Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2900
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2880", "results": [ { "id": 26022, "title": "Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-sept-30-2024-will-the-international-criminal-court-issue-an-arrest-warrant-for-yoav-gallant", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.334036Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.186082Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26022, "title": "Before Sept 30, 2024, will the International Criminal Court issue an arrest warrant for Yoav Gallant?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.334036Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-30T19:54:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if before Sept 30, 2024, the International Criminal Court (ICC) issues a warrant of arrest for Yoav Gallant (Defense Minister). ", "fine_print": "A summons to voluntarily appear will not count, only an arrest warrant will resolve as Yes.\nSecret warrants will only resolve as Yes if they are publicly and officially disclosed by a credible source before Sept 30, 2024. Anonymous or unsourced reporting that such a warrant has been issued will not be sufficient. If a secret arrest warrant is issued before Sept 30, 2024, but not publicly known until after that, it will not count.", "post_id": 26022, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793890.633003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793890.633003, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.29 ], "centers": [ 0.55 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.44999999999999996, 0.55 ], "means": [ 0.5189953849566955 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07755734487342231, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.956003869115986, 1.109496035641102, 0.0, 0.3397520381310352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.033872059528572265, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4740774240660729, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 1.2061216880216605, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1467890332739308, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -15.200309344505014, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -15.200309344505014 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793890.666235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793890.666235, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.587971770479935, 0.41202822952006496 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In April 29, 2024, Axios [reported](https://www.axios.com/2024/04/29/netanyahu-biden-icc-arrest-warrants-war-crimes) that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked US President Joe Biden to help prevent the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague from issuing arrest warrants for Israeli cabinet officials stemming from possible allegations of war crimes in Gaza. NBC [reported](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/israel-fears-icc-issue-arrest-warrants-netanyahu-gaza-war-hamas-rcna149739) that these arrest warrants could come as early as this week, and Israel is working through back channels to try to prevent them from being issued. The US and other G7 countries are [reportedly](https://www.timesofisrael.com/report-several-nations-urging-icc-not-to-issue-arrest-warrants-for-israelis/) campaigning to dissuade the ICC from issuing the warrants so as to avoid jeopardizing a peace deal between Israel and Hamas.\n\nAs the ICC [explains](https://www.icc-cpi.int/about/how-the-court-works) on its official website, an arrest warrant is requested by the Prosecutor as part of the investigative stage before trial, especially in cases in which suspects do not appear voluntarily.\n\nThe ICC [was founded](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court) in 2002 following the wars in Rwanda and the former Yugoslavia, and it is [intended](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/29/icc-israel-warrants-gaza/) as a permanent court to investigate war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity done by individuals. It issued its first arrest warrants in 2005, and according to the AP [has issued](https://apnews.com/article/israel-hamas-gaza-international-criminal-court-hague-palestinians-1f683a6e2e150d91c415eb1d0a19a44d) a total of 42 arrest warrants. Last year the ICC issued arrest warrants for [Vladimir Putin](https://www.icc-cpi.int/news/situation-ukraine-icc-judges-issue-arrest-warrants-against-vladimir-vladimirovich-putin-and) and one of his government officials stemming from the ICC's investigation into the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia.\n\nSee Also\n\nBase rate information at Wikipedia: [International Criminal Court investigations](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/International_Criminal_Court_investigations)" }, { "id": 26021, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "at-the-paris-summer-olympics-in-2024-will-the-mens-100m-dash-winning-time-break-the-olympic-record-of-963s", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.090144Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:23.418775Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26021, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:21.090144Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T20:07:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Usain Bolt's 9.63s Olympic record has stood since the 2012 London Olympics. 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For August 2023, it was 306.187", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in U.S. City Average (CPIAUCSL) reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data\n(FRED) database at the CPIAUCSL webpage exceeds 316.000 for August 2024. It resolves as **No** if the rate is 316.000 or lower. The CPI-U Fred page is typically updated the day after the BLS release, per its [schedule](https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/cpi.htm). Therefore, resolution is expected on September 12, 2024. If FRED has not updated by September 30, 2024, Metaculus Admins will resolve the question based on the most recent credible data, typically from the BLS.", "fine_print": "For purposes of this question's resolution, there will not be any rounding of the figures posted at FRED.", "post_id": 26020, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793803.053002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793803.053002, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.45 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.62 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.55, 0.45 ], "means": [ 0.4499243986855481 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.3559153758998531, 0.0, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.927373545297111, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.4482361496814429, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0646131558445074, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22591343527834012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2761512300133666, 0.0, 1.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.8080343798877456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46359035143965543, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 13.750352374993504, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 13.750352374993504 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793803.089442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793803.089442, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5519604920941726, 0.44803950790582736 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 49, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "For May 2024, this value was 313.225. For August 2023, it was 306.187" }, { "id": 26019, "title": "Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-1-or-2-starship-launches-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-between-july-1-2024-and-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.915974Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.994055Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 52, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26019, "title": "Will exactly 1 or 2 Starship launches reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.915974Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. 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Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 26017, "title": "Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-1-starship-launch-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-between-july-1-2024-and-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.661655Z", "published_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.048449Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 49, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26017, "title": "Will exactly 1 Starship launch reach an altitude of 160 kilometers between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T20:25:20.661655Z", "open_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T14:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-12T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve Yes if exactly 1 SpaceX Starship launch reachs an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, between July 1, 2024 and Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 26017, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793864.167847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793864.167847, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.42345175176104793 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.05892591724387544, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.0, 0.3660118313347263, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.023631498669224205, 0.0, 0.10985474032489119, 0.0, 0.8305036517217669, 0.3390456620261779, 0.0, 2.5325522681110346, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.661438831481235, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11013622890266436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7549731054070336, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720793864.204462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720793864.204462, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7229238827494788, 0.27707611725052117 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 26006, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.878926Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.342949Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26006, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.878926Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T18:34:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 26006, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621507.923426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621507.923426, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.5809725675792854 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.057099978657575844, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.045093394185345845, 0.29345347581623216, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 1.8094732506327764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.0852703971363957, 0.0, 0.1476785992696715, 0.22459236340393357, 0.016588932653428593, 1.1949683778471338, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621507.956917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621507.956917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5436199528564423, 0.4563800471435577 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 26005, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-3-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.797426Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.490201Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26005, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.797426Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 26005, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621557.800969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621557.800969, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.326881194544342 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17967653265514222, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.045093394185345845, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.442392296955484, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 1.6924260949377716, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621557.827456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621557.827456, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8184933108501218, 0.1815066891498782 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 26004, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-3-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.693255Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.615321Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 41, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 26004, "title": "Will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T16:52:22.693255Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-17T18:33:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 26004, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621618.916926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621618.916926, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.42 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.47208705560990166 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8186979815576536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37684779947282754, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16823478873740735, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3331976193267136, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08601202193743229, 0.0, 0.90572503390162, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.5342541811581952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8417112571935682, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3626383260300461, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 2.4398281744059322, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.25733870929039265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621618.942852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621618.942852, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6868090322074913, 0.31319096779250866 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25993, "title": "Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?", "short_title": "Paris '24: five new medal-winning countries", "url_title": "Paris '24: five new medal-winning countries", "slug": "paris-24-five-new-medal-winning-countries", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T13:47:13.862683Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:00.984079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 17, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25993, "title": "Will at least 5 countries win their first Olympic medal at the 2024 Games?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T13:47:13.862683Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-29T05:18:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-29T05:18:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T11:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:22:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; the United States alone has won about 1 out of every 6 medals ever awarded, and a total of ten countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are about 60 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal; the most recent countries to win their first medal, in the Tokyo 2020 Games, were Burkina Faso, San Marino and Turkmenistan.\n\nWill at least 5 new countries win their first medal at the current Games?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" will not.", "post_id": 25993, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723352853.600356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723352853.600356, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.18 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8200000000000001, 0.18 ], "means": [ 0.17432618935655886 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1272233490047259, 0.9637927224004657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 1.2739859364129245, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6625868826230012, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.682871731373737, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3825759951002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.044020245511941045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.8525283570896285, "coverage": 0.9855839881838436, "baseline_score": -83.19358647196668, "spot_peer_score": 40.59856496592454, "peer_archived_score": 1.8525283570896285, "baseline_archived_score": -83.19358647196668, "spot_peer_archived_score": 40.59856496592454 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723352853.636714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723352853.636714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9776406364468101, 0.02235936355318991 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 53, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a fairly small number of countries; 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the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if 5 or more countries win their first-ever Olympic gold medal at the Paris Olympics, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "Liechtenstein has won gold at Winter Games, but not the Summer ones; it won't count as a \"first\" if it wins any in Paris.\n\nThe Refugee Olympic Team, which won no medals at either Games it has participated in, will count if it wins; \"Individual Neutral Athletes\" or [Independent Olympians at the Olympic Games](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Independent_Olympians_at_the_Olympic_Games) will not.", "post_id": 25992, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723372272.404366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723372272.404366, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.02 ], "centers": [ 0.06 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.94, 0.06 ], "means": [ 0.15198023505758732 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.1292980843277705, 0.884170266597878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9785523115815908, 0.77870555759313, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11965943345941518, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18756761545189093, 0.0, 0.06661056614161041, 0.5173663694464321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1355533277026459, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.151520000216143, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2739859364129244, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.32526806357643256, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22824074349844825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": -0.19351567166304007, "coverage": 0.998644259641243, "baseline_score": 54.10781862999856, "spot_peer_score": 12.2804366621924, "peer_archived_score": -0.19351567166304007, "baseline_archived_score": 54.10781862999856, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.2804366621924 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723372272.434013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723372272.434013, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9841255035180868, 0.015874496481913167 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 86, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Gold medal wins at the Summer Olympics](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/All-time_Olympic_Games_medal_table) are concentrated in a small number of countries; the United States alone has won nearly 20% of every gold medal ever awarded, and a total of eight countries account for the majority of medalists.\n\nConversely, prior to the opening of the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris, there are over 100 National Olympic Committees that have never won a gold medal. In recent Games, the number of countries that won their first gold were:\n\n* London 2012: 3\n* Rio de Janeiro 2016: 9\n* Tokyo 2020: 3\n\nWill this number be 5 or more this year?" }, { "id": 25989, "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "Paris '24 tennis: one player wins >1 medal", "url_title": "Paris '24 tennis: one player wins >1 medal", "slug": "paris-24-tennis-one-player-wins-1-medal", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:30:56.024760Z", "published_at": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.324501Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "comment_count": 8, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25989, "title": "Will an athlete win more than one medal for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:30:56.024760Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T03:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T20:59:06Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T20:59:06Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T23:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete wins at least two medals for tennis at the 2024 Paris Olympics.", "fine_print": "The type of medal does not matter, nor does it whether the doubles medal is in the athlete's own gender only or mixed.", "post_id": 25989, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722745844.496477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.152 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722745844.496477, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.01 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.152 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.99, 0.01 ], "means": [ 0.15195441255939635 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.834221846429016, 1.887705592064394, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.27467474026865935, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0644634174904052, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33423662601949417, 0.13404139897044384, 0.0, 0.09754477024200368, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22188647333713657, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17522973636453743, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 20.69594029327984, "coverage": 0.9938786410106668, "baseline_score": 18.658335644615534, "spot_peer_score": 56.128276484530126, "peer_archived_score": 20.69594029327984, "baseline_archived_score": 18.658335644615534, "spot_peer_archived_score": 56.128276484530126 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722745844.534242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722745844.534242, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.986528019793988, 0.01347198020601206 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 71, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tennis at the Olympics](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tennis_at_the_2024_Summer_Olympics) has five events: singles for men and women, and doubles for men, women and mixed. This makes it possible for the same athlete to win more than one medal. Will it happen?" }, { "id": 25988, "title": "Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?", "short_title": "Double team sport winner at 2024 Olympics", "url_title": "Double team sport winner at 2024 Olympics", "slug": "double-team-sport-winner-at-2024-olympics", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:09:26.815651Z", "published_at": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.700687Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "comment_count": 12, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 13, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25988, "title": "Will the same nation win more than one women's team sport at the 2024 Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T12:09:26.815651Z", "open_time": "2024-07-29T00:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-29T15:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-29T15:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T15:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T13:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):\n\n* Association football\n* Basketball 5×5\n* Basketball 3×3\n* Field hockey\n* Handball\n* Rugby sevens\n* Volleyball\n* Water polo\n\n(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each nation can qualify, unlike the other sports.)\n\nWill the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports? The", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **No** if women's teams representing eight different National Olympic Committees (NOC) win gold in these eight team sports at the 2024 Paris Olympics: \n\n- association football \n- 3×3 basketball\n- 5×5 basketball\n- field hockey\n- handball \n- rugby sevens\n- volleyball\n- water polo.\n\nOtherwise, the same NOC must have won at least two of these events, so the question resolves as **Yes**.\n\nThe question can resolve as soon as it becomes clear one of these conditions will happen (e.g. neither team playing the final of the last event has won any of the others).", "fine_print": "This question's main criteria (resolves as No if women's teams representing eight different NOCs win gold) has the assumption of no sharing of gold. For purposes of this question, [sharing a gold medal](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC9086848/) does not count. A country has to be the sole winner of at least two events in order to count.\n\nOne situation in which the question will be **Annulled** is as follows: \n\n- the condition for it resolving **Yes** has not yet happened; \n- it becomes apparent that not all eight events will have a clearly defined winner;\n- the event(s) that will not have a winner could have been won by a team that has won another sport.\n\nThis could happen if the final for some of the events is cancelled, for example, and the Olympics end without it being played.", "post_id": 25988, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722722190.944368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722722190.944368, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.7755795355383656 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6419315407681068, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.25423829106281975, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5457734721688206, 0.0, 0.9498461109253233, 0.0, 0.0, 2.401687497085938, 0.0, 0.38296948584461915, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11176713620916234, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3147232704804096, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1535851000440937 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 1.1765058780407642, "coverage": 0.9737839034678493, "baseline_score": 61.47253455856294, "spot_peer_score": -10.445452460960075, "peer_archived_score": 1.1765058780407642, "baseline_archived_score": 61.47253455856294, "spot_peer_archived_score": -10.445452460960075 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722758417.598768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722758417.598768, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 13, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2433299598940476, 0.7566700401059524 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 17, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Although most events in the Summer Olympics are contested by individual athletes, or small teams of 2-4, a few have one single larger team representing their entire country. [These are](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/information/team-sports-how-can-your-team-qualify-for-the-paris-2024-olympics):\n\n* Association football\n* Basketball 5×5\n* Basketball 3×3\n* Field hockey\n* Handball\n* Rugby sevens\n* Volleyball\n* Water polo\n\n(Beach volleyball is listed on the source but excluded from the question because two teams from each nation can qualify, unlike the other sports.)\n\nWill the women's teams of the same nation win at least two of these sports? The" }, { "id": 25984, "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "Men's pole vault OR broken at Paris 2024", "url_title": "Men's pole vault OR broken at Paris 2024", "slug": "mens-pole-vault-or-broken-at-paris-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:23:02.141778Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.845095Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 9, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25984, "title": "Will the Olympic record for the men's pole vault be broken at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:23:02.141778Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T03:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T03:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-05T21:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-03T05:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020, his only chance so far to break the Olympic record, the Swede did succeed at his 6.19m WR attempt, though he had already won gold with 6.02m.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games on account of doping, will his record be broken by the dominant world record holder, or maybe by another competitor?\n\nThe men's pole vault [is scheduled](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics/men-s-pole-vault?day=3-august) to begin August 3, 2024.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if at the 2024 Paris Olympics, any men's pole vault athlete clears the bar at 6.04m or higher, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Jumps made at either the qualifying or final round count for this question.", "post_id": 25984, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722585063.664853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722585063.664853, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "centers": [ 0.72 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.28, 0.72 ], "means": [ 0.7236345425002367 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.8423388801235393, 0.701700440519318, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3612783614395825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.64176579258661, "coverage": 0.9847771658299718, "baseline_score": 40.279100562361435, "spot_peer_score": 84.73488781924617, "peer_archived_score": 3.64176579258661, "baseline_archived_score": 40.279100562361435, "spot_peer_archived_score": 84.73488781924617 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722585543.059722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722585543.059722, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.3651422240693286, 0.6348577759306714 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Brazilian pole vaulter Thiago Braz set the Olympic record for the men's pole vault at 6.03m at the 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympics. Since then, the world record [has risen to 6.24m](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_pole_vault_world_record_progression), set by Swedish athlete Armand Duplantis earlier in 2024. In 2020, his only chance so far to break the Olympic record, the Swede did succeed at his 6.19m WR attempt, though he had already won gold with 6.02m.\n\nWith Braz suspended from the current Games on account of doping, will his record be broken by the dominant world record holder, or maybe by another competitor?\n\nThe men's pole vault [is scheduled](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/schedule/athletics/men-s-pole-vault?day=3-august) to begin August 3, 2024." }, { "id": 25983, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "2024: swimmer wins the most golds", "url_title": "2024: swimmer wins the most golds", "slug": "2024-swimmer-wins-the-most-golds", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:06:15.768979Z", "published_at": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:26.249119Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25983, "title": "Will a swimmer win the most gold medals at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T11:06:15.768979Z", "open_time": "2024-07-27T03:45:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-28T15:58:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-28T15:58:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T16:16:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-11T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have [athletes competing for multiple medals](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multiple_Olympic_medalists). American swimmer Michael Phelps, for example, would rank 41st all by himself in the medal table, compared with all countries competing in all Summer Olympics.\n\nWill the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves as **Yes** if the athlete with the highest number of 2024 Olympic gold medals competes in the [swimming events](https://olympics.com/en/paris-2024/sports/swimming). Otherwise it resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "If more than one athlete is tied for the most gold medals, this question resolves as **Yes** as long as at least one of them is a swimmer. All references to \"being a swimmer\" in this question mean \"competing in a swimming event\"; a gymnast e.g. who can swim does not count.", "post_id": 25983, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723311654.814296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723311654.814296, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.99 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.010000000000000009, 0.99 ], "means": [ 0.9834908473018689 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016588932653428593, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22459236340393357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1032509972237126, 0.0, 0.17967653265514222, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14417292188463762, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.0, 7.940355336347267 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 3.4075832457531012, "coverage": 0.9930934854075181, "baseline_score": 58.7449904164253, "spot_peer_score": 5.963171041340864, "peer_archived_score": 3.4075832457531012, "baseline_archived_score": 58.7449904164253, "spot_peer_archived_score": 5.963171041340864 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723311654.844092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723311654.844092, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.004392278828870166, 0.9956077211711298 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 62, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "A few Olympic sports - swimming, athletics, gymnastics - have [athletes competing for multiple medals](https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multiple_Olympic_medalists). American swimmer Michael Phelps, for example, would rank 41st all by himself in the medal table, compared with all countries competing in all Summer Olympics.\n\nWill the athlete winning the most gold medals at the 2024 Games in Paris be someone competing in the swimming events?" }, { "id": 25982, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "short_title": "Olympic 100m dash record broken in 2024", "url_title": "Olympic 100m dash record broken in 2024", "slug": "olympic-100m-dash-record-broken-in-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:52:27.493880Z", "published_at": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.714174Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "comment_count": 4, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25982, "title": "At the Paris Summer Olympics in 2024, will the men's 100m dash winning time break the Olympic record of 9.63s?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:52:27.493880Z", "open_time": "2024-07-26T12:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:30Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-27T14:30:30Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-04T20:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-04T07:45:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if any athlete runs the Men's 100M race at the 2024 Paris Summer Olympics in less than 9.63s, according to results posted by the [International Olympic Committee](https://olympics.com/en/olympic-games/olympic-results) or credible sources. If this does not happen, this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "The world record is 9.58s, but a time higher than that and lower than the Olympic record is still sufficient to resolve this question as **Yes**. Live transmission reporting a time as a record will be enough; the record need not be ratified by World Athletics, as that ratification can be later rescinded.\n\nWind speed in the direction of the race needs to be less than 2.0m/s, the normal condition for record validity; if the race is run with stronger winds, any records set there are not valid for this question.", "post_id": 25982, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722731411.853764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722731411.853764, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.06 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.06404534158777332 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.0, 1.960132617500252, 0.1497213340679702, 0.7076450515259304, 0.0, 2.0778329691858266, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0697448631166007, 0.8117493037268142, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 6.377800564570816, "coverage": 0.9967593432217151, "baseline_score": 91.39902223080132, "spot_peer_score": 2.7443302872442032, "peer_archived_score": 6.377800564570816, "baseline_archived_score": 91.39902223080132, "spot_peer_archived_score": 2.7443302872442032 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1722731411.884796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1722731411.884796, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9933695068787451, 0.006630493121254822 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 28, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [100m dash](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100_metres) is one of the highlights of track and field events, with the world champion often referred to as \"the world's fastest man\".\n\nThe [current Olympic record](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Men%27s_100_metres_world_record_progression) was set by Jamaican sprinter Usain Bolt's at the 2012 London Olympics. Will it be broken in Paris 2024?" }, { "id": 25981, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "short_title": "Kalenjin Olympic marathon winners 2024", "url_title": "Kalenjin Olympic marathon winners 2024", "slug": "kalenjin-olympic-marathon-winners-2024", "author_id": 101262, "author_username": "BrunoParga", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:43:02.596228Z", "published_at": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.843826Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 6, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3696, "name": "Sports & Entertainment", "slug": "sports-entertainment", "emoji": "🏀", "description": "Sports & Entertainment", "type": "category" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 25981, "title": "Will Kalenjin athletes win both the men's and women's marathon races at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "created_at": "2024-07-09T10:43:02.596228Z", "open_time": "2024-07-28T13:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-29T19:57:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-29T19:57:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-11T10:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-08-10T06:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport). It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cross Country Championships honours) have been earned by Kalenjin runners, in spite of the ethnicity representing less than 0.1% of the human population.\n\nWill they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if both the winner of the men's and winner's marathon at the 2024 Summer Olympics in Paris have Kalenjin roots, according to [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "The athletes do not have to compete for Kenya nor be entirely Kalenjin; as long as they have part of their ancestral or cultural origin in the ethnic group, this counts.", "post_id": 25981, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723106816.08883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723106816.08883, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.32 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.4444952625810771 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.637953589009114, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8078153568839619, 0.5898182977216933, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.488000457702583, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.799733973705056, "coverage": 0.9518707032002274, "baseline_score": 1.8787327480728642, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.799733973705056, "baseline_archived_score": 1.8787327480728642, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1723190589.296541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1723190589.296541, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 6, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8267300346494175, 0.17326996535058245 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 6, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Kalenjin people, native to Kenya, [dominate racing in distances between 800m and the marathon](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalenjin_people#Sport). It is estimated that 40% of the top honours available to men in international athletics at these distances (Olympic medals, World Championships medals, and World Cross Country Championships honours) have been earned by Kalenjin runners, in spite of the ethnicity representing less than 0.1% of the human population.\n\nWill they win both the men's and women's marathon at the 2024 Paris Olympics?" }, { "id": 25960, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-there-be-any-reported-human-to-human-transmission-of-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza-h5n1-globally-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.662760Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:03.712102Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25960, "title": "Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.662760Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T16:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after April 11, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reports that at least one case of human-to-human spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has occurred globally.", "fine_print": "* Reports that express degrees of confidence in the spread of human-to-human transmission will also count if they refer to a specific case. For example, if CDC reports that a specific infection of H5N1 in an individual was likely spread from another human this question will resolve as **Yes**.\n* An assessment that human-to-human spread is possible, plausible, or other language that does not clearly indicate that human-to-human transmission more likely than not occurred in at least one specific case will not be sufficient.\n* For the purposes of this question, all descendant lineages of H5N1 will count as H5N1.", "post_id": 25960, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707774.323899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707774.323899, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.08 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.22499999999999998 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.92, 0.08 ], "means": [ 0.13738203066561952 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.3660118313347263, 0.29095551644889905, 2.4970309530534567, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.9271021014166928, 0.0, 0.3748366482060179, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2891722503430878, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07073615502467667, 0.0, 1.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 87.97057662822883, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 87.97057662822883 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707774.350279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707774.350279, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9388964123127778, 0.06110358768722227 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On April 1, 2024, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) [reported](https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/p0401-avian-flu.html) that an individual in Texas had been infected with [highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) type A subtype H5N1](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1). The individual had been infected after exposure to dairy cattle that were presumed to be infected. The infection marks the first reported case in humans the United States since an infection in Colorado in 2022.\n\n[CDC describes](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/reported-human-infections.htm) H5N1 infections in humans as follows:\n\n>HPAI A(H5N1) virus infections have been reported in more than 890 people with approximately 50% case fatality proportion since 1997, including 20 cases and 7 deaths in Hong Kong during 1997-2003, and more than 870 cases reported in 22 countries since November 2003. Mild upper respiratory tract symptoms, lower respiratory tract disease, severe pneumonia with respiratory failure, encephalitis, and multi-organ failure have been reported. One case of asymptomatic infection was reported in Vietnam in 2011, and another asymptomatic case was reported in the United Kingdom that occurred in late 2021. The spectrum of illness caused by human infection with current H5N1 bird flu viruses is unknown. Since 2016, a small number of sporadic infections have been reported each year globally. Illness in humans from all bird flu virus infections has ranged in severity from no symptoms or mild illness to severe disease that resulted in death. [Total case counts reported](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/chart-epi-curve-ah5n1.html) since 1997 are available.\n\nCDC maintains a [Current Situation Summary](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/avian-flu-summary.htm) for H5N1 influenza, where as of April 11, 2024, detections in the US are listed as widespread for wild birds, sporadic for poultry flocks and mammals, and a total of two cases in humans in the US. It also describes person-to-person spread as \"None\" and a low current public health risk.\n\nIn its [Current U.S. Bird Flu Situation in Humans](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/inhumans.htm#:~:text=No%20known%20human%2Dto%2Dhuman,the%20United%20States%20and%20globally.) publication, CDC states:\n\n>No known human-to-human spread has occurred with the contemporary A(H5N1) viruses that are currently circulating in birds in the United States and globally." }, { "id": 25959, "title": "Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-someone-other-than-tadej-pogacar-or-jonas-vingegaard-win-the-tour-de-france-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.580999Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:07.104875Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25959, "title": "Will someone other than Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.580999Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. 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Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.\n\n In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25959, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707854.919258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707854.919258, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.23 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.77, 0.23 ], "means": [ 0.26627530419316936 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.8331016997804591, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07499429810609376, 0.0, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.0, 0.3597548430126823, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.5081247625180807, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.3733687775975512, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.04423342207722153, 0.8928392782038248, 1.097078341557532, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0215859302194357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8301688387783688, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 62.29303509201767, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 62.29303509201767 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707854.957638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707854.957638, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.892347326914105, 0.10765267308589495 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. 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Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)" }, { "id": 25958, "title": "Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-jonas-vingegaard-win-the-tour-de-france-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.500827Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:58.609092Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25958, "title": "Will Jonas Vingegaard win the Tour de France 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.500827Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:35:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.\n\n In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25958, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720708187.283683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720708187.283683, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.575 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.43918188155339294 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.6896218051583209, 0.0, 1.2868076805456514, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.2813920736306121, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.0, 0.41588412507835687, 0.8638935274408964, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7103144808570274, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.15774115931315388, 0.5123307444416587, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.973648733400507, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07670684254184146, 0.0, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720708187.313575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720708187.313575, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6998798138158959, 0.3001201861841041 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)" } ] }
