Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2780
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2800", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2760", "results": [ { "id": 21438, "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?", "short_title": "Israel Invasion of Rafah by Ramadan?", "url_title": "Israel Invasion of Rafah by Ramadan?", "slug": "israel-invasion-of-rafah-by-ramadan", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-14T17:29:39.434278Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.390819Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 38, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 152, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15879, "name": "Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "emoji": "🇮🇱🇵🇸", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21438, "title": "Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)?", "created_at": "2024-02-14T17:29:39.434278Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-16T15:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-16T15:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-13T02:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-11T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel)l on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour who has threatened to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nWill Israel expand its ground offensive to Rafah by the first day of Ramadan?", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/2e746151991643e39e64780f0674f7dd) (ISW) reports Israeli military operations on its map at any of six locations surrounding Rafah (the specific locations are shown in the map embedded below) on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024).\n\n<iframe src=\"https://www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/embed?mid=1VCJMA9AH4k8G6v33Yr6z254_umiNe4Q&ehbc=2E312F\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\"}}>\n</iframe>", "fine_print": "* Israeli military operations will be considered to be both of the following, or any similar entries added to the map:\n * \"Reported Israeli clearing operations\"\n * \"Claimed furthest Israeli advances\"\n* If Metaculus has reason to believe that the ISW map is no longer being updated or maintained the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 21438, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710154320.618915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710154320.618915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07868723323898845 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.2165053784450224, 4.998726291221583, 3.270499747247157, 1.549476821837202, 1.6768148887241145, 2.6160588584286657, 1.7055549119890876, 1.277920048077633, 0.13655574557813482, 0.17809713903388397, 1.246025860264267, 0.23281057832641683, 0.041190593408921124, 0.0, 0.23003727343993408, 0.1089641424752432, 0.25059997401549217, 0.06129073820129448, 0.0, 0.004849750561674346, 0.45090759809919845, 0.0, 0.027023994596824377, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25100078235122214, 0.006417554732277106, 0.00866216043453827, 0.06188822561465411, 0.0, 0.5843069439120607, 0.0, 0.0047427348751845205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04357780616372015, 0.0, 0.0021029503262390012, 0.0, 0.10760124425900912, 0.12269936234127837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0019380645168493554, 0.0026699280126036814, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005762304247929655, 0.0, 0.001157996823290058, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001988228219836848, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09264746989081286, 0.008516053463742575, 7.482182921068497e-05, 0.00024145486278116725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005230044574787248, 0.0031154256785903708, 0.010187520491060045, 4.137804927727824e-05, 0.0, 0.001640509814689364, 0.0024681838415965473, 0.0, 0.0003077609173420817, 0.0, 0.4142120014422639, 0.00012191295937735598, 0.003901094895495079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003619126660641751, 0.0, 0.00021265388654049196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00021916033551773825, 0.0, 1.819043878209625e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1309161987141997, 0.0, 2.4996438621867328e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001556984581500569 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 31.714282057323434, "coverage": 0.9999890293842797, "baseline_score": 28.501307601453988, "spot_peer_score": 9.4705484544864, "peer_archived_score": 31.714282057323434, "baseline_archived_score": 28.501307601453988, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.4705484544864 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710154320.667285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710154320.667285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 152, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9967666559528745, 0.003233344047125484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 727, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Israeli invasion of the Gaza Strip](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israeli_invasion_of_the_Gaza_Strip_(2023–present)#27_October) commenced on October 27, 2023 in response to a [Hamas-led attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas-led_attack_on_Israel)l on October 7, 2023 which saw over a thousand killed, and hundreds kidnapped.\n\nThe invasion was initially limited to Northern Gaza, but the plans were gradually expanded further South. Recently, Israel has [stated its intentions to expand its invasion to the Southern city of Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), which borders Egypt. These expansion plans, like prior ones, have seen widespread condemnation from both pro and anti-Israeli nations. This condemnation is primarily based on the alarming number of deaths and casualties stemming from the ground invasion; the growing humanitarian crisis, which has become more acute as the Israeli invasion has expanded; and the vast number of Palestinian refugees which are reportedly taking refuge in the city having fled from Northern Gaza.\n\nIsrael has already [commenced airstrikes and covert raids in Rafah](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-12/israel-conducts-strikes-in-rafah-as-humanitarian-concerns-mount), but a full-scale ground invasion has yet to commence.\n\nAmongst the nations who have condemned the plans are the US - Israel's closest ally - and Egypt - Gaza's Southern neighbour who has threatened to break it's 45 year old peace treaty with Israel if the ground invasion plans commence in Rafah.\n\nWill Israel expand its ground offensive to Rafah by the first day of Ramadan?" }, { "id": 21418, "title": "Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?", "short_title": "SCOTUS grants cert in Trump immunity?", "url_title": "SCOTUS grants cert in Trump immunity?", "slug": "scotus-grants-cert-in-trump-immunity", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-09T16:21:00.627773Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.814071Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 79, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21418, "title": "Before April 1 2024, will the Supreme Court agree to hear an appeal from Donald Trump on the question of presidential immunity?", "created_at": "2024-02-09T16:21:00.627773Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-16T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-16T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-28T22:09:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[United States of America v. Donald J. Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)?useskin=vector) is a pending federal criminal case in which former president Donald Trump is accused of, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to defraud the United States, in connection with his alleged participation in attempts to circumvent or overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. \n\nTrump filed [a motion to dismiss](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148.74.0_1.pdf) the indictment against him in this case on the basis that as president, he enjoyed absolute immunity for criminal acts performed within the \"outer perimeter\" of his official responsibility. This argument was [rejected by the trial judge](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67598948) in December 2023, and on appeal, [rejected](https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/1AC5A0E7090A350785258ABB0052D942/$file/23-3228-2039001.pdf) by a three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on February 6 2024.\n\nTrump may appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States by filing a [petition for a writ of certiorari.](https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1) Supreme Court rules require that at least four of the nine Justices vote in favour of granting a writ of cert in order for the Court to hear an appeal. The Supreme Court typically agrees to hear only about 2% of the cases it is petitioned to hear appeals in each year.\n\nTrump has been [directed](https://i0.wp.com/www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/dc-court-mandate.png?w=634&ssl=1) to file an application for a stay of the mandate pending the filing of a petition for a writ of cert in this case on or before February 12, or else jurisdiction will return to the trial court and pre-trial processes, suspended since Trump's initial appeal was filed in December, may resume.\n\nWhether the Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal has [significant implications](https://www.justsecurity.org/91837/how-long-will-trumps-immunity-appeal-take-analyzing-the-alternative-timelines/) for the timing of Trump's trial in this case, even if Trump's assertion of immunity is ultimately rejected. If the Supreme Court does not agree to hear an appeal, it is highly likely that Trump will face trial in this matter before the presidential election. If it does agree to hear an appeal, whether Trump is tried before the election in this matter will likely hinge on the timetable the Court sets for briefing and argument, and how long it takes the Court to deliver its opinion.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern on April 1, 2024, the Supreme Court of the United States has granted a petition for a writ of certiorari for Donald Trump to appeal the issue of presidential immunity, or otherwise agreed to hear Trump's appeal on the matter. The question will resolve as **No** if that has not happened, including if the Supreme Court is still considering at that time whether to grant the writ of cert, or if no petition has been filed; or if the Supreme Court denies Trump cert on this matter.\n\nThis question only requires that the Supreme Court issue a writ of cert, or to agree to hear the appeal. 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Donald J. Trump](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_prosecution_of_Donald_Trump_(election_obstruction_case)?useskin=vector) is a pending federal criminal case in which former president Donald Trump is accused of, among other things, obstruction of an official proceeding, and conspiracy to defraud the United States, in connection with his alleged participation in attempts to circumvent or overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. \n\nTrump filed [a motion to dismiss](https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148/gov.uscourts.dcd.258148.74.0_1.pdf) the indictment against him in this case on the basis that as president, he enjoyed absolute immunity for criminal acts performed within the \"outer perimeter\" of his official responsibility. This argument was [rejected by the trial judge](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-67598948) in December 2023, and on appeal, [rejected](https://www.cadc.uscourts.gov/internet/opinions.nsf/1AC5A0E7090A350785258ABB0052D942/$file/23-3228-2039001.pdf) by a three-judge panel of the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit on February 6 2024.\n\nTrump may appeal to the Supreme Court of the United States by filing a [petition for a writ of certiorari.](https://www.uscourts.gov/about-federal-courts/educational-resources/about-educational-outreach/activity-resources/supreme-1) Supreme Court rules require that at least four of the nine Justices vote in favour of granting a writ of cert in order for the Court to hear an appeal. The Supreme Court typically agrees to hear only about 2% of the cases it is petitioned to hear appeals in each year.\n\nTrump has been [directed](https://i0.wp.com/www.justsecurity.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/dc-court-mandate.png?w=634&ssl=1) to file an application for a stay of the mandate pending the filing of a petition for a writ of cert in this case on or before February 12, or else jurisdiction will return to the trial court and pre-trial processes, suspended since Trump's initial appeal was filed in December, may resume.\n\nWhether the Supreme Court agrees to hear an appeal has [significant implications](https://www.justsecurity.org/91837/how-long-will-trumps-immunity-appeal-take-analyzing-the-alternative-timelines/) for the timing of Trump's trial in this case, even if Trump's assertion of immunity is ultimately rejected. If the Supreme Court does not agree to hear an appeal, it is highly likely that Trump will face trial in this matter before the presidential election. If it does agree to hear an appeal, whether Trump is tried before the election in this matter will likely hinge on the timetable the Court sets for briefing and argument, and how long it takes the Court to deliver its opinion." }, { "id": 21406, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?", "short_title": "Chiefs win Super Bowl 58", "url_title": "Chiefs win Super Bowl 58", "slug": "chiefs-win-super-bowl-58", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-08T16:23:49.108362Z", "published_at": "2024-02-08T19:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.268292Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-08T19:58:19.447735Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-08T19:58:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21406, "title": "[Short Fuse] Will the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?", "created_at": "2024-02-08T16:23:49.108362Z", "open_time": "2024-02-08T19:58:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-09T03:22:12Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-09T03:22:12Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-12T03:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-11T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Super Bowl LVIII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII) is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of [Super Bowl LIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIV) (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.\n\nMetaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? [Closing odds on the Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV were 41%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/), and the Bucs went on to win the game.\n\nThe 49ers are favorites by 2 points.\n\nWill the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as YES if the Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII, per credible media reporting. If the 49ers win, it resolves as NO.", "fine_print": "If the game is cancelled or otherwise is unable to finish to completion by the following day, this question resolve ambiguously.", "post_id": 21406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707677360.254374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707677360.254374, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.48 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.52, 0.48 ], "means": [ 0.5099034528930927 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5813794188152445, 2.456908449383538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8929389982591724, 0.0, 1.242136156752826, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.46968204525681123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7080730986362569, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9142125057487235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -6.887974184438735, "coverage": 0.991579841400041, "baseline_score": 2.8492143895655033, "spot_peer_score": -12.569856824274737, "peer_archived_score": -6.887974184438735, "baseline_archived_score": 2.8492143895655033, "spot_peer_archived_score": -12.569856824274737 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707677360.283052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707677360.283052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6840647187452622, 0.31593528125473785 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 22, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Super Bowl LVIII](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LVIII) is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of [Super Bowl LIV](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_Bowl_LIV) (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.\n\nMetaculus has predicted in a variety of domains but can Metaculus do well at sports? [Closing odds on the Buccaneers to win Super Bowl LV were 41%](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6393/buccaneers-win-super-bowl-lv/), and the Bucs went on to win the game.\n\nThe 49ers are favorites by 2 points.\n\nWill the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl LVIII?" }, { "id": 21405, "title": "Will Ariel Henry cease to be Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister of Haiti before April 1, 2024, for any reason?", "short_title": "Ariel Henry Out as Acting PM by April?", "url_title": "Ariel Henry Out as Acting PM by April?", "slug": "ariel-henry-out-as-acting-pm-by-april", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-08T16:10:10.737662Z", "published_at": "2024-02-09T18:09:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.171834Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-09T18:09:00Z", "comment_count": 79, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-11T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": 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"actual_close_time": "2024-03-11T14:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appointing Henry.\n\nGang violence and political instability have disrupted Haiti in recent years. Elections have repeatedly been cancelled due to instability following the last national elections in 2016, and [no elected officials remain in government](https://www.npr.org/2023/01/18/1149556481/haiti-last-elected-official-political-crisis). Frustrations have culminated in [recent protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68239332), as February 7, 2024, was the day that the new government [would have been sworn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Haitian_general_election#:~:text=On%2021%20December%202022%2C%20Henry%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with%20political%20parties%2C%20civil%20society%20organizations%20and%20private%20sector%20members%20to%20hold%20the%20elections%20in%202023%2C%20with%20the%20new%20government%20scheduled%20to%20be%20sworn%20in%20on%207%20February%202024.) in following the most recent cancelled election.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, Ariel Henry is no longer the Acting Prime Minister or Primer Minister of Haiti, for any reason.", "fine_print": "* To resolve as **Yes** Ariel Henry must neither be the acting or permanent prime minister of Haiti, his title changing from Acting Prime Minister to Prime Minister is not sufficient.\n* If Ariel Henry is no longer able to exercise his authority as Acting Prime Minister or Prime Minister, such as in the case where he flees the country or is deposed in a coup, this question will also resolve as **Yes**. If the circumstances are difficult to discern, Metaculus may use the available information to make a determination or resolve the question as **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 21405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710365553.33395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710365553.33395, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 103, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9189156956300332 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.5733457052776447, 0.00022111209728182583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0036818570511483904, 0.0006618547477705139, 0.00016090796494774804, 0.0012497772419926385, 0.0, 0.004065232908961646, 0.0, 0.002334179978709882, 0.00641015356332571, 0.0, 0.012276217918119923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0047336436668202, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002890555814196455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004260043935447174, 0.0, 0.005805836553457768, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007857345343876863, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012844412043869005, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029728711458096302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038245446286032047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0077707472895727076, 0.0, 0.03204264418412277, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03992756526622757, 0.0, 0.9611697305973533, 0.003790670974730546, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02755825804385377, 0.027135907111024364, 0.03713345496249917, 0.0, 0.05298274342702911, 0.0, 0.6353801166672093, 0.0, 0.04289965199472163, 0.2834563466399075, 0.0, 0.06955922078988591, 0.010243343466511347, 0.012224307168577479, 0.0, 0.023617499732215674, 0.3805401730816387, 0.9057282670029041, 0.0, 0.021832922439402977, 0.0, 1.2559444982662447, 0.060784385723977465, 1.2679028943180781, 0.9969682169271136, 10.978664753661306 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 19.592555593978137, "coverage": 0.6025560571986609, "baseline_score": -75.34905077895694, "spot_peer_score": 43.08158206393162, "peer_archived_score": 19.592555593978137, "baseline_archived_score": -75.34905077895694, "spot_peer_archived_score": 43.08158206393162 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710142505.332295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710142505.332295, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 88, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3341782024446772, 0.6658217975553228 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 508, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ariel Henry](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ariel_Henry) has been Acting Prime Minister of Haiti since he was [appointed](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-57910829) by former president [Jovenel Moïse](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jovenel_Mo%C3%AFse), who was assassinated on July 7, 2021, shortly after appointing Henry.\n\nGang violence and political instability have disrupted Haiti in recent years. Elections have repeatedly been cancelled due to instability following the last national elections in 2016, and [no elected officials remain in government](https://www.npr.org/2023/01/18/1149556481/haiti-last-elected-official-political-crisis). Frustrations have culminated in [recent protests](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68239332), as February 7, 2024, was the day that the new government [would have been sworn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_Haitian_general_election#:~:text=On%2021%20December%202022%2C%20Henry%20signed%20an%20agreement%20with%20political%20parties%2C%20civil%20society%20organizations%20and%20private%20sector%20members%20to%20hold%20the%20elections%20in%202023%2C%20with%20the%20new%20government%20scheduled%20to%20be%20sworn%20in%20on%207%20February%202024.) in following the most recent cancelled election." }, { "id": 21394, "title": "Will the submarine cables running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "short_title": "Data Cables Damaged in the Red Sea?", "url_title": "Data Cables Damaged in the Red Sea?", "slug": "data-cables-damaged-in-the-red-sea", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": 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running through the Red Sea be damaged by a hostile actor before the 15th of March?", "created_at": "2024-02-06T11:12:39.884192Z", "open_time": "2024-02-08T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-11T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-15T20:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-15T20:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-15T20:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:58:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-14T22:58:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Houthis of Yemen have been attacking surface ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait with missiles and drones for weeks now, but a new potentially important target is starting to receive increased attention by both the international community and the Houthis. A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/houthis-may-sabotage-western-internet-cables-in-red-sea-yemen-telecoms-firms-warn) of global internet data, is located at the bottom of the Red Sea.\n\nRecently a Houthi-aligned Telegram channel pointed this out in an indirect threat. Yemen’s General Telecommunications Company has subsequently [warned](https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/25833/) about the danger. However, similar threats were previously raised in late [December](https://www.memri.org/jttm/veiled-threat-telegram-channels-linked-houthi-ansar-allah-movement-point-submarine-internet), but have not brought significant attention due to a focus on the dangers to international shipping.\n\nWhile these cables are supposed to be unreachable without high-tech equipment such as advanced submarines, in some places the sea floor is only a depth of around [100 metres](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/could-the-houthis-sabotage-international-internet-cables-in-the-red-sea/?cf-view). Such locations might therefore allow a potential saboteur to reach the cables even without equipment.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 15, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that data cable infrastructure in the Red Sea has suffered damage caused by a hostile actor.", "fine_print": "Only sabotage and similar violent attacks (it does not have to be specifically attributed to the Houthis) against the infrastructure will count. Therefore no damage caused by mishandled maintenance work and similar events will count.", "post_id": 21394, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710452850.661688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710452850.661688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.0705790484625778 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.16754851680353, 10.998295338493653, 0.3076936283377607, 1.8519368914946153, 0.2985250965492424, 0.47220711380038294, 0.07372197619417951, 0.1619814746112252, 0.0002900821595247607, 0.07208775776251124, 0.5674997194939277, 0.0, 0.277371110850073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012951068444673024, 0.01001287357199989, 0.007797795703464398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26549273281584806, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00023194202313296645, 0.0, 5.9596002317171564e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1924144028493056e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8537499118211335, 0.5034337070108629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004610343867954063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.436636207744551e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01813114367536282, 0.7882609693600993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009271831725101498, 0.0, 0.004018608781791655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034934892766462036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008053861786992753, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22868117279805014 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.45819586218344, "coverage": 0.9999977575813936, "baseline_score": 87.4014577934875, "spot_peer_score": 7.914243471733534, "peer_archived_score": 11.45819586218344, "baseline_archived_score": 87.4014577934875, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.914243471733534 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710452850.703046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710452850.703046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 162, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9978104970581998, 0.0021895029418002037 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 786, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Houthis of Yemen have been attacking surface ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait with missiles and drones for weeks now, but a new potentially important target is starting to receive increased attention by both the international community and the Houthis. A network of cables, which transfers approximately [17 percent](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/feb/05/houthis-may-sabotage-western-internet-cables-in-red-sea-yemen-telecoms-firms-warn) of global internet data, is located at the bottom of the Red Sea.\n\nRecently a Houthi-aligned Telegram channel pointed this out in an indirect threat. Yemen’s General Telecommunications Company has subsequently [warned](https://www.mofa-ye.org/Pages/25833/) about the danger. However, similar threats were previously raised in late [December](https://www.memri.org/jttm/veiled-threat-telegram-channels-linked-houthi-ansar-allah-movement-point-submarine-internet), but have not brought significant attention due to a focus on the dangers to international shipping.\n\nWhile these cables are supposed to be unreachable without high-tech equipment such as advanced submarines, in some places the sea floor is only a depth of around [100 metres](https://www.airforce-technology.com/features/could-the-houthis-sabotage-international-internet-cables-in-the-red-sea/?cf-view). Such locations might therefore allow a potential saboteur to reach the cables even without equipment." }, { "id": 21374, "title": "Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?", "short_title": "US is a NATO Member until 2029?", "url_title": "US is a NATO Member until 2029?", "slug": "us-is-a-nato-member-until-2029", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-05T04:08:43.619661Z", "published_at": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-19T08:38:56.554336Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21374, "title": "Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-02-05T04:08:43.619661Z", "open_time": "2024-02-06T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-09T20:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-09T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2028-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.\n\nThe US has been a member of NATO since 1949.\n\nIn January 2020, Trump said to Ursula von der Leyen that the US will not help Europe if it was attacked and that it will quit NATO, according to [a recent claim](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/) by Thierry Breton, a French commissioner who is responsible for the European Union's internal market. Specifically, Trump said:\n\n> You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you\n\n\n> By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO\n\n\n> And by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense\n\nNo country has ever left NATO, willingly or not, since its inception.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **No** if the US is no longer a member of NATO for any period of time before January 1, 2029, according to the [official list of members](https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html).", "fine_print": "The question resolves as **No** if NATO is disbanded before January 1, 2029.", "post_id": 21374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758271126.170013, "end_time": 1759325182.930077, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758271126.170013, "end_time": 1759325182.930077, "forecaster_count": 62, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.94 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.06000000000000005, 0.94 ], "means": [ 0.9162494308599181 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24826285979550225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02349653657703422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04604314668505586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37158441561289096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.131523990274982, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3946779386005586, 0.0, 0.16675237628327297, 0.6891401987212141, 0.0, 2.822762284201168, 0.0, 0.07558440864786083, 0.0, 1.2289588375688898, 1.6169864920388903, 1.7993861938157854, 0.39634710450240773, 0.4188409221549053, 2.823433695679715 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288544.487321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288544.487321, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 73, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04366030926668507, 0.9563396907333149 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 222, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The North Atlantic Treaty Organization is an intergovernmental military alliance between 31 North American and European countries. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949. NATO constitutes a system of collective defence whereby its independent member states agree to mutual defence in response to an attack by any external party.\n\nThe US has been a member of NATO since 1949.\n\nIn January 2020, Trump said to Ursula von der Leyen that the US will not help Europe if it was attacked and that it will quit NATO, according to [a recent claim](https://www.reuters.com/world/we-will-never-help-europe-under-attack-eu-official-cites-trump-saying-2024-01-10/) by Thierry Breton, a French commissioner who is responsible for the European Union's internal market. Specifically, Trump said:\n\n> You need to understand that if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you\n\n\n> By the way, NATO is dead, and we will leave, we will quit NATO\n\n\n> And by the way, you owe me $400 billion, because you didn’t pay, you Germans, what you had to pay for defense\n\nNo country has ever left NATO, willingly or not, since its inception." }, { "id": 21363, "title": "Will current use gifts to Harvard decrease for fiscal year 2025 relative to fiscal year 2023?", "short_title": "Donations to Harvard Decrease?", "url_title": "Donations to Harvard Decrease?", "slug": "donations-to-harvard-decrease", "author_id": 159953, "author_username": "JoeParrish", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:32:56.656691Z", "published_at": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.776064Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "closed", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21363, "title": "Will current use gifts to Harvard decrease for fiscal year 2025 relative to fiscal year 2023?", "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:32:56.656691Z", "open_time": "2024-03-18T20:51:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-21T20:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-21T20:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-10-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-06-01T16:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "closed", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and subsequent counterattack by Israel, student groups began demonstrating on campuses across America. Various events on Harvard were [accused of or associated with anti-Semitism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/10/10/psc-statement-backlash/), and the school's leadership came under scrutiny. This resulted in the [resignation of Harvard President Claudine Gay](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/business/claudine-gay-harvard-president-resigns/index.html) after less than a year in the role.\n\nWealthy investors and benefactors, such as Bill Ackman, have [pushed for/ threatened elimination of gifts to schools like Harvard](https://fortune.com/2023/12/13/bill-ackman-harvard-donation-coupang-antisemitism-president/), if university staff and leadership fail address what they perceive as a culture of anti-Semitism in academia.\n\nGifts for current use (as opposed to [gifts to the endowment](https://seas.harvard.edu/office-finance/accounting/current-use-gifts-and-endowments)) for fiscal year 2023 totaled $486 million. A decline of current year gifts in fiscal year 2025 might signal a successful effort by Ackman and his supporters to stem a flow of funds.\n\nHarvard's financial reports are published [here](https://finance.harvard.edu/annual-report). Its fiscal year [ends at the end of June](https://finance.fas.harvard.edu/close-fiscal-year), for example fiscal year 2023 ended at the end of June 2023. Fiscal year 2025 will end at the end of June 2025.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, upon the release of Harvard's [official financial results](https://finance.harvard.edu/annual-report) for fiscal year 2025, the amount raised from current use gifts is reported as less than $486 million (the amount of current use gifts for fiscal year 2023).", "fine_print": "Only current use gifts will be considered, this does not include [gifts to Harvard's endowment](https://seas.harvard.edu/office-finance/accounting/current-use-gifts-and-endowments).", "post_id": 21363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1748721459.008805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.656 ], "centers": [ 0.667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1748721459.008805, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 7, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.656 ], "centers": [ 0.667 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33299999999999996, 0.667 ], "means": [ 0.6712554366726444 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19286760478082793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40103743436730943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6638604391733991, 1.0, 0.5242685053741454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8217972504684123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29184345056281896, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287689.210534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287689.210534, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44457841719475844, 0.5554215828052416 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the Oct. 7 attack on Israel by Hamas and subsequent counterattack by Israel, student groups began demonstrating on campuses across America. Various events on Harvard were [accused of or associated with anti-Semitism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/10/10/psc-statement-backlash/), and the school's leadership came under scrutiny. This resulted in the [resignation of Harvard President Claudine Gay](https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/02/business/claudine-gay-harvard-president-resigns/index.html) after less than a year in the role.\n\nWealthy investors and benefactors, such as Bill Ackman, have [pushed for/ threatened elimination of gifts to schools like Harvard](https://fortune.com/2023/12/13/bill-ackman-harvard-donation-coupang-antisemitism-president/), if university staff and leadership fail address what they perceive as a culture of anti-Semitism in academia.\n\nGifts for current use (as opposed to [gifts to the endowment](https://seas.harvard.edu/office-finance/accounting/current-use-gifts-and-endowments)) for fiscal year 2023 totaled $486 million. A decline of current year gifts in fiscal year 2025 might signal a successful effort by Ackman and his supporters to stem a flow of funds.\n\nHarvard's financial reports are published [here](https://finance.harvard.edu/annual-report). Its fiscal year [ends at the end of June](https://finance.fas.harvard.edu/close-fiscal-year), for example fiscal year 2023 ended at the end of June 2023. Fiscal year 2025 will end at the end of June 2025." }, { "id": 21354, "title": "Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?", "short_title": "2024 Summer Olympics Terrorist Attack", "url_title": "2024 Summer Olympics Terrorist Attack", "slug": "2024-summer-olympics-terrorist-attack", "author_id": 164263, "author_username": "TheMann", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:01:31.820118Z", "published_at": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.141037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 69, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21354, "title": "Will a terrorist act occur in metropolitan France during the 2024 Summer Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-02-03T20:01:31.820118Z", "open_time": "2024-02-09T18:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-12T18:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-12T18:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.\nAt the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 100 injuries. This was classified as domestic terrorism. [Centennial Olympic Park bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing)\nAt the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, a knife attack at a Beijing market left [three people dead and over 60 injured]((https://www.start.umd.edu/news/olympics-and-terrorism). Although it did not occur during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea, the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 on November 29, 1987 was [considered to be a terrorist attack by North Korea]( https://www.history.com/news/1988-seoul-olympics-north-korea-terrorist-attack) in an attempt to get the Olympics moved from Seoul.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as Yes if a terrorist attack in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France) injures and/or kills at least one person, other than the terrorist(s), between, and inclusive of, the day of the Opening Ceremony (26 July 2024) and the day of the Closing Ceremony (11 August 2024). The question will resolve as No if the above does not happen.\n\nAn event will be considered a 'terrorist attack' if it is described as such by any agency of the State of France, or by the French President, Prime Minister, or a member of the Council of Ministers.", "fine_print": "1. The 'day of the Opening Ceremony' starts at 12:00:00 AM (Midnight) Paris time on 26 July 2024.\n2. The 'day of the Closing Ceremony' ends at 11:59:59 PM Paris time on 11 August 2024.\n3. The reason for including time before and after the above ceremonies is the gathering of a large number of people is a high-risk time as a terrorist event is most likely to occur outside of venues.\n4. The terrorist act can occur anywhere in [Metropolitan France](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_France). \n5. If only the terrorist(s) is injured or killed, this question will not resolve Yes. A non-terrorist must be a victim to resolve Yes.\n6. 'Terrorist attack' is not limited to any form of attack. Bomb, guns, knives, and other weapons have been used in terrorist attacks in Europe over the past 20 years.", "post_id": 21354, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723404709.637255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723404709.637255, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 68, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.124 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.09054647046600708 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0061954904951238, 3.9552719102127094, 0.3551877698067269, 1.3892181068168579, 0.0, 1.7000511757603705, 0.0, 0.43708213472388174, 0.8849953868387631, 0.057208863054134, 1.0153085086559235, 0.11492808191066167, 0.6466425724863939, 0.05209383699272445, 0.1711062530076502, 0.3560432436554951, 0.03367136597691028, 0.23316701369020337, 0.0, 0.12087117660761629, 0.48917350250786673, 0.4074887219478586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016194143319162562, 0.3387681937898877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48750283803233846, 0.2875923504881499, 0.0, 0.025376902702299184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025639130579011613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028558647718838943, 0.21992772921981402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06866972311929001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018250358339304155, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022958310465499978, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.022954107348006385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005267437638703229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0044369675217058565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 12.076026288212258, "coverage": 0.9997804883959801, "baseline_score": 51.173663188042326, "spot_peer_score": 16.400985220290046, "peer_archived_score": 12.076026288212258, "baseline_archived_score": 51.173663188042326, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.400985220290046 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723404709.676935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723404709.676935, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9933169180434811, 0.006683081956518893 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 164, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The most serious attack occurred at the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, Germany. Five of the hostage takers were killed, along with eleven members of the Israeli Olympic Team and one West German policeman.\nAt the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, a bombing at the Centennial Olympic Park resulted in one death and over 100 injuries. This was classified as domestic terrorism. [Centennial Olympic Park bombing](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Olympic_Park_bombing)\nAt the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, a knife attack at a Beijing market left [three people dead and over 60 injured]((https://www.start.umd.edu/news/olympics-and-terrorism). Although it did not occur during the 1988 Olympics in Seoul, Korea, the bombing of Korean Air Flight 858 on November 29, 1987 was [considered to be a terrorist attack by North Korea]( https://www.history.com/news/1988-seoul-olympics-north-korea-terrorist-attack) in an attempt to get the Olympics moved from Seoul." }, { "id": 21320, "title": "Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?", "short_title": "Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?", "url_title": "Israel-Hezbollah: 1000 deaths before 2025?", "slug": "israel-hezbollah-1000-deaths-before-2025", "author_id": 105951, "author_username": "Sylvain", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" } ], "created_at": "2024-02-01T14:34:48.406351Z", "published_at": "2024-02-02T14:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.384286Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-02T14:38:00Z", "comment_count": 76, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2673, "type": "question_series", "name": "Israel-Gaza Conflict", "slug": "israel-gaza", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-09T16:54:46Z", "close_date": "2024-10-09T16:54:46Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-03T01:57:36.394950Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21320, "title": "Will there be 1000 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2025?", "created_at": "2024-02-01T14:34:48.406351Z", "open_time": "2024-02-02T14:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-04T14:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-04T14:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T14:34:48Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T16:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T16:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T14:34:48Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-23T16:49:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\r\n\r\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\r\n\r\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after October 12, 2023 and before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that there have been 1000 or more deaths caused by armed conflict between the military forces or law enforcement personnel of Israel and Hezbollah.", "fine_print": "* Both combatant and non-combatant deaths count toward the total.\r\n* Deaths will be summed over the entirety of the period in question.\r\n* In the event death totals are reported but it is not clear which conflict the deaths occurred in (for example, if deaths of Israeli military members are reported in total and not disaggregated between those occurring in conflict with Hamas and those occurring in conflict with Hezbollah) Metaculus may use the available estimates to make a determination whether the threshold has been met.\r\n* Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\r\n* The median will be used if a range is provided. If estimates differ Metaculus may combine the estimates or select one it considers most credible, and may resolve the question as **Ambiguous** if the estimates differ substantially.", "post_id": 21320, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727108404.310736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727108404.310736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 171, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9758887143120597 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2048080079655825e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.811604294321778e-05, 0.0, 2.4247256334214048e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1832672189128315e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007486213973474391, 0.07512451448418916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024825962187876378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03964307383229932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002311216008996748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9587306029080045e-05, 0.002150927973566818, 0.022302013009042512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009174299769727208, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.7710464508203835e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002644512866526248, 0.0, 0.001714741569387518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00022797352120983977, 0.0009954826852269269, 0.020195401758981237, 0.04385693325972806, 0.0, 0.065183974337343, 0.0, 0.004321597156043366, 0.0, 0.03400195976808343, 0.0, 0.03074099909129769, 0.0009222613371663977, 0.008871248287790044, 0.0, 0.3370133389794917, 0.0017205533573061596, 0.3146095631941487, 0.03967636482124723, 0.032188150896856504, 0.2076793879689318, 0.018735968170503298, 0.000415846561415746, 0.38305828609817905, 0.15360862766888383, 1.3539252926402847, 0.07467341488255437, 0.6615348074082809, 1.8905763130175655, 18.805272236727514 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 8.0304603356475, "coverage": 0.702806022017514, "baseline_score": -1.8675916852885344, "spot_peer_score": -35.647490392806226, "peer_archived_score": 8.0304603356475, "baseline_archived_score": -1.8675916852885344, "spot_peer_archived_score": -35.647490392806226 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727108404.379676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727108404.379676, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 172, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.026098418061482054, 0.973901581938518 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 670, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the [October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Al-Aqsa_Flood), rocket and artillery fire [was also exchanged](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-hamas-war-will-iran-hezbollah-lebanon-rcna120046) between Israel and [Hezbollah](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah), a political party and militant group active in Lebanon, as well as [acting as a belligerent in the Syrian civil war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_involvement_in_the_Syrian_civil_war). The [US government considers Hezbollah (or Hizballah) to be a terrorist organization](https://www.state.gov/foreign-terrorist-organizations/).\r\n\r\nHezbollah has [expressed support](https://www.newsweek.com/hezbollah-issues-threat-israel-us-hamas-war-escalates-1832928) for Hamas' attack on Israel and issued threats to Israel, [raising concerns](https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/what-will-hezbollah-do-next-heres-how-the-hamas-israel-conflict-could-engulf-the-region/) about the possibility of larger scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.\r\n\r\nWe previously asked: [Will there be 400 or more deaths due to armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah before 2024?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19375/israel-hezbollah-conflict-400-deaths-by-2024/)" }, { "id": 21319, "title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2050?", "short_title": "US-China War Before 2050?", "url_title": "US-China War Before 2050?", "slug": "us-china-war-before-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [ { "id": 112036, "username": "TomL" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-31T21:32:42.410587Z", "published_at": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.661211Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21319, "title": "Will there be a US-China war before 2050?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T21:32:42.410587Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T21:34:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-04T21:34:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-04T21:34:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea.", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, a US-China war is defined as the US and China collectively suffering [at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/), as reported by credible news, government, or multi-national sources. Deaths in battles fought between the US and an ally of China or between China and an ally of the US will not count towards positive resolution. If this does not occur before January 1, 2050, this question will resolve as **No**.\n\nWe here define battle related deaths [as defined by the Uppsala University Department of Peace and Conflict Studies](https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/#tocjump_39091158521468405_5).\n\nResolution will come from reputable news sources, from official federal or military announcements, or from multinational institutions like the UN or NATO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21319, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756190910.54281, "end_time": 1783169295.174, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756190910.54281, "end_time": 1783169295.174, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.22829280685948683 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.07561306189923878, 0.6484019899789605, 0.3010722380634753, 0.01945816775464467, 0.29367946535715156, 1.596621629410633, 0.1441958114546953, 1.080422272699075, 0.025194092214829794, 0.0, 0.32783228557888233, 0.06730258227985148, 1.013621288429507, 0.6249752706799355, 0.0, 1.1760470642527783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.482133182571399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7014064565003941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09890509966589098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7170020928281433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9869690786241422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7813910202906105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2575373740337294, 0.0, 0.12082870651021416, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32507244182524914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002608200027234153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288237.590291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288237.590291, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 55, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9362815634781161, 0.06371843652188396 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 82, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Beginning with China's [entry to the nuclear club](https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-relations-china) in the 1960s and culminating most recently with the development of China's [naval power in the South China Sea](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-china-b20b3b72604728c2e3f7498e2f492cac) and the threats to Taiwan, the US and China have experienced increasingly tense foreign relations over the last several decades. In addition, the US and China recently entered into a [trade war](https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45899310) in 2018 at the behest of the former President Trump. Questions now arise on the potential for a US-China [cold war](https://thediplomat.com/2020/06/will-american-and-chinese-societies-support-a-new-type-of-cold-war/), or [military conflict](https://thediplomat.com/2021/06/emerging-military-technologies-and-a-future-taiwan-strait-conflict/) in the South China Sea." }, { "id": 21306, "title": "Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?", "short_title": "Atlantic Storms", "url_title": "Atlantic Storms", "slug": "atlantic-storms", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:54:42.405767Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.326705Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "comment_count": 23, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T06:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 44, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21306, "title": "Will the Atlantic basin see more than 18 named storms in the 2024 hurricane season?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:54:42.405767Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-08T06:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-10T06:55:03.070869Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [2023 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year#:~:text=The%20above%2Dnormal%202023%20Atlantic,in%20a%20year%20since%201950.), concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a potent El Nino. With 20 named storms, it's the fourth highest since 1950. Of these, seven escalated to hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status, surpassing the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.\nThe season **officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024**.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if more than 18 storms are officially named in the Atlantic basin during the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1, 2024 to November 30, 2024 according to the [National Hurricane Centre](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If the NHC does not name more than 18 storms before November 30, 2024, the question resolves \"No.\"", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1733007382.649597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1733007382.649597, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.11 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.16 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.89, 0.11 ], "means": [ 0.14631647959773236 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7184157751443578, 0.8570026340065788, 0.11096509564589224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5383061686336705, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 1.357021751907755, 1.2106750195973517, 0.4343762510013628, 0.1387803475283947, 0.0, 1.6366219955145396, 0.4315557279391698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0038586475818220903, 0.04535037156571558, 0.15458320800495146, 0.0, 0.06825837252413955, 1.0162546241594235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.40633218071331956, 0.5712612958305987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.005838829315397701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03353515913390628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.008023442444365229, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03328838488662604, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -29.57962486141861, "peer_score": 11.539230811399968, "coverage": 0.9941897497018762, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9941897497018762, "spot_peer_score": 0.05089202518733035, "baseline_archived_score": -29.57962486141861, "peer_archived_score": 11.539230811399968, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.05089202518733035 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288491.226153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288491.226153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761341596151092, 0.023865840384890792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [2023 Atlantic hurricane season](https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-ranks-4th-for-most-named-storms-in-year#:~:text=The%20above%2Dnormal%202023%20Atlantic,in%20a%20year%20since%201950.), concluding on November 30, stood out due to exceptionally warm Atlantic sea temperatures and a potent El Nino. With 20 named storms, it's the fourth highest since 1950. Of these, seven escalated to hurricanes, and three reached major hurricane status, surpassing the average of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.\nThe season **officially begins on June 1, 2024, and ends on November 30, 2024**." }, { "id": 21303, "title": "Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?", "short_title": "Etsy CEO 2029", "url_title": "Etsy CEO 2029", "slug": "etsy-ceo-2029", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:51:06.245020Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.718449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 4, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21303, "title": "Will Josh Silverman continue to be CEO of Etsy until 2029?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T14:51:06.245020Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:20:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:20:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:20:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Founded in 2005, [Etsy](https://www.etsy.com/) started as an online marketplace for handmade items. It transitioned to a public company in 2014, expanding to include factory-made products. The COVID pandemic brought a transaction surge, especially in customized masks. Etsy has seen frequent leadership changes, with Josh Silverman at the helm since 2017. While some users and sellers express discontent over Etsy's shift towards larger corporate entities and its accommodation of sex work-related products in response to platforms like OnlyFans, the company has nonetheless experienced revenue growth in recent years.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Josh Silverman serves continuously as CEO of Etsy from the launch of the question until January 1, 2029. 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Public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)?", "created_at": "2024-01-31T10:08:26.612033Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-03T04:36:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-03T04:36:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-14T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-14T14:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-14T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-18T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-18T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": false, "open_lower_bound": false, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Světová zdravotnická organizace (WHO) nemůže vyhlásit stav \"světové pandemie\", má nicméně právo vyhlásit tzv. \"public health emergency of international concern\" (PHEIC), která může rapidně vzrůstající riziko vzniku pandemie indikovat. Informace o PHEIC, Emergency Commitees, spouštění PHEIC prostřednictvím International Health Regulations (IHR) a souvisejících tématech se můžete dočíst například [zde](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees). V posledních letech byl PHEIC vyhlášen několikrát, jednalo se např. o následující případy:\n\nPrasečí chřipka/H1N1 (2009–2010)\n\nDětská obrna (2014–dodnes)\n\nEbola (2014–2016)\n\nZika virus (2016)\n\nKivu Ebola (2019–2020)\n\nCOVID-19 (2020–2023)\n\nMpox (2022–2023)\n\n\nPHEIC není omezený pouze na infekční choroby, ale může být vyhlášen také v případě nebezpečí na chemické nebo radioaktivní bázi.", "resolution_criteria": "Otázku vyhodnotíme podle oficiálních tiskových zpráv Světové zdravotnické organizace.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21296, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708279540.524071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.477 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708279540.524071, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "centers": [ 0.477 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.523, 0.477 ], "means": [ 0.4666801979693941 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7940766365951445, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.235533053562396, 0.0, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.8783683886933894, 1.038084450922088, 0.0, 0.6918778566200179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5450278037100404, 0.9039144894018473, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 1.433949572598725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9992782845827313, "peer_score": 0.55134343639303, "coverage": 0.9992782845827313, "baseline_score": -28.60133686906616, "spot_peer_score": 0.2823501654689783, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.55134343639303, "baseline_archived_score": -28.60133686906616, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.2823501654689783, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 33, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Světová zdravotnická organizace (WHO) nemůže vyhlásit stav \"světové pandemie\", má nicméně právo vyhlásit tzv. \"public health emergency of international concern\" (PHEIC), která může rapidně vzrůstající riziko vzniku pandemie indikovat. Informace o PHEIC, Emergency Commitees, spouštění PHEIC prostřednictvím International Health Regulations (IHR) a souvisejících tématech se můžete dočíst například [zde](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees). V posledních letech byl PHEIC vyhlášen několikrát, jednalo se např. o následující případy:\n\nPrasečí chřipka/H1N1 (2009–2010)\n\nDětská obrna (2014–dodnes)\n\nEbola (2014–2016)\n\nZika virus (2016)\n\nKivu Ebola (2019–2020)\n\nCOVID-19 (2020–2023)\n\nMpox (2022–2023)\n\n\nPHEIC není omezený pouze na infekční choroby, ale může být vyhlášen také v případě nebezpečí na chemické nebo radioaktivní bázi." }, { "id": 21280, "title": "Will the United States strike the Iranian military before February 7, 2024?", "short_title": "US Strikes Against Iran in Early February?", "url_title": "US Strikes Against Iran in Early February?", "slug": "us-strikes-against-iran-in-early-february", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-30T20:23:53.133953Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.838031Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": 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The length of the pause does not matter.\n\nThe question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "The “size” in “pausing all training runs above a certain size” does not matter. In other words, this question is about a blanket pause on all runs above some size, whatever that size is. 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"default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' \"collective self defense\":\n\n“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.\n\nAny such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”\n\nArticle 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, issued a statement on September 12, 2001 that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.\n\nFurther reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if after February 1, 2024 and before January 1, 2025, the North Atlantic Council takes NATO Article 5 action, according to credible sources.\n\nNATO Article 5 action is said to be taken if the North Atlantic Council publicly affirms that there has been an attack on a NATO member which is regarded as an action covered by Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty.", "fine_print": "If Article 5 is amended and no longer holds a similar meaning to its meaning on January 29, 2024, based on the judgement of admins, then the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21264, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735653718.870498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735653718.870498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 37, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011423603145765394 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.314203311381395, 1.7828113774537795, 1.0979346054871166, 0.0, 0.026429544426075636, 0.021350191862830815, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3386586773479101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04480921982561351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016860822722490777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03216066299931179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.30818217549408, "peer_score": 7.107629421005997, "coverage": 0.9980793225278903, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9980793225278903, "spot_peer_score": 13.468303500708878, "spot_baseline_score": 94.11063109464314, "baseline_archived_score": 98.30818217549408, "peer_archived_score": 7.107629421005997, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.468303500708878, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 94.11063109464314 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287803.63311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287803.63311, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Article 5](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm#:~:text=%E2%80%9CThe%20Parties%20agree%20that%20an,by%20Article%2051%20of%20the) of the North Atlantic treaty outlines the terms of members' \"collective self defense\":\n\n“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.\n\nAny such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security.”\n\nArticle 5 action was taken for the first and only time after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attack on the US. NATO Secretary General, Lord Robertson, issued a statement on September 12, 2001 that the attack would be covered under Article 5 if it was confirmed that the attack was directed from abroad, which was [affirmed on October 2, 2001](https://www.nato.int/docu/update/2001/1001/e1002a.htm). This resulted in the deployment of an international anti-terrorism task force to Afghanistan.\n\nFurther reading can be found [on NATO's website](https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_110496.htm)." }, { "id": 21256, "title": "Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?", "short_title": "Fury vs Usyk", "url_title": "Fury vs Usyk", "slug": "fury-vs-usyk", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-28T09:55:57.874336Z", "published_at": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.706445Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21256, "title": "Will Tyson Fury defeat Oleksandr Usyk to become the Undisputed Heavyweight Boxing Champion?", "created_at": "2024-01-28T09:55:57.874336Z", "open_time": "2024-02-26T02:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-29T02:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-29T02:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-18T23:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-17T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The heavyweight matchup is scheduled to take place on 18 May 2024 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers. \n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \n\n>[Tyson Luke Fury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Fury), \"Gypsy King\" (born 12 August 1988) is a British professional boxer. He has held the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight title since 2020. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 9 in (206 cm)\nReach\t85 in (216 cm)\nStance\tOrthodox\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t35\nWins\t34\nWins by KO\t24\nDraws\t1\n\n\n\n>[Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Usyk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Usyk) (Ukrainian: Олекса́ндр Олекса́ндрович У́сик; born 17 January 1987) is a Ukrainian professional boxer. He has held multiple world championships in two weight classes, including the unified heavyweight titles since 2021, and the Ring magazine title since 2022. He has also held the International Boxing Organization (IBO) title since 2021. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 3 in (191 cm)\nReach\t78 in (198 cm)\nStance\tSouthpaw\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t21\nWins\t21\nWins by KO\t14", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if Tyson Fury wins the boxing bout against Oleksandr Usyk. It will resolve No if Usyk wins or there is a draw. 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This fight will be for the [undisputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Undisputed_championship_(boxing)) heavyweight champion. Both fighters are currently undefeated in their professional careers. \n\nAccording to Wikipedia: \n\n>[Tyson Luke Fury](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tyson_Fury), \"Gypsy King\" (born 12 August 1988) is a British professional boxer. He has held the World Boxing Council (WBC) heavyweight title since 2020. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 9 in (206 cm)\nReach\t85 in (216 cm)\nStance\tOrthodox\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t35\nWins\t34\nWins by KO\t24\nDraws\t1\n\n\n\n>[Oleksandr Oleksandrovych Usyk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oleksandr_Usyk) (Ukrainian: Олекса́ндр Олекса́ндрович У́сик; born 17 January 1987) is a Ukrainian professional boxer. He has held multiple world championships in two weight classes, including the unified heavyweight titles since 2021, and the Ring magazine title since 2022. He has also held the International Boxing Organization (IBO) title since 2021. \n\n>Height\t6 ft 3 in (191 cm)\nReach\t78 in (198 cm)\nStance\tSouthpaw\nBoxing record\nTotal fights\t21\nWins\t21\nWins by KO\t14" }, { "id": 21251, "title": "Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?", "short_title": "UNRWA Staff Involved in Oct 7 Hamas Attacks?", "url_title": "UNRWA Staff Involved in Oct 7 Hamas Attacks?", "slug": "unrwa-staff-involved-in-oct-7-hamas-attacks", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-27T00:26:52.153949Z", "published_at": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.278591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 57, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21251, "title": "Will an independent review find UNRWA staff involvement in the October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks?", "created_at": "2024-01-27T00:26:52.153949Z", "open_time": "2024-02-01T20:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-04T20:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-04T20:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T07:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-24T16:42:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "ambiguous", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an agency dedicated to supporting Palestinian refugees, recently faced serious allegations when [Israel accused](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68104203) 12 of its employees of involvement in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack. \n\nThese allegations prompted the U.S. to pause additional funding to UNRWA, marking a significant turn in the Biden administration's approach to the agency. In response to these allegations, UNRWA's chief, Philippe Lazzarini, took immediate action by terminating the contracts of the accused staff members and initiating an independent investigation of the claims. \n\nAdditionally, the United Nations Secretary-General [announced](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145942) an \"urgent and comprehensive independent review of UNRWA\" to address the allegations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2025, an independent review commissioned by the United Nations confirms the involvement of United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA) staff in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks.", "fine_print": "- \"Involvement\" is defined as substantively supporting, facilitating or participating in the planning or execution of the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas attacks. Mere acquaintance or indirect association with the attackers without evidence of material contribution to the attacks will not be considered as \"involvement.\"\n- If, as of the resolution date of this question, the independent review has yielded only preliminary or partial findings, the question may still resolve \"Yes\" if such preliminary or partial findings explicitly state that there is credible evidence of UNRWA staff involvement in the attacks.", "post_id": 21251, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 56, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.30216034089620786 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8425545920654098, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013286097205509028, 1.1138055724109919, 0.22688437022518046, 0.646956603921349, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16276424848419233, 0.0, 0.16098235374781072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5338394326564748, 0.06124341082421378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2674291063988385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3138753164782079, 0.0, 0.0, 1.427032083479478, 0.0, 1.3508425987144284, 0.0, 0.7104289439189292, 0.06805199387035807, 0.0, 0.4273870684649609, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39618411090454325, 1.1593238722178194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09215390124464654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2898717268244653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33953082659674816, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004155532194542278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006513847192233464, 0.0, 0.3669337095617011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35817494220151597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46744343959454415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08346609532897402, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4960965120584363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08568580771817419 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727193977.744703, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9865672957207535, 0.013432704279246444 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 269, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The United Nations Relief and Works Agency (UNRWA), an agency dedicated to supporting Palestinian refugees, recently faced serious allegations when [Israel accused](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68104203) 12 of its employees of involvement in the Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas terrorist attack. \n\nThese allegations prompted the U.S. to pause additional funding to UNRWA, marking a significant turn in the Biden administration's approach to the agency. In response to these allegations, UNRWA's chief, Philippe Lazzarini, took immediate action by terminating the contracts of the accused staff members and initiating an independent investigation of the claims. \n\nAdditionally, the United Nations Secretary-General [announced](https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/01/1145942) an \"urgent and comprehensive independent review of UNRWA\" to address the allegations." } ] }
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