Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2840
{ "count": 5969, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2860", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2820", "results": [ { "id": 20789, "title": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "short_title": "Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?", "url_title": "Fed Funds Rate Below 4%?", "slug": "fed-funds-rate-below-4", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:48:06.779655Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.869014Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 432, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20789, "title": "Will the Fed Funds Rate on December 31, 2024 be below 4%?", "created_at": "2023-12-23T00:48:06.779655Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:52:39.322047Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target FFR is [between 5.25% and 5.50%](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the FFR, impacting employment and inflation in the U.S. economy. Changes in the FFR directly influence borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government, thereby affecting [overall economic activity and inflation](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/fed-funds-rate)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if the most recent [effective federal funds rate](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr) on December 31, 2024 is less than 4%.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20789, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735666605.625802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735666605.625802, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028323832029579308 ], "histogram": [ [ 18.407901016766726, 9.968671188663818, 3.395304192079664, 2.5792651442419676, 0.6058181580701529, 0.7945000634797645, 0.6588895492870765, 0.31684130172249936, 0.2782380226146087, 0.6152831438721093, 0.5977773085591238, 0.3652227668424864, 0.019899549189044026, 0.0, 0.04151459580717334, 0.1437768540610367, 5.058726107524316e-05, 3.6149181949977683e-07, 0.0014710716285334274, 6.577215357800102e-07, 0.03489005376449119, 0.1820540202086744, 1.8143757878210448e-05, 4.364488845899094e-09, 0.0014197956302216025, 0.009675507942134325, 0.2270668033854753, 0.0022344536309861804, 0.0023118104047486383, 0.0, 0.017688181433735302, 0.0061710551608561235, 0.0037086117833960114, 0.007622578083467559, 0.0006903669897807637, 0.004519311525133678, 1.0373454355888917e-05, 1.3270099816053902e-05, 0.0020858205192201386, 0.00030547385461104177, 0.020690655648420576, 4.046059681700419e-06, 0.0005105048216997965, 1.766220435110205e-05, 0.0009560798541365372, 0.14696301229439257, 0.0, 0.002425422244479435, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015304573872942429, 0.005327037359942586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038675085998017843, 0.0014163074513440133, 7.335875331504489e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004538885001603397, 0.0005879378674190039, 3.834535660398168e-06, 0.004135890600298942, 0.000761879591579358, 0.0007871296877650757, 5.5385217686948206e-05, 2.4567092872210336e-05, 0.00022118090738421293, 2.5817102929673814e-05, 0.0036568795700798067, 0.0004694361239615697, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002140166933997748, 0.006847890590874138, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0031375473154372823, 1.6487236886208637e-06, 0.0007203677285530406, 0.0, 0.00021231857392401652, 0.0, 3.904984053390552e-08, 0.0, 6.406041750807859e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000740208071402781, 0.31024603650199495, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005596897304739651 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.41298144224831, "peer_score": 37.99932419663855, "coverage": 0.9998549297632344, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998549297632344, "spot_peer_score": 22.70047414020972, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 77.41298144224831, "peer_archived_score": 37.99932419663855, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.70047414020972, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289059.277714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 419, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289059.277714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 419, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9949671832490073, 0.005032816750992614 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1142, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Federal Funds Rate (FFR)](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_funds_rate) is the interest rate at which U.S. depository institutions lend reserve balances to each other overnight. It's a crucial benchmark in financial markets and influences a wide range of market interest rates. As of December 2023, the target FFR is [between 5.25% and 5.50%](https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/effr). The Federal Open Market Committee sets the target range for the FFR, impacting employment and inflation in the U.S. economy. Changes in the FFR directly influence borrowing costs for consumers, businesses, and the government, thereby affecting [overall economic activity and inflation](https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/fed-funds-rate)" }, { "id": 20786, "title": "Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?", "short_title": "Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?", "url_title": "Trump Felony Conviction Before Election?", "slug": "trump-felony-conviction-before-election", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T17:34:16.960668Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.012076Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 106, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 919, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20786, "title": "Will Donald Trump be convicted of a felony before the 2024 presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T17:34:16.960668Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-04T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-30T21:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Former President Donald Trump [has been charged with 91 felony counts](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/) in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is [scheduled to go to trial in March 2024](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/27/trump-2024-presidential-election-legal-trials). The trial most likely to go to court last is the Georgia election interference case, which does not yet have a scheduled court date, but Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis [has requested an August 2024 trial date](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/22/when-trump-trials-2024-schedule/71637316007/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, any court in the United States convicts Donald Trump of committing a felony.", "fine_print": "* It resolves as **Yes** upon conviction by any US court, the outcome of later appeals or legal proceedings is immaterial.\n* Any felony conviction is sufficient, it need to not be related to an existing indictment.\n* This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required.", "post_id": 20786, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717103708.064452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717103708.064452, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.64 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.36, 0.64 ], "means": [ 0.6367730601064924 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.952879374610986e-05, 2.900430408296273, 0.0004738480193012689, 0.0003711374723407117, 2.3690198813555667e-08, 0.005157327254581107, 0.047498974715510574, 0.03985455184782245, 0.0, 0.0785852960804116, 0.373483994158978, 0.0003407403450560245, 0.051353333553562266, 1.7146208770882558e-05, 0.25552149065248186, 0.4745325007679022, 0.017537378226485503, 0.04978942172593233, 0.0010394360524149358, 0.0012963013181953574, 0.97725011145015, 0.0014565242593933755, 0.0009022422773862228, 0.04643770288016776, 0.2776140525115761, 0.9179713951773139, 0.003906388609802656, 0.014258431842228338, 0.16532146944805057, 0.0, 1.2983012805593066, 0.09920914903890135, 0.0035659777007848396, 0.36932470441897075, 0.014809388391155882, 0.16929125302696135, 0.058339304238704856, 0.00018564248681347858, 0.6106314813699001, 0.14922306664180882, 1.2725562779000974, 0.42809738967464284, 0.0015258677928297847, 0.0001036286611807042, 0.14817403880765218, 2.7873339418237353, 0.11530379689425027, 0.2966795272557352, 0.11458609069479375, 0.6846414846602309, 3.3794848058922837, 0.6786979987272623, 0.8170912403057262, 0.027270198800408662, 1.0687912232421468, 1.722712984746651, 2.271457140717552, 1.269395471402779, 0.0, 0.003086397377447261, 1.7895205356835704, 0.8110022190438969, 0.3140625808857805, 0.13362704176323825, 1.1288985816820534, 1.1875673073413382, 0.16794438817063534, 0.8449916049187329, 1.6560892822808393, 0.1744549203238152, 2.4125774435195018, 0.5789414215136346, 2.848366442425179e-11, 0.2667804585817271, 0.0680339866369346, 0.5107037073373724, 0.009705444099690867, 0.05993525527522104, 0.0002678140303497757, 0.0031269251143317286, 2.1373291496002387, 0.29684105927980825, 1.879165914653348e-08, 0.0, 0.002207837839734179, 1.2501326438090121, 0.0, 0.20051921282223897, 1.1436962403225517e-09, 0.0001372725286611448, 2.273246731742481, 0.9057780321935424, 1.042499853575832, 0.0001405049777245914, 0.00018120352145852678, 0.001597557314385858, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 12.43908410747633 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.479018043675335, "coverage": 0.48773335246572636, "baseline_score": -3.3104608674105873, "spot_peer_score": 18.634039563128358, "peer_archived_score": 21.479018043675335, "baseline_archived_score": -3.3104608674105873, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.634039563128358 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1717103719.668838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1717103719.668838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 922, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.38730474498487655, 0.6126952550151235 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 41, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1802, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Former President Donald Trump [has been charged with 91 felony counts](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/) in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is [scheduled to go to trial in March 2024](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/27/trump-2024-presidential-election-legal-trials). The trial most likely to go to court last is the Georgia election interference case, which does not yet have a scheduled court date, but Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis [has requested an August 2024 trial date](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/11/22/when-trump-trials-2024-schedule/71637316007/)." }, { "id": 20785, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?", "short_title": "Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?", "url_title": "Starship Booster Tower Catch Attempt in 2024?", "slug": "starship-booster-tower-catch-attempt-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T16:42:24.316183Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.968556Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": 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"exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20785, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T16:42:24.316183Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-13T12:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-13T12:33:57.361231Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-10-13T12:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with [the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video).", "fine_print": "* A catch attempt will be considered one where the Super Heavy booster makes contact with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where it approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* The catch attempt need not occur as part of an integrated flight test (where the second stage is stacked on top of the booster). However, the booster must reach an altitude of at least 10 kilometers before attempting a landing to qualify.", "post_id": 20785, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728822821.539888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728822821.539888, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.92 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.778215970748573 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.920803189601554e-05, 0.01347575193164291, 0.0, 0.07262876966143585, 0.0050696958928345736, 0.005153667139516488, 0.18935013248243068, 0.0631375798964869, 3.4757381556571094e-05, 0.004545486058021435, 0.006515326947011495, 5.260537436513615e-07, 0.19569060478963568, 0.0, 0.0002523740818178671, 0.2485059234544814, 0.0, 0.004082266992493693, 0.0027361813983366513, 3.190667852371335e-07, 0.02179055196357011, 0.0024502609206985136, 0.001784029021981204, 0.005618634579589222, 0.00661790718677103, 0.004384386790893955, 4.8593638926855346e-06, 0.0014431279564932377, 0.0029701684460293836, 0.0, 0.013687613009743938, 0.00018503365096048569, 0.0004001178069303514, 7.802224878455235e-05, 2.352539022799322e-07, 0.021030635931590484, 0.0016291952054923562, 0.0005538735987774979, 3.124846987710643e-05, 0.00015112127842158607, 1.0310435333733956, 0.0, 1.1218120934509955e-05, 4.879865118504405e-05, 0.0, 0.044935758720288856, 0.10132199250355511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.736594939130878, 0.0002046112755361794, 0.0001130868232805735, 0.00016806093462351474, 0.01551382865414555, 0.6664975585033204, 0.0, 0.2787793271815238, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0214681036295152, 6.885666483349416e-06, 0.5348456904420972, 0.0075512877498316155, 0.4122733840096815, 1.2812670519233893, 1.3813586203254808, 0.2748386647995793, 0.20889053985864084, 0.0652959956086753, 2.3051308021615693, 0.023633064899022987, 0.0069796119822310865, 0.8133964473341271, 0.0007808333855997817, 4.1612177897065905, 0.2546706595982053, 0.23096461279080194, 0.1928445500484313, 0.05579625505501556, 3.1904747712494945, 0.7588995593124301, 0.332385799706009, 0.12784984317735, 0.417023183126016, 1.9891700112889128, 0.08370738689354898, 0.15851271242021703, 1.0056457607875533, 0.184501413751365, 4.13359798406694, 0.10654520499421168, 0.5556000109705828, 0.2787051160794052, 0.0, 2.653966015062132, 0.9373994550983956, 0.1540803015108922, 1.5537932027476598, 4.647710150032032 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -13.553827224625232, "peer_score": 33.20377658720394, "coverage": 0.7826440595181628, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998521386318366, "spot_peer_score": -0.7770651006583396, "baseline_archived_score": -13.553827224625232, "peer_archived_score": 33.20377658720394, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -0.7770651006583396 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288792.824338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288792.824338, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.41065195168718405, 0.589348048312816 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1292, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year." }, { "id": 20784, "title": "Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?", "short_title": "US Refugee Admissions Above 100k in FY 2024?", "url_title": "US Refugee Admissions Above 100k in FY 2024?", "slug": "us-refugee-admissions-above-100k-in-fy-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T15:53:53.667240Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.541343Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 416, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20784, "title": "Will US refugee admissions exceed 100,000 in fiscal year 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T15:53:53.667240Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-06T11:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-30T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The refugee admissions cap was [set to a historic low](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/us-refugee-cap-fy21/index.html) of 15,000 for fiscal year 2021 by the Trump administration, following a steadily declining admissions cap after Trump took office. The Biden administration raised the cap for FY 2021 to 62,500 but [fell far short of that number](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/biden-administration-falls-short-of-fiscal-year-2021-us-refugee-admissions-cap-.html) with 11,411 refugees admitted in FY 2021. The Biden administration raised the cap to 125,000 in fiscal year 2022 and the cap has remained there since, however actual refugee admissions have been slow to increase, reaching 60,014 in FY 2023.\n\nDescribing the reasons actual refugee admissions remained low in 2021, [Vox reported](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22777209/immigration-refugee-cap-biden-afghan-resettlement):\n\n>There are legitimate reasons why the recent resettlement numbers are so low. The US government and refugee agencies have been primarily focused on resettling Afghans who fled their home country amid the US withdrawal. And the entire refugee apparatus — from the federal officials who assess refugee claims to the agencies that help with resettlement — shrank significantly during the Trump administration due to severe funding cuts.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Since agencies’ federal funding is tied to the refugee cap, many saw their budgets decrease significantly under Trump, forcing them to dramatically scale back their operations. Soerens said that World Relief closed eight of its offices over the past five years, some of which had been operating since the 1970s. That involved laying off personnel, many of whom had decades in institutional knowledge.\n\nThe US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC), within the US Department of State, reports refugee admission figures. According to their data, the US has not admitted over 100,000 refugees in a single fiscal year since 1994. See the charts below summarizing this data (see [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/us-refugee-admissions.html) for code used to generate the charts).\n\n\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in fiscal year 2024, refugee admissions to the United States exceed 100,000 according to data published by the US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC). Note that this question asks for US fiscal year 2024 admissions, which runs from October 2023 to September 2024, not calendar year admissions.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20784, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727577259.544569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 413, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727577259.544569, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 413, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.05603999332336402 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.719110607140538, 18.032225360553237, 2.391648264331838, 2.040059808673353, 0.0, 2.4979958898990366, 0.41232131817164586, 1.3448525259397615, 0.24992836763822218, 0.16249811521204624, 0.5202426574900713, 0.0004128454092742762, 0.15622719376056987, 0.05207641774848474, 0.00690971186798436, 0.20719651585262022, 0.08300128159616812, 0.05295082724208146, 0.000978641665534787, 0.14516560366448142, 0.27385453967683326, 0.005062847760901468, 0.060750135581705764, 0.1122921740396933, 8.613779280062138e-06, 0.21196882949184087, 0.0, 0.0012160791889474346, 0.034160531481196035, 0.0, 0.03333591620153929, 0.005216741740683968, 0.024498247194671273, 0.42831810912089824, 0.011657520102631177, 0.3982836576990203, 0.013091821681844891, 0.0, 0.05882409831653773, 0.0015412818778781166, 0.0934222816973038, 0.026015326538982773, 0.09369637109308848, 1.307125136097481e-07, 0.04002292238032435, 0.010117098545887425, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007409892914200024, 0.0, 0.08587616322430153, 0.001161850290478353, 0.0, 0.003156984429932919, 0.00010741321677830989, 0.03372388313551229, 0.021642398414748788, 0.014121977195748089, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06493445432258285, 0.0, 0.0006719423211824029, 0.00018103811352554176, 0.00029803251902017823, 0.023988881827293418, 0.020060283461279572, 0.008759810962809271, 0.0004650848052015298, 0.0009302718194135883, 0.027155460867673828, 1.0518469820013862e-06, 0.015027311958259239, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021429895336298056, 0.01753457142508031, 0.013267989224809467, 0.0, 0.5933597031972628, 0.003339467049458565, 0.0006864366460169767, 1.3171089012093366e-06, 0.0, 0.10335323613059735, 0.0031829362005209596, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015244180003836762, 0.0, 5.89160983128439e-05, 0.0, 3.5273855925935495e-08, 0.004506943441340837, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03472499159142741 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -33.87155724729482, "coverage": 0.9998707105512461, "baseline_score": -162.09964039687603, "spot_peer_score": 34.113491457152705, "peer_archived_score": -33.87155724729482, "baseline_archived_score": -162.09964039687603, "spot_peer_archived_score": 34.113491457152705 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1727684027.467606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 416, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1727684027.467606, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 416, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9982126739074101, 0.001787326092589946 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 20, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1015, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The refugee admissions cap was [set to a historic low](https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/01/politics/us-refugee-cap-fy21/index.html) of 15,000 for fiscal year 2021 by the Trump administration, following a steadily declining admissions cap after Trump took office. The Biden administration raised the cap for FY 2021 to 62,500 but [fell far short of that number](https://www.cnbc.com/2021/10/08/biden-administration-falls-short-of-fiscal-year-2021-us-refugee-admissions-cap-.html) with 11,411 refugees admitted in FY 2021. The Biden administration raised the cap to 125,000 in fiscal year 2022 and the cap has remained there since, however actual refugee admissions have been slow to increase, reaching 60,014 in FY 2023.\n\nDescribing the reasons actual refugee admissions remained low in 2021, [Vox reported](https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22777209/immigration-refugee-cap-biden-afghan-resettlement):\n\n>There are legitimate reasons why the recent resettlement numbers are so low. The US government and refugee agencies have been primarily focused on resettling Afghans who fled their home country amid the US withdrawal. And the entire refugee apparatus — from the federal officials who assess refugee claims to the agencies that help with resettlement — shrank significantly during the Trump administration due to severe funding cuts.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>Since agencies’ federal funding is tied to the refugee cap, many saw their budgets decrease significantly under Trump, forcing them to dramatically scale back their operations. Soerens said that World Relief closed eight of its offices over the past five years, some of which had been operating since the 1970s. That involved laying off personnel, many of whom had decades in institutional knowledge.\n\nThe US [Refugee Processing Center](https://www.wrapsnet.org/admissions-and-arrivals/) (RPC), within the US Department of State, reports refugee admission figures. According to their data, the US has not admitted over 100,000 refugees in a single fiscal year since 1994. See the charts below summarizing this data (see [here](https://www.ryanbeckauthor.com/forecasting/us-refugee-admissions.html) for code used to generate the charts).\n\n\n\n" }, { "id": 20783, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?", "short_title": "Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?", "url_title": "Khamenei Out as Leader of Iran in 2024?", "slug": "khamenei-out-as-leader-of-iran-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T06:15:09.086198Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.429989Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 509, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20783, "title": "Will Ali Khamenei cease to be supreme leader of Iran in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T06:15:09.086198Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:53:30.478611Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Ali Khamenei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei) has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Ali Khamenei in 1989. Ali Khamenei [has yet to publicly name a successor](https://agsiw.org/khameneis-succession-dilemma-to-name-or-not-to-name-a-successor-designate/).\n\nIn late 2022 and early 2023, [large scale protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) and unrest took place in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the hijab law. The protests [had largely ended](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irans-protests-crushed-mahsa-aminis-death-still-felt-year-later-world-rcna105003) after the spring of 2023.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that Ali Khamenei has ceased to be the Supreme Leader of Iran for any reason.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, Khamenei must either formally cease to be the Supreme Leader or be deposed, including fleeing the country or being held captive by an opposing group. Withdrawal from duties, for example due to health issues, is not sufficient.", "post_id": 20783, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671872.998994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671872.998994, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 506, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025363075335513338 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.03885745601077, 8.70414130359359, 6.080681181946707, 3.3766530424546097, 0.4519226063564781, 0.7861125202143749, 0.9592668969836218, 0.7068775092802838, 0.2430233754781657, 0.26149441468820855, 0.8836496460952888, 0.015647862944874677, 0.17470447127484104, 0.03333631436312952, 0.2886462403193289, 0.41049496536752844, 0.00033260479552867333, 0.006054219655868677, 0.018159875776183918, 0.007544642345764429, 0.473783822912654, 0.00048645069341422614, 0.005102506474156546, 0.0, 0.00032038871888610734, 0.17784999652318176, 0.006922176793584388, 0.0, 2.8384880300492336e-05, 0.0, 0.03444743215679123, 8.8804061250438e-06, 0.017306135358450866, 0.0, 3.029792797858939e-07, 0.004020319034391808, 9.826682215964852e-05, 2.8865911855125186e-05, 0.0, 0.22437337780110383, 0.0070865407374598776, 0.0, 0.00943342577472276, 0.0008806776194860962, 0.0023998090069086574, 0.003176339389048804, 0.0, 7.821579505575006e-05, 2.9478289411232336e-05, 0.00011414558151974165, 0.0006877072187979943, 3.135652729370098e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 7.361916053586038e-06, 0.0005269797651056701, 4.1394864652051245e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016091239891310974, 0.015124511990436634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0010177659730008475, 0.0006564797669964929, 0.0006351192331343376, 0.0, 0.005045167126087157, 0.001292278809748648, 1.329942793747989e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00132516083308446, 9.732958890028824e-06, 0.0, 9.616284650433976e-10, 4.34905406291597e-06, 9.558243084379225e-05, 3.404293136469377e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014652574242574928, 0.0, 0.00013735067243351973, 0.0, 6.968010105949462e-05, 0.00019774047192312023, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021500403421726166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02368541701161333 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.28128127866854, "peer_score": 25.162904009261634, "coverage": 0.9999000864439973, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999000864439973, "spot_peer_score": 21.943726282190987, "spot_baseline_score": 78.24085649273731, "baseline_archived_score": 89.28128127866854, "peer_archived_score": 25.162904009261634, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.943726282190987, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 78.24085649273731 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287968.516829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287968.516829, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9883204937949414, 0.011679506205058669 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1135, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Ali Khamenei](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei) has been Supreme Leader of Iran since 1989. His predecessor, Ruhollah Khomeini, the first Supreme Leader of Iran, had formally selected a successor in 1985, four years before his death in 1989. However, after falling out with his chosen successor he selected Ali Khamenei in 1989. Ali Khamenei [has yet to publicly name a successor](https://agsiw.org/khameneis-succession-dilemma-to-name-or-not-to-name-a-successor-designate/).\n\nIn late 2022 and early 2023, [large scale protests](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahsa_Amini_protests) and unrest took place in Iran, sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini in police custody after she was arrested for violating the hijab law. The protests [had largely ended](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/irans-protests-crushed-mahsa-aminis-death-still-felt-year-later-world-rcna105003) after the spring of 2023." }, { "id": 20781, "title": "Will X declare bankruptcy in 2024?", "short_title": "X bankruptcy in 2024?", "url_title": "X bankruptcy in 2024?", "slug": "x-bankruptcy-in-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:41:26.193339Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.741983Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 25, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 786, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { 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"default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since Elon Musk concluded his purchase of Twitter on [October 22nd, 2023](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acquisition_of_Twitter_by_Elon_Musk), the company (now rebranded to \"X\") has had its fair share of scandals, such as the [removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-elon-musk) of blue checkmarks from legacy users and [ad boycotts](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981928/elon-musk-ad-boycott-go-fuck-yourself-destroy-x) that have significantly hurt the company financially.\n\nFurthermore, in November 2022, Musk [told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), \"You won’t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don’t have that rolled out by the end of next year.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if credible sources announce that X has declared bankruptcy before January 1st, 2025.", "fine_print": "* X will be considered to have filed for bankruptcy if X Corp. or a parent company files for bankruptcy, including [Chapter 7 (liquidation) or Chapter 11 (reorganization)](https://www.uscourts.gov/services-forms/bankruptcy/bankruptcy-basics) bankruptcy.\n * This includes companies that merge with or acquire [X Corp.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/X_Corp.), for example if X Corp. merges with another company and the merged company later declares bankruptcy, or if a company acquires X Corp. and the acquiring company later declares bankruptcy.\n* If X Corp. changes its name or its structure (for example by selling off a portion of the company but continuing to operate as X Corp.) this question will resolve according to the company that controls the social media platform currently known as X.", "post_id": 20781, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654600.390361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 782, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654600.390361, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 782, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.01247254032497579 ], "histogram": [ [ 39.536162084177434, 10.701663681615967, 1.6317501160494343, 0.36010383908470667, 0.3069306889450739, 0.7250709015760934, 0.24195147274610956, 0.010791424091503816, 0.03067986266999461, 0.0004269387243415572, 0.09270000934057056, 0.007513101242342138, 0.002217933814726755, 0.004171919757477705, 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[removal](https://www.theverge.com/2023/4/20/23690820/twitter-verified-blue-checkmark-legacy-elon-musk) of blue checkmarks from legacy users and [ad boycotts](https://www.theverge.com/2023/11/29/23981928/elon-musk-ad-boycott-go-fuck-yourself-destroy-x) that have significantly hurt the company financially.\n\nFurthermore, in November 2022, Musk [told](https://www.reuters.com/technology/musk-tells-twitter-staff-bankruptcy-isnt-out-question-platformer-2022-11-10/) his employees that bankruptcy is not out of the question. Still, Musk has [mentioned](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024) ambitious plans for turning X into more than just a social media app; he also aims for it to be a financial app, with updates expected in 2024. Musk [remarked](https://www.theverge.com/2023/10/26/23934216/x-twitter-bank-elon-musk-2024), \"You won’t need a bank account... it would blow my mind if we don’t have that rolled out by the end of next year.\"" }, { "id": 20780, "title": "Will a member of the United States Congress introduce legislation limiting the use of LLMs in 2024?", "short_title": "Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced in 2024?", "url_title": "Legislation Limiting LLMs Introduced in 2024?", "slug": "legislation-limiting-llms-introduced-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:40:36.171922Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.897591Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 26, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-19T16:40:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T04:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Specific legislation limiting LLMs has not been introduced in the U.S. Congress as of now. However, the ongoing discussions and emerging concerns in various sectors, including healthcare, indicate a growing awareness and potential for legislative action in the near future. \n\nNote: There is no formal definition for LLMs, though [one article](https://towardsdatascience.com/how-to-speed-up-training-for-large-language-models-81ffb30c36b2) describes them as follows:\n\n>Typically, a large language model contains more than 100 billion parameters and is trained using advanced algorithms on a large corpus.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, a bill is introduced in either the US House or US Senate which would impose one of the following restrictions on large language models or products using large language models.\n\n* Forbids their creation\n* Sets limits on how they're trained, for example by limiting access to previously usable training data or by setting limits on the number of parameters they may be trained with.\n* Prevents their use for certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.\n* Restricts the ability of US citizens to use foreign LLM-based products or restricts US operated LLM products or businesses from being sold to foreign customers or entities.\n * The export restriction must be specific, and not universally applied to all exports or exports of a broad industry. For example, a blanket ban on exports to a specific country would not qualify, and neither would a blanket ban on allowing the purchase of US businesses by investors in a specific country. Introducing a ban that specifically limits the export of artificial intelligence or machine learning software to a specific country or a broad number of countries would qualify if it was known to apply to LLM products.\n * An introduced bill specifically classifying artificial intelligence software or machine learning models such that they would newly qualify for existing export bans would qualify.\n\nResolution will be determined according to reporting from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) and keyword searches of [GovTrack.us](GovTrack.us).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20780, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1714983791.96496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1714983791.96496, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 499, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.38 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5194917881963665 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.00023153325020706255, 0.8072347376970441, 0.00034032558035140294, 0.0, 1.7410855452264272e-08, 0.01571903396805869, 0.00233572778556613, 0.10143175571066464, 9.500214638746931e-05, 0.0, 0.5249423679684928, 0.97991934937665, 0.03961857537341362, 0.00017277617754778943, 0.001248475513477419, 0.02164099855155071, 0.7086995574246804, 7.377631287678543e-08, 8.055955327762718e-07, 0.0, 0.7547254029252004, 0.0, 0.00020718437862913313, 0.00906698200363623, 1.1988142098326032e-05, 2.021507019923487, 0.03891290588488613, 0.001713535109052426, 0.00574685004285843, 0.0, 0.8498359644859235, 0.37375626210334073, 0.003494953826906632, 0.42652925730007424, 1.5242074412004816e-06, 1.0290216793537839, 0.40912165163666503, 1.66574369285824, 0.008496551960321737, 0.8938680294270386, 0.4023400612453434, 0.0, 0.11791666422036053, 0.11283582474766707, 1.141415882065279, 0.7274397389406035, 0.5418603750773174, 0.029721037496250005, 0.0, 0.0015104791117476646, 1.4117499884787081, 0.14814492414630714, 0.8479152197109382, 2.119531702335497, 0.5939954174278094, 1.3130519980371895, 3.955570089370579, 0.3082260470611484, 0.0, 0.061081454228606696, 4.40553492028827, 0.2389921157290261, 0.7667383026726838, 0.0014356537356469468, 0.2386743561473041, 2.106808879085374, 1.5667908532051167, 1.7074687107037865, 0.094136224220922, 0.0, 0.42747183395674804, 0.17737707628732918, 0.015847731628833704, 0.022450040989423204, 0.22952851285839063, 1.601860528824744, 0.1053204986468749, 0.04142483509185396, 0.8549484744804791, 0.13786837605310112, 0.7625317990353875, 0.7129799887398955, 0.013078888576278046, 2.4092547612896383e-05, 4.380674264799545e-06, 0.22972998155604807, 0.03942595608808022, 4.8772182469933375e-05, 4.063004521956243e-05, 0.0, 0.17962038744988432, 0.0003563372457279551, 2.2357611007951795e-06, 4.037238235496935e-07, 0.40071783056210564, 0.17429065990953752, 0.002894598447887306, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3923567304904797 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.44631551476178, "coverage": 0.21411873924047198, "baseline_score": 5.456206912288894, "spot_peer_score": 31.403573975014034, "peer_archived_score": 6.44631551476178, "baseline_archived_score": 5.456206912288894, "spot_peer_archived_score": 31.403573975014034 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1710834433.834584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1710834433.834584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 479, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8280744726791918, 0.17192552732080824 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Specific legislation limiting LLMs has not been introduced in the U.S. Congress as of now. 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election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election) is scheduled to take place on November 5, 2024. Parties will select their candidates in 2024. The current front runners for the Democratic Party and Republican party are [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/) and [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/), respectively.\n\nPrior to the 2020 presidential election, [two of the three scheduled debates took place between Trump and Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates). The second scheduled debate was cancelled after Trump contracted COVID-19 and refused a proposal for the debate to take place virtually. As of December 21, 2023, Donald Trump [has not participated](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/donald-trump-nikki-haleys-gop-debate-takeaways/71839179007/) in any of the Republican primary debates, and was ineligible to participate due to [not signing the loyalty pledge](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4148039-heres-where-2024-republicans-stand-on-the-rncs-loyalty-pledge/) to support the eventual nominee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before November 5, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump participate in a live debate for presidential candidates, including a virtual debate.", "fine_print": "* A live debate means both candidates must be debating live, responding to one another in real time. 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Parties will select their candidates in 2024. The current front runners for the Democratic Party and Republican party are [Joe Biden](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/) and [Donald Trump](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/), respectively.\n\nPrior to the 2020 presidential election, [two of the three scheduled debates took place between Trump and Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_presidential_debates). The second scheduled debate was cancelled after Trump contracted COVID-19 and refused a proposal for the debate to take place virtually. As of December 21, 2023, Donald Trump [has not participated](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2023/12/18/donald-trump-nikki-haleys-gop-debate-takeaways/71839179007/) in any of the Republican primary debates, and was ineligible to participate due to [not signing the loyalty pledge](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4148039-heres-where-2024-republicans-stand-on-the-rncs-loyalty-pledge/) to support the eventual nominee." }, { "id": 20776, "title": "Will cannabis be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substance Act before 2025?", "short_title": "Cannabis Removed From US Schedule I by 2025?", "url_title": "Cannabis Removed From US Schedule I by 2025?", "slug": "cannabis-removed-from-us-schedule-i-by-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T05:00:08.123078Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.602421Z", "curation_status": "approved", 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Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.\n\nWill this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if, before January 1, 2025, marijuana is officially classified as something other than a schedule I drug in the US. If it is later reclassified as a schedule I drug, the question still resolves Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20776, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735626327.625906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 540, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735626327.625906, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 540, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.06040880721397679 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.94735126564399, 7.015462146115882, 1.5533407974376967, 2.450097935503493, 2.1395756507463712, 3.743838215451107, 1.1704558141941006, 0.39903548668389555, 0.42614165596394726, 0.432873361261644, 0.5276830331290778, 0.17339663243167036, 0.31240173798340115, 0.15488483066158942, 0.1748697144263303, 0.7407460485079874, 0.10518418125448983, 0.15202027097893056, 0.06681896992746128, 1.3832071513586153e-06, 0.19356039234965589, 0.0021185430532508352, 0.05902972938367169, 0.0, 2.6377211038522678e-06, 0.05016253610261758, 0.04908746156829147, 0.0021970113738080423, 0.08073960198907151, 0.0, 0.040199758618962744, 0.0012580340784104018, 0.1709371036395805, 0.04385454721584218, 0.027613843482245694, 0.032328394417630954, 0.05468098457549677, 1.368606247552607e-09, 0.00174692406555169, 0.0, 0.09962233608522615, 0.0002387577569182164, 1.6068621286598698e-08, 0.029753242720308853, 0.013769125791935625, 0.09583882801992502, 0.0, 0.021336589157193667, 0.0004187337659302756, 0.03164310497852206, 0.7116678653371693, 0.008474100433829799, 0.0, 0.01603587462302694, 0.0023127138388373157, 0.03175292624294459, 0.018269614379527968, 0.4359338622052054, 0.0, 0.003687863489700647, 0.09040143431261215, 0.0, 2.5073514343626425e-06, 0.027570266908955154, 0.0034331735042219774, 0.035758466315694966, 0.0261784885266984, 0.15636105304816678, 0.01646079793755455, 0.02747783210569301, 0.000983612840031833, 0.03433188850179865, 1.4909016045904159e-05, 0.0013272417645615964, 0.0, 0.09210302445959537, 0.03384935502109052, 0.004379687650717187, 0.0, 0.0001290845140867805, 0.03593454459961837, 0.01720848948479715, 5.302333396330768e-06, 0.004247132444920166, 0.0068083022911782235, 0.024534255061072967, 0.0, 0.01521701310271471, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17409552258436517, 0.008335898802436553, 0.00028262746547326733, 0.0, 0.005771872329684744, 0.0, 0.0, 2.1259174443582077e-07, 0.0, 0.11793700203023263 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 10.799935290149264, "peer_score": 10.442013286763434, "coverage": 0.9998796345552381, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998796345552381, "spot_peer_score": 14.89030214919003, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 10.799935290149264, "peer_archived_score": 10.442013286763434, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.89030214919003, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287750.437895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 517, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287750.437895, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 517, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.967137721903711, 0.03286227809628909 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1592, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the end of 2023, the legal landscape for cannabis in the United States has undergone significant changes, marking a departure from previous years. Recreational marijuana is now legal in 24 states and the District of Columbia. This represents a substantial increase from the earlier status when it was legal in only 9 states and DC. Additionally, medical marijuana has been legalized in 40 states and the District of Columbia.\n\nWill this changing landscape at the state level influence federal policy? The Schedule I classification, as defined by the Controlled Substances Act, is reserved for substances with a high potential for abuse, no currently accepted medical use in treatment in the United States, and a lack of accepted safety for use under medical supervision. Given the growing acceptance and legalization of cannabis at the state level, there is increasing debate and speculation about potential changes to its federal classification." }, { "id": 20775, "title": "Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?", "short_title": "Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?", "url_title": "Starship Reaches Orbit in 2024?", "slug": "starship-reaches-orbit-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:59:29.243999Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.338685Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 93, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 726, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20775, "title": "Will SpaceX's Starship reach orbit in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:59:29.243999Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-10T12:50:13.243891Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. [SpaceX describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration. The first test reached an altitude of 39 kilometers before exploding prior to stage separation, and also causing significant pad damage during liftoff that slowed progress toward the second test launch. The second launch achieved stage separation and reached an altitude of roughly 150 kilometers, though both the booster and second stage were destroyed in flight due to anomalies.\n\nNote that both the [first](https://spacenews.com/starship-lifts-off-on-first-integrated-test-flight-breaks-apart-minutes-later/#:~:text=This%20test%20flight%20was%20not%20designed%20to%20reach%20orbit%20but%20instead%20send%20Starship%20on%20a%20long%20suborbital%20trajectory%2C%20splashing%20down%20near%20Hawaii%2090%20minutes%20after%20liftoff.) and [second](https://spacelaunchnow.me/launch/starship-integrated-flight-test-2/#:~:text=The%20second%20stage%20will%20follow%20a%20suborbital%20trajectory%20and%20perform%20an%20unpowered%20splashdown%20approximately%20100%20km%20off%20the%20northwest%20coast%20of%20Kauai%20(Hawaii).) integrated flight tests were suborbital trajectories.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in the calendar year 2024, SpaceX's Starship reaches orbit. Note that \"orbit\" is often used in a loose manner but this question has a specific definition of orbit in the fine print below.", "fine_print": "Reaching orbit does not require that a spacecraft complete a full orbit. A spacecraft will be considered to have reached orbit if it successfully reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers above the Earth (the [Kármán line](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/K%C3%A1rm%C3%A1n_line)) without breaking up **AND** for any period of time while at an altitude of 100 kilometers or more achieves at least one of the following (such as before intentionally deorbiting): \n\n* A trajectory with an altitude at [perigee](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/perigee) of at least 100 kilometers above the Earth.\n* [Escape velocity](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Escape_velocity).\n* A trajectory with an altitude at [apogee](https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/apogee) of at least 300,000 kilometers above the Earth.\n\nReports from [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) that Starship achieved orbit are sufficient unless there is reason to believe that the source is using the term \"orbit\" colloquially or that the above criteria were not met.", 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two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. [SpaceX describes Starship](https://www.spacex.com/vehicles/starship/) as \"the world’s most powerful launch vehicle ever developed, capable of carrying up to 150 metric tonnes fully reusable and 250 metric tonnes expendable.\"\n\nSo far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration. The first test reached an altitude of 39 kilometers before exploding prior to stage separation, and also causing significant pad damage during liftoff that slowed progress toward the second test launch. The second launch achieved stage separation and reached an altitude of roughly 150 kilometers, though both the booster and second stage were destroyed in flight due to anomalies.\n\nNote that both the [first](https://spacenews.com/starship-lifts-off-on-first-integrated-test-flight-breaks-apart-minutes-later/#:~:text=This%20test%20flight%20was%20not%20designed%20to%20reach%20orbit%20but%20instead%20send%20Starship%20on%20a%20long%20suborbital%20trajectory%2C%20splashing%20down%20near%20Hawaii%2090%20minutes%20after%20liftoff.) and [second](https://spacelaunchnow.me/launch/starship-integrated-flight-test-2/#:~:text=The%20second%20stage%20will%20follow%20a%20suborbital%20trajectory%20and%20perform%20an%20unpowered%20splashdown%20approximately%20100%20km%20off%20the%20northwest%20coast%20of%20Kauai%20(Hawaii).) integrated flight tests were suborbital trajectories." }, { "id": 20774, "title": "Will there be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?", "short_title": "US Government 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be a US government shutdown before January 1, 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:56:27.603002Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T05:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-04T01:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-04T01:17:24.926818Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:\n\n>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. \n>\n>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nThe History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that at least some portions of the US federal government have ceased some operations or undergone \"shutdown\" as the result of a funding gap or missed funding deadline. For the purposes of this question a qualifying shutdown must result in a [shutdown furlough](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/) of some federal employees (for example, the [brief February 9, 2018](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/02/08/trump-administration-advises-federal-agencies-prepare-limited-government-shutdown/321883002/) shutdown would not count).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20774, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.35124836271963, "peer_score": 35.49208841410847, "coverage": 0.9999304949336988, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999304949336988, "spot_peer_score": 26.169364867560304, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 85.35124836271963, "peer_archived_score": 35.49208841410847, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 26.169364867560304, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289316.001748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 593, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289316.001748, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 593, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9951627017642284, 0.004837298235771601 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1734, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In its article [Q&A: Everything You Should Know About Government Shutdowns](https://www.crfb.org/papers/qa-everything-you-should-know-about-government-shutdowns) the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget describes government shutdowns as follows:\n\n>Many federal government agencies and programs rely on annual funding appropriations passed by Congress. Every year, Congress must pass, and the President must sign budget legislation for the next fiscal year, consisting of 12 appropriations bills, one for each Appropriations subcommittee. Congress has not yet enacted any of the 12 bills for FY 2023 that make up the discretionary spending budget and has instead been funding the government through a CR that was enacted at the end of September. In a “shutdown,” federal agencies must discontinue all non-essential discretionary functions until new funding legislation is passed and signed into law. Essential services continue to function, as do mandatory spending programs.\n\n>. . .\n\n>Since Congress introduced the modern budget process in 1976, there have been 20 “funding gaps,” including the 2018-2019 shutdown and the one in January 2018, when funds were not appropriated for at least one day. (The hours-long lapse in appropriations in February 2018, though sometimes characterized as a shutdown, did not result in federal employee furloughs.) However, before 1980, the government did not shut down but rather continued normal operations through six funding gaps. Since 1981, 10 funding gaps of three days or fewer have occurred, mostly over a weekend when government operations were only minimally affected. \n>\n>There have now been four “true” shutdowns where operations were affected for more than one business day. The first two happened in the winter of 1995-1996 when President Bill Clinton and the Republican Congress were unable to agree on spending levels and the government shut down twice, for a total of 26 days. The third was in 2013 when a House and Senate standoff over funding for the Affordable Care Act (ACA) resulted in a 16-day shutdown. The fourth shutdown in December 2018 and January 2019, technically only a partial shutdown because five of the 12 appropriations had previously been enacted, centered on a dispute over border wall funding and was the longest-lasting shutdown at 35 days.\n\nThe History, Art & Archives of the US House of Representatives [provides a list](https://history.house.gov/Institution/Shutdown/Government-Shutdowns/) of funding gaps and whether or not they included shutdowns. The US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) maintains [information about shutdown furloughs](https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/furlough-guidance/#Shutdown-Furlough) as well as [shutdown contingency plans for agencies](https://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/information-for-agencies/agency-contingency-plans/)." }, { "id": 20773, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?", "short_title": "Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?", "url_title": "Kerch Bridge knocked-out before 2025?", "slug": "kerch-bridge-knocked-out-before-2025", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:42:18.349285Z", "published_at": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.555458Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "open_time": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20773, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be knocked out for seven days before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:42:18.349285Z", "open_time": "2024-03-31T19:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-03T19:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-03T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-31T16:42:48.259851Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-25T05:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if third-party [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report that the Crimean Bridge:\n\n* has been made impassable to effectively all automobile traffic OR to effectively all rail traffic\n\n* for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2025\n\n* via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to \"knock out\" the bridge itself", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20773, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654858.907186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654858.907186, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03870215882643412 ], "histogram": [ [ 5.58032015296199, 2.88976116567203, 1.666560035088874, 0.17665817845075998, 0.7031695960903017, 0.2677413137870236, 0.06639265352365246, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620737856704605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031256855951900246, 0.0, 0.1014869968784809, 0.1391714993251316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006275715278433752, 0.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.052446473270009945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.043478249488001844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0456409475599527, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.035814214006338115, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009837259930117102, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04637161225326318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0591057465619562, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09249024938796033 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 77.22103703203105, "peer_score": 22.821159525020363, "coverage": 0.9746118439589374, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9989688815116866, "spot_peer_score": 18.08564931721212, "spot_baseline_score": 54.59683691052925, "baseline_archived_score": 77.22103703203105, "peer_archived_score": 22.821159525020363, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 18.08564931721212, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 54.59683691052925 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290052.332716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290052.332716, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 50, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9970793146968789, 0.00292068530312102 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 158, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge), also known as Kerch Bridge, connects the peninsula of Crimea with Russia's Krasnodar Krai region. It is properly two linked bridges in parallel; one bridge carries a roadway and the other a railway. The bridge is a potential military objective as a major logistics route for Russian forces in Crimea and adjacent portions of southern Ukraine." }, { "id": 20771, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?", "short_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker For All of 2024?", "url_title": "Mike Johnson Speaker For All of 2024?", "slug": "mike-johnson-speaker-for-all-of-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:04:48.214810Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.113012Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 477, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20771, "title": "Will Mike Johnson remain Speaker for all of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T04:04:48.214810Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:52:04.771453Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Mike Johnson, elected as the Speaker of the House of Representatives in late October 2023, is set to serve in this role through at least early January 2025. This tenure will include overseeing the House as it votes to formally accept the results of the 2024 election. Johnson, a Republican representative from Louisiana, succeeded Kevin McCarthy after his removal and became the fourth nominee for the speaker's role within the GOP. His appointment was met with various reactions, reflecting the political climate and the anticipation of the House's direction under his leadership.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Mike Johnson continuously holds the position of Speaker of the US House of Representatives until the end of 2024. Conversely, the resolution will be **No** if Mike Johnson is no longer Speaker of the House at any point in 2024 for any reason, including but not limited to resignation, retirement, election defeat, loss of majority party status, a vote of no confidence, expulsion, impeachment and conviction, disqualification, death, or incapacity. 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His appointment was met with various reactions, reflecting the political climate and the anticipation of the House's direction under his leadership." }, { "id": 20770, "title": "Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?", "short_title": "Ethiopia-Eritrea 100 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "Ethiopia-Eritrea 100 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "ethiopia-eritrea-100-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:45:53.215549Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.553037Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 415, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20770, "title": "Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:45:53.215549Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:26.718067Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia [in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict), following a [lengthy war for independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_War_of_Independence). Independence was followed by a [major war between the two nations in 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#Major_combat_phase_(1998%E2%80%932000)) and ongoing conflict until the two sides [announced a peace declaration in 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#2018_Eritrea%E2%80%93Ethiopia_summit).\n\nHowever, in October of 2023 the Ethiopian president raised concerns of a renewal of conflict when he discussed the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. [According to Africanews](https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/14/ethiopian-pm-affirms-no-plans-for-invasion-over-red-sea-ports-access//):\n\n>In a televised speech on October 13, Abiy said that landlocked Ethiopia \"is a nation whose existence is tied to the Red Sea\", a key waterway for global trade.\n>\n>He said Africa's second most populous country needed access to a port, adding: \"If we plan to live together in peace, we have to find a way to mutually share with each other in a balanced manner.\"\n>\n>Since then, Abiy has sought to alleviate regional fears, telling a military parade two weeks later that \"Ethiopia will not pursue its interests through war. We are committed to mutual interest through dialogue and negotiation.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 100 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the militaries of Ethiopia and Eritrea caused by confrontation with the overtly flagged military of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, but rebel groups and groups supported by the government financially or otherwise will not.\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 100 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20770, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654595.311584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 411, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654595.311584, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 411, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03641852915189424 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.66654555922002, 9.077783237382182, 3.1031457934371134, 1.8733521817548142, 1.057952488018942, 1.0382438389110868, 0.9524155439375244, 0.8576138297431684, 0.6339628391657566, 0.017849791316129238, 0.5322440929685028, 0.3451929795940357, 0.05424672646287712, 0.1674315290042739, 0.03172878101819607, 0.1751915890866319, 0.004192393021361575, 0.0016472573876032538, 0.0016913091545807998, 0.00766751073451142, 0.027555665310979086, 0.0, 0.00315596649099895, 0.001886305862439562, 0.0, 0.07248026999796953, 0.0, 3.7956221304614e-08, 0.042649268710034355, 0.0, 0.229983227545979, 0.00010281303367030147, 0.0, 0.013131890241280123, 0.037888051630931806, 0.009235094283095296, 0.0, 9.048777476301015e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22291040022902653, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.547596197899683e-05, 0.05298410101935845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034192350426412387, 0.13878877826501856, 0.0, 2.4192106112315608e-05, 0.00018204964324063092, 4.422659881415947e-05, 0.011237304371129499, 0.009852733202051569, 0.000594433115251091, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00019171008877781831, 3.705519524324167e-08, 0.0, 0.004962327650556321, 0.0, 0.01246256920492601, 0.009169218332993943, 0.025030756859076016, 0.049269087101627515, 0.04423432158648288, 0.0105812334237609, 1.2047446299017313e-05, 0.02025479618687154, 0.0, 0.3635731921144617, 0.001641159960007204, 4.323955470888204e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 5.8470829317966406e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000433694214719697, 0.0005717055580068049, 6.61409645566419e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006084077101588687, 0.0007784094521555002, 0.000500852191858622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020275498121128915 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 92.04120973124486, "peer_score": 39.6310862486102, "coverage": 0.9998900512355059, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998900512355059, "spot_peer_score": 39.44880179473438, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 92.04120973124486, "peer_archived_score": 39.6310862486102, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.44880179473438, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289582.154351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 408, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289582.154351, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 408, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9993427615191611, 0.0006572384808388566 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 789, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Eritrea gained independence from Ethiopia [in 1993](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict), following a [lengthy war for independence](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean_War_of_Independence). Independence was followed by a [major war between the two nations in 1998](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#Major_combat_phase_(1998%E2%80%932000)) and ongoing conflict until the two sides [announced a peace declaration in 2018](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eritrean%E2%80%93Ethiopian_border_conflict#2018_Eritrea%E2%80%93Ethiopia_summit).\n\nHowever, in October of 2023 the Ethiopian president raised concerns of a renewal of conflict when he discussed the importance of landlocked Ethiopia securing access to a port. [According to Africanews](https://www.africanews.com/2023/11/14/ethiopian-pm-affirms-no-plans-for-invasion-over-red-sea-ports-access//):\n\n>In a televised speech on October 13, Abiy said that landlocked Ethiopia \"is a nation whose existence is tied to the Red Sea\", a key waterway for global trade.\n>\n>He said Africa's second most populous country needed access to a port, adding: \"If we plan to live together in peace, we have to find a way to mutually share with each other in a balanced manner.\"\n>\n>Since then, Abiy has sought to alleviate regional fears, telling a military parade two weeks later that \"Ethiopia will not pursue its interests through war. We are committed to mutual interest through dialogue and negotiation.\"" }, { "id": 20769, "title": "Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?", "short_title": "Joe Biden Removed From 2024 Ballots", "url_title": "Joe Biden Removed From 2024 Ballots", "slug": "joe-biden-removed-from-2024-ballots", "author_id": 123419, "author_username": "Prodicus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:24:25.344288Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.287283Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 47, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20769, "title": "Will Joe Biden be unwillingly removed from any state ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T03:24:25.344288Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:47:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:47:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:47:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-01T16:05:25.280332Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-05T03:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-22T15:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Colorado Supreme Court recently [ruled that Donald Trump is to be removed from the state's 2024 Republican primary ballots](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/). In response, some Republicans have [intimated the possibility](https://nypost.com/2023/12/20/news/republicans-float-booting-biden-off-ballots-after-trump-colorado-ruling/) of trying to have Biden removed from the ballots of certain other conservative-leaning states like Texas or Florida. In particular, former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis argued that, \"What is absolutely wild about this opinion from the Colorado Supreme Court is that it contains no limiting principle,\" leading her to suggest that a court could be persuaded that Biden's handling of illegal immigration could be treated as disqualifying. By contrast, public health policy analyst Pradheep Shanker suggested, \"One could argue that since Biden made a deal with Iran to free up their billions of dollars in funds, that he gave aid and comfort to the enemy...\" and that such conduct could serve as a potential basis.", "resolution_criteria": "This will resolve **Yes** if according to credible sources Joe Biden is unwillingly removed , or ordered to be removed, from any ballot relevant to the 2024 Presidential election, be it the Democrat primary or the general election. The mechanism of the removal can be either by court order or the direct action of the relevant state government. Voluntary withdrawal from a ballot will not count for resolution, nor will removal based upon the choice of a non-governmental organization like the DNC. If this does not happen before the day of the election in 2024, the question will resolve **No**. Appeals which overturn the initial verdict or action shall not impact the resolution.", "fine_print": "In the unlikely event that the election does not take place within calendar year 2024, this will still resolve based upon who would be upon the ballots were they to be printed, although the resolution date shall be pushed back to January 1st, 2025 to allow for a potential late election under such circumstances.", "post_id": 20769, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730030654.50506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730030654.50506, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.006593562197351622 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.146628946214278, 1.3720832687651046, 0.1648500158454983, 0.28495119657571016, 0.26102326165716355, 0.10062374127771072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012852091876617526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08915094763644647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025137985516365664, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 64.88725812684788, "peer_score": 2.1480655880457853, "coverage": 0.6620652164442369, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998878551245588, "spot_peer_score": 0.416300978549264, "baseline_archived_score": 64.88725812684788, "peer_archived_score": 2.1480655880457853, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.416300978549264 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287352.062363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287352.062363, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 47, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 89, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Colorado Supreme Court recently [ruled that Donald Trump is to be removed from the state's 2024 Republican primary ballots](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-colorado-supreme-court/). In response, some Republicans have [intimated the possibility](https://nypost.com/2023/12/20/news/republicans-float-booting-biden-off-ballots-after-trump-colorado-ruling/) of trying to have Biden removed from the ballots of certain other conservative-leaning states like Texas or Florida. In particular, former Trump attorney Jenna Ellis argued that, \"What is absolutely wild about this opinion from the Colorado Supreme Court is that it contains no limiting principle,\" leading her to suggest that a court could be persuaded that Biden's handling of illegal immigration could be treated as disqualifying. By contrast, public health policy analyst Pradheep Shanker suggested, \"One could argue that since Biden made a deal with Iran to free up their billions of dollars in funds, that he gave aid and comfort to the enemy...\" and that such conduct could serve as a potential basis." }, { "id": 20768, "title": "Will a nuclear weapon detonation kill at least 10 people in 2024?", "short_title": "10 Deaths Due to Nuclear Detonation in 2024?", "url_title": "10 Deaths Due to Nuclear Detonation in 2024?", "slug": "10-deaths-due-to-nuclear-detonation-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-22T02:44:44.437433Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.235670Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 30, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", 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least 10 people in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T02:44:44.437433Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:40:02.818620Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, 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More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has [elevated the risk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/) of a nuclear detonation as Russia is one of [nine states](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) known to possess nuclear weapons.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, a nuclear weapon detonates and kills at least 10 people. The detonation can occur for any reason, including tests and accidents.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20768, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654592.751428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 960, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654592.751428, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 960, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.007 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.028019901189891352 ], "histogram": [ [ 45.58293270403196, 9.511477243820691, 1.4687087194386708, 0.19289494929684034, 0.0025743356096059196, 1.3847122110586838, 0.0012607351888612398, 0.0003784760132962096, 0.016796196855332464, 0.0027225643116221415, 0.4590385923959355, 0.0016751899046404427, 6.426105983909432e-05, 0.002420215239438009, 4.295247268273693e-05, 0.15320722113128607, 7.844033698889152e-07, 5.362271288233775e-05, 4.2333170976230706e-12, 9.194239322042377e-11, 0.17421015348126623, 0.0003484074592434622, 0.0, 0.0, 2.574341593589784e-05, 1.7842905270165504e-05, 6.41743866430417e-08, 0.001939678549144394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.014294723839440011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1805997415579867e-10, 7.433420249858509e-08, 2.5847700590001355e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.193784950606139e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008273740315338608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27455243937448326, 4.919991621711779e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9948683683798661e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002680724130031666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37386265947700587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8476972062695771 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 98.502452037276, "peer_score": 5.870245050048965, "coverage": 0.9998991847201654, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998991847201654, "spot_peer_score": 3.6609135678812486, "spot_baseline_score": 97.08536543404836, "baseline_archived_score": 98.502452037276, "peer_archived_score": 5.870245050048965, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 3.6609135678812486, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 97.08536543404836 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289739.866615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 944, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289739.866615, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 944, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9954731990802758, 0.004526800919724248 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1488, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The threat of nuclear weapons has loomed over the world since over one hundred thousand were killed when the United States [dropped nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_bombings_of_Hiroshima_and_Nagasaki) in August of 1945. More recently, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has [elevated the risk](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/12591/nuclear-detonation-in-ukraine-by-2023/) of a nuclear detonation as Russia is one of [nine states](https://fas.org/initiative/status-world-nuclear-forces/) known to possess nuclear weapons." }, { "id": 20767, "title": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "short_title": "Detroit Pistons name change by 2055", "url_title": "Detroit Pistons name change by 2055", "slug": "detroit-pistons-name-change-by-2055", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 114911, "username": "Joker" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-22T01:28:07.348812Z", "published_at": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.018667Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20767, "title": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T01:28:07.348812Z", "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-28T19:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-28T19:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question positively resolves if the Detroit Pistons change their team nickname, non-trivially and as reported by official team news reports, before January 1st, 2055.\n\nIf the Detroit Pistons move their team to another city, the question remains unresolved so long as the team nickname remains the Pistons.", "fine_print": "This question resolves as \"ambiguous\" if the Detroit Pistons or the National Basketball Association dissolves. If the NBA breaks up or gets absorbed into another league and the Detroit Pistons remain as a franchise within a new league, then this question will remain unresolved. If that team dissolves or if the new league that the Detroit Pistons find itself in dissolves, then this question will resolve as \"ambiguous\". \n \nExamples of a \"trivial\" change that does not trigger resolution is the team changing its name to the \"Pist0ns\", \"Toyota Pistons\", or \"Cylinders\". For a positive resolution, the new name can refer to another internal combustion engine component that is understood not to be the piston or a part of a piston. A hypothetical name referring to the crankshaft or fuel injector satisfies this.\n\nChanging the team's name for a day or even a season does not count if it is understood that the team would revert to \"Pistons\" later.\n\nThe team can still refer to itself as the \"Pistons\" on some retro-themed days after the name change.\n\nIf the name change occurs for the 2054-2055 season, then the team must play at least one game under the new name for that season (in the part of the season where it is the year 2054) with the understanding that \"Pistons\" will no longer be the name of the team from the first day of 2055 and instead will be the name that the team had used in one or more games in 2054.", "post_id": 20767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1744122635.640545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1744122635.640545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.24393380606577464 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.6133113153919136, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7536986769772691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290017.823912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290017.823912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9432223643519807, 0.056777635648019284 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not." }, { "id": 20766, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "short_title": "India-Pakistan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "India-Pakistan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "india-pakistan-10-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T23:27:04.746097Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.029837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 437, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20766, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T23:27:04.746097Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:16.725911Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.\n\nTensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of India and Pakistan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [India's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_India) and [Pakistan's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_Pakistan).\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671905.252871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671905.252871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04534650150637146 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.974918277296965, 6.946697806472478, 5.2133810308493995, 1.9820421670754325, 1.0947796613133078, 2.2208266990392174, 0.915641344347673, 0.9642636569548695, 0.09180910185020903, 0.44386440591520016, 0.4386859972657406, 0.28466415280389135, 0.21522196626515838, 0.22773383161069644, 0.08277423064505063, 0.7483020658426881, 0.04047533653502088, 0.2226711948235486, 0.010504757373108338, 0.0007390583918672462, 0.1504175952198945, 0.057434411478587924, 0.0006393695152392549, 0.0003858254717087067, 0.011221079050856555, 0.2903160751202821, 0.0012285556510624408, 0.013096261967826355, 0.23002711249340896, 0.0, 0.04666756004703787, 0.00011628149021532003, 0.0, 0.015554531656562806, 0.00034351851345616166, 0.06539903175087991, 0.0, 0.004752772186592345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631267403528205, 0.0010659468179348417, 1.879831094635462e-05, 0.0, 0.0055823095248798155, 0.04183804114827425, 1.08883132041088e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0634501064219082e-08, 0.21653525984387076, 0.0005505915286552655, 0.06551273507199189, 4.023717129882482e-07, 0.00013948437462188743, 0.026412044832583692, 0.0015172876431964715, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4129893795619074e-06, 0.004475429344738735, 0.00031355984569851424, 0.0002641886949040042, 0.012345181560069312, 0.0, 0.30006845868263055, 5.3172308692896086e-05, 0.25501575498911744, 0.001876446730868979, 0.0, 0.014389598456056564, 0.0027149841686678737, 3.622913957057264e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022167489575035393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012563301156684982, 0.000857984124280316, 0.09846294627940043, 0.0, 0.021534708466923118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016267721936454726, 0.0, 6.918309992095295e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.59681016327898e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.23778370104819, "peer_score": 23.68698471652028, "coverage": 0.9998527631587095, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998527631587095, "spot_peer_score": 19.496100784404543, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 83.23778370104819, "peer_archived_score": 23.68698471652028, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.496100784404543, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288044.822666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 429, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288044.822666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 429, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930837372167247, 0.006916262783275287 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 872, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.\n\nTensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries." }, { "id": 20764, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "short_title": "China and Taiwan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "China and Taiwan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "china-and-taiwan-10-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:47:32.366884Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.567512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", 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"🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T22:12:16.183435Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3048, "type": "question_series", "name": "The Taiwan Tinderbox", "slug": "taiwan", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/taiwan-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-03-30T12:00:11Z", "close_date": "2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T22:12:16.183435Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20764, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:47:32.366884Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T16:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T16:46:47.637375Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of China or Taiwan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [China's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China), such as the [People's Armed Police](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China).\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654588.925616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 589, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654588.925616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 589, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.021242039210976903 ], "histogram": [ [ 26.506325868135654, 11.126971484437709, 2.080673577915504, 1.8953894139100758, 0.5569521611031851, 1.931469625162718, 0.4749324982917963, 0.14667318936123655, 0.06601489595917778, 0.008509978893225332, 0.4133655978138095, 0.47902605217005145, 0.016407810938853493, 1.7410402551291408e-08, 0.010294846983161266, 0.07847271698846078, 0.0032034455681931137, 4.958459653123438e-05, 0.0034565600984087725, 3.2284157696847826e-05, 0.10513339472371024, 0.0021615983627149733, 0.009138329896489548, 1.0551883515727797e-05, 0.001858324869328645, 0.43554787960481633, 2.7374125387857433e-08, 0.0, 0.0019130162386669191, 0.0, 0.0006294830583602122, 0.11578991452741336, 5.668814495182096e-05, 7.986368427420514e-06, 0.18925009227197345, 0.003435197116065612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15865724016771385, 0.005682696056252648, 4.141467297390119e-05, 0.004277295007442095, 0.0, 2.2101167936402543e-07, 0.0001278961451111021, 0.0, 3.147936143815364e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011735995783458667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039459703676540485, 0.022952496518789268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000192948247338756, 4.791392980236543e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006345880055999825, 0.0, 1.481088362009019e-07, 2.9410038057741593e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0965581442152373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9104796891418476e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008650824271354883, 0.0, 4.2746133471601115e-07, 0.0, 8.131327691342879e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002361435189644669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.931128155900205e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05918666912905212 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.73793365675186, "peer_score": 16.8956953250338, "coverage": 0.9998987523590184, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998987523590184, "spot_peer_score": 16.281493193012388, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 95.73793365675186, "peer_archived_score": 16.8956953250338, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.281493193012388, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287673.513387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 585, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287673.513387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 585, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1033, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)." }, { "id": 20763, "title": "Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?", "short_title": "New Glenn Reaches 100km Altitude 2024?", "url_title": "New Glenn Reaches 100km Altitude 2024?", "slug": "new-glenn-reaches-100km-altitude-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:59.441145Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.170761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:47:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 370, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "🚀", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20763, "title": "Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:59.441145Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:48:19.447480Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Blue Origin's [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) launch vehicle consists of two stages and is planned to be able to [launch 45 metric tons of payload into low Earth 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The first launch is [currently planned](https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/) to carry a NASA [smallsat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_satellite) in August of 2024." } ] }
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