Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2860
{ "count": 5973, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2880", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2840", "results": [ { "id": 20767, "title": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "short_title": "Detroit Pistons name change by 2055", "url_title": "Detroit Pistons name change by 2055", "slug": "detroit-pistons-name-change-by-2055", "author_id": 153157, "author_username": "DavidHume", "coauthors": [ { "id": 114911, "username": "Joker" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-22T01:28:07.348812Z", "published_at": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:19:01.390921Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20767, "title": "Will the Detroit Pistons change their name by 2055?", "created_at": "2023-12-22T01:28:07.348812Z", "open_time": "2024-01-25T19:55:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-28T19:55:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-28T19:55:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2055-01-01T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not.", "resolution_criteria": "This question positively resolves if the Detroit Pistons change their team nickname, non-trivially and as reported by official team news reports, before January 1st, 2055.\n\nIf the Detroit Pistons move their team to another city, the question remains unresolved so long as the team nickname remains the Pistons.", "fine_print": "This question resolves as \"ambiguous\" if the Detroit Pistons or the National Basketball Association dissolves. If the NBA breaks up or gets absorbed into another league and the Detroit Pistons remain as a franchise within a new league, then this question will remain unresolved. If that team dissolves or if the new league that the Detroit Pistons find itself in dissolves, then this question will resolve as \"ambiguous\". \n \nExamples of a \"trivial\" change that does not trigger resolution is the team changing its name to the \"Pist0ns\", \"Toyota Pistons\", or \"Cylinders\". For a positive resolution, the new name can refer to another internal combustion engine component that is understood not to be the piston or a part of a piston. A hypothetical name referring to the crankshaft or fuel injector satisfies this.\n\nChanging the team's name for a day or even a season does not count if it is understood that the team would revert to \"Pistons\" later.\n\nThe team can still refer to itself as the \"Pistons\" on some retro-themed days after the name change.\n\nIf the name change occurs for the 2054-2055 season, then the team must play at least one game under the new name for that season (in the part of the season where it is the year 2054) with the understanding that \"Pistons\" will no longer be the name of the team from the first day of 2055 and instead will be the name that the team had used in one or more games in 2054.", "post_id": 20767, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758493130.616218, "end_time": 1803841600.273284, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758493130.616218, "end_time": 1803841600.273284, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.33 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.23018580393319635 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7490672709776599, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20077883994766343, 0.6133113153919136, 0.07386240743899689, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7536986769772691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8680988742991211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290017.823912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290017.823912, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9432223643519807, 0.056777635648019284 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Detroit Pistons](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Detroit_Pistons) started as the \"Fort Wayne Zollner Pistons\", a semi-professional team in 1937 in Indiana. The founder, [Fred Zollner](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Zollner), had a foundry that made piston engines in Fort Wayne, Indiana. In 1948, the team became the \"Fort Wayne Pistons\" when they joined the Basketball Association of America (BAA). In 1949, Zollner brokered the formation of the National Basketball Association from merger of the BAA and National Basketball League. In 1957, Zollner moved his team to Detroit, as his team was unable to generate enough revenue in Fort Wayne's small market. Zollner retained the \"Pistons\" name as it was still apt - Detroit was considered then as the center of the automotive industry.\n\n[There is currently a transition to electric vehicles](https://www.iea.org/energy-system/transport/electric-vehicles) where many observers expect it to completely displace internal combustion engines in the next few decades. Electric vehicles do not use pistons in propulsion. Hydrogen vehicles also do not." }, { "id": 20766, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "short_title": "India-Pakistan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "India-Pakistan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "india-pakistan-10-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T23:27:04.746097Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.029837Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 437, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20766, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between India and Pakistan in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T23:27:04.746097Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-07T13:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-07T13:52:16.725911Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.\n\nTensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of India and Pakistan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [India's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_India) and [Pakistan's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_Pakistan).\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20766, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671905.252871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671905.252871, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 433, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.03 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.04534650150637146 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.974918277296965, 6.946697806472478, 5.2133810308493995, 1.9820421670754325, 1.0947796613133078, 2.2208266990392174, 0.915641344347673, 0.9642636569548695, 0.09180910185020903, 0.44386440591520016, 0.4386859972657406, 0.28466415280389135, 0.21522196626515838, 0.22773383161069644, 0.08277423064505063, 0.7483020658426881, 0.04047533653502088, 0.2226711948235486, 0.010504757373108338, 0.0007390583918672462, 0.1504175952198945, 0.057434411478587924, 0.0006393695152392549, 0.0003858254717087067, 0.011221079050856555, 0.2903160751202821, 0.0012285556510624408, 0.013096261967826355, 0.23002711249340896, 0.0, 0.04666756004703787, 0.00011628149021532003, 0.0, 0.015554531656562806, 0.00034351851345616166, 0.06539903175087991, 0.0, 0.004752772186592345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631267403528205, 0.0010659468179348417, 1.879831094635462e-05, 0.0, 0.0055823095248798155, 0.04183804114827425, 1.08883132041088e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0634501064219082e-08, 0.21653525984387076, 0.0005505915286552655, 0.06551273507199189, 4.023717129882482e-07, 0.00013948437462188743, 0.026412044832583692, 0.0015172876431964715, 0.0, 0.0, 2.4129893795619074e-06, 0.004475429344738735, 0.00031355984569851424, 0.0002641886949040042, 0.012345181560069312, 0.0, 0.30006845868263055, 5.3172308692896086e-05, 0.25501575498911744, 0.001876446730868979, 0.0, 0.014389598456056564, 0.0027149841686678737, 3.622913957057264e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0022167489575035393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012563301156684982, 0.000857984124280316, 0.09846294627940043, 0.0, 0.021534708466923118, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016267721936454726, 0.0, 6.918309992095295e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.59681016327898e-06 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 83.23778370104819, "peer_score": 23.68698471652028, "coverage": 0.9998527631587095, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998527631587095, "spot_peer_score": 19.496100784404543, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "baseline_archived_score": 83.23778370104819, "peer_archived_score": 23.68698471652028, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.496100784404543, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288044.822666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 429, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288044.822666, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 429, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9930837372167247, 0.006916262783275287 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 872, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "India and Pakistan have tense [relations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India%E2%80%93Pakistan_relations) and a [history of conflict](https://www.cfr.org/global-conflict-tracker/conflict/conflict-between-india-and-pakistan), in recent years involving a number of skirmishes at the contested border.\n\nTensions heightened in June of 2020 when Indian and Chinese forces [clashed in hand to hand combat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020%E2%80%932021_China%E2%80%93India_skirmishes#Galwan_Valley_clash) along the border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldier and four Chinese soldiers. Following additional clashes, India and Pakistan [reaffirmed a previous peace accord in February of 2021](https://apnews.com/article/asia-pacific-india-kashmir-islamabad-pakistan-cfe1f0f1f97c2560ff1c71d091718c1a), which was followed by a period of reduced conflict. Still, small skirmishes have continued to occur, most recently in early November 2023 when an [Indian border guard was killed](https://www.rferl.org/a/indian-soldier-killed-kashmir-shots-pakistan-border-guards/32677720.html) during an exchange of weapons fire between border guards for the two countries." }, { "id": 20764, "title": "Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?", "short_title": "China and Taiwan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "url_title": "China and Taiwan 10 Conflict Deaths in 2024?", "slug": "china-and-taiwan-10-conflict-deaths-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T22:47:32.366884Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.567512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", 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"2050-02-02T12:00:11Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-03-08T23:35:12.165648Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T03:31:49.038021Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", 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"inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that there have been 10 or more deaths among the overtly flagged members of the armed forces of China or Taiwan caused by confrontation with the armed forces of the other nation. This includes accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "fine_print": "* Armed forces under government control will qualify, for example [China's paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China), such as the [People's Armed Police](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China).\n* Deaths do not need to occur at the same time, or among the same military force, and all deaths among members of the armed forces of either military occurring in calendar year 2024 will count.\n* If a range is provided, the lower end of the range must be 10 or more to qualify. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt.\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.", "post_id": 20764, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654588.925616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 589, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654588.925616, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 589, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.005 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.995, 0.005 ], "means": [ 0.021242039210976903 ], "histogram": [ [ 26.506325868135654, 11.126971484437709, 2.080673577915504, 1.8953894139100758, 0.5569521611031851, 1.931469625162718, 0.4749324982917963, 0.14667318936123655, 0.06601489595917778, 0.008509978893225332, 0.4133655978138095, 0.47902605217005145, 0.016407810938853493, 1.7410402551291408e-08, 0.010294846983161266, 0.07847271698846078, 0.0032034455681931137, 4.958459653123438e-05, 0.0034565600984087725, 3.2284157696847826e-05, 0.10513339472371024, 0.0021615983627149733, 0.009138329896489548, 1.0551883515727797e-05, 0.001858324869328645, 0.43554787960481633, 2.7374125387857433e-08, 0.0, 0.0019130162386669191, 0.0, 0.0006294830583602122, 0.11578991452741336, 5.668814495182096e-05, 7.986368427420514e-06, 0.18925009227197345, 0.003435197116065612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15865724016771385, 0.005682696056252648, 4.141467297390119e-05, 0.004277295007442095, 0.0, 2.2101167936402543e-07, 0.0001278961451111021, 0.0, 3.147936143815364e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011735995783458667, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00039459703676540485, 0.022952496518789268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000192948247338756, 4.791392980236543e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.006345880055999825, 0.0, 1.481088362009019e-07, 2.9410038057741593e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0965581442152373, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.9104796891418476e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008650824271354883, 0.0, 4.2746133471601115e-07, 0.0, 8.131327691342879e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002361435189644669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.931128155900205e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05918666912905212 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 95.73793365675186, "peer_score": 16.8956953250338, "coverage": 0.9998987523590184, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998987523590184, "spot_peer_score": 16.281493193012388, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 95.73793365675186, "peer_archived_score": 16.8956953250338, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.281493193012388, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287673.513387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 585, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287673.513387, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 585, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1033, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "China has [repeatedly asserted](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/china/xi-warned-biden-summit-beijing-will-reunify-taiwan-china-rcna130087) a claim to Taiwan since the beginning of independent Taiwanese governance in 1949. The [tense relations](https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/china-taiwan-relations-tension-us-policy-biden) between the two countries has led to fears of a [Chinese invasion of Taiwan](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11480/china-launches-invasion-of-taiwan/)." }, { "id": 20763, "title": "Will the New Glenn launch vehicle reach an altitude of 100 kilometers in 2024?", "short_title": "New Glenn Reaches 100km Altitude 2024?", "url_title": "New Glenn Reaches 100km Altitude 2024?", "slug": "new-glenn-reaches-100km-altitude-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:59.441145Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.170761Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 22, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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orbit](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn). The first launch is [currently planned](https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/) to carry a NASA [smallsat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_satellite) in August of 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the New Glenn launch vehicle reaches an altitude of 100 kilometers intact.", "fine_print": "* Test flights with no payload count.", "post_id": 20763, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735672439.667552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735672439.667552, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 366, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.11 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.09249766372903823 ], "histogram": [ [ 17.90460322918488, 4.082299180841074, 0.0, 0.7097572692796921, 0.525652355349865, 1.9293015993795988, 0.19994538958916785, 0.6230473729549258, 0.00933210965085025, 0.7069739884316937, 0.8728899316987706, 0.01774844097757489, 0.005909899399980085, 0.0, 0.49735499771416825, 0.8147919098894925, 2.1536124006480515e-06, 0.08684683699696695, 0.29681281169268203, 0.16355296534825678, 0.3498466660598826, 0.05596383164229851, 0.308163539574284, 0.02463848769631428, 0.0010669824633568184, 0.8171027496033505, 4.2088276180855116e-05, 0.20825909202867865, 0.4426712046981275, 0.0, 0.9778702457558178, 9.174880316330508e-06, 0.17831880702658195, 0.7775442321711215, 0.013586468143509688, 0.6493501726551145, 0.29841188236675636, 0.001103681815805035, 0.19243295778258407, 0.005726140451465661, 0.22533890201157925, 0.18182291136904302, 0.24515216713277674, 0.0, 0.0024387993728032073, 0.060799179121925326, 0.0, 0.04676078455863615, 0.0, 1.8592759020765258e-06, 0.2719424024305336, 0.000681436957599874, 8.314337207373128e-08, 0.0014140160232210591, 0.051015448063206334, 0.05362488606019185, 0.02134104497792172, 0.000131950006926256, 0.0, 0.01321075543266638, 0.06325159889510981, 0.13751726798285485, 0.008916062069336098, 0.003551486941334163, 0.0, 0.04760698584007501, 0.00023912330121716427, 2.0759220406730155e-05, 0.0001256217808421004, 0.011081735125860267, 0.22314327178283394, 0.000459873987107951, 0.14995222582816706, 0.0019362004776498287, 0.0, 0.00982149940872127, 0.0031762999116052818, 9.789338955804075e-05, 0.002096249359010503, 0.087971028958726, 0.006684983921047407, 0.0, 0.0032970781733977594, 0.0005953110243529837, 2.9668723753987617e-06, 0.0015459346032085765, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004928473660667823, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2915032748856147e-05, 0.0, 6.479426321201786e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07616138745055129 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 41.79039915327695, "peer_score": 34.37533076085686, "coverage": 0.999852002234566, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999852002234566, "spot_peer_score": 36.72441854779305, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "baseline_archived_score": 41.79039915327695, "peer_archived_score": 34.37533076085686, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.72441854779305, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288638.08545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 356, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288638.08545, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 356, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6700860956512431, 0.32991390434875695 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 846, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Blue Origin's [New Glenn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_Glenn) launch vehicle consists of two stages and is planned to be able to [launch 45 metric tons of payload into low Earth orbit](https://www.blueorigin.com/new-glenn). The first launch is [currently planned](https://spacenews.com/nasa-mars-smallsat-mission-to-be-on-first-new-glenn-launch/) to carry a NASA [smallsat](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small_satellite) in August of 2024." }, { "id": 20762, "title": "Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?", "short_title": "SSE Index up over 2024?", "url_title": "SSE Index up over 2024?", "slug": "sse-index-up-over-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:31.702034Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.038066Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 390, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20762, "title": "Will the Shanghai (SSE) Composite Index go up over 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T21:38:31.702034Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T20:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:52:21.859471Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T20:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": [], "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. While the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past two decades, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has had more humble returns. For reference, [China's GDP](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product) grew from 1.47 trillion USD in 2002 to 17.96 trillion USD in 2022, while the [SSE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/) went from 1500 at the beginning of 2003 to 3255 at the beginning of 2023.\n\nFor further reference, [from 2003 until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index), the SSE ended the year up for 11 of those years and down for 9 of those years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if on December 31st, 2024, the closing price of the SSE Index is higher than the closing price of the SSE Index was on December 29th, 2023. Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.\n\nThe closing price will be checked at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS", "fine_print": "If the Yahoo Finance page ceases to exist before January 1st, 2025, another source will be used as chosen by Metaculus.", "post_id": 20762, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654820.234715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 386, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654820.234715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 386, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.97 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.030000000000000027, 0.97 ], "means": [ 0.8844728858466306 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.18810210086390639, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 6.704305703437546e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042661423332883, 0.12283000783985593, 2.2935753543074472e-07, 0.0, 0.007749800102282546, 0.0069892836192071445, 9.901301946206579e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007854822223100393, 8.088334431164492e-08, 0.0, 0.022283624744831976, 1.2372242141152907e-07, 0.18513496135896948, 0.0, 0.0, 3.3983423966621406e-08, 0.0, 0.11576173205058622, 0.048224370121918034, 0.0, 0.27936519540274274, 8.643607838749941e-05, 0.1422069883509022, 0.021712022827982094, 4.0772990626447845e-05, 0.008118176637221634, 0.01738034406241161, 0.3686366228891674, 0.007296062193379834, 0.023586950813111227, 0.0007832854852571766, 0.10167712335036941, 0.10996168067601271, 0.1416699407570663, 0.1475172792756767, 0.10056444104581772, 0.1055978916541806, 0.2792839136811468, 0.01207066104218565, 0.005442411812084318, 0.16910262391937608, 0.17357373496515016, 0.3949405063418717, 0.5097380982614022, 0.20219168412016908, 0.0, 0.06666289192091368, 0.4892295003705306, 0.003849792242561716, 0.051233550651627, 0.009780476490208034, 0.0015837232713773206, 0.5012631741145048, 0.11000100643748645, 0.34154496961473824, 0.0021097083604950445, 0.0, 0.790636767644904, 0.6583298761564762, 0.002144190567394474, 0.4162397161665195, 0.34780758821645624, 0.44532290570655597, 0.0, 0.03342653855633191, 0.0005021715239331986, 0.0003559105776006588, 0.1932334199934149, 9.340223952418717e-05, 0.0, 0.03157566977943679, 0.0, 0.08481398255981393, 0.04980479807336776, 0.0, 0.3709277024992809, 0.0, 0.9760563081228281, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38436609495710694, 0.06881593442040619, 2.9262313902595194, 2.4326202378771424, 3.0598977464006145, 3.955780465160071, 14.919430172222837 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 18.26683141616948, "peer_score": 14.871827884412877, "coverage": 0.9998510062625547, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998510062625547, "spot_peer_score": 6.413386937926504, "spot_baseline_score": 2.856915219677092, "baseline_archived_score": 18.26683141616948, "peer_archived_score": 14.871827884412877, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.413386937926504, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 2.856915219677092 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288602.224964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 380, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288602.224964, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 380, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.44796435866491824, 0.5520356413350818 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 13, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1043, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The SSE Composite Index is a stock market index of all stocks on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. While the Chinese economy has grown significantly over the past two decades, the Shanghai Stock Exchange has had more humble returns. For reference, [China's GDP](https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/CHN/china/gdp-gross-domestic-product) grew from 1.47 trillion USD in 2002 to 17.96 trillion USD in 2022, while the [SSE](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000001.SS/) went from 1500 at the beginning of 2003 to 3255 at the beginning of 2023.\n\nFor further reference, [from 2003 until 2022](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SSE_Composite_Index), the SSE ended the year up for 11 of those years and down for 9 of those years." }, { "id": 20761, "title": "Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?", "short_title": "Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024?", "url_title": "Ukraine Controls Bakhmut at End of 2024?", "slug": "ukraine-controls-bakhmut-at-end-of-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T20:27:16.291137Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.067909Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 20, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:16.291000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 543, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20761, "title": "Will Ukraine control central Bakhmut at the end of 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T20:27:16.291137Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T19:00:16.291000Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:46:13.825572Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-30T23:00:16.291000Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17742/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023/)\n\n---\n\nThe city of Bakhmut in Ukraine has been [heavily contested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/20/the-battle-for-ukraine-bakhmut-a-timeline), and [according to PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraine-ends-year-in-disappointing-stalemate-with-russia-and-anxious-about-aid-from-allies) the battle for Bakhmut has been \"the longest and bloodiest battle of the war\".\n\nThe [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (ISW) has been tracking the war in Ukraine and charting the control of territory on its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). As of December 21, 2023, the ISW shows central Bakhmut as under \"assessed Russian control\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, when accessed by Metaculus at 2pm ET on December 31, 2024, the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) shows the Bakhmut State District Administrative Building โ located at Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500 โ is under any of the following categories:\n\n- Ukrainian Control\n- Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Ukrainian control of the location\n\nThe question will resolve as **No** if the administrative building is assessed to be within any of the following categories:\n\n- Assessed Russian Control\n- Assessed Russian Advance\n- Claimed Russian Control\n- Reported Ukrainian Partisan Warfare\n- Any other categories created by ISW that indicate Russian control of the building", "fine_print": "* The sole authoritative source for defining areas of control will be the [Institute for the Study of War (ISW) Ukraine Interactive War Map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). If the map has not been updated in the last seven days at the specified time of resolution, the question will be **annulled**.\n* Forecasters can see the exact location of the administrative building by viewing the [ISW Map](https://isw.pub/InteractiveUkraineWarMap), clicking on the 'magnifying glass' icon, and searching for \"Oleksandra Sybirtseva St, 33, Bakhmut, Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, 84500\".\n* If the building itself no longer exists, resolution will be based on the location of the building.\n* Credit to [GJOpen](https://www.gjopen.com/questions/2621-will-the-location-of-the-administrative-services-building-in-bakhmut-ukraine-cease-to-be-under-ukrainian-control-before-26-january-2023-according-to-the-institute-for-the-study-of-war) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 20761, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735549868.59511, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 539, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], 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0.3670318276253227 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 93.19754089377847, "peer_score": 31.88351598331526, "coverage": 0.9998980928354837, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998980928354837, "spot_peer_score": 30.480956305251112, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 93.19754089377847, "peer_archived_score": 31.88351598331526, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 30.480956305251112, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289901.263549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 535, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289901.263549, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 535, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9942733650085929, 0.005726634991407103 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 11, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1124, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "**Previous Questions on Metaculus**\n\n- [Will Russian troops reach the center of Bakhmut, Ukraine before 0000 hrs local time on January 27th, 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14607/russian-troops-in-central-bakhmut-by-1-27-23/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of May 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/16743/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-june-2023/)\n- [Will Ukraine regain control of central Bakhmut by the end of September 2023?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/17742/ukraine-regains-bakhmut-before-october-2023/)\n\n---\n\nThe city of Bakhmut in Ukraine has been [heavily contested](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/5/20/the-battle-for-ukraine-bakhmut-a-timeline), and [according to PBS](https://www.pbs.org/newshour/amp/world/ukraine-ends-year-in-disappointing-stalemate-with-russia-and-anxious-about-aid-from-allies) the battle for Bakhmut has been \"the longest and bloodiest battle of the war\".\n\nThe [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) (ISW) has been tracking the war in Ukraine and charting the control of territory on its [interactive map](https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375). As of December 21, 2023, the ISW shows central Bakhmut as under \"assessed Russian control\"." }, { "id": 20760, "title": "Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?", "short_title": "Artemis II Lunar Flyby in 2024?", "url_title": "Artemis II Lunar Flyby in 2024?", "slug": "artemis-ii-lunar-flyby-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T19:16:57.127621Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.959521Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 11, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 330, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3695, "name": "Space", "slug": "space", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Space", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20760, "title": "Will a crewed Artemis II flight approach the moon in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T19:16:57.127621Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:31:55.473619Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "NASA's [Artemis program](https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/) is a series of missions to explore the moon. The first mission, [Artemis I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_1), was launched on November 16, 2022, and performed an uncrewed flyby of the moon.\n\nThe second mission, [Artemis II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_2#Mission), is planned to be the first crewed mission to fly by the moon since [humans last left low Earth orbit with the Apollo 17 mission in 1972](https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/why-50-years-since-humans-went-moon). Its launch is [scheduled to be no earlier than November of 2024](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/).\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/artemis-2-map-october-2021.jpeg\" alt=\"Artemis II Mission Plan\" />\n*[Image published by NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-ii-map/)*", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, the Artemis II moon mission comes within 20,000 nautical miles of the surface of the moon with a living crew.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20760, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654579.754091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654579.754091, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.009526350282380839 ], "histogram": [ [ 19.968206147450427, 13.390644166032857, 0.4928485010704709, 0.02683507381539951, 0.0003027350783425065, 0.11944174129162362, 0.0, 0.00252519126957343, 0.0, 0.0002593035657326077, 0.06615060890773285, 0.00022242825849018072, 0.0, 6.411139219704391e-05, 0.0, 0.1515712969674423, 0.0001347363865395433, 1.3169088681304128e-06, 0.0001280312246962695, 0.001470959673959244, 0.010886627367807461, 0.0001619713594016113, 0.00339402722452779, 0.0, 0.22258826473067672, 0.002500118038891514, 0.0, 0.0038301263558935352, 0.0006544831024092165, 0.0, 0.008707050904459444, 0.004145777240066602, 0.0018214362134958092, 0.0018731386364306346, 0.0, 0.00018892020536550038, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0017573544978091392, 0.0, 0.1034681865290071, 0.0025675713633177928, 0.0022491355374569012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001406930648791243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006952059201134297, 0.0011962682440931625, 0.00021096737893537993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00028701526695447605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009029379555941219, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.4038366634819247e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012338037600377488, 0.0, 0.0008853571065745246, 0.003677322080269969, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.786580063142045e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 4.2950164252548256e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00010726260855055622, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002767128816549504, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.090838682512758e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.862213487543925e-05 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.72098795894492, "peer_score": 21.029324659122093, "coverage": 0.9999848327436859, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999848327436859, "spot_peer_score": 25.37582344181342, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 97.72098795894492, "peer_archived_score": 21.029324659122093, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 25.37582344181342, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287035.254527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287035.254527, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 326, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "NASA's [Artemis program](https://www.nasa.gov/specials/artemis/) is a series of missions to explore the moon. The first mission, [Artemis I](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_1), was launched on November 16, 2022, and performed an uncrewed flyby of the moon.\n\nThe second mission, [Artemis II](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_2#Mission), is planned to be the first crewed mission to fly by the moon since [humans last left low Earth orbit with the Apollo 17 mission in 1972](https://airandspace.si.edu/stories/editorial/why-50-years-since-humans-went-moon). Its launch is [scheduled to be no earlier than November of 2024](https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/).\n\n<img src=\"https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/artemis-2-map-october-2021.jpeg\" alt=\"Artemis II Mission Plan\" />\n*[Image published by NASA](https://www.nasa.gov/missions/artemis/artemis-ii-map/)*" }, { "id": 20759, "title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "short_title": "AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?", "url_title": "AI Wins Coding Competition in 2024?", "slug": "ai-wins-coding-competition-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T18:44:03.852629Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.493850Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 489, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "๐ค", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "๐ป", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "๐ค", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20759, "title": "Will an AI win a coding contest on Codeforces in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T18:44:03.852629Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T14:17:20.757134Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform โ a mainstay of competitive programming โ AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rรฉmi Leblond.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, credible sources report that an AI has won a coding contest on [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/) in the highest division.", "fine_print": "* To qualify, an AI must generate all code solutions entirely independently, no human editing, direction, or revision of solutions is allowed. For example, human direction iterating on generated output of the form \"X line of code is suboptimal, please revise it\" is not allowed.\n* The AI must top the official leaderboard for the contest, simulating the contest or participating in a virtual round will not be sufficient.\n* There is no requirement on how the generated solutions are processed or submitted except that solutions cannot be edited by humans. An AI generating many solutions with human filtering for the most optimal solution is allowed, and humans may make the submissions to the platform.\n* Currently the highest division on Codeforces is division 1, for users rated 1900+. The AI must win a contest that allows division 1 users to compete. If Codeforces changes its ratings or divisions the AI must win a contest that allows users in the highest division to enter.\n* A qualifying report may be silent on human intervention in the code generation, so long as Metaculus does not have reason to believe that human intervention occurred. Metaculus may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources to resolve if the credibility of the initial reports is in doubt. Where information is conflicting or unclear, Metaculus may make a determination to resolve the question or resolve the question asย **Ambiguous**.", "post_id": 20759, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671910.079695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 485, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671910.079695, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 485, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.008 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.992, 0.008 ], "means": [ 0.04156117547477851 ], "histogram": [ [ 21.778868344552507, 12.349258652188109, 2.3227264795949623, 1.0693222622883534, 0.42583982683619404, 0.34067959536430825, 0.34012523185358745, 0.12345005089352762, 0.2609409335406492, 0.276653875097212, 0.3085089071057913, 7.634168593284274e-07, 0.036179095899018375, 0.0024999213598472345, 3.420246946228617e-05, 0.8430958181537458, 0.00016977246112647346, 0.017469186031782546, 0.0046357419452325984, 0.0, 0.15348378961279477, 0.01396756420576665, 0.06349810155708774, 0.008902810990401801, 1.8918974693388992e-05, 0.421201007101519, 0.0005796531644285303, 0.0009215816611261162, 1.597033877588103e-07, 0.0, 0.02646451172685571, 0.006072604724752456, 5.4165973360989936e-08, 1.063594314953583e-06, 0.0, 0.007934393749084733, 1.708423365309476e-05, 0.0034047697603578767, 0.006209709276892594, 0.0007809093099423216, 0.005990959692136704, 0.0006583478697907213, 0.0001462876137729657, 1.4708849528532186e-06, 3.69316072459543e-07, 0.044917064590740435, 0.0, 4.205721135174024e-06, 0.0, 0.0019440949650593416, 0.0024413039550532944, 3.596769357910142e-05, 2.780894153939372e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 1.004802439585776e-05, 5.535341216236263e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007510846589872936, 0.001860993215803874, 0.0, 8.472922116468318e-06, 0.0, 0.16646944793815763, 0.003555388047018314, 0.0010516069256674312, 0.0, 1.3591557647965476e-05, 0.002183900852783904, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008334237226428348, 0.005853166223240479, 0.5599764728653476, 0.0001762464276225414, 1.6326589108051474e-05, 0.0, 1.9553120692708907e-05, 0.008688973274270363, 0.0, 5.920468870570165e-05, 1.320587068588678e-06, 0.029014337769144145, 0.0002091336415485358, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12967613147215845, 2.2437422465618094e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008567039278624464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34398081814348713 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 89.83176412194952, "peer_score": 41.54597442397286, "coverage": 0.999901424482741, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.999901424482741, "spot_peer_score": 37.97268821704141, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 89.83176412194952, "peer_archived_score": 41.54597442397286, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 37.97268821704141, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289920.439293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 483, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289920.439293, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 483, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9988802103226049, 0.0011197896773951423 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 943, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In February of 2022 Google DeepMind [unveiled AlphaCode](https://deepmind.google/discover/blog/competitive-programming-with-alphacode/), an AI system that it claimed \"writes computer programs at a competitive level\". AlphaCode was assessed on challenges [Codeforces](https://codeforces.com/), a platform for competitive coding with prizes for the best and most efficient solutions to the problems posed. [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2022/2/2/22914085/alphacode-ai-coding-program-automatic-deepmind-codeforce):\n\n>AlphaCode was tested on 10 of challenges that had been tackled by 5,000 users on the Codeforces site. On average, it ranked within the top 54.3 percent of responses, and DeepMind estimates that this gives the system a Codeforces Elo of 1238, which places it within the top 28 percent of users who have competed on the site in the last six months.\n\nIn December of 2023, DeepMind announced AlphaCode 2, powered by its [new Gemini model](https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-gemini-ai/). In an [accompanying technical report](https://storage.googleapis.com/deepmind-media/AlphaCode2/AlphaCode2_Tech_Report.pdf), DeepMind described AlphaCode2 as a significant improvement over the first AlphaCode and said it performed better than 85% of competition participants on Codeforces.\n\n>When evaluated on the Codeforces platform โ a mainstay of competitive programming โ AlphaCode 2 solves 43% of problems within 10 attempts, close to twice as many problems as the original AlphaCode (25%). While its predecessor performed at the level of the median competitor, we estimate that AlphaCode 2 reaches the 85th percentile on average.\n\nSo far AlphaCode results appear to be based on a comparison of its performance to those of contestants without actually entering the contest. [Discussions of the results](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035) by Codeforces users correctly guessed that a user known as AdamentChicken2 was one of the accounts used to submit AlphaCode 2 solutions, which was [confirmed by the user](https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/123035?#comment-1091379) and in an X (formerly Twitter) posts ([1](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732712334626361671), [2](https://twitter.com/RemiLeblond/status/1732677521290789235)) by DeepMind research scientist Rรฉmi Leblond." }, { "id": 20758, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) in 2024?", "short_title": "OpenAI Describes Q* in 2024?", "url_title": "OpenAI Describes Q* in 2024?", "slug": "openai-describes-q-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T16:12:16.925908Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.312750Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altmanโs four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, in calendar year 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q\\* (or Q-Star) **and** publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q\\*.", "fine_print": "* A description of Q\\* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q\\* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q\\* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q\\* in 2024 will resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* A description does **not** need to contain any of the following:\n * A statement that Q\\* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\n * An accompanying release of an AI system known as Q\\* or that has been trained using Q\\*.\n * Any performance results.\n * A paper describing it in detail.\n* A public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q\\* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as **Yes** when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q\\*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q\\*, the question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* The system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will **not** be sufficient.\n* A description specifically of Q\\* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q\\* would not qualify.", "post_id": 20758, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671907.516006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671907.516006, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 618, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.004 ], "centers": [ 0.02 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.98, 0.02 ], "means": [ 0.05261778671771764 ], "histogram": [ [ 15.124194665508552, 7.0427973556365595, 4.206878284276723, 5.204696690338252, 2.8498145652794404, 5.182518071898628, 0.9901192583232162, 0.12955975455185656, 0.2234241657904713, 0.38510465367166424, 2.4070623621547336, 0.002306643975677641, 0.008189625415474034, 0.2984744628960989, 0.00623860013861416, 0.5934747597233005, 0.15382883470719452, 0.06549197029965916, 0.23452210071551208, 0.18903513209882591, 0.7664882390461478, 0.014507488101684986, 0.003212727439357921, 0.0016477006738853492, 0.12113883821412373, 0.003735177189847846, 0.23642303626472339, 0.0035117236022325655, 0.012501606154099863, 0.0, 0.2726650114830386, 1.0790028378379895e-05, 0.0006140976565311939, 0.05703632518852726, 0.17621271197181534, 0.006723290374048263, 1.368718635728165e-07, 0.0010205593114554245, 0.0, 4.978054395044881e-06, 0.027137400078470337, 0.00023645388464355404, 0.004794051916167533, 2.7038380547018305e-10, 0.0032069421272995385, 0.01562299611585833, 0.0005649752785293951, 0.07515143697420448, 0.002705927700482579, 2.9454465091886387e-06, 0.36661099917007756, 0.0, 6.546220839500408e-05, 0.0, 0.0004582394275240296, 0.004559541956250563, 0.004340269709875812, 0.0001775055780880411, 0.0, 3.888388482745459e-07, 0.01429360590828549, 0.10275584605524533, 0.0003975955823552147, 0.0, 0.00017647505040082394, 0.00517808772705774, 0.0022805309818769246, 0.00011945533317274277, 3.2948533967723604e-05, 0.00011049944165699924, 0.0047668148947786725, 2.44514110498953e-05, 8.733812406337541e-07, 0.00016647246443648298, 4.129443845883521e-05, 0.3422300375310932, 9.976535015485322e-06, 0.0010849213415993777, 0.17736619887140034, 3.824414314425298e-06, 0.08016884957798168, 4.271513707254082e-05, 4.598784175853898e-06, 7.700189919767815e-07, 2.064908164126594e-05, 2.027301320914765e-06, 6.166543231500808e-05, 0.0, 2.340004630635361e-07, 0.0, 0.00035011056229346054, 4.7847079165605414e-06, 5.9746346879593815e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0006855635877699897, 0.0003232879572713849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.007300803689925691 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.28310499028391, "peer_score": 51.67627387797022, "coverage": 0.9998974679814885, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998974679814885, "spot_peer_score": 41.69729536560886, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "baseline_archived_score": 63.28310499028391, "peer_archived_score": 51.67627387797022, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.69729536560886, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289104.322143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 611, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289104.322143, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 611, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.948123761207921, 0.051876238792079074 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 18, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1591, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altmanโs four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 20757, "title": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "short_title": "EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?", "url_title": "EV Sales Share Above 11% in US in 2024?", "slug": "ev-sales-share-above-11-in-us-in-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T05:21:33.276584Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.087026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 61, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T01:54:00Z", 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"header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20757, "title": "Will the 2024 light duty electric vehicle sales share exceed 11% in the US through November 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T05:21:33.276584Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-20T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-23T01:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-23T01:58:29.061037Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Electric vehicles have seen significant sales growth in recent years, with plug-in vehicles (PEVs) making up less than 3% of light duty vehicle (LDV) sales in 2020, a figure that [has grown to above 9%](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates) through November 2023.\n\nPEVs consist of both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, for the total period made up of the months of January 2024 through November 2024, inclusive, the sales share of light duty plug-in vehicles (PEVs) is greater than 11% in the United States according to [data published by Argonne National Laboratory](https://www.anl.gov/esia/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates).", "fine_print": "* PEVs include both battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs).\n* Specifically, light duty vehicle sales figures published by Argonne in the [monthly historical data](https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data) will be used when data for November 2024 first becomes available. The percentage will be computed by using the total PEV sales from January through November 2024 compared to total light duty vehicle (LDV) sales over the same period. 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"2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-14T17:31:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows:\n\n>A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, โan extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international responseโ. This definition implies a situation that is:\n>\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected Stateโs national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nThe International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.\n\nThere [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. The first was swine flu in 2009, and the most recent was Mpox in 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the World Health Organization (WHO) declares a new Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) in calendar year 2024.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20754, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723656652.291464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 486, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723656652.291464, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 486, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.07 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.17312505204790427 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.6820978681154246, 1.0994834088477503, 0.3200953202891841, 0.889778391950746, 1.3531097227448927, 4.122338595062918, 1.6684855751536836, 1.1502142783494573, 1.2571890553721516, 2.543778490854047, 6.434753479620978, 0.5271275347549162, 1.701756185735181, 1.6483004032027355, 0.406599923924159, 3.363925493997243, 0.5049120905562168, 0.37296993829176206, 0.03265571177861232, 0.6866700974463771, 2.8536652884663853, 0.217159503481487, 0.9829680851712251, 0.11106547966796405, 3.529558638106898e-06, 1.3520976002118252, 0.04776306215161907, 0.012746070656677289, 0.6795999563456283, 0.0, 0.758868635850412, 0.03683964245425729, 0.0068682713852708235, 0.032823673922063874, 0.003665351571592204, 0.9551559676477527, 8.100456759775059e-07, 0.4505111626452941, 0.0005810162386383415, 0.0012932415711059625, 0.6788445277646429, 0.012142736946265484, 0.005069850970692812, 0.00018562470493675213, 8.282818472491296e-06, 0.015383327463087723, 2.6029438981072044e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4811455867420366, 0.015656617921267275, 0.0, 0.0002984167949528438, 0.0, 0.01890157914270045, 0.02789745990024343, 0.00010163806681924167, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008761823551363861, 4.813504868253673e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001976801411622161, 0.010540271254144949, 0.026375541192893218, 0.0005613376810691198, 0.0, 0.0021187913230730332, 0.0, 0.0010984430912856318, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9986859512372257e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0014898339888616819, 0.0, 0.46691360834870976, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.8397651878243735e-06, 0.5373409877891049, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.017022710249089378, 1.0, 0.0007884175006118531 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.309434769029326, "coverage": 0.6191453508307359, "baseline_score": -89.78086248894603, "spot_peer_score": 39.9798193980769, "peer_archived_score": 3.309434769029326, "baseline_archived_score": -89.78086248894603, "spot_peer_archived_score": 39.9798193980769 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723656652.371689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 487, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723656652.371689, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 487, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9011713328746369, 0.0988286671253631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 17, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 917, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The World Health Organization (WHO) [describes](https://www.who.int/news-room/questions-and-answers/item/emergencies-international-health-regulations-and-emergency-committees) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) as follows:\n\n>A PHEIC is defined in the IHR (2005) as, โan extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international responseโ. This definition implies a situation that is:\n>\n> * serious, sudden, unusual or unexpected;\n> * carries implications for public health beyond the affected Stateโs national border; and\n> * may require immediate international action.\n\nThe International Health Regulations (IHR) Emergency Committee (EC) meets to monitor health risks and provide advice to [WHO Director-General](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Director-General_of_the_World_Health_Organization), who makes the final determination of whether to declare a PHEIC.\n\nThere [have been seven](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_health_emergency_of_international_concern#Declarations) PHEIC declarations since the IHR was established in 2005. The first was swine flu in 2009, and the most recent was Mpox in 2022." }, { "id": 20753, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?", "short_title": "Netanyahu PM Through 2024?", "url_title": "Netanyahu PM Through 2024?", "slug": "netanyahu-pm-through-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:38:48.102055Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.837701Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 783, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20753, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel throughout 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:38:48.102055Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:46:59.020159Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "If Benjamin Netanyahu has remained the Prime Minister of Israel for the entire duration of calendar year 2024, this question will resolve as **YES** on January 1, 2025. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point during 2024, this question resolves **NO**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20753, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735683698.941544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 777, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735683698.941544, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 777, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.97 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9687208298916433 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.448189701794732e-06, 0.11166650782010085, 1.4882830249035326e-06, 0.0, 1.2477347249470202e-05, 0.003117739336148731, 0.00016369990255310138, 0.0, 5.877462845279067e-07, 0.0018597881048569357, 0.001360792341982467, 0.0004082521833078034, 8.654380151358852e-06, 0.0005403867803396236, 0.0007941180928678466, 0.00025941639992760796, 0.00011699240885741577, 2.8121832787763385e-05, 1.641869260061322e-08, 0.0004201207082887917, 0.003951110274849064, 7.613276299585012e-07, 0.0, 0.0005006131841065936, 0.004120904913123321, 0.004160827517199648, 0.001920441752029609, 5.1464112572445696e-05, 0.008623851744439078, 0.0, 0.0032636648762391102, 0.0006868054816352036, 9.785732590760277e-06, 0.018045073045464908, 6.938752744204472e-05, 0.00494408580391275, 0.002358926901544356, 0.009111915808851817, 0.003112233201600623, 1.828550157568801e-06, 0.03241523110253605, 0.0022756728262312517, 0.006138663510944981, 0.00928000939264283, 0.006749164272437774, 0.0032397652418522335, 0.0010092550786612654, 0.000281472165173373, 0.0, 0.009838873487536773, 0.05696937046410343, 0.016306168046793072, 0.00011348948195645411, 0.015832756260338608, 0.009482131018035323, 0.021378441056218094, 0.0007497041415495064, 0.0012539626983746343, 0.0, 0.004261022531236007, 0.04360387538584811, 0.002423907123851797, 0.008599691039307389, 0.00036283202696918784, 4.291581425545275e-09, 0.08178473228274277, 0.024043333090601172, 0.017198131201211667, 0.0052640088923801235, 0.013598786462544386, 0.03649984867899065, 0.00010745642468662852, 0.0018689022046508158, 0.005793295398615136, 0.000117508565709769, 0.21041160592809477, 0.012524864205655059, 0.17897641955253674, 6.006354651868072e-09, 0.02950698081715977, 0.798830527993807, 0.05567592038427932, 0.019174254782868033, 0.2135824447885504, 0.021197003945768015, 0.5638230568845184, 0.09073729039617998, 0.01838654355296402, 0.27518720906537514, 0.2614983665759647, 2.0957607882841325, 0.24218408296366584, 0.6279307408549253, 0.19805472913927652, 1.0024643470928711, 2.32212859748883, 2.043255655973361, 2.027429820614736, 5.974490535773759, 34.34318468627827 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 39.65564343721717, "peer_score": 38.731498924312874, "coverage": 0.9999337532913953, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999337532913953, "spot_peer_score": 12.98004490200633, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344504996, "baseline_archived_score": 39.65564343721717, "peer_archived_score": 38.731498924312874, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.98004490200633, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344504996 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728292163.347443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 765, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728292163.347443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 765, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.04883521430391202, 0.951164785696088 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 40, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2139, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks." }, { "id": 20752, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "short_title": "Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024", "url_title": "Russo-Ukraine cease-fire in 2024", "slug": "russo-ukraine-cease-fire-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:24:49.492810Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.198786Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 303, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 1142, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "๐บ๐ฆโ๏ธ", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "๐", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20752, "title": "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T04:24:49.492810Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-30T18:01:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-01T11:07:37.520907Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity.\n\nRecent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdomโs Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral cease-fire begins at any point between December 23rd, 2023 and December 31, 2024 and stands for at least 30 days. (The latest possible ceasefire, by this criterion, begins December 31, 2024 and stands through January 30, 2025.) A ceasefire is bilateral if it applies to the majorities of combatants on both the Russian and Ukrainian sides, respectively. A cease-fire is deemed to have stood as long as no reliable sources report that the cease-fire has broken down or is no longer effective. This question will resolve as No if no cease-fire has gone into effect and been sustained for 30 days by January 30th, 2025.\n\nThe ceasefire must apply to all military operations in all official and disputed Ukrainian and Russian territory. In other words, a limited ceasefire (such as granting safety to humanitarian corridors or specific regions) is insufficient to resolve the question as Yes.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20752, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735697251.669679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735697251.669679, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1135, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.033232642844289874 ], "histogram": [ [ 39.239668974656226, 14.727857659540053, 3.3969396276488415, 1.1723389147398482, 0.22219984791042985, 2.3219985693127003, 0.09437608077198895, 0.14063939602213263, 0.06046352148639196, 0.021204488299667333, 1.195208954344986, 0.07567210236977556, 0.13436167397420734, 0.0034786074937845387, 0.32733734241107565, 0.2632729781588651, 0.10201272075793164, 0.005003889314895836, 8.10583172100263e-05, 3.042812755148003e-05, 0.17934081706949773, 2.099977556735762e-06, 6.922034647683577e-05, 7.884377919813609e-07, 2.1029000350116103e-06, 0.04102477316670575, 1.2796938867438462e-05, 4.711872456531647e-06, 4.4202265254099855e-05, 0.0, 0.010433234722007868, 1.6679867337596186e-07, 2.3788322204234074e-05, 0.0005731048533992827, 2.6709184244839726e-06, 2.115025877966592e-05, 0.15534604828228185, 8.24234136129819e-08, 1.3068337253702362e-09, 2.3771492631825087e-06, 0.21252020164821475, 0.0, 6.3843278803943315e-06, 0.0, 1.5632016310743996e-07, 4.19637494017629e-08, 0.0, 4.4547649667429583e-08, 0.0, 5.706138418676757e-07, 0.0029483284340184597, 0.0, 5.967525897143277e-10, 2.327729375715118e-05, 0.0, 0.20290704731972325, 1.0988195257695604e-05, 2.218684961052645e-12, 0.0, 0.000362834553747798, 0.5184022818331496, 1.9415177828110424e-09, 3.083039609843048e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6534067467933637e-06, 0.0030912245025661957, 1.534932736039366e-05, 1.2725213332450073e-11, 2.0769899124765595e-08, 0.0004128314099995039, 2.2027967915886174e-06, 3.21687202763029e-05, 0.0, 2.0778626906258446e-07, 4.801405254658835e-05, 3.579572050284643e-05, 0.002275822912596308, 0.0145869673644274, 0.0, 0.9284164627867245, 0.0, 8.16636553077236e-09, 0.0, 1.0762985674801747e-07, 9.6140820266708e-15, 7.467287852087039e-14, 6.247324974504374e-09, 2.545331540667403e-13, 0.0, 3.487874451205796e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007507195158433541, 9.429519614382538e-13, 0.10285583742716621 ] ] }, "score_data": { "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998973144999285, "peer_score": 24.622798024295662, "coverage": 0.9246758749726977, "baseline_score": 85.3853943613867, "spot_peer_score": 19.821520343117935, "spot_baseline_score": 71.36958148433591, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 24.622798024295662, "baseline_archived_score": 85.3853943613867, "spot_peer_archived_score": 19.821520343117935, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 71.36958148433591 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287929.734328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287929.734328, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 1117, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 46, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 2546, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of December 2023, the situation in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict remains complex and dynamic, with no clear indications of an imminent bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement. The war, which began when Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, has continued with varying intensity.\n\nRecent developments include ongoing hostilities in various regions, including Kherson and the industrial city of Avdiivka, indicating that the conflict remains active with no significant moves towards a ceasefire or peace talks. The Ukrainian military has adopted a more defensive posture after failing to achieve a major breakthrough in their months-long counteroffensive, as [noted by the United Kingdomโs Defence Ministry](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/analysts-ukraines-forces-pivoting-defense-after-russia-held-105807988)." }, { "id": 20751, "title": "In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?", "short_title": "Supreme Court Change in 2024?", "url_title": "Supreme Court Change in 2024?", "slug": "supreme-court-change-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T03:54:50.525649Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.009079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 515, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "โ๏ธ", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "๐๏ธ", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20751, "title": "In 2024 will there be any change in the composition of the US Supreme Court?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T03:54:50.525649Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T04:54:27.497218Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of the end of 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court comprises nine justices with lifetime appointments. The Court's composition includes:\n\n1. Chief Justice John Roberts (appointed 2005)\n2. Justice Clarence Thomas (appointed 1991)\n3. Justice Samuel Alito (appointed 2006)\n4. Justice Sonia Sotomayor (appointed 2009)\n5. Justice Elena Kagan (appointed 2010)\n6. Justice Neil Gorsuch (appointed 2017)\n7. Justice Brett Kavanaugh (appointed 2018)\n8. Justice Amy Coney Barrett (appointed 2020)\n9. Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson (appointed 2022)\n\nThe makeup of the U.S. Supreme Court plays a crucial role in shaping the country's legal landscape and has a significant impact on American society. The lifelong appointments of the justices mean that any changes in the Court's composition, due to retirement, death, or impeachment, can lead to substantial and enduring influences on both legal and societal matters in the United States.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if any of the nine current justices retires, dies, is impeached, or resigns. Additionally, a change in size of the Supreme Court would also qualify, such as adding or removing members. In situations like a justice announcing retirement but serving beyond 2024, the resolution is based on the status as of December 31, 2024. If the justice is still serving on this date, the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20751, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735671857.314453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 511, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.035 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735671857.314453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 511, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.035 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.03507474364985665 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.922629778319216, 7.5536182068787765, 3.1462704042684257, 1.36050763554811, 1.647338205505031, 1.7236417850566446, 2.1512652803879373, 0.6873049625077956, 0.18262370894039348, 0.11395510017058819, 1.7555338560317846, 0.2078641864015949, 0.2797865386220558, 0.21038246975039984, 0.10670548532449063, 0.3071106922092875, 0.0012761952743604846, 0.18891283473683074, 0.06835611187657875, 0.04858443912688838, 0.20769295099312218, 0.00027222601242572975, 0.00018825306730037023, 0.059183151729301074, 3.892661103850002e-06, 0.0342194048722008, 6.483504707681576e-05, 0.0001231293541763391, 0.01848224400797144, 0.0, 0.036484808322022305, 0.0036575813492291773, 2.495255544566344e-08, 1.076362833963337e-05, 0.010783869658199156, 0.04888310522079689, 0.10712484773401786, 0.0, 7.94848971966372e-06, 0.007696193644650991, 0.007389288142175371, 1.3331007077427408e-08, 0.0, 3.306274680837188e-05, 0.0, 0.01040318150929669, 5.187871657880338e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000211101079974809, 0.004135989158492546, 1.103399495204591e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00845705215781553, 0.004355085119036033, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0002447064848617299, 0.1231451245215237, 6.459751387866476e-05, 0.0, 0.0022841453268512826, 3.98738646854648e-08, 0.00453053849477107, 3.7332904391235506e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0042749865081424445, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1170768908088265e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4555048799471356e-06, 0.0046477593220401155, 0.00037399503684774004, 6.421258411883995e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5319380246334913e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1903776105503957e-08, 0.0, 7.2465903473035605e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.339316086196247 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 86.35480502662848, "peer_score": 23.55374653096506, "coverage": 0.9998780968000451, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998780968000451, "spot_peer_score": 21.092643663426966, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "baseline_archived_score": 86.35480502662848, "peer_archived_score": 23.55374653096506, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.092643663426966, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288988.30233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 509, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288988.30233, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 509, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9964756270344269, 0.003524372965573116 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 15, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1052, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of the end of 2023, the U.S. Supreme Court comprises nine justices with lifetime appointments. 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The lifelong appointments of the justices mean that any changes in the Court's composition, due to retirement, death, or impeachment, can lead to substantial and enduring influences on both legal and societal matters in the United States." }, { "id": 20750, "title": "Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?", "short_title": "Doomsday Clock in January 2024?", "url_title": "Doomsday Clock in January 2024?", "slug": "doomsday-clock-in-january-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-21T03:46:47.825045Z", "published_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.992345Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T15:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T15:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 248, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2861, "type": "tournament", "name": "๐ Q1 2024 Quarterly Cup ๐", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q1", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/qc-hires-scaled_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-01-08T07:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-04-09T04:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-04-03T22:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-01-04T19:09:53.546375Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-22T12:37:37.454166Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20750, "title": "Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight in January 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-21T03:46:47.825045Z", "open_time": "2024-01-08T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-09T21:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-09T21:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T15:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-23T15:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-23T15:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-01-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*Much of the text from this question is taken from this previous question: [Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14601/bas-doomsday-clock-closer-to-midnight-in-2023/)*\n\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the [*Bulletin of Atomic Scientists*](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was \"seven minutes to midnight.\" The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of the *Bulletin*.\n\nThe clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict. It now includes other factors, including climate change and \"disruptive technologies\".\n\nThe clock's setting is determined by the *Bulletin's* [Security and Science Board](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/), typically once each year in January. It is currently at [90 seconds to midnight](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the *Bulletin of Atomic Scientists* sets the Doomsday Clock to any setting fewer than 90 seconds to midnight, before February 1, 2024. If the clock is set at or above 90 seconds to midnight, this question will resolve as **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20750, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705789530.919331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705789530.919331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.58 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.42000000000000004, 0.58 ], "means": [ 0.555666776568045 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.06839743125059906, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7028684002941104, 0.0, 0.023564457318033017, 2.8760342223516648e-05, 0.0, 0.2325246904274491, 0.004498841700467464, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0030752469362819064, 0.012955155045536343, 0.00013743477079689506, 5.955370784733528e-07, 0.0, 0.44338304078991897, 0.0027417525500930936, 0.0, 0.00018250070810145802, 0.001310191238443052, 0.3457243728281662, 0.3741147584754343, 0.0, 0.007216668049164313, 0.0, 0.11579656523459822, 0.002608142164199298, 0.0, 0.041671450684493516, 0.4949788086009633, 0.5945047358516498, 0.0, 0.094564715248531, 0.014233588571305722, 0.3619592282195918, 0.6948599310242188, 0.0, 0.11688727860738232, 0.5773355757436016, 0.2996400473021779, 0.012470094397743624, 0.0, 0.3265158096988012, 1.2723534557863243, 0.1403060713961784, 4.038318628157938, 0.7463135563019072, 1.0883146968554722, 0.05427140127527919, 0.3843721305633043, 0.4709334976507153, 0.8045801532910326, 0.8894869809243865, 0.0, 0.21688388197816133, 3.042363618738901, 1.442488235339587, 0.0, 0.7494947017224501, 0.01753921869343806, 2.3878866338378937, 0.10717188951816123, 0.006117861355620733, 0.36168511554212923, 0.0, 1.3317778180898672, 0.00010199597321724216, 1.7519706502952976e-05, 0.010855932353736565, 0.12280051576958625, 1.3180864040688336, 0.0014612379512357343, 0.0007882537667074286, 0.9389399013668683, 0.0, 0.22565252105932815, 0.774196803764569, 0.16454944396421586, 3.9356651541030213e-07, 0.0, 0.00916740488958739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49055837160754184, 0.001627619607655691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00033584577479117553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4161274941269475 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 21.150946418605173, "coverage": 0.9999693178371749, "baseline_score": -5.195182040184237, "spot_peer_score": 4.811376064213479, "peer_archived_score": 21.150946418605173, "baseline_archived_score": -5.195182040184237, "spot_peer_archived_score": 4.811376064213479 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1705789530.961614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1705789530.961614, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 248, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5441461176718275, 0.4558538823281725 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 27, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 513, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*Much of the text from this question is taken from this previous question: [Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/14601/bas-doomsday-clock-closer-to-midnight-in-2023/)*\n\nThe [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the [*Bulletin of Atomic Scientists*](https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock), the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was \"seven minutes to midnight.\" The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of the *Bulletin*.\n\nThe clock began as a warning of the threat of a large-scale nuclear conflict. It now includes other factors, including climate change and \"disruptive technologies\".\n\nThe clock's setting is determined by the *Bulletin's* [Security and Science Board](https://thebulletin.org/about-us/science-and-security-board/), typically once each year in January. 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Typically, electors are pledged to vote for a specific candidate, but in principle it is possible (though illegal in some states) for elector to vote for any candidate.\n\nAn elector who votes for a candidate other than the one that they are pledged to is known as a [faithless elector](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_elector).\n\nIn 2016, there were [ten](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Faithless_electors_in_the_2016_United_States_presidential_election) faithless electors, seven of which were not invalidated; this resulted in one electoral vote for Bernie Sanders, one for Faith Spotted Eagle, three for Colin Powell, one for Ron Paul, and one for John Kasich." }, { "id": 20748, "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?", "short_title": "Semaglutide Withdrawn in 2024?", "url_title": "Semaglutide Withdrawn in 2024?", "slug": "semaglutide-withdrawn-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", 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"is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20748, "title": "Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of semaglutide for the treatment of obesity or diabetes in 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T22:46:37.736122Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T04:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-05T05:01:18.795259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2014, liraglutide wasย [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later byย [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes aboutย [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1)ย [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158)ย of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs,ย [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726)ย another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses ofย [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.ย [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesityย [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly.ย [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)ย discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk ofย [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272)ย andย [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109)ย cancer in lab rodents. Yetย [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z)ย including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observationalย [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)ย are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk.\n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutideย [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118)ย [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141)ย by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dyingย [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing andย [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563).", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if either the US Food and Drug Administration or the European Medicines Agency withdraw approval for semaglutide (AKA Wegovy, Ozempic, or any other brand name for semaglutide) before January 1, 2025. The stated reason for withdrawal must include concerns of safety or harmful side effects.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20748, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735651748.142426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735651748.142426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.997, 0.003 ], "means": [ 0.009999525800113922 ], "histogram": [ [ 24.381043114040523, 10.081986208953731, 2.810620693168957, 1.016975226954512, 0.14631040469266846, 0.6838792594896654, 0.21823748557505468, 0.012019034116643472, 4.436207827289842e-05, 0.0046026011993571085, 0.3033323377202894, 0.0005595886960511741, 0.10575904554379918, 0.002104813879278443, 0.002575460416851048, 0.06047761259778828, 0.02507962103290386, 6.319029179679161e-05, 0.01980618452926343, 3.545547274692338e-08, 0.029832754088746204, 0.021301121549675252, 5.485646953308483e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0037849812584713734, 0.0, 0.00030010336138294144, 0.003164071972856757, 0.0, 0.005556073656237416, 0.004987331445329258, 0.0041023226340808445, 0.007339268458987869, 0.0003546088600470341, 0.003868830448416503, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.251179865119903e-06, 1.057822696071232e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.009399840550191683, 0.024174361182349842, 2.3440751020040532e-05, 5.245110624153645e-06, 0.0, 0.021450950539850078, 0.00015679999341773558, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024893928544467083, 4.376245949434164e-05, 9.825180878529697e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.005150976587841347, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 4.632629336367782e-08, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 8.498469955489839e-07 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.72976702830591, "peer_score": 12.995873942663923, "coverage": 0.9998882200945691, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998882200945691, "spot_peer_score": 13.15775773793341, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "baseline_archived_score": 96.72976702830591, "peer_archived_score": 12.995873942663923, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 13.15775773793341, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289022.773124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 425, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289022.773124, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 425, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 9, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 771, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2014, liraglutide wasย [approved as a drug for weight loss](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2014/206321Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA), then later byย [the European Medicines Agency (EMA) in 2015](https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/saxenda). It is a once-daily injected drug based on the gut hormone glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), whose biology has turned out to be a goldmine for the medical management of obesity and type 2 diabetes. Liraglutide, which was developed by Novo Nordisk, causes aboutย [7%](https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(09)61375-1)ย [loss](https://doi.org/10.1038/ijo.2011.158)ย of body weight in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.\n\nBy tweaking the design of GLP-1-based drugs,ย [Novo Nordisk discovered](https://doi.org/10.1021/acs.jmedchem.5b00726)ย another drug that had a much longer half-life in the blood and a substantially larger impact on body weight: semaglutide. Semaglutide only requires one injection per week and produces average weight losses ofย [15](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)-[18](https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2021.3224)% in people with obesity when paired with diet and exercise advice.ย [Initially approved at lower doses](https://www.accessdata.fda.gov/drugsatfda_docs/nda/2017/209637Orig1s000TOC.cfm)ย for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA approved a higher dose (2.4 mg) for the treatment of obesityย [in June 2021](https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/fda-approves-new-drug-treatment-chronic-weight-management-first-2014). It's marketed under the brand name Wegovy in the US, and Ozempic or Rybelsus in other markets.\n\nGiven the checkered history of weight loss drugs, it's reasonable to be cautious about their safety. Semaglutide and related drugs often cause unpleasant gastrointestinal side effects like nausea, heartburn, diarrhea, constipation, fatigue, and headache, but these are typically mild and transient if the dose is started low and escalated slowly.ย [Few people](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa2032183)ย discontinue semaglutide due to side effects.\n\nSome studies have suggested that this class of drugs may increase the risk ofย [thyroid](https://doi.org/10.1210/en.2009-1272)ย andย [pancreatic](https://doi.org/10.2337/db11-1109)ย cancer in lab rodents. Yetย [randomized controlled trials](https://doi.org/10.1007/s12020-019-02055-z)ย including 64,000 people with type 2 diabetes have not observed an increased risk of cancer, overall or at any specific site in humans. These trials are limited in duration and don't yet have enough people to reliably identify modest increases in the risk of low-frequency outcomes like thyroid and pancreatic cancer. Observationalย [monitoring data](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)ย are mixed but have not provided a clear signal of increased risk.\n\nImportantly, trials suggest that semaglutideย [reduces major](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1901118)ย [cardiovascular events](http://doi.org/10.1056/NEJMoa1607141)ย by about one quarter, similar to cholesterol-lowering statin drugs. Furthermore, across seven trials in people with type 2 diabetes, semaglutide and related drugs reduce the overall risk of dyingย [by 12%](https://doi.org/10.1016/s2213-8587(19)30249-9). These findings are reassuring, but monitoring is ongoing andย [some concern remains](https://doi.org/10.3389/fendo.2021.645563)." }, { "id": 20747, "title": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?", "short_title": "Bitcoin up over 2024", "url_title": "Bitcoin up over 2024", "slug": "bitcoin-up-over-2024", "author_id": 133407, "author_username": "jleibowich", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:27:56.116921Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.905202Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 34, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 719, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "๐ผ", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3693, "name": "Cryptocurrencies", "slug": "cryptocurrencies", "emoji": "๐ฐ", "description": "Cryptocurrencies", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20747, "title": "Will Bitcoin go up over 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:27:56.116921Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:50:50.047422Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the [highest valuation](https://coinmarketcap.com/), increased over 50% from mid-October 2023 until late December of 2023. While Bitcoin is still short of its November 2021 high of over $64,000, the recent rally has renewed interest in cryptocurrency and left [some analysts](https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/10/24/a-wall-street-giant-has-declared-crypto-winter-over-as-bitcoin-smashes-30000-and-the-price-of-ethereum-and-xrp-suddenly-soar/?sh=3a357ea2917f) wondering if the \"crypto winter\" is over.\n\nFor [reference](https://bitcoinmagazine.com/guides/bitcoin-price-history), from the start of 2010 until the end of 2022, Bitcoin's price increased 10 of those years and decreased 3 of those years.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **YES** if the last measured price of Bitcoin (in USD) on CoinMarketCap on December 31st, 2024 (UTC) is greater than the earliest measured price of Bitcoin on [CoinMarketCap](https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/) on January 1st, 2024 (UTC). Otherwise, the question will resolve **NO**.", "fine_print": "If CoinMarketCap ceases to exist before January 1st, 2025, another website will be used to track the price of Bitcoin.", "post_id": 20747, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654573.009996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 716, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654573.009996, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 716, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9751927577843702 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.020230636175932078, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.863888372808807e-06, 0.0, 4.870386433684044e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0015248947185328972, 0.0, 4.713112518974969e-07, 0.0, 1.0881280790352158e-05, 0.0005408379107764345, 8.363302715678605e-06, 0.0, 3.504919209180806e-08, 3.8958790102690986e-07, 0.00046352769023267704, 3.275353720799386e-05, 0.0007958051551714525, 0.0, 0.0, 0.002564208483665526, 0.05036555991472637, 8.390202577012222e-07, 1.3529812756857763e-11, 0.0, 0.004802377952423413, 0.0, 7.291414382050814e-05, 6.5310767295062434e-06, 0.0014369647746524975, 0.001178512270837011, 0.0, 1.6412334389916562e-07, 0.0, 0.0011087325740990993, 0.02771141859479794, 0.000665453999634485, 0.0003537430697134818, 1.1510308770121853e-10, 9.431150157827552e-07, 0.0002650806788222581, 0.0813117281979668, 0.0011613451652209893, 0.0, 0.0016515397680654925, 0.07470028681580045, 0.01679733972445424, 0.0007471867878638488, 1.3824169756982492e-06, 0.00015287740213463337, 0.012239507317138052, 0.024164080732940085, 0.00040902245841872745, 0.0, 0.09012255480904043, 0.027878920598546512, 0.0009685769132091243, 0.026284274979805775, 0.001960913122143711, 0.0098490020574882, 0.15413995811538722, 0.13905256398173396, 0.0023345166008119722, 0.00803190125845117, 0.005811084278864932, 0.17282518025255555, 0.0010911201184881179, 0.0006658038214429311, 2.8255172486412594e-05, 0.0001309271685840951, 0.1479023266942385, 0.03995919934958739, 0.06622173093334666, 0.0035350066752022325, 0.08155789014563943, 0.47289558344962873, 0.11171450741343722, 0.03147821059393059, 0.10164403190528883, 0.1374604184573677, 0.2655362302929324, 0.24796779214326364, 0.17966148744642924, 0.11541320075550482, 0.23687523708406558, 0.5048967697672821, 0.3702362476777067, 0.16999340982422842, 0.1444096215825596, 0.518681303927357, 1.6164059001450535, 0.2906028671165175, 1.6767223727969727, 6.142823105093649, 37.37464671417828 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 70.77145502590972, "peer_score": 28.62449122024512, "coverage": 0.99993755872727, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.99993755872727, "spot_peer_score": 7.068867950503453, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "baseline_archived_score": 70.77145502590972, "peer_archived_score": 28.62449122024512, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.068867950503453, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289791.820359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 700, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289791.820359, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 700, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1296457595880568, 0.8703542404119432 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1691, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency with the [highest valuation](https://coinmarketcap.com/), increased over 50% from mid-October 2023 until late December of 2023. 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It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named \"Oumuamua\" which stands for \"advance scout\" in Hawaiian. \n\nHowever, the brightness of Oumuamua faded so quickly, that it became apparent that it moves really fast (26 km/s) and thus will relatively soon [leave the solar system never to return](https://medium.com/@astrowright/oumuamua-natural-or-artificial-f744b70f40d5). \n\n[Andrew Cote](https://twitter.com/Andercot) and [Tony Dunn](https://twitter.com/tony873004) have come up with a Project Lyra - [exploring the possibility](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) of meeting this strange visitor from space. The idea is to chase Oumuamua using [a couple of hardcore gravity assists](https://twitter.com/tony873004/status/1732961608606056718), first sending a spacecraft to Jupiter, causing it to drop to the Sun for an Oberth maneuver.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if before January 1, 2030, any national space agency (such as NASA) or private space company (such as Space X) announces plans to launch a spacecraft with the goal to reach Oumuamua before it leaves the solar system. The precise execution of this mission can be different from that proposed by [Project Lyra](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email), just the objective should be the same - meeting Ouma. The mission itself can be scheduled for later, the question resolves if there is an official announcement or any type of public statement.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20742, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756637168.099355, "end_time": 1758726315.985923, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.027 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756637168.099355, "end_time": 1758726315.985923, "forecaster_count": 21, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.002 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.027 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.998, 0.002 ], "means": [ 0.026900490525969538 ], "histogram": [ [ 4.465180978847865, 0.07557908443735797, 1.2819710410581078, 0.6367595139337041, 0.0, 0.5409519850320235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24164198844540966, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17305452335961788, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17196501506414014, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05781396708726085, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.042072450598259724, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288281.834178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288281.834178, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9862650629418866, 0.01373493705811335 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 54, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Oumuamua is a first ever confirmed \"interstellar object\" to enter Solar system](https://www.ted.com/talks/karen_j_meech_the_story_of_oumuamua_the_first_visitor_from_another_star_system?language=en). It was detected by Hawaiian telescope PAN_STARRS2 on October 18, 2017 and was named \"Oumuamua\" which stands for \"advance scout\" in Hawaiian. \n\nHowever, the brightness of Oumuamua faded so quickly, that it became apparent that it moves really fast (26 km/s) and thus will relatively soon [leave the solar system never to return](https://medium.com/@astrowright/oumuamua-natural-or-artificial-f744b70f40d5). \n\n[Andrew Cote](https://twitter.com/Andercot) and [Tony Dunn](https://twitter.com/tony873004) have come up with a Project Lyra - [exploring the possibility](https://twitter.com/Andercot/status/1734330667323052171?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email) of meeting this strange visitor from space. The idea is to chase Oumuamua using [a couple of hardcore gravity assists](https://twitter.com/tony873004/status/1732961608606056718), first sending a spacecraft to Jupiter, causing it to drop to the Sun for an Oberth maneuver." }, { "id": 20741, "title": "Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?", "short_title": "Apple Watch Ban Takes Effect?", "url_title": "Apple Watch Ban Takes Effect?", "slug": "apple-watch-ban-takes-effect", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:19:50.850296Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.128406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", 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"actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent):\n\n>In October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission [ruled](https://www.usitc.gov/system/files?file=secretary/fed_reg_notices/337/337_1276_notice10262023sgl.pdf) that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\n\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would [halt sales of the Apple watches](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import). [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import):\n\n>.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US โ the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\n>\n>The patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases โ one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC โclaiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>Right now, itโs unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. Itโs currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so weโll have to see if things change between now and then.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 27, 2023, credible sources report that the ban on imports of some Apple watches containing blood oxygen sensors has taken effect.", "fine_print": "* The ban on imports will be considered to have taken effect if the International Trade Commission order [becomes final](https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2310-006a_3.pdf), or in other words if after the presidential review period the President has not disapproved the order or if the President has affirmatively approved it.", "post_id": 20741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703457379.819298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703457379.819298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9267860296365648 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 1.0468168270490275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 1.0376619766251902, 0.0, 0.25470072851094916, 0.0, 1.4099174699753658, 3.0949924824689568, 1.9024969745834084, 0.0, 0.7203625667500725, 1.193198191459424 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.073161363047927, "coverage": 0.9995481820027032, "baseline_score": 78.10415587669213, "spot_peer_score": 12.066017296652715, "peer_archived_score": 6.073161363047927, "baseline_archived_score": 78.10415587669213, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.066017296652715 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703457379.841753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703457379.841753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.041326538260959333, 0.9586734617390407 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent):\n\n>In October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission [ruled](https://www.usitc.gov/system/files?file=secretary/fed_reg_notices/337/337_1276_notice10262023sgl.pdf) that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\n\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would [halt sales of the Apple watches](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import). [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import):\n\n>.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US โ the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\n>\n>The patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases โ one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC โclaiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>Right now, itโs unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. Itโs currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so weโll have to see if things change between now and then." } ] }
