Posts List Oldapi View
We shared this request example with FAB participants: url_qparams = { "limit": count, "offset": offset, "has_group": "false", "order_by": "-activity", "forecast_type": "binary", "project": tournament_id, "status": "open", "type": "forecast", "include_description": "true", } url = f"{api_info.base_url}/questions/" response = requests.get( url, headers={"Authorization": f"Token {api_info.token}"}, params=url_qparams )
But we don't want to support all these parameters, and the ones relevant are: - order_by - status - project - forecast_type - we ignore this, but assume it's binary - FAB only supports binary for now.
GET /api2/questions/?format=api&offset=2920
{ "count": 6356, "next": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2940", "previous": "http://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/?format=api&limit=20&offset=2900", "results": [ { "id": 25957, "title": "Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-tadej-pogacar-win-the-tour-de-france-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.420182Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:28.541755Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 45, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 30, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25957, "title": "Will Tadej Pogačar win the Tour de France 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.420182Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:36:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the cyclist who is officially recognized as the winner of the Tour de France 2024, based on official results published on the Tour de France [website](https://www.letour.fr/en/) or other [credible sources](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#definitions).", "fine_print": "If a cyclist not named in any option is the winner, the question will resolve as **Other**.\n\n In the [exceptionally unlikely](https://www.cyclingnews.com/features/can-the-tour-de-france-end-in-a-tie/) event of a tie after all of the Tour de France's tiebreakers and no single winner of the general classification is declared, this question will be **annulled**.", "post_id": 25957, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707769.382423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.675 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707769.382423, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.675 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.6017618261741925 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2246733395813426, 0.0, 0.0, 0.17630000022929448, 0.6850893156161345, 0.4087506853414205, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09877132838432481, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21018155685325723, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.620502543612061, 0.9120497244989734, 0.0, 0.0, 1.3913848916034106, 0.0, 0.5059112341124612, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9127011007473544, 0.0, 1.6569673477836253, 0.8342912647406268, 0.0, 0.12966207226855211, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.011364900518339544, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3268262380230357, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.22827012898946356, 0.13357075254608086, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 31.034012061215048, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 31.034012061215048 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707769.402868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707769.402868, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 30, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4811411036719473, 0.5188588963280527 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Tour de France](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Tour_de_France) is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The [2024 edition of the race](https://www.letour.fr/en/overall-route) started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.\n\nFor more information please see:\n\n[New York Times What to Know About This Year’s Tour de France (Which Begins in Italy)](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/sports/cycling/tour-de-france-preview.html)" }, { "id": 25956, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-democrats-have-a-brokered-convention-in-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.194882Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.996377Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25956, "title": "Will Democrats have a brokered convention in 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.194882Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-08-23T11:51:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)", "resolution_criteria": "This question resolves as **Yes** if the Democratic Party requires more than one round of voting in its roll call ballot to formally nominate its candidate for the 2024 US presidential election. If only one ballot is required, then this question resolves as **No**.", "fine_print": "Whether the official presidential roll call vote is conducted virtually or in-person will not affect the resolution of this question. For example, if the roll call is conducted virtually and before the in-person convention, the question will resolve at that point and will resolve as either Yes or No depending on whether more than one round of voting was required.", "post_id": 25956, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707768.390861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707768.390861, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.15 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.18 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.85, 0.15 ], "means": [ 0.16460228215913839 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.16103927879919655, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6257872328778666, 0.46671930961364805, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 0.3260481154903181, 0.5667911627135067, 0.6896218051583209, 0.7868332148914403, 0.0, 0.44877993301944297, 0.0, 1.415884125078357, 0.8773351218576806, 0.0, 0.4302386199135554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26577008775178024, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.46211900267680595, 1.019377360956032, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 76.55347463629771, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 76.55347463629771 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707768.41375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707768.41375, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9200833349872043, 0.07991666501279568 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "In US politics a brokered convention is [defined as](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-is-a-brokered-convention-what-is-a-contested-convention/) a nominating convention in which no candidate has won a majority of the votes in the first round of voting by the delegates. In the 19th Century, brokered conventions were quite common. However, in the 31 presidential elections since the turn of the 20th Century, the Democratic Party has had 5 brokered conventions: \n\n| Year | Number of ballots | Nominee |\n|------|-------------------|--------------------------------|\n| 1952 | 3 | Adlai Stevenson |\n| 1932 | 4 | Franklin D. Roosevelt |\n| 1924 | 103 | John Davis |\n| 1920 | 44 | James Cox |\n| 1912 | 46 | Woodrow Wilson |\n\nOn paper, one might argue that President Joe Biden should be able to fairly easily avoid a brokered convention due to winning 99% of [pledged delegates](https://www.usatoday.com/elections/results/2024/presidential-delegates). Additionally, the Democratic Party's [current plan](https://sourcenm.com/2024/06/24/dnc-moves-ahead-on-all-virtual-roll-call-for-biden-presidential-nomination/) is to hold its roll call virtually, before the in-person Convention and before Ohio's August 7th ballot deadline. \n\nHowever, following Biden's debate with Donald Trump on June 28, 2024, which the New York Times described as \"[disastrous](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/30/us/politics/biden-debate-anxious-democrats.html),\" there was a widespread \"freak out\" among Democrats [according to Politico](https://archive.ph/mhK7S), which reported that \"One prominent operative texted, 'Time for an open convention.'\" There were calls for Biden to bow out of the race, for example the NY Times [Editorial Board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and influential columnist [Thomas Friedman](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/joe-biden-tom-friedman.html). However, as of June 30, 2024, prominent Democrats continued to publicly stand behind Biden, such as former President [Barack Obama](https://www.axios.com/2024/06/28/obama-rescue-biden-calm-nervous-democrats-2024-election) and Congressman [James E. Clyburn](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4746240-clyburn-biden-debate/). \n\nInitial polling after the debate [found](https://www.forbes.com/sites/brianbushard/2024/06/29/warning-signs-for-biden-post-debate-polls-show-more-voters-worried-about-bidens-fitness-but-race-still-virtually-tied/) that increasing numbers of voters believe Biden should drop out. On June 26, 2024 , the day before the debate, Biden was behind Trump by 0.1 in the [538 polling averages](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/). On June 30th, following several post-debate polls, Biden's deficit swelled to 1.3 points.\n\nSee Also\n\nPew Research: [Contested presidential conventions, and why parties try to avoid them](https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/02/04/contested-presidential-conventions-and-why-parties-try-to-avoid-them/)<br />\nUS News & World Report: [What Is an Open Convention and Why Do Some Democrats Want One?](https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-06-28/what-is-an-open-convention-and-why-do-some-democrats-want-one)<br />\nWikipedia: [Brokered convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brokered_convention)<br />\nThe Atlantic: [The Biden-Replacement Operation](https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/06/great-democratic-conundrum-biden/678830/)" }, { "id": 25955, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "before-october-1-2024-will-there-be-an-armed-forces-death-in-a-conflict-opposing-china-to-taiwan-the-united-states-the-philippines-or-japan", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.109031Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:20.507068Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25955, "title": "Before October 1, 2024, will there be an armed forces death in a conflict opposing China to Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.109031Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:00:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as **Yes** if, before October 1, 2024, credible reports confirm one or more deaths among the armed forces of China, Taiwan, the United States, the Philippines, or Japan as a result of armed conflict, whether caused by China to one of the other parties or inflicted on China by them.", "fine_print": "* Auxiliary forces under the control of a government will qualify, for example China's [various paramilitary forces](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paramilitary_forces_of_China) or Taiwan's [Coast Guard Administration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coast_Guard_Administration_(Taiwan)).\n* Incidents of friendly fire will not count toward the total, if it can unambiguously and promptly (within 10 days of the first public report of the first qualifying death) be determined that deaths were caused by friendly fire.\n* \"Armed conflict\" is defined as any sort of intentional combat between forces of China and at least one of the other entities mentioned. This does not include accidents, such as vehicle collisions.", "post_id": 25955, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707815.991766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707815.991766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.12 ], "centers": [ 0.3 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.7, 0.3 ], "means": [ 0.27703002834463575 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1340786609779083, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4666385559637759, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.9120263396662294, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.02591031830222411, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.012460834330696993, 0.28307053233759993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.44816710576384877, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09641283329043687, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.36489512290200554, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.033872059528572265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 48.542682717024164, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 48.542682717024164 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707816.021087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707816.021087, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6692034112239551, 0.33079658877604484 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 17, 2024, tensions between China and the Philippines [escalated](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-south-china-sea-ship-06e9fe0ef440aba09bc650d986d83377) when a Chinese vessel and a Philippine supply ship [collided](https://apnews.com/article/china-philippines-second-thomas-shoal-collision-navy-8c14b945066967189b01d701b17c10ae) near the Spratly Islands. See timeline of South China Sea confrontations [here](https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/chinese-philippine-ship-collision-latest-string-south-china-111176594).\n\nWith respect to Taiwan, China has recently escalated military tensions \n by launching [large-scale military drills](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/world/asia/china-taiwan-drills.html) around the main island starting on May 23, 2024. These drills were described by China as \"punishment\" for what it considers separatist acts by Taiwan, and mark a significant test for Taiwan's newly inaugurated leader, [Lai Ching-te](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/20/william-lai-ching-te-takes-oath-to-become-taiwans-new-president), who assumed office on May 20, 2024. Initial phases of the exercises involved dozens of Chinese fighter jets, destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats conducting mock strikes against Taiwanese military targets.\n\nSince the exercises, China [increased](https://www.zona-militar.com/en/2024/06/25/the-chinese-air-force-fighters-continue-to-maintain-a-high-operational-presence-in-taiwans-adiz/) its naval and air presence near the main island of Taiwan, including increased encroachments into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). On June 28, 2024, Taiwan [warned]( https://www.taipeitimes.com/News/front/archives/2024/06/28/2003819999) its citizens against unnecessary travel to Mainland China, due to Beijing rolling out new guidelines allowing its courts to try and sentence what it called \"Taiwan independence separatists.\"\n\nIn late June 2024, the United States Pacific Fleet [hosted](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/28/worlds-largest-maritime-drills-begin-in-an-increasingly-tense-asia-pacific) its biennial Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) maritime drills including Japan as one of the participants. The exercises included \"[practicing to sink](https://www.eurasiantimes.com/us-navy-practicing-to-sink-chinas-40-000/)\" a Chinese warship. In response the spokesperson of China's Ministry of National Defense [condemned](https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202406/1314965.shtml) the drills and reiterated that China considers Taiwan to be a part of its territory." }, { "id": 25954, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?", "short_title": "PM of France belong to not NPF or Together", "url_title": "PM of France belong to not NPF or Together", "slug": "pm-of-france-belong-to-not-npf-or-together", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.026941Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.559566Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 42, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25954, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to a coalition other than New Popular Front or Together on July 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:39.026941Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-31T11:15:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is not New Popular Front or Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.\n\nThe question will resolve as Yes if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.", "post_id": 25954, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707776.519645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707776.519645, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.17 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3948834548667552 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.48480115213825536, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9155805600042743, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03130111324493288, 0.3750715592319926, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12986489431465323, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.26629006976841835, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01505338459998825, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9036232277094834, 0.0, 0.43289785514522633, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7429155235659053, 0.0, 0.20380305925474834, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6030611589824653, 0.0, 0.9074353916842878, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15266220141285267, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707776.542939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707776.542939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7220468355549754, 0.2779531644450246 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 41, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left." }, { "id": 25953, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?", "short_title": "PM of France belong to the Together", "url_title": "PM of France belong to the Together", "slug": "pm-of-france-belong-to-the-together", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:38.944842Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:11.449815Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:13:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25953, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the Together coalition on July 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:38.944842Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:13:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:13:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-31T11:13:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is Together on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.", "post_id": 25953, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707770.446863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707770.446863, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.49 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.55 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.51, 0.49 ], "means": [ 0.48739369503781554 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03573243764150962, 0.05382522520245611, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0036604767902044, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.378562867757639, 0.29853580031441634, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0844150862526956, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.681654212830137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 1.2715456741641045, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.16103927879919655, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5227235049387802, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.080321695294913, 0.0, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.021585930219435643, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -2.914634565951651, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -2.914634565951651 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720707770.479766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720707770.479766, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7382029697946253, 0.2617970302053747 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left." }, { "id": 25952, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?", "short_title": "PM of France belong to the New Popular Front", "url_title": "PM of France belong to the New Popular Front", "slug": "pm-of-france-belong-to-the-new-popular-front", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:38.857138Z", "published_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.454883Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 48, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:14:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 31, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25952, "title": "Will the Prime Minister of France belong to the New Popular Front coalition on July 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:59:38.857138Z", "open_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:14:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-31T11:14:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-31T11:14:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-11T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the party of the Prime Minister of France is New Popular Front on July 30th, at 12:00 Central European Time, according to credible sources.", "fine_print": "The [official site of the government](https://www.info.gouv.fr/composition-du-gouvernement) will be the ultimate source of who is the Prime Minister, and the Interior Ministry will be the source as to which party they belong to.\n\nThe question will resolve as No if there is no sitting Prime Minister at that time.", "post_id": 25952, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720708193.80415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720708193.80415, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.41 ], "centers": [ 0.54 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.45999999999999996, 0.54 ], "means": [ 0.4817063741864473 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0902215738421042, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.320121730533852, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4379819334420586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20851081619995687, 0.0, 0.015708539450405595, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5123307444416587, 0.10527918291777463, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21937187625094154, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6896218051583209, 1.295220702457265, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5769234038775535, 0.010381142261586365, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1405470336200478, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5667911627135067, 0.3424769302936217, 0.6257872328778666, 0.7586143445231218, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9134389029481002, 1.0, 0.0, 0.04423342207722153, 0.0, 0.05382522520245611, 0.2358265416482139, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.33432944568041745, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12200872167164427, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.028218870368318452, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -12.029423371771195, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -12.029423371771195 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720708193.826987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720708193.826987, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 31, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7127685427424926, 0.28723145725750737 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After a far-right victory in the European elections, French President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly, calling snap elections for June 30th and July 7th.\n\nThe majority of the 577 districts will [see a runoff](https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/french-election-run-off-how-does-it-work-what-look-out-2024-07-05/) on Sunday, July 7, with the most common set of qualified parties being the National Rally-led Union of the Far-Right, centrist Together, and left and center-left New Popular Front. The unprecedented number of three-way runoffs (including *four*-ways in five districts) was boosted by strong turnout, [nearly 20 percentage points more than in 2022](https://www.cbsnews.com/news/strong-turnout-france-high-stakes-elections-support-far-right-grows/); but Together and the NPF guided their third-placed candidates to withdraw to improve the other's chances to beat the far-right, mostly represented by Marine Le Pen's National Rally.\n\nOnce the runoff numbers are known for the 17th National Assembly, the question becomes: who will be Prime Minister? The French semi-presidential system gives President Macron political responsibilities, in particular in foreign policy, regardless of the makeup of Parliament; but he must also nominate a Prime Minister, who conducts domestic policy. The government does not need a positive confidence vote from legislators, but it could be subject to a vote of no confidence; current Prime Minister Gabriel Attal's minority government has been relying on case-by-case deals to get legislation approved.\n\nWhile the far-right has already elected 38 Deputies and made it to the runoff almost everywhere, its surge might still be forestalled by the strategic pact between the center and the left." }, { "id": 25936, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-crimean-bridge-be-hit-with-an-attack-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.256205Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.950242Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25936, "title": "Will the Crimean Bridge be hit with an attack before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.256205Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:58:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, after May 2, 2024, and before Sept 30, 2024, credible sources report that the Crimean Bridge has been struck with weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles that could pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge.", "fine_print": "* The bridge must be physically struck by the weapons fire, explosives, or projectiles, attacks that are intercepted or otherwise do not strike the bridge will not count.\n* There is no requirement on how much damage the bridge must receive, the only requirement is that the strike must pose a credible threat to the integrity of the bridge. For example, a car bomb detonated on the bridge would count, while the bridge being struck with bullets of a caliber that would cause only superficial harm, or the collision of a small vessel that does not pose a threat to the integrity of the bridge do not count.\n* There is no requirement on who the attack is attributed to. Attacks attributed to or blamed on any country or group would count, including terrorism.\n* A strike on either the rail bridge or the road bridge counts.\n* A strike on the immediate bridge approaches will also count.\n* Metaculus will make a determination as to whether potentially qualifying events satisfy these criteria, and may **annul** the question if it is unclear from available reporting whether the criteria have been satisfied.", "post_id": 25936, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621590.581045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621590.581045, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.7 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5530733185151531 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6149678299500161, 0.8737097651107917, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.49919970777631545, 0.0, 0.0, 1.068096062136099, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.04289084712097685, 0.10829599059260063, 0.42016237060021105, 0.0, 0.0, 1.2204285967221349, 0.0, 1.389282745165388, 0.0, 0.0, 0.250282548042939, 0.07755734487342231, 0.25790909328149764, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5962597563721304, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -39.592867633113926, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -39.592867633113926 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621590.600654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621590.600654, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.497464253191118, 0.502535746808882 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 60, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The [Crimean Bridge](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge) crosses the [Kerch Strait](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerch_Strait) between the Crimean peninsula and the Russian mainland. The bridge is [approximately 12 miles long](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/15/putin-opens-bridge-between-crimea-and-russian-mainland) and consists of a separated four-lane road bridge and a two-track rail bridge. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine the Crimean Bridge has been [attacked three times](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crimean_Bridge#Attacks_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine), with attacks successfully damaging the bridge in October of 2022 and July of 2023, and the third attack failing to strike the bridge in August of 2023.\n\nIn April of 2024 there were reports that Ukraine is planning another attack on the Crimean Bridge. On April 4, 2024, [The Guardian reported](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/03/ukraine-eyes-kerch-bridge-crimea-drone-attack):\n\n>The HUR [[Defense Intelligence of Ukraine](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Directorate_of_Intelligence_(Ukraine))] thinks it can disable the bridge soon. “We will do it in the first half of 2024,” one official told the Guardian, adding that Kyrylo Budanov, the head of the main directorate of intelligence, already had “most of the means to carry out this goal”. He was following a plan approved by Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, to “minimise” Russia’s naval presence in the Black Sea.\n\nOn April 26, 2024, [Newsweek reported](https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-decoy-missiles-crimea-bridge-attack-rybar-1894639) that an attack could coincide with Russian President Vladimir Putin's [May 7 inauguration](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Russian_presidential_election#:~:text=He%20is%20scheduled%20to%20be%20inaugurated%20on%207%20May%202024.):\n\n>[Telegram channel] Rybar said an attack on the Kerch Bridge could happen before the inauguration of Putin on May 7. The Russian leader last month secured his fifth term in office.\n>\n>\"Considering the love of the Ukrainian authorities and their curators for symbolism, the target once again may be the Crimean Bridge, the attention to which is very high,\" Rybar said.\n>\n>The analysis comes after Russian military expert Vladislav Shurygin said on state TV that he believes Ukraine will attack the Kerch Strait Bridge on May 7." }, { "id": 25935, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-openai-publish-information-describing-q-q-star-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.173219Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:52.220908Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25935, "title": "Will OpenAI publish information describing Q* (Q-Star) by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:27.173219Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:48:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if, by Sept 30, 2024, OpenAI publicly acknowledges that a system or method it has explored is the rumored Q* (or Q-Star) and publishes (or has published in the past) a document (e.g., a blog post, paper, or video, but not a tweet) describing the system or method rumored to be Q*.", "fine_print": "A description of Q* must state that it is a system or method that was or is currently being developed or explored by OpenAI and must provide some information about what Q* is (for example, giving an overview of how Q* works without delving into technical detail). A description of a system or method that was published before 2024 but is publicly acknowledged to be Q* before Sept 30, 2024 will resolve the question as Yes.\nA description does not need to contain any of the following:\nA statement that Q* has been used on or is an AI system that has finished training or that is functional.\nAn accompanying release of an AI system known as Q* or that has been trained using Q*.\nAny performance results.\nA paper describing it in detail.\nA public acknowledgement that the system or method described is Q* does not need to be made in the initial document describing the system or method, and can occur at a later time, including from public statements by OpenAI staff, including interviews, media appearances, or podcasts (this does not include statements made anonymously or on background). The question will resolve as Yes when all criteria are met. For example, if OpenAI publishes information about an AI system not named Q*, but in a later interview the OpenAI CEO states that the system is the previously rumored Q*, the question will resolve as Yes.\nThe system or method must be announced by OpenAI, or any entity which legally acquires or merges with OpenAI. If Microsoft or any other entity exercises its existing rights or purchases rights such that it announces such a system or method but without having legally acquired or merged with OpenAI it will not be sufficient.\nA description specifically of Q* must be provided, a description of a system or method characterized as a successor to Q* would not qualify.", "post_id": 25935, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621640.688598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621640.688598, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.3869530571878591 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.7511534702699268, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3190127781780022, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.37665269342317054, 0.04289084712097685, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09207380390900106, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.5330717673048877, 0.0, 1.4481671057638488, 0.9634090346631489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01885548841701457, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.8277762550959286, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9105903213533636, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.1687033331669892, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43589991024459757, 0.0, 0.835396426672151, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.19330086451826228, 0.06460822876323534, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 26.303440583379377, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 26.303440583379377 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621640.707715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621640.707715, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7246532830854582, 0.2753467169145418 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "After the OpenAI board [temporarily removed Sam Altman as CEO](https://www.theverge.com/23966325/openai-sam-altman-fired-turmoil-chatgpt) in November 2023, rumors abounded regarding the reasons behind the decision. One such rumor was that the move was sparked by progress in a new AI system with potentially dangerous capabilities. Citing anonymous sources, [Reuters reported the following](https://www.reuters.com/technology/sam-altmans-ouster-openai-was-precipitated-by-letter-board-about-ai-breakthrough-2023-11-22/):\n\n>Ahead of OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s four days in exile, several staff researchers wrote a letter to the board of directors warning of a powerful artificial intelligence discovery that they said could threaten humanity, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.\n>\n>. . .\n>\n>After being contacted by Reuters, OpenAI, which declined to comment, acknowledged in an internal message to staffers a project called Q\\* and a letter to the board before the weekend's events, one of the people said. An OpenAI spokesperson said that the message, sent by long-time executive Mira Murati, alerted staff to certain media stories without commenting on their accuracy." }, { "id": 25934, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-us-offer-india-a-nuclear-submarine-before-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.795922Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:54.386418Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 58, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 29, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25934, "title": "Will US offer India a nuclear submarine before Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.795922Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-10-02T15:52:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "no", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if the United States makes a public formal agreement with India to build, design, lease, or sell a nuclear-powered submarine for the Indian Navy at any time between January 1, 2022 and Sept 30, 2024", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25934, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621537.995024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621537.995024, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.042 ], "centers": [ 0.05 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.95, 0.05 ], "means": [ 0.0966482421759953 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8277762550959286, 0.09207380390900106, 0.28307053233759993, 0.3528848377065745, 0.7940443173909038, 3.7722323543399945, 0.3278398929163613, 0.02591031830222411, 0.0, 0.06460822876323534, 0.6603234586991256, 0.0, 0.053094864755261, 0.0, 0.10829599059260063, 0.4013068821831965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.12637014538023153, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6803385023255489, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5546969869327895, 0.0, 0.0, 0.012460834330696993, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.14645117361277293, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 92.5999418556223, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 92.5999418556223 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621538.017414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621538.017414, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 29, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9699999931881098, 0.0300000068118902 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 58, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "60% of India’s military hardware inventory (as of March 2022) is [from Russia](https://www.defensenews.com/global/asia-pacific/2022/03/02/india-braces-for-sanctions-on-russia-to-delay-weapons-programs-deliveries/) and the former Soviet Union. Many of India's conventional and nuclear-powered submarines have been supplied by [Russia/USSR](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_submarines_of_the_Indian_Navy). The only nuclear submarine in India's Navy as of June 2022 is the Indian-built [INS Arihant](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/INS_Arihant).\n\nIn [September 2021](https://www.indiatoday.in/india-today-insight/story/why-the-us-won-t-give-india-nuclear-submarines-1854818-2021-09-20), the US, UK, and Australia made an agreement to design and build 8 nuclear submarines for Australia's navy. Former Indian naval chief Arun Prakash [commented](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-1101.1-1109.101), \"For years, the US has been telling India that American laws make it impossible to share nuclear-propulsion tech with anyone, including allies.\" Srinath Raghavan, professor of international relations at Ashoka University [said](https://archive.ph/WR4oJ#selection-2383.1-2383.215) \"It’s normal realpolitik, [...] The US gave short shrift to an ally like France in the process, [so] it would be silly of India to see this as a snub.\"" }, { "id": 25933, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)\t\n be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-cboe-sp-500-3-month-volatility-index-vxvcls-be-higher-year-over-year-on-july-20-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.715213Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:49.053026Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 56, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 27, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25933, "title": "Will the CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index (VXVCLS)\t\n be higher Year-over-Year on July 20, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.715213Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:43:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS. The reported number for July 20, 2024 must be greater than the reported number on July 20, 2023.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 25933, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621658.083623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621658.083623, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.5 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.58 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.5, 0.5 ], "means": [ 0.4154782317774764 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.8218869508967813, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34196503051998717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13082761184065436, 0.30235531220200856, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6030611589824652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5414109223414629, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.34434042258476977, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3861804538733092, 0.0, 0.9715769570268549, 0.0, 0.0, 1.1049088383500418, 0.11123030328809189, 1.1758133787111316, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.38538527315093474, 0.0, 0.04091934181495329, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4998545367382436, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.09369360910749297, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.05181454149830181, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 0.0, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 0.0 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720621658.103331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720621658.103331, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 27, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7283091430123799, 0.2716908569876201 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 57, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VXVCLS): > Chicago Board Options Exchange, CBOE S&P 500 3-Month Volatility Index [VXVCLS], retrieved from FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis" }, { "id": 25932, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "what-will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.629077Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.941543Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25932, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.629077Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 25932, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542901.224978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542901.224978, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.4 ], "centers": [ 0.56 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.75 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.43999999999999995, 0.56 ], "means": [ 0.5625409234837848 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.927705213345072, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542901.251358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542901.251358, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4078101562289671, 0.5921898437710329 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25931, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "what-will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-3-and-less-than-or-equal-to-4-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.541006Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:02.947992Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25931, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 3 and less than or equal to 4 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.541006Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 25931, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542864.447894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542864.447894, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.2 ], "centers": [ 0.38 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.45 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.62, 0.38 ], "means": [ 0.3725970716839038 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2431167344342142, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.16066607683687129, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.43673567711547195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542864.465999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542864.465999, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8543757338528293, 0.1456242661471707 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 0, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25930, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "what-will-trumps-lead-over-biden-be-greater-than-2-and-less-than-or-equal-to-3-on-july-15-2024-according-to-538s-national-polling-average", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.374532Z", "published_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.077396Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 18, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 8, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25930, "title": "What will Trump's lead over Biden be greater than 2 and less than or equal to 3 on July 15, 2024, according to 538's national polling average?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T20:50:26.374532Z", "open_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-10T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T16:50:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Donald Trump's lead over Joe Biden in 538's [national polling average for the 2024 presidential election](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) as reported on the chart for the date of July 15, 2024, when accessed by Metaculus on July 17, 2024.\n\nFor the purposes of this question, a positive value means a Trump lead, while a negative value means Biden is leading. For example, as of July 5, 2024, the value reported for July 5 is Trump 2.4 points ahead of Biden, which would be a positive value of 2.4 for this purposes of this question.", "fine_print": "* If the figure for July 15 is not available on July 17 when accessed by Metaculus it will resolve as the value for July 15 when Metaculus is first able to access it. If Metaculus cannot access the figure for July 15 before July 23 the question will be **annulled**.\n* If Trump's polling lead is below the lower bound or above the upper bound, the question will resolve as outside the respective bound.", "post_id": 25930, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542800.504602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542800.504602, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.35 ], "centers": [ 0.4 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.67 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.6, 0.4 ], "means": [ 0.4739667429356125 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.833038171544931, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.8405184883865575, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5530210864100233, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3340794910464137, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6845884789108578, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720542800.525917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720542800.525917, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 8, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.6959844490107735, 0.3040155509892265 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 18, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "On June 27, 2024, Joe Biden and Donald Trump held their first debate as part of the campaign for the 2024 presidential election. Biden's debate performance was [widely seen as poor](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-trump-june-debate-poll/), and prompted calls for Biden to drop out, including [from the New York Times editorial board](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and, as of July 5, [three House Democrats](https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4755497-seth-moulton-biden-presidential-race/).\n\nThe Biden team has reportedly been [taking action](https://www.cnn.com/2024/07/04/politics/biden-rising-tide-pressure-reelection-bid-analysis/index.html) to reverse recent perceptions, and has [so far insisted](https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4754840-biden-campaign-denies-dropout-rumors/) that Biden will not be dropping out. However, the New York Times [reported](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/03/us/politics/biden-withdraw-election-debate.html) that the Biden team has internally acknowledged that they must turn perceptions around quickly.\n\nAccording to [538's presidential polling average](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/) (when accessed on July 5, 2024), on the date of the debate Trump held a +0.2 percentage point lead in the polling averages, which has since widened to a +2.4 percentage point lead for Trump reported for July 5. The near-term polling trend may be critical as Biden weighs whether to stay in the race ahead of the [2024 Democratic National Convention](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Democratic_National_Convention), which is scheduled to be held August 19th through the 22nd." }, { "id": 25918, "title": "Will the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?", "short_title": "UK GDP average growth of 2.5% next few years?", "url_title": "UK GDP average growth of 2.5% next few years?", "slug": "uk-gdp-average-growth-of-25-next-few-years", "author_id": 121996, "author_username": "Bervie", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T19:29:56.025060Z", "published_at": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:24.670622Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "comment_count": 10, "status": "open", "resolved": false, "actual_close_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-02-15T00:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "open_time": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 14, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "default_project": { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" }, "category": [ { "id": 3689, "name": "Politics", "slug": "politics", "emoji": "🏛️", "description": "Politics", "type": "category" }, { "id": 3698, "name": "Economy & Business", "slug": "economy-business", "emoji": "💼", "description": "Economy & Business", "type": "category" } ] }, "question": { "id": 25918, "title": "Will the UK achieve an average annual GDP growth rate of 2.5% over the current parliamentary term?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T19:29:56.025060Z", "open_time": "2024-07-14T11:00:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-18T11:00:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-18T11:00:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2029-02-15T12:00:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": null, "resolution_set_time": null, "scheduled_close_time": "2029-02-15T00:00:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2029-02-15T00:00:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "open", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": null, "include_bots_in_aggregates": false, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The UK Labour Party set an ambitious target of achieving the highest sustained economic growth within the G7 in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Change-Labour-Party-Manifesto-2024-large-print.pdf) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nIn an [interview](https://www.itv.com/watch/tonight/1a2803/1a2803a9408) from the 27th of June, 2024, the Labour leader Keir Starmer [expressed his intent to achieve a growth rate comparable to the Labour government of the 1997-2010 period of about 2.5% each year](https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-growth-plans-analysed/) (this seems to have been true for the period of whole years 1998 to 2008 inclusive, but declined below 2.5% afterwards).", "resolution_criteria": "The question will resolve as **Yes** if the UK’s average annual GDP growth rate as reported by the [Office for National Statistics (ONS)](https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/timeseries/ihyq/qna) is 2.5% or higher for the duration of the parliamentary term resulting from the general election of July 4, 2024, based on financial years wholly within the parliamentary term. For the purposes of this question, 2025 will be the first year of relevance, and 2028 may be the last as the latest the next general election can be held is [August 15, 2029](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_United_Kingdom_general_election).\n\nThe average will be calculated as the average GDP change for all whole calendar years starting with 2025 and possibly ending with 2028 in which a Labour government is in power. Any year with a general election will not count unless the election is held on December 31 (as any change of government would happen after that day, in the following year).\n\nIf the current parliamentary term ends before January 1, 2026, the question will be **annulled**.", "fine_print": "The ONS seems to release GDP data for a quarter around 45 days after its end.\n\nFor details on various edge cases regarding resolution source availability, please see Metaculus's ambiguity and annulment policies [here](https://www.metaculus.com/help/faq/#ambiguous-annulled).", "post_id": 25918, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1761790146.979302, "end_time": 1764500916.676768, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1761790146.979302, "end_time": 1764500916.676768, "forecaster_count": 9, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.24 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.20045451037999984 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.46583116261132207, 0.701700440519318, 0.8423388801235393, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2047866778226079, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5766554926712493, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2814081443602781, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1728288937.061577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1728288937.061577, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 10, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.8537609638271974, 0.14623903617280265 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "forecaster", "vote": { "score": 2, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 23, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The UK Labour Party set an ambitious target of achieving the highest sustained economic growth within the G7 in its [manifesto](https://labour.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/Change-Labour-Party-Manifesto-2024-large-print.pdf) prior to its victory in the 2024 United Kingdom general election.\n\nIn an [interview](https://www.itv.com/watch/tonight/1a2803/1a2803a9408) from the 27th of June, 2024, the Labour leader Keir Starmer [expressed his intent to achieve a growth rate comparable to the Labour government of the 1997-2010 period of about 2.5% each year](https://fullfact.org/economy/labour-growth-plans-analysed/) (this seems to have been true for the period of whole years 1998 to 2008 inclusive, but declined below 2.5% afterwards)." }, { "id": 25878, "title": "Will exactly 2 or 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-2-or-3-starship-launches-reach-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.605767Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:06.792263Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 43, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25878, "title": "Will exactly 2 or 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.605767Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 25878, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534684.842605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534684.842605, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "centers": [ 0.62 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.65 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.38, 0.62 ], "means": [ 0.5992117988623269 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.6525656508175627, 0.0, 0.35843923208154005, 0.0, 0.030660934602948456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.04213280279121279, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.055079400708367705, 0.17610025324642237, 0.0, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 1.5710324508157636, 0.0, 0.9168088297974488, 0.0, 0.0, 1.7287651222345652, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.6100227003371742, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.40698478172960956, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534684.877797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534684.877797, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.5119990476149294, 0.4880009523850706 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 25877, "title": "Will exactly 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-3-starship-launches-reach-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.524069Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:48.552575Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 24, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25877, "title": "Will exactly 3 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.524069Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T20:57:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 25877, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534571.367867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534571.367867, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "centers": [ 0.35 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.6 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.65, 0.35 ], "means": [ 0.4144632278690973 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2743287127404717, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0697448631166007, 0.020262579152652255, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9019935026160223, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3258215873143926, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.5721306344340786, 0.0, 0.08633762966036206, 0.0, 0.23814444671793047, 0.12611610086941633, 0.0, 1.212321338599567, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.20549066020331952, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.460301366269204, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.314326790937948, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.989686100268989, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5187470996717524, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534571.405063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534571.405063, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 24, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7594550779090625, 0.24054492209093747 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 43, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 25876, "title": "Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-exactly-2-starship-launches-reach-reach-an-altitude-of-160-kilometers-by-sept-30-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.432644Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:28:53.925634Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 46, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:56:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25876, "title": "Will exactly 2 Starship launches reach reach an altitude of 160 kilometers by Sept 30, 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.432644Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:56:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T20:56:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T20:56:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "annulled", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\".", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as the number of SpaceX Starship launches that reach an altitude of at least 160 kilometers (approximately 100 miles) above the Earth's surface, by Sept 30, 2024.\n\nThe resolution will be based on official mission reports from SpaceX, and may also consider data or reporting from aerospace monitoring organizations or authorities, as well as other credible sources such as international media outlets.", "fine_print": "- In the event that a given Starship launch results in any type of failure prior to reaching the required altitude, so long as the Starship reaches such altitude substantially intact, it will count.", "post_id": 25876, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534737.136254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534737.136254, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.15 ], "centers": [ 0.39 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.56 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.61, 0.39 ], "means": [ 0.3839471009328512 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.4160730744622002, 0.8153249963609456, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0949648278649378, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.18689443354298343, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.08787151928995177, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5267121648213062, 0.7337519574005283, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.46890301972848125, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534737.178939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534737.178939, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.7377450690829197, 0.26225493091708024 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 45, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "SpaceX's Starship is at the forefront of the next generation of spacecrafts, designed with the ambitious goals of enabling human life on other planets, starting with Mars, and significantly reducing the cost of access to space. The fully reusable transportation system is envisioned to carry both crew and cargo to Earth orbit, the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Since its inception, the Starship program has been marked by rapid development and prototyping.\n\nIn 2024, SpaceX has continued its intensive testing and development schedule, aiming to perfect the Starship's capabilities for orbital flight, satellite deployment, and eventual deep space missions. As SpaceX gears up for future crewed missions, including NASA's Artemis program to return humans to the Moon and eventually to Mars, the ability of Starship to reach and operate in low-Earth orbit (LEO) is a critical step. Achieving LEO is essential not only for satellite deployments but also as a proving ground for the technologies and operational procedures that will enable longer-duration spaceflights.\n\nOn March 14, 2024, SpaceX's Integrated Test Flight 3 (IFT-3) saw Starship 28 briefly reach low-Earth orbit by achieving an altitude of 234 km before breaking up in the atmosphere upon re-entry.\n\nIn the days prior to IFT-3, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk tweeted \"Hopefully, at least 6 more flights this year\"." }, { "id": 25875, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-joe-biden-announce-before-july-31-2024-that-he-will-not-accept-the-democratic-partys-nomination-for-president", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.186803Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:08.307901Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 26, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25875, "title": "Will Joe Biden announce before July 31, 2024 that he will not accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.186803Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-29T15:59:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve as Yes if prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 31, 2024, Joe Biden or his campaign makes a definitive, public, official announcement to the effect that Joe Biden will not seek and will not accept the nomination of his party for another term as President of the United States in the 2024 cycle.\n\nTo qualify for a Yes resolution, the statement must be unambiguous and conclusive: it should leave no room for the possibility that Biden would accept the Democratic Party's nomination for President of the United States in the 2024 election cycle.\n\nIf such a definitive statement is not made prior to 00:00 Eastern on July 11, 2024, this question will resolve as No.", "fine_print": "Please note that Joe Biden releasing his delegates is not enough by itself to qualify for a Yes resolution. There must be a definitive, public, official statement that Biden will not be the Democratic nominee in 2024.", "post_id": 25875, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534559.962281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534559.962281, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.1 ], "centers": [ 0.16 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.25 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.84, 0.16 ], "means": [ 0.19738562230372655 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5966385346030553, 0.07068444313541063, 0.0, 0.6645775164919735, 0.0, 1.0283015878991864, 0.0, 0.3632031665845412, 0.0, 0.02510204527210512, 1.5679430946317585, 0.338546870001578, 0.0, 0.4770563933391733, 0.0, 1.3153857109076224, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3902975979842894, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6784271030428328, 0.0, 0.7384602599698556, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.4246972034401506, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03449404060253258, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -164.38561897747246, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -164.38561897747246 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534560.007798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534560.007798, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 26, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.9219266707062372, 0.0780733292937628 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 47, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "As of June 29, 2024, [Joe Biden](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joe_Biden?useskin=vector), the 46th and current president of the United States, is the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party for the [2024 presidential election](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election?useskin=vector), in which he faces a rematch against former president and current Republican presumptive nominee Donald Trump.\n\nOn June 27 2024, [the first presidential debate of the 2024 cycle](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_debates?useskin=vector#June_27_presidential_debate_(Atlanta)) was held in Atlanta. Biden and Trump were the only candidates to qualify for the debate, and both participated. \n\nBiden's performance was widely panned by the media; variously termed an ['unmitigated disaster'](https://news.sky.com/story/in-command-trump-and-stumbling-biden-face-off-in-first-presidential-debate-13160193), a ['catastrophe'](https://www.thedailybeast.com/why-bidens-debate-catastrophe-was-months-in-the-making), and ['disqualifying'](https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2024/06/us-election-debate-democrats-scramble-to-contain-fallout-after-biden-s-disqualifying-performance-against-trump.html), and it led to calls, including from the Editorial Boards of the [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/opinion/biden-election-debate-trump.html) and the [Atlanta Journal-Constitution](https://www.newsweek.com/ajc-georgia-largest-newspaper-joe-biden-exit-race-immediately-1919206), for Biden to abandon his bid for a second term. \n\nIn [the betting market](https://electionbettingodds.com/) and on Metaculus, [Biden's perceived chances of winning re-election](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11245/winner-of-2024-us-presidential-election/), and of [remaining the Democratic Party's nominee](https://www.metaculus.com/questions/11379/2024-democrat-nominee-for-us-prez/), tumbled in the aftermath of the debate. \n\nAs of June 29 2024, [the Biden campaign's position](https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-campaign-emphatic-he-will-not-drop-out-after-debate-disaster) is that Biden will not drop out of the race, and major Democratic Party figures including former president [Barack Obama](https://x.com/BarackObama/status/1806758633230709017) and current vice president [Kamala Harris have defended the president](https://www.newsweek.com/kamala-harris-defends-joe-biden-debate-1918553) on the basis that one poor showing in a debate does not negate the overall success of his first term.\n\nOn June 28, Biden acknowledged his poor performance in the debate, but [defended his re-election bid](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2024/06/28/democrats-urge-joe-biden-drop-out-election/):\n\n>On Friday afternoon, Mr Biden insisted in a defiant speech in North Carolina he could still win the election but told supporters: “I know I’m not a young man…I don’t debate as well as I used to.\n\n>“I give you my word as a Biden [that] I would not be running again if I didn’t believe with all my heart and soul I can do this job. Quite frankly, the stakes are too high.”" }, { "id": 25874, "title": "Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-time-gap-between-the-first-and-second-place-finishers-in-the-2024-tour-de-france-be-more-than-3-minutes", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.099486Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:19.588173Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 44, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25874, "title": "Will the time gap between the first and second place finishers in the 2024 Tour de France be more than 3 minutes?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.099486Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-07-23T19:37:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "The Tour de France is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The 2024 edition of the race started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on the time gap in the inidividal general ranking at the end of the 2024 Tour de France as reported on the offiical site.", "fine_print": "", "post_id": 25874, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534610.853042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.41000000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534610.853042, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.3 ], "centers": [ 0.41000000000000003 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.59 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.59, 0.41000000000000003 ], "means": [ 0.4391780983593784 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.13533528323661267, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.2479696983050695, 0.0, 0.8153249963609456, 0.04978706836786394, 0.0, 0.5829011906512116, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.6587413533585318, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.03808445092208783, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6848283749248791, 0.4160730744622002, 0.0, 0.0, 0.21526221595892353, 0.9669578817342911, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.2841245407359965, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.6858917353180821, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.01831563888873418, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": -28.63041851566409, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": -28.63041851566409 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534610.889834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534610.889834, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.658712255745095, 0.34128774425490505 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": -1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 44, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "The Tour de France is an annual men's multiple stage bicycle race primarily held in France, while also occasionally passing through nearby countries. It is the most prestigious and most difficult bicycle race in the world. The 2024 edition of the race started on June 29 in Florence, Italy, and will end in Nice, France on July 21.\n\nHistorical data, current form, and team support should be considered when making a prediction. Please note also that unexpected events, such as accidents or disqualifications, may affect the outcome of the race." }, { "id": 25873, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?", "short_title": "", "url_title": "", "slug": "will-the-real-time-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-increase-year-over-year-for-aug-2024", "author_id": 120279, "author_username": "Tom_Metaculus", "coauthors": [], "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.007851Z", "published_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "edited_at": "2025-09-05T17:29:25.434767Z", "curation_status": "approved", "curation_status_updated_at": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "comment_count": 47, "status": "resolved", "resolved": true, "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "nr_forecasters": 25, "html_metadata_json": null, "projects": { "leaderboard_tag": [ { "id": 32594, "name": "2024 Leaderboard", "slug": "2024_leaderboard", "type": "leaderboard_tag" } ], "site_main": [ { "id": 144, "type": "site_main", "name": "Metaculus Community", "slug": null, "header_image": null, "prize_pool": null, "start_date": null, "close_date": null, "forecasting_end_date": null, "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": null, "user_permission": "forecaster", "created_at": "2023-11-08T16:55:29.484707Z", "edited_at": "2025-07-18T17:28:18.838588Z", "score_type": null, "default_permission": "forecaster", "visibility": "normal", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "exclude_and_show" } ], "tournament": [ { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } ], "default_project": { "id": 3349, "type": "tournament", "name": "AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - 2024 Q3", "slug": "aibq3", "header_image": "https://cdn.metaculus.com/upscaled-4x-cover.webp", "prize_pool": "30000.00", "start_date": "2024-07-08T06:00:00Z", "close_date": "2024-10-17T00:00:00Z", "forecasting_end_date": "2024-10-06T18:00:00Z", "html_metadata_json": null, "is_ongoing": false, "user_permission": null, "created_at": "2024-06-25T19:40:43.075453Z", "edited_at": "2025-10-24T09:52:13.968580Z", "score_type": "spot_peer_tournament", "default_permission": "viewer", "visibility": "not_in_main_feed", "is_current_content_translated": false, "bot_leaderboard_status": "include" } }, "question": { "id": 25873, "title": "Will the Real-time Sahm Rule Recession Indicator increase Year-over-Year for Aug 2024?", "created_at": "2024-07-08T12:51:02.007851Z", "open_time": "2024-07-08T14:30:00Z", "cp_reveal_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "spot_scoring_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "scheduled_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "actual_resolve_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "resolution_set_time": "2024-09-06T14:02:00Z", "scheduled_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "actual_close_time": "2024-07-09T14:30:00Z", "type": "binary", "options": null, "group_variable": "", "status": "resolved", "possibilities": { "type": "binary" }, "resolution": "yes", "include_bots_in_aggregates": true, "question_weight": 1.0, "default_score_type": "peer", "default_aggregation_method": "recency_weighted", "label": "", "unit": "", "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "scaling": { "range_min": null, "range_max": null, "nominal_min": null, "nominal_max": null, "zero_point": null, "open_upper_bound": null, "open_lower_bound": null, "inbound_outcome_count": null, "continuous_range": null }, "group_rank": null, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME): > Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise.", "resolution_criteria": "This question will resolve based on reporting by the St. Louis Fed here: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME. The reported number for Aug 2024 must be greater than the reported for Aug 2023.", "fine_print": "The question will resolve according to the first value published for the period in question, later updates or revisions will be immaterial.", "post_id": 25873, "aggregations": { "recency_weighted": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534784.87498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ] } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534784.87498, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": [ 0.5 ], "centers": [ 0.65 ], "interval_upper_bounds": [ 0.8 ], "forecast_values": [ 0.35, 0.65 ], "means": [ 0.6135399087254851 ], "histogram": [ [ 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.15917957049677586, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.5898635470599414, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.027714863046207582, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7337519574005283, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.9230605451127694, 0.0, 0.3239984154485755, 0.0, 0.0, 0.06304339233244385, 0.0, 1.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.1857459851945321, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.7537061812234696, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.29775676667293344, 0.0, 0.6620474480579189, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3678794411714424, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 1.0305872123198692, 0.0, 0.9039144894018473, 0.0, 0.0, 0.3024401796247307, 0.0, 0.11399817092273035, 0.0, 0.0, 0.07804183443061195, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0 ] ] }, "score_data": { "peer_score": 0.0, "coverage": 0.0, "baseline_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_score": 37.85116232537298, "peer_archived_score": 0.0, "baseline_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_peer_archived_score": 0.0, "spot_baseline_archived_score": 37.85116232537298 }, "movement": null }, "metaculus_prediction": { "history": [ { "start_time": 1720534784.913204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null } ], "latest": { "start_time": 1720534784.913204, "end_time": null, "forecaster_count": 25, "interval_lower_bounds": null, "centers": null, "interval_upper_bounds": null, "forecast_values": [ 0.4975310874377291, 0.5024689125622709 ], "means": null, "histogram": null }, "score_data": {}, "movement": null } } }, "user_permission": "viewer", "vote": { "score": 1, "user_vote": null }, "forecasts_count": 46, "key_factors": [], "is_current_content_translated": false, "description": "According to [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME): > Sahm Recession Indicator signals the start of a recession when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate (U3) rises by 0.50 percentage points or more relative to the minimum of the three-month averages from the previous 12 months.\n\nThis indicator is based on \"real-time\" data, that is, the unemployment rate (and the recent history of unemployment rates) that were available in a given month. The BLS revises the unemployment rate each year at the beginning of January, when the December unemployment rate for the prior year is published. Revisions to the seasonal factors can affect estimates in recent years. Otherwise the unemployment rate does not revise." } ] }
