Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2800
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2820", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2780", "results": [ { "id": 21245, "title": "Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?", "short_title": "Lack of Major World Events Before 2050?", "url_title": "Lack of Major World Events Before 2050?", "slug": "lack-of-major-world-events-before-2050", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-26T16:53:27.379876Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T14:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-14T23:08:42.967168Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-31T14:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-31T14:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 98, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15868, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☣️", "type": "topic" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:39:46.629282Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:39:46.629282Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3690, "name": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "slug": "nuclear", "emoji": "☢️", "description": "Nuclear Technology & Risks", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21245, "title": "Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?", "created_at": "2024-01-26T16:53:27.379876Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T14:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-03T14:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-03T14:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A number of influential thinkers have argued that humanity is at a period of elevated risk of significant global catastrophe, and that the risk may be higher than at any point in history. In [The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/), Toby Ord makes the case that [global catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk) — from existing threats such as nuclear war and global pandemics, as well as new technologies like artificial intelligence — is higher than ever and requires humanity to devote more resources to reducing these risks. Similarly, Holden Karnofsky has argued that we are living through [the most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/), particularly due to the development of artificial intelligence and the potential for it to surpass human capabilities, leading to a period of high risk and dramatic change.\n\nWhile there are some estimates of individual risks, such as in The Precipice and [on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/), it may be the case that a number of these risks are highly correlated, and estimates of the correlated risks are rarer. This question selects a few events that would have significant global impact and asks what the chances are of arriving it to 2050 without any of them occurring.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if **none** of the following occur before January 1, 2050:\n\n* The development of artificial general intelligence, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[When will the first general AI system be devised, tested, and publicly announced?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)*** resolves to a date before January 1, 2050.\n* 1,000 battle-related deaths occur between the US and China, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[Will there be a US-China war before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21319/us-china-war-before-2050/)*** resolves as **Yes**.\n* A nuclear weapon is detonated as an act of war, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/4779/at-least-1-nuclear-detonation-in-war-by-2050/)*** resolves as **Yes**.\n* World War III, which will be considered to occur if the question ***[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)*** resolves as **Yes**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21245, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757891312.666451, "end_time": 1787559418.783, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757891312.666451, "end_time": 1787559418.783, "forecaster_count": 97, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.13 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.14437574978797935 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9688183899031184, 3.490745837078152, 1.5057338163881413, 0.43355758880885664, 1.1663766011669954, 3.9709867281161575, 0.55112579924297, 0.04325450585999784, 0.0, 0.04658261767648145, 0.36670357273721466, 0.008653094397426326, 0.7739697952675244, 0.6262370645852732, 0.0, 0.02371719179668347, 0.18716515029005149, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6743396005367439, 0.0, 0.7732176109728021, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5047427366516909, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010489765833368194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20136289509319918, 0.0031428312859001946, 0.0, 0.000390197396586153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5832758212509559, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1228471747536079, 0.0022267761436016178, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30464632543619785, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8577024050133123 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289845.967976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289845.967976, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 90, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9437737599375078, 0.05622624006249227 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 163, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A number of influential thinkers have argued that humanity is at a period of elevated risk of significant global catastrophe, and that the risk may be higher than at any point in history. In [The Precipice](https://theprecipice.com/), Toby Ord makes the case that [global catastrophic risk](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophic_risk) — from existing threats such as nuclear war and global pandemics, as well as new technologies like artificial intelligence — is higher than ever and requires humanity to devote more resources to reducing these risks. Similarly, Holden Karnofsky has argued that we are living through [the most important century](https://www.cold-takes.com/most-important-century/), particularly due to the development of artificial intelligence and the potential for it to surpass human capabilities, leading to a period of high risk and dramatic change.\n\nWhile there are some estimates of individual risks, such as in The Precipice and [on Metaculus](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/), it may be the case that a number of these risks are highly correlated, and estimates of the correlated risks are rarer. This question selects a few events that would have significant global impact and asks what the chances are of arriving it to 2050 without any of them occurring." }, { "id": 21185, "title": "Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Hungary Approves Sweden's NATO Bid by March?", "url_title": "Hungary Approves Sweden's NATO Bid by March?", "slug": "hungary-approves-swedens-nato-bid-by-march", "author_id": 144022, "author_username": "Langley", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-24T12:54:12.773668Z", "published_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.174580Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 32, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 164, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21185, "title": "Will the National Assembly of Hungary approve Sweden's NATO accession before March 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-24T12:54:12.773668Z", "open_time": "2024-01-31T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-03T10:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-03T10:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-28T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-26T15:57:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hungary currently stands as the last country left to approve Sweden's accession into the NATO, in contrast to repeated [promises](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-sweden-nato-membership-orban-last-holdout-13cb5837bc1819382a08531a879fa348) that the country will not be the last one to do so. The Turkish Grand National Assembly [supported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html) Sweden's accession on 23rd of January. \n\nThe Hungarian National Assembly is currently on a [winter break](https://www.parlament.hu/web/house-of-the-national-assembly/operation-of-the-national-assembly) and will convene again sometime in the middle of February, unless an extraordinary session is convened. This can be achieved if the President, government or one-fifth of of the MPs support such a motion.\n\nSweden was historically a neutral country, which however [changed](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/majority-swedes-favour-joining-nato-poll-2022-03-04/) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In May 2022 the country applied to NATO together with Finland. Most NATO members approved Sweden's accession by September 2022, thus only Turkey and Hungary remained. While Turkey stated its conditions (e.g. a tougher stance against PKK members living in Sweden), Hungary never did, only repeatedly stated that they strongly support Sweden NATO accession, even though they disapprove of Sweden critique of the state of Hungary's democracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, the National Assembly of Hungary has ratified Sweden's accession to NATO. Resolution will be determined according to reporting by [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Note that presidential ratification by Hungary of Sweden's accession is not required for this question, only approval by the Hungarian National Assembly is required.", "post_id": 21185, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708965183.731355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.975 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708965183.731355, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "centers": [ 0.975 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.025000000000000022, 0.975 ], "means": [ 0.9179935333837739 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0439799670408973e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4488561805494543, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0001567288836460947, 5.996070862184824e-05, 0.0, 0.001416532342329732, 0.001364430481302169, 0.0, 0.025615586389357764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024092395364302367, 0.0, 0.00041589438459065683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007265200500211114, 0.002319206586072794, 0.0009415162563067682, 0.0, 0.002743074642062225, 0.0, 0.0016559870744766302, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016374221830805047, 0.0006070659330260063, 0.0, 0.0007931199551926177, 0.0, 0.0001220456527305812, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013156551915271009, 4.2941509948727554e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9397262977934855e-05, 8.108625351937246e-05, 0.0005536743169690813, 0.0029883588709427276, 0.0, 0.013818134439196064, 0.27559767038941074, 0.4306817877614645, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004820660131273943, 0.0, 0.0027833536574810966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.451702372965979, 0.002590522991462575, 6.99679039286832e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39649943071412247, 0.4151652540635673, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1100279917954938, 0.09740361054409445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08271574876704357, 0.7598923398664792, 1.333628525389487, 0.3208573644041564, 0.031741903479969774, 0.13675856121664787, 0.020566356318291627, 0.30827044043086593, 0.0, 0.9917368620599651, 0.231532998878882, 0.07143229051450811, 3.0287285709240157, 0.7563293939036034, 2.0333232727570785, 1.5931664088563038, 9.865228350869307 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.026096483293037, "coverage": 0.9354415572588519, "baseline_score": 20.00525720863474, "spot_peer_score": 29.827013559011906, "peer_archived_score": 15.026096483293037, "baseline_archived_score": 20.00525720863474, "spot_peer_archived_score": 29.827013559011906 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708965186.705011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708965186.705011, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 166, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06269428533918153, 0.9373057146608185 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 839, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hungary currently stands as the last country left to approve Sweden's accession into the NATO, in contrast to repeated [promises](https://apnews.com/article/hungary-sweden-nato-membership-orban-last-holdout-13cb5837bc1819382a08531a879fa348) that the country will not be the last one to do so. The Turkish Grand National Assembly [supported](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/01/23/europe/turkey-vote-sweden-nato-intl/index.html) Sweden's accession on 23rd of January. \n\nThe Hungarian National Assembly is currently on a [winter break](https://www.parlament.hu/web/house-of-the-national-assembly/operation-of-the-national-assembly) and will convene again sometime in the middle of February, unless an extraordinary session is convened. This can be achieved if the President, government or one-fifth of of the MPs support such a motion.\n\nSweden was historically a neutral country, which however [changed](https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/majority-swedes-favour-joining-nato-poll-2022-03-04/) after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. In May 2022 the country applied to NATO together with Finland. Most NATO members approved Sweden's accession by September 2022, thus only Turkey and Hungary remained. While Turkey stated its conditions (e.g. a tougher stance against PKK members living in Sweden), Hungary never did, only repeatedly stated that they strongly support Sweden NATO accession, even though they disapprove of Sweden critique of the state of Hungary's democracy." }, { "id": 21184, "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?", "short_title": "Consumer Sentiment in February 2024?", "url_title": "Consumer Sentiment in February 2024?", "slug": "consumer-sentiment-in-february-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-23T22:47:27.365881Z", "published_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.431328Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21184, "title": "What will be the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index in February 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-23T22:47:27.365881Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T18:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T18:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-14T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-24T15:47:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is a monthly survey assessing views on the economy. The index was above 70 for [only the month of July in 2023](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html), having dropped to low values as inflation surged in 2021. Despite the [decline in inflation in 2023](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1eyFO), consumer sentiment had remained low. However, in December of 2023 the index increased to 69.7, up from 61.3 in November of 2023, and then increased again in the preliminary release for January 2024 to 78.8, the highest value since July of 2021.\n\nThe preliminary release contains the results from [roughly 420 interviews](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/faq.php), with around 600 responses in the final figure. The preliminary figure for February 2024 is [scheduled to be published on February 16](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=73945).\n\nThe index is [calculated from responses to five questions](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770) about the state of a respondents personal financial outlook and their perception of national economic conditions. The index can theoretically range from a low of 2 to a high of approximately 150, though the historic low of 50 was reached in June 2022 and the historic high of 112 was reached in January of 2000.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the preliminary value of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index reported for February of 2024, according to [data published by the University of Michigan](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/).", "fine_print": "The first value reported for February will be used, later revisions or updates are immaterial.", "post_id": 21184, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706111131.706714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.694 ], "centers": [ 0.694 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.694 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706111131.706714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.694 ], "centers": [ 0.694 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.694 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30600000000000005, 0.694 ], "means": [ 0.694 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706111131.732139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706111131.732139, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.36931291040633907, 0.6306870895936609 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/) is a monthly survey assessing views on the economy. The index was above 70 for [only the month of July in 2023](http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/tables.html), having dropped to low values as inflation surged in 2021. Despite the [decline in inflation in 2023](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1eyFO), consumer sentiment had remained low. However, in December of 2023 the index increased to 69.7, up from 61.3 in November of 2023, and then increased again in the preliminary release for January 2024 to 78.8, the highest value since July of 2021.\n\nThe preliminary release contains the results from [roughly 420 interviews](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/faq.php), with around 600 responses in the final figure. The preliminary figure for February 2024 is [scheduled to be published on February 16](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=73945).\n\nThe index is [calculated from responses to five questions](https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/fetchdoc.php?docid=24770) about the state of a respondents personal financial outlook and their perception of national economic conditions. 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The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison.\n\nOn January 19 it [was reported](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-68038970) that Adolfo Macías Villamar's family had been expelled from Argentina.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) is in Ecuadorian custody. 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Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after January 23, 2024, and before April 1, 2024, the government of Ecuador does either of the following:\n\n* Extends the existing 60 day state of emergency at least one additional day\n* Lets the existing state of emergency lapse and then declares another state of emergency", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21182, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709924574.804095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709924574.804095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.73 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.27, 0.73 ], "means": [ 0.7327378004753313 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.011309937432059526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3368000919432843, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.760622200710919, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.645840029309925, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.573601365905194, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019040347171449423, 0.009177111268178266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09580740838405215, 0.680162133115384, 0.041136644328955516, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1029390209692679, 1.228660790719781, 0.7425024783685504, 0.4546001119709759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6370901578811888, 0.2969355880682738, 0.20342197809775475, 0.0362444475523413, 0.08910285564825525, 0.7327627179295968, 0.18895901074409505, 0.45662324786718267, 0.357933793421635, 0.30489317703694546, 0.6918276036237596, 0.0, 0.4039814101405767, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026544712507148856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07688730020434764, 0.1783898312420707, 0.0, 0.9497917989939786, 0.0, 0.5415258598902764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.176201127085754 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 15.871163461700121, "coverage": 0.6517193475288009, "baseline_score": 25.124025834212855, "spot_peer_score": 21.868679445400566, "peer_archived_score": 15.871163461700121, "baseline_archived_score": 25.124025834212855, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.868679445400566 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709891133.857084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709891133.857084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 85, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.28704766661548864, 0.7129523333845114 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 291, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On January 8, 2024, Ecuador's president Daniel Noboa [declared a 60-day state of emergency](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ecuador-declares-state-emergency-amid-prison-chaos-2024-01-08/). The state of emergency followed a [wave of violence](https://www.vox.com/world-politics/2024/1/11/24034891/ecuador-drugs-cocaine-cartels-violence-murder-daniel-naboa-columbia-crime) related to the drug trade in Ecuador and the [escape](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/who-is-fito-jose-macias-ecuador-gang-leader-rcna133435) of gang leader José Adolfo Macías Villamar (also known as Fito) from prison." }, { "id": 21167, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?", "short_title": "1 EUR costs less than 1 USD before 2026", "url_title": "1 EUR costs less than 1 USD before 2026", "slug": "1-eur-costs-less-than-1-usd-before-2026", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-23T18:57:28.614993Z", "published_at": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T18:32:20.416397Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 88, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21167, "title": "Will 1 Euro be worth less than 1 US Dollar before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-23T18:57:28.614993Z", "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-28T19:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-28T19:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After reaching its maximum of `1.5852` in July 2008 the EUR/USD exchange rate has significantly declined over the years. In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between 1 January 2024 and 1 January 2026, the EUR/USD exchange rate as [reported by Google Finance](https://www.google.com/finance/quote/EUR-USD) is less than `1.0000`.", "fine_print": "Should Google Finance become unavailable, alternative sources like xe.com or [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EURUSD%3DX/history/#eyJsYXlvdXQiOnsiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOm51bGwsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjoxLCJmbGlwcGVkIjpmYWxzZSwidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSwiY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJtb3VudGFpbiIsImV4dGVuZGVkIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhdGlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6ImxpbmVhciIsInN0dWRpZXMiOnsi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiOnsidHlwZSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7IlNlcmllcyI6InNlcmllcyIsImlkIjoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiLCJkaXNwbGF5Ijoi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJVcCBWb2x1bWUiOiIjMGRiZDZlZWUiLCJEb3duIFZvbHVtZSI6IiNmZjU1NDdlZSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsImVkaXRNb2RlIjp0cnVlLCJwYW5lbE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9LCJkaXNhYmxlZCI6ZmFsc2V9fSwicGFuZWxzIjp7ImNoYXJ0Ijp7InBlcmNlbnQiOjEsImRpc3BsYXkiOiJFVVJVU0Q9WCIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwiaW5kZXgiOjAsInlBeGlzIjp7Im5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCIsInBvc2l0aW9uIjpudWxsfSwieWF4aXNMSFMiOltdLCJ5YXhpc1JIUyI6WyJjaGFydCIsIuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIl19fSwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXBsaWVyIjoxLCJiYXNlIjoieWVhciIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOiJkYXkifSwic2hvd0V2ZW50c1F1b3RlIjp0cnVlLCJmb3JjZUxvYWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ1c2VFeGlzdGluZ0RhdGEiOnRydWV9LCJvdXRsaWVycyI6ZmFsc2UsImFuaW1hdGlvbiI6dHJ1ZSwiaGVhZHNVcCI6eyJzdGF0aWMiOnRydWUsImR5bmFtaWMiOmZhbHNlLCJmbG9hdGluZyI6ZmFsc2V9LCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsImZ1bGxTY3JlZW4iOnRydWUsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIjp0cnVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJjcm9zc2hhaXJTdGlja3kiOmZhbHNlLCJkb250U2F2ZVJhbmdlVG9MYXlvdXQiOnRydWUsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6IkVVUlVTRD1YIiwic3ltYm9sT2JqZWN0Ijp7InN5bWJvbCI6IkVVUlVTRD1YIiwicXVvdGVUeXBlIjoiQ1VSUkVOQ1kiLCJleGNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiRXVyb3BlL0xvbmRvbiIsInBlcmlvZDEiOjE1NjM3NDY0MDAsInBlcmlvZDIiOjE3NDEyNTE2MDB9LCJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6eyJtdWx0aXBsaWVyIjoxLCJiYXNlIjoieWVhciIsInBlcmlvZGljaXR5Ijp7InBlcmlvZCI6MSwidGltZVVuaXQiOiJkYXkifSwic2hvd0V2ZW50c1F1b3RlIjp0cnVlLCJmb3JjZUxvYWQiOmZhbHNlLCJ1c2VFeGlzdGluZ0RhdGEiOnRydWV9fV19LCJldmVudHMiOnsiZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlLCJ0cmFkaW5nSG9yaXpvbiI6Im5vbmUiLCJzaWdEZXZFdmVudHMiOltdfSwicHJlZmVyZW5jZXMiOnt9fQ==) can be used.\n\nIf the Euro or US Dollar ceases to exist before the resolution date, the question will be annulled.", "post_id": 21167, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758393129.486921, "end_time": 1760190810.535843, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758393129.486921, "end_time": 1760190810.535843, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.08175405215565858 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7746818631263759, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.1857459851945321, 0.7337519574005283, 1.7922303512019062, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.563867847593419, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 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In September-October 2022 there was a brief period when the price of 1 EUR was less than 1 USD. Since then, the Euro price recovered slightly and reached an exchange rate of `1.1038` US dollar on 01.01.2024." }, { "id": 21147, "title": "Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?", "short_title": "AI model >= 1e26 FLOP", "url_title": "AI model >= 1e26 FLOP", "slug": "ai-model-1e26-flop", "author_id": 137452, "author_username": "odelaney", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-23T07:40:39.487673Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T01:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.873626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T01:25:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T01:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": 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"2024-02-18T01:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-07T16:42:39.180876Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T16:40:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On October 30, 2023, President Biden implemented an [Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) ([EO 14110](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence)) Among other things, this Order requires developers of powerful AI models—those “trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations”—to comply with certain reporting requirements.\n\nAs of February 2024, no model exists that meets the Order’s criteria. The largest known model is Gemini Ultra at 9e25 FLOP, according to [Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization). In the last decade, twelve new models have been released which were at the time the largest ever, and of these twelve, ten were released less than a year after the previous largest model ([Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization?startLargeScaleEra=2015-9-1&largeScaleAction=ignore&outliersAction=ignore&recordSettersAction=isolate&bigAlphagoAction=remove&plotRegressions=false&preset=Record%20setting%20models%20-%20compute&systemNames=show%20record%20setters&limitPanAndZoom=false&labelEras=false&showLegend=false&showDoublingTimes=false&labelPoints=true))", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2026, an AI model has been deemed by the US Government (any relevant agency or department) to have been trained using more than 1e26 FLOP, as specified in clause 4.2 (b) (i) of the [Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/).\n\nIf the Executive Order on AI is revoked or materially amended such that the 1e26 criterion no longer applies, then the question will be annulled.", "fine_print": "It must be publicly reported by the resolution date that such a model has been trained (as judged by the US Government). For example, if the US Government determines in January 2026 that a qualifying AI model existed in 2025, this will not count for resolution.\n\nThe Executive Order on AI will be deemed to have been revoked or materially amended if [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20522/ai-model-reporting-in-us-at-end-of-2025/) (on AI model reporting in the US) resolves as No, or [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20279/executive-order-on-ai-repealed/)—“Executive Order on AI Repealed”—resolves as Yes, before the present question resolves.", "post_id": 21147, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741269148.524521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741269148.524521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.9 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.09999999999999998, 0.9 ], "means": [ 0.8212722164563623 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25741247186764954, 0.0, 1.399892862493966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.3241864722294797, 0.10527918291777463, 0.33432944568041745, 0.29853580031441634, 0.4601175471555784, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.28304800047084083, 0.4978514403183156, 2.6958301632308457 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287581.099591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287581.099591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.056081225458533224, 0.9439187745414668 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 67, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On October 30, 2023, President Biden implemented an [Executive Order on Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2023/10/30/fact-sheet-president-biden-issues-executive-order-on-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-artificial-intelligence/) ([EO 14110](https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2023/11/01/2023-24283/safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence)) Among other things, this Order requires developers of powerful AI models—those “trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 10^26 integer or floating-point operations”—to comply with certain reporting requirements.\n\nAs of February 2024, no model exists that meets the Order’s criteria. The largest known model is Gemini Ultra at 9e25 FLOP, according to [Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization). In the last decade, twelve new models have been released which were at the time the largest ever, and of these twelve, ten were released less than a year after the previous largest model ([Epoch](https://epochai.org/mlinputs/visualization?startLargeScaleEra=2015-9-1&largeScaleAction=ignore&outliersAction=ignore&recordSettersAction=isolate&bigAlphagoAction=remove&plotRegressions=false&preset=Record%20setting%20models%20-%20compute&systemNames=show%20record%20setters&limitPanAndZoom=false&labelEras=false&showLegend=false&showDoublingTimes=false&labelPoints=true))" }, { "id": 21146, "title": "Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?", "short_title": "Non-tech company trains AI model", "url_title": "Non-tech company trains AI model", "slug": "non-tech-company-trains-ai-model", "author_id": 137452, "author_username": "odelaney", "coauthors": [ { "id": 100912, "username": "PeterWildeford" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-23T07:20:01.438979Z", "published_at": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.116903Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 3, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2342, "type": "question_series", "name": "AGI Outcomes", "slug": "agi-horizons", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/agi.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:42.701000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T19:39:46.629282Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2907, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future of AI", "slug": "future-of-ai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/foa-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-31T00:00:35Z", "close_date": "2048-01-02T00:00:35Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-31T01:10:36.040444Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T22:35:13.786996Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2907, "type": "question_series", "name": "Future of AI", "slug": "future-of-ai", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/foa-cover.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-31T00:00:35Z", "close_date": "2048-01-02T00:00:35Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-31T01:10:36.040444Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T22:35:13.786996Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21146, "title": "Will a Fortune 500 Global non-tech company train a frontier AI model before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-23T07:20:01.438979Z", "open_time": "2024-02-15T00:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-18T00:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-18T00:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-03-11T21:45:51.750142Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-04T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "To date, frontier AI models have been created exclusively by tech companies. This may change if other companies decide that having an in-house model, trained on their proprietary data, will be sufficiently valuable to warrant training their own frontier model.\n\nThe number of companies producing frontier AI models is relevant for AI safety and governance because, all else equal, more actors results in more coordination difficulties. Additionally, there being more actors makes it more likely that one of the actors will be reckless.\n\n—\n\nThanks to user dschartz, whose [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/) inspired ours.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time between January 1, 2024 and January 1, 2026, there is a non-tech company that trains a frontier AI model and is in the [Fortune 500 Global list](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/) in the year the model is first publicly known to exist.\n\nWe define a “non-tech company” as a company which (a) is not in the [technology](https://fortune.com/ranking/global500/search/?sector=Technology) sector according to Fortune, and also (b) is neither Amazon nor Alibaba. (These two are classed as “retail” companies, but for our purposes they are still tech.)\n\nWe furthermore define a \"frontier AI model\" as one that was trained with at least one-tenth as much FLOP as the largest known model at that time. For example, as of January 2024, the largest known model is Gemini Ultra, [estimated by Epoch](https://epochai.org/data/epochdb/visualization) to have trained with 9e25 FLOP. Thus by our definition, an AI model must have been trained with at least 9e24 FLOP to count as frontier, at present. This threshold will change as the largest known model changes.\n\nA model's training compute will be established by its developer's own publication or through a credible report, for example Epoch's “[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database (the relevant columns being “Publication date” and “Training compute (FLOP)”).", "fine_print": "It must be publicly reported during the question period—i.e., before 2026—that such a company has trained such a model. For example, information reported in January 2026 that a qualifying company plus model existed in 2025 will not count for resolution.", "post_id": 21146, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1741713544.653463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.013 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1741713544.653463, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.013 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.18271657859469467 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.9457430403376368, 0.6316182707232363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.281024336275, 0.3764295304079803, 1.230887815716027, 0.32677805160011447, 0.17305452335961788, 0.09988641768552058, 0.8075193842755515, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2819710410581078, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11847113291540433, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027803991347064502, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14416102371707562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -0.5831626782385539, "peer_score": 0.04102729206114007, "coverage": 0.026833390542797847, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9955929679818487, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": -0.5831626782385539, "peer_archived_score": 0.04102729206114007, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289455.917521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289455.917521, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9946105742864553, 0.005389425713544671 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 4, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "To date, frontier AI models have been created exclusively by tech companies. This may change if other companies decide that having an in-house model, trained on their proprietary data, will be sufficiently valuable to warrant training their own frontier model.\n\nThe number of companies producing frontier AI models is relevant for AI safety and governance because, all else equal, more actors results in more coordination difficulties. Additionally, there being more actors makes it more likely that one of the actors will be reckless.\n\n—\n\nThanks to user dschartz, whose [question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17280/frontier-ai-lab-in-china/) inspired ours." }, { "id": 21140, "title": "Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?", "short_title": "CDU open to AfD coalition by 2030", "url_title": "CDU open to AfD coalition by 2030", "slug": "cdu-open-to-afd-coalition-by-2030", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T15:40:49.869952Z", "published_at": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T12:38:59.081115Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21140, "title": "Will the Christian Democratic Union of Germany announce that it is open to negotiating a coalition with the Alternative for Germany before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T15:40:49.869952Z", "open_time": "2024-02-25T02:50:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-28T02:50:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-28T02:50:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The AfD is a German right-wing party that is polling with a large margin as the second strongest party in Germany (at 22% of the vote). [Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_21._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen)\n\nThe CDU is a center-right party that is polling as the strongest party, with 30%. In 2018 and 2020 the CDU has made public declarations not to work with the AfD:\n\n> The following applies to the CDU in Germany: There is no cooperation with the AfD - neither in direct nor indirect form. [Translation from CDU website](https://archiv.cdu.de/system/tdf/media/dokumente/cdu_deutschlands_unsere_haltung_zu_linkspartei_und_afd_0.pdf?file=1)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves Yes if the [Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Democratic_Union_of_Germany) announces that it is open to negotiating a coalition, at the federal level, that includes the [Alternative for Germany (AfD)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alternative_for_Germany)", "fine_print": "The announcement has to be from an official channel of the party and it has to be based on regular decision processes from the party. \n\n- A hacking attack on its website or a rogue spokesperson would not count. \n- Statements from individual politicians, even from politicians in party leadership positions, would not count.\n- Announcement that a coalition has been formed would count for resolution", "post_id": 21140, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758371928.80465, "end_time": 1759012981.423713, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758371928.80465, "end_time": 1759012981.423713, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.31 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.244745873425008 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.16901785917633289, 0.0, 1.4004849088757885, 0.6220865835985105, 0.0, 0.1387803475283947, 0.5265764566181663, 0.7123104299926866, 0.0, 0.40633218071331956, 0.0, 0.0, 1.406501278008557, 0.0, 0.19043220276906433, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8223043488980846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02228029431348015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9706177265768967, 0.44358054667768915, 0.0, 0.7922460993238396, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1717686095865529, 0.0, 0.2819752713399747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23260372818648983, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8823361337628611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05224102104996991, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3395232167316722 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288308.513411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288308.513411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.984801243865601, 0.015198756134399022 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 168, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The AfD is a German right-wing party that is polling with a large margin as the second strongest party in Germany (at 22% of the vote). [Wikipedia](https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wahl_zum_21._Deutschen_Bundestag/Umfragen_und_Prognosen)\n\nThe CDU is a center-right party that is polling as the strongest party, with 30%. In 2018 and 2020 the CDU has made public declarations not to work with the AfD:\n\n> The following applies to the CDU in Germany: There is no cooperation with the AfD - neither in direct nor indirect form. [Translation from CDU website](https://archiv.cdu.de/system/tdf/media/dokumente/cdu_deutschlands_unsere_haltung_zu_linkspartei_und_afd_0.pdf?file=1)" }, { "id": 21139, "title": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?", "short_title": "The one hour genome", "url_title": "The one hour genome", "slug": "the-one-hour-genome", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T05:53:08.176894Z", "published_at": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-07T04:22:20.146624Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 16, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21139, "title": "Will the cost of sequencing a human genome in 2031 be less than the value of one hour of US labor productivity?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T05:53:08.176894Z", "open_time": "2024-02-16T18:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-19T18:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-19T18:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2031-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Question is largely taken from these two questions about the [cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11371/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2031/) ([alternatively](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12807/cost-of-sequencing-whole-human-genome/) ) and [labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12916/us-gdp-per-hour-worked-productivity/). As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.\n\nQuestion is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the cost of sequencing a single human genome is less than the value of 1 hour of labor productivity in the US according to the most recent information available on December 31, 2031.\n\nThe genome cost part of the question will be determined by information provided by the [US National Human Genome Research Institute](https://www.genome.gov/about-genomics/fact-sheets/DNA-Sequencing-Costs-Data). If that is not available, then an alternative source will be used.\n\nUS labor productivity will be resolved using data from the [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-hour-pennworldtable?tab=chart&country=~USA).\n\nThe resolution will be based on the nominal values on the resolution date.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757218929.232827, "end_time": 1758546521.295353, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7054635286000001 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757218929.232827, "end_time": 1758546521.295353, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7054635286000001 ], "centers": [ 0.76 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.24, 0.76 ], "means": [ 0.7359249398313916 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05653002612181358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.3518479272958788, 0.2931027540164327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.876931883579203, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31212449948102455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7653423179917583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6449619161727248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6643928047021255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287773.902595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287773.902595, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33241556760512936, 0.6675844323948706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Question is largely taken from these two questions about the [cost of a genome in 2031 in 2021 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11371/human-genome-sequencing-cost-in-2031/) ([alternatively](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12807/cost-of-sequencing-whole-human-genome/) ) and [labor productivity in 2032 in the US in 2017 USD](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12916/us-gdp-per-hour-worked-productivity/). As of January 22, 2024, the former has a community prediction of $68.18 and the latter has a community median of $90.70, hence under those parameters, this question would likely resolve yes, as the latter figure uses more deflated dollars.\n\nQuestion is a binary that simply asks whether average labor productivity per hour in 2031 would be lower than the costs for sequencing a full human genome in 2031." }, { "id": 21138, "title": "Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?", "short_title": "Somaliland Recognition by Ethiopia in 2024", "url_title": "Somaliland Recognition by Ethiopia in 2024", "slug": "somaliland-recognition-by-ethiopia-in-2024", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T02:44:38.909109Z", "published_at": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.040313Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21138, "title": "Will Ethiopia formally recognise Somaliland in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T02:44:38.909109Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T17:57:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T17:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T17:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T22:12:14.747255Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if in 2024 Ethiopia formally recognises the Republic of Somaliland as an independent state, as reported either by credible sources or directly by the Ethiopian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.", "fine_print": "International law is clear (custom, codified in the 1933 Montevideo Convention on the Rights and Duties of States): state recognition is an irrevocable act. Therefore, this question will resolve **Yes** even if Ethiopia decides to withdraw the recognition at a later timepoint.", "post_id": 21138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735623757.895203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735623757.895203, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.06997732098101504 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.0065308105668356, 1.7334835713503243, 0.0, 1.3170803026450875, 0.0, 0.3935277555318061, 0.21228082485103633, 0.0, 1.1160614035769407, 0.7479402277203934, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2748574657272404, 0.24207219377702496, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11892943297667151, 0.0, 0.3108648595307786, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09550609340386881, 0.08517259963641256, 0.0, 0.160831023763914, 0.0, 0.10111441089353605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04710224358329484, 0.0, 0.020706884286877357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07095202666684558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013684347437579939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 52.543389401075345, "peer_score": 5.943650935632973, "coverage": 0.9998954760347415, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998954760347415, "spot_peer_score": 18.41445193009899, "spot_baseline_score": 44.36066514756145, "baseline_archived_score": 52.543389401075345, "peer_archived_score": 5.943650935632973, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.41445193009899, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 44.36066514756145 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287186.211903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287186.211903, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8985906036132713, 0.10140939638672876 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal." }, { "id": 21137, "title": "Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?", "short_title": "Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland casualties", "url_title": "Ethiopia, Somalia, Somaliland casualties", "slug": "ethiopia-somalia-somaliland-casualties", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-22T01:50:02.915706Z", "published_at": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.324840Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 28, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21137, "title": "Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-22T01:50:02.915706Z", "open_time": "2024-02-28T22:35:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-02T22:35:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-02T22:35:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-08T22:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-08T22:14:46.505582Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been at least 200 deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia, Somalia, or Somaliland caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of any of the other states.", "fine_print": "- Armed forces under government control will qualify, but rebel groups and groups supported by the government financially or otherwise will not.\n- Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths and casualties among members of the armed forces of any of the militaries occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n- If a range is provided by a source, the [mid-range](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mid-range) must be equal to the threshold. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.", "post_id": 21137, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735312217.564029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735312217.564029, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.028354753241949006 ], "histogram": [ [ 6.061677808385143, 0.39604892130950153, 0.0, 0.5380474745637874, 0.6617223584560195, 0.07222045505988617, 0.0, 0.4458609743834946, 0.2890685540519878, 0.0, 0.07805035281635142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06414156534256711, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2853327939587583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 90.6809562768878, "peer_score": 7.4118666662600186, "coverage": 0.999935046489181, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999935046489181, "spot_peer_score": 14.734234761621178, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 90.6809562768878, "peer_archived_score": 7.4118666662600186, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.734234761621178, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288853.762365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288853.762365, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.972172557789744, 0.027827442210256056 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 97, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Somaliland is an unrecognised state, which presents itself as the successor state to British Somaliland and the short-lived State of Somaliland which followed. In 1991, Somaliland broke away from Somalia after a decade-long rebellion against Siad Barre's ruling government. Since then, it has been a de facto independent country with democratically elected governments. Despite that, it has not been formally recognised by any UN member state.\n\nEthiopia is one of the few landlocked countries of the Horn of Africa. Abiy Ahmed, Ethiopia's Prime Minister [has called](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-67332811) its access to the sea an \"existential question\". He also said that if Ethiopia fails to get a port by peaceful means, they will use force.\n\nEthiopia and Somaliland [recently signed a deal](https://thesoufancenter.org/intelbrief-2024-january-11/) that grants Addis Ababa twelve miles of sea access along the Somaliland coast for the next 50 years, where Ethiopia plans to construct a naval base. In return, Ethiopia would consider recognising Somaliland's independence. However, this move has been met with resistance from Somalia, which claims that the deal violates its territorial integrity. [Recently](https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/somalia-rejects-mediation-efforts-with-ethiopia-over-port-deal-2024-01-18/), Somalia rejected any mediation efforts with Ethiopia over the port deal." }, { "id": 21126, "title": "Railguns used in warfare before 2035?", "short_title": "Railguns in war by 2035?", "url_title": "Railguns in war by 2035?", "slug": "railguns-in-war-by-2035", "author_id": 116440, "author_username": "uganda", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-20T09:59:18.450655Z", "published_at": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.971805Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21126, "title": "Railguns used in warfare before 2035?", "created_at": "2024-01-20T09:59:18.450655Z", "open_time": "2024-04-13T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-16T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-16T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2035-01-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2034-12-31T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2034-12-31T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Railguns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railgun) can be thought of as extremely powerful cannons with electrical instead of chemical propulsion. Electromagnetic launch by railgun can accelerate massive projectiles to very high velocities. Militaries have expressed interest in railgun technology and have [deployed prototypes for testing](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/japan-performs-first-ever-railgun-test-from-ship-at-sea/). Essentially, deployment of railguns would fundamentally change the way cannons have worked for centuries, giving more practical range and destructive potential per shot. Moving from chemically powered artillery to railguns would also shift the logistical and industrial needs associated with military firepower, which could have broader economic consequences.\n\nThe technical definition of a railgun is a linear motor where the projectile and/or something attached to the projectile is the armature which shorts two parallel rails, with the current flowing through one rail, across the armature and through the other rail creating Lorentz forces which accelerate the projectile along the rails.\n\nIf railguns become feasible, two additional potential advantages it offers a military is that it greatly reduces the cost of projectiles, as well as increased safety for its troops due to the lack of explosive propellant. ([Source](https://www.electropages.com/blog/2020/01/four-things-know-about-railguns))\n\nSee also: \n\n- Interesting Engineering: [China claims breakthrough in electromagnetic rail gun](https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-claims-breakthrough-in-electromagnetic-rail-gun)\n\n- ExecutiveGov: [The Ultimate Guide to Rail Gun: Technology, Applications, and Advancements](https://executivegov.com/articles/the-ultimate-guide-to-rail-gun-technology-applications-and-advancements/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if 2 [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report the deployment and operational use of a railgun in an active military conflict by the military of any country before January 1, 2035.", "fine_print": "The outcome or effectiveness of the railgun’s usage is immaterial for purposes of resolving this question.", "post_id": 21126, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1740403024.970444, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1740403024.970444, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.57 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.42039243849616803 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.560245764355437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6537484749236214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8551780792173851, 0.4012260631462153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6089113662881536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47632380816539127, 0.0644634174904052, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8727500189273638, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287672.025225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287672.025225, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6548022510503262, 0.34519774894967376 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Railguns](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Railgun) can be thought of as extremely powerful cannons with electrical instead of chemical propulsion. Electromagnetic launch by railgun can accelerate massive projectiles to very high velocities. Militaries have expressed interest in railgun technology and have [deployed prototypes for testing](https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2023/10/japan-performs-first-ever-railgun-test-from-ship-at-sea/). Essentially, deployment of railguns would fundamentally change the way cannons have worked for centuries, giving more practical range and destructive potential per shot. Moving from chemically powered artillery to railguns would also shift the logistical and industrial needs associated with military firepower, which could have broader economic consequences.\n\nThe technical definition of a railgun is a linear motor where the projectile and/or something attached to the projectile is the armature which shorts two parallel rails, with the current flowing through one rail, across the armature and through the other rail creating Lorentz forces which accelerate the projectile along the rails.\n\nIf railguns become feasible, two additional potential advantages it offers a military is that it greatly reduces the cost of projectiles, as well as increased safety for its troops due to the lack of explosive propellant. ([Source](https://www.electropages.com/blog/2020/01/four-things-know-about-railguns))\n\nSee also: \n\n- Interesting Engineering: [China claims breakthrough in electromagnetic rail gun](https://interestingengineering.com/military/china-claims-breakthrough-in-electromagnetic-rail-gun)\n\n- ExecutiveGov: [The Ultimate Guide to Rail Gun: Technology, Applications, and Advancements](https://executivegov.com/articles/the-ultimate-guide-to-rail-gun-technology-applications-and-advancements/)" }, { "id": 21120, "title": "Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?", "short_title": "Fani Willis Cease To Prosecute Trump", "url_title": "Fani Willis Cease To Prosecute Trump", "slug": "fani-willis-cease-to-prosecute-trump", "author_id": 127582, "author_username": "lbiii", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-19T00:34:21.287022Z", "published_at": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.737403Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 189, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 167, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21120, "title": "Before April 1, 2024, will Fani Willis cease to be an attorney for the prosecution in the State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. case?", "created_at": "2024-01-19T00:34:21.287022Z", "open_time": "2024-01-23T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-01T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-31T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigation). \n\nWillis has encountered [new controversy](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defendant-trumps-georgia-case-accuses-da-prosecutor-improper-relationship-2024-01-09/) concerning her association with attorney Nathan Wade, whom she hired as a special prosecutor on the case. The relationship between Willis and Wade has been the subject of intense scrutiny due to allegations of an improper relationship between the two. \n\nMost recently, counsel for Michael Roman, a co-defendant in the Trump case, filed a [motion to disqualify](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24352568-roman-motion-to-dimiss-010824) both Willis and Wade, claiming they concealed a romantic relationship and enjoyed vacations together funded by taxpayer money. The motion, set for deliberation at a [February 15 hearing]( https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-judge-calls-hearing-fani-183618076.html) asks the court to disqualify Willis, Wade, and the Fulton County DA’s office from prosecuting the case.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves \"Yes\" if, prior to April 1, 2024, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that Fani Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution in The State of Georgia v. Donald Trump, et al. (Case No. 23SC188947).\n\nThe mechanism by which Willis ceases to be attorney for the prosecution (e.g. a voluntary withdrawal or a disqualification by the court) does not matter, so long as credible sources report that Willis no longer acts as attorney for the prosecution.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21120, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711893211.758002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711893211.758002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.044527704404752844 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.157983222823464, 10.705460903119056, 0.40522645196146384, 0.3451155827534088, 0.39302035448116757, 0.8562601664014954, 0.0, 0.6960184824069715, 0.1674083473189594, 0.04863785962520711, 0.005860822524481891, 4.9041288936054526e-05, 0.6104171031057308, 0.0, 0.009310274235753044, 0.012539843323394858, 0.0, 0.01652180896457576, 0.0, 0.012059483612763041, 0.0789754687101604, 0.0011272670367846742, 0.00019086407360581327, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009154529733278871, 0.0, 0.005291242225453894, 0.0013626926281197823, 0.0, 0.009714513885166158, 0.0, 0.001070011959977349, 0.0013077077507505416, 0.0, 0.7052246217897699, 0.0, 0.0017200370305171628, 0.004059686617220235, 1.3800618116531336e-05, 0.9990728667855694, 0.0012584808186771681, 0.016721045941167238, 0.002153807656502686, 0.0, 0.006825239096795841, 0.002492062113904876, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006989063975177014, 0.007724460892062269, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01769180809541363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013733831928901057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016991584103968405, 2.827992863265363e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0028747770043234962, 0.0, 0.004956403621968732, 0.001474076265742063, 6.772471817195793e-05, 0.00015134932652720963, 6.730855628174284e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007780322927941418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018555049631988577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.2844960641040047e-05, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 17.467079177838123, "coverage": 0.9999434489427885, "baseline_score": 48.89790258539717, "spot_peer_score": 4.591314063424992, "peer_archived_score": 17.467079177838123, "baseline_archived_score": 48.89790258539717, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.591314063424992 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711893211.811875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711893211.811875, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 167, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1362, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Fani Willis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fani_Willis), the Fulton County District Attorney, has been at the forefront of a significant legal inquiry into former President Donald Trump's conduct in Georgia in the [immediate aftermath of the 2020 election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Georgia_election_investigation). \n\nWillis has encountered [new controversy](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/defendant-trumps-georgia-case-accuses-da-prosecutor-improper-relationship-2024-01-09/) concerning her association with attorney Nathan Wade, whom she hired as a special prosecutor on the case. The relationship between Willis and Wade has been the subject of intense scrutiny due to allegations of an improper relationship between the two. \n\nMost recently, counsel for Michael Roman, a co-defendant in the Trump case, filed a [motion to disqualify](https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/24352568-roman-motion-to-dimiss-010824) both Willis and Wade, claiming they concealed a romantic relationship and enjoyed vacations together funded by taxpayer money. The motion, set for deliberation at a [February 15 hearing]( https://news.yahoo.com/georgia-judge-calls-hearing-fani-183618076.html) asks the court to disqualify Willis, Wade, and the Fulton County DA’s office from prosecuting the case." }, { "id": 21114, "title": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?", "short_title": "ChatGPT back in China by 2026", "url_title": "ChatGPT back in China by 2026", "slug": "chatgpt-back-in-china-by-2026", "author_id": 110500, "author_username": "MaxR", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-18T10:33:17.818715Z", "published_at": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T21:58:43.558586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21114, "title": "Will OpenAI offer ChatGPT in China before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-18T10:33:17.818715Z", "open_time": "2024-01-30T23:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-02T23:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-02T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)\n\nIn a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:\n\n> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow \"quite a lot of individual customization\" and \"that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable,\" because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.\n\n> \"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds,\" Altman tells Axios. \"But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools.\"\n\n> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, \"It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important.\"", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes based on credible reports that ChatGPT is available to users in China.", "fine_print": "* This will also resolve positively if only the API version is available. \n* If ChatGPT is not the model from OpenAI offered in China, a language-based AI product offered by OpenAI that is deemed a successor or very similar in its function to the ChatGPT product from late 2023 is also sufficient for the question to resolve Yes.\n* If it becomes available between now and the resolution date and then gets banned again, or taken from the market by OpenAI, this question would also resolve positively.", "post_id": 21114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757289195.067927, "end_time": 1759445504.993494, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757289195.067927, "end_time": 1759445504.993494, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028880782172667752 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7610215490953556, 2.5476424961740536, 0.7118165837590469, 0.49184465768954627, 0.18623347431533535, 1.3342708915004495, 0.0, 0.09570280051650464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5584580948134545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289041.933639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289041.933639, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.98778293685233, 0.012217063147669979 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 121, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> As of April 2023, ChatGPT is blocked by China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. In addition, ChatGPT geofences itself to avoid doing business in China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ChatGPT#Basic_service)\n\nIn a [January 2024 interview](https://www.axios.com/2024/01/17/sam-altman-davos-ai-future-interview), Sam Altman talked about customizing ChatGPT to different countries:\n\n> Altman believes future AI products will need to allow \"quite a lot of individual customization\" and \"that's going to make a lot of people uncomfortable,\" because AI will give different answers for different users, based on their values preferences and possibly on what country they reside in.\n\n> \"If the country said, you know, all gay people should be killed on sight, then no ... that is well out of bounds,\" Altman tells Axios. \"But there are probably other things that I don't personally agree with, but a different culture might. ... We have to be somewhat uncomfortable as a tool builder with some of the uses of our tools.\"\n\n> Asked if future versions of OpenAI products might answer a question differently in different countries based on that country's values, Altman said, \"It'll be different for users with different values. The countries issue I think, is somewhat less important.\"" }, { "id": 21109, "title": "Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?", "short_title": "Donald Trump Wins 2024 New Hampshire Primary?", "url_title": "Donald Trump Wins 2024 New Hampshire Primary?", "slug": "donald-trump-wins-2024-new-hampshire-primary", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-17T16:15:09.536498Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.537662Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 165, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21109, "title": "Will Donald Trump win the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary?", "created_at": "2024-01-17T16:15:09.536498Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T20:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-18T10:06:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-18T10:06:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-26T16:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-23T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Donald Trump won the most delegates in the Iowa caucus on January 15th, 2024, receiving [20 of the 40 available](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/). Ron DeSantis came in second with nine delegates and Nikki Haley came in [third place](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/) winning eight delegates.\n\nThe New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and [polling](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/) indicates a closer race than that of [Iowa](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/). As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump wins the most delegates in the 2024 New Hampshire primary, according to reports from credible sources.", "fine_print": "* Winning the most delegates will be considered to be winning more than other candidates, and in the event Donald Trump ties for the most delegates this question will resolve as **No**.", "post_id": 21109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706024327.754915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706024327.754915, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.995 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9684853940547609 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018070550457459766, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02022247501321974, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00016294025582159138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9617659974500482, 1.491442382829218e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025220927096469854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5577611613174602, 0.007865787827795475, 0.0, 0.0, 7.172670065044927e-06, 0.06803835567264989, 0.0, 0.000897200773152788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00616310222697025, 0.6788121739680018, 0.01675260956746568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7646677732459555, 1.1175314300285244, 0.42764184823151496, 1.4356835749803962, 18.086432131993398 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.368167992949562, "coverage": 0.9993886516252026, "baseline_score": 94.0532572292228, "spot_peer_score": 11.58402116461471, "peer_archived_score": 6.368167992949562, "baseline_archived_score": 94.0532572292228, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.58402116461471 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706024327.798744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706024327.798744, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 165, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.03435056984224005, 0.96564943015776 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 395, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Donald Trump won the most delegates in the Iowa caucus on January 15th, 2024, receiving [20 of the 40 available](https://www.politico.com/2024-election/results/president/). Ron DeSantis came in second with nine delegates and Nikki Haley came in [third place](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/21005/nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses/) winning eight delegates.\n\nThe New Hampshire primary is scheduled to be held on January 23, 2024, and [polling](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/new-hampshire/) indicates a closer race than that of [Iowa](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-r/2024/iowa/). As of January 17, FiveThirtyEight's polling average has Trump at 43.5% in New Hampshire, followed by Nikki Haley at 30.5%." }, { "id": 21108, "title": "Will Brazil reach zero primary forest loss before 2030?", "short_title": "Brazil zero primary forest loss before 2030", "url_title": "Brazil zero primary forest loss before 2030", "slug": "brazil-zero-primary-forest-loss-before-2030", "author_id": 131932, "author_username": "freelancejosh93", "coauthors": [ { "id": 111743, "username": "NathanpmYoung" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-17T15:33:56.841254Z", "published_at": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:47.238204Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 15, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21108, "title": "Will Brazil reach zero primary forest loss before 2030?", "created_at": "2024-01-17T15:33:56.841254Z", "open_time": "2024-04-22T10:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-25T10:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-25T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-02T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Primary forests, which are crucial for storing carbon and harboring biodiversity, are irreplaceable. Loss of these forests leads to long-term ecological changes, as secondary forests regrown in their place do not attain the same levels of carbon storage or biodiversity for many decades, if ever. Please use [this link](https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/primary-forest-loss#:~:text=Any%20loss%20of%20primary%20forest,for%20several%20decades%20or%20longer.) to find out more information about the importance of primary forests.\n\nThe Amazon is home to vast biodiversity and indigenous populations and is vital in the global fight against climate change.\n\nIn 2023, deforestation in Brazil's Amazon decreased by nearly 50% from the previous year, the lowest rate in five years, with 5,153 sq km cleared. This reduction, still six times larger than New York City, reflects President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's commitment to combat deforestation. Increased inspections by Ibama contributed significantly to this decline.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will immediately resolve to **Yes** if Brazil is reported by Global Forest Watch (GFW) through its Brazil Deforestation Rates & Statistics dashboard (accessible at [this link](https://www.globalforestwatch.org/dashboards/country/BRA/) ) to have reached zero primary forest loss at any point before the end of 2030. If GFW does not confirm that Brazil has reached zero primary forest loss before the end of 2030, the market will resolve to **No**.\n\nIf GFW ceases to exist prior to the end of this market, other reputable climate news organisations or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) will be relied upon at Metaculus' discretion.", "fine_print": "\"Primary Forest Loss\" refers to the measure reported by Global Forest Watch.\n\nPrimary forests are defined as mature, natural, humid tropical forests that haven't been fully cleared and regrown recently. Researchers use Landsat images to map these forests regionally with specific algorithms.\n\n\"Loss\" of tree cover refers to tree removal or death from causes like harvesting, fire, disease, or storms, but it does not necessarily mean deforestation.\n\nIt will be considered to be \"Zero Primary Forest Loss\" if the measure of \"extent of primary forest remaining\" is the same one year as it was the previous year. For example, if in 2028 the figure is 89.1% and in 2029 it is 89.1%, the question will resolve to Yes even if there was a marginal amount of absolute primary forest loss.", "post_id": 21108, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755486905.343511, "end_time": 1761444882.129525, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755486905.343511, "end_time": 1761444882.129525, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.10366701076096063 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8187666704372738, 0.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.9314153526083463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2680384629348616, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288736.045726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288736.045726, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.96996661394261, 0.030033386057389994 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 27, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Primary forests, which are crucial for storing carbon and harboring biodiversity, are irreplaceable. Loss of these forests leads to long-term ecological changes, as secondary forests regrown in their place do not attain the same levels of carbon storage or biodiversity for many decades, if ever. Please use [this link](https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/primary-forest-loss#:~:text=Any%20loss%20of%20primary%20forest,for%20several%20decades%20or%20longer.) to find out more information about the importance of primary forests.\n\nThe Amazon is home to vast biodiversity and indigenous populations and is vital in the global fight against climate change.\n\nIn 2023, deforestation in Brazil's Amazon decreased by nearly 50% from the previous year, the lowest rate in five years, with 5,153 sq km cleared. This reduction, still six times larger than New York City, reflects President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's commitment to combat deforestation. Increased inspections by Ibama contributed significantly to this decline." }, { "id": 21093, "title": "Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?", "short_title": "New team wins Super Bowl in 2024?", "url_title": "New team wins Super Bowl in 2024?", "slug": "new-team-wins-super-bowl-in-2024", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-16T22:04:35.055268Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.911801Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 95, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21093, "title": "Will a team that has never won the Super Bowl win in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-16T22:04:35.055268Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-23T03:51:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-23T03:51:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-11T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-29T04:35:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[12 teams](https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-teams-never-won-super-bowl-list-2024) have never won a Super Bowl. Three of them are still in contention to win Super Bowl 58:\n\n- Buffalo Bills\n- Detroit Lions\n- Houston Texans\n\nIn the [divisional round](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39307439/nfl-playoffs-bracket-reset-divisional-round-schedule-afc-nfc), the Lions host the Buccaneers, Texans travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens, and the Bills host the Chiefs.\n\nHere's the [full bracket](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10105200-nfl-playoff-bracket-2024-updated-picture-schedule-after-super-wild-card).\n\n<img src=\"https://media.bleacherreport.com/image/upload/w_800,h_533,c_fill/v1705427867/a8hrzw0bvct9dijiircg.jpg\" alt=\"Description of the image\" />", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, or Houston Texans win [Super Bowl 58](https://www.nfl.com/super-bowl/event-info/).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21093, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706535898.907496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706535898.907496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 98, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.024453174628882548 ], "histogram": [ [ 11.369364443596627, 4.085453440126638, 0.008225835367758692, 0.17007896549022494, 0.23623934583110234, 0.29750209797401905, 0.12458637695839893, 0.1246260927021633, 0.001185942719911764, 0.15171345935969954, 0.3897937078306163, 0.0, 0.13642204494929452, 0.0, 0.02020217564057056, 0.18497565815949563, 0.16940609254472613, 0.0, 0.010950938381210888, 0.05910574656195625, 0.18285899493482236, 0.0007075207321053673, 0.06341426086404857, 0.009971818499667707, 0.0, 0.15634531788016276, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004394686938744043, 0.0, 0.30675771358978204, 0.0, 0.005377545383645285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002995338572454472, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006734474812209602, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023871239004235455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.243836287539353, "coverage": 0.45909663949510515, "baseline_score": 34.95220226477233, "spot_peer_score": 7.748515147245001, "peer_archived_score": 2.243836287539353, "baseline_archived_score": 34.95220226477233, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.748515147245001 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1706498626.103632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1706498626.103632, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 94, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 230, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[12 teams](https://ftw.usatoday.com/lists/nfl-teams-never-won-super-bowl-list-2024) have never won a Super Bowl. Three of them are still in contention to win Super Bowl 58:\n\n- Buffalo Bills\n- Detroit Lions\n- Houston Texans\n\nIn the [divisional round](https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39307439/nfl-playoffs-bracket-reset-divisional-round-schedule-afc-nfc), the Lions host the Buccaneers, Texans travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens, and the Bills host the Chiefs.\n\nHere's the [full bracket](https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10105200-nfl-playoff-bracket-2024-updated-picture-schedule-after-super-wild-card).\n\n<img src=\"https://media.bleacherreport.com/image/upload/w_800,h_533,c_fill/v1705427867/a8hrzw0bvct9dijiircg.jpg\" alt=\"Description of the image\" />" }, { "id": 21081, "title": "Will the \"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office be greater than that of \"Dune (2021)\"?", "short_title": "\"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office", "url_title": "\"Dune: Part Two\" domestic opening box office", "slug": "dune-part-two-domestic-opening-box-office", "author_id": 113860, 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\"Dune (2021)\"?", "created_at": "2024-01-15T18:58:10.948516Z", "open_time": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-22T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-22T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-05T21:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Dune: Part Two](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune:_Part_Two) is an upcoming epic science fiction film directed by Denis Villeneuve. It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert. \n\nThe first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 2021 and earned $41,011,174 on its opening weekend according to the analytics site [Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3162015233/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs).\n\nThe second part is scheduled to be released on March 1, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the domestic box office weekend opening of **Dune: Part Two** as reported by its [page on Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl68715265/) is greater than $41,011,174, the opening of the **Dune (2021)**. If the reported value is less than or equal to $41,011,174 the question will resolve as **No**.\n\nThe box office value will be checked at least 10 days after the movie's release date to allow the actual data to be collected. Metaculus admins can further delay the question resolution date if there are reasons to believe that the value might significantly change and affect the resolution.", "fine_print": "If the release date is moved to March 20, 2024 or later, the question will be **Annulled**.\n\nNote that the box office of **Dune (2021)** is reported without adjustments for inflation. \n\nThe changes in box office of **Dune (2021)** will not affect the resolution criteria of this question. 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It is the second movie of a two-part adaptation of the 1965 novel Dune by Frank Herbert. \n\nThe first part, named [Dune](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dune_(2021_film)) was released in 2021 and earned $41,011,174 on its opening weekend according to the analytics site [Boxofficemojo](https://www.boxofficemojo.com/release/rl3162015233/weekend/?ref_=bo_rl_tab#tabs).\n\nThe second part is scheduled to be released on March 1, 2024." }, { "id": 21050, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?", "short_title": "2024 Kingswood by-election winner", "url_title": "2024 Kingswood by-election winner", "slug": "2024-kingswood-by-election-winner", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 114017, "username": "Kaleem" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:58:12.031325Z", "published_at": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:13.419549Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21050, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Party retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Kingswood by-election ?", "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:58:12.031325Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:16:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-16T16:16:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-16T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-16T04:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A by-election is expected to take place on 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood. This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Conservative Party, resigned in protest at the UK government's decision to issue more oil and gas licences, and ahead of a Parliamentary vote on the matter. Skidmore announced his resignation on 5 January and it was effected three days later. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Kingswood](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. 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This follows a [decision](https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/kingswood-election-everything-you-need-9020898) by its MP, Chris Skidmore, to stand down from Parliament. Skidmore, who represents the Conservative Party, resigned in protest at the UK government's decision to issue more oil and gas licences, and ahead of a Parliamentary vote on the matter. Skidmore announced his resignation on 5 January and it was effected three days later. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Kingswood_by-election)" } ] }
