Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2720
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2740", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2700", "results": [ { "id": 22149, "title": "Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Powerball Won Before April 15, 2024?", "url_title": "Powerball Won Before April 15, 2024?", "slug": "powerball-won-before-april-15-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:17:21.527197Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T22:17:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.205916Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T22:17:31.747207Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T22:17:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22149, "title": "Will the Powerball jackpot be won before April 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:17:21.527197Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T22:17:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T17:15:18Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T17:15:18Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-13T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T06:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Powerball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball) is a US lottery operated by the [Multi-State Lottery Association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-State_Lottery_Association). Drawings are held [every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday](https://ialottery.com/Pages/Games/DrawingTimes.aspx). The [last time the jackpot was won](https://www.powerball.net/winners) was on January 1, 2024, and since then the jackpot has grown to a value of approximately $1.3 billion, the [fourth largest](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/lottery/2024/04/05/powerball-drawing-lottery-jackpot/73214381007/) Powerball jackpot in history and the [eighth largest](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/04/1242720091/powerball-jackpot-no-winner) US lottery jackpot in history.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after April 5, 2024, and before April 15, 2024, credible sources report that there was at least one winning ticket drawn in the Powerball jackpot.", "fine_print": "The winner must be for the \"[Grand Prize](https://www.powerball.com/powerball-prize-chart)\".", "post_id": 22149, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712492133.628222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712492133.628222, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.16000000000000003, 0.84 ], "means": [ 0.6989818160127742 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29345347581623216, 0.19496837784713386, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9111019806310228, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14834439140905845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3253517430168777 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.333703458915937, "coverage": 0.16021741197979775, "baseline_score": 0.18408310999016378, "spot_peer_score": 26.08412688803279, "peer_archived_score": 5.333703458915937, "baseline_archived_score": 0.18408310999016378, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.08412688803279 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712471290.689746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712471290.689746, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7077007661674459, 0.2922992338325541 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Powerball](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Powerball) is a US lottery operated by the [Multi-State Lottery Association](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-State_Lottery_Association). Drawings are held [every Monday, Wednesday, and Saturday](https://ialottery.com/Pages/Games/DrawingTimes.aspx). The [last time the jackpot was won](https://www.powerball.net/winners) was on January 1, 2024, and since then the jackpot has grown to a value of approximately $1.3 billion, the [fourth largest](https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/lottery/2024/04/05/powerball-drawing-lottery-jackpot/73214381007/) Powerball jackpot in history and the [eighth largest](https://www.npr.org/2024/04/04/1242720091/powerball-jackpot-no-winner) US lottery jackpot in history.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*" }, { "id": 22148, "title": "Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?", "short_title": "Caitlin Clark wins Most Outstanding Player?", "url_title": "Caitlin Clark wins Most Outstanding Player?", "slug": "caitlin-clark-wins-most-outstanding-player", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:08:03.031695Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.113646Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22148, "title": "Will Caitlin Clark be named the Most Outstanding Player in the 2024 NCAA Division I women's basketball tournament?", "created_at": "2024-04-05T20:08:03.031695Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T20:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T00:58:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T00:58:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-07T21:28:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-07T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "During the 2023-2024 season, Iowa senior Caitlin Clark became the [top scorer in college basketball history](https://bigten.org/news/2024/3/3/womens-basketball-caitlin-clark-becomes-the-ncaas-all-time-leading-scorer.aspx#:~:text=%E2%80%93%20Iowa%20senior%20Caitlin%20Clark%20scored,left%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.).\n\nThe award for Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA tournament is awarded following the conclusion of the championship game, based on a vote from media members. Typically the winning player is a member of the championship team, but not always. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player):\n\n> Ten men and one woman have won the award despite not winning the championship. The last man to do so was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983 and Dawn Staley was the only woman to do so when she won the award in 1991.\n\nClark and the Iowa Hawkeyes [face UConn](https://www.ncaa.com/game/6284828) in the Final Four.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if [Caitlin Clark](https://www.espn.com/womens-college-basketball/player/_/id/4433403/caitlin-clark) is named the NCAA Division I women's tournament [Most Outstanding Player](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player) at the conclusion of the [2024 championship game](https://www.ncaa.com/womens-di-championship?mml=1&cid=ncaa_mml_nav_women).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22148, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712508867.863897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712508867.863897, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.98 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.020000000000000018, 0.98 ], "means": [ 0.8623617154349799 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5128863128011775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3958428814631259, 0.007369969155267514, 0.19512018820526095, 0.03598851855808508, 0.42855776383303873, 0.7337861142726865, 0.7852188658668618, 0.0, 0.7377835219454945, 4.908997426109249 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -10.314406231632969, "coverage": 0.9996137666368108, "baseline_score": -354.3666215236335, "spot_peer_score": 81.9848261697624, "peer_archived_score": -10.314406231632969, "baseline_archived_score": -354.3666215236335, "spot_peer_archived_score": 81.9848261697624 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712508867.888916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712508867.888916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06757003242093429, 0.9324299675790657 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 59, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "During the 2023-2024 season, Iowa senior Caitlin Clark became the [top scorer in college basketball history](https://bigten.org/news/2024/3/3/womens-basketball-caitlin-clark-becomes-the-ncaas-all-time-leading-scorer.aspx#:~:text=%E2%80%93%20Iowa%20senior%20Caitlin%20Clark%20scored,left%20in%20the%20second%20quarter.).\n\nThe award for Most Outstanding Player in the NCAA tournament is awarded following the conclusion of the championship game, based on a vote from media members. Typically the winning player is a member of the championship team, but not always. According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NCAA_basketball_tournament_Most_Outstanding_Player):\n\n> Ten men and one woman have won the award despite not winning the championship. The last man to do so was Akeem Olajuwon in 1983 and Dawn Staley was the only woman to do so when she won the award in 1991.\n\nClark and the Iowa Hawkeyes [face UConn](https://www.ncaa.com/game/6284828) in the Final Four.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*" }, { "id": 22146, "title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?", "short_title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse a Democrat in 2024?", "url_title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse a Democrat in 2024?", "slug": "will-mitt-romney-endorse-a-democrat-in-2024", "author_id": 114115, "author_username": "Charles", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-05T06:53:22.404270Z", "published_at": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.453690Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:32:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22146, "title": "Will Mitt Romney endorse the Democratic party nominee for US President in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-05T06:53:22.404270Z", "open_time": "2024-04-11T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-14T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-14T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T12:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-11T12:33:20.727015Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/mitt-romney-joe-biden-knocks-donald-trump/71876893007/) of explicitly endorsing an alternative. Will he change this, and endorse the Democratic nominee?", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves positively if 3 high quality national or international news sources (e.g. Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, New York Times, Washington Post, or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions)) report that Mitt Romney has publicly endorsed the Democratic nominee for President in 2024, prior to the election taking place.\n\nReports which describe Romney as \"publicly endorsing\" the Democratic nominee or similar should suffice, or reports which include quotes from Romney saying unambiguously that he intends to vote for the Democratic nominee.\n\nReports that he has told people privately that he will vote for the Democratic nominee should not count for the purpose of this question.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730364574.94338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0698638856 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730364574.94338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.0698638856 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.041578357864683654 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.1062133968041494, 1.5865825018538697, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 1.3578455606019701, 0.17692120631776415, 1.178544441962909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4754349552989057, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022778484283569433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.59880010621127, "peer_score": 20.507709252842684, "coverage": 0.9996711079275367, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996711079275367, "spot_peer_score": 32.00436087926784, "baseline_archived_score": 91.59880010621127, "peer_archived_score": 20.507709252842684, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.00436087926784 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287339.348838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287339.348838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9917646411799923, 0.008235358820007662 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US Republican Senator Mitt Romney has [ruled out](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/02/29/mitt-romney-vote-trump-biden/72787644007/) voting for the presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election, but has to date [stopped short](https://eu.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/11/mitt-romney-joe-biden-knocks-donald-trump/71876893007/) of explicitly endorsing an alternative. Will he change this, and endorse the Democratic nominee?" }, { "id": 22142, "title": "Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?", "short_title": "Intuitive Machines' lander working in 2024", "url_title": "Intuitive Machines' lander working in 2024", "slug": "intuitive-machines-lander-working-in-2024", "author_id": 119188, "author_username": "exmateriae", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-04T18:45:35.823247Z", "published_at": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.025121Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T23:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22142, "title": "Will Intuitive Machines land with fully working payloads on the Moon in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-04-04T18:45:35.823247Z", "open_time": "2024-05-18T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-05-21T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T23:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T13:40:41.996387Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.\n\nOne of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. A new mission is planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.\n\nAmong the payloads are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, an Intuitive Machines lander has perfectly landed and the payload is delivered in a fully working state on the Moon. Otherwise resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "For the purpose of this question, a perfect landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact, in its intended position, able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.\n\nThe lander must land before January 1, 2025, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before January 30, 2025.\n\nEvery one of the payloads must be able to work as intended for at least 24 hours. A payload that would not fulfill this previous criteria will not be considered if at least another party than Intuitive Machines takes responsibility for this failure. If Intuitive Machines recognizes any responsibility in this failure, the landing will not count for positive resolution.", "post_id": 22142, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735313334.237623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735313334.237623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.044652178354142404 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.303154948486498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09153308219070486, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -6.062064368627286, "peer_score": 50.64244922870938, "coverage": 0.999118965024473, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999118965024473, "spot_peer_score": 155.67576546051865, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "baseline_archived_score": -6.062064368627286, "peer_archived_score": 50.64244922870938, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 155.67576546051865, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289753.865855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289753.865855, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8880517739886169, 0.1119482260113831 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After two slow decades at the beginning of the 21st century, the rate of missions to the Moon [has significantly accelerated](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#21st_century_uncrewed_soft_landings_and_attempts). Two missions have already landed on the Moon in 2024 and many more are planned.\n\nOne of them was Intuitive Machines' Nova-C lander, which was the first made by a commercial company to land on the Moon, during the IM-1 mission. An obstacle was however encountered and the satellite stumbled on its side. A new mission is planned for this year with the same lander class that plans to deliver NASA payloads.\n\nAmong the payloads are a [mass spectrometer, a rover and a drill](https://www.astronomy.com/space-exploration/the-im-2-moon-mission-will-carry-a-blend-of-science-and-art/) that will search the lunar South Pole for water ice." }, { "id": 22140, "title": "Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?", "short_title": "2024 electoral college majority?", "url_title": "2024 electoral college majority?", "slug": "2024-electoral-college-majority", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-04-04T02:46:57.658256Z", "published_at": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.312720Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 42, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22140, "title": "Will anyone win an Electoral College majority in the 2024 US presidential election?", "created_at": "2024-04-04T02:46:57.658256Z", "open_time": "2024-04-10T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-14T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-18T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:20:15.214844Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) (electors) who then cast votes for the President and Vice President.\n\nThe electors [are scheduled to meet](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) on December 17, 2024. If no majority is reached the President will be determined by Congress.\n\nSince the inception of the United States, only [2 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin) have resulted in no electoral college majority.\n\nSee also: \n\n- The Hill: [What if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes?](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4502438-what-if-no-candidate-wins-270-electoral-votes/)\n\n- 270ToWin: [Electoral College Ties](https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if any single candidate receives an absolute majority of the Electoral College votes cast in the 2024 United States presidential election. If no one receives an absolute majority of Electoral College votes cast, this question will resolve **No**.\n\nThis question will resolve on the date the electors cast their votes.", "fine_print": "Specifically, according to the rules as of April 2024, if any candidate receives 270 Electoral College votes or greater, not including a tie where two candidates receive 269 votes, this question will resolve yes.\n\nFaithless electors will be counted as they actually vote, not based on their states results.\n\nIf the number of votes in the Electoral College changes before they cast their votes, this question will still resolve based on an absolute majority, not 270.\n\nIf the 2024 United States presidential election is not held or if the electoral college does not cast their votes by February 1, 2025 this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nIf there is a dispute about who the electors are, or what their votes are this question will resolve based on how congress counts the votes, if congress does not count the votes by February 1, 2025 this question will resolve as **ambiguous**.", "post_id": 22140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730689965.034409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730689965.034409, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9869759452987529 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052917423781649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6199497203478274, 0.06984569336479438, 0.9244383481296953, 2.1419803364427494, 7.505688104130086 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.03640611672199, "peer_score": 2.0705429599649117, "coverage": 0.9999988332271063, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999988332271063, "spot_peer_score": 21.25390004397392, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 98.03640611672199, "peer_archived_score": 2.0705429599649117, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.25390004397392, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288136.481735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288136.481735, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.017282360154867837, 0.9827176398451322 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [Electoral College](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College) (electors) who then cast votes for the President and Vice President.\n\nThe electors [are scheduled to meet](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) on December 17, 2024. If no majority is reached the President will be determined by Congress.\n\nSince the inception of the United States, only [2 elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_by_Electoral_College_margin) have resulted in no electoral college majority.\n\nSee also: \n\n- The Hill: [What if no candidate wins 270 electoral votes?](https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/4502438-what-if-no-candidate-wins-270-electoral-votes/)\n\n- 270ToWin: [Electoral College Ties](https://www.270towin.com/content/electoral-college-ties/)" }, { "id": 22116, "title": "Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030?", "short_title": "Non US and UK university in top5 QS by 2030", "url_title": "Non US and UK university in top5 QS by 2030", "slug": "non-us-and-uk-university-in-top5-qs-by-2030", "author_id": 172441, "author_username": "claptar", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-30T12:29:26.328289Z", "published_at": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.174351Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22116, "title": "Will there be a university outside the US and UK in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-30T12:29:26.328289Z", "open_time": "2024-04-06T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-09T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-09T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T05:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**QS World University Rankings:**\n\nThe QS World University Rankings is a prominent ranking system for universities globally.\nIt considers various factors like academic reputation, employer reputation, faculty-student ratio, research citations, and international student population.\nCurrently (as of March 2024), US and UK universities dominate the top positions, with strong contenders from Switzerland (specifically ETH Zurich) and Singapore entering the top 10 in [world rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). \n\nThese established institutions benefit from:\n\n- Deeply entrenched reputations: Universities like Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard have centuries of prestige and a global network of successful alumni.\n- Strong research output: These institutions consistently produce high-quality research, which is a key factor in the QS rankings.\n- Attractive environments: They offer top-notch facilities, competitive faculty salaries, and vibrant student life, attracting top talent from around the world.\n\n**The Rise of Asian Powerhouses:**\n\nHowever, the landscape is shifting. Several universities in Asia, particularly in China, Singapore, and Japan, have been steadily climbing the QS rankings in recent years. This rise can be attributed to several factors:\n\n- Government investment: Many Asian governments are pouring significant resources into their higher education systems, aiming to create world-class universities.\n- Research focus: There's a growing emphasis on research output in these universities, leading to an increase in high-impact publications.\n- Internationalization efforts: Asian universities are actively recruiting international faculty and students, fostering a more diverse and globally connected learning environment.\n\n**Examples of Rising Stars:**\n\n- China: Tsinghua University, Peking University, and several others have seen significant improvements in the QS rankings, challenging the traditional dominance.\n- Singapore: National University of Singapore consistently ranks among the top universities in Asia and is a strong contender for the global top 10.\n- Switzerland: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich) is a prime example of a European non-UK institution that has consistently ranked high in the QS rankings, often in the top 10, due to its exceptional research and focus on science and technology.\n\n**Looking Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities**\n\nWhile the US and UK still hold a significant advantage, predicting the future is challenging due to several uncertainties:\n\n- Government policies: Future government funding priorities in different countries could significantly impact the trajectory of universities.\n- Evolving ranking methodologies: The QS rankings, and potentially other ranking systems, might incorporate new factors that could benefit certain universities over others.\n- Geopolitical landscape: Global political and economic trends could influence the attractiveness of different regions for international students and faculty.\n- Overall, there's a growing possibility of a university outside the US and UK reaching the top 5 of the QS rankings by 2030. The rise of Asian powerhouses, coupled with the continued strength of institutions like ETH Zurich, potential shifts in ranking methodologies and global trends, makes this an exciting time for higher education.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if an accredited college or university that is located outside the United Kingdom or United States is ranked in the top 5 of the QS World University Rankings by Quacquarelli Symonds (QS) for top global universities before calendar date January 1, 2030. The resolution source is available [here](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). \n\nThis question resolves as No if, upon release of the QS World University Rankings rankings top global universities for 2030, this specified event has not occurred.", "fine_print": "QS World University Rankings are generally published in June of the preceding year. For example, the rankings for 2024 were published on June 27, 2023. Therefore the rankings for 2030 are expected to be published in June 2029. If the specified event, an accredited college or university located outside the UK or US ranked in the top 5, has not occurred with those rankings, then this will resolve as No.\n\nIf the QS World University Rankings for the year 2030 have not been released before January 1, 2030, this question will automatically resolve as No, based on the latest rankings available on that date.\n\nThis question will be Annulled if no additional QS World University Rankings are published following the launch of this question or if QS discontinues its publication without a direct successor or equivalent ranking system being established.", "post_id": 22116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749215258.670271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749215258.670271, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.34 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6599999999999999, 0.34 ], "means": [ 0.4739597842381506 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6129581021846703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 1.2198004484698002, 0.0, 0.13444868060126633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.565253950550936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7845533632614763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288679.549067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288679.549067, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8036796461939744, 0.19632035380602567 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**QS World University Rankings:**\n\nThe QS World University Rankings is a prominent ranking system for universities globally.\nIt considers various factors like academic reputation, employer reputation, faculty-student ratio, research citations, and international student population.\nCurrently (as of March 2024), US and UK universities dominate the top positions, with strong contenders from Switzerland (specifically ETH Zurich) and Singapore entering the top 10 in [world rankings](https://www.topuniversities.com/world-university-rankings). \n\nThese established institutions benefit from:\n\n- Deeply entrenched reputations: Universities like Oxford, Cambridge, and Harvard have centuries of prestige and a global network of successful alumni.\n- Strong research output: These institutions consistently produce high-quality research, which is a key factor in the QS rankings.\n- Attractive environments: They offer top-notch facilities, competitive faculty salaries, and vibrant student life, attracting top talent from around the world.\n\n**The Rise of Asian Powerhouses:**\n\nHowever, the landscape is shifting. Several universities in Asia, particularly in China, Singapore, and Japan, have been steadily climbing the QS rankings in recent years. This rise can be attributed to several factors:\n\n- Government investment: Many Asian governments are pouring significant resources into their higher education systems, aiming to create world-class universities.\n- Research focus: There's a growing emphasis on research output in these universities, leading to an increase in high-impact publications.\n- Internationalization efforts: Asian universities are actively recruiting international faculty and students, fostering a more diverse and globally connected learning environment.\n\n**Examples of Rising Stars:**\n\n- China: Tsinghua University, Peking University, and several others have seen significant improvements in the QS rankings, challenging the traditional dominance.\n- Singapore: National University of Singapore consistently ranks among the top universities in Asia and is a strong contender for the global top 10.\n- Switzerland: ETH Zurich (Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich) is a prime example of a European non-UK institution that has consistently ranked high in the QS rankings, often in the top 10, due to its exceptional research and focus on science and technology.\n\n**Looking Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities**\n\nWhile the US and UK still hold a significant advantage, predicting the future is challenging due to several uncertainties:\n\n- Government policies: Future government funding priorities in different countries could significantly impact the trajectory of universities.\n- Evolving ranking methodologies: The QS rankings, and potentially other ranking systems, might incorporate new factors that could benefit certain universities over others.\n- Geopolitical landscape: Global political and economic trends could influence the attractiveness of different regions for international students and faculty.\n- Overall, there's a growing possibility of a university outside the US and UK reaching the top 5 of the QS rankings by 2030. The rise of Asian powerhouses, coupled with the continued strength of institutions like ETH Zurich, potential shifts in ranking methodologies and global trends, makes this an exciting time for higher education." }, { "id": 22070, "title": "Will the U.S. FDA approve induced pluripotent stem cells for treatment of any medical condition before 2031?", "short_title": "induced pluripotent stem cells before 2031", "url_title": "induced pluripotent stem cells before 2031", "slug": "induced-pluripotent-stem-cells-before-2031", "author_id": 170434, "author_username": "kusainova7531", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-28T19:25:27.574469Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.463014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22070, "title": "Will the U.S. FDA approve induced pluripotent stem cells for treatment of any medical condition before 2031?", "created_at": "2024-03-28T19:25:27.574469Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-08T13:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-08T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T20:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs) are a type of stem cell that holds great promise in the field of regenerative medicine and research. \n\nHere's a breakdown of what makes iPSCs significant:\n\n1. **Pluripotency**: iPSCs are similar to embryonic stem cells (ESCs) in that they have the potential to differentiate into almost any cell type in the body. This pluripotency makes them valuable for studying development, disease modeling, and potentially for therapeutic applications.\n\n2. **Reprogramming**: The process of creating iPSCs involves reprogramming adult cells, typically skin cells or blood cells, back into a pluripotent state. This reprogramming is usually achieved by introducing a set of specific transcription factors into the adult cells. These factors effectively 'reset' the cell's identity, allowing it to regain pluripotency.\n\n3. **Ethical Considerations**: One of the significant advantages of iPSCs over embryonic stem cells is that they do not require the destruction of embryos. This aspect addresses many of the ethical concerns associated with ESC research.\n\n4. **Personalized Medicine**: iPSCs have the potential to revolutionize personalized medicine. Since they can be generated from a patient's own cells, there is less risk of immune rejection when these cells are used for transplantation or other therapeutic purposes. Additionally, iPSCs derived from patients with specific diseases can be used to model those diseases in the laboratory, facilitating drug discovery and the development of personalized treatments.\n\n5. **Challenges**: Despite their tremendous potential, iPSCs still face several challenges. These include the risk of tumorigenesis (formation of tumors) when iPSCs are used in transplantation therapies, the efficiency of the reprogramming process, and the need for further understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying pluripotency and differentiation.\n\n\nOverall, induced pluripotent stem cells represent a significant advancement in stem cell biology, offering new opportunities for both research and clinical applications in regenerative medicine.\n\nHere are a few articles that will give you a more comprehensive look at the issue: \n\n1. Ohnuki, M., & Takahashi, K. (2015). Present and future challenges of induced pluripotent stem cells. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 370(1680), 20140367. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0367\n\n2. Aboul‐Soud, M. a. M., Alzahrani, A. J., & Mahmoud, A. F. (2021). Induced Pluripotent stem cells (IPSCs)—Roles in regenerative therapies, disease modelling and drug screening. Cells, 10(9), 2319. https://doi.org/10.3390/cells10092319\n\n3. Yamanaka, S. (2012). Induced pluripotent stem cells: past, present, and future. Cell Stem Cell, 10(6), 678–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stem.2012.05.005", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before 2031 the FDA approves the technology for using induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) in human medicine (for example: tissue regeneration in transplantation, selection of personalized drug therapy). Any form of approval would count, including but not limited to conditional approval, emergency use authorization, and biologics license application. \n\nInduced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) are a type of pluripotent stem cell that can be generated directly from a somatic cell.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22070, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742626130.172802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.243 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742626130.172802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.243 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.23403193310081358 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7136871632468946, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288023.223767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288023.223767, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.920315956996509, 0.07968404300349097 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 25, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Induced Pluripotent Stem Cells (iPSCs) are a type of stem cell that holds great promise in the field of regenerative medicine and research. \n\nHere's a breakdown of what makes iPSCs significant:\n\n1. **Pluripotency**: iPSCs are similar to embryonic stem cells (ESCs) in that they have the potential to differentiate into almost any cell type in the body. This pluripotency makes them valuable for studying development, disease modeling, and potentially for therapeutic applications.\n\n2. **Reprogramming**: The process of creating iPSCs involves reprogramming adult cells, typically skin cells or blood cells, back into a pluripotent state. This reprogramming is usually achieved by introducing a set of specific transcription factors into the adult cells. These factors effectively 'reset' the cell's identity, allowing it to regain pluripotency.\n\n3. **Ethical Considerations**: One of the significant advantages of iPSCs over embryonic stem cells is that they do not require the destruction of embryos. This aspect addresses many of the ethical concerns associated with ESC research.\n\n4. **Personalized Medicine**: iPSCs have the potential to revolutionize personalized medicine. Since they can be generated from a patient's own cells, there is less risk of immune rejection when these cells are used for transplantation or other therapeutic purposes. Additionally, iPSCs derived from patients with specific diseases can be used to model those diseases in the laboratory, facilitating drug discovery and the development of personalized treatments.\n\n5. **Challenges**: Despite their tremendous potential, iPSCs still face several challenges. These include the risk of tumorigenesis (formation of tumors) when iPSCs are used in transplantation therapies, the efficiency of the reprogramming process, and the need for further understanding of the molecular mechanisms underlying pluripotency and differentiation.\n\n\nOverall, induced pluripotent stem cells represent a significant advancement in stem cell biology, offering new opportunities for both research and clinical applications in regenerative medicine.\n\nHere are a few articles that will give you a more comprehensive look at the issue: \n\n1. Ohnuki, M., & Takahashi, K. (2015). Present and future challenges of induced pluripotent stem cells. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 370(1680), 20140367. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2014.0367\n\n2. Aboul‐Soud, M. a. M., Alzahrani, A. J., & Mahmoud, A. F. (2021). Induced Pluripotent stem cells (IPSCs)—Roles in regenerative therapies, disease modelling and drug screening. Cells, 10(9), 2319. https://doi.org/10.3390/cells10092319\n\n3. Yamanaka, S. (2012). Induced pluripotent stem cells: past, present, and future. Cell Stem Cell, 10(6), 678–684. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.stem.2012.05.005" }, { "id": 22050, "title": "Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?", "short_title": "Tokyo Blossoms Full Bloom by April 5, 2024?", "url_title": "Tokyo Blossoms Full Bloom by April 5, 2024?", "slug": "tokyo-blossoms-full-bloom-by-april-5-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-27T14:17:05.643187Z", "published_at": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.249643Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 56, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3069, "type": "question_series", "name": "Bridgewater Forecasting Contest 2024 Warmup", "slug": "bridgewater-warmup-2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/tournament-cover_2.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-27T12:00:06Z", "close_date": "2024-04-16T04:00:06Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-18T21:55:05.313591Z", "edited_at": "2024-03-27T14:26:40.553565Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22050, "title": "Will the cherry blossoms reach full bloom in Tokyo before April 5, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-27T14:17:05.643187Z", "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-28T10:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-28T10:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-04T19:44:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Cherry blossoms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_blossom) are often considered the unofficial national flower of Japan, and the spring blooming of the cherry blossoms is a [significant tourist attraction](https://www.japan.travel/en/au/experience/cherry-blossoms/). [According to Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/date-of-the-peak-cherry-tree-blossom-in-kyoto), the peak blooming period of the cherry blossoms in Kyoto has been shifting earlier in recent years as climate change produces warmer spring temperatures.\n\nThe [Japan Meteorological Corporation](https://n-kishou.com/corp/english/company/) (JMC) publishes cherry blossom forecasts as well as a \"[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)\", tracking the progress of the cherry blossoms toward reaching full bloom in a number of Japanese cities.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 5, 2024, Japan Meteorological Corporation (JMC) reports that cherry blossoms have reached 100% full bloom in Tokyo. Resolution will be determined according to whether JMC's \"[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)\" shows that Tokyo has reached 100% full bloom in its most recent update (likely on April 4, 2024).", "fine_print": "If as of April 5, 2024, the latest date on the \"Flowering Meter\" is still March 28, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 22050, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712175668.853244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712175668.853244, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9450938421800819 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06124341082421378, 0.39618411090454325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023714766002371646, 0.0, 0.3669337095617011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.29966330176672196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009514982201565289, 0.02704288263026733, 0.9234835805233972, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3784282562821966, 8.936729345292022 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 5.1769402600823975, "coverage": 0.9640112465830586, "baseline_score": 91.8578833054275, "spot_peer_score": 3.4002364557028577, "peer_archived_score": 5.1769402600823975, "baseline_archived_score": 91.8578833054275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.4002364557028577 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712175668.884035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712175668.884035, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01617505166871014, 0.9838249483312899 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 81, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Cherry blossoms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cherry_blossom) are often considered the unofficial national flower of Japan, and the spring blooming of the cherry blossoms is a [significant tourist attraction](https://www.japan.travel/en/au/experience/cherry-blossoms/). [According to Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/date-of-the-peak-cherry-tree-blossom-in-kyoto), the peak blooming period of the cherry blossoms in Kyoto has been shifting earlier in recent years as climate change produces warmer spring temperatures.\n\nThe [Japan Meteorological Corporation](https://n-kishou.com/corp/english/company/) (JMC) publishes cherry blossom forecasts as well as a \"[Flowering Meter](https://n-kishou.com/corp/news-contents/sakura/?lang=en#section03)\", tracking the progress of the cherry blossoms toward reaching full bloom in a number of Japanese cities.\n\n*This is a warmup question for the Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest.* ***Visit the [contest landing page](https://www.metaculus.com/bridgewater/) to register for the competition, which begins on April 16th.*** *Participation is limited to individuals based in the United States. Warmup questions do not count toward contest rankings.*" }, { "id": 22046, "title": "On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?", "short_title": "Cruise Ride-Hailing January 2026", "url_title": "Cruise Ride-Hailing January 2026", "slug": "cruise-ride-hailing-january-2026", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-27T05:54:34.900820Z", "published_at": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:02:42.536373Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 65, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3055, "type": "question_series", "name": "Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/uai-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-29T04:37:24Z", "close_date": "2036-09-01T04:37:24Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:37:24.745127Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T00:09:59.718445Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3055, "type": "question_series", "name": "Understanding AI With Timothy B. Lee", "slug": null, "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/uai-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-29T04:37:24Z", "close_date": "2036-09-01T04:37:24Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:37:24.745127Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T00:09:59.718445Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 22046, "title": "On January 1, 2026, will Cruise operate a rider-only ride-hailing service anywhere in the United States?", "created_at": "2024-03-27T05:54:34.900820Z", "open_time": "2024-03-28T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-31T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-02T07:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve \"Yes\" if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicate that rider-only ride-hailing trips operated by Cruise are available to the general public anywhere in the United States on January 1, 2026.", "fine_print": "- \"Rider-only\" means one in which the only humans in the car are passengers and no human operates the vehicle for the duration of the trip.\n- \"Available to the general public\" means that any member of the public is eligible to use the service without first joining a waitlist or having been granted use of the service as part of a limited testing or early access phase.\n- \"United States\" means the 50 states plus the District of Columbia.", "post_id": 22046, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757271416.408104, "end_time": 1761857968.557637, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757271416.408104, "end_time": 1761857968.557637, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011286711584000155 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.767876490234629, 1.3373447889619143, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07557908443735797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26325921892490284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289289.043839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289289.043839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8984202706429518, 0.10157972935704822 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 150, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question is part of the [Understanding AI Series with Timothy B Lee](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3055/) and was inspired by [this post](https://www.understandingai.org/p/the-coming-waymo-monopoly).\n\nCruise, the autonomous vehicle unit of General Motors, has faced significant setbacks in its efforts to deploy self-driving vehicles. In late October 2023, Cruise [suspended](https://apnews.com/article/cruise-robotaxi-suspends-operations-gm-73f27ef959afe1e201e61f0fd31802d5) all driverless operations nationwide after California regulators ordered the company to remove its driverless cars from state roads, citing safety concerns and accusing Cruise of misrepresenting the technology's capabilities.\n\nThe California Department of Motor Vehicles [stated](https://www.dmv.ca.gov/portal/news-and-media/dmv-statement-on-cruise-llc-suspension/) that Cruise's driverless vehicles posed \"an unreasonable risk to public safety\" and that the company had provided misleading information about the safety of its self-driving system. This move by regulators came after a series of incidents involving Cruise vehicles, including crashes caused by the vehicles' abrupt braking.\n\nAdditionally, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) [is investigating](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/17/cruise-under-nhtsa-probe-into-autonomous-driving-pedestrian-injuries.html) multiple reports of Cruise self-driving cars engaging in inappropriately hard braking, resulting in collisions. The agency is seeking more information from Cruise regarding five new crash reports involving such incidents.\n\nCruise's suspension of driverless operations across the U.S. represents a major setback for the company and General Motors' ambitions in the autonomous vehicle space. The company has [stated](https://x.com/Cruise/status/1717707807460393022?s=20) that it would take time to examine its processes and rebuild public trust." }, { "id": 22037, "title": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "short_title": "India First 10 to Embryo Select for IQ?", "url_title": "India First 10 to Embryo Select for IQ?", "slug": "india-first-10-to-embryo-select-for-iq", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 118874, "username": "stanulamstan" } ], "created_at": "2024-03-26T17:41:47.899827Z", "published_at": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.870414Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 22037, "title": "Will India be one of the first ten countries to embryo select >10% of its newborns for intelligence?", "created_at": "2024-03-26T17:41:47.899827Z", "open_time": "2024-03-27T17:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-30T17:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-30T17:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2300-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nIn a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Indians were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than any other population surveyed, and in fact were the only population surveyed where a majority of the population agreed with this view. Embryo selection through IVF has been [used in India as a fertility treatment.](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/millions-of-couples-in-india-to-benefit-from-a-i-driven-embryo-selection/story-Wp2roVv99QYJTrppprjoGK.html) Much like in China, India [bans embryo selection for gender](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis#India) out of fear that there would be disproportionate selection for men. Nonetheless, embryo selection against diseases is legal and practiced. India boasts a [thriving technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology_in_India). Though it is still a developing country, [its economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) is growing quickly.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if India is one of the first ten countries with over a million people to have more than 10% of its newborns developed from embryos selected for polygenic scores for intelligence, according to credible reports. If no country has >10% of its newborns selected for intelligence by 2300-01-01 it resolves as ambiguous.\n\nMoreover, for the question to resolve positively, the particular procedure used for embryo selection must, in expectation, result in an increase of at least 1/5 standard deviations in IQ (i.e. 3 IQ points), according to credible evidence", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 22037, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1726824996.123459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.152 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1788242012 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1726824996.123459, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.152 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1788242012 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.1579243905517326 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6928808849301284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 0.0, 1.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289822.993709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289822.993709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9331480733333637, 0.06685192666663628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Embryo selection is a potential emerging technology and is the subject of [several previous Metaculus questions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&search=Embryo%20selection) and a [notebook](https://www.metaculus.com/notebooks/9247/polygenic-selection-of-embryos/).\n\nIn a [2020 Pew survey](https://www.pewresearch.org/science/2020/12/10/biotechnology-research-viewed-with-caution-globally-but-most-support-gene-editing-for-babies-to-treat-disease/), Indians were more open to \"changing a baby's characteristics\" to improve intelligence than any other population surveyed, and in fact were the only population surveyed where a majority of the population agreed with this view. Embryo selection through IVF has been [used in India as a fertility treatment.](https://www.hindustantimes.com/brand-post/millions-of-couples-in-india-to-benefit-from-a-i-driven-embryo-selection/story-Wp2roVv99QYJTrppprjoGK.html) Much like in China, India [bans embryo selection for gender](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preimplantation_genetic_diagnosis#India) out of fear that there would be disproportionate selection for men. Nonetheless, embryo selection against diseases is legal and practiced. India boasts a [thriving technology sector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_technology_in_India). Though it is still a developing country, [its economy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_India) is growing quickly." }, { "id": 21994, "title": "Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?", "short_title": "Maximum speed achieved by the spacecraft 2075", "url_title": "Maximum speed achieved by the spacecraft 2075", "slug": "maximum-speed-achieved-by-the-spacecraft-2075", "author_id": 171511, "author_username": "NaumovVD", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-23T17:00:45.069933Z", "published_at": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.858385Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21994, "title": "Will the maximum speed of a human spacecraft reach at least 66,000 km/s (0.22 times the speed of light) by 2075?", "created_at": "2024-03-23T17:00:45.069933Z", "open_time": "2024-04-12T15:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-15T15:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-15T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2075-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2075-12-30T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In his article [Solar One: A Proposal for The First Crewed \nInterstellar Spacecraft](https://arxiv.org/format/2007.11474), Alberto Caballero describes the concept and design of a new type of spacecraft capable of reaching an average of 22% the speed of light. Can engineers make a spacecraft by 2075 that can achieve this goal?\n\nAccording to Caballero, a speed of 20% of light would be enough to reach the supposed habitable planets within just 20 years of flight, potentially unlocking a new era of interstellar exploration.\n\nThe fastest spacecraft as of now, the [Parker Solar Probe](https://www.space.com/41447-parker-solar-probe-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html), has reached speeds of about 192 km/s, which is approximately 0.064% of the speed of light. \n\nThe idea behind fast ships is to use the pressure of light, which travels unhindered through space. Light pressure can be generated by a powerful laser located on the Earth's surface, which will shine a beam of 100 GW [already achievable](https://laserstars.org/history/lasers.html) for sufficient time and with great focusing accuracy, contingent upon improvements in technologies. \n\nSuch spacecrafts can be sent to achieve all required information about surface of planets and the state of interstellar space. After reaching the destination it could be transformed to a [Fresnel lens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_imager) to focus the signal and then send information back to Earth.\n\nThis question is important because it explores the feasibility of these advancements in spacecraft speed, especially if these advancements can enable speeds ≥ 0.22c by 2075.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2076, a human-made spacecraft achieves a speed of at least 66,000 km/s or 0.22c (i.e., 0.22 times the speed of light) using the Sun's center of mass as its reference frame, as reported by NASA, the European Space Agency or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). \n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if no credible sources have confirmed the achievement of this speed by the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21994, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756815161.330281, "end_time": 1781896205.991, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756815161.330281, "end_time": 1781896205.991, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.0135010872 ], "centers": [ 0.13 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.87, 0.13 ], "means": [ 0.21635893891183736 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3678794411714424, 1.4280675658449307, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1905981616602133, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772330576101931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21213970039234192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07533680859673718, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581411659280016 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290303.169236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290303.169236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9645690172380759, 0.03543098276192408 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In his article [Solar One: A Proposal for The First Crewed \nInterstellar Spacecraft](https://arxiv.org/format/2007.11474), Alberto Caballero describes the concept and design of a new type of spacecraft capable of reaching an average of 22% the speed of light. Can engineers make a spacecraft by 2075 that can achieve this goal?\n\nAccording to Caballero, a speed of 20% of light would be enough to reach the supposed habitable planets within just 20 years of flight, potentially unlocking a new era of interstellar exploration.\n\nThe fastest spacecraft as of now, the [Parker Solar Probe](https://www.space.com/41447-parker-solar-probe-fastest-spacecraft-ever.html), has reached speeds of about 192 km/s, which is approximately 0.064% of the speed of light. \n\nThe idea behind fast ships is to use the pressure of light, which travels unhindered through space. Light pressure can be generated by a powerful laser located on the Earth's surface, which will shine a beam of 100 GW [already achievable](https://laserstars.org/history/lasers.html) for sufficient time and with great focusing accuracy, contingent upon improvements in technologies. \n\nSuch spacecrafts can be sent to achieve all required information about surface of planets and the state of interstellar space. After reaching the destination it could be transformed to a [Fresnel lens](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fresnel_imager) to focus the signal and then send information back to Earth.\n\nThis question is important because it explores the feasibility of these advancements in spacecraft speed, especially if these advancements can enable speeds ≥ 0.22c by 2075." }, { "id": 21972, "title": "Will a non-Disney-nominated board member be elected to Disney's board at the April 3, 2024, shareholder meeting?", "short_title": "Non-Disney Board Member Elected April 2024?", "url_title": "Non-Disney Board Member Elected April 2024?", "slug": "non-disney-board-member-elected-april-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-20T20:33:24.561446Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.375265Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": 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Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company) is facing a [proxy fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_fight), as two investment firms are seeking board seats at the upcoming [April 3, 2024 shareholder meeting](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/disney-date-2024-shareholder-meeting-rejects-board-nominees-1235894803/). [Trian Partners](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trian_Partners) has put forward two nominees for [board seats](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/george-lucas-disney-iger-proxy-fight-board-1235945607/) and [Blackwells Capital](https://www.blackwellscap.com/) has put forward three, with each investment firm expressing dissatisfaction with Disney's performance and leadership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that at least one non-Disney -nominated board member has been elected to Disney's board as a result of the April 3, 2024, shareholder vote.", "fine_print": "A non-Disney-nominated board member is one that was not one of the twelve board members nominated by Disney.", "post_id": 21972, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712149053.786236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712149053.786236, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.1537925719213671 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7439166678314957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9333198310231191, 1.3201492916737325, 0.2153378168622927, 1.1665477315029942, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4643883072377526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19725545985062867, 0.4160350980997906, 0.0, 0.0833857067693185, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9591481063586516, 0.30199423264781133, 0.3393435081288082, 0.0, 0.04255302797849524, 0.6416840602112744, 0.2780067488129698, 0.0, 0.1648228012086056, 0.0, 0.7628466000134717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06032709531608127, 0.6829217005582897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018996793087590582, 0.0, 0.029058259890870124, 0.04795610324820406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0376241220922931, 0.013841141009878904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06737143295391024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033136279379270196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038950098074189703, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009712334743922024, 0.001873194738889857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024261337011583416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005091871219889384 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 27.0789763840203, "coverage": 0.9997537727097021, "baseline_score": 41.263596129408874, "spot_peer_score": 35.62080431554262, "peer_archived_score": 27.0789763840203, "baseline_archived_score": 41.263596129408874, "spot_peer_archived_score": 35.62080431554262 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712149053.820124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712149053.820124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 53, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9833810441858857, 0.01661895581411428 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 161, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Walt Disney Company](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Walt_Disney_Company) is facing a [proxy fight](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proxy_fight), as two investment firms are seeking board seats at the upcoming [April 3, 2024 shareholder meeting](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/disney-date-2024-shareholder-meeting-rejects-board-nominees-1235894803/). [Trian Partners](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trian_Partners) has put forward two nominees for [board seats](https://variety.com/2024/biz/news/george-lucas-disney-iger-proxy-fight-board-1235945607/) and [Blackwells Capital](https://www.blackwellscap.com/) has put forward three, with each investment firm expressing dissatisfaction with Disney's performance and leadership." }, { "id": 21971, "title": "Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?", "short_title": "NY Seize Trump Properties", "url_title": "NY Seize Trump Properties", "slug": "ny-seize-trump-properties", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-20T19:30:24.267497Z", "published_at": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.470722Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T15:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21971, "title": "Before November 5, 2024, will the State of New York seize any of Donald Trump's real estate holdings to satisfy the judgement in the NY civil fraud case?", "created_at": "2024-03-20T19:30:24.267497Z", "open_time": "2024-04-02T13:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-05T13:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-05T13:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-13T15:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-13T15:33:36.124460Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following a [$464 million civil fraud judgment](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-fraud-trial/?id=103642561) against Donald Trump, the former President has [sought to appeal](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-appeals-355-million-ruling-144615752.html) the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of such an appeal first requires that he post a bond in the full amount of the judgement. Mr. Trump has reportedly [faced significant challenges](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-appeal-bond-fraud-net-worth-b2514521.html) in securing such a bond, allegedly facing rejection from \"about 30\" surety companies. \n\nRegarding the possibility that Trump will fail to post the bond or otherwise satisfy the judgement, New York Attorney General Letitia James [has said](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/19/1239524037/heres-what-happens-if-trump-cant-pay-his-454-million-bond) the following:\n>If he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, then we will seek judgment enforcement mechanisms in court, and we will ask the judge to seize his assets.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if, before November 5, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the State of New York has seized one or more of Donald Trump's real estate assets in order to satisfy the judgment in Trump's [New York civil fraud case](https://ag.ny.gov/press-release/2024/attorney-general-james-wins-landmark-victory-case-against-donald-trump). \n\nIf no such actions have been reported by the specified date, the question will resolve negatively.", "fine_print": "- Reports indicating that the State of New York has merely begun or advanced the process of seizing Donald Trump's real estate holdings will not trigger a positive resolution of this question. For a positive resolution, such reports must indicate that a seizure has been completed, such that Mr. Trump no longer has legal ownership of, or control over, the asset(s). \n- In the event that at the time credible reports confirming a seizure, such actions by the State of New York are simultaneously the subject of legal dispute, this question still resolves positively upon reporting either event has already occurred, irrespective of whether they are subsequently annulled, reversed, etc.\n- In the case of ambiguous or conflicting reporting by or between credible sources, Metaculus admins may use their reasonable judgement to resolve the question.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"seize\" and \"seizure\" refer to the legal process of taking control of property by the State to satisfy a debt or judgment (including, but not limited to, through a court-approved Order to Seize).", "post_id": 21971, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730541020.400599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730541020.400599, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.014808013734866078 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.852041353826241, 4.4464012511782816, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06273305504766838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06785272307040267, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10635996762051808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 91.88244254333297, "peer_score": 7.895013471714693, "coverage": 0.9988200238432582, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9988200238432582, "spot_peer_score": 3.31010308793923, "baseline_archived_score": 91.88244254333297, "peer_archived_score": 7.895013471714693, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.31010308793923 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288643.617389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288643.617389, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following a [$464 million civil fraud judgment](https://abcnews.go.com/US/live-updates/trump-fraud-trial/?id=103642561) against Donald Trump, the former President has [sought to appeal](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-appeals-355-million-ruling-144615752.html) the outcome of the trial. However, his pursuit of such an appeal first requires that he post a bond in the full amount of the judgement. Mr. Trump has reportedly [faced significant challenges](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-appeal-bond-fraud-net-worth-b2514521.html) in securing such a bond, allegedly facing rejection from \"about 30\" surety companies. \n\nRegarding the possibility that Trump will fail to post the bond or otherwise satisfy the judgement, New York Attorney General Letitia James [has said](https://www.npr.org/2024/03/19/1239524037/heres-what-happens-if-trump-cant-pay-his-454-million-bond) the following:\n>If he does not have funds to pay off the judgment, then we will seek judgment enforcement mechanisms in court, and we will ask the judge to seize his assets." }, { "id": 21965, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?", "short_title": "Global Warming Pause 2015 - 2029", "url_title": "Global Warming Pause 2015 - 2029", "slug": "global-warming-pause-2015-2029", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-20T05:36:16.097853Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T03:00:01.010235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:21.069590Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21965, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the global temperature will not rise more than 0.05C between 2015 and 2029?", "created_at": "2024-03-20T05:36:16.097853Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:46:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:46:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html) and [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate.html) on June 9-10, 2014 at 3:1 odds favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes: \n\n>The Economist confirms that global warming has paused over the last 15 years:\n\n---\n\n>Between 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of\n0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s.\nMeanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push\ntemperatures up) rose uninterruptedly. This pause in warming has raised\ndoubts in the public mind about climate change.\n\n---\n\n>The rest of the piece discusses explanations for the pause:\n\n---\n\n>A convincing explanation of the pause therefore matters both to a proper\nunderstanding of the climate and to the credibility of climate\nscience–and papers published over the past few weeks do their best to\nprovide one. Indeed, they do almost too good a job. If all were correct,\nthe pause would now be explained twice over.\n\n---\n\n>I’m not qualified to evaluate any of this research. As a matter of general epistemic policy, though, I put very little stock in after-the-fact explanations. And that seems to be all the latest research is. \n\n[...]\n\n>To repeat, I’m not qualified to debate these experts. But their reaction seems fishy to me, and I am more than qualified to bet against the consensus on the basis of that perceived fishiness. Of course, since the experts are claiming knowledge, and I’m claiming ignorance, the odds should be in my favor. Last week on Twitter, I publicly offered to bet at 2:1 odds that the global warming pause will continue for another 15 years. \n\n >Indeed, he offers better terms than I requested: 3:1 odds, and I win if (according to according to ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series) the average global annual land + ocean temperature increase between 2014 and 2028 inclusive is less than or equal to +.05 C.\n\n>1. Since we already have some data from 2014, the bet should run from 2015 to 2029.\n\n>2. Yoram proposed Wheat and Chessboard stakes, but I prefer to simply bet my nominal $333.33 against his nominal $1000.\n\n> 3. If ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series stops publishing data during this period, we call the bet off. Alternately, Yoram can propose back-up data sources, and we only call the bet off if they all stop publishing data.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: the average (2015-2029) - average (2000-2014) <=0.05C. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per NOAA Global climate time series data (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/climate-at-a-glance/global/time-series)", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21965, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473190.803303, "end_time": 1759236644.019245, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473190.803303, "end_time": 1759236644.019245, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.026304913327381184 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.894732422109506, 2.743368999533595, 0.5184314689133672, 0.07128274001026091, 0.0, 0.20407762169596821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7778257887671691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006737946999085467, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10043023050065579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.021542612258663517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04384841732294667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12233152344487716 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289291.569798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289291.569798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.996374789093572, 0.003625210906427934 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 95, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate_1.html) and [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2014/06/bauman_climate.html) on June 9-10, 2014 at 3:1 odds favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes: \n\n>The Economist confirms that global warming has paused over the last 15 years:\n\n---\n\n>Between 1998 and 2013, the Earth’s surface temperature rose at a rate of\n0.04°C a decade, far slower than the 0.18°C increase in the 1990s.\nMeanwhile, emissions of carbon dioxide (which would be expected to push\ntemperatures up) rose uninterruptedly. This pause in warming has raised\ndoubts in the public mind about climate change.\n\n---\n\n>The rest of the piece discusses explanations for the pause:\n\n---\n\n>A convincing explanation of the pause therefore matters both to a proper\nunderstanding of the climate and to the credibility of climate\nscience–and papers published over the past few weeks do their best to\nprovide one. Indeed, they do almost too good a job. If all were correct,\nthe pause would now be explained twice over.\n\n---\n\n>I’m not qualified to evaluate any of this research. As a matter of general epistemic policy, though, I put very little stock in after-the-fact explanations. And that seems to be all the latest research is. \n\n[...]\n\n>To repeat, I’m not qualified to debate these experts. But their reaction seems fishy to me, and I am more than qualified to bet against the consensus on the basis of that perceived fishiness. Of course, since the experts are claiming knowledge, and I’m claiming ignorance, the odds should be in my favor. Last week on Twitter, I publicly offered to bet at 2:1 odds that the global warming pause will continue for another 15 years. \n\n >Indeed, he offers better terms than I requested: 3:1 odds, and I win if (according to according to ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series) the average global annual land + ocean temperature increase between 2014 and 2028 inclusive is less than or equal to +.05 C.\n\n>1. Since we already have some data from 2014, the bet should run from 2015 to 2029.\n\n>2. Yoram proposed Wheat and Chessboard stakes, but I prefer to simply bet my nominal $333.33 against his nominal $1000.\n\n> 3. If ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series stops publishing data during this period, we call the bet off. Alternately, Yoram can propose back-up data sources, and we only call the bet off if they all stop publishing data." }, { "id": 21930, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?", "short_title": "No civil war in non-ex-communist Euro country", "url_title": "No civil war in non-ex-communist Euro country", "slug": "no-civil-war-in-non-ex-communist-euro-country", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:24:25.325315Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.234287Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:43.404605Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21930, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that there will be no civil war in a European country (that wasn't communist in 1988) by 2046?", "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:24:25.325315Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2046-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2045-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2045-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will.html) with an update [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will_1.html).**\n\n**NOTE: This relevant wager was offered September 24, 2015 at 10:1 odds not favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Last weekend, I got into a Twitter argument with a fellow who claims that Europe’s immigration problem will “inevitably” lead to civil war:\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan As a human nature pessimist, I see ethno-cultural balkanization and civil war as inevitable on current trends.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My reaction, as usual, was to propose a bet. And as usual, the person claiming “inevitability” refused to offer me favorable odds. Instead, he asked me to offer him favorable odds!\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan Civil war in multiple countries, within 30 years, tens of thousands killed. 10/1 would be nice.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My bets are often of the form, “You’re confident, I’m ignorant, so give me favorable odds and I’ll bet you.” In this instance, however, I don’t plead ignorance. I am confident that civil war won’t happen in Western Europe for any reason whatsoever. So here’s the bet I’m offering:\n\n>You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $7x [later updated to 10x]. Germany counts, Turkey doesn’t. Any front page story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall St. Journal stating that a literal civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation ends the bet in my opponents’ favor.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: no European country (that was not communist in 1988) will have a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities by December 31, 2045. \n\nIf Caplan does not publicly announce the outcome of the bet, this question resolves per any story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall Street Journal stating that a civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750625116.251664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750625116.251664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.84 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.88 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.16000000000000003, 0.84 ], "means": [ 0.8251625210589101 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02358838295555427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.520136487115066, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16106653414689315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1882041136162727, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6661380492378888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8869227080167973, 0.0, 2.8039872937335315, 0.01744285986675472, 0.6450872469073657, 0.0, 0.8693280352332947, 0.5529427460258962, 0.5389790046430796, 0.7926387191363733, 1.7423887437510204, 0.0, 0.35413546013199604, 0.21134819307803016, 0.0, 0.08934312118698887, 0.20188538587623814, 0.30404899148901643, 0.32356993027434205, 0.17659841324481915, 0.4817346416537838, 0.37738805438960565 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288830.10821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288830.10821, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.14420693357574466, 0.8557930664242553 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 80, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will.html) with an update [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2015/09/the_center_will_1.html).**\n\n**NOTE: This relevant wager was offered September 24, 2015 at 10:1 odds not favoring Caplan.**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Last weekend, I got into a Twitter argument with a fellow who claims that Europe’s immigration problem will “inevitably” lead to civil war:\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan As a human nature pessimist, I see ethno-cultural balkanization and civil war as inevitable on current trends.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My reaction, as usual, was to propose a bet. And as usual, the person claiming “inevitability” refused to offer me favorable odds. Instead, he asked me to offer him favorable odds!\n\n---\n\n> *@bryan_caplan Civil war in multiple countries, within 30 years, tens of thousands killed. 10/1 would be nice.*\n\n>— *Enoch Was Right (@TomStead1) September 18, 2015*\n\n---\n\n>My bets are often of the form, “You’re confident, I’m ignorant, so give me favorable odds and I’ll bet you.” In this instance, however, I don’t plead ignorance. I am confident that civil war won’t happen in Western Europe for any reason whatsoever. So here’s the bet I’m offering:\n\n>You pay me $x today. If any European country that was not communist in 1988 has a civil war leading to 10,000 or more fatalities between today and December 31, 2045, I will immediately pay you $7x [later updated to 10x]. Germany counts, Turkey doesn’t. Any front page story in The New York Times, Washington Post, or Wall St. Journal stating that a literal civil war in one of the specified nations has led to 10,000 or more fatalities in that nation ends the bet in my opponents’ favor." }, { "id": 21928, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?", "short_title": "Bryan Caplan GMU Mistreatment", "url_title": "Bryan Caplan GMU Mistreatment", "slug": "bryan-caplan-gmu-mistreatment", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:07:01.072359Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.689698Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:48.499194Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21928, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University through the end of 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:07:01.072359Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-02T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/persecution-bet/) and was made January 1, 2021.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I’ve already seen George Mason University badly mistreat non-conformist professors. Should I expect the same to happen to me? I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’m not greatly worried either. I’m definitely not going to self-censor to protect myself. Yet quite a few people tell me that I’m in grave danger. One of them, Todd Proebsting, a C.S. professor at the University of Arizona, has offered to bet me.\n\n>To be clear, Todd wishes me well. He does not want me to suffer mistreatment; he merely predicts it. Here are the terms on which we have agreed.\n\n>I bet Todd Proebsting $50 at even odds that I will NOT be \"clearly mistreated\" by George Mason University before January 1, 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet that he will not be mistreated by George Mason University before January 1, 2031.**\n\n---\n\nThis question resolves per public statements by Caplan.\n\nCaplan writes: \n>If there is a dispute, [economic historian] Phil Magness will have final authority to determine the winner of the bet.\n\n>Examples of “clear mistreatment” include but are not limited to:\n\n>1. Any public announcement by an agent of my university’s administration that my speech or writings are under investigation, or a subject of further inquiry.\n\n>2. Any GMU investigation or inquiry into my speech or writing. This could be done by administrators or an ad hoc committee or HR or whatever.\n\n>3. Any official disciplinary action due to my speech or writing, even if limited to a mere “warning”.\n\n>4. Cancellation of a public talk by me at GMU.\n\n>5. Any negative financial consequences explicitly justified by my speech or writings.\n\n>6. “Clear mistreatment” does NOT include any employee of GMU expressing disapproval of the content of my speech or writings, but DOES include any official personal or professional condemnation. So: Todd doesn’t win for “GMU strongly disagrees with what Prof. Caplan said about pickpockets,” but Todd does win for “GMU strongly condemns Prof. Caplan for saying that about pickpockets.”\n\nThe wager ends on January 1, 2031.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21928, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754805031.013477, "end_time": 1759033237.957626, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754805031.013477, "end_time": 1759033237.957626, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8004473413095766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.10635996762051808, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.36122463681838846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5078561153794712, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 2.554502109259904, 0.0, 0.6390484072978414, 0.0, 0.9883432990975922, 0.9049962539381591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4934676667213517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289208.315801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289208.315801, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3318875576916537, 0.6681124423083463 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/persecution-bet/) and was made January 1, 2021.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I’ve already seen George Mason University badly mistreat non-conformist professors. Should I expect the same to happen to me? I wouldn’t be surprised, but I’m not greatly worried either. I’m definitely not going to self-censor to protect myself. Yet quite a few people tell me that I’m in grave danger. One of them, Todd Proebsting, a C.S. professor at the University of Arizona, has offered to bet me.\n\n>To be clear, Todd wishes me well. He does not want me to suffer mistreatment; he merely predicts it. Here are the terms on which we have agreed.\n\n>I bet Todd Proebsting $50 at even odds that I will NOT be \"clearly mistreated\" by George Mason University before January 1, 2031." }, { "id": 21927, "title": "Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?", "short_title": "Supreme Court Not Packed", "url_title": "Supreme Court Not Packed", "slug": "supreme-court-not-packed", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:02:19.114031Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.569339Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:47:56.835893Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-04T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21927, "title": "Will Aidan Caplan win his bet that the Supreme Court will not be packed as of July 4, 2028?", "created_at": "2024-03-16T01:02:19.114031Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-07-05T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-07-04T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-07-04T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/court-packing-bet/) and was made on July 10, 2018 with 7-1 odds favoring Ilya Somin.**\n\nBryan Caplan writes:\n\n>Court-packing is back. Or is it? Perhaps cheap talk is merely taking on yet another guise. After an engaging argument on this topic, law professor Ilya Somin has hammered out the following bet with my son, Aidan Caplan. While most observers would take a Somin’s side on credentials alone, bear in mind that Aidan has earned 5’s on both the U.S. History and U.S. Government Advanced Placement tests. Though he just finished 9th-grade, the contest is not as unequal as it seems.\n\n>In any case, here are the terms of the bet – written by Ilya, and accepted by Aidan:\n\n---\n\n>To win, I bet, at 7-1 odds favoring me, that the Court will be packed within 10 years. I put up $10 against his $70. I win if by July 4, 2028, the Supreme Court is legally authorized to have 10 or more justices. Otherwise Aidan wins. I agree he wins if it has gone up from 9 to 10 or more between now and 2028, but it has been cut back to 9 by 2028.\n\n---\n\n>Somin adds: “And I actually hope there will NOT be any court-packing in the next 10 years.”", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager (or in this one case Aidan Caplan's) where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Bryan Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: the US Supreme Court was not \"packed\" (had more than nine justices) as of July 4th, 2028.\n\nIf Bryan Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reputable sources reporting on the resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21927, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757587174.259908, "end_time": 1759486469.075, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757587174.259908, "end_time": 1759486469.075, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9233906318398978 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024961621845100364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05190371288004473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 1.0941226401309816, 0.0, 0.44873527567562277, 0.21693921071189126, 0.03777143320256801, 2.03961922503822, 1.219201662046707, 1.2617580992699662, 0.10635996762051808, 0.08591921520153545 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288658.299803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288658.299803, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.07736152130414131, 0.9226384786958587 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/court-packing-bet/) and was made on July 10, 2018 with 7-1 odds favoring Ilya Somin.**\n\nBryan Caplan writes:\n\n>Court-packing is back. Or is it? Perhaps cheap talk is merely taking on yet another guise. After an engaging argument on this topic, law professor Ilya Somin has hammered out the following bet with my son, Aidan Caplan. While most observers would take a Somin’s side on credentials alone, bear in mind that Aidan has earned 5’s on both the U.S. History and U.S. Government Advanced Placement tests. Though he just finished 9th-grade, the contest is not as unequal as it seems.\n\n>In any case, here are the terms of the bet – written by Ilya, and accepted by Aidan:\n\n---\n\n>To win, I bet, at 7-1 odds favoring me, that the Court will be packed within 10 years. I put up $10 against his $70. I win if by July 4, 2028, the Supreme Court is legally authorized to have 10 or more justices. Otherwise Aidan wins. I agree he wins if it has gone up from 9 to 10 or more between now and 2028, but it has been cut back to 9 by 2028.\n\n---\n\n>Somin adds: “And I actually hope there will NOT be any court-packing in the next 10 years.”" }, { "id": 21922, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the college enrollment rate will be greater than 26.6% in 2025?", "short_title": "College Enrollment Rate For 2025", "url_title": "College Enrollment Rate For 2025", "slug": "college-enrollment-rate-for-2025", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T23:03:17.211678Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.360221Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:05.790699Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21922, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that the college enrollment rate will be greater than 26.6% in 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T23:03:17.211678Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/) and was made September 12th, 2018 at even odds. This wager was an update on a [previous post](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/10/stably_wasteful.html).**\n\nCaplan writes:\n>Samuel Knoche, a student at Fordham University, has taken me up on an old bet:\n\n---\n\n>I bet at even odds that 10 years from now, the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges will be no more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.\n\n---\n\nHowever, we’ve slightly modified the earlier terms.\n> Since the most recent data is for 2015, we are betting that when the 2025 data comes out, Samuel [Knoche] wins if the fraction of 18-to-24-years-olds enrolled in four-year colleges has fallen more than 10%. I win if it’s fallen less. Since the current rate is 29.9%, he wins if the rate is 26.6% or less. If the data series is discontinued, we call off the bet and I refund his money with 3% annual interest.\n\n---\n\nNOTE: This question is a resolution-reversed version of a previously opened Metaculus question: [Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/)", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: the enrollment rate of 18- to 24-year-olds in a 4-year college or university in the [NCES 2025 data](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d23/tables/dt23_302.60.asp) is greater than 26.6%. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per [NCES data](https://nces.ed.gov/programs/digest/d16/tables/dt16_302.60.asp). If the data series is discontinued, the question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21922, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758284140.022962, "end_time": 1762777978.333713, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758284140.022962, "end_time": 1762777978.333713, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.991 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9820887317544212 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2955053200404105, 0.14816789822404922, 0.05261861201859691, 0.6095953157643048, 5.0651057750955495 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290001.184832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290001.184832, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1600006440830556, 0.8399993559169444 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 105, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/education-the-betting-continues/) and was made September 12th, 2018 at even odds. This wager was an update on a [previous post](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2011/10/stably_wasteful.html).**\n\nCaplan writes:\n>Samuel Knoche, a student at Fordham University, has taken me up on an old bet:\n\n---\n\n>I bet at even odds that 10 years from now, the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in traditional four-year colleges will be no more than 10% (not 10 percentage-points!) lower than it is today.\n\n---\n\nHowever, we’ve slightly modified the earlier terms.\n> Since the most recent data is for 2015, we are betting that when the 2025 data comes out, Samuel [Knoche] wins if the fraction of 18-to-24-years-olds enrolled in four-year colleges has fallen more than 10%. I win if it’s fallen less. Since the current rate is 29.9%, he wins if the rate is 26.6% or less. If the data series is discontinued, we call off the bet and I refund his money with 3% annual interest.\n\n---\n\nNOTE: This question is a resolution-reversed version of a previously opened Metaculus question: [Will the fraction of American 18-24 year-olds enrolled in colleges in 2025 be ≥10% less than were enrolled in 2015?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1433/will-the-fraction-of-american-18-24-year-olds-enrolled-in-colleges-in-2025-be-10-less-than-were-enrolled-in-2015/)" }, { "id": 21918, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?", "short_title": "2032-2033 India fertility rate", "url_title": "2032-2033 India fertility rate", "slug": "2032-2033-india-fertility-rate", "author_id": 164919, "author_username": "srid", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T22:15:26.656546Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:59:19.592790Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:11.211767Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21918, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that India's average fertility rate for 2032 & 2033 will be < 2.0?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T22:15:26.656546Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2034-01-02T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-01-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/08/indian_fertilit.html) and was made August 30, 2012 with economist John Nye, with odds of 2:1 favoring Caplan.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I think that bad economic policy, not “overpopulation,” is India’s main economic problem. But whatever you think about the social effects of population growth, it’s clear that Indian fertility is sharply declining. I expect this rapid decline to continue, but my colleague John Nye isn’t convinced. As a result, we’ve agreed to the following bet:\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0,\n\n>John owes me $200.\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ≥2.0,\n\n>I owe John $100.\n\n>We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.\n\n>Hopefully I’ll lose!", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: India's (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per the average of World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.\n\n[World Bank data is here](https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN). \n\n[UN data is here](https://pdp.unfpa.org/?_ga=2.189084207.545536236.1712342354-2014740225.1712342354&country=356&data_id=dataSource_8-6%3A106%2CdataSource_8-1%3A2%2B10%2B11&page=Explore-Indicators).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473149.004013, "end_time": 1769828260.18527, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473149.004013, "end_time": 1769828260.18527, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9413709459285357 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15879807646568847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00938587886210713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03860646978477285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029758452499286443, 0.07290041733962924, 0.3386586773479101, 0.203811246746112, 0.0, 1.8176331988731462, 0.30611848541644116, 0.0, 0.12458556497060898, 0.920569728684799, 1.4117549505091214, 0.0, 1.2590112901225892, 2.3713329634370766, 1.612293012447235 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287151.230823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287151.230823, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.08037659905601102, 0.919623400943989 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.econlib.org/archives/2012/08/indian_fertilit.html) and was made August 30, 2012 with economist John Nye, with odds of 2:1 favoring Caplan.**\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>I think that bad economic policy, not “overpopulation,” is India’s main economic problem. But whatever you think about the social effects of population growth, it’s clear that Indian fertility is sharply declining. I expect this rapid decline to continue, but my colleague John Nye isn’t convinced. As a result, we’ve agreed to the following bet:\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2<2.0,\n\n>John owes me $200.\n\n>If India’s (Total Fertility Rate in 2032 + Total Fertility Rate in 2033)/2 ≥2.0,\n\n>I owe John $100.\n\n>We’ve agreed to use the average of the World Bank and United Nations estimates of TFR.\n\n>Hopefully I’ll lose!" }, { "id": 21915, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?", "short_title": "Russia Invading NATO member by 2040", "url_title": "Russia Invading NATO member by 2040", "slug": "russia-invading-nato-member-by-2040", "author_id": 164919, "author_username": "srid", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:26:43.083837Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:59:09.015902Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:16.386576Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, 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"https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21915, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Russia will not invade a NATO member by June 10, 2040?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:26:43.083837Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2040-06-10T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2040-06-09T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2040-06-09T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original offer to wager appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nato_bethtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) on June 10, 2015 at even odds.**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:\n\n>“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not\nuse military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia,” the\nPew Research Center said it found in its survey, which is based on\ninterviews in 10 nations.\n\n>There is more here, and so every great moderation must come to an end…\n\n>This is also of note:\n\n>According to the study, residents of most NATO countries still believe that the United States would come to their defense.\n\n>Meanwhile:\n\n>Eighty-eight percent of Russians said they had confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing on international affairs…\n\n>Solve for the equilibrium, as they like to say. It is much easier to\nstabilize a conservative power (e.g., the USSR) than a revisionist\npower (Putin’s Russia).\n\n>In contrast, I think (a) a Russian attack on a NATO member is highly unlikely, and (b) would provoke a massive military response by NATO. Even a low-level, unofficial war in Ukraine has cost Russia dearly, and it looks to me like it will slowly become another “frozen conflict” in the Russian sphere of influence. Attacking a NATO member would not be suicide for Putin, but still much too risky for his taste.\n\n>[...] I give even odds that Russia attacks zero NATO members for the next 25 years. [...] I’m inclined to say that if the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and Washington Post all have front-page stories saying that 1000 or more Russian troops have entered a specific NATO member, I lose.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Russia does NOT attack a NATO member before June 10, 2040. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per the New York Times, Wall Street Journal, and Washington Post all featuring front-page stories indicating that 1000 or more Russian troops entered a specific NATO member.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21915, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757473138.524631, "end_time": 1762232082.080982, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757473138.524631, "end_time": 1762232082.080982, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7523130152202734 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08915094763644647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39962148407489445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.75473385485351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3106625186139859, 0.0, 1.2974497770561602, 1.0207943910654005, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.01542797475028349, 0.021542612258663517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0620405475365282, 0.16466410993500383, 0.19892345174351658, 0.0, 0.1494220410952148, 0.003750798840222434, 0.0, 1.8329722115539095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6929825785475864, 0.0, 0.338266843588547, 0.919998953512843, 0.0, 0.8871344616289244, 0.3970120141383842, 0.0, 0.03355904935421398, 0.0, 0.15561189635968958, 0.2979352784310742, 0.0, 0.00515416995245163, 0.3100891820920758 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289827.551422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289827.551422, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.19688221864865363, 0.8031177813513464 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original offer to wager appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nato_bethtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) on June 10, 2015 at even odds.**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Tyler heavily insinuates that Russia will invade a NATO member in the foreseeable future:\n\n>“At least half of Germans, French and Italians say their country should not\nuse military force to defend a NATO ally if attacked by Russia,” the\nPew Research Center said it found in its survey, which is based on\ninterviews in 10 nations.\n\n>There is more here, and so every great moderation must come to an end…\n\n>This is also of note:\n\n>According to the study, residents of most NATO countries still believe that the United States would come to their defense.\n\n>Meanwhile:\n\n>Eighty-eight percent of Russians said they had confidence in Mr. Putin to do the right thing on international affairs…\n\n>Solve for the equilibrium, as they like to say. It is much easier to\nstabilize a conservative power (e.g., the USSR) than a revisionist\npower (Putin’s Russia).\n\n>In contrast, I think (a) a Russian attack on a NATO member is highly unlikely, and (b) would provoke a massive military response by NATO. Even a low-level, unofficial war in Ukraine has cost Russia dearly, and it looks to me like it will slowly become another “frozen conflict” in the Russian sphere of influence. Attacking a NATO member would not be suicide for Putin, but still much too risky for his taste.\n\n>[...] I give even odds that Russia attacks zero NATO members for the next 25 years. [...] I’m inclined to say that if the New York Times, Wall St. Journal, and Washington Post all have front-page stories saying that 1000 or more Russian troops have entered a specific NATO member, I lose." } ] }
