Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2880
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2900", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2860", "results": [ { "id": 26139, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-kalenjin-athletes-win-both-the-mens-and-womens-marathon-races-at-the-2024-paris-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.425968Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.079872Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 33, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26139, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.425968Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T11:12:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots.", "fine_print": "The athletes do not have to compete for Kenya nor be entirely Kalenjin; as long as they have part of their origin in the ethnic group, this counts.", "post_id": 26139, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140057.773612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140057.773612, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.72 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5930676206722234 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9160279542388619, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1976105664975124, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1349426696819013, 0.0, 0.34848960163546905, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.037065342746035734, 0.2801509562747174, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6160959649941371, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7654150283970271, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018087904224968542, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0086988656529743, 0.2561175077238105, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.389223550072833, 0.0, 0.0, 0.48810492374921693, 0.0, 0.9781962331125931, 0.0, 0.11777121751898838, 0.31286391742790765, 0.0, 0.6382293363986749, 0.8379487954001852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6356799761664509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023645968432686428, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140057.800847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140057.800847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 33, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4224262898167531, 0.5775737101832469 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, dominate racing in distances 800m and longer. Will they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?" }, { "id": 26138, "title": "Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-canadian-dollars-to-us-dollar-spot-exchange-rate-exceed-13600-on-friday-september-20-2024-according-to-fred", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.255529Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.613035Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 32, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26138, "title": "Will the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate exceed 1.3600 on Friday September 20, 2024, according to FRED?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:11:00.255529Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-23T23:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-23T23:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On July 5, 2024, this value was 1.3631. In the past 3 months, the high has been 1.3824, and the low has been 1.3493.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Canadian Dollars to U.S. Dollar Spot Exchange Rate (DEXCAUS) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data\n(FRED) database at the [DEXCAUS webpage](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCAUS) exceeds 1.3600 for September 20, 2024. It resolves as **No** if the rate is 1.3600 or lower. The question will resolve as soon as the data is posted. However, if there are delays then resolution will wait up to a week for the data for September 20, 2024 to be posted. If it has not been posted as of September 27, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus admins, this question will resolve based on the most recent figure posted.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question's resolution, there will not be any rounding of the figures posted at FRED.", "post_id": 26138, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721139465.421277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721139465.421277, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5931834676421217 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0492373430437701, 0.5184797798380378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.45884221047791107, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12856727458371708, 0.0, 1.0, 0.014369596090439076, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5388299933143196, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14731282932738304, 0.0, 0.40213785952358283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13135512406716748, 0.19073805166550978, 0.0094962884186239, 0.422729524609672, 0.19380021535580197, 1.6987079780983985, 0.0, 0.0, 1.750343771036404, 0.0, 0.7344157083846621, 0.3415440718595426, 0.0, 0.5724472223148853, 0.0, 0.38043555332875517, 0.0, 0.0, 0.059105746561956225, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08253138866588176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721139465.45567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721139465.45567, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 32, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5741290782165465, 0.4258709217834536 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On July 5, 2024, this value was 1.3631. In the past 3 months, the high has been 1.3824, and the low has been 1.3493." }, { "id": 26134, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-spacex-attempt-to-catch-a-starship-booster-with-the-tower-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:59.167216Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.832284Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26134, "title": "Will SpaceX attempt to catch a Starship booster with the tower before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:59.167216Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:46:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, SpaceX attempts to catch the first stage of Starship, the Super Heavy booster, with the tower.", "fine_print": "* A catch attempt will be considered one where the Super Heavy booster makes contact with the tower or the catching arms (\"chopsticks\") during its landing attempt while the booster is intact.\n * So an aborted or inaccurate attempt, where it approaches the tower but does not make contact, will not count.\n * The booster exploding before contacting the tower, resulting in debris coming into contact with the tower, does not count.\n* The attempt need not be successful, and even an immediate explosion of the booster upon contacting the tower will still be sufficient to resolve the question as **Yes**.\n* The catch attempt need not occur as part of an integrated flight test (where the second stage is stacked on top of the booster). However, the booster must reach an altitude of at least 10 kilometers before attempting a landing to qualify.", "post_id": 26134, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140057.286508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140057.286508, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.68 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.6943585824842925 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080917342808261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.33663192731877195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46309828181391693, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21224921325013313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14114485879589025, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5092408447492134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8402148505771252, 0.0, 0.9481119238187246, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9001170146660178, 0.18125574861973415, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.6403200895653883, 0.10802413340346607, 1.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -83.65012677171204, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -83.65012677171204 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140057.321589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140057.321589, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.37608579719108093, 0.6239142028089191 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Starship](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship) is a two stage launch vehicle being developed by SpaceX consisting of a [Super Heavy booster](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Super_Heavy) as the first stage and the [Starship spacecraft](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship_(spacecraft)) as the second stage. So far Starship has undergone [two \"integrated flight tests\"](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#First_integrated_flight_test_(2021%E2%80%932023)) meaning Starship was test launched in its two stage configuration.\n\nSpaceX eventually [plans to \"catch\"](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-launch-tower-elon-musk-video) the booster with a specially designed tower in order to enable faster reuse of the booster. Elon Musk [has dubbed the tower](https://www.space.com/spacex-starship-super-heavy-33-engines-launch-pad) \"Mechazilla\" and refers to its manueverable arms as \"chopsticks\", which are used to position the booster for launch and will also be used to catch the booster. In an [interview in October 2023](https://www.space.com/spacex-elon-musk-starship-expectations-second-flight), Musk said:\n\n>If we get lucky, we might catch the ship towards the end of next year." }, { "id": 26133, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-benjamin-netanyahu-remain-prime-minister-of-israel-through-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:58.803273Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.779906Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26133, "title": "Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain Prime Minister of Israel through Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T21:10:58.803273Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:55:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks.", "resolution_criteria": "If Benjamin Netanyahu remains the Prime Minister of Israel from July 1, 2024 to Sept 30, 2024, this question will resolve as YES. If he ceases to be Prime Minster at any point between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves NO.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26133, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140055.953861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140055.953861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.6 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.4, 0.6 ], "means": [ 0.614981867417428 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06934409839582649, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569648587427511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3551836243544548, 0.0, 0.16860872986592954, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339977085555509, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10802413340346607, 0.0, 0.5300417658031267, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.5023944883348679, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.31964760159434596, 0.38552603931517593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4232841267034866, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0555681484137076, 0.26302409780338243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16026094357950826, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04136994682833595, 0.7340957181700754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4809786573605918, 0.6650883542974395, 0.0, 0.9172371287241657, 0.7020670829292148, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721140055.979548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721140055.979548, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 34, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.42438805487982256, 0.5756119451201774 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*The background information text from this question is taken from this earlier question: [When will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/19813/next-prime-minister-of-israel/)*\n\n---\n\n[Benjamin Netanyahu](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benjamin_Netanyahu) is the current Prime Minister of Israel, having previously held the office from 1996 to 1999 and again from 2009 to 2021. Netanyahu is the longest-tenured prime minister in the country's history, having served for a total of over 16 years.\n\n[A series of coordinated attacks](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Hamas_attack_on_Israel), conducted by the Palestinian Islamist militant Hamas, from the Gaza Strip onto bordering areas in Israel, commenced on Saturday 7 October 2023. Israel declared war on Hamas on 8 October, and its response to the attack has seen the most significant military escalation in the region since the Yom Kippur War. \n\nWithin Israel, Netanyahu's government has been [widely condemned](https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4282509-netanyahu-failed-and-must-resign/) for failures to prepare for these attacks." }, { "id": 26116, "title": "Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?", "short_title": "UK Oil & Gas Existing License Ban", "url_title": "UK Oil & Gas Existing License Ban", "slug": "uk-oil-gas-existing-license-ban", "author_id": 123015, "author_username": "IY", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T20:59:40.296123Z", "published_at": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.084119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15867, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "climate", "emoji": "🌎", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3697, "name": "Environment & Climate", "slug": "environment-climate", "emoji": "🌱", "description": "Environment & Climate", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26116, "title": "Will the UK Government ban any UK oil and gas licenses currently being processed by September 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T20:59:40.296123Z", "open_time": "2024-07-15T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-03T20:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-25T22:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Oil and gas is a critical part of the UK economy and its energy security. It provides over £20 billion and over 200,000 jobs, as per [Offshore Energies UK](https://oeuk.org.uk).\n\nDuring the [2024 UK General Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Labour pledged to voters that they would not issue new oil and gas licenses in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) as part of their \"net zero\" strategy; this is specifically outlined in their [2024 party manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/):\n\n>We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.\n\nFurthermore, Labour also pledged that they:\n\n>will not revoke existing licences and we will partner with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. \n\nHowever, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/af2c1ba0-4ca3-436f-960a-f223619e6a22) that - contrary to their manifesto - the Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to ban new drilling licenses:\n\n>The government is expected to ban new North Sea drilling licences from companies whose applications are already being processed\n\n>Energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering blocking a handful of outstanding applications made as part of an oil and gas licensing round that opened in late 2022\n\nThe article elaborates further:\n\n>The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied a report published earlier on Thursday by the Daily Telegraph that Miliband had already over-ruled his officials and ordered an “immediate ban on new drilling” that would stop the final applications in the 33rd round. \n\n>Yet the government did not deny that Miliband’s eventual intention was to stop those licence applications from being granted by the North Sea Transition Authority. Ministers are considering the situation carefully before making any firm decision, according to government figures. \n\nAccording to [Energy Voice](https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/552821/breaking-nsta-reveals-winners-of-latest-north-sea-licensing-round/), the 33rd licensing round resulted in 27 licenses being awarded in the first tranche, 24 in the second, and a further 31 in the third, with the latter tranche potentially adding 600 million barrels of oil equivalent.\n\n*Will Labour revoke any North Sea oil and gas licenses currently being processed?*", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve \"**Yes**\" if the UK Government announces, before September 1, 2024, that at least one (1) UK oil and gas license from the 33rd licensing round has been, or plans to be, revoked.", "fine_print": "- The licenses in question (i.e., those currently being \"processed\") are from the North Sea Transition Authority's (NSTA) \"The 33rd Offshore Licensing Round\" which were awarded in the first, second and third tranches as detailed on the NSTA [website](https://www.nstauthority.co.uk/regulatory-information/licensing-and-consents/licensing/).\n\n- Any announcement of a license revocation must come directly from an official UK government source.", "post_id": 26116, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724519052.715372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.093 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724519052.715372, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.04 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.093 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.96, 0.04 ], "means": [ 0.0537024745162553 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.8330381715449309, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1724573780.377095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1724573780.377095, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9935048004380344, 0.006495199561965632 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 15, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Oil and gas is a critical part of the UK economy and its energy security. It provides over £20 billion and over 200,000 jobs, as per [Offshore Energies UK](https://oeuk.org.uk).\n\nDuring the [2024 UK General Election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_Kingdom_general_election), Labour pledged to voters that they would not issue new oil and gas licenses in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) as part of their \"net zero\" strategy; this is specifically outlined in their [2024 party manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/change/make-britain-a-clean-energy-superpower/):\n\n>We will not issue new licences to explore new fields because they will not take a penny off bills, cannot make us energy secure, and will only accelerate the worsening climate crisis. In addition, we will not grant new coal licences and will ban fracking for good.\n\nFurthermore, Labour also pledged that they:\n\n>will not revoke existing licences and we will partner with business and workers to manage our existing fields for the entirety of their lifespan. \n\nHowever, the Financial Times [reported](https://www.ft.com/content/af2c1ba0-4ca3-436f-960a-f223619e6a22) that - contrary to their manifesto - the Labour Energy Secretary Ed Miliband is expected to ban new drilling licenses:\n\n>The government is expected to ban new North Sea drilling licences from companies whose applications are already being processed\n\n>Energy secretary Ed Miliband is considering blocking a handful of outstanding applications made as part of an oil and gas licensing round that opened in late 2022\n\nThe article elaborates further:\n\n>The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero denied a report published earlier on Thursday by the Daily Telegraph that Miliband had already over-ruled his officials and ordered an “immediate ban on new drilling” that would stop the final applications in the 33rd round. \n\n>Yet the government did not deny that Miliband’s eventual intention was to stop those licence applications from being granted by the North Sea Transition Authority. Ministers are considering the situation carefully before making any firm decision, according to government figures. \n\nAccording to [Energy Voice](https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/exploration-production/552821/breaking-nsta-reveals-winners-of-latest-north-sea-licensing-round/), the 33rd licensing round resulted in 27 licenses being awarded in the first tranche, 24 in the second, and a further 31 in the third, with the latter tranche potentially adding 600 million barrels of oil equivalent.\n\n*Will Labour revoke any North Sea oil and gas licenses currently being processed?*" }, { "id": 26114, "title": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?", "short_title": "Will France call another election by 2026?", "url_title": "Will France call another election by 2026?", "slug": "will-france-call-another-election-by-2026", "author_id": 168828, "author_username": "YellowSpectacular", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-12T12:13:27.435200Z", "published_at": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-11-16T00:28:46.092752Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 143, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26114, "title": "Will French president Emmanuel Macron call another snap legislative election before 2026?", "created_at": "2024-07-12T12:13:27.435200Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-19T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-19T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-29T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-29T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n\nFollowing the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n\nSee also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)", "resolution_criteria": "Will resolve YES if French President Emmanuel Macron has called a snap election (early legislative election or dissolution of the National Assembly) before January 1, 2026. Will resolve NO if this does not happen before then.", "fine_print": "If Macron ceases to be president of France before January 1, 2026 and has not called a snap election prior to that, this question will resolve No.\n\nThe actual election date resulting from the call can be after 2025, as long as the snap election call is made before January 1, 2026.", "post_id": 26114, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1763252915.68642, "end_time": 1763466177.996, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1763252915.68642, "end_time": 1763466177.996, "forecaster_count": 49, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.29 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.71, 0.29 ], "means": [ 0.2882913951865784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.4336203067551109, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1468152992556346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07982935021231018, 1.0645121741664412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8043908332778769, 0.012852091876617526, 2.2653148766225297, 0.008531995357508187, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.4421610315050127, 0.0, 0.6423888484513706, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4597912540861645, 0.0, 0.5720715474379412, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8532379589545074, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7670517167725932, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9042234953228405, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09930252898021946, 0.0, 0.15776424057435512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24723850118570584, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024787521766663585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04029699635329945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288693.338054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288693.338054, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7708416903359192, 0.22915830966408082 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 472, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the 2024 EU Parliament elections, France saw the rise of the right wing National Rally. This made French president Emmanuel Macron call early legislative elections and dissolution of the National Assembly, in response. \n\nFollowing the 2024 french legislative elections, the National Assembly has been mostly split three-ways, between the big tent, left wing grouping [New Popular Front with 180 seats; the centrist Ensemble with 159 seats; and the aforementioned National rally with 142 seats. None of the above gaining a majority in the 577 seat parliament](https://www.resultats-elections.interieur.gouv.fr/legislatives2024/ensemble_geographique/index.html). Some feel that this polarized parliament could lead to government deadlock, with any formed government potentially having a hard time surviving a motion of no confidence against it. This may potentially lead to Macron calling another snap election before the next scheduled legislative election, to ease the potential deadlock, which the french constitution only allow after a year since the previous legislative election.\n\nSee also from Le Monde: [Snap elections in France: How it works, precedents, and consequences](https://www.lemonde.fr/en/les-decodeurs/article/2024/06/10/snap-elections-in-france-how-it-works-precedents-and-consequences_6674391_8.html)" }, { "id": 26109, "title": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "short_title": "Will Biden end his candidacy?", "url_title": "Will Biden end his candidacy?", "slug": "will-biden-end-his-candidacy", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [ { "id": 117502, "username": "RyanBeck" }, { "id": 101465, "username": "Jgalt" } ], "created_at": "2024-07-11T18:56:43.676912Z", "published_at": 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"2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3366, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q3 2024 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2024q3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-q3-cover.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2024-07-08T13:00:53Z", "close_date": "2024-10-08T23:00:53Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-07T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-07-03T18:21:53.296397Z", "edited_at": "2024-07-03T18:33:35.483405Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 26109, "title": "Before August 22, 2024, will President Joe Biden take any of these specific actions to end his candidacy for re-election?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T18:56:43.676912Z", "open_time": "2024-07-16T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-21T16:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-21T17:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.\n\nThe [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before August 22, 2024, any of these four events takes place with respect to the 2024 US presidential election, resolved in accordance with the Metaculus [credible source](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) policy: \n\n1. President Joe Biden or his campaign announces that Biden will not seek or accept the Democratic Party's nomination or (if he is officially nominated before August 22, 2024), Biden resigns as the nominee. \n\n2. Biden officially releases his delegates from their [pledge](https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_delegate_rules,_2024) to vote for him in the Democratic Party's presidential roll call ballot.\n\n3. Biden endorses another person to be the Democratic nominee.\n\n4. Biden ceases to be President of the United States.\n\nIf none of these events occur before August 22, 2024, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "This question will not resolve as No before August 22, 2024, which is the final day of the Democratic National Convention and is the traditional day in which the party's presidential nominee makes their acceptance speech. So for example, if Biden becomes the official nominee through a virtual roll call vote held before the Convention, this question will remain open and can still resolve as Yes if Biden subsequently announces that he is stepping down as the nominee.\n\nActions such as canceling campaign events that are merely suggestive of Biden withdrawing his candidacy are insufficient for a Yes resolution.\n\nA temporary suspension of Biden's campaign will not count.\n\nWith respect to point #2 in the main Resolution Criteria, spontaneous remarks by Biden about his delegates, such as his recently saying at a press conference that delegates are \"free to do whatever they want\" but \"it's not gonna happen\" do not count as officially releasing delegates from their pledge. A Yes resolution would require a formal statement or action from the Biden-Harris Campaign officially releasing the pledged delegates in the presidential roll call.\n\nAs stated in Metaculus's credible source policy, there must be \"no significant controversy surrounding the information or its correctness.\" Therefore, false announcements, hacks, or misleading information will not count.", "post_id": 26109, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721587460.060966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721587460.060966, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 187, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.960153295170031 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.505527334334535e-06, 0.00018088445664803945, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3332517413289469e-05, 6.5062746000129215e-06, 0.0, 7.108112656424486e-05, 0.0005044550597752829, 3.569883819872081e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0004643860575110063, 0.09896063718638741, 0.0002646413377034751, 0.00035970306560069356, 2.3120420394383268e-05, 0.0, 0.012516958074540318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.026651263728025253, 0.0005933083370631456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.000547372867778377, 0.0, 0.0001886202511031783, 0.28506831875091365, 0.0004270051226036597, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00020786080511261623, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029425231274072403, 0.0, 0.13467781753719507, 0.0, 0.00017083808332495824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.039391139736447964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07211931967050726, 0.1415987515348361, 0.02179801149046511, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.029009465466422614, 0.13087260081461588, 0.1029985796981459, 8.010649315569889e-05, 0.0, 0.22523230033995545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16016990565652117, 0.19324075988387562, 0.09303603235233521, 0.0011934316580798714, 0.0, 0.0034313746305100605, 0.0, 0.31092366719442743, 0.052982916055831254, 0.03978483079815801, 0.0433200120656935, 0.0, 0.04592616282751616, 0.00985861888158843, 0.0, 0.015104825963231136, 0.1701750092450657, 0.05863768250378744, 0.004662653985115779, 0.017754015377662535, 0.04192400900312507, 0.008347382052181333, 0.032568407308182966, 0.02493763540865205, 0.06211631342802587, 0.017269315549752633, 23.090804227523147 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.544392411180227, "coverage": 0.1423264812035097, "baseline_score": -0.3214673592553507, "spot_peer_score": 47.18578870866586, "peer_archived_score": 6.544392411180227, "baseline_archived_score": -0.3214673592553507, "spot_peer_archived_score": 47.18578870866586 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1721583220.002084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1721583220.002084, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 168, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.33169399779081576, 0.6683060022091842 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 16, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 587, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following what the New York Times called his June 27, 2024 [debate disaster](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/briefing/biden-debate-disaster-supreme-court-jan-6.html), widespread questions arose about President Joe Biden's [fitness to continue](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/7/10/democrats-discuss-bidens-fitness-as-7th-lawmaker-calls-on-him-to-quit-race) as the Democratic Party's 2024 candidate or even to [serve out his second term](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4765107-adam-smith-doubts-biden-second-term/) if re-elected. Two weeks later, on July 11, 2024, NBC News reported a dire situation for Biden's campaign, with his campaign staffers doubting he had a tangible path toward winning the general election and his campaign's fundraising efforts taking a hit. Additionally, on July 11th Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/biden-house-democrats-call-drop-out) 11 Democratic House members and 1 Senator having publicly urged Biden to drop out, with more lawmakers planning to join them.\n\nThe [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention) will be held August 19 to 22, 2024. Typically the convention is where the nomination of a presidential candidate occurs, though Democrats could [potentially hold a virtual vote](https://www.reuters.com/world/us/democrats-nominate-joe-biden-virtual-vote-before-convention-despite-turmoil-2024-07-15/) in late July to select the nominee." }, { "id": 26102, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-astronauts-suni-williams-and-butch-wilmore-be-on-earth-on-august-15", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.982809Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.482888Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 63, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26102, "title": "Will astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore be on Earth on August 15?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.982809Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-19T22:49:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on August 15?\n\n", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if both Sunita (Suni) Williams and Butch Wilmore are on Earth's surface as of 12 noon on August 15, 2024 Eastern time, based on credible sources such as reporting from NASA, SpaceX, Boeing, or Roscosmos.", "fine_print": "This question will be annulled in the event of loss of life of either astronaut.\n\nThe question resolves unambiguously if both astronauts are alive at the relevant time, regardless of their physical or mental condition. Both astronauts do not need to return to Earth at the same time.\n\n\"Earth's surface\" is to be understood in opposition to space (above the Kármán line), orbit (aboard the ISS), or in transit aboard a surface-bound ship.", "post_id": 26102, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880144.228621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880144.228621, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.79 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5604080354681574 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.2635521314790337, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03799394507683481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.5354878057991908, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9052417925526632, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.23599519647101777, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26487484835486463, 0.031223319598590725, 0.7058761934376654, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1608171544828267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.5448487421029051, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6085612152656917, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.025222677064637565, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -18.442457113742766, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -18.442457113742766 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880144.266194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880144.266194, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.49490483197943247, 0.5050951680205675 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 5, 2024, NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore launched to the International Space Station (ISS) on a Boeing Starliner crew capsule, which docked at the ISS. They were originally scheduled to return to Earth on June 13, 2024 on the same Starliner capsule. However, according to the NY Post, due to an unusable thruster and multiple helium leaks (one of which was known by Boeing officials but was not disclosed), the astronauts' return trip has been delayed \"indefinitely\" until at least July 2nd.\n\nOn June 24, 2024, Live Science reported that there were 45 days to return Williams and Wilmore on the Starliner due to limited fuel on the ISS.\n\nWill they be Earthside on August 15?\n\n" }, { "id": 26101, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tiktok-us-be-sold-to-a-us-entity-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.906521Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.658121Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 59, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26101, "title": "Will TikTok US be sold to a US entity before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.906521Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that TikTok US will be (or has been) sold to a US company, foundation, or entity. The transaction need not be complete but must at least be announced. For a transaction to count, more than 50% of TikTok US has to be sold.\n\nIf TikTok successfully conducts an initial public offering by end of Sept 30, 2024, this question resolves ambiguously.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26101, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880158.305322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880158.305322, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.25 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.75, 0.25 ], "means": [ 0.250648420334977 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.36164207566756346, 0.16646434153021028, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2584365853780068, 0.0, 0.01991902879869956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08612305201977583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0743140688862265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 1.481158775071362, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2566009934919624, 0.031223319598590725, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0147867716879284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9142654591121933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.09920880509067492, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4000843884103185, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.571355017736374, 0.0, 0.18760077787182092, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011088284031717698, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06147333520720088, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880158.339759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880158.339759, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.86038214996436, 0.13961785003563995 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In December 2022, the US Senate introduced a bill that would [impose a ban on \"all transactions from any social media company in, or under the influence of, China, Russia, and several other foreign countries of concern,\"](https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/13/lawmakers-unveil-bipartisan-bill-that-aims-to-ban-tiktok-in-the-us.html) over privacy concerns involving the government of China. This would amount to [banning TikTok in the US](https://www.economist.com/united-states/2023/03/23/america-may-be-a-step-closer-to-banning-tiktok). A second possibility is what the Trump Administration attempted in 2020 and 2021, to [force a sale of TikTok US operations to a US company, e.g. Oracle, which did not go through.](https://techcrunch.com/2021/02/10/tiktoks-forced-sale-to-oracle-is-put-on-hold/) As of March 2023, TikTok US remains accessible in the US and remains under the control of ByteDance." }, { "id": 26100, "title": "Will Robert F. 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Kennedy Jr. suspend his 2024 presidential campaign before September 24, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.824674Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T19:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if before September 24, 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his campaign officially announces that he has suspended, terminated, or otherwise ended his 2024 campaign for the office of President of the United States.", "fine_print": "An announced suspension of campaigning that is intended or expected (according to either a candidate/campaign statement or credible media reports) to be temporary (e.g. in the case of a personal or general emergency, etc) shall not count; only a permanent 'suspension' that is tantamount to the termination of the campaign suffices.\n\nHowever, if a suspension that is intended or expected to be temporary becomes (according to an official statement from Kennedy or his campaign) a permanent suspension without the campaign having been resumed, the date of Kennedy's campaign suspension should be taken to be the date the suspension initially began.\n\nAny revival of a campaign after a permanent 'suspension' or termination of a campaign shall be immaterial to resolution of this question.", "post_id": 26100, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880182.004411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.20596559278331383 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880182.004411, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.13333333333333333 ], "centers": [ 0.20596559278331383 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7940344072166862, 0.20596559278331383 ], "means": [ 0.2603556099185143 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.015606161031332, 0.0, 0.16646434153021028, 0.7716489706412398, 0.025222677064637565, 0.5923757176705159, 0.18760077787182092, 0.8423858322996396, 0.0, 0.29356270312146443, 0.6307327315398252, 0.2635521314790337, 0.5409331487608244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7514850819311809, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06368526110961975, 0.0, 0.5428156069823342, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36164207566756346, 0.0, 0.11367379311272378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9709735782755959, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14718282122980625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4417283098457183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -127.95247442111052, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -127.95247442111052 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880182.045169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880182.045169, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8924014980626098, 0.10759850193739023 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The 2024 United States presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector) is scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.\n\nAs of July 10 2024, incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden is seeking re-election and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://apnews.com/article/biden-presumptive-nominee-election-president-democrat-63b66006d4bc45354343228e323e3baa) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 40% of the national popular vote.\n\nRepublican former president Donald Trump is seeking election to a second, non-consecutive term, and is the [presumptive nominee of his party.](https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/12/donald-trump-clinches-republican-presidential-nomination-00146675) April five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found him winning about 42% of the national popular vote.\n\nAttorney and political activist [Robert F. Kennedy Jr.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_F._Kennedy_Jr.?useskin=vector) sought the Democratic nomination in the 2024 cycle, but in October 2023, switched to [running as an independent](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-jr-presidential-campaign-independent-2024-30d940109c4956de9c81f332ec418463) candidate. In March 2024, [Kennedy named his running mate](https://apnews.com/article/rfk-bobby-kennedy-vp-running-mate-6be6d7e04ba7d9e74190b8c01a1bf075), attorney Nicole Shanahan. Recent five-candidate [polls](https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden-vs-kennedy-vs-west-vs-stein) have found Kennedy winning about 9.5% of the national popular vote, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. Kennedy has also reportedly raised, together with outside groups, [over $98 million](https://www.opensecrets.org/2024-presidential-race) in support of his presidential run, an unusually high figure for a third-party or independent candidate. \n\nGiven Kennedy's unusually high polling and fundraising figures, he may be in a position to significantly influence the outcome of an otherwise close election, particularly if he were to drop out of the race and encourage his supporters to lend their support to one of the major party candidates." }, { "id": 26099, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-a-new-nuclear-armed-state-emerge-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.580564Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.020632Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 64, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 35, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26099, "title": "Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.580564Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:53:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, before Sept 30, 2024, credible evidence becomes available that a country not currently possessing nuclear weapons has successfully developed and tested a nuclear weapon. The current nuclear-armed states are the United States, Russia, the United Kingdom, France, China, India, Pakistan, Israel, and North Korea.\n\nThis evidence can come from one or more of the following sources:\n\nAn official announcement or acknowledgment by the government of the country in question that it has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\nConfirmation from a recognized international organization (e.g., International Atomic Energy Agency, Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization) or a major intelligence agency (e.g., CIA, MI6, FSB) that the country in question has developed and tested a nuclear weapon.\nDetection and verification of a nuclear test by a global monitoring network, such as the International Monitoring System (IMS) of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), with widespread international consensus on the identity of the country responsible for the test", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26099, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880165.581624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03437426727177077 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880165.581624, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.03437426727177077 ], "centers": [ 0.07 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9299999999999999, 0.07 ], "means": [ 0.11613066728789435 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.4000965096333209, 0.674388392608588, 0.5671862384388243, 0.2107293143308072, 1.5608471029642135, 0.0, 1.135948535421104, 0.02256479543824977, 0.0, 1.4773591957078738, 0.0, 0.9183948249798383, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5880666565874791, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04560888849351553, 0.0, 0.7584485688636057, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49587384386977573, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.031223319598590725, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1296267078906556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32619880252471406, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 89.53026213333065, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 89.53026213333065 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720880165.623144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720880165.623144, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9350545265069595, 0.06494547349304043 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 64, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the dawn of the nuclear age, the number of nuclear-armed states has slowly increased, with [nine countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_states_with_nuclear_weapons) currently possessing nuclear weapons. Nuclear nonproliferation efforts, such as the [Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)](https://www.un.org/disarmament/wmd/nuclear/npt/) have played a crucial role in preventing the further spread of nuclear weapons. However, concerns persist about the potential for additional countries to pursue nuclear weapons capabilities, either secretly or openly, which could destabilize regional and global security.\n\nThe emergence of a new nuclear-armed state could have significant implications for international security, potentially triggering arms races or geopolitical realignments. It is therefore important to assess the likelihood of a new country successfully developing and testing a nuclear weapon by 2030, taking into account both announced and unannounced tests." }, { "id": 26098, "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "on-july-21-2024-will-the-closing-value-of-bse-sensex-be-greater-than-75k-and-less-than-or-equal-to-77k", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.501388Z", "published_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.097721Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 62, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:39:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 34, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26098, "title": "On July 21, 2024, will the closing value of BSE SENSEX be greater than 75k and less than or equal to 77k?", "created_at": "2024-07-11T13:53:16.501388Z", "open_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:39:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:39:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:39:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-13T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BSE_SENSEX), also known as the S&P BSE SENSEX or simply the SENSEX, is a stock market index consisting of 30 of the largest companies listed on the Bombay Stock Exchange. It is one of the oldest and most widely followed equity indices in India. The SENSEX is intended to reflect the overall performance of the Indian stock market.\n\nIndia's recent general elections saw incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), win a [narrower victory](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/india-election-modi-bjp-lost-majority-election-surprise-rcna155557) than expected, raising concerns about potential policy paralysis and the ability of the government to implement key economic reforms. 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athletes will be allowed to participate in the 2024 Games as long as they do so as so-called \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" (AINs), without an accompanying national flag or anthem.\n\nThe Russian Federation/Russian Olympic Committee has won an average of 19 gold medals in the last 3 Olympic Games, and Belarus has averaged 1.7." }, { "id": 26084, "title": "Will a Israel-Hamas conflict ceasefire lasting at least 30 days be agreed to before November 5th, 2024?", "short_title": "30d Gaza ceasefire agreed before US Election", "url_title": "30d Gaza ceasefire agreed before US Election", "slug": "30d-gaza-ceasefire-agreed-before-us-election", "author_id": 104622, "author_username": "Order", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-11T01:07:11.072760Z", "published_at": "2024-07-14T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.697332Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-14T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 31, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, 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"cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-17T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-17T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-05T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-22T23:11:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-22T23:11:29.077115Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-01T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)", "resolution_criteria": "For this question to resolve as \"Yes\", Israel and Hamas must, before November 5th, 2024, agree to a ceasefire, truce, armistice, surrender, humanitarian pause, or any other agreement involving the cessation of all military activity between the two parties in Israel and Gaza. If Israel and Hamas reach an agreement to pause the conflict, this question will be resolved 30 days after the agreement goes into effect, provided that both parties remain committed to the agreement.\n\nIf there is a violation of an agreement that leads either side to no longer commit to the agreement, this is not enough alone to resolve \"No\". The question will only resolve \"No\" if:\n\n- There was no agreement that was signed (or otherwise took effect) at least by November 4th 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not start effect at least by December 4th 11:59PM PDT, or\n- Said agreement did not end up lasting >=30 days by January 4th 11:59PM PDT.", "fine_print": "If both Israel and Hamas announce unilateral ceasefires (or any other such pauses) that are in effect at the same time, this will be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" for the purposes of this question, and the 30-day count will begin from the day the latter of the two goes into effect.\n\nAttacks by or on other parties (e.g., non-Hamas Palestinian groups in Gaza) will not be considered violations of the agreement for the purposes of this question.\n\nA one-sided victory without concession or surrender by the other party will not be considered \"an agreed-upon pause\" and will not count toward resolution. Any other cessation of fighting without an agreement will also not count toward resolution.\n\nCredit to [Infer-Pub](https://www.infer-pub.com/questions/1353-will-there-be-an-agreed-upon-pause-in-the-conflict-between-israel-and-hamas-that-starts-before-1-december-2024-and-lasts-at-least-30-days) for inspiring the resolution criteria.", "post_id": 26084, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1730398206.390475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1730398206.390475, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.011854743396634265 ], "histogram": [ [ 10.823920244397335, 2.9713513033832264, 0.39624798760900365, 0.1256254534229768, 0.04090079228890619, 0.22122159673755223, 0.5849577636717652, 0.06993045450605567, 0.045388810230191125, 0.1130965568839125, 0.1727338513728341, 0.009464057867442102, 0.15150312251966935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.05416656778952044, 0.004095049893788444, 0.0, 0.028403737957569904, 0.002443062932311581, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0029874620908670662, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0007129919161079304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034816323194887928, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016218528311726184 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 85.28426866019791, "peer_score": 18.03847655978729, "coverage": 0.997893676764693, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.997893676764693, "spot_peer_score": 33.517814456489326, "baseline_archived_score": 85.28426866019791, "peer_archived_score": 18.03847655978729, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 33.517814456489326 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289726.713262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289726.713262, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 69, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 14, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 348, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The current [Israel-Hamas conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93Hamas_war) started October 7th, 2023. Since then there has only been one pause in the conflict, from November 24th, 2023 to December 1st, 2023. \n\nCurrent reporting is that the US is seeking some kind of long term peace deal in Gaza, although it is not clear if it will happen or when:\n\n### 7/11/2024\n\nTimes of Israel: [Nasrallah: If Hamas agrees to ceasefire with Israel, Hezbollah will also halt attacks](https://www.timesofisrael.com/nasrallah-if-hamas-agrees-to-ceasefire-with-israel-hezbollah-will-also-halt-attacks/)\n\nAxios: [Israel toughens Gaza ceasefire demands just as optimism for deal growing](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/11/netanyahu-gaza-ceasefire-hostage-negotiations)\n\n### 7/10/2024\n\nAxios: [CIA director holds Gaza talks with Qatari, Egyptian and Israeli officials](https://www.axios.com/2024/07/10/gaza-ceasefire-hostage-deal-qatar-egypt-israel) \n\nWashington Post: [A Gaza cease-fire agreement appears within reach](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/07/10/israel-hamas-gaza-ceasefire-agreement-within-reach/)\n\nCBS: [Hamas says Israel's deadly strike on a Gaza school could put cease-fire talks back to \"square one\"](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/israel-hamas-war-airstrike-gaza-school-knocks-cease-fire-hopes/)\n\n### 7/8/2024\n\nReuters: [Israel opposition offers PM lifeline if he signs ceasefire](https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-opposition-offers-pm-lifeline-if-he-signs-ceasefire-2024-07-08/)\n\nCNN: [Gaza hostage-ceasefire deal faces new hurdles as Israel sets conditions. Here’s what to know](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/08/middleeast/israel-hamas-ceasefire-hostage-deal-demands-explainer-mime-intl/index.html)\n\n### 7/7/2024\n\nThe Guardian: [Israeli government accused of trying to sabotage Gaza ceasefire proposal](https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jul/07/israeli-government-accused-of-trying-to-sabotage-gaza-ceasefire-proposal)\n\n### 11/5/2008\n\nThe Guardian: [Gaza truce broken as Israeli raid kills six Hamas gunmen](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/nov/05/israelandthepalestinians)" }, { "id": 26082, "title": "Will NHS England deliver an extra two million operations, scans, and appointments each year within the current Westminster parliament?", "short_title": "NHS England hospital appointments increase 2M", "url_title": "NHS England hospital appointments increase 2M", "slug": "nhs-england-hospital-appointments-increase-2m", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-10T16:19:57.574984Z", "published_at": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-15T14:24:32.999322Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26082, "title": "Will NHS England deliver an extra two million operations, scans, and appointments each year within the current Westminster parliament?", "created_at": "2024-07-10T16:19:57.574984Z", "open_time": "2024-09-19T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-09-22T12:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-09-22T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-10-30T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"an extra two million NHS operations, scans and appointments every year\" in England in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=95) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\n[Full Fact](https://fullfact.org/election-2024/labour-2-million-nhs-appointments/) analyzed this goal by the metric \"appointments and procedures for inpatient and outpatient secondary care\", which for the April 2023 to March 2024 period was 157 million. This relates to hospitals only and does not include GP doctor appointments.", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if NHS England's achieves an extra 2 million\nappointments and procedures for inpatient and outpatient secondary care within the parliamentary term resulting from the general election of July 4, 2024 compared to the number in the period July 2023 to June 2024, which is 160,124,144. If there is any rolling 1 year period wholly within the current parliamentary term in which the number is less than 162,124,144, the question resolves as **No**.\n\nThis number will be calculated by adding the total finished consultant episodes to the total outpatient appointments made.\n\nThe data required for resolution will be found [here](https://digital.nhs.uk/data-and-information/publications/statistical/provisional-monthly-hospital-episode-statistics-for-admitted-patient-care-outpatient-and-accident-and-emergency-data).\n\nIt is expected that rolling annual data will be published monthly 3 months after the end of each 12 month period (for example, for July 2023 to June 2024, the data would be expected around the 30th September 2024.", "fine_print": "The latest the next general election can be held is [August 15, 2029](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election), hence the latest possible rolling annual period that could be wholly within this parliamentary term is August 2028 to July 2029, with the data expected to be published around the 31st of October 2029.\n\nPlease note that this question makes certain assumptions such as the data continuing to be published using substantially similar methodology. For any edge cases that might make this question unable to be resolved, please refer to Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 26082, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1760538262.548783, "end_time": 1768490662.427, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1760538262.548783, "end_time": 1768490662.427, "forecaster_count": 5, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.83 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.17000000000000004, 0.83 ], "means": [ 0.8281425578286068 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2905243231860232, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6040990104285446, 0.0, 0.43961566820611525, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7897269884419299 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289770.989453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289770.989453, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 4, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3807092426758252, 0.6192907573241748 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 13, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK Labour Party set a target of \"an extra two million NHS operations, scans and appointments every year\" in England in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Labour-Party-manifesto-2024.pdf#page=95) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\n[Full Fact](https://fullfact.org/election-2024/labour-2-million-nhs-appointments/) analyzed this goal by the metric \"appointments and procedures for inpatient and outpatient secondary care\", which for the April 2023 to March 2024 period was 157 million. This relates to hospitals only and does not include GP doctor appointments." }, { "id": 26030, "title": "If Joe Biden is re-elected as US President in 2024, will he still be US President as of December 31, 2025?", "short_title": "Biden Elected, Holds Office Through 2025", "url_title": "Biden Elected, Holds Office Through 2025", "slug": "biden-elected-holds-office-through-2025", "author_id": 114080, "author_username": "walkrflocka", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:29:59.838028Z", "published_at": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.180491Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32601, "name": "2024-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 26030, "title": "If Joe Biden is re-elected as US President in 2024, will he still be US President as of December 31, 2025?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:29:59.838028Z", "open_time": "2024-07-13T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-16T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T04:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-14T18:05:55.054259Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-11-30T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-14T18:03:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In the wake of the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, questions have widely been raised about the state of President Biden's health and cognitive faculty. President Biden is 81, and was the oldest President in history at inauguration.\n\nThe Hill: [Biden committed to finishing second term as questions swirl over fitness for office](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4762396-biden-drop-out-democrats-fitness/)\n\nUSA Today: [Joe Biden commits to serving full second term if he defeats Donald Trump, White House says](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/09/joe-biden-white-house-reelected/74342097007/)\n\nNY Post: [George Stephanopoulos says ‘I don’t think’ Biden can serve 4 more years after ABC interview](https://nypost.com/2024/07/09/us-news/george-stephanopoulos-says-i-dont-think-biden-can-serve-4-more-years-after-abc-interview/)", "resolution_criteria": "If Joe Biden does not win the 2024 presidential election, this question will be **Annulled**. If Joe Biden wins the 2024 election and is still President of the United States as of midnight on Dec. 31, 2025, the question will resolve to **Yes**. If Biden won the election, but another individual permanently occupies the position, the question will resolve to **No**.", "fine_print": "Temporary, legal transfers of power (e.g. those effected by the 25th Amendment, Section 3) do not count towards a **No** resolution - only if the legal office itself is transferred. \n\nShould Joe Biden lose office at any time during the year but regain it prior to the resolve date and hold it through the completion of the question, the question will resolve to **Yes**.\n\nA **No** resolution includes, but is not limited to, resignation prior to the resolve date.\n\nIn case of total overthrow or destruction of the US Government subsequent to a Biden win in 2024, the question will resolve to **No**. An overthrow of the US government constitutes any change in executive power through extralegal means. If US Government is overthrown/invaded but still exists as a rump state that _de facto_ holds territory historically recognized as part of the US excl. territories, the answer will resolve to **Yes**.", "post_id": 26030, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1731179266.338265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1731179266.338265, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.49 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.5996947404656526 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6984449301569673, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6151337240492557, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03477352548891289, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8902452820461484, 0.9211693513801119, 0.3526517851691326, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2569435305951722, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5394303752836035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1866748387364847, 0.0, 0.4086904201879483, 0.07230600215016575, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09452424244796935 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287316.333688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287316.333688, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.21897320396024178, 0.7810267960397582 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In the wake of the June 27, 2024 presidential debate, questions have widely been raised about the state of President Biden's health and cognitive faculty. President Biden is 81, and was the oldest President in history at inauguration.\n\nThe Hill: [Biden committed to finishing second term as questions swirl over fitness for office](https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/4762396-biden-drop-out-democrats-fitness/)\n\nUSA Today: [Joe Biden commits to serving full second term if he defeats Donald Trump, White House says](https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2024/07/09/joe-biden-white-house-reelected/74342097007/)\n\nNY Post: [George Stephanopoulos says ‘I don’t think’ Biden can serve 4 more years after ABC interview](https://nypost.com/2024/07/09/us-news/george-stephanopoulos-says-i-dont-think-biden-can-serve-4-more-years-after-abc-interview/)" }, { "id": 26024, "title": "Will Bo Nix be the starting quarterback for the Denver Broncos in their Week 4 game against the New York Jets?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-bo-nix-be-the-starting-quarterback-for-the-denver-broncos-in-their-week-4-game-against-the-new-york-jets", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.524291Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:27.958338Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 51, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-29T17:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as Yes if Bo Nix enters the field as the Denver Broncos are about to start their first offensive drive of their game against the New York Jets.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 26024, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793753.873761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8205653219925121 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793753.873761, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.54 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8205653219925121 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.66060696553341 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.8116305268299652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.6706298188767628, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7073381963335545, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1836394386094319, 0.9704978208198705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 1.1792089906998804, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.7802002747425575, 0.16989233876228205, 1.0767068425418413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793753.914474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793753.914474, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5139155152648965, 0.48608448473510346 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After their 8-win 2023 season, the Denver Broncos cut Russell Wilson and drafted Oregon quarterback Bo Nix with the 12th draft pick. They also have QBs Jarrett Stidham and Zach Wilson on their roster. Will the rookie start against the New York Jets on September 29?" }, { "id": 26023, "title": "Will diplomatic expulsions or recalls take place between the Philippines and China before September 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-diplomatic-expulsions-or-recalls-take-place-between-the-philippines-and-china-before-september-30-2024", "author_id": 115975, "author_username": "johnnycaffeine", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.432818Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.158838Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 50, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 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