Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2760
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2780", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2740", "results": [ { "id": 21774, "title": "If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?", "short_title": "Nikki Haley to endorse Donald Trump?", "url_title": "Nikki Haley to endorse Donald Trump?", "slug": "nikki-haley-to-endorse-donald-trump", "author_id": 120949, "author_username": "freddie.poser", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-03T17:43:57.809081Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.718320Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21774, "title": "If Donald Trump wins the Republican nomination, will Nikki Haley endorse him before November 5th, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-03-03T17:43:57.809081Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:44:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T00:44:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T00:44:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-22T20:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1764294831134687242).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Nikki Haley announces that she will vote for, or is encouraging other people to vote for, Donald Trump in the 2024 US Presidential Election.\n\nIf Donald Trump is not the Republican nominee, this question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716414779.287754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716414779.287754, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.609073018788599 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017823678094023753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028636604341700815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6360167605213904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6418875879696253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007784236121081673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10299458082921686, 0.0, 0.2519740871949554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09222549710312164, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7033254791858186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.291617142551885, 0.1274765214171608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5315279044086303, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7593540370033087, 0.800591043524475, 0.0, 0.2758521521053194, 0.7362285007915425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2428872732665939, 0.07331325067154816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13910653551201954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044423031630246905, 0.7421409634973282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014847804209650994, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9824377797881492 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.597500632967812, "coverage": 0.31951731672194844, "baseline_score": 12.144227607611565, "spot_peer_score": 44.858325633865455, "peer_archived_score": 8.597500632967812, "baseline_archived_score": 12.144227607611565, "spot_peer_archived_score": 44.858325633865455 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716363790.961626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716363790.961626, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33563964676589364, 0.6643603532341064 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 93, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump and Nikki Haley are both running for the Republican Party nomination for the 2024 US Presidential election. Traditionally defeated candidates for the nomination will endorse the party's candidate, [however Nikki Haley has cast doubt on weather she would](https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1764294831134687242)." }, { "id": 21761, "title": "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?", "short_title": "NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?", "url_title": "NATO Troops in Ukraine by 2027?", "slug": "nato-troops-in-ukraine-by-2027", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-02T15:37:38.200997Z", "published_at": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T09:22:52.270046Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 121, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21761, "title": "Will combat troops from NATO countries be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?", "created_at": "2024-03-02T15:37:38.200997Z", "open_time": "2024-03-15T15:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-18T15:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-18T15:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n\nNATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, credible media sources report that combat troops from NATO countries are physically and openly present in Ukraine (under its internationally recognized borders at the time such reports are made) in significant numbers.", "fine_print": "* \"Openly\" means with the open admission of either NATO as an organization, or the government(s) of the NATO member state(s) to which the unit belongs. Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, intelligence operatives, mercenaries, or private volunteers, will not resolve this question.\n* \"Physically\" requires the deployment of the unit, together with its combat equipment, as a coherent fighting force. Individual members (or small groups) of NATO units present to conduct training, intelligence, or similar tasks, rather than being deployed as a combat unit, will not resolve this question.\n* The unit must be unambiguously inside Ukraine; units merely \"patrolling the border\" from the outside, or similar, do not qualify.\n* The unit must be reported to be physically present in Ukraine for at least 7 consecutive days. Short-term raids or incursions not designed to be a prolonged physical presence will not resolve this question.\n* \"Significant numbers\" means the presence of at least 3,000 troops in total from all involved NATO countries, at least three full units the size of a battalion or regiment, or at least one full unit the size of a brigade or larger.\n* \"Combat troops\" means that the troops present are primarily equipped to take or hold physical ground, regardless of their military branch or specialty (e.g. infantry or armor would both quality.) For the purposes of this question, it excludes units primarily described as special forces, intelligence operatives, military advisors, air, anti-air, or naval units, or non-combat units.\n* A unit must only come from one or more NATO countries to resolve this question, even if operating unilaterally under national flag(s). NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be invoked.\n* The purpose, operations, or rules of engagement of such unit(s) bears no relevance to the resolution of this question. They are not required to engage Russia, only to be physically present in any part of Ukraine.\n* The (formal or informal) acknowledgement or consent to such a presence of either Russia or Ukraine bears no resolution on this question. The only acknowledgement required is by the NATO member state(s) deploying such troops.\n* If credible sources report Ukraine to no longer exist as an internationally recognized sovereign state prior to the resolution of this question, it will be resolved as \"no.\"", "post_id": 21761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758383733.014453, "end_time": 1758435681.707367, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.144 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758383733.014453, "end_time": 1758435681.707367, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.144 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.856, 0.144 ], "means": [ 0.2448496168463111 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5096691021748141, 0.693321300590686, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3392920768375332, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.3629323132973075, 1.1480199531380082, 0.8363767972402396, 0.13106055136950598, 0.6887440864752888, 1.077809839591509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0922328909489179, 0.48066753395180806, 0.09938042041544812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029744562688391502, 0.0, 0.544491379682425, 0.05647213919671424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03867372331461738, 0.24826285979550225, 0.0, 0.22636757933013923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11890323980894008, 0.0, 0.35569232295498787, 0.0, 0.051045984867428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7231248136457471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028115822550663413, 0.016045120613645693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1809392623709519, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16675237628327297, 0.0, 0.93823183834091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02077493900944314, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.879817146123457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1961236648474275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287970.868051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287970.868051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9163391235951144, 0.08366087640488562 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 335, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the Ukraine War, NATO has repeatedly claimed that it will not engage Russian troops directly in Ukraine for fear of a major escalation between nuclear powers. However, recent battlefield setbacks for Ukraine have increased the possibility of such presence. France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) [mentioned](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/) that intervention cannot be ruled out (although having later backtracked.) The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine.\n\nNATO (or any NATO member state) could choose to deploy troops in only those areas of Ukraine not contested by Russia, and such troops might be present in a deterrent or substitution role to allow releasing more Ukrainian troops to the front lines, while still intending to avoid a direct clash with Russia. As well, NATO may choose to be present in Ukraine as further deterrent after any peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, on territory still under Ukrainian control. Such presence might be with or without Russia's consent, and such consent might be formal or tacit." }, { "id": 21757, "title": "Will any political party in Indonesia that wasn't represented in the 2024-2029 House of Representatives (DPR) get any seats in the 2029 election?", "short_title": "New parties in Indonesian Parliament in 2029", "url_title": "New parties in Indonesian Parliament in 2029", "slug": "new-parties-in-indonesian-parliament-in-2029", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-02T06:34:13.832092Z", "published_at": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.595892Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-03-31T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-04-30T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21757, "title": "Will any political party in Indonesia that wasn't represented in the 2024-2029 House of Representatives (DPR) get any seats in the 2029 election?", "created_at": "2024-03-02T06:34:13.832092Z", "open_time": "2024-04-09T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-12T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-04-30T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-03-31T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-03-31T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "It has been announced that in 2024, [only 8 political parties](https://jdih.kpu.go.id/data/data_kepkpu/2024kpt360.pdf): Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, Golkar Party, Gerindra Party, National Awakening Party, Nasdem Party, Prosperous Justice Party, Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party got seats in the Indonesian DPR (the lower house of Parliament). This is not dissimilar from the parliamentary composition of the last DPR of 2020-2024. Meanwhile, there have been parties that got at least a million votes, yet still did not obtain seats (Indonesian Solidarity Party, Perindo Party, Gelora Party). Will any of these, or perhaps a complete newcomer, be able to obtain seats in the next election?", "resolution_criteria": "Resolve YES if it is announced that a party that was not in the indonesian DPR between 2024 and 2029 has obtained seats in the 2029 general election.", "fine_print": "If a new party is formed from a split of existing Parliamentary parties, so that the new party has seats in the DPR right from the start, then it does not count for resolving this question as YES.", "post_id": 21757, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1751953516.2386, "end_time": 1766066571.377991, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "centers": [ 0.273 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1751953516.2386, "end_time": 1766066571.377991, "forecaster_count": 3, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "centers": [ 0.273 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.727, 0.273 ], "means": [ 0.5972269968239172 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48092170020263214, 0.0, 0.7277212189012763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287078.659842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287078.659842, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8673575882230298, 0.13264241177697017 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 9, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "It has been announced that in 2024, [only 8 political parties](https://jdih.kpu.go.id/data/data_kepkpu/2024kpt360.pdf): Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, Golkar Party, Gerindra Party, National Awakening Party, Nasdem Party, Prosperous Justice Party, Democratic Party and the National Mandate Party got seats in the Indonesian DPR (the lower house of Parliament). This is not dissimilar from the parliamentary composition of the last DPR of 2020-2024. Meanwhile, there have been parties that got at least a million votes, yet still did not obtain seats (Indonesian Solidarity Party, Perindo Party, Gelora Party). Will any of these, or perhaps a complete newcomer, be able to obtain seats in the next election?" }, { "id": 21611, "title": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?", "short_title": "Spain Snap Election in 2024?", "url_title": "Spain Snap Election in 2024?", "slug": "spain-snap-election-in-2024", "author_id": 133447, "author_username": "pregonero.milenial", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-03-01T11:19:16.686018Z", "published_at": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.369520Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 52, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21611, "title": "Will Spain announce a snap general election before January 2025?", "created_at": "2024-03-01T11:19:16.686018Z", "open_time": "2024-03-23T16:04:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-26T16:04:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-26T16:04:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:18:55.557380Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Spanish democracy has a mechanism where the president can call a [snap election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election#Spain), described in Section 115 of the [Spanish constitution](https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/documents/constitucion_inglescorregido.pdf). The [last election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election) was held July 23, 2023, after [snap elections were called](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/spanish-prime-minister-calls-for-early-general-election.html). The [next Spanish general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election) is scheduled to be held by August of 2027, but potentially could be called much earlier.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a dissolution of the Spanish Congress has been announced, with a snap election called.", "fine_print": "The official act that counts for the resolution is a royal proclamation of dissolution. No other acts are required; in particular, the election date need not have been set or occurred yet. It is immaterial to the question whether some government is formed and collapses, or if no investiture is possible, as well as which government remains as caretaker.", "post_id": 21611, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735657241.390141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735657241.390141, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.015 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.029918345323340954 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.474157136341674, 3.3200921969779906, 0.2893506753269389, 0.3426424443372215, 0.1533679428866179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47550520209422537, 0.18527705034115113, 0.0, 0.13813119694791304, 0.43776641345902195, 0.16871148880955214, 0.12605111094439408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002308706629581291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798170450445946, 0.0, 0.13402947752393152, 0.023413487787231745, 0.0, 0.11504570910861234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007946689641207845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020064761700770095, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035814214006338115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017059162801949267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 84.6704844220104, "peer_score": 19.45393679330036, "coverage": 0.9994165320468968, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994165320468968, "spot_peer_score": 6.08026058467496, "spot_baseline_score": 42.22330006830476, "baseline_archived_score": 84.6704844220104, "peer_archived_score": 19.45393679330036, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.08026058467496, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 42.22330006830476 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289723.946562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289723.946562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9958948917562896, 0.004105108243710336 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 128, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Spanish democracy has a mechanism where the president can call a [snap election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snap_election#Spain), described in Section 115 of the [Spanish constitution](https://www.lamoncloa.gob.es/documents/constitucion_inglescorregido.pdf). The [last election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Spanish_general_election) was held July 23, 2023, after [snap elections were called](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/29/spanish-prime-minister-calls-for-early-general-election.html). The [next Spanish general election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Spanish_general_election) is scheduled to be held by August of 2027, but potentially could be called much earlier." }, { "id": 21553, "title": "Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "short_title": "AI causes 1K deaths or $200B loss?", "url_title": "AI causes 1K deaths or $200B loss?", "slug": "ai-causes-1k-deaths-or-200b-loss", "author_id": 100912, "author_username": "PeterWildeford", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-28T14:23:05.057107Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T22:56:48.171661Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21553, "title": "Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?", "created_at": "2024-02-28T14:23:05.057107Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T00:49:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T00:49:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T00:49:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilization in the coming centuries.\n\nAnthropic's [Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/1adf000c8f675958c2ee23805d91aaade1cd4613/responsible-scaling-policy.pdf) defines a \"catastrophic risk\" from AI as \"for\nexample, thousands of deaths or hundreds of billions of dollars in damage) that is directly caused by an AI model and wouldn’t have occurred without it\". In this question, we ask whether Anthropic's \"catastrophic risk\" threshold will be met within the next eight years.\n\nThis question is closely related to [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-before-2032/) but with a much higher threshold.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2032, there are three credible media reports indicating that there has been one or more events precipitated by AI malfunction which caused either 1000+ deaths or $200bn 2021 USD in economic damage.\n\nMultiple incidents stemming from the same source can count for the question to resolve as Yes. To be considered from the same source the incidents must be attributable to a specific flaw or version of an AI. For example, deaths from [a prior major version](https://techcrunch.com/2016/09/11/tesla-autopilot-8-0-uses-radar-to-prevent-accidents-like-the-fatal-model-s-crash/) of Tesla’s self-driving car software would not be summed with deaths attributable to later versions.\n\nTo count as _precipitated by AI malfunction_ an incident should involve an AI system behaving unexpectedly. An example could be if an AI system autonomously driving cars caused hundreds of deaths which would have been easily avoidable for human drivers, or if an AI system overseeing a hospital system took actions to cause patient deaths as a result of misinterpreting a goal to minimise bed usage.\n\nTo be considered easily avoidable an incident must not involve human negligence. For example, if a human is expected to monitor the AI and promptly intervene, a failure to intervene resulting in death or economic damage would not be considered attributable to an AI malfunction unless the AI malfunction was such that a human could not reasonably be expected to prevent it. If, for example, the [Boeing MCAS system](https://www.wikiwand.com/en/Maneuvering_Characteristics_Augmentation_System) had been an AI system and there was no possibility for the pilots to override its decision to lower the aeroplane nose, leading to a fatal crash, this would count for resolution.\n\nDeaths or damage caused by an AI's expected and intended behavior will not be included; for example, AIs used to target enemy combatants in war would be excluded, as well as AIs successfully performing a medical treatment as specified, despite the treatment causing harms that the doctors or designers were unaware of. An unexpected malfunction of an AI system used in war leading to collateral damage would qualify for the question to resolve as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "A system should be considered AI if it is widely considered to be AI (e.g. by the credible media reports resolving the question). If this is not sufficiently clear for resolution, then as a secondary criterion, any system using machine learning techniques which has an agentic role in the disaster in question should count for this question.\n\nEconomic damage will be considered to be expenses incurred by damage to physical or technological systems or by obstruction of productive output. For example, causing a power outage which leads to economic loss from affected businesses would count, while losing money in an AI-directed investment portfolio would not.", "post_id": 21553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757890597.705915, "end_time": 1759060103.973836, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757890597.705915, "end_time": 1759060103.973836, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.3598832369530766 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5614404435660437, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.2659211825430975, 0.19415781123874884, 0.3559187878370533, 0.0, 0.42855776383303873, 0.0, 0.08201692051667611, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.15685721197324565, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.22693964941495545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6307702662864131, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39086599043581904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9851024745681203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19512018820526095, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6646627317794116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5599024685085519, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287085.996636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287085.996636, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.884220149787119, 0.11577985021288097 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 77, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Risks from Artificial intelligence are considered by many to be one of the greatest threats to human civilization in the coming centuries.\n\nAnthropic's [Responsible Scaling Policy v1.0](https://www-cdn.anthropic.com/1adf000c8f675958c2ee23805d91aaade1cd4613/responsible-scaling-policy.pdf) defines a \"catastrophic risk\" from AI as \"for\nexample, thousands of deaths or hundreds of billions of dollars in damage) that is directly caused by an AI model and wouldn’t have occurred without it\". In this question, we ask whether Anthropic's \"catastrophic risk\" threshold will be met within the next eight years.\n\nThis question is closely related to [this other question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7814/ai-incident-causes-1bn-damage-before-2032/) but with a much higher threshold." }, { "id": 21550, "title": "Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?", "short_title": "2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?", "url_title": "2024 US Election Winner to Win Popular Vote?", "slug": "2024-us-election-winner-to-win-popular-vote", "author_id": 168191, "author_username": "ADQ", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-28T04:57:25.392464Z", "published_at": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.086954Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "comment_count": 17, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 93, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21550, "title": "Will the winner of the 2024 United States presidential election win the popular vote?", "created_at": "2024-02-28T04:57:25.392464Z", "open_time": "2024-03-11T14:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-14T14:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-14T14:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T01:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T20:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T20:16:09.030304Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-04T01:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College).\n\n\nIn December the electors will cast their votes for the President. In January, Congress counts and certifies these votes to determine who will be elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes the president will be decided by the [United States House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) in a [contingent election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election).\n\nSince the inception of the United States, [five elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote) have resulted in the winner losing the popular vote.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as **No**.\n\nIt will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority.", "fine_print": "If the 2024 United States presidential election is not held or if congress does not certify the vote by February 1, 2025 the question will resolve as **ambiguous**.\n\nThe popular vote will be determined by the official vote count provided by the Federal Election Commission.", "post_id": 21550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730658111.394492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.749 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730658111.394492, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 92, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.749 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.251, 0.749 ], "means": [ 0.7328540754171566 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.10611903764842559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03247615849383687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013566382457547477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10260846963699011, 0.00018564709102016926, 0.0, 0.7677554711016423, 0.018845670598932204, 0.3776535919364625, 0.0, 0.005978849674628248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21469285770973778, 0.5023031181425797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0025134178191185503, 0.9817945685623051, 0.04576886412995464, 0.0006390070510595393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1386378778278722, 0.7663376444129167, 0.6557653380197823, 0.46771217623817773, 0.0, 0.9716499364584603, 1.0139002007473634, 0.005338748039204726, 1.0656445225144187, 0.9801584024610793, 3.283932704346109, 0.3117626014929859, 0.0, 0.47327628183067416, 0.0, 1.3799272100256075, 0.07489538194570286, 0.35398441710859924, 0.09910720287960686, 0.0, 0.0007910310761167284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21705050326553513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08041172864559165, 0.23047228970092284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9440978066648134 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 43.73180313387507, "peer_score": 10.552172772057208, "coverage": 0.9997205763829792, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997205763829792, "spot_peer_score": 14.79074356046256, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 43.73180313387507, "peer_archived_score": 10.552172772057208, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.79074356046256, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287863.274708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287863.274708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 87, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3092822861599144, 0.6907177138400856 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 325, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled for November 5th when voters will vote for the President of the United States. \n\nThe election is an indirect election where voters cast votes for members of the [electoral college](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Electoral_College).\n\n\nIn December the electors will cast their votes for the President. In January, Congress counts and certifies these votes to determine who will be elected president. If no candidate receives a majority of electoral votes the president will be decided by the [United States House of Representatives](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives) in a [contingent election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_election).\n\nSince the inception of the United States, [five elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_States_presidential_elections_in_which_the_winner_lost_the_popular_vote) have resulted in the winner losing the popular vote." }, { "id": 21548, "title": "Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?", "short_title": "Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?", "url_title": "Conflict of Russia and NATO State by 2027?", "slug": "conflict-of-russia-and-nato-state-by-2027", "author_id": 132719, "author_username": "MetaCalculator", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-28T00:36:07.330641Z", "published_at": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T07:59:56.476687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "comment_count": 24, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 94, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21548, "title": "Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?", "created_at": "2024-02-28T00:36:07.330641Z", "open_time": "2024-03-17T15:24:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-20T15:24:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-20T15:24:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T08:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. \n\nShould Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible media sources report a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before January 1, 2027. For this question, a direct conflict would be defined as any of the following:\n\n* Any presence of uniformed troops within the internationally recognized borders of a hostile state without permission (whether these are NATO soldiers within Russian borders, or Russian soldiers within the borders of any NATO member state.)\n* A direct and intentional military attack resulting in fatalities within the internationally recognized territory of Russia and/or any NATO country, acknowledged by the attacker or widely reported by credible sources, to have been intentionally carried out by a NATO country or Russia, respectively. This includes aerial attacks or air defense.\n* A direct military engagement resulting in fatalities of uniformed soldiers of a NATO member state or Russia, within the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine, or any other country (including international waters.)\n\nFor the purposes of this question, any NATO member state may act either as part of NATO as a whole, or on its own. NATO as an organization does not have to be directly involved, and NATO Article 5 does not have to be applicable.", "fine_print": "The following will not be considered a \"direct military engagement\" and will not resolve this question:\n\n* A clash or confrontation not resulting in fatalities.\n\n* Informal, clandestine, or unauthorized presence or participation, such as military advisors, non-uniformed special forces, mercenaries, or private volunteers.\n\n* Espionage or sabotage activities (whether physical or cyber) that are not reported as direct military action.\n\n* Any aid short of direct engagement (materiel, training, intelligence, etc.)\n\n* An attack which is claimed to be accidental (or not acknowledged to have taken place) by the attacker, or is acknowledged as accidental (or not acknowledged at all) by the attacked party, and which does not result in further direct military escalation.\n\nA country that joins NATO and either at the time of joining or following its admission to NATO satisfies these criteria will resolve the question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 21548, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758355185.723575, "end_time": 1758645583.908683, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758355185.723575, "end_time": 1758645583.908683, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.14697542564570423 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.49025973862647954, 0.8757100607462878, 0.9394659928190043, 0.7905599021539729, 1.2863111281161423, 0.5717603112660823, 0.050718366054993386, 0.7535956555594016, 0.07218472244402722, 2.286236860050866, 0.05138228252970245, 1.0, 0.08040436677867299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9326977156938286, 0.2515406540753948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014830008481343462, 0.8096910280571918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7008594225333291, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.472930800672776, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4977640990511126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288707.410729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288707.410729, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9582189348648069, 0.04178106513519306 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 207, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Western countries have repeatedly claimed that they will not directly engage Russian forces. However, recent news have mentioned a possibility of escalation, including France (one of the five recognized nuclear states and the only nuclear EU member state) mentioning that intervention [cannot be ruled out](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/frances-macron-says-sending-troops-ukraine-cannot-be-ruled-out-2024-02-26/). The US and UK since have [re-stated](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68417223) they have no intent of engaging Russia in Ukraine. \n\nShould Russia expand its Ukraine war, possibly carrying it beyond the initial war goals of Eastern and Southern Ukraine, a direct conflict seems more plausible. Possible theaters of operation include Russia and Ukraine proper (in their internationally recognized borders), the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, the Baltic States, and Moldova (including Transnistria.)" }, { "id": 21546, "title": "Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?", "short_title": "“M/V Rubymar” Salvage Operation", "url_title": "“M/V Rubymar” Salvage Operation", "slug": "mv-rubymar-salvage-operation", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-27T22:10:43.585265Z", "published_at": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.929913Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21546, "title": "Will salvage operations commence on the cargo vessel “M/V Rubymar” prior to April 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-27T22:10:43.585265Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-02T15:09:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-02T15:09:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-29T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-02T16:11:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On February 19, 2024, Houthi rebels in Yemen struck the *M/V Rubymar* - a Belize-flagged, UK-registered, and Lebanese-operated open-hatch general cargo ship - with ballistic missiles whilst it was operating in the Gulf of Aden. The ship sustained major damage, however the crew managed to anchor the ship before [escaping](https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1759401808668070214?s=20) unharmed. The ship remains abandoned south of the Hanish Islands, which is around 50km from the coast of Yemen.\n\nThe United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) [reported](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052?s=20) that an 18 mile oil slick had formed.\n\nWith the *Rubymar* filled with 41,000 tonnes of fertiliser (ammonia), as well as fuel, there has been speculation that if the vessel were to sink, that an environmental disaster could occur. \n\nYemen's internationally recognised government recently [requested](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2465881/middle-east) international assistance in preventing the release of the vessel's cargo.\n\nWith Houthi attacks ongoing in the region, there are serious security risks associated with a salvage operation. However, the Houthi’s may provide safe passage to salvage vessels since any environmental disaster would inevitably have an impact on the Houthi’s themselves. Indeed, any ceasefire in the ongoing [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war) may provide a window to safely commence operations.\n\nPreviously, on August 11, 2023, an [international salvage operation](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18102/safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days/) by Boskalis took place on the Safer - a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel - which was anchored off the coast of Yemen and at risk of spilling over 1.1 million barrels of oil due to being in a state of disrepair largely due to the Yemen civil war.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, credible reports state that salvage operations have commenced on the *M/V Rubymar*.\n\nIf at any point prior to April 1, where no salvage operations have commenced, the vessel sinks, or releases more than 80% of its cargo, the question will resolve **No**.", "fine_print": "Some examples of salvage operations are:\n\n- Draining of the ships cargo and/or fuel.\n\n- Towing back to port.\n\n- Retrofitting of buoyancy modules.\n\n- Repair of damages.\n\nThe salvage operations need not complete, but only commence.", "post_id": 21546, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709565239.04372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709565239.04372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09106320019326358 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.344294119693779, 6.362057589534087, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07787598098491487, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04478739497884664, 0.812986479619698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008393071224214524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067, 0.0, 0.05030905064265755, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02713823006833058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02381515030408827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.363643337661017, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007454186295369823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017494230548454617 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.2176300407747713, "coverage": 0.10057098706128885, "baseline_score": -3.281219262313943, "spot_peer_score": 31.69028869493092, "peer_archived_score": -0.2176300407747713, "baseline_archived_score": -3.281219262313943, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.69028869493092 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709395506.59162, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709395506.59162, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9651785201872535, 0.03482147981274653 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On February 19, 2024, Houthi rebels in Yemen struck the *M/V Rubymar* - a Belize-flagged, UK-registered, and Lebanese-operated open-hatch general cargo ship - with ballistic missiles whilst it was operating in the Gulf of Aden. The ship sustained major damage, however the crew managed to anchor the ship before [escaping](https://x.com/UK_MTO/status/1759401808668070214?s=20) unharmed. The ship remains abandoned south of the Hanish Islands, which is around 50km from the coast of Yemen.\n\nThe United States Central Command (USCENTCOM) [reported](https://x.com/CENTCOM/status/1761225931656704052?s=20) that an 18 mile oil slick had formed.\n\nWith the *Rubymar* filled with 41,000 tonnes of fertiliser (ammonia), as well as fuel, there has been speculation that if the vessel were to sink, that an environmental disaster could occur. \n\nYemen's internationally recognised government recently [requested](https://www.arabnews.com/node/2465881/middle-east) international assistance in preventing the release of the vessel's cargo.\n\nWith Houthi attacks ongoing in the region, there are serious security risks associated with a salvage operation. However, the Houthi’s may provide safe passage to salvage vessels since any environmental disaster would inevitably have an impact on the Houthi’s themselves. Indeed, any ceasefire in the ongoing [Israel-Hamas war](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel–Hamas_war) may provide a window to safely commence operations.\n\nPreviously, on August 11, 2023, an [international salvage operation](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18102/safer-transfer-finished-in-19-days/) by Boskalis took place on the Safer - a Floating Storage and Offloading (FSO) vessel - which was anchored off the coast of Yemen and at risk of spilling over 1.1 million barrels of oil due to being in a state of disrepair largely due to the Yemen civil war." }, { "id": 21531, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?", "short_title": "Magnificent Seven bubble pops?", "url_title": "Magnificent Seven bubble pops?", "slug": "magnificent-seven-bubble-pops", "author_id": 121560, "author_username": "Dumbledores_Army", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-24T18:27:47.450730Z", "published_at": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T18:09:22.515418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 102, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21531, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-02-24T18:27:47.450730Z", "open_time": "2024-03-06T15:06:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-09T15:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-09T15:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positive if at any point between now and 1 Jan 2026 shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high. \n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from Yahoo Finance under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does *not* resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: \nIf Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if *either* of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high. \n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positive.", "post_id": 21531, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758305352.020492, "end_time": 1761173927.859, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758305352.020492, "end_time": 1761173927.859, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.04775085856933353 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.3015460765558685, 3.0575085439479626, 0.9796000233292621, 1.5360329238314225, 0.5354878057991908, 1.931070644965093, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.3771936558610175, 0.9183948249798383, 0.07431406888622644, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01523699425510631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.26700250930143504, 0.05414553402405742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.038551120781734186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289299.924941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289299.924941, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9048355348981244, 0.0951644651018756 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 312, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow." }, { "id": 21493, "title": "Will Oppenheimer win the most Oscar awards?", "short_title": "Oscar wins of the Oppenheimer", "url_title": "Oscar wins of the Oppenheimer", "slug": "oscar-wins-of-the-oppenheimer", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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"group_rank": null, "description": "Taiwan makes up most of the land territory of the Republic of China (ROC). ROC also controls smaller islands, including [Kinmen](https://www.britannica.com/place/Quemoy-Island) and [Matsu](https://www.britannica.com/place/Matsu-Island). Both are located directly off the coast of China's Fujian province; distance to Taiwan is 275 km for Kinmen and 210 km for Matsu. Kinmen is 132 km², more than 10x the size of Matsu (10 km²). Map highlighting Kinmen (note use of \"Quemoy,\" another common rendering in English sources): https://cdn.britannica.com/29/247029-050-4F923DFF/Locator-map-Quemoy-Island.jpg \n\nAttention has historically focused on these islands during periods of tension between the People's Republic of China and ROC. The PRC shelled both islands in 1958.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the People's Republic of China (PRC) assumes de facto control of either the island of Kinmen or the island of Matsu for at least 24 consecutive hours, according to credible media reports, before January 1, 2028. \"De facto control\" need not involve replacement of the current civilian population by PRC citizens. If the occupation is contested and fluid (as in a war scenario), Metaculus will determine whether either island is held by PRC for full 24 hours, and if the situation is unclear, will resolve the question ambiguously.", "fine_print": "Occupation of the 11 smaller islands near Kinmen that belong to its same administrative division (which is also called Kinmen) don't count toward resolution. The same applies to Matsu, mutatis mutandis.", "post_id": 21491, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758388976.34991, "end_time": 1758673186.68009, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758388976.34991, "end_time": 1758673186.68009, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.36 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.64, 0.36 ], "means": [ 0.43409008386341996 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.19330086451826228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4265118540622144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.44816710576384877, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.044765806719238674, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.07755734487342231, 0.3287245873147355, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04633289385926926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7822702401139154, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2184439492892326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289336.086565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289336.086565, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9594915109434649, 0.040508489056535146 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 114, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Taiwan makes up most of the land territory of the Republic of China (ROC). ROC also controls smaller islands, including [Kinmen](https://www.britannica.com/place/Quemoy-Island) and [Matsu](https://www.britannica.com/place/Matsu-Island). Both are located directly off the coast of China's Fujian province; distance to Taiwan is 275 km for Kinmen and 210 km for Matsu. Kinmen is 132 km², more than 10x the size of Matsu (10 km²). Map highlighting Kinmen (note use of \"Quemoy,\" another common rendering in English sources): https://cdn.britannica.com/29/247029-050-4F923DFF/Locator-map-Quemoy-Island.jpg \n\nAttention has historically focused on these islands during periods of tension between the People's Republic of China and ROC. The PRC shelled both islands in 1958." }, { "id": 21490, "title": "Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?", "short_title": "Will Lindsay Hoyle Stay on as Speaker?", "url_title": "Will Lindsay Hoyle Stay on as Speaker?", "slug": "will-lindsay-hoyle-stay-on-as-speaker", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T19:37:11.293307Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.927936Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21490, "title": "Will Sir Lindsay Hoyle remain speaker of the House of Commons until March 1st 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T19:37:11.293307Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T01:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-22T19:12:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-22T19:12:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:01:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Sir Lindsay Hoyle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_Hoyle) is a former Labour MP and the current speaker of the House of Commons in the UK. Unlike in the US, the speaker of the House of Commons in the UK is not a member of either party and is conventionally strictly non-partisan. \n\nOn the 21st of February 2024, he caused tremendous controversy and uproar amongst members of the Tory and SNP parties when, on the SNP's opposition day (a day where the SNP decides which issues are debated in the House of Commons) he selected the Labour amendment to the SNP's motion to be debated, in addition to the SNPs motion. This was controversial because the Tory government had also put forth an amendment for consideration, and long-standing precedent is that if the government puts forward an amendment, then only that amendment will be considered in addition to the original motion. \n\nMembers of the SNP expressed their fury with the decision, as it undermined their opposition day and as it posed the possibility of the house not being able to vote on the SNPs own motion on its opposition day. The Tory Party was upset because in addition to breaking with convention, the decision put many members of the government in a politically precarious position because it would likely result in the government's own amendment not being considered. As a result, the Tory Party abstained from both votes, and the SNP's motion and the Labour amendments passed unanimously without a division. \n\nIn statements in the House after the motion and amendment had passed, the leader of the SNP and Tory parties both expressed their concern over their parties to have confidence in the speaker's impartiality going forward.", "resolution_criteria": "The Question will resolve as **Yes** if, at 00:00 on March 1, 2024 (local time, GMT), Sir Lindsey Hoyle is still Speaker of the House of Commons, according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21490, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709245935.251898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709245935.251898, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9716508636010623 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0015984758867006253, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000780056964336447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0027719772151930493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005676640048993487, 0.0, 0.0032603629444498622, 0.0, 0.013492534825694926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006744008424660957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001291273368885473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0090395625344522, 0.0038045040913139735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2210762549877181, 0.0, 0.009604210045876128, 0.0, 0.022614253091566634, 0.1497792651562, 0.0, 0.11069885177874525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2669241563924628, 0.09722222970319579, 0.20915411965007666, 0.17801954162256386, 13.972805222810914 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 23.576055866656326, "coverage": 0.9984503105038789, "baseline_score": 75.01372430385685, "spot_peer_score": 32.49300010188849, "peer_archived_score": 23.576055866656326, "baseline_archived_score": 75.01372430385685, "spot_peer_archived_score": 32.49300010188849 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709245935.296496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709245935.296496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 79, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.005856656044797681, 0.9941433439552023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 301, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Sir Lindsay Hoyle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lindsay_Hoyle) is a former Labour MP and the current speaker of the House of Commons in the UK. Unlike in the US, the speaker of the House of Commons in the UK is not a member of either party and is conventionally strictly non-partisan. \n\nOn the 21st of February 2024, he caused tremendous controversy and uproar amongst members of the Tory and SNP parties when, on the SNP's opposition day (a day where the SNP decides which issues are debated in the House of Commons) he selected the Labour amendment to the SNP's motion to be debated, in addition to the SNPs motion. This was controversial because the Tory government had also put forth an amendment for consideration, and long-standing precedent is that if the government puts forward an amendment, then only that amendment will be considered in addition to the original motion. \n\nMembers of the SNP expressed their fury with the decision, as it undermined their opposition day and as it posed the possibility of the house not being able to vote on the SNPs own motion on its opposition day. The Tory Party was upset because in addition to breaking with convention, the decision put many members of the government in a politically precarious position because it would likely result in the government's own amendment not being considered. As a result, the Tory Party abstained from both votes, and the SNP's motion and the Labour amendments passed unanimously without a division. \n\nIn statements in the House after the motion and amendment had passed, the leader of the SNP and Tory parties both expressed their concern over their parties to have confidence in the speaker's impartiality going forward." }, { "id": 21489, "title": "Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?", "short_title": "Biden Order on Immigration in Early March?", "url_title": "Biden Order on Immigration in Early March?", "slug": "biden-order-on-immigration-in-early-march", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T18:31:02.908358Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.602128Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 74, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21489, "title": "Will President Biden issue an executive order on immigration before the State of the Union on March 7, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T18:31:02.908358Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-23T09:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-23T09:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-11T16:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Biden has faced significant criticism from conservatives, and from [liberals as well](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/biden-border-immigration-00141388), regarding his handling of the border. Illegal border crossings hit an [all-time high](https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32) in December 2023, before [encounters fell in January 2024](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters).\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2024-02-21_123130.jpeg\" alt=\"Land Border Encounters by Month\" />\n*[Image from US Customs and Border Protection](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters)*\n\n[According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election), the Biden administration has been seeking a means to improve public perceptions and improve Biden's [polling deficit against Trump](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden), and sees his upcoming [State of the Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union) address as such an opportunity. According to unnamed officials cited by Axios, one approach being considered by Biden is to publish an executive order on the border ahead of the State of the Union:\n\n>One bold move that Biden has considered, we're told, is an executive order that would dramatically stanch the record flow of migrants into the Southwest. This could even happen in the two weeks before the address, allowing Biden to say he took action while Republicans just talk.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after February 21, 2024, and before President Biden's State of the Union speech begins on March 7, 2024, the Biden administration has issued an executive order that it describes as targeted at reducing the flow of migrants entering the US.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, the policies or actions described in the executive order are immaterial and no consideration will be made as to their efficacy. Only a description or characterization by the Biden administration that one of the goals of the executive order is to reduce the number of migrants entering into the US is required.\n* Descriptions or characterizations will be considered to be the public materials or statements made by the administration regarding the executive order on the day the executive order was released. This might include fact sheets or press briefings (for example the [fact sheet](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/02/21/fact-sheet-biden-harris-administration-announces-initiative-to-bolster-cybersecurity-of-u-s-ports/) that accompanied a recent [executive order issued on February 21, 2024](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2024/02/21/executive-order-on-amending-regulations-relating-to-the-safeguarding-of-vessels-harbors-ports-and-waterfront-facilities-of-the-united-states/). Metaculus will assess the descriptions or characterizations to resolve the question, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** in the event the available information is unclear.\n* This question will resolve as **Yes** if the criteria have been met before the start of the State of the Union on March 7, 2024, or, if the State of the Union is delayed until after March 7, if the criteria have been met before March 8, 2024.", "post_id": 21489, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709243700.278195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709243700.278195, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3869183270932329 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7471171729673871, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23202808966568075, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9433465922480666, 0.3728600386790456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32660281038909744, 0.0, 0.0, 1.924079097475698, 0.0, 0.486829750633724, 0.0, 0.8895461476317509, 0.0, 0.0, 1.584020099606137, 0.5475369850104072, 0.022225972450640584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4660661968378147, 0.0, 0.003626958106395275, 0.0, 0.12418085745577043, 1.77642643031823, 0.02464094517995897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24877094235518352, 0.851820964582102, 0.0, 0.052577289157086836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.036486146261818564, 0.14545392194110204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2807120396237446, 0.021531750693967372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8215131112850081, 0.2501835654769586, 0.003689275185039177, 0.016079834428119808, 0.014358311246418655, 0.4312171538295371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02000227009300229, 0.0, 0.703629119148065, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030097723134820904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3054018648546395, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.022523384285469, "coverage": 0.9994538792925346, "baseline_score": -11.954008721598543, "spot_peer_score": -10.385603162279958, "peer_archived_score": 12.022523384285469, "baseline_archived_score": -11.954008721598543, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.385603162279958 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709243700.31617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709243700.31617, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8243426803708689, 0.17565731962913114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 172, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Biden has faced significant criticism from conservatives, and from [liberals as well](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/02/15/biden-border-immigration-00141388), regarding his handling of the border. Illegal border crossings hit an [all-time high](https://apnews.com/article/immigration-border-crossings-mexico-biden-18ac91ef502e0c5433f74de6cc629b32) in December 2023, before [encounters fell in January 2024](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters).\n\n<img src=\"https://metaculus-media.s3.amazonaws.com/user_uploaded/Screenshot_2024-02-21_123130.jpeg\" alt=\"Land Border Encounters by Month\" />\n*[Image from US Customs and Border Protection](https://www.cbp.gov/newsroom/stats/southwest-land-border-encounters)*\n\n[According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2024/02/19/biden-trump-age-state-union-election), the Biden administration has been seeking a means to improve public perceptions and improve Biden's [polling deficit against Trump](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden), and sees his upcoming [State of the Union](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_of_the_Union) address as such an opportunity. According to unnamed officials cited by Axios, one approach being considered by Biden is to publish an executive order on the border ahead of the State of the Union:\n\n>One bold move that Biden has considered, we're told, is an executive order that would dramatically stanch the record flow of migrants into the Southwest. This could even happen in the two weeks before the address, allowing Biden to say he took action while Republicans just talk." }, { "id": 21488, "title": "Will Nvidia be in the top four companies by market capitalization on March 29, 2024?", "short_title": "Nvidia Top Four Market Cap at End of March?", "url_title": "Nvidia Top Four Market Cap at End of March?", "slug": "nvidia-top-four-market-cap-at-end-of-march", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:49:48.472842Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.714235Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", 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"spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-25T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-29T20:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-28T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 41% year-to-date as of February 21, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).\n\nAs of February 21 the website [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) shows Nvidia as the sixth ranked company globally by [market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp), which is the total dollar value of outstanding shares of the company's stock. Nvidia trails Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Saudi Aramco, Apple, and Microsoft.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when trading closes on March 29, 2024, (after 4 PM eastern time), Nvidia is ranked fourth place or higher by market cap [according to CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21488, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711659785.932203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711659785.932203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9398862707695589 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0008505046379414663, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6625140404033754, 0.0, 0.8306291892874734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017240219277825134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5812286299003168e-05, 0.00023206163730533122, 9.495809459034564e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.41906280066532e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003157704736511062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.729487161849235e-05, 5.2860123581788815e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00012564070509354954, 0.0, 0.00013994735994872138, 3.4933130772601314e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019197746551050598, 0.00025527801696022414, 0.008314988254894786, 6.179570958861009e-05, 0.0, 0.0016000315115564422, 0.00032912004875071453, 0.00024094101255154896, 0.0, 0.0030609186642959123, 0.006609748697526409, 0.0015586617948636244, 0.0027849810264750086, 0.031751056128946784, 0.011911759425241326, 1.4275556309515223, 0.019944897468014394, 0.3245661302487998, 0.3838955848199881, 21.91090675818042 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 16.52110837616761, "coverage": 0.9998740646330921, "baseline_score": 85.60579143606785, "spot_peer_score": 13.893488928174282, "peer_archived_score": 16.52110837616761, "baseline_archived_score": 85.60579143606785, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.893488928174282 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711659785.98163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711659785.98163, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 184, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0038649122544202053, 0.9961350877455798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 658, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Nvidia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nvidia) is a US company that designs computer chips and provides other computing services. Nvidia's stock has seen a substantial rise in recent years, driven largely by [high demand from AI developers for their chips](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/20/nvidia-faces-stiff-test-in-q4-earnings-after-parabolic-stock-rally.html). The stock is up [approximately 41% year-to-date as of February 21, 2024](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/NVDA:NASDAQ?sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjVr6qM8LyEAxWY5MkDHRwNC4UQ3ecFegQIahAf&window=YTD).\n\nAs of February 21 the website [CompaniesMarketCap](https://companiesmarketcap.com/) shows Nvidia as the sixth ranked company globally by [market capitalization](https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/marketcapitalization.asp), which is the total dollar value of outstanding shares of the company's stock. Nvidia trails Amazon, Alphabet (Google), Saudi Aramco, Apple, and Microsoft." }, { "id": 21487, "title": "Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?", "short_title": "Nikki Haley Ends Campaign Before Mid-March?", "url_title": "Nikki Haley Ends Campaign Before Mid-March?", "slug": "nikki-haley-ends-campaign-before-mid-march", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:25:37.282499Z", "published_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.758696Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21487, "title": "Will Nikki Haley end her 2024 primary campaign before March 15, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T16:25:37.282499Z", "open_time": "2024-02-22T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-24T18:33:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-24T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-06T15:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Nikki Haley remains the only major candidate opposing Donald Trump for the nomination to be the Republican Party's candidate for president in the 2024 US election. As of February 21, 2024, [political analysis website 538 shows](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) Haley with a primary polling average of 17.1% compared to Trump's 77.7%.\n\nDespite trailing Trump in both polls and [delegates from the first three states](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/#), as recently as February 20 Haley has [said she's staying in the race](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-shes-dropping-feel-kiss-ring-trump/story?id=107370200). However, it is unclear how long she'll continue to campaign. The next primary to occur will be South Carolina on February 24, where [Haley was governor for six years](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-republican-primary-what-to-expect-5b8ea70466d4ff1505ffe32633e11b0a). [Super Tuesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday), when a number of states hold their primaries on the same day, is also [coming up on March 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Primaries_and_caucus_calendar).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, Nikki Haley officially announces that she has ended or suspended her campaign to be the 2024 Republican Party nominee for the US presidency.", "fine_print": "* Ending or suspending her campaign for any reason, even temporarily, will result in the question resolving as **Yes**.", "post_id": 21487, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709737254.663841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709737254.663841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9276869420459858 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.021028255724261806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002584403006121208, 0.034876728544851916, 0.0003955809486523242, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250127172825864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05504182005033924, 0.08011600668955456, 0.00021895753899009755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016064219242832752, 0.0, 0.07602453099996802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04144879969549453, 0.0, 0.000349760912830967, 0.0, 0.0006976137443144507, 0.1938535790832784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.047412534083157445, 0.014812349052509924, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.060001502701895235, 0.5428891709680974, 0.013882655896015577, 0.016041862390311655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10825423188116148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16781198632508043, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004471731298889326, 0.008471355570313421, 0.0, 0.019056277158089226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03468222031333533, 0.0, 0.0495220378162985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6601974204256359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1152903243998369, 0.0, 0.2932952133851772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1411036230743147, 0.11820045430862186, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4867038393042677, 0.06592580740887077, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8878448516018584, 0.3193055119804197, 0.6410889167532738, 0.010651417937626811, 16.834726805810668 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.878040664290943, "coverage": 0.6102617260022678, "baseline_score": 19.23490495957157, "spot_peer_score": 39.958675077344175, "peer_archived_score": 17.878040664290943, "baseline_archived_score": 19.23490495957157, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.958675077344175 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709737254.701165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709737254.701165, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 143, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03406662550435946, 0.9659333744956405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 395, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Nikki Haley remains the only major candidate opposing Donald Trump for the nomination to be the Republican Party's candidate for president in the 2024 US election. As of February 21, 2024, [political analysis website 538 shows](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/national/) Haley with a primary polling average of 17.1% compared to Trump's 77.7%.\n\nDespite trailing Trump in both polls and [delegates from the first three states](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/#), as recently as February 20 Haley has [said she's staying in the race](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/haley-shes-dropping-feel-kiss-ring-trump/story?id=107370200). However, it is unclear how long she'll continue to campaign. The next primary to occur will be South Carolina on February 24, where [Haley was governor for six years](https://apnews.com/article/south-carolina-republican-primary-what-to-expect-5b8ea70466d4ff1505ffe32633e11b0a). [Super Tuesday](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Tuesday), when a number of states hold their primaries on the same day, is also [coming up on March 5](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries#Primaries_and_caucus_calendar)." }, { "id": 21486, "title": "Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "Neutral Gold Medals in 2024 Olympics", "url_title": "Neutral Gold Medals in 2024 Olympics", "slug": "neutral-gold-medals-in-2024-olympics", "author_id": 131932, "author_username": "freelancejosh93", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2024-02-21T11:25:59.836187Z", "published_at": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.661474Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21486, "title": "Will Individual Neutral Athletes Win ≥21 Gold Medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T11:25:59.836187Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T16:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T16:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T13:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7.", "resolution_criteria": "This market will resolve to \"Yes\" if Individual Neutral Athletes collectively win 21 or more gold medals at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The source of resolution will be the official medal tally published by the International Olympic Committee (IOC) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if such reporting from the IOC is unavailable. Otherwise the market will resolve to \"No\". \n\nIn the event that Individual Neutral Athletes are confirmed to have won 21 or more gold medals prior to the end of the Games, the market will resolve immediately to \"Yes\".", "fine_print": "This question is Annulled if the 2024 Summer Olympics is postponed past 2024 or otherwise cancelled.", "post_id": 21486, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723297296.193094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723297296.193094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.008020723817793758 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.875452306004232, 3.1566344323518334, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.059782377830796374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 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"history": [ { "start_time": 1723362308.435726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723362308.435726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As per the Olympic Committee’s [recommendations](https://olympics.com/ioc/news/strict-eligibility-conditions-in-place-as-ioc-eb-approves-individual-neutral-athletes-ains-for-the-olympic-games-paris-2024) from earlier this year, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7." }, { "id": 21485, "title": "Will there be a Super Bowl 100 before 2076?", "short_title": "Super Bowl 100 Before 2076?", "url_title": "Super Bowl 100 Before 2076?", "slug": "super-bowl-100-before-2076", "author_id": 115097, "author_username": "cakridge2", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-21T03:50:59.485028Z", "published_at": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:46.160682Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": 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"user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21485, "title": "Will there be a Super Bowl 100 before 2076?", "created_at": "2024-02-21T03:50:59.485028Z", "open_time": "2024-04-09T16:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-12T16:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-12T16:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2076-01-01T04:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the [most watched television programs in American history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#United_States), all since 2011.\n\nThe most recent Super Bowl was #58, and while it seems like this media juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down, things may change over the decades. The 100th Super Bowl would be played, assuming no schedule changes, in 2067, but many things might change in the next 43 years. On-field safety might be the wedge that kills the popularity of the NFL, or new players may not be good enough to command media attention, or maybe it quietly fades in popularity with no real cause.\n\nWill there be a 100th Super Bowl?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves yes if there is a 100th occurrence of the NFL championship game before January 1, 2076. This resolves yes even if that 100th occurrence was renamed from the Super Bowl, but does not resolve yes if the NFL decides to skip a bunch of numbers for some reason. There must be 100 occurrences of the game.\n\nCurrently, the Super Bowl is the game where the champions of the AFC and the NFC play to determine the overall champion. However, if this format changes or the league is restructured, this question still considers the final champion-deciding game of the season to count toward resolution. Do note that this is not retroactive - NFL championship games before the Super Bowl era do not count toward the total of 100, otherwise we'd be at about 90 of them already.\n\nSpecifically, any games count *at the moment of the first play*. The game doesn't have to finish, but it does have to start.\n\nIf any Super Bowl is canceled for some reason, this resolves yes if the Super Bowl continues afterward and reaches 100 occurrences before January 1, 2076, but does not resolve yes if the 100th Super Bowl is not reached.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21485, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741124004.178809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9598590136 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741124004.178809, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9598590136 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.7928906114909173 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7118165837590469, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7995735536199648, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.205445251837642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.7273210712397409, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6458755102004544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.104976254568003, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.43131426209606216, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7877271194976943 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289481.581182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289481.581182, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.15729069658985406, 0.8427093034101459 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Super Bowl](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl) is the annual championship game of the NFL, played between each season's AFC and NFC conference champions. It has been played since 1967 and gained its name the next year. Since then, it has become an American media powerhouse, making up 9 out of the 10 of the [most watched television programs in American history](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most-watched_television_broadcasts#United_States), all since 2011.\n\nThe most recent Super Bowl was #58, and while it seems like this media juggernaut shows no signs of slowing down, things may change over the decades. The 100th Super Bowl would be played, assuming no schedule changes, in 2067, but many things might change in the next 43 years. On-field safety might be the wedge that kills the popularity of the NFL, or new players may not be good enough to command media attention, or maybe it quietly fades in popularity with no real cause.\n\nWill there be a 100th Super Bowl?" }, { "id": 21471, "title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "short_title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya be head of Russia?", "url_title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya be head of Russia?", "slug": "will-yulia-navalnaya-be-head-of-russia", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-19T19:51:11.718041Z", "published_at": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.852205Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 46, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21471, "title": "Will Yulia Navalnaya ever become president or prime minister of Russia?", "created_at": "2024-02-19T19:51:11.718041Z", "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-28T02:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-28T02:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There is historical precedent in widows of opposition figures rising to become leaders of their countries, such as Corazon Aquino of the Philippines or Violeta Chamorro of Nicaragua. On February 19, 2024, following the assassination of her husband Alexei Navalny, Yulia Navalnaya released a Youtube [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIrYWhjdK_o) in which she said, “I will continue the work of Alexei Navalny. I will continue to fight for our country.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if Yulia Navalnaya, widow of Alexei Navalny, assumes the position of head of state or head of government of Russia within her natural lifetime. According to the Protocol and Liaison Service of the United Nations at its [web page](https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa), the current official names of these titles are “President of the Russian Federation” and “Prime Minister of the Russian Federation.” However, this will also resolve based on any successor titles for head of state or head of government, provided they are recognized as such by the UN or its successor organization.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if Yulia Navalnaya has legally died (as determined by an entity with the authority to make such a ruling) or if she has not assumed the position of head of state or head of government before the year 2100.\n\nIf the nation-state of Russia ceases to exist, the question will resolve as Yes based on whether Yulia Navalnaya becomes the head of state or head of government of the internationally-recognized successor state that retains the largest percentage of the city limits of Moscow within its borders.\n\nResolution will be based on [credible media reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) as determined by Metaculus admins. Admins have sole discretion in cases of any disputes and are the final determiners of this question's resolution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21471, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1749675118.959368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1749675118.959368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 45, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05864377832242033 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.3088390004098835, 4.266887992834437, 1.3951938028129298, 1.8769602440549544, 0.03365548811464179, 0.024521526059856833, 0.6655048324685833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4925280170881631, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8600494355428064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287250.314461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287250.314461, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9987407035238979, 0.0012592964761020944 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 76, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There is historical precedent in widows of opposition figures rising to become leaders of their countries, such as Corazon Aquino of the Philippines or Violeta Chamorro of Nicaragua. On February 19, 2024, following the assassination of her husband Alexei Navalny, Yulia Navalnaya released a Youtube [video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RIrYWhjdK_o) in which she said, “I will continue the work of Alexei Navalny. I will continue to fight for our country.”" }, { "id": 21469, "title": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?", "short_title": "NATO Member Calls for Hungary's Expulsion", "url_title": "NATO Member Calls for Hungary's Expulsion", "slug": "nato-member-calls-for-hungarys-expulsion", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-19T17:11:44.255889Z", "published_at": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.608237Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:11:44.255000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21469, "title": "Will any member of NATO call for Hungary to be expelled before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-02-19T17:11:44.255889Z", "open_time": "2024-02-21T18:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-24T18:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-24T18:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:11:44.255000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-06T20:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-06T21:15:09.404551Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T17:11:44.255000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Though it does not contain an explicit procedure for expulsion, according to an [analysis by Just Security](https://www.justsecurity.org/66574/can-turkey-be-expelled-from-nato/) NATO member states can by unanimous agreement, effectively expel a member state for material breach of the treaty:\n\nShould the conditions for the existence of a material breach be satisfied, NATO’s member states would be entitled, by unanimous agreement, to suspend the operation of the treaty in whole or in part or to terminate it either in their relations with the defaulting state or among them all (Article 60(2) of the Vienna Convention). For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. No further procedural requirements apply, including those laid down in Article 65 of the Vienna Convention.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if at least one head of state or head of government in a NATO member country calls for Hungary to be expelled from NATO, at any time from question launch until end of day, December 31, 2024. 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For these purposes, a unanimous decision of the North Atlantic Council, excluding the defaulting state, would suffice. 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One of their key demands is to expand the [Minimum Support Price](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_support_price_(India)) (MSP), the price that the government recommends each year for a specified number of crops in order to ensure a minimum profit for farmers.\n\nThis protest follows a previous farmer protest that happened in [2020 and 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Indian_farmers%27_protest), which in the end resulted in Prime Minister Modi [withdrawing the agricultural laws that triggered the protests](https://apnews.com/article/business-india-new-delhi-narendra-modi-2bfb76c9d3c0246896425461166078b5). The Indian general elections are scheduled to be held [between April and May 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election). With the elections drawing near the farmer protests may become a significant issue.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, credible sources report that India has enacted a law that expands the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for crops.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, an expanded MSP would include new legal guarantees of minimum prices for crops not currently covered by a legal MSP. or a new law that would result in increases to the MSP paid (on average).\n * The law need not directly specify an increased price for the MSP, a revised formula that credible sources report would result in a higher MSP is also sufficient.\n* This question requires the enactment of a law that expands the MSP, a policy change or announcement of price increases (such as by the [Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs](http://www.arthapedia.in/index.php/Cabinet_Committee_on_Economic_Affairs_(CCEA))) without the enactment of such a law would result in the question resolving as **No**.\n* An MSP law need not meet the protesters demands, the question will resolve as **Yes** so long as the MSP is legally expanded as defined in these criteria.", "post_id": 21439, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711887298.257211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.022 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711887298.257211, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.022 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.040009843911759074 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.372358117831899, 4.713227623731724, 0.5809846769925888, 0.22572781522990096, 0.012659848026058247, 2.00938502972171, 0.7336339070228796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02078240075915524, 0.005712198004389287, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09931121343223279, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04266053803278052, 0.0033424547903668812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01642407509832791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9467522735592828, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002884145530320797, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007280827884852904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007233580027534778, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028439359257530537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020659045864389524, 0.0, 0.001770091099343005, 0.0, 0.0021014002097153586, 0.0024716391381802813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002190681676036258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004411705175538277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018892335520048254, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004303387677233397 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 22.606573370705114, "coverage": 0.9999987754320971, "baseline_score": 32.51037290681145, "spot_peer_score": 2.6027312699000995, "peer_archived_score": 22.606573370705114, "baseline_archived_score": 32.51037290681145, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.6027312699000995 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711887298.302181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711887298.302181, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 84, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 474, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Indian farmers are marching on Delhi in protest](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-68271364) as they attempt to persuade the government to meet [their demands](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/13/india-farmers-march-what-are-their-demands-why-is-govt-blocking-roads) for better pay. One of their key demands is to expand the [Minimum Support Price](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_support_price_(India)) (MSP), the price that the government recommends each year for a specified number of crops in order to ensure a minimum profit for farmers.\n\nThis protest follows a previous farmer protest that happened in [2020 and 2021](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_Indian_farmers%27_protest), which in the end resulted in Prime Minister Modi [withdrawing the agricultural laws that triggered the protests](https://apnews.com/article/business-india-new-delhi-narendra-modi-2bfb76c9d3c0246896425461166078b5). The Indian general elections are scheduled to be held [between April and May 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Indian_general_election). With the elections drawing near the farmer protests may become a significant issue." } ] }
