Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2820
{ "count": 5968, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2840", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2800", "results": [ { "id": 21049, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?", "short_title": "2024 Wellingborough by-election winner", "url_title": "2024 Wellingborough by-election winner", "slug": "2024-wellingborough-by-election-winner", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:22:05.549618Z", "published_at": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.181521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 10, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21049, "title": "Will the UK Conservative and Unionist Part retain their parliamentary seat in the 2024 Wellingborough by-election ?", "created_at": "2024-01-12T15:22:05.549618Z", "open_time": "2024-01-13T16:13:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-16T16:13:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-16T16:13:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-16T15:19:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-15T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Wellingborough_by-election)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report that the candidate representing the Conservative Party has won the [by-election in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-67759402), currently scheduled for Thursday 15 February 2024. In the case of uncertainty or disputed reporting, an official UK parliamentary or governmental statement of the result will be used to settle the resolution.", "fine_print": "If no by-election is held by the end of February 2024, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21049, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708025876.726984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708025876.726984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.23087353680548345 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17411067864873367, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7161608149020564, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49027544292935926, 0.0, 0.8502051036716037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8358439363280007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31277297841981777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11506274851461015, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3960520319014228, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.211151533516322, "coverage": 0.998929019998152, "baseline_score": 38.803036259955675, "spot_peer_score": 6.643537616678458, "peer_archived_score": 3.211151533516322, "baseline_archived_score": 38.803036259955675, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.643537616678458 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708025876.761196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708025876.761196, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9335361870136022, 0.0664638129863978 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A by-election will take place on Thursday 15 February 2024 in the UK Parliament constituency of Wellingborough following a recall petition held in late 2023 that removed the incumbent MP Peter Bone under the terms of the Recall of MPs Act 2015, triggered by his six-week suspension from the House of Commons. [Full information can be found on the by-election wikipedia page](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Wellingborough_by-election)" }, { "id": 21005, "title": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "short_title": "Nikki Haley 2nd in the Iowa Caucuses?", "url_title": "Nikki Haley 2nd in the Iowa Caucuses?", "slug": "nikki-haley-2nd-in-the-iowa-caucuses", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-10T15:59:56.144889Z", "published_at": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.686567Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 119, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 21005, "title": "Will Nikki Haley finish 2nd in the 2024 Iowa Republican presidential caucuses?", "created_at": "2024-01-10T15:59:56.144889Z", "open_time": "2024-01-10T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-11T09:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-11T09:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-16T17:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-15T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395716-haley-looks-to-defy-expectations-in-iowa/).\n\n> Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary. \n\nPolling shows [Trump leading in Iowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses#Polling), with a tight race for second between Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve **Yes** if Nikki Haley wins the second-most [bound delegates](https://apnews.com/article/how-iowa-caucus-works-2024-democrats-republicans-592ab40b9b9b948c0540f2cf132bab5c) in the 2024 Iowa Republican caucuses, according to credible reports.", "fine_print": "In the event Haley ties for the second-most bound delegates, the question resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 21005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705344772.8514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705344772.8514, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 119, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6675806632602549 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7220168009275107, 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null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 270, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [The Hill](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4395716-haley-looks-to-defy-expectations-in-iowa/).\n\n> Nikki Haley is looking to outperform expectations in the Iowa caucuses next week in hopes of solidifying her status as the top challenger to former President Trump in the Republican presidential primary. \n\nPolling shows [Trump leading in Iowa](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Iowa_Republican_presidential_caucuses#Polling), with a tight race for second between Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis." }, { "id": 21003, "title": "Will the US Federal Communications Commission (FCC) fine a second company for violating its anti-space debris rule before 2025?", "short_title": "2nd Anti Space Debris Fine before 2025?", "url_title": 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"start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": 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false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, the FCC implemented a rule [mandating satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years after their missions](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/02/fcc-space-debris-fine-dish-network-satellite#:~:text=It%20says%20that%20the%20more,five%20years%20of%20mission%20completion.).\n\nIn 2002, DISH launched a satellite agreeing to move it to a \"graveyard orbit\" post-mission in 2012 to prevent risks. However, in 2022, due to low propellant, the satellite was positioned only 76 miles above the active geostationary orbit, missing its target by 178 km.\n\nIn October 2023, the FCC settled an investigation into DISH for \"[failure to properly deorbit its EchoStar-7 satellite,](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-397412A1.pdf)\" the first fine of this sort issued by the FCC.\n\n[9,600 satellites](https://sdup.esoc.esa.int/discosweb/statistics/) have been launched into space since the 1950s, and 6,800 are still functioning.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the FCC announces a second space debris enforcement action and this action includes a fine, penalty, or other sort of fee.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 21003, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735689985.814926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735689985.814926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.045458872321052606 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.14981230697245, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5732928815018028, 0.4177035342880956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2408710373554238, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2931027540164327, 0.31212449948102455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21019456889105456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08554011910162085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 48.063446701016396, "peer_score": 3.3840921706280005, "coverage": 0.9966860360164431, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9966860360164431, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -32.19280948873623, "baseline_archived_score": 48.063446701016396, "peer_archived_score": 3.3840921706280005, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -32.19280948873623 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287547.068528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287547.068528, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9404383057722961, 0.059561694227703854 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, the FCC implemented a rule [mandating satellite operators to dispose of satellites within five years after their missions](https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/oct/02/fcc-space-debris-fine-dish-network-satellite#:~:text=It%20says%20that%20the%20more,five%20years%20of%20mission%20completion.).\n\nIn 2002, DISH launched a satellite agreeing to move it to a \"graveyard orbit\" post-mission in 2012 to prevent risks. However, in 2022, due to low propellant, the satellite was positioned only 76 miles above the active geostationary orbit, missing its target by 178 km.\n\nIn October 2023, the FCC settled an investigation into DISH for \"[failure to properly deorbit its EchoStar-7 satellite,](https://docs.fcc.gov/public/attachments/DOC-397412A1.pdf)\" the first fine of this sort issued by the FCC.\n\n[9,600 satellites](https://sdup.esoc.esa.int/discosweb/statistics/) have been launched into space since the 1950s, and 6,800 are still functioning." }, { "id": 21000, "title": "Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?", "short_title": "Increase in Biden Approval Among Youth?", "url_title": "Increase in Biden Approval Among Youth?", "slug": "increase-in-biden-approval-among-youth", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-10T11:28:39.390209Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.148757Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 23, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 21000, "title": "Will Biden's approval rating with Americans aged 18 - 29 increase by the spring of 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-10T11:28:39.390209Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T19:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T19:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T19:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-04-18T15:17:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-04-01T23:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll that was recently published. The [Harvard Crimson cited concerns](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/6/iop-youth-poll-fall-23/) such as climate change, gun control, the war in Ukraine, and the current conflict in Gaza as reasons for decreased support among young voters.\n\nA sufficient decline in turnout by young voters for Biden in 2024 could determine whether or not he wins battleground states in his bid for reelection.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if the Spring 2024 [Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll](https://iop.harvard.edu/youth-poll/46th-edition-fall-2023) shows that Biden's approval rating among 18-to-29-year-olds is higher than the 35% reported in Fall 2023.", "fine_print": "If no poll is conducted in Spring 2024, or if a Biden approval rating is not reported, the question is annulled.", "post_id": 21000, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712009648.974747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712009648.974747, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.37 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.5257548185620664 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1659893709142453, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02246421852694655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04671076085250769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26402013543029734, 1.0, 0.0, 0.19523450305981643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7234704561894825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5762984429861834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5751117920109702, 1.2137915895011253, 0.0, 0.09571868246274486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.5103156119575218, 0.0, 0.8999502783252032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.646014984419943, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21714232244242104, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1164748146920504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8079494144037086, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 2.672390435075013, "coverage": 0.9940290080647545, "baseline_score": -4.8003434456461385, "spot_peer_score": 39.569851992811685, "peer_archived_score": 2.672390435075013, "baseline_archived_score": -4.8003434456461385, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.569851992811685 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1712009649.021065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1712009649.021065, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6299021356220653, 0.3700978643779347 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Harvard Institute of Politics](https://iop.harvard.edu/) conducts political polls in the spring and fall of every year. Biden's approval rating with youth aged 18-to-29 has been as high as 59% in the Spring 2021 poll, and has steadily declined in each subsequent poll, reaching a low of 35% in the Fall 2023 poll that was recently published. The [Harvard Crimson cited concerns](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/6/iop-youth-poll-fall-23/) such as climate change, gun control, the war in Ukraine, and the current conflict in Gaza as reasons for decreased support among young voters.\n\nA sufficient decline in turnout by young voters for Biden in 2024 could determine whether or not he wins battleground states in his bid for reelection." }, { "id": 20982, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "Iran Saudi Arabia War 2070", "url_title": "Iran Saudi Arabia War 2070", "slug": "iran-saudi-arabia-war-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:52:50.320185Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T19:38:23.883863Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20982, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:52:50.320185Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have been fighting a [proxy war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict) since the Iranian Revolution. They have not yet come to direct blows, and [third party countries](https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-iran-diplomatic-ties-2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526) are attempting to mediate the dispute. [Speculation abounds](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-saudi-arabia-gaza/) about the effect of the Israel-Hamas War on Iran-Saudi relations.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Iran and Saudi Arabia (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Iran and the government of Saudi Arabia).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Iran and the government of Saudi Arabia. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Iran or Saudi Arabia cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757101093.093183, "end_time": 1782008867.038, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757101093.093183, "end_time": 1782008867.038, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.2829447134435304 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.474280903951737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.11243928018335109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.984842507615586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0902215738421042, 0.26404541201653237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8883429881695587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9350248331675358, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 1.152017983756181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080321695294913, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.36963892931385 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287763.115147, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287763.115147, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 15, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8137630490003442, 0.18623695099965581 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Iran and Saudi Arabia have been fighting a [proxy war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran%E2%80%93Saudi_Arabia_proxy_conflict) since the Iranian Revolution. They have not yet come to direct blows, and [third party countries](https://apnews.com/article/saudi-arabia-iran-diplomatic-ties-2f80bb71a995910cb4b172e5dbee3526) are attempting to mediate the dispute. [Speculation abounds](https://responsiblestatecraft.org/iran-saudi-arabia-gaza/) about the effect of the Israel-Hamas War on Iran-Saudi relations." }, { "id": 20975, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "Iran Azerbaijan War 2070", "url_title": "Iran Azerbaijan War 2070", "slug": "iran-azerbaijan-war-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:37:26.254028Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.985360Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 21, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20975, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Iran and Azerbaijan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2024-01-09T16:37:26.254028Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:56:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:56:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Azerbaijanis are the [second-largest ethnic group in Iran.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Azerbaijanis#Demographics) [There has been recent political tension](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/8/analysis-will-azerbaijan-iran-tensions-lead-to-war) between Azerbaijan and Iran due the latter accusing the former of fomenting separatist sentiment in its territory. Azerbaijan has fought several conflicts against Armenia for the same reasons.\n\nThere has been an effort of [rapprochement](https://cepa.org/article/iran-seeks-to-make-a-friend-of-old-enemy-azerbaijan/) between the two countries, however.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Iran and Azerbaijan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Iran and the government of Azerbaijan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Iran and the government of Azerbaijan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Iran or Azerbaijan cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20975, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754611572.602963, "end_time": 1850126967.66317, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754611572.602963, "end_time": 1850126967.66317, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.21 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.79, 0.21 ], "means": [ 0.2946131804398282 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.62366871627356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5492768913479766, 0.4203848492435676, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36493561440074684, 0.7053717364567356, 1.0, 0.0, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0844043823626969, 1.604052316014311, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06456484912809458, 0.0, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04698521070567398, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7949347303552422 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289534.828467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289534.828467, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9024423712141352, 0.09755762878586484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 32, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Azerbaijanis are the [second-largest ethnic group in Iran.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iranian_Azerbaijanis#Demographics) [There has been recent political tension](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/4/8/analysis-will-azerbaijan-iran-tensions-lead-to-war) between Azerbaijan and Iran due the latter accusing the former of fomenting separatist sentiment in its territory. Azerbaijan has fought several conflicts against Armenia for the same reasons.\n\nThere has been an effort of [rapprochement](https://cepa.org/article/iran-seeks-to-make-a-friend-of-old-enemy-azerbaijan/) between the two countries, however." }, { "id": 20968, "title": "Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?", "short_title": "South China Sea Settlement by 2030", "url_title": "South China Sea Settlement by 2030", "slug": "south-china-sea-settlement-by-2030", "author_id": 115666, "author_username": "Cato", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-09T08:34:17.131148Z", "published_at": "2025-02-11T17:40:53.672241Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.531040Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2025-02-11T17:40:53.672239Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2025-02-14T17:40:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 5, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20968, "title": "Will China settle its South China Sea maritime boundary dispute with any other state by 2030?", "created_at": "2024-01-09T08:34:17.131148Z", "open_time": "2025-02-14T17:40:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2025-02-18T17:40:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2025-02-18T17:40:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2031-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Eight countries border the South China Sea: China (People's of Republic of China/PRC, but \"China\" hereafter), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC, but just \"Taiwan\" hereafter), the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Singapore. All but Singapore have active disputes over parts of the sea. The largest disputant is China, which claims almost the entire sea. See [this site](https://chinaus-icas.org/icas-maritime-affairs-program/map-maritime-issue-trackers/maritime-tracker-south-sea/south-china-sea-maritime-claims/) for visualization tools, or see [this map](http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/article-images/uid-606-1452634492/b26fe8.png):\n\n\n\nThe South China Sea includes six surface (or near-surface) features:\n\n| Feature | Claimant(s) | De Facto Control in 2023 |\n| ----------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| Paracel Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam | China |\n| Spratly Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei | Divided; e.g., China controls Fiery Cross Reef, Taiwan controls Itu Aba (geographically largest ) |\n| Pratas Islands | China, Taiwan, Philippines | Taiwan |\n| Scarborough Shoal | China, Taiwan, Philippines | China |\n| Macclesfield Bank (submerged atoll) | China, Taiwan | ??? |\n| Natuna Islands | Indonesia | Indonesia |\n\nChina and Vietnam have invested heavily in naval and dual-use assets to bolster their claims. [A 2022 report by the RAND Corporation (PDF)](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2000/PEA2021-1/RAND_PEA2021-1.pdf) summarizes the economic importance of the region:\n\n> In 2019, it held an estimated 12 percent of the world’s total fish catch. Approximately one-third of all global maritime trade, totaling an estimated \\$3.37 trillion in 2016, passes through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. In 2017, 40 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas passed through the South China Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that there are 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the South China Sea but cautions that “it is unclear how economically feasible it would be to extract them.” China transports the most goods through the South China Sea, followed by South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan.", "resolution_criteria": "Resolves **Yes** if, prior to the end of 2030, any of Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, or Vietnam reaches a formal public agreement with China on its maritime boundary with the People's Republic of China.\n\nSuch agreement could take many forms: full recognition of China's claims, China's full recognition of competing claims, or any other settlement, as long as both countries officially agree on the boundary. The agreement must cover the entire maritime boundary between the two countries. For example, if China and Vietnam settle their dispute over the Paracels but not over the Spratleys, then this is not enough for Yes.\n\nResolves **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "\"Formal public agreement\" can be a joint public statement, joint written communiqué, treaty, or other official announcement, or such announcements or statements separately if done by both parties.\n\nAgreement still counts even if extracted under duress. For example, if China and Vietnam fight (as they did in 1974 and 1988), and China forces Vietnam to accept China's sovereignty claims, the resolution is **Yes**. But \"agreement by subsumation\" doesn't count. For example, if China conquers Taiwan, effectively removing Taiwan's objections to the PRC's claims, this doesn't count as Yes.", "post_id": 20968, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756364753.326468, "end_time": 1758784542.542839, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756364753.326468, "end_time": 1758784542.542839, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.27 ], "centers": [ 0.27 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.73, 0.27 ], "means": [ 0.4859908422817902 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 5, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Eight countries border the South China Sea: China (People's of Republic of China/PRC, but \"China\" hereafter), Taiwan (Republic of China/ROC, but just \"Taiwan\" hereafter), the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, Indonesia, and Singapore. All but Singapore have active disputes over parts of the sea. The largest disputant is China, which claims almost the entire sea. See [this site](https://chinaus-icas.org/icas-maritime-affairs-program/map-maritime-issue-trackers/maritime-tracker-south-sea/south-china-sea-maritime-claims/) for visualization tools, or see [this map](http://www.inquiriesjournal.com/article-images/uid-606-1452634492/b26fe8.png):\n\n\n\nThe South China Sea includes six surface (or near-surface) features:\n\n| Feature | Claimant(s) | De Facto Control in 2023 |\n| ----------------------------------- | ------------------------------------------------------ | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| Paracel Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam | China |\n| Spratly Islands | China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei | Divided; e.g., China controls Fiery Cross Reef, Taiwan controls Itu Aba (geographically largest ) |\n| Pratas Islands | China, Taiwan, Philippines | Taiwan |\n| Scarborough Shoal | China, Taiwan, Philippines | China |\n| Macclesfield Bank (submerged atoll) | China, Taiwan | ??? |\n| Natuna Islands | Indonesia | Indonesia |\n\nChina and Vietnam have invested heavily in naval and dual-use assets to bolster their claims. [A 2022 report by the RAND Corporation (PDF)](https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/perspectives/PEA2000/PEA2021-1/RAND_PEA2021-1.pdf) summarizes the economic importance of the region:\n\n> In 2019, it held an estimated 12 percent of the world’s total fish catch. Approximately one-third of all global maritime trade, totaling an estimated \\$3.37 trillion in 2016, passes through the Strait of Malacca and the South China Sea. In 2017, 40 percent of the world’s liquified natural gas passed through the South China Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that there are 11 billion barrels of oil and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas beneath the South China Sea but cautions that “it is unclear how economically feasible it would be to extract them.” China transports the most goods through the South China Sea, followed by South Korea, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, and Japan." }, { "id": 20953, "title": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?", "short_title": "Aerial Drone Attack in the US Before 2026?", "url_title": "Aerial Drone Attack in the US Before 2026?", "slug": "aerial-drone-attack-in-the-us-before-2026", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-06T18:33:16.623288Z", "published_at": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T22:16:54.920978Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20953, "title": "Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-01-06T18:33:16.623288Z", "open_time": "2024-03-25T18:03:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-03-28T18:03:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-03-28T18:03:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Weaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a [new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/). The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to build and use for engaging moving and stationary targets. With the addition of AI-supported target tracking, their success rate can be further improved, turning them into a new type of weapon used for eliminating high-valued targets or in acts of terrorism across the globe.\n\nAs a potential weapon of terrorism, it has a number of advantages: \n\n* The drones themselves are considered civilian equipment and are much less regulated compared to firearms. In most countries they can be shipped across the borders without extra permissions.\n* Comparable price to a sniper rifle. The current price of a DJI Mavic 3 drone is [about $2000](https://www.amazon.com/DJI-Mavic-Hasselblad-Omnidirectional-Transmission/dp/B09HH8B79P?th=1). However, it usually needs additional work to be turned into a combat drone.\n* Using the drone does not require the operator to have a line-of-sight with the target. The operator can remain hidden throughout the process and leave the area unnoticed. \n* Compared to using an IED the drone does not require the operator to ever visit the target area.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves a **Yes** if after March 22, 2024, and before January 1, 2026, credible sources report that a terrorist attack using an aerial drone led to at least one injury or death in the United States.", "fine_print": "The reports from credible sources must explicitly mention the words \"terrorist attack\", \"act of terrorism\" or a similar phrase. Deaths or injuries caused by accident, during military training, or as a result of criminal shootouts will not trigger the resolution. Attacks by the governments of foreign countries will generally not be considered to be terrorist attacks.\n\nThe drone in question must meet following criteria:\n\n* Be remotely controlled\n* Have an explosive payload\n* Have propellers or another means of flying and be in a state of flight at the moment of the event (that is, not lying on the ground or in a storage)\n\nFor the purpose of this question, the United States includes the land area that belongs to any of the [50 US states](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_and_territories_of_the_United_States) and the District of Columbia. The following territories will not trigger the resolution of the question:\n\n* [Territories of the US](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territories_of_the_United_States)\n* US embassies and consulates in foreign countries\n* US ships\n* US military bases in foreign countries\n\nMetaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of initial reporting is in doubt. If it is unclear whether an event was a terrorist attack resolution may wait for additional confirmation. Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758233804.319716, "end_time": 1759747585.277703, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758233804.319716, "end_time": 1759747585.277703, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.07968805464789475 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4203848492435676, 0.7949347303552422, 0.36493561440074684, 0.62366871627356, 1.5492768913479766, 0.48167841893631047, 0.0, 1.598310734715908, 0.26985829399049166, 0.0, 0.13230489461434952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3148965317832342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0844043823626969, 0.10687792566038573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16099456957167682, 0.2294348988188281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11155005983376856, 0.0, 0.03105063701600968, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1932619357323092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288751.715984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288751.715984, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 42, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8794237687620704, 0.1205762312379296 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 213, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Weaponized aerial drones, especially the FPV drones rose in popularity in 2022 as a [new type of weapon in the Russo-Ukrainian war](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/02/drones-russia-ukraine-air-war/). The modern commercial FPV drones have an operational range of 2-3 km (more with the retranslator), and are easy to build and use for engaging moving and stationary targets. With the addition of AI-supported target tracking, their success rate can be further improved, turning them into a new type of weapon used for eliminating high-valued targets or in acts of terrorism across the globe.\n\nAs a potential weapon of terrorism, it has a number of advantages: \n\n* The drones themselves are considered civilian equipment and are much less regulated compared to firearms. In most countries they can be shipped across the borders without extra permissions.\n* Comparable price to a sniper rifle. The current price of a DJI Mavic 3 drone is [about $2000](https://www.amazon.com/DJI-Mavic-Hasselblad-Omnidirectional-Transmission/dp/B09HH8B79P?th=1). However, it usually needs additional work to be turned into a combat drone.\n* Using the drone does not require the operator to have a line-of-sight with the target. The operator can remain hidden throughout the process and leave the area unnoticed. \n* Compared to using an IED the drone does not require the operator to ever visit the target area." }, { "id": 20925, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "short_title": "Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?", "url_title": "Natural Pandemic to cause (near) extinction?", "slug": "natural-pandemic-to-cause-near-extinction", "author_id": 126626, "author_username": "skmmcj", "coauthors": [ { "id": 104761, "username": "Tamay" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-05T04:53:32.359114Z", "published_at": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.620337Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T22:30:29.005452Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2932, "type": "question_series", "name": "Ragnarök Series", "slug": "ragnarok-series", "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2018-09-19T12:47:21Z", "close_date": "2100-01-05T13:47:21Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-02-15T13:47:21.479124Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T22:30:29.005452Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20925, "title": "Ragnarök Question Series: if a natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?", "created_at": "2024-01-05T04:53:32.359114Z", "open_time": "2024-04-03T14:43:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-06T14:43:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-06T14:43:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2100-01-01T10:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2099-12-31T10:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/), a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is [estimated](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history) that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if, before January 1, 2100 a global natural pandemic catastrophe that results in the reduction of global population of at least 10% (in any period of 5 years or less) occurs, and the global population is less than 5% of the pre-catastrophe population at any point within 25 years of the catastrophe. The question resolves **No** if such a global natural pandemic catastrophe occurs, but the post-catastrophe population remains above 5%. The question will be **Annulled** if no such global natural pandemic catastrophe occurs before 2100.\n\nResolution requires there to be a high degree of confidence that the relevant pathogens have natural origins, as opposed to being artificially created, modified, or enhanced in a laboratory setting, such as through Gain of Function research. Announcements to that effect from two major institutions (e.g., WHO, CDC) will suffice if no major institutions announce that there is a significant probability that the pathogen is engineered. For the purpose of this question, \"years\" are defined as consecutive calendar years.", "fine_print": "This question is part of the Ragnarök Question Series. For a list of other questions in the series see the background of [this question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2514/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-question-series-if-a-global-biological-catastrophe-occurs-will-it-reduce-the-human-population-by-95-or-more/).\n\nPopulation estimates would come from the UN or its successor. If no such estimates are published, admins might consult other reputable sources.", "post_id": 20925, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1754941233.878123, "end_time": 1951273195.425643, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.038 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1754941233.878123, "end_time": 1951273195.425643, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.038 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04083014006678602 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.37094526010189, 2.847492627328515, 0.0, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287754.146709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287754.146709, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982381924930981, 0.0017618075069019564 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Recent pandemics include tuberculosis, Russian flu, Spanish flu, Asian flu, cholera, Hong Kong flu, HIV/AIDS, SARS and COVID-19.\n\nIn the [headline question to this series](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/), a global catastrophe is defined as a 10% decrease in the world population in any period of 5 years. On this definition, the COVID-19 pandemic does not count as a global catastrophe.\n\nBy contrast, the bubonic plague likely does count as a global catastrophe on that definition, as it is [estimated](https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/21539483/covid-19-black-death-plagues-in-history) that it killed between 25 million and 200 million people in the space of five years, that is between 5 percent to 40 percent of the world’s population at the time." }, { "id": 20919, "title": "Will at least two of the three listed moon landing missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Successful Moon Landings in Early 2024?", "url_title": "Successful Moon Landings in Early 2024?", "slug": "successful-moon-landings-in-early-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-04T23:34:19.702724Z", "published_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.376784Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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missions successfully land on the moon before March 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-04T23:34:19.702724Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-11T16:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-11T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-02-24T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "There are three moon lander missions scheduled in early 2024, two by private companies and [one by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Company](https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-landing-try-january-2024) (JAXA). Either private landing could potentially represent the [first ever successful private moon landing](https://www.space.com/astrobotic-peregrine-private-moon-lander-risks-reward), following [two previous attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#:~:text=Two%20organizations%20have%20attempted%20but%20failed%20to%20achieve%20soft%20landings%3A%20Israeli%20private%20space%20agency%20SpaceIL%20with%20their%20Beresheet%20spacecraft%2C%20and%20Japanese%20company%20ispace%27s%20Hakuto%2DR%20Mission%201.),\n\nSee below for a table with information regarding the missions and their scheduled dates as of January 5, 2024. Note that Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission was originally scheduled for no earlier than (NET) January 12, 2024, but [was delayed in late December](https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-intuitive-machines-private-moon-lander-delay-february) until mid-February.\n\n| Organization | Mission | Lander Payload | Announced Launch Date (NET) | Announced Land Date |\n| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) (JAXA) | [Smart Lander for Investigating Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM) | [Two small lunar rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Rovers) | [September 6, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Mission) (completed) | January 19, 2024 |\n| [Astrobotic Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrobotic_Technology) | [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One) | [Five small Mexican Space Agency rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Lunar_rovers)<br />A small rover from Carnegie Mellon University<br />An array of sensors and instruments<br />[Time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules), including cremated human remains and a physical bitcoin. | [January 8, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) | [February 23, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) |\n| [Intuitive Machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intuitive_Machines) | [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission) | [An array of instruments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#Payloads) for NASA and others | [Mid-February 2024](https://investors.intuitivemachines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-machines-im-1-lunar-mission-launch-update) | [Roughly one week after launch](https://spacenews.com/intuitive-machines-delays-first-lunar-lander-launch-to-february/) |", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, at least two of the following listed moon missions successfully land on the moon.\n\n* Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)'s [Smart Lander for Investigating the Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM)\n* Astrobotic Technology's [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One)\n* Intuitive Machine's [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission)", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, a successful landing will be defined as one which results in the lander remaining intact and able to communicate with the Earth, and which does not prevent at least some of its payload from being able to carry out its intended mission.\n * For example, a landing that resulted in minor damage to the lander, its systems, or some of its payload, but some of the carried payload/equipment was still able to carry out its intended mission and communicate with Earth, would result in the question resolving as **Yes** (this does not include cases where the lander is destroyed on impact but payloads such as [time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules) might survive impact).\n* The landers must land before March 1, 2024, 00:00 UTC occurs on Earth. Resolution will be determined based on information published before March 7, 2024, regarding whether the criteria for a successful landing have been met.", "post_id": 20919, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708435189.993066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708435189.993066, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.37 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.475 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.63, 0.37 ], "means": [ 0.3863623826184279 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.7863802348471245, 0.0017507923254573214, 0.0, 0.003232159263522038, 0.016896348308650458, 0.0, 0.007162980641513756, 0.019849710834513614, 0.0, 0.08775967686003228, 0.0, 0.005064497859462841, 0.0, 0.14450954806210053, 0.8199959812484032, 0.0295235603270856, 0.07314828828360052, 0.08160132585292665, 6.485756649792505e-05, 1.2717973052936995, 0.6115312608691672, 0.011722212474960787, 0.0009605953953489713, 0.33343379982753124, 1.7927765411651615, 0.6010206033959818, 0.9475890696843912, 0.7852639383898099, 0.0, 4.300660545565744, 0.0322173805755015, 0.27775232452902265, 1.6071537237713467, 0.6111290793294113, 0.4951273574929651, 0.06341840576178678, 0.2748800297074082, 0.017017519834341143, 0.000779791488395075, 2.2183158085702206, 0.25510906097504943, 1.619933478852991, 0.9106853040880452, 1.0813728217467262, 0.8953567807370235, 0.0, 0.8149625152409314, 0.0, 0.7131982181449822, 1.2582178858065742, 0.0, 1.2602120414470348, 0.0, 0.018422061529515928, 0.39594573581493886, 0.00036140220085834524, 0.04602102089747604, 0.0, 7.156529123733864e-06, 0.5407785541277873, 0.5550534311048547, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00017630114444938384, 1.3957605709199001, 0.0, 1.9323357132921226e-05, 0.0003037476707123251, 0.0, 0.22827890622179167, 4.623225050369796e-06, 0.03822664654593759, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0390112435584349, 0.0, 0.061611267171373, 1.630388567251563e-06, 0.0, 0.0012993742351993323, 0.0, 0.03415597258179905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007336438991862936, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010808410011078592, 0.0, 5.53364456259575e-07, 0.0, 0.2358326528632392, 0.0, 0.0, 2.176558275098083e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027189832881252117, 0.02832347174950297 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 13.034602736337552, "coverage": 0.9999709675785906, "baseline_score": -82.30551302772983, "spot_peer_score": 9.141313618154367, "peer_archived_score": 13.034602736337552, "baseline_archived_score": -82.30551302772983, "spot_peer_archived_score": 9.141313618154367 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1708435190.111186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1708435190.111186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 277, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6602954206283113, 0.33970457937168874 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 887, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "There are three moon lander missions scheduled in early 2024, two by private companies and [one by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Company](https://www.space.com/japan-slim-moon-landing-try-january-2024) (JAXA). Either private landing could potentially represent the [first ever successful private moon landing](https://www.space.com/astrobotic-peregrine-private-moon-lander-risks-reward), following [two previous attempts](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moon_landing#:~:text=Two%20organizations%20have%20attempted%20but%20failed%20to%20achieve%20soft%20landings%3A%20Israeli%20private%20space%20agency%20SpaceIL%20with%20their%20Beresheet%20spacecraft%2C%20and%20Japanese%20company%20ispace%27s%20Hakuto%2DR%20Mission%201.),\n\nSee below for a table with information regarding the missions and their scheduled dates as of January 5, 2024. Note that Intuitive Machines' IM-1 mission was originally scheduled for no earlier than (NET) January 12, 2024, but [was delayed in late December](https://www.space.com/spacex-launch-intuitive-machines-private-moon-lander-delay-february) until mid-February.\n\n| Organization | Mission | Lander Payload | Announced Launch Date (NET) | Announced Land Date |\n| ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- | -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |\n| [Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JAXA) (JAXA) | [Smart Lander for Investigating Moon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon) (SLIM) | [Two small lunar rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Rovers) | [September 6, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smart_Lander_for_Investigating_Moon#Mission) (completed) | January 19, 2024 |\n| [Astrobotic Technology](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astrobotic_Technology) | [Peregrine Mission One](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One) | [Five small Mexican Space Agency rovers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Lunar_rovers)<br />A small rover from Carnegie Mellon University<br />An array of sensors and instruments<br />[Time capsules](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peregrine_Mission_One#Time_capsules), including cremated human remains and a physical bitcoin. | [January 8, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) | [February 23, 2024](https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/companies-attempt-us-moon-landings-apollo-missions-half-106109930) |\n| [Intuitive Machines](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intuitive_Machines) | [IM-1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#IM-1_mission) | [An array of instruments](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nova-C#Payloads) for NASA and others | [Mid-February 2024](https://investors.intuitivemachines.com/news-releases/news-release-details/intuitive-machines-im-1-lunar-mission-launch-update) | [Roughly one week after launch](https://spacenews.com/intuitive-machines-delays-first-lunar-lander-launch-to-february/) |" }, { "id": 20917, "title": "Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?", "short_title": "Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?", "url_title": "Taurus Missile for Ukraine in 2024?", "slug": "taurus-missile-for-ukraine-in-2024", "author_id": 113860, "author_username": "RuslanBes", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-04T20:31:26.713321Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.375727Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 55, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20917, "title": "Will Germany supply Ukraine with a Taurus missile in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-01-04T20:31:26.713321Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:48:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T02:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T02:35:28.279659Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy \"hard and deeply buried targets\" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow. \n\nAs of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed [€17.1 Billion of military support](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite [explicit requests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-germany-provide-taurus-long-range-missiles-berlin-2023-05-27/) from the Ukrainian government. \n\n* On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann [called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles](https://news.yahoo.com/bundestag-mp-calls-immediate-transfer-172600453.html) to Ukraine.\n* On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as [the only way out for Germany](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100315390/markus-soeder-fordert-fuer-ukraine-den-marschflugkoerper-taurus.html) to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany [accused the federal government](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100311874/ukraine-krieg-joachim-gauck-kritisiert-olaf-scholz-fuer-zoegern-bei-taurus.html) of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine\n* On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag [declined](https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw03-de-wehrbericht-2022-983206) the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves positively if at any point in time during the year 2024, there are credible reports that Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) have at least one Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missile or its variant (see the Fine Print for details) or that AFU have launched one. \n\nAlternatively, the question will resolve positively if the missile is unambiguously listed on [the page dedicated to Military support for Ukraine](https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/news/military-support-ukraine-2054992) on the German Federal Government's official site. If this page is unavailable, another page may be used as a resolution source as long as it belongs to the German Federal Government's official site and contains a list of military equipment provided to Ukraine by Germany. \n\nIf these criteria weren't met until 1 January 2025, 00:00 UTC, the question resolves negatively.", "fine_print": "The missile in possession must be operational, meaning that a model of the missile provided for copying or studying will not trigger the resolution, and neither will a fallen on Ukrainian ground Taurus missile launched by another country.\n\nIf Germany supplies Ukraine with another long-range missile, it will qualify as the variant of the Taurus KEPD 350 as long as the following conditions are met:\n\n* The missile is an air-launched cruise missile\n* The missile is an air-to-ground missile\n* The missile's place of origin is Germany\n* The missile's range is at least 400 km (the KEPD 350K-2 variant)\n* The missile's warhead is at least 100 kg \n\nThe official missile name is not required to include the word \"Taurus\".\n\nDelivering a similarly capable missile manufactured by a third country (e.g. the [Storm Shadow](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm_Shadow)) will not trigger the resolution even if delivery was done by the German government.", "post_id": 20917, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735591924.967116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735591924.967116, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 54, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.023917211796254938 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.028217388980657, 2.6043879852892498, 0.26823490850096354, 0.0, 0.7894276068810536, 0.38474358943460363, 0.0, 0.23873778929343153, 0.20842024273178694, 0.07192562504717721, 0.24026973421529557, 0.0, 0.03094679367520054, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012926585093015749, 0.0, 0.0090705904541796, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09551526241989404, 0.0017494230548454617, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05030905064265755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00475542490027373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1162145989976784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008668798579263653, 0.0, 0.015204078447885579, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368489080579067 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 66.33269419729683, "peer_score": 22.749922202447227, "coverage": 0.99888203562469, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99888203562469, "spot_peer_score": -1.8773426885419173, "spot_baseline_score": -25.153876699596427, "baseline_archived_score": 66.33269419729683, "peer_archived_score": 22.749922202447227, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -1.8773426885419173, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -25.153876699596427 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288757.685793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288757.685793, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 52, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9969928334918383, 0.003007166508161641 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 223, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Taurus KEPD 350](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taurus_KEPD_350) cruise missile is a German-produced air-launched weapon with a declared range of 500+ km and is designed to destroy \"hard and deeply buried targets\" (HDBT) such as hardened underground bunkers. Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) may use it to attempt to destroy the Kerch Bridge, an important logistic path of Russian forces. Due to its long range this missile, upon deployment, could also present a potential threat to the city of Moscow. \n\nAs of Oct. 31, 2023, Germany has committed [€17.1 Billion of military support](https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/) for Ukraine, which made it the second largest donor country after the US. Until this moment, however, Germany hasn't supplied Ukraine with their Taurus missiles despite [explicit requests](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-asks-germany-provide-taurus-long-range-missiles-berlin-2023-05-27/) from the Ukrainian government. \n\n* On 2 January, 2024, the head of the Defense Committee of Germany’s Bundestag parliament, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann [called for the transfer of the Taurus missiles](https://news.yahoo.com/bundestag-mp-calls-immediate-transfer-172600453.html) to Ukraine.\n* On 7 January 2024, Markus Söder the Minister-President of Bavaria named Taurus as [the only way out for Germany](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/internationale-politik/id_100315390/markus-soeder-fordert-fuer-ukraine-den-marschflugkoerper-taurus.html) to avoid security problems. Additionally, Joachim Gauck, the former president of Germany [accused the federal government](https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ukraine/id_100311874/ukraine-krieg-joachim-gauck-kritisiert-olaf-scholz-fuer-zoegern-bei-taurus.html) of hesitant stance on arms deliveries to Ukraine\n* On 17 January 2024 German Bundestag [declined](https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2024/kw03-de-wehrbericht-2022-983206) the proposition to supply Taurus missiles for Ukraine (485 vs 178)." }, { "id": 20895, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "short_title": "2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?", "url_title": "2nd Russian Mobilization in 2024?", "slug": "2nd-russian-mobilization-in-2024", "author_id": 122079, "author_username": "wd28", "coauthors": [ { "id": 134915, "username": "Firenze" } ], "created_at": "2024-01-03T13:03:02.951825Z", "published_at": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.840937Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T23:24:00Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 130, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20895, "title": "Will Russia start a second mobilization wave before 2025, according to the Institute for the Study of War?", "created_at": "2024-01-03T13:03:02.951825Z", "open_time": "2024-04-23T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-26T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-26T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T09:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T23:24:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-16T23:26:11.760432Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T09:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will be resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates) (ISW) reports that a second wave of mobilization is underway in Russia. If this event does not happen, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "* For this resolution, \"mobilization\" is defined as the formal conscription or summoning of reservists by the Russian government, as explicitly recognized and reported by ISW. This includes actions officially declared by the government such as a \"partial mobilization.\" However, this does not include unofficial recruitments often referred to as \"[crypto-mobilization](https://politics.stackexchange.com/questions/75547/what-is-crypto-mobilization)\" or \"self-mobilization,\" or any form of volunteer enlistment. The resolution will rely solely on ISW’s characterization of the mobilization as formally acknowledged by the Russian government.\n\n* If the Institute for the Study of War writes that the next wave of mobilization has not only begun, but has already ended, then this also resolves as Yes.\n\n* ISW will be the sole source used for resolution of this question. If ISW ceases to operate or ceases to publish the relevant updates following the launch of this question, it may resolve as Annulled. Metaculus will determine appropriate resolution based on its assessment of ISW's publications. However, unless ISW’s coverage on the topic is discontinued in this manner, if no official mobilization is reported by ISW before January 1, 2025, then this question will resolve as No.", "post_id": 20895, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735384588.223201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735384588.223201, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 128, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04391854689940586 ], "histogram": [ [ 13.07790923743402, 1.8968988089353016, 1.1259305765141656, 0.0, 0.16261563651991753, 0.8000486602648686, 0.31397960795989815, 0.22456070318273333, 0.20868816928326905, 0.2920149942821614, 0.8760384530366191, 0.24311673443421403, 0.08848284578231039, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5434677574702889, 9.017949372969042e-05, 0.10452558961591647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18142182030359266, 0.07607279484661736, 0.020292376367099678, 0.0, 0.0009540356145073528, 0.038717996906980454, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05249127920076727, 0.0, 0.06176068608466492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09889382303426979, 0.000586859480427528, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018431603109556372, 0.0, 0.005348463429925001, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07040757225652326, 0.0, 0.05910574656195615, 0.006811430115118837, 0.08100981758565247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06105365353032063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1310854303048187, 0.006155526908073243, 0.018963498661181577, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004491483950858434, 0.013383823550694354, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002203835392502228, 0.0, 0.009996656754016274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05956418633767381, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01209110827525308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0018113035510220678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07896550941018672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004717024927596722 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 75.1800119620118, "peer_score": 44.50651840260677, "coverage": 0.9996236220349963, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996236220349963, "spot_peer_score": 14.335838629024332, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 75.1800119620118, "peer_archived_score": 44.50651840260677, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.335838629024332, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287754.546745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287754.546745, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 116, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9854195269703045, 0.014580473029695451 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 313, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to the ISW: \n\n> ISW continues to assess that Putin is likely aware that a second mobilization wave would be widely unpopular and is concerned that such a measure would generate widespread discontent\n\n[RUSSIAN OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGN ASSESSMENT](https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-25-2024), February 25, 2024.\n\n[According to Wikipedia:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Russian_mobilization)\n\n> On 21 September 2022, seven months into the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Russia declared a partial mobilization of military reservists. The decision was made a day after the announcement of the Russian annexation of the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.\n> The announcement of mobilization was seen as a significant escalation of Russia's military efforts in the war with Ukraine. Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announced that Russia had a \"huge mobilization reserve\" and planned to mobilize 300,000 recruits. The precise details of the mobilization plans are currently unclear, however, as the exact number of people to be mobilized is classified.\n> On 28 October, Shoigu told Russian president Vladimir Putin that mobilization had been completed, which was followed an announcement by Putin of its completion.\n\nAs of this question's writing, there is a lot of uncertainty about second wave of mobilization. On one hand, [Russia suffered staggering losses](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11243/russian-military-deaths-by-2024/), and Ukraine plans to [mobilize 500'000 more troops](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraines-military-asks-additional-450000-500000-people-be-mobilised-zelenskiy-2023-12-19/) this year. On the other hand, [Russia probably recruited 400'000 troops last year](https://t.me/medvedev_telegram/402) and plans [to do the same this year](https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/12/22/how-russian-officials-plan-to-recruit-400k-new-contract-soldiers-in-2024-a83509).\n\n\nRelated Question on Metaculus: [Will Russia start another wave of mobilization before the following dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14006/russia-2nd-wave-of-mobilization)" }, { "id": 20880, "title": "Will the US restrict Chinese AI developers' access to US cloud compute before 2025?", "short_title": "US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access?", "url_title": "US Restricts China's Cloud Compute Access?", "slug": "us-restricts-chinas-cloud-compute-access", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T18:41:11.204801Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.446408Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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"2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). However, there exists a loophole: while Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, as well as the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, the US government issues some form of rule or export control that restricts Chinese firms from accessing via [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) at least some of the same chips that they are prevented from purchasing through physical [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). Yes resolution is triggered when a law is enacted or a [final rule](https://www.federalregister.gov/reader-aids/office-of-the-federal-register-blog/2015/03/when-does-this-rule-go-into-effect) is published that would impose such restrictions, regardless of whether or not the rule takes effect before 2025.\n\nThis question resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20880, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688345.798614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688345.798614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 46, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.07181427784417957 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.661725569018112, 0.8316021242747229, 2.1156977089487494, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6620457731179527, 0.3542447088992047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4232239324214639, 0.061894126969327355, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03621693803772868, 0.5577003918267847, 0.1265321246167477, 0.0, 0.16824568062905945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006407544366770682, 0.04438116125448793, 0.0, 0.18575801079970408, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07000249760431822, 0.05451133392988236, 0.022769576841270445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08952255740626561, 0.0, 0.02678127518047141, 0.0, 0.09924199395337108, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010606778452136844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004662905996750363, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07889090770323962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24436596796750037, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015977422099957932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11920684655839074 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 47.20450330481305, "peer_score": 34.80756037644453, "coverage": 0.9999389240406577, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999389240406577, "spot_peer_score": -21.295965981792335, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 47.20450330481305, "peer_archived_score": 34.80756037644453, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -21.295965981792335, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289113.823077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289113.823077, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 39, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9713898171485026, 0.028610182851497405 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 148, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the last year or so, the US government has restricted China's ability to develop cutting edge AI through [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/). However, there exists a loophole: while Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, as well as the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled." }, { "id": 20879, "title": "Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?", "short_title": "Frontier Chinese AI Model by 2027", "url_title": "Frontier Chinese AI Model by 2027", "slug": "frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T16:54:50.995789Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:21.549974Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"2024-02-15T22:48:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Currently, China is not at the cutting edge of AI development (see, e.g., [Cottier, 2022](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/FANYsqzPM9Yht3KM2/the-replication-and-emulation-of-gpt-3#:~:text=~October%202020%3A%20PanGu%2Dalpha%E2%80%94Chinese%20industry%2Dacademia%2Dgovernment%20collaboration%E2%80%94worse%20than%20GPT%2D3)) The question of whether China will become a frontier player in the years to come is key to many discussions of AI policy in the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if an AI model developed by a Chinese firm, between question launch and January 1, 2027, is either:\n\ni) Trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time. \n\nor\n\nii) Top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) Areno ELO rating.\n\nFor i, we will use Epoch AI's \"[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\" database as the resolution source.\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "A “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan counts as being part of China.\n\nThe evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2027. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2026, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2027, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n\nIn case the Epoch AI database or the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard are discountinued, Metaculus admins will do their best to find alternative resolution sources. 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frontier player in the years to come is key to many discussions of AI policy in the United States." }, { "id": 20878, "title": "Will the International Court of Justice order provisional measures against Israel before March 1, 2024?", "short_title": "ICJ Provisional Measures Against Israel 2024?", "url_title": "ICJ Provisional Measures Against Israel 2024?", "slug": "icj-provisional-measures-against-israel-2024", "author_id": 122963, "author_username": "Doryphore", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T16:34:42.678544Z", "published_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.918127Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 66, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T15:40:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-26T15:40:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", 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"resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "South Africa filed a case at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) against Israel claiming it has violated the [1948 Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genocide_Convention) against genocide on Friday December 29. The case will be argued [January 11 or 12](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342). The allegations are that Israel's actions in Gaza are [\"genocidal in character.\"](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf) Israel has vowed to defend itself against the allegations. [According to the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342):\n\n>South African government lawyers are preparing for the case to be heard on 11 and 12 January, Clayson Monyela, a spokesperson for South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said on X.\n\n>The ICJ, which is based in the Hague in the Netherlands, is the UN's highest court. It settles disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues. It does not have the power to bring prosecutions. However, its opinions carry weight with the UN and other international legal bodies.\n\nWhile ICJ cases [can take years](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africas-genocide-case-israel-sets-high-stakes-106055104#:~:text=The%20case%20will%20likely%20drag%20on%20for%20years.), South Africa is requesting that the ICJ order [provisional measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_measure_of_protection). The ICJ [describes provisional measures as](https://www.icj-cij.org/index.php/how-the-court-works#:~:text=Then%20there%20are%20provisional%20measures%2C%20interim%20measures%20which%20can%20be%20requested%20by%20the%20applicant%20State%20if%20it%20considers%20that%20the%20rights%20that%20form%20the%20subject%20of%20its%20application%20are%20in%20immediate%20danger.):\n\n>. . . interim measures which can be requested by the applicant State if it considers that the rights that form the subject of its application are in immediate danger.\n\nAccording to the [ICJ press release](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf) announcing the court filing:\n\n>Pursuant to Article 74 of the Rules of Court, “[a] request for the indication of provisional measures shall have priority over all other cases”.\n\nMore background on provisional measures can be found in [this Lieber Institute article](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/icj-provisional-measures-order-unprecedented/) discussing the ICJ's provisional orders in Ukraine's case against Russia following the 2022 invasion. All ICJ case documents for South Africa's filing against Israel are [available here](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before March 1, 2024, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) orders provisional measures against Israel.", "fine_print": "* For the purposes of this question, a provisional measure against Israel will be one which orders Israel to take some action, including but not limited to:\n * Ending or suspending its military campaign in Gaza.\n * Taking steps to ensure the safety of civilians.\n * Submitting a report to the ICJ.\n* If the ICJ orders provisional measures that do not order Israel to take some action, the question will resolve as **No**.\n* Provisional measures ordered as part of any ICJ case will count, this question is not limited to the case brought by South Africa.\n* The ICJ is not to be confused with the ICC. The ICC is a criminal tribunal that prosecutes individuals. 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The case will be argued [January 11 or 12](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342). The allegations are that Israel's actions in Gaza are [\"genocidal in character.\"](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231228-app-01-00-en.pdf) Israel has vowed to defend itself against the allegations. [According to the BBC](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67866342):\n\n>South African government lawyers are preparing for the case to be heard on 11 and 12 January, Clayson Monyela, a spokesperson for South Africa's Department of International Relations and Cooperation, said on X.\n\n>The ICJ, which is based in the Hague in the Netherlands, is the UN's highest court. It settles disputes between states and gives advisory opinions on international legal issues. It does not have the power to bring prosecutions. However, its opinions carry weight with the UN and other international legal bodies.\n\nWhile ICJ cases [can take years](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/south-africas-genocide-case-israel-sets-high-stakes-106055104#:~:text=The%20case%20will%20likely%20drag%20on%20for%20years.), South Africa is requesting that the ICJ order [provisional measures](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Provisional_measure_of_protection). The ICJ [describes provisional measures as](https://www.icj-cij.org/index.php/how-the-court-works#:~:text=Then%20there%20are%20provisional%20measures%2C%20interim%20measures%20which%20can%20be%20requested%20by%20the%20applicant%20State%20if%20it%20considers%20that%20the%20rights%20that%20form%20the%20subject%20of%20its%20application%20are%20in%20immediate%20danger.):\n\n>. . . interim measures which can be requested by the applicant State if it considers that the rights that form the subject of its application are in immediate danger.\n\nAccording to the [ICJ press release](https://www.icj-cij.org/sites/default/files/case-related/192/192-20231229-pre-01-00-en.pdf) announcing the court filing:\n\n>Pursuant to Article 74 of the Rules of Court, “[a] request for the indication of provisional measures shall have priority over all other cases”.\n\nMore background on provisional measures can be found in [this Lieber Institute article](https://lieber.westpoint.edu/icj-provisional-measures-order-unprecedented/) discussing the ICJ's provisional orders in Ukraine's case against Russia following the 2022 invasion. All ICJ case documents for South Africa's filing against Israel are [available here](https://www.icj-cij.org/case/192)." }, { "id": 20876, "title": "Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?", "short_title": "2024 Indonesian Presidential Election Runoff?", "url_title": "2024 Indonesian Presidential Election Runoff?", "slug": "2024-indonesian-presidential-election-runoff", "author_id": 115652, "author_username": "jeremy.sitorus37", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-01-02T03:14:27.782366Z", "published_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.205536Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 91, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20876, "title": "Will the 2024 Indonesian presidential election go to a runoff?", "created_at": "2024-01-02T03:14:27.782366Z", "open_time": "2024-01-24T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-26T15:39:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-26T15:39:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-06T15:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-02-13T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Indonesian presidential election is being contested by [Anies Baswedan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anies_Baswedan) (independent), the former governor of Jakarta; [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto) (Gerindra), the Minister of Defense; and [Ganjar Pranowo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganjar_Pranowo) (PDI-P), the former governor of Central Java. According to [Indonesian election law](https://rumahpemilu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf), all candidates must register with the General Election Commission (KPU); the period for doing so ended on 14 December, 2023, eliminating the possibility of any other candidates competing.\n\nIndonesian presidential elections are direct, and determined by the popular vote. The law states that if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, then a second round of voting will be held from which all but the two most successful candidates in the first round are to be eliminated. This was the case in 2004 and 2009, after which only two candidates have run (Prabowo and Joko Widodo, the latter of whom won in both 2014 and 2019 but is limited to two terms as President) until now. The first round in 2024 will be held on 14 February, and any second round is to be held on 26 June.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources report that, following the first round of the presidential election, the results show that none of the three presidential candidates have won 50% or more of the vote and that a runoff will be held.", "fine_print": "If reporting is conflicting or unclear this question will wait to resolve until the 15 February-20 March recapitulation (vote summation and verification) period for the electoral results has ended and the outcome is declared by the [General Election Commission](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Elections_Commission) (KPU).", "post_id": 20876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707842860.247048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707842860.247048, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.31414979674834537 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0010142146568156748, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5514963248814784, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7262597419388622, 0.0, 0.09090288086409391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24283972782177998, 1.134355422193633, 0.4151406185251411, 0.11964891568324479, 0.0, 0.1891179962098457, 1.770928187955237, 1.2880336819101654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.103400300106682, 0.8999546713320077, 0.0, 0.14607736383926273, 0.07344717902097064, 1.127481486675597, 0.09746231746313623, 0.6163089641375369, 0.0, 0.040161891972766046, 0.7279431028584126, 0.0012174888155902124, 0.0, 0.12795492306753103, 0.06830738353597367, 0.25819523838988884, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3086154737381661, 0.058942783212658584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29148458645309366, 0.0, 0.07891436402356318, 0.03153587526592278, 0.005303828236946891, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07337605903848818, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043444640796242134, 0.0, 0.5006386729650141, 0.044500426036369174, 0.015697917683711572, 0.0, 0.003460269966480128, 0.05348682526133925, 0.007035290334828157, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06161877370293278, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004734442605196612, 0.0, 0.004762393653203529, 0.0, 0.018842738753081796, 0.0, 0.0006732969874897521, 0.026694112832048304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005625232093766742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1262033938958308 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 36.517654259988475, "coverage": 0.9995044781210735, "baseline_score": -26.269274861231096, "spot_peer_score": 2.757224222452401, "peer_archived_score": 36.517654259988475, "baseline_archived_score": -26.269274861231096, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.757224222452401 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1707842860.280084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1707842860.280084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 91, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8507444416680141, 0.14925555833198592 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 314, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Indonesian presidential election is being contested by [Anies Baswedan](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anies_Baswedan) (independent), the former governor of Jakarta; [Prabowo Subianto](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prabowo_Subianto) (Gerindra), the Minister of Defense; and [Ganjar Pranowo](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ganjar_Pranowo) (PDI-P), the former governor of Central Java. According to [Indonesian election law](https://rumahpemilu.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/UU-No.7-Tahun-2017-tentang-Pemilu.pdf), all candidates must register with the General Election Commission (KPU); the period for doing so ended on 14 December, 2023, eliminating the possibility of any other candidates competing.\n\nIndonesian presidential elections are direct, and determined by the popular vote. The law states that if no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote, then a second round of voting will be held from which all but the two most successful candidates in the first round are to be eliminated. This was the case in 2004 and 2009, after which only two candidates have run (Prabowo and Joko Widodo, the latter of whom won in both 2014 and 2019 but is limited to two terms as President) until now. The first round in 2024 will be held on 14 February, and any second round is to be held on 26 June." }, { "id": 20816, "title": "Do fish live in Lake Vostok?", "short_title": "Lake Vostok Fish", "url_title": "Lake Vostok Fish", "slug": "lake-vostok-fish", "author_id": 156496, "author_username": "ScienceMon", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-25T19:34:59.478992Z", "published_at": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:48:58.428143Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 22, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3699, "name": "Natural Sciences", "slug": "natural-sciences", "emoji": "🔬", "description": "Natural Sciences", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20816, "title": "Do fish live in Lake Vostok?", "created_at": "2023-12-25T19:34:59.478992Z", "open_time": "2023-12-29T20:19:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-01T20:19:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-01T20:19:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.\n\nLake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the lake, but claims of fish DNA recovery [remain disputed](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.13364).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a peer-reviewed scientific study of samples from [Lake Vostok](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Vostok) reveals conclusive evidence, before 2050, that fish live in the lake. This evidence could include:\n\n- Fish genetic sequences that cannot be attributed to known fish species\n\n- Photographic evidence of a fish\n\n- Recovery of a fish, in part or in whole", "fine_print": "\"Fish\" will include ray-finned fish, lobe-finned fish, cartilaginous fish, and jawless fish. Any of these will be sufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\nStarfish or jellyfish will not be sufficient for a Yes resolution.", "post_id": 20816, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472527.822345, "end_time": 1785955531.207971, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472527.822345, "end_time": 1785955531.207971, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.12665049839047407 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6390484072978414, 0.3136270424281998, 0.08591921520153545, 0.0, 0.8039004749638528, 2.030458241054765, 0.12942361094527205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8768022295910416, 0.7178340848142957, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.441563953841307, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 1.037771433202568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25314547146501193, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287811.783624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287811.783624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9835825276783873, 0.016417472321612715 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 50, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Lake Vostok is the largest subglacial lake in Antarctica. It is one of the largest freshwater lakes in the world but exists beneath approximately 4000 meters of ice.\n\nLake Vostok is poorly explored. Scientists have recovered microbial DNA from the lake, but claims of fish DNA recovery [remain disputed](https://www.nature.com/articles/nature.2013.13364)." }, { "id": 20791, "title": "Will a New or Joint \"Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record\" in NBA History be set in 2024?", "short_title": "New Worst NBA Season Record in 2024", "url_title": "New Worst NBA Season Record in 2024", "slug": "new-worst-nba-season-record-in-2024", "author_id": 119839, "author_username": "DaAdCh", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-23T14:13:44.927281Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.368330Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 11, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20791, "title": "Will a New or Joint \"Worst 82-Game Regular Season Record\" in NBA History be set in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-23T14:13:44.927281Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:27:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:27:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:27:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-04-14T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-08T03:15:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Two months into the 2023-24 [National Basketball Association](https://www.nba.com/) (NBA) regular season, a number of teams have slumped to a poor record. The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have less than a .200 winning percentage. There has been [some criticism of the Detroit Pistons](https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-fact-or-fiction-are-the-2023-24-detroit-pistons-the-worst-team-ever-to-try-221917107.html) in particular due to [their record-breaking 27-game losing streak](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39189426/detroit-pistons-set-nba-record-27th-straight-loss), and [chants of \"sell the team\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/basketball/67799559). Some have suggested they are one of the worst NBA teams in the league's history. \n\nOrdinarily, the NBA regular season consists of 82 games, and the current worst 82-game regular season record is 9 wins and 73 losses, set by [the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers](https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/worst_seasons.htm).\n\nThis question asks whether a team will set a new record for the worst NBA 82-game regular season or equal the current record (and thereby jointing holding the record).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"Yes\" if any NBA team achieves a 2023-24 regular season record of 9 wins and 73 losses (or fewer wins). The question will will resolve \"No\" if all NBA teams in the 2023-24 regular season achieve at least 10 wins or more.", "fine_print": "If the NBA ceases to exist for any reason including due to a scandal or other incident, the question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 20791, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710188910.202429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710188910.202429, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03039432981373222 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.8714044363396007, 1.9287429580134396, 0.6419315407681068, 0.7744494858282296, 0.1535851000440937, 0.20077883994766343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.889920335945369, "coverage": 0.6501842824051749, "baseline_score": 36.05286420593034, "spot_peer_score": 42.14501655809698, "peer_archived_score": 6.889920335945369, "baseline_archived_score": 36.05286420593034, "spot_peer_archived_score": 42.14501655809698 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1709797868.086622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1709797868.086622, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980049471702692, 0.0019950528297308016 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Two months into the 2023-24 [National Basketball Association](https://www.nba.com/) (NBA) regular season, a number of teams have slumped to a poor record. The Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs have less than a .200 winning percentage. There has been [some criticism of the Detroit Pistons](https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-fact-or-fiction-are-the-2023-24-detroit-pistons-the-worst-team-ever-to-try-221917107.html) in particular due to [their record-breaking 27-game losing streak](https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/39189426/detroit-pistons-set-nba-record-27th-straight-loss), and [chants of \"sell the team\"](https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/basketball/67799559). Some have suggested they are one of the worst NBA teams in the league's history. \n\nOrdinarily, the NBA regular season consists of 82 games, and the current worst 82-game regular season record is 9 wins and 73 losses, set by [the 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers](https://www.landofbasketball.com/statistics/worst_seasons.htm).\n\nThis question asks whether a team will set a new record for the worst NBA 82-game regular season or equal the current record (and thereby jointing holding the record)." }, { "id": 20790, "title": "Will there be a serious radiation incident at any nuclear plant in Ukraine before 2025?", "short_title": "Radiation Incident in Ukraine before 2025?", "url_title": "Radiation Incident in Ukraine before 2025?", "slug": "radiation-incident-in-ukraine-before-2025", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 109158, "username": "Gaia" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:58:48.136442Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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"scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:08.155671Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):\n\n> \"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as \"an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt.\" The prime example of a \"major nuclear accident\" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.\n\n\nThe situation regarding Russian control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), has been a [focal point of concern](https://www.world-nuclear.org/ukraine-information/ukraine-russia-war-and-nuclear-energy.aspx) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since the early stages of the invasion in February 2022. The plant came under armed attack in March 2022, marking the first instance of an operating civil nuclear power plant being attacked during an active conflict. This attack led to a projectile hitting a training building and resulted in a fire, but essential equipment and the reactors remained unaffected.\n\nSince the conflict began, the [operation of the reactors has varied](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197574725/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-power-plants), with some being taken offline or put online as needed, depending on the stability of external power supplies and conditions around the plants.\n\n> There are six reactors at Zaporizhzhia maintained by Energoatom personnel, according to Kotin, but Russia controls the plant. Those reactors are currently offline. Meanwhile, Ukraine is operating nine reactors generating electricity at three other locations around the country.\n\nIn June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of [plotting to stage an attack on ZNPP](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-plotting-imminent-attack-nuclear-station-2023-07-04/).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if at any time in 2024, [the International Atomic Energy Agency](https://www.iaea.org/) reports, in connection with any nuclear power plant within the borders of Ukraine – as they stood in December 2021 – an accident of level 5, 6 or 7 of the [International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Nuclear_Event_Scale).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20790, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654764.600669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 521, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654764.600669, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 521, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.037666295400777615 ], "histogram": [ [ 25.50159439819425, 9.150915038339937, 2.136911336898904, 1.8150897246763638, 0.6697789253040944, 1.8571373433351055, 0.18048473042555718, 0.333150973189967, 0.15509229932936272, 0.0016218221884579966, 0.44931793618840987, 0.055232306882144394, 0.03146590273882443, 0.0073865709980384334, 0.008248961356220235, 0.2026556923642402, 0.0072003871113460105, 0.0010890320470124833, 0.01718729923968089, 0.0003736517626180772, 0.058087367246065946, 1.1422776253555228e-05, 1.0239064360974749e-05, 0.004826329276110257, 0.0001838615078156128, 0.13105747216042604, 9.096692358638932e-07, 0.0, 0.021809177293069117, 0.0, 0.011378514459846969, 4.3480709805526805e-08, 5.004557650103814e-05, 0.0025467977406541165, 0.0, 0.00114365832609267, 3.9593449083327185e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.445856265916369e-06, 0.02852625403669448, 0.0, 8.368143838260581e-07, 0.0, 2.0732048002979295e-05, 2.2520855475567306e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030402387961546884, 4.282968649043198e-05, 0.0, 5.617607459710607e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8679605009171602e-05, 0.0009541349364149433, 9.901351172829175e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003569494359787614, 0.01911155492578996, 0.0, 0.0005376160683015102, 0.0, 1.5281643884079898e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011801308592878333, 0.0016812596726904529, 0.0017766922702461023, 0.0, 9.864787048560281e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 8.830738153154202e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5132949668869675, 0.000305211811524573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.525002944304171, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22963414350115566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 94.41271591924125, "peer_score": 13.037513293602618, "coverage": 0.9999010183403029, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999010183403029, "spot_peer_score": 10.986404634167664, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "baseline_archived_score": 94.41271591924125, "peer_archived_score": 13.037513293602618, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 10.986404634167664, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289697.880571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 505, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289697.880571, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 505, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9980280258707335, 0.0019719741292665784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 948, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_and_radiation_accidents_and_incidents):\n\n> \"A nuclear and radiation accident is defined by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) as \"an event that has led to significant consequences to people, the environment or the facility. Examples include lethal effect to individuals, large radioactivity release to the environment, reactor core melt.\" The prime example of a \"major nuclear accident\" is one in which a reactor core is damaged and significant amounts of radioactive isotopes are released, such as in the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 and Fukushima nuclear disaster in 2011.\n\n\nThe situation regarding Russian control of Ukrainian nuclear reactors, particularly the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP), has been a [focal point of concern](https://www.world-nuclear.org/ukraine-information/ukraine-russia-war-and-nuclear-energy.aspx) since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ZNPP, Europe's largest nuclear plant with six reactors, has been under Russian occupation since the early stages of the invasion in February 2022. The plant came under armed attack in March 2022, marking the first instance of an operating civil nuclear power plant being attacked during an active conflict. This attack led to a projectile hitting a training building and resulted in a fire, but essential equipment and the reactors remained unaffected.\n\nSince the conflict began, the [operation of the reactors has varied](https://www.npr.org/2023/09/06/1197574725/russia-ukraine-war-nuclear-power-plants), with some being taken offline or put online as needed, depending on the stability of external power supplies and conditions around the plants.\n\n> There are six reactors at Zaporizhzhia maintained by Energoatom personnel, according to Kotin, but Russia controls the plant. Those reactors are currently offline. Meanwhile, Ukraine is operating nine reactors generating electricity at three other locations around the country.\n\nIn June 2023, Russia and Ukraine accused each other of [plotting to stage an attack on ZNPP](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-ukraine-accuse-each-other-plotting-imminent-attack-nuclear-station-2023-07-04/)." }, { "id": 20789, "title": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "short_title": "Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?", "url_title": "Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?", "slug": "fed-funds-rate-below-4", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:48:06.779655Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.869014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 432, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20789, "title": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:48:06.779655Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:52:39.322047Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target FFR is [between 5.25% and 5.50%](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the FFR, impacting employment and inflation in the U.S. economy. 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