Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2760
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2780", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2740", "results": [ { "id": 26752, "title": "Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Will González face charges in 2024?", "url_title": "Will González face charges in 2024?", "slug": "will-gonzalez-face-charges-in-2024", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T01:49:54.702732Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T12:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.149333Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T12:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T12:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26752, "title": "Will Edmundo González, the opposition candidate in the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election, be charged with a crime by Venezuelan authorities before the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T01:49:54.702732Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T12:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-03T12:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-03T12:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-16T14:21:08.012812Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the aftermath of Venezuela's [disputed presidential election](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) on July 28, 2024, where incumbent Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, the government has begun investigating opposition leaders. The justice minister, Tarek William Saab, [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-arrests-two-people-close-opposition-candidate-machado-2024-03-20/) that three opposition figures, including popular leader María Corina Machado, were under investigation for allegedly hacking Venezuela's electoral system. Edmundo González, the opposition's presidential candidate, has not conceded the election and continues to dispute the results.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before December 31, 2024, Venezuelan authorities officially charge Edmundo González with any crime, regardless of the nature of the alleged offense or the validity of the charges. If González is not charged with a crime before the end of 2024, the question will resolve as \"No\".\n\nResolves based on [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "- The charges against González do not need to be directly related to the 2024 presidential election or its aftermath.\n\n- If González is arrested or detained without formal charges being announced, the question will not resolve until charges are officially filed (at which point it resolves Yes) or the end of 2024 (at which point it resolves No), whichever comes first.\n\n- In the event of González's death or disappearance, the question will resolve as \"No\" unless charges were filed against him prior to his death or disappearance.", "post_id": 26752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733730749.647081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733730749.647081, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.79 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.20999999999999996, 0.79 ], "means": [ 0.6633384545026993 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12512387696460112, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5851433699949685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4326949339433014, 0.0, 0.7798039149335676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.092858705555729, 1.0304717420299325, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 5.993162337049213, "peer_score": 4.149962757691275, "coverage": 0.21753882640621455, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9936492566331538, "spot_peer_score": 4.225880311705528, "baseline_archived_score": 5.993162337049213, "peer_archived_score": 4.149962757691275, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.225880311705528 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286805.953589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286805.953589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2475992296196946, 0.7524007703803054 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the aftermath of Venezuela's [disputed presidential election](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) on July 28, 2024, where incumbent Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, the government has begun investigating opposition leaders. The justice minister, Tarek William Saab, [announced](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/venezuela-attorney-general-arrests-two-people-close-opposition-candidate-machado-2024-03-20/) that three opposition figures, including popular leader María Corina Machado, were under investigation for allegedly hacking Venezuela's electoral system. Edmundo González, the opposition's presidential candidate, has not conceded the election and continues to dispute the results." }, { "id": 26751, "title": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "short_title": "Will González concede to Maduro by Aug 31?", "url_title": "Will González concede to Maduro by Aug 31?", "slug": "will-gonzalez-concede-to-maduro-by-aug-31", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-30T01:31:47.982666Z", "published_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:12.145344Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 13, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T03:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 101, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26751, "title": "Will the opposition candidate, Edmundo González, concede the 2024 Venezuelan election to Maduro before September 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-30T01:31:47.982666Z", "open_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-01T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-01T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-01T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T03:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T03:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before September 1, 2024, Edmundo González publicly concedes the election to Nicolás Maduro, acknowledging Maduro's victory. The concession must be reported by credible sources. If González does not concede before September 2024, the question will resolve as \"No\".", "fine_print": "- A concession by González must be explicit and unambiguous. Statements that only imply a concession or acknowledge Maduro's de facto control without formally conceding will not count.\n\n- If González is arrested, disappears, or is otherwise prevented from making a public statement, the question will resolve as \"No\" unless he manages to concede the election through other means (e.g., a statement released by his representatives or family).", "post_id": 26751, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725135481.401931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725135481.401931, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 99, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.003 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.0065341192330901935 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.084383467900548, 2.8428867145089574, 0.3770751882234097, 0.0001297534598106844, 0.0, 0.001800434873130228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000552871679162284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09689752858569187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002698016324819901, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 4.246536385049069, "coverage": 0.999997101037761, "baseline_score": 99.05904436980666, "spot_peer_score": 9.104465823243576, "peer_archived_score": 4.246536385049069, "baseline_archived_score": 99.05904436980666, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.104465823243576 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725135481.456497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725135481.456497, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 101, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 302, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Venezuela's disputed presidential election on July 28, 2024, incumbent Nicolás Maduro was [declared](https://apnews.com/article/venezuela-presidential-election-maduro-machado-edmundo-5ce255ae90614162590bfe1207d2e1d0) the winner with 51.2% of the vote, while opposition candidate Edmundo González allegedly received 44.2%. The election was marred by [irregularities](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/28/world/americas/venezuela-election-results.html), with the opposition and international observers questioning the results. González, a stand-in for popular opposition leader María Corina Machado who was barred from running, has not yet conceded the election to Maduro." }, { "id": 26743, "title": "Will Dr. Allan Lichtman’s prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?", "short_title": "Will the Keys to the White House be correct?", "url_title": "Will the Keys to the White House be correct?", "slug": "will-the-keys-to-the-white-house-be-correct", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 124170, "username": "Skoogeer" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-29T12:46:30.391012Z", "published_at": "2024-08-01T16:41:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.343341Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-01T16:41:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-02T15:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-02T15:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T16:41:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26743, "title": "Will Dr. Allan Lichtman’s prediction of the electoral college winner for the 2024 US Presidential Election be correct?", "created_at": "2024-07-29T12:46:30.391012Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T16:41:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-04T16:41:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-04T16:41:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-02T15:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-02T15:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-02T15:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Will this be the year in which Dr. Lichtman’s model fails?\n\nFor more information about the Keys including their past performance, please see Wikipedia: [The Keys to the White House](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)\n\nSee also: \n\n- The [13 Keys Tracker](https://www.13keystracker.com/)\n- [13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE (JULY 2024 UPDATE) | Lichtman Live #61](https://www.youtube.com/live/IuS98AcKDZQ) - Lichtman says he will make his final prediction \"by the end of the Democratic convention.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the following two events occur: \n\n1. Dr. Allan Lichtman makes a prediction about the 2024 US Presidential Election, specifically the winner as measured by apportioned electoral college votes won. The prediction is scheduled to be announced by Dr. Lichtman on his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@AllanLichtmanYouTube) after August 18, 2024 and before September 1, 2024. \n\n2. Dr. Lichtman's prediction is correct.\n\nIf Lichtman's prediction of the electoral college winner of the US Presidential Election turns out to be incorrect, this question resolves as **No**. \n\nIf Lichtman does not make his prediction before September 1, 2024, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "Since 2016, Dr. Lichtman has been predicting the electoral college outcome rather than the popular vote outcome. Therefore this question will resolve based on the electoral college outcome and whether it is consistent with Lichtman’s stated prediction. If for some reason Dr. Lichtman changes his mind and predicts something else such as the popular vote outcome, then this question will be **Annulled**.\n\nDr. Lichtman's prediction must explicitly state which candidate he expects to win the electoral college. Vague or ambiguous statements will not be considered a valid prediction.\n\nIf a candidate is replaced after Dr. Lichtman's prediction but before the election, the question will be annulled.\n\nIn case of a disputed election, resolution will wait until the outcome is clear, and in case of inordinate delays the resolution will use the final electoral college vote counts as of the issuance of Certificates of Ascertainment, which for the 2024 election is [scheduled](https://web.archive.org/web/20240416054143/https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/key-dates) for December 11, 2024.\n\nSince Lichtman is predicting the winner of the electoral college, if no candidate wins 270 apportioned electoral votes (such as through a 269-269 tie or a 3rd party candidate winning electoral votes), this means there is no electoral college winner (i.e., the election [leaves the electoral college](https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/faq#no270) and is decided by the House of Representatives) and this question will be **annulled**.\n\nPredictions made by Lichtman after August 31, 2024 will be disregarded for purposes of this question.\n\nIf Lichtman chooses an alternative venue to his Youtube channel to make his prediction, such as doing it on a major media interview, that will count as well.", "post_id": 26743, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725154133.956458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725154133.956458, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.575 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.66 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42500000000000004, 0.575 ], "means": [ 0.5455827528114786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8570026340065788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.675012195184357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05985794318764461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1387803475283947, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2106750195973517, 1.2154943316106095, 0.0, 1.4527461324386846, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.25633089729369585, 0.3716977847515252, 0.0, 0.09878615287055517, 0.7201356238711278, 0.0, 0.7723726450666912, 0.0, 0.776669791603462, 0.0, 0.7162088209008342, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.582371554378954, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0200067169715049, 0.4078071510014757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12426951433661654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725178581.359708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725178581.359708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7487596733866441, 0.25124032661335594 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Dr. Allan Lichtman’s “Keys to to the Whitehouse” model has predicted most if not all of the presidential election winners in the last 40 years. Despite this track record of success, his model is not the only robust election prediction model and in 2024, the circumstances in America can only be described as “unique”. Will this be the year in which Dr. Lichtman’s model fails?\n\nFor more information about the Keys including their past performance, please see Wikipedia: [The Keys to the White House](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House)\n\nSee also: \n\n- The [13 Keys Tracker](https://www.13keystracker.com/)\n- [13 KEYS TO THE WHITE HOUSE (JULY 2024 UPDATE) | Lichtman Live #61](https://www.youtube.com/live/IuS98AcKDZQ) - Lichtman says he will make his final prediction \"by the end of the Democratic convention.\"" }, { "id": 26734, "title": "Will any inmate successfully escape from ADX Florence before January 1, 2050?", "short_title": "ADX Florence escape before 2050", "url_title": "ADX Florence escape before 2050", "slug": "adx-florence-escape-before-2050", "author_id": 112070, "author_username": "HenryBaer", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-28T15:01:47.064268Z", "published_at": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.960499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26734, "title": "Will any inmate successfully escape from ADX Florence before January 1, 2050?", "created_at": "2024-07-28T15:01:47.064268Z", "open_time": "2024-08-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-04T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-04T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[ADX Florence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADX_Florence), often called the \"[Alcatraz of the Rockies](https://people.howstuffworks.com/adx-florence.htm),\" is considered one of the most [secure](https://www.identiv.com/resources/blog/the-worlds-most-secure-buildings-adx-florence-prison) prisons in the world. It houses some of the most dangerous criminals in the United States and has never had a successful escape since its opening in 1994. This question aims to predict whether the facility will maintain its perfect record of preventing escapes for the next several decades.\n\nSee also\n\n- [Doing Time at the Supermax](https://byronchristopher.org/2017/08/30/inside-the-supermax/) by Byron Christopher\n- Denver Post: [Colorado’s Supermax prison now occupied by El Chapo is “worse than death,” ex-warden says](https://www.denverpost.com/2019/07/27/supermax-el-chapo-escape-mentally-ill/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:\n\n1. An inmate who was lawfully incarcerated at ADX Florence manages to leave the secure perimeter of the facility without authorization.\n\n2. The escape occurs after the date this question opens and before January 1, 2050.\n\n3. The escaped inmate remains at large for at least 6 hours following their departure from the secure perimeter.\n\n4. The escape is confirmed by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) such as reputable news sources or official statements from the Federal Bureau of Prisons or the Department of Justice.\n\nThe question will resolve negatively if no such escape occurs before the specified date.", "fine_print": "An inmate who is in transit to or from ADX Florence is not considered to have escaped from ADX Florence itself.\n\nAn inmate who dies during an escape attempt without successfully leaving the secure perimeter does not count as a successful escape.\n\nIf the facility is closed or repurposed before 2050, the question will resolve negatively at that time.\n\nBeing \"without authorization\" requires leaving the facility in an unlawful manner, which means that any scenarios involving coercion (such as a negotiated release in a hostage situation) or deception (such as impersonating a guard or creating false release documents) would count as an escape.", "post_id": 26734, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1742202568.043387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1742202568.043387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.08228318216411165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 1.7017004405193181, 0.2814081443602781, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.977674163360152, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289265.677708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289265.677708, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9875567201804267, 0.01244327981957331 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 10, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[ADX Florence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ADX_Florence), often called the \"[Alcatraz of the Rockies](https://people.howstuffworks.com/adx-florence.htm),\" is considered one of the most [secure](https://www.identiv.com/resources/blog/the-worlds-most-secure-buildings-adx-florence-prison) prisons in the world. It houses some of the most dangerous criminals in the United States and has never had a successful escape since its opening in 1994. This question aims to predict whether the facility will maintain its perfect record of preventing escapes for the next several decades.\n\nSee also\n\n- [Doing Time at the Supermax](https://byronchristopher.org/2017/08/30/inside-the-supermax/) by Byron Christopher\n- Denver Post: [Colorado’s Supermax prison now occupied by El Chapo is “worse than death,” ex-warden says](https://www.denverpost.com/2019/07/27/supermax-el-chapo-escape-mentally-ill/)" }, { "id": 26721, "title": "Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?", "short_title": "Will the S&P 500 Rise in 2025?", "url_title": "Will the S&P 500 Rise in 2025?", "slug": "will-the-sp-500-rise-in-2025", "author_id": 174140, "author_username": "AxePledges", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-27T14:31:50.598981Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T00:13:40.685938Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-30T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26721, "title": "Will the S&P 500 Index increase over the year 2025?", "created_at": "2024-07-27T14:31:50.598981Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-02T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-02T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "This question aims to predict the performance of the S&P 500 Index over the calendar year 2025. The S&P 500 is a widely-followed stock market index, representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Its performance is often used as a benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. stock market and economy. This question will be resolved based on the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the last trading day of 2024 compared to the last trading day of 2025.\n\nAccording to the NY Stock Exchange (NYSE), the last trading day of 2024 is [currently scheduled](https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars) for December 31, 2024, with the last trading day of 2025 being December 31, 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve to \"Yes\" if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the last trading day of 2025 is higher than the closing value on the last trading day of 2024. If the closing value on the last trading day of 2025 is equal to or lower than the closing value on the last trading day of 2024, this question will resolve to \"No.\"", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo! Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/?p=%5EGSPC) will be used as the resolution source.", "post_id": 26721, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763165610.38084, "end_time": 1763288479.996, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763165610.38084, "end_time": 1763288479.996, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.9500054364215355 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01323943609573642, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.281229044849989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7228487183092426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4689938082111713, 0.14006392172911664, 0.0, 0.12482516197369553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08615804177817497, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0940922770106467, 0.16003643602089318, 2.6212126929783666, 0.29360034512635746, 4.117369461590782 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289629.32822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289629.32822, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2826072896486591, 0.7173927103513409 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 407, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "This question aims to predict the performance of the S&P 500 Index over the calendar year 2025. The S&P 500 is a widely-followed stock market index, representing 500 of the largest publicly traded companies in the United States. Its performance is often used as a benchmark for the overall health of the U.S. stock market and economy. This question will be resolved based on the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on the last trading day of 2024 compared to the last trading day of 2025.\n\nAccording to the NY Stock Exchange (NYSE), the last trading day of 2024 is [currently scheduled](https://www.nyse.com/markets/hours-calendars) for December 31, 2024, with the last trading day of 2025 being December 31, 2025." }, { "id": 26717, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, radical life extension?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, radical life extension?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-radical-life-extension", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-27T00:59:08.736867Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T19:54:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T19:24:10.758503Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T19:54:55.037224Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2086-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2086-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-27T19:54:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26717, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be widely available radical life extension treatment?", "created_at": "2024-07-27T00:59:08.736867Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T19:54:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2086-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2086-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2086-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Two of the most popular proponents of the anti-aging movement include [Ray Kurzweil](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil), who says humanity can defeat aging through the advance of technology, allowing us to reach [longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity), and [Aubrey de Grey](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey), who says that the human body is a very complicated machine and, thus, can be repaired indefinitely.<br/>\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-aging_movement)\n> ___\n> When a startup called Retro Biosciences eased out of stealth mode in mid-2022, it announced it had secured $180 million to bankroll an audacious mission: to [add 10 years to the average human lifespan](https://twitter.com/RetroBio_/status/1511482430430986243). It had set up its headquarters in a raw warehouse space near San Francisco just the year before, bolting shipping containers to the concrete floor to quickly make lab space for the scientists who had been enticed to join the company.\n> \n> Retro said that it would “prize speed” and “tighten feedback loops” as part of an “aggressive mission” to stall aging, or even reverse it. But it was vague about where its money had come from. At the time, it was a “mysterious startup,” according to [press](https://www.biospace.com/retro-biosciences-launches-with-180-million-to-increase-healthy-human-lifespan-by-10-years) [reports](https://endpts.com/a-new-anti-aging-biotech-wants-to-add-10-years-to-your-life-but-whos-funding-it/), “whose investors remain anonymous.”\n> \n> Now MIT Technology Review can reveal that the entire sum was put up by Sam Altman, the 37-year-old startup guru and investor who is CEO of OpenAI.<br/>\n> [—Regalado, 2023](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/03/08/1069523/sam-altman-investment-180-million-retro-biosciences-longevity-death/)\n> ___\n> Altman believes longevity research needs a game-changing effort, similar to OpenAI's impact. His personal anti-ageing regimen includes healthy eating, exercise, sleep, and metformin, a drug used to slow ageing.<br/>\n> [—Decode Age, 2024](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/look-tech-billionaires-investment-longevity-decodeage-70lfc/)\n> ___\n> If AGI is successfully created, this technology could help us elevate humanity by increasing abundance, turbocharging the global economy, and aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.<br/>\n> [—OpenAI, 2023](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/)\n> ___\n> <iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?time=1850..latest&country=~OWID_WRL&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if more than one-fifth of 70-year-olds alive at the start of the year 5 years after our “[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves are still alive 50 years later, according to [credible](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) population data. This question resolves as **No**, otherwise. This question is conditional on humans not going extinct.", "fine_print": "For the purposes of this question, cryopreservation (and subsequent revivement) does not count.\n\n“Alive” includes alive in digital form—i.e., [mind uploads](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26246/5y-after-agi-human-mind-uploading/) count, so long as psychological continuity is preserved (according to credible reporting; see linked question), and so long as the uploaded mind is not switched off for a continuous period of a year or more during the 50 year interval.\n\n(If scientific consensus, as determined by credible reporting, or, in the case that is ambiguous, by a [panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil) of Metaculus admins, comes to be that psychological continuity is actually not a sufficient condition for a digital person to be the “same person” as their previous biological self, and, further, that mind uploads are not the same person / same subjective experiencer—to the extent this is a meaningful ontology—as their previous biological self, then mind uploads will not count for this question.)\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26717, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760901840.146348, "end_time": 1764381855.133766, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760901840.146348, "end_time": 1764381855.133766, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.46 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.73 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5692056452925827 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288637.283279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288637.283279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 51, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8187220569054202, 0.1812779430945798 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 157, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Two of the most popular proponents of the anti-aging movement include [Ray Kurzweil](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil), who says humanity can defeat aging through the advance of technology, allowing us to reach [longevity escape velocity](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Longevity_escape_velocity), and [Aubrey de Grey](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aubrey_de_Grey), who says that the human body is a very complicated machine and, thus, can be repaired indefinitely.<br/>\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anti-aging_movement)\n> ___\n> When a startup called Retro Biosciences eased out of stealth mode in mid-2022, it announced it had secured $180 million to bankroll an audacious mission: to [add 10 years to the average human lifespan](https://twitter.com/RetroBio_/status/1511482430430986243). It had set up its headquarters in a raw warehouse space near San Francisco just the year before, bolting shipping containers to the concrete floor to quickly make lab space for the scientists who had been enticed to join the company.\n> \n> Retro said that it would “prize speed” and “tighten feedback loops” as part of an “aggressive mission” to stall aging, or even reverse it. But it was vague about where its money had come from. At the time, it was a “mysterious startup,” according to [press](https://www.biospace.com/retro-biosciences-launches-with-180-million-to-increase-healthy-human-lifespan-by-10-years) [reports](https://endpts.com/a-new-anti-aging-biotech-wants-to-add-10-years-to-your-life-but-whos-funding-it/), “whose investors remain anonymous.”\n> \n> Now MIT Technology Review can reveal that the entire sum was put up by Sam Altman, the 37-year-old startup guru and investor who is CEO of OpenAI.<br/>\n> [—Regalado, 2023](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/03/08/1069523/sam-altman-investment-180-million-retro-biosciences-longevity-death/)\n> ___\n> Altman believes longevity research needs a game-changing effort, similar to OpenAI's impact. His personal anti-ageing regimen includes healthy eating, exercise, sleep, and metformin, a drug used to slow ageing.<br/>\n> [—Decode Age, 2024](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/look-tech-billionaires-investment-longevity-decodeage-70lfc/)\n> ___\n> If AGI is successfully created, this technology could help us elevate humanity by increasing abundance, turbocharging the global economy, and aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.<br/>\n> [—OpenAI, 2023](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/)\n> ___\n> <iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/life-expectancy?time=1850..latest&country=~OWID_WRL&tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 26715, "title": "By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, engineered pandemic?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-engineered-pandemic", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T21:22:38.889518Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T18:46:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-23T06:17:30.841034Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T18:46:42.769597Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-27T18:46:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 54, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26715, "title": "By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T21:22:38.889518Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T18:46:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T22:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Some people in the field of [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-risk?tab=wiki) see engineered pandemics as a major concern: in his bestselling 2020 book *[The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/)*, Toby Ord estimates (see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/some-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#The_table)) the chance of existential catastrophe via engineered pandemic to be “~ 1 in 30”.^ (Incidentally, Ord estimates existential catastrophe via naturally arising pandemics to be 1 in 10,000.)\n\nMeanwhile, over the past two years or so, concern has arisen that artificial intelligence might interact with engineered pandemic risk in a ruinous way. “OpenAI’s new study on GPT-4 and bioweapons is deeply worrisome,” writes Professor [Gary Marcus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Marcus) ([2024](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais)) “[The large language models of today] can give instructions on how to find, synthesise and order deadly pathogens, albeit incomplete ones” ([Matthews, 2023](https://sciencebusiness.net/news/ai/scientists-grapple-risk-artificial-intelligence-created-pandemics)) Experts are concerned about the situation worsening into all-out democratization of the ability to start a deadly engineered pandemic, à la “Type-1” civilizational vulnerability in Nick Bostrom’s “[Vulnerable World Hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf)”: “AI can help generate synthetic viruses and spark pandemics [...] Google DeepMind co-founder discusses ‘darkest scenario’ where people ‘will experiment with pathogens’” ([Sankaran, 2023](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-google-executive-deadly-plague-b2406938.html)).\n___\n\n^Note that [some](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks#Probability_of_engineered_pandemics) [skepticism](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zzsQMTejrRvYodkTS/exaggerating-the-risks-part-13-ord-on-biorisk) has since been directed at Ord’s estimate from within the existential risk community.\n\nNote also that one billion people infected is a significantly lower bar than [existential catastrophe](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-catastrophe-1). This question is aimed more at the question of “Will the world be in a state of ~chaos following AGI?” rather than the [longtermist](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/longtermism) concern: “What is the chance of existential biocatastrophe?”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that at least one billion people in total have been infected by one or more synthetic biological agents. This question will resolve as **No**, otherwise.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, we define a synthetic biological agent as a living agent capable of infecting, harming, and/or killing a target human host. “Living” means the agent must either be self-reproducing, like a bacteria or parasite, or capable of hijacking a host cell to produce new copies of itself, like a virus.\n\nBiological toxins, synthetic or not, do not count. Something like a genetically engineered mosquito carrying natural, unmodified malaria does not count. Macroscopic genetically engineered organisms, for instance, [genetically engineered wasps](https://thehungergames.fandom.com/wiki/Tracker_jacker), do not count.\n\nA synthetic biological agent may be a “natural” disease-causing organism that has been genetically modified somewhat (but not merely selectively bred), an entirely new type of virus, bacterium, or similar created from scratch, or indeed anything between these two extremes.\n\nIf the agent is modified from an existing disease-causing organism, there must be confirmation by a credible source that the symptoms of infection are different from those of the original, or alternatively that the infectious behavior is different, or that the capabilities of the agent, in some noteworthy sense, are different.\n\nThe infection does not need to be immediately harmful. For example, a virus that lies latent for several years before starting to harm its host counts, as long as credible reporting indicates that the virus will in fact start harming its human hosts at some point, given no intervention.\n\nThe consequences of infection must be undesirable—that is, not something that could conceivably be used for recreational use, say, or for improving health, athleticism or cognitive functioning.", "fine_print": "If our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 26715, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758608239.978438, "end_time": 1765099437.449, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758608239.978438, "end_time": 1765099437.449, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.10283114168467462 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2399377289543367, 1.940231938579765, 1.0569581539554411, 1.9577066231205364, 0.1298586955044776, 1.1249737995093612, 0.0, 0.18858609848356078, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.16502729497715657, 0.0, 0.08867683223307754, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25446741675480405, 0.0, 0.716439045345342, 0.02435728586146805, 0.0, 0.45875031368367064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029639045211680565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288982.137649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288982.137649, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.97302290630638, 0.026977093693619995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 90, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Some people in the field of [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-risk?tab=wiki) see engineered pandemics as a major concern: in his bestselling 2020 book *[The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/)*, Toby Ord estimates (see [here](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/Z5KZ2cui8WDjyF6gJ/some-thoughts-on-toby-ord-s-existential-risk-estimates#The_table)) the chance of existential catastrophe via engineered pandemic to be “~ 1 in 30”.^ (Incidentally, Ord estimates existential catastrophe via naturally arising pandemics to be 1 in 10,000.)\n\nMeanwhile, over the past two years or so, concern has arisen that artificial intelligence might interact with engineered pandemic risk in a ruinous way. “OpenAI’s new study on GPT-4 and bioweapons is deeply worrisome,” writes Professor [Gary Marcus](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gary_Marcus) ([2024](https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/when-looked-at-carefully-openais)) “[The large language models of today] can give instructions on how to find, synthesise and order deadly pathogens, albeit incomplete ones” ([Matthews, 2023](https://sciencebusiness.net/news/ai/scientists-grapple-risk-artificial-intelligence-created-pandemics)) Experts are concerned about the situation worsening into all-out democratization of the ability to start a deadly engineered pandemic, à la “Type-1” civilizational vulnerability in Nick Bostrom’s “[Vulnerable World Hypothesis](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf)”: “AI can help generate synthetic viruses and spark pandemics [...] Google DeepMind co-founder discusses ‘darkest scenario’ where people ‘will experiment with pathogens’” ([Sankaran, 2023](https://www.independent.co.uk/tech/ai-google-executive-deadly-plague-b2406938.html)).\n___\n\n^Note that [some](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2sMR7n32FSvLCoJLQ/critical-review-of-the-precipice-a-reassessment-of-the-risks#Probability_of_engineered_pandemics) [skepticism](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/zzsQMTejrRvYodkTS/exaggerating-the-risks-part-13-ord-on-biorisk) has since been directed at Ord’s estimate from within the existential risk community.\n\nNote also that one billion people infected is a significantly lower bar than [existential catastrophe](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-catastrophe-1). This question is aimed more at the question of “Will the world be in a state of ~chaos following AGI?” rather than the [longtermist](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/longtermism) concern: “What is the chance of existential biocatastrophe?”" }, { "id": 26706, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-stripe-announce-on-the-news-section-of-its-website-that-it-is-planning-an-ipo", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:32.241629Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:29.138138Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26706, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will Stripe announce on the news section of its website that it is planning an IPO?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:32.241629Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Stripe, Inc., announces at the News section of its website, before October 1, 2024, that it is planning an initial public offering. This section of its website can be accessed at the following link: https://stripe.com/newsroom/news If there is no such announcement before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**. ", "fine_print": "The news appearing at the specific resolution source is an important part of this forecast, so this question will resolve as No if an IPO announcement does not literally appear on the Newsroom section of Stripe's website, regardless of reporting from any other sources. Likewise, if the News section of its website, currently [here](https://stripe.com/newsroom/news) is unavaliable to Metaculus admins on October 1, 2024, this question resolves as No. \n\nStripe's IPO need not happen before that date, merely the announcement that one is coming.", "post_id": 26706, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722435352.293899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.38400000000000006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722435352.293899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "centers": [ 0.38400000000000006 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6159999999999999, 0.38400000000000006 ], "means": [ 0.42291647702092977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19898322899128149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.9158309324411683, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05515324697100428, 1.1022454188809396, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.8234315736747223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.2501577142572954, 0.1976105664975124, 0.8003336271299532, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.45150846793145216, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9247268198918361, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03680892014265008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 30.100225603281405, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 30.100225603281405 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722435352.326522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722435352.326522, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7178611557196833, 0.28213884428031666 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Stripe, which reported processing a full 1% of global GPD in its most recent [annual letter](https://stripe.com/annual-updates/2023), has long been speculated to be planning an IPO. In February 2024, it announced that its employees could cash out their privately-held shares. " }, { "id": 26705, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-apple-announce-an-iphone-with-a-graphene-thermal-system-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:32.151209Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.602265Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:06:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26705, "title": "Will Apple announce an iPhone with a graphene thermal system before October 1, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:32.151209Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:06:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T17:06:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T17:06:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [MacRumors](https://www.macrumors.com/roundup/iphone-16/), \"The iPhone 16 models are expected to include a new thermal design that will combat overheating. Apple is said to be working on a graphene thermal system for the iPhone 16 models, and the iPhone 16 Pro models may also include a metal battery casing that will improve heat dissipation.\n\nGraphene has higher thermal conductivity than the copper that's used in iPhone heat sinks.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Apple officially announces an iPhone model that has a graphene thermal system. If this does not happen before October 1, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The iPhone with a graphene thermal system must be part of a new model, possibly called the iPhone 16. \n\nThis iPhone can still be in the developmental stage at the time of announcement. 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The 252nd came from Finance, the 253rd came from Energy, and the 254th through 256th rankings also came from Finance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 250th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) is listed under the \"Energy\" industry when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). It resolves as **No** if the 250th-ranked person is from any other industry.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the \"median\" from the question's title is defined as the 250th ranked person on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index.\n\nIf the list contains fewer than 250 people on the resolution date, this question will be resolved as the last person on the list.\n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n\nThe industry classification of the 250th-ranked person must be exactly \"Energy\" and nothing else. In order to simplify this question's resolution, if the \"Energy\" category is renamed or split into subcategories, even if they are direct successors to Energy (e.g., \"Fossil Fuels\" and \"Clean Energy\"), the question will resolve as No. Part of the probability assigned by forecasters might therefore be the probability of Bloomberg changing this category. Similarly, if Bloomberg no longer lists a person's industry at all, this question resolves as No.\n\nThe billionaire's industry classification on September 16, 2024, will be used for resolution, regardless of any previous classifications. 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The 252nd came from Finance, the 253rd came from Energy, and the 254th through 256th rankings also came from Finance." }, { "id": 26703, "title": "Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-venezuela-invade-guyana-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:31.686033Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.729498Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26703, "title": "Will Venezuela invade Guyana before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:31.686033Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T16:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T16:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Venezuela and Guyana have long had a rocky relationship. Their border defined by mutual agreement in 1897 began being questioned by Venezuela [in 1962](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guyana%E2%80%93Venezuela_relations). In 2023, [Venezuela drafted a public referendum](https://youtu.be/Btqc9Kch980) on whether to further assert its claims. [American officials are visiting the region](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231124-us-defense-officials-to-visit-guyana-amid-venezuela-row-guyanese-vp) and [some are sounding the alarm](https://en.mercopress.com/2023/11/25/ngo-warns-essequibo-question-might-end-up-in-war-between-venezuela-and-guyana) that the dispute might escalate to war.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before September 30, 2024, either the Government of Venezuela or any two Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council announce or acknowledge that Venezuelan ground troops have entered Guyanese territory, and reporting from credible sources indicates that the number of troops entering is more than 100. From the credible sources, it must be clear the troops are acting deliberately on orders of the Government of Venezuela and without permission of the currently recognized Government of Guyana or the assent of the UN. These announcements must be describing events which take place (at least in part) between the launch of this question and January 1 of the year indicated in the sub-question.\n\nFor the purpose of this question, Guyanese territory is determined by the border as of October 10, 2023.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26703, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722435345.355848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722435345.355848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1125 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16516582338664745 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.8402148505771252, 0.7685977471107392, 0.28697040130296847, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.37023620748584474, 0.7020670829292148, 1.1812557486197341, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0699748606054467, 0.0, 1.0793977592767066, 0.2791154695693654, 0.0, 1.3528715394680435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.2569648587427511, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.0, 0.9833121663919349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722435345.392131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722435345.392131, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9451535518488017, 0.05484644815119837 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Venezuela and Guyana have long had a rocky relationship. 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[American officials are visiting the region](https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20231124-us-defense-officials-to-visit-guyana-amid-venezuela-row-guyanese-vp) and [some are sounding the alarm](https://en.mercopress.com/2023/11/25/ngo-warns-essequibo-question-might-end-up-in-war-between-venezuela-and-guyana) that the dispute might escalate to war." }, { "id": 26702, "title": "Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-total-market-cap-of-all-cryptocurrencies-be-more-than-15-trillion-and-less-than-or-equal-to-2-trillion-on-september-29-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:31.596681Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.813526Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T21:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T21:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26702, "title": "Will the total market cap of all cryptocurrencies be more than $1.5 trillion and less than or equal to $2 trillion on September 29, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-26T20:53:31.596681Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T21:24:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T21:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-29T21:24:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Coinmarketcap.com is perhaps the most popular site for monitoring the values of cryptocurrencies. 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}, "group_rank": null, "description": "JD Vance was officially nominated as the 2024 Republican vice presidential candidate on July 17, 2024. Shortly after that, President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and his vice president, Kamala Harris, became the presumptive nominee. Since then, footage has resurfaced of Vance referring to \"childless cat ladies,\" mentioning Harris. According to Harry Enten of CNN, Vance has a net favoribility rating of -16% in his home region of the Midwest and is historically unpopular for a freshly-picked vice president. Enten notes Vance's national net favorability of -5% is far lower than Dan Quayle at +15 and Sarah Palin at +26 following their respective conventions. There is historical precedent in an official vice presidential nominee dropping out: Thomas Eagleton in 1972. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if James David Vance is the Republican vice presidential nominee on September 30, 2024. If he is not the vice presidential nominee on that day, this question resolves as **No**. 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Shortly after that, President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and his vice president, Kamala Harris, became the presumptive nominee. Since then, footage has resurfaced of Vance referring to \"childless cat ladies,\" mentioning Harris. According to Harry Enten of CNN, Vance has a net favoribility rating of -16% in his home region of the Midwest and is historically unpopular for a freshly-picked vice president. Enten notes Vance's national net favorability of -5% is far lower than Dan Quayle at +15 and Sarah Palin at +26 following their respective conventions. There is historical precedent in an official vice presidential nominee dropping out: Thomas Eagleton in 1972. 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This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a new planet in the [Solar System](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_System) is detected by direct optical observation, according to credible sources. The planet must have an inferred radius larger than that of Earth, and an orbital period greater than 5,000 years. \n\nIf this does not happen before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26667, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349248.125194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349248.125194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.18122450128126363 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.273555756078699, 0.0, 0.7360647914847658, 0.0, 0.20427029069544175, 0.23179856028486678, 0.4434377819692303, 0.0, 0.8170121671060951, 0.27424663945997707, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9265536892669273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 1.2758492613210028, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.02168896019109956, 0.6768449047310485, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08642057743567683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722349248.159933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722349248.159933, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.93956673577068, 0.06043326422932009 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Note: question text is copied directly from [here](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4741/will-planet-nine-be-discovered-by-mid-2021/). This version has an extended resolution date.*\n\n---\n\nIn early 2016, two Caltech Professors -- Konstantin Batygin and Mike Brown -- created a major media splash by predicting the existence of [Planet Nine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planet_Nine), a new, but as-yet unseen planet in the outer solar system. As originally envisioned, their trans-Neptunian world has an orbital period of about 20,000 years and a super-Earth mass more than sufficient to bring the Solar System's planetary inventory back up to nine.\n\n[Batygin and Brown's paper](https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/0004-6256/151/2/22), has been downloaded well over half a million times, and presents indirect dynamical evidence for the planet's existence. Its presence is inferred through the gravitational sculpting that it has produced in the trajectories of the most distant Pluto-like worlds that lie beyond Neptune's orbit.\n\n[Follow-up papers](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016AJ....151...22B/citations) by a range of authors have added a mixture of credibility, detail, and skepticism to the Planet Nine hypothesis. In the years since the announcement of the hypothesis, Planet Nine has been invoked as an [explanation](https://arxiv.org/abs/1610.04992) for the generation of highly inclined Kuiper belt objects such as Drac and Niku, it has been argued that it [can account for curious orbital commensurabilities](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...91M/abstract) among the most distant members of the Kuiper Belt, and it has been [hypothesized that it can explain](https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2017AJ....153...27G/abstract) the 6-degree tilt of the planetary orbits relative to the Sun's equator.\n\nThe planet, however, remains to be found.\n\nIf it does exist, its most likely sky location is probably in one of the two regions of the sky where the Galactic Plane intersects the ecliptic. Confusion from the myriad stars of the Milky Way's disk renders systematic searches difficult in these areas. Nonetheless, new techniques, such as the [use of data](https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.06383) from NASA's TESS Mission may potentially provide a breakthrough. Additionally, Batygin and co-authors have published [an update](https://arxiv.org/abs/1902.10103) to their original paper that contains a significant amount of new analysis and remains optimistic regarding the prospects for eventual detection." } ] }
