Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2880
{ "count": 5974, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2900", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2860", "results": [ { "id": 20741, "title": "Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?", "short_title": "Apple Watch Ban Takes Effect?", "url_title": "Apple Watch Ban Takes Effect?", "slug": "apple-watch-ban-takes-effect", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:19:50.850296Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:04.128406Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 43, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20741, "title": "Will the ban on imports of Apple watches with blood oxygen sensors take effect before December 27, 2023?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:19:50.850296Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-21T05:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-21T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-26T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-24T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent):\n\n>In October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission [ruled](https://www.usitc.gov/system/files?file=secretary/fed_reg_notices/337/337_1276_notice10262023sgl.pdf) that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\n\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would [halt sales of the Apple watches](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import). [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import):\n\n>.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US — the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\n>\n>The patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases — one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC —claiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>Right now, it’s unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. It’s currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so we’ll have to see if things change between now and then.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before December 27, 2023, credible sources report that the ban on imports of some Apple watches containing blood oxygen sensors has taken effect.", "fine_print": "* The ban on imports will be considered to have taken effect if the International Trade Commission order [becomes final](https://www.cbp.gov/sites/default/files/documents/2310-006a_3.pdf), or in other words if after the presidential review period the President has not disapproved the order or if the President has affirmatively approved it.", "post_id": 20741, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703457379.819298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703457379.819298, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.905 ], "centers": [ 0.95 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.96 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.050000000000000044, 0.95 ], "means": [ 0.9267860296365648 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028511763448086522, 0.0, 0.03913203907098744, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.30966205628112686, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01644146499808245, 0.0, 0.010488891604094424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.024016566893208465, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008023442444365229, 1.0468168270490275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5265764566181663, 1.0376619766251902, 0.0, 0.25470072851094916, 0.0, 1.4099174699753658, 3.0949924824689568, 1.9024969745834084, 0.0, 0.7203625667500725, 1.193198191459424 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.073161363047927, "coverage": 0.9995481820027032, "baseline_score": 78.10415587669213, "spot_peer_score": 12.066017296652715, "peer_archived_score": 6.073161363047927, "baseline_archived_score": 78.10415587669213, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.066017296652715 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703457379.841753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703457379.841753, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 43, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.041326538260959333, 0.9586734617390407 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 101, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[According to NPR](https://www.npr.org/2023/12/18/1220125508/apple-watch-series-9-ultra-2-masimo-patent):\n\n>In October [2023], the U.S. International Trade Commission [ruled](https://www.usitc.gov/system/files?file=secretary/fed_reg_notices/337/337_1276_notice10262023sgl.pdf) that some Apple Watches violated Masimo's patents for the the blood oxygen feature that Apple has included in most of its smartphone watches since 2020.\n\nOn December 18, Apple announced that it would [halt sales of the Apple watches](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import). [According to the Verge](https://www.theverge.com/2023/12/18/24006080/apple-watch-ban-series-9-ultra-2-itc-import):\n\n>.The ban only affects the flagship Series 9 and Ultra 2 models. Since the Apple Watch SE does not have the SpO2 sensor, it remains unaffected. Previous models of the Apple Watch with the blood oxygen sensor will also not be impacted. The ITC ban also only impacts sales of the Series 9 and Ultra 2 within the US — the watches will still be available for sale abroad.\n>\n>The patent disputes between Apple and Masimo have been thorny over the past few years. Masimo is most well known for its pulse oximeter. Masimo filed two separate cases — one with the US District Court in the Central District of California and a second with the ITC —claiming that Apple infringed on its pulse oximetry tech. This particular import ban is a result of the latter.\n>\n> . . .\n>\n>Right now, it’s unclear whether the ITC import ban will stand. It’s currently undergoing a presidential review period, and President Joe Biden will have the opportunity to veto the ban. Presidential vetos, however, are uncommon, though Apple has benefitted from them in the past. In 2013, former President Barack Obama vetoed an ITC import ban on the iPhone 4 and certain iPad models. That said, Biden chose to uphold another ITC ruling that would see Apple Watch imports banned over the EKG feature. The presidential review period ends December 25th, so we’ll have to see if things change between now and then." }, { "id": 20739, "title": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "short_title": "US Military Death in Red Sea Before 2024?", "url_title": "US Military Death in Red Sea Before 2024?", "slug": "us-military-death-in-red-sea-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:06:23.887551Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.813772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 86, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20739, "title": "Will there be a US military combat death in the Red Sea before 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T15:06:23.887551Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-21T21:48:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-21T21:48:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-01-03T17:38:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) have launched a series of [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) in the Red Sea including [against US warships](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/03/pentagon-us-warship-attack-red-sea-00129789).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea. According to [reporting by the Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks):\n\n>One analyst, Farea Al-Muslimi from the Chatham House thinktank, said they expected the Houthi attacks to continue for now despite the US announcement – and that commercial shipping was likely to remain wary of using the Red Sea.\n>\n>“The Houthis will carry on, they love attention and they have a wide degree of support in the Arab world,” Al-Muslimi said. “So far nobody has died as a result of the Houthi attacks – if somebody is killed then there will likely have to be a response.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 20, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a member of the US military has been killed in the Red Sea due to an attack.", "fine_print": "* This does not include non-combat deaths, such as those occurring during training or by accident.", "post_id": 20739, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062285.588107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062285.588107, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.028515438575922807 ], "histogram": [ [ 7.151463938956538, 6.601737801437974, 0.713350090193192, 0.007337775468663119, 0.1310919247987, 0.643928373539224, 0.014478081192727641, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0003861035604651628, 0.0, 1.3816146935631877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0008782752490162315, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4050492315734713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005305652088145888, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.995675551908137, "coverage": 0.9998483422522119, "baseline_score": 96.14748532270295, "spot_peer_score": 6.882115160376474, "peer_archived_score": 6.995675551908137, "baseline_archived_score": 96.14748532270295, "spot_peer_archived_score": 6.882115160376474 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704062285.609412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704062285.609412, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 86, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 238, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel, Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement) have launched a series of [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) in the Red Sea including [against US warships](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/03/pentagon-us-warship-attack-red-sea-00129789).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea. 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The Superalignment team, formed in mid-2023, is a strategic response to the rapid advancements in AI. \n\nOpenAI, recently faced a significant leadership shakeup. Sutskever, serving as the chief scientist and a board member, played a pivotal role in the temporary ousting of CEO Sam Altman. This event raised questions about Sutskever's future role at the company. Although he was instrumental in forming the superalignment team and his contributions remain significant, his current status within OpenAI has been somewhat ambiguous following these events. [Source 1](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/14/1085344/openai-super-alignment-rogue-agi-gpt-4), [Source 2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ilya-sutskever-man-center-openai-211351628.html).\n\n[Reports indicate that Sutskever has been less visible within OpenAI.](https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/ilya-sutskevers-team-at-openai-built-tools-to-control-a-superhuman-ai/). There have been speculations about him potentially leaving the organization, especially considering the recent leadership turmoil and his hiring of a lawyer. However, his exact status and future role at OpenAI remain unconfirmed as of now.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve YES if at the start of January 1st, 2025, Ilya Sutskever is still serving as the leader of OpenAI's Superalignment team. Further, it resolves No if [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions) report he no longer leads it, and that credible sources do not indicate he has returned to lead it, as of the beginning of January 1st, 2025. \n\nThe resolution requires that Ilya Sutskever holds the leadership role specifically for the Superalignment team and specifically for OpenAI. The question will resolve Yes if OpenAI renames the team, but announces the team will focus on the same core set of responsibilities. \n\nLeadership is defined as having a primary and active role in guiding the direction, decisions, and activities of the Superalignment team. It is sufficient for OpenAI to define Sutskever's role explicitly as \"leading,\" but it is not necessary.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20722, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735649713.572591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 454, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735649713.572591, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 454, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.005820059105089151 ], "histogram": [ [ 30.373273797061216, 9.721441965799283, 0.209904660004807, 0.3205546484809249, 0.335559727025072, 9.458896420144645e-05, 0.00010277996677326798, 2.41748553370808e-05, 0.00037414471845136836, 0.0, 0.002242910742284118, 6.613191225966294e-06, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03661578846881755, 0.001744686278003318, 0.00013130878437491605, 0.0, 4.56776410745159e-07, 0.0, 0.009332192648598081, 1.2283228622472025e-05, 0.00023739281162304252, 0.0, 9.27217875989362e-07, 0.001048305247260261, 4.237906846225985e-07, 5.2177071483290316e-09, 0.0011743317998777324, 0.0, 0.0030543020440275135, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0023499534037811406, 7.552830919622373e-07, 0.005207632980389767, 1.1731520031405197e-05, 0.00010887152972827074, 0.00034957898242754884, 0.0031452293670352887, 0.006952137721895881, 7.444845702615886e-06, 9.862066056886882e-05, 0.00043803369924642915, 0.0010277199601194664, 0.009110674846895617, 0.0022602698429013187, 0.0, 0.0, 9.3277632204005e-05, 0.009438454572111366, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00038833130431396737, 0.002021145208509117, 0.00028321593837268106, 0.0037240468956587355, 0.0, 0.0001955060905526013, 0.0022305870817096473, 0.00015894940420257508, 0.0, 4.395941413550399e-05, 0.0, 0.0032279591895959547, 0.0008069579790247773, 0.0005559038502211012, 9.535571269053756e-06, 0.0, 0.005990356698118999, 0.0, 0.00085923430881778, 0.0, 0.0009269548555678042, 0.002198978216951744, 0.00014305028809308016, 8.092435913788346e-07, 0.002151640155697931, 1.0590651193993604e-05, 0.0033500810103326544, 0.0001182794993674154, 0.00027676977078274563, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0016606654552309226, 1.4973378122910633e-05, 0.003135651445081747, 2.3515210593307292e-08, 0.0, 0.0005065148002431594, 0.0, 0.00020325945779610266, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0005603209622324926, 0.0, 7.673779657162482e-05, 0.0, 0.023143212633522717 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 63.56816011996167, "peer_score": 39.17765737576948, "coverage": 0.9998768482939656, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998768482939656, "spot_peer_score": 21.88689065612647, "spot_baseline_score": 11.103131238874395, "baseline_archived_score": 63.56816011996167, "peer_archived_score": 39.17765737576948, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 21.88689065612647, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 11.103131238874395 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286857.795172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 448, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286857.795172, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 448, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 12, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 930, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "OpenAI established the [Superalignment team](https://openai.com/blog/introducing-superalignment) to focus on developing ways to steer, regulate, and govern superintelligent AI systems.\n\nIlya Sutskever, a co-founder and chief scientist at OpenAI, leads this team alongside Jan Leike. The Superalignment team, formed in mid-2023, is a strategic response to the rapid advancements in AI. \n\nOpenAI, recently faced a significant leadership shakeup. Sutskever, serving as the chief scientist and a board member, played a pivotal role in the temporary ousting of CEO Sam Altman. This event raised questions about Sutskever's future role at the company. Although he was instrumental in forming the superalignment team and his contributions remain significant, his current status within OpenAI has been somewhat ambiguous following these events. [Source 1](https://www.technologyreview.com/2023/12/14/1085344/openai-super-alignment-rogue-agi-gpt-4), [Source 2](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ilya-sutskever-man-center-openai-211351628.html).\n\n[Reports indicate that Sutskever has been less visible within OpenAI.](https://gizmodo.com.au/2023/12/ilya-sutskevers-team-at-openai-built-tools-to-control-a-superhuman-ai/). There have been speculations about him potentially leaving the organization, especially considering the recent leadership turmoil and his hiring of a lawyer. However, his exact status and future role at OpenAI remain unconfirmed as of now." }, { "id": 20720, "title": "Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?", "short_title": "US Core Inflation Above 3% in 2024?", "url_title": "US Core Inflation Above 3% in 2024?", "slug": "us-core-inflation-above-3-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T05:18:13.225603Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.931756Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 19, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T15:42:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 434, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2844, "type": "tournament", "name": "ACX 2024 Prediction Contest", "slug": "ACX2024", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cover.webp", "prize_pool": "2500.00", "start_date": "2024-01-01T12:00:00Z", "close_date": "2025-02-01T21:03:36Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2025-01-30T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-12-20T21:03:36.088463Z", "edited_at": "2025-02-01T20:45:18.952794Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20720, "title": "Will annual US core CPI inflation be above 3% in December 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T05:18:13.225603Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-16T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-15T15:42:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-15T16:00:09.065789Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).\n\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\n\nBelow is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1d3Hg&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if year over year core CPI inflation (CPI excluding food and energy) exceeds 3% from December 2023 to December 2024, according to seasonally adjusted data when first [published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20720, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735683016.380694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735683016.380694, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.69 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.83 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.31000000000000005, 0.69 ], "means": [ 0.6748556999042026 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.03391820040619096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003401008280285153, 0.0, 0.01009959186553306, 1.1424984562598079e-05, 0.0, 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[CPI](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_price_index), or Consumer Price Index, is one of the most widely used measures of inflation by investors. Created by analyzing the price of a certain basket of widely used, urban consumer goods over time with relation to a base time, the CPI can show either monthly or yearly price fluctuations. The CPI for specific cities, types of goods, and by wage-earners can also be calculated. CPI data is released monthly by the [US Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm).\n\nIf the CPI rises, showing a positive percent increase in inflation, goods will become more expensive in the future, thereby decreasing the purchasing power of savings and increasing the amount necessary to pay back on loans of all kinds.\n\nBelow is a graph of the annual percentage change in core CPI in the US, seasonally adjusted, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initial estimate from each month.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=1d3Hg&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 20709, "title": "Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?", "short_title": "Will Type 1 diabetes be cured by 2032?", "url_title": "Will Type 1 diabetes be cured by 2032?", "slug": "will-type-1-diabetes-be-cured-by-2032", "author_id": 162060, "author_username": "davidarnalgar", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T01:30:45.113310Z", "published_at": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.444778Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15865, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "biosecurity", "emoji": "🧬", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3691, "name": "Health & Pandemics", "slug": "health-pandemics", "emoji": "🦠", "description": "Health & Pandemics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20709, "title": "Will there be an FDA-approved cure for Type 1 diabetes before January 1, 2032?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T01:30:45.113310Z", "open_time": "2024-04-05T08:26:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-04-08T08:26:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-04-08T08:26:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2032-01-01T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T11:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.\n\nPotential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.\n\nWhile progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.\n\nReferences:\n\n- Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/)\n- Medscape: [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713)\n- UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/)\n- Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes)\n- The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/)\n- Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if, before January 1, 2032, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approves a treatment that meets the following definition of a cure for Type 1 diabetes:\n\nA cure reverses type 1 diabetes by restoring natural insulin production and normalizing blood glucose levels long-term without further insulin administration in the majority of cases. Specifically, the treatment must demonstrate sustained insulin independence and normoglycemia for at least 1 year in 60% or more of clinical trial participants. Treatments that just help manage the disease's symptoms, require continuing insulin therapy, or require immunosuppressants would not qualify as a cure.\n\nIf no such FDA-approved curative treatment exists before January 1, 2032, the question resolves as \"No\".\n\nIn case of ambiguity, the determination of whether an approved treatment meets the criteria for a cure will be made by referencing the published clinical trial results, product labeling, and other documentation from the treatment's manufacturer and the FDA approval documents.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20709, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1755747745.503106, "end_time": 1759745016.973222, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1755747745.503106, "end_time": 1759745016.973222, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.20444073954676634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.42015354651611236, 0.7286040831239278, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1249933535242813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8569744876588683, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5716794258970173, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287844.99771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287844.99771, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9460746362393749, 0.05392536376062505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 38, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Type 1 diabetes is an autoimmune disease where the pancreas produces little or no insulin, resulting in elevated blood sugar levels. Current standards of care involve insulin therapy and blood glucose monitoring but do not cure the underlying condition.\n\nPotential cures in development include cell therapies to restore insulin-producing cells, gene therapies to modulate the immune system, and approaches to encapsulate therapeutic cells. Several clinical trials are underway exploring these methods, with the goal of restoring natural insulin production without ongoing treatment.\n\nWhile progress has been made, an FDA-approved therapy definitively meeting the criteria for a cure remains elusive as of March 2024. This question asks whether such a curative treatment will cross that milestone by the beginning of 2032.\n\nReferences:\n\n- Stat News: [Two type 1 diabetes patients now freed from insulin shots with cell therapy, Vertex reports](https://www.statnews.com/2023/06/23/vertex-diabetes-cell-therapy-insulin/)\n- Medscape: [Beta Cells From Stem Cells: Nearing a Cure for Type 1 Diabetes](https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/993713)\n- UBC: [Stem cell-based treatment controls blood sugar in people with Type 1 diabetes](https://news.ubc.ca/2023/11/27/stem-cell-based-treatment-for-type-1-diabetes/)\n- Diabetes UK: [Arthritis drug could offer immunotherapy hope type 1 diabetes](https://www.diabetes.org.uk/about_us/news/arthritis-drug-could-offer-immunotherapy-hope-type-1-diabetes)\n- The Telegraph: [Cure for type 1 diabetes 'on horizon' after ground-breaking new treatment](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/10/04/type-1-diabetes-cure-ground-breaking-stem-cell-treatment/)\n- Medical News Today: [FDA approves first cellular therapy for type 1 diabetes: What does it do?](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/fda-approves-first-cellular-therapy-for-type-1-diabetes-what-does-it-do)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [A Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy Study of VX-880 in Participants With Type 1 Diabetes](https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04786262)\n- ClinicalTrials gov: [An Open-Label, FIH Study Evaluating the Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of VCTX211 Combination Product in Subjects With T1D](https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT05565248)" }, { "id": 20708, "title": "If Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?", "short_title": "Trump on CO Ballot?", "url_title": "Trump on CO Ballot?", "slug": "trump-on-co-ballot", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-20T00:06:08.253076Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T00:30:00Z", "edited_at": 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Donald Trump is the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, will his name appear on the ballot in the State of Colorado on Election Day?", "created_at": "2023-12-20T00:06:08.253076Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T00:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-21T00:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-21T00:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-11-05T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-11-06T18:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-16T18:42:18.584368Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-09-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-09-01T18:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 19, 2023, the Colorado Supreme Court issued a ruling [barring Donald Trump from appearing on the state's ballot in 2024](https://www.sos.state.co.us/). In a [4-3 decision](https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/02nd_Judicial_District/Denver_District_Court/11_17_2023%20Final%20Order.pdf), \"“a majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\"\n\n> “We do not reach these conclusions lightly,” [the Colorado majority opinion reads](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/colorado-disqualify-donald-trump-00132578). “We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.”\n\nTrump vowed to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if:\n\n1. Donald Trump is the [Republican Nominee for President of the United States in 2024](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11370/2024-republican-nominee-for-us-prez/)\n2. Donald Trump's name appears as the Republican candidate on the general election ballot used by voters in the the state of Colorado on Election Day, according to the [Colorado Secretary of State](https://www.sos.state.co.us/)", "fine_print": "If Donald Trump is not the Republican Nominee for President in 2024, the question is annulled.\n\nElection day is scheduled to be Tuesday, November 5, 2024. If the date changes to a different date in 2024, the relevant date for this question will adjust as well. 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In a [4-3 decision](https://www.courts.state.co.us/userfiles/file/Court_Probation/02nd_Judicial_District/Denver_District_Court/11_17_2023%20Final%20Order.pdf), \"“a majority of the court holds that Trump is disqualified from holding the office of president under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.\"\n\n> “We do not reach these conclusions lightly,” [the Colorado majority opinion reads](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/colorado-disqualify-donald-trump-00132578). “We are mindful of the magnitude and weight of the questions now before us. We are likewise mindful of our solemn duty to apply the law, without fear or favor, and without being swayed by public reaction to the decisions that the law mandates we reach.”\n\nTrump vowed to appeal the decision to the Supreme Court." }, { "id": 20707, "title": "Will a major shipping company announce that they are resuming shipments through the Red Sea before 2024?", "short_title": "Red Sea Shipping Resumes Before 2024?", "url_title": "Red Sea Shipping Resumes Before 2024?", "slug": "red-sea-shipping-resumes-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-19T23:11:51.235081Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.147473Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-26T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"2023-12-26T19:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-26T19:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Most of the world's largest [container](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies) and freight shipping companies [have announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/18/how-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-threaten-global-supply-chain.html) that they will pause shipments through the Red Sea due to [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) by Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea, however it remains to be seen how effective the protection will be and how soon merchant shipping will resume.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 19, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a major shipping company from the list below will resume shipments through the Red Sea.\n\n* Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)\n* Maersk\n* CMA CGM\n* Hapag-Lloyd\n* Evergreen\n* BP", "fine_print": "* An announcement that shipments through the Red Sea will resume is sufficient, so long as it's not conditional on other developments and, if a date or resumption is provided, the stated date of resumption is before January 15, 2024. For example, an announcement that shipments will resume when there are no Red Sea hostilities would not be sufficient, nor is an announcement that shipments will resume if the United States or another country provides additional protection above what it has committed to.\n* An announcement must be unambiguous and convey a planned course of action. For example \"we will resume shipments this week\" or \"we plan to. . .\" or \"we intend to. . .\" would all qualify. Statements or announcements that express a desire or goal will not qualify, for example \"we hope to resume shipments this week\" would not count. 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-0.11625819435126768 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703610473.213386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703610473.213386, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 59, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.39806679004885803, 0.601933209951142 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 245, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Most of the world's largest [container](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_largest_container_shipping_companies) and freight shipping companies [have announced](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/12/18/how-houthi-attacks-in-red-sea-threaten-global-supply-chain.html) that they will pause shipments through the Red Sea due to [ongoing attacks on vessels](https://apnews.com/article/red-sea-ship-attacks-bp-yemen-houthis-dcece18717aa59648ff9a6b04fbc798c) by Yemen's [Houthi rebels](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Houthi_movement).\n\nIn response to the attacks, the [US has announced](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/19/us-announces-naval-coalition-to-defend-red-sea-shipping-from-houthi-attacks) a naval protection force for merchant ships in the Red Sea, however it remains to be seen how effective the protection will be and how soon merchant shipping will resume." }, { "id": 20695, "title": "Will the US unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?", "short_title": "US Unemployment Rate Above 4% in 2024?", "url_title": "US Unemployment Rate Above 4% in 2024?", "slug": "us-unemployment-rate-above-4-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": "christian", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-19T05:59:08.706511Z", "published_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.659006Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "comment_count": 16, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T22:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 433, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, 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unemployment rate be above 4% in November 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-19T05:59:08.706511Z", "open_time": "2024-01-01T07:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-12-15T22:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-12-15T22:33:41.247413Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-11-30T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the monthly U-3 unemployment figure, in percent, seasonally adjusted, for November, 2024 is greater than 4.0%. Resolution will be determined according to the first estimate published for November 2024 by the BLS, typically found [here](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20695, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732955892.915052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732955892.915052, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 431, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.75 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.25, 0.75 ], "means": [ 0.7454828985602382 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.7338509963571828e-05, 0.04464509885368933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.825180878529697e-05, 0.0, 4.1764609489094735e-05, 0.010315316641019954, 0.0, 0.0013578667754192367, 0.0, 0.0007225020984462627, 0.0, 0.012402788553810657, 0.0028143382342626566, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010003633881037364, 2.493381870246812e-06, 0.04860229182906113, 0.0, 1.6130252283247462e-06, 0.0014334673511507178, 6.597771445669376e-06, 0.014127524981135809, 0.0002464453007836819, 0.10211629063014638, 0.07180340447003636, 0.0, 0.10998334921465336, 0.04880931545012711, 0.0, 0.016426306965568977, 0.0073169892185766154, 0.11220657518487595, 0.000686452534832111, 0.0015309431201380756, 0.013684609037469285, 0.005820407696883412, 0.11567352829890815, 0.0025751811958250794, 0.039292015325454045, 0.05298397697362617, 0.1133580905514529, 0.026279285830181943, 0.03495672865560412, 0.14669981511162516, 5.5115016789443774e-05, 0.01534365500696944, 0.2421231594780594, 0.007501296841409054, 0.036083641266519854, 0.0011193623595091334, 0.024731286055411323, 0.14443599805862528, 0.11853041218425017, 0.9080761458617526, 0.645236695894072, 5.9491412269954786e-08, 1.0357474287246904, 0.005789314096472818, 0.7117976340581335, 0.5164196274883692, 0.44459027611984403, 0.6539938215551034, 0.815574097085682, 0.2173058717914154, 8.170194878032299e-05, 0.5581955582897768, 4.84052687901493, 0.942741576191749, 1.19167369281887, 0.6962456820487417, 0.48171611124724795, 4.868010785607269, 1.4093797731112314, 0.9154514581476905, 1.5286866878023826, 1.371238158308218, 5.464678874284566, 0.21200047161190338, 0.20123227695954707, 0.08108543710436569, 0.7243016718017237, 2.4039528269656643, 6.786902712527259e-07, 0.824725039425952, 0.3634850015339574, 0.2683700123101659, 0.7539437071457047, 0.06325763216418588, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3368142524913861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8077925366988494 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 12.132597269893353, "peer_score": 28.082513052239396, "coverage": 0.9998661133695773, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998661133695773, "spot_peer_score": 7.755131065556152, "baseline_archived_score": 12.132597269893353, "peer_archived_score": 28.082513052239396, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.755131065556152 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286861.969026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286861.969026, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 427, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2904959131411763, 0.7095040868588237 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 10, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 902, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US [Bureau of Labor Statistics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bureau_of_Labor_Statistics) (BLS) provides monthly estimates of the [unemployment rate](https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/080415/true-unemployment-rate-u6-vs-u3.asp) in the United States. The most commonly cited unemployment figure is U-3 unemployment, which measures the share of people aged 16 and over in the labor force (meaning people employed or seeking employment) who are unemployed. The BLS [typically releases](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm) its unemployment estimates for a month in the first half of the following month.\n\nBelow is a graph of the monthly seasonally adjusted U-3 unemployment rate, from the [Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Reserve_Bank_of_St._Louis). **Note that the underlying source is the BLS, though the chart may update with subsequent estimates published by the BLS and may not reflect the initially published estimates.**\n<iframe src=\"https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/graph-landing.php?g=XFpS&width=100%25&height=475\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" style=\"overflow:hidden; width:100%; height:550px;\" allowTransparency=\"true\" loading=\"lazy\"></iframe>" }, { "id": 20694, "title": "Will the S&P 500 index go up over 2024?", "short_title": "S&P Goes Up In 2024?", "url_title": "S&P Goes Up In 2024?", "slug": "sp-goes-up-in-2024", "author_id": 103275, "author_username": 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"2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-01T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T18:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-02T14:47:29.923218Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-01T05:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on December 31, 2024 is higher than that on December 29, 2023.", "fine_print": "The \"close\" values shown on the [history page of Yahoo finance](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history?p=%5EGSPC) will be used.", "post_id": 20694, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735695551.588868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 731, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735695551.588868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 731, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.98 ], "centers": [ 0.995 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0050000000000000044, 0.995 ], "means": [ 0.977149287404223 ], "histogram": [ [ 2.94787326065662e-07, 0.009766764570179949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 3.259676788701991e-08, 3.7754995145512136e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.78066629983488e-05, 0.00047781246288097507, 0.007109739781250202, 0.0, 2.0138212172863334e-07, 1.419793802200719e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0866536530588168e-07, 4.505505807647878e-05, 8.013150317043204e-07, 3.270659620766691e-10, 0.0, 0.0, 0.018037852675051678, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 7.409057994790314e-05, 0.0, 5.7864904556084356e-11, 2.8354236812932755e-07, 0.0, 6.104376928403015e-07, 0.0010722438261093806, 2.4531102731846745e-09, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0024287473049727955, 0.0, 0.00034977249089533923, 0.0, 0.012432028279098348, 0.0016722169926550183, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11798326658026567, 0.0, 0.008589250561689977, 9.24564976363688e-05, 1.847154924029249e-07, 0.05666399309398025, 7.336618419457592e-09, 0.007209499374090879, 7.460128920775892e-05, 3.203134800240527e-07, 0.0, 2.7281285328661887e-05, 0.0335029111385992, 0.0020228328632861865, 0.004563932274200702, 1.4761297798676784e-05, 0.009058892724313313, 0.04218407299715587, 0.006752950491048553, 0.0016403822498529648, 0.003590648448419588, 0.0024359123254207144, 0.024165828953224514, 2.903707291510208e-05, 0.001585870905783889, 0.01363876296768188, 0.0031427796841806623, 0.04457023150038715, 0.20004488677369034, 0.0047961083598483, 0.0009625383424937866, 0.0003337096589717149, 0.19590597355465283, 0.04783515521787526, 0.006219301257900637, 0.00026193227140539516, 0.006685225723604487, 0.2693199523590974, 0.10004980601659791, 0.2154615304487079, 0.1785740760533949, 0.5622060310379842, 1.3980915860271086, 0.11329726181053172, 0.5474494660474566, 0.19886509898592009, 0.9305231228385602, 2.1947589057951546, 1.7508052110591978, 2.368433301586003, 4.854633521021704, 35.99294307090811 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 81.28995311389086, "peer_score": 22.325125097455405, "coverage": 0.9998994270360879, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9998994270360879, "spot_peer_score": 11.854228894598783, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 81.28995311389086, "peer_archived_score": 22.325125097455405, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.854228894598783, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287900.057187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 725, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287900.057187, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 725, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0482595299242401, 0.9517404700757599 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 22, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 1749, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The S&P 500, also known as the Standard & Poor's 500, is a stock market index that measures the stock performance of 500 large companies listed on the stock exchanges in the United States. It is one of the most widely followed equity indices and is considered to be one of the best representations of the U.S. stock market. The companies included in the index are leading corporations from all sectors of the economy, including technology, healthcare, finance, and consumer discretionary, among others. Changes in the S&P 500 are used as a key indicator of the overall health and direction of the U.S. economy." }, { "id": 20592, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?", "short_title": "SCOTUS Agrees to Hear Trump Immunity Case?", "url_title": "SCOTUS Agrees to Hear Trump Immunity Case?", "slug": "scotus-agrees-to-hear-trump-immunity-case", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-15T23:34:47.597540Z", "published_at": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.178400Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3688, "name": "Law", "slug": "law", "emoji": "⚖️", "description": "Law", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20592, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court grant a writ of certiorari to the presidential immunity case before February 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-15T23:34:47.597540Z", "open_time": "2023-12-16T15:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-19T15:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-19T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-01-15T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-22T19:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before February 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision granting a writ of certiorari before judgment for the [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.", "fine_print": "* A writ of certiorari granted to a successor case consisting of one or more cases merged with the petition filed by Jack Smith against Donald Trump will also resolve the question as **Yes**.", "post_id": 20592, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703278028.163792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703278028.163792, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "centers": [ 0.7 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.30000000000000004, 0.7 ], "means": [ 0.5754230494168358 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2102183212949817, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2783559331905674, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.7619265305459179, "coverage": 0.19661628314583024, "baseline_score": -13.568310707385256, "spot_peer_score": 11.740686452978402, "peer_archived_score": -0.7619265305459179, "baseline_archived_score": -13.568310707385256, "spot_peer_archived_score": 11.740686452978402 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703274514.107975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703274514.107975, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7611069346695021, 0.23889306533049792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th." }, { "id": 20588, "title": "Will any Western countries go to war against each other before 2070?", "short_title": "Western War by 2070", "url_title": "Western War by 2070", "slug": "western-war-by-2070", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-15T14:55:06.602572Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:18:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:17:20.621231Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:18:00Z", "comment_count": 28, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2070-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:18:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 61, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": 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"question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Since the end of the [Second World War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II), [no two Western countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Peace) [have gone to war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Europaea) [with each other.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) This is notable because [wars between Western countries were once a regular occurrence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe)\n\nThis questions asks: will there be a war between two Western countries before 2070?", "resolution_criteria": "For the purposes of this question, \"Western\" countries [will be defined as the following:](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_world)\n\n| | | |\n|----------------------|----------------------|----------------|\n| Austria | Belgium | Canada |\n| Croatia | Czechia | Denmark |\n| Estonia | Finland | France |\n| Germany | Great Britain | Hungary |\n| Iceland | Ireland | Italy |\n| Latvia | Lithuania | Luxembourg |\n| Netherlands | Poland | Portugal |\n| Slovakia | Slovenia | Spain |\n| Sweden | Switzerland | United States of America |\n|Australia | New Zealand|\n\n\n\nFor the purpose of this question, \"engage in a war\" will be defined as one or more of the following being true:\n\n- One Western country formally declares war on another Western country, or announces that it is in a state of war with that nation.\n\n- A clear consensus of international authorities indicates that a state of active warfare exists between those two countries.\n\n- An armed conflict occurs between two or more Western countries in which at least 1,000 nationals of all Western belligerents, or 0.005% (1 out of 20,000) of the de facto pre-war population of any one Western belligerent, are confirmed to have been killed directly by armed combat within a 1 year (365 day) period. In the event that such a conflict begins less than 1 year prior to this question's resolution date, deaths occurring after the specified resolution date will not be considered.", "fine_print": "In the event that one Western nation states that it is at war with another as a [joke](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Whisky_War) or [stunt](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_Wars), Metaculus will use their discretion to determine whether that statement describes a de facto declaration of war by one country on another.\n\nAccidental or unauthorized use of weapons or military force during peacetime will not count towards the resolution of this question. Metaculus will use their discretion to determine if this applies.", "post_id": 20588, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758493029.987065, "end_time": 1785684606.253, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758493029.987065, "end_time": 1785684606.253, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.23590299395992928 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.006095433581409484, 0.04213714619526193, 0.0, 0.7752795826975932, 0.0, 0.757823796949637, 0.0, 0.7828263969507177, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8080954139305232, 0.0, 0.6971897195925942, 0.0, 0.0, 0.39901389565932877, 0.3200366318987697, 0.0, 1.7106031132854025, 0.1126153833912574, 1.660372178098266, 0.509207908828278, 0.3815029447976801, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0355351248589926, 0.0, 0.4414177989399567, 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"start_time": 1728289172.849007, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 60, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9313079260494632, 0.06869207395053678 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 116, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Since the end of the [Second World War](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II), [no two Western countries](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_Peace) [have gone to war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Europaea) [with each other.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pax_Americana) This is notable because [wars between Western countries were once a regular occurrence.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_conflicts_in_Europe)\n\nThis questions asks: will there be a war between two Western countries before 2070?" }, { "id": 20569, "title": "Will NASA re-establish communications with Voyager 1 before 1 Jan 2024?", "short_title": "Voyager 1 comms reestablished by 2024?", "url_title": "Voyager 1 comms reestablished by 2024?", "slug": "voyager-1-comms-reestablished-by-2024", "author_id": 118622, "author_username": "kqr", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-15T07:46:54.915947Z", "published_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.914170Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:29:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-01-03T17:29:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-20T19:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 58, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } 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"recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[The Voyager probes](https://science.nasa.gov/mission/voyager/voyager-1/) are the human-made machines that have gone both the fastest and the furthest away from Earth. They were launched in the late '70s,\n\n> Initially designed to last five years, the Voyager probes are the two longest-operating spacecraft in history. Their exceptionally long lifespans mean that both spacecraft have provided additional insights about our solar system and beyond after achieving their preliminary goals of flying by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune decades ago. \n\nHowever, their continued operation relies on creative ways to shut down instruments to conserve power, and it's not always smooth sailing:\n\n> Along the way, both spacecraft have encountered unexpected issues and dropouts, including a seven-month period in 2020 when Voyager 2 couldn’t communicate with Earth. In August, the mission team used a long-shot “shout” technique to restore communications with Voyager 2 after a command inadvertently oriented the spacecraft’s antenna in the wrong direction. \n\n[Unfortunately, now](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/world/voyager-1-computer-issue-scn/index.html)\n\n> Voyager 1’s flight data system now appears to be stuck on auto-repeat. The mission team first noticed the issue November 14, when the flight data system’s telecommunications unit began sending back a repeating pattern of ones and zeroes, like it was trapped in a loop. \n\nA fix is [unlikely to to implemented](https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/12/12/engineers-working-to-resolve-issue-with-voyager-1-computer/) before the new year.\n\n> It could take several weeks for engineers to develop a new plan to remedy the issue. Finding solutions to challenges the probes encounter often entails consulting original, decades-old documents written by engineers who didn’t anticipate the issues that are arising today. As a result, it takes time for the team to understand how a new command will affect the spacecraft’s operations in order to avoid unintended consequences.\n\nThis question answers *how* unlikely, exactly?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if, before 1 January 2024, NASA or other credible sources reports that the communications or computer issue with Voyager 1 has been solved. If the solution does not involve the suspected flight data system (FDS), this still resolves **Yes**, as long as NASA starts receiving either of \"science or engineering data\".\n\nIn all other cases this question resolves **No**.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20569, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704012618.850146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704012618.850146, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.1278625066679621 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7974066400948856, 3.733910441097584, 1.2932464150784564, 0.17857604057686172, 0.05805593081998391, 0.55695883704389, 0.0, 0.04312565778056248, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8190790998590399, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9211066549398389, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03041962011451429, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08895535332445731, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2147640392565064, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0020262681176405166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 10.79201190787003, "coverage": 0.999829866203428, "baseline_score": 93.28441693192275, "spot_peer_score": 7.392943039140205, "peer_archived_score": 10.79201190787003, "baseline_archived_score": 93.28441693192275, "spot_peer_archived_score": 7.392943039140205 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704012618.878396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704012618.878396, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 58, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 186, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[The Voyager probes](https://science.nasa.gov/mission/voyager/voyager-1/) are the human-made machines that have gone both the fastest and the furthest away from Earth. They were launched in the late '70s,\n\n> Initially designed to last five years, the Voyager probes are the two longest-operating spacecraft in history. Their exceptionally long lifespans mean that both spacecraft have provided additional insights about our solar system and beyond after achieving their preliminary goals of flying by Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus and Neptune decades ago. \n\nHowever, their continued operation relies on creative ways to shut down instruments to conserve power, and it's not always smooth sailing:\n\n> Along the way, both spacecraft have encountered unexpected issues and dropouts, including a seven-month period in 2020 when Voyager 2 couldn’t communicate with Earth. In August, the mission team used a long-shot “shout” technique to restore communications with Voyager 2 after a command inadvertently oriented the spacecraft’s antenna in the wrong direction. \n\n[Unfortunately, now](https://edition.cnn.com/2023/12/13/world/voyager-1-computer-issue-scn/index.html)\n\n> Voyager 1’s flight data system now appears to be stuck on auto-repeat. The mission team first noticed the issue November 14, when the flight data system’s telecommunications unit began sending back a repeating pattern of ones and zeroes, like it was trapped in a loop. \n\nA fix is [unlikely to to implemented](https://blogs.nasa.gov/sunspot/2023/12/12/engineers-working-to-resolve-issue-with-voyager-1-computer/) before the new year.\n\n> It could take several weeks for engineers to develop a new plan to remedy the issue. Finding solutions to challenges the probes encounter often entails consulting original, decades-old documents written by engineers who didn’t anticipate the issues that are arising today. As a result, it takes time for the team to understand how a new command will affect the spacecraft’s operations in order to avoid unintended consequences.\n\nThis question answers *how* unlikely, exactly?" }, { "id": 20568, "title": "Before 2024, will it be announced that either of the Harvard or MIT presidents will vacate their positions?", "short_title": "Harvard or MIT Presidents Vacate Before 2024?", "url_title": "Harvard or MIT Presidents Vacate Before 2024?", "slug": "harvard-or-mit-presidents-vacate-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-14T22:47:48.294931Z", "published_at": "2023-12-15T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.336519Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-15T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": 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"group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and Israel's military response, a number of [protests were held at US universities](https://abcnews.go.com/US/israel-hamas-war-college-campuses-edge-tackling-issue/story?id=105046118), some of which included students making [antisemitic threats](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-investigating-antisemitic-threats-targeting-cornell-universitys-jewish/story?id=104480004). In November, the federal government [opened civil rights investigations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-colleges-civil-rights-investigation-discrimination-f93aa9355f4c2d97b188df8546cc5131) into a number of universities.\n\nIn late November the House Committee on Education and the Workforce [announced a hearing](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/business/antisemitism-hearing-college-presidents/index.html) to be held on December 5th featuring testimony on antisemitism on college campuses from Harvard President Claudine Gay, MIT President Sally Kornbluth and Penn President Liz Magill. Following the hearing [all three were criticized](https://apnews.com/article/harvard-penn-mit-president-congress-intifada-193a1c81e9ebcc15c5dd68b71b4c6b71) for not providing clear answers in response to questions about whether antisemitic speech violated university policy. Penn President Liz Magill stepped down after receiving backlash for her responses during the hearing.\n\nClaudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth remain presidents of their respective universities, and on December 12th the Harvard board [unanimously expressed their support](https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/business/claudine-gay-harvard/index.html) for Gay. However, Gay has also [faced accusations of plagiarism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/14/gay-new-plagiarism-allegations/) during the increased scrutiny, and on December 13th the US House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning antisemitism that included a call for Gay and Kornbluth to step down. [According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/antisemitism-vote-harvard-mit-house-democrats):\n\n>The resolution passed 303-126, with 84 Democrats voting in favor of it and 125 voting against it. All Republicans except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted for it. . . The measure was voted on under a process known as suspension of the rules, meaning it needed two-thirds, or roughly 290 votes, to pass.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, it is announced by the respective president or university that either Harvard President Claudine Gay or Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) President Sally Kornbluth will vacate or have vacated the office of president at their university, for any reason.", "fine_print": "* The position need not be vacated before 2024, only an announcement is required.\n* Such announcement will resolve the question as **Yes**, even if it's later reversed.", "post_id": 20568, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056689.694851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056689.694851, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.025574857456343837 ], "histogram": [ [ 8.135727910036803, 5.168271642420334, 0.1523225041213806, 0.215881738789087, 0.17414470245616756, 0.2740831875373049, 0.0, 0.23201409926898375, 0.040774056763402934, 0.001511304389081846, 1.3464759530682977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02356201288525273, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5285340505500855, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07282349883545862, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591925143156949, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.00035468804191158816, 0.0009641420590999903, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 7.724880805778989, "coverage": 0.9999820192017178, "baseline_score": 90.47056253779624, "spot_peer_score": 14.148291385983645, "peer_archived_score": 7.724880805778989, "baseline_archived_score": 90.47056253779624, "spot_peer_archived_score": 14.148291385983645 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1704056689.958882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1704056689.958882, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 80, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9995, 0.0005 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 370, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel and Israel's military response, a number of [protests were held at US universities](https://abcnews.go.com/US/israel-hamas-war-college-campuses-edge-tackling-issue/story?id=105046118), some of which included students making [antisemitic threats](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/fbi-investigating-antisemitic-threats-targeting-cornell-universitys-jewish/story?id=104480004). In November, the federal government [opened civil rights investigations](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-colleges-civil-rights-investigation-discrimination-f93aa9355f4c2d97b188df8546cc5131) into a number of universities.\n\nIn late November the House Committee on Education and the Workforce [announced a hearing](https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/28/business/antisemitism-hearing-college-presidents/index.html) to be held on December 5th featuring testimony on antisemitism on college campuses from Harvard President Claudine Gay, MIT President Sally Kornbluth and Penn President Liz Magill. Following the hearing [all three were criticized](https://apnews.com/article/harvard-penn-mit-president-congress-intifada-193a1c81e9ebcc15c5dd68b71b4c6b71) for not providing clear answers in response to questions about whether antisemitic speech violated university policy. Penn President Liz Magill stepped down after receiving backlash for her responses during the hearing.\n\nClaudine Gay and Sally Kornbluth remain presidents of their respective universities, and on December 12th the Harvard board [unanimously expressed their support](https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/12/business/claudine-gay-harvard/index.html) for Gay. However, Gay has also [faced accusations of plagiarism](https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2023/12/14/gay-new-plagiarism-allegations/) during the increased scrutiny, and on December 13th the US House of Representatives passed a resolution condemning antisemitism that included a call for Gay and Kornbluth to step down. [According to Axios](https://www.axios.com/2023/12/14/antisemitism-vote-harvard-mit-house-democrats):\n\n>The resolution passed 303-126, with 84 Democrats voting in favor of it and 125 voting against it. All Republicans except Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) voted for it. . . The measure was voted on under a process known as suspension of the rules, meaning it needed two-thirds, or roughly 290 votes, to pass." }, { "id": 20560, "title": "Will the US Supreme Court issue a decision on hearing the case about presidential immunity before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "Trump Immunity Cert Decision Before 2024?", "url_title": "Trump Immunity Cert Decision Before 2024?", "slug": "trump-immunity-cert-decision-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T16:34:22.742787Z", "published_at": "2023-12-14T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:09.025294Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-14T15:30:00Z", "comment_count": 33, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-22T19:27:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-22T19:27:00Z", "open_time": 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"tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": 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"binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2024, the US Supreme Court has issued a decision either granting or denying a writ of certiorari before judgment for the [petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) filed by US Special Counsel Jack Smith against Donald Trump.", "fine_print": "* The outcome of the decision is irrelevant, this question only asks whether such a decision has been issued.", "post_id": 20560, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703274478.450489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703274478.450489, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.26 ], "centers": [ 0.44 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.56, 0.44 ], "means": [ 0.499735741658842 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.37113480134217347, 0.43057241793187284, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3015410701684357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8896082579951491, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.008689560138641658, 0.0, 1.1403593525919868, 0.5604905061740477, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04678195401930797, 0.0063312489975652355, 0.03081720770343554, 0.3051103923009614, 0.711842550274585, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2298616135755798, 0.0, 1.1862697604478205, 0.0, 0.27805738515481254, 1.1251335909614124, 0.034326350332688736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909260441653166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1592171022412034, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14989147521115825, 0.0788563805239352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.063638487907526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08383481132998089, 0.7174764815915792, 0.16247035089338988, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18579727815834568, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07539365390346586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.605646147459896 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 14.544145172635842, "coverage": 0.4714652801637487, "baseline_score": -19.259923351569643, "spot_peer_score": 41.080237819376116, "peer_archived_score": 14.544145172635842, "baseline_archived_score": -19.259923351569643, "spot_peer_archived_score": 41.080237819376116 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1703272165.15611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1703272165.15611, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 65, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7250656572309966, 0.2749343427690034 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 250, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On December 11, 2023, US Special Counsel [Jack Smith](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Smith_(lawyer)) filed [a petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/DocketPDF/23/23-624/292946/20231211144948077_U.S.%20v.%20Donald%20J.%20Trump%20--%20final%20final.pdf) for a [writ of certiorari before judgment](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Certiorari_before_judgment) to the Supreme Court, seeking judgment on the following question:\n\n>Whether a former President is absolutely immune from federal prosecution for crimes committed while in office or is constitutionally protected from federal prosecution when he has been impeached but not convicted before the criminal proceedings begin.\n\nThis petition reflects the latest event in the ongoing [prosecution of Donald Trump for election interference](https://www.politico.com/interactives/2023/trump-criminal-investigations-cases-tracker-list/#jan-six), following an [attempt by Trump's lawyers to dismiss the case](https://apnews.com/article/trump-justice-department-jan-6-special-counsel-118943be656200bbc3f22cd8612c1f8b) on the grounds of presidential immunity and Judge Tanya Chutkan's decision [rejecting that argument](https://apnews.com/article/trump-capitol-riot-immunity-donald-trump-a98872759762c95fa925ff831df27388). Trump's legal team has appealed this decision to the US court of appeals, pausing proceedings in the district court, however the trial is [scheduled to begin March 4, 2024](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-supreme-court-immunity-special-counsel-jack-smith/), and an appeal might delay the proceedings.\n\nThe petition asks the Supreme Court to decide on the immunity issue promptly so that the trial can proceed as scheduled. The Supreme Court has [responded to the petition](https://www.supremecourt.gov/search.aspx?filename=/docket/docketfiles/html/public/23-624.html) with a motion to expedite consideration of the petition and directing Trump to file a response to the petition by December 20th." }, { "id": 20559, "title": "Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?", "short_title": "Labour Majority After Next UK Election?", "url_title": "Labour Majority After Next UK Election?", "slug": "labour-majority-after-next-uk-election", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:44.506260Z", "published_at": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:59.277105Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 75, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3685, "name": "Elections", "slug": "elections", "emoji": "🗳️", "description": "Elections", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20559, "title": "Will Labour have a majority in the House of Commons after the next UK General Election?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:44.506260Z", "open_time": "2023-12-14T18:14:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-17T18:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-17T18:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2025-01-20T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-05T07:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK's Conservative Party [won control of Parliament in 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) under David Cameron. Since then, the Conservatives have maintained control of Parliament. One of the key issues over the last decade was Britain's relationship with the European Union and its policies on immigration, with Conservatives ultimately paving the way for Brexit, while the Labour Party and other left-wing groups favored remaining.\n\nConservative leadership has been divided in recent years. In spite of this apparent weakness, Labour has also lacked a key leader, and the rise of the Scottish National Party, which shares appeal with Labour (their founder was Scottish), has led to a loss of most seats from Labour to the SNP. Some Scottish constituencies have experienced vote-splitting between Labour and the SNP, allowing Conservatives to gain seats there.\n\nCurrently, British law requires that the next general election be held [no later than January 28, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as \"Yes\" if the BBC reports that the Labour Party has won a majority of seats in the House of Commons after the next UK general election that takes place after December 13, 2023. Otherwise, the question resolves as \"No.\"\n\nFor the purpose of this question all MPs of the Labour and Co-operative Party are considered Labour MPs.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20559, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722746930.833507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722746930.833507, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 75, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9847608461183238 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0007129919161079304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015174815764353458, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20409162864023808, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.004095049893788444, 0.0, 0.0012808209520579696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0009797596903721119, 0.0016218528311726184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0034816323194887928, 0.013550184787389273, 0.0, 0.006379262637396644, 0.019372369342850363, 0.0, 0.0327181408019971, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03582325022318429, 0.011267889898822447, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.025725976524552732, 0.17051022884758463, 0.9368269783260588, 0.176921206317764, 0.3021711962239376, 13.862829937634636 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 11.956665876543834, "coverage": 0.5045197318317884, "baseline_score": 44.03903366572046, "spot_peer_score": 65.21628275861352, "peer_archived_score": 11.956665876543834, "baseline_archived_score": 44.03903366572046, "spot_peer_archived_score": 65.21628275861352 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722758485.870468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722758485.870468, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 76, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.002050076644020793, 0.9979499233559792 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 199, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK's Conservative Party [won control of Parliament in 2010](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_United_Kingdom_general_election) under David Cameron. Since then, the Conservatives have maintained control of Parliament. One of the key issues over the last decade was Britain's relationship with the European Union and its policies on immigration, with Conservatives ultimately paving the way for Brexit, while the Labour Party and other left-wing groups favored remaining.\n\nConservative leadership has been divided in recent years. In spite of this apparent weakness, Labour has also lacked a key leader, and the rise of the Scottish National Party, which shares appeal with Labour (their founder was Scottish), has led to a loss of most seats from Labour to the SNP. Some Scottish constituencies have experienced vote-splitting between Labour and the SNP, allowing Conservatives to gain seats there.\n\nCurrently, British law requires that the next general election be held [no later than January 28, 2025](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election)." }, { "id": 20558, "title": "Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?", "short_title": "More than 200k UK houses built?", "url_title": "More than 200k UK houses built?", "slug": "more-than-200k-uk-houses-built", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:43.335495Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.528991Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-02-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20558, "title": "Will more than 200k houses be built per year, on average, in England and Wales, during the next Parliament?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:34:43.335495Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:38:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:38:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:38:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-02-22T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-02-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-02-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A target set out in the 2019 Conservative manifesto for 300,000 homes a year by the mid-2020s was scrapped by Rishi Sunak last year and to date has not been replaced. \n\nSpeaking to BBC One’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg at the start of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, Starmer said his party would set a target of 1.5m new homes over five years\n\nSince 2017, on average, approximately 170k \"dwellings\" per year have been completed in England and Wales.", "resolution_criteria": "This resolves to \"Yes\" if, during the [59th UK Parliament](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_parliaments_of_the_United_Kingdom), an average of more than 200k dwellings are completed in England and Wales, per year, according to the [ONS](https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/housing/datasets/ukhousebuildingpermanentdwellingsstartedandcompleted).", "fine_print": "Metaculus will use calendar year figures for dwellings completed for all years in which the Parliament covers the full calendar year, and quarterly figures for all quarters in which the 59th Parliament covers the entirety of the quarter. Quarters in which the Parliament starts and ends will not be considered in the calculation.\n\nThe calculation done will be to sum the total number of completed dwellings, across England and Wales for the relevant years and quarters, and to divide that number by the number of years the Parliament was in session.", "post_id": 20558, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758112034.392419, "end_time": 1761863101.816326, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758112034.392419, "end_time": 1761863101.816326, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.1420120146612505 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.076154905979145, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 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the most extensive rollback of Trump-era restrictions on Caracas.\n\n> A new general license issued by the U.S. Treasury Department authorized OPEC member Venezuela, which had been under crushing sanctions since 2019, to produce and export oil to its chosen markets for the next six months without limitation." }, { "id": 20556, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027?", "short_title": "Berkshire Hathaway Dividend 2027", "url_title": "Berkshire Hathaway Dividend 2027", "slug": "berkshire-hathaway-dividend-2027", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:28:39.076016Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.710854Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20556, "title": "Will Berkshire Hathaway pay a dividend before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-12-13T15:28:39.076016Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T03:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T03:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T03:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2027-01-01T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Berkshire Hathaway](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com), led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under Buffett's long tenure around the time he started. Buffett maintains that [dividends would only be considered if Berkshire runs out of investment ideas](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/why-doesnt-berkshire-hathaway-pay-dividend.asp) or can't repurchase shares at favorable prices. As the company grows, finding high-return investments becomes challenging. With Buffett now 93 and Berkshire's massive size, speculation arises about a potential dividend, which would mark a significant shift in investing philosophy and could impact global investor sentiments.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if Berkshire Hathaway Inc. officially announces the payment of a dividend at any point before January 1, 2027. \n\nThe source of resolution will be an official statement by Berkshire Hathaway or a reputable financial news source citing such an official statement. \n\nIn the event that Berkshire Hathaway is confirmed to have paid a dividend prior to the end of 2026, the question immediately resolves **Yes.**", "fine_print": "If Berkshire Hathaway pays a dividend for only one publicly-traded share type (for instance, BRK.A but not BRK.B), the question will resolve **Yes**.", "post_id": 20556, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757369247.979782, "end_time": 1759588411.491485, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757369247.979782, "end_time": 1759588411.491485, "forecaster_count": 11, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.04 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.08567091129761634 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.20503512300522633, 0.0, 0.0, 1.585578570782796, 0.2680384629348616, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33940648712497556, 0.9314153526083463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1492084096309364, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6137315474320474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09860583995692926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288948.316443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288948.316443, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9772035419787225, 0.022796458021277527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Berkshire Hathaway](https://www.berkshirehathaway.com), led by Warren Buffett since the 1960s, has grown into a $750 billion enterprise, largely due to its strategy of reinvesting profits or buying back shares instead of paying dividends. The company paid its only dividend under Buffett's long tenure around the time he started. Buffett maintains that [dividends would only be considered if Berkshire runs out of investment ideas](https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/021615/why-doesnt-berkshire-hathaway-pay-dividend.asp) or can't repurchase shares at favorable prices. As the company grows, finding high-return investments becomes challenging. With Buffett now 93 and Berkshire's massive size, speculation arises about a potential dividend, which would mark a significant shift in investing philosophy and could impact global investor sentiments." }, { "id": 20547, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?", "short_title": "CA-20 Special election", "url_title": "CA-20 Special election", "slug": "ca-20-special-election", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-12T20:49:59.812516Z", "published_at": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:50.745492Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "comment_count": 14, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 12, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20547, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain California's 20th District in the 2024 special election?", "created_at": "2023-12-12T20:49:59.812516Z", "open_time": "2023-12-17T00:25:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:25:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:25:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-22T05:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-03-22T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Rep. Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to resign from the house before the end of 2023 (and before the end of his term). Subsequently, the Governor of California is mandated by CA state law to schedule a special election to replace McCarthy. [More information about the process can be found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_California%27s_20th_congressional_district_special_election). The election is will likely happen in April or May 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve **Yes** if a Republican wins the first special election for California's 20th congressional district held in 2024, as verified by the [California Secretary of State](https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/).\n\nIf no special election is held for CA-20 in 2024, the question is annulled.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20547, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716241429.095664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716241429.095664, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 23, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9886837994878848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.061064077012331824, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0339924118233929, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13981930080831617, 1.1164748146920505, 6.75929918566247 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.275280486948422, "coverage": 0.6107930979517645, "baseline_score": 56.74374940475448, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 6.275280486948422, "baseline_archived_score": 56.74374940475448, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1711097822.28094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1711097822.28094, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 12, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.01898046075283688, 0.9810195392471631 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 36, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Rep. Kevin McCarthy has announced his intention to resign from the house before the end of 2023 (and before the end of his term). Subsequently, the Governor of California is mandated by CA state law to schedule a special election to replace McCarthy. [More information about the process can be found here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_California%27s_20th_congressional_district_special_election). The election is will likely happen in April or May 2024." } ] }
