Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2720
{ "count": 6354, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2740", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2700", "results": [ { "id": 26938, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Will VP candidates debate in 2024?", "url_title": "Will VP candidates debate in 2024?", "slug": "will-vp-candidates-debate-in-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-08-04T00:59:28.056757Z", "published_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.043164Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26938, "title": "Will a US Vice Presidential debate be held before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-04T00:59:28.056757Z", "open_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T14:31:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-10-01T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-01T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, there is at least one formal, live debate held between the 2024 Republican and Democratic nominees for Vice President of the United States.\n\nIf no such debate is held before that date, this question closes as **No**.", "fine_print": "- A qualifying debate must be a live, formal event specifically billed as a vice presidential debate between the Democratic and Republican nominees for vice president in the 2024 US election.\n\n- Both the Democratic and Republican vice presidential nominees must participate in the debate, responding to each other and moderator questions in real time. The presence of third-party candidates does not disqualify the debate as long as both major party nominees are present.\n\n- The debate may be conducted in person or virtually, as long as both candidates are participating live and simultaneously.\nPre-recorded video statements or responses do not count as participation in a live debate.\n\n- The debate does not need to complete its scheduled duration; it is sufficient for the debate to start with both major party vice presidential nominees participating live.\n\n- Alternative events, such as separate town hall interviews or forums where candidates do not directly engage with each other, will not count as a debate for the purposes of this question.\n\n- If either the Democratic or Republican vice presidential nominee is absent from the debate, regardless of the reason or the presence of third-party candidates, the question will resolve as \"No\".\n\n- The debate must begin before October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM EDT.", "post_id": 26938, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727710680.066637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727710680.066637, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007617713143976272 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.11019852606703, 2.9847177297606504, 0.07778355023611885, 0.02477462356272051, 0.057349318656425376, 0.7170467425459032, 0.0, 0.004923633528566627, 0.0, 0.0014768010611456352, 0.04943559162018285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029190912586403465, 0.010765824978387104, 0.0064168853673331454, 0.0, 0.028219506887676774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004491483950858434, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.898250119390333e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008493257047191687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000206485291802362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002451332791050539, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038990521616727745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010374925633987093, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002883225212909778, 0.00014135745183244355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.017949372969042e-05, 0.0, 0.0009540356145073528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05036677154187939 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 49.010398925671446, "coverage": 0.9999922239068628, "baseline_score": 82.52993893312127, "spot_peer_score": 37.32088473198445, "peer_archived_score": 49.010398925671446, "baseline_archived_score": 82.52993893312127, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.32088473198445 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727710680.125393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727710680.125393, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 130, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 669, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) [originally planned](https://debates.org/2024/06/24/cpd-statement/index.html) to hold the vice presidential debate at Lafayette College, Easton, PA, on September 25, 2024. On June 24, 2024, the CPD officially [cancelled](https://debate.lafayette.edu/) all its planned debates, including the vice presidential debate, due to the the presumptive nominees of the Democratic and Republican parties agreeing instead to have debates hosted by TV news networks without the CPD's involvement.\n\nWhen she was the presumptive Democratic nominee for vice president, Kamala Harris [originally agreed](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/harris-accepts-cbs-news-vp-debate-offer-summer/story?id=110304207) to participate in a vice presidential debate hosted by CBS, which were to take place on either July 23 or August 13. However, now that she is the [official Democratic nominee](https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c4ng1my55vno) for president, that agreement no longer holds.\n\nAs of early August 2024, Donald Trump's campaign Harris's campaign were [at an impasse](https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/03/politics/kamala-harris-donald-trump-debate/index.html) about when or even if a presidential debate would take place, let alone a VP debate. Additionally, the Harris campaign was still [working on finalizing](https://www.nytimes.com/live/2024/08/01/us/trump-harris-election-news) its VP pick." }, { "id": 26920, "title": "If Israel does not invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024, will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-israel-does-not-invade-lebanon-before-october-1-2024-will-there-be-1000-or-more-deaths-due-to-armed-conflict-between-israel-and-hezbollah-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:21.122270Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.979253Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 65, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26920, "title": "If Israel does not invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024, will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:21.122270Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:10:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\n\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if (1) Israel does not invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024 as determined by this [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25846/israel-to-invade-lebanon/), and (2) after October 12, 2023 and before Oct 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah. This question will resolve as **No** if (1) Israel does not invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024 as determined by this [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25846/israel-to-invade-lebanon/), and (2) after October 12, 2023 and before Oct 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) do not report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah. If Israel invades Lebanon by October 1 then this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.", "post_id": 26920, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722954071.769078, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.387 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722954071.769078, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.387 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.613, 0.387 ], "means": [ 0.453463274689338 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5846608062937566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5442933680841893, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.118051316341382, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 1.3726450132892558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.24017638092154792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11940595090060753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20641857588933926, 0.27308960725456716, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6920861612997604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722954071.809021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722954071.809021, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5584677493686091, 0.4415322506313909 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 73, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\n\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 26919, "title": "If Israel invades Lebanon before October 1, 2024, will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "if-israel-invades-lebanon-before-october-1-2024-will-there-be-1000-or-more-deaths-due-to-armed-conflict-between-israel-and-hezbollah-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:20.976437Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.861584Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:09:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\n\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if (1) Israel invades Lebanon before October 1, 2024 as determined by this [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25846/israel-to-invade-lebanon/), and (2) after October 12, 2023 and before Oct 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah. This question will resolve as **No** if (1) Israel invades Lebanon before October 1, 2024 as determined by this [Metaculus question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/25846/israel-to-invade-lebanon/), and (2) after October 12, 2023 and before Oct 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) do not report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah. If Israel does not invade Lebanon by October 1 then this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. 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The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\n\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\n\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 26918, "title": "Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-1000-or-more-deaths-due-to-armed-conflict-between-israel-and-hezbollah-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:20.855867Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.457260Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T20:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\r\n\r\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\r\n\r\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before Oct 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\r\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\r\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\r\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\r\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.", "post_id": 26918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722954139.398529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6666666666666667 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722954139.398529, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6666666666666667 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.523625661342103 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8455368295694525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9242596332735813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12927435441879365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.264292164619111, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5165372157758483, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26496281908746716, 0.6939525952509218, 0.24311673443421403, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7092178315035476, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0326867241767685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722954139.434559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722954139.434559, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5935117035693679, 0.4064882964306321 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\r\n\r\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\r\n\r\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 26917, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-israel-invade-lebanon-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:20.471012Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.632856Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 68, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26917, "title": "Will Israel invade Lebanon before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:20.471012Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T21:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T21:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, after July 15, 2024, and before October 1, 2024, either the Government of Israel or any two [Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Permanent_members_of_the_United_Nations_Security_Council) announce or acknowledge that Israeli ground troops have entered Lebanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear that the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Israel and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Lebanon or the assent of the United Nations.\n\nThe announcements must describe events that take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and October 1, 2024.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Lebanese territory is determined by the 2000 Blue Line.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722953825.86626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722953825.86626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.48 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.35807079646594353 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 1.4890416113334348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.958866112860528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.8379487954001852, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 1.000327879011936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 1.194706417391029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 1.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722953825.898012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722953825.898012, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7874392388936458, 0.2125607611063542 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tensions between Israel and Hezbollah, a Lebanese militant group, have escalated dramatically. Recently, Hezbollah launched over [200 rockets](https://apnews.com/article/lebanon-hezbollah-israel-rocket-5358640d72d7bbbe59b1a0f21dc713ba) into Israel in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders by an Israeli strike. This attack represents one of the largest confrontations in the ongoing conflict along the Lebanon-Israel border, with significant military actions taken by both sides. Israel responded with strikes on various towns in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah's military structures.\n\nThe conflict, which intensified following the outbreak of war in Gaza, has displaced tens of thousands of people on both sides of the border and resulted in numerous casualties. Israel considers Hezbollah its most direct threat, estimating the group possesses an arsenal of 150,000 rockets and missiles, including precision-guided ones. The international community, including the U.S. and France, is actively working to prevent these skirmishes from escalating into an all-out war that could impact the broader region. Despite diplomatic efforts, Israeli officials have indicated that they might decide to go to war in Lebanon if a diplomatic solution cannot be achieved." }, { "id": 26916, "title": "Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kamala-harriss-net-favorability-rating-be-higher-than-8-as-reported-by-538-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-02T19:15:20.359682Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.275030Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-06T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:47:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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Party's nominee for the third consecutive presidential election.\n\nAs of July 30 2024, according to polling averages maintained by 538, Trump and Harris have strikingly similar net favorability ratings: [-8.7 in the case of Donald Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/), and [-8.5 in the case of Kamala Harris.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/) \n\nBiden, who dropped out of the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/)." }, { "id": 26915, "title": "Will Kamala Harris's net favorability rating be higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": 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the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Kamala Harris's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024. 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fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on October 1, 2024. 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July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presidency after incumbent President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the race, and former President [Donald Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump?useskin=vector), who has been adopted as the Republican Party's nominee for the third consecutive presidential election.\n\nAs of July 30 2024, according to polling averages maintained by 538, Trump and Harris have strikingly similar net favorability ratings: [-8.7 in the case of Donald Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/), and [-8.5 in the case of Kamala Harris.](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/kamala-harris/) \n\nBiden, who dropped out of the race amid [widespread concern that he was not cognitively fit](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/72-of-voters-say-biden-not-mentally-fit-to-serve-as-president-poll/3262503) to serve as president, has [a net favourability rating of -17.6](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/joe-biden/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if Donald Trump's net favorability is higher than -8 as reported by 538 on September 1, 2024. 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null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722953953.772953, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7232010278936222, 0.2767989721063778 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 30 2024, the [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) looks set to be a contest between incumbent Vice President [Kamala Harris](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kamala_Harris?useskin=vector), seeking election to the presidency after incumbent President Joe Biden decided to withdraw from the race, and former President [Donald 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 28, Venezuela held Presidential elections, but full results have not yet been published by the [National Electoral Council (CNE)](https://www.cne.gob.ve/) as of August 2. Hours after polling stations closed, the head of the CNE proclaimed the incumbent, Nicolás Maduro, the winner for a third term.\n\nThe opposition and the international community have pointed out irregularities. The CNE [asserted](https://mincyt.gob.ve/nicolas-maduro-gana-las-elecciones-presidenciales/), with 20% of ballots left to count, that Maduro's 7-point lead over the united opposition candidate Edmundo González was \"irreversible\", which is contradictory – by the CNE's own assertion, there were enough votes left to be counted that González could still take the lead.\n\nFurthermore, the data published by the CNE reports no more than three numbers: the votes for Maduro (51.2% of the total), the ones for González (44.2%), and an aggregated figure for \"others\" (4.6%). [Analyses of the data](https://elpais.com/america/2024-08-02/quien-gano-en-venezuela-los-datos-de-la-oposicion-son-mas-verificables-que-los-oficiales.html) show that the numbers correspond *exactly* to those percentages, a result consistent with the percentages being made up and the corresponding vote counts being calculated back from them.\n\nMeanwhile, civil society in the country has been performing an [independent, bottom-up verification of the results](https://resultadosconvzla.com/); reports generated immediately after the election by the voting machines in precincts around the country are digitized and posted online. Aggregation of these vote counts show a 37-point victory for González over Maduro.\n\nHow will the Chavista president respond? Will he publish a full, disaggregated count of the results?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that, before Monday, August 12, 2024 at 12:01 AM Venezuelan Standard Time (VET), any entity of the Venezuelan government has published results of the July 28, 2024 election purporting to represent 100% of the votes cast, disaggregated to the level of parish (*parroquia*, a subdivision of municipalities).", "fine_print": "Any set of numbers published is enough to resolve as Yes, regardless of consistency with previously-reported figures, the civil society's audit or even internal consistency (the numbers don't need to add up).\n\nThe numbers need to claim to be complete; partial counts will not be enough to resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 26898, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723419330.194258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723419330.194258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.038502986317240674 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8277762550959284, 2.8300032251324985, 0.7511534702699268, 0.8082686944682784, 0.0, 1.2612957805043996, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.35834256537117526, 0.11798412221122517, 0.28415460757151123, 0.22042859672213486, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19954603836803392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.282236663699183, "coverage": 0.962829015444349, "baseline_score": 72.2354494504014, "spot_peer_score": 37.699863179360705, "peer_archived_score": 4.282236663699183, "baseline_archived_score": 72.2354494504014, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.699863179360705 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723419330.226905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723419330.226905, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 72, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 28, Venezuela held Presidential elections, but full results have not yet been published by the [National Electoral Council (CNE)](https://www.cne.gob.ve/) as of August 2. Hours after polling stations closed, the head of the CNE proclaimed the incumbent, Nicolás Maduro, the winner for a third term.\n\nThe opposition and the international community have pointed out irregularities. The CNE [asserted](https://mincyt.gob.ve/nicolas-maduro-gana-las-elecciones-presidenciales/), with 20% of ballots left to count, that Maduro's 7-point lead over the united opposition candidate Edmundo González was \"irreversible\", which is contradictory – by the CNE's own assertion, there were enough votes left to be counted that González could still take the lead.\n\nFurthermore, the data published by the CNE reports no more than three numbers: the votes for Maduro (51.2% of the total), the ones for González (44.2%), and an aggregated figure for \"others\" (4.6%). [Analyses of the data](https://elpais.com/america/2024-08-02/quien-gano-en-venezuela-los-datos-de-la-oposicion-son-mas-verificables-que-los-oficiales.html) show that the numbers correspond *exactly* to those percentages, a result consistent with the percentages being made up and the corresponding vote counts being calculated back from them.\n\nMeanwhile, civil society in the country has been performing an [independent, bottom-up verification of the results](https://resultadosconvzla.com/); reports generated immediately after the election by the voting machines in precincts around the country are digitized and posted online. Aggregation of these vote counts show a 37-point victory for González over Maduro.\n\nHow will the Chavista president respond? Will he publish a full, disaggregated count of the results?" }, { "id": 26896, "title": "Will any two countries out of the US, UK, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia curtail diplomatic ties with Israel before 2025, citing Israel’s military actions in Gaza?", "short_title": "Israel International Support Loss 2024?", "url_title": "Israel International Support Loss 2024?", "slug": "israel-international-support-loss-2024", "author_id": 197092, "author_username": "pashka24", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-02T14:37:23.812884Z", "published_at": "2024-08-19T16:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.146208Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-19T16:45:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T16:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-19T16:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 53, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], 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"type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*\n\n---\n\nSince its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign\\_relations\\_of\\_Israel), though is still not universally recognized due to the longstanding [conflict between Israel and a number of the Arab countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli\\_conflict). In particular, the [United States has been a close ally of Israel](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23916266/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid), with the US having provided [at least $158 billion](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf) in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding since Israel was established.\n\nIn the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel — which saw [nearly 1,200 people killed](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas\\#chapter-title-0-8) and [over 250 taken hostage](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011) — many friendly countries [expressed support for Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_reactions\\_to\\_the\\_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas\\_war). However, Israel’s responding military campaign against Hamas in Gaza led a [number of countries to sever relations](https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-war-countries-against-cease-fire-diplomats) due to the humanitarian situation, which has seen nearly [40,000 Palestinians killed](https://www.ochaopt.org/) as of August 2024 according to the Gaza Ministry of Health (though this number is disputed by Israel), and close to two million Gazans displaced. The US, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Canada have supplied Israel with weapons since the beginning of the war, though Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands [halted arms sales to Israel in early 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/who-are-israels-main-weapons-suppliers-who-has-halted-exports-2024-05-09/).\n\nBut as the war approaches one year of duration and Israel has [expanded into other regions in Gaza](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4660135-israel-moves-deeper-into-rafah/), the international mood may be shifting against Israel. In March of 2024, the US abstained on a [UN Security Council Resolution demanding a ceasefire](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/israel-gaza-us-abstention-on-un-cease-fire-vote-triggers-netanyahu-rage.html), allowing it to pass against the wishes of Israel. And in May 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) [sought arrest warrants](https://www.newsweek.com/israel-losing-diplomatic-war-palestine-united-nations-europe-1904064) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, a number of countries have now granted diplomatic recognition to Palestine in response to the conflict. These actions have [caused some to argue](https://time.com/6963032/israel-netanyahu-allies-global-standing/) that the world is turning against Israel over its operation in Gaza.\n\nThe countries of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, and Australia make up a subset of the [G20](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20), and are among the ten member states of the G20 that [do not recognize Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_recognition\\_of\\_the\\_State\\_of\\_Palestine\\#:\\~:text=while%20ten%20countries%20(Australia%2C%20Canada%2C%20France%2C%20Germany%2C%20Italy%2C%20Japan%2C%20Mexico%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20the%20United%20Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States)%20have%20not).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, at least two of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, or Australia takes any of the following actions relating to their relations with Israel, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza as a contributing factor:\n\n* Recalls its ambassador from Israel, publicly announcing that the recall is in protest of Israel's actions in Gaza \n* Downgrades its diplomatic relations with Israel, which is defined as reducing its chief of mission in the country to below the level of ambassador, referred to as a chargé d'affaires. \n* Severs diplomatic relations with Israel, which is defined as withdrawing its diplomatic staff from the country. \n* Formally announces that it recognizes the state of Palestine.\n\nAdditionally if the United States takes any one of the following actions before January 1, 2025, citing Israel's military actions in Gaza as a contributing factor, that will count for the United States as well (so if the United States takes one action listed below, and a different country takes one of the actions above, the question will resolve as **Yes**):\n\n* Votes in favor (not simply abstaining) of a UN Security Council or UN General Assembly resolution that makes a demand or request of Israel relating to the Israeli campaign in Gaza (and any related humanitarian situations). \n* Moves the US embassy in Israel from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv (or another location in Israel). \n* Explicitly and unambiguously states that it has implemented an arms embargo on Israel. \n * The statement must clearly say that an arms embargo is the official policy of the United States toward Israel, and not merely threaten a future arms embargo or cut off only some portion of weaponry. The embargo must cut off both weapons sales and bilateral military aid. \n \n\nIf the criteria above have not been met before January 1, 2025, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26896, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735657271.345526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735657271.345526, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.007774977935853389 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.69318709605211, 1.0227510686102848, 0.12954870541728528, 0.003256133383704309, 0.2610143824948949, 0.16342424775177905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5164960024539398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.15305618841337, "peer_score": 1.2618538846407183, "coverage": 0.9946979879275076, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9946979879275076, "spot_peer_score": 5.832576798456575, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 98.15305618841337, "peer_archived_score": 1.2618538846407183, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.832576798456575, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289408.114283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289408.114283, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 41, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This forecasting question is associated with the Verity controversy: [Will Israel Lose International Support for Its Campaign in Gaza?](https://www.verity.news/controversy/Will-Israel-Lose-International-Support-for-its-Campaign-Against-Hamas)*\n\n---\n\nSince its establishment in 1948, Israel has seen [growing international recognition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foreign\\_relations\\_of\\_Israel), though is still not universally recognized due to the longstanding [conflict between Israel and a number of the Arab countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab%E2%80%93Israeli\\_conflict). In particular, the [United States has been a close ally of Israel](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/23916266/us-israel-support-ally-gaza-war-aid), with the US having provided [at least $158 billion](https://sgp.fas.org/crs/mideast/RL33222.pdf) in bilateral assistance and missile defense funding since Israel was established.\n\nIn the wake of the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack against Israel — which saw [nearly 1,200 people killed](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/what-hamas\\#chapter-title-0-8) and [over 250 taken hostage](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67053011) — many friendly countries [expressed support for Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_reactions\\_to\\_the\\_Israel%E2%80%93Hamas\\_war). However, Israel’s responding military campaign against Hamas in Gaza led a [number of countries to sever relations](https://www.axios.com/2023/11/16/israel-gaza-war-countries-against-cease-fire-diplomats) due to the humanitarian situation, which has seen nearly [40,000 Palestinians killed](https://www.ochaopt.org/) as of August 2024 according to the Gaza Ministry of Health (though this number is disputed by Israel), and close to two million Gazans displaced. The US, Germany, Italy, the UK, and Canada have supplied Israel with weapons since the beginning of the war, though Canada, Italy, and the Netherlands [halted arms sales to Israel in early 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/who-are-israels-main-weapons-suppliers-who-has-halted-exports-2024-05-09/).\n\nBut as the war approaches one year of duration and Israel has [expanded into other regions in Gaza](https://thehill.com/policy/defense/4660135-israel-moves-deeper-into-rafah/), the international mood may be shifting against Israel. In March of 2024, the US abstained on a [UN Security Council Resolution demanding a ceasefire](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/26/israel-gaza-us-abstention-on-un-cease-fire-vote-triggers-netanyahu-rage.html), allowing it to pass against the wishes of Israel. And in May 2024 the International Criminal Court (ICC) [sought arrest warrants](https://www.newsweek.com/israel-losing-diplomatic-war-palestine-united-nations-europe-1904064) for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Additionally, a number of countries have now granted diplomatic recognition to Palestine in response to the conflict. These actions have [caused some to argue](https://time.com/6963032/israel-netanyahu-allies-global-standing/) that the world is turning against Israel over its operation in Gaza.\n\nThe countries of the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Canada, France, and Australia make up a subset of the [G20](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/G20), and are among the ten member states of the G20 that [do not recognize Palestine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International\\_recognition\\_of\\_the\\_State\\_of\\_Palestine\\#:\\~:text=while%20ten%20countries%20(Australia%2C%20Canada%2C%20France%2C%20Germany%2C%20Italy%2C%20Japan%2C%20Mexico%2C%20South%20Korea%2C%20the%20United%20Kingdom%2C%20and%20the%20United%20States)%20have%20not)." }, { "id": 26884, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?", "short_title": "Number of UN member states in 2026", "url_title": "Number of UN member states in 2026", "slug": "number-of-un-member-states-in-2026", "author_id": 174854, "author_username": "zf461tmn", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-08-01T15:18:43.768999Z", "published_at": "2024-08-03T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-01T04:43:37.928645Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-03T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-03T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26884, "title": "Will the United Nations have more than 193 member states before January 1, 2026?", "created_at": "2024-08-01T15:18:43.768999Z", "open_time": "2024-08-03T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if the official number of United Nations member states exceeds 193 at any point between the question's opening date and 23:59:59 UTC on December 31, 2025 (inclusive). It will resolve negatively if the number of member states remains at or below 193 throughout this period.\n\nResolution will be based on the official membership count as reported on the United Nations website ([Member States](https://www.un.org/en/about-us/member-states)) in official UN press releases, or from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) reporting on the UN's official numbers.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, \"member states\" refers to full member states of the United Nations, not observer states or any other category of affiliation.\n\nIf a new member state is admitted that would bring the number above 193 but its membership does not take effect until after the resolution date, the question will still resolve negatively.\n\nIf the United Nations as an organization ceases to exist before the resolution date, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 26884, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761972207.422053, "end_time": 1763882181.631, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761972207.422053, "end_time": 1763882181.631, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.029928401374479188 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.22188647333713657, 2.5925538135994777, 2.3370589280358707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.4012260631462153, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288026.09079, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288026.09079, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9173291104358702, 0.08267088956412984 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 125, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of July 2024, the United Nations has 193 member states. This question asks whether that number will increase before the start of 2026.\n\nJoining the UN requires a recommendation from the Security Council and a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly. The process of admitting new members to the UN is generally slow and deliberate, reflecting the organization's role in recognizing sovereign states on the global stage.\n\nPotential candidates for UN membership include:\n\n1. Palestine: Currently a non-member observer state.\n2. Kosovo: Partially recognized, but not a UN member.\n3. Taiwan: Though it functions as an independent state, its UN membership is complicated by China's position.\n4. South Ossetia and Abkhazia: Breakaway regions from Georgia with limited recognition.\n5. Northern Cyprus: Only recognized by Turkey.\n\nAdditionally, new states could potentially emerge through independence movements or the dissolution of existing states.\n\nFactors to consider when forecasting:\n\n- Historical rate of UN membership growth (e.g., the last new member, South Sudan, joined in 2011)\n- Current geopolitical tensions and conflicts\n- Ongoing independence movements\n- Diplomatic efforts of aspiring member states\n- The veto power of permanent Security Council members" }, { "id": 26859, "title": "Will Iran carry out a deadly attack within Israel before September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Iran deadly attack on Israel before Sep 2024?", "url_title": "Iran deadly attack on Israel before Sep 2024?", "slug": "iran-deadly-attack-on-israel-before-sep-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 127582, "username": "lbiii" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-31T10:26:42.272370Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T08:42:00Z", "edited_at": 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, following the date of this question's publication and before September 1, 2024, credible reports indicate that an attack attributed to Iran and occurring within Israel's borders has led to the death of at least five individuals.", "fine_print": "The attack must additionally meet the following conditions for the question to resolve **Yes**:\n\n1. Occur within the area demarcated as \"Israel\" on the Institute for the Study of War's [map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) covering the 2023-2024 Israel-Gaza conflict. For the avoidance of doubt, an attack occuring within areas indicated as Gaza, the West Bank or the Golan Heights on the map will not be sufficient for a positive resolution. Israel's [internal waters and territorial sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_waters) (the latter being Israel's sovereign waters up to 12 nautical miles from the shore) will be considered \"within Israel\" for the purposes of this question. More distant territorial waters beyond the territorial sea (e.g. contiguous zone, exclusive economic zone, etc.) will not be considered \"within Israel.\"\n2. Iran must either (i) explicitly acknowledge having carried out the attack via its armed forces or intelligence operatives or (ii) carry it out in such a manner that credible sources unambiguously attribute it to Iran's armed forces or intelligence operatives.\n3. The attack must be kinetic, involving weaponry or physical force. Cyberattacks, even if resulting in fatalities, will not count towards the resolution of this question.\n4. The threshold of five fatalities must be reached within a 24-hour period. These fatalities do not need to occur at the same location; coordinated attacks on multiple targets or simultaneous assassinations attributed to Iran will meet this criterion. The fatalities must occur within the Israeli territory specified for this question.", "post_id": 26859, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725161963.688499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725161963.688499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.007591123122591694 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.419540416341354, 11.857851597915486, 0.20163314073049265, 0.16047278533073356, 0.1737499939572783, 0.06449589761427049, 0.049607550105135415, 0.0, 0.0208527995735485, 0.04707109703209632, 0.24996528771486948, 0.0039238120297760935, 0.004465789598651783, 0.005441147373864145, 0.0, 0.015768346100454807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.536884417329499e-05, 0.004247389505914615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0072330044754150905, 0.0, 0.0018202230295364774, 0.0, 0.0, 5.680690071470635e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000907419561162877, 0.0018292413345187214, 0.00039818389411064276, 1.846442914319313e-05, 0.0005623051192083739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0011437547147752191, 0.0014545420641932493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020417355044461042, 0.0, 0.001806310497238808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001773571054392949, 0.00024396319203737977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008381008741923594, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00037086797332118806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.1642438266248465e-06, 0.0, 3.4339294624237765e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002188147380029663, 0.0, 4.836328262478357e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.766429267218842e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.322873741831914e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016839988833733043 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 36.315627808181205, "coverage": 0.9999763850002779, "baseline_score": 73.57854492230591, "spot_peer_score": 18.849504646458726, "peer_archived_score": 36.315627808181205, "baseline_archived_score": 73.57854492230591, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.849504646458726 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725161963.747929, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725161963.747929, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 224, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1016, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On Wednesday July 31, 2024, a predawn Israeli strike in Tehran [killed](https://apnews.com/article/iran-hamas-israel-30968a7acb31cd8b259de9650014b779) Ismail Haniyeh, the [political leader](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/07/31/who-is-hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-killed/) of Hamas. Haniyeh's role was the [public face](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/12/israel-gaza-hamas-leaders/) of Hamas, usually based out of Doha, Qatar, who would raise money for the group and was involved in ceasefire negotiations. Hamas [said](https://www.timesofisrael.com/hamas-leader-ismail-haniyeh-assassinated-in-tehran-missile-strike/) Haniyeh was killed “in a treacherous Zionist strike on his residence in Tehran after he participated in the inauguration of Iran’s new president.” \n\nSubsequent to the assassination, the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, [tweeted](https://x.com/khamenei_ir/status/1818579774303793293): \n\n>Following this bitter, tragic event which has taken place within the borders of the Islamic Republic, it is our duty to take revenge.\n\nIn April 2024, in retaliation for Israel's bombing of the Iranian consulate in Damascus, Syria on April 1, Iran [struck Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iranian_strikes_against_Israel) with a barrage of kamikaze drones and missiles, which caused injuries though no reported fatalities.\n\nIn addition to the Haniyeh assassination, on July 30, 2024, Israeli Air Force fighter jets [killed](https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-812577) the seniormost military leader of Hezbollah, Fuad Shukr, in a strike in Beirut, Lebanon." }, { "id": 26844, "title": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-opposition-candidate-edmundo-gonzalez-concede-the-2024-venezuelan-election-to-maduro-before-september-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:24:31.301381Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.293560Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26844, "title": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:24:31.301381Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-01T11:08:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as \"No\".", "fine_print": "- A concession by González must be explicit and unambiguous. Statements that only imply a concession or acknowledge Maduro's de facto control without formally conceding will not count.\n\n- If González is arrested, disappears, or is otherwise prevented from making a public statement, the question will resolve as \"No\" unless he manages to concede the election through other means (e.g., a statement released by his representatives or family).", "post_id": 26844, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521785.428223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521785.428223, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.17 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.83, 0.17 ], "means": [ 0.17373500875442832 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5773535050050417, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.8676520897500979, 0.0, 1.8061670986748866, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1387296791238675, 0.0, 1.8087185139825865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 1.2501577142572953, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.4744097127719098, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06427640630688772, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 73.11832415721999, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 73.11832415721999 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722521785.472112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722521785.472112, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9538178214721637, 0.04618217852783638 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro." }, { "id": 26842, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-openai-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:55.369636Z", "published_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.636942Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26842, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will OpenAI announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:55.369636Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its most recent funding round, OpenAI was valued at $80 billion. Although there has been speculation that the company could IPO, nothing concrete has been announced yet. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if OpenAI, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://openai.com/news/ If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of OpenAI's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://openai.com/news/) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nOpenAI's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 26842, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694537.946499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694537.946499, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3317200268421459 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2532462415656689, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46795498672970304, 0.3058323220141224, 0.9778163735392204, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.09598219610298886, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2262347187759741, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.8834537720243774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0620761741823403, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694537.973523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694537.973523, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8085997847227286, 0.19140021527727136 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its most recent funding round, OpenAI was valued at $80 billion. 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If it reports production of 410,831 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports production and deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. 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2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26839, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with stacked battery technology before October 1, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.604215Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T17:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Rumors suggest the iPhone 16 Pro models will use stacked battery technology, which can result in higher capacity and a longer lifespan. Stacked batteries are common in electric vehicles and medical devices, but are an emerging technology for smartphones.\n\n>The stacked battery could come alongside faster 40W wired charging and 20W MagSafe charging.\n\n>The iPhone 16 battery is expected to have an updated stainless steel casing that allows for higher energy density, ultimately bringing a density increase of up to 10 percent. That could lead to longer battery life, but this isn't a feature that is likely to come to all iPhone 16 models.\n\n>EU law requires smartphone manufacturers create batteries that can be replaced by owners using easily accessible tools, and Apple will need to implement support by 2025. Apple is planning to adopt a new battery replacement method for at least one iPhone 16 model, encasing the battery in metal rather than foil. With a low volt of electricity, the battery will be able to removed from the chassis, which would eliminate the need for adhesive and ease repairs.\n\n>Rumors suggest that most of the iPhone 16 models will see a small increase in battery life.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that has stacked battery technology, defined in the fine print. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "\"Stacked battery technology\" is [defined](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/iphone-15-battery-stacked-charge-time-b2376711.html) as a design in which battery cells fold the electrodes up into multiple layers. This offers several potential advantages including reduced heat and higher charge capacity. \n\nThe iPhone must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. Previous models such as the iPhone 15 do not count. \n\nThe new iPhones with stacked battery technology can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. They does not have to be available for purchase. \n\nLeaks or unofficial release of information about the phone will not count.", "post_id": 26839, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694577.259966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.603 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694577.259966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.603 ], "centers": [ 0.775 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.22499999999999998, 0.775 ], "means": [ 0.7007843278747236 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45217579285012033, 0.02581358824615143, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0094962884186239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.663527473348308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.4495353103235533, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0849590708298935, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0827499719646079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -115.20030934450503, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -115.20030934450503 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694577.287807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694577.287807, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.32244888829481666, 0.6775511117051833 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/):\n\n>Rumors suggest the iPhone 16 Pro models will use stacked battery technology, which can result in higher capacity and a longer lifespan. Stacked batteries are common in electric vehicles and medical devices, but are an emerging technology for smartphones.\n\n>The stacked battery could come alongside faster 40W wired charging and 20W MagSafe charging.\n\n>The iPhone 16 battery is expected to have an updated stainless steel casing that allows for higher energy density, ultimately bringing a density increase of up to 10 percent. That could lead to longer battery life, but this isn't a feature that is likely to come to all iPhone 16 models.\n\n>EU law requires smartphone manufacturers create batteries that can be replaced by owners using easily accessible tools, and Apple will need to implement support by 2025. Apple is planning to adopt a new battery replacement method for at least one iPhone 16 model, encasing the battery in metal rather than foil. With a low volt of electricity, the battery will be able to removed from the chassis, which would eliminate the need for adhesive and ease repairs.\n\n>Rumors suggest that most of the iPhone 16 models will see a small increase in battery life.\n" }, { "id": 26838, "title": "Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-median-net-worth-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-be-above-102-billion-on-september-16-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.306699Z", "published_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.235739Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26838, "title": "Will the median net worth on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index be above $10.2 billion on September 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.306699Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T21:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of April 30, 2024, the median net worth on Bloomberg's BIllionaires Index [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20240430225424/https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) was $9.535B. On July 10, 2024, it was $10.0B.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the median net worth on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is above $10.2 billion when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the median net worth is $10.2 billion or less.", "fine_print": "If there is an even number of people listed on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index, the median net worth is calculated by taking the simple average of the net worths of the two individuals ranked in the middle of the list. For example if there are 500 people (the number as of July 10, 2024), the median net worth is calculated by taking the simple average of the net worths of the 250th and 251st ranked individuals. \n\nIf there is an odd number of people listed on the Index, the median will simply be the net worth of the person ranked in the middle. For example, if the list contains 501 individuals, then it will be the net worth of the person ranked 251st. \n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). . \n", "post_id": 26838, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694604.580541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694604.580541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.525 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6137314565435319 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07016860785683743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7620908974955233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8243121018521602, 0.0, 0.8682671503582153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3022224809961703, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0610555416041465, 0.0, 1.2563074167144999, 0.2982568647095788, 0.0, 1.7052288977512164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0094962884186239, 0.46866138545748215, 0.019746017729336655, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722694604.618466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722694604.618466, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4686251789317988, 0.5313748210682012 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of April 30, 2024, the median net worth on Bloomberg's BIllionaires Index [was](https://web.archive.org/web/20240430225424/https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/) was $9.535B. On July 10, 2024, it was $10.0B.\n" }, { "id": 26837, "title": "Will \"Woman's World\" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-womans-world-by-katy-perry-achieve-a-ranking-higher-than-15th-on-the-billboard-hot-100-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.072026Z", "published_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.380554Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26837, "title": "Will \"Woman's World\" by Katy Perry achieve a ranking higher than 15th on the Billboard Hot 100 before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T15:05:54.072026Z", "open_time": "2024-08-02T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the [Philadelphia Inquirer newspaper](https://www.inquirer.com/politics/nation/kamala-harris-walkout-songs-katy-perry-womans-world-20240722.html): \n\n>Katy Perry’s latest single, “Woman’s World,” flopped hard among listeners and critics when it premiered this month. Could Kamala Harris’ presidential run be the song’s saving grace?\n\n>When it debuted, critics quickly compared the pop track to something straight from the 2016 Hillary Clinton “girl boss” era. It’s a glossy number with simplistic lyrics about how women are strong, cool, and great.\n\nAt the time of this question (July 26, 2024), the song was ranked 63rd on the Billboard Hot 100.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, the song Woman's World by \nKaty Perry achieves a ranking higher than 15th place on the Billboard Hot 100, which can be accessed [here](https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/). If the song fails to achieve that ranking, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The highest position on the Billboard Hot 100 is 1 and the lowest is 100. Therefore, 14th place is higher than 15th place, as is 13th place, 12th place, and so on. 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