Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2800
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2820", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2780", "results": [ { "id": 26572, "title": "Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-usa-sweden-england-or-france-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.189520Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.411933Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 100, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26572, "title": "Will USA, Sweden, England, or France win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.189520Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if USA, Sweden, England, or France is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26572, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003411.470719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003411.470719, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.57 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43000000000000005, 0.57 ], "means": [ 0.5112710013125917 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2501577142572954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.1154000130630344, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3884649765480077, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6078097139925314, 0.8379487954001852, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 1.0891361343948138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8202768564294831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31721629902075316, 0.06284138175988364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 18.903382439001685, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 18.903382439001685 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003411.520611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003411.520611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5332189374370192, 0.4667810625629808 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26571, "title": "Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-germany-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.019786Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.335543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 95, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26571, "title": "Will Germany win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:28.019786Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Germany is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26571, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003537.421365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003537.421365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20817421599512054 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.11777121751898838, 0.5243776579668233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.013162951709963655, 0.6980965657768824, 0.04510278262054179, 1.2418028211103138, 0.31286391742790765, 0.1976105664975124, 0.357644394566907, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.8273367476496194, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1892973143189134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003537.459251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003537.459251, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9242060790440152, 0.07579392095598486 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 96, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26570, "title": "Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-poland-win-the-2024-warhammer-40000-world-team-championship", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.804748Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.565380Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 89, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26570, "title": "Will Poland win the 2024 Warhammer 40,000 World Team Championship?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.804748Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-12T00:11:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if Poland is the winner of the WTC 2024 as announced on the official site or the official social media of the organisation.", "fine_print": "Seeding group 2 includes:\n\n* Canada\n* Belgium\n* New Zealand\n* Scotland\n* Denmark\n* Switzerland\n* Greece\n* Italy\n* Ireland\n* Finland\n\nSeeding group 3 includes:\n\n* South Africa\n* Romania\n* Norway\n* Iceland\n* Wales\n* Northern Ireland\n* Israel\n* Czechia\n* Latvia\n* Bulgaria\n\nSeeding group 4 includes:\n\n* Portugal\n* Luxembourg\n* Cyprus\n* Mexico\n* China\n* Andorra\n* Singapore/Thailand\n* South Korea\n* Slovakia\n* Malta\n\nFor the purposes of resolving this question, potential later changes to the groups will not affect question resolution.", "post_id": 26570, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003486.996183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003486.996183, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.22683795914719573 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.5243776579668233, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 1.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.48289485166246965, 0.0, 1.0881065096574805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10134174905292345, 0.1976105664975124, 0.13093416922895204, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.16257931202371395, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.773244756044359, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 67.80719051126377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 67.80719051126377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003487.03095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003487.03095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8975646624660103, 0.10243533753398969 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Warhammer 40,000 is a miniature wargame produced by Games Workshop. Set in the far future, players collect, assemble, and paint miniature figures representing warriors, creatures, and vehicles from various factions. Players then pit their armies against each other on a tabletop battlefield. Warhammer 40,000 is currently the [most popular](https://icv2.com/print/article/56556) miniature wargame in the world.\n\nEach year, the World Team Championship (WTC) is organized, where 8-player teams from around the world compete against each other. The teams are separated into 4 seeding groups based on past performance. In the group stage of the tournament, 10 groups are formed with 4 teams each (one from each seeding group). Group stage performance determines the overall ranking among teams, which then compete in a further 4 games following a [Swiss format](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swiss-system_tournament). The team with the most total points from the group and Swiss stages is crowned the winner.\n\nThis year, the WTC takes place in Mechelen, Belgium from August 8th to 11th. 40 national teams are competing, including 5 first-time competitors: Andorra, China, Mexico, Singapore/Thailand, and South Korea. The full list of teams and seeding groups can be found [here](https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=847246644093139). Past performance can be found [here](https://worldteamchampionship.com/about/history/)." }, { "id": 26569, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-atlantic-oceans-daily-mean-sea-surface-temperature-surpass-2023s-record-peak-temperature-before-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.598170Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.524054Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 107, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26569, "title": "Will the Atlantic Ocean's daily mean sea surface temperature surpass 2023's record peak temperature before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.598170Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-06T19:26:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2σ level of the 1982-2011 mean.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [\"Daily Sea Surface Temperature, North Atlantic\" chart](https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/sst_daily/)—accessible when choosing \"North Atlantic\" from the \"Area Selection\" dropdown menu at the link—shows the 2024 line graph surpassing 2023's peak temperature record of 25.4 C set on August 31, 2023, for any day before October 1, 2024. The question will resolve when the data for September 30 is first available on the chart and accessed by Metaculus.", "fine_print": "ClimateReanalyzer's chart runs on a 1-to-2 day lag. Secondly, all data is preliminary for two weeks. For the sake of this question, we are using the preliminary data for the resolution.", "post_id": 26569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003359.300328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003359.300328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.6988940169762602 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44760345783570343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4061712190803831, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.645253581397802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.7380461561860945, 0.3678794411714424, 0.5552630613399778, 0.03493560780589553, 0.0, 1.8684262845078419, 0.0, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5514283385260055, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0458395768039928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6115758642406598, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -100.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -100.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003359.343848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003359.343848, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.35943724197433435, 0.6405627580256656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 108, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From March 5, 2023 to April 29, 2024, [the Atlantic Ocean's daily sea surface temperature was at record highs for 421 days.](https://www.axios.com/2024/05/01/north-atlantic-ocean-temperature-streak-ends) \n\nThis record heat is particularly noticeable in the tropical Atlantic where over [90% of the region is experiencing record or near-record warm sea surface temperatures for late May.](https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2024/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-record-breaking-heat-in-the-atlantic/)\n\nAs of this writing on June 24, 2024, the daily mean sea surface temperature for the North Atlantic has been on par with 2023's temperature and above the 2σ level of the 1982-2011 mean." }, { "id": 26568, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-have-control-of-chasiv-yar-on-october-1-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.100598Z", "published_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:10.780535Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 106, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 36, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26568, "title": "Will Russia have control of Chasiv Yar on October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:43:27.100598Z", "open_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-26T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the status of these coordinates on the Institute for the Study of War's [Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) when accessed by Metaculus on October 1, 2024:\n\n48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E \n\nIf this point on the map is under Russian control on that date, this question will resolve as **Yes**. If it is not under Russian control, it will resolve as **No**.\n\nDETAILED INSTRUCTIONS: \n\n1. Go to the ISW map page [here](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) \n2. Scroll down to the interactive map.\n3. If the search box is not visible, click the 'X' on the top of the legend overlay on the left side of the map to close it.\n4. Paste these coordinates into the search box: 48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\n\nThis question will resolve as **Yes** if the location is marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes the following, generally with shades of pink, red or yellow:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control \n- Assessed Russian Advance in Ukraine \n- Claimed Russian Territory in Ukraine\n\nThis question will resolve as **No** if the location is *not* marked on the map as Russian-controlled. This includes:\n\n- Areas with no coloration\n- Areas marked as one of the following, generally in shades of blue: Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours, Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives, or Ukrainian Partisan Warfare.", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the coordinates by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"48°35'13.7\"N 37°50'02.1\"E\".\n\n- In addition to the categories listed in main part Resolution Criteria, any other categories created by ISW after the launch of this question that indicate Russian control of the location will also count as Yes.", "post_id": 26568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003345.275988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003345.275988, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5815000094262547 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028709986438327752, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5592359492000212, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05812797574670697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2930099684716008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014010486522538886, 0.0, 0.9013818851400481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8444682791317178, 0.5662623408993923, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06833212923320346, 0.13533528323661267, 0.7547921743264563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17249978086131545, 0.041937583413620604, 0.2699322600469583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9195046140969454, 0.0, 1.2590650182555156, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49912145522409046, 0.0, 0.7745776596494143, 0.2999413040343729, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722003345.327563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722003345.327563, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5986014529034778, 0.4013985470965223 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 107, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 28, 2024, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) [reported](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-june-28-2024) Russian troops advancing in the easternmost parts of Chasiv Yar, with significant fighting ongoing in the area. \n\n[Reporting suggests](https://www.politico.eu/article/russian-victory-over-ukranian-key-city-chasiv-yar-jeopardize-entire-donetsk-region/) that the Ukrainian military sees the city of Chasiv Yar as strategically significant due to its elevation, and that the capture of the city could jeopardize the remaining key cities in the [Donetsk oblast](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_Oblast). \n\nUkraine [previously said](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/why-is-russia-trying-capture-ukrainian-town-chasiv-yar-2024-04-16/) that Russia aimed to capture the city by May 9 for its Victory Day holiday, which Russia failed to do. According to the [Associated Press](https://ny1.com/nyc/all-boroughs/ap-top-news/2024/06/25/russia-keeps-up-the-front-line-pressure-before-ukraine-receives-a-boost-from-western-military-aid) on June 25, 2024, the Russian military is making a new push for the area:\n\n>Relentless Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions defending the strategically important eastern town of Chasiv Yar are disrupting troop rotations and the delivery of some supplies, soldiers in the area say.\n\n>Russian troops are seeking to press their advantage in troop numbers and weaponry before Ukrainian forces are bulked up by promised new Western military aid that is already trickling to the front line, analysts say.\n\nPlease see also Wikipedia: [Battle of Chasiv Yar](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Chasiv_Yar)" }, { "id": 26555, "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-usa-win-more-gold-than-silver-medals-at-the-paris-2024-olympics", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.769051Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.298614Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26555, "title": "Will the USA win more Gold than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.769051Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. It involves a range of different events across multiple sports.\n\nAt the Olympic Games, Gold, Silver and Bronze medals are awarded to 1st, 2nd and 3rd place in each event. (In some events two Bronze medals are awarded mostly combat sports).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the United States Olympic Team wins more Gold medals than Silver medals at the Paris 2024 Olympics.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26555, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917019.392051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917019.392051, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.78 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.84 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.21999999999999997, 0.78 ], "means": [ 0.758621693299968 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08792237473957415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.14727515603083496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.1538804463707397, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.0, 1.1091217998181846, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.6673830178992819, 0.0, 0.9815903307350607, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.8003336271299532, 0.0, 1.2897926863638505, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 1.1177712175189884, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -118.44245711374276, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -118.44245711374276 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917019.46408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917019.46408, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37070568449726304, 0.629294315502737 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The 2024 Olympic Games is a sporting competition which takes place every four years. 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The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. A possible third one, CNEOS 2014-01-08, is [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08). \n\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera C. Rubin Observatory](https://rubinobservatory.org/) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a newly discovered interstellar object receives an [\"I\" designation](https://minorplanetcenter.net//mpec/K17/K17V17.html) from the [IAU Minor Planet Center](https://minorplanetcenter.net/). That is, regardless of any available \"[precovery](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Precovery)\" data, this question resolves when the formal \"interstellar\" label is given. If no objects are given this designation before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26554, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917043.391515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917043.391515, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.21 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.35031313716060863 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.037065342746035734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3404729424039941, 0.07560105912010007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.2801509562747174, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1538804463707397, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1781455383582426, 0.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3065228090292123, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33650988586059405, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9803043605457495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5778677609141162, 0.0, 0.00869886565297425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2952604968778372, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013162951709963655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917043.430428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917043.430428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7951619250311612, 0.20483807496883882 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The first [interstellar object](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interstellar_object), 1I/2017 (['Oumuamua](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/%CA%BBOumuamua)) was discovered by the Pan-STARRS survey in 2017. The second interstellar object, [2I/Borisov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2I/Borisov) was discovered at the MARGO observatory in Crimea in August 2019. A possible third one, CNEOS 2014-01-08, is [disputed](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CNEOS_2014-01-08). \n\nAlthough only two Solar System interlopers of definitive interstellar origin have been discovered thus far, next generation sky surveys such as the [Vera C. Rubin Observatory](https://rubinobservatory.org/) are expected to find more such objects. Nonetheless, the population and occurrence of these objects is relatively unconstrained.\n\n" }, { "id": 26553, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-hawaiian-electric-company-file-for-bankruptcy-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.288872Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.194115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26553, "title": "Will Hawaiian Electric Company file for bankruptcy before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.288872Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T22:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if there is an 8-K filing stating that the entity filing with the SEC under the Central Index Key (CIK) number 46207 ([here](https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=46207&owner=exclude)) has filed or intends to file a petition in bankruptcy court under Chapter 11 reorganization or Chapter 7 liquidation before September 30, 2024.\n", "fine_print": "This question concerns Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., not its parent company Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. Therefore, if Hawaiian Electric Company files for bankruptcy but not its parent, this would resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 26553, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916945.194091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.519 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916945.194091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.28 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.519 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.3981493397459749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028664445367929763, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7877610458160232, 0.576612460337097, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7436618965167657, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8402148505771252, 0.0, 1.0984928773439, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13548800447350534, 0.0, 0.29804591930012875, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5223486041889278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.29638957247389086, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5540371995329351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2321088487323415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28697040130296847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02168896019109956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916945.229399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916945.229399, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7698113336504492, 0.2301886663495508 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hawaiian Electric Company, Inc., is owned by Hawaiian Electric Industries, a holding company which also owns American Savings Bank. (See 2022 annual report pdf [here](https://s2.q4cdn.com/268623243/files/doc_financials/2022/ar/Hawaiian-Electric-2022-Annual-Report.pdf)).\n\nThe August 2023 wildfires in Lahaina, Hawaii killed at least 106 people, according to the latest [update](https://www.mauicounty.gov/CivicAlerts.aspx?AID=12710) from the County of Maui. A class-action lawsuit alleges that the electric company “chose not to deenergize their power lines during the High Wind Watch and Red Flag Warning conditions for Maui before the Lahaina Fire started.\" The stock price plunged 47% in the week following the fires, to a 13-year low. [(CNN story)](https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/14/investing/hawaiian-electric-maui-fires-lawsuit/index.html)\n\nIn an 8-K filed August 18, 2023, the company [stated](https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/46207/000035470723000071/exhibit991.htm) that although it is seeking advice from \"various experts\" including restructuring advisors, its \"goal is not to restructure the company but to endure as a financially strong utility that Maui and this state need.\"\n\nIn recent years, other electric utility companies have gone bankrupt in the wake of disasters. California's largest utility, Pacific Gas and Electric, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2019/01/29/689591066/california-power-provider-pg-e-files-for-bankruptcy-in-wake-of-fire-lawsuits) bankruptcy in January 2019, following the Camp Fire of November 2018. The Brazos Electric Power Cooperative, which is the largest power cooperative in Texas, [filed](https://www.npr.org/2021/03/01/972408584/texas-energy-co-op-files-for-bankruptcy-after-storm-high-bill) for bankruptcy in March 2021, following the February 2021 Texas icestorm." }, { "id": 26552, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-senolytic-therapy-be-approved-for-commercial-sale-by-the-us-fda-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.108748Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.461499Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26552, "title": "Will a senolytic therapy be approved for commercial sale by the US FDA before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:37.108748Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the United States Food and Drug Administration (or its successor body if current FDA ceases to exist) approves a product marketed as a senolytic therapy or drug (whether a small molecule drug, gene therapy or other class of clinical intervention) for commercial sale in the US before September 30, 2024. The approval must be given before September 30, 2024, but the actual sale of any product is not required before that date.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, an intervention will be regarded as a \"'senolytic therapy\" if it is marketed by its producer as an intervention whose purpose includes the selective removal of senescent cells, and medical evidence accepted by the FDA demonstrates that it does so.\n\nThis question will resolve as No if no such therapy is approved before September 30, 2024. If the FDA is dissolved before approval is granted, and no agency of the US government with the responsibility for granting regulatory approval for drugs and medical interventions is created to succeed it before September 30, 2024, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.\n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26552, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916958.02487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916958.02487, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.07500000000000001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.925, 0.07500000000000001 ], "means": [ 0.11260220343854825 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6403200895653883, 0.9852337836841221, 0.027463871070039274, 1.0, 0.16026094357950826, 2.0610132779402073, 0.0, 0.6639866189346225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5437486816697201, 0.0, 0.486418802296313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9238180217565535, 0.0, 0.093775628604687, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1541237864259153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.04966152601580348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09103305858692605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 88.75252707415875, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 88.75252707415875 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916958.061833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916958.061833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9761873058219698, 0.023812694178030242 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, a number of ventures have begun work on translating the results of some promising laboratory studies on senolytic agents into medicine for humans.\n\nA senolytic agent is an agent introduced to the body for the purpose of selectively eliminating senescent cells from the patient. Senescent cells are cells in the body that no longer divide, having reached their Hayflick limit, but which do not automatically apoptose. \n\nThese senescent cells linger in the body triggering inflammatory responses, reducing the effectiveness of the immune system, and they are associated with many age-related diseases including type 2 diabetes and atherosclerosis which present a high disease and mortality burden, especially in the most-developed countries in which age-related diseases constitute the overwhelming majority of causes of death among populations.\n\nSenescent cells are thought to play an important part in the aging process, and thus it is theorised that selectively removing these senescent cells would significantly improve healthspan (and perhaps, alone or as part of a combinatorial therapy, significantly extend lifespan).\n\nOne major player in this quickly developing area of medicine is [Unity Biotechnology](https://unitybiotechnology.com/). [Its pipeline](https://unitybiotechnology.com/pipeline/) includes several drugs currently in the lead optimization phase, with UBX0101 having this year entered Phase 1 of a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, FDA-approved clinical trial. \n\nYou can find out more about these first trials, and more about senolytics in general, [here]( https://www.leafscience.org/the-first-rejuvenation-therapy-reaches-human-trials/)" }, { "id": 26551, "title": "Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-revolut-obtain-a-uk-banking-license-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.964973Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:05.966463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26551, "title": "Will Revolut obtain a UK banking license before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.964973Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T18:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded. Neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like Nubank, which is currently valued over $100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in Latin America. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\nRevolut has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut [has a banking licence](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/) for the EEA (European Economic Area), which was granted by the Bank of Lithuania. However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK, limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as an \"[e-money institution](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/)\" in the UK.\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/) into one. However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6).\n\nAdditional resources: \n\n- From the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if before September 30, 2024, Revolut secures a [banking license](https://www.fca.org.uk/firms/financial-services-register) from the UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), either directly or through indirect means such as authorisation to acquire another bank or company already holding a UK banking license.\n\nThe question resolves based on any formal announcement from the FCA (or other UK regulatory entity able to grant a banking license) or from other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Revolut will be obtaining a banking license. This must be a full license (i.e. not a provisional one).\n\nIf no such announcement is made before September 30, 2024, thes question will resolve negatively. \n", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26551, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916973.031641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.875 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916973.031641, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5833333333333334 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.875 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6708439499654368 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43563441074387765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07712539708584276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016590897335947853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.7230713684656842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05895670636563755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16311972700051347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.01207354803198191, 1.0610311921908029, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2294539435535619, 0.0, 0.7166072563239869, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9252160512788571, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2851363590555764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -73.69655941662059, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -73.69655941662059 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721916973.071186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721916973.071186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6634999534573549, 0.33650004654264515 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Technology has transformed many areas of the financial industry: [high frequency trading firms](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-frequency_trading) have transformed the ways stocks and other securities are traded. Neobrokers like Robinhood or Freetrade have changed the way retail investors participate in the stock market and neobanks like Nubank, which is currently valued over $100 billion, has grown into one of the most popular financial brands in Latin America. Revolut, born in the UK, has the ambition of building a global super app, with a core focus on financial services.\n\nRevolut has grown incredibly since its founding in 2015 and now some report over 6M users in the UK (and over 30M globally). Revolut [has a banking licence](https://help.revolut.com/help/more/legal-topics/is-revolut-a-bank/) for the EEA (European Economic Area), which was granted by the Bank of Lithuania. However, the company has failed to obtain a banking license in the UK, limiting its ability to offer certain products and services to its customers. It currently operates as an \"[e-money institution](https://www.revolut.com/blog/post/can-you-use-revolut-as-a-bank-account/)\" in the UK.\n\nTwo of the main concerns seem to have been the company's management of anti-money laundering (AML) risks and its complex capital structure. It was announced in October 2023 that the company had reached an agreement with its shareholders about [collapsing all of its share classes](https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/revolut-strikes-share-deal-with-softbank-remove-barrier-uk-licence-ft-2023-10-03/) into one. However, issues around its AML track record were still being mentioned in the press as recently as [September 2023](https://www.ft.com/content/2faf1799-78d9-4316-8e1d-590d2c601ac6).\n\nAdditional resources: \n\n- From the FT, [Will Revolut ever get a British banking licence?](https://www.ft.com/content/6d2eef34-d414-49c7-8557-c43a3d9ab803)\n\n[What Revolut’s attempt to secure a UK banking licence could mean for its current customers and for the ‘unbanked’](https://theconversation.com/what-revoluts-attempt-to-secure-a-uk-banking-licence-could-mean-for-its-current-customers-and-for-the-unbanked-215196)\n" }, { "id": 26550, "title": "Will SpaceX's Super Heavy booster make contact with the catch tower during the landing phase of Starship integrated flight test 5?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacexs-super-heavy-booster-make-contact-with-the-catch-tower-during-the-landing-phase-of-starship-integrated-flight-test-5", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.714715Z", "published_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.293207Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 57, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26550, "title": "Will SpaceX's Super Heavy booster make contact with the catch tower during the landing phase of Starship integrated flight test 5?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T21:37:36.714715Z", "open_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-25T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to the NSF space news site](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-preparations-tower-catch-flight-5/):\n\n>Many signs point to a possible catch attempt on the fifth flight of Starship. Elon Musk did post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he thought there should be a catch attempt on Flight 5. A new communications license from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has language that states there will either be a soft ocean landing like on the last flight or a catch attempt at the orbital launch site.\n\nAs of July 22, 2024, the fifth flight of Starship [is expected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_5) in August 2024. \n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk has [dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. \n\nOn June 6, 2024, Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1798732390313218305): \n\n>I think we should try to catch the booster with the mechazilla arms next flight!", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, during integrated flight test 5 (IFT-5), SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with a [launch and catch tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video), and the booster makes contact with the tower during the landing attempt. If no such attempt and contact is made during IFT-5, the question will resolve as **No**. If IFT-5 does not occur before October 1, 2024, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "* The question will resolve as **Yes** if Super Heavy booster makes any physical contact at all with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where the booster approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n\n* If IFT-5 occurs but the booster is destroyed before the landing attempt, the question will resolve as **No**.\n\n* IFT-5 will be taken to mean the next launch of a Starship stacked on top of Super Heavy booster. An aborted launch before the rocket leaves the pad will not count as IFT-5, so long as IFT-5 can be rescheduled for a later date. For example, if IFT-5 is attempted and the rocket blows up on the pad, that will count as a completed IFT-5 and the question will resolve as **No**. But if IFT-5 is attempted and the countdown is aborted without the rocket leaving the pad, and the launch occurs at an attempt a week later, that attempt will count as IFT-5.", "post_id": 26550, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5831258961753086 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3937762559534268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7685977471107392, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.027463871070039274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007978922554691365, 0.0, 0.09103305858692605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0187036868702393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04966152601580348, 0.3232295721582489, 0.16598497756774988, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.8852253901575815, 0.0, 0.9871667086087061, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 1.1237744268814007, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5579156008453386, 0.0, 0.01207354803198191, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721917002.026661, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5151759898883079, 0.4848240101116921 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to the NSF space news site](https://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2024/06/starship-preparations-tower-catch-flight-5/):\n\n>Many signs point to a possible catch attempt on the fifth flight of Starship. Elon Musk did post on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter, that he thought there should be a catch attempt on Flight 5. A new communications license from the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has language that states there will either be a soft ocean landing like on the last flight or a catch attempt at the orbital launch site.\n\nAs of July 22, 2024, the fifth flight of Starship [is expected](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_integrated_flight_test_5) in August 2024. \n\n[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. SpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk has [dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. \n\nOn June 6, 2024, Musk [tweeted](https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1798732390313218305): \n\n>I think we should try to catch the booster with the mechazilla arms next flight!" }, { "id": 26543, "title": "Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning?", "short_title": "EPA Regulations Struck Down by 2027?", "url_title": "EPA Regulations Struck Down by 2027?", "slug": "epa-regulations-struck-down-by-2027", "author_id": 123948, "author_username": "pedroacosta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T20:07:20.957451Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.651227Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T16:53:50.941573Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-15T16:53:50.941573Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26543, "title": "Before 2027, will a federal court rule in favor of a challenge to EPA regulations, basing the decision on Chevron's overturning?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T20:07:20.957451Z", "open_time": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-03T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.\n\nThe Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nNumerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.\n\nThis question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2027, credible sources report that a U.S. federal court (including the Supreme Court, Courts of Appeals, or District Courts) has issued a ruling that:\n\n- Strikes down, invalidates, or significantly limits the scope of any Clean Air Act regulations promulgated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and\n\n- Explicitly cites the Supreme Court's June 2024 decision overturning the Chevron doctrine as a substantial factor in its reasoning.\n\nThe court's decision must be a final ruling, not a preliminary injunction or procedural order.\nIf no such ruling is issued before January 1, 2027, the question resolves as \"No\".", "fine_print": "Examples of EPA regulations stemming from the Clean Air Act could include, but are not limited to, regulations related to:\n\n- National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS),\n- New Source Performance Standards (NSPS),\n- New Source Review (NSR),\n- Greenhouse gas regulation under the Act.\n\nAny later court rulings once the criteria for Yes have been met are immaterial to the resolution of this question.\n\nMetaculus will not conduct an exhaustive search of all relevant publications when resolving the question and will determine resolution based on information and reporting available via standard web searches.", "post_id": 26543, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727361301.897645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727361301.897645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "centers": [ 0.85 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.87 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.15000000000000002, 0.85 ], "means": [ 0.8295255329829899 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.701700440519318, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5726661189940503, 0.0, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.1020785627401981, "coverage": 0.03934755280945734, "baseline_score": 1.6791963849936486, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.1020785627401981, "baseline_archived_score": 1.6791963849936486, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1725350700.310609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1725350700.310609, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2837734713732344, 0.7162265286267656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 16, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In June 2024, the U.S. Supreme Court [overturned](https://insideclimatenews.org/news/28062024/supreme-court-overturns-chevron-doctrine/) the Chevron doctrine in a 6-3 decision. The Chevron doctrine had held that courts should defer to federal agencies' reasonable interpretations of ambiguous statutes. Its reversal is expected to make it easier for courts to strike down agency regulations.\n\nThe Clean Air Act, originally passed in 1970, is the primary federal law regulating air pollution in the United States. The EPA has used its authority under the Act to regulate a wide range of air pollutants, including setting national air quality standards, requiring pollution controls on industrial facilities and vehicles, and more recently, regulating greenhouse gas emissions.\n\nNumerous [lawsuits](https://apnews.com/article/epa-rules-lawsuit-soot-pollution-gop-55aef43c4942e99a48db65d034a88377) are currently pending that challenge various EPA regulations promulgated under the Clean Air Act. With Chevron overturned, courts may be more willing to second-guess the EPA's interpretation of the statute and strike down Clean Air Act regulations. Major court decisions limiting the Act's scope could significantly impact US air pollution and climate policy.\n\nThis question aims to assess whether the overturning of Chevron will lead to major court decisions gutting key Clean Air Act provisions before the end of 2026." }, { "id": 26530, "title": "Will Bitcoin reach a new all-time high before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Bitcoin new ATH before October?", "url_title": "Bitcoin new ATH before October?", "slug": "bitcoin-new-ath-before-october", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T13:11:52.694441Z", "published_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.299668Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-30T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T14:00:00Z", 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3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", 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"include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.\n\nDespite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.\n\nIt has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if before October 1, 2024, Bitcoin's all-time high (ATH) price listed on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) is higher than $73,750.07 and the date of ATH is between July 30 and October 1, 2024.\n\nIn case the resolution source is no longer available or in the event of ambiguous data, another resolution source, such as [Coingecko](https://www.coingecko.com/en/highlights/all-time-high-crypto) may be also used to determine the result.", "fine_print": "Since the price of Bitcoin varies on different exchanges, it is possible that different statistics sites mention slightly different values for ATH.", "post_id": 26530, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727689337.125396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 163, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": 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"score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 851, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) Bitcoin has reached its all-time high (ATH) price of $73,750.07 on March 14, 2024.\n\nDespite many positive cryptocurrency news since then (Bitcoin [halving](https://www.investopedia.com/bitcoin-halving-4843769), approving Ethereum ETF, accepting cryptocurrencies in donations for US presidential campaigns), Bitcoin's price dropped over the months, reaching its local minimum of $53,905.56 on July 5.\n\nIt has recovered in July, reaching above $69,000 on July 29." }, { "id": 26529, "title": "Will Levy Rozman become a chess Grandmaster before 2030?", "short_title": "Levy Rozman GM", "url_title": "Levy Rozman GM", "slug": "levy-rozman-gm", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T12:21:09.333133Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-06T09:05:38.276674Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26529, "title": "Will Levy Rozman become a chess Grandmaster before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T12:21:09.333133Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-30T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Levy Rozman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levy_Rozman) known online as GothamChess, is an American chess International Master and content creator who got famous during COVID-19 pandemic for his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@GothamChess) as well as collaboration with chess Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura.\n\nLevy aquired his IM title in 2018 but then made a pause in his professional career focusing more on teaching, creating chess content and playing online chess tournaments. He made an attempt to fulfill GM norms in 2021-2022 playing an over-the-board tournament in Las Vegas but it was unsuccessful back then.\n\nOn 23 April 2024, he [posted a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zF4S9MfiJHM&list=PLBRObSmbZluT8Sr0KWZisAyuvMxBSEVLy) announcing his return to the over-the-board tournaments and renewing his efforts to reach the Grandmaster title, which for Levy would be more difficult considering his age (28 years at the moment of question writing).\n\nIn modern days, most GMs reach their title during their teenage years or early twenties. It is considered that human brain is much harder to train to make deep chess calculations later in life.\n\nAmong [all the players who received non-honorary GM title in 2023 and until 23 July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_grandmasters) only 7 people were older than Levy while 52 were younger than him.\n\nAs of July 2024, to become a grandmaster, a player must achieve both of the following:\n\n>1. Favorable results (called norms) from a total of at least 27 games in tournaments. With some exceptions, to receive a norm in a tournament:\n\n>The player's performance rating at the end of the tournament must be at least 2600. (Tournaments are no longer classified in categories.)\n\n>At least 33% of the player's opponents must be Grandmasters.\n\n>At least 50% of the player's opponents must hold a FIDE title other than Candidate Master and Woman Candidate Master.\n\n>The player's opponents must have an average rating of at least 2380.\n\n>The player's opponents must come from at least 3 different chess federations, which can include the player's own federation. A maximum of 60% of a player's opponents can come from the player's own federation. A maximum of 66% of a player's opponents can come from a single federation.\n\n>At least one norm must be scored at a Swiss tournament with at least 40 participants of average rating of 2000 and above.\n\n>2. An Elo rating of at least 2500 at any point (although they need not maintain this level to obtain or keep the title).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** when, before January 1, 2030, the [FIDE profile page of Levy Rozman](https://ratings.fide.com/profile/2039877) contains the word **Grandmaster** on a separate line in the **FIDE title** field. If the FIDE profile page of Levy Rozman does not contain the word Grandmaster on a separate line in the FIDE title field at any time before January 1, 2030, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Only the **Grandmaster** title would count for the resolution. Following titles will not count:\n\n* Honorary Grandmaster title (also this title will not be shown on the FIDE profile page). \n* Woman Grandmaster title (in case if Levy switches his gender and is accepted in the woman's tournament section).\n\nIf the FIDE website goes permanently offline or has its methodology or terminology change so dramatically that Admins deem the resolution method to be no longer viable, Admins will use their best judgment, based on credible sources, whether Rozman has achieved Grandmaster status. If there is no such information indicating this has happened, the question resolves as No.\n\nIn the event of hacking or any other credible reason to believe Rozman's profile contains incorrect information, Metaculus Admins will delay resolution to allow the issue to be resolved. However, in the absence of any such information or controversy, this question should resolve as Yes.", "post_id": 26529, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762419927.280867, "end_time": 1764227240.558, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762419927.280867, "end_time": 1764227240.558, "forecaster_count": 16, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.24302351036751818 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.2581411659280016, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 1.6530495812653183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3098791564968262, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 1.01783830393827, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2874765089890791, 1.0, 0.5049099362635194, 0.17136970778169644, 0.0, 0.6740515249111422, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10352427088835169, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287143.461736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287143.461736, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7551195805510786, 0.2448804194489214 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Levy Rozman](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levy_Rozman) known online as GothamChess, is an American chess International Master and content creator who got famous during COVID-19 pandemic for his [YouTube channel](https://www.youtube.com/@GothamChess) as well as collaboration with chess Grandmaster Hikaru Nakamura.\n\nLevy aquired his IM title in 2018 but then made a pause in his professional career focusing more on teaching, creating chess content and playing online chess tournaments. He made an attempt to fulfill GM norms in 2021-2022 playing an over-the-board tournament in Las Vegas but it was unsuccessful back then.\n\nOn 23 April 2024, he [posted a video](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zF4S9MfiJHM&list=PLBRObSmbZluT8Sr0KWZisAyuvMxBSEVLy) announcing his return to the over-the-board tournaments and renewing his efforts to reach the Grandmaster title, which for Levy would be more difficult considering his age (28 years at the moment of question writing).\n\nIn modern days, most GMs reach their title during their teenage years or early twenties. It is considered that human brain is much harder to train to make deep chess calculations later in life.\n\nAmong [all the players who received non-honorary GM title in 2023 and until 23 July 2024](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_grandmasters) only 7 people were older than Levy while 52 were younger than him.\n\nAs of July 2024, to become a grandmaster, a player must achieve both of the following:\n\n>1. Favorable results (called norms) from a total of at least 27 games in tournaments. With some exceptions, to receive a norm in a tournament:\n\n>The player's performance rating at the end of the tournament must be at least 2600. (Tournaments are no longer classified in categories.)\n\n>At least 33% of the player's opponents must be Grandmasters.\n\n>At least 50% of the player's opponents must hold a FIDE title other than Candidate Master and Woman Candidate Master.\n\n>The player's opponents must have an average rating of at least 2380.\n\n>The player's opponents must come from at least 3 different chess federations, which can include the player's own federation. A maximum of 60% of a player's opponents can come from the player's own federation. A maximum of 66% of a player's opponents can come from a single federation.\n\n>At least one norm must be scored at a Swiss tournament with at least 40 participants of average rating of 2000 and above.\n\n>2. An Elo rating of at least 2500 at any point (although they need not maintain this level to obtain or keep the title)." }, { "id": 26526, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Youtube banned in Russia before October 2024", "url_title": "Youtube banned in Russia before October 2024", "slug": "youtube-banned-in-russia-before-october-2024", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-23T10:46:57.045513Z", "published_at": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.948724Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 204, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26526, "title": "Will YouTube be banned in Russia before October 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-23T10:46:57.045513Z", "open_time": "2024-08-05T11:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-08-08T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-01T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if after July 30 and before October 1, 2024, access to YouTube is blocked on the territory of Russia.\n\nThe state of blocking will be checked by entering the query `youtube.com` in the text field on Roskomnadzor's official [blocklist site](https://blocklist.rkn.gov.ru/) and submitting the form. \n\nIf the message returned is: \"доступ ограничивается к странице\" (access to the page is limited), this would mean that the site is in the blocklist and this question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nIf the message returned is: \"По Вашему запросу ничего не найдено\" (nothing has been found for your query), this would mean that the site is *not* included in the blocklist and this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis question also resolves as **Yes** if YouTube is blocked in Russia according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Note that the shortened version, `youtu.be` is already included in the blocklist, and this site does NOT trigger the resolution.\n\nMetaculus admins may also use another [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) if they have reasons to believe that the Roskomnadzor site's data are inaccurate.\n\nChanges in the phrasing used by Roskomnadzor's blocklist site will not affect resolution of this question, since the question resolves based on whether access to YouTube is limited or restricted according to Roskomnadzor, regardless of the exact wording.", "post_id": 26526, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687370.034188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687370.034188, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 202, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.023253162461415407 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.365743313186591, 11.719492184599796, 1.8968922596100486, 0.3633306695295169, 0.18113578061632554, 0.48281267072666134, 0.005447108271251405, 0.07964063731595822, 0.0, 0.004349449401938421, 0.043704494593991394, 0.07510531896447714, 0.03416162461742331, 0.12324157488957621, 0.0, 0.03949442271044781, 0.0, 0.00136459540934999, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016412232683670064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012301121829596984, 0.0, 0.11654637890008235, 0.0008491777963649872, 0.0, 0.001117711579562168, 0.0, 0.05249003991684491, 0.0005929856131286975, 0.0, 2.1476123207946604e-05, 0.0, 2.7650361714444973e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004058421909683781, 0.0, 0.0021931362333509827, 8.134274748759226e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027805412282399317, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005554191794204343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002711955519079509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00014664357190288503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.670232682997203e-05, 5.8849074632554245e-05, 0.0, 0.00017602121318625194, 0.0, 0.00022901604102788374, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.018107918923645e-05, 3.7995816249788413e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00797184847545612, 3.911885782499499e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.829164723712185e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3502031483901746e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27792917374423565 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 33.68208155247309, "coverage": 0.9999788362427063, "baseline_score": 70.47068520380272, "spot_peer_score": 2.494008690206395, "peer_archived_score": 33.68208155247309, "baseline_archived_score": 70.47068520380272, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.494008690206395 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727687370.108847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727687370.108847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 205, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 939, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since 2012 Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Roskomnadzor) maintains a list of sites that must be blocked by all telecom providers in Russia. \n\nSome of the notable examples in this list are twitter.com, instagram.com, and facebook.com, which were blocked shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.\n\nDespite [initial expectations of the Metaculus community that YouTube will be blocked as well](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/10040/youtube-blocking-in-russia-in-2022/), it still remains available in Russia in the year 2024, but now that can change.\n\nIn July 2024, Roskomnadzor announced that it started [degrading YouTube performance](https://en.thebell.io/russia-puts-the-brakes-on-youtube-whatsapp/), which may suggest [plans for completely banning YouTube](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/moscow-plans-to-block-youtube-in-fall-russian-media-claims/ar-BB1pSr1A) in autumn." }, { "id": 26522, "title": "Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company military power?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company military power?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-ai-company-military-power", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-22T23:08:44.883199Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:54:07.582677Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 59, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26522, "title": "Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?", "created_at": "2024-07-22T23:08:44.883199Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T20:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T11:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T11:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Once upon a time, there was a company that was a major military power:\n\n> The East India Company was an English, and later British, joint-stock company founded in 1600 and dissolved in 1874. It was formed to trade in the Indian Ocean region, initially with the East Indies (the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia), and later with East Asia. The company gained control of large parts of the Indian subcontinent and colonised parts of Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. At its peak, the company was the largest corporation in the world by various measures and had its own armed forces in the form of the company’s three [presidency armies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_armies), totalling about 260,000 soldiers, twice the size of the British army at the time.\n> \n> Originally chartered as the “Governor and Company of Merchants of London Trading into the East-Indies”, the company rose to account for half of the world's trade during the mid-1700s and early 1800s, particularly in basic commodities including cotton, silk, indigo dye, sugar, salt, spices, saltpetre, tea, and later, opium. The company also initiated the beginnings of the British Empire in India.\n> \n> The company eventually came to rule large areas of India, exercising military power and assuming administrative functions. Company-ruled areas in India gradually expanded after the Battle of Plassey in 1757 and by 1858 most of modern India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was either ruled by the company or princely states closely tied to it by treaty. Following the Indian Rebellion of 1857, the Government of India Act 1858 led to the British Crown assuming direct control of India in the form of the new British Raj.<br/>\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company)\n\nIf AGI (and/or the even more advanced AI that follows AGI) lends a sizeable military advantage to those who possess it, as some (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/#The_military_advantage_would_be_decisive_even_against_nuclear_deterrents)) seem to think will be the case, then an AI company could emerge as a military player, much like the East India Company of old but perhaps even more powerful. This question asks about the chance of that happening.\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26359/5y-after-agi-ai-company-dominates-economy/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will AGI arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, an AI company has either signed a treaty with or waged a war against a [sovereign state](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_sovereign_states), according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) (e.g., news, government, or multi-national sources). This question resolves as **No**, otherwise.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question:\n\n* “Treaty” includes both [executive agreements](https://www.senate.gov/about/powers-procedures/treaties.htm#:~:text=In%20recent%20decades%2C%20presidents%20have,the%20parties%20under%20international%20law) and [non-binding agreements](https://opil.ouplaw.com/display/10.1093/law:epil/9780199231690/law-9780199231690-e1444). It does not matter, for resolution, whether the treaty is bilateral or multilateral, so long as it includes at least one AI company and at least one sovereign nation.\n* “War” means the two involved parties collectively suffering at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in conflicts with each other in a single calendar year. \n* An AI company will be considered to be involved in a war if credible reports indicate the company, or parties paid by the company, are a participating entity in such a conflict and have experienced and/or caused at least 500 deaths.\n* A sovereign state means any UN member state, any UN non-member observer state, and/or any state which is diplomatically recognized by at least 10 other states.", "fine_print": "An AI company that has been absorbed by government or which is effectively controlled by government does not count for Yes resolution. In case of ambiguity over whether the company in question is effectively controlled by government, Metaculus admins will make a ruling. As a guideline, things like forced production, a Manhattan-style project, or outright nationalization will count as “the company is effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company does not count for Yes resolution),” while things like government shareownership or subsidization will count as “the company is not effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company counts for Yes resolution).”\n\nIf an AI company is hired by a sovereign nation as a military contractor, or funded by a sovereign nation for the purposes of building a private military, and participates in a war under those circumstances, that will not count for a Yes resolution.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762365237.230254, "end_time": 1763831460.055554, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762365237.230254, "end_time": 1763831460.055554, "forecaster_count": 44, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.09683806203816835 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6782416881858238, 2.207919948061758, 0.2298789542266755, 1.1025715925498203, 0.0, 1.4944081722786684, 1.3144954282621097, 0.34456062722226327, 0.0, 0.7690277537023755, 0.717952852712485, 0.06327492015001017, 0.09157390813266936, 0.08125654110596578, 0.0, 0.9814754004133264, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4329104402601023, 0.4111953249574266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2613886343686929, 0.0, 0.37666641231333553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21562164146808224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288102.776841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288102.776841, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.993340487789514, 0.006659512210486001 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Once upon a time, there was a company that was a major military power:\n\n> The East India Company was an English, and later British, joint-stock company founded in 1600 and dissolved in 1874. It was formed to trade in the Indian Ocean region, initially with the East Indies (the Indian subcontinent and Southeast Asia), and later with East Asia. The company gained control of large parts of the Indian subcontinent and colonised parts of Southeast Asia and Hong Kong. At its peak, the company was the largest corporation in the world by various measures and had its own armed forces in the form of the company’s three [presidency armies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_armies), totalling about 260,000 soldiers, twice the size of the British army at the time.\n> \n> Originally chartered as the “Governor and Company of Merchants of London Trading into the East-Indies”, the company rose to account for half of the world's trade during the mid-1700s and early 1800s, particularly in basic commodities including cotton, silk, indigo dye, sugar, salt, spices, saltpetre, tea, and later, opium. The company also initiated the beginnings of the British Empire in India.\n> \n> The company eventually came to rule large areas of India, exercising military power and assuming administrative functions. Company-ruled areas in India gradually expanded after the Battle of Plassey in 1757 and by 1858 most of modern India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was either ruled by the company or princely states closely tied to it by treaty. Following the Indian Rebellion of 1857, the Government of India Act 1858 led to the British Crown assuming direct control of India in the form of the new British Raj.<br/>\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_India_Company)\n\nIf AGI (and/or the even more advanced AI that follows AGI) lends a sizeable military advantage to those who possess it, as some (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/#The_military_advantage_would_be_decisive_even_against_nuclear_deterrents)) seem to think will be the case, then an AI company could emerge as a military player, much like the East India Company of old but perhaps even more powerful. This question asks about the chance of that happening.\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26359/5y-after-agi-ai-company-dominates-economy/)”)" }, { "id": 26521, "title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "short_title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "url_title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "slug": "is-gilbreaths-conjecture-true", "author_id": 192660, "author_username": "pablo-csv", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-22T22:58:30.148560Z", "published_at": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.933894Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26521, "title": "Is Gilbreath's conjecture true?", "created_at": "2024-07-22T22:58:30.148560Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-31T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-02T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbreath%27s_conjecture), “Gilbreath's conjecture is a conjecture in number theory regarding the sequences generated by applying the forward difference operator to consecutive prime numbers and leaving the results unsigned, and then repeating this process on consecutive terms in the resulting sequence, and so forth.\n\nGilbreath observed a pattern while playing with the ordered sequence of prime numbers\n\n2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, ...\n\nComputing the absolute value of the difference between term n + 1 and term n in this sequence yields the sequence\n\n1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, ...\n\nIf the same calculation is done for the terms in this new sequence, and the sequence that is the outcome of this process, and again ad infinitum for each sequence that is the output of such a calculation, the following five sequences in this list are\n\n1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 2, ...\n\nWhat Gilbreath noticed is that the first term in each series of differences appears to be 1.”", "resolution_criteria": "Gilbreath's conjecture states that every first term of the described sequences is 1 ad infinitum.\n\nThis question will resolve positively if there is a positive proof of the Conjecture in a major Mathematics journal before January 1, 2100. It will resolve negatively if there is a publication of a disconfirmation in a major mathematics journal before that time.\n\nIf the correctness of the proof given in the publication takes time to be recognized by the mathematics community, the question will resolve when Metaculus admins judge that the proof has gained sufficient recognition.\n\nIf the conjecture has neither been proven nor disproven before that time, it will resolve as ambiguous. Also, if it is proven that Gilbreath's conjecture cannot be proven either true or false, this question will resolve as ambiguous, too.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26521, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723106805.357878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.679 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723106805.357878, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.679 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7783755634394894 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289896.141678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289896.141678, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3862007549455502, 0.6137992450544498 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 8, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gilbreath%27s_conjecture), “Gilbreath's conjecture is a conjecture in number theory regarding the sequences generated by applying the forward difference operator to consecutive prime numbers and leaving the results unsigned, and then repeating this process on consecutive terms in the resulting sequence, and so forth.\n\nGilbreath observed a pattern while playing with the ordered sequence of prime numbers\n\n2, 3, 5, 7, 11, 13, 17, 19, 23, 29, 31, ...\n\nComputing the absolute value of the difference between term n + 1 and term n in this sequence yields the sequence\n\n1, 2, 2, 4, 2, 4, 2, 4, 6, 2, ...\n\nIf the same calculation is done for the terms in this new sequence, and the sequence that is the outcome of this process, and again ad infinitum for each sequence that is the output of such a calculation, the following five sequences in this list are\n\n1, 0, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 2, 4, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 0, 2, ...\n1, 2, 0, 0, 2, ...\n\nWhat Gilbreath noticed is that the first term in each series of differences appears to be 1.”" }, { "id": 26419, "title": "Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, farthest spacecraft?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, farthest spacecraft?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-farthest-spacecraft", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-20T14:43:53.933093Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-05T17:30:15.980252Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26419, "title": "Five years after AGI, will another spacecraft have overtaken Voyager 1 as the farthest spacecraft from Earth?", "created_at": "2024-07-20T14:43:53.933093Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” At the same time, discussions around what humanity should do post-AGI often involve some form of “colonize the stars.” This question aims to shed light on whether colonization will have started in the few years following AGI.\n___\n\n> The twin Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are exploring where nothing from Earth has flown before. Continuing on their more-than-40-year journey since their 1977 launches, they each are much farther away from Earth and the sun than Pluto. In August 2012, Voyager 1 made the historic entry into interstellar space, the region between stars, filled with material ejected by the death of nearby stars millions of years ago [...] Both spacecraft are still sending scientific information about their surroundings through the Deep Space Network, or DSN.\n> \n> The primary mission was the exploration of Jupiter and Saturn. After making a string of discoveries there — such as active volcanoes on Jupiter's moon Io and intricacies of Saturn's rings — the mission was extended.<br/>\n> [—NASA JPL a](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/)\n\nVoyager 1, as of July 2024, is 15.2 billion miles away from Earth and traveling away at 38,000 miles per hour, which is roughly one seventeen-thousandth the speed of light ([NASA JPL b](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/)) Theoretically, however, there is no reason why spacecraft cannot travel at speeds approaching light speed: such spacecraft would quickly overtake Voyager. There have been various proposals for what these spacecraft of the future might look like, ranging from “nukes as rockets,” to light sails, to antimatter drives and pion drives, to “kugelblitz” black hole engines ([PBS Space Time, 2015](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzZGPCyrpSU)) If there is an explosion in technological advancement following AGI, as some experts think there will be, then these spacecraft of the future might in fact be on our horizon. Humanity could soon be on its way to colonizing the stars.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) indicates that Voyager 1 is no longer the farthest spacecraft from Earth.", "fine_print": "Discovery of an alien spacecraft further out from Earth than Voyager 1 will not resolve this question as Yes.\n___\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26419, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762363805.452718, "end_time": 1765220239.061963, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762363805.452718, "end_time": 1765220239.061963, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.10018974507446816 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.79028675705187, 1.8563989320787508, 0.06395130800982807, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.3854146652508935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16692841638394568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289371.504341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289371.504341, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9728661857020441, 0.027133814297955926 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The leaders of today’s frontier AI companies have [talked](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/podcasts/google-deepmind-demis-hassabis.html) [about](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) AGI solving humanity’s hardest problems and “aiding in the discovery of new scientific knowledge that changes the limits of possibility.” At the same time, discussions around what humanity should do post-AGI often involve some form of “colonize the stars.” This question aims to shed light on whether colonization will have started in the few years following AGI.\n___\n\n> The twin Voyager 1 and 2 spacecraft are exploring where nothing from Earth has flown before. Continuing on their more-than-40-year journey since their 1977 launches, they each are much farther away from Earth and the sun than Pluto. In August 2012, Voyager 1 made the historic entry into interstellar space, the region between stars, filled with material ejected by the death of nearby stars millions of years ago [...] Both spacecraft are still sending scientific information about their surroundings through the Deep Space Network, or DSN.\n> \n> The primary mission was the exploration of Jupiter and Saturn. After making a string of discoveries there — such as active volcanoes on Jupiter's moon Io and intricacies of Saturn's rings — the mission was extended.<br/>\n> [—NASA JPL a](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/)\n\nVoyager 1, as of July 2024, is 15.2 billion miles away from Earth and traveling away at 38,000 miles per hour, which is roughly one seventeen-thousandth the speed of light ([NASA JPL b](https://voyager.jpl.nasa.gov/mission/status/)) Theoretically, however, there is no reason why spacecraft cannot travel at speeds approaching light speed: such spacecraft would quickly overtake Voyager. There have been various proposals for what these spacecraft of the future might look like, ranging from “nukes as rockets,” to light sails, to antimatter drives and pion drives, to “kugelblitz” black hole engines ([PBS Space Time, 2015](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzZGPCyrpSU)) If there is an explosion in technological advancement following AGI, as some experts think there will be, then these spacecraft of the future might in fact be on our horizon. Humanity could soon be on its way to colonizing the stars." }, { "id": 26418, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be democracy?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, democracy?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, democracy?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-democracy", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-20T13:21:14.140826Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:56.659715Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 0, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3700, "name": "Social Sciences", "slug": "social-sciences", "emoji": "🧑🤝🧑", "description": "Social Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26418, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be democracy?", "created_at": "2024-07-20T13:21:14.140826Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T17:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T17:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies?tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\"></iframe>\n\nFrom [Our World in Data (2024)]((https://ourworldindata.org/less-democratic)):\n\n> Many more people than in the past have democratic rights. But now there is growing concern that this progress is currently being partially undone. Is this true? Has the world become less democratic recently?\n>[ …]\n> \n> Democracy is in decline, whether we look at big changes in the number of democracies and the people living in them; at small changes in the extent of democratic rights; or at medium-sized changes in the number of, and people living in, countries that are autocratizing.\n> \n> The extent of this decline is substantial, but it is also uncertain and limited. We can see it clearly across democracy metrics: the world has fallen from all-time democratic highs to a level similar to earlier decades. But the extent of this decline depends on which democracy measure we use. And it is limited in the sense that the world remains much more democratic than it was even half a century ago.\n> \n> Finally, the recent democratic decline is precedented, and past declines were reversed. The world underwent phases of autocratization in the 1930s and again in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, people fought to turn the tide, and pushed democratic rights to unprecedented heights. We can do the same again.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts are concerned that AGI will have negative impacts on democracy, possibly ending it altogether. [Lazar and Pascal (2024)](https://www.techpolicy.press/can-democracy-survive-artificial-general-intelligence/) write:\n\n> But does the path to AGI lead somewhere that democracies should go? In 2023, many loudly argued ‘no,’ not because of the implications for democracy, but because they think AGI poses an [existential threat to humanity](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk) at large. A range of experts have presented scenarios, ranging from speculative to compelling, in which AGI is humanity’s final, civilization-ending invention. The leading AI labs also feel this critique keenly, and have built research teams aiming to ‘align’ AGI (and ASI, its superintelligent successor) to make it ‘safe, beneficial, and controllable.’ But even if we can align AGI to meet these criteria (assuming we can decide, democratically, what they mean and how to achieve them), this would still not be enough for AGI to be safe for democracy.\n> \n> Here’s why. If AGI is better than most humans at all cognitive tasks, it is very likely to be better than humans at the numerous tasks of governing—that is, designing, implementing, and enforcing the rules by which a community or institution operates. This will create a compelling incentive to invest AGI with governing power at all levels of society—from clubs, schools, and workplaces, to the administrative agencies that regulate and help steward the economy, labor, the environment, transport and healthcare, and even provide for public safety, criminal justice, and election administration. If in fact AGI is much better at executing the tasks that we give it than humans (as its would-be creators intend), there will be a strong, perhaps irresistible temptation to have it identify and select which tasks to pursue, then to have it set our priorities, not just make and enforce our rules in particular domains. As new threats and problems arise faster than we can process them, we may very well entrust AGI with a blanket authority to prioritize, decide and act on our behalf. We would de facto be kissing good-bye to democracy in any real sense of its value and practice. Think of this threat as an absent-minded walk down a political primrose path, not the more widely-discussed ‘rogue AI’ scenarios. We already see this kind of easy deference to existing, deeply flawed computational systems. It would only be exacerbated with AGI.\n> \n> From decades of work on automation, we know that in every domain, from manufacturing to algorithmic trading, automating a task and then relying on humans for oversight at critical moments is a [doomed project](https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica.pdf). The goal of making future AGI systems ‘controllable’ cannot be achieved through technology design alone. For *anything* to be controllable, we have to presuppose something or someone doing the controlling. It is not enough to design systems that could in principle be controlled, but where we can reliably predict, based on past experience, that humans will fail to use the controls that we have designed for them. Nor is having some AGIs control others an adequate answer. For AGI to be safe for democracy, *democratic institutions* run by people must be able and expected to exercise meaningful control. This may well require rethinking the aging institutions of constitutional democracy itself—something that only we, the People, can legitimately do.\n\nOthers still are concerned about more extreme scenarios, like a leading AI company or an authoritarian state achieving a decisive military advantage (enabled by superintelligence) and seizing power by overthrowing democratic rivals (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/)).\n\nNick Bostrom, known for his far-out thinking, heads in a different direction, arguing that radical preventive policing, such as universal surveillance, and a centralized decision-making authority (aka [singleton](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/singleton.pdf)) are needed for humanity to survive beyond AGI into the long run ([2019](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf)) These things are in tension with the ideals of liberal democracy; what tradeoffs to make remains an open question.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as the percentage of people in the world living in a liberal democracy, in the year 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, according to the Our World in Data (OWID) data accessible at this link: [OWID: People living in democracies and autocracies, World](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies).\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nWalking through the calculation for getting from the reported OWID data to how “percentage living in a liberal democracy” will be resolved: For 2023, OWID reports a total of 8.03 billion people, of whom 1.05 live in liberal democracies. Therefore, for 2023 this question would have resolved as (1.05 billion / 8.03 billion) x 100% = 13.1%.\n\nResolution will be determined by the earliest credible data reported by OWID; later updates or revisions by OWID will be irrelevant to the question resolution.", "fine_print": "If data reported by OWID contains a significant error (aside from typical adjustments from scheduled data releases), Metaculus may re-resolve the question at their sole discretion. If OWID no longer reports data for a relevant year, Metaculus may use an alternative credible source of data at their discretion or resolve as **Ambiguous**.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26418, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 0, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "<iframe src=\"https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/people-living-in-democracies-autocracies?tab=chart\" loading=\"lazy\" style=\"width: 100%; height: 600px; border: 0px none;\" allow=\"web-share; clipboard-write\"></iframe>\n\nFrom [Our World in Data (2024)]((https://ourworldindata.org/less-democratic)):\n\n> Many more people than in the past have democratic rights. But now there is growing concern that this progress is currently being partially undone. Is this true? Has the world become less democratic recently?\n>[ …]\n> \n> Democracy is in decline, whether we look at big changes in the number of democracies and the people living in them; at small changes in the extent of democratic rights; or at medium-sized changes in the number of, and people living in, countries that are autocratizing.\n> \n> The extent of this decline is substantial, but it is also uncertain and limited. We can see it clearly across democracy metrics: the world has fallen from all-time democratic highs to a level similar to earlier decades. But the extent of this decline depends on which democracy measure we use. And it is limited in the sense that the world remains much more democratic than it was even half a century ago.\n> \n> Finally, the recent democratic decline is precedented, and past declines were reversed. The world underwent phases of autocratization in the 1930s and again in the 1960s and 1970s. Back then, people fought to turn the tide, and pushed democratic rights to unprecedented heights. We can do the same again.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts are concerned that AGI will have negative impacts on democracy, possibly ending it altogether. [Lazar and Pascal (2024)](https://www.techpolicy.press/can-democracy-survive-artificial-general-intelligence/) write:\n\n> But does the path to AGI lead somewhere that democracies should go? In 2023, many loudly argued ‘no,’ not because of the implications for democracy, but because they think AGI poses an [existential threat to humanity](https://www.safe.ai/work/statement-on-ai-risk) at large. A range of experts have presented scenarios, ranging from speculative to compelling, in which AGI is humanity’s final, civilization-ending invention. The leading AI labs also feel this critique keenly, and have built research teams aiming to ‘align’ AGI (and ASI, its superintelligent successor) to make it ‘safe, beneficial, and controllable.’ But even if we can align AGI to meet these criteria (assuming we can decide, democratically, what they mean and how to achieve them), this would still not be enough for AGI to be safe for democracy.\n> \n> Here’s why. If AGI is better than most humans at all cognitive tasks, it is very likely to be better than humans at the numerous tasks of governing—that is, designing, implementing, and enforcing the rules by which a community or institution operates. This will create a compelling incentive to invest AGI with governing power at all levels of society—from clubs, schools, and workplaces, to the administrative agencies that regulate and help steward the economy, labor, the environment, transport and healthcare, and even provide for public safety, criminal justice, and election administration. If in fact AGI is much better at executing the tasks that we give it than humans (as its would-be creators intend), there will be a strong, perhaps irresistible temptation to have it identify and select which tasks to pursue, then to have it set our priorities, not just make and enforce our rules in particular domains. As new threats and problems arise faster than we can process them, we may very well entrust AGI with a blanket authority to prioritize, decide and act on our behalf. We would de facto be kissing good-bye to democracy in any real sense of its value and practice. Think of this threat as an absent-minded walk down a political primrose path, not the more widely-discussed ‘rogue AI’ scenarios. We already see this kind of easy deference to existing, deeply flawed computational systems. It would only be exacerbated with AGI.\n> \n> From decades of work on automation, we know that in every domain, from manufacturing to algorithmic trading, automating a task and then relying on humans for oversight at critical moments is a [doomed project](https://ckrybus.com/static/papers/Bainbridge_1983_Automatica.pdf). The goal of making future AGI systems ‘controllable’ cannot be achieved through technology design alone. For *anything* to be controllable, we have to presuppose something or someone doing the controlling. It is not enough to design systems that could in principle be controlled, but where we can reliably predict, based on past experience, that humans will fail to use the controls that we have designed for them. Nor is having some AGIs control others an adequate answer. For AGI to be safe for democracy, *democratic institutions* run by people must be able and expected to exercise meaningful control. This may well require rethinking the aging institutions of constitutional democracy itself—something that only we, the People, can legitimately do.\n\nOthers still are concerned about more extreme scenarios, like a leading AI company or an authoritarian state achieving a decisive military advantage (enabled by superintelligence) and seizing power by overthrowing democratic rivals (e.g., [Aschenbrenner, 2024](https://situational-awareness.ai/the-free-world-must-prevail/)).\n\nNick Bostrom, known for his far-out thinking, heads in a different direction, arguing that radical preventive policing, such as universal surveillance, and a centralized decision-making authority (aka [singleton](https://www.fhi.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/singleton.pdf)) are needed for humanity to survive beyond AGI into the long run ([2019](https://nickbostrom.com/papers/vulnerable.pdf)) These things are in tension with the ideals of liberal democracy; what tradeoffs to make remains an open question." }, { "id": 26408, "title": "Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-minimum-wage-in-turkiye-turkey-increase-again-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.749313Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:45.845545Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26408, "title": "Will the minimum wage in Türkiye (Turkey) increase again before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.749313Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 and 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_Turkey). The last minimum wage increase was [on January, 1, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-raises-monthly-minimum-wage-by-49-2024-2023-12-27/), when wages rose by 50%. However, it was already [partially eaten by inflation](https://stockholmcf.org/turkeys-hunger-threshold-exceeds-minimum-wage/). The share of workers receiving minimum wage is estimated to be between [33% and 50%](https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-s-minimum-wage-becoming-average-wage-protest-unions-304930/#:~:text=Around%2050%25%20of%20workers%20in,to%20DISK%20chair%20Arzu%20Cerkezoglu.).\n\nRecently the ruling party of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost in local elections, in what has been described as a \"[historic victory](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/)\" for the opposition. There has been speculation that this might spark populist policies such as an increased minimum wage, but in April 2024 the Turkish Labor and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan [said](https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-labor-minister-rules-out-second-minimum-wage-hike-in-2024-news-64217) about a possible second minimum wage hike, \"We have no such agenda. We will continue as we decided at the beginning.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report before September 30, 2024, that another minimum wage increase was going to take effect in Turkey in 2024. Wage increases that are approved before September 30, 2024, but taking effect in 2025 (e.g., starting January, 1, 2025) do not count towards resolution. If no such report is made before September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.\n", "fine_print": "Increases of any size, no matter how small, count towards the resolution of this question.", "post_id": 26408, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830547.011556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.205 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830547.011556, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.205 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3978746633741804 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12214656033626006, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29360034512635746, 0.0, 0.11064264398533052, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4874446759504965, 0.0, 0.795346328092568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03399241299535737, 0.0, 0.46916959902833105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.570129095825822, 0.030314528419522604, 0.0, 0.5599024685085519, 0.0, 0.025253159325845955, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4959827095661699, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2181690215100436, 0.2168121871892493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04232921962320499, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2705719207183073, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8520233747574918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3702934678804022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0978269360296038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6104228132231739, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004870516352324537, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016764573440571914, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830547.045677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830547.045677, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7571993974554572, 0.2428006025445429 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In recent years, Turkey experienced high inflation, climbing [up to 85%](https://tradingeconomics.com/turkey/inflation-cpi) at peak, and 68% year-on-year as of April, 2024. Due to high inflation, Turkish government diverged from its policy of yearly increases in minimum wage, and increased minimum wage twice in [2022 and 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimum_wage_in_Turkey). The last minimum wage increase was [on January, 1, 2024](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/turkey-raises-monthly-minimum-wage-by-49-2024-2023-12-27/), when wages rose by 50%. However, it was already [partially eaten by inflation](https://stockholmcf.org/turkeys-hunger-threshold-exceeds-minimum-wage/). The share of workers receiving minimum wage is estimated to be between [33% and 50%](https://www.intellinews.com/turkey-s-minimum-wage-becoming-average-wage-protest-unions-304930/#:~:text=Around%2050%25%20of%20workers%20in,to%20DISK%20chair%20Arzu%20Cerkezoglu.).\n\nRecently the ruling party of Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan lost in local elections, in what has been described as a \"[historic victory](https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/01/turkey-elections-chp-imamoglu-erdogan-akp-israel-iran-consulate-syria/)\" for the opposition. There has been speculation that this might spark populist policies such as an increased minimum wage, but in April 2024 the Turkish Labor and Social Security Minister Vedat Işıkhan [said](https://www.duvarenglish.com/turkish-labor-minister-rules-out-second-minimum-wage-hike-in-2024-news-64217) about a possible second minimum wage hike, \"We have no such agenda. We will continue as we decided at the beginning.\"" } ] }
