Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2820
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2840", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2800", "results": [ { "id": 26407, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-russia-start-a-second-mobilization-wave-before-september-30-2024-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.646545Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.866886Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 67, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 39, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26407, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before September 30, 2024, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.646545Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T21:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolved as **Yes** if, before September 30, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "- For this resolution, \"mobilization\" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a \"partial mobilization.\" However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as \"[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)\" or \"self-mobilization,\" or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.\n\n- If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.\n\n- ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before September 30, 202, then this question will resolve as No.\n", "post_id": 26407, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830585.327634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830585.327634, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43904293505892655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1363712835194701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28794148447432993, 0.0, 0.7197018749430008, 0.007980258807527762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8698739979517854, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23862194135813283, 0.0, 0.3316752429508374, 0.0, 0.836190079618154, 1.296851155527498, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9225774080436027, 0.0, 0.10592775239849204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04583440182682791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8709205728864997, 0.0, 0.005273832250717887, 0.0, 0.01096609333389573, 0.18967896317068483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.850240976340088, 0.0, 0.23476588978119836, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09329258471159352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48035412566887614, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46404561502386255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830585.367627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830585.367627, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7437000300782899, 0.25629996992171017 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)" }, { "id": 26406, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-maximum-weekly-rate-of-covid-19-hospitalizations-occurring-in-the-united-states-between-june-1-and-august-31-2024-exceed-35-per-100000-people", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.552776Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.774133Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 60, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26406, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of COVID-19 hospitalizations occurring in the United States between June 1 and August 31, 2024 exceed 3.5 per 100,000 people?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.552776Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-20T23:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning).\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospital admissions per 100,000 people for COVID-19 between the weeks ending June 1, 2024, and August 31, 2024, (inclusive) exceeds 3.5 according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays, the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the figure for August 31, 2024, is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "* The following filters will be selected:\n\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\n * **Season:** \"2023-24\" (or whichever selections will encompass the dates in question)\n * **Pathogen:** \"All\" (Note that you can also filter to only show the pathogen of interest. Regardless, only the value corresponding to the listed pathogen will be used.)\n* This question is asking about the global maximum weekly rate, the highest value reached during the specified period.\n* In the event the data reporting is missing for more than two of the weeks included in the period when the question is expected to resolve, the question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 26406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830611.243253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830611.243253, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.502435733355728 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28211668489493613, 0.0, 0.14267316330622615, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8033422037945773, 0.31210550135292425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08216112299324102, 0.035579456289155105, 0.0, 0.6019627254324547, 0.0, 0.9215931031121718, 0.0, 0.1298586955044776, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2194273160075377, 0.1148171974242466, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7800991750591255, 0.24008158120479622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14634721205825776, 0.0, 0.18409965808495726, 0.0, 0.0, 3.7283896542557704, 0.0, 0.06718452183420129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20559680035186842, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22900802253318142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005716411657967498, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42198150311045435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16438976427023788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019676189570906492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830611.280319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830611.280319, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6704755836563716, 0.32952441634362833 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A [new COVID variant is on the rise](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/flirt-covid-variants-us-cases/) in the United States, variant KP.2, estimated at 28.2% of sequenced variants for the two-week period ending May 11, 2024, according to the CDC's [variant proportions Nowcast](https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#variant-proportions). The KP.2 variant is one of a set of new variants [nicknamed](https://twitter.com/tryangregory/status/1767884323938869586?t=NM6QgCzjQYBje9-ZtyxSvg) as the FLiRT variants after the F456L + R346T spike protein where this variant shows changes. The new variants have raised concerns of a potential [summer COVID surge](https://www.webmd.com/covid/news/20240430/new-variant-sparks-summer-covid-surge-warning).\n\nThe US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy)." }, { "id": 26405, "title": "Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-at-least-5-major-hurricanes-occur-in-the-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.470565Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.024391Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 71, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 40, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26405, "title": "Will at least 5 major hurricanes occur in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.470565Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane, was the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. On July 2, 2024, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to form. Colorado State university [is forecasting](https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) 6 major storms for 2024 as of July 19, 2024. ", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the total number of major hurricanes in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season stands at greater than or equal to five before September 30, 2024, according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) [website](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc). If the number is less than five when the NHC website is accessed by Metaculus on September 30, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThe National Weather Service [considers](https://www.weather.gov/mfl/saffirsimpson) a major hurricane to be anything Category Three or above, defined as having a 1-minute average of wind speeds greater than 110 mph (>95 knots or >177 km/hr).\n", "fine_print": "If the official NHC page is inaccessible or there is reason to believe its data is incorrect, another resolution source may be used.", "post_id": 26405, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830565.983779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830565.983779, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7065012329451698 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007369969155267514, 0.0, 0.1751732796751412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23756516408887024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059093793063776906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7228487183092427, 0.2659211825430975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11106637212534022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0088805867307373, 0.0, 0.12469124550422711, 0.46916959902833105, 0.004870516352324537, 0.8646675238447779, 0.3559187878370533, 0.926176038271715, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6170526440862192, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7911029106223837, 0.0, 0.06594039540813919, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4167700814197737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9235250802035939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010127462225706159, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721830566.024591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721830566.024591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3709186897218103, 0.6290813102781897 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 75, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Hurricane Beryl, a Category 5 hurricane, was the first major hurricane of the 2024 season. On July 2, 2024, it became the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record to form. Colorado State university [is forecasting](https://tropical.colostate.edu/forecasting.html) 6 major storms for 2024 as of July 19, 2024. " }, { "id": 26404, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-cannabis-be-removed-from-schedule-i-of-the-controlled-substance-act-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.335521Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.414737Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 38, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26404, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before September 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:50:44.335521Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-24T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Victoria Litman, M.Div., J.D., LL.M. writing at Harvard Law School's [Bill of Health blog](https://blog.petrieflom.law.harvard.edu/2024/05/28/what-you-need-to-know-about-marijuana-rescheduling/): \n\n>On May 21, 2024, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) published a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) signed by Attorney General Merrick Garland in the Federal Register. This publication kicks off a 62-day comment period on a rule that would move marijuana to Schedule 3 of the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), classifying it as a substance with “a moderate to low potential for physical and psychological dependence.” The process of rescheduling may be long and is unlikely to create a pathway to federal compliance for state-legal marijuana businesses without further federal legislation. Ultimately, Congress likely will need to clarify the division of federal and state regulatory powers over cannabis.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before September 30, 2024, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. 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Please find its product announcement [here](https://openai.com/index/hello-gpt-4o/). 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Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve as \"Yes\", Israel and Hamas must, before August 31st, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.\n\nIf there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve \"No\". The question will only resolve \"No\" if:\n\n- There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by August 30th at 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not start effect at least by September 29, 2024 at 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by October 4th at 11:59PM PDT.\n", "fine_print": "If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect.\n\nAttacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.\n\nA one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.\n\nCredit to [Infer-Pub](https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1353-will-there-be-an-agreed-upon-pause-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-hamas-that-starts-before-1-december-2024-and-lasts-at-least-30-days) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 26391, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744163.642881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744163.642881, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.44 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.36526869805541406 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08876401083006372, 0.0, 0.429306930151368, 0.5243776579668233, 0.2181568526776274, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.9160279542388619, 0.43670816614213404, 1.9409909373947505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.47494197203925326, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.4601964085771605, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7043378440860788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22270172488500573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07778848453959583, 0.029941953078415226, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10223706135307076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744163.677773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744163.677773, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7548194237695208, 0.24518057623047917 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)" }, { "id": 26390, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-bubble-in-the-magnificent-seven-pop-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.012678Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.048610Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 69, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26390, "title": "Will the bubble in the Magnificent Seven pop before September 30, 2024?\n", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:37.012678Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-28T12:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). At the time of writing, they are collectively worth $13.1 trillion, and their performance [has driven most of the gains in the S&P 500 over 2023](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-chart-shows-how-the-magnificent-7-have-dominated-the-stock-market-in-2023-203250125.html). \n\nThe Magnificent Seven's rise has left the S&P [more concentrated than at any time in the last 100 years](https://www.investopedia.com/magnificent-7-stocks-overcrowding-8576644) and prompted fears of a bubble.\n\nOn the other hand, it is possible that recent advances in artificial intelligence will generate so much profit that the Magnificent Seven's current share prices are fully justified by future cash flow.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve positively if at any point between now and before September 30, 2024, shares of at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms, and Tesla) close at least 50% below their all-time high.\n\nThe question shall be resolved by using the daily closing share prices available from [Yahoo Finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/) under the 'historical data' tab or, at the discretion of Metaculus admins, any other credible source of share price data.\n\nWhatever data source is used should be adjusted for share splits, so that this question does not resolve positive just because a few of the Magnificent Seven decide to do a stock split (ie offer N new shares for each old share).\n", "fine_print": "In case the text above isn't clear enough, an example: If Stock X's all-time high is $1,000 then it qualifies as down >50% if the share price falls below $500.\n\nPositive resolution requires that at least four of the Magnificent Seven stocks close down >50% from their all time high. Alphabet has two traded share classes, but only counts as one out of the seven companies. Alphabet counts if either of its two traded share classes (tickers GOOG and GOOGL) is at least 50% below its all-time high.\n\nSo if GOOG is down 51% and GOOGL is down 49% and 3 other stocks in the Magnificent Seven are down >50% then this question resolves positively.\n", "post_id": 26390, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744230.075207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744230.075207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.225 ], "centers": [ 0.33333333333333337 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6666666666666666, 0.33333333333333337 ], "means": [ 0.3325502285337891 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8102054573170248, 0.0, 0.11160910633783082, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16798662710965054, 0.38043555332875517, 1.0786971606156608, 1.0, 0.0, 0.21748143718422047, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.21048406939484643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9778163735392204, 0.0, 0.428724223473282, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 1.2032879714864246, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 41.50374992788437, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 41.50374992788437 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744230.102662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744230.102662, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8190902050642055, 0.18090979493579448 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 68, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "US mega-cap stocks Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet (parent of Google), Amazon, Nvidia, Meta Platforms (Facebook), and Tesla are collectively known as [the Magnificent Seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnificent_Seven_(stocks)). 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Will it happen?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.", "fine_print": "The type of medal does not matter, nor does it whether the doubles medal is in the athlete's own gender only or mixed.", "post_id": 26388, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744135.576817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744135.576817, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.43333333333333335 ], "centers": [ 0.525 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.69 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.475, 0.525 ], "means": [ 0.5439201189285379 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0541425161069094, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.088218564506665, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.772333620614413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6980965657768824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0998503536880166, 0.07560105912010007, 0.1349426696819013, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.5865666265670905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8379487954001852, 0.04510278262054179, 0.0, 0.38723206162456447, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 1.2897926863638505, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47494197203925326, 0.06427640630688772, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17472138726266326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3003860087132948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -7.400058144377692, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -7.400058144377692 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744135.598623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744135.598623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4867153513207655, 0.5132846486792345 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 65, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Tennis at the Olympics has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?" }, { "id": 26387, "title": "Will Tesla increase its deliveries in Q3 2024 compared with Q2 2024? 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", "created_at": "2024-07-19T20:41:36.694032Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-23T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if Tesla reports greater than 443,956 vehicles delivered for the third quarter of 2024. If it reports deliveries of 443,956 vehicles or fewer, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Resolves based on reporting from Tesla's Investor Relations site. Generally Tesla reports deliveries two days after the quarter's end, which means the report is expected October 2, 2024. If Tesla does not report these numbers before October 16, 2024, this question will be annulled.", "post_id": 26387, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744179.949659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744179.949659, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.5913726362686632 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8055617015887526, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3058323220141224, 0.0, 1.1824933340774735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19073805166550978, 1.243116734434214, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7404338494245358, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.23009507213413613, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 1.2979400467307407, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6446318192424039, 0.6308407491715394, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721744179.970189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721744179.970189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4710196808089947, 0.5289803191910053 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 61, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In Q2 2024, Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles. Since the beginning of 2023, Tesla's deliveries were as follows: 422,875 in Q1 2023, 466,140 in Q2 2023, 435,059 in Q3 2023, 484,507 in Q4 2023, 386,810 in Q1 2024, and 443,956 in Q2 2024." }, { "id": 26363, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a ‘long reflection’ be underway?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, long reflection underway?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, long reflection underway?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-long-reflection-underway", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T17:53:12.747250Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T22:54:14.858626Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", 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"default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26363, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a ‘long reflection’ be underway?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T17:53:12.747250Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Some effective altruists, including [Toby Ord](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/toby-ord) and [William MacAskill](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/william-macaskill), have argued that, if humanity succeeds in eliminating [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-risk?tab=wiki) or reducing it to acceptable levels, it should not immediately embark on an ambitious and potentially irreversible project of arranging the [universe's resources](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/universe-s-resources) in accordance to its values, but ought instead to spend considerable time— \"centuries (or more)\"; \"perhaps tens of thousands of years\"; \"thousands or millions of years\"; \"[p]erhaps... a million years\"—figuring out what is in fact of value. The long reflection may thus be seen as an intermediate stage in a rational long-term human developmental trajectory, following an initial stage of [existential security](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-security) when existential risk is drastically reduced and followed by a final stage when humanity's potential is fully realized.<br/>\n> [—EA Forum Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/long-reflection)\n\nNote that more recent thinking suggests a long reflection aided by advanced AI could happen much faster than the timeframes cited above:\n\n> Original discussion of the long reflection indicated that it could be a lengthy process of 10,000 years or more. More recent discussion [...] i) takes seriously the possibility that the long reflection could last just weeks rather than years or millenia, and ii) notes that wall clock time is probably not the most useful way to think about the length of the reflection, given that the reflection process, if it happens at all, will likely involve [many](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-collectives) [superfast](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/speed-superintelligence) AIs doing the bulk of the cognitive labor.<br/>\n> [—Aldred, 2024, fn. 4](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list)\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26268/5y-after-agi-ai-philosophical-competence/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "Operationalizing a long reflection being in progress is tricky, not least because nobody is sure what a long reflection might even [concretely look like](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#Institutional_design_for_the_long_reflection).\n\nTherefore, this question will be resolved by a [judging panel](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil). This question resolves as **Yes** if, within 5 years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, majority vote amongst a judging panel of long reflection experts (to the extent that anyone is an expert in this domain), assembled in good faith by Metaculus, indicates that a long reflection is underway.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nA judging panel will be assembled upon [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that a long reflection might be underway (and assembled again if a panel previously voted “no,” but new relevant developments have taken place), where the [Effective Altruism Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/) counts as a credible source.", "fine_print": "We will use the following definition, from the [EA Forum](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/long-reflection): \n\n> The long reflection is a hypothesized period of time during which humanity works out how best to realize its long-term potential.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26363, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761951244.24021, "end_time": 1768844640.257761, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761951244.24021, "end_time": 1768844640.257761, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.12494555801353073 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.004602557171952, 0.12482426382496842, 1.2125436888899765, 0.5886555036784198, 0.8771863317532924, 1.6404152077907992, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7938622400517672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288678.560839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288678.560839, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9885322530001661, 0.0114677469998339 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 56, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Some effective altruists, including [Toby Ord](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/toby-ord) and [William MacAskill](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/william-macaskill), have argued that, if humanity succeeds in eliminating [existential risk](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-risk?tab=wiki) or reducing it to acceptable levels, it should not immediately embark on an ambitious and potentially irreversible project of arranging the [universe's resources](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/universe-s-resources) in accordance to its values, but ought instead to spend considerable time— \"centuries (or more)\"; \"perhaps tens of thousands of years\"; \"thousands or millions of years\"; \"[p]erhaps... a million years\"—figuring out what is in fact of value. The long reflection may thus be seen as an intermediate stage in a rational long-term human developmental trajectory, following an initial stage of [existential security](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/existential-security) when existential risk is drastically reduced and followed by a final stage when humanity's potential is fully realized.<br/>\n> [—EA Forum Wiki](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/long-reflection)\n\nNote that more recent thinking suggests a long reflection aided by advanced AI could happen much faster than the timeframes cited above:\n\n> Original discussion of the long reflection indicated that it could be a lengthy process of 10,000 years or more. More recent discussion [...] i) takes seriously the possibility that the long reflection could last just weeks rather than years or millenia, and ii) notes that wall clock time is probably not the most useful way to think about the length of the reflection, given that the reflection process, if it happens at all, will likely involve [many](https://www.alignmentforum.org/posts/HekjhtWesBWTQW5eF/agis-as-collectives) [superfast](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/topics/speed-superintelligence) AIs doing the bulk of the cognitive labor.<br/>\n> [—Aldred, 2024, fn. 4](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list)\n\n(Related question: “[Five years after AGI, will AI philosophical competence be solved?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26268/5y-after-agi-ai-philosophical-competence/)”)" }, { "id": 26361, "title": "Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, quantum gravity solved?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, quantum gravity solved?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-quantum-gravity-solved", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:38:56.436897Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-31T22:51:42.064579Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26361, "title": "Five years after AGI, will quantum gravity be solved?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:38:56.436897Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_gravity):\n> Quantum gravity is a field of theoretical physics that seeks to describe gravity according to the principles of quantum mechanics. It deals with environments in which neither gravitational nor quantum effects can be ignored, such as in the vicinity of black holes or similar compact astrophysical objects, such as neutron stars, as well as in the early stages of the universe moments after the Big Bang.\n> \n> Three of the four fundamental forces of nature are described within the framework of quantum mechanics and quantum field theory: the electromagnetic interaction, the strong force, and the weak force; this leaves gravity as the only interaction that has not been fully accommodated. The current understanding of gravity is based on Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which incorporates his theory of special relativity and deeply modifies the understanding of concepts like time and space. Although general relativity is highly regarded for its elegance and accuracy, it has limitations: the gravitational singularities inside black holes, the ad hoc postulation of dark matter, as well as dark energy and its relation to the cosmological constant are among the current unsolved mysteries regarding gravity, all of which signal the collapse of the general theory of relativity at different scales and highlight the need for a gravitational theory that goes into the quantum realm. At distances close to the Planck length, like those near the center of the black hole, quantum fluctuations of spacetime are expected to play an important role. Finally, the discrepancies between the predicted value for the vacuum energy and the observed values (which, depending on considerations, can be of 60 or 120 orders of magnitude) highlight the necessity for a quantum theory of gravity.\n> \n> The field of quantum gravity is actively developing, and theorists are exploring a variety of approaches to the problem of quantum gravity, the most popular being M-theory and loop quantum gravity. All of these approaches aim to describe the quantum behavior of the gravitational field, which does not necessarily include unifying all fundamental interactions into a single mathematical framework. However, many approaches to quantum gravity, such as string theory, try to develop a framework that describes all fundamental forces. Such a theory is often referred to as a theory of everything. Some of the approaches, such as loop quantum gravity, make no such attempt; instead, they make an effort to quantize the gravitational field while it is kept separate from the other forces. Other lesser-known but no less important theories include Causal dynamical triangulation, Noncommutative geometry, and Twistor theory.\n> \n> One of the difficulties of formulating a quantum gravity theory is that direct observation of quantum gravitational effects is thought to only appear at length scales near the Planck scale, around 10−35 meters, a scale far smaller, and hence only accessible with far higher energies, than those currently available in high energy particle accelerators. Therefore, physicists lack experimental data which could distinguish between the competing theories which have been proposed.<br/>\n> …\n> \n> In the early 21st century, new experiment designs and technologies have arisen which suggest that indirect approaches to testing quantum gravity may be feasible over the next few decades. This field of study is called phenomenological quantum gravity.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, by the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, scientific consensus indicates that quantum gravity has been solved, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). In case “consensus” having been reached is disputed, theoretical physicist (and Metaculus co-founder!) [Anthony Aguirre](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Aguirre) will [provide a ruling](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil). If quantum gravity has not been solved in the five years following AGI’s arrival, this question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.", "fine_print": "If scientific consensus, at some point before resolution, indicates that trying to unify quantum physics with gravity was somehow a confused idea, then this question resolves as Yes if a physics breakthrough equivalent to solving quantum gravity has been made. (Anthony Aguirre will be the judge of what counts as an equivalent breakthrough.)\n___\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26361, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761951091.768424, "end_time": 1763322411.918068, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761951091.768424, "end_time": 1763322411.918068, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.14 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.86, 0.14 ], "means": [ 0.25458162341214446 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.12637014538023153, 1.3486736957233607, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 1.0386810676967242, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1936608536909636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.033872059528572265, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6795760587132514, 1.1933008645182623, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055351681451673844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289255.915329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289255.915329, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8760757584652386, 0.12392424153476148 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "From [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quantum_gravity):\n> Quantum gravity is a field of theoretical physics that seeks to describe gravity according to the principles of quantum mechanics. It deals with environments in which neither gravitational nor quantum effects can be ignored, such as in the vicinity of black holes or similar compact astrophysical objects, such as neutron stars, as well as in the early stages of the universe moments after the Big Bang.\n> \n> Three of the four fundamental forces of nature are described within the framework of quantum mechanics and quantum field theory: the electromagnetic interaction, the strong force, and the weak force; this leaves gravity as the only interaction that has not been fully accommodated. The current understanding of gravity is based on Albert Einstein's general theory of relativity, which incorporates his theory of special relativity and deeply modifies the understanding of concepts like time and space. Although general relativity is highly regarded for its elegance and accuracy, it has limitations: the gravitational singularities inside black holes, the ad hoc postulation of dark matter, as well as dark energy and its relation to the cosmological constant are among the current unsolved mysteries regarding gravity, all of which signal the collapse of the general theory of relativity at different scales and highlight the need for a gravitational theory that goes into the quantum realm. At distances close to the Planck length, like those near the center of the black hole, quantum fluctuations of spacetime are expected to play an important role. Finally, the discrepancies between the predicted value for the vacuum energy and the observed values (which, depending on considerations, can be of 60 or 120 orders of magnitude) highlight the necessity for a quantum theory of gravity.\n> \n> The field of quantum gravity is actively developing, and theorists are exploring a variety of approaches to the problem of quantum gravity, the most popular being M-theory and loop quantum gravity. All of these approaches aim to describe the quantum behavior of the gravitational field, which does not necessarily include unifying all fundamental interactions into a single mathematical framework. However, many approaches to quantum gravity, such as string theory, try to develop a framework that describes all fundamental forces. Such a theory is often referred to as a theory of everything. Some of the approaches, such as loop quantum gravity, make no such attempt; instead, they make an effort to quantize the gravitational field while it is kept separate from the other forces. Other lesser-known but no less important theories include Causal dynamical triangulation, Noncommutative geometry, and Twistor theory.\n> \n> One of the difficulties of formulating a quantum gravity theory is that direct observation of quantum gravitational effects is thought to only appear at length scales near the Planck scale, around 10−35 meters, a scale far smaller, and hence only accessible with far higher energies, than those currently available in high energy particle accelerators. Therefore, physicists lack experimental data which could distinguish between the competing theories which have been proposed.<br/>\n> …\n> \n> In the early 21st century, new experiment designs and technologies have arisen which suggest that indirect approaches to testing quantum gravity may be feasible over the next few decades. This field of study is called phenomenological quantum gravity." }, { "id": 26360, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, World War III?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, World War III?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-world-war-iii", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:02:53.685404Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T00:52:41.502427Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 0, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 60, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26360, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there have been a World War III?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T16:02:53.685404Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T17:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T17:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a “bargaining failure”). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [—Macé, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the “[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, at any time before the day 5 years after our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolves, both of these conditions are true:\n\n1) There is a military conflict involving countries representing, in totality, either at least 30% of world GDP (in PPP), or at least 50% of world population, in any year in which the conflict is ongoing. A country is said to be “involved” if it satisfies either of the following:\n\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has experienced at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat in the war (not including indirect deaths such as via famine).\n* Credible reports indicate that the country has directly caused at least 1,000 combined civilian or military deaths directly attributed to combat operations it has conducted as part of the war.\n\n2) At least 10 million people—civilians or military personnel—have been killed in the conflict.", "fine_print": "PPP will be determined from the following sources, in order of precedence:\n\n- IMF\n- World Bank\n- United Nations\n- CIA\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be **Annulled**.", "post_id": 26360, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762908751.059076, "end_time": 1763322709.05637, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762908751.059076, "end_time": 1763322709.05637, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.025 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.1340106620810038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.9473858263412321, 1.2634249171984495, 1.5382446800520038, 0.07458400192001807, 0.6094188848705788, 0.5439760803659085, 0.49680014682221674, 0.010606778452136844, 2.268284023520914, 0.6844047848430631, 0.2078730995363055, 0.0, 0.18575801079970408, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.2500054250947941, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.628446646693507, 0.04262448240449936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6326900287523809, 0.0, 0.5843051095475567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04171983066671895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3542447088992047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08861704666596604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07000249760431822, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29683892709897775, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2472970147271662 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289147.875806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289147.875806, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9687960938123886, 0.031203906187611374 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 88, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[World War I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_I) was a global war originating in Europe that lasted from 28 July 1914 to 11 November 1918. One of the deadliest conflicts in history, an estimated 9 million combatants and 7 million civilians died as a direct result of the war.\n\n[World War II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) was a global war that lasted from 1939 to 1945. A state of total war emerged, directly involving more than 100 million people from over 30 countries. World War II was the deadliest conflict in human history, marked by 50 to 85 million fatalities, most of whom were civilians in China or the Soviet Union. It included massacres, the genocide of the Holocaust, strategic bombing, premeditated death from starvation and disease, and the only historical use of nuclear weapons in war.\n\n[World War III](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III) is the name given to a hypothetical third worldwide military conflict. The name has been in use since at least as early as 1941. Some have applied it loosely to refer to limited or smaller conflicts such as the Cold War or the War on Terror, while others have operated under the assumption that such a conflict would surpass both prior world wars in both scope and destructiveness.\n\nAs of 2024, World War III has not happened. There have, however, been a number of [close calls](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III#Historical_close_calls) that are widely regarded as having been narrowly-missed, possible catalysts for such a conflict.\n\nMeanwhile, some experts have warned that AGI could bring military instability, for example, through nuclear deterrence [being undermined](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26286/5y-after-agi-nuclear-deterrence-undermined/), or through a [multipolar](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/) bargaining failure:\n\n> Early AGIs might fail to make compatible demands with each other in high-stakes negotiations (we call this a “bargaining failure”). Bargaining failures can have catastrophic consequences, including great power conflicts, or AI triggering a [flash war](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LpM3EAakwYdS6aRKf/what-multipolar-failure-looks-like-and-robust-agent-agnostic#Flash_wars). [—Macé, DiGiovanni and Clifton, 2024](https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/uGfDx9es2pnYWaWJr/individually-incentivized-safe-pareto-improvements-in-open#Introduction)\n\nIn 1949, after the unleashing of nuclear weaponry at the end of WWII, physicist Albert Einstein suggested that any outcome of a possible WWIII would be so dire as to revert mankind back to the Stone Age. When asked by journalist Alfred Werner what types of weapons Einstein believed World War III might be fought with, Einstein warned, “I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.”\n\n(H/T @Jgalt for writing the “[Will there be a \"World War Three\" before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2534/world-war-three-before-2050/)” question, from which this one was adapted.)" }, { "id": 26359, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, AI company dominates economy?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-ai-company-dominates-economy", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-19T13:44:56.641406Z", "published_at": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-19T01:03:56.304455Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 70, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26359, "title": "Five years after AGI, will a single AI company dominate the world economy?", "created_at": "2024-07-19T13:44:56.641406Z", "open_time": "2024-07-23T00:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T13:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T13:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Implicit in [the](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) [plans](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#What_do_the_leading_AI_companies_say_they_d_do_with_AGI_) of the leading AGI companies, so it [would seem](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mopsmd3JELJRyTTty/ozzie-gooen-s-shortform?commentId=eaZ5ogqDKbKoRyQux), is achieving economic domination. If a single company were to dominate the world’s economy, that company would presumably hold a huge amount of power—think [Incite](https://westworld.fandom.com/wiki/Incite_Inc.), *[Westworld](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westworld_(TV_series))* fans. This raises questions about the desirability of such a future.\n\nAs a point of reference, Apple, the world’s largest company at the time of writing (July 22, 2024), at a market cap of $3.4 trillion, is worth 3.1% of the world’s total market cap ([source](companiesmarketcap.com)).\n\n(Related questions: “[Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/)”; “[Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26522/5y-after-agi-ai-company-military-power/)”)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, more than 50% of world economic output can be attributed to a single AI company (or to the single most powerful AI system, if that system is somehow spread across multiple companies)^. The question resolves as **No** otherwise.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nEconomic output will be measured in a sense of “value added,” or contribution to GDP stemming from the AI company’s activities. For example, if one of their AI systems was being used as a tool in the production of a good or service, then only the portion of output that the AI produces or directed will be considered, aligned to the extent possible with typical measures of contribution to GDP.\n\nQuestion resolution will be determined according to estimates published by credible sources that meet the criteria described. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the original source is in doubt.\n\nIn the event of ambiguity surrounding the question, Metaculus will assemble a three-person [resolution committee](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#rescouncil). This committee will consist of one Metaculus staff member and two economics experts, selected in good faith by Metaculus. The committee's sole purpose will be to resolve the question at hand. The committee will only be convened if Metaculus admins determine that there is uncertainty regarding whether the question has met the criteria for a **Yes** resolution as previously outlined. Should the committee be convened, whether the question should be resolved and the resolution of the question will be based on the majority vote of these three individuals.", "fine_print": "^In the “or to the single most powerful AI system, if that system is somehow spread across multiple companies” case, the AI system or copies of such an AI system (including variants, offshoots, or future generations stemming from such an AI system) must be coordinating to produce economic output.\n___\n\nAn AI company that has been absorbed by government or which is effectively controlled by government does not count for Yes resolution. In case of ambiguity over whether the company in question is effectively controlled by government, Metaculus admins will make a ruling. As a guideline, things like forced production, a Manhattan-style project, or outright nationalization will count as “the company is effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company does not count for Yes resolution),” while things like government shareownership or subsidization will count as “the company is not effectively controlled by government (i.e., the company counts for Yes resolution).”\n___\n\nNote: This question was written to be about “value added” economic output rather than market cap because: i) the former strikes us as a slightly better measure for tracking what we want to track, and ii) leading AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are private companies (and so do not have market caps), and it’s unclear if they will ever go public.\n___\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26359, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1762724145.563329, "end_time": 1765099395.032, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1762724145.563329, "end_time": 1765099395.032, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.13813066613077768 ], "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287155.500207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287155.500207, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9801181795245638, 0.019881820475436143 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 99, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Implicit in [the](https://openai.com/index/planning-for-agi-and-beyond/) [plans](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/4xwWDLfMenw48TR8c/long-reflection-reading-list#What_do_the_leading_AI_companies_say_they_d_do_with_AGI_) of the leading AGI companies, so it [would seem](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/mopsmd3JELJRyTTty/ozzie-gooen-s-shortform?commentId=eaZ5ogqDKbKoRyQux), is achieving economic domination. If a single company were to dominate the world’s economy, that company would presumably hold a huge amount of power—think [Incite](https://westworld.fandom.com/wiki/Incite_Inc.), *[Westworld](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Westworld_(TV_series))* fans. This raises questions about the desirability of such a future.\n\nAs a point of reference, Apple, the world’s largest company at the time of writing (July 22, 2024), at a market cap of $3.4 trillion, is worth 3.1% of the world’s total market cap ([source](companiesmarketcap.com)).\n\n(Related questions: “[Will transformative AI result in a singleton (as opposed to a multipolar world)?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18042/ai-singleton-or-multipolar/)”; “[Five years after AGI, will an AI company be a military power?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/26522/5y-after-agi-ai-company-military-power/)”)" }, { "id": 26336, "title": "Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?", "short_title": "J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?", "url_title": "J.D. Vance POTUS before January 20, 2029?", "slug": "jd-vance-potus-before-january-20-2029", "author_id": 101465, "author_username": "Jgalt", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:52:37.442224Z", "published_at": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T01:33:50.774632Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 311, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26336, "title": "Will J.D. Vance become President of the United States before January 20, 2029?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:52:37.442224Z", "open_time": "2024-07-21T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-01-20T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-19T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n\nIf elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n\nPrior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **yes** if prior to 00:00 Eastern Time on January 20, 2029, J.D. Vance legally holds the office of President of the United States for any amount of time, for any reason (e.g. election to the presidency, or lawful succession to the presidency). The question will resolve as **no** if that does not occur.\n\nServing as [Acting President of the United States](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acting_President_of_the_United_States?useskin=vector) **does not** count for a yes resolution to this question.\n\nIf the Republican Party nominee does not win the 2024 US presidential election, this question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26336, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763256820.583152, "end_time": 1763623662.755282, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763256820.583152, "end_time": 1763623662.755282, "forecaster_count": 77, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.24 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.76, 0.24 ], "means": [ 0.2699552036101931 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.842314796684764, 0.002588094671413076, 0.01511014823377393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32640742735429495, 0.0, 0.07751822796007787, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8871057373578188, 0.09330886589633765, 0.049402796743717066, 0.0004201224307447123, 0.22008177910091672, 1.2972432460406438, 0.1952379986272593, 0.8467098584002948, 0.0482962316587873, 0.027908835249252868, 0.8615954084091842, 0.49665428644405885, 0.1969067764357276, 0.0, 0.9444368072528766, 1.3817218447983493, 0.0, 1.0071322106868348, 0.0, 0.0, 0.513013448772581, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2052642827382707, 0.0, 0.1458448168481206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8916243659088019, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.002614879500489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0021782944378976117, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031043082091917864, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0046182125079597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46850546219757877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287917.176577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287917.176577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9286349499059083, 0.07136505009409165 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 701, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[James David Vance](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._D._Vance?useskin=vector), commonly known as J.D. Vance, born August 2, 1984, is an American politician of the Republican Party serving as the junior United States senator from Ohio since 2023, and was adopted as the [Republican nominee for Vice President of the United States](https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/15/politics/trump-vp-pick-jd-vance/index.html) on July 15, 2024 after being selected as former President Donald J. Trump's running mate in his bid for a non-consecutive second term in the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which Trump may face a rematch against the Democratic Party ticket of President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris.\n\nIf elected vice president and sworn into office, Vance would be the youngest person (at 40 years old) to hold that office since Richard Nixon in 1953 (also 40).\n\nPrior to entering politics, Vance had been a United States Marine, a corporate lawyer, a venture capitalist closely associated with the billionaire [Peter Thiel](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_Thiel?useskin=vector), and a best-selling author." }, { "id": 26335, "title": "Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term?", "short_title": "England to build 1.5M homes this parliament?", "url_title": "England to build 1.5M homes this parliament?", "slug": "england-to-build-15m-homes-this-parliament", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:27:14.129479Z", "published_at": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-04T17:13:43.043124Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-29T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26335, "title": "Will England build at least 1.5 million new homes over the current parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T22:27:14.129479Z", "open_time": "2024-07-21T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-24T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-24T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-31T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-29T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-10-29T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament\" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nHousing policy in the UK (which includes house building) is a [devolved matter](https://fullfact.org/economy/house-building-levels-PMQs/) in the UK, meaning the national governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland set their own policies separately from the government in Westminster. The Labour manifesto for 2024 has the sentence \"Labour will get Britain \nbuilding again, creating jobs across England, with 1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament.\", which suggests the 1.5 million goal is for England only.\n\nFor more information please see: [The new Labour government plans to build 1.5 million homes – here’s what’s needed to make it happen](https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/the-new-labour-government-plans-to-build-15-million-homes--heres-whats-needed-to-make-it-happen/)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if 1.5 million new homes are completed in England (not the United Kingdom as a whole) according to Office for National Statistics (ONS) data within the parliamentary term resulting from the general election of July 4, 2024. The latest the next general election can be held is August 15, 2029.\n\nOtherwise the question will resolve as **No** unless the question is **annulled** due to lack of data.\n\nThe page for the ONS data required to resolve the question is found [here](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted). Data seems to be published quarterly, perhaps around 4 months after the end of each quarter. \n\nThe correct table for the purposes of this question is \"Table 1b - House building: permanent dwellings started and completed, by sector, England, quarterly\", and the correct column \"Completed - All Dwellings\".\n\nThe first quarter wholly within this parliamentary term will be \"Oct - Dec 2024\", and the last possible will be \"Apr - Jun 2029\", with expected publication date around the 30th October 2029.", "fine_print": "In the event the resolution source ceases to exist or significantly changes, Admins may **annul** the question or name an alternative resolution source. In particular, if an independent government body gives data at a finer scale than this (for example, monthly rather than quarterly reports) or publishes a report that shows that the goal has been achieved, this should be considered an acceptable source.", "post_id": 26335, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763256993.049581, "end_time": 1773725401.936537, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763256993.049581, "end_time": 1773725401.936537, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06107197840078652 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 1.0289337933218743, 0.49027544292935926, 0.3960520319014228, 1.8502051036716036, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5965892957781368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41336531919859754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287282.955326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287282.955326, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9146804649334273, 0.08531953506657276 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 26, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament\" in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=36) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nHousing policy in the UK (which includes house building) is a [devolved matter](https://fullfact.org/economy/house-building-levels-PMQs/) in the UK, meaning the national governments of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland set their own policies separately from the government in Westminster. The Labour manifesto for 2024 has the sentence \"Labour will get Britain \nbuilding again, creating jobs across England, with 1.5 million new homes \nover the next parliament.\", which suggests the 1.5 million goal is for England only.\n\nFor more information please see: [The new Labour government plans to build 1.5 million homes – here’s what’s needed to make it happen](https://www.manchester.ac.uk/discover/news/the-new-labour-government-plans-to-build-15-million-homes--heres-whats-needed-to-make-it-happen/)" }, { "id": 26328, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?", "short_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2026?", "url_title": "Human Transmission of H5N1 Before 2026?", "slug": "human-transmission-of-h5n1-before-2026", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:31:41.132975Z", "published_at": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T03:29:35.167310Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 36, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 182, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "community": [ { "id": 32637, "name": "Bright Line Watch", "type": "community", "slug": "brightlinewatch", "description": "[Bright Line Watch](https://brightlinewatch.org/ \"Bright Line Watch\") is a nonpartisan watchdog that has monitored the status of American democracy since 2017. Through 23 waves (and counting) of paired surveys of political scientists and the public, Bright Line Watch tracks changes in democratic norms, legitimacy, and confidence in U.S. elections. The organization measures long-term trends, such as belief in the legitimacy of the 2020 election and confidence in the 2024 election, while also fielding timely survey modules on topics like trust in democratic institutions, proposed policy reforms, and the role of courts and prosecutors.\r\n\r\n***\r\n\r\n#### **Prize Pool — \\$2,500**\r\n\r\n*This Community Tournament is a mix of existing Metaculus questions and questions created by Bright Line Watch. **To be eligible for the \\$2,500 prize pool and leaderboard medals, you must forecast on at least 22 of the 25 questions in this tournament.*** ", "order": 1, "header_image": null, "header_logo": null, "followers_count": 50, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "created_by": { "id": 238856, "username": "JohnCarey", "is_bot": false, "is_staff": false, "metadata": null } } ], "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15863, "name": "H5N1 Bird Flu", "slug": "h5n1", "emoji": "🐦🦠", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T03:29:36.402172Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3411, "type": "tournament", "name": "Respiratory Outlook 2024/25", "slug": "respiratory-outlook-24-25", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/cdc-cover-final_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-17T12:00:17Z", "close_date": "2026-07-02T04:00:17Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T21:06:16.845281Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T03:29:36.402172Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26328, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:31:41.132975Z", "open_time": "2024-07-17T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-25T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-25T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\nIn its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), CDC says the following, as of July 17, 2024:\n\n>* H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.\n>* While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n>* CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.\n\nAdditionally, as of July 17, 2024, the page reports nine total human cases in the United States since 2022, with five of the nine having been confirmed as H5N1. The page also currently reports that there has been no person-to-person spread and that the current public health risk is \"low\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after July 17, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 26328, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763263764.695784, "end_time": 1763696806.412, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763263764.695784, "end_time": 1763696806.412, "forecaster_count": 74, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.005 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03415371360939715 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.8904132498292885, 5.107939637845152, 3.3696328862675027, 0.07983755046373407, 0.5495170773808055, 0.2612654262937469, 0.5478713678118143, 0.02464094517995897, 0.006759718771926677, 0.0, 0.5285951551513692, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028133116086424746, 0.0031076199278334622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0013572084933998819, 0.0, 0.0050634840930635725, 0.050684542915282016, 0.0010381920838562959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0043392766864219865, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2495264567639011 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287064.453511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287064.453511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9462216252916431, 0.05377837470835693 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 917, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\nIn its [H5 Bird Flu: Current Situation page](https://www.cdc.gov/bird-flu/situation-summary/index.html), CDC says the following, as of July 17, 2024:\n\n>* H5 bird flu is widespread in wild birds worldwide and is causing outbreaks in poultry and U.S. dairy cows with several recent human cases in U.S. dairy and poultry workers.\n>* While the current public health risk is low, CDC is watching the situation carefully and working with states to monitor people with animal exposures.\n>* CDC is using its flu surveillance systems to monitor for H5 bird flu activity in people.\n\nAdditionally, as of July 17, 2024, the page reports nine total human cases in the United States since 2022, with five of the nine having been confirmed as H5N1. The page also currently reports that there has been no person-to-person spread and that the current public health risk is \"low\"." }, { "id": 26326, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?", "short_title": "5Y after AGI, universal basic income?", "url_title": "5Y after AGI, universal basic income?", "slug": "5y-after-agi-universal-basic-income", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:14:51.303886Z", "published_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:14.724514Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 81, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" }, { "id": 15881, "name": "5 Years After AGI", "slug": "5-years-after", "emoji": "⏳🌀", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3410, "type": "question_series", "name": "Five Years After AGI", "slug": "5_years_after_AGI", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-5y-agi-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-22T11:00:08Z", "close_date": "2036-01-02T12:00:08Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-15T19:59:08.707934Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-12T07:21:15.358970Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26326, "title": "Five years after AGI, will there be universal basic income?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:14:51.303886Z", "open_time": "2024-07-22T17:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-23T18:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2036-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2036-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> [—The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, within five years of our “[When will artificial general intelligence (AGI) arrive?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/5121/date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/)” question resolving, a universal basic income (UBI) of at least USD $1,000 per month is being distributed in the entirety of at least two of the three following countries: the US, the UK, China.\n\nThis question is conditional on humans not having gone extinct.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, “being distributed” means that not only has UBI been enacted—i.e., signed into law—in the relevant countries, but that UBI payments are being made, according to [credible reporting](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions). (If there is ambiguity over whether UBI payments are being made, Metaculus admins will make a ruling.)\n\nThe method of enactment is irrelevant so long as it applies to the entirety of the given country. There may be eligibility criteria or exceptions, such as excluding those who already have high incomes. It will be considered to apply to the entirety of the country if nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive 1,000 US dollars per month with no additional requirements (such as work requirements) and no expiration of the benefits.\n\nFor Yes resolution, the two countries must be simultaneously making UBI payments. In other words, if the US, say, starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after AGI, but then stops the following year, and China starts distributing UBI to its citizens the year after that, then this does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nThe $1,000 per month UBI specified will not be adjusted for inflation, only converted to USD at the time of enactment.", "fine_print": "To ensure clear resolution to this question, when we say “nearly every individual aged 21 and over with an income below 1,000 US dollars per month is able to receive” UBI payments, this will be considered implemented if Metaculus admins can find no reasonable evidence to suggest that more than 20% of individuals in this group are failing to receive the specified UBI payments.\n\nIf AGI results in human extinction (in the full sense of there not being any humans in existence) then this question will be **Annulled**. In other words, for this question we would like forecasters to condition on extinction not happening. (Note, though, that we do not want forecasters to condition on other types of existential catastrophe, like dystopia, not happening.)\n\nIf our “When will AGI arrive?” question resolves as \"Not ≤ Dec 25, 2199,\" this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 26326, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763190077.212553, "end_time": 1763305189.779678, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763190077.212553, "end_time": 1763305189.779678, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.22 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.51 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.78, 0.22 ], "means": [ 0.3261726894494835 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6443192406330062, 0.013291901200468375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.73243180429057, 0.9573906269149788, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.0, 0.038142496490550196, 0.8467518418601444, 0.0, 0.1073881054056872, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6859673414553251, 0.011600507024289436, 0.0, 0.08253825588130179, 0.0, 1.2565570713527168, 0.0, 0.9396406647936779, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05311320301687321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0542361790294739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008689560138641658, 0.0, 0.8629325244072313, 0.007446731347793363, 0.0, 0.05692018101548274, 0.0, 1.4574224764451431, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012965554486791008, 0.12716653551049145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39818867837781474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02049033616423628, 0.8284076835897499, 0.5241070816719129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5604905061740477, 0.06514355803612427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09850035746144059, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03471101136516521, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06261470488347545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23954639433616837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.777238463870146, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286958.40359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286958.40359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8754352002480619, 0.12456479975193818 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "> Universal basic income (UBI) is a social welfare proposal in which all citizens of a given population regularly receive a minimum income in the form of an unconditional transfer payment, i.e., without a means test or need to work.\n> [—Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Universal_basic_income)\n> ___\n> The idea of a guaranteed income for all has been floating around for centuries, its popularity ebbing and flowing with the passing tide of current events. While it is still considered by many to be a radical concept, proponents of a universal basic income (UBI) no longer see it only as a solution to poverty but as the answer to some of the biggest threats faced by modern workers: wage inequality, job insecurity – and the looming possibility of AI-induced job losses.\n> \n> Elon Musk, at the recent Bletchley Park summit, said he believed “no job is needed” due to the development of AI, and that a job can be for “personal satisfaction”. Economist and political theorist Karl Widerquist, professor of philosophy at Georgetown University-Qatar, sees it differently.\n> \n> “Even if AI takes your job away, you don’t necessarily just become unemployed for the rest of your life,” he says. “What happens is you go down in the labour market, you start crowding the lower-income professions.”\n> \n> Widerquist believes, at least in the short term, that the growth of AI will push white-collar workers into the gig economy, and into other forms of poorly paid, insecure work. Such a shift in the workforce would, he fears, drive down wages and conditions, while increasing inequality.\n> \n> Why not give people who have good alternatives the opportunity to reduce work, or not work at all?\nLoek Groot, economist\nA UBI policy in response to AI and automation would address the failure of employers to distribute the spoils of economic growth – propelled, at least in part, by automation – fairly among workers, says Widerquist.\n> \n> Some go further still, pointing to UBI as a dividend due to workers for their role in the development and dissemination of knowledge used to train AI models such as ChatGPT. “Why,” asks Scott Santens, editor of website Basic Income Today, “should only one or two companies get rich off of the capital, the human work, that we all created?”\n> [—The Guardian, 2023](https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2023/nov/16/ai-is-coming-for-our-jobs-could-universal-basic-income-be-the-solution)" }, { "id": 26307, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-us-unemployment-rate-be-above-41-in-august-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:01:00.189686Z", "published_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.468997Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26307, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4.1% in August 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:01:00.189686Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-06T12:42:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for August 2024 is greater than 4.1%. Otherwise it resolves as **No**. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "This number is [scheduled](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) to be released on September 6, 2024, at 8:30 AM Eastern.", "post_id": 26307, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485327.142142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485327.142142, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.5175039185598749 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.2858940839005345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7988273762811899, 0.059105746561956225, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46866138545748215, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7010144968986024, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421403, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21460393617457274, 0.7620908974955233, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.09630553750946041, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8355804261814468, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.7978769816807084, 0.0, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040463113133740285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 21.412480535284736, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 21.412480535284736 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721485327.177354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721485327.177354, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7069929991073205, 0.29300700089267956 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 55, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 26306, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-500th-richest-person-on-bloombergs-billionaires-index-have-6-billion-or-more-on-monday-september-16-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:00:59.952096Z", "published_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.469552Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 53, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26306, "title": "Will the 500th richest person on Bloomberg's Billionaires Index have $6 billion or more on Monday September 16, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-17T15:00:59.952096Z", "open_time": "2024-07-19T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-16T21:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-20T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the person ranked 500th on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (available at [this link](https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/)) has a net worth of $6.00B or greater when accessed by Metaculus Admins on September 16, 2024, after 5:00 PM Eastern Time (i.e., over an hour after the US stock market closes for regular trading). \n", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question, the 500th-ranked or 500th-richest person on the list is considered to be the poorest person on the list. Therefore if the list contains fewer than 500 people on September 16, 2024, it will resolve based on the poorest person on the list. If the list contains more than 500 people, it will resolve based on the 500th-ranked person. \n\nIf Bloomberg's Billionaires Index is unavailable on September 16, 2024, resolution will wait until it is available (at which point it resolves based on the data shown), until September 23, 2024, at which point this question will be annulled. For more details on various edge cases regarding availability of or changes to the resolution source, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled). \n\nAdmins resolving this question will not round up. Specifically, if the 500th ranked is under $10B then the ones digit in the billions place must be 6 or greater (for example., $6.0000B would count, but $5.9999B would not).\n", "post_id": 26306, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721484961.290285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721484961.290285, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.85 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.6472348002261121 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1493205290095774, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02581358824615143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21572547604369705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27308960725456716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03268672417676853, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09956885969569651, 0.422729524609672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6939525952509218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6173038485604239, 0.0, 0.7117781198916961, 0.4767410908382156, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2758801039111001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9147633448549574, 0.0, 0.0, 1.505546685590327, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.019746017729336655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721484961.318234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721484961.318234, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5145822726075897, 0.48541772739241024 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 52, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to Bloomberg:\n\n>The Bloomberg Billionaires Index is a daily ranking of the world’s richest people. Details about the calculations are provided in the net worth analysis on each billionaire’s profile page. The figures are updated at the close of every trading day in New York.\n" } ] }
