Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2740
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2760", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2720", "results": [ { "id": 21914, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?", "short_title": "No Explosive Growth by 2043", "url_title": "No Explosive Growth by 2043", "slug": "no-explosive-growth-by-2043", "author_id": 164919, "author_username": "srid", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:05:32.597000Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.771848Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:21.137283Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21914, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that real gross world product will not exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any single year by January 1, 2043?", "created_at": "2024-03-15T21:05:32.597000Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2043-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2042-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2042-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/explosive-growth-bet) on July 27, 2023 at 4:1 odds favoring (Metaculus forecaster) [Matthew Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/).**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Matthew Barnett seems likely to beat me on our current AI bet. Even so, I’m ready to do another bet against him on the same theme. Barnett is so optimistic about AI that he’s predicting a massive increase in Gross World Product. \n\nMatthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. [Source](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fsaogRokXxby6LFd7/a-compute-based-framework-for-thinking-about-the-future-of).\n\n>Our terms:\n\n>If:\n\n>By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year\n\n>Then:\n\n>Bryan pays Matthew the current market value of $2,000 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.\n\n>Else:\n\n>Matthew pays Bryan the current market value of $500 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: real gross world product did NOT exceed 130% of its previous yearly peak for any year by January 1, 2043. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves [per IMF data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21914, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754202210.046019, "end_time": 1770310599.568789, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754202210.046019, "end_time": 1770310599.568789, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.86 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7616755135971853 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.401327957992393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006304276060674225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2274691399399458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017752108957266952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6183252296339623, 0.9253192545386865, 0.0, 0.31994441003844243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7288213086725668, 0.5221560426127164, 1.4769885224665837, 0.09464378440008571, 0.7899839106380127, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.10666096661288105, 0.989576356889995, 0.008663037296332391, 0.7354588283401317, 0.0, 0.5219090485655331, 0.0, 0.18546127569376372, 0.5854929162814676, 0.11981076312780951, 0.32007847204971057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2397664305453589 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287865.508113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287865.508113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.17518190157878566, 0.8248180984212143 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 70, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/explosive-growth-bet) on July 27, 2023 at 4:1 odds favoring (Metaculus forecaster) [Matthew Barnett](https://www.metaculus.com/accounts/profile/108770/).**\n\n---\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>Matthew Barnett seems likely to beat me on our current AI bet. Even so, I’m ready to do another bet against him on the same theme. Barnett is so optimistic about AI that he’s predicting a massive increase in Gross World Product. \n\nMatthew thinks there’s a decent chance that AGI supercharges growth by 2043. [Source](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/fsaogRokXxby6LFd7/a-compute-based-framework-for-thinking-about-the-future-of).\n\n>Our terms:\n\n>If:\n\n>By January 1, 2043, real gross world product exceeds 130% of its previous yearly peak value for any single year\n\n>Then:\n\n>Bryan pays Matthew the current market value of $2,000 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023.\n\n>Else:\n\n>Matthew pays Bryan the current market value of $500 worth of the S&P 500 purchased at the closing price on July 27, 2023." }, { "id": 21879, "title": "Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?", "short_title": "U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?", "url_title": "U.S. Nukes to Japan or Philippines by 2035?", "slug": "us-nukes-to-japan-or-philippines-by-2035", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T02:06:24.897481Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.040135Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21879, "title": "Will the U.S. deploy nuclear missiles to Japan or the Philippines before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T02:06:24.897481Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> The U.S. military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, a U.S. official told Nikkei, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to enhance deterrence against China.<br />\n> …\n> \n> Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the U.S. Army will send the intermediate-range missile units primarily to the U.S. territory of Guam, looking for more forward deployment to Asian allies in a contingency.\n> \n> \"These will be permanently deployed to U.S. territories in the region, primarily Guam,\" Panda said. \"Allies may be open to rotational deployments in crises, but this is very much dependent on future political dynamics.\"\n> \n> Responding to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea will require missiles that can reach targets in those critical waterways or the mainland of China. This means an extended deployment near the so-called first island chain, which stretches from Japan's Okinawa islands to Taiwan and the Philippines.<br />\n> —[Nakamura & Moriyasu, 2023](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-to-deploy-new-ground-based-missiles-to-Indo-Pacific-in-2024)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States of America (USA) is all set to mount a “missile wall” in the Pacific Ocean, based largely out of Islands in Japan, Taiwan and Philippines in 2024 to counteract an ever-aggressive China.\n> \n> According to a report in Asia Times, General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, said the US would deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024.<br />\n> …\n> \n> The US move has been enabled by the fact that it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 in reaction to Russia’s intransigent non-compliance to the pact.<br />\n> —[FP Staff, 2023](https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-to-deploy-missile-wall-in-pacific-to-checkmate-china-in-2024-japan-most-likely-host-13418652.html)<br /><br />\n\n> A 1960 accord with Japan permits the United States to move weapons of mass destruction through Japanese territory and allows American warships and submarines to carry nuclear weapons into Japan's ports and American aircraft to bring them in during landings. The agreement allows the United States to deploy or store nuclear arms in Japan without requiring the express permission of the Japanese Government. The discussion took place during negotiations in 1959, and the agreement was made in 1960 by Aiichiro Fujiyama, then Japan's Foreign Minister.<br />\n> —[Wikipedia, n.d.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_nuclear_weapons_in_Japan)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States and the Philippines on Friday signed a landmark deal that would allow Washington to export nuclear technology and material to Manila, which is exploring the use of nuclear power to decarbonise and boost energy independence.\n> \n> \"The United States will be able to share equipment and material with the Philippines as they work to develop small modular reactors and other civilian nuclear energy infrastructure,\" U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a signing ceremony on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.<br />\n> —[Reuters, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-philippines-ink-landmark-deal-nuclear-cooperation-2023-11-17/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the U.S. deploys land-based nuclear missiles to either Japan or the Philippines (or both), according to credible reports. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Credible reports indicating that the U.S. has deployed such nuclear missiles covertly count for Yes resolution. For example, reporting that says \"anonymous US officials say. . .\" or \"China has accused the US of. . .\" count for Yes resolution.\n\nJapan and the Philippines [are both major non-NATO allies](https://samm.dsca.mil/glossary/major-non-nato-allies#:~:text=Currently%2018%20countries%20are%20designated,Korea%2C%20Thailand%2C%20and%20Tunisia.). It seems _possible_ that nuclear missiles could be deployed in either of these countries as part of NATO’s [nuclear sharing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_sharing) program. If this does happen, and it’s not clear from which NATO nation the missiles deployed in Japan or the Philippines originated (i.e., it’s not known that the originating country was not the U.S.), then for the purposes of this question this situation counts for Yes resolution.", "post_id": 21879, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757331833.930328, "end_time": 1777011179.331527, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.087 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757331833.930328, "end_time": 1777011179.331527, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.087 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.913, 0.087 ], "means": [ 0.19695550638349468 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.62366871627356, 0.8419199410609162, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.0844043823626969, 1.352705612600127, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6136467849758769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287419.006625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287419.006625, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9888984333100961, 0.011101566689903957 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> The U.S. military plans to deploy ground-based intermediate-range missiles in the Indo-Pacific in 2024, a U.S. official told Nikkei, establishing its first arsenal in the region since the end of the Cold War to enhance deterrence against China.<br />\n> …\n> \n> Ankit Panda, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said the U.S. Army will send the intermediate-range missile units primarily to the U.S. territory of Guam, looking for more forward deployment to Asian allies in a contingency.\n> \n> \"These will be permanently deployed to U.S. territories in the region, primarily Guam,\" Panda said. \"Allies may be open to rotational deployments in crises, but this is very much dependent on future political dynamics.\"\n> \n> Responding to a crisis in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea will require missiles that can reach targets in those critical waterways or the mainland of China. This means an extended deployment near the so-called first island chain, which stretches from Japan's Okinawa islands to Taiwan and the Philippines.<br />\n> —[Nakamura & Moriyasu, 2023](https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Indo-Pacific/U.S.-to-deploy-new-ground-based-missiles-to-Indo-Pacific-in-2024)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States of America (USA) is all set to mount a “missile wall” in the Pacific Ocean, based largely out of Islands in Japan, Taiwan and Philippines in 2024 to counteract an ever-aggressive China.\n> \n> According to a report in Asia Times, General Charles Flynn, Commander of US Army Forces Pacific, said the US would deploy new intermediate-range missiles including Tomahawks and SM-6s to the Pacific region in 2024.<br />\n> …\n> \n> The US move has been enabled by the fact that it withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019 in reaction to Russia’s intransigent non-compliance to the pact.<br />\n> —[FP Staff, 2023](https://www.firstpost.com/world/us-to-deploy-missile-wall-in-pacific-to-checkmate-china-in-2024-japan-most-likely-host-13418652.html)<br /><br />\n\n> A 1960 accord with Japan permits the United States to move weapons of mass destruction through Japanese territory and allows American warships and submarines to carry nuclear weapons into Japan's ports and American aircraft to bring them in during landings. The agreement allows the United States to deploy or store nuclear arms in Japan without requiring the express permission of the Japanese Government. The discussion took place during negotiations in 1959, and the agreement was made in 1960 by Aiichiro Fujiyama, then Japan's Foreign Minister.<br />\n> —[Wikipedia, n.d.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_nuclear_weapons_in_Japan)<br /><br />\n\n> The United States and the Philippines on Friday signed a landmark deal that would allow Washington to export nuclear technology and material to Manila, which is exploring the use of nuclear power to decarbonise and boost energy independence.\n> \n> \"The United States will be able to share equipment and material with the Philippines as they work to develop small modular reactors and other civilian nuclear energy infrastructure,\" U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a signing ceremony on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in San Francisco.<br />\n> —[Reuters, 2023](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/us-philippines-ink-landmark-deal-nuclear-cooperation-2023-11-17/)" }, { "id": 21875, "title": "If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "short_title": "U.S. Nuclear First Use After China Drops NFU", "url_title": "U.S. Nuclear First Use After China Drops NFU", "slug": "us-nuclear-first-use-after-china-drops-nfu", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T01:19:24.143078Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.794315Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21875, "title": "If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T01:19:24.143078Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21874/china-nuclear-first-use-after-renouncing-nfu/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use after China officially renounces their “no first use” policy. This question will be **Annulled** if the U.S. does not use a nuclear weapon first before 2035, and will resolve as **No** if the U.S. uses a nuclear weapon first but China has not first renounced its no first use policy.", "fine_print": "The renouncement has to be current policy at the time of a first use by either side. In other words, if China officially renounces no first use but later reinstates it and then there's a first use, Yes resolution is not triggered.\n\nFor Yes resolution, it does not matter how long after China officially renounces their no first use policy the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon as a first use, as long as these both happen before 2035.\n\nA U.S. detonation counts as a first use if China has not first detonated a nuclear weapon against the U.S. or Taiwan. If China has detonated a nuclear weapon against another of its adversaries—India, for example—then this does not affect whether a U.S. detonation on China counts as a first use.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an inadvertent (counter)attack does not count as an offensive first use. Note the following definition: “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” ([Barrett et al., 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)) If China launches a nuclear weapon against an adversary and sources disagree on whether this was a deliberate or inadvertent attack, a panel of at least three experts will decide resolution via majority vote.\n\nAdditionally, for the purposes of this question, a “warning shot” (e.g., one in international waters) counts for Yes resolution. For Yes resolution via this path, the warning shot does have to reasonably be a warning shot rather than a test detonation, and it does need to involve a nuclear payload (as opposed to being a training exercise with missiles that can be armed with nuclear warheads but which are armed with conventional explosives in the exercise).", "post_id": 21875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756864759.666278, "end_time": 1777011469.479436, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756864759.666278, "end_time": 1777011469.479436, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7350099271659613 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5660857864134488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.570143610552091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9111124748721853, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9757033487885829 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287952.319841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287952.319841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.375029739497424, 0.624970260502576 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21874/china-nuclear-first-use-after-renouncing-nfu/)" }, { "id": 21874, "title": "If China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "short_title": "China Nuclear First Use After Renouncing NFU", "url_title": "China Nuclear First Use After Renouncing NFU", "slug": 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weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will they have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T01:09:20.439178Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2035-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21875/us-nuclear-first-use-after-china-drops-nfu/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2035, China detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use after having officially renounced their “no first use” policy. This question will be **Annulled** if China does not use a nuclear weapon first before 2035, and will resolve as **No** if China uses a nuclear weapon first but has not first renounced no first use.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, an inadvertent (counter)attack does not count as an offensive first use. Note the following definition: “In an inadvertent detonation, the attacking nation mistakenly concludes that it is under nuclear attack and launches one or more nuclear weapons in what it believes is a counterattack” ([Barrett et al., 2013](http://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/sgs21barrett.pdf)) If China launches a nuclear weapon against an adversary and sources disagree on whether this was a deliberate or inadvertent attack, a panel of at least three experts will decide resolution via majority vote.\n\nAdditionally, for the purposes of this question, a “warning shot” (e.g., one in international waters) counts for Yes resolution. For Yes resolution via this path, the warning shot does have to reasonably be a warning shot rather than a test detonation, and it does need to involve a nuclear payload (as opposed to being a training exercise with missiles that can be armed with nuclear warheads but which are armed with conventional explosives in the exercise).", "post_id": 21874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756864813.648049, "end_time": 1777638312.075533, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756864813.648049, "end_time": 1777638312.075533, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.5233686169399315 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6980965657768824, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10138151621662865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8104013634291142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0541425161069094, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.22270172488500573, 1.1169060412652794, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.834626896000901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290135.569469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290135.569469, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5725068896016008, 0.42749311039839927 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For decades, China has maintained a “no first use” nuclear weapons policy, which is a commitment by Chinese leadership to not use nuclear weapons first under any circumstances (e.g., [Zhao, 2023](https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/11/06/united-states-china-nuclear-meeting-no-first-use-arms-control/)) (In other words, China commits to only using nuclear weapons in retaliation to an adversary launching a nuclear attack on China first.)\n\nThere is debate amongst D.C. nuclear analysts as to whether China will abide by its no first use policy if and when push comes to shove. China’s nuclear arsenal has undergone an unprecedented expansion in recent years ([Kristensen & Korda, 2024](https://thebulletin.org/premium/2024-01/chinese-nuclear-weapons-2024/)) which leads some to further question China’s nuclear intentions.\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China go back on its “no first use” nuclear weapons policy before the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21778/china-nuclear-no-first-use/)\n- [If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21875/us-nuclear-first-use-after-china-drops-nfu/)" }, { "id": 21871, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?", "short_title": "China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?", "url_title": "China Disavows Force in Taiwan Reunification?", "slug": "china-disavows-force-in-taiwan-reunification", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:16:15.333663Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T17:33:21.077676Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21871, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:16:15.333663Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the [sole legitimate government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Strait_relations) of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (aka Taiwan) controls the islands. The two states remain in a state of tension following the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War). Though there has not been active conflict since 1979, the two parties have not agreed to an armistice or peace treaty.\n\nIn May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said: “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, China makes an official statement saying that it has disavowed use of force as a means for reunification with Taiwan. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The statement must make clear that China does not intend to use force at any point in the future. In other words, a statement saying “we will not use force at this time” does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an “official statement” is one made by any member of the [Chinese Communist Party’s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party) standing committee, including the General Secretary, any leadership member of the [Standing Committee of the National People's Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_Committee_of_the_National_People%27s_Congress) (i.e., the Chairman, the Secretary-General, or a Vice-Chairperson), any member of the [State Council’s executive meeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Council_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#:~:text=%5Bedit%5D-,Executive%20Meeting,-%5Bedit%5D), or any [military general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_generals_of_China).", "post_id": 21871, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757871190.871216, "end_time": 1758520188.108086, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757871190.871216, "end_time": 1758520188.108086, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.03548249776818917 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.682760336444536, 0.4935210257355016, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.35834256537117526, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289511.367111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289511.367111, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [People's Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China) (PRC), governing mainland China including Hainan, Hong Kong, and Macau, officially claims to be the [sole legitimate government](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-Strait_relations) of the islands of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen, and Matsu. Currently, the [Republic of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan) (aka Taiwan) controls the islands. The two states remain in a state of tension following the [Chinese Civil War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Civil_War). Though there has not been active conflict since 1979, the two parties have not agreed to an armistice or peace treaty.\n\nIn May 2020, [PRC General Li Zuocheng](https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-taiwan-security/attack-on-taiwan-an-option-to-stop-independence-top-china-general-says-idUSKBN2350AD) said: “If the possibility for peaceful reunification is lost, the people’s armed forces will, with the whole nation, including the people of Taiwan, take all necessary steps to resolutely smash any separatist plots or actions.”" }, { "id": 21870, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?", "short_title": "China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?", "url_title": "China Nuclear Threat For Taiwan Interference?", "slug": "china-nuclear-threat-for-taiwan-interference", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:04:42.437553Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.284547Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21870, "title": "Will China make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use before if there is interference with Taiwan?", "created_at": "2024-03-14T00:04:42.437553Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first nuclear test detonation in 1964 (see, e.g., [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=Nuclear%20use%20policy,21%5D%3A%E2%80%8A21)).\n\nIt appears that China has only made one nuclear threat in its history, around two decades ago: “In 2005, Chinese major general Zhu Chenghu said that China might retaliate with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked Chinese forces in a conflict over Taiwan” ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail#:~:text=In%202005%2C%20Chinese%20major%20general%20Zhu%20Chenghu%20said%20that%20China%20might%20retaliate%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20if%20the%20United%20States%20attacked%20Chinese%20forces%20in%20a%20conflict%20over%20Taiwan.%5B17%5D)).\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21869/us-nuclear-defense-taiwan/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, between question launch and January 1, 2030, China makes an official statement threatening nuclear use if another nation gets its military involved in the China-Taiwan situation. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be determined by a panel of three or more Metaculus admins. The following are some guidelines they will follow for resolution.\n\n-An “official statement” is one made by any member of the [Chinese Communist Party’s](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Communist_Party) standing committee, including the General Secretary, any leadership member of the [Standing Committee of the National People's Congress](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standing_Committee_of_the_National_People%27s_Congress) (i.e., the Chairman, the Secretary-General, or a Vice-Chairperson), any member of the [State Council’s executive meeting](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_Council_of_the_People%27s_Republic_of_China#:~:text=%5Bedit%5D-,Executive%20Meeting,-%5Bedit%5D), or any [military general](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_generals_of_China). Responses to questions (from reporters, say) made by any of the aforementioned people count as an official statement.\n\n-Explicit threats like “if the U.S. defends Taiwan militarily, will we use nuclear weapons if necessary” count for Yes resolution. Vaguer threats like “all options are on the table” also count for Yes resolution.", "post_id": 21870, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756864846.001852, "end_time": 1758558462.453161, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756864846.001852, "end_time": 1758558462.453161, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.3378135784381603 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.029941953078415226, 0.22948150549083976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5243776579668233, 0.6015137293468026, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.798553976305981, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15637957745998016, 0.9160279542388619, 0.8379487954001852, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5536535465378819, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3325532361794137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5005769369199453 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289354.123796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289354.123796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9368792816130418, 0.06312071838695815 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has maintained a nuclear “no first use” policy—i.e., a policy “not to be the first to use nuclear weapons at any time and under any circumstances” and “not to threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear-weapon states”—since its first nuclear test detonation in 1964 (see, e.g., [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction#:~:text=Nuclear%20use%20policy,21%5D%3A%E2%80%8A21)).\n\nIt appears that China has only made one nuclear threat in its history, around two decades ago: “In 2005, Chinese major general Zhu Chenghu said that China might retaliate with nuclear weapons if the United States attacked Chinese forces in a conflict over Taiwan” ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail#:~:text=In%202005%2C%20Chinese%20major%20general%20Zhu%20Chenghu%20said%20that%20China%20might%20retaliate%20with%20nuclear%20weapons%20if%20the%20United%20States%20attacked%20Chinese%20forces%20in%20a%20conflict%20over%20Taiwan.%5B17%5D)).\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21869/us-nuclear-defense-taiwan/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)" }, { "id": 21869, "title": "Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?", "short_title": "US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?", "url_title": "US Says Will Use Nukes to Defend Taiwan?", "slug": "us-says-will-use-nukes-to-defend-taiwan", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-13T23:49:14.235663Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-09T10:18:06.982187Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21869, "title": "Will the U.S. make an official statement before 2030 threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan?", "created_at": "2024-03-13T23:49:14.235663Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since dropping atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the U.S. has issued a number of nuclear threats, [by](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail) [some](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/05/eisj-o05.html) [accounts](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.2968/062005016), including against China, Cuba, and Vietnam.\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China make an official statement threatening nuclear use if there is interference with Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21870/china-nuclear-taiwan-interference/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, the U.S. makes an official statement threatening nuclear use in the defense of Taiwan, if Taiwan is attacked by an adversary. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "Resolution will be determined by a panel of three or more Metaculus admins. The following are some guidelines they will follow for resolution.\n\n-For the purposes of this question, an official statement is either i) one issued by the executive branch or the White House, or ii) a public statement, including responses to questions (from reporters, say), made by the President or other spokespersons of the executive branch.\n\n-Explicit threats like “if China attacks Taiwan, we will use nuclear weapons if necessary” count for Yes resolution. Vaguer threats like “all options are on the table” also count for Yes resolution.\n\n-On “in defense of Taiwan”: a threat made against China in general in response to aggression will be considered as in defense of Taiwan if there is a reasonable case for the threat being triggered by Chinese actions against Taiwan. The panel will err on the side of being lenient/permissive with respect to “a reasonable case”.", "post_id": 21869, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757413076.465881, "end_time": 1759554870.625945, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757413076.465881, "end_time": 1759554870.625945, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06811609205076753 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.676082191669951, 0.8742185872190221, 1.8527420207091754, 1.011440312499718, 0.0, 0.7704095806104075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8355804261814468, 1.109979073179645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.17748291552827444, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286870.573125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286870.573125, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9824595202524866, 0.017540479747513348 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since dropping atomic bombs on Japan in World War II, the U.S. has issued a number of nuclear threats, [by](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_blackmail) [some](https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/10/05/eisj-o05.html) [accounts](https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.2968/062005016), including against China, Cuba, and Vietnam.\n\n---\n\nRelated questions:\n\n- [Will China make an official statement threatening nuclear use if there is interference with Taiwan?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21870/china-nuclear-taiwan-interference/)\n- [Will China launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan by the following years?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)\n- [If China invades Taiwan before 2035, will the US respond with military force?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11112/us-response-if-china-invades-taiwan-2035/)\n- [If China launches an invasion of Taiwan before 2035, and the US intervenes, will China attack the United States?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11127/china-to-retaliate-if-us-intervenes-in-taiwan/)" }, { "id": 21867, "title": "Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?", "short_title": "Successful Discharge Petition 118th Congress?", "url_title": "Successful Discharge Petition 118th Congress?", "slug": "successful-discharge-petition-118th-congress", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-13T19:25:58.452052Z", "published_at": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.276089Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21867, "title": "Will any discharge petition of the 118th Congress receive 218 signatures?", "created_at": "2024-03-13T19:25:58.452052Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T20:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-17T20:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-17T20:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T21:47:19.700120Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-15T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House. \n\nCongress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a [discharge petition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition) and bringing the bill from the committee to the floor; however, to succeed, it needs to be signed by the majority of the House members. \n\nDue to the public signing process and the petition requiring signatures of the House majority, they are rarely successful. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition#:~:text=Between%201931%20and%202003%2C%20563%20discharge%20petitions%20were%20filed%2C%20of%20which%20only%2047%20obtained%20the%20required%20majority%20of%20signatures.):\n\n>Between 1931 and 2003, 563 discharge petitions were filed, of which only 47 obtained the required majority of signatures.\n\nAs of 13 March 2024, 10 discharge petitions had been filed at the 118th Congress, none of which had been signed by a House majority (218 votes).\n\nIn regard to the overseas aid bill, two discharge petitions: [No.9](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118) and [No.10](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031210?CongressNum=118) were filed on 12 March 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if any discharge petition listed on the [Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/?CongressNum=118) page and filed during the [118th Congress term](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/118th_United_States_Congress) receives 218 signatures or more.\n\nIf none of the discharge petitions have satisfied the above criteria by the end of the last day of work of the 118th Congress, the question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question is specifically about reaching the 218 signatures threshold. Even if the U.S. House is downsized and requires fewer votes for a majority, the question will still need 218 signatures to resolve as **Yes**.\n\nIf some signatures are retracted after reaching the threshold, the question will still resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 21867, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735314300.576522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735314300.576522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.012071430382471179 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.7231051884742525, 1.0590501540780513, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11754517647674277, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -42.475583991165834, "peer_score": -2.9464009572132803, "coverage": 0.20808598547031087, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9897496286021531, "spot_peer_score": -10.353450656830924, "spot_baseline_score": -173.6965594166206, "baseline_archived_score": -42.475583991165834, "peer_archived_score": -2.9464009572132803, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.353450656830924, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -173.6965594166206 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288468.728372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288468.728372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On 13 February 2024, the $95-billion overseas aid bill passed the US Senate in a 70-29 vote; however, the US Speaker Mike Johnson refused to say he would bring the bill to the floor of the House. \n\nCongress members may bypass the Speaker's will by filing a [discharge petition](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition) and bringing the bill from the committee to the floor; however, to succeed, it needs to be signed by the majority of the House members. \n\nDue to the public signing process and the petition requiring signatures of the House majority, they are rarely successful. [According to Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Discharge_petition#:~:text=Between%201931%20and%202003%2C%20563%20discharge%20petitions%20were%20filed%2C%20of%20which%20only%2047%20obtained%20the%20required%20majority%20of%20signatures.):\n\n>Between 1931 and 2003, 563 discharge petitions were filed, of which only 47 obtained the required majority of signatures.\n\nAs of 13 March 2024, 10 discharge petitions had been filed at the 118th Congress, none of which had been signed by a House majority (218 votes).\n\nIn regard to the overseas aid bill, two discharge petitions: [No.9](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031209?CongressNum=118) and [No.10](https://clerk.house.gov/DischargePetition/2024031210?CongressNum=118) were filed on 12 March 2024." }, { "id": 21864, "title": "Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Christiano Confirmed at US AISI by April 1?", "url_title": "Christiano Confirmed at US AISI by April 1?", "slug": "christiano-confirmed-at-us-aisi-by-april-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-13T16:36:11.227925Z", "published_at": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.303122Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": 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"2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21864, "title": "Will Paul Christiano be publicly confirmed to be joining the US AI Safety Institute before April 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-13T16:36:11.227925Z", "open_time": "2024-03-14T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-16T08:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-16T08:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A March 7, 2024, [VentureBeat article](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nist-staffers-revolt-against-potential-appointment-of-effective-altruist-ai-researcher-to-us-ai-safety-institute/) claimed that AI safety researcher [Paul Christiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)) was expected to be appointed to a role at a newly announced branch of the US [National Institute of Standards and Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Standards_and_Technology) (NIST) known as the US [Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (USAISI). The article claimed that Christiano's expected appointment had upset some NIST staff members and led some staff members to threaten to resign. The article attributes the disturbance to be caused by Christiano's affiliation with effective altruism and longtermism, and a negative impression of those affiliation held by some staffers.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, either Paul Christiano or representatives for NIST or the US AI Safety Institute (USAISI) officially and publicly confirm that Paul Christiano will be employed at the USAISI.", "fine_print": "Leaks or anonymous reports do not count.\n\nThe question resolves as **Yes** if an official confirmation is made, regardless of whether it is later retracted.\n\nParticipation in the [US AI Safety Institute Consortium](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (AISIC) without direct employment by NIST or the US AI Safety Institute does not count.", "post_id": 21864, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711892403.047301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711892403.047301, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0352666682793332 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.348126486903041, 7.241014576046683, 0.04006867348160595, 0.17346772773520647, 0.21421001891159933, 0.0981670382747311, 0.0, 0.2323433889688867, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14015431126769545, 0.0, 0.006759718771926677, 0.007745309224094398, 0.0, 0.05527481441384345, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0, 0.003689275185039177, 0.1478309882034365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19006146741082358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7899978921399792, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021274407994285806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007555144087175598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010381920838562959 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.407228614515777, "coverage": 0.9999112376795046, "baseline_score": 70.87811484249687, "spot_peer_score": 21.487926376263893, "peer_archived_score": 20.407228614515777, "baseline_archived_score": 70.87811484249687, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.487926376263893 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711892403.0948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711892403.0948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": -4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 322, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A March 7, 2024, [VentureBeat article](https://venturebeat.com/ai/nist-staffers-revolt-against-potential-appointment-of-effective-altruist-ai-researcher-to-us-ai-safety-institute/) claimed that AI safety researcher [Paul Christiano](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Christiano_(researcher)) was expected to be appointed to a role at a newly announced branch of the US [National Institute of Standards and Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Institute_of_Standards_and_Technology) (NIST) known as the US [Artificial Intelligence Safety Institute](https://www.nist.gov/artificial-intelligence/artificial-intelligence-safety-institute) (USAISI). The article claimed that Christiano's expected appointment had upset some NIST staff members and led some staff members to threaten to resign. 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Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut has [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK; limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as [an \"e-money institution\" in the UK](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/).\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes into one](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/). However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6). \n\nAdditional resource: \nFrom the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if Revolut secures a [banking license](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), either directly or through indirect means such as authorisation to acquire another bank or company already holding a UK banking license.\n\nThe question resolves based on any formal announcement from the FCA (or other UK regulatory entity able to grant a banking license) or from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Revolut will be obtaining a banking license. This must be a full license (i.e. not a provisional one).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21860, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735378734.789805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735378734.789805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.16833104144336625 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.807478630680944, 2.272714441128051, 0.0, 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 1.2612160510950288, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6266510951429458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6341865087632201, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12257655399756638, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.45635432297996037 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -112.31725483575475, "peer_score": 53.87550706562584, "coverage": 0.9996337978270522, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996337978270522, "spot_peer_score": 20.680896318015883, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "baseline_archived_score": -112.31725483575475, "peer_archived_score": 53.87550706562584, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 20.680896318015883, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289296.561902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289296.561902, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5049005826228109, 0.4950994173771891 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 123, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded, neobrokers like [Robinhood](https://robinhood.com/gb/en/) or [Freetrade](https://freetrade.io/) have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like [Nubank](https://international.nubank.com.br/about/), which is currently valued over 100B$, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in LatAm. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\n[Revolut](https://revolut.com/) has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut has [a banking licence for the EEA (European Economic Area), that was granted by the Bank of Lithuania](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/). However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK; limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as [an \"e-money institution\" in the UK](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/).\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes into one](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/). However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6). \n\nAdditional resource: \nFrom the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)" }, { "id": 21856, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Iran Has No Nuclear Weapon on July 31, 2025", "url_title": "Iran Has No Nuclear Weapon on July 31, 2025", "slug": "iran-has-no-nuclear-weapon-on-july-31-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [ { "id": 164919, "username": "srid" }, { "id": 123948, "username": "pedroacosta" } ], "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:26:52.362513Z", "published_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.669862Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-21T17:48:26.300664Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-02T11:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, 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"created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3053, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Bryan Caplan Collection", "slug": "caplan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/caplan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-21T17:20:44Z", "close_date": "2045-12-31T18:54:44Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-11T21:54:44.996242Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T22:06:25.646990Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21856, "title": "Will Bryan Caplan win his bet that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-12T04:26:52.362513Z", "open_time": "2024-03-21T17:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-24T17:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-07-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-08-02T11:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-08-02T11:12:02.321641Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-07-30T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal’s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet. Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John’s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John’s choice). If this happens, I immediately owe him $100. Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "*This question belongs to the Bryan Caplan Collection, a series based on bets by economist Bryan Caplan. Find the rest of the series [here](https://www.metaculus.com/project/3053/) and Caplan's bet inventory covering most series questions [here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1qShKedFJptpxfTHl9MBtHARAiurX-WK6ChrMgQRQz-0/edit).*\n\n*Note that this wager was offered by Bryan Caplan, but it does not appear in the bets wiki.**\n\n**Questions in this series resolve according to the outcome of Bryan Caplan's wager, where a resolution of 'Yes' reflects Caplan winning the bet. Questions resolve per public statements by Caplan.**\n\n---\n\nFor this question, a resolution of YES reflects that Caplan won his bet that: Iran does not possess a nuclear weapon on July 31, 2025. \n\nIf Caplan does not announce the outcome, this question resolves per reporting in the New York Times or Wall Street Journal.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21856, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1753855901.287836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1753855901.287836, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9648865225309003 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016079834428119808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08734309772970561, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005868104256488185, 0.0004992891021050837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017185793486399002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08368886882568978, 0.8384708239380203, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04809577689274304, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.06813627848605193, 0.0, 0.9485845595586091, 0.05952447646170147, 0.3131471740787339, 0.010028489695676875, 0.036486146261818564, 0.24558486999728796, 0.1146751907262134, 0.1293948440529297, 1.5815367765813075, 11.064071207616948 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 88.49189608627637, "peer_score": 9.792317103002976, "coverage": 0.9999937158286569, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999937158286569, "spot_peer_score": 13.916623502686862, "spot_baseline_score": 79.90873060740036, "baseline_archived_score": 88.49189608627637, "peer_archived_score": 9.792317103002976, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.916623502686862, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 79.90873060740036 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287769.520233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287769.520233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.11383012133477677, 0.8861698786652232 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 236, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**The original wager for this question appeared [here](https://www.betonit.ai/p/nuclear_iran_behtml?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Fbet&utm_medium=reader2) and was offered to John Podhoretz on July 28, 2015 at 10:1 odds favoring Caplan**\n\n----------\n\nCaplan writes:\n\n>John Podhoretz:\n\n>\"The United States and its allies have struck a deal with Iran that\neffectively ensures that it will be a nuclear state with ballistic\nmissiles in 10 years, assuming Iran adheres to the deal’s terms, which\nis a very large assumption.\"\n\n>Such supreme confidence cries out for a bet. Draft terms: John gives me 10:1 odds that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by July 31, 2025 according to (a) any major U.S. newspaper (NYT, WSJ, up to three others of John’s choice) or (b) any major international agency (Atomic Energy Commission, U.N., up to three others of John’s choice). If this happens, I immediately owe him $100. Otherwise, he owes me $1000 on August 1, 2025." }, { "id": 21829, "title": "Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?", "short_title": "Soft tosser wins the Cy Young before 2036?", "url_title": "Soft tosser wins the Cy Young before 2036?", "slug": "soft-tosser-wins-the-cy-young-before-2036", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-11T08:42:55.028235Z", "published_at": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.075736Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 7, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21829, "title": "Will an MLB pitcher who averages 91.0 mph or slower on his fastball win the Cy Young Award before the 2036 MLB season?", "created_at": "2024-03-11T08:42:55.028235Z", "open_time": "2024-04-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T19:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-03-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.\n\nAmong the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as \"fireballers\" or \"flamethrowers\"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.\n\nRecent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).\n\nFor perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).\n\nMoreover, there has been an \"epidemic\" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves YES if a Cy Young Award winner, as officially announced by Major League Baseball or the Baseball Writers' Association of America, has a reported fastball velocity lower than 91.0 mph.\n\nThe source of the players' stat is MLB Statcast or a successor system; absent that, the most reliable alternative can be used. What counts is whatever definition of \"fastball velocity\" the system uses at the time.\n\nIf there is no such stat reported by the reference system, what will be used is, to the best possible approximation if needed, the average of the four-seam fastball and the \"sinker\" or two-seam fastball. This average is weighted by number of pitches and excludes cut and split-finger fastballs.", "fine_print": "All of the following conditions need to be true for this question to resolve conclusively (YES or NO):\n\n- there is an award that is the Cy Young or some other distinction given for being the best pitcher.\n- the award is given to both the AL and the NL; if league composition or structure changes, the number of teams playing in a season divided by the number of awardees must be \\10 <= n <= 20\\.\n- the award does not discriminate on the basis of left-handedness like the [Warren Spahn](https://oklahomasportshalloffame.org/warren-spahn-award), overcoming adversity like the [Tony Conigliaro](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tony_Conigliaro_Award), or other criteria such as gender. However, de facto discrimination against relief pitchers is acceptable, since that is the status quo as of question creation.\n- specifically to resolve NO, this award must have been given for 8 or more seasons of MLB or a clear successor league in which the winning pitcher's team has played at least 50 games.\n\nIf any of the conditions above does not hold, the question is *Annulled*.\n\nA female or non-binary pitcher winning the award fulfilling the conditions of the question resolves it YES.", "post_id": 21829, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758111282.793985, "end_time": 1758864872.611587, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.269 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758111282.793985, "end_time": 1758864872.611587, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.269 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.731, 0.269 ], "means": [ 0.2627529315973739 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9245473462071343, 1.0, 0.7649466451949238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287886.496938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287886.496938, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8859588349076674, 0.11404116509233263 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Cy Young Award is the most prestigious award exclusively available to pitchers in Major League Baseball.\n\nAmong the various types of throws a pitcher can make is the fastball. Its velocity is correlated with pitcher success as measured by strikeout rate. Pitchers who can throw at exceptional speeds are known as \"fireballers\" or \"flamethrowers\"; players whose throws go slower have to rely more on locating their pitches, changing speeds, and using breaking balls. Fastball velocity has been steadily rising throughout the 2010s.\n\nRecent Cy Young Award winners who would trigger positive resolution are [Rick Porcello (2016 AL, 90.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/rick-porcello-519144?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) [Dallas Keuchel (2015 AL, 89.9 mph)](https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/dallas-keuchel-572971?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb) R.A. Dickey (2012 NL), and Brandon Webb (2006).\n\nFor perspective, other soft-tossers who have successful seasons are Clayton Kershaw (2023, 90.7 mph, 10th percentile in MLB) and Hyun Jin Ryu (2019, 90.5 mph, 14th percentile). To illustrate the league-wide increase in fastball velocity, Rick Porcello's was in the 21st percentile in 2016 (90.9 mph) and Dallas Keuchel was in the 15th percentile in 2015 (89.9 mph).\n\nMoreover, there has been an \"epidemic\" of pitcher arm injuries in Major League Baseball. The most common injury is a tear of the elbow's ulnar collateral ligament; recovery from the surgery to fix it usually takes more than a year. [Many observers](https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39900377/mlb-pitching-injuries-tommy-john-issue-shane-bieber-spencer-strider-eury-perez) attribute the injuries to harder and maximum-effort throwing, even though team managers restrict the amount of competitive innings their pitchers throw." }, { "id": 21821, "title": "Will China have placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List before 2030?", "short_title": "Five US Corps. in China's UEL?", "url_title": "Five US Corps. in China's UEL?", "slug": "five-us-corps-in-chinas-uel", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-10T16:24:31.229412Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.983859Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21821, "title": "Will China have placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-10T16:24:31.229412Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-05T22:55:55.377877Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-20T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February 2023, China’s Ministry of Commerce used its Unreliable Entities List (UEL) for the first time, placing Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, two aerospace R&D companies with heavy contracting ties to the U.S. military, onto this list as part of the ongoing [US-China trade war](https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/in-u-s-china-trade-war-bystander-countries-increase-exports/). The notice issued announced the following measures against these companies/entities ([Pan & Tan, 2023](https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/china-added-two-us-companies-to-the-unreliable-entities-list/)):\n\n> - prohibition on import and export activities involving China;<br />\n> - prohibition on new investment in China;<br />\n> - denial of entry into China of the senior executives of these entities;<br />\n> - denial or revocation of Chinese work permits, or right to stay or reside in China granted to the senior executives of these entities; and<br />\n> - financial penalty on each of these entities equivalent to two times the value of arms sales made to Taiwan since the date of issuance of the UEL Regulations (i.e., September 19, 2020), payable within 15 days of the announcement, failing which additional penalty may be imposed", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has placed 5 or more U.S. companies onto its Unreliable Entities List (UEL), according to credible reports, and **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "- A U.S. company is one that is headquartered in the U.S.\n- A U.S. company that is placed on China’s UEL but later removed still counts as one company towards resolution.\n- Since two U.S. companies, Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, have already been placed on the UEL, this question resolves as Yes if three more U.S. companies are added to the list.", "post_id": 21821, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741150595.065791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741150595.065791, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9009972219719065 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5959763164813908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18626999960102558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.75374690789505, 1.2251319105471636, 0.0, 0.0, 1.632797146381482 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 1.2263857435023988, "peer_score": 0.0428259880462685, "coverage": 0.015219900888873789, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9986611870640427, "spot_peer_score": 37.36950481733895, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 1.2263857435023988, "peer_archived_score": 0.0428259880462685, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.36950481733895, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287855.499744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287855.499744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.10910434419864234, 0.8908956558013577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February 2023, China’s Ministry of Commerce used its Unreliable Entities List (UEL) for the first time, placing Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, two aerospace R&D companies with heavy contracting ties to the U.S. military, onto this list as part of the ongoing [US-China trade war](https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/in-u-s-china-trade-war-bystander-countries-increase-exports/). The notice issued announced the following measures against these companies/entities ([Pan & Tan, 2023](https://sanctionsnews.bakermckenzie.com/china-added-two-us-companies-to-the-unreliable-entities-list/)):\n\n> - prohibition on import and export activities involving China;<br />\n> - prohibition on new investment in China;<br />\n> - denial of entry into China of the senior executives of these entities;<br />\n> - denial or revocation of Chinese work permits, or right to stay or reside in China granted to the senior executives of these entities; and<br />\n> - financial penalty on each of these entities equivalent to two times the value of arms sales made to Taiwan since the date of issuance of the UEL Regulations (i.e., September 19, 2020), payable within 15 days of the announcement, failing which additional penalty may be imposed" }, { "id": 21805, "title": "Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?", "short_title": "Chinese Cyberattack on Taiwan Grid by 2030?", "url_title": "Chinese Cyberattack on Taiwan Grid by 2030?", "slug": "chinese-cyberattack-on-taiwan-grid-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-09T18:16:36.347244Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.261870Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21805, "title": "Will China carry out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-09T18:16:36.347244Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure.\n\nAs context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure that causes loss of electricity for at least 10,000 people for at least 1 day. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The affected infrastructure must be physically located in Taiwan—that is, it may not simply be an asset owned by a Taiwanese national and located abroad. As such, the affected entity must be within 40 kilometers of the island to qualify. \n\nThe attribution of the attack must be issued by either i) the United States, a [Five Eyes nation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five_Eyes), or a NATO member, or ii) a reputable cybersecurity company or research organization.^ Attribution must be formal—i.e. in an on-the-record speech or in writing. A publication that uses phrases such as “China is suspected,\" or \"China is possibly,” or “China is likely” will not trigger Yes resolution. \n\n“Chinese actors” can include state or non-state actors within China. To be acting within the Chinese mainland is to be considered within the state’s internationally recognized land or naval borders. \n\nThis question will resolve based on public information available before January 1, 2030.<br /><br />\n\n^Metaculus admins will a judgment call on whether the company or organization in question counts as “reputable” in case of contention.", "post_id": 21805, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756864894.057841, "end_time": 1761234481.9388, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756864894.057841, "end_time": 1761234481.9388, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5452756856463763 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1341757537316506, 0.011325021621769293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.735125584733241, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030784600481361255, 0.3343470039728833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004166242625470988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4763617703710845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04225147949949812, 0.7143009088405214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3222052547484691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06462956491704921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07074588023737957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4789409092720612, 0.0, 0.20561265148349345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5971259243485516, 0.0, 0.6183252296339623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9752113662861539, 0.14984332909134115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5550960640691049, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.07369964090399271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02593106589452041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3619264425410345, 0.0, 0.4387232613217865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04896551112574321 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289277.829085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289277.829085, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7849128833650936, 0.21508711663490637 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 78, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2021, the Taiwanese Defense Minister warned that tensions between Taiwan and China—which has repeatedly claimed that Taiwan is part of its territory—were at a [40-year high](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-58812100). And between [trade](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [restrictions](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/) and [air defense zone incursions](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21801/taiwan-adiz-violations/#:~:text=Relations%20have%20grown%20worse%20over%20recent%20years%3A%20in%202021%20there%20were%2021%20days%20of%20%E2%80%9Creactionary%E2%80%9D%20air%20incursions%2C%20while%20in%202022%20there%20were%2055%2C%20and%20in%202023%20there%20were%2064%20(Brown%20%26%20Lewis%2C%202024).), relations between China and Taiwan have taken a turn for the worse since then. This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation, namely, that China carries out a cyberattack on Taiwan’s electricity infrastructure.\n\nAs context, assistant professor Chen Yi-fan from Taiwan's Tamkang University has suggested that [cyberattacks could precede a Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.voanews.com/a/how-china-could-cyberattack-taiwan/6349594.html), making the invasion less costly on Chinese resources." }, { "id": 21804, "title": "Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?", "short_title": "China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?", "url_title": "China bans imports from Taiwan by 2030?", "slug": "china-bans-imports-from-taiwan-by-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-09T17:57:10.507830Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.435144Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21804, "title": "Will China ban all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-09T17:57:10.507830Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As part of generally deteriorating relations, China and Taiwan have been playing something of a tit-for-tat trade restrictions game over [recent](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [months](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/). This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation in this game.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, China bans all imports from Taiwan, except for electronic parts/inputs, according to credible reports. This question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The clause about electronic parts/inputs is to account for the fact that Taiwan is the world’s leading manufacturer of cutting edge [AI chips](https://cset.georgetown.edu/publication/ai-chips-what-they-are-and-why-they-matter/), which China is keen to get their hands on as part of the so-called [AI](https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/the-ai-race-with-the-prc-what-is-to-be-done/) [race](https://cset.georgetown.edu/article/whos-winning-the-ai-race-its-not-that-simple/). The question resolves as Yes if i) China bans all imports from Taiwan, or ii) China bans all imports from Taiwan except for some—but not necessarily all—electronic parts/inputs.", "post_id": 21804, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756864872.452308, "end_time": 1761234386.923239, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756864872.452308, "end_time": 1761234386.923239, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.10754741213860879 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.727941562124288, 2.445886122987531, 0.06785272307040267, 0.46737119091978374, 0.0, 0.5670486739636473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03777143320256801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5013675772324113, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288567.797698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288567.797698, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.992671558150316, 0.007328441849683955 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 37, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As part of generally deteriorating relations, China and Taiwan have been playing something of a tit-for-tat trade restrictions game over [recent](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-12-15/china-determines-taiwan-s-ban-on-mainland-goods-is-trade-barrier) [months](https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-lifts-ban-taiwanese-grouper-fish-imports-carrot-stick-diplomacy-2023-12-22/). This question asks about the possibility of a major escalation in this game." }, { "id": 21798, "title": "Will a second US state adopt a unicameral legislature before January 1, 2050?", "short_title": "Second Unicameral US State Legislature", "url_title": "Second Unicameral US State Legislature", "slug": "second-unicameral-us-state-legislature", "author_id": 106702, "author_username": "homa_rano", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-08T22:18:46.498084Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:08:12.918503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21798, "title": "Will a second US state adopt a unicameral legislature before January 1, 2050?", "created_at": "2024-03-08T22:18:46.498084Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T13:21:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-08T13:21:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-08T13:21:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T05:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral legislatures: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and later Vermont. All of them switched to a bicameral system by 1836. Just as in the federal constitution, usually the lower house is elected from even-population districts but the upper house is chosen from fixed districts such as counties.\n\nIn 1937, [Nebraska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska_Legislature#History) became the first state to eliminate its upper chamber and adopt a unicameral legislature.\n\nIn 1964, the US Supreme Court issued its ruling in [Reynolds v Sims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_v._Sims), which ruled that all state legislative districts must be roughly proportional by population. This caused all 49 other states to have two chambers that were both elected from even-population districts.\n\nIn recent history there have been other states with unsuccessful campaigns to switch to unicameralism. Governor Jesse Ventura advocated for it in 1999 in [Minnesota](https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=uni), but it failed to pass the legislature to be put on the ballot. In 2006 a petition to put unicameralism on the ballot in Michigan failed to get enough signatures to qualify. In 2023, a bill was [introduced](https://www.pressherald.com/2023/05/08/state-lawmaker-calls-for-sweeping-review-of-maine-constitution/) in Maine to create a bipartisan commission to study a unicameral legislature among other reforms.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if a US state other than Nebraska changes its legislative branch to a unicameral legislature, for any duration, and then elects and seats this legislature before January 1, 2050. This change can be established through a change to its constitution or any other action that results in the establishment, election and seating of a unicameral legislature. \n\nResolves based on state government announcements or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21798, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639282.388456, "end_time": 1789175283.954, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.292 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639282.388456, "end_time": 1789175283.954, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.292 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.3892389851530013 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5771962254806279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289684.96899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289684.96899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8543166148985823, 0.14568338510141768 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "All US states were created with state constitutions that parallel the federal constitution in important structural ways, notably by having two separate chambers of the legislature. Some early colonies were initially established with unicameral legislatures: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and later Vermont. All of them switched to a bicameral system by 1836. Just as in the federal constitution, usually the lower house is elected from even-population districts but the upper house is chosen from fixed districts such as counties.\n\nIn 1937, [Nebraska](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nebraska_Legislature#History) became the first state to eliminate its upper chamber and adopt a unicameral legislature.\n\nIn 1964, the US Supreme Court issued its ruling in [Reynolds v Sims](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reynolds_v._Sims), which ruled that all state legislative districts must be roughly proportional by population. This caused all 49 other states to have two chambers that were both elected from even-population districts.\n\nIn recent history there have been other states with unsuccessful campaigns to switch to unicameralism. Governor Jesse Ventura advocated for it in 1999 in [Minnesota](https://www.lrl.mn.gov/guides/guides?issue=uni), but it failed to pass the legislature to be put on the ballot. In 2006 a petition to put unicameralism on the ballot in Michigan failed to get enough signatures to qualify. In 2023, a bill was [introduced](https://www.pressherald.com/2023/05/08/state-lawmaker-calls-for-sweeping-review-of-maine-constitution/) in Maine to create a bipartisan commission to study a unicameral legislature among other reforms." }, { "id": 21796, "title": "Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?", "short_title": "US TikTok ban or forced sale?", "url_title": "US TikTok ban or forced sale?", "slug": "us-tiktok-ban-or-forced-sale", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-08T12:13:38.016027Z", "published_at": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.986085Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 107, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21796, "title": "Will the United States government either ban TikTok or force a sale before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-08T12:13:38.016027Z", "open_time": "2024-03-08T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-11T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-24T15:13:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the [\"Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the [\"Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7521). These two bills, if passed and sign into law, would prevent applications from being available in US app stores or web hosting services when those applications are subject to the control of a foreign adversary, as defined by Congress in Title 10. This would include TikTok, currently owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company.\n\nThe bills also create a process for apps to remain on US app stores and web hosting services if they sever ties to entities subject to the control of a foreign adversary through divestment. This suggests that these laws, if passed, would require ByteDance to sell off TikTok or face it being banned in the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as *Yes* if, before January 1, 2025, credible sources report that the US government has taken action, through an enacted law or executive order, with at least one of the following effects:\n\n* Forces a sale of US-facing components of TikTok effective in 365 days or less relative to the date of the act being signed into law or the executive order being published.\n\n* Prevents the TikTok mobile app from being available in the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store", "fine_print": "For this question to resolve Yes, the media reporting must be in consensus that these effects are highly likely as the result of the law or executive order. These effects need not actually happen for the question to resolve Yes. Metaculus admin discretion may be used to resolve this question in the result of ambiguity.\n\nIf sources report that the law or executive order could be contested in the courts, the question will still resolve as Yes if, absent court challenges, it would satisfy the criteria described here.\n\nIf the TikTok app can be downloaded via a technical circumvention that violates the app store terms of service, this would not affect resolution of the question and the question can still resolve Yes.\n\nIf US users can still access TikTok if it was previously downloaded, this would not affect resolution and the question can still resolve Yes. That is, the app need not be forcibly uninstalled from users devices, only that it can no longer be supported by both the Google Play Store and the iOS App Store.", "post_id": 21796, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713971910.311456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713971910.311456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 107, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9478586212890935 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0011156475673499428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019429627340779368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006464075098986488, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.032847580080174237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020997755364407625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010964104844829023, 0.014103702851542069, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005273500427426623, 0.0, 0.012983441907495109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08979806954216327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20822916615838943, 0.29892610785209667, 0.013413369271493218, 0.0003727544410870008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12410077022845545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024457194516846498, 0.016587888897395042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004535844344508773, 0.0, 0.04105382078361315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000760295965181982, 0.48140431813771967, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08481652188382591, 0.30530127910624005, 0.0, 0.004776341353411186, 0.030678223148784864, 0.0, 0.2911191768565242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06974324666886308, 0.0, 0.13040392920671862, 0.003146373567248406, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5229140744275282, 0.9022446465210998, 0.792510977695145, 0.400075034275845, 0.6296575351921092, 12.606922459291333 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.7636801725774403, "coverage": 0.15688130989413812, "baseline_score": 8.048716224560193, "spot_peer_score": 45.316559203539235, "peer_archived_score": 2.7636801725774403, "baseline_archived_score": 8.048716224560193, "spot_peer_archived_score": 45.316559203539235 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1713946574.498626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1713946574.498626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 106, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.13264152165706034, 0.8673584783429397 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 21, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 410, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On March 7, the House Energy and Commerce Committee unanimously advanced two pieces legislation both on a 50-0 vote - the [\"Protecting Americans’ Data from Foreign Adversaries Act of 2024\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7520?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7520) and the [\"Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act\"](https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7521?s=1&r=1) (H.R. 7521). These two bills, if passed and sign into law, would prevent applications from being available in US app stores or web hosting services when those applications are subject to the control of a foreign adversary, as defined by Congress in Title 10. This would include TikTok, currently owned by ByteDance, a Chinese company.\n\nThe bills also create a process for apps to remain on US app stores and web hosting services if they sever ties to entities subject to the control of a foreign adversary through divestment. This suggests that these laws, if passed, would require ByteDance to sell off TikTok or face it being banned in the United States." }, { "id": 21792, "title": "Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?", "short_title": "China-Philippine Vessel Clash Before April 1?", "url_title": "China-Philippine Vessel Clash Before April 1?", "slug": "china-philippine-vessel-clash-before-april-1", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-06T19:49:46.236629Z", "published_at": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.974936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 82, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21792, "title": "Will there be a new confrontation between Chinese and Philippine military vessels before April 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-06T19:49:46.236629Z", "open_time": "2024-03-07T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-10T01:45:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-10T01:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-23T00:10:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Territorial disputes over the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) have led to high tensions between China and a number of regional countries, including the Philippines. On March 5, 2024, [Chinese and Philippine military vessels collided](https://apnews.com/article/philippines-china-south-china-sea-collision-e69d9506e85d1d23685db4f220b50d71) during a Philippine resupply mission to an outpost in the South China Sea, and Chinese vessels sprayed water cannons at the Philippine vessels.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after March 6, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, credible sources report a new confrontation has occurred between Chinese and Philippine military vessels. A confrontation will be considered to be one where vessels collide or weapons, including water cannons, are used by one side against the other, and will not include aggressive behavior where no physical contact or use of weapons.", "fine_print": "A military vessel will be considered to be any vessel operating as part of a military operation, which could include civilian ships being contracted for military purposes that are escorted by military vessels. The Coast Guards of each country will be included, as will China's [Maritime Militia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Militia_(China)).", "post_id": 21792, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711366161.076662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711366161.076662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.8214866415002302 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.03153587526592278, 0.09683439459933388, 0.11181352106447921, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0945888962421087, 0.08472672494951185, 0.006299682402418756, 0.043483479997278966, 0.0, 0.09281559947471334, 0.0, 0.003928914836847643, 0.07920201454787276, 0.0, 0.0849874406952294, 0.003460269966480128, 0.030323138375930973, 0.043444640796242134, 0.015697917683711572, 0.5234046987406509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005007836331890419, 0.0015459354590729806, 0.042381569481501985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01836130201295985, 0.0, 0.0117915453441316, 0.0008334788163558859, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12256642604463365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6511869951896028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.162319589937105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17743652524731277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29148458645309366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000295991905056472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6883739512178384, 0.0, 0.06830738353597367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1663892557059332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7666127313093721, 1.948798308361659, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.336774649844069, 0.0, 0.6465806538160507, 0.5477212059366546, 6.581924289803026 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.972628347449263, "coverage": 0.6328678735264385, "baseline_score": -83.98300668630456, "spot_peer_score": 38.98453073224914, "peer_archived_score": 17.972628347449263, "baseline_archived_score": -83.98300668630456, "spot_peer_archived_score": 38.98453073224914 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711144522.831741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711144522.831741, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 82, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9886291830449858, 0.011370816955014148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 248, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Territorial disputes over the South China Sea](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territorial_disputes_in_the_South_China_Sea) have led to high tensions between China and a number of regional countries, including the Philippines. 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Haiti has seen [significant unrest recently](https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1), as gangs have freed thousands of prisoners from prisons and attempted to seize control of Haiti's main international airport.\n\nHaiti's Acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has faced [an increased threat to his position](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21405/ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april/) as unrest has grown. Henry has been traveling outside the country recently, leading to speculation as to whether he is intentionally avoiding returning home. [According to ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gangs-plunge-haiti-anarchy-people-world-prime-minister-107814828):\n\n>The embattled leader, who assumed power following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, has been notably absent since the country's latest and most serious outbreak of violence started last week. Henry has stayed silent as he crisscrosses the world, from South America to Africa, with no announced date of return.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 13, 2024, credible sources report that Ariel Henry has returned to Haiti.", "fine_print": "* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 21789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710276567.489779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710276567.489779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.013191962175524194 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.94033323596924, 7.8019953289608095, 0.4904499673655099, 0.20566286060455888, 0.052357273169668164, 0.8093258194940198, 0.05692018101548274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017816650318877032, 0.015157278973843901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05808646440228038, 0.002949293081317581, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.03797729984260407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008568413763270113 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.649539932795506, "coverage": 0.9997354795585143, "baseline_score": 84.61476610044019, "spot_peer_score": 33.977524546624856, "peer_archived_score": 16.649539932795506, "baseline_archived_score": 84.61476610044019, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.977524546624856 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710276567.518998, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710276567.518998, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 176, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Haiti has seen [significant unrest recently](https://apnews.com/article/haiti-violence-prison-break-curfew-105ca137aa337b9e6681cf87add9a5c1), as gangs have freed thousands of prisoners from prisons and attempted to seize control of Haiti's main international airport.\n\nHaiti's Acting Prime Minister, Ariel Henry, has faced [an increased threat to his position](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21405/ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april/) as unrest has grown. Henry has been traveling outside the country recently, leading to speculation as to whether he is intentionally avoiding returning home. [According to ABC News](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/gangs-plunge-haiti-anarchy-people-world-prime-minister-107814828):\n\n>The embattled leader, who assumed power following the 2021 assassination of President Jovenel Moïse, has been notably absent since the country's latest and most serious outbreak of violence started last week. Henry has stayed silent as he crisscrosses the world, from South America to Africa, with no announced date of return." }, { "id": 21782, "title": "Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?", "short_title": "US SLCM 2030", "url_title": "US SLCM 2030", "slug": "us-slcm-2030", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-04T21:31:17.269348Z", "published_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.160043Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:37:51.633406Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21782, "title": "Will the U.S. reinstate its nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile program before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-03-04T21:31:17.269348Z", "open_time": "2024-04-18T17:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-06-07T01:23:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US has had a hot and cold relationship with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). The US first fielded these weapons in the 1980s, but between 2010 and 2013, under the Obama Administration, the Navy fully retired them. The Trump Administration reversed this decision in 2018, however, partly in response to Russia violating the [INF treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty), and partly to provide “a needed non-strategic regional presence” around Taiwan ([Congressional Research Service, 2022](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12084)) by funding R&D into new nuclear-armed SLCM, known as SLCM-N. However, five years later, in 2023, the Biden Administration [canceled SLCM-N funding](https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/biden-administration-kills-trump-era-nuclear-cruise-missile-program/).\n\nIn the face of rising tensions with China in the Taiwan Strait, this question asks about whether the US will make yet another U-turn regarding SLCMs.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2030, credible reports state that the US military has resumed funding for nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missile R&D. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21782, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723076796.933506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723076796.933506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.77 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8346660170370076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6763049828717671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22781833750170227, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44155902713467954, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.12403378248661255, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.39738560315786137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30413601865739065, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.274748066494196 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.3415656620773755, "coverage": 0.02271284683486434, "baseline_score": 0.8494241687139776, "spot_peer_score": 0.18921481520376512, "peer_archived_score": 0.3415656620773755, "baseline_archived_score": 0.8494241687139776, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.18921481520376512 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717659435.096909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717659435.096909, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5138016230980642, 0.4861983769019358 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 12, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US has had a hot and cold relationship with nuclear-armed sea-launched cruise missiles (SLCMs). The US first fielded these weapons in the 1980s, but between 2010 and 2013, under the Obama Administration, the Navy fully retired them. The Trump Administration reversed this decision in 2018, however, partly in response to Russia violating the [INF treaty](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intermediate-Range_Nuclear_Forces_Treaty), and partly to provide “a needed non-strategic regional presence” around Taiwan ([Congressional Research Service, 2022](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12084)) by funding R&D into new nuclear-armed SLCM, known as SLCM-N. However, five years later, in 2023, the Biden Administration [canceled SLCM-N funding](https://breakingdefense.com/2022/03/biden-administration-kills-trump-era-nuclear-cruise-missile-program/).\n\nIn the face of rising tensions with China in the Taiwan Strait, this question asks about whether the US will make yet another U-turn regarding SLCMs." } ] }
