-100-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.346030Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.801575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26979, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 100 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.346030Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-05T22:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 100 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26979, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213593.265726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8625 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213593.265726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.82 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8625 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.18000000000000005, 0.82 ], "means": [ 0.7725973872211346 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.046693086404289, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7278304415127033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.33432944568041745, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4494831144833147, 0.973648733400507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47257657666502184, 0.0, 1.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433588, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433588 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213593.302286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213593.302286, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.24763031890262777, 0.7523696810973722 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26978, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-80-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.019688Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.625518Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26978, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 80 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:21.019688Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 80 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26978, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213712.424567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213712.424567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8038518127797221 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6441340422812852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05048348581855406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 3.333559360120177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5059112341124612, 1.169884324943012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.5849592868929284, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213712.473563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213712.473563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.22678746273558192, 0.7732125372644181 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26977, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-accumulated-cyclone-energy-of-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-be-greater-than-60-on-october-7-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.632704Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.685078Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26977, "title": "Will the Accumulated Cyclone Energy of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season be greater than 60 on October 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.632704Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-28T01:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the observed \"North Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy\" reported by Colorado State University's real-time tracker for the 2024 hurricane season is greater than 60 through the date of October 7, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26977, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213199.391772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213199.391772, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8212188286956591 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037197912973893646, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7471400545026624, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9502081866046828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8249082519936364, 0.0, 0.0, 2.371860625384609, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.18526809390665838, 1.25193482646275, 0.0, 0.941743232975472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5213285030917811, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44071068269949837, 0.12926020709682073 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213199.414734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213199.414734, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1909163984276162, 0.8090836015723838 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> [Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated%20cyclone%20energy%20(ACE)%20is,winds%2C%20measured%20every%20six%20hours.) is a metric used by various agencies to express the energy released by a tropical cyclone during its lifetime. It is calculated by summing the square of a tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds, measured every six hours. \n\nFor North Atlantic Hurricanes, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) classifies the activity of the hurricane season based on ACE.\n\n| Category | ACE Index | % of 1951–2020 median |\n|-------------------|-----------|----------------------|\n| Extremely active | > 159.6 | > 165% |\n| Above-normal | > 126.1 | > 130% |\n| Near-normal | 73–126.1 | 75–130% |\n| Below-normal | < 73 | < 75% |\n\n\nOur World In Data gathered data on ACE for North Atlantic Hurricanes through 2022.\n\n<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/ace-north-atlantic-hurricanes\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\"></iframe>\n\nForecasters should note that all these data are the ACE for the entire hurricane season. This question asks about the ACE on October 7, which is before the season fully ends." }, { "id": 26976, "title": "Will California Senate Bill 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" be enacted before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-california-senate-bill-1047-the-safe-and-secure-innovation-for-frontier-artificial-intelligence-models-act-be-enacted-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.464608Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.696580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26976, "title": "Will California Senate Bill 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" be enacted before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.464608Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T13:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California's SB 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view, regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.\n\nSB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if [SB 1047](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) is passed by the California state legislature and signed by the Governor into law before October 1, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26976, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213557.438867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.299 ], "centers": [ 0.5616666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213557.438867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.299 ], "centers": [ 0.5616666666666666 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6333333333333333 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43833333333333335, 0.5616666666666666 ], "means": [ 0.4624854468328564 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.425769647389759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.2677936141292359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1086523296539448, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.6215089014821485, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -18.98997012035785, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -18.98997012035785 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723213557.46721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723213557.46721, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6113191906754831, 0.3886808093245169 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California's SB 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view, regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.\n\nSB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted." }, { "id": 26975, "title": "Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-federal-reserve-make-an-emergency-rate-cut-before-september-17-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.021227Z", "published_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.693083Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T12:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26975, "title": "Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T16:14:20.021227Z", "open_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T12:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-17T12:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-17T12:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.\n\nAt its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:\n\n> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.\n\nSince then, data indicating a [slowing jobs market](https://www.ft.com/content/d48e4925-d2fc-4ba1-a0ae-df2c7d0b7b45) and [fears of a recession](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/the-fed-is-trying-to-fight-a-ghost-as-recession-fears-mount.html) have led to sell-offs in global equities markets, with some observers calling for the Fed to make an [emergency rate cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html) before its scheduled September 2024 meeting.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the US Federal Reserve reduces the upper limit of the [federal funds rate target range](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU) before September 17, 2024. 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In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.\n\nSince then, data indicating a [slowing jobs market](https://www.ft.com/content/d48e4925-d2fc-4ba1-a0ae-df2c7d0b7b45) and [fears of a recession](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/the-fed-is-trying-to-fight-a-ghost-as-recession-fears-mount.html) have led to sell-offs in global equities markets, with some observers calling for the Fed to make an [emergency rate cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html) before its scheduled September 2024 meeting." }, { "id": 26962, "title": "Will California Senate Bill 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" be enacted before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "SB 1047 Passes in 2024?", "url_title": "SB 1047 Passes in 2024?", "slug": "sb-1047-passes-in-2024", 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"open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "California's SB 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view the regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.\n\nSB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_and_Secure_Innovation_for_Frontier_Artificial_Intelligence_Models_Act): \n\n>The Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act, or SB 1047, is a 2024 California bill intended to \"mitigate the risk of catastrophic harms from AI models so advanced that they are not yet known to exist\". Specifically, the bill would apply to models which cost more than $100 million to train and were trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations. The bill creates protections for whistleblowers, requires developers to perform risk assessment on their models prior to release, and establishes a Division of Frontier Models in the Government Operations Agency. If passed, the bill will also establish CalCompute, a public cloud computing cluster in the Department of Technology for startups, researchers and community groups.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if [SB 1047](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) is enacted before October 1, 2024. If this does not happen before that date, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26962, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727716646.403823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727716646.403823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013905913852974516 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.985559123557596, 10.469238903258534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03760861558440306, 0.045539105236417604, 0.0, 0.00019661527906424624, 0.0, 0.01646585164456002, 0.004584084770106733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05647086840323222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04770656323596906, 0.0, 0.0247417840561799, 0.0, 0.03993527825265552, 0.06422181623308063, 0.03493971513893592, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040232759807706464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016426726963989808, 0.00779517886068893, 0.01629510370809263, 0.0, 0.005502431181348858, 0.051866378761574745, 0.0, 0.00502613470183872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036980208258614667, 0.006015141743814965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010663893119007438, 0.010831122068851487, 0.0, 0.0020544360039948728, 0.0037945965240412326, 0.00417422322392255, 0.011728021578432645, 0.0007733503802370377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025427780098226938, 8.64351572853605e-05, 0.0, 0.01268664546658037, 0.00035552944344417064, 0.009385612895865456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00011877509551784324, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002609698034622361, 0.0012976193161547975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002725732315841639, 0.0034433511830771926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.273846461545045, "coverage": 0.9999888200237074, "baseline_score": 19.93018026933059, "spot_peer_score": 5.118134081865759, "peer_archived_score": 7.273846461545045, "baseline_archived_score": 19.93018026933059, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.118134081865759 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727716646.479229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727716646.479229, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 118, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "California's SB 1047, the \"Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act,\" has faced [pushback from large tech companies](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/355212/ai-artificial-intelligence-1047-bill-safety-liability). Last week, Anthropic [expressed opposition](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/25/exclusive-anthropic-weighs-in-on-california-ai-bill) to the bill, saying in a [letter](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/25003075-sia-sb-1047-anthropic) to the California Assembly that in its view the regulatory compliance could be too burdensome to the point of impeding innovation, and presenting a list of proposed changes.\n\nSB 1047 must pass the [state general assembly](https://digitaldemocracy.calmatters.org/bills/ca_202320240sb1047) and be signed by the Governor to be enacted.\n\nAccording to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safe_and_Secure_Innovation_for_Frontier_Artificial_Intelligence_Models_Act): \n\n>The Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act, or SB 1047, is a 2024 California bill intended to \"mitigate the risk of catastrophic harms from AI models so advanced that they are not yet known to exist\". Specifically, the bill would apply to models which cost more than $100 million to train and were trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations. The bill creates protections for whistleblowers, requires developers to perform risk assessment on their models prior to release, and establishes a Division of Frontier Models in the Government Operations Agency. If passed, the bill will also establish CalCompute, a public cloud computing cluster in the Department of Technology for startups, researchers and community groups." }, { "id": 26960, "title": "Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?", "short_title": "US Emergency Rate Cut in Q3 2024?", "url_title": "US Emergency Rate Cut in Q3 2024?", "slug": "us-emergency-rate-cut-in-q3-2024", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:57:59.137166Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.920303Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-16T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T17:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T17:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26960, "title": "Will the US Federal Reserve make an emergency rate cut before September 17, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:57:59.137166Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T17:32:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T17:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T17:32:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-16T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-16T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.\n\nAt its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:\n\n> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.\n\nSince then, data indicating a [slowing jobs market](https://www.ft.com/content/d48e4925-d2fc-4ba1-a0ae-df2c7d0b7b45) and [fears of a recession](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/the-fed-is-trying-to-fight-a-ghost-as-recession-fears-mount.html) have led to sell-offs in global equities markets, with some observers calling for the Fed to make an [emergency rate cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html) before its scheduled September 2024 meeting.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the US Federal Reserve reduces the upper limit of the [federal funds rate target range](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFEDTARU) before September 17, 2024. The reduction must occur after August 5, 2024 and must take effect before September 17, 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726506886.237752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726506886.237752, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.00397681330004347 ], "histogram": [ [ 14.84175223999751, 2.5182004380950067, 0.011256236138329163, 0.03465085765356109, 0.05404840656303164, 0.0012831903312438614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020908006710962453, 0.0015233659059589726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001791762833909524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010689465272835212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024230423344936518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014388723152031703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031981729232186985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020616515635595665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00042868757277762825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002791205479272105 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.868736445905368, "coverage": 0.9999927782188152, "baseline_score": 97.41825493784634, "spot_peer_score": 19.163314594837264, "peer_archived_score": 13.868736445905368, "baseline_archived_score": 97.41825493784634, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.163314594837264 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726506886.281148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726506886.281148, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 295, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The upper limit of the target range for the Fed Funds Rate currently sits at 5.50%, a 23-year high.\n\nAt its July 2024 meeting, the Fed [declined to cut rates](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240731a.htm), stating:\n\n> In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent.\n\nSince then, data indicating a [slowing jobs market](https://www.ft.com/content/d48e4925-d2fc-4ba1-a0ae-df2c7d0b7b45) and [fears of a recession](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/the-fed-is-trying-to-fight-a-ghost-as-recession-fears-mount.html) have led to sell-offs in global equities markets, with some observers calling for the Fed to make an [emergency rate cut](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/05/whartons-jeremy-siegel-says-fed-needs-to-make-an-emergency-rate-cut.html) before its scheduled September 2024 meeting." }, { "id": 26959, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-us-vice-presidential-debate-be-held-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:15:32.461317Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.232032Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26959, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:15:32.461317Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.\n\nIf no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "- A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.\n\n- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.\n\n- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.\nPre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\n- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.\n\n- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.\n\n- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as \"No\".\n\n- The debate must begin before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.", "post_id": 26959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126549.54826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.371 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126549.54826, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.371 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.629, 0.371 ], "means": [ 0.46093495279920965 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.049680819655039385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7800991750591255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6113412924661799, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.37974261668515136, 0.0, 1.3418305580589442, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1148171974242466, 1.4534882386316825, 0.0, 0.3445918901109067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07781834271445812, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.008649961225964252, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.4951263025680071, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5506534361945985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2336986044650962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.1011216878911307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011886366648789067, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02435728586146805, 0.05797234383343228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9985557302402781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 33.11319222172021, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 33.11319222172021 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126549.58173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126549.58173, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7253045827014171, 0.274695417298583 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 66, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick." }, { "id": 26958, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-youtube-be-banned-in-russia-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:15:32.376541Z", "published_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.163568Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26958, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:15:32.376541Z", "open_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.\n\nThe state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. \n\nIf the message returned is: \"доступ ограничивается к странице\" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf the message returned is: \"По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено\" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is *not* included in the blocklist and this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis question also resolves as **Yes** if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Note that the shortened version, `youtu.be` is already included in the blocklist, and this site does NOT trigger the resolution.\n\nMetaculus admins may also use another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if they have reasons to believe that the Roskomnadzor site's data are inaccurate.\n\nChanges in the phrasing used by Roskomnadzor's blocklist site will not affect resolution of this question, since the question resolves based on whether access to YouTube is limited or restricted according to Roskomnadzor, regardless of the exact wording.", "post_id": 26958, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723126605.939434, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.685 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723126605.939434, "end_time": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn." }, { "id": 26957, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-iran-carry-out-a-deadly-attack-within-israel-before-september-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:15:32.287186Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.292048Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 54, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26957, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T13:15:32.287186Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-01T11:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-07T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 26957, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040625.969016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5666666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040625.969016, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.48333333333333334 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5666666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5166666666666666, 0.48333333333333334 ], "means": [ 0.43526105507655133 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13987746542698778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3247112850967766, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6496633593019165, 0.7654150283970271, 0.3108690254360176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8599420650982641, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1267719114528263, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3252537388952592, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 4.730571477835651, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 4.730571477835651 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723040626.009438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723040626.009438, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6938984229635643, 0.3061015770364357 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon." }, { "id": 26942, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?", "short_title": "US unemployment more than 5% before 2025", "url_title": "US unemployment more than 5% before 2025", "slug": "us-unemployment-more-than-5-before-2025", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-05T09:31:32.656034Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T13:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.741724Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T13:23:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T23:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T13:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26942, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate exceed 5% before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-08-05T09:31:32.656034Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T13:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T13:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T13:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T23:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-16T23:46:58.314280Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of August 2024, bond markets are signaling increasing concerns about a potential US recession, driven by [weaker-than-expected economic data](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), particularly a disappointing July jobs report. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up in July, raising fears that the labor market, which had been a pillar of economic strength, may be starting to crack under the pressure of high interest rates.\n\nHistorically, the unemployment rate has been a key indicator of the health of the US economy and labor market. During recessions, the unemployment rate typically rises significantly as businesses lay off workers and hiring slows. For example, during the brief but severe recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8% in April 2020 before gradually declining as the economy recovered.\nAs of July 2024, the US unemployment rate stands at [4.3%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). \n\nThis question asks whether the unemployment rate will exceed 5% before 2025, a threshold that would signal a significant deterioration in labor market conditions and likely coincide with a broader economic downturn.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as \"Yes\" if the US unemployment rate, as reported by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm) is greater than 5% for any month from August 2024 to December 2024 inclusive.\n\nThe question will resolve as \"No\" if the unemployment rate remains at or below 5% for every month during this period.", "fine_print": "The relevant unemployment rate is the U-3 rate, which is the official unemployment rate reported by the BLS and measures the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.\n\nThe BLS releases unemployment data for each month on the first Friday of the following month. The question will resolve based on the first reported numbers and will not be affected by any subsequent revisions.\n\nIf the BLS changes its methodology for calculating the unemployment rate during the period in question, the question will resolve based on the new methodology, as long as the BLS provides sufficient data to determine whether the 5% threshold has been breached.", "post_id": 26942, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735696134.281814, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735696134.281814, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007013137417684932 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.795443886625841, 0.9988842722637199, 0.017197143016031723, 0.13357075254608086, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 0.06275008396943872, 0.13240104426112295, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 87.78551421649915, "peer_score": 7.252570230357163, "coverage": 0.9986532606519115, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9986532606519115, "spot_peer_score": 6.773947868419844, "spot_baseline_score": 60.97549621724435, "baseline_archived_score": 87.78551421649915, "peer_archived_score": 7.252570230357163, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.773947868419844, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 60.97549621724435 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287769.399209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287769.399209, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9967914257542472, 0.003208574245752783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of August 2024, bond markets are signaling increasing concerns about a potential US recession, driven by [weaker-than-expected economic data](https://www.bls.gov/charts/employment-situation/civilian-unemployment-rate.htm), particularly a disappointing July jobs report. The unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked up in July, raising fears that the labor market, which had been a pillar of economic strength, may be starting to crack under the pressure of high interest rates.\n\nHistorically, the unemployment rate has been a key indicator of the health of the US economy and labor market. During recessions, the unemployment rate typically rises significantly as businesses lay off workers and hiring slows. For example, during the brief but severe recession caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the unemployment rate spiked to 14.8% in April 2020 before gradually declining as the economy recovered.\nAs of July 2024, the US unemployment rate stands at [4.3%](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE). \n\nThis question asks whether the unemployment rate will exceed 5% before 2025, a threshold that would signal a significant deterioration in labor market conditions and likely coincide with a broader economic downturn." }, { "id": 26938, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will VP candidates debate in 2024?", "url_title": "Will VP candidates debate in 2024?", "slug": "will-vp-candidates-debate-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-04T00:59:28.056757Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26938, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-04T00:59:28.056757Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.\n\nIf no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "- A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.\n\n- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.\n\n- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.\nPre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\n- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.\n\n- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.\n\n- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as \"No\".\n\n- The debate must begin before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.", "post_id": 26938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727710680.066637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727710680.066637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007617713143976272 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.11019852606703, 2.9847177297606504, 0.07778355023611885, 0.02477462356272051, 0.057349318656425376, 0.7170467425459032, 0.0, 0.004923633528566627, 0.0, 0.0014768010611456352, 0.04943559162018285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029190912586403465, 0.010765824978387104, 0.0064168853673331454, 0.0, 0.028219506887676774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004491483950858434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.898250119390333e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000206485291802362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002451332791050539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038990521616727745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010374925633987093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002883225212909778, 0.00014135745183244355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.017949372969042e-05, 0.0, 0.0009540356145073528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05036677154187939 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 49.010398925671446, "coverage": 0.9999922239068628, "baseline_score": 82.52993893312127, "spot_peer_score": 37.32088473198445, "peer_archived_score": 49.010398925671446, "baseline_archived_score": 82.52993893312127, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.32088473198445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727710680.125393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727710680.125393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 669, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick." } ] }
