Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2900
{ "count": 5974, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2920", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2880", "results": [ { "id": 20533, "title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?", "short_title": "Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2025?", "url_title": "Crimea-Russia Land Bridge Severed by 2025?", "slug": "crimea-russia-land-bridge-severed-by-2025", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [ { "id": 103634, "username": "AngraMainyu" }, { "id": 126626, "username": "skmmcj" }, { "id": 126423, "username": "Eikonal" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-11T18:41:21.486937Z", "published_at": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.732008Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "comment_count": 126, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:32:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 224, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15873, "name": "Ukraine Conflict", "slug": "ukraine-conflict", "emoji": "🇺🇦⚔️", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20533, "title": "Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-11T18:41:21.486937Z", "open_time": "2023-12-13T16:23:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-16T16:23:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-16T16:23:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-12-31T22:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-17T17:32:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-17T17:33:07.957021Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T21:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148) [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259) [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.\n\nThe Ukrainian offensive [began in June 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/), but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are [significant doubts about its chances](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) [of](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-ukraine-war-strategy.html) [success](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/07/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-drones-stalemate/). Even so, [Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-imminent-f-16s-arrival-only-part-of-broader-defense-talks-mod-reveals/ar-AA1ldR3c), and [Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-counteroffensive-results-ap-interview/), [despite](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302) political difficulties for providing military aid.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the [Institute for the Study of War](https://www.understandingwar.org/) or other reliable sources report Ukraine has severed the land bridge from Crimea to Russia at some point between November 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025, 00:00 [EET](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eastern_European_Time).\n\nFor the purposes of this question, severing the land bridge is defined as extending the overall zone of Ukrainian territorial control continuously from Kyiv to some point on the southeastern coastline from Henichesk in the southwest along the Azov sea northeast to the Russian border. Control means physical occupation; indirect control by artillery or other fires, by destroying infrastructure, etc does not suffice", "fine_print": "If there is a negotiated settlement such that Russia withdraws and Ukraine regains control over the land bridge, the question resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 20533, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735654835.816833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735654835.816833, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 222, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.04286205600922922 ], "histogram": [ [ 20.661474487108848, 3.9684486569293016, 0.5965335875869504, 0.01723465738260073, 0.1920819576865273, 0.027927588363359554, 0.2571774072527673, 5.7217417280881e-06, 0.2252789893384921, 0.0, 0.04766772412040164, 0.01610438486613727, 0.13963256273458682, 0.012881662101301894, 0.0, 0.02024870524987836, 0.0, 0.35230501271317916, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13625662226715304, 0.0, 0.005216056278854086, 0.16922461377009015, 0.0, 0.002001132295510785, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9115165644187e-06, 0.0, 3.682812766856257e-05, 0.2268975781830094, 0.0, 0.05744047312776203, 0.0, 5.5415849550497595e-05, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19531038569927134, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.001637830053275861, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21858588714729899, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 9.192897961257359e-07, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01859731980109266, 0.042752641275718144, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05980784423338987, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22600671075770956, 0.0, 0.05279157408911684, 0.0, 0.0, 0.010011365466038872, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2937958635214849, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05069363599025902 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.35676606184298, "peer_score": 20.462732027662323, "coverage": 0.9996966315927615, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9996966315927615, "spot_peer_score": -7.020053750397897, "spot_baseline_score": 58.496250072115615, "baseline_archived_score": 97.35676606184298, "peer_archived_score": 20.462732027662323, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -7.020053750397897, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 58.496250072115615 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289117.827916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 211, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289117.827916, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 211, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9926373087875252, 0.007362691212474843 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 19, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 512, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In late February and March 2014, following the Euromaidan uprising and removal of pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, thinly disguised Russian military and paramilitary forces seized control of the Crimean peninsula in the far South of Ukraine and of most of the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk in its East, leading to a protracted conflict.\n\nIn February 2022, Russia launched its full-scale conventional invasion of Ukraine. One of its first objectives was to seize the band of territory in Ukraine's southeast, between the Azov Sea and the Dnipro river, which connects Crimea in the south and Donetsk and Luhansk in the East.\n\nThrough the Spring and Summer of 2022, Ukraine achieved a series of counteroffensive victories and expelled Russian forces from a large area of the country. In September, Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in his [programmatic article](https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-ato/3566162-ak-zabezpeciti-voennu-kampaniu-u-2023-roci-ukrainskij-poglad.html) on Ukraine’s coming campaign of 2023, called Crimea the \"*center of gravity of the enemy*\" and advised planning operations to seize it. Removing the Russian protective belt around the peninsula would be the first step towards achieving this goal. If executed simultaneously with destroying the Crimean bridge near Kerch it would cut off Crimea from supplies by land. Already in August, Arestovych, an advisor to president Zelensky, had [floated the idea]( https://www.unian.net/war/arestovich-schitaet-uspeh-v-melitopole-strategicheski-vazhnym-dlya-vsu-novosti-vtorzheniya-rossii-na-ukrainu-11935857.html) of an offensive on Melitopol, a key transportation hub on the land bridge, and opined that its success would collapse the entire Russian frontline. \n\nIn November 2022, with their supply lines in serious danger from Ukrainian artillery, the Russian occupiers fled Kherson for the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro, leaving the southeastern land bridge as the obvious next objective. Several Russian military bloggers predicted a land bridge offensive, with variations in timing, possible tactics and the exact direction of attack, e.g. [Dimitriev](https://t.me/russ_orientalist/12458), [MIG]( https://t.me/mig41/22148) [Moscow Calling]( https://t.me/m0sc0wcalling/14259) [Nesmiyan]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947) and [Saponkov]( https://t.me/RSaponkov/3947).\n\nOn the Ukrainian side, the [New York Times cited](https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/12/world/europe/ukraine-war-strategy-russia.html) \"*hints from the troops on the ground and volunteers close to them*\" that preparations for such an offensive were in the works. Russian forces were said to be aware of the danger and [to have been reinforcing their units and fortifying their lines]( https://ria.ru/20221019/svo-1825016250.html) in the Southeast for some time.\n\nThere is some flexibility with the direction of the offensive. Ukraine can strike in the east, towards Mariupol, in the center, towards Berdyansk or Melitopol (the most discussed option), or even in the west, from the newly captured Kherson towards Henichesk. Cutting the land bridge in two could be a first step to reoccupying it entirely, leaving Russia with no more territory than it started with, and potentially bringing the war closer to its termination.\n\nThe Ukrainian offensive [began in June 2022](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/06/08/russia-ukraine-war-news-counteroffensive/), but as of December 2023, it does not appear close to severing the land bridge, and in fact there are [significant doubts about its chances](https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/) [of](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/11/us/politics/us-ukraine-war-strategy.html) [success](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/12/07/ukraine-counteroffensive-russia-war-drones-stalemate/). Even so, [Ukraine will still get F-16s and other weapon systems](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ukraines-imminent-f-16s-arrival-only-part-of-broader-defense-talks-mod-reveals/ar-AA1ldR3c), and [Zelenzky appears determined to keep fighting](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/ukraine-russia-war-zelenskyy-counteroffensive-results-ap-interview/), [despite](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67636302) political difficulties for providing military aid." }, { "id": 20522, "title": "If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?", "short_title": "AI Model Reporting in US at End of 2025?", "url_title": "AI Model Reporting in US at End of 2025?", "slug": "ai-model-reporting-in-us-at-end-of-2025", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-11T15:58:44.505642Z", "published_at": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-21T22:47:50.572928Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 77, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32590, "name": "2021-2025 Leaderboard", "slug": "2021_2025_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:34:07.087134Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, { "id": 2329, "type": "question_series", "name": "Regulation of AI", "slug": "ai-policy", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai_policy.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "close_date": "2023-08-09T13:41:59.374000Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T05:14:52.818407Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2677, "type": "question_series", "name": "Effective Institutions Project", "slug": "eip", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/eip.jpg", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-10T19:14:19Z", "close_date": "2030-01-01T20:14:19Z", "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:34:07.087134Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20522, "title": "If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-11T15:58:44.505642Z", "open_time": "2023-12-11T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-14T22:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-14T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2026-01-01T14:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-12-31T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nOn October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The order seeks to [set guardrails](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059) on AI development and includes a number of requirements for monitoring existing uses of AI and addressing risks involved in future AI developments.\n\nIn particular, the order sets reporting requirements for training large AI models that meet the definition in Section 3(k):\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities. \n\nThe order requires that any companies developing, training, or planning to train such a model must report their intent to the government and provide information regarding security measures, ownership of model weights, and results of red-teaming tests. Specifically, in Section 4.2(a):\n\n> 4.2. Ensuring Safe and Reliable AI. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act, as amended, 50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq., including for the national defense and the protection of critical infrastructure, the Secretary of Commerce shall require:\n>\n>(i) Companies developing or demonstrating an intent to develop potential dual-use foundation models to provide the Federal Government, on an ongoing basis, with information, reports, or records regarding the following:\n>\n>(A) any ongoing or planned activities related to training, developing, or producing dual-use foundation models, including the physical and cybersecurity protections taken to assure the integrity of that training process against sophisticated threats;\n>\n>(B) the ownership and possession of the model weights of any dual-use foundation models, and the physical and cybersecurity measures taken to protect those model weights; and\n>\n>(C) the results of any developed dual-use foundation model’s performance in relevant AI red-team testing based on guidance developed by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, and a description of any associated measures the company has taken to meet safety objectives, such as mitigations to improve performance on these red-team tests and strengthen overall model security. Prior to the development of guidance on red-team testing standards by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, this description shall include the results of any red-team testing that the company has conducted relating to lowering the barrier to entry for the development, acquisition, and use of biological weapons by non-state actors; the discovery of software vulnerabilities and development of associated exploits; the use of software or tools to influence real or virtual events; the possibility for self-replication or propagation; and associated measures to meet safety objectives; and\n>\n>(ii) Companies, individuals, or other organizations or entities that acquire, develop, or possess a potential large-scale computing cluster to report any such acquisition, development, or possession, including the existence and location of these clusters and the amount of total computing power available in each cluster.\n\nSection 4.2(b) also sets forth a compute threshold for which the reporting in 4.2(a) is required:\n\n>(b) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Energy, and the Director of National Intelligence, shall define, and thereafter update as needed on a regular basis, the set of technical conditions for models and computing clusters that would be subject to the reporting requirements of subsection 4.2(a) of this section. Until such technical conditions are defined, the Secretary shall require compliance with these reporting requirements for:\n>\n>(i) any model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations, or using primarily biological sequence data and using a quantity of computing power greater than 1023 integer or floating-point operations; and\n>\n>(ii) any computing cluster that has a set of machines physically co-located in a single datacenter, transitively connected by data center networking of over 100 Gbit/s, and having a theoretical maximum computing capacity of 1020 integer or floating-point operations per second for training AI.\n\nWhile campaigning on December 2, 2023, Donald Trump [reportedly said](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-vows-cancel-biden-executive-order):\n\n>When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected president in 2024 **and**, on December 31, 2025, regulation is in place in the United States that satisfies the following:\n\n* All companies developing, training, or planning to train a dual-use foundation model with more than \\(10^{26}\\) integer or floating-point operations must provide the US federal government with all of the following information:\n * Notification of activities and plans related to dual-use foundation models, including security protections taken to safeguard the training process against threats.\n * Information on the ownership of model weights and security protections taken to protect model weights.\n * For developed models, the results of red-teaming activities.", "fine_print": "* If Donald Trump is not elected to be president in 2024 this question will be **annulled**. To count, Trump must actually take office.\n* The regulation need not be the same as Executive Order 14110, and that executive order need not be in place, so long as the requirements specified in the resolution criteria are met or exceeded.\n* If there is any ambiguity regarding the definition of a dual-use foundation model, any model broadly satisfying the following definition from Executive Order 14110 will count, as determined by Metaculus:\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities.", "post_id": 20522, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757911406.761954, "end_time": 1759788477.401398, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757911406.761954, "end_time": 1759788477.401398, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.1 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.14 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.9, 0.1 ], "means": [ 0.138995125342993 ], "histogram": [ [ 1.9427852392835065, 1.2030350119290543, 0.8153249963609456, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0469947500914878, 0.0, 0.9817216557055979, 0.15917957049677586, 0.6841652356874048, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289367.852948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289367.852948, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 35, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8403168562788484, 0.15968314372115158 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 204, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "*This question was written in partnership with the [Effective Institutions Project](https://effectiveinstitutionsproject.org/).*\n\nOn October 30, 2023, the Biden administration issued [Executive Order 14110](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) “on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence“. The order seeks to [set guardrails](https://apnews.com/article/biden-ai-artificial-intelligence-executive-order-cb86162000d894f238f28ac029005059) on AI development and includes a number of requirements for monitoring existing uses of AI and addressing risks involved in future AI developments.\n\nIn particular, the order sets reporting requirements for training large AI models that meet the definition in Section 3(k):\n\n>(k) The term “dual-use foundation model” means an AI model that is trained on broad data; generally uses self-supervision; contains at least tens of billions of parameters; is applicable across a wide range of contexts; and that exhibits, or could be easily modified to exhibit, high levels of performance at tasks that pose a serious risk to security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination of those matters, such as by:\n>\n>(i) substantially lowering the barrier of entry for non-experts to design, synthesize, acquire, or use chemical, biological, radiological, or nuclear (CBRN) weapons;\n>\n>(ii) enabling powerful offensive cyber operations through automated vulnerability discovery and exploitation against a wide range of potential targets of cyber attacks; or\n>\n>(iii) permitting the evasion of human control or oversight through means of deception or obfuscation.\n>\n>Models meet this definition even if they are provided to end users with technical safeguards that attempt to prevent users from taking advantage of the relevant unsafe capabilities. \n\nThe order requires that any companies developing, training, or planning to train such a model must report their intent to the government and provide information regarding security measures, ownership of model weights, and results of red-teaming tests. Specifically, in Section 4.2(a):\n\n> 4.2. Ensuring Safe and Reliable AI. (a) Within 90 days of the date of this order, to ensure and verify the continuous availability of safe, reliable, and effective AI in accordance with the Defense Production Act, as amended, 50 U.S.C. 4501 et seq., including for the national defense and the protection of critical infrastructure, the Secretary of Commerce shall require:\n>\n>(i) Companies developing or demonstrating an intent to develop potential dual-use foundation models to provide the Federal Government, on an ongoing basis, with information, reports, or records regarding the following:\n>\n>(A) any ongoing or planned activities related to training, developing, or producing dual-use foundation models, including the physical and cybersecurity protections taken to assure the integrity of that training process against sophisticated threats;\n>\n>(B) the ownership and possession of the model weights of any dual-use foundation models, and the physical and cybersecurity measures taken to protect those model weights; and\n>\n>(C) the results of any developed dual-use foundation model’s performance in relevant AI red-team testing based on guidance developed by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, and a description of any associated measures the company has taken to meet safety objectives, such as mitigations to improve performance on these red-team tests and strengthen overall model security. Prior to the development of guidance on red-team testing standards by NIST pursuant to subsection 4.1(a)(ii) of this section, this description shall include the results of any red-team testing that the company has conducted relating to lowering the barrier to entry for the development, acquisition, and use of biological weapons by non-state actors; the discovery of software vulnerabilities and development of associated exploits; the use of software or tools to influence real or virtual events; the possibility for self-replication or propagation; and associated measures to meet safety objectives; and\n>\n>(ii) Companies, individuals, or other organizations or entities that acquire, develop, or possess a potential large-scale computing cluster to report any such acquisition, development, or possession, including the existence and location of these clusters and the amount of total computing power available in each cluster.\n\nSection 4.2(b) also sets forth a compute threshold for which the reporting in 4.2(a) is required:\n\n>(b) The Secretary of Commerce, in consultation with the Secretary of State, the Secretary of Defense, the Secretary of Energy, and the Director of National Intelligence, shall define, and thereafter update as needed on a regular basis, the set of technical conditions for models and computing clusters that would be subject to the reporting requirements of subsection 4.2(a) of this section. Until such technical conditions are defined, the Secretary shall require compliance with these reporting requirements for:\n>\n>(i) any model that was trained using a quantity of computing power greater than 1026 integer or floating-point operations, or using primarily biological sequence data and using a quantity of computing power greater than 1023 integer or floating-point operations; and\n>\n>(ii) any computing cluster that has a set of machines physically co-located in a single datacenter, transitively connected by data center networking of over 100 Gbit/s, and having a theoretical maximum computing capacity of 1020 integer or floating-point operations per second for training AI.\n\nWhile campaigning on December 2, 2023, Donald Trump [reportedly said](https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/campaigns/trump-vows-cancel-biden-executive-order):\n\n>When I'm reelected, I will cancel Biden's artificial intelligence executive order and ban the use of AI to censor the speech of American citizens on day one." }, { "id": 20468, "title": "Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?", "short_title": "Sam Altman leaves OpenAI (again) before 2025", "url_title": "Sam Altman leaves OpenAI (again) before 2025", "slug": "sam-altman-leaves-openai-again-before-2025", "author_id": 107659, "author_username": "deKlik", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-08T22:55:41.533231Z", "published_at": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:22.739920Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "comment_count": 7, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:08:00Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 50, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20468, "title": "Will Sam Altman leave OpenAI (again) before 2025?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T22:55:41.533231Z", "open_time": "2024-02-03T21:31:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-02-06T21:31:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-02-06T21:31:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-14T08:08:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-14T08:08:19.500553Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T12:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Sam Altman is back as a CEO in Open AI, but there is a new board, investigation and many open questions about his behavior. \n\n1. Washington Post: [OpenAI leaders warned of abusive behavior before Sam Altman’s ouster](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/08/open-ai-sam-altman-complaints/)\n2. New York Times: [Inside OpenAI’s Crisis Over the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/technology/openai-altman-inside-crisis.html)", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves Yes if credible sources report Sam Altman has left OpenAI after February 2, 2024 and before Jan 1, 2025.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20468, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735344101.215287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735344101.215287, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.002 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.016281712325856193 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.484303728527587, 1.2085586203114635, 0.25114163834068226, 0.5535172680719667, 0.0, 0.08718333208629545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23434107129204243, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07658881074466624, 0.0, 0.02700918083308739, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16054456415221713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28045304072399985, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 97.11297267590155, "peer_score": 2.922017477287903, "coverage": 0.9999942358606179, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999942358606179, "spot_peer_score": 12.531930090959222, "spot_baseline_score": 98.5500430304885, "baseline_archived_score": 97.11297267590155, "peer_archived_score": 2.922017477287903, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 12.531930090959222, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 98.5500430304885 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728290016.361153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728290016.361153, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9994645723772371, 0.0005354276227628783 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 100, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Sam Altman is back as a CEO in Open AI, but there is a new board, investigation and many open questions about his behavior. \n\n1. Washington Post: [OpenAI leaders warned of abusive behavior before Sam Altman’s ouster](https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/12/08/open-ai-sam-altman-complaints/)\n2. New York Times: [Inside OpenAI’s Crisis Over the Future of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/12/09/technology/openai-altman-inside-crisis.html)" }, { "id": 20467, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?", "short_title": "Chinese Model US Cloud Compute", "url_title": "Chinese Model US Cloud Compute", "slug": "chinese-model-us-cloud-compute", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T16:01:53.206903Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.240232Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 2, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T17:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:08.932036Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:08.932036Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:09.020170Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20467, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2025, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using US cloud compute?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T16:01:53.206903Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2025-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-23T17:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-23T17:26:05.916329Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Presently, there is nothing to stop Chinese AI developers from carrying out training runs using US [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), on account of an [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/) loophole: While Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, and the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.\n\nChinese AI developers have not yet made use of this loophole to carry out a frontier AI model training run. However, as they become increasingly hamstrung by physical export controls, the loophole might present an increasingly attractive path forward.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2025, any [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) is trained using [cloud compute / infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS) provided by a US firm](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20880/us-restricts-chinese-iaas-access-by-2025/).\n\nIf there is no frontier Chinese AI model before 2025, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there are one or more frontier Chinese AI models before 2025, but none are trained using US IaaS, then this question resolves as **No**.\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there, counts as being part of China.\n\n------\n\nWhether a Chinese firm has developed a “frontier” model is defined as in the “[Will there be a frontier Chinese AI model before 2027?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/)” question. In other words, frontier means either i) trained with an amount of compute that's within one order of magnitude of that of the leading AI model in the world at the time, or ii) top 10 in the world, according to [Chatbot Arena Leaderboard's](https://huggingface.co/spaces/lmsys/chatbot-arena-leaderboard) Areno ELO rating.\n\nFor i, we will use Epoch AI's \"[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)\" database as the resolution source.", "fine_print": "On the question of, “How will we know that the training compute comes from US IaaS?,” we will turn to credible report(s) and/or Epoch AI's “[Parameters, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database.\n\n- The evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2025. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2024, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2025, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n\n- If there's a top Chinese model before 2025 for which there is good reason to suspect that the compute used in the training run comes from US IaaS, but for which there is no credible report available, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will do their best to find other sources to help decide if Yes resolution has been triggered. If they cannot decide, then they may rule that the question be Annulled.\n\n------\n\nIn case the Epoch AI database or the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard are discontinued, Metaculus admins will do their best to find alternative resolution sources. If this is not possible, then the question may be Annulled.", "post_id": 20467, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1735688336.959811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.273 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1735688336.959811, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.273 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.17851330453591147 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7727395242812621, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 1.3728175091303285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7337519574005285, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.3678794411714424, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.6532944793895881, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.21526221595892353, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 40.43603477891003, "peer_score": 1.760107398124639, "coverage": 0.9994223566274231, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9994223566274231, "spot_peer_score": -4.1822319886194474, "spot_baseline_score": -5.889368905356857, "baseline_archived_score": 40.43603477891003, "peer_archived_score": 1.760107398124639, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": -4.1822319886194474, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -5.889368905356857 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289075.951189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289075.951189, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 20, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8788956403058024, 0.12110435969419767 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 51, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Presently, there is nothing to stop Chinese AI developers from carrying out training runs using US [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing)/infrastructure-as-a-service (IaaS), on account of an [export](https://www.bis.doc.gov/index.php/documents/about-bis/newsroom/press-releases/3158-2022-10-07-bis-press-release-advanced-computing-and-semiconductor-manufacturing-controls-final/file) [controls](https://time.com/6324619/us-biden-ai-chips-china/) loophole: While Chinese AI developers are restricted from physically buying many types of cutting edge AI chips, and the machines used to manufacture them, they are not currently restricted from buying [cloud compute](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing) provided by US IaaS firms who possess the exact same chips that are physically export controlled.\n\nChinese AI developers have not yet made use of this loophole to carry out a frontier AI model training run. However, as they become increasingly hamstrung by physical export controls, the loophole might present an increasingly attractive path forward." }, { "id": 20466, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?", "short_title": "Chinese Model Chinese Chips", "url_title": "Chinese Model Chinese Chips", "slug": "chinese-model-chinese-chips", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:02:45.233365Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-20T16:48:28.424841Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 1, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 41, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:08.932036Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:08.932036Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:09.020170Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20466, "title": "If at least one frontier AI model has been trained by a Chinese firm before 2027, will a Chinese frontier AI model have been trained using primarily Chinese AI chips?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T15:02:45.233365Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if, before January 1, 2027, a [frontier Chinese AI model](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20879/frontier-chinese-ai-model-by-2027/) has more than 50% of its training compute provided by AI chips that were both designed and fabricated by Chinese firms.\n\nIf there is no frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, then this question will be **Annulled**. If there is at least one frontier Chinese AI model by 2027, but none of these models have more than 50% of their training compute provided by chips designed and fabricated by Chinese firms, then the question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "On the question of, “How will we know that the chips were designed and fabricated by Chinese firms?,” we will turn to credible report(s) and/or Epoch AI's “[Parameter, Compute and Data Trends in Machine Learning](https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AAIebjNsnJj_uKALHbXNfn3_YsT6sHXtCU0q7OIPuc4/edit#gid=177804471)” database.\n\n- One example of the type of article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n\n- The admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n\n- If it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because given the amount of compute estimated to have been used in the training, and given the number of chips reported to be possessed by the Chinese lab (and therefore the compute they possess that comes from Chinese chips), it's unclear whether or not the 50% threshold is reached, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n\n- The evidence that such a model has been developed—either in the Epoch database or on the Chatbot Arena leaderboard—must be available before January 1, 2027. For example, if a Chinese model that turns out to be frontier is launched in December 2026, but doesn't appear in the Epoch database or on the Arena leaderboard until January 2027, then it does not count for Yes resolution.\n\n- If there's a top Chinese model before 2027 for which there is good reason to suspect that a substantial fraction of the chips used in the training run were Chinese-designed and fabricated, but for which there is no credible report available, then a panel of at least three Metaculus admins will do their best to find other sources to help decide if Yes resolution has been triggered. If they cannot decide, then they may rule that the question be Annulled.\n\n------\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there and the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.", "post_id": 20466, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758386897.989618, "end_time": 1759145593.550398, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758386897.989618, "end_time": 1759145593.550398, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.78 ], "centers": [ 0.8 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.19999999999999996, 0.8 ], "means": [ 0.8194260308366446 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0697448631166007, 0.19636283239907462, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6525656508175627, 1.2618660048335912, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.25478086013860485, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5827013185393793, 0.7346300790096757, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.0, 1.126076094664762 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287335.544922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287335.544922, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6049661619476796, 0.3950338380523204 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 3, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 94, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese labs start using their chips in frontier model training runs, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/)." }, { "id": 20461, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?", "short_title": "Large Chinese Order of US AI Chips", "url_title": "Large Chinese Order of US AI Chips", "slug": "large-chinese-order-of-us-ai-chips", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T14:10:53.583095Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.704740Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "open_time": 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false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20461, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of U.S. or U.S.-allied AI chips before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T14:10:53.583095Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-11-25T09:37:56.655525Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-23T04:01:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer fails to become competitive enough at the high end for Chinese firms to start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has failed to hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI will continue to be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 U.S.- or U.S.-allied-designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "One example of a past article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n\nThe admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n\nThe report can refer to multiple orders, but they must occur within a one-year timespan. For example, a report that says something like \"Chinese firm X has ordered 20,000 chips this year,\" and which references several different orders, counts for Yes resolution. Additionally, multiple reports can be added up to trigger Yes resolution. For example, if there's a report in September 2025 that Chinese firm X has ordered 10,000 U.S.-fabricated chips, and then a report in August 2026 saying that this same firm that has ordered a further 10,000 chips, then this counts for Yes resolution. However, the different reports to be added up must occur within a one-year timespan.\n\nIf it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because it says something like, “Baidu has ordered between 15,000 and 25,000 chips,” then a panel of at least 3 Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n\nU.S.-allied means [NATO members](https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/united-states-allies) plus [non-NATO allies](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_non-NATO_ally#List_of_MNNAs).\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.", "post_id": 20461, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1732510075.2763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2205635309 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1732510075.2763, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2205635309 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4975018573009445 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.2708582093916846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.32144168497052106, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.26077713707599026, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.761419003562789, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.22042859672213486, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.35834256537117526, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3554532826593566 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": -11.330470453925617, "peer_score": 4.001337235795635, "coverage": 0.12201078388534901, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9999604082938737, "spot_peer_score": 8.870786200684229, "baseline_archived_score": -11.330470453925617, "peer_archived_score": 4.001337235795635, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 8.870786200684229 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728286893.014562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728286893.014562, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2150657632198344, 0.7849342367801656 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 31, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer fails to become competitive enough at the high end for Chinese firms to start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has failed to hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI will continue to be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips." }, { "id": 20460, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?", "short_title": "Large Domestic Order Chinese AI Chips", "url_title": "Large Domestic Order Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "large-domestic-order-chinese-ai-chips", "author_id": 119005, "author_username": "will_aldred", "coauthors": [ { "id": 142588, "username": "fist" } ], "created_at": "2023-12-08T12:46:42.430224Z", "published_at": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "edited_at": 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2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:08.932036Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2784, "type": "tournament", "name": "Chinese AI Chips", "slug": "chinese-ai-chips", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/cac-new_1.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-12-06T12:00:33Z", "close_date": "2033-01-02T23:59:33Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2033-01-01T11:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-28T16:30:32.190353Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:08.932036Z", "score_type": "peer_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3701, "name": "Technology", "slug": "technology", "emoji": "⚙️", "description": "Technology", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" } ], "question_series": [ { "id": 2343, "type": "question_series", "name": "AI in China", "slug": "ai-in-china", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/ai-china.png", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": true, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-22T00:55:09.020170Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20460, "title": "Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?", "created_at": "2023-12-08T12:46:42.430224Z", "open_time": "2024-01-11T18:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-14T18:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2027-01-01T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2026-12-31T23:59:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese firms start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if a Chinese-headquartered firm orders >20,000 domestically designed and fabricated AI chips before January 1, 2027, based on a credible report. It resolves as **No** otherwise.", "fine_print": "One example of a past article on this topic that would count as a credible report: [Reuters (2023)](https://www.reuters.com/technology/baidu-placed-ai-chip-order-huawei-shift-away-nvidia-sources-2023-11-07/#:~:text=Baidu%20ordered%201%2C600%20of%20Huawei,about%201%2C000%20chips%2C%20to%20Baidu.) who reported Baidu ordering 1,600 of Huawei's 910B Ascend AI chips.\n\nThe admins may wait for additional confirmation from credible sources before resolving if the credibility of the initial report is in doubt.\n\nThe report can refer to multiple orders, but they must occur within a one-year timespan. For example, a report that says something like \"Chinese firm X has ordered 20,000 chips this year,\" and which references several different orders, counts for Yes resolution. Additionally, multiple reports can be added up to trigger Yes resolution. For example, if there's a report in September 2025 that Chinese firm X has ordered 10,000 domestically-produced chips, and then a report in August 2026 saying that this same firm that has ordered a further 10,000 chips, then this counts for Yes resolution. However, the different reports to be added up must occur within a one-year timespan.\n\nIf it's ambiguous whether a report counts, for example, because it says something like, “Baidu has ordered between 15,000 and 25,000 chips,” then a panel of at least 3 Metaculus admins will make a ruling based on the specifics of the case.\n\nSituations where a >20,000 domestic order of chips happens on account of stolen designs, or designs being bought from non-Chinese design firms, are included (i.e., can trigger Yes resolution). In other words, it counts as domestically designed if the design is attributed to a Chinese firm or marketed by a Chinese firm, even if there are reports that the design was stolen, or in cases where the Chinese firm purchased the rights to redistribute a foreign design. (Note to forecasters: This might seem to contradict the “domestically designed” spirit of the question. The reason bought or stolen designs are included is that the AI policy decision-maker who commissioned this question is interested in whether or not what China is likely to do can be influenced through U.S. export controls. China stealing designs cannot be influenced through export controls. And China buying designs (from non-U.S. countries, the most likely candidate being Taiwan) likewise cannot be easily influenced through export controls.)\n\nA “Chinese firm” is a firm headquartered in China. “China” includes mainland China, Hong Kong, and Macao (but not Taiwan). If the PRC annexes Taiwan, then annexed-Taiwan, including the firms located there and the chips being produced there, counts as being part of China.", "post_id": 20460, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757963749.608709, "end_time": 1759145591.399817, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757963749.608709, "end_time": 1759145591.399817, "forecaster_count": 22, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.998 ], "centers": [ 0.999 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0010000000000000009, 0.999 ], "means": [ 0.9918676494890507 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18444282413373944, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06273305504766838, 0.5452146547821934, 0.0, 0.3872215097627376, 6.721546454975829 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287605.424132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287605.424132, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.06513532555641377, 0.9348646744435862 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 120, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Chinese government is committed to building a strong domestic AI chip supply chain: they have made this a national priority and invested many billions of dollars. However, this is an ambitious target and, to date, Chinese firms that use AI chips have continued to buy these chips from [incumbents](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/21/technology/nvidia-ai-chips-gpu.html) [like Nvidia](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/10/nvidia-will-reportedly-sell-new-chips-to-china-that-still-meet-us-rules.html#:~:text=In%20the%20near%20term%2C%20Chinese,chips%2C%20while%20searching%20for%20replacements.&text=Companies%20in%20China%20had%20then,last%20month%20with%20new%20restrictions.), and not from Chinese companies.\n\nIf a Chinese chip designer-manufacturer becomes competitive enough at the high end that Chinese firms start buying their chips in bulk, then this will be a strong signal that the Chinese government has hit its target, and that Chinese efforts to build frontier AI can no longer be hamstrung by [export](https://www.csis.org/analysis/choking-chinas-access-future-ai) [controls](https://www.reuters.com/technology/upcoming-us-rules-ai-chip-exports-aim-stop-workarounds-us-official-2023-10-15/).\n\nCurrently, the leading AI labs in China are housed at the big tech companies: Baidu, Alibaba, Tencent, and Xiaomi. Meanwhile, [it's believed](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/aoBxSba4CsEAtHqRy/largest-ai-model-in-2-years-from-usd10b#Is_100_000_chips_a_lot_:~:text=It%E2%80%99s%20estimated%20that%20the%20largest%20final%20training%20run%20as%20of%20now%20(GPT4)%20was%20about%20%2450M%20based%20on%C2%A0calculations%20from%20epoch%20using%2010%2C000%2D25%2C000%20A100%20GPUs%20for%202%2D6%20months.) that the largest AI model training run to date, that of OpenAI's GPT-4, used between 10 and 25 thousand chips." }, { "id": 20406, "title": "Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?", "short_title": "Trump in power beyond 2028?", "url_title": "Trump in power beyond 2028?", "slug": "trump-in-power-beyond-2028", "author_id": 160799, "author_username": "metaweta", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-06T15:54:26.722236Z", "published_at": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-13T01:23:01.748175Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "comment_count": 75, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-31T19:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 168, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20406, "title": "Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?", "created_at": "2023-12-06T15:54:26.722236Z", "open_time": "2023-12-18T22:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-20T00:14:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-20T00:14:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-01T19:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-01-31T19:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-01-31T19:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "### Scope\n\nThis is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called \"President\".\n\n### Background\n\nRobert Kagan [recently wrote an article](https://web.archive.org/web/20231201202312/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/) noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie \"[Civil War](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w)\", featuring a three-term US President.\n\nTrump has said that if elected, he'll be [a dictator \"only on day one\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall) in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling.\n\n[In 2020, he said](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/donald-trump-third-term-2024/index.html), \"We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we’ll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years.\"\n\nHowever, more recently, [Trump responded to DeSantis' statement](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208782-trump-rules-out-seeking-a-third-white-house-term-if-he-wins-reelection/) that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: \"When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don’t want that person.\" One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities.\n\nThe [22nd Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/) prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The [12th Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-12/) says, \"no person constitutionally ineligible to\nthe office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.\" One might think that a twice-elected president would be \"ineligible\" for the role of Vice President, but because \"eligibility\" refers to [Article II, Section 1, Clause 5](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/#II_S1_C5), which specifically address whether a person is\n\"eligible to the Office of the President,\" [it has been argued](https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_artchop/1012/) that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies.", "resolution_criteria": "The question resolves **Yes** if Donald Trump is elected President of the United States in the 2024 Presidential Election, and is still exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029.\n\nThe question resolves **No** if Trump does not win the 2024 election, or if Trump is not exercising supreme executive power in the United States on January 21, 2029.\n\nThe term \"supreme executive power,\" for the purposes of this question, is defined as any US government office with powers equivalent to or superseding the presidency, including the presidency itself.", "fine_print": "If Trump refuses to abdicate the presidency following the 2028 election, then the question resolves based on who holds *de facto* power over the US military on January 21, 2029, in the opinion of credible reports. If command of the military on that date is disputed, the question resolves Yes.", "post_id": 20406, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758399930.539437, "end_time": 1759007852.365314, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758399930.539437, "end_time": 1759007852.365314, "forecaster_count": 104, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.01 ], "centers": [ 0.03 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.09 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.97, 0.03 ], "means": [ 0.08092947013016623 ], "histogram": [ [ 3.7842008205158364, 1.9482689110474785, 2.386366549049775, 2.680369333842977, 1.4801495512714005, 0.7599439096545173, 0.16197380333633635, 0.4186751432977572, 0.25505446692245143, 0.3758765289802037, 1.2981180166660846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2854520133482675, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.467473142403457, 0.0, 0.7444350383777101, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.003641122257945275, 0.0, 0.0, 0.040842215977261474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07077817475951166, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05044172969936455, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1803677146098847, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3967612630535391, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11102065352498955 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289391.276714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289391.276714, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 105, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.997831952313174, 0.0021680476868260416 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 23, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 421, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "### Scope\n\nThis is the question of whether Trump will hold supreme executive power in the United States rather than a specific political office. At the moment, the President is granted that power by the constitution. However, Caesar and Napoleon both created the role of Emperor for themselves, and Hitler created the role of Führer. If such a role were to be created in the United States, its occupant would have supreme executive power even if the position was not called \"President\".\n\n### Background\n\nRobert Kagan [recently wrote an article](https://web.archive.org/web/20231201202312/https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/11/30/trump-dictator-2024-election-robert-kagan/) noting similarities to pre-WWII Germany in popular sentiment and political speech, worrying that Trump would become a dictator. In April, the movie studio A24 is releasing the movie \"[Civil War](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aDyQxtg0V2w)\", featuring a three-term US President.\n\nTrump has said that if elected, he'll be [a dictator \"only on day one\"](https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2023/dec/06/donald-trump-sean-hannity-dictator-day-one-response-iowa-town-hall) in order to close the southern border and expand oil drilling.\n\n[In 2020, he said](https://www.cnn.com/2020/08/18/politics/donald-trump-third-term-2024/index.html), \"We are going to win four more years, and then after that, we’ll go for another four years because they spied on my campaign. We should get a redo of four years.\"\n\nHowever, more recently, [Trump responded to DeSantis' statement](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4208782-trump-rules-out-seeking-a-third-white-house-term-if-he-wins-reelection/) that people should vote for DeSantis because he's elegible for eight years in the White House, unlike Trump: \"When somebody says eight years, we need eight years, no. In six months to a year, many of the problems, almost all of the problems that you and I have just spoken about will be solved. Anybody that says they need eight years, you don’t want that person.\" One might read that as saying Trump wouldn't try to obtain a third term, but one also might read that as simply downplaying his opponent's abilities.\n\nThe [22nd Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-22/) prohibits people from being elected to the office of President more than twice. The [12th Amendment](https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-12/) says, \"no person constitutionally ineligible to\nthe office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.\" One might think that a twice-elected president would be \"ineligible\" for the role of Vice President, but because \"eligibility\" refers to [Article II, Section 1, Clause 5](https://constitution.congress.gov/browse/article-2/#II_S1_C5), which specifically address whether a person is\n\"eligible to the Office of the President,\" [it has been argued](https://digitalcommons.law.uga.edu/fac_artchop/1012/) that a twice-elected president could subsequently run as Vice President and then become President if the President steps down, is removed from power, or dies." }, { "id": 20383, "title": "Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?", "short_title": "GDL Strike Before 2024?", "url_title": "GDL Strike Before 2024?", "slug": "gdl-strike-before-2024", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-05T09:21:23.192254Z", "published_at": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:51.444010Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "comment_count": 3, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32591, "name": "2023 Leaderboard", "slug": "2023_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "category": [ { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 2654, "type": "tournament", "name": "🏆 Q4 2023 Quarterly Cup 🏆", "slug": "quarterly-cup-2023q4", "header_image": "https://metaculus-web-media.s3.amazonaws.com/quarterlycup.webp", "prize_pool": null, "start_date": "2023-10-03T15:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-01-04T12:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2024-01-05T15:54:55.645171Z", "score_type": "relative_legacy_tournament", "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } }, "question": { "id": 20383, "title": "Will the German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) go on strike again before January 1, 2024?", "created_at": "2023-12-05T09:21:23.192254Z", "open_time": "2023-12-06T16:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-09T04:42:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-09T04:42:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2023-12-31T23:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2023-12-07T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Union of German Train Drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gewerkschaft_Deutscher_Lokomotivf%C3%BChrer) (Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokomotivführer or GDL) represents workers in train companies in Germany. The GDL has been negotiating with the national rail company [Deutsche Bahn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Bahn), and [underwent a \"warning strike\"](https://www.dw.com/en/german-rail-union-warns-of-fresh-strikes-after-talks-fail/a-67542525) in November due to a perceived lack of progress.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 5, 2023, and before January 1, 2024, credible sources report that a German Train Drivers' Union (GDL) strike has begun.", "fine_print": "* An announcement that a strike will take place is not sufficient, the strike must actually begin.\n* Reports that the strike is underway are not strictly necessary. An announcement of a strike combined with an absence of reporting stating that the strike did **not** occur will be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.\n* There is no requirement on the length of time or the size of the strike, so long as it is a GDL strike according to credible reporting.\n* A \"warning strike\" will be sufficient to resolve as **Yes**.", "post_id": 20383, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701972665.190046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701972665.190046, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.9 ], "centers": [ 0.96 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.040000000000000036, 0.96 ], "means": [ 0.8800726635884021 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11123030328809189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5754832829804437, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13461295092244627, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.17692120631776415, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3459766825483706, 0.9363950450174452, 0.9074353916842878, 0.06414156534256711, 3.147072066986203 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.830837312893406, "coverage": 0.03937356902984349, "baseline_score": 1.8629249780609118, "spot_peer_score": 22.326460844816594, "peer_archived_score": 0.830837312893406, "baseline_archived_score": 1.8629249780609118, "spot_peer_archived_score": 22.326460844816594 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1701968017.413838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1701968017.413838, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.1166236888678267, 0.8833763111321733 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 48, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Union of German Train Drivers](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gewerkschaft_Deutscher_Lokomotivf%C3%BChrer) (Gewerkschaft Deutscher Lokomotivführer or GDL) represents workers in train companies in Germany. The GDL has been negotiating with the national rail company [Deutsche Bahn](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deutsche_Bahn), and [underwent a \"warning strike\"](https://www.dw.com/en/german-rail-union-warns-of-fresh-strikes-after-talks-fail/a-67542525) in November due to a perceived lack of progress." }, { "id": 20378, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?", "short_title": "Brazil response if Venezuela invades Guyana", "url_title": "Brazil response if Venezuela invades Guyana", "slug": "brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:08:06.035052Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.470511Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "comment_count": 9, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20378, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:08:06.035052Z", "open_time": "2023-12-12T17:59:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-15T17:59:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-15T17:59:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2030-01-03T17:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20377/us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that Brazil would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/) This is notable as Brazil has not fought any of its neighbors since the [Paraguayan War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War)\n\nThis question asks: will Brazil fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?", "resolution_criteria": "If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if Brazil responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time.\n\nBrazil will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the Brazilian government or Brazilian military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20378, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757200050.186369, "end_time": 1759799062.611102, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757200050.186369, "end_time": 1759799062.611102, "forecaster_count": 28, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.2 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.8, 0.2 ], "means": [ 0.259246797071436 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.08517259963641256, 0.2748574657272404, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028454418737632672, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6753507208774424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5482154774436659, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 2.555578736471272, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8592494049419773, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6091619622184999, 0.0, 0.35033622771640044, 0.0, 0.0, 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region.](https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-increases-northern-border-military-presence-amid-venezuela-guyana-spat-2023-11-29/) This is notable as Brazil has not fought any of its neighbors since the [Paraguayan War.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paraguayan_War)\n\nThis question asks: will Brazil fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?" }, { "id": 20377, "title": "If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will the United States respond with military forces?", "short_title": "US response if Venezuela invades Guyana 2030", "url_title": "US response if Venezuela invades Guyana 2030", "slug": "us-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana-2030", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T14:07:53.419157Z", "published_at": "2023-12-12T17:58:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-18T10:15:09.746978Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-12T17:58:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", 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"2030-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20378/brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that the United States would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/) [There is historical precedent for this.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America)\n\nThis question asks: will the United States fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?", "resolution_criteria": "If Venezuela does not launch a full-scale invasion of Guyana before January 1, 2030, then this question will resolve as Ambiguous. If Venezuela does invade Guyana, this question will resolve as Yes if the United States responds with military forces within 365 days from of the beginning of the Venezuelan invasion.\n\nIn line with our [main question](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/), Venezuela will be considered to have launched an invasion of Guyana if that question resolves positive at any time.\n\nThe United States will be considered to have responded with military forces if there is an offensive physical attack on Venezuelan infrastructure, ships, military personnel, or civilians, in direct retaliation to the full-scale invasion, and this attack is ordered by the American government or American military leadership. Cyberattacks will not be considered offensive physical attacks, but covert operations to e.g. assassinate Venezuelan nationals, will count", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 20377, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1758190499.345318, "end_time": 1760112877.68484, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1758190499.345318, "end_time": 1760112877.68484, "forecaster_count": 36, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "centers": [ 0.66 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.81 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.33999999999999997, 0.66 ], "means": [ 0.6900359500870311 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29864224648528603, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041937583413620604, 0.010195728329581903, 0.07919054371229513, 0.0, 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38, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4000065809958817, 0.5999934190041183 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 5, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 98, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "Related questions on Metaculus: \n\n[Will Venezuela invade Guyana before these dates?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20212/venezuela-to-invade-guyana/)\n[Will there be a civil war in Venezuela before 2050?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/15650/venezualan-civil-war/)\n[If Venezuela invades Guyana before 2030, will Brazil respond with military forces?](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/20378/brazil-response-if-venezuela-invades-guyana/)\n\nWith tensions on the Venezuela-Guyana border at a boiling point, [it has been speculated by some that the United States would become militarily involved if an armed conflict breaks out in the region.](https://time.com/5512005/venezuela-us-intervention-history-latin-america/) [There is historical precedent for this.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in_regime_change_in_Latin_America)\n\nThis question asks: will the United States fight on Guyana's side if Guyana is invaded by Venezuela?" }, { "id": 20374, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1000 deaths from Afghani-Pakistani conflict", "url_title": "1000 deaths from Afghani-Pakistani conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-afghani-pakistani-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:31:08.875335Z", "published_at": "2023-12-29T20:13:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-10T02:53:12.519612Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-29T20:13:00Z", "comment_count": 5, 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"2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Afghanistan and Pakistan have fought border skirmishes for many decades.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes#) [Some have suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/15/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-border-war/) that [war between the two countries](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/why-are-tensions-rising-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan/2954687) is likely now that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Afghanistan and Pakistan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Afghanistan and the government of Pakistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Afghanistan or Pakistan cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20374, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757472782.336493, "end_time": 1783303444.874, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757472782.336493, "end_time": 1783303444.874, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.26 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.74, 0.26 ], "means": [ 0.38196362189303923 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 1.9648240859628974, 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null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.763194592264469, 0.23680540773553102 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 69, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Afghanistan and Pakistan have fought border skirmishes for many decades.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Afghanistan%E2%80%93Pakistan_border_skirmishes#) [Some have suggested](https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/12/15/pakistan-afghanistan-taliban-border-war/) that [war between the two countries](https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/why-are-tensions-rising-between-pakistan-and-afghanistan/2954687) is likely now that the Taliban are back in charge of Afghanistan." }, { "id": 20373, "title": "Will armed conflict between the Philippines and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 deaths from China-Philippines conflict", "url_title": "100 deaths from China-Philippines conflict", "slug": "100-deaths-from-china-philippines-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:16:23.326791Z", "published_at": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-12T01:04:52.993079Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2049-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-31T20:16:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, 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This is the latest in a [long series of disputes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Philippines_relations) between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of the Philippines and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as No otherwise.", "fine_print": "In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "post_id": 20373, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1757639082.891427, "end_time": 1783169289.242, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.261 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1757639082.891427, "end_time": 1783169289.242, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.261 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.2301865022193165 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.280673750788608, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7549731054070334, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.5608812398816437, 0.668297357590312, 0.0, 0.0, 0.153865828537011, 0.0, 0.2673887142896781, 0.0, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.45529495594735647, 0.0, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.07073615502467667, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2581744010322857, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11525585627893538, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6850893156161345, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289934.418278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289934.418278, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8479474574293822, 0.15205254257061784 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 63, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Tensions are currently high between the Philippines and China](https://www.foxnews.com/world/philippine-coast-guard-constructs-new-surveillance-base-south-china-sea-monitor-chinese-vessels) after a boat collision in the South China Sea. This is the latest in a [long series of disputes](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Philippines_relations) between the two countries. 93% of Filipinos are concerned about a military confrontation with China." }, { "id": 20372, "title": "Will armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "short_title": "100 deaths from China-Vietnam conflict", "url_title": "100 deaths from China-Vietnam conflict", "slug": "100-deaths-from-china-vietnam-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:09:15.995760Z", "published_at": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.088586Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "comment_count": 6, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 20, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20372, "title": "Will armed conflict between Vietnam and the People's Republic of China (PRC) cause at least 100 deaths before 2050?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:09:15.995760Z", "open_time": "2023-12-30T20:15:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-02T20:15:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-02T20:15:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2050-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2050-01-01T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Vietnam and China have historically fought many conflicts against one another](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_Wars), the latest of which occurred in the 1980s. [Relations remain tense in some areas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Vietnam_relations), and 84% of Vietnamese fear military conflict with China.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, at any time between January 1, 2021 and January 1, 2050, either of the following occurs:\n\n- There are at least three credible government sources reporting at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Vietnam and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n- There are at least three credible news reports that at least one exchange of weapon fire between the national military forces or law enforcement personnel of Vietnam and the People's Republic of China causing a total of at least 100 deaths.\n\nThese 100 deaths do not have to occur in the same conflict or the same year; it is sufficient for multiple separate events to reach a total of 100 deaths in this period.\n\nThis question will resolve as No otherwise.", "fine_print": "In the context of this question, an armed conflict will be defined as a dispute that concerns a government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in an exchange of weapon fire or detonations", "post_id": 20372, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756158925.073101, "end_time": 1783169342.909, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.243 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756158925.073101, "end_time": 1783169342.909, "forecaster_count": 19, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.05 ], "centers": [ 0.125 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.243 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.875, 0.125 ], "means": [ 0.18635453379094735 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7899439243127377, 0.1668302445981351, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5053790060954042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5939306390013879, 0.0, 0.892082160452736, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14816789822404922, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.8787423187641885, 0.4086904201879483, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.11969230358260687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.47078787023876, 0.0, 0.05261861201859691, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2164335258165257, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728287722.658583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728287722.658583, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.90213307452023, 0.09786692547977009 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 4, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Vietnam and China have historically fought many conflicts against one another](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sino-Vietnamese_Wars), the latest of which occurred in the 1980s. [Relations remain tense in some areas](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Vietnam_relations), and 84% of Vietnamese fear military conflict with China." }, { "id": 20371, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1000 deaths from Kyrgyz-Tajik Conflict", "url_title": "1000 deaths from Kyrgyz-Tajik Conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-kyrgyz-tajik-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:01:17.836739Z", "published_at": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:55.778792Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "comment_count": 5, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20371, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T02:01:17.836739Z", "open_time": "2023-12-28T20:12:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-31T20:12:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-31T20:12:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a [border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) This was [the second time in as many years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, [there remains fears](https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-building-up-for-another-potential-round-of-fighting) about another, potentially larger round of hostilities.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Kyrgyzstan and the government of Tajikistan. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will be Annulled.", "post_id": 20371, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756843373.769894, "end_time": 1787694281.737, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756843373.769894, "end_time": 1787694281.737, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.333 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.667, 0.333 ], "means": [ 0.4096813596110203 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.7067314292484492, 0.39612878863968176, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6632780714818297, 1.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.24311673443421436, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6718862593113413, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05910574656195625, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289294.297121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289294.297121, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 14, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.840899790092557, 0.15910020990744303 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 42, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In 2022, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan fought a [border clash that led to dozens of deaths on both sides.](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) This was [the second time in as many years](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Kyrgyzstan%E2%80%93Tajikistan_clashes) that the two countries had fought an armed conflict regarding the border. Although a peace deal was signed in late 2022, [there remains fears](https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-kyrgyzstan-and-tajikistan-building-up-for-another-potential-round-of-fighting) about another, potentially larger round of hostilities." }, { "id": 20370, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "short_title": "1000 deaths from Morocco-Algeria Conflict", "url_title": "1000 deaths from Morocco-Algeria Conflict", "slug": "1000-deaths-from-morocco-algeria-conflict", "author_id": 114911, "author_username": "Joker", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-04T01:37:28.268531Z", "published_at": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:01.890147Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 19, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3687, "name": "Geopolitics", "slug": "geopolitics", "emoji": "🌍", "description": "Geopolitics", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20370, "title": "Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?", "created_at": "2023-12-04T01:37:28.268531Z", "open_time": "2023-12-14T01:02:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2023-12-17T01:02:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2023-12-17T01:02:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2070-07-31T16:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2069-12-31T17:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "[Relations between Morocco and Algeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations) have historically been rocky. [A brief war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_War) was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a [low-intensity conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. [Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/algeria-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-neighbouring-morocco-1.4655723), leading to [some speculation](https://www.memri.org/reports/always-approaching-never-arriving-war-between-algeria-and-morocco) about a [potential war.](https://politicstoday.org/morocco-algeria-tension-long-history-of-mistrust/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, for any single calendar year between 2023 and 2069, the [Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)](https://ucdp.uu.se/encyclopedia) reports at least 1,000 state-based conflict deaths between Morocco and Algeria (specifically, the category \"state-based violence\" occurring between the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria).\n\nFor resolution, any number of smaller conflicts (that may be differentiated by UCDP) will be summed up for as long as the main conflict parties are the government of Morocco and the government of Algeria. The 1,000 deaths need to occur in a single year. We will defer to UCDP's methodology in calculating conflict deaths.", "fine_print": "If either Morocco or Algeria cease to exist as sovereign nations before hostilities begin, this question will resolve as Ambiguous.", "post_id": 20370, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1756340197.894977, "end_time": 1787876199.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1756340197.894977, "end_time": 1787876199.099, "forecaster_count": 18, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "centers": [ 0.33 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.47 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6699999999999999, 0.33 ], "means": [ 0.31703378062896076 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.6059345510304436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5288293908805634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.28862105284580747, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6909710575892369, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3394722656914194, 0.0, 0.08122031490464846, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8436591098234325, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6392455230738961, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03906061193493671, 0.5935248795209733, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.887332896049865, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.10617775163122897, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16643491542409378, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20252551992505247, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288047.794057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288047.794057, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 17, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7897118522976403, 0.21028814770235965 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "[Relations between Morocco and Algeria](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algeria%E2%80%93Morocco_relations) have historically been rocky. [A brief war](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sand_War) was fought in the early 1960s over the border delineation, and Morocco has been fighting a [low-intensity conflict](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Western_Sahara_conflict) with the Algeria-backed Sahrawi Republic for control of the Western Sahara since the 1970s. [Political tension in 2021 caused the two countries to break off diplomatic relations,](https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/africa/algeria-breaks-off-diplomatic-ties-with-neighbouring-morocco-1.4655723), leading to [some speculation](https://www.memri.org/reports/always-approaching-never-arriving-war-between-algeria-and-morocco) about a [potential war.](https://politicstoday.org/morocco-algeria-tension-long-history-of-mistrust/)" }, { "id": 20360, "title": "Will the Republican Party retain New York's 3rd congressional district (previously held by George Santos) in the special election?", "short_title": "Will GOP Hold Santos' Old Seat?", "url_title": "Will GOP Hold Santos' Old Seat?", "slug": "will-gop-hold-santos-old-seat", "author_id": 114017, "author_username": "Kaleem", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-02T18:16:58.809688Z", "published_at": "2024-01-17T15:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.046512Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": 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His expulsion leaves the position of house representative for New York's 3rd district vacant. 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His expulsion leaves the position of house representative for New York's 3rd district vacant. [A special election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_New_York%27s_3rd_congressional_district_special_election) will be held to fill the vacancy on the 13th of February 2024." }, { "id": 20334, "title": "Will the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 in the US occur within four weeks of the combined peak for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV in the 2023-24 season?", "short_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (4 Weeks) 2023-24?", "url_title": "Respiratory \"Tripledemic\" (4 Weeks) 2023-24?", "slug": "respiratory-tripledemic-4-weeks-2023-24", "author_id": 117502, "author_username": "RyanBeck", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T21:14:39.542866Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.040772Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", "comment_count": 27, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", 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"2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-12T17:05:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-05-25T22:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if the maximum weekly rate of hospitalizations per 100,000 for each of COVID, influenza, and RSV that occurs in the 2023-24 season is less than or equal to four weeks (28 days) from the date of the maximum rate for all three combined, according to the CDC's [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html). The four weeks will be based on the week end dates. The CDC uses \"epidemiological weeks\" which begin on Sunday and end on Saturday. The rate used will be that for all ages, races, and sexes. See the fine print for the correct filters. For the purposes of this question, the 2023-2024 season will be considered to begin with the week ending on October 7, 2023, and end on the week ending June 1, 2024.\n\nTo allow for data revisions and reporting delays the question will resolve according to data shown after the reporting delay period, when the relevant figures for the current season is not shown as a dashed line, typically 4 weeks after the week end date.", "fine_print": "* In the event two or more weeks tie for the maximum of the combined viruses or for any individual virus this question will resolve as **Yes** if there exists any combination of maximums for which the individual maximums are four weeks or less from the same combined maximum.\n* The four week distance means that the total qualifying span of time will be eight weeks, four weeks on either side of the combined peak.\n* The following filters will be selected:\n\n * **Chart Selection:** \"Season\"\n * **View:** \"Weekly Rates\"\n * **Season:** \"2023-24\"\n * **Pathogen:** \"All\"", "post_id": 20334, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716442030.246778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716442030.246778, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.99 ], "centers": [ 0.997 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.999 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.0030000000000000027, 0.997 ], "means": [ 0.980754568304027 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028562043534371265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.023631498669224205, 0.04842515677234604, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0839758874887769, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1924966697899563, 0.0, 0.41204022956929676, 0.17630000022929448, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 8.023074666193612 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 18.6605919255264, "coverage": 0.9974194028703127, "baseline_score": 68.2593274578977, "spot_peer_score": 16.716476544570213, "peer_archived_score": 18.6605919255264, "baseline_archived_score": 68.2593274578977, "spot_peer_archived_score": 16.716476544570213 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1716623092.193405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1716623092.193405, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.0054921753793232275, 0.9945078246206768 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 7, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 233, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) closely monitors respiratory illnesses, particularly when these illnesses increase in prevalence during the winter. One monitoring and data sharing tool the CDC uses is [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html), which it describes as follows:\n\n>The Respiratory Virus Hospitalization Surveillance Network (RESP-NET) comprises three networks that conduct population-based surveillance for laboratory-confirmed hospitalizations associated with COVID-19, respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), and influenza among children and adults. While RESP-NET does not collect data on all hospitalizations caused by respiratory illnesses, it can describe hospitalizations caused by three viruses that account for a large proportion of these hospitalizations. Surveillance is conducted through a network of acute care hospitals in select counties or county equivalents in 12 states for RSV surveillance, 13 states for COVID-19 surveillance, and 14 states for influenza surveillance. The surveillance platforms for COVID-19, RSV, and influenza (known as [COVID-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covid-net/purpose-methods.html), [RSV-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/research/rsv-net/overview-methods.html), and [FluSurv-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/influenza-hospitalization-surveillance.htm), respectively) cover more than 30 million people and include an estimated 8-10% of the U.S. population.\n\nThe underlying source data for the RESP-NET dashboard can be found at [this link](https://data.cdc.gov/Public-Health-Surveillance/Rates-of-Laboratory-Confirmed-RSV-COVID-19-and-Flu/kvib-3txy).\n\nIn its [Respiratory Disease Season Outlook](https://www.cdc.gov/respiratory-viruses/whats-new/2023-2024-season-outlook.html) for 2023-24, the CDC describes the 2022-23 peak as a \"tripledemic\" due to high incidence of COVID, flu, and RSV at the same time. The [RESP-NET](https://www.cdc.gov/surveillance/resp-net/dashboard.html) figures for the 2022-23 season show a large combined peak hospitalization rate of 22.2 per 100,000 for the week ending December 3, 2022, coinciding with the maximum rate for flu and less than a month from the maximum rate for RSV which occurred during the week ending November 12, 2022, and also less than a month from the maximum rate for COVID which occurred on the week ending December 31, 2022." }, { "id": 20333, "title": "Will a new SARS-CoV-2 variant classified as a VOC or worse result in at least 20,000 daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the US before July 1, 2025?", "short_title": "VOC w/ ≥20k daily hospitalizations by 7/1/25?", "url_title": "VOC w/ ≥20k daily hospitalizations by 7/1/25?", "slug": "voc-w-20k-daily-hospitalizations-by-7125", "author_id": 130973, "author_username": "NMorrison", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T20:46:58.079611Z", "published_at": "2023-12-01T22:30:00Z", 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null, "description": "SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.\n\nSARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the resulting public health implications. These categories include Variants of Interest (VOI), Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of High Consequence (VOHC), and Variants Being Monitored (VBM). Each classification represents a different level of threat based on factors such as transmissibility, severity of disease, and impact on diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive measures. The detailed definitions and criteria for these classifications can be found on the [CDC's variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html).\n\n - A Variant of Concern (VOC) includes those that show increased transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., higher hospitalizations or deaths), or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination. \n- A Variant of High Consequence (VOHC), a more severe classification, is characterized by clear evidence of significantly reduced effectiveness of medical countermeasures. \n\nCurrently no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOC or VOHC. The last VOC was Omicron, which emerged in November 2021 and caused a [worldwide wave](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron) of cases. At its peak, Omicron [exceeded 20,000 daily hospital admissions](https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/) in the United States for a period of approximately 2 weeks", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, after December 1, 2023, and before July 1, 2025, all three of the following occur:\n\n1. The SARS-CoV-2 Interagency Group announces or [classifies on CDC's SARS-CoV-2 variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html) at least one new SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern (VOC) or Variant of High Consequence (VOHC) that was not previously identified as a VOC or VOHC at any point.\n2. Daily incident COVID hospitalizations in the United States reach 20,000 or higher according to [data provided by the COVID-19 Forecast Hub](https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/tree/master/data-truth).\n3. The surge of COVID hospitalizations (described in requirement 2) is attributed to the variant(s) (described in requirement 1) by the CDC or other credible sources. Not every hospitalization needs to be attributed to the variant(s) identified in requirement 1; it is sufficient if sources attribute the unusually large number of cases to the VOC(s).", "fine_print": "- If a new variant is classified using a new classification that is clearly described as being a level above VOC or having properties in addition to the possible attributes of a VOC or VOHC this question will also resolve as **Yes**.\n\n- If multiple new VOCs cause the surge in COVID hospitalizations, the question resolves **Yes**.", "post_id": 20333, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1750788148.825113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1750788148.825113, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 48, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.001 ], "centers": [ 0.001 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.009 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.999, 0.001 ], "means": [ 0.05732533917116674 ], "histogram": [ [ 9.458213184138577, 1.0677820701704266, 0.12167589399432807, 0.1314375106214734, 0.011348003115516677, 0.03130111324493289, 0.031347272583498446, 0.019678999436820003, 0.7262634069739012, 0.0, 0.09493869584722352, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0471123603738702, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.016576386347562713, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.041314330922520195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.013808762573796008, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5508432647395618 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 96.51204605647759, "peer_score": 25.700113854132855, "coverage": 0.9997539519849286, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9997539519849286, "spot_peer_score": 36.415682522717525, "spot_baseline_score": 84.79969065549501, "baseline_archived_score": 96.51204605647759, "peer_archived_score": 25.700113854132855, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 36.415682522717525, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 84.79969065549501 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288724.839618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288724.839618, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 40, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9962992398779952, 0.0037007601220048615 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 8, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 260, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, constantly evolves through genetic mutations and recombinations, leading to numerous variants that differ from the original strain.\n\nSARS-CoV-2 variants are categorized based on their genetic mutations and the resulting public health implications. These categories include Variants of Interest (VOI), Variants of Concern (VOC), Variants of High Consequence (VOHC), and Variants Being Monitored (VBM). Each classification represents a different level of threat based on factors such as transmissibility, severity of disease, and impact on diagnostic, therapeutic, and preventive measures. The detailed definitions and criteria for these classifications can be found on the [CDC's variant classifications page](https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/variants/variant-classifications.html).\n\n - A Variant of Concern (VOC) includes those that show increased transmissibility, more severe disease (e.g., higher hospitalizations or deaths), or significant reduction in neutralization by antibodies from previous infection or vaccination. \n- A Variant of High Consequence (VOHC), a more severe classification, is characterized by clear evidence of significantly reduced effectiveness of medical countermeasures. \n\nCurrently no SARS-CoV-2 variants are designated as VOC or VOHC. The last VOC was Omicron, which emerged in November 2021 and caused a [worldwide wave](https://www.who.int/news-room/feature-stories/detail/one-year-since-the-emergence-of-omicron) of cases. At its peak, Omicron [exceeded 20,000 daily hospital admissions](https://viz.covid19forecasthub.org/) in the United States for a period of approximately 2 weeks" }, { "id": 20279, "title": "Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?", "short_title": "Executive Order on AI Repealed?", "url_title": "Executive Order on AI Repealed?", "slug": "executive-order-on-ai-repealed", "author_id": 111743, "author_username": "NathanpmYoung", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2023-12-01T18:28:43.809447Z", "published_at": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:57.761463Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "comment_count": 15, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-01T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "topic": [ { "id": 15869, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "ai", "emoji": "🤖", "type": "topic" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3692, "name": "Computing and Math", "slug": "computing-and-math", "emoji": "💻", "description": "Computing and Math", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3694, "name": "Artificial Intelligence", "slug": "artificial-intelligence", "emoji": "🤖", "description": "Artificial Intelligence", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 20279, "title": "Will the Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence be revoked or materially amended before November 2028?", "created_at": "2023-12-01T18:28:43.809447Z", "open_time": "2024-01-19T00:22:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-01-22T00:22:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-01-22T00:22:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2028-11-08T00:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2025-01-21T04:01:18.524123Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2028-11-01T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2025-01-20T23:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "President Joe Biden has issued an Executive Order addressing the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), acknowledging its potential for promise and peril. The [order emphasizes](https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R47843) responsible AI use while warning against irresponsible practices that could lead to societal harm, discrimination, bias, and national security risks. It seeks to accommodate various perspectives but faces potential challenges in execution and from legislative efforts for AI regulation. Critics argue the order's reporting requirements may hinder innovation, leading to market concerns and declining AI-related token prices.", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves **Yes** if the [Executive Order on the Safe, Secure, and Trustworthy Development and Use of Artificial Intelligence](https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2023/10/30/executive-order-on-the-safe-secure-and-trustworthy-development-and-use-of-artificial-intelligence/) is cancelled, revoked, or materially modified at any point before the end of November 2028. The source of resolution will be an official statement by the White House or a reputable international news source citing such an official statement. If no such official statement or reputable news source confirms the repeal or significant amendment of the order before the end of November 2028, the question resolves \"No\". In the event that the order is confirmed to have been repealed or materially amended prior to the end of November 2028, the question resolves \"Yes.\"", "fine_print": "- Material modification refers to any change that alters the original intent or impact of the order.\n- If the order simply expires without being cancelled, revoked, or materially modified, the question resolves as \"No.\"", "post_id": 20279, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1737418261.307472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.885 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1737418261.307472, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.82 ], "centers": [ 0.885 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.95 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.11499999999999999, 0.885 ], "means": [ 0.8673918970504833 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05892591724387544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03499639918756375, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.030893002561247163, 0.0, 0.017197143016031723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03911858530021452, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2010418409121184, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3393806732212451, 0.8842321130979868, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.18599201130361204, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0839758874887769, 0.22827012898946356, 0.0, 1.270089954671456, 0.3660118313347263, 0.0, 0.5608812398816437, 0.0, 1.3754756490190947, 0.8305036517217669, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9120497244989734 ] ] }, "score_data": { "baseline_score": 7.988934277836805, "peer_score": 5.4314350416063615, "coverage": 0.20939998398465154, "relative_legacy_score": 0.0, "weighted_coverage": 0.9947951654803892, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -51.45731728297583, "baseline_archived_score": 7.988934277836805, "peer_archived_score": 5.4314350416063615, "relative_legacy_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -51.45731728297583 }, "movement": null }, "unweighted": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "single_aggregation": { "history": [], "latest": null, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728289110.149213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728289110.149213, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.2974320013632268, 0.7025679986367732 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 6, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 91, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "President Joe Biden has issued an Executive Order addressing the development and use of artificial intelligence (AI), acknowledging its potential for promise and peril. 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